Eric Cohen is joined by Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald to break down all of the best bets and picks for The Arnold Palmer Invitational!
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Welcome to the early wedge presented by bmgm I am your host Eric Cohen AKA AC all right so last week I gave out some picks here on the show and they weren’t that great but if you did listen to my storyline and the live betting advice
That I gave you might have made some money kind of like I did and had Austin e wrote you played the trends the trends held up at PGA National how will they do at Bay Hill this weekend let’s find out let’s bring in the stars of the show
This week we have the host of of the early Edge and one of the greatest golf bets on the planet C NAD plus one of the smartest golf mines that I know and also on the planet one Patrick McDonald from CBS Sports all right counselor uh we’ll
Start with you because I want to get right into your storyline because I think it applies to everything that we’re gonna talk about uh before our picks tonight and that is what’s going on with these winners these triple digit guys Austin ecro doesn’t move the needle
For you listen I love Austin ekro and if if you watch the early wedge last year you know I had him a lot but I certainly didn’t have him last week in full disclosure I appreciate the compliment but I was bad last week uh I think you
Just referenced how you were bad uh my picks did not come through and and I think that kind of feeds into my storyline I’m not making excuses but uh will the real PGA Tour Superstars please stand up because we haven’t seen you and I don’t know if you know this but
There’s this competing tour it’s called live there’s a lot of stars on that when you look at the leaderboard on a Saturday or a Friday or a Sunday we see names that are very familiar I look at the leader board at some of these tournaments that we’re looking at on the
PGA tour and don’t get me wrong I still love betting these I still love playing DFS I still love doing all of that but these names are not super recognizable and I’m just waiting okay we’re at the API we’ve got it’s literally littered with superstars in fact it’s an
Invitational they basically left the guys that normally win these tournaments they left them on the side because they’re forcing us to like have a Patrick Klay or a Scotty sheff or Roy maroy or a ludig Oar either way I am waiting for some of these PGA stars to
Actually get an outright I’m waiting for some shorter odds to kind of put their stamp on the PGA tour and and and kind of scream out hey there’s Stars over here too so I this is probably the tournament where it happens again Invitational nature we got Scotty we got
Rory we’ve got all the PGA Tour stars but it’s starting to become a problem from an optic standpoint we need some of these guys to play really well not just one but multiple to be to be competing down the stretch on a Sunday early evening we we haven’t had that yet it’s
Probably coming this week but if it doesn’t I mean watch out because you know I I think we need the ratings I think we need the fervor of some of these Superstars being there at the end yeah well also you mentioned Sunday evening it doesn’t help that they
Started the tournament late Patrick just kind of respond your thoughts on what CA just said about the lack of stars winning on the PGA tour does that bother you I think it was probably anything that could go wrong for the PGA tour in the first two months did go wrong not only did
You know lesser known players win but like you said that they didn’t take into account the rain there on Sunday at the cognizant classic you have a Genesis Invitational where everyone’s hyped up and then Jordan Speed DQ Justin Thomas MC Tiger Woods WD and it’s really just I I think that tournament really
Encapsulates the PJ tour season to this point and uh yeah star winning and of course like beill would go a long way for them with that said now see you mentioned Liv and Liv is that you know they they have a lot of top golfers and
We’ll make some picks at the end of the show but the fact is their tournament in Saudi Arabia was on in the middle of the night I was waking up here in Arizona and looking at the results that have been over for three hours I mean it
Wasn’t something I could watch and I think that’s also a problem for that League I know what they’re trying to do but with that said I you know I’d rather at least I can watch what’s going on at at PGA National now Patrick I play with
A tailor made spider Putter and it has some good moments and some not so good moments for me Scotty Sheffer it looks like it’s going back to it this week what do you think well if he has some good moments and not so good moments that might be enough for Scotty Sheffer
To win this tournament since the beginning of the year he is first in total Strokes gained first in Strokes gain T to Green first off the T first on approach third around the green putting he is 66 in this field uh and when you look at those players who have played 10
Rounds at Bay Hill guess what Scott sheffler ranks first in Strokes gained as well and so I’m just happy he’s doing something different because whatever he was doing on the west coast was not working you combine a switch with the putter he doesn’t have a line on the
Ball anymore he’s trying to feel like an artist uh with the transition to Bermuda grass a much smoother surface and hopefully that can pay dividends for someone like Scotty who is amid one of the all-time great ball striking stretches in PGA tour history and the winds haven’t caught up so an average
Putting week could mean a win for Scotty sheffler yeah and I I would say the same with Rory mroy we’ll talk about that later in the show same thing Rory was amazing off the tea at PGA National Dreadful with the putter look like me trying to putt out there at least the
Way I have been with my spider putter lately all right my storyline see I’m actually gonna come to you for this one are the books being more conservative with outright lines because of the rash of upset and triple digit winners in that I saw some of the lines this week I
Know it’s a shorter field but like the lines were probably a little too short on some players than they should be with top end guys in the field do you agree or disagree I agree but I don’t know that it’s different this week than it
Has been for 2024 I don’t know what the holds are I’d probably have to I mean I could probably ask some people if the holds are more significant on these outrights than they normally are but I I’m noticing a lot of these numbers are just way shorter than than I would have
Thought I will say this these numbers get bet down immediately when they come out like let’s say if they come out like on a Monday morning um which is usually when we see them a lot of the guys that we would like on this show or that you
Joe or Mark or DBU or Moshi or Japan would like in the chat because you’re like oh my God this guy’s been hot he shouldn’t be 50 to1 well you’re right and that number gets bet down I’m I’m making this number up to 35 to1 real
Real quick we see it every week now so I mean it is it is one of those things if you want to catch a good number on like a middle tier player or I shouldn’t say a middle tier I should say a second or third tier player you’re going to have
To act pretty fast like on a Monday as far as like the Scotty shefflers and Rory’s those numbers generally don’t change much uh neither really do like the the klays and and the havins U you might see a guy like Xander move down a little bit as some of these other guys
Get popular but yeah the holds are pretty significant it’s hard to find Value sometimes which is why you know sometimes we we simply don’t force it you know if you are looking for some value right off the bat and you’re a sports line member the First Column
About golf that’s on the site every Monday is won by our friend Patrick McDonald here who gives out his uh his initial leans I think is that’s what it is right off the bat so you can find that and those some of those numbers you have some mid tier guys and those prices
I believe have changed this week what are your thoughts on the odds that we’re seeing at the top of the board or just in general midb are they Fair odds or they a little too short for your for you uh I I agree pretty much with everything
That CS said there seems to be a convergence almost like this week I’ve seen like 40 to ones out there for guys like will zures for guys like Justin Thomas and then you have someone like a Harris English who is not playing he’s playing well don’t get me wrong but he’s
Not playing as well as Justin Thomas right now and he was 75 to one at open and down as low as 45 to one at some shops so it’s just seems like it’s really getting squeezed out uh so far and it is uh it has been pretty
Difficult to find Value well I can tell you one area where you’re not going to get squeezed and that’s in the DFS Market because those prices don’t change let’s see what you guys have planned for this week and see I guess we’ll start with you you’re fading a player that uh
I know will come up later in the show why do you not like Xander Schley this week at this price well I mean you know I’m looking at his ownership percentage and you know this can change it’s still kind of early on a Tuesday but when I
See a Xander and again your ownership numbers may look different than mine at the end on on a Wednesday night or early Thursday morning but when I see ownership for a Xander chofay that is more than let’s say l goar i I’m out on that you know I saw Xander ownership at
Around 17 18% and and honestly listen I know Xander is really good but I’m not sure I see the upside with Xander relative to well let’s name every single golfer around him right Scotty Sheffer Rory maroy Patrick kley Victor hland honestly I’m not even sure I see the
Upside relative to like a Colin morawa so unless I’m getting asander schof in this Talent Laden field unless I’m getting Xander at ownership that is I don’t know six or seven points less than most of the guys I just mentioned I’m just going to be out on him so at 9800
I’ll find a different place to spend my money and one of those places is going to be ludvig Oar at 9500 I’m noticing that his ownership percentage and I think this is because of how people are building their lineups people want to include either Scotty or Rory you can
Build with both Scotty and Rory and there’s a b there’s a bunch of 6K guys that are going to be popular for people so it’s really easy to have builds and and I think because people want to go up top to one of those two guys guys like
Ludvig are getting kind of squeezed out a little bit that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have any ownership but when I look at o a i want to say abber so bad but when I look at oar’s upside I just think it’s tremendous I mean I I think
It’s comparable to to Victor havland I don’t want to put him in the category of of Scotty aor but I love the upside and I love that the ownership doesn’t appear to be approaching 20% so if that’s the case in DFS I’m happy to play him the
Other two guys we mentioned one of them I’ll go down to 7,300 Harris English I mean the history here for Harris English is pretty great and and when you look at what he is doing lately in the recent history by the way over his last three
Years 2 26th and Ninth so that’s really good history and you might say okay well that that’s a bit of an anomaly but that’s like three tournaments where he’s really played well and he’s doing everything from a recent history standpoint he’s doing everything well except for the approach game I would
Almost call him like a poor man’s Min Le at least in terms of how The Strokes gain metrics are shaping out obviously Min Le is a lot longer than Harris English so it’s different but if you look at what Harris English is actually doing off the te partly because he’s
Pretty accurate and you look at what he’s doing doing with the short game honestly I I think he’s a bargain at 7,300 I think his ownership should probably be a tick higher we notice it in the market Patrick just said the market is appreciating him from a you
Know 75-1 outright to a 50 or 45 to1 I think Harris English is a pretty smart play and then Hideki matama we know he just won right like Hideki has the upside the thing I like in particular about Hideki is first of all his short
Game is great he just won like I said the ball striking can be inconsistent but to the extent it is consistent or to the extent we’re looking for that Spike tournament from Hideki matam it’s usually going to be on these long difficult courses so again at 8,400 he’s
Not getting absolutely ignored but he’s certainly not a popular play all three of these guys I think can jump inside the top 20 potentially on a perfect week inside the top 10 or 15 so that’s why I’m playing them you know I really want
To learn from my own golf game how to do that pause at the top of my swing like keki does obviously worked for him at at the Genesis and has worked for him well in his career I have a feeling it would not work well for me and producer Jake
And Patrick who were the scratch golfers probably not recommend that all right Patrick you love to give out the bargain you know bargain uh chips let’s say when it comes to DFS but then I see you fading a 6600 especially a guy that just finished in the what top five top 10
Over a PGA National what are we doing here with mini yeah he finished runner up actually e and I mean that’s the reason he is in this field got in through the A on swing five uh you know someone who wasn’t in any of these Signature Events to begin the year but
He was a last minute ad in terms of DFS for DraftKings pricing and minmi is obviously not a 6600 caliber player and because of that I mean his ownership’s going to be probably hovering around 20% and no offense to him but I think at that price 20% I’m okay fading him I
Think the approach numbers were somewhat skewed you look at his par five scoring from last week he had a lot of long approach shots close and that certainly helped the cause so I’m okay uh you know sitting off minwoo this week even though I love him and instead I’ll go Adam
Hadwin 6,800 coming off a really nice finish there at the Genesis outside of the Phoenix Open where of course I had money on him uh he’s actually had a great year iron play looks great really accurate out the te allar around a great player uh the length of the course could
Be a problem for him but he’s gotten around here effectively before he has a top 10 in his career Adam Scott 7500 he is playing like a top 20 player in the world at the moment ball striking is unbelievable pretty much the entire game is unbelievable and he’s the type of guy
Who wins at long difficult golf courses a great long iron player he’s going to be able to get his way around this golf course so I like the Australian at that price then Chris Kirk he’s been somewhat me since that win at the Sentry to kick
Off the year but got back on in Florida got back on Bermuda hit the ball well top 20 Tia Green Top 10 off the tea as well uh last week at the cognizant and he’s been great at this golf course throughout his career four top 15s in
His last five including a T5 in 22 so give me Kirk at 7800 I think there’s some sneaky ones on here see you go ahead let me point something out because the minm Lee fade uh and honestly Eric Van royan is starting to creep up to that minmo LE range in terms of
Ownership we’ll see how it pans out I mean I think Patrick’s right it’ll end up probably being around 20% for minm Lee because it’s obviously like a pricing error Eric Van royan will probably be in that 15 to 16% range so I don’t know if anybody plays like DFS or
I should say PGA cash I mean I think those would be fine cash plays but there is a game we’re playing in DFS and by the way I’m not I’m not I I know like I heard what Patrick said and I agree with him this doesn’t mean you absolutely
Can’t play mm Le right if he’s popular in the 6K range but it does mean that if you are going to play him you know you got to make sure the construction of your lineup is a little different than everybody else that’s playing him and that you’re playing a couple of
Different guys because you cannot forget that you’re playing a game here and if you have a lot of the players that everybody else has when that player goes off you’re not passing many people right because all those other players that are playing that same player are just going
Right along with the ride with you so it’s something to keep in mind when it comes to mini doesn’t mean you can’t play him or EVR but I will point out in that 6K range because they’re so popular and because so many builds are starting with Scotty and or Rory and going down
To Min Le and maybe EVR because so many builds start like that it leaves everybody else in the 6K range in in the 5% or lower range so if you spike an Adam hadwin For example or really anybody else that’s not named those two guys then you’re in really good shape to
Pass a lot of people the last thing I want to say Japan pointed it out he says that minm LE song goes hard AF blast it on the I blasted it on the way to top call for anybody that doesn’t know what Japan is talking about I have this song
And a piece of the video pinned to my profile I absolutely love creativity it’s what I’m all about I do Twitter spaces I do cnad Sports on this creativity stuff and just kind of like going after your goals this guy thorb again his the the song is pinned to my
Profile he did this MMI song that is so good everybody go check it out guys that are creative or girls that are creative like that deserve recognition and this minmo Lee clip and uh the full song which you can find on Spotify or iHeart Radio wherever you listen to your music
It’s really really good it’ll get you hyped up 100 per. I heard you know both of your logic makes sense but with somebody having a cool song which I haven’t seen yet I can’t fade him especially at that price now listen I always believe in when you put together
A DFS lineup you got a differentiate somewhere you you can’t spend you don’t you don’t have to worry about spending you know to the last dollar so you have zero dollars remaining if you have to if you have to make a you know put it in
Adam Scott instead of a guy in the 8000s where you know a guy with upside as Patrick pointed out maybe that’s the way that you differentiate if you were to add a mini to your lineup but I guess your explanation makes sense based on uh you know I thought you were just GNA
Strictly just fade mini coming off a good outing but it makes sense all right let’s move on to frls Dustin wanted to know Patrick Klay will he be on your list CA uh Patrick hlay coming off you know at the at Riviera you know was we
Thought he was going to go wire to wire I was hoping to get the First Cash here on the show and then of course Patrick does that in Mexico uh the following week with with Jake nap so all right what do you have for us frl uh right off
The bat yeah I’ll say this about Patrick Klay I’m really struggling in in DFS and and you know I considered him as an outright as to whether to play Patrick kley I’m going to check on his ownership in a second I think it’s just in that
Sort of like that Ander range in that 15 to 20% uh which isn’t bad isn’t good necessarily but uh I’m not going to have Patrick kentley on this card but if you were if you were going to tell me that Patrick kentley’s gonna have I think
He’s a really good course fit and I think Patrick kentley when he turns it on uh can win any tournament but I’ll say the same about Victor hin I I think Victor hin is a great course fit he has very good history here his recent form
Hasn’t been very good uh which I I think might it might strike people as odd that like well why are you playing Victor hin of all things at first round leader he going to turn it around in round one one actually the answer is probably yes because these Superstars tend to do that
I really don’t care about recent form that much unless it’s something really striking I don’t care about recent form too much unless it’s like a middle tier or lower tier golfer these Superstars can turn it on at any given moment for the record last time out Victor hin I
Believe was at the Genesis um he played pretty well the ball striking was there the short game kind of lagged behind a little bit but the ball striking was there so I do think his ball striking is back and for a first round leader that’s what we’re looking for right we’re not
Really focused on around the green game as much that can save your round potentially but we’re looking for great driving good total driving which Victor hin can do great approach stick the landing on these these fast greens and and Putt get find a hot Putter and so
Victor hin can do that I’ll say the same for Will zotor Will zator and Victor hin especially on Long difficult courses uh play really well will zot horse’s recent form is very good Hideki a guy who can pop we’ve kind of been over that um he
Can pop in first rounds as well of course uh and Keegan Bradley’s another guy that raided out pretty well I honestly wasn’t going to include him on the card but when I saw 50 to1 I thought it was worth it I don’t think he can win this tournament I think his recent form
Is a little checkered but one thing we know about Keegan Bradley is he’s very comfortable at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill his track record here over his last three is very very good so if he’s going to regain his form it’s very likely going to be here
So back in the day when Patrick was working somewhere before uh CBS Sports he used to put outl columns and actually cashed one with him based on one of his picks so Patrick of the that CA gave uh which was I believe zalot torus hin Matsuyama and Bradley which is the one
That you would put your money on uh in this particular for this particular tournament ah Keegan Bradley is a first round fiend especially in the State of Florida too I I feel like uh he’s always home in there at the vbar championship in particular I feel like he’s been the
First round leader at least three times in his career uh but I believe I bet Bradley first round leader in this tournament last year came close uh so I’d go Keegan at 50 almost an auto it seems like yeah two of the last three years uh at API he’s had really good
First rounds not enough to take it down but we’re talking like one or two strokes back each time the most profitable element of the show thus far I believe has been matchup so and also Patrick and I have had this little budding Showdown rivalry will it continue again this week we’ll find out
After we hear from one of our sponsors out there there are two colossal beings both forces of nature in their own regard but in here as soon as the shoot bursts open The Duality of Man and Beast begins to fade this is the PBR on CBS Sports
Network all right now it’s time for what everybody has been waiting for another potential short we’ll see I want to hear his logic first all right Patrick you have three matchups this week on the show let’s start with Chris KK over Tom hogi uh you talked about Kirk a little
Bit ear earlier how you liked him you know showed some some nice things T the green why do you like him over Tom hogi who also is a great iron player yeah Tom hogi is playing great golf at the moment has played great at Pebble Beach has played at the Genesis Invitational the
Thing about those two golf courses which is different from Bay Hill is inaccuracy and just poor total driving overall does not really hinder your chances too much and despite Tom hogi being a great iron player I mean his approach numbers are popping he hasn’t figured out Bay Hill
For one very particular reason and that’s because he’s short off the te and he’s inaccurate off the te and when you’re that at Bay Hill you can’t let the irons eat no matter what you’re G to be missing a lot of greens and he doesn’t have the short game to keep up
So give me Chris Kirk who I know can get around this plays and is hitting the ball well at minus 120 I like Tommy Fleetwood minus 110 over Max hom hom has a great track record here in four starts fleetwood’s done pretty well himself I just think fleetwood’s the better gol ER
At the moment hom seems to be going through something with his swing uh didn’t have it on the west coach which coast which is very uncharacteristic for maxom so I know he’s taking some time off but I’ll take the Englishman at minus 110 and then Xander plus 105 over
Victor hofland hoflin is kind of in the same boat of Max in my opinion I mean he dumped his short game coach the numbers back it up they’re not as good as last year uh and he’s working on his full swing he he skipped the Farmers
Insurance open to work on it in Florida and and while the numbers were better at the Genesis Invitational you look at some of the proximities from over 175 they’re not Victor hin caliber at the moment and so because of that even though he has a great course history
I’ll take Xander who’s got that all-around game and and the format plus 105 now Xander uh was very close to my no bet list on the outrights but I do love betting Xander he has what four top fives uh in his first five starts this year Victor hin in the last two years
Here as you mentioned a T2 in 2022 a T10 last year has been excellent with his ball striking has gained over nine Strokes each of the last two years here so Patrick I’ll take hoblin over shley are you in or are you out I was gonna challenge him to the same thing that’s
Funny but no no you can just do it with you can do I me you do you want a double do you want a double Showdown you know first I’ll talk to Joe in the chat uh these are at DraftKings I believe Kirk’s at MGM uh as for you two
The children in the room Jake go ahead and play that music wow here we Go you know one thing I have learned is to not go with the counselor because I was it was a very painful strategy when I did that last year so I like having you on my side seea Patrick you’re good with full showdowns for both of these
Yeah buddy I’m the one who’s cashed Jake nap on this show I’ve got a you got plenty money yeah you got plenty of money to spend uh seea let’s hear what you got you’re going Ben on you’re going you’re fading Tom Kim who kind of let me
Down on some uh some some finishing positions that I bet during the tournament miserable during the last round so you like Ben on instead yeah I’m gonna go with Ben on and by the way uh this Ben on one over Tom Kim is at Caesars the next one I’m going to talk
About the Cameron young one is at DraftKings uh listen benan has been playing really well you know I do worry about his accuracy a little bit off the tea but his off the te numbers have been spectacular that’s really going to serve him well here and really everything else
Grades out pretty well for for beton I mean obviously he does have some putter issues but I don’t want to say the API is is is a tournament for team no putt necessarily but you can certainly get away with you know kind of being a
Weaker putter uh out here at H Bay Hill so benan over Tom Kim listen this is more of a fade of Tom Kim than it is a play on benon but I do like benon I do like his form I do think he has upside there’s a reason in DFS circles his
Ownership is starting to creep up a a little bit and Tom Kim just hasn’t really had the form he’s certainly more accurate but he’s not going to be better than Ben on off the te and he just hasn’t shown me any of the old Tom Kim
That we saw about a year 12 14 months ago so I’m happy to take this at minus 115 again this one over at Caesars this other one again DraftKings Cameron young minus 120 over Jason day uh Jason day’s confusing because there are some things I looked at that looked really good for
Jason day other things I looked at that weren’t very good but either way Cameron young just first of all his play lately has been very good okay and he’s a great course fit he should really take advantage of of this course particularly off the tea and everything if everything
Else falls into place sometimes the short game the around the green game can be a little checkered for Cameron young but as long as it’s anywhere close to decent he can even be a negative there as long as he’s good everywhere else uh he’s gonna beat Jason day so give me
Cameron young minus 120 over Jay day all right I am sticking with a minus 120 myself I’m going Keegan Bradley over Adam Scott who Patrick talked up earlier in the show now the thing about Scott that I don’t like is that he’s lost Strokes on approach in his last four
Here and more than 10 combined Strokes on approach in those four tournaments which is not a good sign he has no top 10 in his last six at Bay Hill that’s a little scary meanwhile Keegan Bradley in his last three here T10 t11 T10 sounds good to me and has gained multiple
Strokes with his ball striking in his last eight tournaments at Bay Hill likes this place minus 120 now listen Patrick’s Logic on Adam Scott makes a ton of sense he’s playing great but Keegan Bradley I love the course fit here so I’m going to roll with that at –
120 and then I’m just fading Colin morawa here and I do like Jordan spe this week and I’m going to take him at plus 105 morawa has lost more than 10 Strokes putting in three trips here Dreadful I mean that’s something that I would do well I’d lose more than that
But let’s that’s for another time anyways spe in two trips to Bay Hill T4 and T4 can’t get much better than that uh and he has gained Strokes in nearly all categories each time lost a fraction of his stroke off the te the first time
Around which is a key stat here at Bay Hill but he was he was better last year I expect him to put on a very good performance this weekend so I am fading Colin morawa here now on to finishing positions Patrick you don’t have any but
Don’t worry I will come to you uh with a couple of uh questions based on what you see on the screen here but seea you and I are kind of in alignment on will zat torus you got him at a little bit better price than I did why do you like Z this
Week in the top 20 yeah and this one this plus 110 at the T20 it’s going to be at DraftKings what’s really interesting is when I look at Z in matchups and and really in terms of where he opened I mean the market wasn’t really respecting will zotor and I don’t
Know that I can figure out why to be honest with you he rates out really really well and we’ve seen like obviously I was I was very nervous about the back issue I don’t know three four or five weeks ago I really wasn’t playing him when he was playing well but
The back issue was a thing of the past and he just rates out really well just like much like Victor hin the ball striking is there the weighted T green is there uh ball striking on long and difficult courses is there I I just think again over the last three tourn if
You look at his ball striking and His short game I mean this guy is very clearly ascending and by the way if you don’t want to just lock in Strokes gain metrics that’s cool well what about his finishing positions 13th and second over his last two tournaments like I I’m not
Exactly sure what the hang-up his on will zator so I can sneak him inside the top 20 at plus money I’m going to do that every time and listen full disclosure I’ve been very bad in this market like over the last two to three weeks the finishing positions I’ve
Straight up been bad which is why I kind of like reeled it in a little bit and only gave out one finishing position play because this one I’m I’m well take this for what it’s worth very confident and I I didn’t want to litter the card with three four plays there’s three
People on this show you know it’s kind of one of those things where you can kind of take pieces of of everybody’s card or one person’s card or one and a half people’s card so I wanted to make sure I stayed disciplined here since I haven’t been great in this market give
Me will zator T20 at plus money yeah well I littered here last week see and it did not go well uh this was this was where I struggled so I’m going right back at it you can’t you can’t stay down mention yeah exactly shoot or shoot uh
Bill zalot torus you talked about it top 10 I’ll take him at plus 240 I like them there top 20 at even money I got these all at MGM and MGM don’t forget is the only Sportsbook that pays out ties in full uh just with their regular odds I
Know bet 365 also has a uh as a h bet you know pays out ties in one of their sections I also like Matt Fitzpatrick here uh plus 240 top 10 plus plus uh 100 so even money top 20 four top 10 and a T14 in his last five here the poor
Recent form I get it but I’m playing the course history over that I know that’s risky and then I’m playing a guy and this is normally not like me usually you guys know me it’s all about course form course history Jake naap is there anyone who’s better who’s been a better ball
Striker over the last month on the PGA tour Than Jake naap so a top 20 at plus 140 it makes sense he has three top four finishes in his last four events between the Farmers Insurance open Mexico open and the C classic he gained more than 25
Strokes ball striking he does even a fraction of that this week and the putter is halfway decent yeah he can sneak in the top 20 and we’re getting some nice juice at plus 140 now if you were watching the show last week oh go ahead see it go ahead I was just gonna
Say Michael Potter says I’m seeing zotor at plus 280 top 20 on DK am I missing something yes you’re looking at top you’re looking top 10 not top top 10 also you have to remember so the top the plus 240 that I got at MGM pays out ties
The plus 280 is subject to Dead Heat rules on DK good call and so remember that in some of the sports book all right Patrick what what C and I gave out zalot Taurus Fitzpatrick and Jake knap which is your favorite of those if you had to pick
One oh put me on the spot I uh you can say none of them if you don’t want them I’m a I am a fan of Matt Fitzpatrick this week I am you will see later I I’m a fan of Matt Fitzpatrick So based on my selections he should have no issues uh
Finish inside the top 10 and 20 as I mentioned the one sports book where you can bet all of these these these finishing positions uh props and get paid on full on ties is a b MGM if you aren’t an a bmgm member it’s time to get
Going here as new bmgm customers can sign up today and get $150 in bonus bets just place your first wager of at least $5 and you’ll receive $150 instantly in bonus bets regardless of your Wagers outcome with bonus code edge 150 that’s Edge 150 last week Patrick and I had kind of a
Showdown with my auto Fades list has anyone been added to that list we’ll talk about that with outrights coming up here after we hear from one of our sponsors the blackout Mystery you just never know in the tournament who is going to shine stream March Madness live on any device anywhere and be ready for anything we have a new addition this week to the I can’t bet them up top and Patrick you get this player you get
Shane Lowry who has won uh zero PGA Tour events that are not a WGC in the United States he’s won one and it was a WGC event the WGC Bridgestone in 2015 so right now these are guys and you for the next three tournaments if one of these
Guys wins I owe you a hundred bucks and if not vice versa Tommy Fleetwood Sam Burns sahala cam young Scotty Sheffer since he’s under plus 10,000 this week Patrick hlay Tony fow and Shane Lowry how are you feeling about your chances of winning our Showdown fantastic are you kidding me
You give me Scotty sheffler who usually could have won this golf tournament last year you give him you give me him at the Players Championship then you we go to the V bar where someone like oh I don’t know Sam Burns and Tommy Fleetwood have played great and then you know just for
Fun we have Patrick HL one of the best allaround players in the world we have Tony Fe now Shane Lowry cam young who might even win this week too so I’d be surprised if it extends past this week with that list I’m feeling great about this list and we will keep adding every
Week and when I do add you’ll get those players for the remaining the remainder of the floor to swing now on your card this week you have a couple you have all three of these guys that we’ve talked about earlier in the show uh so start
With Cam young why are you so bullish on cam young this week because it looks like cam young actually learned how to putt and that has been a a big problem for cam young throughout his career career definitely during uh his sophomore campaign so I like cam young a
Lot at 28 to1 he’s a great course fit a great driver at the golf ball he does have the Wayward Miss every now again but he’s he’s proven capable of getting it around beay hill with a couple nice finishes and two appearances so the rapper Young Cam I know he’s very
Difficult to bet on given people love to bet on him and young Cam does not love to win but I think anything north of 28 uh you can go with and then Matt Fitzpatrick like I said 33 to one fantastic history as well I believe it’s what four five straight top 15 finishes
Something in that neighborhood finish runner up to Molinari in 19 I believe and uh gain throughout the bag there at the cognizant classic has kind of been me this year to tell you the truth I got burned by him at the Genesis Invitational uh but I like him on
Bermuda and if the driver turns around it needs to get much better for Fitzpatrick but if it does this week then the rest of his game is there and then Adam Scott like I said 50 to1 anything north of that I’m cool with uh just hitting the ball super well I’m not
Too concerned about uh his recent starts here just because I think he’s a completely different player right now counselor I gotta admit and I don’t usually say this I absolutely love your card this week uh I these were guy you know havin and obber were ex were like
Four and five on my list we want cut it down to three for this uh particular you know part of the show but I absolutely love your card not that I don’t like Patrick’s card but we I need cam young to lose because you know we have a bet
On that but C why do you like Victor havin and ludvig this week what I heard is that you don’t like Patrick’s card uh Victor I don’t mind it I don’t hate it listen I’ll be I’ll be quick here and for the record uh Patrick like you I
Cashed in on Jake naap too thanks to you not a play I gave out I tailed you because you’ve been you’ve been hotter than me particularly in the outright market so let me give you a credit listen I don’t want to go over havin Oar and zator too much because I have been
Talking about them quite a bit but I’ll just remind everybody that Victor havind again Superstar just because the form has been just a little checkered again ball striking last time out was actually quite good hoblin can turn it on at any any moment we saw that last year we’ve
Really seen that throughout his career he’s been 10th and second here over his last two years so listen at plus 1600 we’re not getting a steal necessarily but this is a very fair number maybe a slightly depressed number because of the recent form so I’ll take Vic uh Oar I’m
Just I’m wait I I want the short game and the ball striking to pair together and if it does it’s he’s going to win there are so many tournaments where the ball striking is just kind of whatever when we’re looking at The Strokes game metrics and then there are others where
He really really pops and then he pairs that with the putter or with the short game and he can win a tournament even a tournament that starts with Scotty shefflin Roy mroy will zator at at 33 to1 or 30 to1 I’ve seen it as low as 28
To1 I still think I would take it there but now we’re starting to get too short but again zator the way he’s been playing over the last couple of tournaments he has really been ascending and when I see like where the finishing positions were and I pair that with what
The ball striking is is looking like uh and how he plays on on courses that have talented fields and long and difficult courses uh that’s a good number on will you can call me a chalk chaser for Rory maroy at plus 900 he’s the second chalk
But listen it’s a guy that’s gained 18 is strokes and 18 straight stroke play Events off the te it’s phenomenal and it plays obviously as Patrick talked about earlier in the show how important it is at Bay Hill he has six top 10 in his last seven here including a win in 2018
And a T2 last year in the surprising KT Kama Victory the putter cooperates he wins and you can say the same about Scotty and Patrick we were talking about that you know off air that could say if Scotty earlier in the show as well you know if Scotty putts well enough he
Could win I’m saying the same about Rory at plus 900 Jordan Speed here plus 2200 two top 10 in four tournaments this year including that weird DQ at Riviera T4 both times here he doesn’t spray the driver the short game is good enough to win for the first time since the RBC
Heritage in 2022 likes these Coastal courses it seems will zures as CA just talked about it’s the elite ball striking I I it’s real uh and the Putter’s a lot better he does that Adam Scott long putter thing which maybe I need to try if my tailor made spider
Doesn’t work much longer uh I’m gonna try that long putter thing I still don’t know how that would work but regardless worked for will zorres because he’s in the uh he’s in the green when it comes to Strokes gain putting and he was a T10 here in 2021 even without great putting
Numbers so I’m going to roll with zures as well with CA at that big price now there’s another tournament going on this week uh Patrick you and I are staying away from it uh my my boy Rasmus hoard is the favorite he let me down last week
So I can’t bet him at 16 to1 but seea you have a couple of picks for the Puerto Rico open good for you what what are you throwing out here yeah I’ll say this I took Ben Silverman at 50 to1 it’s now down to 35 to1 he’s not necessarily
The best course fit but I just wanted to point that out out that he was on my card and then it went down 15 points and I I just didn’t think it was worth it if you can find Ben Silverman in that 50 range I think it’s good Sam Stevens is
Kind of like I don’t want to say it’s a throwaway I don’t believe in that one as much as I believe in Robert McIntyre so if you’re only going to pick one Bobby Mack is the play because Sam Stevens while I do think he’s good course fit
And he can be really good off the te the form really hasn’t been there this is a much lesser field we’ll see what happens I think 45 to1 is at least a decent number to speculate on but I think my favorite play and I think this was like
40 45 to one uh one or or two days ago if you can catch a 35 or something that’s great Bobby Mack off the te that that’s going to be really important here is really good and if we saw what he did last time out not at this tournament his
Last tournament uh which was last week uh Bobby Mack was gaining kind of everywhere so I mean if he’s got his other parts of his game like in play here and he’s going to be smashing it off the te and getting it out there long which is going to be important here then
I think he is very live to win so I really like Bobby Mack at 30 to1 all right very good picks there uh I I don’t have anything for you Patrick do you have anything about the Puerto Rico open that you can give us any wisdom about uh
Someone asked for a oneandone selection for it I think uh Ben Griffin could be a fun play or even I mean Daniel Burger has been hitting the ball great since his return uh the short game’s been horrible but uh I mean we’ve seen someone like Victor hofland win here so
Maybe the short game doesn’t matter too much that is fair all right now it is time back we’re going to go back to beay Hill we’re going to go back to the Arnold Palmer Invitational for our long shots category and Patrick will stick with you you talked about Chris Kirk
Earlier in the show and you like him at a big number plus 6600 why do you like Kirk at that number yeah I mean we’ve seen him win a signature event already uh this number has been dancing around I’ve seen as low as 50 I saw 75 today as
Well if you shop at a place that makes books uh and so I think Chris Kirk at 66 is probably around the right price and the ball striking came back last week we know what he can do around this golf course and we know what can do in a
Field of this caliber so why not seea you like Harris English plus 5500 you talked about him earlier in the show give us why that’s good value for him to win in a field of this caliber yeah for one he’s been really really good here the finishing positions have been great
And for the record his recent form has been good I tweeted something out a couple weeks ago I was like hey everybody Harris English I think it was 200 to1 is 200 to1 at the Masters like pretty much everywhere maybe it was 150 I can’t remember I actually bet it
Myself but the point is this is a guy that’s getting unrecognized I understand why he’s not hyper talented relative to the top of this board but with the recent history and the course history and knowing that he’s doing it in The Strokes game metrics Department outside of approach and you know hopefully maybe
He can get hot with approach I I there’s a reason the market is opened at a certain number with Harris English and it’s being bet down to 55 50 sometimes I think in some places maybe even 45 to one Harris English if if those two guys at the top
Or the the group at the top just has a middling tournament Harris English could at least be in the conversation all right that’s fair enough uh all right we’ve got I got a couple I got three parlays for you can’t resist in this section top finish parlay Scotty Sheffer
Top five Victor hlin top 10 Xander top 20 I think Xander’s gonna do okay I just think Victor Holland’s gonna do better which is why C and I made that Showdown uh against Patrick earlier in the show but I think I think Xander top 20 and I
Had him in the top 10 of my fantasy rankings in the article on sportsline.com so I’m going to roll with that plus 1,200 some good value there top 20 parlay havin Jordan spe ludig AB obber I got to get it right at plus 450 and at top 20 parlay this one little
Juicy odds so I had to go with it will zures Jason day Keegan Bradley now day a little bit here uh I guess he’s a former winner here uh you you don’t know what you’re going to get for top but for top 20 at these odds I like zalot torus I
Like Bradley and I can I can get behind day so I’ll play that at plus 1100 now for the final segment of our show Patrick and I have done actually pretty well now we we slipped up last week we did not have Wen Neiman but this week I
Decided to kind of copy your logic a little bit who do you like in Liv and they’re playing in Hong Kong yeah Liv golf Hong Kong this will start I believe Thursday evening for us on the East Coast um so just a heads up I know they
Usually get going on Friday and yeah Louis usas couldna come through for me another runner up I think that’s number three on the year unfortunately uh he’s like my white whale at this point I bet them in all three live golf events so far why not make it a fourth he’s
Playing some great golf dating back to uh this past fall where he won back toback on the DP World Tour uh so this course is tight off the te shopmaker golf course I think that’s Louis us into a t so at 22 uh with how much respect
Wen and Rah are getting in the market I think there is some value in that and then Patrick Reed he’s kind of just been bad honestly this season on LIF golf like hasn’t really done a whole lot but you look at last year he didn’t really
Make a ton of waves but when he did I mean he had like five top five finishes a couple podiums as well and so 50 to one I think I mentioned last week there’s like what 20 guys who can realistically win on live golf and I
Think Patrick Reed is one of them and so at 50 to1 I think he’s a nice long shot option uh what odds would you bet Anthony Kim at uh I think he’s 500 to one now would you would you play him anything under a million to
One I mean if anyone ever gives you odds 10,000 to one you gotta take them not for Anthony Kim you I think you could could compete with Anthony Kim right now especially on a course in Hong Kong which is not a not a very long course so
I think with your game I think you and Jay can compete with him you missed you missed the office reference uh but I uh no I mean professional golf is a completely different game I think a lot of people gave him a lot of crap for around of 76 which
12 years removed from the landscape is very impressive in my opinion can’t bet him though can’t bet him unable all right see absolutely not no can’t bet him in any capacity all right see this is a short course as I mentioned so I I don’t think it’s any you know it kind of
Makes sense why you’re picking Bryson to Shambo especially at 12 to one yeah I mean we had a shorter shot win last week I was actually thinking about taking with Keem nean keep in mind I told you last week I did not I don’t study this I
Don’t write the Articles and do the research you guys do so I’m really just kind of throwing a player out but I I’ve seen how Bryson’s done it well first of all last fall like he we saw him last year win a couple and I like the trajectory he’s on fourth place last
Week at golf Jetta uh T9 T25 before that t11 before that uh I you know and and by the way don’t forget like pre Bryson blowing up he was quite the tactician so I think he can I mean I think his game translates pretty much everywhere so I
Think at plus 1200 he’s certainly live to win on on a short course too I think it’s under like 6,800 yards I mean this is this is not a long one he could completely overpower this course so it that makes a lot of sense you know I
Pick Rory mroy to win uh he’s my top pick uh for the Arnold Palmer Invitational and if you remember last week Taylor G uh mentioned that he is you know that if Rory wins the Masters that it would have an asterisk because the best players are not there now I’m
Going Taylor gu at plus 1200 his last eight live rounds have been in the 60s he’s posted results this season t-15 T2 T6 he won three times on the TK on the circuit last season it’s in good enough form him to win again this week uh he’s priced low enough don’t necessarily love
The price but I do like do like the form and the player at plus 1200 and I’m going with Louie just for the reasons that that Patrick said he’s playing some great Golf and uh I think Louie definitely uh makes a lot of sense now
One thing about Liv that I want to talk about before we get going here so they’ve ended their bid for World Golf Ranking accreditation and they’re going to focus on working with the governing bodies of the major championships to get more of their players in the fields
Patrick your thought on this is this a good move to go away from the owgr and just kind of like beg the majors please put our best guys in or is there a better solution to this how long you got AC I’ll say 90
Seconds uh I think it it is you got to know who runs the owgr the owg grr has a seven person board four are from each of the four major championships you got the PGA Tour as well the DP World Tour and then the PGA Tour federations which is
Run by DP World Tour exec and so essentially I think neither livol nor the owgr put their best foot forward in this situation live golf didn’t uh tried to play by the rules right owgr came back said they don’t like the close shop Liv golf didn’t really change a whole
Lot about that they said they didn’t really like the team component they changed nothing about that owgr though from their point of view this hasn’t reached uh a tipping point where someone like Brooks Kea is out of their fields correct all the big names all the stars have status through I
Think I mean 2024 through this year since the 2025 maybe 2020 winners Bryson and and DJ so because of that this owgr conversation and centered around Taylor gu and no offense to Taylor gu but no one’s going to lose sleep over let’s say he’s the 40th best player in the world
No one’s going to lose sleep if the 40th best player in the world is not at the Masters and so what the majors can do who mind you run the owgr like I said they can invite these players as they see fit like one Wen Neiman so I don’t
Know what I make of it but I know neither side really put their best foot forward in my opinion I think that’s a great take CA do you have any opinion as far as either side making a mistake here is live should live pushing for it and
Saying come on we’ll take any rankings that we can get even if it’s not going to get us to the top or is it better just to say all right this isn’t going to work we’re gonna plead with the majors and say let our best guys in I
Co-sign what Patrick McDonald said and for the record I’m still waiting for this merger to happen sincerely Cen a shot Esquire like let’s let’s move this thing along they might need a new attorney I know the right guy Patrick when is this merger going to
Happen uh I I am not uh optimistic about it in any sense and there you have it I an expansive uh early wedge this week we covered so much ground we hit three golf tournaments we talked about you know the world of professional golf we got winners one of us is cashing something
This week and money will change hands with a showdown between CA and I against Patrick so check that out uh appreciate all of you watching uh thanks to Patrick McDonald thanks to C and aad thanks to producer Jake behind the scenes I am Eric Cohen and as I always like to say
Let’s hit it big good luck
3 Comments
Great shpw ! I love the showdown fun. Thanks TEAM
EC wouldn't know value if it sat on his face.
Ludvig Aberg at $9500? Must be a misprint.