Alex Blickle and Justin Bates are back to breakdown the betting slate for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Dive into the LIV Golf vs PGA drama, the mysterious return of Anthony Kim, and the rise of Jake Knapp. Don’t miss out on all the latest golf news and insights. They have PGA Course Fit, One and Done Picks, and PGA DFS Picks! Check out all their Arnold Palmer Invitational picks on this episode of Pro vs Pro.
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Timecodes:
Intro – 0:00
World Golf Ranking Drama – 2:08
Hello Anthony Kim – 4:08
LIV & PGA Talks – 6:10
Knapp Time – 15:45
Arnold Palmer Inv DFS – 22:10
Bay Hill Course Fit Preview – 32:33
One and Done Picks – 41:14
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What’s going on everybody welcome back to another edition of Prov Pro this week we’re talking everything about the arop Palmer Invitational recapping the cognizant classic talking some Liv walking Neiman Anthony Kim official World Golf Ranking drama that’s been going on and then the people have spoken
We’re going to do a lot more DFS discussion this week we’ll get into some betting we’ll get into oneand done of course finally had a pretty good one andone week so we’re right back in the mix of things there uh Justin pretty eventful week what do you
Think yeah man uh that men L Lee we we generally I would say that people don’t know this but we don’t do a lot of texting back and forth and we’re like he hits it he makes it for birdie then he hits it up there stiff for eag like it
Was kind of that can you please make this one because we kind of thought that ekro might hit a few bad shots but man he just striped it down the stretch and and so it was fun it was a good week I think it you know it was it was really
Really cool to to have a chance for a change yeah if if uh if there were any FBI agents just spying on our conversations they would have known every single shot that Min Lee hit because it was every single one it’s like damn it can’t have that Miss or wow
What a great putt yeah going going with every shot it was a good sweat wish he had a better finish but it was our best of the Year from one and done perspective and now we’re just barely outside the top 10,000 in the Mayo open so hopefully we can continue a push I
Can’t believe there’s still no one at six million in winnings in uh in that in that contest which is enormous contest it just goes to show how kind of crazy the the top of the leaderboards have been so far this year um speaking of all of this drama from Liv and basically
Based on walki Neeman and all the success he’s had and the fact that he’s not even in all the majors yet he just got uh a special exemption into the PGA Championship now so he’s in the Masters in the PGA Championship what’s your whole take on This World Golf Ranking
Drama I mean the Liv’s kind of being hard-headed and dumb about it I think the world golf rankings being a little bit hard-headed and dumb about it and so therefore there’s no middle ground um we knew you could see it coming it’s not a secret right it was it
Is just kind of who they both are you know the US World Golf Ranking and they live that’s just kind of the the way that they stand on things right wrong or indifferent you know it almost takes one side backing down for the other side to maybe come to their senses that being
Said like I I think we mentioned last week World Golf Ranking said just do this and Liv said no we’re not doing that well there therefore you’re not going to get those right so um I think that also just from personal discussions that I’ve had on Twitter and you’ve had on Twitter like
Everybody thinks that that since we hate the PGA Tour we love live or you know since we hate live we love the PGA Tour I don’t I don’t think that I think we’re very unique in the fact of coming from a golf background that we can dislike a
Lot about both and see what they’re doing wrong um and I often wonder if you doubled the size of live fields and gave us the same contest in DraftKings if you wouldn’t see live golf pick up in the in the the viewership I I honestly think that the general public
Underestimates what DraftKings and FanDuel and the the smaller player pool you’re basically using a NASCAR player pool instead of a a golf player pool I mean that’s the two things that I play the most is NASCAR and golf and that’s the EAS it’s an interesting question because we do have betting markets
Available for Liv so we can see that like that’s not driving viewership a ton by the way did you actually see any ratings numbers from this past week of Liv did the Anthony Kim effect have a large effect was it large so I I didn’t
Um you know I I I can’t believe we really didn’t touch on this much or enough why would Anthony Kim make his comeback at two in the morning in in the United States like what like what what like what like the only the only needle he’s
Going to move is in United States no there’s you know there wasn’t much European transition to PGA Tour back when he was playing not near like it is today and and they they’re like oh yeah we’re gonna run this guy out here at 2 am how many people are gonna get up to
Watch him so I we did I I didn’t look at it but that surely the numbers couldn’t have been good just with that that effect and and that’s kind of my fault I didn’t think about that before I didn’t either to be honest I something I didn’t
Think of it I didn’t even know where they were yeah that’s a little pay attention to live I think I think your point was a really good one though like we don’t have any allegiance to the PGA Tour we don’t have allegiance to live we have an allegiance
To the game of golf and to golf fans everywhere like that’s that’s my thought of it and when we criticize the PGA Tour when we criticize the official War Golf Ranking whatever basically what we’re saying is this is bad if this was better we would have a better experience as
Fans golf fans around the world have a better experience a reasonable approach to to kind of evaluating it all and how about maybe better for the players too like a lot of the stuff we say is is like it points towards like let’s make the players that aren’t your top 20
Players get a better get more out of what they’re really doing because let’s put let’s let’s just put it in facts right if only 40 guys play because that’s who’s making all the money then we have two live golf tours and everybody’s pissed yeah so I do have
A little inside info on what I the the talks between the the Liv and the PJ tour are and I didn’t even tell you this I probably should have before we started this um the talk is and this is from a more than reliable source they are looking into 8 to 10 joint
Tournaments so your top 30ish players from each tour however they break it down it may be more of a percentage they’re still working on the details um that’s kind of the latest talks uh so it’s there’s still going to be separate entities obviously nothing set in stone but that’s where they’re headed that
Sounds a little bit like the like the Champions League that we discussed earlier in the year on this show so yeah I I think that would be a big step forward and again that would be the kind of thing that appeals to golf fans everywhere so that would be that’d be
Great in my eyes um the final point that I want to make about this entire discussion with the official world golf rankings is I kind of think the entire conversation matters a hell of a lot less than we wanted than we like admit it and then the then the live golfers
Are are making it out to be I think the perfect example is what Rory was talking about relating Neiman to Taylor G which is look nean went and played elsewhere he played twice in Australia he played in Dubai and guess what he was recognized for that that’s why he’s
Gotten these invites what did Taylor G do not a goddamn thing so maybe gu doesn’t deserve to be there and and I think it’s something like if you look at all the live guys and if you went through a checklist of guys who deserve to be at the Masters Australian or and
The and the PGA Championship it’s like maybe gu is the only one who isn’t that you could make an argument for that deserves it maybe us haasen as well something like that but it’s like most of the guys who should be there are going to be there yeah I mean sorry Ian
Polter doesn’t need to be in the event anymore you know like sorry he was a great player and his time has just passed um I mean it’s just one of those deals like there’s you’re 100% right so yeah it’s kind of a mood Point um I the
You know two other things obviously I want to touch on the Anthony Kim but also do you buy into any of this nonsense of a talk of like Phil Mickelson’s goingon to go contend at Augusta because he’s playing so good right now I mean he finished second last year
So maybe but it it would still really shock me for sure I mean he finished seventh in a field that’s you know and everybody’s like oh look he’s top 10 again he’s ready for Augusta I guess you’re right if you can get around a place and you’ve got the
Talent and and the stars the line that week I just it’s just funny to me like it all of the sudden he like come to the Forefront yeah it’s it’s especially funny because when you look at that six Place finish he just had at Jetta you only gained 1.75 true Strokes per round
According to data golf’s estimates which brings me to another point about Neiman it’s one I made on Twitter and got I didn’t get like backlash for it I just I got Miss interpretations in response to what I said which was look nean has some really strong results by finish position
This season so like at the Australian PGA he finished fifth and goes to the Australian Open and wins he then goes to Dubai and finishes fourth wins at myoba 30th at Las Vegas third uh in the international series and then wins Liv jeda in all those finishes those are
Really strong results by finish position only two of those did he average over three true Strokes per round for comparison’s sake Justin Thomas has done that like four or five times already this season doesn’t have a better finish than third place on the PGA tour it’s
Just a hell of a lot easier to finish high on those leaderboards especially while kep and DJ and cam Smith and even John ROM to some degree are struggling like you you put those guys you take away their aame where’s the competition on Liv and
So I I think that’s another part of this big puzzle which is like look that’s certainly part of why the the official War golf rankings it’s it’s hard to sell when it’s just that much easier to finish at the top of leaderboards yeah I think my
Counterpoint is um a you kind of kind of played to the level of your competition I think if if you put Neeman in the field this week he he’s not a favorite but he’s in the he’s in the Matt Fitzpatrick range uh the Jason day Matt fit Fitzpatrick um you know that range
Which I would call probably bottom of tier two in my opinion so I I don’t know that it’s quite that fair to be so analytical with with those guys over there and you also got to remember like he’s only doing it over three rounds and not four so what if the
Last round does involve a 62 or you know or something something like that so you you kind of they’re the thing about the pj2 or four rounds that you you kind of I think the general live fan underrates these guys are so good that you’re 150
Best best player in world gets it going one day and he shoots 61 or 62 and I mean look at what Austin erro did and he’s I mean might might be a bad example but he’s a good example this week because I you know about this time last
Year I think is when I began talking about how talented this kid was it it was about this exact time so I’ll say one thing there first the fact that the fact that they only play three rounds that should theoretically help him post those really high strok gain numbers
Because more often than not that that final round is going to regress you back towards the middle it doesn’t mean he’s gonna play poorly in the last round but like so at jeda he gained 4 point1 per round chances are in the final round even if he still played well even if he
Still gained two that would take his average down to like 3.6 3.7 something like that so the in theory it should help him this is a really interesting conversation because I think you’re playing I think you’re you’re not losing your last round and you’re not losing your first round you’re losing a middle
Round and I would say generally the PGA Tour scoring average on Saturday barring bad weather all things being equal is usually the easiest day maybe but you’re still you’re still not likely to post such an outlier round that you’ve done in in the other yeah rounds of that
Event it’s just a different we it’s not I don’t think it’s a good conversation for right now because it could go on forever well one more thing to touch on Anthony Kim zator shot 81 his first round back after being hurt Anthony Kim shot 76 after being out for 12
Years that being said he looks horrible it’s all I’m almost embarrassed that I was looking forward to watching him this week not as a player but as a person the way he carried himself the way he like just everything about it was just not what I expected is that is that a
Fair statement yeah I think it’s fair and I think it gets to the conversation we were having last week which is like it’s a bit of a risk for for Li to go this route because the magic the the Intrigue can be really really short-lived if he shows no sign of being
Competitive again and like you said we we saw some really bad um bad results from zotor when he first returned maybe it will get better for Anthony Kim I think we immediately saw signs from zalat Taurus where it’s like oh yeah that five iron was the the ridiculously
Pure iron ball Striker world class player even though he then you know left two in the bunker and made double in the following hole we saw signs from zot Taurus that I don’t think we saw from Anthony Kim however I say that as somebody who didn’t watch a whole lot of
Anthony Kim so maybe there were some signs that I just didn’t package it was just it I just didn’t like and then like the oh I’ve never heard of a trackman get out of here bro like who are you fooling never heard of it like you don’t
Live in a dungeon I mean you know like don’t you don’t need more attention you already have all the attention go play golf like yeah and you know I’m the first one to wear a hoodie and sweatpants to play golf but I guarantee if if you were watching me play on TV I
Wouldn’t I wouldn’t look like that I wouldn’t carry myself like that I wouldn’t act like that like it was just kind of a disappointing as a whole um I don’t I don’t know it was just if I could summ it up in one way I would say it didn’t look like he was
There to contend and whenn he looked like he was there there to be just one of the big stories and nothing more than that yeah I I I agree I I I expected to see more more out of them I mean let’s put it this way if I if somebody gave me
17 million to make a comeb back here at 42 years old I would have to cut 30 pounds right I mean I would I just like if you’d have to give me six or seven eight months to do it like I’m just gonna I mean I’m just does that make
Sense I just I was just kind of for for somebody that was really looking forward to it I was kind of embarrassed on the flip side of things we had another guy playing with more attention than he’s had ever or at least in a long time in Anthony Kims and with
Jake knap coming off the wi playing with Rory how did he handle all of that this week and and you know we we’ve talked before about how difficult it can be to play the week after you just got a big win how impressed Were You by nap this
Week and what did you think of the fact that he was only 3% own on DraftKings um I I mean price had a big factor in the pricing last week I think it was pretty easy to overlook him and DraftKings um just for who he was grouped around uh coming off of a
Win I think you can see that he’s albe a you know a rookie so to speak I think you can see his age is older by the way he handled it and and what he the way he played and and you know being comfortable winning is a big
Deal too yeah um it’s a lot different than Dunlap and I think that’s the easiest comparison right now of how much Dunlap struggled since since he won but he’s you know he’s in what a 18 or 19 year old kid right so it’s a different mentality whether you think so or not
It’s just different you know I thought I thought the the comparison to Dunlap is a really good one I thought there was a bigger more important difference between the two which was after dunlap’s win remember what he had to go do he had to go return to school he had to go tell
His coach and his teammates well first he had to make the decision to turn pro then he had to tell his coach and teammates look I’m I’m I’m making the jump I’m turning pro now I’m taking advantage of this like that’s an exhausting week whereas what did Jake
Knap do he went to Florida and got ready to play with Rory mroy it’s a big big difference and and I think that there are absolutely times where coming off a win it’s worth avoiding a guy I thought this week was one of the more obvious ones where he
Was far more likely to ride that wave of momentum than he was to collapse afterwards and I thought the 3% ownership was an absolute gift on DraftKings I was so so excited to see that number we hadn’t projected like below 5% but there was a part of me that said
Man I I almost always put in like an adjustment down in ownership for the fact that a guy had won the previous week it’s just something that the PGA field does I was worried that this one they weren’t going to do that he was
Going to be like 10 to 15% and I would still have been okay with that play but the 3% just I felt so good about that yeah and the thing is he looks the part go go watch him play golf and he looks like he belongs
And and he you know just the shots I mean not this is probably an unfair argument right now but I don’t think he looks the part as much as much as Ro did the shots he hit down the stretch were unbelievable on a really really hard golf
Course yeah ekro was phenomenal the the thing that stands out about Naps game to me is the fact that he doesn’t have any weaknesses we talked about this last week we’re probably going to continue to talk about this for as long as he plays well but he’s so obviously like
Immediately known for his speed and his power he drives the ball among the longest on tour already but man this guy’s iron game is really strong he’s he’s strong with long irons he’s strong flighting wedges he’s a really good Putter and we’ve also seen some really solid touch around the
Greens like it’s just it’s it’s another difference between him he and Dunlap I think he’s just all around solid in every single category yeah and I so he’s I don’t love his everybody’s oh his golf swing so good look at how fluid it is I’m not a
Huge the all the wrist hinge and the the it is very fluid and all that but all the wrist hinge and all that like it just doesn’t appeal to me the way that like I and that’s an old SCH that’s very old school of me right that’s very different than than today
But I just I mean we’ll see he he he’s already been amazing and he you know you know we’ll get to see him in the majors under all this pressure and then we’ll know exactly where he stands and he I I see him more of a guy that runs off a
Five to eight week stretch every year where he plays awesome like top 10 top 10 top 10 win top 10 then I see him competing week in and week out I think that’s really fair because his swing to me looks like it’s really timing based
He has to be synced up all around the Rhythm has to be right the tempo has to be right and when he loses that you’re going to see some big misses we’ve already seen a pretty big left Miss creep in even in these weeks where he’s playing really well you can kind of
Interpret that two ways like I I do think it’s better to have a one-way Miss it’s just easier to address a one-way Miss than it is a two-way miss when you don’t know why like this one went left that one went right I don’t know why
Either one of them went as far off course as they were when you have just that one miss it’s a little bit easier to guard against it especially in big moments but all that said it’s been a pretty big left Miss like on six on Saturday when he air mailed the green
Left into the water that was a horrendous shot we saw the the drive at the Mexico open in the final round that didn’t clear because he there was like this big waist bunker type bunker down the left side he was even left of that into the water so that is a concern and
I think it gets to the the issues that you’re talking about as golf swi it’s just a little too timing and and uh Tempo based and you can’t you can’t talk to that left snap hook either you can talk to the weak fade can’t talk to that
Left snap hook I promise from somebody that battled his whole life and and laugh now because I don’t I don’t literally I don’t know if I could snap hook it now when I was Canadian tour that was every shot I hit was a snapbook now my miss this little weak fade and
Everybody’s everybody gets mad at me because I complain about it and they’re like man it’s in play a lot and so I I think that he’s going to have to address that because that Hammer Hammer draw just get get you in bad spots I mean
Trino is the one that I think said that to begin with he’s like man you could talk to that fade yeah very true let’s go to the API now we can even start with Jake knap here where we have him currently projected right around 12% ownership in single entries again we
Have’t projected pretty well 2 and a half% chance to win 12% chance for a top five 133% chance to miss the cut all of that gives him a pretty solid gpp score just under seven what are your thoughts on nap this week and uh and potentially
Like anyone else in that range have you have you even been able to look much at the DFS slate so far yeah I I did I actually spent some time on it today um when I was driving don’t don’t judge me um it it was hard the fir the first
Thing that I looked at like and you already talked about this briefly but like it was hard to not just look at it and go men Le 6600 like what are we doing here like so and I know you said you’re going to full fade
Um I just don’t know if I can do that I think that there might be just a part of me that’s just going to say hey I’m going to eat the 70% shock and because you can just basically build any lineup you want around it yeah but so and that
Being said like I think that it’ll come down to one of those deals I generally four lineups I’ll probably have him and two this is I think the DPP scores do so well because I am very confident that a year ago I would have looked at mimu Lee
I would have said he has our best expected Strokes game projection under $7,000 he scores really well he is a pretty good um upside for for his price as well like he I think he has the maybe fourth or fifth highest win odds solid top five odds solid made cut odds for
Everyone in that price range and I would have said okay that makes him good chalk I can get different elsewhere the gpp scores I I said this on the the lineup review that I did but I think they do a really good job of bringing us back to
The numbers and the actual full range of outcomes for a player and they succeed where our intuition fails and I think this is one of those cases where look it’s really hard to justify min 5.3% for a top five finish at 24% ownership when you could pivot to anyone
In that range senson 5.4% Nick Taylor four and a half percent Cameron Davis 6% like you’re really really not sacrificing much and then if you get that really unlikely outcome because remember even for minu Lee as well as he projects in this price range it’s still a very unlikely event
That he gets you a top five finish it’s still an unlikely event that he gets you a top 10 finish just because of how hard it is to finish that high in a golf tournament especially one of this caliber that you’re just much better off going where the payout is significantly
Higher if you actually get it yeah I mean I get it like I understand I just I also think that he hasn’t reached his Elite Talent that he has yet too so I think that like I think that if you were going to if my argument would be
He’s great value in the top 10 Market as well so that if if you’re going to compare to the Vegas numbers of like his value is very very high in the top top 10 Market in my opinion because I I believe if you look at pure talent in
This field he is really really close to that number so um I definitely understand what you’re saying I think it’s more of a thing that like the that his number is is wrong across the board not just St Kings which I I also believe nap’s number is wrong like I think he’s
Like mid sevens and I I think that once again I think he’s a maybe a more of a top 15 to you know 10 to 15 talent in the field as well so I think that that kind of goes together um you know bringing it back to to talking about Jake knap but
I’ll be um what have you seen his project what does he project at right now ownership who nap or men wo nap I’m sure men wo is like 50% we so right now we have minwoo at 24% in single entries it could definitely be higher than that in you
Know high Stakes or the really really small single entries uh that 24% is basically for like the the big giant $33 single entry of the big giant $12 single entry so it can get higher I’m gonna tell you what if you can give me if you
Could give me Min L Lee at 24% owned he would be in every single one of my lineups I think that he would be way higher owned than that like I am more than happy of eating 24 I mean we’ve seen you know shefer when he’s been ,200
Or 1,200 more than the nearest person you know be at 42% and finish 50th I I love this conversation because we’re talking about minw Lee but you can extend this to basically any chalk ever in PGA DFS I don’t want to fade minu Lee because I don’t think that he’s the best
Value in this range I want to Fain minu Lee because I basically think anybody other than Scotty sheffler this week or Rory last week in that kind of field nobody in PGA DFS should ever get to one out of every four lineups or anything close to that
So you mentioned the fact that like we think that meno might be a lot better than his current numbers I agree with that I did put that into the projections a little bit but even if we double his top five odds even if we say he’s got a
10% chance to finish in the top five there’s still a 10% chance to finish in the top five let’s even get close to doubling his top 10 odds say 20 to 25% chance of finishing the top 10 we currently have been projected for a 37% chance of finishing outside the top 40
Even if you bring that down to like 30% you’re still talking about someone who’s more likely to not help your lineup and even to hurt your lineup than to be somebody who really helps you get that take down and that’s even before you consider the ownership which again it’s
Not just about what the guys in your lineup do and how high owned or low owned they are it’s also the best chance to to have a really high finish in PJ DFS is to have a great lineup in a week where most lineups are bad the last two
Weeks I’ve had six for sixes in weeks where six for six only existed like in 5% a lineup something like that it’s so much easier to do well in that kind of environment than when 25% of lineups have a really high s or yeah 25% of lineups have a six for six
Through smaller cut this week of course so the six ver six is going to be higher but you’re going to send that argument to you know finishing outside the top 40 if minu finishes 45th and that syncs 25 to 30% of lineups that puts me in a
Really good spot where now I don’t need six guys in the top 10 or six guys in the top 20 I can survive a McIntyre like three under finish like he just did at at at PJ National I can survive if one of my guys finishes 35th
Something like that so that’s the way that I’m approaching it and it’s worked really really well so far this season but again I love this conversation because it’s about minwu Lee but it’s not really just about minwu it’s about all of PGA DFS and how we approach the
Game differently yeah and I think this is my and I think this might be a counter argument that is more directed to like a cam Davis and menu Lee is he could finish at 6600 he could finish 45th and still score the 20th most DraftKings points just because of the
Way they play golf so that’s I’m not sure he get to 20th but like 30 certainly we just saw make four Eagles at PJ National so yeah that’s that’s a really solid Point too and it’s h it’s definitely one that I consider but again I don’t think it’s enough to make him be
Worth 24% own because like you just mentioned Cam Davis can do the exact same thing he’s going to be 4% we have him basically neck and neck in terms of top five odds win odds all of those things so if you want to play someone in
That range I would say just go to Cam Davis yeah yeah I mean and like I said I I have this special spot in my heart for menie and he was I think him and ekro it was it was funny I was like man if all
People to beat are one and done it has to be ekr because it’s the two guys that I was like super ey on but back to the men Le like a guy like real real quick for for those who weren’t watching the show last year when you say you were
Really high on them what you mean is before they did anything of any value on the PGA Tour pre- Tournament you set down a marker like look this guy’s a hell of a lot better than he has shown he’s a hell of a lot better than anyone
Realizes I think he contends this week and then they did that in really really big events so H hell of a call on both of those guys for you last year it’s awesome to see how far they’ve come since then and so like my my my
Comparison would be like and this is why I still like Min Le in this in this spot is because if Denny if if a guy like Denny McCarthy great player like I love Denny I think he’s a great player he putts the eyes out of it but if he finishes 45th he’s
Get scoring probably the 45th most DraftKings points it’s just the way that they play golf so I I just I love the idea of a super high upside guy that also that even if he doesn’t play that great which we’re still talking about making a
Cut on the PJ tour so it’s still really good play um he can still score a ton of points and make Eagles and and and I mean hit hit moonball six irons into firm greens from you know 210 uh and and this week’s a little bit different because we’re gonna we get
Better we get a better golf course in my opinion I was what they did last week was just embarrassing again the PJ tour continues to just take their greatest tests and make them easy and and it is super frustrating I think Bay Hill they won’t do that uh do you have
Any insight or knowledge or think what they’re going to do there I don’t have any insight but I I am curious to see like one of the reasons why beay Hill has been so incredibly difficult the last few years is because of how firm the greens have been and I’m just not
Sure they’ve had the weather down in Florida for the greens to be that firm they’ve gotten a bunch of rain they haven’t had as much Sunshine as usual Sunshine is what bakes out the greens and makes it firm so uh very curious to see that hopefully the course fit model
Stands up to to it I think it’s really interesting by the way to note that even as differently as uh PJ National just played the corit model held really really strong so I think that’s a really good sign when when a golf course can go through different conditions and still
Emphasize the same aspects of the game this week at Bay Hill we have once again another big emphasis on driving distance 57% more predictive than usual for driving distance 21% more predictive than usual on approach play 37 % less predictive than usual on around the green play we’ve seen a lot of around
The green like Spike weeks so far this year this is the first like big big decline in around the green play so distance accur it’s minus 2% and it’s actually interesting if you go all the way back uh to 2017 accuracy is like 15 percentage points above average in the
Last few years as they’ve made this golf course a lot harder the rough has been up the greens have been firmer the fairways have been firmer accuracy is actually gone down and I I love that because when you look around the industry you see things like oh the
Rough has been so difficult it’s been so penalizing that you need to find guys who hit the Fairway no no no it’s everyone’s going to miss the Fairway it’s just too hard to hit Fairways and there are also holes where there’s like there’s a clear miss that you can’t make
Off the te and avoiding that is going to put you in the rough so you actually almost have to hit it in the rough uh just to make sure that you don’t make the huge mistake off the te so everyone’s going to hit in the rough so what’s the difference maker it’s making
Sure that you have a locked Club when you’re in the rough so you can still get out of it making sure that you are the type of player who has the speed to get through that rough so even if you have to hit it over water from the rough like
On number eight or number 16 something like that you can do it instead of being you know a Russell Henley type trying to take a long iron out of that and just chunking it right into the water so and not just model goes against the like industry narrative yeah and not just the
Not just just the the lofted club and the speed but to be able to hit it out of the rough and hit it with the speed to create enough spin to stop the ball on firm greens as well so I think that that has a lot to do with it too like
That if you put I mean I I haven’t seen you hitting a gol seen you hit a golf ball in the while but I know you swing it a lot harder than I I do if we both have 130 you know from the rough you’re probably hitting a gap wedge semi flyer
With more speed than my pitching wedge and your ball is going to stop fast they might fly to the same spot but mine’s going to go 10 feet further when you get really firm greens that makes a huge huge difference and the guys that hit it
Far can have the ability to hit it with more speed with the irons too so You’ chip it close anyway and still make par don’t don’t s yourself too far you can’t you just can’t win though you just can’t win that way yeah it’s a good
Point I I think by the way it’s also like it’s interesting to see um some like somebody who has obviously played really well here lately is Victor hey that distance plus plus approach play minus around the green play like that is his music so it’s good to see
That and it it’s also so interesting because just like driving accuracy was more predictive here going back before they they really made it uh super difficult in like 2019 I it might have even been 2020 the first year that they made it super difficult since then
Around the green play has also tanked so it used to be more predictive here than it has been in the last few years because of these Chang so again it’ll be interesting to see exactly what the conditions are like this year um maybe it’s worth making some some different
Skill set Stacks like if you’re starting with hin if you’re starting with Cory Connor something like that you just continue with guys who are really great ball striking and don’t have the short game play and then also build some lineups that what if short game does
Matter a little bit more this week than it has in the past few years um before we get to one and done one question from a DFS perspective you said you’ve taken a decent look look at at this late so far can you name me three guys that you
Think will be in your DFS lineup can be any price range oh man there was uh is the uh one of the one of the one of the foreigners is really cheap um way too cheap uh goly uh hogard maybe is he like low sevens yeah 7 two yeah hoggard’s W
Um I mean the it’s hard to not say menu Le just because I I think that but the other um the top of the the top of the board I’m I think I’m gonna I think you’re it’s crazy you just said that but I think I’m going to lean to skill set
Stacks um I think that I I love Victor hin but I have a feeling he’s going to be a little bit higher owned than than some of the other so like the guy that I kind of lean to in that area is oberg I
Think he has a I think you know has the skill to compete here and I’m hoping that he comes in much lower owned it’s so funny that you say oberg because my first one is going to be Xander shley and one of the points that I’m going to make about shley is when
You look at The Strokes game profiles that we have for everybody one of the really unique things about choffle is just how crazy good he is all around his worst category is gaining 0.12 Strokes per round against this field so most most weeks you know these numbers would
Would be even higher but against this field he gains a012 Strokes per round with driving distance and around the green play those are his worst for comparison sake the second best worst skill set for any player in this field ludvig oberg 0.3 Strokes per round around the green so it’s funny you went
To oberg kind of the same thing it’s just really really strong allaround players so shley is going to be my number one he is the highest gpp scorer we’ve got him projected at 15% ownership right now for comparison sakes 30% chance of a top five so significantly
Higher top five odds than his ownership only a 10% chance of finishing outside the top 40 that’s the kind of ratio that I like I’m even tempted to say Sheffer as my second and start with two different studs uh Sheffer highing away the second highest jpp score at 49 schley’s is 66
Again 39% chance that sheffler finishes in the top five just an 8% chance that he finishes outside the top 40 again it’s just like you just don’t see that type of distribution very often in PGA it’s so much or guys are typically so much more likely to have a floor type
Outcome than a cealing outcome for your DFS lineups both of those guys have their distributions flipped so I really like that start you’re going to have to get a little bit risky down at the bottom but I think this is a good week to do that you can go like full upside
Guys like sep straa Lucas Glover Cam Davis those types uh all have high gpp scores but my third instead is going to be Adam Scott we’ve talked about him a lot so far this year I continue to believe he is among if not the single most underrated golfer in the world
Right now another guy with a really strong allaround game and he’s super along his approach play has gotten better he’s one of the better Putters in the world now and I don’t think people realize how much more accurate he’s been off the te this year and really like just in the last 10
Events or so that he’s played than he had been prior that had been a really big weakness in his game he’s turned it into a strength again I just think he’s a much better player Than People realize at this point in his career yeah so I I
I love Sheffer this week um so we had a conversation last week about the grass type change with the bud and uh being a Texas boy I going to Bermuda greens I truly believe that um it’s going to kind of depend on the ownership but that’s kind of where I
Was leading for one and done um uh my top three for one and done were were Xander hin and and Shaway that was the three that I kind of kind of thought that I was going to lean to um so all of those make a lot of sense to
Me a Adam Scott this week as well um it’s just one of those are they are they having a cut this week or are we back to no cut at all it’s it’s the top 1550 in ties plus within 10 Strokes again okay I I looked for it forever today and I
Never I never saw it so the one more point that I want to bring up and and I know we’re kind of going a little longer than we talked about going but there’s a really strong correlation between Bay Hill and Lynx Gulf have you ever noticed
That I haven’t so just like look back at the guys that play well here and and then go compare them to to Links Golf and the numbers correlate strangely well for a long time I forget where I read it so I I tend to read a lot of stuff from
Guys that are not in the American market so I bet it’s a one of the Europe European um just because they give a different perspective than what we have right um so and after I read that and got the looking at it um you know it makes me wonder guys like Matt
Fitzpatrick and and Adam Scott and some of these guys like if that’s a and I don’t I don’t know what where that correlation comes from because it doesn’t make a ton of sense to me but I think it probably comes from performance in Wind because this golf course
Obviously gets a ton of wind a lot of years and it’s so interesting you just said Fitzpatrick because I’m looking at Josh’s splits tool right now where Wendy is one of the splits you can look at Matt Fitzpatrick is fifth in this field behind only Rory Scotty shafley and
Havin so I think that that checks out in that regard yeah um do you have a have you have you thought about one and done do you know where you’re going to lean here this is the first week where I really don’t have a strong take in any
Direction which makes me think it’s a pretty good week to go with Scotty uh I I also I don’t know if you saw um there was a report that he has made some pretty significant changes with the putter let me let me see if I can find
Exactly what the report was but as I was reading through it it was like you know every single time that Justin and I have talked about what we would like to see him do with the putter it’s like it sounds like he’s doing exactly that so
Let me see if I can find that report real quick yeah I I just think that I I the changes obviously I didn’t know about that that that is that that makes a difference I just think the gr changes and all that just helps here they are from Todd Lewis uh new Spider
Mallet putter half inch of length added to the Putter and then he’s now uh getting rid of using the line for alignment so we’ve talked basically about you know Kevin kizner was the one who said he would like to see Scotty more upright in his putting just like he
Is with his ball striking and even how he is chipping we know how good his short game is adding half an inch probably is to help him be more upright and then removing the line we’ve talked about how much he seems to struggle with alignment like he’s making the exact two
Changes that we wanted to see so I do think there’s a much better chance this week that he does figure out the Putter and ride that world class ball striking to a win than in any other event so far this year yeah the biggest deal is to the Mallet is awesome in my
Opinion um I wonder if he’s using the Mallet with the line on it and not using the line on the ball or if he’s just using a blank top Mallet that’s a that because that’s a lot of I’m not smart enough to know about it um but it has a
Lot to do with the way your eyes work and stuff like that I went and saw a guy in Richardson recently his name is Blair Phillips he’s the one that invented that stability shaft that goes that became really popular he literally to I used a two ballb Putter and he took the back
Line and Whited it out and I was like what are you doing he’s like well you lined it up uh right Edge every time now L it up and I lined it up dead center every time and I was like how what doesn’t even make sense so
I wonder if he if he went with something like that because I I consider myself pretty high golf IQ person I was like there’s no way this works and sure enough it was like dead center every single time and so a lot of these guys
Are just super smart I love the I I hope I don’t really even care if he’s using a line on the putter or not to be honest I just hope he is goes up out there and he’s like I’m just going to be an athlete I’m just going to make make my
Ball go in the hole you’re the best T green player of all time right now MH yeah I think I agree so I I would say at this point our leading candidate for one andone is Scotty sheffler but it doesn’t seem like we’re anywhere near settled on
That so we’ll talk about it hin has to get some attention yeah he does and it I don’t really want to go this route because I think we can just make our best oneand done selections independently but if the ownership projections are as they currently are
For us which is uh havin at 24% Rory 23% Scotty 29% shley 15% I can pretty confidently say I won’t be using havland at least in single entry even though I think he’s a really solid play again this week so it would be somewhat nice to have that like quote unquote hedge
Over DFS play with the one andone but again I I don’t want our decision to come down to what’s better as a hedge to my DFS lineups I want to make the best decision we can for one and done but uh yeah havin will be in the conversation
Scotty will be in the conversation and then uh there are also plenty of options where you can get a little bit more contrarian and hope that the the trend so far this year where favorites aren’t winning just continues which by the way I don’t think is a trend that anyone
Should be paying attention to the fact that a favorite hasn’t won yet this year doesn’t mean that a favorite isn’t still the favorite this week it’s kind of just look we are all Fooled by Randomness all the damn time and I think this is another one of those instances well and
It I think that it just shows you how deep the fields are too I mean that should like and it’s just so happened that the other guys the other guys have had their best over the favorites when the maybe the favorites have yet to put four rounds of
Their best together I I think it’s also too like some of the winners Pavan jnap for example they were only as big of underdogs as they were because we didn’t quite yet have familiarity with them like if those events were three months later they would have been much lower
Odds just based on who we now know them to be not just because of what they did when they won but all of the other results of that that that they’re having and so even if you just like reverse the order they still would be at much longer
Or much shorter odds than they actually were at that time that’s a great point they they came out and won before they strung together a bunch of top 50 yeah which I if anything like that’s just another reason and I think it’s just another reason to say like you don’t actually
Have to see it before you believe that it can happen especially in PGA sometimes it’s going to come out of the blue not everyone is going to be like cam young where they showed the potential to win 10 times before they actually come through sometimes all it
Takes is that one instance of being in contention and they can get it done in that time yeah sorry my lights went out for so no reason in my house um any any final thoughts on this week no I I just hope that the PJ tour
Will f set it up like a PGA Tour golf course I think that’s my biggest thought for the week I I like I love this golf tournament I love this place I’ve been lucky enough to be on site a few times never for the tournament but just to be there
Um yeah I I just I just want to be a real golf course and and I understand the weather the weather has something but they mowed that rough down last week on purpose they knew what they were doing if if you you know it I don’t know
It’s just I just want him to to to play and and have a good test that that actually is a really really good reminder for the final thing that I want to touch on which is these pick them sites prize picks Underdog first of all they’re a hell of
A lot of fun you can use promo code ftn to sign up on either one um but I think there’s a huge Edge on both of them early in the week because these sites don’t have any more information than we do about how a golf course is going to
Play so you watch you go on PGA Tour live you watch the first first hour of golf you look at the whole by ho scoring on Daya golf something like that you can start to get a really good sense of how the course is playing and the the projections on priz
Picks and Underdog that you can pick in those in those games those pick them games they’re not going to change that quickly so you get some really really strong opportunities where it’s like look these sites don’t realize how easy it’s playing so far this week or they don’t realize how difficult it’s playing
So far this week you can just build plays based on that and create a really big Edge so uh we will be in the PGA Discord we’ll be in the pickham games Discord over on ftn talking through all of that again sign up at either one with
Promo code ftn sign up for both really because who knows which site is going to have the better picks available uh that’s the final thing that I have for this week yeah we got to be careful we want to grow but we don’t want to grow
So much that we get our secrets out too so like you know let everybody listen and and take advantage of what we can because it it won’t last forever so I agree like just be Forward Thinking with it you can actually play those in Texas can’t you prize picks I don’t I don’t
Know about the other one but I know I can’t prize picks beautiful you might even be able to play Underdog as well we’ll have to we’ll have to figure that out and if you can we’ll get you signed up so that you can drop some plays drop
Some wisdom in those channels as well thanks everybody for tuning in we’ll catch you next time
