Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview: Course Overview, Odds & Best Bets

Andy’s back from Indy and ready to look at both the API and Puerto Rico with Ryan this week.

0:00 Introduction
1:00 Cog Recap
7:05 The Arnold Palmer Invite
9:40 Bay Hill Club
17:54 One and Done
22:17 Building the Model
48:40 Model Results
51: 40 Bets
57:24 Bonus: Puerto Rico!

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview: Course Overview, Odds & Best Bets

Hey everyone Welcome Back bsbs Golf here for two golf tournaments we’ll start with the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Bay Hill we will touch here on Puerto Rico as well back in the saddle after through a week off last week great to have him back Andy Moler what’s going on

Bud finally got to wear one of my hats I have a few for certain tournaments like we get to the 3M I’m wearing a hat you get to the players I’m wearing a hat but I did buy a uh I did buy a really nice

One for the US Open too just such a good logo like the little putter boy with the like very good logo but yes excited to be back fun fun golf sucked I didn’t really see the weather coming because I was was at the combine so I was paying

Less attention to golf than normally would the the weather kind of hit me as a surprise on Sunday as I was home like oh finally I’m gonna just gonna sit I’m done traveling sit down watch golf and oh [ __ ] like horns blowing like we’re done and then you really look at like

The leaders and how much they had left and like oh this is this is not happening we’re still in February the days are getting longer but or March rather but the day the days weren’t quite long enough so yeah Monday finish was fine they got it in plenty of time

Sorry to anyone who had Shane Lowry I think that was a good bet he played really well uh he looked mad I know you did I know you brought him up in the show he looked pretty mad about that water ball it’s fun it’s that is the fun

Part about golf it’s more fun when it’s someone you bet against but it is fun watching guys just lose their [ __ ] golf is hard we all do that on the Course once in a while just can’t believe we hit a shot like that so you know congrats to congrats to Neiman for just

Like Trucking people have to really start to think about like how much those wins matter because it’s it’s easy to see like oh he’s playing Just much better golf than other people and there’s some there’s some damn good players on live right now so it’s going

To be interesting the next five weeks as we we get a couple more Live Events we get obviously the whole Florida swing and get into the big one the big one is starting to loom I’m already seeing you know the people posting about getting the the package where they get you like five

Styrofoam cups and a half a qut of like egg salad for 100 bucks and people still buy that because it’s the Masters like if you want DM me I will mail you a whole quart of pimento I’ll make myself for less than the Masters and you can

Have your own masters experience but um yeah ecro let’s talk about a guy we bet a bunch last summer real quick I don’t even want to bring him up either he’s a guy bigger numbers and um it got a little dicey at the end but he played

Good golf too and I think this the story besides ekro winning or anything is really how how easy the course played when it softened up and they added that you know they added one stroke essentially to that that par five and it’s like [ __ ] man people are kind of dump trucking the

Scores well yeah I mean it was soft uh you know and changing BAS basically one of the harder part fours into what ended up basically being the easiest hole in the course definitely changed the dynamic of of scoring conditions there a little bit and uh you know the wind was

Never really a problem either and that’s you know some of these courses are designed for that um but you know that’s kind of the the lone defense and if you make it really super duper hard without it and that actually adds to creating the firm and fast piece of it all that

Stuff kind of is you just kind of stacks up against it and so it didn’t happen and it played easier and you know so yeah that piece like yeah we bet him relentlessly last summer that’s a little bit frustrating at the same time like I was never really considering Austin ekro

This week so I can’t be that mad about it where like I feel like this week I’m I’m kind of like Paralyzed by the board because I have a bunch of guys I like to bet on I haven’t bet on any of them yet someone’s gonna be left off the card and

That would be a situation where I’d be more frustrated it just you know this is was a great event we talked about I talked about it last week was like I was going to be lighter pre-tournament because I thought it was a a very just the nature of this event you can have

These drastic swings because of all the water that’s in play so you can have guys come from deep down the board EVR tried to do it because you not because anyone else got in trouble per se but just because like there can be scorable conditions if the weather is nice and

Yeah so that was tough the Lowry stuff was tough I mean you know I talked about him on the show last week he was 35 by the time like Wednesday afternoon came around he drifted out to 50 so I I took 50 pre-tournament added to my card and

Felt pretty good about it because just the course history Strokes game Florida all that other stuff that we had looked at uh you know through you know Twitter and some other stuff that we had put out there like he made a ton of sense the course history was nice the uh sleeping

In your own bed narrative and all that stuff so yeah I mean look winning golf tournaments is hard winning golf outrights is hard as well uh I told you like I don’t often consider the cash out option uh on Saturday evening afternoon iar Lowry on a Sunday AC Lowry on a

Sunday on this side of the Atlantic is yeah I mean a Monday I guess but same same thing and truthfully too like my final point is it’s not like ekro was the last guy off the card right or the first guy off the card I I wasn’t strongly considering him with this field

So that is congrats we’re happy for him it wasn’t ever going to happen for us I I didn’t feel that much fomo um the the newsletter play got that was a fun one to track like I had Kim I had Fitzpatrick over Kim at a dog price okay

And it was just three rounds of you know every six holes they’d fotp flop who had the lead and then Sunday Kim just shat himself like it was glorious Fitzpatrick played very well ended up I had cam young as my oneandone and most of my one

And duns okay um it would have been nice to see him make you know like six more putts that were very makeable and win the tournament but getting a top five win the leaderboard looks the way it looks was pretty nice all things considered for one andone I’m in several

One and duns where there’s a fair amount of people in it and no one has picked a winner yet like no one has chosen obviously like I bet a lot of them are that way like nobody has picked a winner yet but uh maybe this week maybe this

Week it’s gonna be a big name let’s get into the Arnold Palmer Invitational you want to kind of talk about the differences we’re going to do this a few times this year and we’re going have to differentiate between uh the two kinds of Signature Events because this is one

Of the what three of the eight where we actually have the cut right yeah they’ve protected a few of them I know you know tiger wanted that they said they did the same thing for for API here so we do have really small Fields like this was a

Signature event last year with a reduced field of 120 and now we’re down to 69 uh players in this field we have 54 of the top 55 eligible players committed feno taking the week off surprised fow is not down in Puerto Rico I could see him

Doing something like that but yeah we we do have a scenario where the cut is set after round two for the uh low 50 and ties and then we also have that same element that we had the old like Augusta rule we had actually at the Genesis as

Well yeah if you’re within the 10 shot uh of the within 10 shots of the leader you continue on as well so we can have a scenario I think we had like maybe 15 or so guys get chopped at Riv I think we probably it just it could very simar

Yeah so like no I I hearken back to that tweet Somebody went back and looked at Riv and be like how many people would have made made it through in this cut and normally it was just like you know 50 to 60 guys and then one year it would

Have been like 72 people would have made it you know just once in a while there’s going to be some compacted scoring I don’t think it plays to but again it is going to be hard to get cut here not great if you get cut here yeah

Especially if there someone gets out to a nice early you know Thursday Friday and kind of runs away a little bit that that’ll I think increase the cut line so uh you know definitely you know tough to make uh make the cut bets here you know probably something that’s more relevant

For DFS sake because you know you you’re probably gonna have more sixes sixes and to have a scenario where you’re kind of drawing dead with uh you know maybe a four six or a five or six is going to be a tough well yeah there’s there’s I’m

I’m not uh proclaiming it to be a DFS expert in fact I’m horrible at it but you do see that where you know guys have a five of six cash decently you’re not going to win but you can you can find cash if you really nail your five

Doesn’t feel like it’s that kind of week where you know like there’s GNA be just such a huge amount of six of six compared to a normal week based on how how oh yeah you’re dead you know how big of a like you’re just dead like just

Stop looking at those lineups at that point so yeah you’re going to need like the top you know your other five are going to have to be all top 10 and you’re probably still a little bit dead to be honest so yeah so we know we’re continue Florida uh Florida swing here

Hill Club and Lodge Let’s uh let’s get into the course you know we we have a I think this is a adult version of what people expected PGA National to be basically regardless of what happens with the weather uh this is you know I think that that probably plays right you

Know we have thick thick rough thicker than uh what we had last week and thicker than what PGA National League us usually does we have firm and fast conditions here on these uh Bermuda greens we got obviously a ton of bunkers a ton of water that comes into play and

Then again we have the the win factor that can make this all a mess and we’ve seen that kind of play itself out in terms of what the winning score is here we don’t usually even approach the low teens typically 12 or worse uh five of

The last six years we had that real bad weather year a handful of years ago with hat in it like four under uh you know typically around single digits here too because just this is a difficult golf course you know some of the notes and the quotes that Ron has in his preview

Which is up on the site like it’s you can’t fake it around here it is mentally challenging you need the whole bag um and this is just a course that I think you know people got real real real but her last week when people were putting

Up low scores at PJ National it’s gonna get real bad if people are kind of blowing around Bay Hill which I don’t expect to happen here this week no it’s funny too when I when I went on with Andy lack the other day last week to

Talk about PGA National leag I said and I was I told him afterwards after I let him go for a while I was trying to bait him into talking [ __ ] about Nicholas as like a designer because he has in the past in certain other courses but I said

I baited him with like why aren’t we playing Majors here and you know he had a really wellth thought out reasoning for that and then it’s funny because we said after that like it might just be you know we might see some low scores here anyway with the changes and and the

Conditions and then it turned out to be like that and and then some you know not the the 10 under kind of average that you saw obviously a lot of people lot of people Eclipse that so hopefully hopefully with the conditions what we’re seeing here and just kind of the the

Architecture and build of this course we finally get a tough one like you said what is it uh so 72 about 7,400 yards yeah this is plays a little bit longer plays a little longer because there are some forc you know for yeah a handful

Ron and I touched on this on the Monday uh First Look show where you know it’s it’s not last week was a less than driver course there was more naturally forced layups there’s not this is a good mix there’s just some holes that have it some holes that don’t so you know it’s

It’s probably middle of the pack there so there’s going to be some spots where it naturally plays a little bit longer you’re going to have I believe you have more 200 plus yard approaches here than than anywhere else and some of those are like 250 plus so you know some some

Definitely longer clubs then you know not a wedge Fest not a lot here that’s under 125 unless you’re you laying up on some of the the holes too so you definitely factoring some of that in and again thick rough and there’s been some changes here we had a a new

Superintendent a handful of years ago uh you know that Ron touched on this again in the article too and some players don’t love it as much you had some like basically shave down around the greens if you were to miss and these are hard greens to hold greens and reg definitely

Lower than the tour average event here uh but they’ve kind of kept that thick rough all around in terms of you know not the shave runoffs which I think players find that to be a little bit more challenging in terms of like around the green skills this stuff is going to

Catch it a little bit there’s I think a little bit more variance in terms of how you’re around the green game comes out of thick like rough play uh versus Like Short Grass scrambling but again that’s something we can capture and kind of dig into in the rabbit hole and we dig in

But uh hasn’t massively impacted scoring because scoring is still staying pretty low here too but just something to to look out at so they also changed some of the runoffs around the hazards so they actually shave down rough around bunkers and shave down rough around the water so

You get some really good drives that just kind of get some roll out if this is playing really firm and fast that kind of kick themselves into the drink or kick themselves into into the bunkers too that could be it’s a kind of a yes

No no no no no no no kind Drive where you see that where uh some of these places we have long rollouts long runouts and and obviously some some tilt to some of the places are going to land like you mentioned to the just it plays longer

You know than than even what we’re listing it as because of the not only the weather can kind of affect that but the approach shots and some of the forc layups and then just the fact that none of the par 3s are like short or easy so

No should be pretty tough um people have pointed this out Ron had quotes about this I want to say Jordy was a big qu one in his preview article saying like you have to play this course you have to know your way around it course history

Is going to come into play here um the wind like you mentioned already Canen Canen will and maybe is going to come into play here and like these greens the greens is the biggest thing for me not only like you mentioning the runoffs the shaved slopes but like the sloping of

The greens in general are just going to make them harder to hold you know on some of these longer approach shots is you’re not able to just catch it and check up and stay where you want to be that’s why green and regulation is going to be so tough here and again it’s

Bermuda you gota you got to be a guy who can find find your read find your breaks and Putt well and Bermuda grass so it’s a another week of that and again it’s a smaller field all the best golfers should be fun this is a solid one this

Is uh this is up the list for me in the early years like this is probably the this is the best back-to-back weeks I think that does it doesn’t involve a major like you granted some you can say like oh some of the lead-ups to the major suck dude last year remember the

Tournaments after every major it was like always a really good one so yeah they do have some good back-to-back weeks but non- major wise API players is so so so good so enjoy it um don’t make too many plans with the family watch some golf this

Weekend um what else do we have to me really outside of even considering Majors because the majors obviously were in a rotation but like I me I mean obviously going from uh you know you go from Augusta to Harbor toown that’s fantastic um and obviously anytime Augusta is involved in

You know any equation that kind of is a changer but yeah I mean Bay Hill to sass I I kind of I kind of love it it’s it’s a great combination here so any any other thoughts on the field no it’s a it’s a tough one man like you said it’s

It’s you know the board’s compressed it’s tougher in signat events anyway and now we’re in a spot with 69 guys on the field right so like you know you you card flips over on Monday morning and you want it to be a little bit different than it is but like expectations have to

Be that you’re G to have a bunch of really good golfers at 20 25 and shorter and those are hard prices to click at times but like we just don’t have uh you know the the section that we like to bet into often right I would say maybe we

Would just roughly classify that as 30 to 60 like that’s that exists here but those guys are the actual win Equity considering the top of the field here considering the course history mattering and considering how good the course history is uh for both Scotty and Rory uh that makes it actually even more

Tricky here too so that becomes a challenge for this week yeah and you know as you mentioned too it’s uh it’s trickier you got to think about it it is relative like it’s not looking at uh the odds board for your normal 120 150 person field and saying like those

Guys that we those 30 to 60 guys me and you obviously love week in and week out bombs are going to be different like you have to think about this quite a bit differently it is the small field event that we didn’t used to get very often it

Used to be just a couple times a year you had to think about this but obviously have to think about a lot more and same thing kind of goes with one andone as I roll into that you know it is a signature event you use you need to

Use a big name this is a huge purse like you are going to again me and me and uh Cal always use you know a deck of cards as the analogy like you’re burning a face card maybe an ace two weeks in a row here because these are huge huge

Purses anytime there’s signature event you don’t want to get cute it has to be probably at worst somebody’s in the top 20 of what you’re betting uh what you’re listing as your top golfers more likely top 15 these this is going to pay and next week next week is definitely going

To pay more than a major the the players is a massive Pur so think about that and obviously if you’re having trouble or you want to incorporate a little more data into your one andone obvious check out our sponsor pool genius where you can get customized pick advice on your

Pool size based on your pool size tournaments and your past picks with data driven pick grades highlighting your best strategic options um yeah just save hours researching tracking picks across multiple pools and for now again limited time free trial you can go try it out for free check it out the link is

In the show notes again pool genius outsmart your competition win your pool I have no idea who I’m using this week also I have no idea really what the betting card looks like outside of one specific name um and I haven’t looked at your model yet I did build my first run of

Like a an expert model that’s week you can check those out over on the site I know Ron has put one together I think Andy lack has put one I want to say I might be I might have been the last one to put together a an API one I was

Little little uh slow sleepwalking into the week but be interesting to hear what you wanna you want to start with this week yeah I’m uh I’m gonna probably build a new one so that’s you know we and we can do the one do some of that in

The show is what I love building multiple and you know try not to overwhelm people and turn some of them off there’s not like a million expert models to look into but um if you are going to watch this see for the first time you want to get access to all that

We’re doing here at bsps golf all the premium content you want to get in the Discord DFS plays all the great charting and splits from Ron PGA splits 101 you need to get a bets Spurs golf subscription um and the rabbit hole is involved in that we are going to walk

Through and build that model the rabbit hole we are way too cheap and it is going up we’re going to make the uh just being honest we’re going to make the uh raise the prices here shortly but you can still circumvent all that through our partners here at Vivid pck Vivid pic

Is a DFS pick them site uh like some of the other ones that you probably more familiar out there but Vivid pck U similar to Vivid Seats obviously a uh company you know about secondary ticket Market they have your first deposit match up to 250 bucks if you’d like to

Play these DFS games that is by far the best in the industry uh you can use our promo code here bets Spurs golf use the link to download the Vivid pcks app app $5 deposit and play simply Depo five bucks is all you need to do I will have

Vivid picks plays for you on Wednesday uh they’ve been putting out some stuff uh Tuesday night Wednesday morning to even give you some picks to play all you need to do is put in a $5 entry within 48 hours you’re going to get an email back telling you how to access our sites

For the rest of the 2024 season for free no additional cost uh it is only available in about 28 States they are listed here down below if you’re not in one of those States simply DM one of us Ron or our house account to pet Spurs

Golf on Twitter we will give you a very very competitive promo code to let you get access uh get a discount on a month to try us out or to take advantage of a really really cheap annual discount uh that you want to lock in before those

Prices go up so hit us up on Twitter if you can’t get access to it or just go to the App Store download the Vivid pick app and get started use that promo code brps golf yeah and uh as he mentioned 28 States we did have some people ask in

The DMs like hey I’m really close to the Border like yes you can drive across the border sign up enter you know deposit five bucks enter play and you’ll get the promo code like they’d love to see you play more than that but um that is that is absolutely something that will work

So feel free and yeah the biggest part of what you’re going to get outside of just the you know the Discord and some of the premium articles is the what what’s the word the gem the the crown jewel of of the site the rabbit hole the you know mixed player mixed

Condition player model that we are going to play with every week and yeah we’re going to start from scratch you can see up at the top left there it is the Arnold Palmer Invitational uh golfers displayed if you pull that down you can switch to I

Almost I keep wanting to say punana it is not punana it is Puerto Rico but if you pull that down you can create models for Puerto Rico as well um obviously the cognizant still in there you can create a model if you want to maybe not the

Worst thing to do go try to create a model that um that gives you closest to the leaderboard I getro in your top 10 yes see how how you can manipulate stats to make Austin ecro number one but like I said you can you can obviously do one

For the Puerto Rican open you can do one for the API we’re going to do API for now we’ll talk a little Puerto Rican later I’m going to build a model for Puerto Rico later today or tomorrow but I doubt we’re going to build two custom models today we’ll start with Bay Hill

The stats that matter where do you want to go with this Ryan yeah people can actually go in here you can see here uh view expert rankings and you could see all the stuff that we’ve done you see obviously Andy here Andy La as well uh

Matt venzi who um you know is a has his own podcast um also his has his model posted here for people to see I also have right here I probably should have named it something different because uh Pro Sounds like I’m like a professional but it’s the Puerto Rican open model uh

I look like looks like I’m the only one that has one in here so it’ll be interested to see uh what happens there but we’ll talk about the Puerto Rico but yeah this is always available for you to check out and see hey you know what are

These guys using what stats should I be looking at that I maybe haven’t that they are looking at too which I think is a really cool resource for you as well again not the this is the data right so it’s not the answers to the test but

Again it’s hoping to you know fill out your player pools your betting cards and you know try to find a better way to build those with h stats that matter here so yeah R I don’t know I don’t know who’s gonna win I don’t know the stats

Of matter you do here’s the data have fun rip rip around find it I’m I’m looking into that too because I’m sure somewhere in the back end I was talking to somebody about this the other day somewhere in the back end I’m sure we have the data behind like every finished

Model that any users made that you know hundreds and maybe thousands of week that are getting made I wonder if we can pull that all and then just regression you know do a regression test and see like who had the best model last week yeah that that would be super I I feel

Like the dev team’s gonna kill me if I asked to do stuff like that but yeah uh that would be super interesting we should have like an award like who made the model that uh ranked the players closest to the actual finishing positions after the golf tournament was

Uh and then send up something every week like I’m not going to lie a fantastic idea yeah you’re you’re the smartest guy you’re the smartest guy if if you could just download them all like in a mass uh Mass file of csvs I mean I know a guy that works here

That absolutely could just quickly test that against the you know the final standings and see where we’re at that would be super interesting to see like who the the smartest person was that or the luckiest person was that week yeah that’s we’re giving the dev team too

Much right now we’ll let them finish uh their workload that’ll get us through the end of the year but I think that’s a a really interesting idea moving forward so yeah Ron does a good job on his uh course preview uh in the very bottom there’s a section of key Rabbit Hole

Filters and I think this is a week that there are a lot of different ways that you can do this we could literally take two hours today looking at different splits here to break this down um but yeah I mean any you just built it any

Inklings of how you’d want to start this in terms of you know what we’ve done in the past like you know last week we kind of anchored around you know Strokes Gain Florida in a way um you know you can do that in a couple different ways by

Course region or event season um you kind of looking at that or do you want to just kind of take a baseline of either Strokes gain total tto green ball striking like we typically do yeah just like ball striking to start or okay you know if you wanted to go more grany I

Like to keep these kind of high level high level but then throw in a fun one at the end because again this is just something we’re doing more more of an ill you know illustrating how to use it and what what we’re looking at this week whereas we’re going to mention with

Every one of these like six other ways to do this yeah so all right so we should do I don’t know do we need an anchoring stat this week it’s the best of the best it’s true so that’s the thing we don’t want to be like hey

Here’s a guy who’s ranked 200th in the world he’s in the field for the Cog or whatever we’re calling it the Cog last week like the C and he just he’s he is no top 20s no top 30s but he does this one thing that we’re going to wait very

Well and the rest of his game sucks and it it pulls him up the field that’s why we all say anchoring stat and we start with just like Strokes gain total for the last six months because basically all you’re saying is form it’s going to almost you know it’s going to be

Terribly close to like the owgr or just you know data golf rankings or something that’s why we say an anchoring stat like that whereas I don’t know that we need one this week it is the the creme de creme you’re not going to have you know

Guys throwing in some weird stats on us I would just start with let’s start looking at what matters here and it is driving total driving distance plus accuracy maybe a little heavier on accuracy it is long irons it is irons 200 plus it’s maybe Bermuda putting maybe we throw in some putting stats

This week and you know probably some scoring stuff like we said it’s not major golf but it’s getting closer to it it is bogey avoidance it is three putt avoidance it is keeping your [ __ ] together and get to five under I like it yeah there’s a bunch of

Stuff in there that like we have a multitude of ways for you to to capture those types of things so um well let’s go here I’ll go into the condition section if you’re seeing this for the first time again you can uh you know download any of these into a CSV I

Already showed you that you can look at the expert rankings view section section uh is really crucial along with the filter by condition section basically is going to help you choose your stats and your filters uh you can mess around here with the time frame along with the

Rounds played to make sure that you’re getting yourself the right sample especially as you start to build and chop stuff out a little bit you want to make sure you’re backing out to give yourself a sample that’s large enough to be statistically relevant you can also go into this section here minimum rounds

Which I think is is crucial not as much in this week but you do have a couple of guys that don’t play a ton or have not where you could kind of throughout the noise of a really small sample uh within the data set to make sure that you’re

Not you know giving yourself they’re not getting like credit for a really good four round sample where everyone else is pulling 50 rounds that could throw off the model there too so just just some different ways to defaults to looking at things from a ranking standpoint you can

Also look at things from an average Strokes gained total Strokes gained or the percentage of rounds gained when you’re in The Strokes gains section so I think that’s really important too let’s go by um let’s look at event season let’s look at Florida because this is

Gonna capture a few things I think this is gonna give us water danger yeah comp comp courses similar courses Bermuda greens similar rough similar time of year and the reason I you know I talked about again last week that we we didn’t do this in California because I think

There’s such vast difference between some of the California courses where I think these Florida courses are more Cory courses to each other uh compara so I do think that this is a a worthwhile thing to look at we back out to three years trying to capture the last 50

Rounds we get pretty close on some of these guys which I think is uh you know I think makes it a pretty good thing and we’re getting almost everyone in the field so I think there’s like one guy David Ford or something like that uh which I don’t even know that story um

You know you see some smaller samples here some for some guys but we’re getting a pretty good value uh here of what we’re looking at so confirmation bias I like this split quite a bit um so we will go ahead and and add this here

To the uh oh these are guys I like oh look these are guys that uh that I’m okay betting on so we will go uh let’s see last three I’m gonna make a note you don’t have to do this but I think we’re gonna have a bunch of maybe Strokes gain

Totals so uh I think this makes some sense so look last three years last 50 rounds Florida um scoring conditions are difficult Andy so I think that does capture some of the stuff that you were talking about too uh I like some of the

Ways that r has done this in the past we can basically eliminate the easy conditions um but I think difficult slash very difficult is a good way to look at things here to get a sense of like you said major championship golf uh scoring is tough here like you said

We’re not really even touching the teams here often sometimes have some single- digit wins so I think that this is going to be a sample worth looking at here let’s see uh yeah so last 50 rounds difficult very difficult scoring conditions yeah pretty good golfers uh so these are also confirmation bias from

Like a you know we’re getting the top of the board as we would expect here sure and and that’s the thing too and may maybe a little advice and maybe I don’t know it’s not like I picked the winner last week but when you start whittling it down like that and start adding

Conditions to make the sample size smaller I tend to go towards more basic splits more basic stats and data you know I’m not going like hey I’m going to add these wind conditions and scoring conditions on this kind of greens and then look at you know approach from 125 to 150 like a

Very granular chunk of data like when I do break like that you know looking at this I’m almost Happy half the time just grabbing total just Strokes gain total how are you playing overall uh in these conditions not you know a smaller chunk of data like approach or ball striking

Or you know not that those are that much smaller but you know I usually go top level when I start breaking out and I noticed you tend to do that too but I just thought it’d be worth mentioning yeah no I agree with you otherwise you’re getting into some really weird

Data that might not be very prescriptive at all th% because that’s really what we’re trying to do right like and I wouldn’t overfit too we’ve talked about this and we’ll talk about it every time because you never know someone’s watching for the first time um I just wouldn’t combined a bunch of these

Conditions at once you can uh you’re going to have to back out to a sample size that is like five years and even then you’re probably going to have a really small number of rounds that qualify so like I wouldn’t overfit I would do a couple of these at a time uh

Like I wouldn’t do uh you know difficult very difficult scoring conditions on Long very long courses with very strong Fields small Fields Florida like you’re you’re you’re basically looking at on a single event um and that’s not something that’s going to be very uh very prescriptive uh to move forward so yeah

Be very careful with overfitting conditions I would just pick a few at a time so yeah we did difficult very difficult scoring conditions we just looked at total Strokes gained um so I think that that’s I think it’s a really good place because again we’re looking at some very difficult golf courses and

Some uh you know again we’re getting kind of fed the top of the board which is what we’re looking to do as well uh some of the other stuff like I you know Ron mentions that I really don’t I feel like it’s almost double counting like field

Strength um yeah that’s okay to me uh looking at like small field event type I don’t know how actionable that is like I don’t know that that’s a button that I’ll ever click per se what are your thoughts on like looking an event type small

Field I mean it has to be a big sample but I I don’t know I guess what would you want to look at in that i’ have I really don’t that’s kind of my point is that yeah some of these splits I don’t know maybe maybe it is

Worth looking at like not something you’d add to a model per se not something we’d click the plus button on yeah but maybe looking at a bigger sample of like you know how have people in general played in those are there guys who don’t play well it’s it’s silly

You know we we we have that when we get out to the West Coast where it’s like hey this guy does not like Pro AMS he doesn’t play well and them he’s not a bad Florida player he’s or a bad California player he’s a bad proam player and you know there’s some guys

That like certain kinds of tournaments so maybe something worth looking at but not something we’re going to add to the model we move to off the tea you mentioned total driving raw made the case that it is a good total driving week and again total driving you can

Hover over any of these stats uh it tells you what the specific detail of the stat is total driving adds players ranking and driving distance with their ranking and driving accuracy obviously lower number better kind of a noisy stat but again I don’t hate it at times I do

Think it tells a decent story um there are some other ways I think that we can you know tie into some of this too I don’t think I just do total driving but I’m okay with it here uh you see we’re ranked here by Strokes gained off the te

Do you want to put any other filters on it or do you think just raw total driving is something you want to add I use total driving in mine just as a so obviously I like it but I mean that or accuracy depends how you feel about

Distance I guess I I think it’s it’s been one that showed up with some of the winners but I’m not sure if it’s the reason I think some of those I think it’s some of the guys with distance have Club head speed and they’re hitting their long irons better or maybe I would

Lean maybe I was wrong to add that I should have leaned more into accuracy because this rough sucks yeah you just you really you really not only want to be you know in the right spot on the or not only in the Fairway but you want to

Be in the right spot we’ll do total driving um you know I think it’s interesting this another thing too and I saw Ron looked at it too is uh Apex uh because again holding these greens is super hard so looking at a player’s uh you know Height Apex is interesting here

As well so look uh total driving 50 again so many ways to skin the cats uh do we want to do anything else in the driving bucket uh it’s probably good don’t want to go too too much into that approach again we’re capturing some of the approach stuff in some of The Strokes

Gain total stuff but again if you were ever going to double count double count approach things it is the stickiest of all statistics and the thing that’s going to matter the most we can get into some of the specific buckets when we get into the Fairway approach uh accuracy

And rough approach accuracy but is there um anything that you have I have an opinion here want to hear anything that you have here in terms of uh the approach ranges that we need to be looking at not the ranges I just straight up did greens and regulation

Percentage okay guys over a big sample who can find greens and I know know maybe we could split that out by something I just went overall like who are the guys that no matter what the conditions are they’re finding greens finding ways to get close uh in their

Proximity so maybe go to diff yeah going to difficult green and regulation accuracy courses where it’s lower than average you know where it’s a I don’t know what our cut off is for this but I’m sure we just take the average and then there’s a bucket of here’s all the

Rounds where greens and greens and regular was much much difficult difficult more difficult than uh than the average round yeah that that’s something I’d look at for sure yeah so look at the last couple of years um you know 2022 when Scotty won greens and Reich for the week

54.7% that is 11% worse than a tour average event uh the year before that same right around same bucket uh eight and a half% below an average Tour event last year I think it was up a little bit but not by much uh 58 so 6% below a tour

Average event so holding these greens is very hard and I think this tells a story that I think is is useful so we are looking at greens and rag accuracy difficult greens and rag percentage uh Jake knap at the top here so this is again like what do we want to

Do with this minimum rounds I don’t know like Jake naps is good though he’s also very good right like so I don’t I don’t hate leave him in there yeah like you know this is a subjective thing for you to add the rest of you know guys are

Getting here some smaller samples uh but not not a ton and you know no one again the rest of the field right behind nap I think is who we’re expecting to see here is not surprising but like yeah I mean like nap’s gonna get a little boost on a

Really small sample but I think it actually is confirming what we think about this guy as well I think he’s actually pretty damn good hits the ball really far uh so his you know distance and Apex height I think are going to be things that that matter too so uh greens and rag

Percent difficult again I think that that’s uh I think that’s a good way to do it you mentioned the approach buckets we can look at this from a fairway or rough standpoint uh you know last year you know you’re looking at you know pretty a little bit below average from

Like the 150 175 175 200 but still you know a lot of shots from there about 35% of your approach shots but then you get into the longer stuff that I think matters even more where you’re 200 to 50 plus is like you know around 35% of the

Approach shots this week that is significantly above a tour average event so do we want to do anything with the smaller buckets or just go to the 200 buckets so I just clicked Fairway 200 plus assuming like hey if you’re if you’re trying to hit 200 plus from this

Rough like you’re you’re [ __ ] anyway I I don’t know like there’s no saving you at that point yeah if you’re that inaccurate where you know you need that shot repeatedly yeah some of them you just just the the run off of the green and you off the Fairway and you’re you’re

Kind of dunzo uh even though the shot was pretty good so we’ll add the Fairway there um I’m gonna add the rough one and then we’ll just we can weigh a little bit less because I think your point is is accurate at that point you are you

Maybe less trying to stick it uh by the hole you’re just trying to you know get it up on the green uh which I think is just save you there a little bit see who’s the top here so David Ford is the guy we’re talking about earlier uh we’re

Going to sample out David Ford because he’s we don’t want him to get a ton of credit for uh that yeah he played with the RSM he’s like a 20-year-old kid that I think he might be Collegiate still I think an exemption he’s gonna be in

Trouble this week so uh all right you can see here lots of different ways to to you know bucket this out from an approach standpoint Fairway rough or just straight uh straight approach numbers which I think matters a ton around the green matters a lot uh here because we talked about these

Greens are hard to hold uh there’s the ability to look at scrambling through the you know rough versus Short Grass and we talked about how this is a rough you know the aprons here have been uh grown out over the years and is no longer Short Grass it is rough but do

You want to do anything in terms of I’m not a sand save because I know there’s a lot of sand here just kind of statistically noisy from my opinion not all bunkers are the same as well so that’s kind of scram around the green or nothing yeah keep keeping this one simple for

Sure okay so you going to do scrambling or scrambling rough any uh any yeah scrambling rough I don’t hate because of like you said some of that long it’s less collectionary I mean unless I’m wrong here like the collection areas aren’t there it’s it’s like if if you’re

Rolling off you’re rolling into lung stuff yep and again some confirmation bias looking at this stat of some guys that have played played well here in the past H has had some nice finishes Chris Kirk has been really competitive here over the years Z hasn’t been here a

Bunch but has played well uh Brandon Todd again another guy that you know not necessarily you would think built for this place but has played pretty well here so that that does make a little bit of sense I think that’s okay too to look at these stats when you filter them out

Before you add them to your model like you know does that spit out something that that makes sense is this something that I do want to capture um I think that’s an okay thing to do here too uh putting going to do putting scoring you

Know again we have a little bit of the putting from a Strokes gain total Florida standpoint uh what your thoughts on putting scoring or anything like that yeah I I did a Bermuda split and actually I went cuter than normal I went three putt avoidance on bermudo for

Like and again I I I once I clicked on it I’m like [ __ ] I went back a couple years I’m like I need a big sample of this but Bermuda isn’t it isn’t like paspalum you know it isn’t something goofy there are plenty of rounds on Bermuda so you’re getting you’re getting

A fair size sample I think okay do that there yeah I I waited I waited heavier than I normally would have too just like guys who get on Bermuda and don’t give the tournament away you know I’m not I’m not looking to win on Bermuda I just want someone who’s

Not gonna lose it yeah all right I like it it’s a little different three po ofo uh we go last 50 Bermuda all right I didn’t I didn’t X out of my other stuff so I’m gonna have some uh I think I’m gonna have some

Puerto Rico stats in my model when we go hit the button here that’s a that’s a button I should add just clear everything yeah uh these are difficult part Theses uh it’s not something that I want away but again you can look at that again it can be a tiebreaker or thoughts

It’s up to you um I want to look at this because I think it was interesting I saw Ron uh do it here looking at Apex height uh you can look at Club head speed too these are like I think leading indicators of the ability to maybe hold

A green or get out of the thick rough a little bit easier uh it’s up to you if you want to like actually weigh it or model it uh but I do think it does tell uh somewhat of an interesting story in terms of what we’d expect here to have

Some success so yeah I mean some these guys hit the ball far goat speed guys are uh are long off the tea um yeah any thoughts to uh adding either of these or just to interesting look I mean you can do we can do whatever we

Want I’m click click on apex height and have some more confirmation bias here and uh yeah I mean it’s goingon to be some of the same guys with the the driving stuff yeah we won’t add it but I think it’s interesting to look at at the Top If you’re listening to the podcast

Keegan Bradley tops in the Apex Heights Winden Clark uh Benny Anne uh Sammy valaki I have never seen Sam and Jeff fineberg in the same place together at the same time that’s all I’m going to say uh who knows could be something there Ricky Fowler uh Steph joerger our guy ludvig who feels

Inevitable uh Jason day McKenzie Hughes not someone I would expect to be here from an apex height standpoints cam young uh Rory there kind of so again something to look at I’m not adding it but uh I think that’s enough unless there’s something that we did not

Capture that you think you want to add yeah let’s uh let’s take a look at the final number here and then uh get into some of the guys we bet okay create the mixed condition model I’m going to back up some stuff uh yeah here’s soe um this is my very basic

Puerto Rico model that I got to take out uh we got a bunch of stuff uh no I want to take Island and Ocean out as well that is also a Puerto Rico one uh so what do we got what do we want to do we

Want to Anchor with our I think our top two here are the anchor stats um 25% yeah 20 each okay yeah well I was going to say you’re already at 25 so you don’t want to go terribly more but yeah a lot of the other stuff is kind of

Weird like you know the putting we can have pretty low like 10% it’s still putting guys like it’s not it’s gonna win it’s gonna win tournaments but you’re never going to see it coming uh total driving probably 15 I could up to 65 Le you 35 to split among four greens

And regulations probably 15 man and again you’re you’re double counting with the next you can probably make those each pretty small yeah let me do this oh fancies mess up 85 you have so you have 15 to spend between the Fairway and Bruff and probably make those seven and

A half each too yeah uh I think your point here is pretty valid though so um yeah we’ll just we’ll do it we’ll do it that way um all right we also gonna we’re going to have something added very soon that will do the math for you so you

Won’t have to do your math in your head I expect that here uh shortly so this is uh Andy noon in beding Bay Hill all right um we will click this and have it as an experts ranking for you to be able to look at you can see if you scroll down I

Could save a ton of them we’re working on some of the uh logic in the background so you can you know have some like rolling form stuff or some like you know whatever you want to do to be able to adjust and run regardless of the

Fields currently if you you know ran it for the Scottish uh Fields it’s going to want to run again for the Scottish field but we’re working on updating that for you soon all right let’s see what this bad boy spits out saving generates uh I think we’re gonna get Rory and Scotty at

The top I would expect in some form and okay Scotty number one Vic number two Rory three cam young four Corey Connors five I got a lot of ball striking in here so that makes a lot of sense Matthew Cory Cory was pretty high

In too I’m like Oh weird what did I do again Cory Connors came out first in the model that I built on the show here last week which was gave me some Paws and uh yeah I did not move on anything there but it was interesting got Fitzpatrick

Six Lowry seven Keegan eight Jake knap uh getting a nice little bump there uh nine and Chris Kirk 10 don’t hate that at all H sunjay rounding up the top 12 again some other familiar names here that make a ton of sense uh as you get

Into the top 20 so yeah I mean look Scotty is there’s outside of the three put avoidance which is not surprising he’s 47th out of the 69 guys he’s you know top 10 uh top 20 and basically everything else which is uh again not super surprising here so H Vick and Rory

I mean Rory Rory without that water ball on Saturday uh which what he got like a triple or whatever and then he was absolutely dialed in on Sunday could not make a putt the ball striking was just absolutely I mean he was giving himself birdie looks just bombing away off the

Tea finding the fairways uh it was just it was impressive uh so it was probably pretty frustrating for anyone that had Rory and one and Don or if you went to the well at the top of the board on Rory last week like man he he was he was good

So um you know these three make a ton of sense to me um any takeaways or any guys that you know get into the betting card or or guys that you’re considering yeah I’m probably betting Z just because the number’s big but I mean there’s a couple other guys there that

Obviously have piqued my interest and we you know you talked about your on brand bets that you made like I’m not even G not gonna let you I’m gonna spoil it like yeah you bet Keegan but that was a huge number what he GNA do Z’s going to

Pop pretty high maybe not as good out oh yeah like it says there not as good out of the rough but that’s a smaller sample we’re I’m fine with him at like 42 I was really concerned early in the year with him how he’s playing right off the bat

But you can get you know 40s or better that’s someone I definitely looked at I wish obber was uh a little better price but again you have to reset your brain and realize like it’s not a 20 to1 against a field of everyone in the world it’s 20 to one against a smaller

Field 21 in those markets too though like he just is I know it’s just very very it’s very very hard to wrap your head around those and like get excited about betting some smaller numbers like that so yeah it it is it is a little

Tough and then I I guess we’d both talk to little hom like uh sell me this pen because basically I’ve bet my betting card right now is zator like sell me hom and you know I guess sell me fake at his price because he’s someone I looked at

For one and done right off the bat yeah well I’ll start with Vic i’ I’ve bet Vic here the last two years he’s been competitive I think um he has benefited I think from the change of the around the green apron being a little bit thicker versus some of the Short

Grass stuff and I think that’s kind of been a leading indicator in the shift of his results here versus the previous years now again he’s just been an improved golfer that’s been ascending um you again I’m I’m a little biased it’s a guy that I’m always looking for reasons

To bet uh you know it hasn’t been a great early season run for him but I also just don’t want to overact overreact to a small sample of him not being awesome he’s still been really good and been competitive so I just I like this fit for him the ability to be

Long and straight off the te is great uh the long iron stuff is I just historically over a larger sample has been really really good uh and I think he probably you know took a little bit of time off since we saw him last at the Genesis and I think he’s you know

Probably getting dialed in so part of it was the numbers play it opened at 12 I knew we would probably get a little bit of a bigger number drifted out to 16 Caesars if you happen to have Caesars they have a a Vic boost basically uh to

Bet at 19 $100 Max bet that 19 on Vic which I was going to bet there 16 and found the 19 so uh you know I like that number quite a bit on Vic so just if you’re telling me Vic it basically double Rory and Scotty who I like actually considered

Then I’m taking I’m taking V I just I don’t think that there’s yeah that Rory or Scotty have double win Equity of of Vic here so um yes and that’s where my head started at especially for one and done you know I need to use big name um

Like Scotty Rory probably some other spots I could feel very comfortable using obviously Vic too but I like him a lot here 16 and a half at Chris it’s probably a bet H’s 40 yeah so Chris has got some numbers on some guys that I really like so I’m

Like how do I just click that I don’t know I don’t know that you don’t click that uh you know the I think that old like California hom thing has kind of died he’s played really well here he’s just played better golf on harder courses his wins have come on harder

Courses uh you know even though he hasn’t like shown up as well in the majors I think you know we that kind of shifted a little bit last year but again you win uh you know at what was the one we had in like the Maryland DC area a

Couple years ago where he won um and then W Quail Hollow W Quail Hollow a couple times Genesis like these are harder golf courses Max plays his best there so does zuris so I’ve been torn on zalot torus and Max I don’t think I’m clicking both the other one I

Ain’t scared because I got a small card I know I was considering actually just dialing back finishing position bets and stuff this week and just kind of going heavier on outrights which is probably very stupid uh but again want to just I don’t want to leave anyone off the other

One that’s really strange and I want to get your thoughts he’s not popping very well here for us as well but has played here twice uh he’s finished top four both times he’s played here um is not he’s 14th here in our model Jordan Speed is 26 on

Caesars uh he’s like 16 in some other spots like 20 I don’t know what your Chris number is let me see what speed is on Chris feels like feels like such a live bet where you either I know you you live bet him at some point because the numbers drifted and he

Can score here he’s comfortable here he’s got plenty of experience he can go on a run and then that that live bet either gains a shitload of equity as he pushes into the contention or he does three stupid things and goes away and it doesn’t matter so I I have it written

Down as like Jordan spe live you know it’s it’s something I’ll be looking at later in the week yeah I like it so that’s you know that’s been kind of the that mix for me is those three guys more looked at Jordan this morning but yeah zalatoris gosh the Chris number is

Fantastic because domestics you’re looking at basically 33 is the best of the number um same thing with your hom number where hom is 25 in some spots 30 basically is the best number you could find on FanDuel and Cesar and then yeah you have a 40 and change on Chris that’s

Yeah and again both of those guys are gonna be around even money for top 20s probably GNA have home sell top 20 bets at like plus plus 100 plus 110 uh um any yeah Kean I got a 90 I got a Keegan 90 Keegan’s your bomb like we don’t we’re

Not doing bombs this week because we don’t have to it’s not that tournament but Keegan at 90s are bomb for the week then let’s be honest I was betting Keegan at 60 so like Keegan at 90 was a gift from the the High Heavens and like the last three years Keegan’s been right

Around the top 10 um we looked at some of the stuff like we look at Strokes game total Florida he’s second here uh the Apex stuff we didn’t even put in the model he was first the fair the 200 plus stuff seventh and fourth um so like all

The things we actually do want to wait here Keegan has been really good at uh he’s dragged down by his scrambling in the rough um otherwise he’d be even higher than eighth in the mall so yeah I mean Keegan finishing position bets are going to be on the card as well and I

Love having the 90 in pocket I think he uh he likes it here quite a bit so yeah uh that’s kind of the the meat for it so I know we went long uh you want to touch on anything go back to the main page let’s pull up your let’s do five minutes

On the API you pull up your expert model that you built I’ll just mention some quick things on the uh on the API on the Puerto Rico um we’re down in Puerto Rico it is a commonwealth same same kind of thing obviously the same dates it’s just the

Alt event that’s running alternate to this 132 person field including your defending champ Nico eavara whose name think eia eavara yeah um Grand Reserve Golf Club Rio Grande this is sitting in the foothills of a rainforest um little different than what we’re getting in Florida in Orlando uh so

It’s it’s there’s going to be some wind exposed parts to it but also some you know some that isn’t so much Inland kind of makes me think of uh you know well why can’t I think of it I’m just I have the lighthouse in my in my brain oh uh

What Harbor toown Harbor toown makes me think of Harbor toown a little where there’s going to be some wind exposed stuff but also some stuff that’s covered up yeah um this is a composite like there was like five n hole courses down there at this Resort so they’re just

They’re using a little bit of everything to put together an 18 hole event it is paspalum similar to what you saw at Mexico a few weeks ago um same as like corales punana so it’s it’s going to be simple if you want to use comp courses

You can use those to can El chameleon El Cardell Mexico open all those or just click places with fum I suppose you know there there maybe is a little bit of comp to I’ve seen some people mention the Sony the RVC things like that but a little it’s it’s a resort course

Like scoring greens and regulation approach scoring don’t overthink this thing hoard’s your favorite burger Ry are right right there God that’s might be what I’m having for lunch a burger with a rye um like you’d mentioned Burger a little somebody I wanted to maybe bet was Rio

Hsun he’s like 25 to one all right oh man I logged out so I don’t who popped in your model I was not looking I was reading some notes ahead yeah so if you look um if I kind of my I didn’t mess around with uh you changing the weights

Too too much but here’s what this is Strokes gain total uh um this is just last 18 months um I went Strokes gained I think this is uh Strokes gain te to Green on island or ocean courses um which I think we you know get a little

Bit of that too U that we are talking about um and then bird or better because you got a score as you mentioned this is low I think we went in the low 20s last year greens and reg uh was kind of something that I saw is a

Something that stuck out a little bit you got to have pretty high greens and reg rate here to uh to contend and then driving distance because this is of course stretches a little bit so those are kind of the the main buckets um your Rio here is number two in Strokes

Gain total is kind of a nice Baseline stat but yeah um yeah these weird events some I saw this in someone’s preview too like you don’t have to be coming in with form to win one of these like yeah that’s how all these stupid alt events are somebody who hasn’t even been

Playing well that comes in but obviously that is something that Drew me to him he’s one of the favorites and he’s just playing I think he’s one who has the biggest kind of ramp to where he can Ascend to this year out of some of these

Other names so I like him at like 25 that’s probably my only bet yeah so I you know I’m took a Blood Oath somewhere along the lines to make sure I’m backing Erin wise uh I’ve waited and luckily waiting there’s some 70s out on Aaron Wise uh who you know

His only wins have come Coastal courses so that’s a thing the other one that’s interesting to me is another uh friend of the show when we were going to the well on Austin ecro last year we were also going to the well on Sam Stevens uh yeah 60s are available on Sam Stevens

Here he came out fourth year in the model uh hits of the mile has been playing decent golf um I don’t hate it I mean what we’ve seen here I mean I mean not not great but okay missed the cut the last couple times out but again

Hitting hitting on a mile again I think he’s better than some of the other guys in this field and uh so San Stevens is interesting to me comparatively like he probably should be a little bit further away from Aaron Wise since wise has been kind of a no-show of late but yeah

Probably you know Springland bombs here probably be the way to go nasty Lashley also up there but he’s a little short in the odds board he’s played these was say he’s certainly not a bomb at a place like this Lashley I I did see some love for Lashley he something I would

Consider betting as well so yeah he’s uh 40 on Lashley so yeah that’s it if you guys yeah if you guys have spent more time than us on Puerto Rico and you have some hot tips leave them in the YouTube comments if you followed you know if you

Follow along in podcast Forum obviously we’re on Twitter Andy msfw Ry Newton betsports golf you could tweet us DM us if you’re in the Discord tag us if you have some hot tips for Puerto Rico I’m gonna dig in a little more if I get some

Time but for the most part it’s just maybe a couple of outrights I I do want to add that’s what I’m looking for actually send me some bombs because I’m betting a 25 to one in a full field event I need two or three bombs to lay

With that one too so hit us up um hit the thumbs up if you watched on YouTube leave us a festar review on Apple or Stitcher or whatever Stitcher dead yeah I said Stitcher I meant like Android trying to think how people list on Android Google I’m have an Android

I’m a Spotify guy I used to be a Stitcher guy you know I used to use something called Podcast Addict I like that app the best I think a lot of Android people just use whatever app they like so just whatever five stars hit the thumbs up good luck we’ll see

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