Action Network contributor and golf betting expert Tony Sartori joins Golf Digest’s Andy Lack to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

Subscribe to Links and Locks podcast here: www.actionnetwork.com/podcasts/links-locks

00:00 – Introduction
00:33 – bet365 Promo
01:20 – Lucas Glover
02:53 – Victor Hovland
04:50 – Cameron Young
06:11 – Will Zalatoris
07:48 – Sahith Theegala
08:39 – Tommy Fleetwood
09:48 -Byeong Hun An
10:41 – Keegan Bradley
12:07 – Adam Scott
12:56 – Shane Lowery
14:45 – Harris English
15:27 – Cameron Young
16:44 – Scottie Scheffler
18:33 – Byeong Hun An
20:00 – Mattheu Pavon
21:04 – Stefan Yeager
22:42 – Si Woo Kim
23:30 – Rory Mcilroy vs Scottie Scheffler

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#AuthorTonySartori #BlueWireVideo

Welcome to links and locks Action Network golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host Andy lack and I will be joined alongside action golf contributor Tony Sartor for these Best Bets episodes and just like Jason have and Ben have done in the last couple

Years Tony and I will play 18 holes today giving our 18 favorite picks for this week’s Tour event the Arnold Palmer Invitational beill before we dive into this week’s episode a reminder that the links and lock podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary

That’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and

Best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at at 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 or older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1-800 Gambler or 1-800 bets

Off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply okay Tony we are on the first T here for our Arnold pmer Invitational Best Bets get us started all right absolutely so smaller field this week another signature event but it should be an awesome week and here’s what I’m looking for at Bay Hills I’m

Looking for strong drivers or at least it doesn’t even have to be distance just gain Strokes off the te and or just good ball striking it’s a big course mostly flat but there’s a lot of water you got to avoid that and that’s why I think ball Strikers will succeed here we saw

It last year where four of the top seven finishers ranked 12th or higher in Strokes gain in Strokes gained off the te and driving accuracy those are the only two stats or metrics whatever you want to call them where that type of Trend Ur and that’s going to bring me

Into my first outright pick for the week and that’s ludvig Oar at 20 to1 I mean we’ve talked about him on the podcast before he’s the next up in terms of like generational Superstars it didn’t take him long to win on toour he already won at the RSM classic back in November his

Ball striking receives all the attention as it should he’s an elite ball Striker but he’s also a great putter there’s not really a weakness in his bag um he actually game more Strokes putting at that RSM classic than he did in any other category and the reason I

Mentioned this is because the RS classic is a tournament that is also contested on Bermuda grass greens which is what he’ll be putting the same putting surface he’ll be on this week and then I mean this guy has one of the purest swings on tour I think he’s next up and

It’d be a huge statement wi for him if he’s able to win this week at 20 to one so that’s what I’m gonna start us off with that was the first bet that I made on Monday morning as well it’s the first first pick that I have laid out here on

My outline so I’ll pivot um I’m going to go with another young Scandinavian bomber of the ball Elite long iron player in Victor hofland uh who you can find at 15 to1 enhanced win on bet 365 hland uh struggled a little bit to start the year it’s been a little bit of

A muted 2024 for the reigning FedEx Cup champion uh with that being said I think that’s baked into his number I think 15 to1 on this golf course where he’s gained over nine Strokes ball striking each of the last two years uh is an incredibly Fair number on hland a guy

Who actually it really started to come together for him at Rivier he gained over a stroke and a half in both ball striking categories and even more encouraging the number one thing that you always worry about with hland is the short game he gained Strokes around the green both Saturday and Sunday at

Riviera and he has been working quite hard on the short game as well from my understanding also not to mention the fact that if you really dive into it and you look at many of jain’s best around the green performances in his career have come on courses with thick rough

And Bermudagrass courses right so kin’s best short game performances they’re at courses like Los Angeles Country Club Memorial Oak Hill East Lake TPC Southland right and I think that’s because it’s a little bit easier for a guy like hin to pop the ball out of thick rough uh it’s a little of a

Different chipping technique so I think the combination of the elite ball striking that he brings and the fact that he always seems to raise his Baseline around the green on these types of courses with thick rough I am going to roll with Victor hlin 15 to1 enhanced

Win on bet 365 I love it I agree with you and I definitely think that that number is higher than it would be had he not had that kind of poor start to this season but I’m also going to go to a guy who’s been playing a terrific brand of

Golf recently and that’s Cameron young so right now he’s 28 to1 at bet 365 I mean this guy he’s got three straight finishes inside the top 16 he he’s just coming off that fourth place finish at last week’s um at last week’s event down in Florida young I mean he’s gained

Strokes off the te in each of his past six tournaments and now ranks fifth um in this field in Strokes g off the te this season the driver has been excellent his putting is also starting to get hot especially on Bermuda grass screens as he has gained true Strokes

Putting at both the cognizant classic and the Waste Management Phoenix Open two venues are both contest or two tournaments are contested on Bermuda grass greens as well he finished inside the top eight in both those tournaments so I mean if the driver’s working well his irons are working well his Putter’s

Working well that’s kind of a pretty good recipe for Success here at Bay Hill and then finally speaking of success here at Bay Hill young has finished had the top 13 twice in each of his two appearances here so he’s played this course well he’s in outstanding form so

I think 28 to1 is just a little long so I think it’s worth the shot there as another outright winner for Cameron young love that he uh just missed my betting card but he will be coming up for me in a different Market later in this podcast I’m going to go with Will

Zator 32 to1 enhanced win on bet 365 uh I think you just want to play will zator on these types of golf courses with thick rough and firm greens he is the number one player in Tia green over the last five years when you filter out firm

Courses with thick Ruff and you look at his success at tracks like Riviera Tory Pines he is a 10th place at Bay Hill before the country club at Brookline that Us open venue Southern Hills uh he has had so much success on these more difficult total driving and long iron

Test obviously he is starting to really round into form after a second place finish at Riviera I think you just want to go to zalot Torres on these types of tougher golf courses that emphasize ball striking he is has spoken about many times before including in his press

Conference at Riviera about how these types of courses these types of major championship tests bring out the best in him he does not like easy golf courses with a high greens and regulation percentage where he has to Output the entire rest of the field this is a type

Of golf course that is going to accentuate his Elite TI green skill he is a high ball hitter who can get the ball to stop on these firm greens with a long iron I think that is the number one most important thing at bill so I’m

Going with Will zotus 32 to1 this week enhance win on bet 365 yeah I love it he does always Elevate his game on these tougher courses and I I was very close to picking him in that right Market as well I’m going to transition us into the finishing positions market and I’m going

To go after zahit the gala top five which is 11 to1 I think that number is just too long for a guy of his talent he finished fifth at the waist management Phoenix Open second at the Sentry those are against also pretty solid Fields um and those tournaments were also both

Contested once again on Bermuda grass greens which we will be putting on this week he gains Strokes putting at each of those tournaments and but not only can he putt he’s fantastic with the driver he ranks 45th on two and strokes gained off the te and this is of course he’s

Played before he just finished 14th here last year his game is only continue to improve since them so I mean if you’re telling me that 11 to one that he’s going to be not uh positions better than last year I think that’s absolutely worth the shot

So I’m going to go after theala top five at 11 to one love that I’m gonna go to the top 10 market and roll with Tommy Fleetwood at plus 230 another player who typically raises his Baseline when the going gets tough he has had a tremendous

Amount of sex success both at Bay Hill and in the State of Florida he’s played well at the Honda Classic before he’s played well at the play players before he loves Bermuda greens he loves tougher conditions he loves windier conditions that’s why he’s played so well at us

Opens before British opens before uh and he’s playing some pretty good golf to start the year obviously he won on the DP World Tour in Dubai had another solid top 10 finish at Riviera uh I know we have some difficulties with Tommy Fleetwood closing the door on this side

Of the pond on the PGA Tour but I think to get him at over 2 to one just to finish in the top 10 on a golf course that should accentuate his Elite scrambling ability his Elite T to Green ability I’m going to roll with Tommy

Fleetwood plus 230 in the top 10 Market nice nice I’m gonna stay in that top 10 Market as well and I’m gonna go after Ben on top 10 at plus 360 there a guy I feel like I Target every week um he’s just I just think he’s one of the better

And more underrated players on tour and I still feel feel like the market consistently undervalues um his pricing he’s finished in the top 10 and four of his past 11 tournaments so that bodess well when you’re catching a number at plus 360 especially in a field now we’re

Only going to have 69 guys playing on uh this week and this is also a course there been on he’s had success he finished 10th here in 2019 so he’s proven that he can fall within this range at Bay Hill and it really shouldn’t be shocking that he’s shown

Success here given that he’s a great ball Striker he ranks 26 on touring Strokes game off the te and I just think he’s in good form he’s finished top 10 here before so plus 360 it’s worth a shot of Ben on to finish top

10 huge fan of that play uh I have a Benny on play coming up myself in another Market I’m gonna go with Keegan Bradley top 10 four to one uh Keegan Bradley is another player that typically raises his Baseline in tougher conditions he’s had a sneaky great

Record in FL Arda and on Bermuda as well he finished seventh at the Players last year actually fifth at the Players seventh at the Players a couple years ago he’s got a runner up at the vbar in the last two years uh he’s playing some great golf this year uh a little bit

Under the radar remember he almost won the Sony Open in January on Bermuda uh so I think got 4 to one to finish in the top 10 a player that has a lot of pedigree has raised his Baseline in tougher conditions former major Champion winner has uh had a lot of success has

No problems playing against some of the better Fields Keegan actually historically raises his Baseline in tougher field events he did win a signature event last year at TPC River Highlands so at 4 to one just to finish in the top 10 I think there is a ton of

Value on Keegan Bradley this week at plus 400 AB absolutely and you just talked about um a guy with high pedigree former major Champion that’s exactly where I’m going in the top 20 Market with Adam Scott at plus 150 so he’s he’s getting a little bit older now obviously

But he had a bit of a Resurgence last fall and it all started when he finished fifth at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship again other Bermuda grass greens obviously um following that tournament he went over to Europe for the winter and he fired off three straight top seven finishes obviously

Over in Europe you’re not facing as tough a competition but that’s still impressive nonetheless so then he came back here in um in the beginning of this season and that success has just continued to mount for him he’s finished inside the top 20 in all three of his

Tournaments over here so I mean with that Trend and that plus 150 I feel like it’s worth to take a shot on a former major Champion former Masters champion um to compete against some of the world’s best and continue to like find himself in top 20 of leaderboards So

Adam Scott top 20 plus 150 love that I’m going to go with another former major Champion that actually broke my heart last week in Shane Lowry uh I was on him as an outright play it looked like he had a very good chance heading into Sunday he

Was tied for the lead with two other very unproven PGA Tour players couldn’t get the job done on Sunday that water ball on 15 sunk our hopes and dreams but I actually think there’s a lot of value on him this week I was very surprised to

See his odds I’m betting him plus 175 in the top 20 Market again as you mentioned this is a field of 69 players I looked back because this is not the first time that Lowry has had a disappointing defeat at the Honda Classic uh remember he finished second in heartbreaking

Fashion again uh in 2022 he came back the very next week and finished 13th at the Players right so I’m I I don’t think that there will be some sort of emotional let down for Shane Lowry this week he is still a great driver of the ball a great long

Armon player he is won and played a lot of excellent golf on tougher courses with thick rough and firmer greens uh he’s played great at major championships he’s won the Bridgestone before that’s another tough long golf course with a thicker rough he’s got second at the US Open at Oakmont that’s another Tough

Golf Course with thick rough and F greens so Shane Lowry I wasn’t planning on betting him but when I saw plus 175 just to finish in the top 20 Market I could not resist going back to the well with the northern Irishmen absolutely I’m actually G to be

Right kind of with you I got a veteran top 20 plus 160 so right around that Mark and that’s Harris English so like Scott English is kind of a guy who’s had a bit of a Resurgence over the past year he’s now finished inside the top 20 in

Each of his past two tournaments and in five of his past eight so that boats really well for a number like plus 160 again especially yes the competition’s stiffer but there’s still only 69 guys in this field and why I think he’ll profile well here is that he’s gained

Strokes off the te in seven of those eight outings and he now ranks 42nd on tour and strokes gained off the te I just want to keep riding this momentum and I think English top 20 at plus 160 is worth a shot this week love that I’m going to go into the

First round I’m going to take a into the first round leader Market uh for the first time in this episode and go with a player that you’ve talked about before already and Cameron young is 30 to1 first round leader um I was filtering out looking at difficult scoring

Conditions round one smaller Fields over the last couple of years right so who are the players that get off to a be the best starts in smaller Fields no cut events I think the strategy changes a little bit for these guys when they know that they have four rounds to work with

Maybe it frees them up a little bit particularly in difficult scoring conditions when they know they don’t need to go out there and make a million birdies and it’s a marathon not a Sprint Cameron young has ranked sixth in this entire field in round one under those

Conditions I think just as a full tournament play you laid out all of the reasons why this is a great golf course for him I think he is starting on second base at a golf course like Bay Hill due to his Elite total driving ability so

I’m going to roll with Cameron young 30 to1 in the first round later Market this week at beill absolutely I love it obviously I love it because I got him out right but um I’m GNA keep I’m going to keep us in that first round leader

Market and go after the chalk and that’s Scotty sheffler he’s 16 to one I just think that it’s worth a shot you can get this number wider because to win the tournament the like N9 to one or 10 to one so you this is a way to back Scotty

If you want a little bit of a higher payout as I always say on this podcast I have not locked this in yet I do want to see the tea times before I lock any of my first round leaders in right now I’m leaning Scotty I mean it’s just there’s

No tournament that he’s never not going to be in there’s no round that he’s never like he’s going to be a favorite to win every round that he’s ever going to be a part of right at least the way he’s playing right now but the one reason I particularly like him this week

To um and Thursday on top is that his one weakness obviously been putting right that been the case for the past few years for him but he does perform better on bermu to Grass greens and most people do just because it’s usually a little bit of easier pting service and

Like the then POA annual for example but he finished third at the Waste Management Phoenix Open which he’s a two-time winner of fifth at the century and he won the Hero World Challenge that’s all been this season and all three of those or tournament are contest on Bermuda grass greens the reason

That’s what’s more impressive than just the finishing position because he’s always in the top 10 anyway is that he gained cumulative Strokes putting over those three tournaments it is very rare you ever see Scotty shefer come out in the Green in True Strokes putting but over those three tournaments he has been

So considering that if the putter is working we know everything else in his bag is going to work so I think it’s worth than 16 to1 for Sky Shuff lead after the first if he’s able to keep that putting at least at least just keep it Baseline and not lose Strokes putting

On this ber grass greens which I don’t think he will like that one I’m going to stick with the first round later market for one more and go with Benny on 40 to1 first round later you talked about him earlier in another Market he is another

Player that just seems to get off to a really heart hot start whenever I filter out round one uh benion is one of the biggest risers in this field in terms of his Baseline in round On’s uh you mentioned his just course fit in general he’s had a lot of sneaky success on

These tougher courses with firm greens and thick Ruff I’m looking at the 2020 BMW Championship at Olympia Fields like this very rock hard greens thick rough windy test that’s very synonymous with the scoring conditions that you see at Bay Hill Benny on came out of nowhere to

Finish 12th in that tournament he also has a runner up and an 11th at the memorial uh another course kind of synonymous with these conditions that accentuate Elite total driving ability and he’s playing really good golf right now he’s got back-to-back top 25 finishes he started off the year with

Back-to-back top five finishes so he’s already got four top 25 finishes and six starts this season on the PGA tour uh he’s very comfortable on Bermuda uh he’s had a lot of success on Bermuda in the past I’m G Benny on 40 to1 first round later absolutely and I’m going to keep

Us in that first round leader market for one more on my end and I’m going Matthew pavon uh first round leader is 66 to1 so he’s obviously in great form he’s right out he’s up there in the FedEx um standings he just went at the Farmers Insurance open he immediately followed

It up with a third place finish at Pebble Beach he’s got a good all-around game and I kind of trust every Club he has in the bag but like he’s able to gain Strokes off the te he’s 44th on tour in that uh category but another

Thing that I think where he could stand out this week is that he’s 16th on tour in Greens in regulation percentage from 100 to 175 yards that is the largest distribution of where approach shots come from this week and so if he’s um gaining Strokes on the field by hitting

Greens from a distance that he’s very comfortable with then I don’t think it’s out of the question that he gets off to a hot start or rather continues his hot start to the season on Thursday so that’s 66 to one I like Pavan in the first round he’s I think the reason this

Number is even this long is because he’s never played here before but neither did Kurt kyama and he won it last year so I’m not I’m not too worried about that I’m going to go back to the top 20 market for just one more in the top 20

Market before I close this out with the matchup here and roll with Stephan joerger two to one plus 200 top 20 he was very disappointing for us last week at the Honda Classic but I’m going right back to the well with Stephan joerger uh very much shades of Kurt Kama last year

In ter terms of the type of skill set that joerger possesses uh he has picked up a lot of distance this year okay joerger has quietly found himself as one of the longest drivers now on the PGA tour he’s a great long iron player as

Well I just think if you want to go looking down farther uh for some value down the board in terms of players that are still able to possess that Elite TI green skill that has allowed players like Scott and Rory and Jason day and tiger over

The years to have so much success at Bay Hill Stephen joerger can give you a b version of that at a much more depreciated price I think there’s a lot of value on what Stephen joerger can bring to the table so I am betting him

Just in a field of 70 to uh finish in the top 20 that is one of my favorite bets on the board this week Stephanie jger top 20 plus 200 bet 365 that number shocks me I think that’s it I I really really really like that

Play I got burned by him last week as well but it was definitely wasn’t his driver last week that wasn’t the problem so if he’s able to carry that again this week I like that a lot but um then for my final play I’m going to go top 30 I’m

Going to go SEIU Kim and that right now is just even money top 30 you just got to beat out half this field I think the I think undoubtedly cuk Kim is a top 30 to 35 golfer in this field I mean just feel feels like a safe number at plus

Money he’s got three top 25 finishes over his past four tournaments he’s gained Strokes off the te in all four of those outings yeah he’s not a long hitter but he’s accurate so he’s going to avoid that water he’s going to avoid um problems and I think with that

Accuracy or I’m sorry due to that accuracy Kim R’s 28th on tour and strokes gained off the T I think that’s just that’s more than enough that he’ll need to do just to beat out H or finish in the top half of this field at plus

Money love that I’m going to finish this off uh with a matchup and I’m going to go to the very top of the board here I’m going to take Rory mroy plus 110 over Scotty Sheffer um I want to get some exposure to these guys I think that on a golf

Course like Bay Hill that probably accentuates TD green skill more than nearly any other golf course on the PGA tour um I think one of these guys I’m hitching my wagon to Rory this week is going to be highly relevant in this tournament the PGA Tour certainly needs

That uh this week for their stars to finally show up uh and Rory is rounding into form I loved what I saw last week from him at the Honda Classic or the rename the cognizant he was one of the laters in Strokes gained off the te gained over five Strokes off the tea

Last week and Scotty was spotted this morning fiddling around with a new putter uh he’s going back to the spider who knows if that works out for him he could easily be the winner of this tournament by five Strokes we know the elite T green skill that Scotty

Possesses but Rory’s hitting the ball almost as good as uh Scotty right now and he has been an absolute walking top 10 at Bill he’s got a win here he’s got seven other top 15 finishes in eight appearances I trust Roy putter just a little bit more than I trust Scotty’s

Putter right now um you know first time going to a mallet from a blade there’s just a lot going on right there uh right now with Scotty on the greens it feels like he’s gotten a little bit in his head uh so I’m gonna take the chance

That that plus money um I think there’s not a lot of separation between these two players right now on this golf course and if you’re going to give me plus money on Rory mroy I am going to take it uh so that will do it for us on

This Best Bets segment that is our 18th pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational before we get out of here final reminder that the Winson locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else every

Day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the

Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at at 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona Colorado Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem called 1 800 gambler or 8800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply and a

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Just check out the link in this episode description as a reminder our action expert Spencer AAR and Nick brwi return with host Roberto Arguello tomorrow for the Arnold Palmer Invitational betting preview right here on the links and locks podcast so far Tony Sartori I’m your host Andy laak and we will see you

Back here next week on the lnks and locks podcast presented by B 365

2 Comments

  1. Great Stuff Andy & Tony. The past 6 winners of this event were all in the top 10 (maybe even T5) on Par 4 scoring at this course. If you look up Who does well with Par 4 Bob% you can see guys that have done well at this course in the past. 1.)Scheffler, 2.) Bez, 3.) An. 4.) J. Day. 5.) Kirk.
    Cam Young (8th) Speith (10th) , and Hatton (obvious left but ranked 12th) and Was a Course Horse. So theres Def Correlation w/ this stat that adds to other Model Data for success at Bay Hill..oh and btw Aberg (14th) 🤷🏻‍♂️

  2. Hovland 2 years ago SG App. he was +2.024 SG. T-2 finish ……Last yr +1.834 Sg T-10 ….this year losing at -0.381 to put this into perspective how good to bad its been…. this year Scheffler is number one and he’s Sg +1.308 so even though he’s starting to find his form its NOWHERE near IMO good enough to finish T-5 or better. Love the Zalatoris Pick though!

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