Action Network contributor and golf betting expert Tony Sartori joins Golf Digest’s Andy Lack to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Valspar Championship on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Introduction
00:30 – bet365 Promo
01:15 – Xander Schauffele
04:05 – Doug Ghim
05:27 – Doug Ghim Part 2
06:32 – Lucas Glover
07:50 – Nick Taylor
08:46 – Justin Thomas
10:24 – Maverick McNealy
11:38 – Christiaan Bezuidenhout
12:43 – Andrew Novak
13:48 – Aaron Rai
15:16 – Peter Malnati
16:14 – Davis Thompson
17:19 – Rico Hoey
18:21 – Troy Merritt
20:03 – Sam Burns
21:10 – Brian Harman
22:43 – Andrew Putnam
23:39 – Erik Cole
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#AuthorTonySartori #BlueWireVideo
Welcome to links and locks Action Network golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host Andy laack and I’ll be joined alongside action golf contributor Tony Sor for these Best Bets episodes and just like Jason H and Ben have done the last couple of years Tony
And I will play 18 holes today giving our 18 favorite picks for this week’s Tour event the bow Spar championship before we dive into this week’s episode a reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get
More boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the
Incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and president in Arizona Colorado Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 in old and 18y older in Kentucky gambling problem called 1-800 Gambler 1-800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions
And restrictions apply okay Tony we are on the first T here for our Valar Championship Best Bets get us started yeah so Copperhead should give us a good test this week I’m looking forward to it especially with that the scores were a little um it was easier score last week
Then I think a lot of us were anticipating at the Players but I think Copperhead is it’s very tough course and I’m looking for those who can scramble and get out of holes at par better like especially with the tree line Fairways right so many people kind of get in
Trouble and last year we saw like the guys who were finishing top five or or uh before I believe it was Taylor Moore who won it it was the guys that were up there were all the guys who were just avoiding those Bogies after a bad shot
They were getting up and down they’re scrambling well and that’s kind of what I’m looking for this week so that brings me to the guy that burned both of us last week I hate I hate betting this guy more than anyone on tour but I’m doing it again maybe I’m a glutton for
Punishment but I’m going to go Xander shof Le to win at plus 750 at about 365 I just think that numberers not he’s in my mind just clearly the best player in this field and I think his advantage over the rest of this field is greater than Scotty’s Advantage was over the
Players field and I’m obviously not saying shley is better than Scotty he obviously not but I think that the gap between schley’s level and kind of like the next group of guys here is not as big as Scotty were last week at the play
Be at Scotty was plus 550 or plus 600 to win so I think we’re catching a really good number here on chle at plus 750 I mean same things last week I mean this he’s played as a top two golfer on two over the past two seasons he’s just
Struggling to get that win just like last week but I mean he’s he’s played well here before he’s great form he’s made the weekend in 28 consecutive tournaments sheffler is the only one who’s done that at a longer Pace um but unlike last week Scotty’s not in this
Field so that’s why I’m going to take one more shot on Ander and if he burns me again if he finishes runner up again then so be it that’s my first outright pick for this week uh I hope it for both of you I uh I will not be joining you
This week the number was a little little short for me I I just I just spoke with uh on my podcast a good friend who who interviewed Xander after and you know credit to your bet this puts more Credence to your bet the the morale was
High um he didn’t seem like this was the type of thing that is going to you know dramatically affect his mood or the state of his play I I don’t think he lost confidence from what happened on Sunday at the players and you know he got beat by what could be the best
Golfer that we’ve seen uh since Tiger Woods anderw didn’t even play bad that day he actually shot better than he he actually shot better than field average Miss but that was yeah right the 171 killed him yeah so I’m rooting for you the numbers a little short for me
This week but um I I hope it gets I hope he gets it done more than anyone this week if it’s not Xander um I’m going to go a lot farther down the board and go with Doug G who I bet at 80 to1 this week now full disclosure I’m in Mexico
Right now on family vacation bet 365 won’t even let me log on and view their odds um they’ve like blocked uh they’ve restricted access I guess in in Mexico uh but I would imagine that you can get Doug gim at many Sports books in the 50
To1 range by now I think the 80 probably dropped a little bit I still like them all the way down to 50 uh gim has been playing some of the best golf in this entire field like once you get past guys like Xander and Harmon and burns like gim has been unbelievably consistent
He’s made five top 20 finishes in a row he’s doing it in a very sustainable way as well he’s gain Strokes ball striking in five straight starts he’s gain Strokes off the te in five stra starts he’s gain overstroke on Pro F St starts and finally the putting is going is
Starting to come around as well which has historically been his biggest bugaboo in the past so um I just think when something’s right there in front of you uh and you’re able to find a golfer in this form in a weakened diminished field it’s it’s just negligence to to
Overlook it so G at 50 to1 I think should be a staple of anyone’s card this week who’s paying attention yeah to follow that up it was at 81 earlier it has C crash down it’s I’m pretty much seing 50 to 55 across the board now but
I love that you’re on him cuz I’m also on him I’m on him though top five 11 to one it’s what I got it at earlier I don’t know if that number is still out there at bet 365 um I locked that in this morning but yeah I mean there’s
Really not much that what you said like every Club in his bag is working right now he is playing a very well-rounded brand of golf and like you said he’s gained true Strokes on the approach off the te and total Strokes gain in each of his past five tournaments he’s finished
16th or better in all five of those tournaments he’s scoring he’s playing well he’s kind of playing like when he bursts onto the scene with that um amateur performance at the Masters he’s playing kind of now as the guy that we all thought he could be after that
Performance well I I don’t remember how long ago that was that was like four or five years ago now but um I think his game is starting to be there and at 11 to1 to finish in the top five with this recent form I think he absolutely could
Do that uh I’m gonna go with another outright at at long G ODS but uh I just had to scoop this one up this morning I think he’s down to 70 in most spots I bet Lucas Clover at 110 to1 I still like him down in the 70s 80s or 90s um you
Just look at a guy who bbar as you mentioned in his broke this tournament this golf course emphasizes accuracy off the T mid to Long iron play like you have five par 3s here that are over 195 yards this is a really demanding TD green course where it’s really important
To keep the ball in play off the T and hit your mid to Long irons really well Lucas Glover does that in Spades I mean he is one of the best mid to Long iron players in this field he’s one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in
This field I actually uh ran the numbers and he is the only player in this field Lucas Glover is the only player in this field to rank top 20 in recent approach approach play approach Play From the Rough proximity from 175 to 200 yards proximity from 200 yards plus good drive
Percentage of driving accuracy so Lucas CL is the only guy in this field to rank top 20 in every single one of those key stat categories that I’m looking at this week for inisbrook so I am on the Lucas Glover train at any number between 7 70
And 110 I think is uh I think is fine for Lucas Glover this week yeah I love that play um that brings me to my next outright winner and I’m gonna go after Nick Taylor Who’s 35 to1 so not as far down the odds board but I feel I don’t
Agree with this number at all cuz like that puts him around minu Lee and ER Cole like in terms of the position on the odds boor and like with all du respect to those two those two very good golfers I think Nick Taylor is just kind
Of in a tier above those guys and you’re giving me 35 to one he’s one of the highest ranked golfers in the world that’s playing this week um he’s in good form with five straight weekend appearances including his win at the Phoenix Open and I would argue that
Field was more stacked than this field is this week um he’s also one of the better scramblers in the field he ranks 19th on tour in scrambling percentage this season and therefore like as I said like the last year the scramblers were doing really well here and Taylor
Finished 19th and I think Taylor has only improved since then and you know he’s always a weapon on the greens so at 35 to1 I just think that’s kind of in this field that feels like a little bit of a misprice to me so that’s where I’m going for my other outright
Winner uh I’m goingon to take us now into the top 10 Market uh and roll with a player that was very disappointing for me last week at the Players we got a lot right at the Players one of the only things I got wrong was my confidence in
Justin Thomas um now the reason that I’m going for a top 10 on Justin Thomas this week which you can still get pretty good odds on I got almost two to one on JT to finish top 10 um he’s available at least at plus 185 um anywhere you look and I’m
Not sure that I trust his putter enough right now to win a golf tournament uh but the miscut at TPC sress was fairly misleading I mean JT was one of the leaders in the entire field over the first two rounds rounds in approach play he gained 4.8 Strokes on approach over his first
Two rounds just horrendous putting um and the short game that he can usually relying wasn’t there as well I am banking on the fact that on a golf course that demands and accentuates exacting iron play I mean this is a golf course where you’re going to hit so many
Mid to Long iron shots and JT proved that that aspect of his game right now is still firing on all cylinders um I still have some concerns about the putter but I actually think JT is going to bounce back this week in a big way
Like I said I don’t love the 14 to1 outright number um but I think JT I think this is a very good rebound spot for JT coming off a week where I think public perception on him is a lot lower than it should be right now I completely
Agree I think that’s a great by low spot on JT um so I’m gonna I’m Gonna Keep Us in the top 10 Market I’m going to go a little bit further down the odds bo uh to six to one and that’s Maverick mcne the two things Maverick mcne can do he
Can scramble and he can Putt and I think those two things can save a lot of guys who are maybe a little more mediocre this week at Copperhead so he’s gained true true Strokes putting in five of his past six tournaments with two top 10 finishes over that stretch so you know
The ceiling is there for a number that’s six to one and if I mean I don’t think the putter is going to go cold that’s always kind of been his best club or not like it has always been his best club and I think that’s going to continue to
Um show reason or give him the results that he’s looking for he also ranks first some mon this entire field in scrambling percentage this season whether that number is sustainable or not I guess we’ll see but it makes sense that he’s able to get up and down so
Much with how good he is on the greens and I think uh with these Bermuda grass greens he’s going to have no problem putting once again um and he finished Ninth at the Players last week again I know copper has a tougher course but the players is a tougher competition the way
He’s going to face this week so if he can finish top 10 at the Players I think he absolutely can finish top 10 here so at 6 one I think it’s worth a shot on Maverick mcne I’m going to go a little bit farther down into the top 20 market and
I got this guy at plus 220 I’m gonna go with Christian Baden Hout plus 220 in the top 20 Market uh Baden how gained over seven strokes on approach last week at DPC sass in fact he has gained Strokes on approach in every single start this year so quietly this season
Baden Hout has been one of the absolute best iron players in this entire field and as I’ve mentioned multiple times like I think a massively crucial aspect of this week is being able to tread water on those five long par 3s um those five long par 3s they rank as the top
Five toughest set of par 3s on the PGA tour and I think that you just want to trust players that are hitting their irons really well right now because if you are not hitting your irons real right now you are going to be exposed on those par 3s and on this golf course
Very quickly and so if you’re giving me a guy to finish in the top 20 at over 2 to1 that is hitting his irons better than nearly any other player in this entire field um I’m going to ride with Christian bazay and plus 220 top 20 nice
Nice I’m Gonna Keep Us in that market and I’m gonna go Andrew Novak at plus 475 um kind of like your JT play obviously very different golfer but um outs say or like your JT play I Want To Buy Low on Novak he also missed the cut
At the Players but prior to the Miss cut he had three straight top 10 finishes and I think he get back to that form even at a difficult course like Copperhead um he’s played here multiple times and he finished 27th here last year which yes it’s not top 20 but I
Would also argue he’s a much better golfer now than he was at this stage last year and I think he’s definitely seven places on the leaderboard better than what he was last year um granted we are seeing a little bit bigger names here this year than last year but I
Think with those three top 10s we’ve just seen the ceiling is there to at least finish in the top 20 um he’s also one of the best scramblers in the field he ranks 14th on tour this season in scrambling percentage so again just said 5 to one by low spot Novak he was
Playing really really really well before that Mis cut at the players and I’m not going to use that as like a reason to all of a sudden like stop looking at this guy to finish top 20 I’m gonna go with another guy who was very popular at
The Players uh we talked about him on this show last week he was a first round later play for me didn’t quite get it done in the first round later Market but a very solid overall players champ ionship for him and I’m going to go with
Aaron Ry top 20 he is also available at uh plus 220 so SE ODS is bazen out you can get on Ry right now um the reason I liked him at sass was simple like he is a very accurate driver of the ball in fact a top five player in accuracy off
The tea on the entire PGA Tour and he mixes that in with really great iron play um and while I think that valpar is a little bit different this tournament’s a little bit different than the PLAYERS Championship there are a lot of similarities to the golf course like
Both golf courses ask you to keep the ball in play off the te inisbrook obviously doesn’t have as many water hazards as TPC sress but it does have really thick rough and like a lot of pine straw and trees that you do not want to be in under any circumstances it
Still really plays to be in the Fairway at this golf course and I’ve already wax poetically about the importance of M long iron play another skill that Ry has in his Arsenal he had a lot of success putting on these overseed Bermuda greens as well we’re getting the same Agronomy
That we got at TPC sass last week so I’m gonna go with Aaron Ry top 20 plus 220 I’m Gonna Keep Us um in the top 20 Mark and this one’s very far down the board but I’m gonna go Peter melady top 20 is8 to one so a bit of a long shot
Here a bit of a d throw and he’s not a world beater right but he’s made the weekend in three of his past four tournaments and he’s finished inside the top 20 twice over that street scratch so the ceiling is there and again I don’t think yes inisbrook is very hard but I
Don’t think that the field demands that it’s going to be all these like huge well there’s not many huge names to begin with but all these huge names are only at the top and it’s kind of everyone else showing I think there’s G to be a lot of like mid to lower level
Guys that can kind of sneak up there on the leaderboard and I think Mel na is one of them he’s like he can like I wish I had more for you but he can play he’s in good form and he’s just kind of my why not play of the week it’s eight to
One all he has to do is get in the top 20 if he misses the cut won’t be shocked at all but 8 to one worth a dart throw uh I’m going to go I’m going to stick in the finishing position Market but I’m going to go a little bit farther
Down for these next two guys um that I think is an absolute steal to get at plus money just to finish in the top 40 but I’m going to go with Davis Thompson plus 110 to finish in the top 40 this is a player I always have my eye on I’m
Just really high on this guy long term really bullish on his ability um he was a big Georgia standout in the SEC very decorated amateur resume um and his play on the PGA tour so far has been quite solid as well like he has already established himself as fitting that
Skill profile that I’m looking for this week like Davis Thompson has already established himself as a very accurate driver of the ball and a great middle to Long iron player um we know that he’s very comfortable in this part of the country he’s had a lot of experience on
These Southeastern Bermuda Golf Courses so Davis Thompson just to finish in the top 40 at plus 110 uh one of my favorite bets on the board this week I love that I’m I’m shocked that’s plus funny I like that play a lot um I’m Gonna Keep I’m
Gonna go back to the top 20 Market one last time here um and I’m gonna go even further down the leaderboard than melady I’m gonna go after Rico hoey uh top 20 at nine to one I mean so he’s a solid Prospect from the corn fairy tour he’s
Gotten a tough start to on on the PGA tour this season with four straight four straight miscuts however he then went 56 at the cognizant and followed that up with a 32nd Place finish at the Puerto Puerto Puerto Rico open so he’s improving week over week now he’s a
Younger guy I think he’s only 27 or 28 so I I think his potential is higher than what we’ve seen so far and I could see this being a guy where yeah he’s probably not finishing top five top 10 but if he start sneaking up there into
The 25 the 30 range the 20 range I don’t think 9 to1 is the number we’re going to get get again on this guy um going down the line so I think it’s just kind of like um weth a dart throw on kind of like a prospect that’s not proven yet if
You want to go that route nine to1 is just such a long number to finish inside the top 20 a true Boomer bust play here but I I think that his ceiling is higher than nine to one would indicate like that I’m gonna go I’m gonna stick in the
Top 40 Market because I I’m not as bold as you are but I’m gonna go with another player that uh I don’t think is gonna get a lot of attention this week he’s it’s definitely a lot farther down the odds board but Troy Merritt is plus 180
To finish top 40 and uh Troy Meritt is one of the best uh Putters in this field and he has one of the best short games in this field and what happens when you can be an elite putter when you have an elite skill set is you’re going to have
Some spike performances so Merritt’s missed a couple cuts at this tournament he’s also finished top eight twice at the F far as well and he loves the screens Merritt is actually the only player in this entire field this is Troy Merritt um is the only guy in this
Entire field to rank top eight in this field in overall around the green play and putting on Bermuda over seated greens um so when you’re that far down the odds board you’re basic no one’s going to be perfect down there you’re going to be looking at players with
Flaws in their games but you always want to F find somebody that is aad at something right because if if they’re elad at did everything they’d be at the top of the board right they’re price that way uh for a reason and Troy Merritt has a lead ability um with his
Chipping and putting and he has shown it at this golf course before he’s played well at this golf course before he’s contended at this golf course before so I just thought plus 180 just to finish in the top 40 you can get even a little
Bit more bold with that if you want top 10 top 20 whatever it may have you uh but I’m going with Troy Meritt as a name that I think is going to surprise a lot of people this week I like that um I’m going to transition in the first round
Leader market and I’m going to go after a more chalkier guy now after throwing out a couple prospects but I’m gonna go Sam Burns 28 to1 lead after the first round you’re gonna hear this the broadcast is gonna be non-stop talking about this week how he’s a back-to-back
Winner here he finished six last year coming off those back-to-back wins so Sam Burns has AB dominated at this course and it’s not even like even before those two wins he finished 30th or higher in each of his two performances before that he’s five for five here on made Cuts 30th or higher
All five times two wins he’s just utterly dominated here and again I mean he’s the second uh short or at least when I was looking at this he was the second shortest odds uh to win the tournament outright so I think this is a chance to play Burns a little bit of a
Longer number um and he like he’s such a he can have such Boomer bust rounds we saw that last week at the Players where he went off in the third round but then the other three rounds were just kind of like just kind of hovered around average
So I think he could definitely Boom at a course that he’s dominated over the past five years so at 28 to1 Sam Burns is my first first round leader play love that one I’m gonna join you in the first round later market and play another guy
Towards the top of the odds board that I think you could just get much better odds on in the first round later market and this is a guy when I’m looking at the first round later Market I always like to filter out round one scoring
This is a player that over the last year in this field has been one of the top five uh first round performers and he is coming off a contending performance at the Players where he gained nine strokes and approached the best approach performance of his career I’m Gonna Roll
With Brian Harmon 40 to1 to keep it going this week um he showed me a lot uh at TBC s grass last week and and you know a lot of the time with Brian Harmon it’s he’s relying on his short game and putting a lot that was not the case
Whatsoever at TBC sass he was flushing the ball on approach like I mentioned it was his best approach performance by three shots um in his long you know decade long plus career so I don’t know if he could keep it going for another 72 holes but in terms of just like riding
The hot highend to keep it going for another round I think you’re going to be hard pressed to find a guy that’s hitting the ball as good as Brian Harmon is right now at at 40 to1 to to finish in the in the first round lead I love
That play So Much his iron play has looked incredible it’s not even just last week too it’s kind of been all season it’s looked much improved as compared to last year and if he gets those putts to start falling like he usually does he will well we saw a
Little bit last week but he will for sure be at the top of leaderboards um so I’m going to do one more first round leader I’m going to go a little bit farther down I’m going to go 80 to one and I’m gonna go to um towards Andrew
Putam at 80 to one he’s one of the best scramblers in this field he ranks 10th on tour this season in scrambling percentage he’s also you’ve talked all podcast about the midon irons uh uh putam has been awesome with those he’s um nearly hitting greens at a 63% rate
From 175 to 200 yards which is the largest like gap of approach shots that we or distribution of approach shots that we will see at Copperhead this week he just finished eighth at the Arnold Palmer and again I talked about ear but that that was a tougher field than what
He’s going to face this week so using that scrambling ability and the mid to Long iron play I I think there’s just so many ways as to which puam can put together a really good round to start off the week so at 80 to1 I think that’s
Just too good of a number to pass up uh love that one I’m going to my final pick is going to be in the first round later Market as well um I’m gonna go with a guy that I think everybody loved for the first couple of weeks of
The season and now he’s been a little bit forgotten about I’m gonna go with Eric Cole 55 to one in the first round later Market to pop his head back out again I know he struggled the last couple of weeks I know that he struggled at the cognizant whenever everybody
Thought that he was going to win that week and he was super popular there and then he kind of surprised and came back and actually played some really good golf at Bay Hill struggled again last week with a miscut at the Players but if I’m still looking at long-term form with
Those middle to Long irons Eric Cole is still a top five iron player in this field um he has shown on these golf courses that accentuate middle to Long iron play he’s had a lot of success on these types of greens he’s a lot of success on the Southeast Southeastern
Bermuda um and I just have a sneaking suspicion that Cole’s going to pop his head out again and and remind guys that you know it wasn’t necessarily a hot run he still is one of the best iron players in this entire field don’t know if I
Trust him for the full tournament um but I think Eric Cole is going to get off to a really hot start this week on a golf course that perfectly accentuates what he does best which is those mid to Long irons and putting um and that’ll do it
For Best Bets episode for the bpar championship before we get out of here a final reminder that the linkx and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on
Hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the booth and see why it’s never ordinary at
At 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1 1800 Gambler or 1 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply and a quick heads up um Sports bet is now live
In North Carolina so if you’re in the Tarheel State take advantage of the best signup offers across every sports book just follow the follow the link in this episode description all the North Carolina offers all in one place just check out the link in this episode description so for Tony Sartor I’m your
Host Andy laak and we will see you back here next week on the links and locks podcast presented by bet 365 e
