Golfbet Roundtable | Picks for THE PLAYERS, How to bet Scheffler

The Golfbet team is on-site at TPC Sawgrass diving into their picks for THE PLAYERS and also has advice for how to bet on Scottie Scheffler.

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The PGA TOUR continues on the West Coast this week for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines Golf Club. For the third-straight year, this event will be played from Wednesday through Saturday. Max Homa returns this week to defend his title. Alongside winning the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa in November, Homa has not finished worse than T21 since missing the cut at the Travelers Championship last June. Xander Schauffele will also be in California this week. He’s making his ninth start in San Diego where his best finish was T2, five shots off the winner in 2021. The American claimed T10 at The Sentry and T3 last week at The American Express to start the new season. Australian Min Woo Lee will also be in California this week after closing out 2023 winning twice in his last five events worldwide, including victories in Macau and Australia. He’ll be looking to improve on the T21 he managed last week at The American Express. Others to look out for are Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay and Sungjae Im.

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I argue that Scotty sheff is not a quote unquote winner I’m not convinced he is in the echelon of some of the great Killers out there Scotty Sheffer comes to the PLAYERS Championship defending his title but we’d be remissed if we didn’t address Benny bets in what he

Said last week about Scotty sheffler queue up the one shot Benny monologue time all right Scotty I got to say I’m sorry mate I’m sorry I’m sorry I’m sorry I said you were in a closer I said said you didn’t have a Killer Instinct I said

You only win by paper cuts getting out in front and killing the field but I sat there and watched you fall five behind on Friday down there at API I was peacocking around the place you should have seen me I was like I told you he’s

Going to fold again and then you’ve come back like an absolute Champion you’ve destroyed everyone on Sunday you are a killer mate well done and you come here now as the defending champion and very short price favorite can anyone beat him boys not if he’s putting like he did on

Sunday uh if if he is leading the field in stros game putting he’s going to uh collect a lot of Hardware we’ve talked for weeks and weeks about Scotty sheffler and the notion of of what does he have to do on the greens and it’s he

Doesn’t have to lead the field he has to be maybe 40th or 50th on the greens and just not shoot himself out of it by missing three and four Footers man Ben he did that in a big way you’re not the only one here I will say I was also

Fading Sheffer until he could show that he was able to putt he did that on Sunday I will fade no more although Chris I’m not sure that I’m buying him at plus 550 such a short such a short price favorite for such a volatile course and a stack field excellent way

To start the round table all four of us in person here on the lawn at TPC sass Chris Bree will gray Ben everil and Matt deio Matt choing at the bit to tell Ben that he was dead wrong yeah I mean Ben he kind of knew it was coming you know

Scotty Sheffer is number one in the world and I would argue his putting turned around on Saturday he had a really bad front nine that back nine he started putting so we kind of knew it was coming in the final round we thought it was happening it happened and Scotty

Showed everyone why he’s number one in the world every kept saying if Scotty makes a few putts he will win but guess what he wasn’t making him he wasn’t making him as soon as he did he destroyed the field so that’s it comes down to that again historically over the

Last four years which is what I count because obviously we’ve moved back to March and we had one of those years really bad weather but you haven’t had to be awesome at putting you’ve just sort of had to be in the top 40 top 50

Putting he can do that here I’m like you though I don’t know about the plus 550 he’s off in the afternoon which would make me wait at least to right before he tees off you might get it out plus 600 plus 650 if someone goes low like I’m in

Wo Le in the morning we’ll see what happens but yeah maybe just hold until he’s about to start Scotty’s got one problem he has an afternoon tea time on Thursday and look some people want to make a big deal of this others want to say pump the brakes maybe not so much 15

Of the last 17 winners guys have been the early late tea time wave what does that mean it means you tea off early Thursday morning in late Friday afternoon will you think it’s a big deal yeah I mean listen I was here for those you know wins in 2013 in 2014 that buck

The trend when you see guys all of a sudden have a five or six shot lead before the other wave is starting on Friday 17 years is a pretty good sample size that that spans different weather that spans March versus may there’s a lot of different variables involved that

We’ve seen this trend play out so maybe there is something to be said for going out early post the number then see how the course plays out before you go out Friday afternoon uh not to go too far ahead Chris in the in the uh the show

Run here but I am concerned by how many of the players that we love from a statistical standpoint are in the late early wave that could be a problem maybe we were going to be rooting for the trend to go the other way because a lot

Of the players that are on our short list for team golf bet are going to be out later early we’ll have to see how you’re shaking your head Ben you don’t agree yeah I think it’s an anomaly honestly I I think it’s just one of those things especially since we have

We’ve changed back to March like I said earlier I don’t think it’s much of as much of a big deal uh look we’ve also got a really stacked afternoon which he might not have had in the last 3 or 4 years most of the big guns were g off

Early in the last few years this year we put them in the back I think that the quality of player might change the trend if we’re talking about a rookie or a guy hasn’t won a big event then maybe they’re coming out on Thursday afternoon feeling like they’re chasing a number

But I don’t think shefer Thomas these type of guys that are starting the afternoon are sitting there worried about oh there’s an eight under on the board oh there’s a six under on the board they’re just going out and playing their own game and I think they can Buck

The trend in that now if it’s a a rookie or someone who hasn’t played well before maybe they do try to chase that’s where they can get themselves in trouble around here you’re only one swing away from a double bog uh Peete D diabolical of course so yeah

That that’s where the trend got happen but I think the quality of player in the afternoon might buck that Trend although all the Aussies are in the morning I think Jason day Adam Scott Min Lee all in the morning good news all right I want to talk about another Trend that

That we might be looking to Buck and I’ll go to Matt as a team shuffler apologist here no defending Champion has been worth a hill of beans at this tournament going back to really the last 20 years Adam Scott T8 back in 2005 uh Ben you might know him but what is it

Matt about that Trend and and how does that pretend for what Scotty sheffler might do this week looking to defend the title coming off a win last week at bill but historically this is just a tournament where the defending champ always seems to struggle we’ve never had

A back-to-back winner yeah I mean I feel like every week this happens Scotty does something and then we see stats that only Tiger Woods has done or only someone else has done so that stat doesn’t really scare me this week I think it’s something that is notable but

It’s also something that we’re realizing Scotty Sheffer is one of his own he’s absolutely unique so it’s a stat that he can absolutely overcome and it wouldn’t scare me this week that he think he can go back to back spoiler alert let’s get to our picks Matt start on the hot seat

Here long shot for you at the Players Championship this week long shot I’m going to go with seah sah theala and the main reason I’m going with seah not only because he’s been playing well this crowd is going to be 100% behind him and it’s kind of crazy to think about when

We have all these big names on tour sahit the gala always has the crowds with him so if he’s there on Saturday even early Sunday late Sunday hopefully there’s going to be a ton of people supporting him that’s going to push him along Scotty’s not your winner he’s your

Top 10 minus money that’s fine boo boo flashing on screen there for a minute you can’t suggest a plus 5600 outright pre-tournament it’s just one of those things it’s the cardinal sin you absolutely should not take someone that low of odds pre- tournament because it’s Golf and so much can happen but Scotty

Can of course win this your hot hand everybody’s talking about Justin Thomas why is he your winner Justin Thomas is one of those guys that I think is very very very close and what we saw at Bay Hill he started to make a run on Sunday and

Then he blew up the back nine I think that’s going to eat at him and we have all this conversation about Scotty and Rory being at the top of the tour JT wants to be at the top of the tour he wants to be that guy that we’re all

Talking about so a fueled up JT why would I not take him all right I’m going to go jump in here because I really do like Justin Thomas as well I know we’ll probably have a different graphic for an outright winner but I’ve got Thomas in

The expert picks I have to agree with MD on that one I think JT’s primed he sort of showed some things and I know he had a late fade at API but that’s that’s sort of the Thomas way when he can’t win sort of might might let it go a little

Bit so I wouldn’t read too much into those last few holes at Bay Hill what I will say is he’s one here before he’s in the top 10 in Strokes game Tera green which is a huge Factor this week and he’s good at par five scoring and hits

It plenty long although he’s come back to the field a little bit in length over the last few years so JT is good I also like some sneaky will zalatoris another guy who was very good last week until he wasn’t was right up there finished second at the Genesis Invitational which

Is a big deal he’s still coming off the injury but I think he’s shaking that off and if you just take his stats from those two last Signature Events he’s been in he is way up there in everything that matters this is the type of course

That suits him he’s a ball Striker he can get it done he only needs to putt half decent he’s been top 20 in putting in the last two Signature Events as I mentioned watch out for Willie Z I think he could do something all right I want

To go back to the Justin Thomas thing for a second because we just talked about Scotty shuffer that you can’t bet him at this outright price but you might want to look to him in a top finisher Market I go the other way with Justin

Thomas I agree with Ben and Matt I think that there’s a lot of upside for JT but I would rather get him in the outright Market in that plus 2200 range than go for a top five or a top 10 because if he’s in the mix he has a better than

Average chance of converting that into a victory as we saw back in 2021 as we’ve seen so many times in his career where he’s a killer he is a he’s a killer yeah so if he gets in the mix I think he has a good chance to convert as opposed to

Someone that’s going to hang out in that t7 T8 range there’s going to be some volatility with Justin Thomas he has you know a 75 in him as do every player in the field at this sort of course given the conditions but if he’s able to piece

It together if he figures out the driver a little bit better than he did over the weekend at Bay Hill JT could definitely be in the middle well you know who else has a 75 in him somebody who has not played well here Ben and you did a lot

Of research on your best bet yeah look best bet I like Tony fale of all people for a top 20 I think you get plus 180 or so plus 400 or more for top 10 if you want to get a bit more extravagant but every stat I looked up whether it was te

To Green approach off the te par five scoring Greens in regulation all the things that the last three big time winners have had here all of a sudden Tony fal’s name just kept popping up popping up popping up and like he’s also had a couple of good results on tour the

Last few weeks I think three out of his last four are top 20s last year he was t19 here maybe the trends turned around for Tony F now and I said I just can’t leave it alone given that on my metrics he was there everywhere so I like that

Can I go to my long shot you have to go to your he’s cooking he’s going to cook men Lee the Aussie is another great pick there at plus 5,000 just sneaks into the long shot range Jason day there as well Adam Scott not far behind the three

Aussies obviously this is an Australian Paradise here Steve elkington Adam Scott Jason day the guys have all won here they all do really well um it kind of feels like a home course for them when it gets a little harder and faster and minwoo he was the only guy that really

Took it to Sheffer last year in the final round he sort of creeped up on him he was there the crowd was actually him which was amazing to see that the Australian got the crowd cuz sheff has a bit down downplayed things a bit not as exciting they got right behind mwo that

Got him a little spooked he made a few mistakes faded a little he’s grown in the last 12 months I think he loves the crowd he feeds off that energy minwoo is a great great great long shot especially with an early tea time Public Service Announcement Ben took the Aussies also

No shocker you didn’t take any of them your long shot uh yeah so my long shot again is fitting the M of Ben of just sneaking in there at that plus 5,000 range but Brian Haron is a player that played well at this course before he had

The claric Jug sitting on his his nightstand now he comes in as a different player in stature and and a different player in perception in the field I think he’s still primed for a really big week only four players have made the cut every year since the move

To march in 2019 Justin Thomas is one of them Brian Harmon is another in addition to the course record holder Tom hogi and Denny McCarthy I think Brian Harmon’s game fits this course to a te he’s coming off of some momentum at Bay Hill after some strong play last week and I

Really think that at plus 5,000 we could see him in that 1020 range by the time you get to the weekend you’re going to get the award for most interesting best bet because you had to go really deep in the archives on the outports to find

This one uh we’re in March so it’s it’s you know hoop season and an old adage a friend of mine Alan Robinson at Golf Channel always used to say is that Ball State tickets cash the same as Notre Dame you can just go in you can find Value wherever they are winners are

Winners I think we’ve got a winner this week in Eric Van royan plus one 30 top South African that is a three-way Market with Garrick higo and Christian bazen Hout I really think that Van Roy and EVR is in a good position to play well this

Week he has come up and and really leveled up his game since that win last year in Mexico has started off really strong in the spring on the PGA tour in a three-man market I’m getting plus money Chris I think that’s a winner who’s one guy that we haven’t talked

About yet that you can guess is his winner that everybody’s talking about though everybody hii matama winner there you go you’re unofficial you’re unofficial 2020 players champion shot of 63 before the world pause but listen Hideki we saw what he did Sunday at Riviera shooting at 62 to win a loaded

Field in a signature event at the Genesis Invitational he has played well here for a really good run five out of the last top eight have gone for top 25s including three top eight finishes and he he tends to win in spurts when he gets one he usually adds another one in

Quick succession wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Hideki in that you’re getting so many players in the 20 25 30 to1 range that you’re used to seeing at maybe 10 or 15 to1 at some similar fields that just shows how deep this field is how unpredictable the golf

Course is and I think there are a lot of candidates in that 20 to 30 to1 window that you could grab a ticket on Wednesday and feel really good about it come Saturday yeah I mean we love we love shefer obviously he’s a great player but is he five times better

Player than these guys that’s that’s the key we’re talking odds here you’re getting much better value elsewhere yes Scotty Sheffer could win this wire to wire but you’re not getting the value because of what can go wrong Hideki has been in great form I’ve got him in my

Place market I think it’s a great cor will I think he’s a good really good CH now if you’re looking at Scotty though and you do want value you’re asking all these people everybody wants Scotty right how do you bet Scotty this week first round later and see what happens

For me would you take him negative money like you would have to in a top 10 you would have to I say wait I say wait I say wait I say wait for a live bet we people forget you can live bet the PGA Tour out there you can live bet it so

Wait and see what happens with such a short price maybe Scotty’s five back after day one and all of a sudden he’s 10 11 well look let’s just look at last week he was he had a longer price on Friday entering the second round at Bay Hill then he did pre-tournament he went

From plus 750 out to plus 800 he was trailing by four it went even higher than that in the live markets before we got around to Saturday he’s got a share the lead and he’s down to plus and if he does go out and go lights out in the

Morning and we miss it well that happens sometimes then you start looking at the other cool fun markets we’re going to have this week uh I don’t want to get ahead of us but we’ve got some pretty good ones right Chris we got the hole in

One on 17 coming up it’ll be on our social media all week long before my picks here I need a matd splinters and Benny bets debate here uh Max hom killer or not a killer Max hom is absolutely a killer and if you debate that I’m going

To be shocked and I don’t think you will debate that because you’ve learned your lesson last time with Scotty winner Ben I I like Max Homer this week I actually think if he’s going to win something big before a major might be a players he he does factor into to consideration here

This week he has not done anything in major championships to this point in fact has been pretty bad in major championships to this point so to take the next level level level up he’s going to have to perform on the big stage this is a good spot to start he’s been in the

Top 15 the last few years here so he could be one to watch this I think that’s something that just motivates him even more though he knows that he was bad in Majors he knows that he’s on the rise and he’s been playing better golf

The last year so he knows he needs to perform in the majors big events players I think that’s something that he’s going to motivate and push him forward he talks about it and he said but he said he’s he’s talked about it too much he’s internalized it too much it’s made it’s

It’s been a problem for him he’s struggled with that he’s struggled with the intensity change and he struggled with trying too hard once he figures that out once he can just be normal Max like he is probably you know what if you were doing a Monday afternoon Skins game

With your mates you would want no one else but a Max Hom OR even though at the the match he wasn’t that good I think with his buddies he’d be the he’d be the perfect he going to figure it out sooner than later at some point we’ll see at

Some point yeah well I would listen I would just like it noted that I had maxom as my top pick last week at Bay Hill everyone here just raised an eyebrow and said what are we sure about that he finished T8 played pretty well didn’t contend but now all of a sudden

Max H is a killer Max’s outright pick so I was ahead of the curve and now he’ll cash tickets for someone else but just before we go off that everybody was on a guy last week that missed the cut are we forgetting him because of that are we

Matt Fitzpatrick is Matt Fitzpatrick a chance here we’ve all gone off him even though we all had great reasons to be on him last week all of a sudden he’s no good Y what do we think is he your Sheffer late is that what you’re saying

I think he’s a great long shot as well I think he’s 66 or something to one look I know no English is one here right like they’ struggled You’ have to beat that but I think just to dismiss him because of one Mis cut when we’re also gung-ho

On him a week ago might be a little bit dangerous we’ll see I would also point out we’ve gone a long time talking about a lot of players there’s only one player within shouting distance of Scotty shuffler on the pre-tournament outright board we have not set his name Rory

Maroy boys what do we think about Rory nope not buying Rory this week I’m not buying it uh I really don’t have a good reason I just don’t think he’s going to win it this week and I think it’s just something that I feel and sometimes when

We Gamble and we do these bets you got to go with your heart and I just don’t see Rory winning it this week I’ll give you a reason I think he’s just got one too many foul balls in him right like so I think that that’s a problem when

You’re not hitting it as well and one bad swing as I said can end up in the water or in a really bad result here you’re going to have a few double Bogies can he recover from those if he has them I I beg to think that he can’t you know

There’re just going to be too many mistakes in his game for him to overcome especially if the ball Strikers out there like we’ve talked about Sheffer zalatoris Hideki Etc are on point that’s a lot of grand to mic up we’ve had way too much time talking if you want to see

My long shot my best bet go to our website expert picks you want to get to it okay while I flash Justin Rose on the screen here at plus 9,000 let me make that a chance for us to dive deep into The Strokes gain stats well and the fact

That Justin Thomas or Justin Rose is third uh on this board of everybody on this field Strokes gained per round but will there’s some interesting guys right around him too we haven’t talked about yet yeah for sure and again we went this yesterday in the key stats and that was

A name that popped you’re not really thinking about Justin Rose around here at TPC sress he mentioned Max H Tom hogi the course record holder for sure after the 62 last year in round three so he’s someone that’s going to be in the mix but but talk me through Jay Rose here

Chris what’s your what are your thoughts I mean it’s the fact that Justin Rose you write him off right I mean he’s he’s older on tour compar I mean compare him to everybody else he’s older here right you write him off but look what he’s done the last handful of years of course

He plays well at Pebble Beach let’s throw out Pebble Beach but even then he contends randomly he hasn’t played bad this year guys he plays well here in general take him why not plus 9,000 that’s my long shot and then Best Bets I mean you could go literally anywhere in

The world on this I went hii we don’t got to talk more on hii because he doesn’t need to win I mean who here does not think that Hideki Matsuyama will not be talked about at some point on Sunday yeah he’ll be in I agree absolutely yeah we all kiss of death

Sorry by hii is saying yeah too much fun here all four of us getting together it is a serious treat very rare Chris Bree will will gry Ben everil and Matt dveo here on the round table for golf