After T2 from Harman and Clark Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) joins Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) to lick their outright wounds and break down BETS and DFS options for the 2024 Valspar Championship.
https://www.rotoballer.com/pga
#pgadfs #fantasygolf #fantasygolfpicks #pga #pgatour #golfbetting
All right rot Ballers we are back sorry for the slight delay there we have to share a Twitter account with one of the better podcasts on a Monday night called preferred lines hosted by Joe ioni which just ended then another great podcast that you should be putting on your
Raadar for each week worth of listening is yours truly the Roa baller PGA show hosted by Yours Truly Byron the model maniac and co-hosted by my main man Spencer tof Sports agar what’s cooking brother you know I I will say Joe idoni does have one of the best podcasts but I
Don’t know that felt kind of like a Brian Harmon 900 Wiggles going on that the shot wasn’t going to be hit and we couldn’t get on air with it so I’m happy that we’re only nine minutes late with this I think that’s a pretty good segue
Into the tournament last week of I know both of us had Brian Harman you also had Windam Clark you also had sahit theala you had a bunch of Chasers there as is the case it seems like the last couple weeks I was fortunate enough to hit Scotty at the API but Scotty goes
Back to back at the Players gets the job done first person to do that at TPC sass uh any thoughts on that performance I’m just thinking how it was the first time his odds were unbal all week all year you know like you could have reached at
Him at 6 to1 six and a half you know he really wasn’t much lower than that they priced him at 5 and a half to one you know like it’s a comp now I heard someone else speaking about potentially books still getting massacred by the the average the average guy betting it but
Yeah maybe my buddy Austin would just bet Scotty Sheffer at 5 to one but gez dude you know like I’m sure they would welcome that money every single day sad times you know like when like when you mentioned Spence one of the craziest things you’ve always said to me is when
It’s your week it’s your week you need to make sure you capitalize and it’s frustrating when you don’t and we’ve just had if when if Scotty Sheffer doesn’t exist quom clar’s won a tournament in the last two weeks and being in the playoff for it another one
And Scotty just exists and now so be it you know like we’re in trouble because he’s just blocking up these freaking wins you know but I don’t see it lasting I don’t know what what’s your thoughts well I mean it’s hard to win golf tournaments at the end of the day like
We were talking a little bit before we even came on air that Players Championship was pretty much anybody else’s to win other than him and and Scotty’s the one that ends up clutching up in a lot of spots I know it wasn’t perfect down the stretch he did miss a
Few putts that he probably should have made um from a very short distance but I agree with you like at seven to one if they would have released him at that at the Players this is a much different Outlook in maybe it’s a oneman card for Scotty there trying to attack the board
There but um there is that unfortunate situation that public money’s always going to want to bet these favorites and everybody’s going to jump in to bet Scotty after he’s won a golf tournament so the books are going to still get hit with Scotty being the most bet player
Week in and week out so I kind of believe and I I’ve been on the record of saying this I don’t know if TPC Saw Grass is necessarily that course but I think at most venues that we’re going to play this year the fair price on Scotty
Is like 5.7 to one to six and a half to one in a lot of these spots and I have thought that 7 to one or even when it’s drifted a little bit further than that we’re not going to get that price anytime soon has been value and that’s
One of the reasons why I’ve gone to him uh two times this year hit one the other time he came in fifth but um you know now we’re going to get these prices to where unfortunately with sports books and and I think this is the the worst
Thing that comes into play is it’s not like they list Scotty at four and a half to one and everybody else drifts up the board you’re just going to get more of a hold percentage to where Scotty’s going to be four and a half to five to one and
Everybody else is going to remain exactly where they are for the most part so complicated betting boards for the time being but I agree with you it’s Scotty’s not going to win every single golf tournament I know the stats look incredible golf is a difficult sport to
Actually win we have seen this with Scotty’s profile for the last two years there are handful of wins that we can find there’s also a lot of second to six Place finishes thrown into the mix he just went back to back to kind of get himself out of a deficit from Dollar
Perspective if you’ve bet Scotty Sheffer to win $100 every tournament he’s played in you would have been losing your money until last week he’s gone back to back now so now it’s finally like I think five or $10 above it’s an unbelievable situation and it’s just crazy to think
That he’s done all of this stuff before the Masters like I don’t think he’s ever really done a big win outside of that it makes you almost wonder why you don’t just B him blindly almost throughout the first while you know but also at the same time you you you would only catch
Maybe one win right but this run him from Florida to the Masters it’s this seems to be the stretch where he consistently dominates yeah he does lose the match play this go around that’s been a tournament where he’s about as dangerous as it gets there but um I mean
There there’s a lot of good tournaments from that Florida to Augusta run yeah and and the waste before that Waste Management exactly his stuff it’s unbelievable to see what he does so I think maybe that’s worth investigating you know when he does play his tournament in the in the spring you kind
Of just bet Scotty who the heck knows I will have to see Byron I mean it’s kind of the argument that I was making at API for Scotty just because he’s six and a half or seven to one in every single tournament doesn’t mean you have to bet
Him you can pick and choose your spots like not every single six and a half or seven to one bet possesses the same long-term EV as another one there are better spots that we can pick and choose and I think it’s just being aggressive
When you do find that edge um I I don’t I still think it’s very difficult ult to win um I I I don’t know like he he may win The Masters and that would be that’s what I was thinking yeah I I would be shocked if he doesn’t win another one just
Because you know the way he’s doing it and now the P seems to be cooperating to a degree I would not be shocked if he wins a third tournament this year especially if he goes somewhere into Texas and I don’t know what his schedule looks like and just beats up on some
Random random field you know I don’t know if he’s going to be playing the Houston Cadence Bank open now at Memorial par that’s a great Golf Course for him again you know so we’ll see what he can get up to when it goes to that but H man I’ve I’ve typically had a
Thing for the the players spenc I hit Justin Thomas and cam Smith and I thought I was going to do it again this week man and it was so close so we’ll have to kind of hold on to our horses there and see what goes on from that perspective but you had a
Profitable week I had a profitable week that’s always a good start you know don’t hit a winner to still make money on the week that’s typically what I try and encourage to make sure that you’re at least recuperating your outright losses in your day-to-day Blue Collar placement and matchup bets Spence and I
Had a perfect situation with mat Pavan and Nikolai hoard where pavon would have not cashed a top 70 or a top 80 and he still won the matchup because hoard played bad enough to have that win so that was a beautiful pre weekend cach and that’s my favorite part about match
I mean Byron I I legitimately wrote in my Vegas report this week talking about chessen Hadley and Vincent Norman the very first sentence was this is going to most likely end in a miscut versus miscut Battle there’s really nothing to like about Hadley’s profile but you get this alternative end here with Vincent
Norman where he’s inside the bottom 10 for almost all the key metrics that I’m looking for in the week Hadley comes in 90 something at Place Vincent Norman is in the bottom 10 or 15 of the leaderboard it ends up being an easy win
At the end of the day and you know that those matchups have been always been my bread and butter and over 70% on the year right now uh continued that run last week with uh I think it was four- one five- one Spencer I mean there’s so
There’s so many wins at this point Byron I’m I’m losing track dud it’s it’s incredible because you’re betting the spread essentially you know these matchup bets are essentially spread odds basically minus 110 through minus 130 some plus money odds here and there for you to be doing it at that kind of clip
It’s it’s truly impressive you know because what the magic number is 53 and a half 54% rate of return at minus 110 I mean you can get to 52 and a half percent if you’re better than that you’re you’re you’re turning a profit year in and year out and you kind of set
A best like I’m not a person that lays massive juice on any of these matchups and every single situation is different depending on where you can find the value but I do think that sweet spot is usually in that plus 110 to minus 120
Range with it so um that is going to be at the end of the year if I am profitable it stems from the matchups being what took me over the edge not any of these other sectors when I’m able to hit an outright like Scotty at the API
Or anything like that then all of a sudden we can balloon this into a 50 60 unit profit year if you hit enough of those but uh the matchups are going to be what end up paying the bills and end up increasing the bank roll the way that
We want and you’ve been dominating the placement matchups been very break even for the most part I think I’m up a unit and a half or two units on the year but yeah um you know that’s another sector that I don’t think that attacking it over the top is necessarily the best way
To go with like so many plays but I think if you can find between one to five or six it’s usually like about how many have an advantage at the end of the day yeah dude and that’s an interesting thing that you mentioned there is because what I’ve typically done is put
My general placements in and we’ll get to the Val SP yeah shortly but this is always fun stuff chatting about you know not not a lot of people speak about the boring Blue Collar bets that me and Spencer love to chat about so this is our show we’re going to chat about it
For a second and maybe get you guys hooked because I would usually do my placement bets that the model kicks out and then I would have my outride card that I would typically do top fives on only now I’ve kind of gone to taking my outride card and also betting them for a
Specific bet whether it’s a top five a top 10 a top 20 kind of just looking at how they typically Faire in those markets usually the top 20 bets still going to be a nice Hefty plus 400 or something for a long shot like I’ve been betting lately so it’s been interesting
To see Spencer I’ve kind of gone away from my original model of just betting guys based off how they rank and now I’m betting them specifically how to like their top 10 top 20 top five I think that is where you can really find an edge you know like we’ve spoken about
The guys like Brian hman and and Adam Scott where you’re betting a top 10 you might as well just bet him top 10 instead of a top 20 because every time he’s top 20 he’s top 10 so I’ve kind of dug into that a bit more this year and
It’s really working out nicely I had the two top fives cash for me last week I I know that you’ve written that article talking about all the players is I don’t I should probably know the answer to this is that something that’s readily available updated weekly that people can
See here at rer the return on on bits yeah that’s in my pj stat Buffet oh perfect it’s been in there before it it was a 10 screenshot segment that we’ve now just condensed into leaving it part of the model I’ll put I’ll just put like the grand total in there and let
You kind of use the model for the rest of it but it’s in there and you can go and have access to that and see who’s being profitable in what and then alongside that I’ve got their historical finish rates you know there’s guys that are profitable in top 20 markets but
Only finishing in top 20 about 35% of the time 30% of the time but they’re doing it enough at odds nice enough to kind of take care of business there which is another fast fascinating thing to like look at so yeah DJ buff has got that for you that’s that invaluable
Information that like the deeper that you can dive into these boards it’s all about finding value at the end of the day and I think that it goes under the radar to an extent of how great that piece is of just being able to look at the model and figure out historically
Where players are finishing and um if you’re not doing so already definitely use the code maniac and and check that out uh it’s a very good piece yeah and if you do that and you grab the full premium package Spencer stuff’s involved there too you know we’ve we’ve got it
All so just not a not going to do a long sell on all that stuff but you might as well just grab the biggest package and include everything that’s premium at Rola I think that’s just the best bang for your buck speaking about best bang for your buck Spence let’s dive into 112
Xander sharley who enters this week with one of the highest floors in the world but the ceiling about is a tile tile withth in between so chat to me about him I think he’s he’s a fascinating Cas here I think he actually suits this course a slightly bit better based off
The The Long iron proximities that I typically see from him the form’s phenomenal we get an 112 what are your thoughts I haven’t added ownership in yet I I think that’s something that I’m going to really want to see here and and generally in these spots where he’s 11,000 plus dollars I
Think that lack of perceived win Equity that the public generates from him at at least in their mind of what this is makes him a very intriguing candidate here for all the reasons that you talked about like people are going to want to play Sam Burns because of the course history
They’re going to want to go to Justin Thomas because of this bounceback potential that he has at least shown historically at Copperhead when taking on this course but when I compared him to the rest of the field I mean he was massively in front of everybody in
Almost all the key areas I was looking he’s first place Mark for weighted scoring the expected Strokes gain total those those returns lap the field for me from pretty much any of the the key areas I was looking so um I know you have thoughts on Sam Burns this week I
Saw that you had an outright ticket on him um little bit different of a discussion being had here for DFS I don’t know where your mindset is for that but I I do think that as long as we get Xander in this field and he doesn’t
End up withdrawing this is the cream of the crop at the very top here and I’m hoping that because of what he provided last week that everybody’s getting sick of of him not closing out these golf events and then this higher price tag that we do have I’m really hoping that
There’s an ability here to create some maybe contrarian nature is not the answer to it um we’ll see where the ownership lands as I said but I I also don’t think he’s going to be the highest owned of the Thomas Burns and him group
And I think he like even if you look at any of the matchups in the space and my model is very very similar to these returns specifically when it comes to burns with it like he’s out to minus 200 in a lot of those spots and uh my model
Had him against Sam Burns at like minus 220 so I’m in agree with with a lot of the space there when it comes to what schley’s upside and safety would be here yeah it’s incredible I think he’s the only guy in the field that’s averaging a
Top 10 half his starts you know over the last 12 months which is insane the upside there is the the the medium upside is there I mean gez to finish inside the top 10 that amount of times is it’s like very impressive we we also just just I don’t mean to interrupt you
Byron but like we were also talking about this before the show there are a lot of players and I think this is something like at least interesting to note there are a lot of players that cannot close golf tournaments the reason why we talk about it with Xander more
Than almost anybody else is because he’s up there week in and week out so yes he is not putting the pieces together when he needs it most and and there’s something to be said from a mentality standpoint he needs to switch something when he gets into these moments and be
More aggressive or you know not play to lose in some of these spots I saw his quote that he’s playing to win always I would say that’s probably not the case watching some of these shots that he’s actually hitting they look very tentative but we’re only talking about
His lack of wi Equity it’s the same thing with fenal for all those years just because consistantly they’re jumping into the top five or the top 10 because the profile of the golfer of Xander is that highend and Klay had that for a while I don’t know what has
Happened to Patrick Klay he is going downwards with all of like the statistics trajectory that he’s on right now in the results but Xander is skyrocketing with all his metrics he is spener he he leads the field in in Strokes game total unsurprisingly yet you know like the
Likes of of like Cameron young isn’t that far behind and the results are just night and day you know Camy young hasn’t had a chance at winning this thing he’s the fifth most total Strokes gained and the same with spe and and and JT you know they third and fourth in total
Strokes gain but neither has really had a shot at winning a tournament this year you know like where Xander has like you said in the under the spotlight the the the not so squeaky wheel the one that doesn’t want to turn for him is is getting a lot of the grease and
Unfortunately that’s the case in DFS he needs to finish second for you got to find the five other guys that can finish first right and that’s the thing you got to pretty much assure thing 50% of the time is inside the top 10 which for DFS is exactly what you’re looking for just
Got to figure out the rest of the gang and I think two I’m willing to deal with that I think he’s you know pricing also like we’re we’re back down to $5,000 golfers again I think he’s very easy to fit in we we’ve had golfers in some of
These events that are stretching out into the 12, thousands thought this was a this was this was a price tag that you would have expected in a 6,000 and up field um I think he is too cheap I agree I asked Pat that on the twi Jun show earlier I
Like if you were if you got Xander price at 12K would you bat an ey you know like in this field he’s easily the Scotty Chef love last week you know from a consistency perspective so to get a $1600 decrease in price in the same slate like you said with the 5K range
They probably P him thinking it was a 6K and then just added the fives and you know it almost seems like they forgot because no one’s in Stratosphere when it comes to to this kind of stuff so we’ll see what he can get up to I’m assuming you’ll be playing him based off
Ownership what what 25 20% get you a little scared I’m gonna still play him at those totals um you just think he’s that solid this week I think he’s the I think he is the favorite in this field for a reason whether he actually reaches that pure upside and actually gets that return
Back is another story here but I I also found it as I was just starting to put together my player pool and look through this I am there’s it’s a kind of easy build this week for the reasons that I just talked about of of the pricing here
Um I don’t necessarily love some of these $10,000 and plus options that we have like I don’t know how big of a difference that there actually is between a sunj M and a Jordan spe or like any of those guys up there and you know I think Brian
Haron is going to end up being good good shock this week so I think fitting Harmon in is going to be easy enough also but I’m a little bit lower than consensus whether it’s right or wrong on the Sam Burns sort of group I I maybe for DraftKings it’s a different argument
To be had and I know you bet him Byron and I’ll let you talk about Burns and why you do like him in the outright Market but I I struggled with that outright price that we saw this week yes the the 12 one in my opinion Spencer
It’s just he’s been playing too good golf right now you know like the last two starts have been t-35 t40 or whatever had those been the top 10 he was wrapping out leading up to the week we would have seen a nine a nine to one for history probably you know with and
That’s the thing the course history is what tips it and there’s not a lot of you know the course history Rel relationship at this venue to all the players isn’t that strong compared to like you know to average but but for Sam Burns that’s a specific guy that just
Plays very well in this golf course I mean he’s last he’s worst finish in the last three years is sixth with two wins you know like it yeah I there may be no correlation to success for most of the field but some of the high-end production whether it’s Paul Casey going
Back to back or Sam Burns going back to back Burns has shown a propensity to love this course that is a fact that we cannot argue and I I do agree with your general sentiment the 45th at the players and the 30th at the Arnold Palmer those are top 10
Finishes without implosion taking place on Sunday for him um slow start at the Players turns it on on Saturday and then at the very end of the round that the players he ends up falling apart again I guess it worries me a little bit that he’s not putting the pieces together at
The very end when we’re having to pay a 12 to one price because it does feel like this is baking in the form it’s baking in the course history it’s taking all the high-end metrics of it and there are some things that my model’s going to
Like from him too he’s inside the top five of projected overall um finish for me at this course but I don’t know Byron I I I’m probably going to Fat him this week and maybe I end up with egg on my face at the end of the
Day but I just think that there’s other routes that we can go whether it is a Brian Haron who’s gonna also be popular or like I keep bringing up sunj M that’s kind of my secret sauce of I think sunj starting to Trend I think the numbers
Are finally starting to turn around for him and it’s been quiet and really outside of the century there’s been nothing that you can point towards that you would love but um if you just look at his last two starts that he’s put together 4.8 Strokes Tia green uh
Average o over those two starts that is going to massively Eclipse that negative 1.38 he had gained over the previous five so I know I’m skipping sections there and we’re kind of moving into the nines from that but uh that’s kind of my mentality to try to get different is I
Think sunj is going to be an under the radar candidate that really does possess a ceiling I love sunjay from a DFS perspective if he comes in you know lower than 10% this week I’m I’m in I love what he can do at this course I love what he’s he’s figuring out again
You know he makes tons of birdies when he gets it rolling I think he’s figured it out you know we had a bit of a a tough time leading up to the API and then we kind of saw him breakr there and one more thing on Burn Spence the two
Bad finishes were at the API and the players we get a a valpar championship now you know like it’s not like we we all know this about Sam burns the majors the big boy events not necessarily gonna be showing up for you as much as he does
At these these like slap and giggle kind of situations right I know we’ve got some big names in here but not nearly the biggest you know and not nearly enough so I think I like his chances in a smaller field event and of course he’s played that you know exceptionally well
So old sunj interesting at 94 I love him talk to me about Tony Spencer I think he’s a fascinating fascinating situation yeah I’ve got Tony feno ranked from a safety perspective using like some last year’s data still first in the model wow and that’s it’s because you know we
Haven’t really changed too much from a ball striking t a green standpoint the guy’s Elite you know like it’s just it’s too good and at this kind of venue I think he’s going to really piece it together what we’re going to see a minus minus 10 I think Ian was
Mentioning what we want to do about the winds so that would be a DFS situation with a a wave stack but if things get tricky and it requires a minus eight I kind of like Tony there you know in a smaller field like this so I don’t know what’s your take on Tony
Fena my model’s all over the place on fow so I run it three different ways I run it for safety upside and overall 16th overall six for safety which is going to take a lot of the stuff that you’re talking about it also liked them in that direction 35th overall for
Upside that worries me ever so slightly in gpp contests um I ran a little bit more putting than the average person and and I know that this is a very heavy T to Green Return course and uh that return is going to show but even if you look at past iterations of this
Tournament Strokes game putting is 3 four five% more impactful here than a generic course on tour 100 outside the top 140 for me in expected putting that’s going to come from the recent putting and even the similar green complexes so I looked at any course that kind of features that Bermuda over
Seating that we’re going to get here and there was just a lot of red and dark red in my model I I don’t know what to do with him Byron because the ball striking you’re G to love and I I do think that if this tournament plays closer to that I don’t
Know eight underpar range that you’re talking about he becomes a lot more intriguing when he doesn’t actually have to make putts but on the flip side of that answer like there are red flags in that profile maybe more so than a lot of weeks for him so um I don’t know like
Even my wind grade like if if if this does playing as a play as a win test he’s outside the top 90 for me and expected wind yeah I don’t know I don’t know it’s it’s all about ownership I guess because I’m not betting him you know I think
He’s one of the worst Investments across the board outside of the Winds you know like that’s the only only like area he’s kind of gaining over the last 12 months which is crazy to see someone that isn’t Spencer Nick Taylor I think he’s he’s a fascinating subject this week $9,100 I
Saw some people bitching on Twitter about that price tag for him isn’t this hilarious we got M Le at $9,000 and and everyone’s like you know that’s cool he’s at 9k now he can let him cook there even though you know the the t2 was his
Only good finish this year I mean we’ve got nothing better than a 21st outside of that you know like everyone overreacting to one round of goal from the guy and just tough tough tough times so who’s who’s rounding out the bottom of your of your ninja who is minu
Overpriced in your opinion and um who’s who’s giving you some some good value for old $99,100 Nick Taylor I mean probably minwu’s marginally overpriced but I think for him it always comes down to ownership ship minwoo possesses a big ceiling on the upside metrics that he puts together every single time and the
Par five scoring and some of those long iron proximities can look really good for him so I I’d be curious to see where the ownership lands with him I think Nick Taylor’s fine like let me flip this back to you I guess let’s just take let’s not include ownership here
We’ll talk about this later in the week let’s just say Cameron young we’ll we’ll exclude sunjay because we’ve I’ve already talked about him but like Cameron young fenal Nick Taylor min is there a range or is there a order that you like those four Nick
Taylor Cameron young SJ man Wu is how I would play them where would uh where would fenale fit into that mix I would say feno fits in probably second or third I would definitely play Nick Taylor over all of them I think Fina there’s like a gang of
Like 2A 2B 2C situation with Camy Young F now and IM we both we just haven’t cracked the top five you know that’s the thing with those three is they they just not doing enough to get inside the top five and this week we need those from
These guys at this price point so all three of them not very good top fers you know compared to if Nick at least gets their double digits of the time yeah I I don’t have a problem with Nick Taylor I I think he’s a nice upside
Target is that is that how would how would you rank those those guys probably Cameron young I seem to have a problem with him that I I always want to keep going back um I think it’s very close between Nick Taylor minw Le and Tony feno it’s kind of going to be an
Ownership dependent answer I’d probably say Nick Taylor second minwu Lee third Tony fenal fourth just because I I have some worries about fenale yeah that they validated Spence you know they’re out there I mean the Ping is just so bad dude it’s just it’s like very bad we’ll see though I don’t
Know I mean since the Mexico open didn’t he kind of resort back to a bit more like upright putting and and still sucks but you know not as bad yeah I don’t know it’s ownership dependent in that range I think that’s very true you know whichever way that leads you go with it
You know I don’t I don’t really have that big of a take for anyone really in that range outside of Harmon I kind of think that sunjay Cameron young Harmon and that’s is what pricing would show also this is not Reinventing the wheel here I think those are the three best
Players I I’m curious to see where the ownership lands on all them kind of stated at the beginning I think Harmon is good chalk I assume he’s going to be chalky and I think it’s good chalk at the end of the day but I would say those
Three are the best and then just at the bottom there it’s going to come down to ownership I was contemplating betting hman top 20 or top five went with him for a top five just because I bet him outright as well and that number the RO
To Bard a Discord grabbed the 35 this morning Jesus it’s it’s gone now you know like h on Monday nights you can’t even speak about odds the way you bet them like not even 12 hours ago it’s unbelievable what’s going on in this world that we bet it’s I I will say and
I mean that’s one of the things that we are very transparent about like we will drop the numbers into Discord and um we will show the number that is being bet at the time of it and try to make it as readily available there are some trying
To figure out how to say this politically correct um there are a lot of bets I have seen post posted out there at numbers that are outrageous and maybe the 35 to1 that you’re talking about with O’Brien Harmon but the first mention of it is like 12 hours after
That point like I get it allows more people to enter your card but and maybe even if you bet that person that doesn’t help anybody if it wasn’t mentioned at the time so yeah um the outright market and how many winners people have hit that’s a real sticky topic because
Everybody wants to claim more winners with it and it’s really simple and and as we move into the $8,000 section Doug gim is a very good example of that also D Doug gim’s Price has absolutely plummeted and unfortunately when my numbers came out I guess there were some
80 to ones in the market and um I didn’t have access to that or at least that’s what I’ve seen with it and then you know I still thought he was a value at 55 to1 and that number is even starting to diminish from there but yeah there’s a
Difference between 80 to 55 there and there’s going to be a difference from 50 to if he drops into the 40 range but we have to be very cautious as an industry like to not give numbers that are not out there anymore if it’s never been mentioned before it doesn’t do anybody
Any good yeah it’s crazy dude it’s it’s absolutely crazy like you’re typing up a tweet just to send out what you bet and by the time you got it all typed out it’s it’s gone you know like it’s a hard it’s a hard moving Market that’s always
Going to be the problem in matchups and and outrights and all these things it’s sports betting is numbers move quickly and that’s why sports betting is a really difficult Market when you’re giving out picks and it’s really challenging from a article perspective I know you run into that same problem in
Yours as I run in my Vegas report it’s just by the time that my Vegas report releases on Tuesday a lot of that is going to be gone but it doesn’t mean that we didn’t talk about it in Discord it doesn’t mean that we didn’t post it
At the time on Twitter um it still is helpful but it becomes less helpful as the week goes on so it’s kind of what I always say like whether you’re using your model or my model there’s a really nice way to be able to use this data for
Yourself and try to figure out where you think the advantages are above anything else because once you can start even if it’s not as sophisticated as let’s say you and I would be doing with it where we’re like giving a price of this is where I have proper and this is where
The number is I still think if you’re building the model out and you’re seeing where players are ranking for you it’s still a simple enough process to say okay I have value here based off of where this person is and um that alone is so much better than somebody who’s
Just blindly taking picks so I would always say try to like use numbers whether it’s from us or a different data provider or whatever it is uh I would love for you to use ours at the end of the day I I I think we’re doing you know
And we’re trying to dive into this information as much as possible with it and and leave it as a a betable commodity tool for everybody but I I know that’s a tangent we’ve gone on like 10 different tangents to start this show but uh you know it is what it is Byron
Spence I’ve listened to so many other shows and everyone’s speaking about the same stuff so if we can chat about some some nuances of betting and you can help me get better I can maybe help you get a bit better and we can all help you know everyone that’s listening get better
That’s mission accomplished in my opinion I think there’s a lot to betting more than just you know listening to us chat about the picks you know like I think that’s really important and I’ll never cut you short when you’re talking the spitting that good sweet stuff Spence you know I love listening
To chat about the nuances so let’s speak about the nuances in the eights though like you mentioned yeah we got guys like Doug gim who’s maybe a better bet than a better DFS play again this week we’ve got Christian bade notes you know he’s one of the best iron players in the
Field it’s just incredible to see he’s doing this weird stuff Bey where he’s Spencer he’s psycho he he has these nine holes where like at the cognizant looks like he was going to take over the tournament and then misses the cut the following nine we’ll have to wait and
See I’m really excited to see he’s actually working with some speed training with with the fit fit golf fit for golf and I think they mentioned that he finally broke 170 miles per hour ball speed around TPC s grass you know like the tour average is like
174 you know like to top out at that P that that ball speed is incredible so if he can literally after we spoke about this last week I see that they actually working on their ball speed which is great so give me your eights your 8K Darlings yeah I’ve already bet Doug gim
At plus 210 for a top 20 Doug gim has got zero top FES just by the way folks 4% of them are top 10 and then 36% top 20 rate you know like interesting usually you see a a progress from like double double double from 510 20 Doug
Gim it’s just a giant giant jump to to 20th you know for top 20s the upside for him is not necessarily there so I’m curious as to to what your take is on on these guys in the hate Spence I would tend to agree like my
Model loves Doug him this week I I would tend to agree with you though that he’s probably a better bet than anything else I let’s see where the ownership lands because we we gave very similar answers last week on certain players and they weren’t nearly as popular as I thought
They were going to be and they became playable at a certain points so I think if if Doug gim can reach that territory where the percentage isn’t outrageous we can trickle back to this conversation in 24 to 48 hours and you know re-evaluate this situation I would also like to see
Where the ownership lands on Aaron Ry my model really liked him he was kind of the darling last week of the low price players and now all of a sudden we get this massive increase for him in price tag but I think if you look at the outright movement that he possessed at
The Players this was a golfer that at some of the sharper books in the in at least that I could find whether it’s offshore or legal he got down to like 70 to1 80 to1 to win the players and you know he never necessarily flirted with anything that was meaningful there like
A 35th Place finish I think was great for what you paid for DraftKings with it and it was a fine return maybe from the ownership perspective not necessarily as good there but I think Aaron Ry is very intriguing um I’m probably going to bite the bullet unfortunately and play Adam
Hadwin I know some of the recent stuff has been bad but if we want to talk about players that have won like Burns going back to back and Paul Casey going back to back I mean just throwing Adam hadwin in there and like all of a sudden
He would be sandwiching all of that with a Taylor Moore thrown into the mix there so he’s a player who’s won out here before he’s been very Boomer bust at this tournament miscut 2023 7th in 2022 couple Mis cuts the 12th the first like it’s all over the map for him and we’re
Even getting a very similar return when you’re looking at his recent results miscut at the Players 52nd at the API fourth at the Genesis the six at the American Express um that’s not necessarily like I think the ownership is going to matter because when you start taking these Boomer bus plays and
The ownership gets too high all of a sudden it’s like well there’s no point in playing them at that at that moment because all the leverage that you’re creating is being taken away from their volatility but I do think he possesses a ceiling that is at least worth noting at a low enough
Percentage I don’t know I I found the rest of this range to be very convoluted in a lot of ways like what are you doing with Keith Mitchell what are you doing with Eric Cole um what are I saw Maverick mcnean chat what are we doing
With Maverick mcne like there’s a lot of intriguing options here and and I do tend to think that there’s some value to be found in this section with actual tangible win Equity that we can grab but I mean talk to me a little bit about those guys if you want to talk about
Like Kean and Bo hostler in the mix I I think they’re also interesting names to discuss I think I’m in on MAV at 81 $100 he seems like he’s he’s playing some really solid golf right now he just can’t to Evan’s Point can’t hang tight when the chips are in you know like
Whatever his position is inside the top 10 going into a Sunday that’s the best it’s going to be in my opinion with him maybe if he’s outside of the top 20 he can have a back door top 10 situation but it just seems like some of these
Guys are just leaderboard shy and I think he’s one of them I mean for him to make 16 bars you know that just shows something off with your game you know like he’s a great butter at some point you got to roll something in so that’s
Just frustrating to me but at his price at $8,100 I’m in I’m also in I’m out on Keith Mitchell he also Spencer just doesn’t get the top fives across the line you know like he’s just not a top five guy for me I’d rather go to like
Eric Cole I’d rather go to Keegan Bradley who I I’ve seen you know inside the top five at least flirting with wins and when they get in the mix can hang Keith Mitchell everyone loves him he always comes in super owned you know the the the safety there is awesome but it’s
Just it’s like what are we really getting from him you know I think they all just people falling in love with how good of a driver he is and how he’s played well at certain venues in the past he’s he’s new Keith Mitchell now he’s casmier Keith he’s chilled putting
The sweater on not getting too sweaty on a Sunday and just hanging around the top 10 you know I think that’s my take on him I um I like Eric Co and Keegan Bradley quite a lot Keegan Bradley in particular I think as a DFS play you
Know I’m not going to be betting him at any of his odds or anything because he’s not playing the greatest golf but I think he fits the SC really nicely and it could unlock what he gets up to well yeah I think with Mitchell it just
Comes down and and I have fallen victim to this quite frequently over the past year or two number one projected total driver in my model for this course and I think that’s going to pop in everybody’s model when they run it that way really poor Scrambler of the ball so for him to
Find success and it doesn’t mean that it can’t happen the proximity numbers are going to have to be good this week and there are some intriguing metrics in my model where he has positive trajectory for this course with his weighted proximity from the ranges that we’re
Looking at this week so I I think that if he pops he has the potential to pop maybe in a bigger way than some of some of these courses would allow him to but I mean he’s bad around the green he’s bad with the putter he’s bad in all the
Scrambling metrics like um I have played this game numerous times where he has led the field or been top five in the field in ball striking and then after Friday I look at the leaderboard and you’re like okay he’s in the top five no he missed the cut yeah that’s the thing
With him he’s he’s just so sporadic unfortunately for someone that drives the ball as well as he does it’s frustrating not to see him get more up to the top of the leaderboard because that takes so much [ __ ] out of the equation you know like if your ball’s in
The middle of the Fairway you’re not having to worry about trees and rough and and nonsense know but yet he’s spoiled with a luxury of of um talent and somehow can’t quite get it across the line hopefully he can um Spence let’s let’s get into it
Sevenk I think this is a this is a range that I kind of like a few guys in here almost as much as I do the six the eights it’s going to be very interesting to see what these guys can do there’s upside abounds for random guys like Adam
Shank yeah you know I think Billy hell had a few miscuts here and there but I’m going to be back on him again you think this golf course suits up nicely for Brandon Todd we missed the cut at the Players last week after a T6 at the API
I would probably go back to Brenan Todd at a course like this where you just got to scramble and it’s distance off the te is hardly penalized you right Spencer like you know I think you can see guys that just are average drivers of the
Ball keep it in the Fairway are going to be in the mix and then for some reason I’m getting the model’s not suggesting anything but just kind of getting a tingly feeling about sep Striker you know the maniac tingles are going off on him I’m getting a bit of a Vibe compared
To what we see from the guy at like the John Deere classic I don’t know why I’m kind of feeling like he’s in that kind of form again but at a positional course that you just got to keep your driver in play and then do the rest from there I
Don’t mind SE ster this week at $7,900 and then Lucas Glover Spencer my final little guy lovec Clover you know I think he’s super safe All Things Considered and I think what you can find from Glover is is just that that TI green play it’s just the lower scores get like
Worse they are the better I think lover suits the golf course because he can just hit it stiff and I think with the putter it’s still hasn’t looked great this year he’s had one bad outing I think the rest of the time it’s all just been bad you know like usually Glover
Can put himself completely out of a tournament with the broomstick I feel like it’s been okay you know and I think if we go back to a course like this where we can maybe see some putting regression for Glover those are my guys you know there’s Daniel Bergers and and
And the likes which I’m sure you’ll chat about I don’t know if this is NE my model loved Brian Harmon last week and you know it was rightfully so with that answer we don’t always get it correct necessarily but I talked about him being
A player at the API that was one of the biggest fade candidates for me and he produced ball striking returns in a 12th Place finish at the API that really made him intriguing going to a course like TPC sass where all of a sudden all that upside and all of those
Statistical returns really came into play and I’m not saying this is necessarily the same spot because my model doesn’t get as highend with this return as we got with Harmon but you might be on to something with sep straa like my model didn’t necessarily love
Him for it but I mean look at what he’s done off the T really since this year he’s gained an every single start he gained 8.4 Strokes te to Green last week my model did not like him at the Players Championship I was lucky enough to fade
Him in a matchup that I was correct on and that’s a very hard thing to do when you come in 16th Place with it so yeah um you know I got very lucky on that end of the equation I faded him in an in tournament matchup and I kind of just
Hit it on the right day with it I guess but um straa has some intriguing returns if all of a sudden my model thinks he’s a better course fit here so I think straa makes a lot of sense and and really more than anything when we’re talking about the 7,000 range this is
Not your prototypical 7,000 range I don’t have as many players that we’re GNA have here up in front of me but like what is this there’s probably TW 12ish players yeah 13 I think there’s 13 players as I quickly count it um you know there’s only 13 players in the
$7,000 range so you know on a lot of these turn you have a much deeper player pool to pick from I think straa makes some sense you talked about shank I’m in on him um Lucas Glover the models are going to love him from an upside
Perspective there I think it is a better course fit for Brendan Todd so I don’t necessarily have any answers that would deviate from away from what you have talked about the only play I will mention and I know I seem to be on my own Island here with I haven’t seen
Anything like really great mentioned about this guy I saw I I don’t know if if you saw this Byron uh one head-to-head bet so far and this may be shocking to that are listening out there I gave Davis Thon minus 110 over web Simpson that was over at bet
Online we crushed that it’s up to minus1 now and I know data golf is putting out this thing that web should be the favorite web has some fine off the tea returns at these Club down spots I worry about web’s ability with the approach game I worry about some some of the
Scrambling numbers not being exactly where they need to be and that’s the biggest concern I have for him so I don’t think it’s betable anymore at this one minus 137 number but uh Davis Thompson was a golfer for me that I bet him at 100 to one to win this contest I
Kind of think that maybe very similar to a ludvig oberg or a Cameron Davis this natural length that they have that you think you’d want to play them at these like bom and gouge fests it’s actually better when you put them at these Club down venues and they can use their ball
Striking in some of these ways so my model really like Davis Thompson it’s not going to come without risk but he was the biggest upside climber for me that I had in a lot of areas he was inside the top 25 in almost every single like meaningful return that I looked at
This week um the floor has some question and I think that’s why like even in a head against web there’s probably more red flags there than I normally would want to have yeah um but I think Thompson’s very from a gpp perspective specifically if everybody wants to hold
On to these like couple bad results that he’s put together recently I think the ceiling is much higher than the public is going to believe it to be even if he doesn’t reach that and he misses the cut like there there there’s actual upside to be found in this profile I totally
Agree I’ve got him sitting 19th at 7,000 flat Spencer what do you do when how many par FES we got we got three par FES this week week right I think we have four or is it four five par 3s I think it’s five par 3s four par uh fives okay
So for just the sake of the argument here when you have courses that go from five four par fivs to three par fivs how do you how do you grade your par five scoring in that instance do you is it course specific or would you go less par
Five scoring because even though scoring on those holes is important there’s less of them so there’s just less opportunity for those guys to take advantage of being a good par five scorer I I think it’s course dependent I typically look at long-term returns from par three par
Four par five scoring how correlated it is to win the tournament how correlated is it to coming top five top 10 top 20 the players that miss the cut where are they struggling so that’s usually where I work my secret sauce with it to try to uh figure out exactly how much weight
Like my weight at scoring inside of my model is essentially par three fours and fives thrown together just in a very recalculated fashion with it um it was interesting like I know Taylor more dominated the par fives last year towards his victory I didn’t necessarily see some massive return in expectation
For par five scoring like at least based off of what you would expect here um it was like a 40 30 30 sort of split between the fives and then the fours and the threes there um I think for some tournaments you get this really massive increase that and it doesn’t even mean
In par fives it could be in a different area of the board but I I thought this was rather simplistic returns kind of ac across the board in a lot of areas and that’s what makes this tournament so weird like I wrote about this in my roto
Baller article which is the most boring bad answer that you can really give but like the players that are the best for me in Strokes gain total and now there’s a recalculation that comes into the mixed there so that’s not just saying who’s the best Strokes gain off the tea
Who’s the best Strokes gain approach who’s the best Strokes gain around the green I’m recalculating it specifically for this course and then running the return that way but like the players who are the best Strokes gain total have been historically the ones here that are providing the best success and it’s a
Boring answer to give I understand that but like sometimes we don’t need to convolute this process as much as we do that’s basically the summary of my Sam Burns bet is it’s just it’s I’m not trying to make this overly complicated and that makes the makes total sense the
Best guys playing at certain golf courses there’s certain golf courses that no matter how well you’re playing if you don’t have a specific skill set can ruin that you know like that form is not non-existent but at this venue if you playing well no matter where it will
Translate you because it’s a shorter golf course it’s not just because you got tons of distance doesn’t mean you’re just not allowed to play well yeah you know you’re just going to have to hit different clubs off the tea so it’s an interesting golf course in that
Department Spencer and I kind of I like that you know it’s it it makes tons of sense just find who’s playing well play them and if there’s a bit of course fit course history beautiful add that to the mix um for instance Andrew Novak betting
The guy top 10 plus 900 let’s go enters the players week with three consecutive top 10 I believe and then misses the cut it’s the players it’s a big tournament it’s a big boy event the the top 10 finishes cognizant Mexico and a bit of Phoenix now the players that’s a
Different ballpark to those other three tournaments right so I think going back to him for another top 10 year after a bad players is totally cool with me he’s top 10 at a at a great price too you know I think that’s a nice way to take
Advantage of his of his like upside that he presents without like getting too involved in I think he’s still going to be quite chalky at $6,700 so I just find myself betting the chalky golfers and then just playing pivots like not perennially I don’t know how that’s
Worked out for me but it is the way so Spencer Adam senson $ 66600 entering this week what has he done the last three tournaments talk about a course fit dude yeah this is the Boomer bus profile that that I think from a gpp perspective at low enough
Ownership he’s 15th for me on upside yeah yeah like when you look at the overall he’s 34th that’s still a great return safety 64 that’s going to come into play with the miscut miscut miscut that he’s put together um I actually think the $6,000 range in general is
Super enticing yes like there are players here that and I think it the reason for this is that We Shrunk The $7,000 range down so much that a lot of these $6,000 golfers should every bit be in that 7,000 and up range I could name 10 players here that I think are
Playable in some fashion um from 6900 down to 6,000 and there’s probably even more than that all right rattle let’s go I’ll I’ll confirm when when you ding one for me Victor Perez no Kevin Yu yes Andrew Andrew Novak yes chest Hadley yes uh Taylor pendrith has that same Boomer bus
Profile as senson I think senson and pendrith are the two very intriguing ones there I think k H Lee makes a lot of sense Ben Silverman graded well yes uh we can save Bud collie for a second I’d like to hear your thoughts I have such limited data I don’t necessarily
Trust my returns on him but uh Carson young yep uh Grayson Sig Chan Kim Bryce Garnett uh Jonathan Vegas down at the very bottom Joseph bramlet like I that’s more than 10 players I just talked about but like to me any of those golfers are underpriced and that’s where constru
Ruction is very difficult for me this week because I love Xander at the top and it makes me feel like I’m almost forced to have to fit somebody up there with him but like maybe it’s just the Xander sunj Harmon massively overweight to those three and then try to fit fit
And mix and match them in all different forms and then you kind of dip down into the $6,000 range to me is the $7,000 range just an extension of it so I think there’s a lot of really good values down there um I do think it gets probably
Progressively worse as we move down the list like the $5,000 golfers I’m not quite as bullish on as all those names I just said and and I think that’s fine I I think from like the players I’ve talked about it’s going to be very easy to construct a player pool based off of
This but um I mean anybody else that you want to add to that mix anybody else that you want to double down on I want to make the people aware of Ben Silverman I think he’s going to be very good dude and I think this kind of a
Golf course potentially suits suits what he does even better you know I think he’s an accuracy over distance kind of guy off the te at this venue we should see him Thrive I mean he’s played well of coures like Mexico which doesn’t even really suit his skill set so we should
See him play some good golf 6,500 bucks Bud KY all you have to do is watch TV to know that the guy is a baller you know like got a little nervy with the putting over the weekend you know when he was right in the mix that’s going to happen
To just about anybody especially I mean you’re playing in your third tournament as a professional in three or four years and you’re sitting tied for the lead on Saturday at the cognizant CL the Honda you know like Lord knows you were talking about the cognizant four years
Ago but that you get the gista like that is insane like he’s got no business playing that good of golf that soon so at some point he’s going to get comfortable with that feeling at the top because he’s found himself playing good golf so I’m in on bud kley for sure and
Then right underneath him is Alexander Bor he was one of my favorite DP World Tour guys coming into the into the year hasn’t quite figured his stuff out and I think he’ll he’ll get it together on this kind of a golf course it suits his accuracy I think it suits his his irons
You know I think bit more difficult scoring conditions for him will definitely go a long way so love him in that department and then we kind of just waiting for for guys like Ryan Mo who I’ve I played him last week at I think $5,100 or $5,300
Us in my value plays article he plays these short Florida tracks well I don’t know what his deal is he made another cut at the Players Ryan Mo you know like he’s not a good golfer but he does well yes he’s a UNLV baby let’s go so Spence
What do you think of Ryan Moore then I I will answer the Ryan Moore question I want to ask you about one other player that I mean I named 30 players in the $6,000 range and I glossed over this name I think from an upside perspective that there’s some Intrigue around him I
Faded him on Sunday in a matchup I took McKenzie Hughes over him uh give me your thoughts on Sammy valaki very quickly and then I I’ll give you one on Ryan Moore I don’t know about at this golf course I think I think he’s a big boy I
Think you know the Mexico is what he would Thrive at you know the farmers Mexico Big Boy golf courses maybe like the Valero you know I don’t know about I don’t know the Valero like a I don’t know something a bit more that rewards his distance I don’t know if
He’s going to catch it here so can can I at least tell you what I liked about his profile and it doesn’t come without risk yeah I mean obviously in this range yeah inside of the top 20 for me in weight of proximity from 150 plus yards thought
That was a very interesting return there when I looked at the total driving so that would be like a recalculated total driving I agree he loses a lot of his strengths in certain areas but uh inside of the top 50 for me and expected total driving inside of the top 40 when I
Added in that off the te approach with it the win play is bad from historically of what I’ve been able to pull the weighted Strokes gain total would be good like I think players like him players like um even Ryan Moore that you just brought up like these
Are I want to say high ceilings I mean they’re they’re $66,000 golfers for a reason but I think they’re higher ceilings than to be down in this uh $6,000 and I agree with Kevin U like Kevin Yu can pop in a really big way at this tournament so like you have a lot
Of names like that to where if they put the pieces together there’s top 10 equity and then like specifically for a name like Kevin youu just because he was mentioned like you’re probably not like Kevin Yu Andrew Novak Taylor pendrith Adam senson uh maybe KH Lee and like Ben
Silverman that would be the group of like if you told me that they went out in top five this tournament a few of those that’s kind of the group that I would expect the highest ceilings for yeah and they’ve they’ve shown it too you know Kevin we’ve seen him at the top
Of the leaderboard multiple times this year you know so I would not be surprised to see him back up there again the Putter’s bad and we all know that and and that’s fine but there’s also a difference like I gave the same answer with Fina why the Putter’s bad but he’s
Also $3,000 more expensive so um yes I mean that that’s the thing it’s like every single 6,000 and less golfer is going to have in some baked in issue there’s a reason why they’re priced there if the profile was Flawless and they didn’t have these problems they would be 8,000 or higher
Or 9,000 or higher in this field so you have to know what you’re getting with Kevin youu but the ceiling’s very high it is it’s so high but I don’t think he even knows how high it is you know that’s I don’t think so either at this
Point which is weird for I dominant legit player um hasn’t necessarily put the pieces together like you would expect on the PGA tour but a little bit of injury a little bit of injury that that held him back last year and um been a really hit and miss since then but
Like Byron as you know it takes one result one win one top five for all of a sudden he his whole trajectory of his career changes yeah you just need to believe you can make those putts on Sunday um so we’ll see I think Spencer going from the bottom up Luke Donald on
This kind of a golf course is very intriguing to me at $5,200 he’s still a very good long iron player like when you take a look at what he gets up to it’s the driver that’s the biggest issue cool take that out of his hands it is what it
Is I think I’m I’ll be playing some Luke Donald in in some crazy lineups for sure Kevin stelman just kind of Screams to me at $5,500 at a course like this if you take a look at what he’s done here in the past not necessarily playing the
Best golf in the world but he’s again if you can find a guy that can give you something to to like argue his case at $5500 that’s fine you know if you’re playing 150 lineups throw him in a few Rafael Campos and Joe heith are two
More guys that I have from the corn fairy tour Campos is a very good ball Striker and Joe heith was right in the mix until he hit a shank I think on on Sunday or or Saturday afternoon he was right in the mix and then hit a huzzle
Rocket and kind of got himself out of contention there but those are those are all guys these corn Fury T guys are so talented and if you can find a few of them and get lucky with them and they have their breakout weak even a top five
Can really really help you at 1% not 100% there’s there’s two players for me well there’s a couple more if I don’t regress back the data like the Max geyser’s and the Jacob Bridgeman’s and the I kind of like Parker CTI like I’m more inclined to want to play Parker cie than
The other two um when I regress both of the first two’s totals they saw a bit of a decrease for me but um there’s only two players that graded inside of the top 50 of my model uh without or when I regress the totals to the mix there that
Would be campost which you talked about I also like Justin low yes it makes a ton it makes tons of sense I mean he’s he’s shown up quite nicely the last little while you know and I think he’s a good long iron player he’s a sneaky good
Long high player I don’t think a lot of people realize that and I mean what he’s had a few miscuts here and there but he’s had some really good results in between all of that $5,700 is is peanuts man for him yeah you’re at at this point
I mean Chad Ry was very close I guess as a third name that almost made the top 50 for me uh 58th overall 51st for for upside 75th for safety I think that’s a really nice profile though in general of a $5,500 golf for 27th here last year um
Scattered returns so far this season like he has two top 35s I always worry a little bit of what the what the upside actually is for him but it’s round one Spencer yeah round one leader at 100 and whatever yeah that might be like the preferred way to actually end up playing
It but um I do think there’s a drop off from this section from the $66,000 range I’m going to pick and choose like the three or four names that I talked about and kind of mix and match them into builds but I don’t necessarily think that you have
Quite the amount of upside that we talked about a second ago which makes a lot of sense like if I’m gonna love as many of the $6,000 golfers as I did it wouldn’t make sense if I came into the 5,000 range and I rattled off another 15
With it and uh like for me inside of my model if you took well you know what there’s one name I want to talk to you about because I don’t know what has happened to his profile but there’s still like things popping and you did a
Deeper dive on the corn fairy players so I’ll let you discuss him and uh he’s 98th For Me overall but he jumps into the top 70 when I ran this for upside Nicholas lindheim do do you have any thoughts on him um I was because he was
On the on the PJ for the the longest time and then just there were got injured there were portions of last year I remember that when they when he was in events he was huge favorites in head-to-head matchups against golfers that were like I don’t have a comparison
Off the top of my head right now but like $7,700 players in decent events and he’s like minus 150 to beat them and he was putting together results and it’s been nothing but bad from him this entire year which I guess is my biggest worry that uh I don’t necessarily have enough
Upside with the data to feel any comfortability with playing him right now but it’s bad it’s it’s been horrible yeah it’s been horrible and I probably won’t play him for that reason but like I always try to find these upside movers in my model that I can at
Least figure out like okay well the ceiling is higher than the floor if there’s 0.01% owned I can play them at 1% and take a like you know two shots in 150 man or something and like all of a sudden I’m so massively overweight in those few opportunities that’s it that’s
All you need dude and then the rest of the gang can just pull pull through at mediocre pace and call it a day you know that’s you just need one of these guys and I don’t know if it’s going to be him for me like that’s just a name that kind
Of fits that mold of what I’m usually looking for and he might be way too uh way too off like I would like to have at least seen something from him to Warrant him being usable yeah unless unless you like a corn fairy product that doesn’t really even have
Much to prove we know what these guys are up to typically and I guess he is a corn fairy product but he was on the PJ to at one point so we kind of he also like 40 years old yeah he’s ancient and is very short off the te that’s all I
Know about him that’s probably a a like the biggest negative Mark that you can find from him like it would almost be better if he was a 23-year-old kid yeah with like like a certain retre of data that I like versus being a 39 40 41y Old
Whatever he actually is yeah he’s closer to to his 401k than he is to like any other life Ambitions so I don’t know about Nicholas and I’m either Spencer we’ll have to wait and see but it’s a it’s a fascinating week it’s gonna be fun you know people you know just don’t
Give the vpa enough love I think right off the players it kind of catches a bit of you know that kind of you know black sheep of the family type situation but we’re here for it we’re going to play some some DFS we’re going to play some
Bets I’m looking forward to Sam Burns dominating this event potentially Brian Harman as well um Spencer what’s what’s going on in your life who’s your who’s your favorite guy this week where can the people find your nonsense what on Earth else do you have to say I’ll give you my outright card I
Guess we can both exchange outright cards here I don’t think that like I think that’s a good way to end this after all these players that we’ve talked about and um you know I didn’t get the best of the number on Doug gim and Aaron Ry necessarily but I got Doug
Gim at 55 to1 Aaron Ry at 60 to1 talked about Davis Thompson at 100 Adam hadwin at 60 so a lot of those Fringe mid to Upper and like medium to long shot type of names there where um I think gim is probably a better bet I mean I I don’t
Love what you talked about of him not necessarily having those like highest of end returns but I think this is also a different version of him at a weaker tournament than some of these events that he’s had so I thought he was interesting and then I bit the bullet
Like I’m I’m a sucker for sun JM you show me any semblance of form and I’m so back in after like just the slightest little bit there so I took sunjay at 27 the one I thought any of the 20 to five to ones out there were fine um you know
In an Ideal World I would have gotten the Brian Harmon 35 to one like you had gotten but to me that was almost a pivot away from these new 22 to1 Brian Harmon and trying to take sunj who I thought had a very similar profile at 27 the one
So uh just a number grab at the best I had at the market at that moment and it’s why we always talk about on this show price shop find the best numbers you can get ahead of Market moves uh sometimes we do a really good job of
That or you know like if you look at my matchup We Beat It by 27 points regardless of what happens here sometimes you get the Doug gim number where a numberers move Mo 20 points but my model had them at 41 to1 as the proper price so there was still value at
That ticket much more than a lot of these other names I’ll let you talk a little bit about your outright card but uh you can find me on Twitter at T Sports and I I will have a lot of content this week from inter tournament perspective like that’s that’s what I
Always tell people if you really want to start making money I think the inter tournament whether that’s DFS wise I know you’ve been crushing all the DFS answers you’ve been giving inside of Discord there from all the internments I’ve seen so many people posting inside the Discord that they won 500 $800
$1,000 and yeah we’ve had some even bigger winners than that so uh follow Byron for the DFS stuff follow me for all the in tournament matchups and I think you’re think there a good combination we have there Byron it’s a beautiful combination and tof or Maniac
Gets you 10% off of that and it’s all included under the same big umbrella you know I think if you’re in the mood for all the PJ stuff come over to ro Bola we’ve got you covered baby you know we we really trying to build a nice
Well-rounded product for you guys to use and we think we do have that I just have Sam Burns and Brian hman Sam burns are 12 I never figured that would ever get worse than worse than that you know I figured maybe we can grab the 15 one get
300 points extra from DraftKings or whatever but just from a a pure content perspective it was Sam at 12 I felt like it’s actually fun to write breaking 100 article Spence without having eight outrights yeah like I’m excited to write the article because I only have two guys
To write about you know I’ve been I wrote out 10 outright writeups last week I mean there’s something to be said about the time that goes into when you actually have 10 people on your card and you know that you’re going to have to
Talk about each one on I that LE on my podcast I just forgot to mention him last week you know like it happens you’re 35 to one whether Brian Harmon misses the cut he top 10 this tournament or he goes on to win that Brian Harmon
Bet at 35 to is going to be the best grab that anybody got on the board so kudos to you for putting that into the Roto baller uh Discord for everybody who was able to get that um as I said we will have all the matchups all the inter
Tournament stuff later but uh as always Byron this was a lot of fun yes buddy as always lots of fun my internet’s been a piece of crap today thank you all for putting up with me um the vpar baby let’s go you know we’ve been flirting with that with with winners like crazy
This week Spence this year so it’s time for us to hit another one I’m looking forward to celebrating with you next week my $100 bill shirt it’s been on in the closet for a few weeks now it’s time to get it back out again so till then folks catch me catch Spence
Pretty much on X you know if you’re following us on here you’re pretty much following us on there check out everything at roo.com over the course of the week we want to hook you up with the best plays with the best product with everything we can so we really
Appreciate you doing that don’t forget to hit the like button on the way out subscribe to the channel and we’ll catch you guys next Monday at 9:30 Eastern for the road b a PGA show
