Jeff Erickson and Scott Jenstad discuss how the 2024 closer market looks in fantasy leagues and then discuss a number of interesting starting pitchers going in the top 200 of drafts, including Zac Gallen, Grayson Rodriguez and Michael King.
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0:00 – Intro
2:45 – Cody Bellinger – Signed with Cubs 3/80 (with opt outs)
07:20 – Jonathan India Setback with plantar fasciitis, no games for 2 weeks.
10:00 – Kodai Senga – PRP Injection Sunday, shut down from throwing for 3 weeks.
12:30 – Kyle Bradish – Playing catch from 90 feet, progress is all positive.
17:30 – Closer Market in 2024
23:30 – Open Jobs
30:00 – Edwin Diaz
31:00 – Emmanuel Clase
34:15 – Jordan Romano
35:45 – Alexis Diaz
39:00 – Paul Sewald
42:15 – Evan Phillips
46:00 – Clay Holmes
48:00 – Jose Alvarado
50:00 – Alex Lange
56:30 – Hunter Harvey
58:15 – Starting Pitchers in the Top 150 (ADP last 30 days)
59:00 – Gerrit Cole (ADP 15.3)
1:04:45 – George Kirby (38.9)
1:09:45 – Zac Gallen (41.7)
1:11:30 – Tarik Skubal (54.4) & Aaron Nola (57.4)
1:15:40 – Grayson Rodriguez (72) & Bobby Miller (80.3)
1:19:20 – Eury Perez (85.2)
1:25:00 – Justin Steele (108.1), Cole Ragans (108.8), Tanner Bibee (119.2)
1:29:00 – Hunter Greene (143.4), Michael King (147)
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We’re going to be talking a lot of pitching tonight on the roadwire fantasy baseball podcast closers and starters all coming up Next happy Sunday evening everybody Welcome to the roadwire fantasy baseball podcast sponsored by fan tracks we appreciate them for the sponsorship uh Jeff Erikson is here with me as always I am Scott Jens we’re talking the closer Market in 2024 which is kind of a fascinating one we’re talking some
Starting pitching uh in the top50 so starting pitching the first 10 rounds in a 15 teamer talk about some intriguing names there some polarizing names uh Jeff really quick give me a rotowire.com slod plug okay Roa wire.com pod you your free Peak behind the pay wall you get
Access to all of our articles our rankings our player news our projected starters grid you name it getting ready for a draft season and in the season is as well if depending on where we’re at you get two days behind the pay wall no credit card required and we think you’ll
Like it and you’ll want to subscribe that’s worked for us for 20 years so hopefully you’ll keep doing it uh rotowire.com pod it’s why I have you do it you do that so well well thank you how’s everything with you jefff uh I’m good I’m good I I I posted the hitting
Category targets article up on the site this weekend and I’m going to do the same for pitching soon uh just you know getting some of the data I was a I was a year off of my pitching data so it’s taking me a little bit longer to do that
But uh yeah it’s it’s I mean you really realize just how much St and bases have jumped for instance and like and yet how it was it doesn’t necessarily translate into overall success by dominating the category whereas if you dominate ER whip home runs RBI you dominate everything
Else too so yeah and so same You Know lesson that you learn from stolen bases mostly applies to saves too which we’ll be talking about later we will be I I feel like this week really like ramped up the baseball uh draft chatter I don’t know what happened I don’t know if it
Was just football ending or everybody kind of realized we got a month until drafts in Vegas a lot of high stakes contest coming up but I just like my text messages and Twitter like just a lot of like stat talk and like breaking down players and I felt like that really
Ramped up this well yeah for sure and drafts happened too I mean scarf and the Earth the series of Earth drafts happened over the last two weekends uh and mixed labor was Tuesday night I did that one and you know we’re back on days now you and I are doing podcasts every
Sunday now yeah um it’s just the rhythm is happening here it’s it’s great you know and I’m excited let’s hit we got a lot to talk about we’re gonna talk relievers and starters but real quick just some news and notes just some stuff that happened over the weekend uh one of
The free agents finally signed and I’m not talking about Garrett Cooper I’m talking about Cody Bellinger signing with the Cubs uh three years 80 million pretty fascinating deal because he has an opt out after each of the first two years so essentially it’s a kind of a
LeBron James Kevin Durant like one year and then you know plus two kind of you seen the NBA a lot billinger gets 30 million this year 30 million next year then 20 million um it’s inter deal because if he has another great year I assume he opts out and tries to get that
You know n-digit guaranteed payout he’s just kind of okay or bad obviously bad he stays but if he’s just kind of okay he probably takes the 30 million next year too it’s an interesting little setup I think it kind of works for both sides it was a clever workaround um it
It it g it banks in some security for Bellinger uh it you honestly I think more teams should be doing things like this you know I think I think we may see a couple of these the next week or two was with some of these names you know I think in
Old parland sometimes it’s called a pillow contract you know you get the big big one year but it’s you know it’s a soft Landing um I’m not sure that’s why they call the pillow contract I don’t know that or I just know that’s what it’s called I heard I heard Bridge
Contract a lot yeah I’ve heard that too yeah um and uh you know it’s what it does is it it doesn’t tie either side in but it gives you know palpable upside too uh obviously the team has to really love the player but like Blake’s and I I
Can see why pitchers may not does does the team really have to love the player because it’s like worst case it’s three years right right and so it’s not so bad but I mean you’re paying a lot of money paying a lot of money but like it’s not
A you know a 61 whatever that you’re like oh my gosh if this goes bad year two we’re really screwed if this goes bad year two you just you eat a bad year but right the thing with Ballinger is tough because he had he was so we talked
About him a couple podcasts ago he was so different last year he decided you know it seemed like he definitely decided to change approach didn’t strike out didn’t hit the ball as hard but you know as a result put up some good numbers you just wonder like what he has
To do if he reverts back if he does that again this year what he has to do because I’m sure the goal is you know while I’m the age I’m at have one more Good Year and sign you know six for 180 next year and get out of this and
Because guaranteed Baseball’s all guaranteed money so I mean you want that one big contract it’s a pretty fascinating Pro it deal with the with a fall back for Bellinger that if he reverts back to hit a buck 95 he’s still getting 50 million the next two years after that absolutely and you
Know it’s uh it’s also too it’s it creates a know it creates a little bit of uh kind of a domino effect too now does he play first base or does he play center and that kind of depends on Pete Crow Armstrong you know enough to make
The team because if he is he’s the best defensive center fielder they have does that and that means that Bellinger goes to first which means Michael Bush is out of starting job let alone Matt mvis I see you Timothy ton they’re free Matt mous I’m with you on that um but it also
Uh you know it also kind of like screws like Michael Bush um and it screws like Mike talkman I guess to a lesser extent and the other guy that everybody’s talking about already because it’s been one Spring Training Game and he Homer twice is Christopher Morel again you
Know this is 2.0 Christopher Morel hype maybe. know while we’re at it but um got gotta think he’s okay for regular at bat still right but you’re right it pushes just another spot that it pushes around right yeah because if a righty comes up a righty comes up you’re like oh you
Gotta play Bush you gotta play uh you know if P orar makes the team then maybe Morel I think that uh my guess would be that c Armstrong probably starts in there’s a lot of lefties here K Armstrong’s Lefty bush is Lefty uh mvis
Is Lefty um so yeah uh it just you know it it kind of crowds out Morel and wisdom I mean they’re kind of you know batt you know butting heads for some playing time there and Morel you know if they if the G Cooper like makes the team
They’re going to play him at DH or some first base and there against lefties too so it it get complicated pretty quick yeah and Morel is a terrible Defender still so P Nick Madrigal is still part of the picture too so but you know what good teams have depth you know you want
To build you know if you’re a real life team you want you want these problems whereas Us in fantasy we want oh there’s a clear nine guys you know maybe 10 if you want to do one platoon we’ll allow that for you but you know please you
Know give us clear definition my Reds our Reds are always saying that uh you know we’re always saying that about them like we want a clear path to playing time for all these guys but it doesn’t exist that’s that’s not the way we you know the way the world works you just
Have to kind of trust the talent Wheels out sometimes well it sounds like Jonathan India suffered a bit of a setback with his planter fasciitis he has no games for two weeks so that that that question may answer itself here at least in the early part of the Season
Yeah that’s true uh um I uh Al although the people he’s competing with are are are also dealing with that Matt mlan has got the uh has got the oblique injury uh Noel Marte is going to debut next Saturday in spring training games apparently so we’ll see I mean that’s
The way it’s the projection they they said they’re slow playing him a little bit there so I hope that’s correct um it’s funny how we talk about there was a glut and all of a sudden there there’s nobody to play yeah uh so it’s it’s definitely something that we’re going to
Have to still watch a little bit there but as far as the Reds go I mean there there still those issues there they’re still going to exist India is supposed to be this super maybe not Super Sub but Omnibus sort of guy the Tony Phillips if
You will oh good good A’s reference well good Oakland A’s reference when we when we used to be the Oakland A’s but that’s a good reference right there thank you I love I love TP he was he was I love that dude yeah and Red’s fans love India the
Team teammates love him and he you know his rookie year he was really good plus 800 Ops uh you know you know he he’s just been hurt a lot the last two years and he’s hurt now and unfortunately plantar fasciitis is something that you
Just don’t wave a w and say oh it’s all done now we fine yeah you know it’s it’s always going to be the back of our back of our minds the uh the A’s have won one World Series in now I guess it’s 49 years and Tony Phillips was the uh made
The play in the last play of the World Series yeah so we’re uh you and I are one our our our our teams our A’s are aed’s former A’s I guess former Al mul multiple wins in the 70s and one C right for both of them uh it’s kind of a
Similar path you’re right um it is um one other I had one other point to all this here um oh on the Reds so I did draft Marte in the 10th round on labor on Tuesday night and inros on strand at 132 I’m I’m happier with the inos the
CES price but um obviously um but you know I and I think that Talent will ow out I me candio is obviously the flying the ointment everywhere but I think there’s way that it works out that three all three of them play yeah I’m I’m I’m
Warming to noeli I think you’re going to end up liking that pick a lot I think he’s just goingon to he’s just gonna force himself into playing a lot I think the talent I think the talent just gonna win out there yeah I think so too and I
Love that he came up and was not over matched at all when he came up 20% strikeout rate and 123 play appearances I really like that yeah uh real quick a couple of pitchers uh I think we may have mentioned one of them last but kodai senga has the had
His PRP injection his shoulder today shut down from throwing for three weeks so you know I if you look at that that takes you to like probably latest March and then what six weeks to ramp up getting some games like we’re talking best case May 15th he’s starting and I
Would not bet on that at all um I’m pretty much just crossing him off draft to be honest with you in N FBC format seven man bench no I spot he’s I think he’s undraftable in a 12 teamer a 15 teamer maybe those late rounds you
Could take him with the thought that as long as you can you can drop him if you get get one set back you can drop him you get one thing of bad news I mean that there’s a clearly a non-zero chance he do some Pitch all year um I think
He’s a I think he’s a definite no draft in the 12 team or 15 team or maybe late just to kind of hold for some news if you’re drafting right now you know maybe get some good news in a month but uh I’m afraid this one’s uh not not gonna work
Out well I think you’re probably right about that one and it it makes me sad because I was kind of big on him this year to he was good for me last year too he was really important yeah huge huge K upside you know it’s funny though he has
Not been undrafted in a single nfbc draft yet I was looking at uh because I did it through today the last three weeks on his ADP and all 129 drafts he’s been taken lowest pick is 359 oh so one one from the end in a 12 teamer I bet
You there will be some 12 teamers this week he’s not get drafted on now that we know we have more of a timetable on it yeah I I I agree and I I don’t disagree with your conclusion by the way and I just I think 12 teamer like in round you
Know 26 27 28 you’re just passing up good players there and I’m not I’m not doing it there we’re in a 15 teamer at pick 430 like sure if you want to take a shot right now over a you know a backup middle or something like that and see
What the news looks like I’m good with that but 12 te I think you’re passing up twoo good of a player at this point for someone that you’re gonna hold on your bench for two month two months while you wait and like good players break out and
The 12 teamers always good players on the waiver wire I think he’s just too tough in that format yeah I think you’re probably right about that and I also think too that uh you know there’s different types of stashes there’s Prospect stashes there’s injury stashes there’s certain types that are you know
Def defined timetable type of injuries and then there’s arm injuries yeah and there’s pitcher shoulder injuries which is like really the key yes exactly and yeah and shoulder is worse than elbow which is still pretty darn bad um and because not only does it is it the time
Frame but it also really impacts Effectiveness too agreed um that’s a good segue into Kyle bradish who Yes sounds like the the the progress is positive if you read some notes he’s playing catch from 90 feet right now um obviously he had the strain UCL which he’s doing rehab for resting and then
Gonna try and try and make do do you consider him I consider him more of a draftable player right now than S I was that was precisely the question I was gonna ask you answer questions before you ask them Jee it’s a good sign I mean I’m I’m prevent you you’re providing SE
We’re doing Segways everything I mean you’re just like spotting dimes eating onions right now it’s great there we go I like it um bradish has gone undrafted in four drafts uh so far uh low low pick is 407 on him uh 125 out of 129 so it’s
He’s still getting taken in almost every single one of them and in fact he’s and you know I I obviously that ADP adps you know I have to go from the date of the uh report of the injury he could do that and I have I’m too lazy to do that but
You can do that if you so desire I just don’t want to do that uh but you’re going to see that it’s really a reserve pick at best I I I won’t do it one one thing I missed a beat on in labor is taking us some of those guys uh because
You do have unlimited iel spots and unlimited huge difference obviously right um It’s actually an advantage because these guys can when they come back you don’t have to fight for them on the waiver wire um so there’s some like someone like Ryan Bloomfield drafted and stashed reyce Lewis last year obviously
That worked out he hit yeah hit a few grand slams late to help that one out yeah single-handedly change the the cubs’ I mean the uh excuse me the twins’s uh Grand the bases loaded problem um just one Grand Slam at a time so there have been 22 online
Championship drafts in the last 10 days okay been drafted in 20 of those so that’s still pretty pretty thorough in a 12 teamer that’s ADP is 287 latest is 355 but two undrafted so uh there’s a 102 in there so maybe that’s a mistake
Or I tried to do it so there was no I saw some 7s before so I knew I was I was going too back too far I was we on the Fly here but it’s kind of the kind of when it came out um he’s mostly getting
Drafted late in drafts I think that that’s an interesting and a 12 teamer with bradish I think I would do it late because it’s one of those things that in a month that might look a lot different and if it doesn’t if you take him to 26
Round it’s an easy drop anyway so I think that like I think you’ll just know more in a month or you’ll know if he’s a hold and a 26 27 pick and the waiver wire is going to be good enough you be able to pick somebody up I just think
That in a month from now that news has a possibility to be better than sangos does yeah I I I you’re right with that for sure I had to make a decision today on a score sheet keeper League Al only um and I held on to uh bradish yeah Al
Only probably that’d be tough to let that go yeah but it does all it’s you get to keep 13 players plus six prospects in that one there um so it was basically bradish or Austin Hayes was what it came down to and I I can always redraft Austin Hayes I figured and if
Brad if it doesn’t work out well crap and but I’m also kind of on the upswing of a rebuild anyhow um which had a setback because I also had W Franco on that team and I’m not keeping him but uh that that was I’m just not going to
Comment Jeff yeah I’m just I don’t want him on my team you don’t have I mean I I don’t think we can yeah you don’t you can choose not to comment that’s fine but that’s that’s a fantasy baseballwise in a keeper League that is a horrible
Loss yeah it is it’s horrible for the Rays too I mean theying um yeah and for me like just talking s bradish like I just think shoulders freak me out a little more than the elbow form does obviously the elbow form could blow up too but man shoulders just oh shoulders never work
Out well no they do not so uh that’s news there’s a lot of like you know tweaks and guys read a couple days I didn’t want to hit many of those it’s February 25th I don’t think we need to worry about any of the any of the you
Know five to seven days kind of stuff quite yet as we get a couple weeks longer if those linger we’ll definitely talk about those but let’s get into closers and uh starters it’s going to be uh be a fun chat here first a note from our sponsors though at Fantrax Fantrax
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Trcks the home of fantasy sports so Jeff let’s go closes we’re gonna talk about some names but I want to talk about just like the general pool first it’s interesting that um I just uh I went by I just did nfbc ADP the last three weeks
I just kind of picked a date uh in that moment there are no uh no closers going in the top 50 Deon Williams and Edwin Diaz are just outside of the top 50 so a little bit different than we’ seen in Prior years where there’s like a couple
Uh I think we said hater and Hendricks maybe in the third round a couple years ago but there’s been a couple guys that sneak into there I remember drafting Jordan Romano in the fourth round last year then closers if you do those 50 to 100 if you start with Devon Williams and
And and Diaz right there the right there their low 50s there are 10 guys from 50 to 100 so that’s a that’s a big range when most teams are getting their their their one guy maybe someone gets two but most teams are get their one guy then
100 to 150 there’s eight more and I’m kind of cheating there’s uh there’s two right outside the top 150 so I’m just going to go if I go 100 to 155 there’s there’s 10 more in there so that’s 20 closers right there through pick 150 and then it totally falls off there’s no
Closers in ADP going till pick 199 after that so between 155 and 199 there’s not a closer on the ADP list it’s it’s pretty wild so that’s 18 in the top 155 which means you know there’s going to be you know you think everybody gets one and then three teams get two that’ll
Move around a little bit there be five teams that have two a couple teams won’t have one yet um but it seems like there’s uh you got to get one in the top 10 rounds for sure yeah it you do and I want to get one towards the back half of
The of the top the first 10 rounds is the way I’ve been trying to do that so far um I I I don’t want to be setting the market on closers I I I don’t think that’s such a great strategy I mean I think you look I think we’ve talked
About it year and year year in and year out yes it’s great to have your guy but it’s also the cost of acquiring closers for the impact they have on the all allaround standings it’s not worth it never is if you use any sort of valuation system it’s not you’re not
Going to get return on value uh you might get the points that you need you might have that comfort and not spending in Fab I get the back I get why people do it I just don’t think it’s a good play and I definitely don’t think it’s a good play to get
To yeah I top if de wouldn’t go two in the top 100 maybe two in the top 150 if you know it kind of fell right my theory is either go with what you said and kind of get one of those those I think it’s
Eight guy I guess it’s 10 guys to go between 100 and 150 get one of those unless I can go fifth round and get uh CL Yan Duran or Camilo Deval I like all those in the fifth round their adps right now are 63 65 and 69 I don’t like
The tier after them that goes like six seventh round I don’t think I want to go a fourth round closer if I get one of those three in the fifth round I’ll do it otherwise I’m going to kind of jump down back to round eight or nine and
Kind of drop drop one of those uh 100 to 150 guys yeah that’s that’s where I’ve been Landing is I I have a lot of Paul sea Wald so far for instance I have some Alexis Diaz I don’t mind getting Pete Fairbanks although I it’s a little
Scary leaving him on on an island as your as your as your sole first top 10 round closer it’s a little tougher doing that but that’s why he goes there yeah um is for those reasons same thing with Evan Phillips same thing with andrees Munoz but seaw Wald I I feel pretty
Comfortable that he’s my guy there I I I don’t feel too bad about his job security whereas the others maybe it’s a little shakier um they all after even in the top ones but they all they all have warts so like I can argue against I can
Argue against any them which is kind of wild how few of them don’t have ws and even like you know Edwin Diaz missed all last season like I I think I think he’ll be great but like there’s a there’s a giant butt in that if you take him in
The in the fourth round yeah and he’s on average right now barely ahead of Devon Williams as the first closer taken sight unseen basically leap of faith but uh uh it is it’s you know and I can I could acknowledge I’m to be wrong but I also
Think that just I I don’t think that’s the way I want to build my team uh give me let me give you a little other background here so I’m working on my closers article right I mean not closers article but my pitching categories Target article um not my closers arle I
Don’t do that Ryan rof does that good stuff check that out on rotowire.com pod I did that earli today jefff as I was working on this smart guy you are yeah um in 2021 you needed 70 saves to get to the 80th percentile but in previous
Years it was a lot higher since then I remember I remember like mid 80s was always my target for many years right and it stabilized in fact last year was slightly higher 73 last year for the 80th percentile but still I mean it it’s you you really need two closers
Basically um it used to be you needed three or two and a half and now you need a little less than that I feel like even 50th percentile which a lot of people were fine with you know you needed 58 I mean that’s I was ask you what that
Number was that’s uh you could piece your way to 58 if you have one guy you can piece together to 58 pretty not easily but you could do it you could do it it’s attainable yeah yeah um so we talk about specific names all all the
Guys in that range here in a second but I just to kind of the general uh you know I mentioned there’s a big gap then you have Jose Alvarado at 199 and you got 20 two more picks down to Alex Lang so there’s just it’s a dead zone like
150 to 220 there’s there’s 155 to 220 there’s one closer in there so like it’s just really weird and you know as we get to the main event season 12 draft you know 12 team online Championship you know that gap’s gonna get smaller because people there gonna be a couple
Te that don’t have a closer after wield time they’re going to push alvado or Lang up two three rounds like you just know that’s coming you know that’s going to happen because there’s going to be a couple teams are panicking and they’re going to have to make sure that you know
They don’t want someone take Alvarado as their second guy before they get the first so you know those guys will move up a little bit but I want to ask you about some open-ish situations too there are a lot of teams where we don’t know who their closer is um the World Series
Champions you know the Rangers like we think it’s hosle l clerk his ADP is 225 but David Robertson’s there uh the Angels signed Robert Stevenson he’s actually a higher ADP than um than Estes who was the closer last year and has been already said in Spring train that
He’s like he’s the established incumbent guy and he is gonna get the first shot um Stevenson’s 80ps 245 EST as 282 so just tells you what people think Stevens is obviously a really really good pitcher and that tracks how it’s gone in my drafts too by the way um it’s
Definitely been Stevenson before estas in some cases estas drops really low which I think is noteworthy he dropped really low last year too by the way Scott because he was terrible in spring training terrible what he have had 30 something saves right yeah I mean he he
Was like one of those huge scores for people there because but again the price was right that’s that’s the whole thing like if it doesn’t work out you get him in round 21 okay cut him yeah it’s fine but if you spend round 15 pick on a guy
And he doesn’t get it it’s like if you spend a round 12 pick on a guy and he doesn’t do it now it’s a real disaster and Stevenson’s around 16 guy right now so that is a that’s a starter that’s a good player that’s a your fifth six pitcher that’s your middle infield
That’s your fourth outfielder um he’s got to save some games I mean I know his his K toalk last year was was over 30% K minus walk which is an insane number his K rate was 38.3% last year Nick he was incredibly good but if you’re drop in
The 16th round he’s got to get some saves he doesn’t have to be the full guy and get 40 saves but he’s gotta get some saves for that to yeah it’s amazing that Stephenson and Jeff Hoffman are former Reds that just blossomed in other organizations but uh yeah anyways that’s
Moving on beyond that it’s not like the Reds were the only ones that whiffed on China to develop Stevenson the Rockies did um you know and then the Pirates did as well was on the Rockies too right what’s that Hoffman was on the Rockies too right yep absolutely wow so the Reds
And Rockies both had Stevenson and Hoffman yeah both yeah yeah it was it’s really bad it’s really bad other situations uh San Diego is is is open I mean that’s a team that I I know they’ve lost a lot but like you look at their win total it’s about 500 so it’s some
Wins there Robert Suarez 80ps 258 uh Yuki matsi is 327 there was a lot of uh Yuki matui uh gifts on on Twitter over the weekend he had a really good first outing I always love the February Gifts of pitchers cracks me up Kansas City’s wide open you know they’re trying to win
A little bit Will Smith has been signed there you got John shriber James MacArthur like I don’t think we know what’s going on there Washington has Kyle finigan ADP 274 Hunter Harvey 331 we’ll get to Hunter Harvey here in a bit uh big Target for me if he gets anywhere
Near pick 331 yeah I’m I’m a little annoyed at Kansas City because MacArthur was my sneaky guy got him again I I was bidding heavy on him in XFL didn’t get him but I I was forcing Doug Dennis to pay for him a little bit at least um I
I’ve gotten him in a couple of drafts so far and now they’ve added Will Smith they’ve added shriber I’m like okay they’re not you know that that shriveled up I’m still taking MacArthur by the way I’m just taking him a lot later now I assume that the door opens
On opening day they a lead it’s Will Smith for the first save I don’t assume anything there I mean if you had to guess though like that would be your first guess depends on match ups is what you’re going to say maybe I mean Will Smith could just get torched in spring
Training he was actively bad at the end of the year last year um I I don’t think he deserves that incumbency benefit but then again he is a proven deserves I would agree I still think he gets it deserve ain’t got nothing to do with it yep all right
Three other teams that are wide open there’s a lot of teams that are wide open the Rockies are open uh Trevor Kinley and Justin Lawrence um you know kind of who good luck there heart yeah white socks is wide open too we got John breia who’s a little banged up uh prel
Lander baroa who has the best potential closer and waiting name it’s a great name uh Garrett crochet is there oh someone else just mentioned preand bro in the in the in the chat uh Garrett crochet is obviously there he was uh he was really nasty before he got hurt I
Remember he got hurt I think in that playoff the co playoff against the a that game was over he was not gonna give up a run and he got hurt the only reason A’s ended up coming back and winning that game and then speaking of the A’s
Oakland is wide open too I know there’s lot of Mason Miller buzz and moving him to moving into reliever at least probably gets the first shot but like he’s thrown no Innings pretty much throughout his career like anywhere um I know no is an exaggeration but he’s very thrown very few Innings very
Injury-prone um he’s gonna be the the Buzzy guy there if you take an open closer but man that Situation’s wide open too absolutely that’s what what is that one two three four five that’s eight teams I listed out there that we don’t know who the closer is that’s a lot that’s that’s
What that third 28% of the league something like that yeah and the thing is uh you know you mentioned like the Padres the Yuki metui struck out the side against the Dodgers and then he got scratched on Saturday it’s like uh you know it’s just
Like H can’t we have nice things can we just just for a second you know at least but uh they have it’s a three-headed monster in San Diego too that but that’s one I’m want to watch because I think all three of those guys are super talented yeah there’s just some of the
Situations will be kind of mix and match and and committee all year but a couple of them will be will’ll have guys that end up sustaining themselves and becoming the guy and those are the ones uh those are the ones you mentioned Estes last year you I know he struggled
Late but if you took Estes and got those saves that was a huge win yeah it was it absolutely was and uh yeah I mean that that’s all we’re trying for um the problem is though like when you draft those guys that the the the guys behind
This shaky guys and they don’t get the job how long can you hold out how long are you going to hold them and that’s why like strategy I always hold too long as to answer that question it’s a mistake I always I always hold a couple
Weeks too long it’s just it’s a roster spot you miss someone especially this first early weeks you’re picking up breakout guys you’re picking up guys who are getting playing time you’re picking up pitchers who threw well you can’t miss out on those guys because you’re holding Ronaldo Lopez on your bench
That’s that’s a good name I don’t I I don’t know who would have done that last year but maybe that’s a good example that was it sounded very specific but uh I’m I’ve got I had I was doing the same thing with Scott turn your head and mcof
But uh you know oh God I had a lot of I had a lot of him too oh way too long cuz he even got there was a moment there was a moment there where like this is be this is a great pick he’s going to be
The guy and just it’s it’s good yeah um didn’t last didn’t last long yeah it didn’t last long um you know I I I I think it’s it’s GNA be tricky and we got some uh Cubs chatter in there as well so we we’ll talk about that too as with
Alay we have that in our list of players to talk about I think let’s uh let’s talk about some players I think we kind of hit Edwin Diaz already but um do do you I mean how do you feel are you pretty secure that like it sound like he
Could have pitched the end of the last year I mean it’s so long that you got to think it’s okay he’s come out 50% K rate but he hasn’t pitched in a year like that has to be a factor you would think so um it’s not an arm issue that’s the
Good thing huge uh he had no issues after throwing a bullpen session when he first started throwing says he’s ready to go this was like a week and a half ago two weeks ago so so far so good I mean I I think if he’s if firing at the same velocity in
Spring training I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t be there and it’s just the problem is there it’ll probably go up especially when you start talking Main Event you know that the inflation’s going to kick in at some point in time um so I’m probably not going to be there
For him even though I think he’s probably legit really good I’m just I just don’t want to be the guy that takes the first couple of closers yeah you you can see some command issues early too I mean I think he’ll be really good but I’m probably not doing it that price
Either but where do you come in on Emanuel CL a lot of sa last year but definitely was not the not as Elite of a pitcher you know he was under a two ER and a one whip for the two years prior last year he was 32216 strikeout rate I don’t think crash
Is an exaggeration 28% to 21% is a pretty big drop for someone that is uh you know considered one of the dominant closers his walks were up a little bit swinging strike at right fell over 3% down to 13.4 uh he was still really good but there it was definitely not the dominant
Guy we saw the two years before they still had 44 saves um fast ball still 999 miles hour did fall down a little bit but uh where do you feel where do you fall on CL a I I still think he’ll be really good but uh there are some
Concerns from last year there are uh and a new manager too this year we you know so does Steph vote change how he uses his Bullpen at all or is is like the institutional memory of class getting every save is that going to continue because he essentially got every save
Chance you know except for maybe a few times when he wasn’t available whopping 12 blown saves last year 12 that’s that’s a lot of blown saves Scott it was a lot of blown saves I remember I remember them for sure it just they felt like he has a couple
Stretches there we couldn’t just could not convert them but uh yeah I mean his whiff r fell in a slider over 10% too uh I’m afraid of him I’m I’m actually not I think that uh the price dropping a couple rounds from last year um he was still the the the
Managerial change is the one thing is you said it kind of freaks me out a little bit cuz I if he just pitches like he did last year and gets every save chance I’m in for that like that I can deal with a few blown saves and some
Hiccups there but yeah the the manager change worries me but I uh I still like him in the fifth round someone might be willing to take him the fifth round yeah um yeah I don’t know I mean still despite all this like he still only walked uh 16 guys last year and that
That’s nice but I don’t know dude I mean it it’s more that I mean he just got hit a little he got it’s almost like was this a babit correction was it a stuff correction like you talked about the command issues in the fewer bab was bab
Was up 70 points it was uh it was really low the year before bar is still good it was still 5% so you know and ground ball was still really good he went down but he was still 55% ground ball guy I think there’s enough here like swinging strike
Rate 13 and a half% I know was down still really good number you know not that not Elite for a closer we’ll see some bigger numbers we talk about guys but uh I think he’s still going to be really good maybe not elite elite but I
Think he’s going to be really good and where he goes in the draft you know a round and a half after some of those guys I’m willing to jump in yeah okay well that that could work for you um it could I don’t know man you know he gave
Up a ton of unearned runs too um in the past I I blame his fielders for all his problems though yeah I do too I I and I blame you a little um I’ll take some blame yeah go for it there but oh I I’m going to downgrade him just a little bit
Actually I feel a little less comfortable with him than I thought I would be all right we talk through these guys right yeah and I like when we don’t agree on on players too that’s uh that’s good makes but then again if he’s a top five closer I’m not probably getting a
Top five closer so that that that also works let’s jump down to that the next tier and here’s a couple guys I want to talk about in the in the ADP of the 80s so you’re talking a six middle six round late six round pick the first is Jordan
Romano who was utterly Elite the first half and anything but the second half he had a 14% walk rate in the second half one four year a whip in the second half you probably remember I think he got hurt like during the All-Star game like
He was about to pitch and like he maybe he was just never the same he was never healthy again um you know the K rate was still great over the course of the Season as was The Swinging strike rate 17% uh ground balls fell a little bit uh
But it just you home runs were an issue fast ball was still consistent but just the command in the second half was really rough and he’s a guy who gives up a lot of fly balls so you don’t want that’s a really bad combo obviously walks and then fly balls like that bad
Stuff happens there um you know he’s uh he’s really low you look at stat cats everything’s really good except for the walks and the ground balls um how much do you trust that the second half was just injury related do you think there’s a problem here 80P is 83 which bakes in
The risk because last year he was in the 50s he was a I took him in the fourth round around at 80P last year so it’s the only reason I remember where he was so 30 picks down but you know obviously there’s some issues but it’s 30 picks
Enough for you to take a jump take a jump here yeah I think so I I think it is I mean it’s a back issue which are tricky because they do recur um yep at the same time I as long as it’s not it’s a lower back injury it’s not an upper
Back so it’s not shoulder that’s the one thing I was kind of worried about the velocity didn’t drop either that’s the other thing I like about it so I’ll probably go back to the well here and the other guy in here that uh is kind of
Lines up very well with Romano is Alexis Diaz who had a really rough second half also his second half was a mess you know well as a Reds fan 46 ER 527 FIP strikeout rate was down 177% from the first half and second round 37% in the
First half utterly Elite 20% in the second half you know not a horrible number but not pretty bad number for a closer walks were up to 14% the second half he was just bad in the second half there are a lot of things see that that
Did not go well fast B velocity was down a little bit um you’re the Reds fan do you think he tired he obviously they used him ton um what what do you feel about his second half because he was really rough down the stretch uh um it
Was the last month also I think that’s worth noting it wasn’t like the entire second half was really bad it was so after September 15th against the Mets he had an outing where he went an inning in two thirds at that point in time his
Ratios were 210 and 103 he ended at 307 1119 after so if you think about that there in the comp the course of five outings and his next two outings were an inning total and they gave up 7 ear runs yeah he had a 24 RA in his last five
Outings and that just tanked his his ratios he was fine before that I think he just wore down um and I think that it was just because the Reds were just they were sucking for air they were just hoping you know you know hoping to hang
On for deer life because they were just gassed their whole Bullpen was just you know Bullpen the rotation well this the thing is their starters were going three four Innings at a time and they and they were just running out of people they trusted too um they they didn’t add at
The deadline except for Sam Maul um it was fine by the way um but when he was he was a former a yep yep and I now the question is did they do it was there any lasting damage done I don’t think there was I I will say too
Though that this year there’s there’s a little bit more help in that Red’s Bullpen uh they they did go out and get Amelio Pagan although of course he’s he’s banged up to start spring tainting this is never great uh they they added Brent suder who I think is sneakily
Going to add a lot of innings which is something that will really help there uh the thing with by the way Pagan is he’s recovering from sports hernia surgery it’s not an arm issue there uh I think Nick Martinez is going to be like a hybrid starter reliever type point is I
Think they’re G and they have TJ Anton back and he’s a sneaky guy I’m gonna get excited about so I he uh is he ready to go start when when is he when is he back because I he said no restrictions in spring training he’s fun to watch I
Remember a couple years ago talking about him maybe closing he’s fun to watch did you know TJ Anton’s 30 though oh I wouldn’t have guessed that I would have guessed 27 yeah uh he he got a little bit of a late you know late he
Was a bit of a late bloomer uh didn’t make the majors until he was 26 uh so that that’ll do it and then he lost an entire year last year too so uh almost two years he didn’t pitch at all in 2022 and he barely pitched last year
So yeah I’m excited about him at full capacity though I think he could be really good jumping down a another round round and a half we’ve got a chunk of guys kind of in the 100 to 120 rain just a few guys I wanted to mention and talk
About uh we’ve got Paul sewald 104 we got Andre Munoz his replacement at Cent and sadle when he got traded 114 you mentioned earlier Pete Fairbanks about 116 80P then Evan Phillips at 121 um in this range it sounds like you are a you’re a seawall guy but who else do you
Like in this range I mean I I I I I’m a little aware of Munoz for two reasons one the durability and two the manager I I worry a little bit about the usage there in Seattle they do have Alternatives they and you have uh you
Know they’re kind of like the uh the Rays have been in the past too where they’ll use multiple people including last year even after the seaw wall trade Matt Brash got saves now Brash has banged up they added Gregory Santos he’s out right now but you know that that’s
Something to watch for there too it could be a case there where it’s only Munoz is healthy which is kind of scary but uh Santos is coming back from a lot and Brash has arm issues so they may not have too many obvious guys and in fact
They traded away some of their Bullpen dep with in with Minnesota in the palanco trade too they traded away uh Justin topa who was actually really good last year so maybe I should be more optimistic about Munoz I don’t know maybe just but I I I do worry about his
Own durability a little bit there I worry about the durb a little bit too but I do uh I do like M because I think you think he’s one of those guys that could be a a dominant type of guy I he was dominant in 2022 38% strikeout rate
6% walk rate the walks were back up last year to 10% that’s kind of the key for me if he can like even split the difference on those just G me like a 7 and a half% walk rate you know with the K rate over 30% I think he could be
Really good the Mariners should be a above 500 team you know exciting young team I like him I like the ground balls too he’s a 59% ground ball guy last year you give me 30% strike out and 59% ground balls just you you stay out of
Trouble with a lot of that just you know as a closer one-run lead you know takes three ground balls to score a run whereas one Fly ball caus you problems the the injury last year was an ankle injury I that makes me happier than it
Was if it was an injury maybe he was never fully 100% but he’s still pretty good I just think ADP 114 if I don’t have a closer yet in the eighth round I’m grabbing Munoz for sure I I like this price on him yeah and I actually I
Like the Fairbanks price too yeah he’s right they’re right next to each other yeah I I I think Fairbanks was treated differently than the previous couple years now obviously Fairbanks diff you know you’re worried about durability with him even this year I’ve only got him projected for 49 Innings which is
Going to obviously cut down on his safe chances if that is fulfilled but he the Rays kind of demonstrated they trust him uh and you know Jason Adam exists and he’s good um and they they they’ll they they rebuilt Robert Stevenson they rebuilt Jake deakmann they’ll do it
Again this year with others I still believe in Fairbanks I think he’s a guy that is GNA get more than your average raise closer yeah I think I mean he’s got a ton of I mean a 37% strikeout rate last year like there’s a ton of upside
The uh the durability with him worries me a little bit and the walks Waring me I think that the uh the 3.4% walk rate in 2022 is clearly an outlier he’s he’s double digit guy every other every other year of his career so I think the the
Walks always scare me as a closer but he strikes out so many guys he probably overcome that another guy with a lot of ground balls which I like too so at least if you walk somebody you’re not g him the two- run Homer right after it um
I think he works really well there I really like Evan Phillips right behind that at 121 this is a range that I you know I probably W end up grabbing a guy in here um there’s uh there’s some talk that Dave Roberts seems to be leaning
Towards him being the main guy you know not all the guy but at least the majority of them which we haven’t seen Robert say uh you know recently probably since Janson was there another great ratio year 20583 whip in 61 Innings like a lot of innings for that number that’s a really
Good whip uh the K toak is really good K minus walks like 23% um has has had a really low B the last couple years so maybe he gets a little bit of correction there it’s like under 230 last couple years but I just think he’s really good
The stat cast page is pretty much all red you know he’s over 90th percenti on x um ADP 121 on the best team in baseball potentially um I don’t need to get all the saves you give me 75% of the saves I think he smokes this ADP yeah uh the
Only problem is like graterol is there and is amazing good yeah really good no doubt uh fire risen too maybe I don’t know or something like that uh it it’s just I remember kind of banging my head against the wall because he’s so good and you know and he’s still got 24 saves
24 saves won’t kill you with that price it will not and I do think he gets more this year but I’m not going to argue the fact that yeah there’s going to be times where the bullpen door opens and grat all comes out or Joe Kelly
Comes out or Ryan brazer or fire risen you mentioned yeah there will be situ Blake Tran’s back you know back from the dead 36y old Blake Tron I’m not too worried about that but was a stud a while ago I I do think they will mix it
Match some but I do I think Phillips gets a uh a good majority of the saves yeah by the way Germaine to like the Dodgers and maybe the Mariners earlier there uh Anthony jaldi uh had a great question uh do you believe in handcuffing closers on a 15 team 30
Round team uh you know and the two examples are Seattle and Tampa Bay I I do if I know those are D2 guys um unfortunately like the Rays it’s usually like eight guys um and so I’m not inclined to do that as often um what about what say you my answer to that
Question is only if that second guy is a very late pick I’m not using there are some there going be some closes waiting who are round 16 17 18 19 guys I will not do it there I’d rather I’d rather actually take a take a closer winning on
A different team because if I’m gonna be in a contest with overall contest and I want to hit on my guy then I want to hit on my backup guy working out also right so I’d like to take the chance of getting two rather than maybe holding on
To one and like you mentioned there’s a lot of teams that the first guy gets hurt and it just kind of opens up to a lot of guys I think that’d be the problem even in Seattle like Brash is a lefty so maybe you know they mix a match
If something happened to Muno you mentioned T Bay like there’s you’re right there’s eight guys I think that if Fairbanks went down it would be eight guys again um so I don’t unless it’s a clear guy that I really like the skills that I can grab in the very end of the
Draft where I can drop him very easily I don’t want to have to I don’t want to have to hold on to someone while my closer stays healthy yeah uh I think that’s a fair point um and you know in a zero some sort of mentality too you’re
Hurting somebody else if you’ve got their closer too so that love I love doing that you love taking a pick and soad the guy who has the starting closer just kind of gives you a bad Lu it’s always a good forther what it’s worth Jason Adam is his 80P right now is 395
So he’s not 12 teamer he gets he does get him in uh the in 15 teamers and J correct me Brash is a righty who am I thinking of this Lefty it might have been topa I don’t know toa’s gone though so I don’t know who was I thinking of
That Seattle had a guy that was really nasty who was a lefty good question don’t know the answer I do not know who I’m thinking of I appreciate that thank you for telling me that Brash is righty so uh yeah so maybe he but you still have Santos there
Who they who they traded for so G Spire maybe Sao I was not thinking of gam Spire it’ll come to me it’ll come to me someday and I’ll it’ll be I’ll be somewhere where I’m not on the not on the air and I’ll pop in my head it
Wasn’t topa toa’s right by the way yeah yeah it was someone I’m thinking of I don’t know who is yeah uh before we get down to the to the bottom of the barrel the uh the guys after uh round 150 uh talk to me real quick about Klay Holmes
Uh had some hiccups and I kind of thought when I dove into him that be like I don’t really want any Kay Holmes but I was actually kind of impressed when I looked he was still really good last year I kind of remembered him being worse than he was it’s it’s funny how
That pops in our head uh 286 117 in 63 Innings uh K rate was a career high 27% the walks were up a touch just under 9% so he would like to come down a little bit but me Elite Homer rate he’s just a huge ground ball guy so it’s not
Surprising 65% ground ball guy a lot of hard contact which scares you but then you look at the barrels and they were under two and a half% last two years he didn’t give any fly balls like he’s just all his hard hit balls are on the ground
Which you like to see they’ve got they should have a good infield in New York um you know vulp is a really good Fielder uh so bab will always matter for him because you hard ground balls but at ADP 135 um if I waited on closer till
Then I’m actually good taking a shot at him in the you know the end of the ninth the early 10th round uh more solid than I would have thought I I did not think I’d be in on holes I think I am yeah um sure for sure and you know the thing is
Second half he is deployed like a real closer first half he was wasn’t you know he still only had like a 54 and a half I’m reading in our Outlook 54 and a half team save share but almost in the you know and keep in mind the second half
There weren’t as many save chances either so because the Yankees 10 true yeah um so yeah I I’m okay with him I’m fine with him yeah I don’t I don’t want to go into a draft hoping he’s my number one but I feel like he’s a good like oh
Boy I don’t have one through eight I’m gonna I need to get somebody that he’s he’s the guy that I would grab and I think that I think he has the job I me loasa is good Tommy conlay is good uh but I think that he’s probably the
Guy at least to start and you know that’s all he come on Hope for yeah exactly real quick on some guys that go late I do want to get into starting pitchers here in a second but Jose Alvarado is about I think he’s 199 when I did it the last three week something
Like that right in there he’s really really good but we’ve got a situation where we I don’t think we really know what Philadelphia is going to do there was uh it felt like he kind of took over the job earlier in year then he got hurt and then he kind
Of took it over late but then he never really was the guy I think he only had he didn’t have that many saves just because he got he was he was hurt a bunch of the year he only threw what was it 41 Innings last year had 10 saves but
Dude is just nasty 37% strike out rate 15% swing strike rate the K the walks are always an issue with him they always thing was him with Tampa Bay like they kept him from really being the guy was always the walk issues U but Philly didn’t bring in a closer uh maybe they
Mix it match because he’s a lefty but it’s not they brought someone in to really take over you mentioned Jeff Hoffman before they traded for Gregory stto last last year um Sir Anthony Dominguez is still there you know I think that we’ve done that experiment already can I Victory lap another Sir
Anthony Dominguez Fab pick up there no please that’s so I drafted him last year oh was terrible um and oron Kirker ring I know gets a lot of a lot of love for people that like this stuff ining Ryan roof our closer guy likes yeah he’s a
He’s a he’s a gif a Twitter gift specialist also how do you feel about avado is you know you’re you’re in this range you need a second closer um I think he’s my favorite of the guy guys and the you know that go in this range I
Mean he’s awesome yes you know he just can’t stay healthy and he’s got the left-handed bias against and just Rob Thompson just doesn’t settle on one guy it seems like to me and it and it was an elbow last year too which is it’s not like he tweaked a hamstring or an ankle
Like it was an arm injury the timing was terrible too um just taking that job yep and just and it was a point where we couldn’t stash really because it just wasn’t worth it because he didn’t know what the usage was going to be like when he came back they were obviously pushing
For a stretch run and they didn’t treat him like a pure closer down the stretch either he got some saves in September um and that was nice he got one two three four saves in September that’s not bad but it’s not like oh he’s definitely the
Guy either right yeah I mean the price reflects that I think if he was definitely the guy there’s no you know he would be 70 picks early or something like that but um if I get stuck down here he’s someone I like how do you feel
About Alex Lang he’s one of those guys that is a um is scary because he walks so many guys the the walks are scary but he’s kind of the appears to be the guy I know Jason Foley is there Andre Chaffin is there but it looks like Lang is at
Least he got start he had a 15 and a half perc walk rate last year I know the strikeout raate was pretty good he’s a huge ground ball guy which helps he uh and all that but man that walk rate is that walk rate probably scares me away I
I he misses so many many bats that it’s almost sometimes it’s like worth stabbing to see if he could just improve just by a notch right if you you give me like 9% walk rate the guy is suddenly really good yeah and that’s the thing that’s the thing that I’m kind of afraid
To pass him up in a way sometimes I’ve actually taken him a couple times because I haven’t had my second closer and he’s kind of just always there for you um but fley I mean fley could be the guy too although I don’t think fulley is anything oh
Jeff disappeared so uh hopefully H will be back hopefully I’m still here um oh now’s Jeff’s back yeah don’t did you delete yourself I did it to myself I uh strling back and forth between Safari and chrome one got the I don’t I don’t get into it but don’t hit
The keyboard back shortcut there when you’re not sure that’s amazing out of the podcast for a second there you’re mentioning you’re mentioning Foley I just FY strikeout rates under 20% like he’s just not someone that I doesn’t really doesn’t really excite me he’s going to
Be so much that’s so hard to live that way you know that’s true and the thing is I’m not really I don’t really not big on fully but what I am not I think what is noteworthy is that if Lang isn’t getting it done it may not seem like
There’s an obvious guy but there’s always a guy there’s it only takes three outings where he walks multiple guys you’re like I we’ll use anybody else at this point right uh it could be will vest it could be Shelby Miller Miller that’s right chelby Miller’s there yeah
Um it could be whoever doesn’t make the rotation you know the Tigers have really legitimate options in depth in their Bullpen I inan their rotation right now uh Sawyer Gibson long just had a groin injury so he might fall behind in winning the job battle in rotation but
What if that means they just want him in the in the bullpen later on um and that’s a path to development sometimes too you know they’ve got seven starters scuo MAA flarity Olen M Manning and Ipson long and if you want to count F I guess that means eight but any of those
Guys could go to the bullpen and all of a sudden be lights out yep I’m old enough to remember when Trey wiger was a trendy guy for a week last year wow that was a name I have not thought of in a long time it was last year was last year
It was last year I was sitting next to Phil Doo and he was like all over Trey wi genter um he also dominated me in the league that was that was when I drafted the 700 Club team so um that’s that’s what I get for sitting next to Phil so Tim Anderson
Forever uh yeah Shelby Miller 0. n0 whip last year in 42 Innings yep the the 165 babit might have helped though might have might he he was forc oh I guess he only threw seven in year before yeah 165 B is pretty wild um real quick couple
Names what are you doing with Mason Miller in Oakland do you have any interest here um they’re moving to the bullpen mostly is a way to keep him healthy I think it’s very clear that uh you know kind of similar to AJ Puck although AJ Puck the the Marlins are now
Moving him to starter but uh having trouble staying healthy as a starter um the stuff is ridiculous he throws insanely hard it was uh it was fun to watch him pitch in his 33 Innings I mean he’s really nasty obviously a big upside if he closed all year even a bad team
Like I know they’re over under is like 55 wins but you know maybe they win 65 and Mason Miller closes that would be a huge Boon 80P is 242 so like a 16th round pick uh what are you doing with Mason Miller right now uh for those
Watching this is what I’m doing I’m throwing up my hands I don’t know um I I don’t I mean everybody loves this stuff and obviously not throwing as many innings is good for him because he’s never been able to throw a ton of innings uh but Max effort also there’s
Risks involved in that there’s there’s inherent risks and having a guy max out all the time and that’s what he would be doing as a closer plus there’s there there’s your former A’s are going to win like seven games this year so there’s that also so it’s uh it’s a real I think
On the extremes the problem if they win 58 games obviously it makes it really tough uh I just think he’s getting hurt again I think I think the point you make about Max effort like even though he’s only pitching one inning like he’s going to be gassing it out for those one
Inning he didn’t really strike out that many guys in the majors last year 33 Innings as a strikeout rate was down to 11% I know it was a huge number throughout the minors but he’s thr like 30 innings in the minor or something like that like there’s just no way to
Know what we really have I just think in the 16th round I’m probably picking someone else I like there someone else I really like in another position and I’m probably just sucking up if he ends up being a great closer then I’ll miss it this year I don’t think I’m doing it
Draftking sports book has the A’s at set they over under total at 56 and a half now um so is that crazy like they’re expecting them lose what is that 107 games or something like that yeah well I mean if the Dodgers and Braves are going
To go over a 100 and you know Dodgers are projected at 103 and a half 104 and a half in some places you know something else has to give it’s not just the a it’s the Rockies eating what’s the who’s the second lowest team do you have it up
Still Rockies eating paste in the corner as always uh like 64 something like that 60 and a half fanduel’s got them at 59 and a half actually oh my gosh yeah white socks are down at 63 and a half uh we’ve got a tool uh if you’re into
Sports betting there where you can kind of find your you know find better win totals here and there for at least three Sports books at least um I and it it’s the lesson here is shop around get you get your best price if you can um but I
Think it’s another year of extremes Nationals are at 66 and a half and I’m not super pessimistic on them although I did look I think they I think they go over that I think they over over that number yeah it’s just the rotation so damn bad that’s the problem
There excellent segue Jeff last close I want to talk about uh is Washington okay um there are some injury concerns with Hunter Harvey of course but man I love the profile his ADP is 331 that’s picked round 22 he someone that I’m going to take right before the break so 19th 20th
Round uh 23% K minus walk Lash year um 11.3 swing strike rate is not huge but good enough to get some strikeouts um he’s pitched 6 and two3 last year like he was healthy all of last year uh Kyle Finning is not someone that scares me as
An incumbent H nice ground ball bump he’s up to 44% I think he has the makings of being someone that could be pretty darn good and with zero risk on the price yeah um yeah he Harvey missed four weeks last year with that right elbow strain um but
That Wasing job was frustrating because Harvey looked like he was about to really take over and then oh there goes finegan getting some more save chances there Harvey didn’t get a save after August 25th last year which is the thing that’s a little tricky even though he was pitching the whole month of
September yeah I and I think that there’s always a risk they just stick with finegan but I think uh I think it may take a while for it to come around but I think he’s getting end up closing for them for a majority of the year yeah
Um so and if it’s you know three weeks in he doesn’t he doesn’t look any close like you always drop him but uh I think of the guys going after 300 he’s my favorite guy you’re not gonna take him in the 19th or 20th anymore because
Someone will take him in the 18th in yours because you have that sort of power to move I just screwed myself didn’t I yeah you did yeah you done right I did it last year on Ronaldo Lopez and it just screwed everybody else that that’s true self-included unfortunately but yes let’s uh let’s
Talk some starting pitchers we’re gonna go I think we’re gonna go a little bit longer tonight just because we got a lot of stuff to talk about yeah um there’s some guys I want to talk about in the top 150 that are that are pretty interesting uh real quick on the top uh
I don’t want to talk about C rer I think we both think he’s awesome what do you do with Garrett Cole ADP is 15 another Elite year 26398 point. N8 whip but there are some there are some issues here his K rate dropped 5% swing strike rate fell near
To 3% it was under 12% last year um do you have any concerns at all about Cole with the strikeout drop last year well now I do uh I didn’t before uh but then see the thing is I haven’t been in position to draft him yet I for lot for
Goodness enough I I have been drafting early yeah irrelevant to you then because you can’t you’re not gonna take him at three and he’s not gonna come back around to 28 or whatever but if you’re at the even like pick 11 12 13 14 15 BEC comes in the mix either in your
First round or coming back around in the second round uh he was still awesome last year I mean but 263 point is still really good but it’s funny look at his stat cast page it’s good but you it’s not like Garrett Cole dominant he’s uh
You know K and the K and walk rates are both are 70 percentile but nothing nothing’s over 90th percentile so there’s a lot of really really good but not great great and if you’re the first round you obviously need to get great great he’s obviously really really good
Um I haven’t decided if I took him in the F middle of the first round last year and it worked but uh I’m up in the air whether I’m gonna take him at the end of the first round this year it’s kind of funny that last year was his first sa
Young it is kind of wild when you think about it that way yeah I would have thought that was a second that his first one huh you’re right Yankees were terrible yeah um he started to show some decline but but it’s also nobody else challenged you know stepped up to
Challenge him either I think that’s the thing it was if I if I’m remembering the you know because Otani got hurt as a pitcher um not that he was necessarily gonna challenge as the sa young I’m trying to think of who else would have challenged for the alsi young last
Year I don’t remember who was second yeah I yeah I I that and that’s the point um so I think he almost won it by default and let’s let’s face it still 27% strikeout rate is his lowest but it’s still pretty good still really good yeah everything I said is still really good
But he’s got to be awesome to be your you know a first round pick over a over a Bryce Harper sh Otani all those guys in that range yeah yeah um so but I’ve seen a lot of Otani Harper pairings on the turn that’s what uh Jenny did and
Labor um had her on on the Thursday podcast she did great uh she’s a great player too yes she is yes she is I I saw that combo in another draft too uh so it it’s a common combo and the thing is I I don’t mind a lot of the pitchers you can
Get at the end of the third round so if that’s the case I’m gonna probably take two hitters one to I mean you’re you’re probably getting some sort of combination if you’re lucky Pablo if you’re in a non Bloomfield League you got a chance at him uh you’re looking at
Zack gallon you’re looking at Yamamoto uh Tyler glass I don’t think any of those guys get the end of the third round in Main Event well yeah and I’m actually I’m still yeah I’m actually like in at that’s 40 42 43 and 80P so even now you’re barely getting there
Yeah maybe I’m not as comfortable now that I’m looking at there you’re going scoo ball Eric Erin no there’s there kind of a gap there if you’re at the end of the third round and gallan Yamamoto Pablo Kirby go is it like a there’s a there’s a big tear drop
There I guess that’s where you shrug and say I guess I’ll take a closer um I’ll start the closer run um there go or you just take two more hitters yeah that’s also possible is that what you would do if you’re stuck on the turn yeah it’s
Funny you say that because you’ve got to I think I would like if I was stuck on the turn I just take two more hitters and and P I’ve done that multiple times and then you just got to make sure that you know five six seven eight you’re
Probably taking three starters and maybe pushing your Clos a little bit further but I would go uh I just go the extra two hitters so yeah if you’re doing that then your first starter is somewhere in the range of great ASAS Rodriguez Bobby Miller Yuri Perez Zack
Effin three of four ain’t bad Lardo maybe um but that’s your you gotta take you gotta take three pretty quick if you’re gonna do that I think yeah I don’t I don’t think two pretty quick you got to take three and then you gotta have a plan for closer in there too
Somewhere um but I mean but you’ve also got you’ve also got four hitters to start your offense so there’s right it’s always super fun to start with four hitters if you can do it it is it is I like going three hitters ear early like
Uh I I when I had did scarf when I was drafting second I went three hitters helped that Lindor fell to me at 29 nice yeah and then I I did semi in because I always do semi in there um and so you start off with that base and then
It kind of opens the door to doing whatever you want with pitching later on yeah I’m always I think you know a key to a draft is being willing to um being willing to to mix and match I think you’ve got to be able to not to that’s
That’s knowing the playing pool is the key to me is that you just I think you have to know if you get stuck with something what do you do uh Sunny gray was the second and sunny gray was second I saw young voting by the way Kevin Gosman third Kyle bradish
Fourth yeah um interesting that gray finished ahead of Gosman but it just shows too that Garrett Cole unanimous by the way all 30 votes I was just gonna say he lapped the field pretty much I mean again we like to say that win loss record doesn’t mean anything with those
Things but he was 15 and four that meant a lot well he L LED Le and ER didn’t hurt either yeah and innings pitch and whip yeah Innings pitch also I mean that’s one that’s underrated like Sunny gray had a great year but he doesn’t
Throw a ton of innings yeah he did last year but normally he does not uh that I I did not I would have lost that bet coming up with the the second S I did not know sunny I love Sunny gray he was good last year but I didn’t I didn’t
Know he was second yeah but and he did throw last year he did throw 184 but that’s still a parse SEC behind Cole there that’s pretty wild you probably win a lot of bar bats although not anymore because everybody has Google on their phones but uh Sunny gr has two top
Three say young finishes in his career that’s wild yeah he was third he was third one year on the when he was on the a yeah so a couple of names you mentioned in that range in the uh the kind of the 35 to 45 range uh George
Kirby and Zack gallon how do you feel about those guys I’m gonna let you go first on these guys um I there’s always someone that likes I love Kirby seems like someone always loves him a little bit more than me um does the does the low K rate for a
For a you know a top stud like this how much does that wor you at 23% uh it doesn’t if I know that I’m getting a ton of innings I’m getting great ratios it’s the Logan web prop issue I think I like I like put it this way I
Like getting Logan web around later and getting a very similar pitcher I possibly more Innings I just I love I love kir I love watching Kirby the 2 and a half% walk rate is just the the dumbest thing out there it’s like if he walks two guys in a game you’re like
Oh my God wrong with George Kirby yeah um yeah 100% it’s 100 percentile on stat cats it’s always it’s always fun to see that but man I just he just doesn’t get swing and Miss on his on his secondary and tertiary pitches the Sinker and the
Slider he gets 28% whiff rate on his fast ball which is a a pretty good number as you look at you look at Stags you look at fast balls like that’s a really good number just those second and third don’t get that you sometimes you
Take 30 40% some of these guys with the with the with the whiff rate and uh the ks did jump in the second half maybe a sign there he was 25.2% in the second half uh it’s funny because the K just get up a little bit he would he would
Smoke this price because the whip is gonna be really good because he never walks anybody right and I love that and whip always gets overlooked I feel like too but I like that too um and what and I’m I’m more talking myself into the price now well the price is fine but
I’ve been in drafts where he goes higher than that I I saw him go in the middle of the second round in the draft so yeah I think he’s gonna be a two three turn guy in Main Events probably yeah and I might be okay with that I I might um yeah
To answer Uncle ched in to answer Uncle Chad in the chat why there’s there’s you know why people take pitching early these dominant guys are huge anchors it’s a strike it’s the strikeouts and the ratios it is it is hard to find guys in 15 teamers late in drafts and there
It’s it’s hard to find guys in the waiver wire a couple anchors make a massive massive difference uh and and take a look at the correlation between like the top finishers in the NBC main event and how they did in the ratios Brian slack was top five in both ra and
Whip last year that’s sick I by the way ra and whip correlate very well with each other too by the way and it’s hard to find good whip guys later like they just you get guys that everybody’s got some warts later they either walk guys they don’t strike guys out they just the
Guys who strike guys out and don’t walk guys just they’re just not many of them and this is where they go yeah uh that’s right and so many times we play in not you we talk nfbc that’s our primary platform that we talk about the most but
We we play in others too um yeah for sure if you play in a League well that that might be a little bit different than how you treat starters you know I play in an Al only auction League where our whole league discounts starting pitching a little bit and it’s always an
Adjustment you know it’s an auction League too and that’s that’s part of it too but you know you get starters on the cheap there I might get Kirby there because I get him at a reasonable price where I don’t get him in the nfbc uh I I
I I mean the thing is what if Kirby does enhance his secondary option off offerings and get like 27 yeah 27 strikeout rate like it is filthy nasty like top three top five pitcher guy yeah um and and that the thing is you know you you want to yeah you want to avoid
Having to stream too often you want to have to you want to have your base there too and unfortunately you can’t get your base in the 19th 20th round these guys are too sharp that you’re playing against you think that they’re your sleeper um oh they’ll never see I’ve got
I’ve got Tanner BBY nobody’s talking about him everybody talking about him every starter I like in the 1920th round goes four rounds late go four round earlier in March every time there just there’s none of that everybody sees the same stuff and you Joe McHugh in the
Chat mentioned uh you know if you’re streaming pictures like streaming pictures in a 15 teamer sucks it is impossible it is so you can get you can find some guys you can be good at it but it is so hard you see streaming articles on a lot of sites that are really good
None of those guys are available and some in these in these 15 team leagues they’re so deep is hard to stream pitches and you get a couple blowups in there and suddenly you’re chasing ra and whip the rest of the way yeah uh it’s really frustrating um and the thing
Everybody reads the same stuff you know we all look at the same oh he misses bats with this yes missing bats that’s you know DDD update from 2005 missing bats is good you know you know it’s one of those things that and the thing is you don’t need you know it’s like why
Draft this guy when you can get this guy five rounds later because you need both of them yep you need and two more be beyond that you need to roster nine pitchers every single week and good luck trying to keep up in wins and KS and
Ratios and all that if you only have a you know a whole lot of late round guys and and guess what these guys get hurt too the younger guys that are sneaky guys they throw hard and oh they’re very attracted well half of them are going to
Get some sort of setback at some point in time yeah and there’s obviously we mentioned before if you want to go four bats like there are definitely ways to win you just have to address it pretty quick but uh it’s tough where are you with Zack gallon this is someone that uh
I am am not taking in this range he’s in the low 40s um hard hit numbers were an issue um you look at the stat cat page on gallon it does not look like someone that’s remotely in Ace um he’s over like 70 percentile in one category that’s
Walks um and K he’s 71st um expect ra is 50th percentile last year expect bers 34 percentile there’s enough here as Ra was over four in the second half um I had him in a league he was really great for me until the end it still was really
Good but uh this is someone that I’m not taking in the third round myself I know that he was really good last year 347 1112 I’m scared enough of gallon I don’t think he’s dominant enough I think that it pick 40 on passing and taking someone
Else I think that’s fair the fact that he threw 240 Innings combined between the regular season and the playoffs is also enough to be uh a little frightening so I get it I could see choosing others in this range I think he would be good but not great and I need I
Need great at pick 41 yep yep I could see that there um again I haven’t been in a position to take him uh you know just the way it’s worked out uh but yeah it seems to me like this is a situation there where you might exercise a little
Bit of caution yeah we’re not doing the we’re not doing the Fades podcast quite yet but he’s definitely on my list okay the uh the Buzzy 2024 starting pitcher winner is probably uh Tariq skubal uh he was uh really really good last year and then uh really good late
Too uh you know overall 28 280 ra 0.90 whip in 80 Innings an incredible strikeout rate for a starter 32.9% four and a half% walk rate it was a it was a crazy 80 innings for scoo ball he got he got really hot was really good the K
Rate was middle 20 percentile percent in the last three years and then it jumped up this year so you got to figure out you know how much that is real sing strike rate was 15% so it definitely matched there uh everybody loves scoo this year stat cat page is filthy It’s
All Bright red we talked about gallon like his T page blows away gallon both his KS and walks were over 95th percenti last year which you don’t see in many pictures that is a rarity right there ADP is 54 so he’s middle of the fourth
Round I think he moves up a little bit more in Main Event season uh where are you on scoo ball who everybody loves this year I heard he just hit 117 on the radar I feel like every time he throws a pitch like it’s it’s 20 gifts about he threw
101 I think the only question is can he throw that many innings in maintain that his Effectiveness um we’ve seen it in a shorter sample we’ve seen it maybe against lesser competition these are fine things but you know you know I I I I don’t think it’s fully dispositive to
Say okay he hasn’t done it thrown enough Innings but I am concerned about the durability uh but I think he’s I mean I him or Aaron Nola to me is like an interesting debate it’s a fascinating debate because it’s one guy that’s gonna throw 200 innings every single year he’s
Made 32 plus starts last five seasons against the guy who threw the incredible 80 Innings with the huge upside and you know I just it’s a really interesting thing because they’re right next to each other in ADP to one’s 55 and one’s 57 yeah um and so who do you take in
You’re in the middle of the fourth round you’re G to take a start or which one do you click I think I’m gonna take scoble I would have told you for sure I was taking Nola until I dug in deeper them I think I’m taking scoble too yeah
And I would have been like oh bounce back Nola over the uh you know the hyped the younger guy who came off the season um but I as I look deeper I think that uh I think I would have gone scoble there too I think that uh middle of the
Fourth round of V starter is just it looks really good uh there are risks there but it’s good and uh someone mentioned Yamamoto was a starter in the fourth Yamamoto is not available in the fourth he’s he’s going the third round by now I think he’s 0p is uh 0p pi 43
And likely to go up so he’ll be a third rounder in the main event um yeah Nola stack has P just okay he’s good at like walks and Chase rate but all the hard contact metrics were bad last year hard hit rate was was 92% all the year before
And dropped way off so maybe he corrects that he was bad with guys on base too he only had a 21% strike every already went down with guys on base maybe he was not as good out of the stretch um I think the ADP on no is about right but I just
Don’t know I mean that’s two of three years where ER is like in the mid fours yeah yeah that’s true uh um yeah you can’t say like oh nol has never heard you that’s he he hurt you last year definitely I mean given the cost it K took to get him
Um yeah I think I I I think I would take uh I would I would take scoble over him and because Nola is what like late second early third last year yeah I mean team context Nola’s got on a better team probably although I think the tigers are
Going to be better than I think the tigers are going to do this year what people thought they were going to do last year um I think they going to get because I think they had some significant breakouts last year and they will be a better team uh but and they
Have a better ballpark but Philly is still a better team period better run support um all that but a tougher ballpark tough you know Citizens Bank ballpark is actually kind of a sneaky tough place to pitch too and the noas K rate fell like three and a half percent
Last year um I know someone Anthony Jo me the chat look at scub Ball’s opponents I know he faced like the drags down the stretch I do get that y um I probably will end up with neither of these guys were being fully honest in
The range but if I had to pick one I think I’d go school and that surprises me because I would not have said that two weeks ago before I before I dug in a little bit Yeah Fair uh a couple of uh young studs here kind of in the end of
Fifth round early six I want to ask you about we got Grayson Rodriguez and Bobby Miller um Grayson was obviously not a great line overall but you know if you look deeper a lot of his problems were early on his ER was 45 whip was 134 but
258 RA in the second half in 76 Innings uh k rate really solid the walks rate a little high at 8.2% but under 7% again in the second half after he was demoted for that stretch time he came back up was really good swinging strike rates
Over 12% um a lot of really good stuff here um where are you on Grayson you look at stat page not great but a lot of that’s the first half again 80P 73 Bobby Miller is 80 do you have a preference between the two where where do you kind
Of follow with these guys with obviously the the huge yug upside stud guys I think a small preference for Grayson but I can’t really tell you why um not because I’m trying to about a five six turn and take both of them that that’d be pretty uh sexy that’s for sure um
That would get that would get some oo and O for them room which is usually not a good thing yeah yeah I I I really like I don’t want to spoil but I really like Bobby Miller a ton at the price yeah that’s good um I worry a
Little bit about durability for both of them but every young pitcher you worry about durability every young pitcher every pitcher you do but yeah definitely every young pitcher you definitely do yeah um I like that you’re pairing them I think that yeah because that that would be a fun
Pairing it it’s I think you could do because like if you’re on the turn you’re picking like you know around right before 75 and right after 75 you could do it um the thing I like with Miller he threw 124 Innings last year 376 11 10 that’s a really solid rookie
Year the ks were only 24% but much higher numbers than the miners I think that the strikeouts are going to come a little bit you watch his stuff and I think that it’s pretty clear the strikeouts are going to come at some point you you watch him up close he is
He’s filthy throws really hard what I like is the walks were really good for his first time it was a 6.3% walk rate gu 80th percentile in major league pitchers that qualified like that’s a really really good number um really nice ground ball guy too he’s 47.7% I love
The ground ball he move up the strikeout a little bit this is a really good combo um you know his expected ra last year was 81st perc on his rookie year um he was better in the second half as he kind of figured stuff out 336 ra the walk
Rate dropped 3% in the second half I love everything here someone in the chat mentioned they probably won’t see the sixth round I agree there I think both these guys will move up a little bit but uh both targets for me I think I Target Miller a little bit more I really like
Miller when I when I dug a little more I think the durability you mentioned is the main problem I think is I think when he pitches he’ll be really really good and obviously on an elite uh real real team too we’re talking about a lot of guys that are gonna rise who’s gonna
Fall hitters boring veteran hitters yep Paul Goldman eighth round you know there there will be some of that I me you look in this range um but not everybody can fall I mean look at Nolan Jones Mado Mike Trout Bellinger niiko hoer all those guys are the guy those guys Wall
Fall a little bit as these pitches move up that’s just guys in that range Matt mlan will fall a little bit um yeah he already has because he already has because he got hurt UD he got picked in the at pick 103 on Tuesday night William catras JT real Muto gold Schmid good
Call right there almost in this range schwarber all those guys will fall back a half round or around as as as you know move get pitchers and closers move up a little bit yeah makes sense because you get locked out of him you’re just going
To be in trouble you’ve got to make sure you get some but I uh Miller’s a guy that I’m targeting a lot more than I thought I would when I when I when I kind of dug into him a little bit too y are you gonna make a bigger uh emphasis
On getting that second starter or your first closer second starter me too yeah I just I think it’s so I think the second starter so key um last guy in this range who’s also a young stud guys is Yuri Perez in Miami uh great debut with the
Marins last year 315 113 and 91 Innings through through a total 127 Innings last year like a pretty good um chunk of innings there between doublea and the majors strikeout rate was 29% his first time through the walks a little bit high 8.3% but again as a rookie I don’t think
That’s a that’s a huge concern swing strike rate is 15.7% um Jeff this guy’s nasty yeah he is yeah he is they’re already talking about limiting his Innings though which freaks me out off the board yeah yep um everybody I mean 120 plus Innings is actually not that
Bad I know that’s what I thought I thought like we could get 150 if there would seem normal right yeah I mean would with 100 how much how many innings does he need to throw to justify that price I think that’s the question you always have to ask yourself
140 consecutive right not this middle of the Season shutdown crap that we had Oh I thought you meant like 140 like all in all in a week or so yeah yeah that would be a record we did a in high school we did a 100 inning game uh charity event it was actually
Really fun all pitching machine pitching them okay I was just wondering how do you yeah and then you hit you go through you hit you you hit for five innings and you go play the field for five innings okay otherwise you go off on every would
Take forever but it was kind of it was a fun it was a fun event but um I I think 140 probably wors this price ADP is 85 we’re talking like late sixth round again a guy who might move up a couple spots but we talked before we talked
About Kirby like the the secondary pitches maybe not the the whiff rate this is the guy that’s the opposite of that he threw his slider 31% of the time last year 47.7% whiff rate his whiff rate is curveball which he threw less his third most popular pitch 54.3% this guy’s
Breaking pitches are insane um I think that he gives up a lot of hard contact over 10% Barrel over 40% hard hit rate so that was uh it’s kind of the one uh one black guy on the stat cast page but uh ADP feels about right it probably
Move up a little bit but you got some downside think that the Innings is a problem the hard hit’s a problem but there is so much good here that he’s he’s really fun I kind of lump him in the in the Rodriguez Miller tier here
I’ve only got him for 133 Innings is my issue uh yeah and that’s I think that’s the that’s the problem right there which is probably means I’m not gonna get him and he’s he’s some of Chatman pointed out he’s he is 20 he’s really really young yeah so it actually makes sense
From uh a real life standpoint to manage them like they’re doing yeah especially because I don’t think they’re going to make some crazy the same improbable run to the playoffs that they made last year um they’re probably contend it’s a tough division but they’re probably like wild
Card contenders for a while at least right so I my I was looking at win totals and they’re my favorite fade right now at 78 and a half yeah that’s I was going to say so that’s right around the 500 what were they were few games over they were
Probably W like 84 85 last year right they outscored they were outscored by 57 runs last year um did you take the under the second they signed Tim Anderson I was I was like hey well that doubled the number of players they signed this offseason that’s the that’s my real
Problem is they lost El Contra to injury they lost Solair to free agency yeah um and they’ve added Tim Anderson uh they’ve added Christian bethan Court um and they’ve added Trey Mancini that’s it that’s the list you’re not counting Sixto Sanchez in the ads no he was already in the
Organization I’m kidding oh I I see what you did there uh okay got me no because he hasn’t pitched in multiple years it’s kind of adding him on but I don’t think AJ Puck as a starter I’m not quite buying braaton Garrett is hurt right now they’re they’re wild because like you
Look at their starters and they could be awesome or they could be a disaster like that there’s there you could see paths both ways right I mean I I mean Perez and Lardo I like both fine Garrett I like his skills but he’s already got shoulder issues I don’t like that Trevor
Rogers who the heck knows Edward Cabrera just walked six guys just who the heck knows too like he was hyped last year and I watched him a lot and he just he’s frustrating watch he walks everybody yeah talk about a whip killer right there I mean yeah I just I I can’t
I can’t but you can also squint and see edri being really good really quickly so I’m saying that you could there are ways they could be really good or really bad his walk rate last year is 15% yeah that’s the eye test did not fail me
There yeah um and 144 whip tells the story there pretty pretty effectively I would uh I would really like six to to make a run and get good again I I loved him when he was pitching back was that 2020 when he first got called was that
The co year I think he got called up weeren 2024 now he’s pitched one inning in in doublea since then four years I would love to see him do well this year by the way too that’s right he was someone I loved and never walked anybody
Got great command i l 6 he was like a big Target for me when he got called up I just I loved everything about him it sucked he’s been hurt for so long yeah well didn’t he have like maturity issues too like they they essentially kind of
Suspended him if I recall correctly I believe he had something in there yeah but he’s 25 now maybe we’re going past that I would I’d love to see him make it get it back to the majors for sure yeah it’s been a long time since he got
Traded from the Phillies to the Marlins though it’s been it was a l it was it’s crazy how long it was was that 2018 yeah he’s 25 already this year and no I have not seen six’s body question the CH chat have you seen his body no I haven’t um
He does he does not he looks like he needs to work himself into shape we’ll just put it that way okay yeah um a couple of interesting names in that both broke out last year kind of in the 110 range we we’re GNA cover a few
More names here and then we’ll jump out of here I guess we’ll go three names in this range we’ll go kind of one 105 to 120 Justin steel Cole Reagan and Tanner BBY um do you have a strong preference between the three I feel like they’re kind of grouped together steel was like
You know kind of out of nowhere breakout guy Cole reagin kind of did the same thing uh but he was kind of a stat cast darling and BBY was obviously a Hu a big prospect that everybody’s getting fired up when he got when he was gonna make
His debut last year how do you feel about about these three guys BBY it’s definitely BBY for me love him and he’s uh he’s the last by ADP he’s 10 picks after Reagan and uh steel yeah and I like steel too and I like Endicott steel
But uh I got that one yeah thank you I I knew you would um I don’t work for pitcher list so I’m not required to profess my love for Cole Reagan at this point in time I mean I Cole Reagan could be amazing he could be
The best of the three but I just worry about that control in the background there I just that that that’s what keeps me off of them the fact he’s on the Royals probably also keeps me off them a little bit for the price I mean I inherently trust the Guardians and I
Inherently distrust the Royals yeah the walks were the big thing to me I was actually surprised I like steel more than I thought I would when I kind of when I kind of dug into him a little bit you 15 113 last year but I I
Kind of looked at when I kind of thought he was just you know a guy last year that got a little fortunate the badup helped but home runs are an issue um a lot of fly balls is kind of the big thing he has a 25% ground ball rate I
Like to see that number a lot higher than that but a lot of lot of hard contact but it’s slider really good um what was his uh his ton of ground ball I’m sorry he had I was looking at the wrong guy he had a ton of ground balls
Is what I meant that 49% ground ball gu so like you take that the swing strike was 11 and a half% so maybe a few more strikeouts from the from the 24 and a half% he cut his walks in half if that’s real he’s just kind of really really
Solid I didn’t expect to like this profile as much as I did but I got closer and looked more if that walk gain remains I think he’s gonna be really really solid again I know he’s do throw hard but like that’s the only thing in stat cat page doesn’t look good is is
The fastball vo and if you do everything else well I can deal with that yeah uh I I agree I mean and don’t get me wrong I’m not anti-us in steel I’m just Pro Tanner BBY um I think that’s more where I’m at with that and and Gavin Williams
I love too I love I like Williams more in the future I think than I do this year but I still like Williams too but I like both of these guys get give me them both yeah I just uh I was I was impressed by still I think that the
Walks are the key because he was just he would had a problem those first couple years and then they they did come down but yeah I do I do like BBY too I mean ADP is 119 I think that’ll probably come up a little bit but I would definitely
Take that another guy that gets a lot of whiffs on his secondary 32% on the slider 38% of his change up he dropped his walkway in the second half would you like with the young guy too I kind of like all three of these guys but uh go
Steel BBY Reagan sounds like you’re BBY steel Reagan yeah and hey they’re they’re in labor Reagan fell and I’ll take that wow I did not didn’t I didn’t think he would fall anywhere it was surprising how much he fell he he fell to the second to last pick of the ninth
Round in a 15 teamer so that’s pick 134 yeah I I wouldn’t expect that very often you’re right every every draft you get a little bit different but um yeah his second Reagan’s second half was 31% strikeout rate was just nasty oh yeah absolutely and if if that’s sustainable
At all then that’s that’s Grand and that was Jenny Butler Again by the way so it’s Grand Theft Reagan and I get that there and that works out great yeah his his K rate whiff rate XC and xbax batting average was all 80% higher on stack guys like he was he was really
Really good MH I like all three of those guys I think they all three guys that I would take I think that you got to rank him you got to figure it out but uh I would have thought that I would have BBY first but I think I think I like steal a
Little bit more um last couple guys here before we jump out we’ve gone quite long but we kind of were going to do that uh guys in the uh the 140s uh hunter green is your on your Reds so I’m gonna let you talk about him and then Michael our
Reds our Reds Scott come on but you’re you’re the Reds expert so I’m going to you Hunter Green’s tough to figure out because you look at you watch him pitch you’re like oh my God this guy’s insanely good but then you look at the numers without looking at that y has
Have been 444 and 482 he pitches in a really tough ballpark to pitch in and he has a hard contact issue 43 and a half percent less year 9% Barrel um the babit hurt him I do get that but uh he just uh he throws a lot of fly balls and a lot
Of fly balls with hard contact is scary in that park it is it is um I I want to look it up to kind of confirm my uh like the get the data behind it but hunter green to me always is like oh first three innings he looks
Amazing Innings four through six not so much um so you think that’s him tyer guys like figure out once they see1 the second time through it’s a little bit better I think it’s a little bit of the ladder because he’s you know he’s playing around on like you want you want
The numbers learning new pitches and all that uh yeah tell me if you have them at your disposal first time through the order ra of 2.49 uhhuh second time through 6.53 oh third time through 6.46 hey yikes the FIP also it matches that too FIP is 255 461 697 respectively
Xfip 299 453 509 so slugging against is over 500 second time through the order yeah um that that’s bad I hear your uh your feeling on that was uh freaking dead on that was pretty good so what do you do with him it’s a 10th round pick
Obviously I mean nobody’s saying if he’s a second overall pick he throws 101 miles hour like the upside is insanely good but we’re not drafting the fanasy league that we’re talking about right here here we’re talking about you know a redraft league the K rate’s been over
30% both those years uh what are you doing here in the 10th round do you there’s gonna be a next step up at some point do you trust it to be this year I haven’t been there yet let’s put it that way um it could it could it happen it
Could happen especially if uh he’s working on a splitter which is this year’s uh sweeper um oh the the the Frankie monos breakout was the splitter too yeah uh there and hey guess who he has teaching himit oh that’s right right Cincinnati oh yeah nice could I remember
You and I you and I having breakfast at Italy talking about who we’re going to take for sure we both said Frankie Monas and it worked out well yeah um hunter green I’m not quite there yet but I want it to happen I wanted to be there um
Probably not going to pay that price uh I’ll go with the other guy you listed for me he was like the opposite of Steel in that as I dug in more I thought I would like green a lot more than I did and I think I think he scares me that
They probably not taking him ADP unfortunately really fun yeah and you don’t really want to take pitchers that early and when they pitching ballparks that you don’t like yeah when especially a guy with a 34% ground ball rate there are a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard
Contact was 43 and a half percent last year it’s really a lot all his hard contract metrics were under 30th percentile last year like that is a this is a bad combo for Cincinnati yeah just so you prefer Michael King is what you’re saying I do tell me why
Uh San Diego first of all is a pretty good landing spot team white sure uh good landing spot in life uh I worry about durability with him uh obviously can he go how many innings can he truly throw that’s the downside I only have
Him for like 120 Innings I I could I I know our atc’s got him for 136 he threw 100 he threw 105 last year as a hybrid and then starting obviously started whatever it was the last he made nine starts down the stretch I mean the I the
The performance levels I buy um I like that he can use four pitches against lefties I mean that that’s one of the things I really like about that there um it’s a question of track record and the fact that he’s been kind of bounced between roles that’s the only thing that
Kind of is holding me back what say you so he made uh he made eight starts to finish the year last year 1.80 area the 48 to9 kok was a pretty good uh pretty good uh rehearsal for his starting in 2024 I like him I like him more than I
Thought I would um if you would have asked me before I looked into guys before I prepped you know hunter green or Michael King I kind of would have laughed him like of course hunter green is what I’m taking I’m with you I think I’m going king um even with the uh you
Know more more Innings last year and more more starts strikeout rate was still 30% walk rate you dropped down to seven and a half percent nice ground ball tilt he’s a 43% ground ball guy another guy with a lot of strikeouts a lot of ground balls uh durability is the
Only thing here I mean who knows what his body goes through starting but I like that he started eight games I think that’s enough of a sample last year that he got used to it he made all those starts his starts were pretty good I think he went seven innings in one of
Those starts he really against Toronto yeah he really he really stretched out well through seven and then six against uh oh six against Toronto oh they’re both against Toronto there you go the 13 strikeout game was against Toronto remember that one his one bad start as a
Starters against the Royals an he’s like see in your face um but I I mean I like I mean he pitched well against the Astros in that stretch he pitched well against the Red Sox in that stretch against the Brewers that stretch and that’s that’s not messing around yeah I
Think what I’d say is I don’t know how long he’ll make it but I think he’ll be really good while he’s out there and I think that uh and think he I’d probably go you get 130 to 140 Innings at this price I think it’s going to work well
Because think he’s be really good while he’s out there yeah exactly yeah that’s starting pitchers through 150 at least the interesting guys I want talk obviously there’s a lot of names in there but those are the ones that kind of I thought were uh interesting to talk
About anybody else in this range you want to talk about we feel like kind of hit a lot of people and got along time this way but anybody else that jumps in your head you want to discuss real quick no I don’t I want to anything else we
Can save till next week yeah so we’ll have uh we’ll talk some later guys in drafts next couple weeks I know that uh we’ve kind of hit a lot of guys in the top 150 as you’re doing the the brunt of your draft we’ll talk some uh some guys
After 200 the next couple weeks and other than that uh we hope everybody has a really good uh week here what is this end of February early March we’re getting into baseball season which is really really fun looking forward to draft talk looking uh yogurt starts tomorrow right Jeff it does what spot
Are you drafting from three I’m drafting five Z I think has got an early one too also I I forgot to change my KDs I would have I probably would have made it so I was on one of the ends because you know how um well I do in slow drafts but uh
Three’s close enough to the end that hopefully one or two we got we are quick there so hopefully hopefully it works out all right well best do I go uh do do I go wit or Julio or Strider I mean that’s for you uh you and your your your soul to decide but
Obviously one of them will be gone at the second pick but uh I I I’m Julio I’m probably Julio over wit if he’s there that I get that’s my order too I’m drafting five so it might be I might be striding it’s I if I was five and
Strider was there it would be a pretty quick click for me that’s what DVR did in uh labor and then he followed it up with Burns in the second so it was a very interesting start to his draft where they felt like Julio was disappointing last year he had 102 runs
105 RBI and he went 3237 yeah he he really crushed it like in August especially he did like it’s just crazy how the talk early was like he and he was struggling early but man he he made up for it big time he did indeed all right well uh we’ll we’ll chat about
That uh we’ll talk some deeper players next week hope everybody has a really good week thanks for listening thanks for watching thanks for all the the comments in the chat thanks to fan tracks for the sponsorship of the podcast all PRI and we’ll back at everybody next Sunday night take care
4 Comments
Max Meyer ?
Thank You Guys! Great Show!
Brash is a RHP fyi
Never played fantasy baseball before on yahoo, I Landed, Corbin, Burns, Yuri, Perez, Bobby Miller, Justin Steele Chris Paddock, who could be a reliever as well along with Josh hater Hurting at reliever too and I have Brian Bello is my guy that I'm probably gonna swap around all season