On this episode I’m joined by Mike Carpanini and Dave Utnick to discuss the current state of the PGA before breaking down Bay Hill and the field for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Classic.
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Ladies and gentlemen boys and girls children of all ages this is at the helm Sports I your host Derek Helm thank you for joining me for episode 118 please be sure to follow And subscribe on Apple podcast and Spotify leave those five star reviews would be greatly appreciated if you are watching
On YouTube make sure you’re subscribed to the channel also hit that like button goes a long way towards getting us new listeners got a big tournament coming up next week in the players so more listeners more viewers we can get always appreciate down in the comments section
Let me know up top who do you choose would you rather play Rory mroy or Scotty sheffler or if you’re playing both of them go ahead you could put that in there too but kind of curious this week to see where people are leaning whether they’re going one or the other
Or they’re going to try try and jam both of them in there so put that down in the comment section this week we’ll be diving into the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational quickly and I mean really quickly gonna recap the Honda cognizant classic disaster that that was but joining me we have Mike
Carpanini Mike how we doing boys how are you now and Dave uick gentlemen how we doing Dave so did you guys have a chance to watch the disaster of uh Honda cognizant or anything watch a little on Saturday there wasn’t I mean it wasn’t that interesting in general saw where Rory should have
Taken a drop in the water on what was it 15 16 yeah yeah instead decided to you know get himself soaked with water and still ended up having to take a penalty but yeah that that was basically where where I kind of mentally and emotionally checked out it just I had a couple
DraftKings lineups that looked pretty good had a five of six that was way up there and it was Rory and then it was uh bud colie and basically at the same time of of Rory doing that bud collie completely fell apart and that lineup just went to Absolute crap but yeah I
Mean the tournament as a whole obviously everybody freaked out on Thursday we’re we’re used to it playing very very difficult and it was optimal scoring position or conditions really no weather whatsoever and and everybody was just tearing the course up so not what we’re
Used to I know a lot of people were not happy got a little bit more difficult as the weekend went on and then the PGA just obviously completely mishandling Sunday they could have easily got that in but we have another tournament finish on a Monday and obviously most people
Are working including myself and I didn’t even get to see the end of it good for Austin ekro good for everyone that was on him just continue this terrible terrible start to the season where I mean other people are hitting outrights but I am not at all should
Have been on the Hideki one but obviously wasn’t and you know it’s it’s been a rough start to the season do you guys have any thoughts as far as that goes just what what it’s been so far these long shot winners Dave I mean you have any
Thoughts I mean it’s well have I had a minimum ticket last week so was really hoping that he pulled it out at the end instead of echr but I mean you kind of see it with the talent that has left the tour it’s kind of brought everybody a
Little bit closer together in terms of outright odds and you know Talent level for each of the players there but I mean we haven’t had anybody sniff you know shorter than what was it Jake nap was the longest one at like 40 to one 40 y y
Basically an alternate event you know an alternate Mainstay event there but um you know I’ve got a Hideki live outright winner in the books already this year uh so I’m not complaining just yet but um you know I think this might be the week that somebody finally from the top of
The board finally takes it down yeah I I hope so because I mean for forget about betting for a second I mean obviously that that’s the main focus but just from a PGA standpoint it it just it’s a disaster I I just I don’t see how they
Get new viewers or or new engagement from fans and and you’re losing some of the the lifelong fans as well I mean you know you could say what you want about Talent leaving for for live and obviously that that makes a huge case but I I think the bigger problem is just
The way the PGA has handled everything every step of the way it’s just they reacted to live and came up with these Signature Events and they haven’t worked out and then now this year they’re basically making them no cut events and and that hasn’t worked out and it’s just everything that they’re
Doing I mean as as as a Sports organization as as an entertainment organization you got to try new things but it’s just like no matter what they try it’s as if they have no idea what they’re doing and it’s just reactionary rather than actually thinking it out and
Just saying hey this sounds like a good idea M Mike what are your thoughts on on all of it I said when we first started discussing Liv I I said probably this last summer PGA shouldn’t have changed any just be the pgaa uh the players who
Want to go play that livestyle can go play that livestyle and you know the vast majority just be the PGA and fix the payout like that that that was that was the only thing that needed to be done in incentivize the players like all this nonsense is so dumb so dumb so now
You have this like hybrid of PGA with trying to you know copycat or piggyback some of the dumb [ __ ] on live and and and you’re left in no man’s land like honestly like all of the players we love today were nobodies at some point like
If we get a new crop of nobodies who eventually get to be fan favorites and stuff like that like that nap kid I I like you know I think that nap kid could could be okay like let’s see how the next six months year five years shakes out like why they’re changing course
I’ll never under I just don’t get it I just don’t get it and I think that’s just in general the PGA is toned deaf they have absolutely no idea what their fans want or even do they even care what their fans want at this point I think
That might be what it is is just that they’re just they’ve they’ve been around for so long that the people that are still making decisions it’s it’s just they are out of touch but at the same time they don’t care they’re just collecting paychecks they know the paychecks are
Going to keep coming the sponsor money is going to come but at some point if they keep running this into the ground it’s not gonna come see I disagree though I I I don’t think they like I almost wish they were complacent so this way they would have just left it
Alone like if they were if they didn’t care they would have left it alone it’s like they’re letting you know whatever if you want to call them old and sty and whatever you know it feels like the [ __ ] meme like you know how do you do fellow kids like just
Either be the PGA the old man PGA or you know if you really think you need to get [ __ ] younger which I don’t think you need to do like tiger was 20 at one point like you know spe DJ like all these players were kids at one point
Like let them come up but if you wanted to go that way go that way confidently like this is you’re you’re just like I said no man’s land and baseball had that problem also and baseball was getting old and baseball was more popular last year than it ever was because they made
Radical changes but they were listening to the fans when they did it they made stuff that the fans wanted they wanted shorter games and I’m not exactly sure what it is that PGA fans want at this point but I can tell you one thing I
Love seeing a cut I don’t you know it makes there some suspense to the event especially for you know DFS the no cut events suck I would much rather be playing with a cut than you know necessarily need the best 70 players in the world in a single event together
Give me 150 with a cut I honestly don’t care I would prefer having a cut than having this style of elevated event which is really going to show its teth this week I think even more than Genesis because there were a lot of miscuts to
Genesis even though it was only 10 to 15 players as it relates to DFS players at least there was really heavy ownership in players that missed the cut and and going into that tournament you were looking at what 10 11 guys missing the cut it ended up being more than that but
The way that this is going to be set up I mean six of s is going to be stupid high again this week unless you know something the same happens where just all your chalk misses but this is not this is not what the Arnold pomin veral
Is supposed to be here you know we’re basically playing a quasi exhibition yes there’s a big money up top but everyone makes the cut and that’s no fun yeah it it’s basically the equivalent of a participation trophy I mean it’s just you’re glad handing all these guys just oh please don’t go take
The money from from the Saudis here here here here just guaranteed money here you go but you could have done that without changing the fabric of the actual tournaments you could have just put more money in the purse and and that’s all you had to do that’s all you had to do
Like if you and you know in in instead of instead of 70 manfields make it 100 and then cut to to 50 I mean at least make it so so that it’s I I it’s just completely reactionary and overreaction it it’s at some point something’s got to
Change and there’s no reason I mean PGA play has got the longest season we play week after week with a very similar style of tournament did any of you guys watch the match I forgot it was on until I think there was two holes left and I was like
Oh [ __ ] this is on I wasn’t expecting anyone to W you know to any of that to be a yes but it was kind of cool what why doesn’t the PGA take a week and do something different they already killed match play they killed all the other
Formats why don’t they just do something different every once in a while where it doesn’t need to be week after week but we really replay the same [ __ ] week after week at this point in the same format the stuff that means more has no Cuts go in a different direction give me
Something that’s a little bit different and interesting if you’re really going to go out on a limb and try something but this isn’t it see I don’t know how how like if you were watching golf seriously like way back in the day Shell’s Wonderful World of Golf and granted like
Even it was on the tail end even when I was on a kid like I watched mostly reruns but that was a one-on-one match play that they just kind of tell guys just they they got two players together and and hey let’s go play 18 holes and
You know live mics the whole way through and you know it was it was a cool thing like you know they used to run reruns on the Golf Channel all the time when I was I mean they might still do like you know who knows I don’t not watching Golf
Channel like I did when I was a kid but you know you pre-tape all that [ __ ] in the world you throw it in there week after week like new episodes like season it breaks up the monot like something as silly as that would then kind of just
Draw you to the to the standard old you know Thursday through Sunday stuff it’s something different it’s something excit oh the guy that I saw this week on on shell like I’m want to go watch him play just dumb [ __ ] like that that you could
Just go back to it worked so well back in the day like [ __ ] like that like this this dumb ass M what did they play in the match I thought it was only like 12 holes right it was 12 holes that was at night but one good thing that they did
Is they put a mic on Max hom who’s wildly entertaining you talk about creating Stars I mean Rory is not great on TV but Max homa’s funny you know it was entertaining and they could really do this and almost embrace it it was 12 holes it was at night at a municipal
Course doesn’t sound like much but it was interesting to watch I had it on his background and you know it was just something different I kind of found it interesting yeah absolutely and and really I mean what you could do is especially during the swing season you
Know do do one every week you know the the the big names aren’t playing in most of these tournaments anyway so put them in a a match each week you have a different match with with one of these guys and you know Netflix is only going
To do so much and show you so much and no one’s really GNA tune into that unless they already care about golf whereas you can get new viewers when you know uh obviously football has it locked down in the fall but you put it on a
Saturday night or a Friday night or even a Wednesday night and just put it on a night where football isn’t on and get some engagement and and get people seeing these guys and getting their personalities and that that’s a way to do it it’s how you create Stars I mean the
One thing that most of these tournaments this year have even with long shot winners is you’ve had Stars somewhat in contention so you’re still highlighting some of these Stars here but ensuring that you know the best players in the world make the cut this week it’s just
Not the way of doing it but for the most part I mean The Season’s been interesting you have stories you have an amateur that’s one you’ve got guys coming out of the back of the pack that are just winning I mean there’s still you know the PGA still creates
Stories and could create Stars so in some of this maybe it’s good that we’re even getting more player recognition from the back of the field players that we normally play at 60 you know 6K and around that we know the names but then they become more relevant to the general public once they’ve
Won yeah remember that it’s the first weekend of March like and I’m guilty of it myself like it’s still just the first weekend of March yeah you know we’re talking you know January February golf here so you know let let’s see how this kind of progresses itself through you
Know through the TPC through the Masters through the open like once we get into full-fledged Spring and Summer Golf season you know if if we’re still talking the same tune you know first week of August different story I mean I’ll be fully honest too
I’m sure if I had hit an outright or two I probably wouldn’t be as angry right now but enough complaining we we can dive into this week we have a a signature event here it’s the fourth one of the year so let’s dive into the Arnold Palmer now obviously we’re played at Bay
Hill Country Club as the name States this is the Arnold Palmer Invitational so Arnold Palmer is going to host it at bill now beill is one of the longer standing courses that we’ve played it’s pretty difficult 7,466 yard par 72 with Bermuda greens there are 10 par fours four par 3es four
Par fives now all the par four or all the par 3es are pretty long all of them are over 200 yards play between 200 230 yards so those are going to be pretty difficult holes the par fivs are obviously the easiest on the course with the
516th hole being the easiest hole on the course I mean it it’s pretty short most guys will be able to get there in two probably going to see a pretty high birdie rate and and a pretty good Eagle rate on that one the closing 18th hole
Is the most difficult with a 22% bogey rate and an 8% double or worst so I mean you can have guys on on Friday coming down the stretch and it looks like they’re going to make the cut and all of a sudden they get to that 18th hole and
It could be some trouble so definitely want to keep an eye on that also I do think that it makes a little bit of sense from a showdown standpoint that if you guys got your guys are going off of one I think it makes a little bit more
Sense for birdie streaks and and things of that nature rather than starting off a 10 and then having to you know make the turn at 1821 it’s a little bit more difficult so just something to keep in mind there there is a good amount of water here comes into hole comes into
Play on nine holes now you can see it on on a lot more holes than that so just the sight of that water might get in some guys heads but comes into play in nine holes and there are 84 bunkers on on the course as well so definitely a
Lot of difficulty and and a lot of Hazards around so strategically you want to generally aim towards accuracy a little bit over distance now recently we have seen got bombers come out here and just basically try and put it out there as far as they possibly can because
They’d rather be hitting wedges out of the rof than hitting longer irons because we do see a ton of long irons here 30% of all approach shots come from 200 plus yards so almost a third of shots are coming from them long irons and and you’re going you’re going to
Want guys that are good from over 200 yards now obviously as a result hitting from further away we have a lower G percentage greens and regulation coming in about 60% which is about 6% 5% lower than to average as far as driving distance goes also as I said before most guys are
Are kind of going for accuracy instead of power so only 277 yards is the average drive here so comes in pretty pretty low and then 64% of Fairways are hit the rough generally is pretty penal here so you do want to play at of the Fairway and then they’ve shaved down the
Rough the past couple years around the greens and around these hazards so you’ll see a lot of runoff into the bunkers or even into the water on a lot of these holes and then the big thing is is wind I mean we’ve seen it cause absolute Carnage here on some of these
Weekends if you go back through some of these tournaments I mean really it’s it’s been the wind that basically has determined the outcome here so you definitely want to keep an eye on that obviously it can change pretty quickly but as of right now Thursday doesn’t
Look too bad Friday a little bit more maybe around 10 15 miles an hour in the afternoon and then Saturday it looks like it’s going to to pick up quite a bit we could see somewhere around 25 miles an hour so not so much before the
Cut but once we get to the weekend going to see a a little bit more maybe we see some Carnage like we’ve seen in the past but that’s basically what we’re looking at as far as the course goes for this week but Dave what what are you looking
For in golfers this week I mean you pretty much hit it um long irons uh driving accuracy uh courses in Florida you want to stay off the beach and out of the water um you want to make sure that you’re hitting Fairways just to be in position to avoid big numbers here so
Pretty much in lock step with everything that you covered ball Strikers and accuracy a little bit more emphasis this week yeah Mike anything anything you want to add I mean I always want ball Strikers but you know specifically here it’s you brought up wi that I’m glad you
Did the best way to you know kind of work with the wind is to cut through the wind so I I want I want really really crisp iron shots coming into a lot of these greens um more greens you hit the less you have to chip you have you have
To to you know be in the bunkers you know especially that like you said the 200 range uh nobody is proficient in 200 yards unless you’re a good ball Striker yeah so if we dive into the field obviously it’s a big boy event we
Got we got a lot of the big names here up top Scotty Sheffer 11,300 Rory right below him at 10,6 but if we go from ludvig Oar up from 9,500 up Dave what what are you thinking here who who do you like in in the higher end range here so I saw
Scotty was playing around with a new putter but it’s the same putter that Mike uses and I’ve seen Mike three putt lots and lots on rounds that we’ve played so I don’t know if that’s actually a good thing or not but him trying anything different with the
Putter at this Point’s a good idea um for me I mean outside of a couple bad holes from Rory he was number one in t green last week he played really well in general I think this course sets up for him to you know really do some damage um
He complete bomber but really I mean just his TD green game is extremely strong I like Victor hin we haven’t seen him much but I think his game fits well for here especially if he can hit green some recomendation and we’re not playing from around the green much um and Xander
Shafley uh actually I mean Xander and L here both do a lot of what you need to do to win at this course uh accuracy and just I mean ludvig is an absolute monster off the te so um that’s really where I’m looking um I don’t like a lot of it up
Here I think this is where like you said to start the show um a lot of your decisions are going to be made more up top than down low this week yeah absolutely and as of right now I’m kind of leaning towards playing both Scotty and Rory and
The bulk of my lineups being with one of those two in it I mean you you made the case for Rory obviously both of these guys have great course history they’re the two best in the field for a reason and I just I could see it maybe for once
We come down to Sunday and and these two are battling it out but at the very least I I definitely see one of these two being up there in in the top five or or contending on Sunday so I do like it quite a bit as far as Scotty goes and
The putter goes I I think it’s a little bit less of an emphasis this week because it you know it’s not as much of a birdie Fest and these greens can be extremely fast and and they can make some good putters look bad so if it evens out the the putting a
Little bit for the entire field I do think that plays into his strengths a little bit more so I do like Scotty and as as you said Rory has just been striking the ball very well has played this place incredibly well so I I I like
The two of them can’t lay you know if he beats me he beats me and obviously he definitely can but I don’t think I’m gonna be able to get there and then I don’t think I want to play Both of havland and Xander right now I lean havland but I do worry
It’s just you know since since he fired his short game coach just hasn’t been as good around the greens this year and it just looks a little bit off he hasn’t been terrible you know but hasn’t looked like the havin we saw last year so maybe he’s
Still getting back into it as as Mike said earlier it’s still early in the year so I mean he could definitely click has played well here before but as of right now I I don’t know if I’m going to get there on him or Xander because Xander hasn’t played well here but he’s
Played very well so far this year so it’s going to be hard not to click one of those two and then lud VI oer I I’m I’m in 9,500 hits the ball long hits the ball straight I I think it’s it’s a great course for him and I’ve actually made an
Outright on him bet Rivers actually offered me a 25% boost so I got him at 25 to one there and then I took the DraftKings boost as well got him at 21 there so I I’ve bet lud vob bear and then actually might as well just say
We’re not in in this range yet but right below him Jordan spe I I’ve bet him is well 20 to1 I I I like that number and I I do like him here but Mike what are you thinking here at the top I I I I’m not gonna be able to get
Away from Scotty like ever like in for the foreseeable future he’s he’s the worst first putter on the first five pages of this you know slate and he’s still the best player in the field and it’s not close so you know if he ever just finds a way to make a couple of
Putts like it’s runaways like it’s it’s crazy how how different the last couple of years could have went if he putted if if you gave him tiger level putting like tiger 20 years ago you know where he made absolutely everything he looked at shefer would be on the same type of run
Um Rory I I agree like I think he’s coming into form a couple holes different go a couple holes go different last week you know could have been a very different tournament um you know I’m not you guys covered the red like I’m think I’m GNA start a lot of my
Lineups at L I really do and just fade you know the lineups where I’m not trying to jam Scotty like I’m I think I’m okay starting at L yeah I I think that’s probably going to be my strategy too is is Rory and and Sheffer and then lineups where I’m not
Doing that I I think I’m probably going to start with ludvig spe and and maybe even just start with the both of them you know I I said it be fourth place both appearances at Bay Hill gained eight Strokes T to Green in 2023 seven and a half Strokes T Green in
2021 you know he’s had several birdie chances last year but just couldn’t get there on Sunday but he he was close to the lead there and then sniffing it before that fourth place finish also played well so far this year six place last time out at Waste Management 39th
At Pebble third at centry so like like what he’s been doing so far this year over the last 50 rounds he’s 11th in bogey avoidance which is definitely needed here and then top 24 in good drives gained and strokes gained off the te which generally we don’t see that
Very much from speed so that’s promising and he’s also fifth in sand saves and sixth on par five scoring so I I like where his game’s at I like the the course history and I I’m actually going to be playing quite a bit of speed but
If we move a little bit further down here this is where it it’s going to get a little bit more spotty Sam Burns has been up and down here miscut ninth miscut the past couple years I I do actually like Max H though you know he
Hasn’t been great here but 14th 17th and 10th his last three times I I do think that this is a course that fits him pretty well but Dave what what are you thinking in the lower nines here I was looking into Colin Mo cwa’s uh course history here and it doesn’t
Look very good but from what we’ve talked about so far you’d think that this has to be a uh you know course that he would be a pretty good course fit here um I agree with you on homo um he played pretty well here last year BL
Came 17th lost a bunch of Strokes putting so so I think he matches up well for this course uh Justin Thomas really scares me um especially off the tea on this course think you know water is too much in play for him he’s a bit uh volatile um I guess we’re stopping at
Nines right uh yeah um yeah uh not as high on speed as uh you are and Sam Burns I can’t ever seem to get right but homean I’m going to have to dive deep a little bit into morawa here um course history versus I mean current form isn’t
Even that good but I think his game matches well yeah statistically I mean he he rates out very well in my model when I I said it to 24 rounds he he’s pretty pretty high up there top 10 but as you said I mean missed the cut last year I
Think he came ninth his first time here I think that was a couple years ago maybe 2020 2021 so has a good finish here his first time playing and then a miscut so can’t really make much out of course history but as you said just I don’t know he
He’s been off lately and I similar to havin it’s just something not terrible but just something doesn’t seem like it’s clicking for him so I don’t know if I’m going to get there oddly it’s very rare for me to say but I I think I’m going to go H over him and
In larger field gpps actually don’t mind Justin Thomas I mean as you said it does scare me off off the tea here but I don’t know I I at 9,000 if he’s going to come in sub 10% I I think it could be a good leverage play obviously
Missed the cut at the Genesis but prior to that was on a tear you know he was knocking on the door for for some wins there so I I I think I’m willing to go back but Mike what are you thinking here in the lower
Nines give me all the burns the kid is on a [ __ ] heater so I I’ll just take that at 9 you know 9:3 and and all day long um I’m still a believer in hom this year uh you know he had a couple of weeks there where it was a little rocky
But seemed to start putting it together last week and same thing with JT like you know you’re right off the tea scares me here um but you know especially if you’re telling me he’s low owned and you know you guys know I don’t give a [ __ ]
But if that’s going to help kind of push him into some of my lineups I’m I’m I think I’m okay with it is he going to be low on as of right now he’s showing only 10% and I mean if you look at the names around him it makes
Sense and actually zalot Taurus right now is showing around 16 to 18% so looks like a lot of people are are are either going up top or or actually dropping down to zalatoris and I’ll actually be Fad in zalatoris this week I just hasn’t really played well here
And I mean I know he’s been playing better since since coming back off the injury and and this year he’s looked good but 53rd 38th last time out and I mean you could say well he just came second at the Genesis well last year he came 53rd and he came fourth at the
Genesis so the previous year he actually played pretty well leading in and and came 38th so hasn’t really been playing well and I don’t know if he’s going to be that highly owned I’m fine skipping over him and guy that hasn’t really putt well at all here hasn’t really putt well
On the Florida swing in his career so if he’s going to get popular I I’m fine skipping over him but Mike what what do you think for the AK range I want decky I’m gonna have a lot of right yeah I mean you know nobody else
Was saying anything he was you know Hing techie got I just it’s you know give me a ball Striker here I don’t think putting’s gonna be super in play um you know fleetwood’s been playing pretty good this year I feel like it’s a Fitzy week I have no
Reason to believe you know I have nothing to back that up um but I just feel Fitzy week you know and then you know Dey at eight I think is super like what’s his number this week uh 50 I I’ve yeah I’ve seen it down at 40
As well so somebody’s got to be betting him but as far as the DraftKings play goes I I don’t think he’s going to be very popular so I I don’t hate it I like the Fitzpatrick Hall I mean he’s only missed two cuts in nine appearances here but otherwise hasn’t finished worse than
27th and 14th was his La his worst finish in the last five years four top 10 finishes over that span second in 2019 he’s never lost Strokes putting on this course looked pretty good last week except for a couple hiccups so I I like Fitzpatrick quite a bit I’ve bet him a
Top 20 so I I do like that and then cam young has been on fire I I generally don’t play him but I don’t know it’s definitely going to be it’s going to be a decision this week because 10th and 13th the two times he’s played
Here and with the recent form it’s going to be hard not to put cam young in in some lineups here but Dave what are you thinking in the AK range um gonna have to watch ownership for zot Tores but I do like him this week um I have three outrights in this
Range um salauris at 43 to1 with a 365 boost Fitzpatrick at 35 to1 and I just bet the number on W mclark at 55 I don’t know if I’m going to play him on DraftKings might just stick with the outright there but thought the number was just wrong yeah
Um I like the accuracy out of this range uh Fitzpatrick I like as a DraftKings play also uh Tommy Fleetwood uh and Tom Kim um do like the matama call uh just seems to his game just seems to be rounding out into form and I mean that
Sunday that he won he was just lights out and that was the last time we saw him so no reason to think that you know he’s not in Peak form at this moment um it’s really about it in the 8K range I’m Giving Up on sunj until I see
Signs of life I never play Cameron young um I’ll dive into Jason day a little bit but probably won’t get there either kind of stick with this 8500 and above uh range yeah you make a good point with sunjay I might just bite the bullet and play him just because I’ve been playing
Him all year and it it’s it’s cost me but I’d rather be early than be late and at only 8,000 I think it’s a pretty good price it’s a pretty good course for him but I don’t know I I could be talked out of it you brought up Jason day actually
I was as I was writing my article he was going to be my fade of the week but looking further into it I mean he’s been playing very well Ninth Place at the Genesis sixth place at the at PE Beach and actually been striking the irons
Very well so I I do think that you can make a case for him at only 8,200 with with how well he’s been playing I think that’s fine came 10th year last year so I I’m actually fine going to Jason day and I I think a lot of people are going
To skip over him so at only 88,200 I I I think it’s a pretty good price for for what he offers anyone else we like here in the AK or or you want to jump down to the sevens and I think I’m just going to bet
Fitz every week until he uh wins for what it’s worth because that’s how I’ve started the year and we’re just going to keep riding that train yeah I I I bet him last week to win and I was very close to to doing it again this week but I ended up going the
Top 20 instead so I mean if he he wins I’ll still win some money so I’m fine rooting for it rooting for you on the uh for him to win it all so you can win your top 20 I bet there there we go well
Did what did you get him at what what was the outright 35 okay that’s not bad in this field plus you know shorten field but it’s really coming down to I bet him a few times this year already he’s been every week you have a case for
Fitzpatrick and I think we’re just gonna he’s gonna be the player I lose a whole bunch of money on if he doesn’t win this year yeah that was hii for me last year what was that Mike he’ll get one eventually get too yeah it’s it’s generally the Florida
Swing where he plays well so I could I could definitely see it being here so definitely going to play him and DraftKings if we drop down into the sevens though don’t really like a ton but I’m playing pavon he he’s just been so consistent this year I definitely have
To go there with him 7,900 Chris Kirk in Florida is basically a must 7,800 Cory Connor is going to be probably the most popular in this range and I keep going back and forth on him I don’t know if I want to get there keep making cases
For him and against him so maybe one of you guys can can talk me in or out of it and then I do like Jake knap as well 7,600 we talked about it you know with the ball striking he has it’s possible he he could be a stud you
Know with the distance he has off the te and the ball striking I’m fine going there 7,600 and then Keegan Bradley is also going to be pretty popular but for good reason I mean that the guy has just absolutely destroyed this this course 10th 11th and 10th the last three years
He’s played 12 times only missed the cut once back in his first appearance all the way back in 2011 so you know th this is a course where he is extremely comfortable I’ve actually made an outright on him as well 66 to one with six places so
That’s really what I’m looking at in the 7K range but Mike what about you what do you like here I think for the most part the 7K range is you’re dabbling all over uh with the one exception being the Napper I I am fully on board with nap I I think
He’s gonna a stud um there’s a lot of parts of his game that I just really really like um I think he’s 10 grand before the end of the summer uh so big old flag there um but yeah you said Kirk I like you know Bradley I like
And now you know it sounds like these are all going to be chalk know even you want you know I I’ll throw a Benny on in there like I think Lowry is playable you know Conor’s playable Haron playable so you know throw throw throw one out there
Based on what kind of salary you have in this range yeah and and just to piggy back on nap I mean last four tournaments fourth place one 28th third he’s gained Strokes on approach in all four of those tournaments gained an average of 4.55 Strokes in those tournaments so I mean
Striking the ball very well has three top four finishes over the last 24 rounds seventh in bogey avoidance seventh in sand saves 24th in Strokes gained approach 22 from 200 plus yards and 28th off the T so everything you want here and and recent form I I I like
Nap quite a bit but Dave what are you thinking in this range I like nap also but just you know he is a 28 29 year old rookie so we might want to slow down at 10K by the end of the summer Just For What It’s Worth um Cory Connor’s good with his
Long irons uh been really good to Green lately I am gonna play him there I don’t know how much of a ringing endorsement that was but you know he does hit Fairways also um benan I’ve been playing a lot of he is a little wild off the tea
As well so that does you know something you got to be in consideration of this week Shane Lowry uh might just be on full-blown tilt after another Honda how did he play here last year because or did he did he mail down at Honda last year
Too yeah that was that was Honda but has not played well here 67th last year miscut in 2021 miscut in 2019 so not great for Shane and he didn’t play here after the kicking the balls of a Honda last year either so um I don’t know if
That’s something that you know I want want to get myself into there and he just doesn’t seem to win uh a couple names that you guys didn’t mention Tom hogi uh approach game has been really really good lately um field might be a little strong for him in general but at
7100 you could do a little bit you know he could do worse Eric Cole coming off of super chalk Miss cut um I think he’s a good bounceback candidate and your reing Champion Kirk kyama is here at 7,300 um does everything right when he’s on so I think those are the names I’ll
Play some kittama uh and Adam Scott’s been playing really good too um he’s here on an exemption I got to look into his course history a little bit but I think he’s just been playing really solid golf this year so far yeah hasn’t really played that well
Here recently but you know it’s it’s one of those arguments of of recent form compared to course history so you can definitely make a case for him I’m not sure I’m going to get there yet but in this range I mean with how well he’s been playing it’s definitely a good
Price for him but I like the kitty call definitely goingon to play hogi I as you said Big Boy event I’m a little worried about it but at 7100 you don’t really need a ton from him and especially with how well he’s been hitting them irons and especially the long irons he’s first
In the in the field over the last 24 rounds over 200 yards so I’m I’m fine with hogi and then Luke list I I I’ll sprinkle him in a little bit didn’t really play well last week but I do think that you know when almost a third of your shots are
Approach shots are coming from over 200 yards he’s one of the better guys in the field when it comes to that so uh I’m fine going with luk list but if we drop down into the sixes emilano Grio is a guy that I think you can make a case for you
Know but I don’t know it it’s just so hit or miss with him I I don’t know if I’m going to get there Justin Rose I mean it’s it’s like from round to round you don’t know what you’re going to get from him at this point but if if
You’re looking to dive down here I think you can make a case for him and then both of these guys are probably going to be ridiculous chalk at only $6,600 I don’t know what DraftKings is doing here Eric Van Ruan is just I mean he’s been
On a tear lately and I I don’t see how he doesn’t push 20% ownership or probably between 15 and 20 so I I get that he hasn’t played well here same with Min W Le neither one of them have played well but with how well they’ve been playing when you have them
Down here at 6600 I think a lot of people are going to click on them but Mike what do you thinking down here in the sixes I’m going to click on them those were literally the only two names I had to talk like I’m gonna try to avoid the
Sixes as much as I can with the exception of Van Ruan and Le like minwoo the win yeah I mean I’m gonna play a lot of Rory and Scotty so I’m sure I’m gonna have to have some of these sixk guys but just keep in mind if you are building
With Scotty a Rory that most people are probably going to have one if not both of these guys in those lineups so that can get very chalky very chalky very quickly was rather difficult to say for some reason Dave what do you think of down
Here I just I mean I hate I when did did they come out with pricing it wouldn’t even M I don’t understand the 6600 price tag on either of these guys um I’m really torn between full you know free square and full fade um not exactly sure what to do this
Early in the week with that one but I think that’s one of the bigger decision points on the week Austin e WR uh just 300 more it’s a really big win that he came off of I’m not sure if I want to lean into him com on a Monday also that
Worries me a little bit I’d like him to just do you know I know there’s an elevated prize pool but he should just do the right thing and withdraw from the tournament so nonetheless have to play him um another name here Adam senson uh completely imploded in round
Two but you know everyone liked him coming into last week and sep staka I like just on tough courses in general but man um the value that you have in Minn Lee EVR I mean they’re just much better than their play you know the players around them uh Denny McCarthy decent pivot at
6700 but you really got to talk yourself into reasons not to play these guys and the only reason not to play these guys is strictly ownership so I don’t know which way that’s going to run in uh my decision making yeah I it it’s going to be tough
I mean I’m definitely going to play some of them it’s just probably going to pick and choose what lineups I throw them in as I said I I don’t think I want to pair them with as much as the salary savings is needed if you’re playing Scotty or
Rory I’m gonna try and go elsewhere but I like the spencon call 6400 I like the Flop leg on him you know I I played a ton of him last week he was one of my Cor guys and obviously that didn’t work out but I I do think that he can bounce
Back here great great player with the irons as we said with a lot of these guys over 200 yards he he’s top 10 there as well so I I do like that and then totally forgot skipped over CZ I I think at 7,000 he makes some sense also from a
Flop leg standpoint a lot of guys played him last week I was not one of them but you know obviously wasn’t the the greatest results but I I do think that he could play well here who is D FZ CZ cost me so much money last week [ __ ] CZ CZ ruined a
Bunch of my good five or six lineups but who the hell is David Ford David Ford let’s check webson and how did he make his way into this field David Ford yeah I have no idea well apparently he’s pretty good putting on Bermuda he the Stoneman uh the only tournament last
Year he played the RSM and missed the cut in November and then came 58th at the barbasol back in July so not much to go on here how is he in this field I have no idea Stoneman but play web Simpson instead if you’re going to do that
Because I’ve never heard of this guy probably shouldn’t do that either I mean c been playing well ofb Simpson listen most of these guys are going to make the cut this week you could do worse yeah but that’s the thing is if if a lot of these guys are making the cut
You’re going to need guys to do more than just make the cut because yeah and the very bottom of your DraftKings list are the only guys that are winning tournament so again why aren’t we playing David Ford so in other words Jam Sheamus power Lee Hodes McKenzie Hughes now C CT Pan’s
Actually been playing well I kind of like him more if the scoring is going to be a little easier but you can make a case for it with with how well he’s been playing but I I think we pry much we doing here we’re making a case for CT pan show is
Over I mean yeah we’re talking up Ford and CT pan and and possible web Simpson I’m pretty sure that we jumped the shark on this one but just to be fair ct pen third place 28th Place his last two tournaments so cool not too bad it’s good
Times but I think that’s pretty much all we got for this week just to recap the bets I have ludvig oberg at 25 to one and then also use the DK boost at 21 he’s available 18 to 20 on most books and then I have spe at 20 to one Keegan Bradley at
66 with six places and then I have the Matthew Fitzpatrick top 20 probably looking to add one more guy G to add some uh matchups and maybe another top 20 so definitely check back for that obviously you could check the helm sports.com go to the my bets tab I’ll
Have everything in there also everything will be in the newsletter but Dave what do you got so far outright wise see I have will zot tus at 42 and a half to one that’s with a 30% boost uh we have wam Clark 55 to one Matthew Fitzpatrick 35 to one and over
On Puerto Rico we have Bobby macket 55 to one and I’ve also got a couple dollars on a Bobby Mac Rory double because why not yeah I I might throw something in on Puerto Rico but I’ve been losing enough money betting one tournament a week so I
I don’t know if I’m gonna do that yet Mike any anything stick out to you I know you said you liked Hideki possibly Dey at 45 I like the Napper at uh I like Min W Le at 40 I think that one’s okay and then I like where did I say
Him I’ll think a stab at sige at 60 fair enough any any parting words Mike no we’re we’re golf good to see you boys absolutely Dave someone’s got to find out how David Ford made it into this field I want answers there you go if if anybody knows put that in the
Comment section as well because I’m I don’t care enough to even look it up but that’s going to do it for this week as always check out the helm sports.com have the course preview up over there the Hardcore Parkour was just submitted before we hopped on so check
That out uh sign up for the newsletter basically have all my content in there last minute thoughts on DraftKings have all my outrights so everything you need it will be in there check out the madlab mma.com the second I make a bet I go over there and make
Sure that you get the same number so check that out obviously MMA mad lab absolutely kills it each week huge card coming up this weekend so definitely want to check that out but that’s going to do it for this week as always thank you for listening and remember just have fun out there
