152: Model, Form and Horse for Course: The Players Championship

On today’s show, Ryan goes over his model for The Players Championship, looks at short-term form, horses for courses and what makes a champion at TPC Sawgrass.

Hey everybody Welcome to the Press great to have you here for our middle show of the week we’re going to go over the model for The Players Championship we’ll talk a little bit about the the setup for all of that talk about current form horses for courses we’ll talk a little

Bit about course spit although I prefaced this yesterday by saying there really isn’t any and it’s not there just aren’t many golfers that are built this way and the ones that are they don’t play so good so it it’s kind of a an anomaly on the PGA tour in that regard

But we’ll talk through all of that here here on today’s show if you want to join golf Newsnet join for $40 per year golfnet.com it’s been great to see some additional memberships this year having people join in I think we’re at the right price point you get access to all

The tools everything that we’re doing including the modeling that we talk about here in the show the top 10 that we talk about here because I think the top 10 is generally pretty obvious I don’t think it’s all that difficult to figure out who the top 10 players are in

A given tournament however once you get beyond that you start to get into the 20s and 30s and 40s then you start to think about players who might be punching above their weight or might be punching above their price either in the DFS Market or for our sake in the

Betting market and so that’s where I think you have your your best opportunity that’s where you can you can make your money especially in a world where we just got our first sub 40 to1 winner of the year not saying that’s going to continue forever and past results is not indicative of future

Results but it is important I think to have those tools at your disposal so we’ll go through a little bit of that here as well today but let’s start with where we start pretty much every week in this middle show and that is the model for

The week now the model for the week is the caveats that we always talk about we talk about one and twoe windows we talk about the last 10 events we talk about the last three years of a tournament kind of put all that together Strokes gained is our measure right

Right and strokes gains cousin that we use is called quality Strokes gained and that is a multiplied quality stroke multiply measure of Strokes gain to gets the quality of your competition so we put that all together and you you wind up with this this ranking each week that

We do and in weeks like this one where this is a higher owgr value event right it’s a minimum 80 points so we I I kind of put the range and I I consider a range of tournaments not just oh every tournament that has 80 points it’s a

Range and I actually include the major championships in this one because it is a major championship caliber tournament I know it is not a major championship but it has that caliber field and has that kind of value to it yes you can say that there are players from live who are missing from

This tournament that diminish the value of that and I completely agree with you but it’s still an extremely deep tournament and that’s important to note that that’s part of the the evaluation this week of the field because that creates higher values because you have a higher multiplier right you have a

Multiplier closer to two for some tournaments for the majors because you get 100 points and then you move over two decimal places and then um you wind up multiplying that by two that’s how I I weighed it so you get double basically double Strokes gained points for the

Quality Strokes gain in Majors you understand where I’m coming from so if you’re trying to put all that together here’s what we’ve got for the week Scotty Sheffer is number one Far and Away he’s got 3.48 points I don’t even know if I’ve ever seen someone in the

Three plus years almost four years of doing this yeah it’s almost four years of doing this model and I’ve I’ve never seen someone at three I mean that’s crazy he’s just playing that much better than everybody else that’s why his odds are 550 that the that’s just the way

That it is is he is better than everyone else and if he can putt it all he’s going to win he’s going to become the first player in 50 years of this tournament to successfully defend the title that’s obviously a big if we know about sheffer’s Scott uh putting woes

But that’s why right that’s why he’s 12,800 on DraftKings he’s 1,200 more than anybody else he is that much better than everyone else Rory Mao is number two Scotty or excuse me Xander shley is number three Patrick hlay is number four will zures is number five when Clark’s

Number six Shane Lowry is number seven he was like 207th last week because he added another great week and we have increased the waiting of that a little bit to make it a little bit more Dynamic a little bit more reflective of you know the current um current

System and I also think he tends to play well in bigger tournaments and when that happens you get your multiplier right so he makes sense here he’s been playing great the last couple times out had a chance to win on Sunday both times just didn’t get it done in the cognizant

Classic and over at Bay Hill then you got Max hom eth Victor havin ninth ADI 10th Ludy oberg number 11 Justin Thomas number 12 I’ll point out some other guys that are of interest to me sunj m is 20th Ben On’s 22nd Sam Burns 24 Jason day 25 Denny

McCarthy 28 Austin neck Root’s moved to 30th I mean he’s he’s been playing Great Golf Brian Haron is 37th I actually think Brian Haron deserves better than that but again over the long-term window that’s just kind of the reality of it so there are a lot of interesting names on

This list Adam had one I think a lot of people are going to like this week is 43rd Nick Taylor is 44th again a guy to bet Kirk kyama 47th I think much better than his 150 to1 rankings so uh some guys to think about there in that that

Longer range the guy I’m going to bring up he’s 57th in the model and for good reason he’s 200 to1 but Maverick mcney is playing very good golf he has never won on the PGA tour and that is why he is 200 to1 also he’s coming back from

Injury but in recent form as we’ll get to in a few minutes he’s playing really really well so I I do want to bring him up here sah thala does not rank very well in this tournament because he hasn’t he just doesn’t have enough starts I think long-term success starts

To really rank move him up the ranking he will move up quite significantly this year but I do want to look also at our current form right so before we get to the current form though I do want to do the the quote unquote shortterm model that we have for

Our members and bring some of that up in into play so obviously I take a longer term approach with the model that we’ve run week to week that we just talked about and I think that’s the proper way to rank players is to look at them who

They are who they’ve been not who they are this minute but sometimes who they are this minute wins so there’s a difference between ranking them and betting on them and if you look at the last 10 events played I think you get a good idea fair Fairly

Good window of who’s playing great and why they’re playing great and so we have a short-term model that looks those last 10 events and tries to Green Light players based on three categories whether they are above 1.5 five Strokes gain per round on the average in those 10 events in quality Strokes gained

Above 1.2 Strokes per round in Strokes gain total or above 6 Strokes per round in Strokes game on the approach I really don’t care about off the te I really don’t care about around the green or putting unless they make you just objectively worse like way worse if

You’re in the negative on those that’s that’s something or way in the negative on those that’s something different but I really care about your approach play because if you can gain Strokes on the approach then putting may work out in your favor eventually you might have a

Good week putting and that might be good enough if you gain Strokes on the approach well you can overcome some bad driving pretty well that means you’re doing okay and if you have a better week driving the ball you may have a better week on the approach you may have a

Better week putting everything work you know you’re just one fast of the game basically away from potentially winning so that all said uh quality Strokes gain numbers for this tournament in this field there are five players who are above 1 .5 Scotty sheffler is way above Matthew

Pavon will zores wam Clark and Shane Lowry anyone who’s kind of close in the end uh Doug gim is close 1. 1486 U matama is close 1.43 6 Nick Taylor’s close-ish 1368 same with Sam Burns qual or total Strokes gained again anywhere above that 1. two Mark looks we’ve got

Nine guys Sheffer pavon Doug gim zator Clark Lowry Mitchell Taylor and believe it or not Billy H horel and that’s a little deceptive because his short game has been incredible lately I mean staggeringly good lately and that’s what’s saving him everything else is kind of blah and

There’s not a whole lot of value in short game at this golf course if you’re thinking in terms of you know fit so that’s a little bit dis receptive but it is worth noting I suppose and then on the approach you’re looking at an interesting group here because you’ve

Got someone like a Franchesco Molinari who hasn’t played a lot but is gaining on the approach you got Tom hogi who’s gaining on the approach but negative in two fastest of the game he’s he’s almost there at a really good level I think you got to like him this week Austin NE road

Is right there again not the best off the tea not the best putter but there’s a reason he’s he’s won recently it’s the approach Play Jake knap Lucas Glover but Lucas Glover’s putting is so bad it’s it cancels out the approach play I mean that’s that’s bad when you’re more than

Canceling out your good approach play with your putting you’re unable rio He said soon same thing really good approach play but he’s not he’s marginally bad off the te he’s pretty bad with the putter that’s what costs him so much then you got zot Taurus game we’ve

Talked about those guys Ryan Moore bad at everything but the approach I mean truly bad at everything but the approach Scott Stallings great approach play terrible putter I mean it so bad that he should consider changing Styles the deim matama and Ben Silverman is in there Ben Silverman’s kind of interesting because

He gains a little bit off the te gains a little bit around the green but does not with the putting he’s negative with the putting so if he could if he could figure out just a little bit better with the putter oh it’s right there um and a

Bunch of guys are like that are that are just underneath that point 6 Mark Cory Connor negative putting Tony feno way negative putting see W Kim negative putting Justin Thomas negative putting Zack Blair negative putting Alex norin might be your one exemption to that and he’s negative on the drive same thing

With minw negative on the drive they they’re just bad for now Andrew Novak is an interesting case to me I think he’s like 2001 180 to1 whatever his number is we’ll come back to that but he’s at 462 per round on the approach which is respectable 261 off the T also

Respectable gaining around the greens but just negative on the putting and that’s like mini Scotty Sheffer syndrome of you’re not that good but this is the formula where you’re good at two to three facets of the game but man that putting stinks and if you could just

Turn that around a little bit you could probably win and the formula for Sheffer seems very similar where he’s gaining a ton off the te a ton off the te gaining well enough on the approach gaining considerably with the short game and gaining just enough with

The Putter and last week helped a lot so if he can kind of put that together Andrew Novak he could be a really interesting guy for a d of bet I’m going to point that out Brian Haron I love his game but he struggles to gain off the te and he’s

Not putting as well as he could this season looked a lot better at Bay Hill though so I I do want to point that out then I do want to get into the current form course fit horses for courses let’s start with course fit because it’s going

To be the shortest conversation there is no course fit if you look at the numbers of the players you gain in the top 25 on the average in this tournament historically it’s 27% putting and 73% te green that’s one of the lowest on the PGA tour of a a consistent

Host what I want you to take away from that isn’t the breakdown of 19% off the T 41% of the approach 133% of rather green anyone can play well at this golf course anyone can play poorly at this golf course what I want you to take away is the disparity between putting and

Everything else it’s the everything else that matters here putting doesn’t matter quite as much here because the greens are hard to read they aren’t particularly huge most of the time they have a lot of sections that feed to other parts there are specific areas within those sections that you have to

Hit to be successful so you need to be on especially with your decision-making especially with your course management and that’s something we don’t quantify here we don’t have a way of quantifying course management very well at least so I think two I think two things come to

Mind when I think about corfit one guys who don’t make bad choices if you make dumb choices in this tournament you will pay eventually you will pay and it will catch up to you the other thing is you’ve got to be able to find a way to

Play your best game teer green to give yourself chances you’re going to make Bogies in this tournament you want to avoid doubles triples quads you know those kinds of huge numbers that’s true for any huge Championship if you avoid the big number you give yourself a chance I think there’s a statistic going

Around there’s there hasn’t been a Masters champion God knows how long with worse than a double bogey on the card at any point in the tournament that’s true for pretty much every major you can’t make worse than double on this golf course or any big tournament and hope to

Win so that comes from making smart choices it also comes from being able to play well off the te not finding yourself in horrible positions off the te and when you do just kind of swallowing your pride and doing what you got to do to make a par not trying to

Hit a hero shot and that there is a humbling to that that is it’s difficult for a lot of players because they are so good let’s talk about event history there are only guys in this field that have two top 15 finishes or better in the last five year five five times it

Was played not five years because 2020 wasn’t finished so going back five years excluding 2020 there is nobody with more than two top 15s so that tells you a little something about how hard it is to be consistent on this golf course it is extremely difficult to do that said here’s our

Guys Adam hadwin Brian Haron Max H Victor havin Shane Lowry a Dei Mets Justin Rose thing about a lot of those guys you got two you got a good short game guy in briyan Harman a pretty good short game guy and Chan Lowry but most of these guys are solid all

Around deim matama is a bad putter he’s a great tto green player so I think you have to consider that very strongly thinking about this week there there isn’t really an arc type that works here all right so let’s get into the current form plays so we’re

Looking at the last five PGA Tour events played here uh really throwing in the sixth because of the Puerto Rico open but no one that played there is is really a part of this I mean Marty lar maybe but that’s it other than that you’re you know you weren’t playing that tournament last

Week but here we go Sam Burns has a couple Doug gim Tom hogi Jake nap has a win in there Martin La as mentioned last two events back toback in the top 10 Shane Lowry thei matama Mt MCD we talked about him earlier T6 Phoenix t13 in the

Mexico open Andrew Novak has three which I feel like people are just kind of forgetting this but T8 T8 T9 from Phoenix Mexico and and PJ National three very different golf courses Scotty Sheffer has three Nick Taylor has two sah theala has two Phoenix Open T5 T6 at

API I think that’s something to keep in mind Justin Thomas is going to fall off the radar a little bit this week couple of T12 Phoenix and the API Eric vanroy and Cameron young and will allat torus so that’s kind of the collection for uh for the week again I

Think being a better long-term player is more important than being a better shortterm player but a lot of the guys on this list of multiple top 15s of recent memory are both you know Jake Gap is Young right he’s he’s new he’s got what 10 PJ Tour 12 PJ tour starts under

His belt Doug gim has these kind of flashes of Brilliance so he’s going to get to play and he’s been playing pretty well although you know that T8 Mexico comes against a whole bunch of nobodies that’s relative to the guys that were playing this week at at Saw Grass Tom

Hogi has been straddling being on the elite level at times Andrew Novak is just starting to kind of break out as a player this could be the start of a change in who he is or it could just be a short-term run and you kind of have to

Make that determination for yourself but I I think the history of this tournament especially in the last 5 years has taught us that you got to be a really good player to win this tournament you got to be a quality long-term player it doesn’t mean you can’t have a freak

Occurrence it doesn’t mean in a season of freak occurrences not another will continue but I think in a tournament like this tournament like a major championship you tend to air toward the long-term view but then again you look at a Windam Clark who won the US Open

Was maybe trending in that direction but you know Charlotte really did it for him being able to break through made him believe he could win he wound up taking on a guy in the final day in Ricky Fowler that really was not prepared for that situation to try to win a

Major you have Rory marroy who hasn’t won a major in a decade probably just pushing too hard at this point so there are a lot of kind of moving pieces to this so there’s a reason there’s that that argument there is a compelling reason to think about betting live

Particularly kind of midday Saturday just see where things are just see where the tournament is maybe mid-afternoon not midday get the the leaders through the front nine and then make some choices make some Wagers there doesn’t tend to be a lot of players who come from way behind in this tournament we’ve

Had a bunch of those types of comebacks this year but that doesn’t tend to happen and you you kind of have to be somewhere within probably four the lead before Sunday so if you’re thinking about that for a Sunday okay you’re going to have to be fairly close you

You’re not just going to storm from 678 behind and win this thing unless the weather gets out of control and from what I can tell it’s going to be pretty awesome down there so it should be pretty good scoring conditions it depends on what they do in terms of the

Firmness of the golf course I don’t think they can make it super firm like they used to be able to do in May but they could still make it pretty firm we’ll see what happens there hopefully this Today’s Show is helpful can I get you in the right track right frame of

Mind tomorrow we’ll come back we’ll talk about some derivative plays a little bit and fill in with a Wednesday show that maybe we typically wouldn’t do but I think it be helpful as we’re getting ready for the start of the players reminder join go Newsnet for $40 a year

Golfnet.com you can go ahead and do that today or you can sign up for $10 the week if you want to try it out that’s up to you too have fun we’ll be back with another show tomorrow thanks so much for being a part of it with us you get a

Hold of me at Ryan at the golf news.com on Twitter threads X Instagram and blue sky Ryan baly and I’m on Facebook and YouTube at Ryan baly golf golf news Nets on all of the services of golf newset we’ll be back tomorrow have a good one everybody