The BeatinTheBookie Show: The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024

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All right what’s going on everybody Welcome in the beat in the bookie show today is Tuesday March 5th we are in the Arnold Palmer Invitational week one of the better weeks of the go PGA Tour season in my opinion and it’s just you know kind of a lead up up to the Masters

We’re getting there but AR Arnold Palmer Invitational great tournament again one of the Signature Events um Bay Hill always plays real tough $20 million on the line here what are your thoughts about it yeah the API is always one of the I think it’s probably the second Mo second

Premier event in Florida outside of the uh the PLAYERS Championship um it’s a nice course and um you know we’ve seen some great you know action here the last few years um who can forget you know Bryson Des Shambo driving it over you know the 300 whatever yard water still one of the

Best replayed golf clubs ever man it’s so good it is and I think John Daly had like a 16 here on that hole like in like 98 so um you know it’s a fun it’s a fun course it’s a tough course and um there’s lots of players who have had

Like consistent success here um it’s a signature event so it’s $29 prize pool it is uh 69 players only and if you’re within the top 10 you know if you’re within 10 shots of the lead headed into Saturday you make the cut um so it’s going to be an interesting week

Especially with some players coming off of uh you know playing Monday at the cognizant classic in Palm Beach uh luckily they don’t have to travel that far right um but it’s gonna be a it’s an interesting event for sure yeah man the cognizant you know extended over into Monday it was a

Little bit of a snoozefest I I won’t lie you know I did bet it but it was it was an okay tournament it was an okay tournament but I definitely expect API a little easier to say API than Arnold Palmer Invitational um but yeah I expect

The API to be a you know a huge draw for him so I’m definitely excited for this week um last year Kurt kyama the good old Champion um this year Scotty Sheffer obviously in every tournament he’s in he’s the favorite this this week he’s at

Six to one though um any any value on Scotty this week yeah you know Scotty won here in 2022 Bryson won in 21 T Hatton won in 2020 uh so two out of the last four winners are on the live golf tour and then you got Rory who won in 20 18 uh

With an 18 under which is one of the lowest scores to ever win this tournament so five underway last year right around there nine under won it last year Scotty won it at five under the year before um so yeah there’s definitely you know plus 650 I’m really

Not going to jump on Scotty right there uh because like I said you just want to wait to see you know how Scotty starts out maybe he buies the first hole right and his value goes up to plus uh 800 so he’s got a beard he’s got the spider putter

Back yeah so if you’re gonna you never want to bet the dead nuts favorite at that low of a number um if you want to bet Scotty sheffler I always say take him as a first run leader right so when Scotty plays well he starts out fast um

And you look at Scotty’s you know track record here it’s pretty amazing he got fourth place last year he got first in 2022 he didn’t play 21 and in 2020 he got you know 15th um below there’s actually a guy who I don’t like I mean I I who I didn’t

Like before but now he’s in favor of Liv Rory maroy um he’s he’s all of a sudden telling people hey you know maybe I would go to live you know you never know um Rory’s track record here is amazing right like I said he won it in 2018 he

Got sixth place in 2019 fifth place 2020 10th and 21 13th and 22 and he got second place here last year so his track record I mean this is the best this you know Bay Hill is where Rory M plays his best golf I mean just looking

At the results right you got five top 10 in the last six years and the worst place he finished is 13th so I like Rory I really like he performed so good at the scores I do and I love Rory here I se’s nine to one at uh you know at

DraftKings so I’ll definitely play some Rory here and I’ll play Rory for the top 10 um I think he’s like minus 250 for top 20 so not really interested in that but yeah definitely top 10 and to win I’m definitely going to play Rory maroy because he’s owned this course like like

Nobody else has the last few years yeah it doesn’t get any better than the resume for this course I mean what you said four five top Tims and and the worst is a 13 yeah I mean that that sounds pretty good to me what are his OD

What are his odds sitting at for top 10 um I think for top 10 he is he’s plus 100 so Great Value something that he’s done five out of his last or he minus 110 at bet MGM where they do not have the bogus Dead Heat odd

Results so if you’re looking to B him top 10 I recommend or bet MGM that’s some good advice right there you know I’m looking at DraftKings however you know plus 100 looks great but those Dead Heat rules that they’ve got you know maybe look somewhere else for sure yeah so I mean

Here you’re you’re really looking it’s aough of course so you know your approach you know off to te are like two of the most important factors here um because if the win picks up this place can be hell to you know you know hell to to play but you want to look for

Somebody who’s you know off the tea you know they’re accurate off the tea they’re hitting Fairways and uh you know coming into this event event who’s number one this season off the te Strokes gain Rory maroy uh he was number one last week at the cognizant uh I

Think he was like six Strokes better than the field off the T so he dominated off the T um he’s just gonna work on his uh his his putting right now you know he’s 44th in putting um but um like I said his track record says he gets

Rolling here so I love Rory here and another golfer who has you know a very good track record here I’m not a fan of this guy or this kid or you know I don’t really like him you know some people call him a snitch you know for snitching

On call orawa uh but Matthew Fitzpatrick uh he’s not really having a great season this year he’s actually playing pretty terribly but the last five years here he’s got 14th ninth 10th ninth and second place so um have mercy he’s he’s had a very good track record

Here so you know if you’re looking to bet somebody top 20 maybe take a look at Matt Fitzpatrick his top 20 is currently at a plus 105 uh at DraftKings plus 100 at B MGM with the Dead Heat odds so you definitely probably want to take a

Little bite of that because like I said Matt Matt Fitzpatrick it’s kind of like a kind of like Cameron Champs case for the Mexican open Mexico open right like he was playing terrible all all year and you know what better place to to get to

Get your game right than a a course that you’ve dominated the last you know five six years so I think that’s Matt fifth Patrick’s case this week he hasn’t been playing very well he’s coming in here and uh he knows like listen if I’m gonna start playing well I gotta start playing

Well here because I’ve dominated this event and um you know this is the place where I need to get my game back on because if I don’t you know what are we gonna do so um I like you know Matt Fitzpatrick top 20 here um definitely in

The spot and I might sprinkle him to win you know I don’t like the kid but you know 30 to one to win for his track record here that’s pretty would be shocked um another golfer I like you know he’s kind of come burst on the

Scene the last couple of weeks nap time baby jake nap I mean he’s sitting at minus 125 for top for top 30 and uh he’s been in the top 15 the last what is the last two weeks love Jake knap love Jake knap love the way he’s playing drives

The golf ball great puts the golf ball great great around the greens minus 125 for the top 30 let let me have it I mean former Club former College bouncer in college so um how come you’re not like that I heard I must have heard these guys talking about his muscles for the

Last two weeks right like oh he’s so strong and he’s definitely popular a popular talking head Choice Jim thought Jim Nance had a crush on him to be honest but yeah definitely uh you know he he he might be a little tired you know because he’s not really used to

Playing you know back to back to back like this so right he might be a little tired but yeah here I don’t think you’re going to see one of those newbies like you know when winning this event I think you’re going to see a big name win this

Event like a Rory or a Scotty or you know Matthew Fitzpatrick um so I mean you look for guys who are good off the tea here Victor hland right I mean he’s second he’s second off the tea right now in the PJ he last year he got 10th place here

The year before he got second place so Victor hain’s been playing playing well here also you know Sam Burns he’s fourth off the tea right now um first and bogey avoidance per round he he missed a cut here last year he got ninth the year before um so you know I

Might not play Sam Burns much but another guy who’s had success here Jordan spe who’s had a pretty quiet year up to now right Jordan uh I don’t know really what’s going on with him but he’s not not playing very well he’s six he’s 44th off the te right

Now so that doesn’t really Bode well coming into here um his approach he’s 60th and strokes gained approach um and obviously his his putting um is not you know what it used to be but he’s still 11th on tour and putting right now but he got uh fourth place here last year

And he got fourth place here in 2021 so uh can Jordan find a way to to up his game coming into year um you got Cameron Young Who I cancelled after he couldn’t bogey the 18th uh last week in the the second around but Cameron young sixth

Off the T and tour right now he got 10th place here last year and 13th in 2022 so maybe look at Cameron young for a top 20 finish um but yeah those are pretty much the core guys I’m gonna be looking at you know Scotty another guy Rory Rory is

My favorite though I’d say Rory is my favorite and Matt Fitzpatrick are my two favorites here another guy that I just can’t stand um Patrick Klay has been playing some great golf recently and he’s got a good track record here at this course he’s sitting at minus 150

For top 20 you know it’s a little juicy but you know love him or hate him you can’t deny the guy can play and I think I think one minus 150 is a pretty good spot for Patrick look as long as you don’t bet him to win I mean because he’s

I mean his his his choke in Pebble Beach a couple weeks ago was something to be hold um so you know Patrick he’s playing consistent right now he’s he’s 36 off the tea right now and uh he’s I mean he just not he’s not like for me right now he I

Mean he’s not a closer you know you want somebody who’s going to be a closer um and as I recall I think maybe last year either Scotty had a lead and he blew it to kyama or Rory had the lead and they blew it to kyama I forget what

Happened you know people know that I don’t usually like Rory but I love Rory this week week because Rory’s been playing some good golf coming into this and um Rory knows these Florida greens very well he lives in Florida so um I love I love Rory this week so you know

I’ll be I’ll be heavy on Rory for a lot of different plays but you know you you go down the list another guy who’s had success here the past you know three years is uh Harris English right 45 to one at DraftKings uh Harris is 18th off

The T right now um he’s uh he’s 10th and strokes gains putting um he’s playing some good golf he got second place here last year and he got ninth place here in 2020 so Harris plays this this course pretty well and um you keep going down the odds board

You got two guys at 50 to one Keegan Bradley who’s finished 10th here last year 11th in 2022 and 10th in 2021 then you got Corey Conor 50 to1 who got 21st last year 11th and 22 and third here in 2021 so Cory Conor for those guys and

Cory Conor has been playing some solid golf this year he’s eighth off the T right now um so Corey Connors might be another guy I look at for a top 20 um but yeah there’s a lot of guys who have had success here and um even Chris Kirk

You know you look down at Chris Kirk 55 to one um Chris got 39 year last year but he got fifth place 2022 and eighth place in 2021 he didn’t play in 2020 he got 15th in 2019 so he’s got as well he is he’s got three top top

15s here in the last four appearances so he he plays this course well also um even sjm Sun Jam’s got uh he hasn’t finished worse than 21st here the last five years um so you know sanjam he’s been playing some very bad golf here right now he’s 6C 6C on tour Strokes

Gained on his approach and you know that’s usually one of his better parts of his game so um can he get his game back I mean there’s a lot of golfers who who play well here and have some success so a lot of these guys might be using

Beill as like a springboard you know into the rest of the season because this is already the fourth signature event out of eight for the entire season so they’re going by pretty quick exactly so I look for you know I think one of these uh bigger names is

Going to win for sure yeah I agree I think it’s going to be an electric tournament you know it’s star studded for sure any matchups you like and look Jake knap like he’s having a great season he’s never played here before right so it’s it’s tough to see a guy

Who’s uh you know never played this this place especially when the win if the winds start to pick up here um this course can be it’s gonna be something yeah this course can be absolutely brutal I mean who can forget like I think it was 2021 when when Des Shambo

Won remember he had that like he had that t- shot that he like topped and it went like 30 yards off the te um so um yeah this is of course when when the win picks up it can be quite brutal but like any course if the conditions are are

Right uh plenty of scoring can be had like Rory like for example with his 18 under when he won it in 20 2018 astonishing number for this course it is I mean for this course 18 under I mean that’s somebody goes look if Rory shoots if

Rory shoots an 18 under uh this week he’s winning the tournament by five shots so um yeah definitely astonish I don’t think Kirk kyama is gonna win again but hey stranger things have happened for sure definitely any matchups on this week’s uh tournaments you like um I’ll probably play I kind of

Like Victor hin over Xander schafle like Victor he’s minus 105 over Xander um like I said Victor has a very strong horse history here and obviously last year he finished as you know one of the hottest golfers in the world right um and he’s coming in here he’s second

Play he’s second in the PGA right now in driving accuracy off the te and he got 10th here last year second the year before and you look at Xander who is you know Xander seventh off the te um 14th Strokes Strokes gain approach um Xander he’s the third favorite for this event

But he got 39 through in 2023 um and he didn’t play at 22 22 21 he did not play here he got 24th in uh you know 2020 so um yeah not Xander I’m definitely not looking to uh to support your I think he’s way overpriced so I

Probably won’t touch Xander at all unless I’m playing against Xander or fading Xander I can get pretty good pretty good value if you’re gonna fade Xander this week I mean I I hadn’t even thought about looking at Xander but his track record is not great I didn’t

Realize it was as bad as it as it is I mean it’s not terrible but it’s not great I mean 40th Place I mean you knowy exactly Cory Connors has been destroying him here and he’s way down the board so Xander he’s 16 plus 1600 that’s more for

The names so I’ll probably be staying away from him like I said unless I fade him this week yeah I mean solid analysis there I I couldn’t agree more um I mean you got anything else for the old API I guess you know I’ll give a take Rory outright plus

900 uh maybe we can get him a little better price let’s see what we can get Rory at for do a little sh all right for the best price uh plus 900 pretty much across the board so uh play Rory plus 900 to win it and

Um I’ll probably take uh Rory top 10 minus 11 10 at at MGM so no no Dead Heat odds there and then uh one top 20 play I’ll take is uh take Cory Conners top 20 finish plus 140 at bet MGM so that’s Rory to win auror top 10 top 10 and

Corey Conor’s top 20 plus 140 at bet MGM I’m gonna jump right on I’m taking Cory Connor’s tournament matchup over Russell Henley it’s minus 120 and then I’ve got one top 25 or top 30 and that is going to be minwoo Lee that’s what we’re going with Mr Lululemon himself you know Mr

Lululemon himself I’m repping for him so hopefully he can uh yeah get that top 30 finish but yeah I mean also Matt Fitzpatrick you know top 20 um it’s a place where he he can turn his game around so it’s gonna be a fun weekend I’m looking

Forward to it and I’m always looking forward to the honorable Palmer because that means uh March Madness is almost here and the Masters is almost here as well so beautiful time of year absolutely beautiful time of year I’m getting excited just talking about it let’s go don’t get too excited for that Masters

Pack package though because I got that last year your Tweet let me down yesterday so I tweeted out that I had purchased the masters tast of the Masters pack and uh quick purchase you know what did you what did you say not that great you know the barbecue the bar the

Pulled pork is good in it the okay that’s what I’m excited about the pimento cheese is good the egg salad was good I mean I had my wife are you an egg salad guy normally I mean I’ll eat it whatever I mean it was good um but the

Egg Sal they give you so much of it like there’s it’s really made for like if you’re having a party right like there’s a big tub of egg salad and I was just eating that [ __ ] by myself watching by myself so it was kind of like but what’s

Great is the Masters they give you like these plastic Master’s cups you know with all the logos on it and stuff so cool so many millions those the cookies were good uh I wasn’t a fan of the potato chips because they’re just plain plain potato chips but the cookies were

Really good so as long as the good as long as the pmin cheese is good um the PO pork is really good with the those Kings Kings Hawaiian rolls oh yeah because they don’t send bread with it correct no yeah there’s no bread so I

Just put I put the eggs out and all of it on the Kings Hawaiian rolls and it’s it’s pretty good like I said but it’s better if you’re having a party where a lot of people can have it because otherwise it’s impossible for one person

To eat all that stuff now I don’t know if if you click the link to check on it this year they did scale it back to where they offer a smaller version of it but the smaller version doesn’t come with the pulled pork so I’m like you

Know I got you gotta go P pork was it was really good the pulled pork so well maybe we’ll have a a live review of it on the channel coming up on Masters week we’ll see we might be doing a live we were talking about doing a live show for

Like during the Masters the live stream for the Masters um like as it’s going you know for maybe a couple hours every day um so we’re talking about that you know see what we can see what we can do for that see the logistics on that so we’ll let

You guys know but uh enjoy the uh Arnold Palmer invitation on this week and uh good luck everybody and uh we will be back next week yep see you guys next week