Pat Mayo and Geoff Fienberg preview the course and run through the odds while making their 2024 Players Championship Picks, bets, and One and Done selections. Tim Andercust joins to make his three Players Picks too.
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
6:16 CUST Picks
21:26 Custys Debate Annoucnemnt
25:14 THE PLAYERS FIELD
27:02 Scheffler
29:57 Top Odds
50:06 50-100
58:15 Aberg
1:04:02 Upside Players
1:07:22 100+
1:19:55 Quick Picks
1:22:25 One and Done
1:23:49 Wyndham Clark as a Villain
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I I I do think that we should rename the Quick Pick segment at the end of every episode that we do to the wheel of losers I really like that yeah I may we got a good graphic where it’s just like put fleetwood’s face on it and cam Young’s face on it
And just my total wheel of losers and it spins and it spins and we’ll see where it lands experience Batman experience Batman Experience Batman experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy use code Mayo at Underdog fantasy right now to get yourself a match deposit of up to $100 if you do that then you can take the survey or if you have an underdog account already you can take
The survey down in the description right now giving away $5,000 in Underdog credits for The Players Championship five winners $11,000 each so survey takes 15 seconds I would recommend doing it and once you got the money in you can play in the pat Mayo Experience open the major season
Best ball draft you can find that underd drafts on Underdog right now it’s 75% full already and it starts at the master so let’s get this one filled up maybe we can get some more I’m going be doing some live streams this week with you you
Good people on Underdog to draft some of these teams Jeff fineberg on location in Florida right now you’ve been doing some drafts haven’t you okay so full disclosure Pat I haven’t even done a draft yet all I do is play and I look and I hit to enter and then I leave but
I I’m like I feel like someone from a different side of the world who like just saw snow or the ocean for the first time being someone that lives in Ontario I’ve seen all the hype about Underdog I live on the internet but I just let it like glow o like just fly
Over my head because cuz I can’t play Underdog and it kind of makes me jealous but I got to Florida I signed up used the promo code Mayo I made my deposit and I I feel like I’m staring at the ocean for the first time a full season
Majors draft I I will max out it’s say six entry Max it’s 75% full it’s going to be whatever clip I am for six of them so in the next like couple days I will be loading up I am so fired up I am I don’t know I’m so excited about
This product and actually getting to play this product unrelated to to the sponsorship which is super exciting here and our new partner but I I I’m fired up you’re going to see me in there a lot maybe I’ll put out some tweet say I’m going into draft but I haven’t even
Drafted yet like I’m too nervous but I’m so excited yeah I wrote up a you can bookmark it if you go to my Twitter page right now I have a list of all of the play players and which majors that they’re actually that’s really important for one of these drafts where you know
It’s just the majors that count so drafting guys that are already in at least three preferably all four majors is probably going to be one of the strategies that you want so you can check that out at the pme on the X machine additionally we’ve added some
New filters to Fantasy National you can now search by state and isolate that so Jeff you’re in Florida you can click the Florida Tab and all of that’s in my newsletter already in the first look plus we added in each of the majors you can isolate by Major click all of the
Majors whatever it is that you want to do use the season long planner at the top tab along with it and this is the week to get in on fantasy National by the way if you’ve been on the fence fantasy national.com Mayo get you 20% off get the monthly membership this week
Because with the way that the scheduling works out it goes like dayto day so the 12th to the 12th which means you get the players all the way through the Masters so you’re going to want it for the Masters you’re going to want it for the
Players then you get all the fun stuff in between the Texas stuff the Valspar so go do that right now fantasy national.com but it’s not just the two of us because although it is not a major it is a big event a tournament I’ve really come around on over the past few
Years despite having very little success at the Players Championship in the outright betting card and daily fantasy whatever it is I still just like to fire at this one I love to watch it and someone who used to hold the opinion that I have I’m curious to see where he
Lands now it is none other making his return to the show Tim andus Tim andus that is not my name so you digging the players this time around no I still think a gimmicky course with a weaker field than it’s ever been doesn’t particularly make me feel like it’s the fifth major but
That’s me they’ve really gotten away from the fifth major talk I think once the live guys left there’s like well we can’t even like pretend that this it used to be the best field in golf with the invites that they had because there was no like Scrubs at the bottom where
You have that at all of the majors in terms of amers or the old guys whatever it might be but I haven’t heard fifth major said since Liv was started I believe it it’s just I don’t know I mean I understand it’s a big tournament the the course has some very
Memorable holes uh you know other than I think the ninth hole all the power fives are very eable like there’s lots of scoring here but uh you know it’s just a normal Tour event to me even though I know the purse is Big okay Jeff how do you feel about the PLAYERS Championship
Again uh a place where we haven’t had the most success you’ve had more success than me Pat I hit I hit Martin K I hit him 10 years ago it’s the last time I went asent on this back to back winners at this place um I don’t know it’s always kind of felt
A bit of a a gimmick situation I you know I I guess they’re not trying to treat us like idiots by playing up the fifth major thing since Liv has been gone as much as I I’m excited to be in the underdog World here in Florida Pat I
Feel naked like I don’t have my books I can’t do anything but stare at other people’s tweets saying they’re making bets that might work out better for you it it certainly could I can’t get worse put it that way so Tim we bring you on to give your three picks and you’re a
Lifetime loser in your three picks then all of a sudden one great pick last year reverses everything you got like six years of free roll now with all of your picks and you’re still going to be at money so let’s hear the picks well I mean it just confirmed that
I am indeed the the Big Game Hunter and that name sort of came from the fact that I hit this bag to back this exact tournament so you know it’s it’s something I feel good about I’m good at picking players at this tournament even though I don’t particularly love it uh
Number three and actually I think he’s got a real shot to win while I’m picking him uh is Lucas Glover I’ll explain why Lucas Glover uh you know won twice last year both the tournaments he won putted on Bermuda grass he’s a good Bermuda player he only played this tournament
Well one time and he played it well after he won a major so even though he didn’t win a major last year he won back-to-back tournaments including one of the playoff events and even though he hasn’t had a fantastic season he only missed the cut once all year on tour um
I think he’s actually very well primed for this course to play well and uh so I’m picking him as my number three he the super long odds but I actually think he’s got a real chance here I I actually don’t hate that pick whatsoever because obviously he won the Windam Championship
The Windam is one of the ones that I go look at of note this year uh because it’s in March and with the way that the grass type is going this is actually no longer considered a Bermuda grass course Tim it is a POA course because the
Bermuda has not quite come in yet at this time of year so officially the players and Valspar have been changed from Bermuda grass to POA I did not know that when I did my research uh yesterday and this morning uh before you know I I realized oh dear
Thought it was aun course that’s interesting okay yeah I I noticed it when I says it on the on the page sure I went and looked up the the course sheet uh that the groundskeepers put out for every single tournament and that was the first thing that stood out to me I was
Like huh so these are more like the they’re like a faster or maybe not even faster but they’re much like the greens in Phoenix and at the American Express uh which they have been it’s just they weren’t classified that way okay number two fair enough so then
Number number two I am going to take uh just I’m playing the hot hand here and I’m gonna take Jake nap not for no particular reason other than he’s playing playing good golf and I’m just gonna ride the hot hand yeah you were when I played uh poker with you
On the weekend uh you you were very mad that this guy was nobody well he is I mean I guess perfect for this tournament uh this year then even though historically you know if you look at the last five years Rory Hideki Justin cam Smith and Sheffer like it’s
Superstars that win this tournament recently but uh I don’t know I get a feeling that’s not going to happen this year because it’s really not on par with other than last week it’s really not on par with what’s been happening this season so nap is my second pick so for
Reference Jeff just people if they’re listening for the first time and don’t know a ton about the PLAYERS Championship should be aware Hideki did not win the PLAYERS Championship um he didn’t even play in a tournament that completed one round in 2020 before it was cancelled due to covid just so
People know that although Tim will claim that as a winner I think that’s G to be his top pick it would makees sense I’m curious Tim who is your top pick uh zot taes oh [ __ ] I thought enough from him last week I watched quite a bit of the golf yesterday for
Whatever reason I don’t know because the because of dumb daylight savings I didn’t feel like doing much in the afternoon so I just lounged about and watched a ton of the coverage um I like Luke Donald uh that was perhaps the best part of the coverage uh yeah zator
Looked has looked good and so I think he’s back to form and it’s a weird it’s I find probably of all the tournaments and you guys speak to this better than me it seems like the most impossible tournament to pick because of the just the the amount of water and sand and
Weirdness and of course last couple of years weather that’s been affecting this place it seems like just a complete Dart throw so just pick guys that are decent and in hope that are playing well yeah I it’s funny because you kind of hit on it like since this tournament has moved to
March it has been a superstar tournament Rory Thomas cam Smith and then Scotty Sheffer a year ago and the only real common denominator between all of those players is that they dominated an approach the week that they won and they had been having amazing approach play coming into the tournament additionally
They had great form coming into the tournament and they’re you know they were ranked inside like the top 20 in the world coming in they were not necessarily the favorite although Sheffer was a year ago they were one of the favorites into the tournament they also this is from Cut maker Jeff on
Twitter I didn’t realize this uh the I’m sorry it wasn’t C maker it was golf bet caddy at golf bet caddy uh Scotty last year was added to the list since 2007 uh the winners of The Players Championship have started in the morning on Thursday and played in the afternoon on Friday at
Least where their normal tea times would go because obviously cam Smith was a part of that draw but he didn’t end up playing his second round like Sunday or something the year he won but tiger and kimer in 2013 2014 were the only ones to start in the afternoon on Thursday
I don’t know why okay so I guess the draw for whatever reason is pretty consequential here yeah and I love the winners go ahead like right before it became Superstars like who were Webb and Rick like who are those woo oh yeah sewo so sewo is sort of like the outlier in all
Of this and like he I mean he had won the Windom Championship the year before he had had like a bunch of WDS previously to that I covered a lot of this in the research show up on Mayo media Network on the experience audio feed right now just but just looking at
Those winners yeah web sewo and then day won in 2016 but that’s when day was the number one player in the world that was year that Ken Duke shot like eight under on Saturday when everyone else was like 80 on those glass screens then day ended up winning in the
End I think Chapel played really well that year until he got to I don’t know like one of the holes and made like 12 or something and that was the end of him yeah yeah chapel chapel won three tournaments in second place the Year Day dominated that’s right yeah every time
That day one Chapel ended up finishing in second now Chapel is gone he might be playing like maybe he played in Puerto Rico last week I have no idea but Tim your point is well taken that this tournament is high variance because of a lot of the water I also think that it’s
Super high variance as well because it gets rid of probably the one repeatable skill that tends to be the most important in golf when separating the very high-end players from everyone else and like why you see the same people at the US Open you over year tend to do
Really well is that being a great driver of the ball is obviously beneficial at Saw Grass but it’s not the most important thing at all like cam Smith won this tournament losing over five Strokes off the te like you just kind of have to avoid the water it doesn’t
Really matter how far you hit it yeah there’s also like no real Rhyme or Reason you’ve seen some great players like some highend players just have the most horrific track records here like look a guy like Harris English he’s one of the cleanest ball Strikers around he’s never made a cut
Here no but Carris Engler shot Seven under in 2020 that is true yeah maybe that’s maybe that’s maybe that’s why Co started because Harris English was going to make the cut they’re like we can’t have this you need to miss the cut at the Players every year pal world shut down take a
Hike no chain smokers concert for you but even to look at the course history of the players lead in form like I this is all again in the newsletter free to join down in the description right now you can go click on yesterday’s the full article will be coming out on Monday
Evening plus additional stuff throughout the course of the week but the lead in form like the last two players championships for the past winners like Scotty was 55th and miscut before he won last year cam Smith 17 and 56 Justin Thomas 35th and 11th Rory miscut and
35th web Simpson was 16th and 66th like course history means absolutely nothing here Tim it’s there are tournaments where it does matter and then there are tournaments where it doesn’t matter I would say that this is the one tournament on the calendar every year where course history literally means
Nothing do you have C courses and and and if it’s true that form doesn’t matter well then Rory’s got a real chance to win no I said that form does matter oh well then he doesn’t have much of a much of a chance then after his performance the last two pitiful
Performances the last two weeks well his performance in Honda was actually really good he just couldn’t make a putt and then oh yeah he played great at the he played great at the Cog and he uh really finished not winning great so if you don’t win you’re not so if you don’t if
You don’t win you’re not good is that is that your take on everything now when you’re when you’re Rory I don’t even think if Rory won this week I would really be all that impressed he Rory win I can really judge him by oh if Rory
Wins every Rory won this week it’d be like are you winning the Masters they wouldn’t even congratulate him on winning the Players that’s exactly what I would say he didn’t win The Masters he he won this tournament recently uh you know he won it five years ago the heck
Of a lot more recently than he’s won major Jesus supposed to be impressed so so people so Neeman can win three live tournaments and now he’s the greatest player in the world Rory would win the players like yeah inconsequential no but my point is that no one talked about Neiman being like
The greatest golfer in the world no one has put him on that pedestal no one essentially tried to make him the The Heir and successor to Tiger Woods so if Brewer’s gonna be in that rarified air maybe he needs to win a major more than
Once every decade well I I I mean his his on a Rory week his his life average is more than a major decade by the way you know what that is absolutely true but I stand here saying that I’m not I’ve not been in particularly impressed by his performance this season
No you you’ll be right do you think he does this week I I mean misses the cut or something like that I I can see him winning I can see him missing the cut he he could very well play well this week it wouldn’t shock me because he’s won
This tournament before you he’s a marvelous golfer but like you know he hasn’t been that impressive and he’s he’s to the point in his career where he’s won everything so why would I be impressed when he wins something he’s already won unless it’s a major championship yeah I mean like we did
This last week P like you can’t Rory’s there’s nothing Rory can do that will change people’s opinion of him there’s a there’s no tournaments he can win anymore yeah if he doesn’t he has to win a green jacket yeah yeah if he if he doesn’t win The Masters he sucks is
Apparently the The Narrative on he major no no if he Le any major he’ll get his full credit uh you talked about comp courses comp courses the main ones to look at uh there’s just been such a high correlation with the Windom Championship especially for like the Lesser known
Guys who have won Players Championship and when I mean like lesser known I mean not the number one in the world or top five in the world coming in like web sewo Stenson all those guys have won the Windom they’ve all won the PLAYERS Championship Davis Love the third he’s
Won both there was one other one Sergio is the other one who’s won the Players championship and won the Windom Championship so I just thought that was very interesting I think that Phoenix is a weird Crossover with this course as well we’ve seen a lot and it’s probably
Especially now in March because of the green types that they’re so similar that guys that putt well in Phoenix probably tend to putt well at the Players Championship as well and then you have all the Pete die course the national too yeah but I mean Augusta has a comp
Course well yeah but Augusta is a tough comp course because great players just play well at Augusta so if you have great players winning at any course you’re like oh Augusta is a comp because great players win like I don’t know like this course has nothing in common with Augustin Ash
Zero that’s true that’s true so if you say like yeah Scott Scotty sheffer’s won both it’s like okay Scotty sheffler wins in a lot of places well thinking more like the Adam SCS and the you know the cam Smith yeah I mean cam Smith there’s a lot of crossover winners because of just
The N like it’s a big event guys and Sergio Sergio fair enough yeah I I think it’s more relevant to look at I I I would think about just even when we do the Sony Open and we do Heritage like this course and all the Pete die courses in
General are just more in common with this one but the problem with a lot of the Pete die courses although we’ve seen Heritage as a signature event and River Highlands as a signature event the past few seasons so we have seen some of the bigger players play there that
Historically those were just weaker Fields so it was very interesting to me to see that some of these guys who would go and win at these courses in some of the weaker fields that would actually translate over to Saw Grass which I found interesting because I mean for all
That and this is the this is the best part of everything and I briefly mentioned this last week but Tim I want to get your thoughts on it because you love the Signature Events you hate that there’s a cut in a signature event but if the players is the PGA Tour Flagship
Event which it still is this is what they point to it has the highest purse it’s the most Glory that the PGA Tour can give out as a part of their brand cuz they don’t run the major championships this is it for them that it’s still a full field of 144 players
With a cutline yet the other tournaments can’t do that so doesn’t that just inherently make them lesser based on the PGA tour rules yeah yep sure does is they are sort of speaking from both sides when they do this I mean I and and the solution is obviously to make this a
Limited event too I really do believe that like that’s where we’re going that’s the future for that isn’t a major so let’s just do it now yeah I mean I I want as many people in the field as possible but for these Signature Events Jeff I I think the solution is there’s a
Happy medium just have a 100 player field and that way it always gets in it’s still a limited field and then you can cut half the people out yeah I mean I think the best thing the PGA could do but I’m probably just speaking as a hardcore fan not a a
Casual because ultimate meritocracy probably doesn’t work for the PGA where good players can just slip out because of injury or because of a bad run you know players that people sponsors have invested money in players that the tour has put up on a pedestal uh players that have name recognition so the fans
Probably always want them around but I would go with insane levels of meritocracy of relegation and I’d make everything as hard as possible and then the PGA could save itself Windam Clark agrees with you yeah to a certain extent it seems like he does but I believe the one thing
The PGA has is the meritocracy that Liv doesn’t so they should lean into that as hard as ever as hard as ever well Tim before we get out of here uh we’re going to record a new cuss Corner pretty soon but the debate how you doing for next Thursday evening 8:00 pm Eastern
Can make that work you can make that work Jeff can you make that work you know it’s it’s on the schedule it is on the schedule but the fact that he that he has not called me to concede this thing yet is just truly an indictment it’s just an indictment on
Everything I’m curious to see what he’s got in his bag of tricks that can stick on the wall so voting will remain open for a few days after the debate so if you want to vote in the cies you can do that down in the description right now
Cut Tim this is your chance uh if you feel like you’re behind which I don’t know that you are or not because a lot of the votes were cast very early those mailin ballots from January might be your Saving Grace in this election season but do do you have any tricks waiting for
Jeff even if I did I wouldn’t say in this instance all I can say is that you know I expect a spirited debate and I I hope that my opponent is ready I don’t tend to exploit my opponent’s Youth and inexperience for my own game so so to re
To recap to recap your three picks that was good Jeff no it wasn’t Lucas Glover Jake knap and Will zures are your three selections for The Players Championship yep and the fact that Jeff is laughing at them makes me feel good because he laughed at my picks at the LA
Country Club and who was laughing at the end not me let’s you you were laughing at the end well not in the sense of like deris I was happy I was laughing I was yeah you made like a 100 to one guy your gold pick here you’ve made a a guy who I
Really like who will zator is your gold pick so it doesn’t bring up that I’m not mocking not nearly like I did that um I give you all the credit in the world keep coasting on it right I intend to all right so cussies debate next Thursday live on Mayo media
Network at 8pm. Eastern Time tune in to that I’ll get you out of here so I want to thank you for being on the line Tim and cust Tim andercust more players picks coming in a second but I do want to tell you and remind you to go to
Underdog fantasy right now download the app go to the website and use code Mayo to get a firsttime deposit match of up to $100 there’s pick them there are drafts and if you’re into the drafting part go to drafts go under PGA and play in the pat Mayo open it’s almost full so
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$50,000 to first place in major season right now and you can pile up some cash and increase your bank Ro play and pick them all week every day at the Players Championship or whatever sport you want at Underdog fantasy right now code Mayo let’s get it done all right let’s get to
The betting board players championship try to pick a winner from this I’m trying to try to do it from my gut I’ve done my research and then I have the guys that I really want to get to special announcement though Jeff I should probably let I mean you know and
Paul knows but the viewers need to know you and I will be in Vegas for Master’s weekend at the Circ we’re going to go to the stadium swim be broadcasting live from there so if you are in Vegas you can come hang with Jeff and I especially
On the Saturday I think we’re going to do a watch party for the third round of the Masters that’s pretty exciting I am I’m very excited for that so if you’re down in Vegas come by hit us up we’ll be doing shows uh multiple shows there throughout the week and the
Weekend so I’m fired up yeah we’ll be going live uh from the circus swim doing the post round Recaps we’ll be doing a live chat on the Wednesday evening the the penultimate night before the Masters commences the after round four recap we probably even do the Heritage show that
Morning before we take off and get back so it’s going to be a lot of fun if you’re around Vegas over Masters weekend we’ll be there Wednesday through Sunday at the circus swim so come out and hang with us on that one all right gut feeling Jeff right away who who do you
Want to bet for the players before we get into the actual odds for anything I’m a mark Scotty Sheffer except I keep putting the digits into the machine and I like the number I need to bet to be satisfied with what I’m going to win like then it’s like do I really
Want to lose that money on one guy but I’m what sort of happened at the I know the last almost the whole weekend for the most part but you know the end of Saturday and and his run into to to yesterday was just remarkable he left Shane Lowry
Speechless you’ve never seen Shane Lowry speechless in your entire life when asked to describe what he just witnessed I would tend to agree agree with you with Scotty there are some things working against him there’s never been a back-to-back champion at Saw Grass it’s of course that’s super high variance and
Obviously he has the proper game to negate a lot of that variance because you know he’s not hitting the ball in the water but even going back and watching last year in his win which was just a dominating performance and dude couldn’t putt until Sunday and then he
Started making everything but he chipped in like three times like a lot of luck went Scotty’s way last year and he just kind of he was there he wasn’t putting well but the chipping kind of made up for that and then on Sunday he was able
To close the door but I don’t want to sit here and pretend that you know he puted well for one tournament then all of a sudden his putting is fixed that’s not how this works correct it is not how it works but a week ago you’re like man why is Scotty
So stubborn like it’s making gains for will zuris he’s got way too much pride just use a broomstick let’s go buddy just to had to take Rory’s advice hit up the spider boom goes the dynamite so yeah you’re right all those putts that that I mean that that string of one putts um
You know maybe he’s starts missing the four-footers again I I don’t know but at this moment it’s some you know usually I have bets I don’t bets Scotty the top I I’m a mess I’m a mess well here’s what and let’s get to the odds board because what Scotty’s
Performance last week has done unless he wins again and then you know I’m screwed because I’m not going to bet Scotty Sheffer it was his first one in a year let’s not forget that part too and he probably should have won 13 of those tournaments and won zero of them because
Of the putting so if the putting REM is going to win like that’s about as easy of a cap that you can do so if you just wanted to take all the money you were invest in the players and bet on Scotty sheffler and that’s your one bet listen
I got no problem with that I I I think that actually makes a ton of sense if that’s the route you want to go obviously that’s not the route that I want to go but again I always lose at this tournament every single year but because he had such a dominating
Performance because he’s a defending champion because he is the best player in the field coming in it has really opened up some decent odds for everyone else starting with Rory who I’m also not going to bet but he’s down as far as 14 to1 you can get him boost up to 15 to1
If you really wanted to when was the last time we saw Rory hanging this big of a number in a tournament like this I don’t remember that’s a great point my eyes went to Rory at that inflated number and unlike Tim I actually think his struggles are kind of been overrated
At a place like Bay Hill you can get into a bad spot and you can crumble we saw it happen to lots of guys uh that’s the whole there’s a huge bump on almost everyone in the betting board because of Scotty I don’t have the guts to do it at
The top it’s just not what I do I have too much fun trying to put like put together a wheel of losers it’s almost the most enjoyable part I have because once the tournament starts just goes to the goes to [ __ ] my God I feel like I’m
Gonna win these bets and then you know over the course of the tournament I don’t I have the guts to that Scotty truth be told that it’s just not in me it’s just not in like I don’t it’s just not how I do it I I I do think that we
Should rename the Quick Pick segment at the end of every episode that we do to the wheel of losers I really like that yeah I Mayan we get a good graphic where it’s just like put fleetwood’s face on it and K Young’s face on it and
Just my total wheel of losers and it spins and it spins we’ll see where it lands and maybe one week Pat I you know like a knocking the show we we run the operation it’s a uh it’s a compact group but yeah if this was like a network I’d
Be like literally spin a wheel of losers I will pick who the wheel lands on like it’s good enough for me at this point and that’s a great way too to save you money so you don’t just bet Fleetwood Tony cam young and all of the guys that
You bet all at once it would just limit you to having one of them per week it’s just great savings for you absolutely and on that note like Tommy made a 10 and now he’s 50 to1 in Florida so I don’t know how I can bet
Scotty sheffler cuz I got losers to bet I think I I see I’m in exactly the same boat so I’ve have jumped on some early numbers but I’m not tied to anything because I as I mentioned to cus that I want to see what the te- sheet is I want
To keep track of the weather and I bet them all out a site where I can cash them out and I do think that I got I mean one guy most definitely did not get the best number on because the book that I use did not open up betting until
Monday morning I know that like FanDuel and DraftKings and all those places posted uh sometime on on Sunday but I don’t have access to those so I couldn’t go bet them and by the time it got to me some of the guys that I want to bet and
I think everyone else did want to bet at the same time had been slashed mightily like someone like Brian Herman uh I got him at I think 75 to1 or 80 to1 he opened like I saw ion bet him on FanDuel on Sunday at like 150 to one or
Something like that like I would have much preferred double the number on Brian Haron but I know that number is going to continue to shrink as it goes down so the very top of the board right now so you got Scotty at 5 to one 5 a
Half to one Rory at 14 to1 and then it’s immediately into the 20s Thomas Xander Klay havland zalatoris Hideki and then depending on where you look uh you could have ludvig hom Burns morawa spe wiam Clark Shane Lowry all in that mix those are the favorites at this tournament so
The first two bets that I put in because I think the numbers are going to actually I only put in one of the bets and I saw at 25 to1 so I bet it he was someone that I bet a few times this year and we think about recent form his form
Has been really good it’s just he hasn’t been able to putt and he hasn’t been able to close but Justin Thomas has won this before I like Justin Thomas a lot this week hard to throw any sort of stone at that it feels like everything is
Trending um the fact that you know a player of that ilk is only getting more comfortable like back in contention or near the tops of leaderboards which was something that didn’t really happen at all last year um so yeah I got no stones to throw in that I will joke though Pat
I sent out a tweet on on the weekend or maybe at the end of last week just said which which player which golfer would you most enjoy seeing never win again and it felt like it turned into a runoff between JT and Kling really and I think
JT maybe it’s in the moment I haven’t watched bull swing yet although my my mug was on it that uh I think the JT people in like his shot at Meo and he’s got a a reputation for being spoiled this has nothing to do with the betting
But uh yeah if people hate JT maybe this just keeps his number High I don’t know yeah so he’s down to like 22 to1 right now at 20 to1 in some spots but maybe that number inflates throughout the course of the week I just think he’s
Playing Great Golf right now uh and it’s obviously a course where driving means a little bit less approach means a little bit more can he find that Putter and that’s always been kind of the biggest thing with him like he made his runs over the weekend it seemed like every
Time that you tuned in for the first like front nine any day of the week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational Thomas was making a run and then just he kind of fell apart on the back nine almost every single day but it’s still a pretty good finish and we talk about form like
So far this season 12th 6th third 12th and one Mis cut I’d say that’s pretty good great form great form and I mean he could have really put the he had an opportunity to really put the pedal down before he went backwards yesterday because it looked like he got to his
Number and then he had about three or four like eight to 12 Footers and he couldn’t make them I’m not to say he ever could have gotten to Scotty but he could have really put like a hiccup in there um yeah I don’t see myself making that
Bet in that range I saw I I didn’t have access to it and by the time I woke up it was gone if I was at home I’d have hit that 28 to one on Philip Rivers this morning so goddamn hard on Victor I wouldn’t even have cared about the form
I wouldn’t have cared see and this touch that up there’s still 25s out there is a ceiling and it’d be that or willly Z or hii I think is where I might want to start yeah Hideki jumped out to me obviously Windam Clark jumped out to me
As well just with the way that he’s been playing and continues if we consider this an elevated event or a signature event he’s going to be there on the leaderboard at some point with a chance to win because that’s just what he does in these elevated events but the other
Ones that stuck out to me were Lowry and burns I think Lowry’s number is too short for just the way that he is unable to close in a lot of these situations but Al although it seems like he’s had a terrible run the past two weeks he has
Finished like third and fourth so let’s not Overlook that he has a top five at the players in the past he’s one of those guys though because of the putting sometimes and he’s puted pretty well the past two weeks so maybe he can play that forward that it feels like that might
Flip on him where burns the the one drawback on burns is that it feels like if he’s he’s going to get himself into contention in this tournament and then he’s going to put it in the water three times because that’s just what he’s been doing that’s fair but sort of everyone behind like
Those everyone behind behind Scotty I would I have would have that same worry about I mean that dead serious like they’ll get there but then they’ll get wet I like I like Burns a lot you mention Shane it’s the best Florida golfer we got except on Sundays and
That’s at 40 to1 that’s not something I’m going to bet into you would you would almost want to sign a lifetime contract to morawa at 35 to1 at this golf course too wouldn’t you I know but and this is the thing like my my priors going into this I mean I
Always just default morawa because this does feel like the course for him to win because it sets up perfectly for his game deadly accurate off the tea still one of the five best iron players in the world Kenny makes him putts that’s what it comes down to he was I mean if it
Wasn’t for Chad was it Chad Remy I think it was Chad Remy I’ll say Chad Remy was the first round it was Ry who was the first round leader last year here right I’m not gonna my fat I don’t want to vouch for that but Mor I had money on
Morawa and this I mean this happens with morawa all the time he’s he’s weird like kind of bizero Klay in this weird way too is that he has some like sparkling first rounds when I bet him to win outright right and then he just doesn’t do anything with it afterwards uh maybe
It wasn’t Remy I keep getting there’s like three guys I get Buckley Ry and someone else confused uh year over year maybe it yeah I think it was Ry and then he just melted on the weekend let’s see Ry yeah he opened with the 64 6475 6876
He ended up coming t27 because Eric Cole was kind of doing that Ben Griffin was kind of doing that Justin Su was another one who was just kind of like lingering around morawa ended up coming 13th year ago but again based on my priors of what
I want to look for he checks as we say all the boxes but I really do want to make a concerted effort after getting this tournament wrong so badly every single year and that the one thing that everything points to is recent form morawa doesn’t have it right
Now he does not and it is well no he won in Japan because I was gonna be like and that was in the swing season like he hasn’t done [ __ ] since the year started yeah no and I I thought he would be ready to go for for a big season I
Probably backed him at the sentury not that it matters but I’m one of those marks who like oh he wins in the swing season morow is ready to check his boxes for the year again um not happening not happening but yeah you see it across the board everybody everybody but it feels
Like Shane Lowry is taking a taking a jump in the lower half a big jump so to years point you said that Shane Lowry is the the best Florida golfer for the first three rounds I just use the new tab on fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself that 20% off the monthly
Membership takes you through the Masters as of this week so go do that right now who do you think are the top five Florida golfers over the past 24 rounds Scotty sheffler number two Shane Lowry number four this might sound crazy cam Young no Victor hin number one Keegan Bradley number three Sam
Burns number five hom number six Justin Thomas Ryan Fox Chris Kirk Tommy Fleetwood Matt Fitzpatrick those are the top 10 couple of those guys you mentioned like Phil Fitzpatrick’s numbers on a straight balloon right now Tommy was what 28 last week he’s been doubled up little less but yeah and even to look
At it a little bit closer if we just look Florida pasted 12 rounds Scotty Clark one2 hom spe Fox sunj havin Mitchell Moore Ben Kohl’s who made a nice run in Puerto Rico over the weekend Russell Henley Patrick Klay Rory mroy Justin Su and then Dei matama then Sam
Burns and Jason Day so a few of the guys that stuck out to me in the non- sheffler division I kind of mentioned them Lowry and burns I bet on Justin Thomas other than that like I like Russell Henley coming into the week I love Tom hogi just the way that he’s
Been playing once again just lit it up on Approach at API could make a putt to save his life that’s kind of been the story of his year just the ball striking is immaculate and dude can’t putt he did reel off a 62 here on Saturday last year
So maybe he can figure out these greens a little bit he just needs to put if he continues this ball breaking and can putt a little bit like he’s actually live so I did bet on him at 90 to1 to win this tournament and then other than
That like the guys that just kind of popped to mind immediately like I think that Jason day is playing some like sneakily decent golf right now and if this does become an irons and putting contest I think he could do it Keith Mitchell has just been playing really
Solid golf we know he can win in Florida we know he can win in short courses and then just again like almost like morawa if you take out the recent form and just think like prior sunj is down to like 70 to one in some
Spots so sunjay I mean it yeah it’s been cratering um but he should I feel like just perception wise he was clearly better last week than he has been in a bit uh yeah you open fantasy National and there’s just some there’s actually some green on his
Lines um and we’ve seen he can pop so you could be on to something there that number is huge there’s someone else I want to open because I feel like he kind of feels like a poor man’s morawa when you feel like who would you want to back potentially but the
Approach for Tom Kim has been horrific Pat like him at 75 to one like I there were players Futures at Christmas you’d have like hammered that I know I would have for sure and I I think that these are the guys like Rory morawa Tom Kim sunjay I can see using
These guys on DraftKings this week just because they’re the unpopular names right now there’s a reason that they’re cratering down the board but you can get some ultimate leverage on them that way when I speak on Wednesday about all the DraftKings picks then maybe those names
Will come up but I could see sunjay on the outright card because of the odds but I don’t know if I can get to any of them it’s funny you mentioned cam young because I’m not really a cam young guy whatsoever I kind of laugh at you every
Week when you bet him but he’s playing I don’t know if I’m going to get there at 45 to one but he is playing some pretty decent golf he dude like legit couldn’t putt last week so I’ve even um using the grids I’ve seen it as high as 50 on cam young
And I know you do like to make fun of me when I do bet cam young but you’ve also kind of acknowledged that the balloon cam young number in full Fields is the place where you would consider or potentially wanting to bet camya in the past that’s
What you said I think yes of course basically 40 or one 40 to one or above in like a full field event not necessarily a signature event or something uh kind of like this is where like would be kind of the minimum threshold cuz do I think he wins one of
Every 40 events well I would say yes but that has not proven to be the case so far in his PGA career but let’s not forget like Scotty sheffler was a guy who couldn’t win until he won and then he won everything uh I I think that cam
Young probably falls in the phenow category a lot of the times but when you take a look back at his putting he putt it really well at PGA National and that is in Florida he put it very poorly last week but the other time that he did putt
Well and these are similar greens would be in Phoenix and the approach play has been really good and uh what I’m like trying to say about recent form is recent form means anything everything here this week and then when you look back and you say hey this guy won now
Let’s retroactively look at his recent form does it jive with everyone else who has won one of these tournaments and I would actually say that it does with Camy young he was 36 last week you know that was really nothing although he did gain four strokes on approach he lost
Four strokes putting at Bay Hill previous to that fourth 16th eth like that’s a pretty good run you’d say oh yeah he had two top top 10 and a three top 20s before his win at the Players he had good form coming in like that actually tracks to you doesn’t it well
It does and I I mean I made myself sound stupid easy to do when you asked me for those you know to try to rank the top Florida guys I I had a perception that Camy Young’s actually been quite successful in in Florida uh yeah so I don’t know I mean
Not that I’m afraid about people making fun of like with me posting my card on Twitter and getting like 12 messages of like I’m an idiot for keep betting cam young but I’m an idiot cuz I’m thinking about it this morning 50 to one yeah
He’s in that 50 range so the other guys in that 50 range right now like the max odds the best number that you can find at the moment so it’s like cam young Jason Dave Fleetwood minwoo the gala Cory Connor is there I I thought about Cory Connors cuz I liked Cory Connors
Last week and I think that the scoring was a bit too easy for Cory Connors to win that event and it’s funny to say that as someone who has won Valero back-to-back years and those are huge scores uh birdie Fest it just when you have an elevated field and he’s not
Playing a bunch of jabronies at these tournaments we’ve always seen him do better the in the hardest conditions where the Winner’s going to be like minus 8us 10 the conditions don’t look that bad for Saw Grass this week like there is wind it’s probably going to
Come on Friday a little bit on Thursday and then on Sunday it looks like it’s going to get super windy but overall Thursday and Saturday look fine there doesn’t seem to be any rain in the forecast so no delays so if I’m thinking of a winning score I’m thinking and
That’s kind of how you have to play like what do you think is going to happen throughout the course of the tournament I’d say the winner is likeus 14 something like that Ken Corey Connor Chip and Putt enough to get to minus 14 at Saw Grass I just it would have to be
Such an amazing chipping and putting week for his Baseline that I just don’t think he can like a great topy Conor bad win bet yeah Cory Connor I swear to you P of everyone like 60 to1 and Below he to me he’s one of like three players in
This whole field Whose Line didn’t whose odds didn’t go up because of Sheffer he was 16 to1 last week he did sort of what Corey Connor does you know he was fine certainly wasn’t a ceiling Connor’s week so I was surprised because as a guy that
You know Connor would be on that wheel for sure for me as a guy that like you know my eyes always want to go to him quickly was shocked to see that it’s the same get in prices you got to play with last week that Fitzpatrick’s ballooned to 70
Sure like Fitzpatrick’s form is too bad to even like consider as an outright win here not to say that he can’t win but just I’m not going to consider it based on the way that he’s been playing like PJ National when I bet him there at 30
To1 or 33 to1 that actually did make some sense very weak field you bet on Talent you bet on upside he actually had a pretty good week he just didn’t win but against all of the best players I do think that form comes a lot more into
The focus this time around and if it’s going to be a birdie Fest I just see it being not a Corey Conor’s week I I I kind of want to say the same thing for Shane Lowry too that I need the difficulty to be ratcheted up a little
Bit if I think that he’s going to win like I bet Cory Connor’s last week to win an API the tournament was easier than I thought that it was going to be now maybe that’s because Sheffer made it look easy uh and I bet Cory Conor’s top
20 as well that was my gold pick on the best bet show he came t18 so it was a winning bet on Cory Connor to come inside the top 20 oh big best bet show this week by the way Jeff do you know who I have on the best bet show on
Tuesday you haven’t told me I have Byron lindu the model maniac and Ben Coley the three of us so you’re gonna have a lot of international flavor on the best bet show tomorrow wonderful uh love that and yeah you guys I think you guys did a bang up job last week Connor’s the
Banana stand yeah Connor’s got it and Cam’s best bet was Sheffer top America American 4 to1 so in like hindsights like four to one top nationality for Sheffer What were what was what was his number to win seven last week part of MiG it was seven
Yeah we we talked it Through Me Cam and DB talked it through with Chef like yeah 41’s actually a pretty good number if you take it relative to his outright odds because I think number two and three in the market were Rory and Victor who were International so you just take
Them out of the market and ludvig was up there too inside the top six so you got rid of three of the next six guys on the betting board made made made ton of sense well played so for me in this like 50 to 100 range I bet Henley at 60 to1
Like he’s coming off a good week let’s go this and all like this is a part of the Russell Henley rotation of courses that he plays well and in those best ball drafts that I’ve been doing for major season code Mayo at Underdog by the way go do that right now and fill
Out the survey I’ve been taking a lot of Russell Henley Russell Henley’s been been been playing great I in some ways feel the same way but this number as I do the Shane Lowry number but I don’t know you got to have guts you gotta have balls
Yeah I I think I was hoping it was going to be 80 but 60 like if he was a guy I identified anyway I don’t really I mean I would care that if there was an 80 out there I wouldn’t bet the 60 but if 60 is
The best number I can get uh I I’m just I’m rolling with him I I think that he’s live to win this tournament and on the broadcast at PGA naal uh the commentator said that he’s one of the five best Putters in the world now I didn’t go fact check that
Because that would be wrong but they said it so it has to be true right right yeah they do that sometimes that’s sometimes sometimes if if they see anyone do anything on the broadcast they are immediately a top five player in the world at that particular skill because
They just saw it yeah and and I feel like they um take Liberties clearly with how they describ players like when they say oh he’s one of the best in the world I think they’re describing it in terms of like every registered golfer on earth like not narrowing it to PGA players so
Like yes of course they’re all the best in the world at everything out there um and and what makes some of these mistakes so much sadder is everyone surely listening to this show knows how easily readily available the information is to these guys it’s not like a past
Period where it wasn’t like it’s so easily accessible to have the information on where exactly player X is in the world as it relates to any specific skill the other bet that I made and this one goes in the face of good this is the
One bet that I kind of jumped on and I’m going to regret it because I never bet this guy and it’s Brian her I bet him at 75 to1 he can win I me he almost won the year that Justin Thomas won uh it was him and Bryson and Justin Thomas down
The stretch three years ago at the Players I liked what I saw at API man he gained almost six Strokes on approach he lost two strokes putting like that is the anti Brian Herman game now he’s going to lose Strokes off the te he is protected at that this course in that
Sense because he’s just going to hit the he’s just going to find the Fairway he’s going to not get himself into trouble and then you have to hope that that that approach keeps up and that was after losing over 10 combined in the previous two tournaments that you know if
Something went on for him I kind of want to ride that hot streak he’s a major Champion too let’s not forget that I mean I have a chance to get the money back by doing what you’re doing and betting Brian Harman at 75 to one but if he does win I feel like
Going on vacation cost me money because I would have been one of those monkeys at home like crushing the earlies crushing you guys you know me in past and I was complaining to you guys last week for the premier event I wanted these odds up earlier like this is their
Flagship event the the odds should honestly be Evergreen available in the same way the majors are I don’t understand it I I don’t get it either and I I’m not quite sure what it is because I was looking for DraftKings pricing uh because that usually comes
Out on like Thursday and we do the show on Friday I as of right now it’s still not out that’s crazy I know but like yeah yeah I don’t know I was the dumb enough to think we’ have players odds up they they give you waste management goddamn odds at
Christmas hog yeah I would have Lov hog early hogi at night sorry I talked over you I’m interrupting you non-stop at the moment although I feel like I’ve been on my best behavior today what was the name you realize you say you you feel like you’re on your best behavior every week
Week right you’ve been saying no just two weeks in a row because I had a really bad I I had a a floor I I had a floor performance once in a while and I know like that was bad and I’ve been better I’m making progress in the same
Way the golfers you’re betting you’re just looking for some like Anthony Kim making some progress here Patrick well I mean once he gets his fitted clubs uh maybe he can continue to excel up the leaderboard he’s playing on the Asian tour this week uh before they go to
Deral uh when the lior comes back stat side but Tom hogi 90 to1 that’s going to be a very popular bet this week and I am one of the people who is also betting it yeah so totally totally um I don’t was enjoying the Sun but what he did on
Saturday was egregious with the putter but when you bet hogi that’s in the range of of outcomes uh also on a guy who does a lot of what hogi can do and and like Adam Scott I think he lost like seven strokes pting on Thursday I I
Think that he needs to be added to your wheel of losers I haven’t bet Scott in a while but I stand for him and I still can’t believe in last year we got so many older guys like get back into it and he still can’t by by into it I mean winner
Circle like we saw Rose and Glover like so many guys how’s he not able to do it but whatever winnings hard hard I still might be a sucker for Tom Kim up here although it is benan who is the ATM at the moment you know good for
Him it is benan I don’t know do you think that he can win a putting contest here no I mean I don’t think I could bet him to win but just every week like the guy is just raking it in it seems every week he has this nice little Sunday he
Finishing T15 T10 bringing home huge bucks big points it’s nice I I’m trying to think through what my bets are going to be for the best bet show and like Adam Scott top 20 might be a really good bet he’s still striking it but he got
Better with the putter he just he’s lost at a field at the moment I mean he he had puted well at Phoenix he puted well at Riv it just he had he had a bad guys have bad weeks putting if Scotty shef can lead the field and putting then guys
Who are normally good at putting can just be bad for one week too it happens no you’re right and the way you look at it like look at Adams he was eighth in Phoenix 20 at Genesis 20 at Pebble you’re you’re that that that seems like that’d be a pretty sharp call
Pack there’s a money in Adam Scott this week not really talking about the outright Market there’s money in Adam Scott I feel and played really well with the Windom Championship as well the past few years he was seventh there last year remember he famously missed that four 4
Foot Putt in the playoff to win it in the six-man playoff a few years ago so I I think that he’s live at I mean he’s won the Players championship before I’ll be at like two decades ago at this point this used to be a spot for like the big
Breakthrough uh for a younger player where be it Adam Scott be it Sergio uh we’ve seen that happen from time to time although I am kind of freaked by you know whether it be Heron hogi uh Russell Henley that the names that when you look at the past winners the past four years
They’re all like real names and those guys I like them they’re not real names if you know what I mean I know exactly what you mean so you know you but at the same time I feel more confident about those guys against the real names because it feels like there’s way less
Real names than ever the one I will throw out to you because you haven’t brought him up another guy on your wheel of losers and I bet him last week too and he was a real loser last week was ludvig who second at Pebble Beach shorter course won the RSM shorter
Course he was top 15 at Windham shorter course uh second at Sanderson Farms a shorter course fourth at John Deere a shorter course maybe he is weirdly a where he can manage and play well because of his driving at the longer courses like we saw at farmers and
Genesis where he was you know top 20 at both of those that maybe these are actually the preferred courses for him at the moment yeah so we kind of got past it and I was waiting to turn around the bus to go back there so I’m happy you did
The driving thank you you’re you’re way better at me than that um I could easily be I’m the Mark I’m the mark like we talk about the numbers getting bigger I am the mark it feel it felt like he was so off last week he was still 25th he was still
Finishing 25th he couldn’t hit an approach shot he finished 25th at Bay Hill he couldn’t hit an approach shot I might get I might just have to get right back on this wagon yeah the other just just thinking about some of the past winners at this course just
Because I when I was just running through it guys that have played pretty well here how about the rocket mortgage Ricky won rocket mortgage last year he beat hadwin who I believe has been inside the top 15 each of the past two years we like morawa as a course fit
Here though that was the playoff last year rocket mortgage Lucas Glover had just missed it’s a good news for cust on that front the year before you had fow beat Klay pendrith and cam Young pendrith has some like decent results at the Players Championship Cam Davis won
The year before that he was top 10 in this tournament a year ago um BR Bryson won in 2020 he’s someone that um has come in second place at the Players before and maybe it’s like a year-to-year thing but I thought that was kind of interesting maybe it means
Nothing maybe it’s such a short sample but just some of those names stuck out to me right away I was thinking we could would get to Ricky um he impressed me well impressed me at Honda but um I haven’t even seen where his number is because it’s not in front of a
100 yeah I mean his best finish so far in 2020 was at was actually at the Genesis he was 35th like even at Honda e think came 41st he had a nice run on Saturday and that was it and I just want to confirm something you said so these are I these
Are not Bermuda Greens in March in March yeah because the POA the POA is still the the Bermuda is dormant so it’s going to be POA is I mean that’s what the Green Sheet tells me and back to you know um but but I I would say I would say that listen I’m
Not a grass expert here uh maybe you’re the grass expert who knows but the POA here in the POA in Phoenix is a lot different than the POA at like Riv in Pebble Beach in the California courses yeah just looking enjoying um some of these putting stats from ludvig on that
Pole as he got comfortable I mean his putting has been really good overall like based on the numbers that I have uh right now so if we’re just looking at I released the mixed condition model so the top 10 in power rankings based on all the key stats that I looked at that
I walked through in the research Scotty Xander Burns Thomas CLE are the top five ludvig Keith Mitchell Adam Scott hogi hadwin are the next five uh just like not like that includes recent form that includes the players model that I set up Windom Championship Pete die courses length of course two power difficulty
Everything combined into one those were the top 10 I want to trust a few of those guys and I find it hard like if Klay wins this week in retrospect when you retroactively look at the recent form you’re like oh yeah of course can’t lay
Won he had great form coming in uh and he did he had a terrible API as someone who like bet him his first round lader was like oh yeah he’s got to be great I made some under Patrick Klay cost me like a thousand bucks an underdog pick
Comes this week cuz he kept being [ __ ] all week like oh he’ll rebound today no didn’t rebound today at all but he was fourth at Genesis he was 11th at Pebble Beach he’s been playing some pretty decent golf I’m not going to bet him but
You could kind of look at it back the other way be like oh yeah that makes a ton of sense but for me I I think I’m just going to stick with I mean ludvig you could make the case for I’m probably not going to get there like Lowry Burns
Hideki like those guys just keep they’re top of mind for me and I and I don’t know what to do yeah hii is is probably my favorite like he’s 30 or number um I want to trust him and at the same time you look at a guy like
Kentley and I’m not betting kentley I’ve done it plenty of times I know I did it at the Genesis I can he finished 36 at API I am I can be such an apologist for a guy who’s been playing well but played horrible at the API like you could you
Could just just get in your own way there and it goes to [ __ ] so quick that I I could almost like ignore it but that’s but you have to find your own way to find your bets and you know I’m silly enough to do something like that at the
Same number like what why would Klay be a better bet than Xander Xander is a better bet than Klay right now not that I agree not that I’m betting Xander like I don’t think that I am unless that number really balloons up but objectively they’re the same price I
Would much rather bet Xander than canl so here I here I certainly think I would agree with that I mean looking at Xander’s field ranks near perfect but that’s every course that’s every week and then he just doesn’t win he doesn’t seem to have it’s weird
He and Klay are kind of the same in that sense not that they can’t I mean they have won tournaments before they both won you know the Tour Championship so they’ve won big events in their career but it’s not like there’s the one thing that you point to that they do so much
Better than everything else they’re kind of like the the all balance team like when you’re making DraftKings lineups you’re drafting a fantasy football team it’s like yeah I I’m not going to spend all my money in the auction on like the three best guys and try to pick some
Losers at the bottom no I’m going to draft all the guys that are like relative values that is kley that is Xander whereas like Sheffer is just this amazing ball he’s the Tiger Woods basically a ball striking right now is on this sort of run someone CED him to
VJ sing and I thought that was the most AP thing that I’ve heard in a really long time when VJ went on his run that basically matched tigers in 2003 and 2004 when VJ actually became the number one player in the world over tiger that it’s basically the same run sheffer’s on
Right now what was the thing that held VJ back the entire time dude couldn’t putt that is a very quality comp and yeah like your you know Xander is like the perfect rotisserie baseball player like just nibbles like I used to joke I feel like I once upon a time
Going to a different sport called him like Andre koleno when I was in university and playing fantasy basketball Jurassic I gota go like sixth overall he just dabbled every every box score he would dabble it um but does he have that cealing one stat that can you
Know just Monster you over the rest of the field and I don’t know some that feels like that’s what it takes to win the big events you’ve got to explode in sort of what you’re good at and be Baseline and what you’re bad at and just
Being Bas like good across the board I don’t know look what it’s getting them well and I think that’s funny too because like you can bet morawa whatever and morawa can make you look really foolish when you bet on him and he shoots an 80 or something like that and
Ditto for Justin Thomas but those are two of like I said the five best approach players in the world when they have it going it’s like oh no and you feel really if you don’t have money on them when they start to get it going you’re just like oh yeah I’m I’m
Cooked and this is why that morwa has won two majors and Justin Thomas has won two majors because they Flatline a lot of the time when they don’t have it they don’t have it they’re wildly out of contention whereas kley and Xander it’s like oh yeah they have a bunch of t7s
But they’re playing the best that they can do to go to those t7s where those other guys feel like in the right week they have the other level to put them over the top yeah and that’s part of the game of about right Bing is like don’t be afraid
To make the worst pick possible because fourth P Place pays as much as miscut so beyond that is there anyone from inside 100 to1 else that you want to talk about right now not really um no okay so let’s move to 100 to one and Beyond do you think that in the year
Of the long shot these guys are alive I’m the wrong guy to ask but yeah I do on this golf course in this season sort of feels like they’ve got to be so I have bet one two three long shots as of right now maybe it’s did you
Bet EVR like everyone on my Twitter feed I did not bet EVR I by the time I got to him his odds were down to like 70 so I was like yeah I don’t know if I want to bet EVR at 7 maybe I should cuz like he
Does rate out really well for me but the three guys that I went to um two of them are like accuracy guys who can heat up with the irons and hopefully make some putts uh one of them is a guy that I I went all in on Once Upon a Time Jeff at
Almost exactly the same number and it really did not work out because I think he finished 13 over at the Players Championship do you know who my number one long shot is of the week Grio Grio at 110 to1 bet 365 has the eight placements so I took the eight
Placements on him as well uh so let’s do it 110 to one on Grio I mean I was like guessing who do I want to bet there as much as like who might have screwed pet over in the past Rio is a form guy who seems to be in
Form and seems to be able to carry his form so I like that a lot I like that a lot we were in a small Booth many years ago I almost thought this guy was like destined to win something something like this it’s been a long time I don’t know
If I’ll trust him to hit a big putt on Sunday but I could totally get behind this I love the form and I ride the form it’s the putting the the the putting has been the big change for him he’s gaining on the greens over his past 20 events
He’s getting two strokes gained per tournament and that you know has it hasn’t quite taken him out of the negative for his career in terms of putting uh but it’s not like the the the two-year run he went on where he was just losing four Strokes or basically a
Stroke around on the greens now he’s getting like a half stroke per on the greens if he can keep that going forward and just continue to hit Fairways and have one of those electric approach weeks because he is he’s weirdly one of those guys right like seiw Kim in a
Weird way like some weeks they just got it and you hope you’re on them that week yeah I think this GNA be my first bet Grio okay first thing that’s actually in because I’ve got nothing in yet and I’m just trying to find it as
Big as possible all right so the other I know you want placings but I’m I’m uh yeah I’m I’m stupid I I I I only went placings because it’s the top eight and Beyond 100 to one is the way that I’m doing it I’m greedy of course you are uh
The second one and I was surprised at his odds you talked about guys that like really fell down the betting board based on like a bad week I mean I don’t I didn’t think he had a chance to win at Tory Pine so who knows I bet pavon 125 to one
Dude I swear to God we have not yes he’s leg I don’t know I’m convinced he’s he’s as good as that other half of the field at this point yeah he’s out of bad like the 75 to one guys like the guys 60 to 80 he is at this point I don’t know
What differentiates him I’ll tell you what does is that he’s top 10 in an approach coming into this tournament he’s won already this year has another top five has another top 10 and two of them at shorter courses at Pebble Beach and at Sony which would be more comp
Courses to this than API was where he was terrible I like everything you’re delivering into my mailbox right now last one ready for it I I missed I missed it the last time although I want a DraftKings tournament because of him but when I think about
What do you need here keep the ball dry so accurate off the tea can you make some putts sure you can make some putts from time to time can you get your irons going yeah and now I’ve seen him do it e root 175 to one maybe he’s just better
Than that he just needed to win first yeah got that college pedigree of thinking he’d be in a different class by now I okay very sneakily last week he was 36th at API he lost two and a half Strokes off the te he lost lost a half
Stroke around the greens he lost two strokes putting gained 4.1 Strokes on approach he comes in bes Sheffer as the hottest irons player it’s Sheffer hogy than eot so in Mexico he gained 5.4 at Honda he gained 5.8 last week he gained 4.1 the driver is going to be bad and
Where was it bad at longer courses at API it was bad at Mexico it’s not a hard course but it’s a long course it was bad there uh he gained at Sony off the tea he gained at RSM off the te uh and if the irons are going to continue to click
Like this just got to start making some putts and all of a sudden we’re in business and you get them with the top eight so pays out really well on a top eight finish I mean like you said it’s guys’s in I don’t know he’s in form he’s already won in
Florida I don’t I don’t I like the other ones a bit more because in some ways like in my head like ekro wins you know for the most part still should feel like a finite number and and maybe we we’re already there but but uh I I really like
Pev I’m going to be betting peval and Grio for sure okay Paul and I see them 150 to one but no eways yeah no I wanted to take the eway so I wasn’t able to boost that up Paul is the leader of Novak Nation Andrew Novak yes Andrew
Novak Paul has three consecutive top 10s in PGA Tour events he opened at 275 to1 I saw DB of the tour junkies immediately made that wager he is down now to where are we at here 150 150 to one for Andrew Novak there’s a 250 to one at uh at Philip Rivers okay
I just actually hit it with a top seven each way uh oh 250 top seven yeah Rivers delivers those yeah I mean three top 10 in a row I used to think it was you know Resort courses with Pas palum greens yada yada yada but it’s seems like Novak
Nation is going worldwide at this point and I couldn’t be happier so he’s probably going to hit the drink a whole bunch of times and missed the cut but that happens here and he’s 250 to one what’s the Worst That Could Happen yeah you lose your 10
Bucks trying to turn Andrew Novak $10 into 2,500 bucks I don’t I don’t know what to do with him uh it’s just very I I because I’m with Paul like this doesn’t really feel like the fit for him but he just just did it at PGA National
He did it in Phoenix puted well at both those tournaments it’s kind of funny how well he’s playing is this stage just too big for him potentially Jeff I mean I could say that about everybody back here yeah do I trust like Andrew Novak staring down a dragon on Sunday to actually
Win yeah but like it sort of feels like there’s just way less dragons out there and even the ones you think like I don’t know very few people are acting like those Dragons I’m usually afraid of yeah I mean it’s going to be very funny when shefford just wins by seven
All these picks are really stupid but these are probably the guys of the top 40 top 30 Market that we’ll talk more about on the best bet show on Tuesday so tune in to that if you want some placement markets there was a collection of players though I did want to bring up
Because I don’t really know what to do with them but I I kind of like all of them in a weird way like you can get Keegan at 100 you can get JT Poston at 100 Chris Kirk at 100 Eric Cole Eric Cole all of a sudden is back to being a
Jabron in the betting Market he went for being ludvig to JT Poston overnight just two bad tournaments uh but also down there uh oh there’s the 100 to one on EVR but like I like Jagger Nick like why is Nick Taylor like Nick just had like a
Pretty good week at API he’s in good form right now he’s like 140 to one in some spots proven winner Nick Taylor yeah he seems very popular um but it makes sense why people would been attracted to that you think the scoring will be low enough for Jagger yeah I
Do like yeah when you say that you mean like yeah if Jagger is gonna win he probably needs to win at like minus 15 or something like that right yeah I think the harder the better the harder the better for Yager I was gonna go the other I was
Going to go the other way on that like easier the better for Jagger I don’t know he seems like a guy that doesn’t hit putts but can keep it in the greens but doesn’t hit nearly enough putts see I I would lean back the other way I think overall you’re right about
That that he normally does not hit a lot of putts but he’s weird in that sense that when he does putt well he putts really well so just to kind of go back and like retroactively look at some of his past performances here from the past
Year so let’s go back to starting at Travelers last year he lost 7.4 Strokes in that tournament gained three T de greens he’s played well some of the Pete die tracks over the years but like 3m- 3.5 – 7.4 -4 – 1.5 past two weeks minus
3.2 minus 3.2 but the ones where he’s gained plus 4.2 plus 3.4 plus 2.2 plus three plus 4 plus 3.4 so there’s very few like break even weeks for step Jagger either he’s putting well and that happens or he’s putting poorly and that happens there’s no real in between those
Are the guys that I like yeah if you trust them then that’s that’s who I from like north of 100 to one that’s who you should be eyeing down and you’re playing it with the placing so you don’t even need to trust them to the extent that’s a greedy [ __ ] like me
Needs to the the issue is is that I like him L like I like him objectively but I like him a lot less than some of the other names that are around him like I like eveve are better they’re the same odds Ricky is the same odds as Steven
Jagger Nick Taylor has longer odds Grio has longer and that’s probably why I won’t get to him is just he’s not in the right range for me I wanted him to be in that ecro range then I would be on him at 75 points more but if you’re giving
Me a choice all things being equal between Jagger and Bez noren Mitchell Kirk Cole hadwin Poston all those guys like all those guys are just better I don’t find a hole in that I mean I’ve been I never bet Stephen Jagger and now I’ve sort of been in this thing where
I’ve kind of embeding him so I need to get off it when I started I was told like that’s not a habit you want to start you know what what okay how about Nick Dunlap for this tournament I honestly didn’t even consider him he just wanted he wanted a
Pete die course he won on these very similar type of greens why not Nikki D I’m surprised you haven’t brought up your boy Ryan Fox cuz he seemed to rank really high in your Florida model not playing that bad he played I mean are you sure that he’s not playing that
Bad is he doing something a week ago maybe I’m just uh getting too much sun here uh 35th miscut 41st miscut those that’s his season so far so not great on the uh on the front for Ryan Fox I do love Ryan Fox and he is someone that I wrote up for that
Major season baseball I’m going to have like an article on guys that you can take in the last round for that so again Underdog fantasy underd drafts the pat Mayo open is up there right now it’s already 75% full so go get your drafts
In I got two more to do I got four teams in there so I’ll tweet out when I’m going to be doing that maybe we’ll even do that on uh Thursday during the players that you know I’ll do like a a video or a Twitter spaces or something
We can do some drafts together on that but use the code that’s how you can help out the show the most is by going on to Underdog using Code Mayo that’ll help out the show more than you know but my write up on Fox is that you kind of have
To like you have to pick the spot when he gets hot but once he gets hot you want to keep riding him all of his best career performances they come in clusters like four and he’s just great for like three of those four weeks so if
You see him like pop a top 12 or something just bet Ryan Fox for the next three weeks that’s that would be my advice on Ryan Fox uh but we haven’t really ever seen it on the PGA tour it’s been more of the Asian tour the DP World Tour so
But he was one of the few guys who made the cut in every major last year and I think he is in all of the majors or he’s in three of the four majors as of right now so that’s what made him a good best ball pick in the last round for those
Major drafts I think we’ve talked enough about it let’s get to the wheel of losers the quick picks for the Players Championship so I got my guys um and this is all subject to change I’ll have my final bet in the newsletter on Wednesday evening I’ll finalize it with
RZA on Wednesday as well when we go over the one and done and everything like that uh for the race the May cup I’m very sneakily inside the top 60 in the race for the Mayo Cup right now Jeff saw that you were part of the
Sheffer wagon yeah I just took I was like you know what Sheffer let’s just pick him and see how it works out so the past two years I’ve actually both times that I’ve used sheffler he’s won a signature event I used him in Phoenix last year Bay Hill this year taking good
Players at good events good strategy as it turns out I have bet on Justin thas at 25 to1 I’m going to continue to roll with that after that I got Henley at 60 Herman at 75 hogi at 90 and then I got ecro 175 paval 125 Grio 120 or 110 to
One all with the top eight each way so eight placing if they finish inside the top eight it’s going to be a winner at 15if of those placement odds uh that I bet them at to begin with but I’m really trying to figure out what I want to do
Back at the other end is it going to be Hideki is it going to be Lowry I think it’s probably going to be Burns cuz I am a [ __ ] for punishment with a lot of this stuff and I can just see it now up by two on Sunday water water water finishes
Like T9 or something like it um so for me near the top my favorites at the moment not a single bet in would be Hadi and lve I missed the juicy will Alat Taurus but I could also end up back there um I think you’d see my cards haven’t
Really been on Tommy this year despite using him as my oneand done last week but I at 50 to one in Florida I’m probably gonna be a part of that and I have played both your pavon and Grio 150 to one just those are the those are the two bets I’ve actually
Made today they are in let’s go oneand done picks uh somehow I won the week with Rory of all people last week against your Fleet with zero do and cus cam young $89 so I remain in the lead in the one and done so obviously cus picks
In order number three Lucas Glover Jake knap number two and then number one will zotus so will zotus is cuss one andone for The Players Championship who am I going to take this week screw it I have first pick I’ll take sheffler morawa morawa for you I would have taken
Justin Thomas but I used Justin Thomas already and I’ve used Sam Burns already so not looking great for me on that you should have taken Grio get get frisky um we’re going to get out of here in a moment but do you have any opinion on that Windam Clark situation from
Saturday what when his ball moved but I mean I had money on Windom Clark to win so I was happy he wasn’t penalized if that’s what you’re asking that’s it right extra Ed a guy loves big events will go the extra Edge like hey there’s
A reason we love to bet on Patrick Reed because he’s he’ll he’ll cheat for your money is that’s the Windam Clark Special if like there’s a chance for him to get an advantage then boy Windham Clark is going to take it love to see it yeah I
Know the actual and listen there have been two questionable incidents in a short period of time which allows us to have this conversation but there really is nothing I love more makes than a really good player who also likes to break the rules like that is
Oh well I I mean wind Clark’s PR team might be doing a really good job right now because you know he’s won a major he’s won these two elevated events and what happened to every villain on the PGA tour they all went to live so the
Door is wide open for anyone on the PGA tour to take that mantle as like guy that people root against and you mentioned like people kind of root against JT people root against Klay but they’re not villains people just don’t like they’re boring and people don’t
Like them if Clark is act like a True Villain and he really Embraces this this is fantastic yeah I mean there’s no doubt to the fact that they took a lot of the I don’t want to say even villain like just simply personalities because other than Patrick Reed like were those guys
Villains I guess BR at times not to us but yeah but like Bryson’s been like people disliked Bryson people disliked Hatton and for until Ram started winning basically until he won the US Open people forget how much people hated John Rome because he was a crybaby and he had
A temper and all that stuff that all went away when you start winning yeah you’re right certainly the personalities and yeah players that rub people differently so Windam Clark you’re you’re you’re you’re up and as us like golf nerds like we’re just waiting for a narrative so you you you get you move
One more ball or do anything you you take a nice fat step in grass like an inch behind your ball again and and you’ll turn the machine buddy I I did see a lot of people were very upset with Windam Clark too cuz he he didn’t shank
The shop he just didn’t hit it how he wanted he was just like [ __ ] like smashed Fairway in front of him I was like that’s very relatable I’ve done that and then you have like the very Pious golf people he should be disqualified from the tournament for doing that it’s like [ __ ]
Off remember when Sergio did that in Saudi Arabia when he was just hacking the bunker after a terrible bunker shot Sergio’s another one like a quote unquote villain polter quote unquote villain all on Li yeah you’re right you’re right you’re right I woke up I
Had cam Smith monies so I woke up up like like in the middle of the morning to watch live Hong Kong to see if he could stage a comeback and then he did and then he lost anyway I had Windam Clark come in second I had cam Smith
Losing a playoff on Liv and I really if it wasn’t for the [ __ ] first round in Puerto Rico Adrien deont deah would have won in Puerto Rico he was the best player in rounds two three and four game six I’d Vic pazzy ran out of holes but just another we week of
Losers so that was close last week so maybe we can get it going this week but yeah the wind no Vic Perez I had Wills all the like swimming I’m swimming in a pool but I get eaten well that will do it on the pat Mayo experience if you are in Vegas over
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Stuff that I think people are really going to enjoy so go get it now and if you do that right now take the 15-second survey in the description where you could win one of five $1,000 prizes I think the winners are going to be given away on Sunday evening this week it’s
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Players through the Masters so no better time to become a member all year long than right now at Fantasy national.com I’m Pat Mayo thank you for watching I’ll see you next time P Mayo experience experience
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
6:16 CUST Picks
21:26 Custys Debate Annoucnemnt
25:14 THE PLAYERS FIELD
27:02 Scheffler
29:57 Top Odds
50:06 50-100
58:15 Aberg
1:04:02 Upside Players
1:07:22 100+
1:19:55 Quick Picks
1:22:25 One and Done
1:23:49 Wyndham Clark as a Villain
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Along for the Experience…with the Guys, the BEST in Biz! Had Scheff for my O&D
L Adberg 33/1 S Burns 35/1 B AN 90/1 JT Poston 90/1 my bets for the players championship
Now with Pat & Crews breakdown for the Players im looking for a Back 2 Back LFG!
Noooo Willy Z cursed 😫
No one wants LIV back. Let them rot with their dirty money. They are going to realize they made a big mistake. No one cares about LIV. All they have is money. Let them enjoy it and lets never speak of them again.
Ruff week has Clark and Willie z this past week . Haven't hit an outright since Fleetwood in Dubai last month alot of top 10s gotta get over the hump need an outright to boost some confidence Scottie looks the the play this week I just dont see who can contend with him the way hes striking it just gotta make couple putts on the week odds suck shef is just on another level . I expect the putter to stay hot. Any thoughts on Stephan jager here as a longshot
I’m going to start saying I had a “floor performance” when I screw up at work. Love the line Geoff
Took Matsuyama @ 32s and Tom Kim @ 75 tempted with hovland
I bet Grillo 150-1 on Sunday night, but then decided to cash it out. So congrats to you guys on that winner!
1st time in at least 5 years the PLAYERS odds haven't been up early
Fun and informative show. Pat, I appreciate the classics on display: cuckoo's, pulp, goodfellas, sideways, boogie nights, etc…
Russell Henley Am/Pm wave for the win this week. Great stuff Pat and Geoff!
Love Jeff🌴⛱️🌊🙏🏻😎💰
Wait, we get to see Jeff in Florida, in a hotel room??😳