@bettorgolfpod from @windailysports with @teeoffsports and @stixpicks discussing all things #ThePlayersChampionship
What is up everybody thank you for joining Nick and I here today for the players championship before we get into all of our favorite Fades plays and opinions from this week’s event I do very quickly want to talk to everyone a little about Underdog fantasy how you
Can take advantage of their signup bonus you know drafts higher and lower options their rival contest there’s a ton of great stuff going on over there nick uh you can sign up with the code bgp to get a 100% match bonus of up to $100 also Nick as everybody can tell that’s tuning
Into the show right now we have decided to do this live today for The Players Championship because it’s such a big event so I know both of us want to thank wi daily Sports Jason Mahi for letting us stream this over on their wind daily platform you can check out all the stuff
That they have going on for TPC Saw Grass I was on their draft cast last night I think the entire site is buzzing with content for everything that they’re doing but this is an exciting move for us Nick trying to do this show live yeah
First time live um I got a beer here as well to uh all the NFL die hards out there that’s usually what we did um so cheers to that but yeah honestly I have a ton of questions for you um I’m taking the stance on Fading Scotty Sheffer I
Kind of hate it but we’ll we’ll talk about that here in a minute um do you have anything new on the betting card I know we did our show on Action Network the only thing I added was Cam Davis to win at 100 to one you’re gonna hate that
Bet too so I kind of hate every bet I’ve made besides the fenale one but we know how fenale has treated us in in the past financially so again take that with a grain of salt but DFS wise I am excited yeah I’m I’m excited if you guys got
Questions fire away or any comments or tell us the pound saying whatever you want to do we are all for it but uh other than that Spencer I’m ready to to go down the board also I think I’m G to change my one and done to Rory is that a terrible
Move I feel like I need a splash everybody that just used Scotty is probably going to use will zot torus or Victor Hind and I had Victor prior and now I’m think I’m off Victor hoplin so I don’t know I was gonna save Rory for Augusta but I have Scotty still in
The chamber maybe I use him at Augusta I don’t know what to do to tell you the truth I don’t love maxom as much as you do I like him but I don’t love him I don’t think I want to use him in one and done to me there were a handful of
Options and to answer the first part of your question I did add one final bet to my card it’s a very minimal card in general but I took Christian bazen out minus 125 over Ricky Fowler in a matchup that’s that’s very Fringe on whether that’s value or not some of the extended
Data that I ran though pushed us a little bit further my models seemed to believe that Ricky Fowler was one of the biggest overachieving players at TPC saw grass in the past we’ve obviously seen the high-end success that he’s provided there it’s been a little bit more up and
Down in recent years uh with last year kind of catapulting back up on the totals that he was posting but I don’t know this is just a golf to me that is trending in the wrong direction right now so trying to figure out a way to get exposure against Fowler I think bazen
How is a good Target in a lot of areas so I like those yeah so I think that’s the only other bet that I haven’t talked about anywhere that I have I think one in done contests are very intriguing this week um biggest purse of the season
I by the way I I think spe is a one in done pick I saw that just pop up in the chat like I like spe that 40 to1 that was one of the bets that I placed early in the week I also think he’s an intriguing oneandone candidate I I think
Some people are going to go in with the mentality that they’re going to go a little bit too far off the radar with their pick and it’s the yes there’s a lot of volatility at the end of the day but we’re still talking about the biggest purse in golf you’re going to
Need to get this correct if you actually want to win a lot of your oneandone contests so um I’m not dipping further than you know a top 25 player give or take like phenow would probably be the bottom end of a name that I would be
Trying consider of what it is um but I mean you and I burned him two weeks into the year so that’s I regret nothing yeah I mean the the only thing I wish I had is the ability to use him about 10 times I could probably get a proper payday if
I did it that way yeah one time it’ll eventually work out yeah Jordy at 40 to1 I dig it my numbers have at 37 to1 as proper for my shop if I were to open one so yeah in anytime it’s Jordy I love Jordy but here’s my thing on Rory and I
Guess this is kind of move into the DFS side of things like I know it’s not good you think of the price you think of the player but he is not hitting the irons well at all and he’s still hanging around T20 like he’s one of the best
Scramblers on the PGA tour in my opinion if those irons Spike just a little bit and he’s hitting a ton of Fairways too so it’s like if the irons just wake up I know like the the mold here is like find iron you know great iron players great
Ball Strikers in general that are in good form and Rory certainly does not check the in form box but dude if they just wake up a little bit is it that crazy that he could run down Scotty no I mean I don’t think it’s crazy that any of these guys could run
Down Scotty we have a very volatile course with there’s a there’s a boomer bust mentality here I guess my biggest concern with Rory just comes down to some of these approach metrics that we’ve seen in 2024 he is outside and and I’ve talked about this on whether we did links and
Locks together really any podcast or article that I’ve written yeah there are so many Cory Trends from players that can scramble and have the weighted proximity that I’m looking for between Z to 150 yards Rory in those ranges in 2024 998th from within 100 yards a 100th
From 100 to 125 127 from 125 to 150 I think he loses one of his great strengths that he does have of his long iron proximity here the par five scoring some of that maybe he can salvage and that’s why we saw him win this event
Like if he puts the pieces together I mean and and and here’s the thing with Rory that I will say that may be a benefit to him I don’t know if you’ve seen all the reports I’m sure you have I’ve heard that this is going to be the
Softest TPC Saw Grass version we’ve ever gotten with this course that the the venue right now is just soaked and wet and uh that is typically where Rory thrives is where he can finally use some of that back into play and the long iron plays come back into the mix with it so
If this does play as a soft TPC soccer ass and and this winning score increases more into that I mean like 20 underpar type of range like Rory can win that type of tournament more than if this plays challenging and it starts getting speedy and fast for sure all right let’s start
On the DFS talk 10,000 and above Victor havland and Scotty sheffler garnering all the ownership I know I said I’m going to fade Scotty I wouldn’t recommend it when I was fading him I was seeing ownership projections a 35 to 38 range which is still crazy high but the
The thing that I don’t like is what it does to the rest of your lineup like you play him and I’ve had a lot of people kind of text their lineup even like my old boss like guys that don’t play are playing DFS this week and that’s
Probably part for the course because you see like even the $5 mme now is 100k prize instead of 50k like the pools are much bigger there’s a lot of random people that are going to come in which is great for the game golf like people are going to watch the Players um maybe
New DFS people are born after this week so I’m all for it I’m all for growing the game of PJ DFS um so I’m I don’t know I’m just not in like obviously Scotty is the best player in the world and could certainly walk backwards and win this event by five
Again but 128 do you know what a salary was last year if you give me one if you give me a second I can give you the answer I mean it’s going to be substantially lower than that just because we have now moved this down into
$5,000 yeah I was going to say they didn’t have that last year either so maybe it is like relative to the salary cap similar to last year I’m sure it’s maybe a little bit higher because obviously his form is absolutely incredible and all the buzz off of
Making putts great so one great weekend of making putts I like I don’t know I think you said it best the volatility of the course I’m okay with just rolling the dice but for full disclosure I’m not maxing out the Millie maker I think my decision would be significantly
Different if you know my the my risk out there is 5X what it would be maxing out the $5 tournament so for me playing the $5 tournament it’s been a really good year for me in that last couple weeks have not been very good so again like I
Don’t want to have to push my my risk this week to go chase a million dollars like the old me probably would have done that and this year I’m just kind of saying like I want to have 5x the bank roll to go take a Millie maker like to
Go after that so and again like my historic success has never really been at the Players it’s always I’ve always done very well for some reason at the Open Championship obviously we know the Heartbreak of what happened there and I’ve talked about it too many times but
Even the year before that and the year before that like the Open Championship has been very good to me I’ve always been very good for the most part at Augusta National so like I’d rather go chase those Millie makers and assuming that I keep growing my bankroll until
Then so I’m not playing the $25 Millie maker like maxing it out I’m sure I’ll hand like five just because why the [ __ ] not but um so for me only risking $5 a lineup at 150 Scotty Sheffer fading like it I’m okay if I lose everything and it’s whatever the
Entry is 750 bucks like to me that’s fine or whatever like you should just know what your bankroll is what contest you’re going into and are you okay if things just go completely belly up just like DFS personal advice um so to me if I lose everything that week with Scotty
Fading Scotty I could sleep at night if it was a $25 melee maker and that is 5X my entry like of course not like I wouldn’t fade Scotty because I need to play some sort of Defense I would play probably 30% Scotty in that situation so
Having said that I also don’t love the lineups it gives you when you’re paying that much for Scotty I don’t love a lot of the guys in the 5K range I’ve heard a lot of different podcasts and it seems like all of them are talking about like
The same Five Guys and a lot of groups are gonna have yeah it’s like they’re gonna have one one or two $55,000 guys and like two $6,000 guys like to me [ __ ] that um I’d rather like even if Ro if Scotty does win in all these scrubs that you know scrubs in
Their pricing like don’t do that well I don’t think you need Scotty as the outright winner to win in DFS I think when um I don’t know him personally I’ve seen him at the live final a couple times for NFL but I think Big T when he
Won his mil maker at the Players I don’t think he had the outright winner um correct me if I’m wrong if you guys know him and follow along his stuff but I don’t think that that was a case so like I’m not afraid of him winning and I’m not afraid of all the
Stars and scrubs running up the leaderboard with Scotty shuffler so I’m fine taking the 12 12K or a $1,200 hit to go to Rory Rory’s gonna be like 10% owned so what are your thoughts on Rory we don’t need to talk about Scotty people can play him or not play him um
But let’s start with Rory I mean personally I’m out on Rory this week it just goes back to the proximity numbers that I talked about uh to trickle back to the first question Nick Scotty was the third price player on DraftKings last year 10,600 ROM was 118 Rory was
Damn ah well that’s sexy man so that that’s a whole that so he’s $2,000 more and only $1,000 Le more in the salary cap so not the salary cap but in the available tiers of players that’s fantastic so I do like I don’t think it’s the same
Situation so I’m out on Scotty I I get your thoughts on Rory again my position is if I only need 15% to be 1.5x a field in my mme contest which is kind of my goal I want to be 1.5 to 2x overweight in these players so I do have some sort
Of Leverage if they do well if I have to have 15% Rory in My mme I think I’m fine with that and then Xander I always love Xander he’s been a let down all year long but Xander’s 10% too 10 to 12 so if
I go 15 and 15 both of those guys that makes up for Scotty being right around 30% anyway and I don’t think that Scotty is 3x as likely to finished top five as Rory and Xander is which is pretty much what I look at that decision if he’s 3x
The ownership obviously price being a whole different part of this conversation but three times as likely to finish top five I don’t think that that’s the case maybe two maybe one and a half X but not three I think we’ve lost some of the narrative here with this ownership percentage this is a
Hefty price tag for all the reasons that we just talked about Nick this is also the most volatile course in the world I I know I’ve used those words about a 100 times this week on podcast but you know take away his victory last year miscut
In 2021 55th in 2022 the win last year even if you look at the Historical trends of players that have been winning take Justin Thomas Victory 33rd 60th Rory victory in 2020 miscut 33rd miscut these were also golfers at the time that were viewed as a very maybe they’re not
Scotty Sheffer with the ball striking that they’re necessarily producing but a 30% owned player on this course Scotty might win that’s the the that’s the risk that you’re gonna have to like live with like you talked about but from a game theory perspective I I just can’t do it
And and it also comes down to a fact Nick that I love the $9,000 range there are so many players there that I would just rather get little bit more exposure to and try to attack the Scotty sheffler train that’s going to be 30% in that
Fashion yeah for sure um yeah which is what you can’t really do if you’re playing Scotty if you do play someone in the nines then you’re playing those low six and $5,000 screws that we already talked about which everybody’s writing about those guys so again I feel like everybody’s line of construction is
Going to be very similar when they choose Scotty because the price dictates it anybody else in the 10K range like dude Victor havin I’m seeing for 20% ownership I think I’m [ __ ] out on Victor hin if he’s going to be 20% I’m out also I I’ve seen pictures of him
Struggling with certain portions of his game and trying to find stuff and that’s kind of been the mentality that we’ve seen from him for the past couple weeks so um I was I was on the fence to begin with with what to do with havin so it’s
Gonna be an out for me based off of that I do want to have the Justin Thomas conversation just because I I know you do and I’m probably on the opposite end of the Spectrum there with Thomas this week I think there’s a lot and so the
Last four years that I’ve built my model for The Players Championship Justin Thomas and this is a very infrequent answer because it’s always either Scotty or it was always Rory or was always Dustin like before that in in every single way that I would build models
Like it was always going to be those players Thomas was number one for me at the Players Championship in three straight years of building this model just for his expected performances at this track you’ve seen historically with him eight consecutive made cuts at this course he’s been the safest person even
When you threw him into the the wins in 2022 when he was trying to defend his title he goes bogey free 69 on Friday to make the weekend after everybody in that wave got completely decimated and you know if it wasn’t for a poor weekend performance he was right in the thick of
That to win that event I don’t know if Thomas is as back as some of the projections would lead you to believe maybe this is my model just basing things from too long term of a perspective if you run it from a shorter time frame your model or numbers are
Going to like him but this is one of the worst returns I’ve ever gotten from Thomas and it just really stems from a lot of these proximity numbers um Thomas’s irons got really bad in 2023 and now they’re starting to come back together and that’s where it’s like I
Don’t believe that my model is correct in how low it has him but this is an extremely tough course for any sort of predictability year in and year out out and if I have question marks still about where Thomas is and if we’re going to
Get all this ownership on now on top of it I think there’s a reason why and you’ve seen it correct itself a little bit but I think there’s a reason why he’s been an underdog in most situations I think a lot of public money has come
In on him to move it I I would not say that’s sharp movement um people love him yeah people love him he’s the one of the most bet players in the outright Market he’s getting bet in all these matchups but like I I I like havin over him even
With all the dislike that I have to Ain this week there’s a million other matchups that we could run down this board with where he is either a slight favorite or a slight Underdog that I like the opposite side I was hoping on a non- pinnacle book I was going to be
Able to find a Max Homa matchup that’s kind of the route I wanted to go I didn’t see that matchup unfortunately so I don’t have a pure Justin Thomas fade in the head-to-head sector but I’m going to be out this week on on DraftKings and for DFS contest and that’s going to be
One of ways that I guess I try to get different is when I remove Sheffer Rory Thomas at the very top and then I go super overweight to the xanders and all these players in the 9000s I I think it’s just a very unique build that’s
Going to be constructed that way okay JT out what is your ownership you’re seeing I’m seeing 10 pretty much everybody 10 besides Scotty Sheffer up here I see 16 and a half oh okay which makes sense to me I don’t think it’s going to go down at all
Because everybody’s writing about him I to me like at the surface I think the form’s solid I think you know obviously the course history is a mixed bag pretty much for everybody because it’s volatile scrambling I think he’s one of the best scramblers on the PJ tour so I do like
That part about him I do think he was a little too expensive I feel like 10 six for him may be a little too much I would it’s the priceon version of him at the Players Championship if you put this tournament somewhere else I think he’s probably once again in that like 99
Range that he’s been almost every single week all right speaking of then 99 what is the ownership you had for will zot torus because at on the action pod yesterday I was leaning out because I was seeing close to 20 now I’m seeing sub
15 I have 15 15 and a half I may lock button him are you okay with that I like him more than Windam Clark yeah I’m out on Windam and I’m probably out on Hideki I think it’s a little too expensive for Hideki I would agree I never get the
Whole injury injury head fake for Hideki ever right but I don’t think I’m paying 9,800 for Hideki and still like his Sunday round was I think it was really bad let me pull up to Arnold Palmer real quick Nick because you’re trying to find that we’ve said this wait hold on yeah
Sunday was bad um 50th in approach so I know the weather was bad too but he was was he out early no he was out late so he did have some bad weather I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt but I’m out we’ve said this before with Hideki there’s a much different
Viewpoint to be had when Hideki is $88,000 yeah now all of a sudden you bake in all of this recent form that he’s put together and there’s a lot to like about it you throw them up to 9,800 this is one of these golfers historically I I understand he just won
At the Genesis but this is a golfer historically who has a lack of win equity in a lot of these spots won the Masters too he’s done some great things throughout his career it’s not every single time but there are a lot of moments where he becomes popular he
Moves all the way up the board in the price tag the ownership follows and he disappoints so I think he’s too expensive for that reason more than anything I am out I am out on Windam I am out on I’m I’m probably going to be out on
Zalatoris dude that’s I see Max hom is a 20o favorite to him at bada so I I don’t mind bat I think they they move with good money so I I think they move with any money but what can you say bad about zot torus because the procs has to be
[ __ ] amazing he’s actually scrambling this year he’s hitting Fairways the putter is always going to be sketchy but he’s getting Strokes putting shout out to lab Putters but I don’t like his ta green grades fifth for me and expected Strokes T degree I think he gets worse in my
Opinion if this course plays softer there we go yeah good question I I I hate the around the green metrics at the end of the day this is another spot where a month ago zalatoris was I mean what what was zalatoris like at the Genesis even like I 55
60 I I mean it was something that was super like like that’s just that’s my that’s my thoughts on this though it’s like now we’ve gotten this price surge with him also where there is still ownership like even at 156 is it a price surge though is it a price surge
9900 I I think margin he could win I don’t think he should be more and we’re nitpicking here but I also think you have to nitpick to an extent when you’re trying to narrow down a player pole I’m not as opposed to him as I would be to the Justin Thomases of the
World here but I I think he should be like 93 to 9500 and have less ownership like really if we’re really being serious about this but I I don’t know I am just so bullish on four players in this range and maybe that’s where I’m getting this like I
Know who it is and he’s cheaper and he is a [ __ ] huge favorite to the whole world and his ownership is not bad right now I see Max hom at 12 yeah I love hom I love spe from a contrarian standpoint um I like what we doing morawa 22%
Market loves Market loves him um I’m I’m out I think I am out also I I never get him correct though that’s kind of always the one thing I try to preface it with that if don’t play morawa he seems to do well and when um the opposite happens it
Goes in the reverse but um I don’t know I rather play Sam burns like I’m really high on Sam Burns this week I think we’d be in a completely different spot with his perception if he didn’t fire a 78 on Sunday at the Arnold Palmer so that is
My way that I’m G to try to get very unique because I’m just going to be extremely aggressive on those four players specifically probably Max H there um there are so many factors that my model likes about him I I mentioned this yesterday on links and locks I’ve
Written about it in articles too but that 0o to one 15 in the scrambling range that has been the biggest coraly for success of high-end success that my model could find Scotty number one last year Thomas number one during the year he won it Max hom number one this year I
Think he’s trending in the right direction with the form I I know some of the the counting stats that you want to look at have been not exactly what you would want to see with his approach game but because I do have that heightened increase in my model from zero to 150
Yards that’s kind of where my model is really shooting him up further than the projections would be normally inside the top five from that range so I think H is low owned and a very Savvy play love it I’m with you on hom hom and Harmon are
Too nuggety I don’t know what that means players starting to show a bit of form but them both yeah I know you like Harmon will get to that range but yeah I Spencer and all defense of him has been on Max hom since Monday morning when I
Woke up which Lord knows what time that is in Vegas so um all week he’s been on him so anybody else like Shane Lowry looks a little too expensive for me but he’s kind of just playing really really well 9100 seems okay for a guy that
Could top 10 I think that 10th is probably his Peak I don’t think Shane Lowry can can win here and who’s had fantastic horse history and to me he’s just hitting the ball really well um and again the ownership’s not bad again like everybody’s going to play K more Kaa so
Also think for me I can’t handicap him we the [ __ ] but I’m I’m gonna say it I’m a [ __ ] I will not fade L big there’s just something about him that I just believe in his swing is so beautiful I try to mock it myself but you know 15
Years of trying to play golf my swing probably just is what it is um it is St Patrick’s Day for Shane great great point Edward that’s a narrative I would not have even thought of so is is that a good thing probably right I don’t know
He’s going to be he’s going to be plastered on the course that guy can drink better than anybody else I could hang with him I think but he’s no he’s getting too old for that he’s got kids and stuff doesn’t he probably here’s my thoughts about Lowry
And maybe it’s more of an indictment against wendam Clark than anything have you seen where the market has moved with Lowry versus Clark I have Lowry up I did have lry up I have more C up and you’re not lying everybody likes him I see bet 365 still
Has that minus one tennis side so that’s a joke um bet on line minus 144 and FanDuel and Caesars I don’t really care about but yeah they’re moving too yeah massive favorite of a wind Clark which is for me like I don’t want to just live and die by market
Movement but when I when I was looking to fade Windam Clark and I saw that he’s a dog everybody I’m I’m cool I think this isn’t I think this is something that’s worth talking about because we discussed it a lot on the show market movement is not the the the end be all
End all answer to that that is not what either of us are doing they are deal breakers though and tie Breakers in some of these spots if I am trying to find a reason to fade Windam Clark to begin with and my model is wherever it is on a
Certain player bookmaker has Shane lry minus 170 good against Windam Clark like to me that’s just I’m out on Clark at if I couldn’t make a decision doesn’t mean I’m going to play Shane Lowry now all of a sudden because of that reason and I’m probably going to be out even with that
Being all of this being said but um I think he’s okay with the form that he’s presented recently and some of any models that you run are going to find problems with him if you run it for too long term duration of a time I’m running
Things for too long of of a duration of time so Lowry gets a big hit if I ran this for the last 12 rounds I’m sure he’d be inside the top 10 of my model all of a sudden yeah which is what I I I don’t do that recency bias but I’m
Heavier on the recency bias than long term so cool with that um Cameron young yes or no quick answer probably yes not that quick I I guess probably yes probably because of his ball striking yes okay so you’re in on will Zone if that’s your reasoning
I’m I think it’s I think it’s a completely different situation with the price and the ownership though true true Jason day well let’s go below 9k here there were I think he’s overpriced but he’s playing good golf and I know that’s your boy so he’s been good here too he’s
Been great here over the years um great Scrambler yeah that’s part of the reason why um there were three players for me that my model thought were a value like just on its surface level of that answer Henley sewu Kim benon Chuck Chuck Chuck yes and I think that that’s why it’s
Very natural with that answer for me I’m probably going to get rid of benan I’m going to keep Henley and SE Wu just so I don’t play all three of the chalki names there I like your mentality with FAL the ball striking numbers are great it’s the same answer that we’re talking about
With Scotty Sheffer every single week just at like the B level version of it if he could ever make putts the upside is massive and this is a different spot with fenale than we usually get like if fow’s 9700 in this tournament it’s the same answer with Hideki here where I’m
Probably out but all of a sudden now you throw him in this mid $8,000 range he does have the upside to produce so um I am fine with anybody who wants to consider F fena there um I don’t know though like Cameron young at 9000 is probably one of like the more intriguing
Pivot routes to to take on outside of that I’m probably below Market everywhere else I I’m okay with people that want to play Connors I understand it for me that’s it I think I’m out in mme I think he’s also a better cash game Target for that reason
So I’m also probably out there um I mean if we want to talk about if we want to talk about pure upside I do think there’s an intriguing name here hold on let me try to guess I’m playing Tommy Fleetwood I talked about that on action I think
Russell Henley I’ll probably be like 5x a field I think it’s just a fair price for a very good player and I don’t expect him to win but I think he’s he’s got a very high probability of finishing top 10 in my numbers Cory Connor I
Believe I’m out on I think he’s a great cash game play he’s probably a great tournament play too just as like a filler it’s a fair price but I just wonder what the upside really is with him uh Tom Kim is going over like 12% ownership now I think I’d be out there
Um seu I’m fading I I know that that’s not a popular answer I would play him m I think the three guys that you mentioned Benton seiw Russell Henley for sure in my cash game lineup I don’t hate Matt Fitzpatrick I’ve never got this guy [ __ ] right in my life and that was
Going to be my guest Matt Fitz so I think this and I think you you bring up a good point there with what you just talked about this $88,000 section for the most part is probably better cash game options than they are gpp targets uh there’s negative trajectory in my
Model for upside for almost all of these players even if it’s only between Henley and SEIU that’s one of the reasons why I’m fine keeping them in because they have the safety profile and plus they’re neutral when it looks for upside there so I do think those two are good plays
But pretty much every other name benon included in that mix has this negative trajectory for upside and then the positive for the safety markets and those are always better cash game plays there were three options on this board in the uh $88,000 range that did not
Have that profile and I think these are the three intriguing ones if you are trying to get get a little bit different here Tommy Fleetwood you talked about him yep Tony fow you mentioned him sah theala I think Thea has some really interesting upside metrics that you can
Point towards I only see the ownership right now at 7% I have less yeah and I I actually think you will be right that that will be less than that I think I did cut him I’ll add him back in right now all my lineups because they’re dummies I didn’t
Have time to finish my mme and I wanted to talk to you first but I went 100% Steve Stricker so now I know like on my C CSV when I just control find Steve Stricker I just or I’ll keep him I don’t know Stricker you know Wy vet all right
Theala I had a hard time debating on him because I love the ownership yes I think he has upside that can go top five it every time I get this an answer from theala and I also that that is for sure and then anytime I’ve received this positive
Movement for him in my way to proximity that’s been this large maybe not quite as big of a move as we saw at the fortnet when he won that tournament but one of the biggest movers in my model in projected proximity for TPC Saw Grass over his Baseline projection so anytime
We’ve gotten that answer for a golfer that is one of the best scramblers uh there there’s a lot to like did you boys coordinate outfits today David I’m wearing navy blue he’s wearing in Black I maybe I didn’t I didn’t uh I didn’t talk to Spencer about outfit day maybe
We should have what about Fitz it’s like good cop bad cop with you with the white hat and me with the black hat yeah I got my hood up too like you know ready to go into the boxing ring which probably wouldn’t have much success in a boxing
Ring but you know game day I’m excited Min will Le I I’ve made this argument this week Nick I think he’s a better play here than he was last week at the price tag I like I don’t I still don’t know if I’m going to necessarily get to him but um
This to me is a better spot than we had okay I’m in I like him I see sub 10% he’s my I don’t want to say willing Rory into existence but you know if Rory just gets the irons going midw leave for some reason is struggling on the greens which
Historically is the best part of his game if not getting up and down with a wedge his irons are in form so bet on the come for that putter to get back to the Baseline and I think that that is also guy like the gala again when I’m
Playing gpps I’m looking for guys like can they top five in this price range I think he certainly could and see I’m just out on because of the course volatility I’m not playing a guy that’s 20% owned as much as I love SEIU I was
All over sewu last week when he was like 3% owned um the rest of my players kind of sucked but seu came through for me a little bit uh Brian Harmon I’m seeing less than 10% I thought he’d be 20% owned I thought he’d be right there with
Seu but again I I guess when you play Scotty and you play Cory Connor and you probably play Russ it’s RR pushing out yeah you just can’t so Brian Harman I think fantastic play um nothing and I [ __ ] hate Brian Haron if you guys know me and know this show
And of course like it’s probably gonna just [ __ ] the bed but I will take the bait that he found his iron play last week I think all four rounds were fantastic for him it’s a great for him he’s had you know I’m not a course history [ __ ] by any means but it’s just
A little plotter course for little old 51 Brian Harman [ __ ] I hate just even thinking about him just waddling around the course but sub 10% I will be in I will take him over seuk Kim and I will take minm Lee combined both of those guys have less ownership than seuk Kim
So that’s kind of my route is one of those guys if not both because I’m not playing Scotty sheffler I can get both those guys in the lineup I think that’s just another way for me to have offside so cool with that um couple other guys I
Had Tom Hog’s ownership’s not that crazy I thought he be 30% so yeah so who had that question uh Joe V trades Tom hogi I think you just have to play him right great course history his iron game is I believe First on tour in 2024 I wrote
That yeah number one and he is number two in my expected Strokes G approach he is uh number two for me also yep so yeah I’m in on that I thought this ownership was going to be 25 plus percent every single time I have updated this it has dropped and I think maybe
That’s a little bit too much of that group think mentality that keeps coming into play of it’s a like I I agree it’s a if you told me this is this is a volatile course at the end of the day but um I I don’t think that hogi is
Correctly priced I think he should have been more expensive than this at 12% I think he’s probably one of the better values on the board just across the board there at 12% yeah the way that I’m building I can afford his ownership because I think the way once you cut
Scotty everything opens up for you on it like you you can start picking out some of these chalkier options in any of these ranges in reality for the record I’m not telling anybody it cuts Scotty I’m just letting you know what I’m doing and it probably won’t work but I
But but Nick I think if you actually want to win one of these large field contests to me that’s really the only way that you can go from like a roster construction and a game theory perspective of it if you’re actually trying to win in single entry it’s a
Different answer we can play Scotty and that’s fine and any of those things like we’re not saying Scotty is a bad pick here we’re not saying that Scotty shouldn’t be played there are contests where Scotty makes a ton of sense and in those contests if he’s like 60% own I
Would understand it’s just I think in these large field contests at 30 plus percent I I I have worries Ju Just from a game theory perspective not even because of Scotty yeah 100 perc I’m fading him a single entry too so again whatever I’m going all in but
Yeah for mme like I play mme to finish first or last and I didn’t see myself winning playing Scotty so he’s out 7K range did I have a ton of headaches Harris English I’m like eh keegin Bradley whatever JT poon probably out Eric Cole I don’t mind I like Cole and Poston you
Like Poston okay I’m okay with Poston if you like him then 5% cool with that Adam Scott yeah your name I don’t know how many times I can play this guy and get it wrong I I feel like but but I like everybody I like Chris Kirk if no one’s
Gonna play Chris Kirk I know the market doesn’t like Chris Kirk I like Adam hadwin which I know you do too I thinkwin I was very high on him last week he was my top 20 bet that fell apart I like Keith Mitchell I like yeah
But it’s like I don’t know eventually I want to absolutely Hammer Christian bazen Hout and I think that this is the move where he’s 2% owned and a nice plotter course and again iron play is in fantastic form outside of last week and that like dude that’s not a course for
Him at all especially with that weather too so I like Bez but it’s like do I play him to get rid of Keith Mitchell Adam had when Kirk M Scott like I don’t know who to cut so 78 of that3 I would cut as of now I believe I
Was cutting Scott I believe I’m going to cut Ricky I am completely out on Ricky okay I will be out on Ricky EVR I’m seeing 5% I thought he’d be 10 I think I’m gonna be out on EVR I I agree and then Grio I like but
If he’s going to be close to 10% I’m seeing nine what do you see for Grio eight [ __ ] him then he’s out yeah sorry Grio if you’re listening um probably should be on the range right now but I did take Grio out nice all right I’m a little contrarian guy and I
Didn’t even know it all right Ricky’s out so my 7K player pool right now is Jake nepp just because I see like 1% now and I’ll bet on Talent all day I don’t think it’s a good course for him but I like his swing too it’s so long and
Impossible for me to recreate when I tried to in the garage but uh Alex norin I know you and I have great history of that blowing up in our face Bez I love Keith Metro I safe Adam Scott I do have in I think I’ll take him
Out Eric Cole hogy Harman so I think you hit on every single person that is in my player pool currently wonderful I don’t think there’s anybody else that you I think Jagger would be the the other one that is worth considering um good upside numbers in my model I like
Where the ownership is sitting for me right now he would be the other name that I would throw into the mix there but the German Hammer I love playing him and now everybody loves playing him so I’ve kind of been the what ownership do you see right now two so there’s no
Reason not to play like if I if I just go 4% because like when they get down below 5% I like to go 2x the field minimum all right I’ll put Jagger in what are we doing with Nikolai hoard is he broken right now because that dude
Has a ton of upside when I run it for long term but when I go recent no boy no I love Hoy guard he was [ __ ] but wait wait let me let me finish the statement Nick I love hoard’s talent I don’t think he is playable right now with his
Current state of his game like players like him and Justin Rose and some of these names are just so off with their performances Ricky Ricky Ricky is like the prime example of that um I just think they’re unplayable like there there’s other ways to create leverage well not going with those joerger would
Be one of those examples Baden Hout would be another example Jake knap Jake knap really wasn’t that bad last week if you take away his 12 yeah it’s the same as what Roberto and I were talking about with Tommy Fleetwood yeah like it says he lost three Stokes approach or
Whatever he lost five on one hole because he went 10 cup and we’ve all went 10 cup before Alex noron yes that is that is Spencer and I’s father is Alex norin and he’s probably old enough to have conceived us at the age of 18 so
Um which is I don’t know what’s legal in Sweden to conceive a child but I don’t know if there’s even legalities I don’t know we’re getting on a rant but okay so you talk about recent form and playing them that’s what scared me about JT
Poston yeah I think I could be okay not playing JT Poston I guess the thing I liked about Poston and and maybe maybe this is an incorrect assess of the situation so last week there were three players I guess for me if we’re talking specifically inside of the
Betting Market that I thought were the most or maybe maybe minwu wouldn’t exactly make it in the betting Market if you added him for DFS he would but I thought I thought Poston and Brian Harmon were the two most mispriced players in a bad way on the betting
Board last week that’s why Harmon’s performance was even more enticing to me he gains 5.6 Strokes with his approach game he comes in 12th Place at a venue that I did not find any reason that he should find success I know Poston came in 55th Place that’s not necessarily
Something that’s great he did move backwards on the leaderboard over the weekend and maybe where that’s where the bad form comes into play but that was not a course for him that I would expect him to have success and when we look at his his long-term duration of courses he
Would play he always he seems to pick the courses that benefit him the most and he now with this elevated schedule that he has to take on is playing a lot of courses that don’t necessarily fit his game I do think the players if the
Form can kind of return to where it was at very little ownership I I think he’s very very hit and miss this week I I think he has a lot of miscut potential but I also think he can pop better than a lot of these other names like Eric
Cole would be a very similar answer for that so you like Eric Cole more or Poston more I could play both I guess technically because I could just go 6% minimum exposure and all these guys and hope one of them’s a runner it’s a it’s a tough qu I think
They’re very similar to one another I I would say any of those guys that we’ve talked about um are kind of in the same mix there okay nor and included I mean like all these guys make a lot of sense Baden how like these are all players
That I want in my player pool right on yeah Bez I think is going to be like a like I do get crazy aggressive on some players I think if Bez is 2% I will probably go to 15ish yeah and have seven and a half times exposure or whatever
That math is all right below 7K we’re out on Justin Rose we talked about him uh Cameron Davis 7% like any of these guys in the 7K range that are low sevens and sixes that get to like above 10 I’m I’m just out so as I know I did bet
Cameron Davis 100 to one I think one day he is going to destroy elevated events and fifth Majors like the players I think it is a good course for him we’ve been on Cam Davis Club Down Club down cam we’ve called him like three years
Ago and I think we’re on the S the irons are peaking is that a stupid fade or is that okay I will pull up the market on Cameron Davis I see a massive favorite to Kurt kadama which means nothing to me I see even money on Pinnacle to Keith Mitchell
Which intrigues me massive favor to Luke list and 10cent dog to Chris Kirk 10 cent dog to Denny McCarthy oh I’m out on Denny McCarthy by the way I am also I I think [ __ ] DAV Davis I think Davis a lot of these weeks always possesses intriguing
Upside um that’s kind of his Ace in the Hole that he can pull out at any moment he also has a lower floor than that’s the thing most of these guys ownership not a great scrambler I’m at at 8% down in this range I’m probably
Out if this was a situation where he was like 2% owned I think you have a different discussion because then you can actually uh take a little bit more of that risk on without having to be overweight into a an area that you wouldn’t want to be and and to me the
Keith Mitchells and any of the other names that we’ve talked about that we just keep mentioning over and over again these are much higher floor players with two three% ownership in all these spots yeah and honestly if I had to like gun ahead I’m fine saying that Alex
Noren you know Bez is $400 more so I won’t put him in the conversation I’d rather have more exposure of norin joerger and Jake knap all at 2% each and honestly Nick Taylor 6,900 I’m surprised his ownership’s below 5% I thought he’d be chalk and I don’t hate Bo Hustler I
Know the market hates Bo Hustler I’m okay with Bo Hustler anything to get off Doug gim Chu so I will play Bo hler for that reason um but yeah so I’m out on gim I don’t think we need to talk about the gim Reaper at all
Do we I I don’t have anything to say I actually think there if you’re GNA Play Chalk down here I I do think there’s one name that’s kind of worth considering um RT Aaron Ry [ __ ] dude 20% Aaron Ry if he’s 20% I don’t have it as high as you do is he
19.1 another sword dude no way what has Aaron R ever done he’s going to hit every Fairway and finish t47 20% of the field can [ __ ] have at at 20% though unless I mean really if you’re anybody I’m pretty much out on that total so like scratch that that I I
Still don’t know if he gets that high just because yeah I I have it closer to where David has it um D says 11 I have an aggregate that is uploaded as of an hour ago right before we started in I see1 19 and I trust this source
I’m always I feel like I’m always a little bit low on some of these ownerships where they’re chalk um I think he’s fine at 11 I am at 19 I’m out at 15 I’m out we don’t we don’t play punt chalk it’s rule number 17 or whatever Steve says in Discord at wind
Daily which definitely check it out I believe we’re giving free trials or whatever and you could Hammer at us all day Alex noron go collect let’s top 42 the caddy this guy speaking my language the books just took away top 40s and we feared this in the offseason
With all the elevated events that like my most profitable Market was top 40s and now I’m like pushing myself to top 20s and just getting my ass handed to me hey go season we will touch on that I’m in um Nick Taylor though I think extremely safe has great iron form good
Putter good Scrambler much higher upside than Denny McCarthy well that might be where some of this ownership distribution that you have versus where I have changed because I have Nick Taylor slightly higher than you do I mean it’s I still think he’s in a playable range of where he’s at but
Maybe that’s where I’m a little bit lower on Rise ownership and um I don’t know I mean I guess my answer to that would be figure out what sources you trust keep checking throughout the night I if that number looks like it’s trending towards 15 plus I agree with you Nick I
Would be out um it could be 10% for Aaron R I’m [ __ ] out what has Aaron R ever done I think are talking themselves into playing Doug gim and Aaron Ryan and pairing it with Scotty sh for good [ __ ] luck well I think that’s I think
That’s the bad way that you go about it I think if you’re playing those three and that’s what everybody’s going to do it’s Scotty and all these random $6,000 golfers that have all the ownership like pavon and and all these names that are just get continuously getting thrown into the mix Brenan
Todd I like Brendon Tod that is your funeral what is Brendon Todd GNA do him and Aaron I could share t47 together I hope they get lunch after the round what are what is Brennan Todd going to do Brendan Todd has been good this year he’s okay let me pull him up
What is he actually done though no hold on technical difficulties here we say this would be a professional show T6 at Arnold Palmer t22 D BR and Todd I’m sorry buddy if the Todd family’s listening I’ve been [ __ ] on you this guy’s a walking top 30 in good Fields yeah [ __ ] BR Todd
Great Scrambler he’s top five in my expected Strokes game scrambling does the soft conditions in his little short porch game like hurt him a little bit maybe I mean I think you could make that argument very soundly what do you see for ownership on Brenan Todd like he’s a cut maker so at
This price we’re probably looking for cut makers so t47 isn’t a slap in the face to all those that do like Aaron Ry like I guess he’s getting the job done for you I I have him at six and a half percent okay I’m not I don’t hate
It do we have Aaron Ry not as a guy I hate Aaron do we have anybody that is low owned in the $6,000 range that we like yes I have a couple also so I don’t mind Kurt kyama last week I faded I know he was very popular winning there the year
Before which I believe we had at better golf which is pretty cool but good Scrambler U but kir Kama was like a dog to uh Taylor Moore last last week if I saw like he was a dog to many many people that scared me Billy horel I I’m
Gonna be out I’ve heard too many people mention his name I see 4% ownership I’m just I’m good on that I know the you know where’s he from like Gainesville area or Pont honestly maybe but big fla guy I’m okay with not playing Billy horel Matthew Pavone I think I’m out so
The guys I like I do like B I like B also I think which is do you find it sorry I keep cutting you off this is what a live show does though and I think I cut you off when we record too so it’s
Like yeah I mean it’s all part of the course right now yeah [ __ ] it um actually both the books are moving in his favor I was like he’s been like a sizable favorite to all the mid mid uper range all season long at every tournament and then when I opened up
Matchups like Monday night Tuesday morning he was like a sizable dog to most people he was a big dog to EVR at Pinnacle I believe which now has flipped in his favor pretty much to a coin flip but we’ve pretty much gotten we’ve pretty much gotten the same answer over
And over again from Hustler this year courses where he doesn’t really have the history that you would want to see this is maybe not the the coraly type of a course from past years that you can even pull from to be begin with but different player and he that’s where I’m going
With it is every single time he’s gotten these courses where he hasn’t produced results in the past across the board he’s providing top 40 finishes over and over again so I think that his skill set was starting to Trend towards the end of 2023 it’s continued now into
2024 I’m really intrigued with players like him and joerger to see if they can really then take that next step even from where they’re at right now because those are two of the more talented guys every single time run a model so I think Hustler’s intriguing I guess for me the
Two names if we’re trying to just get super minimal ownership and and mention some of these players I kind of like Maverick mcney and I never play Maverick mcney zero percent right now yeah I mean he like he is just off everybody’s radar but uh inside the top 50 of my model I
Thought that was interesting and then the other player that I at least want to mention uh Ben Griffin Ben Griffin okay okay I did not like Ben Griffin I liked Ben Martin which uh also is who is Ben Martin Mel Gibson’s character in The Patriot so that should
Mean something I love that movie uh Maverick mcne great Scrambler 0% owned okay I’ll put MAV back in the player pool I see Lucas Glover going up to 78% what are your thoughts on him uh seven or eight% I will be out know David uh I gave Ryan Fox a long
Look I know David’s on let’s see we got David’s picks right here horel Todd Nick [ __ ] Todd godd damn it all right I’ll put him in for everybody I’m out on Billy um e wrot love putam the market loves I’m fine with plam I think plam is
A rich man’s version of Brendan Todd yeah Ryan Fox I looked at and I decided no do you have any thoughts on Ryan Fox I think for the price tag and the upside ability that he does possess upside I think there is absolutely no floor with him but I love his short iron
Proximity he’s going to have to be better in certain areas of the market I mean he has not scored on par fives well this year and I think that’s been his biggest undoing but this was probably a golfer if we would have gotten better performances from him um 500 exactly I
Mean this is a mid $7,000 golfer with a little bit better form Ben Griffin all right Ryan Fox inside the player pool right now I currently have 60 players I need to cut the I need to get it like 45 um but for the sake of everybody’s
Time we’ll keep on moving all right so the guy I do like back to the question 10 minutes later I love Rio yeah 6200 not going to miss a fairway has peaked in Iron play a couple weeks this season recently like within the last six weeks great
Scrambler for a very small sample size again to anybody listening I’m not telling you this guy’s a a world beater but I like Rio more than I like Ryan Fox well I’ll I’ll I’ll say this Nick um and maybe they’re similar DAV answers with the with the
Ownership that we have here but if you look at Rio versus Ry like if Ry is actually 15% Plus in ownership I don’t think there’s a massive difference between Rio and Ry like I think Rio’s a nice pivot away from that yep what about a what has happened to OE
Recently I don’t know but he’s always everybody’s favorite so like I wouldn’t mind hopping in when everybody hopped out but his game kind of seems broken it’s really good at Farmers but after that then fell he left California maybe that’s the problem love the green and regulation
Percentages and some of the the ball striking ability that he possesses like he’s inside of the top 20 of my model when I combine driving and approach play let me see his putting expectation for me on bent grass or be mut I’m sorry Bentgrass is
What I play in Illinois love B grass by the way if the PJ wants to get more courses with that’d be cool um not great in the terrible Scrambler I think I’m going to be out on him it is a weird surface here though with the over seating that they have I
Mean I don’t know if that makes it better or worse for him like I would say this is probably more I mean it’s like a like the poet trivialis type of builds to it where you get all this extra overseeding thoughts on Andrew Novak in fantastic form I thought he’d be 10%
Owned I’m seeing two I see four um that’s lower owned than I thought he was going to be Bobby mat you’re a Bobby ma guy good DK scorer no way he misses third Miss Mr awaken up yeah if you guys got questions fire away but Spencer is
The Bobby ma guy he plays them all the time and I try to talk him off of it so I did have Bobby in my player pool in the morning I took him out he’s out for me right now too um I think one of the things that he he is in
My player pool should I get him out I’d rather have higo and I would also I think one of my biggest concerns with McIntyre is I love his long iron proximity and I think he loses a great deal of of that here okay good answer I’m out with Bobby
Mack um who else do you have any love for Davis Thompson the market hates him my model always has love for Davis Thompson he a good golfer I would agree with you I mean I I always think his ball striking is as Elite as it can get
And then you just never really see the results as high-end as you would want like Phoenix for him is kind of perfect course like we talked about that on better Golf and you know he came in 15th and I think that’s a great result you would be huge reason I got second in
That gpp was yeah 1% Davis Thompson and that was like our take a stance guy I think that’s gonna be Rio for me this week yeah or Bez but yeah he’s gained Strokes approach in six straight events he can hit Fairways and Club down spots good par five scorer and his short
Wedges so like the or short I mean it’s a wedge if it’s under 120 for all these PGA guys for the most part maybe not chz reevy but everybody else like that looks great for him I I think I I think here’s the answer with Davis Thompson and and and I
Think that this is at least an easy way to explain it to yourself if you want to play him there is a reason he’s hitting Miss in spots if we want to talk about matchups like he’s probably not the greatest matchup golfer to try to bet against somebody else I I think that
When he implodes he implodes really badly but I think for the price tag and the ceiling that he possesses it’s probably a lot larger than a lot of these other guys that we’re talking about like he’s in that mix with the foxes and Rio and if you want to say I
Think I like MC NE but I think he’s a what is the word I’m looking a middle class version I’m not going to say a poor man but a middle class version of Cameron Davis yeah I think that’s fair all right let’s trademark that whole thing uh KH
Lee spiked last week has been dog [ __ ] for I don’t know half a year maybe more probably out I mean I would rather he was so good at PJ National it’s TPC lead which we invented on the show by the way but full credit to you on that that has been something
That has run rampant in the space since then but any love for KH or is that just bad probably I I think the problem is like the Ricky version broken kind of like once we get into this $5,000 section it is just gross all right here
Are the guys in my player pool and then we’ll move on to a couple question questions I see linger in here and then we’ll get out obviously I’m playing Chan Kim he’s probably going to top five we don’t need to talk about him Sheamus Mark hubard higo which someone else in
Here was we I think we’re on higgo Roberto talked about him on action being injured for most of the Fall swing and then showing some recent form I think he was up on first or second on Thursday at Puerto Rico which means nothing but I do
Like that his iron spiked at PJ National I think he’s got high upside same Ryder I do have Grayson Sig I don’t know why I play him I think he’s because of mauno guy and I like mauno golf pubs but good iron player I can’t quit this guy and I
Need to Matt Wallace is in my player pool Jimmy stagner only because of he’s starting to score and the recovery and scrambling which I believe your model seem to agree with as well and then Lee Hodes but I I mean all these guys are like 2% owned at most and will have 3%
To 4% exposure and probably cap it at like six on the optimizer so it’s they’ll be just mixing around because again I want more 9k range guys like we talked about earlier in the show which I think is kind of the theme of our card this week is play more
The 9k guys for us personally um to get different builds than just Scotty and mid- tier guys yeah I mean I think that’s the way that you can definitely get unique and different um I will say with higo and I don’t know this is some information I I have never said before
About I going win look at that he he yeah yeah he just won I can’t I I went on a date a while back with somebody who was doing physical therapy on hi’s wrist and you had inside information this whole time and withheld yeah and she said that he
Was doing great in his recovery but then this was before like this was a long time ago and then he withdrew at the Zozo because of the rist so I I don’t know I I don’t have like current information that’s probably actually usable in this situation call her real
Quick live on here or did it not end well yeah it didn’t end well well get her on a group text see what she says about heo but at 0er percent I’m okay with I I think he’s I think he’s intriguing here I I he had a lot of upside numbers in my
Model yeah you have withheld from us she was doing physical therapy on Hos RIS so yeah whatever she’s doing she did a bad job because I mean it went downhill at the Zozo yeah maybe she should I don’t be a yoga instructor or something if PT is not working out for a
Professional golf that’s like a client like you hang your hat on if he gets right and starts winning right like that’s a that’s like finding uh I don’t know whoever found uh Anthony Lynn right his agent probably had a great little run after Anthony Lynn was
That his name Anthony Lynn the ly sanity guy oh Jeremy Lynn Jeremy lent see that’s how much I know about the [ __ ] NBA goddamn I’m sorry guys we need to uh I need to check the show notes prior to going on here I’m just butchering it
Sorry Anthony I’m he’s a I heard he’s a DFS player now so he’s probably is tuned in um but other than that any final thoughts we had a question uh matama my answer was probably just too expensive and I something about it like obviously Spencer and I like to be as numbers
Backed as possible but I certainly played DFS with my heart a little bit and I I just I hate the injuries here it’s happened a couple times I know Spencer we kind of bailed last minute at the memorial two years ago and he didn’t get hurt then but then you know he got
The marker on his driver or whatever he was like 20% owned and both hard models loved him and we got out but like I don’t know something about him just always scares me that something’s going to happen and I shouldn’t feel that way but I do so do you have any other
Thoughts on matama other than probably too expensive for the range think he’s probably I think he’s a great player and I think there’s so much to like about his game I I just think he’s probably even at the price T like I think he’s too too much ownership around
Him respect all right give me your I got to do this just like our NFL show favorite gpp play 9k and above I’ll let you have it Max right it’s Max Hom OR Burns um I’ll go with I’ll go with Max H dude I think I’m drinking the will Z
Kool-Aid if he’s gaining Strokes around the green the ball striking is too good I’m going to go with will zotus just cuz I think he has so much win equity and he’s only n in the 9k range I know it’s up for 9k I will go with Wills
Tus I want to say love but again I like I will that to existence but like my data on love is just so new that I don’t trust it and that’s how the field is too like he’s like 12 to 15% ownership range they’re like ah he’s really good but
Like is he really good I know he’s really good but like should he be this expensive should he be right by Jordan Speed more KY maxom I I think there’s an argument to be made maybe not here specifically at TPC Saw Grass just cuz it’s his first
Time playing it but I think there seventh at the junior players we just got that I I think I think there’s an argument to be made that he should be even more expensive than this like like closer into that zalatoris range then that’s going to be my guy
That feels better than will zorus I’m gonna go with L viig I’m going to hammer him in mme and hope it works out this dude’s big Big Win is is coming I don’t know when I hope Sunday um actually I hope last week would have been cooler see was on my
Card um all right favorite gpp play we’ll go let’s go 8,000 to 9k just in that range because I know the 7K range is multiple different options so I don’t want to group them together you go first I I guess I’m going to go with I
Mean this is a very chalky choice and this is against where you are going to be Nick but I I think Russell Henley is good chalk this week Russell Hunley was going to be my answer actually so I will go to Tony feno yeah I like I want to believe in
Something like minu I really want to believe in him I’m G to play him but I don’t think I could like plant my flag on his name like I want to play Fitz same thing I think he’s kind of in a disastrous form uh 8K and Below or I guess 7K to
7900 one guy gpp like this obviously isn’t a combined lineup because we’re getting super different on all these guys besides R Us but 7K staple guy in tournaments if you had to I’m gonna go with Adam hadwin o I’m gonna give two answers because there’s no rules it’s our show I would
Like to also give Brian Harmon if all right you just gave Brian Haron I’m gonna go with Christian Baden out and I do just want to check the market real quick big favorite to Ricky yeah even to Keith Mitchell to me that’s like all right I know everybody’s numbers like
Keith Mitchell Mitchell’s in good form good Bermuda player too I like Bez I really like norin too but I’m gonna go with Bez 2% Bez yeah give me that Bez against Fowler I think that’s an interesting head to head for everybody to consider which is I bet 365 right yes
Nice minus 120 still sign off on that yeah I think I think he’s here’s the here’s the slight problem with the play if there’s anything to look into that’s wrong like it didn’t quite reach that 3% threshold that I normally need to recommend a play I just think that there
Are certain metrics in Ricky’s game whether that be when I ran it specifically for TPC sass or when I just looked in the profile in general there that he might actually be a little bit worse than my model even believes and I think on the Counterpoint of that
Argument Baden Hal might not be getting the full effect of what we have seen with some of this recent iron play over the past couple of months I love it I’m with you all right 6K and above one gpp guy and I I want to say ekro but his
Ownership’s going to be pretty high like I I just believe in him he doesn’t miss a fairway they just a smooth Striker but I’ll go first on this one I’m gonna go with Rio I think there’s a lot of good Chalk in this range which is a weird answer to
Give um besides Aaron Ry yeah 19% I will be out on that but like I think Brendan Todd Nick Taylor um I think Maverick McNeely as a pivot is very intriguing I I am going to say I’ll give two I I guess I just won’t
Play by the rules at all in any of these SE I’ll say Maverick McNeely and Ben Griffin Ben Griffin what am I missing with him any of any of the proximity numbers are always going to hate him I I understand that factor but he was a big climber for
Me from that range I was looking for from 0o to 150 uh very steady across the board in any of those bogey avoidance totals like inside of the top 25 almost across the board in any of those key metrics sixth overall on this field in scrambling uh inside the top 35 for
Weighted scoring just think he was kind of good in all the ranges I was looking so as like a $6,000 golfer he’s 34th in or 33rd sorry in projected par three scoring he is 38th in projected par 4 scoring and he is about 50th in projected par five scoring so just three
Areas of the build there where I was able to get a top 50 golfer and projected scoring for a $6,000 price tag 1% owned yeah no ownership which makes it even more enticing and only $100 more than the w watched web Simpson who did
Find a way to get T30 all right below 6K one guy or two if you need to but the whole world’s saying two so [ __ ] it let’s go with one um I mean I do want to say that there’s only one player in this section that has won this tournament in the last
Five years and that would be web yeah that would be web web I don’t like any of these guys honestly besides Chan but that’s a fanboy play I do think that this is a decent course for him if he’s actually starting to make putts but I’d rather
Him be able to hit it a little bit longer I’ll go with I’ll go with Mark hubard hubs okay that’s a safe pick yeah I think like for safety I think if you’re shooting for a little bit more maybe higo like I I can kind of sign off on that higle play I
Think he’s intriguing here outside of that and and Chan I I’m I’m also okay with Chan like my model liked him fine but out Sam rer uh big upside numbers in my model like he was the biggest upside player that I had in the entire $5,000
Range I just never seem to get him right when I play him I will go with Chan Kim I think he’s just here to stay on the PJ T and be a middle of the Packer which at 5800 middle of the Packer would be just
Fine but other than that oh go ahead go I’m not even saying that the price is wrong I think think he should be down in this section um wild what we have seen from Thomas dietry after really competing earlier in this year I just don’t see I mean his game
His ball striking is just kind of broken too I know we played him at AT&T Pebble Beach and even then like I feel like we got lucky yeah I I don’t I don’t think the price is wrong I mean that’s what’s so crazy about it because this is a guy
That my model usually likes but even my model couldn’t NE necessarily find a ton of reason to play him so David like Zack Blair any thoughts on Zack Blair I don’t think I would ever just his name sounds like someone I wouldn’t play uh I don’t have massive thoughts
One way or another with it I think he’s a great around the green player yeah all right cool well other than that dude I think we had a great turnout which I also really appreciate so thank you guys all for tuning I will still upload this
To uh the podcast channel for those that had to tune in to now but seems like every minute we are growing an audience so I was like all right let’s just keep blabbering about um Mel Gibson’s the Patriot which is a great movie by the
Way if you guys have not seen it I would see it David I don’t know if you’ve seen it it is American history go check out Mel Gibson’s the Patriot and Ben Martin lead character um this is a good question which oh [ __ ] what did I do I
Did full screen here we go uh which narrative would be more epic Adam Scott 20th anniversary that’s wild to even think about or Lowry I think Lowry dude if Lowry wins on St Patty’s Day because it’s very rare that St Patty dayss on um I’m out of the Chicago area and my
Wife’s Southside Irish girl so we are going to the Southside Irish parade which I haven’t been to since I was like 24 because that’s what type of day it is it’s just like you know a long day with the Irish folks love them um but if he wins like
Southside Chicago is going to go nuts I’m sure like B you know all these Irish neighborhoods or whatever throughout the country that are celebrating very very Loosely and freely on Sunday uh I think that’d be that’d be more uh more epic of a narrative there I’ll go with Adam Scott just to keep
With the UNLV theme if I if I get the answer and the potential to pick a UNLV golfer I I will go with that but um I mean I guess we’ll take everybody out of here before we get out of here Nick give me the winner of this golf tournament L
Big I like it I will I will say Max H respect all right thank you guys so much um retweet whatever on Twitter follow us at better golf pod um all of our normal handles I believe are right here but yeah thank you guys so much and
Good luck this week and pray for me in the Scotty fade yeah good luck everybody
