Post-Combine Best Ball Rankings Updates w/ Kyle Dvorchak and Daniel Racz

Pat is joined by Kyle Dvorchak and Daniel Racz to discuss the post-combine changes to the LegUp best ball rankings. They talk through how to play the rising ADPs of the Texas WRs, Ladd McConkey, and Xavier Legette, as well as Troy Franklin’s disappointing day. They also discuss which rookie RBs are starting to look like the highest upside bets.

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00:00 – Intro, welcome to the Dalton Schultz podcast!
02:02 – The advantages of ranking rookies higher than ADP pre-combine
05:10 – Where does Troy Franklin settle in after a mediocre performance at the combine?
06:08 – RB fallers from combine performance, Blake Corum, Bucky Irving, Audric Estime
10:38 – Changes in Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell ranking.
21:31 – Is Keon Coleman’s RAS score going to inflate his ADP and NFL Draft position?
27:35 – Grab this WR now before his rise in drafts.
30:33 – Legendary Upside is over a round higher on this rookie WR than ADP
34:34 – And two rounds higher than ADP on this rookie RB.
37:30 – Pat seems sold on Xavier Legette but Kyle and Daniel aren’t buying yet.
43:41 – Does the athleticism or draft capital matter more to the WR position?
46:13 – Where will Ricky Pearsall and Tez Walker go in the NFL Draft now?
53:05 – Javon Baker and Jermaine Burton are two dart throws Legendary Upside is targeting.
57:33 – What do you win when you win? Who’s more valuable to your team in the late rounds?
1:01:30 – Target rookie WRs now before they rise in the summer.
1:03:05 – Breaking down Dalton Schultz contract extension from a best ball standpoint.

#nfldraft #underdog #bestball

Welcome to Legendary upside podcast my name is Pat R you can find all of my content at legendary upside.com today I am joined by Daniel Raz and Kyle dorek we are talking post combine best ball rankings changes we just uh emerged from the lab after tweaking a bunch of the

Ranks doton Schultz kind enough to also sign his contract right at the end of that call so we bumped him up um but yeah guys how you doing doing well Pat buried the lead a little bit this is going to be a Dalton Schultz podcast with adjusting him by a few rounds and

Then also reacting to the NFL combine yeah you don’t even have time to react to the combine it’s already already one main topic of the show right but we’ve got a little bit of banter at the beginning we’ll tack some news on to the end the main topic of this show is dton

Schz three years I don’t know how much but three three years and enough that he he’s gonna be out there with CJ strout so we we did bump him up we will get to that but yeah let’s talk the combine um any kind of like highle takeaways from you guys um you know

Players just kind of General sentiment on on kind of how the weekend went overall just kind of thoughts before we we dive in yeah I think when we look at how the market reacted rarely were players dinged for either not going to the combine or performing poorly but the

Ones that did well rightfully were moved up so we sort of had to reckon with are we just boosting players that did well but then adjusting how should we dock players that perform poorly and then looking at the quarterback Carousel coupling that with free agency with JJ

McCarthy coming in 15 pounds over the negative downside cases we kind of feeling good about him as a locked in top 12 top 13 pick yeah that’s an interesting point like I definitely feel good about the rankings being high on the rookies before the combine because it does feel

Like rookies moved up post combine not a lot of rookies have fallen I think we will see some rookies fall um but maybe I don’t know like the next shoe to drop here is draft capital and this tournament will be closed so there’s kind of like you know how much

Does a Troy Franklin fall now that he’s likely to be a second round pick instead of a late first round pick after weighing what 175 and running a 441 you know it’s we were hoping he was 183 and he ran a 4 3-1 um and I think at that point maybe

He’s a late first rounder but does he fall that much before the end of the combine maybe a or before before the draft the end of the tournament maybe he does but I don’t think he’s going to Crater um and so generally I think my post combine feeling is like

Getting right on some of the guys we were too low on one of which is Jaylen Wright who in the last video someone commented that we were way too low on him because he was going to blow up the combine and then he did so you were

Right um we have raced him but there’s there’s I think generally we’ve raised rookies we did lower some rookies Franklin being one of them but not like dramatically um but he’s he is behind ADP now but yeah I think that that’s a interesting interesting way in terms of

You know being maybe a note for next year not that we really needed additional reasons to be bullish on the rookies but you’re probably just hunting for those guys who shoot up in ADP and it’s it’s not going to be super super risky because at least so far none of

Them have really Fallen that much any notes any kind of high level stuff for you no I thought it was a really good showing from the wide receiver class which is why Troy Franklin is like the one big Faller was his combine terrible no probably wasn’t terrible I don’t think You’ call it

Terrible he came in below speed expectation below weight but like he didn’t bomb the combine it’s that Xavier you’re worthy set the uh the 40 yard dash record it’s that ad Mitchell posted one of the like 10 best overall rft scores in the RAS database like Brian

Thomas absolutely nuked his 40 and all of these guys who like I could see an NFL team convincing them Troy Franklin’s their third receiver their fourth receiver all of them gave them reasons to not do that where he was maybe a first round pick before so many guys

Leapt him and his comment was disappointing that uh overall really excited like your Dynasty drafts and whatnot he is the one though like you know in reference to how good everyone was that’s why we think he should fall and Daniel you pulled up ADP it’s only

What three two days three days of ADP and it was like Troy Franklin up 2.2 picks like how is that possible to your point Pat like the market doesn’t seem to care when things don’t go well at the combine they just love boosting the guys who did

Great yeah well to Daniel’s point but I think Franklin’s kind of interesting because I still feel good about getting in the 120s you know the 115 range like that still feels fine we have he comes in at 101 now for us so now we’re going

To be a little bit behind ADP on him um but you if you’ve been drafted off the ranks you have plenty and at at a cheaper price than he is now so bailed out a little bit by the rising cost you know if we’re trying to um feel a little

Bit better about the closing line value I think he should probably settle in maybe more around like 105 if I was you know in charge of ADP that’s that’s where I think he should kind of that’s sort of like fair value I think um so he has you know he’s about

Around he got a bit round to high on reasonable bullishness about how he would do with the combine that didn’t come through and so he should fall probably by about a round but um yeah I think the the running backs are another interesting kind of macro topic

Where a couple running backs I think really helped themselves uh Trey Benson and Jaylen Wright would be the two that kind of jumped to to the top mind couple running backs that really hurt themselves I think audre ese um who we’ve nuked in the rankings It’s just

Tough is like it reminds me of Dwayne McBride kind of like an interesting college profile but this is the type of combine you anytime you’re slower than 47 udfa is on the table um and so I I just think with an opportunity based position like running back at this point

I don’t really want to be drafting a lot more estim um and I and I liked his I like the highlights he was fun but um I like Dwayne McBride’s highlights too though the other um the other follower for me is Blake corm who I I had come

Around to I have like literally two days of bullishness in this entire process on him I came around to the idea that he was going to get drafted pretty high like you know maybe sneak into the back into the second round has a chance to operate as like a true kind of starter

Maybe like the cam Acres rookie mold where you know at the end of the season he’s kind of Taking Over The Back Field they’re leaning on him he’s good enough but what he came in at 205 that’s that’s erning to me for that kind of bull outcome

Like I would have I wanted him to be 215 if if I’m kind of betting on this guy is penil in as the you know GNA be the starting running back for this team down the stretch you know maybe by midseason goes in like the fifth sixth

Round by the end of August like that kind of like we hit the nut uh outcome you know type of situation I I just feel like Trey Benson now has a you know a 216 and and more athletic that’s kind of the the way I

Want to place my bets um if if I’m looking for that kind of guy uh so yeah I’m kind of back out on Blake km I will say he crushed the uh the agility drills which are really good for for running backs to who have crushed those have

Generally been successful I still think I’ll probably get draft Capital but like had we just never tried to get uh like a few weeks ago we were like what is what are people doing with Blake km and we talked about it like I guess we should

Probably raise him up a little bit we probably could have just stood to keep him where we had a few weeks ago yeah I mean I what I’ll say is like I could see us getting to Zack shanet kind of level last year I mean like I could see him

Being that kind of bet where you’re like you’re you’re taking this guy in the ninth round because you feel like you know maybe he forces a committee by the end of the season um but I don’t know at 205 he’s not like that great of a pass catcher so it’s

Just like it’s a little the path I’m not sure like what the PL path to him being like an awesome fantasy guy is outside of like maybe a contingency play so he feels maybe like I think he’s probably G to be more of like a tank bsby type of

Draft pick yeah um but we also like I would like to see the draft Capital come through as well so we have him uh in the in the pure ranks right behind Elijah Mitchell um which is behind ADP but we’re ahead of ADP on Elijah Mitchell but it’s like well I know

Elijah Mitchell’s the number two like I know I have serious contingent value with Elijah Mitchell um I think we’re just we’re hoping for it with corm and then there’s some there is some uh you know scenarios where he is in a much better situation where he’s like part of

A committee or whatever but anyway um rcky Irving I think is the other guy that probably probably lost some steam uh after the combine 3.72 Ras it’s a big no thanks um it can be can be overcome right um kyen Williams famously had a terrible rasp I think

This is even worse than his though I believe it is yeah yeah so that’s just I mean we’re talking draft Capital now you know he’s not he’s not be a day two pick with with this R um so he we’ve lowered him but uh let’s let’s go ahead and and kind

Of dive into some of the changes that we made we can start with wide receivers um let’s start with the Texas guys both of them came up in the rankings uh Xavier worthy had a roller coaster ride where he he um you know starts out being way smaller than we

Were hoping but then runs the fastest 40 ever so he’s got to come up yeah I was watching the weigh-in we got 165 we said it’s so over I went to sleep being here in the UK woke up saw that he shattered the combine record and then it’s so back

You know it’s tough to be low on the fastest player ever especially pre-draft when you’re looking at mock drafts and he’s I think a coin flip I think other people think more likely than not to be a first round pick and being a late first round pick with the possible

Landing spots probably means he’s closer to a top 100 pick and even if he’s an early second round pick and I think early maybe mid-second is the true floor for a 421 speed for a player that had a fine college profile even at 165 pounds so he’s someone that were raised and

Probably going to keep an overweight position on yeah I’m I’m a well a little more bullish that he goes in the first round cuz he was starting to get some first round hype before the combine and then goes out and crushes the 40 I think I think i’ probably put him a little

Closer to like 6040 to go in the first round splitting hairs but like if you if you want to talk about splitting hairs guess what we did an hour before the show non-stop is is split hairs on these guys that’s why we think the rankings

Are good so I think he’s a little more likely to go in the first round and the landing spots at the back of the first round are are really strong and the fact that ad Mitchell showed really well at the combine is also good for worthy

Because if you are saying like oh worthy can hang with an NFL receiver at the college level and then we find out ad is a supreme NFL athlete the fact that his teammate Prospect is even better than we thought also reflects well on him and the same goes for

0 that’s a good point yeah and um worthy was very productive at Texas three point uh 39% Dominator rating as a true freshman 33% as a true sophomore actually fell off this year this was his worst year 23% but if you’ve got a a career Dominator rating above 30% he was

At 31% as a as a true three-year player 18.6 breakout age with 421 speed I mean obviously the the size is a little bit of a problem um it’s concerning but I mean we just saw tank Dell go off so it’s not you know it’s not going to prevent him from having a

Really strong season so it is a red flag but in addition to the athleticism we have production which we always want and AD Mitchell I think is is an interesting guy to talk through because the size plus the athleticism for him but we don’t have the production

But I think we feel even better about him going in the first round now so we have him even more above ADP and I guess archetype Wise It’s just easier for me to see how ad Mitchell blows up this year than worthy with with how undersized he was I think he you

Know certainly if he ends lands with a really good quarterback um then we feel pretty good about Worthy’s ability to to have a great rookie season but of the two Mitchell now seems more likely to get better quarterback play because he’s more likely to land in the late first

Where all the the good quarterbacks are drafting so um it’s a little tricky like we we flipped we talked about the the last pot we flip-flopped a bunch of times on Mitchell vers worthy after the combine it does get harder not to have Mitchell ahead yeah I will say this is sort of

Tangential to Worthy is he was like a 178 op player as a true freshman his best Dominator season and that fell until it was somewhere I think 10 or 12 as a third-year player and it turns out if you use the four guy with 4-2 speed

On short stuff he’s not going to be quite as productive as you let that guy who no one to have ever played football can run speed with you try and turn him into a 10 a. guy and it didn’t go as well so uh maybe there’s a lesson to be learn there

Texas yeah it’s weird how that works but no I’m generally on board I think ad80 Mitchell is more likely to go in the first I think they’re both better than 50 50 bets go in the first he’s also more likely to go five to even like 10 picks higher depending on how late

Worthy goes how early Mitchell goes and like you said as much as like the athleticism for Worthy is specifically the and the production are great the fact that there are like essentially no good players like to have ever looked like him is a concern there are reasons

That no one has ever looked like him because it’s hard to be as fast as he is and have any reasonable size but like tank Dell was the first player to do it since like the 80s so and not that like the NFL is gonna the NFL is gonna

Assuage some of those concerns because they’re going to say that’s okay we are putting that aside and when the NFL puts it aside we can kind of vibe the same way is like the NFL doesn’t care your 165 they’re seeing your ability to overcome that size we shouldn’t be too

Hung up on it like it’s at least worth noting that like it’s almost literally never happened before yeah and to go off what Kyle’s saying it’s not just that no one has succeed at worthy size no one has been his size tank is 58 165 Worthy

Is 511 165 this is a true one of one the closest physical comp is Maris brown but I think he’s 59 give or take so we’re dealing with a true outlier and it’s tough project whereas if we’re looking at guys aldri es May being a great example he’s in a bucket of running

Backs that run a 47 or wors 40 That’s generally such a bad group you rarely see hits from there just I don’t I couldn’t find a hit from there in the past like 10 years the closest that we got were like Rex Burkhead and like Daryl Williams and they like all had the

Same archetyp archetype of like can hang in the NFL and like does a lot of things okay it’s probably not actually what estimate profiles as as like that kind of guy those guys are pass catchers so I literally could I could not find a guy at 47 plus who was successful in the

Past like 10 years there’s some high four sixes so like you are like picking a cut off and he happens to fall on the wrong side of it like I think Josh Jacobs ran like a 46 at his pro day no less been very successful but man 47 is

Bad almost no one yeah I would say a couple things one it’s such a in the sand that it’s like if you can’t it’s kind of like showing up at the combine at 199 like you knew you had to get to 200 and you couldn’t what does that say What was

The starting point and it’s like when where was audri before he started training like he couldn’t get quite there like I don’t know it’s just a it’s concerning and then the other thing is how does it fit with the style of player you are and he’s a one cut get up to

Speed right away Runner uh if the speed is 47 that’s just not I I just I’m I’m like damn it like he’s he’s just not quite an NFL caliber running back is how is how I now feel like if he was four five I I would be okay yep it would I

Wouldn’t feel great I would love for him to be you know I think you want him to be four five if this dude was four five9 get him to four get him under 4 and it’s really strong get him to four sixes and it’s doable and I think even yeah like I

Still think the stuff he did in college matters a lot but at 47 the NFL is probably going to say otherwise they’re probably going to say you’re a seventh round pick that’s how I’m feeling too and then it’s like well now we’re it that’s that’s the thing it’s that his

His 40 now puts him most likely in another bucket where it’s less likely for a guy to succeed if the NFL just didn’t care and he was a second round pick I I don’t care either you know I maybe I would be lower on him than a

Typical seventh or second round pick but I wouldn’t be out but I think we’re we’re now trying to get ahead of uh draft Capital that’s going to be pretty pretty weak compared to what it could have been um ad Mitchell though I first of all I guess a little mini apology he

Did have a 32% Dominator rating is a true Junior yeah third year breakout power five breakout and early CLA like he’s there was some production yeah he’s not a bad Prospect he just doesn’t look I don’t think he looks like your typical first round pick like trans for a

Third-year breakout but he is an early to CLA power five school like I’m not shocked that he would go in the first round given that he’s a supreme athlete so like he’s I don’t think he’s I was like low on him as a prospect heading

Into the combine but I got it it was a like power five 30% Dominator is really strong and now he proves that he’s an NFL plus plus caliber athlete I get it I’m on board yeah 1.68 career yards per outrun peaked this past year at 1.72 that’s really bad so I I do

Think you know it’s like why take ad0 Mitchell right now at you know 112th ahead of ADP it’s partly because like I don’t really want to be taking him in the eighth round so this is palatable you know this this dude could be a total

Bust he could also be a first round wide receiver you’re getting outside the top 100 picks who’s super athletic goes gets paired with a Josh Allen you know even I I don’t think gab Davis is good you know and I would take him I would smash him at 112 if he was back

With the bills um so I just think yeah this is kind of the way if we’re not if we’re not excited about a guy uh going in the eighth round it’s almost a reason to prioritize him more uh you know if we think his ADP is going to

Rise let’s get him outside the top 100 while we can’t um that’s that’s kind of where I’m at on ad Mitchell uh okay let’s let’s talk this other group of wide receivers Kon Coleman uh feel a little worse about him after running a 461 given that he’s supposed to be super

Athletic like you know he didn’t get any separation really in college and now he is athletic but he’s not the this this is inexplicably the worst Ras over nine I’ve ever seen which is it literally is right I think it’s like just over nine I don’t know pulled up be because we

Needed him his whole cell is that he whole cell whole cell is that maybe it’s the speed actually isn’t the end of the world because part of it is like he can be a contested catch guy but I do think in general the whole C is as a package

He may be the best athlete in his class at least that was the cell and at this point he’s he’s a good athlete he’s a good athlete but if you have like no finesse to your game and you’re not hyperproductive either and you’re just a good athlete I mean I still think he’s

Probably getting drafted in the first round but it’s certainly not a move I would make as I don’t I I don’t think he goes in the first round I saw in the day or two after the combine I think it was bruger’s Mock and one of the ESPN’s mock

As well still had him in the first so but maybe he doesn’t go like like we’re trash talking him as much as we are like I wouldn’t take him in the first yeah I would put his draft Capital prop at 36 37 and a half so again I think median

Outcome is an early second round pick with an outside but possible chance at the first I think there is the likely you know Quinton Johnson es just complete zero his rookie here completely falls apart because if we can find these glaring holes in a profile and if they

Come to fres yet he’s not g to be productive no matter his landing spot but we can also squint and see the nine plus Raz you know decent not great but decent Prospect who could get a good landing spot so we don’t want to be getting zero and again with all rookies

You’re getting to tap into Pandora’s Box get the unknown capture a more likely positive tail outcome as well as the negative so we don’t have a full zero on Keon but a lot of rookies we like more here’s I mean no one’s going to like this but I would compare him a

Little bit to Jonathan Mingo early second round pick you know it’s so funny so I was trying to find the mock drafts that had him first round and I found bugers didn’t have it found zerlin didn’t have it and I found the latest one on ESPN 33rd to the Panthers

Is exactly what they had and sorry I interrupt you but like when you said that and it came up on my screen at the exact same time I was like you’ve got to be kidding me I love it yeah no I think look he’s a better Prospect than

Mingo he definitely is he’s at early to Clare uh he was uh productive in his final season 39 34% Dominator rating um as a true Junior uh so we get the breakout season he was also productive in 2022 at Michigan State with a 29% Dominator rating um so not fair to just

Um you know call him Jonathan Mingo from like a pure Prospect profile he’s a better Prospect but I think you’re you’re mostly drafting him for the draft Capital um and kind of like he’s he’s a raw type of dude who’s winning with athleticism to a degree like that is

Kind of the the scouting report on him is that you know he he’s not very refined so there but but I kind of bring up Mingo in a weird way as a positive where there’s like a limit to how out you want to be on an early second round pick who’s got size

And athleticism and so I kind of like this is where I I feel comfortable with with the bet if he lands in a good spot then he he needs to come up and will come up and we’ll end up being behind but higher than we are now is it’s probably what will

Happen but you know there’s a lot of wide receiver in this class and any one of them could land in a good spot any one of them could land in a bad spot so it’s like it’s tough for me as we think through these wide receivers and the

Especially the ones we don’t like where you’re you’re trying to be humble about it and be like well you know this dude could be you know Josh Allen’s number two or something that’s pretty exciting but like so many of these guys could be Josh Allen’s number two and some one of

Them probably will be but um you know he could also be Bryce Young number two that’s not so anyway I think that’s kind of where where my head’s at with Coleman I I would bet that we end up you know kind of around here most of the the rest

Of the way and that could that could ultimately end up being like a big bear stance or a big bull stance uh depending on how kind of I I doubt we get much lower I think we we could raise um if he lands in a really good spot but I doubt

We get a ton lower I could see his ADP falling quite a bit past though yeah and like you said there are a lot of wide receivers that could be Josh Al some or to there are a lot of wide receivers that could go ahead of Keon Coleman

Draft Capital still now is in probabilities it’s uncertain and I think there’s a chance that he’s the one that’s falling if you spend enough time on Twitter looking at what film evaluators are saying even reputable ones I think they’re poking a lot more holes in Keon Coleman’s game than they

Are in any of the tops six to 10 wide outs so I think that of all the guys projected to get early draft Capital Keon would shock me the least if he fell into round three and I think we’re trying to account for that by having the

Bare position now because if he goes later than expected if he gets a poor landing spot we won’t have to adjust as much and we think it’s less likely than the market does that he goes either in the first round or to the good Landing spots of the markets perhaps wish cast

Right um lad makoni a guy that we were not in on ahead of the combine you know we like the rookies generally so we were at ADP heading into the combine but not someone we talked about this last time like I was like I’m not gonna promise to stay even with ADP

On lab makoni we could end up fading him uh he ran pretty fast so you know 43940 makes me you know feel like this dude could sneak into the the back into the first round um and more importantly he’s gonna go in the second round he’s

Not gonna fall to the third so you know he’s kind of like a floor pick generally you know you’re like this guy’s like a professional wide receiver out of the gate but I like that now I feel very good about and he’s also going to have

Second round draft cap at worst to go with that um not very productive four-year guy but was efficient uh really strong yards per out run over the course of his career finished really strong as well um lots of holes you can poke uh in terms of the the analytical

Stuff but has been someone that that the film guys have been in uh been in on the entire way uh the athleticism is only going to help I think the draft Capital will come in strong to very strong and so at this point like I guess it’s a

Similar situation where like I would rather take makoni at this price than trying to grab him in the eighth nth round I don’t really have any interest in that so it’s a similar maybe thing to ad Mitchell where it’s like hey you know he’s he’s a pretty good bet now to to get

Uncomfortable and at 126 it seems fine so I’m I’m G to try to get some now uh no thoughts on lad I’m I’m the lad Slappy among the These Guys these guys don’t want to hear it in our call we were really squinting to find reasons to

Like that and you know he had fine production in the games Brock Bowers didn’t play but at the end of the day if we think he’s possibly going to rise later and also we want to be in on rookie wide receivers we want enough humility in our own evaluation so I

Think makon is a fine pick possible eyes and like you said I mean Tim Robinson M Evergreen we’re all trying to find the guys that put Sky Moore in his rookie year so far up because of his landing spot and the market doesn’t necessarily ding the negative ones as much like or

Maybe it overly dings that I’m sure but we were getting Garrett Wilson at the 910 turn Jan doson at pick 132 just two years ago so you know the price of the brick if the brick is the rookie wide receiver has went up as Marlo would say

In The Wire oh yeah nice um Roman Wilson another guy that we are feeling better about after the combine but I just like his profile as well I mean it’s not a great it’s not like a bulletproof profile but um I’ve kind of felt like discount lad makoni the whole way and

Another guy that I could see sneaking into the first round we also got the you know the air miles per route run uh nugget last last pod I mean this dude was really checking a lot of boxes for a four-year guy who wasn’t all that productive yeah I feel like from a very

High level not to compare their play Styles like imagine if lad makoni broke out that’s probably what Roman Wilson is like power five stays in school for four years but Wilson did I believe top a 30% Dominator very 38% 38% last very touchd down fuel but he got there and and lad I

Don’t think ever got close to a 30% Dominator so like as far as guys who broke out late in their career like do it at a strong power five program and don’t stay for six years National Title yeah like there are worse there are worse profiles and we’re not having to

Pay for this at uh ranked at wide receiver 62 which is 14 spots ahead of 80P so I don’t know what he is an ADP but it’s got to be like wide receiver like 68 or something yeah what we got uh the ADP is

153 so yeah I mean he’s he’s risen a lot he used to be a guy that you could get in the 200s then uh I remember around pick 180 we we started taking a bigger stance on him um and yeah so he’s risen substantially but these are rounds where

It doesn’t really matter these picks aren’t worth very much he’s he’s a two or maybe three he’s probably $2 auction value and he went from undrafted to a $2 auction value right so you know I I think we still want to be taking him like you it’s nice if you have a bunch

Of him early and and you probably have a fair amount uh if you’ve been using the rankings but if you don’t like reaching a little bit to get him now is is totally fine it’s not if he were to move up another 15 picks then maybe or I guess

He moved up like 15 picks above where we have him ranked you know if he’s a pick like 120 then okay maybe we need to start thinking a little bit more about the price but right now I’m feeling like uh you know you still he’s not like the

Biggest priority ever but I I like I definitely like drafting Roman Wilson I think the where do you guys like Daniel do you see him as live for the end of the first round I think live in the sense of nonzero I’d say it’s 10% maybe 5% but I

Think he’s probably a second round pick maybe 10 to 20% maybe 10 to 25% in the third round but I think at the price that the Market’s offering he’s still a good buy so you think he still could fall to the third uh even after pretty prettyy strong combine yeah with how many

Receivers that there are I think that there’s inevitably going to be one that falls someone were going to say we had this guy we all agreed that like a reasonable line is like pick 39 or pick 42 like he’s a mid to high first or second round pick and there are just

Enough of them that one of them’s gonna get bad luck and if it was going to be someone it’d probably be like a didn’t really produce anything in college player yeah and if we assign 10% probabilities to 15 10 to 15 receivers to go in round three inevitably one or

Two of them will so we’re not projecting round three for a specific one but any of them could be yeah and I guess I don’t think he did the jumps so we don’t have a Ras for him but um what was his 40 was pretty good uh pulling it up here 40

Time a 439 so you do like that um all right Jaylen Wright we’re in on Jaylen Wright now uh the Youtube comment was correct uh he did in fact crush the combine he also has uh pretty good size um so you know I’d still say he like comes

Out I’m not like the most in on Jaylen Wright in terms of like his statistical profile is still a little spotty but you’re getting with 9.8 81 Ras score he’s also pretty young um finished up college at 20.8 so not even 21 years old uh and yeah I mean he’s he’s much more

Likely now I think or at least than I thought before to get like pretty strong draft Capital so we’re hunting for the guy who could be you know that second round pick and get slotted in as you know the 1A in his rookie season or he’s

Like position to be the 1A down the stretch uh you know he’s he’s 210 so he’s not like that much bigger than Blake km but he’s he’s 511 210 corm 5825 right with the superior athleticism does feel like a a meaningfully better bet to just be like

A you know a 1A back um kind of a guy who’s like a like a paying off a sixth round uh ADP at the end of August if everything from here on out goes perfect yeah with how weak the the running back class is and I talked about the receiver

Class showing really well at the combine on the whole running back class like estimate if he shows well could have been the rb3 in the class but instead like the a the the great athletes were like Isaac guerendo or whatever like committee committee back uh Tyrone Tracy

I believe was like the second or third Ras like former wide receiver six-year declare like just super late into his uh like playing football career and then it’s Trey Benson crushed but after that like there’s probably a pretty big big mix of guys you could consider the fourth or third running

Back corm was in there Esme was in there Wright was in there to me Wright I don’t want to say clearly separate himself but put himself in a strong position to be the number three back of this class that could end up like we said that could be

The guy who gets late second round draft capital and by week 10 is just purely the starter on his team yeah even with early or mid third round draft Capital if the cards flop in the right way he can still become the lead back even with third round draft Capital which I think

Is far more likely now than it was a week ago and a tidb on Isaac gendo he’s not even in the underdog player pool so talking about players that came out of nowhere yeah now should we have right ahead of korm yes I say I say we should I mean we

Have to respect the market to some level I would be shocked if our internal ranks didn’t have right ahead of Korum but given that there’s 33 they did too and there we have them one we have them just like this we have them one pick behind

But I flipped that fli do it coward I flipped it good um all right so Wright comes out one spot ahead in the in the now so uh by the time you watch this we will have have flipped this right now ahead of Blake corn um zaver get uh he

Is another guy kind of a maconi style Guy where we weren’t that in um he was a little smaller than expected at Senior Bowl um and that probably made me overly nervous about him uh he’s kind of like Keon Coleman e where it’s like a lot of

It is about the athleticism and so I’m like man if this if the athleticism any sign I was very sensitive to signs about you know how good the athleticism was because it’s so important to his uh to his profile you know like that’s that’s the cell on

Him but he’s really athletic so you know post combine knowing that um feeling better about you know his draft Capital now as well um I think we should be we should be in on zavier Legette unless he gets really expensive and this is this is still pretty

Cheap I probably not g be on him like fifth year breakout Still Still the Scout saying still like you know more based on athleticism is what we like he’s he still probably a little more raw like five years that’s how long it took you to break out and you’re still not

Refined as a as a player like I get he’s super cheap so it probably doesn’t make much of a difference but like and it’s such a deep class that are you really going to have people looking at him stacking him up we’re talking about lad makoni who like I don’t love it’s

Probably honestly a better Prospect than Legette as like oh lad could be the guy who falls a third legga probably it’d be a pretty big win if he got on a date to for me so I’m I don’t mind that we have him this high but because it doesn’t

It’s really late in the draft and I like taking shots on rookies but just wait you you you think it’d be a win for him to go day two yeah I’d be pretty surprised if he goes day two I would be surprised if he went round two I think it’s less likely

Than a coin flip for round two I’d be more surprised if he went day three I think he’s probably a round three pick and though in the descriptions giving the dog whistles of Coleman and makoni the two guys we’ve probably given the most negative Buzz to isn’t the best

Sign for how we look at the evaluations of the players internally no I don’t love I don’t love Legette but I think he’s going day two I mean he’s 221 he just put up a 43940 a 40inch vert 126 in broad jump like I don’t know I mean I think like I

Would be happy to draft this guy in round three with a bunch of a bunch like I I think he’s a great third round pick I mean that’s like you’re you should be spending third round picks on you know High upside guys who yeah I mean he he

Didn’t break out till I think his fifth year fifth year breakout fifth year breakout he didn’t he didn’t get over 200 yards until his fifth year yeah it’s not it’s not ideal um but you know if he’s gonna be able to overcome uh maybe you know maybe is not

The most refined guy but he has the athletic ISM to overcome that potentially the other thing is I guess wish he overcame it in college would love that he did his final season 3.15 yards per route run in his final season is really good but uh what was his

Underclassman yards per route run I don’t want to talk about that is it below one it might be below one I think it’s below one it’s below 1.5 because he never hit that once yeah no I think it must be below one so 2019 0.42 1.15

0.51 uh yeah I can actually pull up his underclass from yards for run it’s going to be really bad it was 0.62 so what if you include his his senior year not his final year because he’s he played five but include his senior year see what

Happens I’m done with this we moving on all right listen he’s he’s gonna get drafted shut up and listen shut up and listen he’s going to get drafted round three because of the athleticism and size he’s going to be out there running routes in the final weeks of the season

And you know who didn’t have one yards per route run in the NFL last year Jan doson okay who’s gonna be running routes in week 17 Xavier Legette or Jan doson we do want to be price sensitive on Xavier Legette but I think we still are

By taking him around pick 150 ahead of ADP we’re not going to be chasing Legette up this is not a position of us saying we’re gonna make sure to stay ahead of ADP on Xavier Legette no this is a you probably don’t have any Xavier Legette it’s probably a good idea to

Have some Xavier Legette given the athleticism given the draft capital I think is probably pretty good um and so this is like kind of the the time to do it before I would hate to be taking him at 120 that that seems no fun you know yeah

And importantly there are still ways to win with these rookie players even if the draft Capital projection even if we think that’s pretty locked in if he goes fourth F round he can still be productive at the end of the season I infly said at Perry was my most drafted player last year

Pre-draft thought he was going third round went early six late round five caught touchdown in one of the playoff leags so just because he was out on the field because they gave a rookie a chance to run routes at the end of the year so that thesis will be alive with

Legette no matter what round he’s drafted granted with different probabilties and more likely the earlier he gets drafted right by the way there was a comment on the last uh podcast and we’re talking a lot about uh wide receiver athleticism and the comment was that you know the comat doesn’t really matter for

Wide receivers um and I think it’s kind of actually an interesting topic so I wanted to to bring it up since we’re talking so much about the athleticism I think wide receiver athleticism definitely matters but it’s largely baked into draft capital yeah but I do think we’re also like every

Time we mention it we’re like you say he’s a good athlete he’s probably going third round for Legette you’re probably right honestly he’s an incredible athlete that’s so crazy how how athletic he is at that size for how big he is and we talked about it with worthy as well

Like to be that fast like the NFL is going to care a lot and I think that’s like an important distinction to make that I feel like we’ve made yeah but that I guess what I say once Legette gets third round Capital we’re not going to be then giving him boost for being

Super athletic yes he’s he got drafted in the third round because he’s super athletic that’s the only reason we’re baking in like 80% of his athleticism right now because we’re correlating that with with uh his draft stock like maybe once he gets third round we boost him a

Few picks because it wasn’t a guarantee that he was going to go in the third round but we should have most of it baked in and we’re goingon to be wrong on some of these guys but on the whole we’re using this combine as a really

Good way to Tool in what we think draft capital is going to be exactly exactly I also think just you know Adam lanan has an article that he does every year where he goes through kind of like minimum thresholds that he’s looking for like if we’re looking for guys from fantasy

Perspective we would like them to hit these kind of Baseline like don’t be a bad athlete kind of situation that also matters to me as well like I would like to see these guys kind of Hit the minimums hit the minimums and then the the excess athleticism is really just kind of

Helping us dial and draft Capital yeah I think that using draft Capital as Like Instrumental or proxy variable using athleticism as that variable for draft Capital until we actually get draft capital is prudent once we get towards late April and we’re getting enough data and sites like grinding the mocks will’ll be collecting

It we can then start adjusting and saying hey thousands of mock drafts are having Xavier liette in the fourth round then we’ll probably want to adjust and say okay that’s probably a better indicator of projected draft Capital than the athleticism and again athleticism isn’t the end all Beall but

It’s a heavy waiting factor for us this early in the process yes so let’s talk two other really athletic guys Ricky peol and TZ walker uh both of them had TZ Walker had a 9.86 Ras Ricky piol at 9.78 um piol ran a 44140 a 42 inch vertical 129 in broad

Jump uh so you know he’s kind of seen I think more as like just like a a does the Dirty Work type of receiver but pretty athletic um TZ Walker’s athleticism not listed on Raz let me pull it up but I think he was pretty

Fast in the 40 as well so both guys I think probably in that second third round discussion but with that level of athleticism I feel better about them actually you know Landing that draft capital and generally with wide receivers I really like them to go day

Two um I get nervous when guys fall to day three we’ve had some really big hits from day three uh obviously puka AA I’m ring Brown so it’s not like we’re out but generally uh the hit rates are much stronger for wide receivers that go day

Two rather than uh day three so I feel better about both guys with this athleticism yeah on on TZ Walker he had a he didn’t run the agility drills and I think you know not a ton of guys are running the agility drills these days at

Wide receiver but I do think the fact that a guy who is like clearly a straight line Speedster and he crushed it in that respect he ran a 436 at 62 just shy of 6’2 actually 193 988 Ras like super strong super strong athlete you can probably say he’s probably not

In the 99th pertile because he opted not to run the agility drills right but he he wins in the terrible after the catch exactly and people are like yeah he’s a straight line Runner he’s really good at it so I I think it’s intuitive to say he

Would not have held up a 988 Ras with the agility drills but also not that big of a deal in terms of what we think he is going to do because we knew this already we kind of had an idea of what his skill set was and it was to run

Really fast and also he’s a good uh High contested catch rate winner so he did exactly what we would hope he would do at the combine based on what he did in college and I do think he’s a really interesting Prospect he’s a seconde breakout then again a monster dominator

In a terrible situation North Carolina where I think Eric I don’t is this on this pod feed where Eric talked to you about like he had a transfer situation where like wasn’t allowed to play for a while and one day they buddy you’re back

On the team so to come in yeah it was crazy I mean he like literally didn’t know if he was gonna play for them his final year didn’t know the plays kind of situation um didn’t you know the the tape is not great on him from from what

I understand not studied it myself when you look at UNC but if you go back to Kent State suddenly he looks a lot better and it’s like well maybe it’s because he knew where to go yeah yeah uh and I believe his uh yards per route run at UNC was

Relatively weak as well but like I would to give him a lot of credit for pretty decent let me pull oh was it maybe it was theer I don’t remember but I like regard even like the same thing with the tape like if the tape’s not great for a

Guy who didn’t know any of the plays and didn’t know if he was going to be playing and he still put up numbers right maybe it wasn’t the prettiest numbers you’ve ever seen but still put up like a really strong Dominator as well I believe like I’m gonna give him a

Lot of credit for that and then he goes to the combine and reaffirms that’s exactly who he is he’s a bursty rangy speed guy with reasonable size like actually I like TZ Walker a lot in terms of like deep shots he can take yeah yeah 32% Dominator rating um at UNCC and he

Did that with okay efficiency 2.28 yards per rout run um he had a 50% Dominator rating at 2022 at Kent State you want guess is on how many games because you know dominated rating can be driven by touchdowns um he had a 65% touchdown share so you know that that’s definitely

Driving it 36% yardage share you play you only play a few games you know you can have this outrageous Dominator R guess is on games how many games he played played like nearly the whole season 11 12 oh he played all night it’s a legit it’s a legit 50% now it is touchdown

Driven as I mentioned 36% yardage share but that’s still really good yeah 36 is like 30 is is a really strong predictive threshold for us even at Ken State like doing it in your second year 36 if it was just 36 touchdown and 36 yards you’d

Be like that is a good breakout season then for him to carry it over to UNC proves that it wasn’t purely based on him playing a lower level of competition and on top of that it wasn’t just a 36% Dominator he crushed in the touchdown apartment which also does obviously

Matter yeah we we do like that touchdowns uh can can be quite helpful 2.62 yards per out run that uh 2022 season at Kent State so which isn’t like amazing but it’s it’s starting to get where you’re like that’s pretty good so TZ Walker I I would say a guy if he were

To get like super super Buzzy I would start to be a little bit nervous about the yards after catch you know he’s a four-year guy you know you do have some concerns about the production profile it’s not perfect but yeah just with the athleticism coming in starting to feel

Really really good about a bull stance that we’ve had the entire way on him um but now I think kind of it’s a weird thing like now I’m even more confident we’re 26 27 picks above ADP on him um but again like these the difference

Between pick 200 and pick 159 is not not really that much so I think there’s a lot of wrong there’s a lot of wrong answers on this board right now as we scroll around there’s a bunch of guys you you’re sorry you picked starting to feel pretty confident he’s you know at

Least someone you’re you’re happy to have on your advancing rosters you know if you see if you flip over the cards and it’s week 16 and you got TZ Walker I think you probably feel pretty okay about that yeah and I think that sentiment is a good description of how

We want all these late round rookies you want to just mix enough of them into your portfolio because even if they go down ADP there’s still paths to Ping off and especially if they go up an ADP get the draft capital or just flat out play well which is probably the most

Important thing you have ways for them to pay off so this is like the rookie and then our ratings accordingly are sort of flashing signs to say yeah you should be mixing this player in overweight positions generally if they’re not named Keon Coleman yeah and hopefully he falls and

We can take him I don’t I don’t want to be f in these rookies a bunch um oh Javon Baker We need to add the rookie tag to him weirdly um Baker is someone I’m starting to get pretty excited about um what out a UCF not the not like my favorite

Profile uh is I was kind of he just was like a classic guy I’m like he’s just kind of got lost in the shuffle for me a little bit like he’s kind of fine um but Baker what what was his athleticism did he

Fully test or not do we have a r on him I think it was in the sevens but we should probably double check let’s see Javon Baker 4.54 40 7 in vertical 121 inch broad jump yeah 7.71 R so decent athlete functional not extraordinary but I think we’re more

Likely than not to get round three draft capital I think Dane Brugler though it could have been one of the other Premier film analysts had some positive things to say about him so again another player you should be mixing in yeah I think it’s like the draft Capital starting to

Feel decent about that didn’t crush the combine so we’re not like as excited um as like pea and TZ Walker but he’s starting to stand out a little bit from some of the other like total Dart throws um although where did Jermain Burton go he’s above here I think let’s

See uh Germaine Burton 185 um he’s another guy that I’m starting to feel pretty good about oh we’re actually ahead of uh Baker’s ahead of Burton maybe I’ve gotten too excited on Baker because I like Burton a lot Burton was uh productive in his final season in Alabama um

He’s he’s he’s a very kind of he’s going to be an annoying fantasy player definitely a better better in beste ball type of guy where he you didn’t like very low targets per route run true deep threat type uh only had 39 receptions in his final season and that was the Good

Year you know kind of uh gonna be boom bust but you know we like we like that archetype more in best ball for sure um and he tested very well at the combine as well so uh those those are kind of two of my favorite Dart throws Burton

Moore for the a is in boom bus profile Baker is kind of more um we think he’s getting decent draft Capital seems like a pretty solid player looking at the profile yeah and importantly when we look at these players the rookies are probably the best bets to not be awful

Players we have two years of evidence with trayon Burks three years with Rashad baitman though this year I swear it’ll be different with Rashad baitman you know after three har talked them up at the combine or whatever the the opening pressers this is the one baby we’re getting all

Um so at what point at what point in the Martin Gale strategy does it tell you you’ve run out of money because I think we’ve reached that with baitman but I didn’t actually get that far in the in the book about doing the Martin Gill [Laughter]

Strategy you ran out before you even got to that part of the book yeah yeah yeah um you’re right though that like I’m pretty sure and I liked Burks and baitman as prospects and even Elijah Moore and like we can be pretty sure that they’re not very good maybe they

Turn things around and they’re serviceable but like that would be a win if these guys are like solid teams third receivers at this point would be a win relative to where they are uh Burton Baker and the guys going in this range they’re probably not as likely to be a

Team’s third receiver maybe over the course of their career but they’re much more likely at this point to be a team’s second or a 1B because they still have that in the range of outcomes I don’t think they have that in the range of outcomes for Burks init anymore I mean

If the Browns just bring back Joe Flaco quarterback they’ll get Elijah Moore huming like he’s done in the five or six game sample but besides that he’s been atrocious he he only steps up when he gets competent quarterback by it can’t really fault him yeah I mean I think the the way to

Think through these is at this point you know who’s more likely to give you a spike week in week 15 16 or 17 like that’s that is what we’re drafting you know this is we’re in the 180s here like that’s that pays off the pick you know and yeah

We’d love to hit on a puka we’d love to hit on a Kiron but like so hard to find and they’re not available every year you know sometimes they are sometimes they aren’t so if you can get like one nice Spike week out of a guy in this range

Which I honestly do think baitman and Burks are still alive for so is Elijah Moore that’s why they’re here but you know this is a spot where Burton Baker are starting to emerge as it’s pretty interesting versions of that bet um so yeah I think we’re we’re still need the

Draft Capital come through if if I I would say post-draft we’re probably going to have to lower a fair amount of these wide receivers because not all of them are going to go day two but the ones who we raise we probably still are going to be raising substantially so this is we’ve

Said this a bunch of times but I do think you want to spread out your bets because we’re going to miss with this group but we’re going to miss with low value picks that aren’t worth a bunch and we’re going to hit by getting guys who are seriously adding to our

Roster and at a big discount relative to what they’re going to cost this summer so that’s the overall play here um and and if that is the play then you don’t want to show up with a giant bag of Germaine Burton and be like I did it I drafted

Rookies no because Burton’s a sixth rounder unexpectedly you know the NFL just wasn’t interested and and uh that that’s not going to do anything for you now so yeah yeah in the ideas of searching for Spike weeks again with 20 rounds you have two more spots to

Attempt to get one of those Spike weeks it’s why Darius slayton’s been a fixture of a lot of I think sharper drafters especially 20 round rosters because you’re just hunting for the 50 to 60 yard touchdown or four catches 70 yards one touchdown a few intermediate play

Sprinkled in so now is the time to do it and the chance to get extreme ADP returns even though you acknowledge there is some downside risk because inevitably a few of these rookies will go lower than expected just like many will go higher than expected so part of

The game yeah I think it’s like one of these things I I don’t think the market is fully pricing in the upside that these guys are second round picks or even third round picks with some of them um and so it’s like even if they go at expected or slightly higher than

Expected they’re going to rise substantially in 80P I mean if if Germaine Burton is a second round pick you know with a solid landing spot he’s going at 185 at the end of August like there’s no way and now we and completely forget about yeah Rashid rice went from

Basically undrafted final few rounds to around ADP 130 and still proved to be one of the best values I don’t know where Sky Moore went pre-draft I know where he went at the end of August of his rookie year so you’re getting potential I would say morvin Mims is

Probably a better yeah example than rice because Mims was not someone we were really drafting uh in the big board at the very end after he ran really well to combine he started to to get drafted some um but was like I remember I did a draft with Zack Krueger on ffpc before

The combine and he floated Marvin Mims as like our last round pick and I was like oh I need to look more into Marvin and so you know shout out to Zach for being ahead of the curve because then Mims you know Mims didn’t have a a

Really productive rookie year but he got a lot more expensive and I think this is kind of the range when we talk not just Burton but Baker TZ Walker Ricky peera like that’s kind of the range we’re we’re talking about where you know maybe this guy’s going um in

Like the 12th round uh or the 11th round it depending on like if he gets a really good landing spot maybe they’re um in the D in the single digit rounds if even if they don’t but the draft Capital comes in they’re going to move up a lot

In ADP from the 180s so most excited about the pier saww walker uh Duo you know still a little bit excited about Burton and Baker they’re down in the 200s um we are a little bit interested in the Washington guys Jaylen McMillan were a headon uh Jaylen pulk were

Actually slightly behind on but but certainly not out on on him um I’ve actually taken a fair amount of he tends to fall in like any given draft he’ll fall you can grab him a little bit past ADP we’re one point6 picks behind ADP so

Not a big fade stance there by any means um any of these other rookies to talk through before we move on and talk Dalton Schultz for the last four minutes well you’re gonna I didn’t have any other rookies you’re going to love this though uh Hayden Hurst was cut so

We could probably drop another 30 minutes in here on that and then I think I think we’re what team was he on Panthers they cut him for $52,000 in savings I kid you not yeah they gave him like a three-year $21 million contract something yeah his contract’s like fully

Guaranteed this year and they cut him anyways okay sorry no I I I think we get ran the gamut of rookies uh for me and I have a out at 230 so okay well let’s talk dton Schulz who there was talk last year of like what what is the point of

Dton Schultz and you can take hayen Hurst you know that kind of thing and it’s like uh there actually pretty big difference dton Schultz just signed a three-year deal um and you know maybe we were a little too bearish on his chances of returning uh he’s not been someone

That you’ve had a ton of uh if you’ve been using the rankings you know we want him now this is this is a big deal that he’s back with the Texans Schultz is you know to the point of like the Hayden Hurst stuff he’s probably not that different than a

Hayden Hurst from a talent perspective maybe he’s a little bit better but you know he’s not like this big difference making talent but he’s good enough and now he’s tied to CJ Stroud you know this is as we were discussing where to put him is he that different than Dallas

Gard who’s you know going still like in our in our rankings uh we have him 16 Picks behind uh Dallas scard but that’s an ADP thing you know I think we could if his ADP Rises substantially the ranking will rise along with Dalton Schultz I think he’d be totally fine if you’re taking

Him around pick 100 or just after yeah and with Schultz preferee agency there are rumors that he was drawing heavy interest from teams with cap space generally the teams with cap space are the ones you don’t want to be going to that much the Patriots were floated as a big Target

Again player goes to the Patriots probably going to lower them this offseason so I think that I think the Texans probably Ed that as leverage you’re going to end up signing with the Patriots unless you resign Bud yeah so we feel good with Schultz immediately once we saw the contract said how many

Of these fools can we put them above answer is at least 30 of them so Le yeah yeah any thoughts on Schultz C no I’m just imagining then like you know whoever uh is doing the contract negotiations sending sending Schult in his Camp the link to over the cap it’s

Just like 2024 cap table sorted and like Patriots are at the top commanders maybe isn’t that bad but like Titans are at the top or whatever and he’s like all right I’m coming back I’m coming back I love it all right that’ll do it for this episode um I’m gonna be doing

Another episode very shortly with Davis madak talking through some of the combined stuff so uh there’s more rookie combine talk on the way uh but thank you uh Daniel thank you Kyle for jumping on any anything you want to shout out guys I will have I’ll have an article I

Pulled like I pulled my TZ Walker and my uh Germaine Burton stuff from an article that will probably be out uh we’ll call it Wednesday all right check that out I’ll see you very soon uh enjoy uh your big board drafts and yeah be back on

Soon with Davis mic talk to you then