Ron and Byron go through the pricing for the week, talking about their favorite guys to build around, golfers to avoid, strong pivots and where the heavy ownership is at for the Players Championship.
0:00 – Welcome
1:30 – Rabbit Hole factors
4:00 – $10k+ range
16:35 – $9k range
23:45 – $8k range
32:10 – $7k range
41:40 – $6k range & team drafting
We are back with another episode of the Byron b spurts golf DFS show for The Players Championship in 2024 in case know what year it is we got my main man Ron Claus AKA PGA splits 101 to my left depending how you look at the screen but how you doing
Ron yeah I mean look other than the Masters this is probably my favorite tournament to watch you know golf golf is already the sport with the most variant and this week you know the game is being played on perhaps golf’s most volatile course TBC Saw Grass and so
Yeah I just think you know the penalty hazards create all the variants and you know I think that’s why it’s it’s one of the best viewing events because of all the unpredictability the risk reward holes you know Pete Dy wants you to be uncomfortable and you know it’s a
Visually intimidating course and you know look at top three courses for most penalty Strokes uh and the thing I love is that the 10K guys that we’re going to talk about are just as likely to miss the cut as the 7,000 range it seems and so you know I was hoping for some
Weather chaos but it looks looks like winds are going to be pretty light for all four days so that’s interesting to keep an eye on but uh yeah I’m excited to dig in here let’s dig in but be speaking of digging in though Ron I mean what digs in better than a rabbit
Hole Yeah there’s uh this is another week where you know you want to get really down deep lot of tunnels down there you can go in get lost um so yeah like uh you know you want to look at high water danger you want to look at
You know strong field events you want to look at some floor ceiling rates one thing I talked about earlier is you know ball striking obviously is key this week and you know I think one of the cool things about the the floor ceiling filter we have is you can go and look at
Just ball striking um on courses that have high water danger um and so you know the ability to get really specific with some of these conditions is a really neat thing and so yeah there’s tons of things you can get on there again uh we still got uh you know a deal
With Vivid picks you know if you’re I think it’s only 28 States get that but yeah if you want to send me a message or go on bsur golf.com and we’ll hook you up about $5 only still um we have promo codes if you’re not in a state that
Allows Vivid picks but yeah a lot of great deals uh the rabbit hole I think is is kind of revolutionizing uh you know a lot of the way people research and especially a course like s has really helpful very much so but the fun thing about s grass
Is it’s not necessarily a course history kind of venue the the predictability isn’t it’s about middle of the pack when it comes to all the courses on tour but there’s definitely like a course fit element of this right Ron like there’s specific kind of golfers specific kind
Of Trends and traits that kind of lead into golfers that have had success at s grass so we’ll kind of do our best to identify those for me I think you’ve heard it pretty much across the industry as you’ve been listening to as a fly
Flies into my eye but we got recent form being ENT this week I think that has to be a big big part of it if you’re looking for the winner I think there are also guys that have obviously not played fantastic golf that kind of tend to play
Good golf here too I’ve got a $5,000 golfer that I’m going to be rostering this week in my 150 lineup so we’ll see how that goes for us but let’s dive into it Ron we were chatting before the show went live about what we’re going to do
At the top of the board and Scotty Sheffer at $112,000 800 is going to be uh interesting situation for me as I’ve always mentioned on the show I cannot get Scotty Sheffer right in the sense that I will roster him majorly and and play him in like 75% of
My lineups but my cut sweats report told me that he was the second most costly golfer I rostered in 2023 and if you take a look at what Scotty Sheffer got up to last year how is that even possible and to me the only thing that makes sense is either I’m terrible at
DFS or it’s just difficult to kind of get good lineups together with scote Sheffer in them because he’s amazing but his price tag and points per dollar are are really high you know considering what he’s priced at and 128 after one win to me just seems woo you know that’s
Really Steep and I’m looking at 31 potentially 35% you know I think in in the 150 Maxes I would not be surprised to see people go heavier on Scotty because they can they can roster more golfers around him versus I think you know do you think he’s ownership will be
A bit less than 30% maybe in the single entries yeah and and just really quick like another thing to think about related to Sheffer is you know the volatility of this event you know as historically good as he is you know it it it almost forces you to think twice about you know
Sheffler and you know you want to go back and look just examp you know so sheffler he he won last year but before that he was 55th and then missed a cut you know Rory he won here in 2019 he missed the cut in two of his last three
Starts here and then you look at the you know um the fifth and sixth ranked players in the world Patrick Hanley Xander Schley they’ve missed a combined six Cuts here in their last eight trips to TPC sag so you know I think this is one of the weeks just speaking from a
Broader perspective here that you know I’m definitely widening out my player pool you know so if I’m playing 150 lineups I usually have a pretty tight pool around 35 40 golfers but this week it’s probably going to be closer to you know in that 50 range maybe even maybe close to 60
Because I you know as much as I want to go all in on Sheffer as much as last week maybe it’s recency biased but again we all know this when when his putter is even just average like he’s going to win and so that being said probably not the
Week to go all in on one player and so for me the question is how many sheffler lineups are reasonable and so you know with him coming in around 30% right now um right now my plan is probably to play him somewhere maybe around 40 to 50% and
I know you’re going to be completely opposite of this but you know look nobody’s gone back to back here but Scotty is just so historically Elite and if you look at when he won last year he gained 0.1 Strokes putting so he doesn’t even need to be good he just needs to be
Average even probably could have been below average last year and won because he won by five Strokes um so it’s it’s just it’s a conundrum but I think for me um I think I’m G to be heavier whatever that final number that own comes in I’m
G to try to be heavier on okay now I feel you I I was building some lineups if you build Scotty Sheffer click his name first I think you got like 7440 to to leave on the table for the next five guys if you click wam Clark Max Homer and Shane
Lowry I think you got $7,200 left for the next three you know so you’ve already put two really nine really good 9k guys in spot number two and three and you’ve got just a few hundred dos less than what you would have for five other golfers when you got a Scotty
Sheffer lineup so to me that was kind of just how I Justified that to and and 30 35% ownership gez Ron you know this course is a unpredictable Beast you know it’s a mistress with a whip that cracks hard and if you haven’t treated her well she
Will kick you out the house without your clothes and it’s not a good course to go on you know like I think I always say pivot your face off but Scotty’s playing so well it’s hard to do that but I think I’m just gonna I bet him top 10 I’ll
Take that you know like if he finishes ninth I think that’s a win-win because a Ninth Place finish I don’t think is’s even gonna justify playing Scotty this week but see here’s so here’s the problem this week and I’ll be interesting to hear what you’re GNA say
Is so if you’re not if you’re not playing any Scotty like it’s so you say pivot so it’s like so for me like Rory like Rory right now he you know it’s been out there that he’s missing on approach left everything’s left you know so yeah he doesn’t fit the course
Anyways you know he cannot use his power his length off the tea here and so you go down to Xander you know Xander you know I mean he’s even admitted in his press conference that you know he struggles here um and so you know I know you may have some thoughts on Justin
Thomas like I do but yeah so are you starting like who are you starting with if you’re not going Scotty the majority of my lineups are going to start in the 9k range with Max and Windam I’m gonna just kind of go straight to them and go
Heavily balanced and try and just Jam Five n to 8K guys in there with a 6K 5K golfer and just see how that goes you know taking taking one shot on a on a on a 5k 6K which you would have had to do with Scotty anyway and then hope that
Those five studs or at least really good golfers can kind of pull together for me and just kind of hopefully I can find the right combination of of the likes you know so I’ll get to those guys that I’m kind of leaning into I’m seeing Patrick kley under
10% he’s just like to me that’s a situation that I’m cool with I’ll go to him as well but I’m not going to only have to play me like 15% of your lineups to get 2x the field almost so I’ll do that in the 10ks maybe a bit of Xander
As well and then kind of just lean heavily on wendam and Max in the nines there so that’s pretty much giving away my whole strategy of the first few ranges yeah but you know we don’t have to typically do the show how we normally do but you can chat to me about other
Golfers you’re in the mood for if you if you want to chat about JT and the likes yeah and we both talked about this like I have JT at 12% right now now you said around 15 and so you know yeah there’s a good maybe a decent chance he
Gets higher than that but I mean for me one of the things when you have volatility okay so what’s the opposite of that it’s consistency and so that’s one thing I’m I’m trying to key on here and and maybe other people will do that too and maybe that’s the reason JT’s
Ownership will start to climb here but you know that’s course history here and again I know that doesn’t mean as much here because of of the unpredictability but he’s never missed a cut in eight trips and I think the old JT is is back you know he’s he’s been top 12 in five
Of his last six and really after Sheffer I trust his ball striking more than anybody else in this upper tier and so you know with all the water with all the trouble you have all these you know elongated waist bunkers you have you know the rough three and a half
Inches you know last year was the first year they bumped it up an entire inch and you know reports now even you know this week so far about how how thick it is and so you know ball striking is going to be so huge and so I think JT is
Is probably my second favorite up here um you know I think Victor at 101 is you know a fair price considering his form has not been well um but again he’s a guy who you know I’ll just kind of lean on that ball striking and you know I
Know the around the green play is something he is kind of made strides and now is very inconsistent again and so what to make of that um but um I would I would say JT is two and then Victor would be my third favorite up here I was hoping and anticipating
Victor being the least owned of them all in this range but maybe the 10K I mean maybe if you switched in with JT JT’s price maybe that would have leaned him there but I think $10,100 for a guy that’s arguably got one of the best course histories Year too is is going to
Be what people go to so uh you know I I’ll leave him alone as well I think just a little reasoning why I’m going to kley as well his his metrics don’t look very good he played well at the Genesis which to me is a bit more of a a less
Brutal like brutish golf course you know he hasn’t played well at Bay Hill he has he doesn’t play well at the farmers you know these courses that have these narrow Fairways with thick rough just don’t seem to treat him well I think he’s a plotter despite being a really
Good driver of the golf ball which has dropped off a little bit this year but because he’s played these courses so we’ll see what he can do but he’s played while at harbort toown Ron you know if if you want to kind of comp it a little bit Harbor Town’s not a terrible
Situation there for kley and I think you know he grades out really nicely from a com course perspective for me so I’m gonna P West PGA West you know there’s there’s a lot of nuances about those kind of courses that lean into into s grass with the Florida type kind of just
Differentiating it there a bit but I’m cool I’m cool with that you know I’ll play him a bit maybe a bit of Xander because both of those guys are they’ve been incredibly consistent for the most part Xander in particular just are never going to find me betting them outright they’re the
Only two golfers that are going to have to win twice to make your money back on them if you’ve bet them every single tournament you know Scotty was there until he won last week like everyone’s saying Scotty’s this world beater on the last time you won a tournament before
Last week was this tournament you know like I guess the Euro you know but like whatever 16 guys you know so what say I mean I know I mean you make good points um and again I think it’s it’s been overstated probably about his putting but again I mean when has he
Had a bad when has he had a bad week T to Green like has he had one in the last two years I mean I haven’t you know I know just what I’ve seen I I don’t remember one you know um and so I don’t know it’s just yeah I mean
You do you do Save A Lot if you do come down from Scotty because of the high price yeah so you know it’ll be really windy so it’s going to be birdie Fest out there you know like if that P doesn’t show up he’s gonna have to
Really I mean what you what do you think the winning scores this week does that change your opin if I said 22 underp wins this thing does that change your opinion on Scotty probably a little bit and we saw last week you know he thrives in the tougher conditions because you know when
Everybody else you know is is messing up TD green you know his ability to separate in those areas or you know get exponentially even even stronger at a place like Bay Hill um so yeah I think that would um and yeah I think the more
I look at Klay you know I know he’s I think his comp courses you know in my model I I run um one of my models is for com courses and like you said at Harbor timej West you know he he’s first out of everyone in this field on similar
Courses and so so you know I think that’s something I probably need to take into account a little bit more this week um but yeah it’s it’s hard up top you know uh and and probably not completely fading any of these guys like I think
What I like to do and I’ve said this many times is when you have stacked Fields up top like this especially as volatile it is is I’m I’m GNA spread it around up here except for Scotty probably maybe a little more on Scotty um and then there’s some guys down low I
Like that I’m gonna I’m gonna kind of build a core and kind of you know just kind of spread it around up here as best I can and you know let the chips follow where they may cool yeah you got to take a stand somewhere right and I think
Where you do that is up to your discretion it’s just you got to you know I think you got to get overweight somewhere in order to kind of have success this week in a volatile and you’re either going to blow up if your guy misses or if he makes it through you
You’re looking pretty and I think that’s kind of what you’re looking to do yeah you know I think you have to make sure that when you have these guys get through you got T tons and tons of six4 sixes that have made it through because you went aggressive so let’s dive into
The nines will zelot Taurus is looking like one of the most second most popular golfer in the field outside of a few 6K 7K options down there that are also pushing like 15% but Willie Z sitting around $9,900 pushing 20% ownership maybe in the 15 to 20% range there for
Sure coming off he’s he’s the opposite of Cy Timon so I’m going to just use that same Theory and fade will Z because he’s come from the farmers the Genesis Bay Hill three courses that are just brutish venues that re require impeccable ball striking that walot Taurus does and the kind of ball
Striking that you know long isons out of the rough that’s not going to be the situation yet like when you when you’re in the rough this week you got a pine tree in your way or pine needles or a mogul you know it’s not the rough that’s necessarily that penal compared to Bill
I know you mentioned that it’s a an inch longer now but it’s it’s not like a distinguishing thickness that really prohibits your ball from advancing as far as you would like you know you’re just not going to hit it close close so I’m going to kind of leave him alone and
Go to two guys that are kind of also peeking under the radar not so much Windam Clark but more so max Homer where I’ve been waiting for Max Homer’s putter to really start showing up the last seven rounds of golf Ron hasn’t lost Strokes putting he’s been gaining he
Gained seven seven rounds of golf he gained 10 Strokes putting so that’s looking good he’s been playing nicely the ball striking is ass but guess what at this golf course his ball striking has been impeccable around TPC s grass for some weird reason I don’t think he’s
Lost Strokes in the last eight rounds around off the te at at sass so like the driver or whatever he’s hitting off the te’s is looking good I’ll take that same thing with w Clark he gained like 4.8 Strokes off the tea the last time he played you everyone’s going to probably
Be thinking okay look he can’t do anything with the with his inaccuracy of the te he’s only going to hit those those drivers on the par fives you know and he he dominates par fives anyway so we’ll see what that happens and if he’s looking like Windam Clark’s going to be
10% after finishing second at Bay Hill I just got done watching full swing and when his confidence is high he makes putts that’s what he says that’s what his sports sports psychologist says too so I’m going to believe both of them and his confidence could not be higher after
Basically losing to the best golfer of our of our era you know call it the last 10 years last week right at a big boy contest so we got enough we got the players like Windam Clarks got the US Open Wells Faro Pebble Beach signature
Event I mean next up is the Players baby you know give it to me let’s go so I’m going to be 25 35% easy easy with these guys Max and Windam will be stacked in a lot of my lineups I love the you know the flexibility they give me so I’ve
Spoken a lot about them but those are my two favorite options I’m going to be leaning into them heavily sprinkling in a bit of aberer Shane Larry Jason day situation there I think it’s really interesting how these first three players in the 9k zator matama Clark like those three guys
Are in really good form right now and you know you see this price increase and as much as you think like zal you know he fits his course um you know I kind of agree with you on you know this may be the week where you know he’s played a
Bunch of weeks in a row here you know um tough courses um I think again don’t have anything you know research based on this but I just think this is a week maybe he takes a little step back don’t think he’s quite up to that price um
Hideki is won probably out of these three probably still my favorite one I think the best time to play Hideki is when his form is sharp and every part of his game is clicking at the moment you know two top 10 in his last three here
At sass so he’s played this course a bunch he has the experience um so yeah he’s my favorite um I would say Max H you know I think you know he’s he’s one of four players here with top 25s in the last two years six last year 13th in
2022 you know and people are acting like you know he’s and he hasn’t been playing up to his level of last year but still he’s got four top 16s this year you know and last week you know eth at Bay Hill so I think he showed last week the life
That we were looking for and yeah I do think you know I’m seeing him right around 10 12% in that range and so I think I think Max this is a definitely a week where he can um kind of rise to the occasion and so I agree with you on him
There probably my other guy and and there’s some just some really interesting names down here it’s like how do you not play Shane Lowry at 91 he’s is in such great form you know you got morala down there you know still as as bad as he’s been this year you know
Missing the cut last week in an event where you I mean hardly anyone missed the cut um again the ball striking like what do you do with that um but but for me like my other guy and I know he might be a little more popular than I would
Like but Sam Burns you know four top 10 in his last six you know I think his his allaround game is is really intriguing here and so he would be my other guy down here kind of on the bottom um I don’t think um you know cam young I
Again when you talk hor fits when we talk you know confidence levels you know he’s one of those guys I just can’t trust completely at a course like this I saw what he had two or three top 20s entering last week had two or three top
20s at Bay Hill in the past I’m like oh yeah I’ll just bet him at minus 12 for a top 20 last week nope not happening don’t feel like putting like just feel like losing five struges spting that week so that’s Cam young for you just he
Always Burns you no matter you kind of touch him but yeah um also you were mentioning everything’s clicking with a Dei R know what’s also clicking with AI he’s back like guys’s walking around there with a numb leg like in round one like I think every tournament we get closer to
Augusta the the likelihood of a wd from ADI gets higher and higher because I think but do you but do you believe him though like it’s I I just I think he almost plays his best when he’s got like some kind of injury or something like he’s had this for a while
I don’t know I’m just scared because didn’t he WD from the players last or two years ago when he was like really having some health issues because it’s he said it’s too close to Augusta I need to make sure I arrest also like you just said what does he even say we we’ve
Never I’ve never heard anything that I understand come out of a Dei matsuyama’s mouth it’s always been Lost in Translation through the translator and maybe that guy’s in the highest piding paid position in sports just completely lying to us in English version of a Dei story so who the heck even knows that’s
My 10 foil conspiracy ad for you guys today but yeah when I’m playing Shane Larry you know he’s playing good golf who the hell knows what he’s going to get up to this week because it is what it is but I’ve bet him top 20 and I’ll be playing him at $9,100
Some other names in the 8K range it’s a fun one too names that have been playing good golf run you know what I’m saying here like if you go balanced you can find some thorough Breads in the stable so I’ll let you go ahead first hit me
With some names and we’ll see if we overlap at all yeah this so first of all I’m skipping all the way down to 86 Russell Henley and when you when you start at Henley at 86 and you go all the way down to to 8K flat like this is probably my
Favorite range um on the entire slate and a group of players I’m going to load up on here um you know I think we have some ownership leverage options here as well but yeah so Henley back toback top 20s here he’s in great form with two top
Four finishes this year already um you know I I put together a a winner Trends piece for the players and again take it with a grain of salt again I know a lot some of these are you know some of them are formulated some of them are course
History related but still he was one of only two players to fit all 10 of those Trends you know excellent T green Fairway finder I think for me his ability to scramble and his Elite iron play inside of 15 yards and this is the toughest course on tour to gain Strokes
On approach from inside of 150 because you have these very really tricky pin positions you have these quadrants on the green where you have to hit the right spot if you want to give yourself a good birdie look and I think Henley’s ability to hit those spots and his
Accuracy is is just really intriguing to me probably my favorite play on the entire board um I got an outright on him early at 75 to one I think he’s down to 45 right now so really love him I think Tony feno now listen listen here
Third best player in the entire field ta green over the last six months okay so again that tto green accuracy to me that tto green consistency is is almost like a safety net for him to at least make the cut and look he’s gained putting
Here five of four of his last five trips I don’t know what you’re seeing I’m seeing kind of 10% range ownership so you know do I think he’s going to win no but I just think his te green consistency at a course like this 800 it’s enough for me to go overweight
On him and again you never know what the putter again we’ve talked about this before certain guys like him they they may be bad for for seven weeks in a row but if you just get that one week where they can Spike you know um so he’s a guy
Um and yeah just just really quick you know sunj showed of life last week as well finishing 18th you know we gained two strokes on approach again he’s always solid off the te you know you want to look at um Florida courses comp courses he’s top three in those um he’s
Eighth in the entire field in bogey avoidance on difficult courses and so um you know I think he’s a pretty good value sitting there at A4 as well um I think Cory Connor people sleep on him still you know same thing with Fina almost his ball striking in this field
Is is really um intriguing to me you know he kind of another guy who kind of limits his mistakes on difficult courses which is why we always see him contending at the Masters and other tough courses you know you saw it again last week um and just rounding out this
Like again this range is just loaded because you know you want to go to 81 Benny on you know he’s gained the third most Strokes in Signature Events this year so he’s he’s proving that he can play in these big boy events he’s got three top eights already this year and
You know when you look at his when you look at his tournament log he’s with every single Club in the bag and I think he’s a real dark horse to win this week and so and then I haven’t even talked about these two guys below I’m sure
You’re going to get to to your boy men wo here but you know sewo men wo um I mean it’s just SE is a perfect skill set for this course you know we’ve already seen him obviously win here back in 2017 um he’s only missed you know we we
Kind of think of C this volatile player who you know he’s going to eject and that does happen occasionally but he’s only missed one cut in the last seven months so I think people are really underrating how consistent he is um and then of course men wo I mean what can
You say about him you know he’s runner up at PJ National you know we’ve talked about him on here many times is just his irons have been so horrible well guess what he’s gained 8.7 Strokes on approach his last two starts and so you know we
Saw him finish six there last year um so yeah this range is loaded um and and this is kind of one of the things for me where if I’m starting with Sheffer I’m taking at least one maybe two probably two guys from this range um next and so
I’ll be loading up for sure cool I’ll give you some push back on seiw just because I understand he’s $88,000 but there’s just not to me even with the course history that he has y on he’s top 40 in at a 63% clip but he’s top 10 in
At an 8% clip you know like he’s so safe to me like if you’re going to be betting a SEIU in a DFS 150 MAX Field I want to know that I’m going to be getting a guy that can at least pop into the top five
Top 10 like quite often is when he’s going to be 15% owned you know I understand he’s cheap but to me I just think I’m GNA leave him alone this week I I don’t know I I can’t deal with him at that ownership you know I’ll go to
Benny an who has you know double the amount of top fives than seei who has top 10 you know so that to me is the a situation I’d rather go to there I’m fully agree agreeing with you on Tony fena at this price at that ownership
Sign me up we’re going to him my only concern with fow is the fact that it’s a big boy field he’s just historically dominated these these crappy Fields but maybe after sucking it up in Mexico he’s he’s got a a lawsuit to potentially settle so maybe he could do with $4 and
A half million do in his bank account so let’s see what Tony feno gets up to this week um Russell Henley R peculiar situation I don’t think I’ve seen anything like this I’ve got a weighted good shot percentage and a weighted poor shot avoidance Russell Hanley from a
Poor shot rate second in the field so no only Scotty Sheffer loses half a stroke less often than Russell Henley then you go to good shot percentage so gaining half a stroke on a single approach shot 99th in the field so it’s just this like crazy situation where he refuses to like
Really knock it close and have you seen what his ball striking numbers have done lately Russell Henley isn’t that guy anymore he’s a Brendan Todd like a better version of Brendan Todd in my opinion the ball striking have has has gone to like mediocrity yet he is
Chipping and putting his way to top fives and top sixes I don’t understand what’s going on with him he’s like morphed so I bet him top 20 and that’s going to be it for me I I can’t trust him that much in a DFS contest when when the the reliable ball striking has
Disappeared and it’s all all short game I would Al I’ll push back on that if you look at his events okay so the one thing I’ll give you is he’s not gaining ball striking in as large of an average as he was you know going back
Last year even but he’s still I think he’s still consistent enough for me um you know even if you look you know he’s had a couple bad events like the sentury he was horrible um he lost six Strokes ball striking there I think that’s kind
Of weighing it down a little bit so um yeah I get what you’re saying though um but for me I think I think he easily could have been higher price than 8600 and um yeah he’s just a guy I really love this week yeah it’s I’m just I’m
Just like flab AED at what his profile’s done it’s just completely flipped itself upside down it’s it’s it’s crazy absolutely crazy so fun stuff you know this is when the nerdy stuff comes out like this it’s I get excited so excuse my excuse me there for a second jumping
Into the sevens Brian chalk Squad Harmon projected 11% right now I don’t believe that I would I would imagine him and Tom hogi will Scotty Sheffer Brian Harman Tom hogi click click click first three clicks of most people’s lineups what do you think Ron yeah I mean I’m seeing I’m seeing
Harmon at 9% right now so um but I do agree with you I don’t believe it yeah yeah I mean look he’s he’s proved time and time again that he can play with the best in the world as evidenced by you know his major last year he’s got three
Top 10 here I think I think for me like the positional nature of this course fits his game you know his short game is always so solid and so if he throws in approach play you know he’s you know 12th at API gained five on approach so
Yeah I do agree with you that he is going to jump up yeah and you know what I say that I’m probably still going to play him because I’ve done a pretty decent job so far of avoiding the chalky chalky guys Topia so if I’m going to
Play chalk at $7,900 I feel like Brian Harman could easily if he was priced at $8,800 there by Jason day and Tommy fatwood would you have bed an eye um probably not because especially with what Fleetwood did last week and day is just kind of middling around so
No I wouldn’t have yeah cam young you know like I think you could fit right into the underneath of that 9k range so I’m going to be playing him I have him as an outright as well as do like half of Twitter I think that that bets
Tipping chart is like literally a third of it was just Brian Harman because I think he came out of what 70 80s to one and everyone jumped on him there Tom hogi oh I got him I got him at 150 to one he was 150 on FanDuel on um I think
It was Saturday of last week and so yeah then he and then he just when when he started climbing up the leaderboard at Bay Hill that’s when he started dropping so yeah I couldn’t believe he was 150 that was a delightful find there on um I’m jealous but 75 I think there’s 60s
Out there I would s even better 60 for him right now the the iron play he showed and if you take a look out of take a page out of arson echr’s book the guy had his best iron play week of his career apparently at Mexico went and
Doubled down on that and had it again at the cognizant and one you know like Brian hman 23 rounds at TPC s grass he’s only lost off the te four times like to me that’s that’s box probably the biggest box to check is making sure that you are
Putting yourself in good positions to hit these greens so I feel like with that kind of off the te play it’s a safe I mean Jesus touch word you know like it’s a safe play because it’s one of the biggest variables at this golf course is drivers
Into the crap and he seems to do a great job of avoiding that he’s very accurate off the tea cool bananas there hogi I bet him top 20 and that’s it dusting my hands and leaving him alone he has the potential to really blow up despite
Being the best IM am player in the world currently you know if if he’s beating Scotty Sheffer on approach he’s the best in the world in my opinion in 2024 at least so he is and that’s a fact I bet him 100 to1 so be it but at $7,800 I
Don’t know if I can take a Tom hogi that’s going to be pushing 20% you know the the short game can easily e him out of this tournament quite quickly and you know if he finishes top 20 then then so be it what are your thoughts yeah so so yeah so hogi
Um I I I agree that he’s GNA be very popular like I’m seeing him everywhere listed um so what I’ll probably do in cases like this where you still have at a pretty good value and again I do agree that he is perfect for this course you
Know he showed that when he set the course record here Saturday last year um so yeah I’ll probably be somewhere around 10% so I’ll be way underweight but I just to just to get him in a few lineups kind of mixing and matching him with some of my other core plays I think
That’s another strategy that you can take where you can you know maybe chop down ownership in half um but yeah like my if we’re talking upper 7ks there’s not a lot that I like up here you know again you see names like Adam Scott and you know he kind of flailed around last
Week and just I don’t think a guy like him has the upside that I’m looking for um so for me like Eric Cole is is really interesting because I’m seeing four or five% here um people I think are kind of forgetting about him a little bit um but
Yeah he rebounded you know missed the cut at the cognizant and you know basically that followed his first week off this year and so I think he’s he’s a guy like sunjay like he he just needs to play every week he needs to play um and so yeah finished 27th here
In his day at sress last year you know we talk about his off the te game which struggles on longer courses where you have to hit more driver well guess what this is one of the biggest less than driver courses on tour I think it’s only 56% of the time you’re hitting driver
And so you know I think the shorter course is going to work in his favor you know we talk about his his you know his play from inside of 150 we talk about his putting Skiller on the green um so I think he’s a he’s a guy that I’m
Definitely gonna be overweight on and you know Chris Kirk is interesting but he’s a guy when you look like I’m not even like Harris English like just go right past him with his six Mis Cuts here um but yeah Kirk has also struggled here um and so he was intriguing to me
At first but when you dig deeper it’s you know I don’t I don’t think I’m going to get there but like I I’ll just take the bottom range here because there’s really only two guys I even like here you know I know um um a lot of people
Will be playing different guys here and there but for me I’m going all the way to Cam Davis and Justin Rose both at 7K flat and you know Cam Davis 34th and my model you know these are the courses he actually plays better at I think his his
Ability to hit iron off these te’s kind of mitigates his wildness at times and so I think you know he played here really well last year um I just really like him coming into this week and Justin Rose is more of like an experienced play like I’m gonna lean on
A guy who’s you know has had kind of an erratic course history here but you know again sixth or last year um and I know you you have your your qualms with with this man but um um I just think if when you can like we say all the time you can
Find something to lean on here and his experience his iron play um his ability to get really hot with the putter you know that’s enough for me even if he finishes top 30 I’ll take a top 30 here yeah he’s 7K 3% that’s fine you know I
Think I’ve been burnt when Justin Rose was 15% at the US Open and I went with him and 50 60% of my lineups you know that’s that’s the reason I have gripes with the man despite being blocked on Twitter by him as well so um I don’t
Mind Jake knp I think people think okay we’ve left Bill played badly at Bill hit multiple mean when you’re hitting your seventh ball off the te On a par five yeah your your ball striking numbers aren’t going to come across that great the next week so I don’t mind him on
Courses like this he’s he’s basically a Windam Clark Li type situation very good iron player very good play nicely at the cognizant you know like that’s all I need to see is if you’ve played well at that course especially for these guys that haven’t been in these designated
Events if you played nicely there I’m going to play you again this week because to me it’s basically the same place I think the cognizant probably harder than Sor grass right like typically but we we saw a bit of a softer one there Steven jger $7,200 one
Of the one of the better drivers in this range I think he can dismantle these short courses he led the field in Strokes gain off the te at the cognizant despite you know it being a plot’s course he he can handle these courses quite nicely and he’s
$7,200 quite safe you know making cuts at a 92% clip obviously the time I I go all in on him with my 149 lups that I forgot to change at the cognizant he misses the cut for the first time in a while but we’ll take that with the grain
Of salt moving on from him I like him a lot emono is another guy I like that mid-range 150 to 200 he’s exceptionally good from that range at times when he’s feeling it and Chris kirkon hasn’t played well yet but his ball striking has been pretty darn consistent this
Year and I feel like he suits if he plays well at PJ National why haven’t you played well yet so I’ll take a gamble on him especially you know like I guess 6% is it’s whatever I’ll I’ll rock him with Chris Eric Cole there as well
So those are my guys Cam Davis run 50% of his starts in the last 24 events have been top 20s that’s insane you know but that he just doesn’t like to get inside the top eight for some reason for someone with that crazy kind of consistency inside
The top 20 he’s only finished inside the top five like 8% of the time anyway let’s get into the 6K landmine range here we have got some names with some course history with some recent form that are going to be make or break situations are they free squares or are
They squares of despairs you know that’s the situation we kind of trying to figure out you let’s talk about Doug gim and mat Pavan I feel like they are two so let me interrupt you here yeah so we’re gonna we’re gonna start our draft here right so okay you ready to go so
I’ll let you go first so we’re gonna each take four players we’re going to alternate and um so basically our four favorite guys is and if you want to go more you can go more but I don’t have a ton down here but uh let’s see where
This takes us let’s see where we go maybe we get six guys maybe we get four let’s go with mat Pavan at $6,700 I’m going to have him in a third of my lineups I’m I’m treating him almost like Mino last week but with a better a
Better Outlook I think he’s he’s Mis he’s mispriced legit mispriced yeah I mean his form has been spectacular you know when you look at um I can’t remember what it was exactly but I was looking at um Strokes gain total in the four months leading up to the
Players and every single wi of the last 5 years has has gained at least 1.5 Strokes per round and he is one of only three players who’s gained I think he’s gained 1.52 and so just amazing form he’s in and so yeah I do love him too um
For me I’ll start here with Nick Taylor I know he has not been great at Saw Grass you know and he’s 6,900 uh but yeah for for a guy who’s you know 25th in the world it this price is just too much value here um you know he kind of
Came out of nowhere um finished um you know in a I think he was 12th last week at Bay Hill um you know he’s in kind of the upper half every key stat that I’m looking at for for this week and so um you know I think this is a great value
Price for him at 66900 I’ve got an outout on Nick Taylor um I’ll be making some fun fun Graphics I had 10 outrights this week my hands are broken Ron I had to type up an article of 10 outright ride UPS there been a nightmare I’ll go with Aaron Ry at
$6,400 I like his course history sh 6% okay um which is a bit steep but you know we’re going to if we’re doing a draft just versus you and me so be it um I need to beat you first right before before the rest of game so I’ll take
Aaron Ry I like his safety you know the fact that he’s gonna ball strike this place to sleep whatever happens with the short game happens with the short game I will go I think someone you were about to say um but Doug gim is playing the best golf of his career right now
And so if you look at his last four starts um 13th 12th eth 16th and and he’s played well here too um and so again he’s another guy where you know you get into this range you want to lean on that ball striking and you know just
Kind of hope maybe this is the week he kind of has a spike ping round yeah I bet him at Triple Three for a top 20 you know just I’m leaving him alone in DFS I he’s gonna break hearts or he’s gonna finish inside the top 20 and and Cat me
That b so I think that’s the kind of way I’m dealing with him this week when mup Pavan is half the ownership of Doug gim what are we doing like what are we doing you know like I I hope that comes through because I will be very happy
About that some other names this is going to be fun I wasn’t quite I changed my color coding here last little bit let’s go with I’m GNA go with a curveball yon CT pan $5,600 as my third guy he’s been he he kind of fell down the leaderboard at the
Cognisant over the over the final round been playing good golf though you know I think he even made like the likes of Adam Scott and and other people weren’t even making the cut around beill if you’re telling me CT Pan’s gonna make the cut in a designated event like that
At Bay Hill you know like CT pan that that doesn’t suit his game at all like this golf course like the cognizant is where he can Thrive so $5,600 I’ll I’ll go with CT pan see what he can do got a what a a casual third a 28th and a 51st
In the last three starts at $5,600 I feel like he can do some damage around you had a 46th and a 72nd before covid yeah it’s amazing form right now for for CT um my favorite play down here and a guy that I’ve been on a bunch this year kind
Of waiting for him to turn the corner he he did it a little bit at the cognizant which again is a similar course um 6200 Ryan Fox Okay a guy who has multiple victories on the DP World Tour and kind of the thing for him is a lot of these
Courses he’s seeing for the first time and so you can kind of anticipate some of these struggles but guess what he played here last year he finished 27 so he has a little bit of experience um he gained you know the basically his ball striking especially an approach has has
Kind of struggled over his last you know extended time but when you look at at PJ National he gained 4.1 on approach um and so I think he’s another guy who can lean on some experience um has played plenty of difficult courses in his career so far um has played in multiple
Majors and so I just think getting someone at 6,200 down here with the experience and the skill that he has and that he’s seen the course and that he had success last year I think that’s you know one 2% ownership I’m seeing right now um I will be I don’t know the number
10 12% but I’ll have a good deal of Ryan Fox cool yeah I mean he’s he’s not playing good golf I don’t know if a lot of people have realized he played nicely last year I was scrolling through matchups Ron and I saw a Thomas dietry matchup and his opponent had plus 100
Next to his name it’s Ryan Fox then I was like oh smash play and then I went and took a quick peek before I hit the button and geez he’s been playing bad you know like so I think from a DFS play I’m fine with that I really wanted to
Bit against Thomas diet because I feel like the golf course is going to eat him up again I mean he he melted down so hard at the cognizant so I’m really like just laughing here lot thinking about what D is gonna get up to you know just such a
Handsome guy that just can’t seem to get it together right now so I hope he does at some point but I might just still sprinkle a little bit what do you think you think Fox beats dri at plus money plus 100 oh well yeah I’m jumping on
That thanks for pointing that out no I I I obviously like Fox more than you do um I think yes his overall form has been poor but again 35th couple weeks ago so I think he’s I think he’s headed in the right direction yeah and with matchups
This could be a literally like who finishes dfl at some point you know like it’s dri is going to be in the lead but you can still win it with your guy missing the cut in Epic fashion so I might just you know maybe go with that
Because I had a gut feel and I think you gave me enough love Billy hell $6,600 give it to me finished nicely at the Windam to end the year on the PJ tour went over to Europe played some good golf there came back finished top 20 at the Sony then finished eighth or
Ninth I think or call it a top 10 at the cognizant I thought he was playing some really good golf there had you given him maybe another round he would have been you know flirting with the lead there I feel like with that kind of an overlap
On that kind of course at this kind of price at this kind of ownership I guess he’s 7% but you know what I’ll take it you know at $6,600 we still got a whole bunch of 5K guys that you could still play so give me Billy hell I don’t mind
That price at all I feel like he’s he’s due yeah there’s a bunch of guys in this range and I’m gonna be playing somewhere around five six 7% I mean you could talk about Lucas Glover at 63 you got Adam senson multiple time tour winner at 61
Um mean Ben Griffin at 6K flat I mean I Taylor Moore he loves these short courses he’s at 5900 I even think Sheamus power if you look at his last two starts 21st and 31st and so you know he’s he’s a guy who maybe kind of on the
Rebound here uh for me kind of courses Ron for Sheamus is like these short positional tracks is exactly where you want to play him and with water danger he seems to have a above his Baseline for me though my last play here is going
To be Sam Ryder 5600 you know he 21st at PJ National a couple weeks ago very accurate you know whether it’s his driver his irons um exceptional approach play um so yeah he’s made the cut here the last two years so he’s a guy who I
Think can give you a little bit of consistency hopefully kind of at the bottom of your lineup I had a top 20 on Sam r at the cognizant run at plus 500 water ball on on the finals 21st yep so if you’re taking that kind of um Crossover with the cognizant he’s
Also I think had three consecutive top 10 at the cognizant and then the 21st bet him for a top 20 so brutal stuff there but I love that I love that he likes these kind of courses too he is a Florida guy isn’t he I think like it was
His home track was the cognizant or something like that maybe yeah I know he’s from Florida at least because I think I was looking at his Instagram and he was saying something about that so Ron let’s do one more guy has to be from the
Fives and I’ll I’ll get to go first or do you want to pick no you go first go first Ben Silverman 5 $500 if you take a look at Strokes G total over the last this season he’s 54th and he’s $5,500 corn fairy to a guy I think he played
Quite nicely down at the Puerto Ric open and it’s just been good he’s been in the mix man like the guy hasn’t messed around on the PJ tour 18th at the Sony like that 13th at Mexico 16th at the cognizant it’s going to be a big boy
Event for the first time in a while but he’s $5,500 just needs to make the cut in my opinion at this price tag so let’s go so my guy down here and there’s I mean you got some options you got Alex SMY great ball Striker I’m gonna lean on
Someone who has had a rough return to the PJ tour but Gary Woodland sitting there at 5400 has not played well um probably not the best course to kind of figure out what’s wrong with your game um but he he’s not been missing by a ton um
Ball striking wise at least and again if you remember last year he was one of the best ball Strikers on tour until he had to take his lead of absence um so yeah Gary Willen worth a dart throw at 5,400 yeah didn’t he have one of the the
Best cut make streaks at the cognizant you know which again yeah something like that there um I’m trying to remember stuff that I’ve been spewing out my mouth from two weeks ago but should have probably checked in a bit more on that cool I like that if I were
To do a final guy and it had to be and I had like $5,100 I will play A guy by the name of Ryan Moore and the the form is SK skeptical at best the last time he played at TPC s grass was I believe in
2019 made four Cuts in a row here yeah so he’s made four Cuts in a row at this golf course he’s $5,000 flat he’s one of these guys that he’s got no length off the tea but at the same time you know he thrives around these kind of venues so
I’ll be playing him at 5K along with a bit of Steve Stricker who I who I See’s picking up some steam over there at $5,200 I see him at 1% so I think he fits his course you know it’ll be fun to see what he can get up
To any any like completely cheap guy you got your eye on like Joel Damon he just pissed me watching uh Netflix man I am like completely not in on Joel Damon right now no no there’s there’s just too much risk down here I think I think kind of
What you said there there’s enough especially you want to get into that low 8K range low 7K range for me where I’m going to hopefully not have to find many guys down here yeah cool I like it so what were our four guys in this range Ron let’s try try to remember a
Competition we actually have against each other for the first time so I went Ben Silverman CT pan Billy and Aaron Ry and mat pavon yep I got Nick Taylor uh let’s see Doug gim Ryan Fox and Sam Ryder so we’ll write these down right now yeah because we’ve been trying to remember these
Things and we keep forgetting the next time we go along so we got to make sure we keep it tally now we start fresh um and I expect a $1 venmo payment on Monday morning please thank you all right so that’s awesome let’s have a great week here at the Players
Championship I’m taking the rest of the week off as you can tell I’m on vacation already just kind of recuperating before the Masters because we’re going to go hard at the paint there that’s less than what’s four events away now right so it’s around the corner we’re gonna I can
Hear the music in the background all right folks so thanks Ron for tuning in what else you got going over on BET Spurs this afternoon tomorrow I guess tomorrow is the event so yeah yeah we got some uh you know we have my DraftKings ownership article posted in
Online Discord tons of stuff in there so yeah just keep checking in and again check out the rabbit hole if you have not done so yet awesome stuff yep um I’ve been really enjoying some of those screenshots because the the names that show up on there are some that make tons
Of sense and then some are just like um didn’t think about that but that also makes some sense so it’s been fun to see those come across my timeline quite nicely all right folks it’s the Players let’s have a great week ownership’s going to be weird in some places but
Don’t forget to Pivot your face off
