John Middlekauff discusses Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, and other top PGA Tour stars failing to win tournaments and draw interest away from LIV Golf. He also reacts to Anthony Kim’s return to golf after a 12-year absence and shares his predictions for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

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Okay welcome to goo our golf podcast here uh typically it’s hard last week we didn’t do one because we were at the combine next week with free agency probably won’t happen either uh it’s going to be a pretty heavy summer podcast for sure and starting in a couple weeks guests

And definitely do some stuff for the YouTube channel on the course and at the rain screwing around uh got got a lot of ideas but I did have just some different thoughts uh on golf I ended up gambling last week I I didn’t place any pre-tournament bets and then came Sunday

I’m like I kind of want some action on this thing live bet have some thoughts on that because I I think there is a little bit of a market there you can take advantage of um and then just some overall thoughts I saw soble had a tweet

On all the winners this year and let’s face it for business it’s been really bad I mean for those individuals it’s been awesome but in ter terms of star power you talk about a lot of long shots so far Anthony Kim uh a once very famous polarizing young Superstar 15 plus years

Ago uh in the late 2000s and really the early 20010s but really by 2012 13 his his career kind of disappeared couple thoughts there and then we got a tournament this weekend and I’ll give a couple thoughts but uh yeah I mean we we just got I think a couple weeks till the

Players and then you know the Masters isn’t too far away so yeah this fun times obviously the majors this year are going to be pretty special because everyone gets together and it sucks because every time it’s like oh let’s talk some golf a huge conversation is like how screwed up everything is and

That’s just kind of the reality currently of the sport and it feels like I’m saying the same thing every time that I talk about it I saw Paul aing said like these tournaments are not quite the same you can’t have it split up and it doesn’t feel the same and this

Year simply’s been a disaster I think for the PGA tour from the sense that golf is not there’s not like some outcome that’s binary right like the Eagles play the Cowboys you’re gonna have a winner and a loser and it’s a polarizing discussion even when you win

What you did right what you did wrong obviously if you lose it’s devastating it it’s like that in the team sports right basketball baseball football hockey someone wins someone loses in golf it’s not really like that Kevin kizner gave this classic answer I I don’t know how long ago within the last

Seven eight years actually might have been a little more recent than that they asked him because he’s for those that don’t know kizner who basically is you know very very soon will be a full-time television employee and be awesome at it one of just the great personalities on

The PJ tour but he doesn’t hit it very far he’s kind he’s a very old school golfer I I would say in his prime a high-end Putter and just a very consistent player some a guy that you would have seen in the 90s and the 80s not your typical player in the 2010s

Where golf has become a lot about hitting it far and he definitely isn’t the farthest hitter and they asked him if he thought that he could win at every course and he basically laughed at the reporter he’s like I got no chance at half the events we play in and they gow

Then why do you play and he said because they pay a lot for 12th Place you make a lot of money finishing seventh and in golf like in football I at the combine you notice now everyone’s happy but like the ners were devastated right that that

Sucks losing in the Super Bowl like the Lions they had an incredible season the Packers you could tell were riding high right but at the time when you lose that playoff game it’s devastating where in golf if you finish fourth and you Bank 750 Grand that’s a good week unless

You’re like Rory mroy or tiger Phil in their Prime like the overwhelming majority of guys maybe Scotty Sheffer right now like if Justin Thomas and he’s a guy who’s won 10 plus times on tour won a couple Majors if he finishes fourth this week at the Arnold Palmer

That is a really good week for him especially given how he’s been playing I think the majority of guys at this tournament if they finish in the top six or seven it’s an awesome week yet they didn’t win and honestly depending on how it plays out they might not even be in

The mix on Sunday maybe they start today at like 27th and they shoot five or six under and all of a sudden you look up and they finish sixth they banked a lot of money and they had had a successful week golf is very very dependent on

Their Stars always has been back to Arnold Palmer and Jack Nicholas I mean Arnold Palmer was not even as accomplished as Jack he’s probably You could argue beside tiger the second most famous guy ever because of his business Endeavors through Greg Norman who a big part of Greg Norman wasn’t that he won

10 Majors he only won two he’s actually known for choking was his clothing brand and him on the business side of things right and then obviously led to tiger and Phil and tiger uh is probably and I’ve said this forever the second most famous athlete of my lifetime behind

Michael Jordan and there’s a level of Fame that those guys Michael was in the 80s and 90s tiger was late 90s free internet uh to be that famous like a lot of guys can become famous now there was a different level when it came to tiger

And you need your stars to carry your sport and right now because of Li paying and buying a lot of these Stars it’s diminished the product and then let’s face it the Stars haven’t played as well they have not won these tournaments my guy Jason soel Action Network gambling

Guy posted this I think last week on uh as my mother would say the X Channel Chris all the winners this year Chris Kirk 200 to one meaning if you would have put a dollar on Chris Kirk you would have won 200 if you would have put $100 on them you

Would have won $20,000 a lot of times like this weekend Scotty Sheffer he’s like six or seven to one in Tiger Woods Prime he was like three or four to one entering a golf tournament against 150 people now this week’s only 69 guys but still you’re not

Playing there’s a reason even a big Underdog in the NFL is like 4 to one it’s like I wouldn’t touch that the Giants got no chance to beat the Cowboys and they’re plus 400 in golf Grayson Murray 400 to1 Nick Dunlap who was an amateur meaning he was not even a

Professional golfer he’s the first amateur to win in 30 plus years since a guy named Phil Mickelson did it 300 to1 and it was pretty incredible because he was playing with Sam Burns and Justin Thomas two of the better Americans Matthew V his odds weren’t as

Crazy I’ll be honest never heard of the guy and I follow the [ __ ] really really closely 125 to1 wendam Clark who won the US Open last year and is a very famous you know relatively famous was just on the Ryder Cup really good player like that’s a legitimate winner but he won

Because the tournament got rained out and it was supposed to be him against lvic who’s like this upand cominging Superstar who’s currently like every single week he’s won one time and used to love betting him at like 4050 to one it’s now like 18 to1 don’t love it as

Much uh and then guys like Nick Taylor Jake nap who I made some money off of and it’s Mexico and last week Austin eout like these guys like the tour is not good enough to get casuals to pay attention if Rory Justin Thomas Jordan SP Scotty sheffler their top guys are

Not winning tournaments they they don’t need them to be competitive they need them to [ __ ] win and right now they’re not it doesn’t even feel like they’re remotely close so when you factor in the live and then you factor in when the guys are playing they’re not winning like that

Matters it does because it’s a big deal for a random guy if you make it if you’re a tennis player and you make it to Wimbleton first time and you’re 20 22 years old you just graduated University of Florida and all of a sudden you’re in the quarterfinals and you get worked by

Nadal or jokovic or whoever right incredible awesome for that guy but as a consumer we want that guy out we want to watch Nadal vers feder Agassi vers sers I want to see Jordan speed versus Scotty Sheffer I understand the DJ Bryson gepa those guys are gone not coming back it’s over

Right cam Smith their group of elite John ROM ideally we’d have them all and based on the numbers and this is why those guys the group of the top 15 guys have been consistently winning most of the tournaments the last several years well the moment you diminish

It it’s just harder it’s just a law of averages right you could have you could be a [ __ ] Legend in professional golf and win eight nine times think about Anthony Kim who will get to in a minute I think won four professional tournaments so there’s nothing wrong Kirt kyama last

Year won this tournament and it was cool battling other guys honestly even when Nick Dunlap wanted he has Justin Thomas and Sam Burns in the group that’s what makes professional golf cool but you can’t have that every single week part of what made tiger was like

You knew when he played most of the time he was going to win or felt like have a legit chance him and Phil there were some other random guys beside like the top guys Ernie and the other guys that played during their time but for the most part like they were the betting

Favorite for a reason because most of the time they were going to be right in the mix to win it right now that’s not what it feels like and the product is suffering it is suffering and I don’t believe like NBA product suffers why cuz for years tanking load management it’s

Like well they don’t care why should I baseball suffers why it’s kind of slow and in 2024 everything’s rapid speed short attention spans nothing the sport can do and they’ve tried right they’ve limited the amount of time you can step out of the Batters box the pitcher has

To go rapid fire golf the Sport’s not really going to change I mean they can mess with the equipment or the ball but the Sport’s the sport but the star power has to carry the sport and right now that simply is not happening and they’re limited on the amount of bodies they

Have to just do that so I I think you’re seeing that when you cut the high-end talent in half in a sport that has just the variance and the randomness if you win 10% of your starts as a PGA Tour player you’re going to go down as one of

The great players in the history of the sport 10% so if you play a hundred events and you win 10 of them you’re a Hall of Famer baseball it’s like you you hit you get three hits out of 10 right you’re a borderline Hall of Famer so it

Shows you golf the variance is huge it’s very very difficult it’s successful to get top fives and top 10 pays your mortgages pays your accountants pays for your second homes pay for your jet but for the interest for us like we need some winners and right now I really

Don’t know you can’t rig it right NBA they rigged it for the Lakers back in the day we know that Tim Don you happened don’t blame him like in with the mob and they did it football a lot of people think it’s rigged uh golf’s very hard anyone that has played knows

Like there’s a lot of Randomness you can hit shot of the day and it can roll over the Fairway into the lake right you can hit an incredible iron shot it’s just a yard off and plugs in the bunker this Sport’s really really random and right now the the randomization of

It is really hurting the sport because of live get in on the action with draftking Sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NBA new customers who deposit $5 or more can get a no sweat bet up to $11,000 back in a bonus bet download the draftking Sportsbook app now and use the

Code John new customers can get a no sweat bet up to $1,000 if your first bet loses only on draftking Sportsbook with code JN the crown is yours Anthony Kim made his return to live and when Anthony Kim played I actually last night watched maybe like the phones listening to me

Which I I know it is I watched in 2008 Anthony Kim was on the Ryder Cup and he played like this match against Sergio and kind of kicked his ass and it was awesome like he was he was fun to watch and you hear the players of his

Generation I saw Hunter Mayan on with uh with uh Colton no and and S Drew stz just telling what a fun energetic and just how talented the guy is and he was a freak but that was 15 years ago a long time ago now part of what made Anthony

Kim is like he had the aura that he partied a lot that he had like this Allen Iverson to him he was just the Ultimate Gamer but when you looked it’s not like he won maj pretty sure he only won four PJ tour events was a rider cut

Member and was really good was just a huge personality was just interesting in a sport beside tiger which isn’t always that interesting and then he disappeared and that anytime that you just disappear it kind of adds to what we think about you because the unknown is

Pretty powerful it to me is what has really diminished a lot of famous people is social media I know too much about you leave a little to be desire like part of what made the Last Dance pretty cool is like Michael’s not that open about stuff unless you’re friends with Michael

Jordan you don’t know what the [ __ ] going on you don’t hear him talk that often he’s I I wouldn’t say he’s Cloak and Dagger but he he’s a little mysterious and anytime that you take a famous person and you add some mystery to them especially with an athlete I I

Think it adds to the intrigue and that’s a huge part of Anthony km there’s a lot of stories he just disappeared didn’t do any interviews quit golf uh lot of stories that it was an injury and he took out a $10 million insurance policy

And it was just it was just gone so a lot of people have talked about him and when he was playing I’ll be honest like it was more tiger and Phil for me and I followed Nick watney’s career very closely because he grew up where I grew

Up and I would say those three guys but I wasn’t following the PGA Tour I definitely wasn’t gambling on it like what happens now and what I’ve been for the last three or four years so Anthony Kim returns and don’t blame Liv right they just gave him the equ they

Didn’t even put him on a team they they did their equivalent of like you’re just playing you’re a wild card and he finished dfl he’s got 76 76 74 which for me or you or most even single low single digits solid week good week and I’m not this is not to try to

Diminish anything I I don’t even hold it against them but that’s embarrassing for the for kind of that operation because it’s clear he’s just a sideshow he has no chance Keo won a major last year DJ is one of the best players in the history of the sport Bryson dambo

Clearly was one of the better under 30 guys in professional golf cam Smith won the open two years ago in the Players Champion you’re talking about the best players on the planet we can argue over walk Neeman and his tactics of always complaining he’s clearly an Elite Talent

An Elite Talent if he was on the PGA tour he’d be one of the better young players out there so you put this guy he’s got zero chance none absolutely none and I think Colin hit on this years ago when G came back and I give him

Credit because I thought guden was going to be successful I was like this is going to work not just the pizzazz and the buzz and the headlines like I bet guden wins for the Raiders and colins take was pretty simple you can’t leave a competitive industry for a decade whether that’s engineering whether

That’s Finance whether that’s coaching football or playing golf and then just come back and have any shot and I was thinking about it this morning because of how guden relates to Anthony Kim and it’s different right being the athlete being the guy playing and being the guy coaching but I do

Think there are some similarities when guden came back one thing that really crushed him is his lack of understanding on how to build the team and then you look back we never had to do that with the Raiders Al did that for him and then

When he got the Tampa job it was already built and GR starts taking all these guys who were big red flags troublemakers one guy that is long gone from the Raiders now was just arrested the other day for having like meth he had meth from Ohio State former Corner

Arnette well back in the 90s the reality is a lot of guys were doing shady [ __ ] and it was pretty easy to cover up in this modern day times it’s impossible so taking flyers on guys who are major red flags godspeed most of the time in this world

We live in it’s going to bite you in the ass and in golf I don’t care how many pickup games you play with guys at your Club listen Pros do it right now I saw wam Clark and Max hom and all those guys were playing the other day together and

Then they also play competitively on the PGA tour right I sometimes I I’ve been lucky enough to play with a lot of College golfers and you see how talented they are in the level that they have to play at to even have a snowballs chance in hell on the corn fairy tour so

Anthony Kim I don’t even blame the guy and I definitely don’t blame him for taking Liv’s money but this is gonna be really ugly he is going to constantly just not play very well he has no shot against any of these people even some of the washed bad players right pter

Westwood some of those type guys even Phil now are in a different Stratosphere they’ve been playing competitively the entire time since this guy disappeared so they play their home games right were at their club with their buddies bullshitting hanging out and then they’ve also been playing on the PJ tour

Playing in majors and now even on live for the last several years so I guess I I didn’t have any preconceived thoughts how he would play How could but after he finished dfl it’s really not that shocking I would expect him to finish last pretty consistently moving

Forward and if he doesn’t it’s kind of an indictment on anyone that he beats if you get beat I don’t care how talented this guy was 15 years ago against a guy who hasn’t played competitively in 10 plus years you should be ashamed you really should it’d be like a

Dude who retired from the NFL or baseball for a decade plus and just showed back up and could win a starting job that’s not possible it just is not and it’s clearly not possible at golf either and we just learned that with Anthony Kim the Arnold Palmer is this week and

One thing golf tried to do once Liv happened is up the money for its guys so they created these Signature Events and uh they paid out a lot of money when Windam Clark won at Pebble Beach he won $4 million same with Hideki at Rivier who

Also won this year while he was 80 to one I’d say he’s a little unique I would not put him in the category of all those other winners he’s famous you want him winning on the PG tour hadi’s an elite player when he’s on obviously but these Signature Events to

Me they’re toold just as a fan suck I hate them I I don’t like watching golf events when there is no cut a huge part of professional golf is trying to make the weekend just like a huge part of an NFL training camp is trying to make the

Team and then for the majority of guys at any moment you can get cut in the NFL it’s what makes the whole sport pretty intriguing how hard it is to hold on to your job it’s why you have to have so it’s why I have infinitely more respect

For 99% of play players than most of the coaches in the NFL assistants too because it’s much easier to become an assistant coach obviously if you’re a great head coach an Andy Reid a Jim Harbaugh Kyle mcy like those guys are the cream of the crop there are so many

Guys in the NFL stealing it coach it’s hard to steal in professional football as a player you might get overpaid or whatever but you’ll get you’ll get replaced quick I mean hell they cut Russell Wilson they owe him $85 million like get the hell out of the building

And that’s always what golf had like if you’re off you just aren’t going to make the weekend whether you’re Tiger Woods Phil Mickelson John ROM you name it Justin Thomas played like [ __ ] at RI didn’t play Saturday or Sunday see you later adios godspeed have a good weekend

And so anytime you have these no-cut events I understand from a business perspective if I am the person that’s financing the sponsorship like I want the bigger names there but that’s always what’s made golf kind of unique there’s no guarantee you have to earn your way there right and so these Signature

Events now have no cut because they’re basically just trying to disperse the money to the high-end guys basically guaranteed that you’re going to get some cash which I do understand but as a viewer bores me I I don’t really Friday Thursday and Friday it doesn’t even

Matter I also think it’s much harder to gamble on because all the best players are in this relative that are are still around on the PJ tour and if I give any if I give Scotty sheffler four rounds even if he plays like [ __ ] the first

Round let’s say he has his worst round of his career 78 he’s liable to shoot 66 6766 the next three days all of a sudden he’s right back in it where if this was traditional tournament 99% he’s gonna miss the cut and I think my voice just cracked

Right there so I hate it and Tiger Woods has talked about it he hates it a part of golf especially in regular season events is knowing that like you need to play well to make it to Saturday I’ve talked with people that have played on the corn fairy tour a lot

Of them believe that and these guys are like high-end players right if you’re playing well it’s actually easier to make a cut at a PJ Tour event than it is a corn fairy event because sometimes if you’re playing a hard course at a PJ Tour event you might just have to be

Like one or two under to make the cut look the corn fairy to make a cut sometimes like 10 under nine under seven under like you got to be lights out birdy Fest and that’s not what this week is uh last year I think the winning score was like 12 or 13

Under I have had success the last couple weeks live betting for example last week’s Saturday night it had just ended I’m like I I need some action for tomorrow I didn’t know it was going to be rain delayed or whatever and Jake knap who I had actually just bet the

Week before when he won in Mexico I’m like God he’s kind of right in the mix for a top 10 I could get him at basically plus 200 which was two to one and he has no pressure so it’d be one thing if he was winning feel the

Pressure of being backto back he he hasn’t played on the PJ tour very long like he’s just playing really well so I hammered him cam young as well cam young I like him to win this week he’s a guy rder cup president cup level guy just a

Guy that for some reason has not won on the PGA tour but he’s an Elite Talent and he is another guy I hammered last week ended up finishing like tied for fourth I like him this week at like 22 25 to1 I think DraftKings right now he’s

Maybe 24 to1 22 to1 25 to1 numbers changed a little bit I like him to win this week last year he finished top 10 and but my strategy if you don’t want to bet before the tournament I don’t think it’s that crazy on DraftKings you can monitor the tournament as going and find

Pretty incredible odds you can’t just bet you can just bet for them to win but you also can do top fives and top 10 couple other guys that I like to be top 10 this week a lot is Jason day who has resurrected his career these last two

Years finished top 10 last year at this tournament and U you can get like basically plus 250 same with Wills Alors who another guy who I live bet at Riviera who I would not have bet before the tournament because at the time he hadn’t played that well still a little

Risky with the back and then all of a sudden you’re watching them you’re like this is the wills alator that I have seen compete to win majors and I’m just betting on that this week I don’t think it’s crazy if you want to sprinkle a

Little on him to win but like like I’ve told everybody not saying that I don’t occasionally do it it’s it’s hard not to right we all get the itch I do think the way if you want to consistently make money is to bet top 10 and even top 20s

Like one top 20 now this guy played like [ __ ] last year at this tournament he did not make the cut shot like eight over in two rounds I think this is a baller and I’ve bet on this guy a decent amount to finish top 10 and he’s cashed a couple

Times this year Eric Cole who is like a 33-year-old secondy year PJ tour member I think he’s the grandson of Arnold Palmer and it’s not necessarily because like I’m betting on him because this is Arnold Palmer’s tournament I just think he’s really good and you can get him the

Top 20 to top 20 gives you a lot of leeway this thing like bet and football or basketball like you’re either winning or you’re losing right you’re either covering the spread or you’re not top 20 gives you a lot of you you get four rounds basically the cut is the top 50

Well there’s only 69 guys making it so you got to feel pretty good about your guy making the cut you got to be a disaster to miss the cut if you’re in the mix even if you’re like 40th hit it into the weekend couple rounds of 69

You’re right there all of a sudden cash like I I’m tempted to put like $1,000 on Eric Cole plus 230 to top 20 and I think that’s my new strategy instead of doing like 50 75 $100 on guys to win and hope to hit like

25 30 40 to one bigger Bets with more leeway top 10 and top 20s and I’m gonna sprinkle on cam young to win but I I top 10 I’ve already bet zalot torus cam young and Jason day and I’m going to bet before the tournament Eric Cole as well

Top 20 and that’s what’s cool about DraftKings is it gives you the ability to bet all the finishing positions which is a powerful thing because winning is very very hard uh listen any of these guy Klay Xander all these guys can win this tournament right and they they

Might right some random guy based on the history of this year could win this tournament probably not in in an elevated event you wouldn’t think but who knows uh I do think top 10 though in top 20s when you bet on guys that are playing well and I’m telling you Cam

Young is playing well I’ve watched them very closely cuz been having money on him and zot torus as well the the uh the game he showed at Riviera when I won when did I win oh I won it might have been zot torus won me like $1,500 I immediately put like $250

On him to win The Masters I think at like 35 or 40 to one so I know the payouts like $7,500 so I I already got a ticket on zotor just because he’s played well there before but let’s let’s enjoy the golf

8 Comments

  1. I truly think LIV is going to be a much better product over the long term. If LIV is smart with their money, they could make the PGA completely irrelevant by 2030. A lot more enjoyable to watch especially live on YouTube

  2. The PGA is sunk. LIV has won the war and in the long term it makes more sense. The petrodollar is dead, the money is not going to be in the USA anymore and the players have to go where the money is. Rory’s whining isn’t going to stop that.

  3. I have a really hard time watching a LIV tournament, I’ve been trying to give it a chance but haven’t really gotten into it.

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