In this week’s RotoWire Golf Rundown, Keith Stewart of Read The Line and RotoWire’s Len Hochberg break down the top tournament of the season so far, THE PLAYERS Championship. First up, can Scottie Scheffler become the first champion to successfully defend his title in the 50-year history of the tournament? Plus, what type of golfer should we target at TPC Sawgrass? Finally, Keith and Len will give their favorite DFS and betting plays.
You know it’s time for the rundown I’m Keith Stewart from read the line that’s Len hawber from RotoWire and I am joining you from the 50th Players Championship down at Pon ofra Beach Len the weather is beautiful for a Tuesday practice round the the tea is full with
All sorts of expectations and maybe a little bit of anxiety welcome to the players my friend and to you as well Keith and I love your wallpaper it where did you get it I got it at the PGA TOUR Superstore you know that was it was on it’ll be on sale next
Week very nice very nice and and I apologize for dressing down for this uh fifth major and you were appropriately attired well this is the flagship event so since I’m down here in the media center I decided to uh to maybe throw on a tie and and you know try to maybe uh
Class up this rundown a little bit that you and I take on every Tuesday Morning um your morning’s a little earlier than mine but um you know they continue to call this the strongest field in golf and I’m curious because if you watched Liv this past weekend you had a playoff
With you know with answer cam Abe answerer your eventual winner but cam Smith and um gez Paul Casey name slipped my mind um and then you got guys like DJ and Rah and Brooks aren’t here you know those are that six names right there you would
Have thought you would would be on the leaderboard here down at you know Pon ofer Beach here at the stadium course at TPC Saw Grass right um my question to you is you know do you think anyone’s missing those guys you know they we do they do they’re
Missed but I think once the competition starts I mean they’re missed Monday to Wednesday they’re missed Monday to Wednesday and I don’t think anyone was missing them last week I mean it really wasn’t close but Sheffer Clark Lowry there was a good leaderboard finally for the PGA Tour Scotty sort of muffed it
All up by just running away and taking the drama away but I think Monday to Wednesday it’s a talking point it’s something for me and you and everybody else all the Talking Heads to discuss but once that first balls in the air on Thursday you know it it I I think it
Just who’s here let’s do it well I could tell you who’s here here and that’s your betting favorite that’s Scotty sheffler coming in at 5 to one and one thing’s for sure everyone’s talking about can he defend now Len it’s never happened in the 49 year this is the 50th Anniversary
But it’s never happened in the history of the tournament you think Scotty can do it you know it is remarkable that it’s never happened but it’s remarkably hard to win this tournament twice much less two in a row only five guys have ever won this tournament twice and the
Closest of the two wins was six years apart Steve elkington 1991 and 1997 even tiger won it twice but it was what 12 or 13 years apart this is crazy stuff how Sutton 17 years apart so um you know it’s really hard to finish in the top 10
Two years in a row we’ve only seen four guys finish in the top 25 the past two years so um you know on the other side of the coin is recency bias which has been around forever and you know it look look all statistics aside and everything Scotty Sheffer was
Very impressive last week and if he finds his putter with any perpetuity I mean you know everybody else can just go home running a poll on Twitter ran about two to one in favor of the field but I think it’s amazing that 33% of the people are picking one guy as opposed to
143 look I have him in my picks he’s $122,800 almost 13,000 but I could easily see going in a different direction this week I guess if you had to say yes or no and I had to answer I say no he won’t win you know I have to agree with you
There I think about tiger when he won in 2001 he was at the height of his power or maybe one of the heights I mean he he had some flows there although he won all the time and he couldn’t do it back to back of course in 2013 he had five wins
That summer the next summer he had he was injury plagued um it’s it’s the deepest field in golf even if Rah and DJ and Brooks aren’t here so w with the eject button so close to the steering wheel here you know guys just flying out of this tournament left and right you
Know you look at all the people’s records of the the top betting favorites Rory goes and wins and the next year he misses the cut then he comes back and he does well then he misses the cut it’s just it’s it’s a really really interesting venue and it’s probably the
Most entertaining and thankfully it’s the home of the PLAYERS Championship where we get to come every single year I mean you’ve got 10 holes that have a birdie rate over 15% but you’ve got 12 holes that have a bogey rate over 15% so the ups and downs here I just think it’s
It’s it’s way too hard to try to predict because one swing can really do you in in this tournament now speaking of which when you’re preparing for this Pete die diabolical design when you’re looking at DFS this week what are the skills that you’re laying out in order to build your
Lineups yeah one of the beauties of this Peete die course and we don’t see it too many weeks out of the year but I love these weeks pretty much as much as any uh it requires all 14 clubs in the bag you can’t really have a weakness here
And expect to win this tournament or even be in the mix you know you don’t have to maybe the one thing you don’t have to hit it that far but you do have to get it in the Fairway and you do need strong iron play because the greens are
On the smaller side smaller side and you don’t want to miss because there’s water and play on 14 holes you don’t have to be the best putter to win here it’s certainly helps but you do have to have some you know degree of of putting success here so it’s really uh you
Know everything you’re look you’re looking for everything and bogey avoidance um you know we don’t want any Cowboys out here because you can get in there are as you mentioned there are a lot of birdies out here but you can get in trouble real fast 254 double bogeys or Worse here last
Year tied for second most on tour um you know I I I’m just looking you know focusing on the better golfers golfers who who are playing well I mean that’s kind of a duh but that’s really what you got to do this week and uh you can’t
Really take too many many gambles and and uh hope that they’ll pay off I mean you’re 100% right you cannot find your form here the last six winners in a row have finished t22 or better in their previous start and a majority of these guys that we think will win were that
Were they were there last week at API so if those guys weren’t in the top 20 you know what just cross them off your DFS list they’re done because as history tells us and you know I’ll throw in a couple PSAs too as history tells us make
Sure you pay attention to the data you’re looking at whether you’re playing DFS or you’re betting it comes from the March versions of this event you know a lot of people Overlook the fact that they just go back 10 years but guess what from 2007 to 2018 this event was
Played in May it’s totally different conditions you had Bermuda grass Ruff I mean we’re all over seated right now here in March you look at the last four winners from 2019 on these guys are major championship winners you’ve got Rory JT cam Smith and then of course Scotty last year then approach
Everyone’s talking about the approach Bucket from 75 to 150 yards 40% of your approaches come from there but if you look at The Strokes gained approach numbers over the last four winners here yes the guys in March the place they gain the most on the field is from over
175 yards over 200 yards and that’s those second shots on par fives or the that’s those long par three shots I mean those are the places where you’re going to make gains and that’s where you really want to see that approach roach play takeoff and then you mentioned that
The greens are small here 5,500 Square F feet 2,000 um square feet Less on average than last week guys are going to miss greens and we remember so many chip-ins and just electric moments in this event coming from short game and putts you know this place is better than
Most Len so those are the things that I’m keying on when it comes time for me to pick a couple of names now you mentioned the man of the hour starting at the top of the list what you say 12,800 he’s priced at we got to go down
The price listing I sounds to me like you’re not going for 13k there on Scotty who above 10K are you favoring in your lineups yeah we only have we have someone almost at 12K we have two in the 11s three in the 10 you know but it this
Appears to be the new Norm with DraftKings uh pricing they will get a guy into the 12s we hadn’t seen 12 eight before but there are also dozens of guys in the 5000s so if you want to play Scotty Sheffer at 128 which would be
More than 25% of your budget you can and you can find guys in the fives now this is not like some of the other fields this is what 144 so less than half the field will make the cut it’s going to be hard you know these guys are 5,000
Whatever for a reason but I did have Scotty sheffler on my list because I think he’s he’s worthy of being in the conversation but I don’t have Rory or Xander in the 11s I don’t even have Thomas or Klay and havland in the tens I’m going all the way down to the nines
Where I like a bunch of guys zotus Hideki homma oberg and Shane Lowry now Hideki really to me is one of the closest things to a course Wars that we’ve seen here I’m kind of disappointed that he won the Genesis played pretty well last week because he’s now no
Longer under the radar he’s over the radar but he was fifth here last year and he had some lean years with the pandemic and a back injury but he has some other top 10 and some and top 25s he hasn’t won but really he really is a
Good fit for this course and he’s playing very well right now oh there’s no doubt about that and I’ll never forget the year that they canceled the event back in 2020 after the first round he was your leader he shot 63 and he didn’t get to do anything after that and
I think for players especially at his level major championship winners I think guys like that go back and they say man that was my year to win that thing and I didn’t get it so I’m a little extra motivated this week now you mentioned all these guys that are playing great in
The nines I look at the 8K range and uh I don’t know for me it’s like almost looking at the 6K range I don’t know where to go here there’s some really hot and cold people so you got to give me some guidance yeah I’m with you I really
Couldn’t find much I like there uh I I’ll give you two names Russell Henley and sewu Kim and Russell Henley scares me because he’s finished top 25 the past two years and okay he’s done well but nobody plays well here every year it just has not happened and uh but really
He is a perfect fit for this golf course just so accurate off the te really good with his irons and he’s even putting much better this year so which is why he had a you know he’s been playing well this year and he was right there well right there behind Scotty but right
There with in the be flight uh last week uh at at Bay Hill and SE Kim you know so much talent he is a former Champion here he has good weeks and bad weeks but at $88,000 even I believe um you know that’s where you can start to take a
Little bit of gam more gambles with your players that in hoping that this year they’ll do better but his skill set certainly lends itself to playing well here he’s done it multiple times now speaking of gambling we get down to that 7K range and a really hot
Name last week and he showed up Harris English right he should be another perfect fit here right calm demeanor drives it straight putts it great but his his course history is awful I mean he’s had like aund straight miscuts so it when you get into the 7K range where are you going
Here yeah there are some names a few M more than the eights Brian Haron is 7900 and you know sometimes they just look for Value he’s the top 10 player in the world and you can’t be there alone just by winning the Open Championship what close to eight or nine months ago
Now you you’ve got to do some other things so he’s playing pretty well and uh and he’s had some good weeks here he’s had some terrible weeks here but so he’s at 79 Tom hogi at 78 I think Tom is going to be a very very popular play
Because he’s in the sevens you can fit him into every lineup um Eric Cole you know now that he finished you know he he got the weak off out of his system he missed the cut following that he he played pretty well again last week but
Really all the way down at 72 Alex noren I mean certainly at 72 he can fit into every lineup even if you want to play Scotty just a really good fit for this course I don’t know how under the radar I think I’ve seen his name in a couple
Of different places so you know I don’t have this one all to myself I’m not saying that but I do like him and I do see why he he’s had some good he’s he’s playing pretty well fantastic putter on occasion and he’s had some good weeks
Here I don’t know Len I haven’t heard that that name a lot and you know whenever we go over the top of the board the higher price guys you seld them surprise me but when we get down here in the seven six and fives you always come
Up with a name and and I think that that one’s one that’s going to be a little sleepy and under the radar um we’re getting down into the sixes who gives you Good Vibes down here yeah here’s another guy who is just you know he’s a
Top 25 player in the world and he’s in the 6000s and that’s Nick Taylor and Nick Taylor has not been great here before for but also the Nick Tor we’re seeing Now is better than any Nick tayor we’ve ever seen before so you know that that’s sometimes you have I have to
Discount course history because he’s a different player now and at 6,900 that’s terrific terrific value Doug gim on the best stretch of his career uh I think four top 15s in a row um and perfectly suited for this course great ball Striker iron play terrible putter I mean
You know don’t expect him to win but I think he’s got a a top 10 here a couple of years ago and Brendan Todd who I always talk about on the shorter tracks where accuracy matters he hases a you know also not the greatest record here
But when in that situation and two guys in the 5000 Sam Ryder who I mentioned a few weeks back he was at 59 a few weeks back what tournament I can’t remember what tournament was but the one that Austin ekot won what whatever that was the Honda the cogn cogn classic I’m
Losing my cognizance here um you know he you know he’s always been a great you know straight ball hitter let’s look for him to make a cut and all the way down at 5100 this is not for those with of the faint of heart Franchesco Molinari
$5,100 um you know he is not he’s in this tournament only because he won the Open Championship six years ago 2018 this is his final exemption into the players but years ago he played this tournament very well come number of top 10 back around when he won the Open
Championship and he’s also made the cut the last two years so you know 5100 if you’re going Scotty at 128 you’re going to have to dip into the fives 5100 Franchesco Molinari fingers crossed when I say that when Franchesco Volari was playing his best golf it was long iron play which
Goes back to what I was saying about skill set that really separated him so he’s got a chance now speaking of a chance at the top of the board I really like will zures from a betting perspective plus 3,000 I think he’s the only guy that can keep up with Scotty
From a ball striking perspective he’s gonna put the ball in play and as we know over the years you don’t have to be the world’s greatest putter to combat these greens you just have to be a really good lag putter because there’s sections to him but really overall the
Bigger challenge here is keeping the ball in play and my second guy is Max hom at plus 2800 Max was really really good around the G he he seemed like he was working on a couple things and he has been since the desert but he every week he keeps
Getting better and better and when it comes to Big Game situations in you know places like Quail Hollow or Riviera or now here on the PGA tour I’m not talking about Majors Max seems to show up and he’s got a very nice record here in fact
You pointed it out in a tweet where you said there’s only four guys not Rory not Scotty that have been in the top 25 over the last two years Victor havin he had two top 10 then you’ve got Russell Henley Adam hadwin and Max hom I love
Max hom and you know what else if they all begin with h you know I love Len hawber Len great tweet yeah it’s the it’s the I didn’t even somebody pointed that out to me I didn’t even realize it was the the 4H club uh I didn’t even realize it was me
I completely missed that but yeah um you know and it it almost makes me I like H as well I like Henley as well it’s h it’s it’s dangerous because we just see guys don’t play well here consistently and um you know that’s a tough that’s a
Tough way to bet and play DFS that you know I think something do to go wrong but uh it’s something always goes wrong here for somebody at the Players Championship it does and it can you know we’ll go back to that Hideki 63 to open and then a pandemic canceled the
Tournament you know um when in doubt hit the eject button and we’ll see it all weekend Len it’s great to spend the time with you always on a Tuesday for the rundown any last bit of advice for folks heading in for DFS strategy for the 50th Players
Championship um no I don’t have any I think we’ve covered it all but I I don’t want to let this go by without saying a a big shout out to you and a big congrats to the hardest working man in golf Keith Stewart new gig with Golf
Digest Ro wire he’s everywhere he’s more omnipresent than Sun JM and Eric Cole combined but in all seriousness that that’s fantastic your people are going to have another Avenue another path to see your your great stuff congratulations on that you must be thrilled hey uh coming from a three-time
Fantasy sports writer of the Year Award winner uh Len that means a ton thank you so much and folks thanks for watching the RotoWire rundown we’ll be back next week to talk more golf on a Tuesday morning
1 Comment
Great stuff guys. GL this week. 💪🔥⛳️💵😂