2024 Valspar Championship Picks, Research, Guess The Odds | DFS Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into stats at FantasyNational.com/mayo making early 2024 Valspar Championship Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
1:01Quick Info
2:31 Course Flyover
8:14 Course Stats
9:58 Tournament History
19:26 Field
22:57 Model/Results
39:48 Guess The Odds

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He’s gagi the Christi out here on a lot of these big end events B experience experience bat experience bat Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy code mayo and Underdog fantasy will get you deposit match for the first

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High so I would recommend getting that right now so you can use all the tools you can generate your lineups to make life easier on yourself fantasy national.com Mayo we’re talking valpar Championship digging into the research it’s a full field event is the final leg of the Florida swing obviously Sam Burns

W here back toback years Taylor Moore won a year ago after Adam shank had to try to hit a cross-handed shot next to a tree on the 72nd hole which he couldn’t do therefore Taylor Moore ended up winning speed made a nice run towards the end last year as well too but really

What we’re looking for here is a great te to Green game we saw Paul Casey for years have a great amount of success at Copperhead you avoid the water but it’s not one of these water log courses like most of the Florida sing swing that

We’ve seen so far so great T green game is really what you’re going to need and hopefully unlike Jason kokra the year that I had a lot of money on him and he could not get it up and down on the final hole in order to at least Force

The playoff with Paul Casey got to make a few putts here from time to time if you can’t chip you might be [ __ ] out of luck so let’s dig in to see what the course is offering up to us this time around the Innisbrook Resort the copperhead course 7300 and 40 yards par

71 and always the distinction was Bermuda but much like the PLAYERS Championship this year it is going to be POA trivial on top so it be POA greens this time around five par 3es average length 212 yards three of the five actually do play longer than that seven

Of the holes on this course have a sub 11% birdie rate and four of the par 3s were a part of that the par fours you got nine of them on the course averaging just a shade over 440 yards uh but there’s one really short one 380 yards

And that will drag down the average a bit with most of them actually averaging over 445 yards the three toughest holes on this course are all power fours number three number six and number 16 all of which carried a bogar worst rate over 24.5% over the past few years par fives

There are four of them on the course 582 yard a number that’s boosted up a little bit by the fifth hole which is 605 these are the four easiest holes on the course and the three shortest ones had a birdie rate that was more than three times the bogey rate so when we’re

Looking at it even adjust when we’re adjusting for par being a par 71 Copperhead actually plays a little bit longer than the scorecard since there are five par 3es comp complimenting the standard par fours and some of them aren’t even really driver holes you’re

Going to be forced to lay up a lot of the time and potentially land on your scrambling as well you have to factor in severe dog legs treelined Fairways 74 bunkers nine holes with water in play and an average driving distance more than 12 yard shorter than the average

Course again you do have to lay up a little bit here off the te to get yourself into the proper position like if you can go bombs away with driving accuracy with your driver you have a huge advantage that’s the Sam burn strategy that was the Paul Casey

Strategy is they just ripped it with their driver and were highly accurate the years that they were going to win and Sam Burns just made every single putt there was ever to make at this course in his back-to-back wins he was T6 last year as well in case you were

Wondering driving accuracy greens and regulation are hit below the PGA Tour average essentially you’re just looking for a player who can acutely manage each aspect of their te to Green game as I alluded to and just hope they don’t putt themselves out of the event so outside

Of the power fivs which play more difficult than you would think versus like your standard average PGA Tour set of par fivs the entire course is brutal but the snake pit is where the big blowups happen it’s far more noticeable since they’re the closing holes and also because it has

That awesome snake pit statue everyone talks about like the bear trap the snake pit is way better like you might refer to it as like the budget bear trap but it’s not I prefer the snake pit I prefer this course to any of the courses during the Florida swing it’s one of my

Favorite events of the year it just if it had a better PR firm to enhance its image then all of a sudden we’d be talking about the snake pit a little bit more but because it’s the week after the players and historically it’s been in the spot outside of like one or two

Seasons that it just doesn’t really draw all that great of a field because you know especially with an elevated event at Bay Hill and then the PLAYERS Championship like why would the top names end up coming we do actually have some pretty good names in the field this

Time around but overall it’s a bit of a weaker field generally speaking uh one thing I will do with you is do not Victory lap anything until your player TAPS in on 18 I did that that with Jason CRA that was a lot of fun the potential for a

Multi-shot swing over this final stretch seems inevitable because the snake pit is 16 17 and 18 they’re very difficult holes you can make birdie 9% birdie rate 9% birdie rate 11% birdie rate problem is you have a 25% bogey rate an 18% bogey rate a 22% bogey rate with some

Doubles or worse in there number 16 the biggest I mean it’s the most difficult hole on the course the power 4 but you know it has a 6% double worse rate to go along with the 25% bogey rate so over 30% of the field is going to make bogy

Or Worse on it so that’s where that really comes into play the cut line had not been below par dating back to 2003 and then 2022 came around conditions were a tad softer the cut of the top 65 and ties came in at minus two um that

Was in 2022 so we’ll see if that kind of I don’t know if that will keep itself going throughout the course of 20 24 when we take a back look back to last year and Peep the cutline it was back to two overpar so maybe it was a one-year

Aberration in 2022 that it was too under and if this course wasn’t Tough Enough Copperhead has the second most three putts inside 5T of any course since 2010 trailing only Riviera if you got tilted at Riv and you got tilted at Pebble Beach oh you are for sure going to be

Tilted again at Copperhead it also features the lowest birdier better percentage of any course on the PGA tour in if you could play the US Open in Florida in the middle of June without guys having heat stroke this would be a perfect venue grow up the rough and like

Really put an emphasis on hitting the Fairway some guys you know like a Scotty Sheffer would just go bombs away and he would actually be amazing at this course but obviously he is not playing it’s just kind of crazy to think about it that way uh where this could be such an

Awesome course it’s just like having a PGA Championship at PGA National that sounds like a great idea it’s just the wrong month to start hosting majors in Florida so let’s jump over to Fantasy national.com right now to get a sense of what we’re dealing with here in terms of

The stats as you can see the historic cut line as I mentioned is right here at two under or two over power it was two under in 2022 and then everything above power or even after that driving accuracy lower than average green regulations way lower than average scrambling a little bit higher three

Putts per round is about even but most of the three putts come inside of 5T which is just just crazy to think about the average driving distance well below uh over 10 yards lower so yeah 12 yards lower than the average driving distance on the PGA tour and like most courses that we’ll

See you see a lot of longer irons come into play a lot of that has to do with the longer power 3es obviously and the approaches into par fivs uh so but still the you know the plurality is going to come from 175 plus so emphasis on some

Of the longer irons irons in the bag not so much wedges you know can you score on the power fives tread water on the other ones and then you know approach and putting approach and putting that’s really what it boils down to when we’re thinking about who’s going to play well

At this course but you can see now off the te and around the green do factor in a little bit in order not to make some of those egregious numbers especially like when you need to get it up and down for power like you got to do that and

We’ve seen some pretty low scores at this course over the years and again fantasy national.com Mayo the app got kept getting rejected by a in the Apple Store hopefully it’s going to be hopefully it would have been released on like later Saturday early Sunday that I

Do not know that’s a moose thing not really a me thing uh but he’s working very hard on it to get it I’ve been using it all weekend if anyone watched the cut Sweat Show obviously it went really well in being able to track everyone so I really hope that we can

Get that into your hands as quickly as possible taking a look back over the years I mentioned Taylor Moore won a year ago Sam Burns won the two years previous both at- 17 obviously Sammy Burns is in the field again he beat Davis Riley in a playoff and then he

Beat Keegan Bradley the year before that Neeman was in the mix that year I vividly remember that because I had bet onwa Neeman the year before was Paul Casey the year before that was Paul Casey but obviously he’s on live now a lot of the guys are actually on live

From that year we take a look at 2019 that was the first year that the players was moved to March uh Casey won it minus8 that year so yeah it’s just it’s four live guys Casey Louie kokra and Bubba Bubba had some decent run here and

A lot of it was like chipping and putting related which was really strange you know Raman Liv this this was like the live open this tournament’s really getting hit hard because of Liv uh but sunjay was inside the top five that year as well that was the my CRA plus sunj

Year poor guy poor guy just couldn’t get it done poor CRA what other years do we have maybe we should take a look back at how Taylor Moore ended up getting the job done a year ago and see if that can really match up with anything that we’ seeing

Or at least trying to predict out we see across the board he gained didn’t have to gain all that much around the greens but he did gain five Strokes putting five Strokes on approach and gained off the te shank Fleet with speed and Wy C we’ll see if he wins The Players

Championship obviously I do not know that yet obviously I am rooting for Brian Harman to win because I have money on Brian Harman JT was right around it he just couldn’t make any putts coming home and if you’re not going to gain you see like the top five finishers all

Gained at least 1.7 Strokes putting and that was by far the lowest if you just take the top seven here and the gribbler Cody Gribble who led four strokes around the green he gained 6.5 so Burns was the worst of outside of Windham Clark of anyone inside the top seven finishers

With only three Strokes gain outside of that 3.6 4.6 7.4 4.9 6.5 so if you’re not running a hot putter chances are it’s not going to go well for you coming into this event if we go to select view we can kind of see like greens and regulations and Fairways uh good drives

Gained I mean everyone inside the top 10 gained on good drives gained versus the field see most of the people gained on driving distance so it’s not like you can’t have driving distance it’s just you need to be able to do better than the field in that greens and reg

Regulation game you’d have to go down to t16 to find the first guy who lost against the field but that would kind of coincide almost identically with good drives gained if you’re unfamiliar with good drives gained um it’s you know basically just driving green regulation when you go into it if you’re ever

Wondering what any of the tools are you can easily go into to the glossery of stats and we can find out what everything is good drives gained or good drives are when the player either hits the ball either hits the Fairway off the te or the player misses the Fairway but

Still hits the green or Fringe In regulation so if you hit the Fairway that’s a good drive you missed the Fairway but still hit a green in regulation that is still considered a good drive that you still drove it into a spot where you were able to get it

Onto the green so it’s sort of like enhanced driving accuracy it’s actually a stat I really like that very few actually talk about people are always like oh you need to have that guy that is you know great proximity from the edge of the green like no you really

Don’t at some courses cuz some guys know where they can miss it and that’s where good drives gain like Keegan Bradley the king of good drives gained over the years so that’s how Taylor Moore ended up getting done a year ago we go back to tournament history and we’ll take a look

At how Sam Burns was able to do it in 2022 now again this year played a little bit softer and apparently Davis Riley was like a thing that year couldn’t hit an approach to save his life only guy inside the top 12 who lost lost Strokes

On approach but he gained 5.1 around the greens and 7.1 on the greens Burns actually dropped Strokes off the te the only guy inside the top 16 to do that became seven on approach I guess this wasn’t the nean year Neiman year must have been the year before that in 20

Yeah it was 2021 so Thomas was top five Hermon was top five Herman’s back in the field this time around he gained 7.6 Strokes putting I would actually think a lot of the players that did really well on the greens at sass this week would probably be a pretty decent look this

Year Burns was the first round leader with a 64 and he all of his rounds were in the 60s uh he lost Strokes off the te only guy inside the top 15 to do that the year previous to that Sam Burns ended up being three Strokes clear of

Keegan Bradley he shot at 63 on Friday and that was you the best round of the tournament and that was good enough so you see some names pop up here like Matthew n Smith see how n Smith’s been doing because he’s heading a pretty decent run at the Players Championship

Through three rounds as we speak it’s been a very rough year it’s funny that you get to the PLAYERS Championship in what has been the largest and best field so far on the PGA tour in 2024 and that all of a sudden is when he actually

Wants to show up and do something so maybe as a first round leader you could potentially give him a look one thing I want to do that I always forget to do going into this tournament is just take a look at some of the recent form of the

Winners and how they actually were doing before coming into this event so I know that fineberg hit Taylor Mo last year this was when he got onto the board so you know hopefully we can we can pile up two here before Jeff gets to one if

Brian Harman can do us a solid so we saw two really good approach performances there wasn’t really much going on he had kind of made every cut coming through but in Phoenix four strokes gained on Approach at the Genesis 6.3 I wait that’s this year what

The hell am I talking about he’s having a good run right now uh let’s go back and look at valpar last year so he made the cut of the players and gained four strokes on approach and gained off the te he had been gaining off the T pretty pretty significantly everywhere at the

API 3.7 3.4 in Phoenix and he had top 15 finishes through the West Coast Swing after starting the year off pretty terrible the first event that he had played was the American Express then he goes to Farmers Pebble and Phoenix and comes top 15 in all of them before kind

Of going backwards little g off the te and on approach in all those events and then did that at the Players Championship so with t35 at the players for Taylor Moore okay so that’s interesting information to have uh let’s go back and look look at what Sam Burns

Was up to apparently I have cap locks on with this code Mayo at Underdog Fantasy by the way in case you didn’t know so we’ll go to 2022 when he was the champ he won the Charles Schwab and he won the Valspar so he was ninth at the Arnold

Palmer Invitational in 26th at the player so so far we have two guys who finished top 35 at the Players Championship you can see that he was ramping up he had gained the worst he did over that stretch was gained 4.4 Strokes on putting and that was was at

The Players Championship when he came t26 uh the approach was good at Arnold Palmer the approach was really good at valbar gained off the team marginally at the players and at the Arnold Palmer it was like kind of terrible through the West Coast Swing he had one decent

Approach week decent chipping the putter was bad the driver was bad everywhere besides Farmers but he missed the three straight cuts coming in got it back together a little bit during the Florida swing so let’s see how he did that the year before it was in May the year

Before that because with the covid reshuffling uh that’s just how everything ended up turning out so this year is a bit of a different outlier but his approach game had been Fire coming in you can just see you know even dating back to the swing season 6.5 turns the

New Year 2.1 1.2 1.5 6.8 with a third place finish uh he had missed the cut at the players that year but that wasn’t the year that it was after the players at the Heritage he to39 then he wins the Valspar and then he goes out again and

Comes second at the Byron Nelson ends up winning uh at the Sanderson Farms during the swing season and loses in the playoff when Abraham aner got his first win at Southwind so good approach performance coming up to it nothing great again but he was able to flip the

Switch getting back to Florida and he had a you know a bad run through Florida for like the first time ever in his career so before that would have been Paul Casey see if what he was up to PO Paul Casey the live guys are still in the

System at the moment I think there we go there’s Paul Casey see how Paul Casey’s doing here uh we’ll go to his wins we had the valbar championship he had missed the cut at the Players that’s when everyone was on him he was Uber chock at the players that year in 2019

Ended up missing the cut cuz I think he went double water on 17 and that was the end of him that’s him but he still gain Strokes on a pro on driving the ball actually and his approach play had been amazing going into it he had a 16th at

The to he had gained Strokes on Approach at the Sony but missed the cut cuz he dropped 3.1 on the greens second at the AT&T proam that’s the year that Phil one uh and he gained Strokes on approach in the two rounds so a stroke per round on

Approach at Pebble Beach the Genesis gained four off the T six around the green lost five on the greens but still managed to gain Strokes on approach T25 WGC Mexico gained gained almost six Strokes between driving and approach before missing the cut of the players and then winning okay so we’re seeing

Like a little bit of you know you need to have some form with approach coming in um obviously here here he came T12 uh before playing the valbar championship this is when the PLAYERS Championship was still in May this is 2018 so we’re going back a while here but you can see

Tia green he had been just you know kind of killing it coming in and you hope that the putter flips a little bit he had not only it’s funny because he lost Strokes off the te at the valper but gain I mean marginally but gained 9.4 Strokes Tia green he had gained every

Start uh on the PGA tour That season Tia green coming in only the Genesis was like a little bit bad but he had some good form coming in so we do want to see some form form from some of our players coming in this week overall like I said

It’s actually a pretty strong field if we just kind of sort by Strokes gain total over the last 24 rounds you will see the the best in the field are Justin Thomas Sam burn Xander killer Keith the gim Reaper Bo HOSA Ryu horel Bez Taylor pendrith Tony feno this could be a very

Nice Tony course can’t really recall whether or not Tony is actually gaining Strokes on the green or not but I know he’s not like the worst guy in the field on the Green this week which he had been kind of going in to it yeah he’s actually up

Through three rounds 2.3 Strokes putting so this might be a really good time to get back on Tony fena the best player in the field in approach over the past 24 rounds third T de green and we’ll just take a look at it like it’s one of the

Reasons why I was on him at the Players just like maybe he can figure it out he’s not having like a great week he’s t31 after three rounds but just look at these TD green numbers look at these ball striking numbers they’re all very good he has three Mis cuts and a top

Five f Spar Val SP Spar yeah so you can see he had the one year he he came in fifth and somehow gained 13.6 Strokes T to Green but dropped on the greens he’s never gained on The Greens at the score so that’s somewhat worrisome but if he

Does end up gaining at the Players that’ll be two in a row since he took his two-e Hiatus after just an abysmal start to the year on the greens but he did have listen a six Place finish t19 t13 looks like he’s probably going to

End up coming like T30 is unless he has a really nice or really bad Sunday if he just stays where he’s at- 6 – 7- 8 at the Players it’ll be a T30 which kind of Falls in line with a lot of the different players that we’ve seen uh end

Up winning this event so Tony’s going to be on my short list this feels like a Tony tournament to win as well canl is in the field minwoo is in the field overall like we have a lot of pretty good players we’ll get to that and guess

The odds a little bit later on but leading the field Xander Klay Burns Haron JT spe cam young is playing again feno then you’re into minwu sunj Nick tlor straa Keegan Cole defending Champion Taylor Moore hadwin he’s won this tournament before Doug gim Aaron Ry

Ryan Fox maybe Ryan Fox kesco the fox he made that hole in one and then missed cut at the players and so maybe we don’t go to Ryan Fox it’s been a pretty up and down season although he did gain four strokes on approach it’s just funny to

See how bad his off the tea game has been when that’s kind of his weapon this is when he started to get hot last year was at the players and I’m going to release a best ball column for major season coming up and Ryan Fox is one of my favorite kind

Of like as Pete would say the the scroll down type guys where he’s in the first two majors and when he gets hot he gets super hot and I kind of outlined that and it’s mostly on the DP World Tour where he’s done most you where his winds

Have come from but you just see him he has these clusters of like four events in a row where he’s great then he kind of sucks for like two months and then he’s great for like three tournaments in a row then he goes away for like 5 months and absolutely sucks but it’s

Just funny to think about it that way of trying to get on someone early in trying to figure that out let me load in the valpar model I haven’t even really even considered it at this point so let’s go to manage models and oh valpar new for 2022 and I have a valpar

Simple so let’s load both those in let’s get rid of some of the ones that are up there bye-bye players bye-bye maybe it’ll be better next year Riv we can get rid of PGA National we can get rid of driving and putting yeah we can leave that one in there and we’ll

Get rid of Bay Hill and we’ll update everything for ourselves and then we’ll have to reload the page to make sure that everything takes for us and then uh we got a stew going here valpar new for 2022 see how see how it’s doing for us

Here past 24 rounds uh and we’ll try to build out a mixed condition model as well uh the model rank of players coming in over the past 24 runs you got Xander Burns feno Burger how’s your burger coming in fourth didn’t qualify for The Players Championship poor guy my guy

Carson young Carson young three putted from inside three feet on number 12 or 13 if he had made the cut I would have won a very substantial amount of money at the Players Championship and the moment he missed the cut my two best lineups were dead and it was like well

That’s what I really get for being super overweight on Carson young uh probably not the greatest idea in the world but now we’re back at a course where maybe he can do well who knows he does rank fifth in this model he’s going to go

Down a little bit I would guess uh once the player stats get updated Sig horel Hadley gim Reaper maybe this is the time for Doug gim Aaron Ry are you are you Jimmy Ry who wants to know he’s number 10 Taylor Novak Novak Nation kind of

Sputtered at a lot of the guys spoted out the players I wouldn’t worry about that we saw the the Paul Casey one uh that it really doesn’t make that much of a difference Justin Thomas is actually a lot lower in this than I would have expected he’s number 27 coming in

Because a lot of the weights I’ll have these in the newsletter by the way and you can see them on the screen right now but we have you know two 200 to 225 Justin Thomas has not been all that great in that uh par five scoring kind

Of ditto uh for him in that way Justin Thomas 131st on the PGA tour over the past 24 rounds and par three against the field 200 to 225 yards also his Fairways are way down probably should have considered that before I played him and bet him at the Players Championship

Although was Strokes a off the t- numbers are really good it’s the chipping that really I mean the putting was bad for JT he was fourth in approach after two rounds so I’m not really too concerned about that I can see him coming out and curb stomping the field

Here but it’s going to be hard to trust him knowing that he’s going to come in with a very high number coming in bogy avoidance uh Hadley Burns pendrith not not pendrith so much at the Players Cam Davis in the field that’s going to ruin his numbers

For ages Xander badley gim Ryan Palmer Andrew putam Silverman Justin Thomas Taylor Montgomery this could be a good Montgomery course the good drives are way down who leads in good drives lately Aaron Ry Damon Bryce Garnett you know he got a win he’s playing well with the

Players might three weeks in a row for old man Garnett might be a bit too much Billy hoe doing well Vic Perez who made a run at the Puerto Rico open at the very end putam the opportunities gained are terrible for putam however the good drives gained are very good and there’s

Keith Mitchell wow maybe this is a week just to go to Keith Mitchell uh he had a very bad Saturday at the Players so maybe that will bury him a little bit you see good drives gained for Daniel burer I want to see the the 24 rounds

How far does that go back it goes back to 2022 when he was on fire how’s he been doing H he had two really good rounds and then two very poor rounds for him so he’s someone that we’re going to want to get I bet him at the at the Honda

Because I always used to bet him at the Honda but it’s tough with him without seeing like that Elite Form where you know that his number’s going to come in and like probably something pretty decent cuz he still is a name in this field feel like Kevin dh’s playing all

Right and there’s Chan Yu that’s Kevin Yu by the way another guy who who broke my heart at the Players I’m not afraid to go back to him in this circumstance no idea how he has been at this course over the years but you see it’s like top

10 or bust for Kevin Yu at this point valpar missed the cut in 2022 all right so let’s load in that other model that I talked about I I haven’t looked at it since uh valpar simple Fairways gained good drives gained around the green opportunities gained bogey avoidance okay that is

Super simple let’s see who’s the best in that Damon Ry Novak Xander Zack Blair Glover I probably don’t need Fairways and good drives on this let me edit this a little bit let’s just bump down Fairways gained uh opportunities game we’re going to throw in some longer

Irons we’ll go proximity 175 to 200 proximity 200 plus and throw those two just cuz we saw that those two buckets really came out we’re not going to wait them all that highly put them at like 5% each with opportunities gained around the green will bump down a little bit

And good drives because that does I mean we have opportunities gain to capture approach play like really good approach play and good drives does factor into that as well it factors in Fairways Plus Greens and regulations so let’s update it and just see if we have

Anyone who’s a little bit better Cas so Damon still stays in first place after 24 rounds Aaron Ry number two Keith Mitchell so Keith Mitchell is looking like a bet here he’s playing a ton of golf but let’s go to Keith Mitchell he’s been playing some relatively good golf

Too this would be six weeks in a row for Keith Mitchell or maybe even more let’s see actually you know he wasn’t at bill was he was he at bill I guess he wasn’t look at these approach numbers look at these off the te numbers like

This is kind of like the tailor Mo template the around the green is is not doing us any favors here he’s dropped in five straight so if he needs to get up there and bogy avoidance he lost 12 Strokes putting at this event in 2021

That is this got be some sort of record I know he’s got a hockey record he was the only guy ever to take off a skate and try to stab someone but 12 Strokes putting boy that’s a lot he gained 8.5 in 2017 when he played here as well but

The off the te and approach has been really good uh the off the te was good that year the approach was good that year and he broke even around the greens at the valpar so you would hope that he can get it together or just hit so many

Greens in regulation he doesn’t have to chip all that much You’ kind of want someone who’s a bit more balanced in all three facets of te green but I like what I’m seeing from killer Keith here maybe time to to jump on it jump on it Keith Mitchell Jump On It

Cam young all right he rates out pretty well collie I mean I how has colie played here I’ve liked collie so far I mean he made that little mini run at Honda and then fell back I mean the approach play was really good at Phoenix this will be his third start back he

Actually gains Strokes putting he’s been gaining off the team I that was kind of his he actually seems to be better off the te now than he was in his Heyday and if the approach can come back for him how has he played this course that Spa

Not well Valero might be where we want to go Texas guy so maybe we go Bud cly once we get back to Texas gim still rates out really really well so does Novak so does the glove there’s fow he’s number 15 Rogers is 17 OE is 19 there’s

Pendrith he’s 21 again these will all update Vic Perez actually coming in in fifth very good at good drives opportunities gain I mean that’s kind of part and partial can’t can’t chip to save his life so that’s somewhat problematic I mean that’s where Carson young is going to get got that’s where

He got at the Players every time he didn’t hit a green regulation he was proper [ __ ] and it was not even close like dude cannot chip to save his life so these around the green numbers have made pretty penal and they are bumping down some guys that are pretty bad the

Best the best of the worst guys around the green because they’re so good at everything else is Mitchell is Burns cam young and Tony feno um but you just hope that they hit all the greens in regulation who is the best around the green player right now and does that

Correlate with Bogi of voidance it’s sh Kim who sucks at BO Bogi avoidance but is great around the green that’s really bizarre to me badley is good in both colie is really good in both but again those stats come from way back stuman sink Xander I mean Xander wins The

Players I mean he’ll probably end up withdrawing from this tournament just like Tom Kim did Tom kid obviously withdrew from the players he’s supposed to be in this field however he is not he has already pulled out could this be a bow Hustler track good drives up there

Around the green up there boki avoidance up there we know he can putt when the time comes what are his numbers looking like and ditto with MAV McNeely obviously he’s having a good run at the Players through three rounds but we’ll see how a he’s done I mean he’s putting

Up some decent performances despite losing Strokes on approach every single week but if you can drive Chip and Putt well enough you can kind of get yourself through he’s played this once that was last year and he’s almost the same template as he is putting up so far this

Year he was t36 but gained off the te around the green and putting and lost Strokes on approach maybe someday he’s like minwoo Lee in a weird way maybe minwoo is a guy to look at here CU driving if you can just get lucky with the approaches maybe his like

Long approach play is a little bit better who’s this I’m looking at here beautiful Bo husta I don’t remember if he made the cut or not I don’t think that he did but the off the te has been good the approach has been spotty but it hasn’t been horrible the around the

Green is always good and there’s been far more better putting weeks than bad putting weeks valpar miscut t39 miscut mcot mcot so no great history to speak of but TD green wise he’s showing a little bit like we saw with one of those former winners if we’re trying to find a

For like trying to find the winner of this event uh Doug gim is probably you know your I don’t want to say your best bet but he’ll probably rate out the best when we start kind of digging into some of this stuff see on POA he a little bit

Better these will be designated as POA greens Tia green he’s been amazing the results have been amazing can’t recall what he’s been up to never really nothing much t27 at valbar miscut at valbar can’t figure out these greens but it does appear like he’s putting a little bit better than he normally does

He’s had some real rough goes on the greens throughout the course of his career but maybe it’s the time for the gim Reaper I’d love to see gim and gim end up winning I want to be there when gim wins so I mean not there physically

There with like a bet on him after years of betting him so I’m going to add him with Keith Mitchell to the short list at the moment uh who’s this minwoo so minwoo back-to-back good approach weeks it’s funny that his around the green game has been so bad when that’s sort of

Part and parcel of what he’s supposed to be doing well off the team we know he’s going to be good putting wise he should be a lot better you know maybe he had so many spikes last year and that’s really weighing in our minds that he’s this

Great putter but he has not been good so far this year he did drain that like giant one on 17 uh at the Players we can go take a look at the Players you can always go back and take a look of everything that’s in real time I have

That pulled up if we just go to the PLAYERS Championship we can take a look at how some of the players are doing so far this week and we go to the live stats option that is at the top and take a look at old minwoo he went backwards on

Saturday that I recall so yeah the chipping has been good the putting has not been good but if we go to round two and we go to minwoo let’s see how much that was going to be yeah he ended up gaining marginally so not great on that and if

We just stick to all rounds once again we can take a look minwoo yeah minus 5.7 on approach gaining hugely off the te hopefully uh you know if you’re going to bet on minwoo if you get a really good number the key would be to obviously

Just hope didn’t pray that it’s one of those good approach weeks and everything else comes along with it like it did at PGA National but this time he can get up over the hump Strokes gained approach of guys that probably will be in the field hogi Ryan Moore Brian Harman cam young

Are up there oh good maybe Xander and Windam Clark can blow it on 16 because that’s where they’re at right now is I’m doing this hubard uh Baden H uh has a fantastic Strokes gained approach right now as does CT pan and cam young nasty Nate Lashley Hideki if Hideki can only

Putt man he’d be doing so great in this tournament he’s t n he’s doing well Taylor’s having a rough go today a lot of that is around the green stuff uh but he is the approach and putting has been well and I think he has a top 10 at the

Valpar in his career and we know Canadian Adam hadwin has won this event before he already has a win on the year let’s see T10 at valpar 70th miscut 24th miscut 62nd miscut 24th Nick Taylor has been around an awful long time generally gains on approach you do worry about his

Wonky his leaky driver as we we’ll call it at this play so maybe you can Club down and it won’t be that big of a deal um just trying to find some other guys who are up there in approach ecro theala they’re not playing Aaron Ry is up there

Dude can’t putt this we know n Smith T green doing great 5.7 killer Keith you know 3.1 losing everywhere else dropped almost four strokes on approach through three rounds but nice to see that the approach is up there again for him Zack Blair I mean we can get back on Zack

Blair did is this the place where he popped up last year he popped up like ins inside the top 10 somewhere no that was at Wells Fargo somehow Valar he was T10 here last year yeah and puted the lights out drove it straight and Chip chipped as well as you could possibly

Chip so that’s what we’re looking at right now uh for the guys that were playing well this week uh then actually the other thing that we can do before I jump out of here and take a look at the live stats I just want to take a look at

Some of the guys who missed the cut and see how they ended up doing see if there was anyone who has like hidden stats Thomas 4.7 Strokes on approach approach couldn’t do anything else was there anyone else he’s really the only one with like a spike you know any of this

Stuff David skins was good T green most of that was driving related Tyson Alexander and Alex SMY both pretty good on approach Grayson s really good on approach terrible off the tea but he rided really out really well on that model that we ran earlier Hayden Buckley

Gain Strokes ball striking as did OE OE couldn’t chip OE couldn’t putt that’s not new for OE maybe he could get dialed in at a course like this he’s sort of like the the Lesser version of what Kevin Yu has been so far this year in

Terms of he’s going to have a really good performance or he’s going to be absolute [ __ ] and there’s dialon woo how is he losing so many strokes off the te must have went in the water a few times CU he’s someone who’s normally exceptionally accurate off the tea we’ll

See if he’s in the field I really like himic Colonial a year ago and he kind of did well but not as well as you would want let’s see dialon woo yeah Fairways gain 25th good drives not great so he’s not having a fantastic year although we

See that the approach has been really good for him uh two of the past three weeks and he’s gonna be right around four right now at the Players Championship gained a bunch at Sony as well uh last year the approach had been pretty dialed in you just need him to

Hit the fairways he has to hit now I need to see if CT pan in the field is it time to get sucked back into CT Pan the panal you panamaniac out there getting sucked back into CT pan doesn’t feel like he’s in the field now he’s

Not poor guy poor pan let’s see let’s let’s scroll down in case I’m just spell I know his name is I mean it’s not all weird this is actual name but I always forget how to spell Shen sh CT is what I want to look at just like CT from The

Challenge in the traar you need CT on the PGA tour maybe he can come through for us um scrambling wise around the green wise anyone else that kind of sticks out Martin trainer what a run for Martin trainer he went from the PGA Tour he just played in I think it was

Singapore maau this week on the Asian tour he was inside the top 10 now he’s going to fly back to play in Florida again this guy is trying to have his cake and eat it too trying to get in the live tour trying to keep his PGA Tour

Card what hustle from party Martin TR who now identifies as he is from France although for years he was American but now he is France maybe he’s trying to get on the Ryder Cup team bad look maybe he’s trying to get on the Olympic team for France uh before everyone on France

Like actually started to be good all right so I think that’s enough of that let’s get to the odds for the Valspar Championship let’s try to guess him now a lot of this will have to do with how Xander or Harmon end up finishing at the Players if Harmon wins his odds are

Going to be higher if Xander wins his odds are going to be higher he’s currently winning as I am recording this whether or not he holds on I mean he’s gagi a Christi out here on a lot of these big end events so will he hold on

I we got wind Clark who wins big events Brian Herman who just won the Open Championship on his heels I’d kind of I mean I want to see Harmon win for me personally but it’d be nice to see Xander get a win he’d kind of have you

Know WGC he has the Tour Championship get him a players he kind of has like the the the Min Circuit of everything that’s below a major championship going into it but we can guess the odds I’m guessing that Xander is going to be the favorite coming into this tournament I

Have him at 10 to1 Klay at 12 Sam Burns at 14 he is a two-time defending Champion we’ll see how he finishes at not defending champ he won this two years in a row finished T6 a year ago put on a show early on Saturday at the

Players 2 we’ll see where he finishes up Brian Harman and Justin Thomas both at 18 to1 cam young and Jordan spe both at 22 to1 Tony feno 25 to1 maybe we catch a 30 it’s 30 28 to 30 on on top five Tony bet him to win not top five I’ll bet him

To win and then I’ll be pissed when he comes to E4 and I didn’t bet him to finish inside the top 10 m Woo Lee 35 to1 along with sunjay Nick Taylor and straa both 40 to1 Keegan and Cole both 45 to1 along with Bo Hustler uh the

Books just like Bo Hustler they always seem to overvalue him in that sense for a guy who’s never won I’ll put him at 45 to1 as well after that defending champ Taylor Moore at 50 to1 along with CZ Glover at 55 former winner Adam hadwin

At 60 I have Doug gim in my initial at 60 he’s probably going to be like 45 oh dagger dagger to the heart on Doug gimt 45 to1 in a full field EV if he’s 60 I’ll probably bet him Aaron Ry Ryan Fox Adam shank who was the runner up last

Year I have all at 65 to one join Underdog fantasy if you have not I gave it a 100 to One play on Saturday it did not win but we were 5 inches away from hitting the 27 to1 insured play on it when Rory just miss his Eagle putt on 16

We had hogi plus Rory Plus cam young who had a real bad day on Saturday at TPC sass did not make an eagle they had Eagles or more hogi made his and Rory came that close that close uh to dropping his on 16 had a few chances he

Did not play Great Golf would have been nice to hit but Underdog fantasy code Mayo the link is down in the description again if you’re doing it before Sunday night I’m giving away the $5,000 on Sunday night on the NCAA tournament bracket pickham show so get yourself in

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