In this episode of the Golf Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, Matt Gannon breaks down the DFS pricing for the 2024 Cognizant Classic. He gives out all his favorite plays and fades from each price tier in DFS for the 2024 Cognizant Classic.
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Bets today who wouldn’t want to make smarter bets today because I I sure would I sure would so let’s get into the cognizant Honda pom whatever you want to call it my hometown event live about 15 minutes away I will be there tomorrow through Sunday my one of my favorite
Events hit the winner last year shout out Chris Kirk right over my shoulder yeah so we have another another beautiful event in the Palm Beaches uh and a strong field for what it’s worth this is one of the stronger Fields we’ve seen in Palm Beach Gardens in a few
Years so uh just when when Rory when Rory maroy committed to to the Honda or to the cognizant some we will say Honda for a while I’m sorry we will say Honda it it got it got the juices flowing for this event because no matter what we
Always get a great finish at this event we get a great tournament but not always the best field the PJ tour is dwindling away way week after week and we get one of the better cognizant Fields we’ve seen in years so Rory Maloy cam young Matt Fitz
Russell Henley Tom Kim round out the 10K range which we’ll we’ll get right into actually talk a little Mexico Little Mexico shout out to the Jake nabers great call thought he had no chance going into the week but if I’m going to Victory lap a win I’m going to Victory
Lap a a a dead wrong call I was wrong about nap but he came through and he came through in very impressive fashion I had Samy valaki 120 to1 fell just short so that was definitely a Sunday sweat that’s their fourth runner up this season fourth in
Eight weeks zero dollars could have been 15 plus racks but here we are here we are nonetheless Jake knap clearly did not have his game on Sunday and he did a lot to make it happen and win down the stretch like we see Patrick can’t lays
Of the world zando shle of the world feel the Sunday pressure and fold completely Jake NAB almost did but he did enough to win in the end and it was a very impressive win because no one said winning is easy no one said he was gonna be lights out on Sunday under the
PJ tour pressure especially when you haven’t one [ __ ] in your life like Jake nap’s not a wasn’t a prolific winner on the corn fairy tour or anything he came out and did exactly what he had to do fought his swing got up and down on the
Whole back nine like I was wasn’t a bad beep Sammy valaki we we almost had him but jnap did get lucky a few times but you have to get lucky to win you simply have to some of them were a bit egregious though that drive on number two yesterday I don’t
That was duck hook scorching into the woods and popped right out easy shot at par I don’t know how I don’t know how that didn’t go out of bounds if I’m being honest and the drive on number 14 the par five sliced right and sliced right hit the ground and bounced left to
The tree defied physics if that bounced right like it was slicing it would have been a layup a punch out left and he would have made par instead of making a tap in birdie but those are the breaks you need to get when you win and he did
Enough to win so perhaps to Jake nap you got it done now let’s get into the Honda cognizant DFS slate I already went to the top Rory down to Tom Kim and there’s definitely questions to be posed and questions to be made in this range because we know who’s going to be chalky
We know who is not going to be chalky I think there’s definitely multiple Avenues and we’ll go through all these guys and I’ll tell you their path for success and what I think you should do so Rory makoy at the top coming off of two straight events in which he lost
Strokes on approach didn’t really play great golf but he got a week off he’s has a home game this week he sleeping at his sleeping in his bed probably got with his coach over the past week and a half and look he’s [ __ ] ru M no one
Will be surprised if he comes out of the Gat strong and fixes the iron play but he has a mixed bag of results here he has a win he has a second place finish he has some Mis cuts too so Rory M makes a ton of sense and I but I don’t think
He will be owned this is a DFS show I don’t think he will be owned as much as he should be at least because of the recent results and he’s over like $1,500 more than anyone else so I think he’s going he’d be a good he’s a good play I
Think he’s safe to make the cut I think he’s safe to have a top three finish top five finish so it’s a question I think if he sub 18% you can go you can go do the Roy thing but chalk at cognizant chalk at PGA National is tough chalk at
PGA National is a recipe for disaster because doesn’t matter how good of a golfer you are there is Danger on every single hole every single golfer in this field every single week will have a few bad swings it’s [ __ ] golf it happens but it’s a matter of how you where you
Miss it obviously it’s a matter of not being in the water which every other golf course in the world doesn’t have as much water as we see at PJ Nationals so there is if the chalky guys might eject on Thursday morning it’s just how it
Goes this luck of the draw I would say this is a massive week to avoid chalk but there might be some you want to hit and some of the chalk you might want to hit is Russell Henley at 10,200 this is a guy who’s made eight of
His last nine cuts at PJ National one here here runner up here great finishes T4 at Sony last uh this P few weeks ago runner up at Sony winner at Sony I mentioned that because Bermuda course Precision off the te very similar crossover from Wy to PJ National and
He’s G to be chalky but is Russell Henley safe chalk it’s hard to say that he is but he might just be because he’s just so consistent every single time here and he gives you that Fairway green t putut great on Bermuda can get hot can
Punch a six or seven under round so I don’t I’m if I’m going to play chalky guys I think Russell Hunley is the only one I can consider contrarian play I’ll go back up to the top Matt I mean Cameron young I love Cameron young in
DFS this week he’s gonna be lower owned but I see the path for him shooting four rounds of 68 it’s a par 71 by the way no more par 70 four rounds of 68 finishing 12 under finishing t7 to cash in a lot of your lineups I his off the te game
Over the last few weeks has been absurd and not that PJ National is a course where you can drive the ball a million yards and it’s a driver heavy go it’s not but he’s going to be starting on another level off the te he’s going to
Be longer in the Fairway and in he’s been so long and so straight so consistently I’m not saying cam Young’s gonna win the golf tournament I’m saying he’s going to be probably sub 133% and gives you that great Equity from the AL the T part of it so it’s DFS
Gamee I think he’s going to be low owned and I think he has great high-end finishing so Matt Fitzpatrick kind of a weird I was very high on Matt Fitzpatrick at Riviera and he missed the cut no one could have predicted Matt fit Matt Fitzpatrick missing the cut at
Riviera but that’s now a few straight weeks of Matt Fitzpatrick hitting the ball really really re really poorly which is it is a concern it truthfully is a concern but look you’re getting meitz Patrick in difficult conditions he’s one of the most talented golfers in
The world I would not be surprised if he bounced back but I’ve now bet him in two straight events Phoenix and at Riviera I don’t know if I can go back to a third time and I’m gonna say the same thing about DFS I don’t know if I love that so
Tom came at 10,100 is I was I mean a bit overpriced I mean not really overpriced because look at the field 10,100 on a great a course that makes a ton of sense for him even though he has no course history here very accurate off the te
Solid uh going into to the greens on his iron shots the putter is Hit or Miss but his best results have been on Bermuda and that’s what we’re getting here no real feelings on Tom Kim I’m going to R rank my top 10 or not my top five in
This range I’m really high on Rory M I think he will do well then I’m gonna go down to Russell Henley number two cam young number three but I think he’s a great contrarian Target then I’ll go Tom uh Matt Fitz Patrick mat Fitz Patrick
Tom came as a coin flip for me but I here to make takes I can’t say I don’t like either of them I will go with Matt Fitzpatrick as the fourth ranked player in this group Tom Kim the fifth just because I like Matt Fitzpatrick at a
Macro level more than I like Tom Kim so let’s get into this this 9k range but um 9k Range let me move my screen down let’s do that hold on see sometimes when I move the screen around it doesn’t go okay 9k range good old Eric Cole down to
Keith Mitchell so Eric Cole the coarse horse for one year a very popular bet this week he’s got no chance he has got no chance every everyone’s betting Eric Cole this guy has cont has mixed has been in contention one time in his one zero NE I spelled it with a zero he
Has been in contention one time in his PGA Tour career yes it was at PGA National but he gained eight Strokes putting can Eric can Eric colean eight Strokes putting sure probably not you don’t want a guy who did it all with the putter in the year before and a guy who doesn’t
Content he is the local he’s the local boy he’s a Del Ray Beach native I get it I get the storylines but how often does that stuff pan out never he’s gonna be Giga chalk throw it away Eric Cole has no chance and at 9900 I do not want to
Do it JT poen also might be a tad shocky but but and I do I do like it his path is going to require him to play out of the Fairway the driver is Hit or Miss but in his few trips here he actually has hit the driver well so
I I’m pretty bullish on J JT Poston from a outright from a DFS perspective I don’t I don’t want to I feel like he’ll be a moderately owned guy but on the with the higher side ownership I like JT Poston it’s going to come down to how he
Drives the ball because he can get scorched Earth with his irons and putter gotta play out of the Fairway though okay sjm very interesting to see sjm at this price point because it’s been bad he is lost Strokes on approach in five five straight events for the first time since
2020 it’s hard to say that’s not concerning even though he comes back to a golf course that he’s won at that he’s finished T10 at multiple times it makes sense obviously sunj M short Bermuda that is his Jam that is what he does best on but you can’t say that it’s not
A concern the iron play so at 97 100 I’m interesting to see what the community is going to do with sjm from an ownership point of view it’s going to be hard for me to get there if it’s chalky but clearly he’s done it on this golf course
Before makes sense but the the the current play is not there I’m going out to the golf course tomorrow Wednesday sunj is on the on the checklist of golfer I need to watch and see how he’s hitting it Min wo Lee at 9600 the Min Willie flowchart so two two questions is
It Lynx yes no if it’s yes he can win if it’s no he cannot win that is the Min mly flow CH flowchart sadly this is not Lynx I can see him in the water a few times this week on his second shot his iron play is abysmal just the golfer he
Is it’s gonna take he’s still young he’s still still young elite elite elite driver elite elite elite around the green and on the greens the iron playe needs to come around not really sure PJ National is the spot unless it turns into a scramble Fest it’s not going to
Though the weather’s going to be all right it’s we’ll play a little bit on the firmer side but uh mini I’m not too bullish on benan going to be very very chalky multiple top five finishes in his career has gained three plus ball striking in every single time he’s been
Here and he’s coming off of an event at the Genesis in which he gained four strokes ball striking in a loaded field so you could argue that uh Ben an is has the best form of his career coming to a golf course where he’s played very well
At Bermuda he’s also puted well on it at least at at least at the PJ National Bermuda not as a whole he not the best Bermuda putter but Benny on tweeted this morning uh everyone was like Benny on week and Ben on tweeted the Michael
Scott gift of him going like not so fast my friend so uh weird that he did that like dude just get off Twitter I don’t know what that means but I just think the chalk alone is going to get me off of uh off of benan
So we’ll move on to Chris Kirk Chris Kirk 9400 uh winner of this event last year I had him at 35 to1 there he is hanging up over my left shoulder but I’m not as bullish as I am on Chris Kirk this year as I was last
Year now obviously he won sentury to start the season last year he didn’t have a win but he had a T3 at AMX and some other great results the ball striking numbers were a lot better last year at least the month before than he than they are this year he’s lost in a
Few straight The Field’s A Little Bit Stronger I’m going to take a backseat to Chris Kirk at a similar number similar price than he was to last year and maybe a little chy Shane Lowry is a PGA Tour regular he plays here like damn near every single year has finished fifth and
Second in the last two years and he’s kind of flashed the iron play has looked all right the last few weeks not substantial amazing Gams but this is a course he knows well a course that he’s played a bunch of times I definitely like Shane Larry at 9300 dbo Daniel
Burger is back to back-to-back fourth place finishes and two years ago Daniel Burger blew a six shot lead on Sunday yes I had him yes I was there yes I got rained on I saw it all one of the worst days of my life but we live and we learn
We move on he heads back to a golf course he’s had great success on and he’s flashed with the irons and flashed with the ball striking in Phoenix and at the farmers so the problem with Burger has the last few weeks has been the chipping and putting he’s back in
Bermuda he’s back to one of his local courses of course that he played a t a bunch of times he should feel a lot more comfortable on and around the greens I’m not sure how that will hold up for 72 holes but I think he’s a great DFS play
Like we don’t need him to win the event we can he could definitely finish inside the top 10 and still Chip and Putt average to poorly but he should feel more comfortable I do like Eric Co at 9100 Cory Connors provides a very safe floor I think Fairway green two put
But it’s comical how bad the the short game has been like we know Cory Connors is a bad chipper and putter but it’s like at a career low I was just did a podcast with my friend him and he posed the question like does he practice it’s
Bad it is really bad so I’m I’m out on Cory Conor Keith Mitchell will probably probably be chalk at 9k and he finished 19th in at Mexico 17th at Phoenix he has hit his irons as well has he as well as he has in his entire career these last four
Weeks I don’t love Keith Mitchell when he gets chalky I don’t love look I just see Keith Mitchell disappointing again because he disappointed everyone at Mexico it was three over through three to start the week and he never he couldn’t recover from that in in an
Event where you got to go to like 19 under like it’s tough to recover from he tried to make a charge but he was never in the mix like he was never contending last week um he had that like really hot start on Saturday and I tweeted Keith
Mitchell chinina back door top 15 finish to boast his case for PJ National next week of course that he won that he’s doing he’s doing that exact thing I’m going to take the backseat to kiss Mitchell I think he’ll let you down again I could see him as one of the
Chalky guys that missed the cut so let’s get into this 8K range but before I want to talk to you about Underdog fantasy Underdog fantasy is a great way to play alongside your favorite players PGA NHL College anything you want Underdog fantasy you can win a 100 times your
Money on the plays uh you need choose higher or lower on a player stats and you go from there put them put them together and you can load up if you follow me on Twitter I’ve been releasing Underdog plays every single not every single day but uh most rounds so follow
Me on Twitter for some Underdog plays and yeah we will get into that when we get into that so let me put my screen down just a tad and get into this 8K range if it will work there we go 8K range big Den McCarthy down to Justin
Rose so let’s get into this range Denny McCarthy you can’t see him on the screen but he’s $8,900 it’s hard to argue that this course does not make a ton of sense for yny McCarthy he missed the cut here last year 30th in 2022 but a third place finish in 2021
Just think just think not overly long Bermuda hit some wedges avoid bogie just play safe golf sounds like Denny McCarthy to me but a chalky Danny doesn’t always work out I don’t know if he will he will be chalky though because he’s not making a ton of
Noise but IR play has been either boom or bust he’s had some small games with the irons and that’s the that’s the thing that throws his game off is the iron play the driving accuracy solid the wedge plays good the iron plays really hit or miss but he’s had some Gams with
The iron play so and we know the Putter and short game is going to be great with big Den so I do like him Jagger 8800 flashed again in Mexico a T3 that’s his third T3 in three starts yeah because he finished third at the farmers he
Finished 14th here in 2023 and I love Jagger and DFS every single week he’s always moderately owned to chalky but just comes through and he has so many paths to success like Jagger can get off to a first round lead shoot Gigalo in round one and then
Have a slow Friday and he gets himself out of the golf tournament but works his way back in to a a steady he’s like in the top five through eight the entire weekend but never In Contention you know what I mean that’s great for DFS or he
Can get off to a slow start like he did in Mexico okay round on Friday good okay round on Saturday great round on Sunday to just a back door T3 and never once have a chance to win the golf tournament that’s fine that’s what joerger does and
DFS as a winning strategy and I love him in DFS every single week he’s not he’s like a a bti Xander Shuley he’s not really in the mix but he’s always there at the end uh and no overwhelming like he’s an amazing driver an amazing putter Alexander shley he’s
Just good across the board good at everything so I like Jagger Matthew Pavone everything in this everything I’m talking about is in the without Matthew Pavone Market he’s clearly winning this event he’s obviously winning FedEx FedEx Cup leader third place first place no I’m joking but Matthew pone is back
After taking three weeks off kind of weird that he took three weeks off because like you win an event who do you think you are like you’re just taking all these events off and you can play when you want to all right Matthew pone I call [ __ ] uh one of the highest
Prices he’s been in his career and I just not buying Matthew bone at an absolute ceiling when he’s had a four-week hot run because this guy has been nothing for his entire career in the DP World Tour he was never a prolific winner on the DP World Tour he
Was like a 7K golfer on the DP World Tour I’m not doing it I’m not doing it sep Shaka I love $8,600 throw away those bad results on the west coast sep’s back to Bermuda sep has finished fifth and first the last two years he’s played
This event and both events he came in losing Strokes on approach over the last few weeks over the weeks prior to his wins or win in fifth he’s doing exactly that again he’s not the short he’s hitting the ball fine the short game is bad he he he likes Bermuda he likes
Chipping and putting up Bermuda he’s a Georgia Bulldog sep is a great play at $88,500 Jake knap $8,400 probably will miss the cut uh if he has one of those drives he had on in Mexico on Sunday he’s in the water he is dropping he’s
Making a double and look no beef to Jake knap but he has his spots he will have his spots going forward s theala courses Cam Davis courses not PJ National when there’s a double on every single hole if you’re not hitting the Fairway or hitting the ball where you should sweetb
Hustler no real feelings at $8,300 I can see him making some noise he’s probably gonna go under owned but I I no real feelings on Bo pretty much average I I skipped over Rasmus sard the brother of Nikolai obviously $8,500 not the spot you want to run out r you want to run
Out Rasmus when you could just go bombs away off the tea and a driver putter type course Rasmus will probably be in the water at some point he’s been playing really good in the DP World Tour he hasn’t finished outside the top 16 I believe since like June something crazy
I will actually get a re like an exact number on that Rasmus has not finished outside of the no he has finished on average T14 in 12 straight events that’s crazy consistency like obviously he’s doing things right but of late he’s been doing a lot of it with the putter on the
De a lot like like concerning amount of pots he’s made so this is not the course you want to I want to run out Rasmus but he will definitely be a PJ tour name over the next two years he’s still on the DP World Tour he’s got a special uh
Exemption this week Nikolai is not playing only Rasmus okay who is the next guy I want to talk about Alex norin Alex norin with some great course history Alex norin is a prototypical perfect fit for uh PJ National just the guy who’s just it’s it’s it’s a mental War of Attrition with
Alex norin it’s scramble safe par safe par safe par and then like Saturday comes around he’s t7 I love it he’s probably gonna go under own two $8,200 a great price but Luke Lissa $8,100 seems a bit underpriced he’s missed his last three Cuts here but he finished T2 with the
Genesis and he Som about making putts so if Luke liist is putting we know the ball striking is going to be there Justin Rose at 8K is a full fade for me he’s hitting the ball really poorly and he’s missed a few Cuts in a row here uh
I Justin Rose has had success and he plays this event a lot but he missed a cut in 2020 that was the last time he played and he’s not hitting the ball as good as he was hitting it last year going into Pebble Tom sevenk range Tom
Hogi a absolutely great case study for Tom hogi he has horrific course history missed his last three Cuts but the recent form and the recent ball striking has been insane eighth at the Genesis 17th at the at Phoenix six at Pebble and he has let’s see this in the entire field only two
Guys have been hitting the ball better than Tom hogi over the last 36 rounds and one of them has doesn’t have enough sample size to even quantify so it’s second the other name is Alexander Bor who I also like here but Tom hogi is hitting the his iron so well and he’s
Going to get a bunch of uh wedges and middle irons like he loves so I love Tom hogi at the 7K price point let me put my screen down a little more so we can talk through more guys in this range I’m not going to go through every guy in the 7K
Range I did just go through every guy 8K plus so you can thank me for that um Taylor pendrith what a disappointing week in Mexico and that’s just that’s on you guys you cannot trust Taylor pendrith when he’s shocky but you cannot trust Taylor pendri on courses that make
Sense for him like Taylor goes to Mexico bombs away lean on to hit the driver as long as you want because you’re one of the longer hitters misses the [ __ ] cut like unserious golfer truly unserious golfer um Thor Olsen honestly an impressive start for thorb in Mexico
What did he finish he ended up finishing 46 but he was he had a great round one and that was his first PJ tour start of the year and first P tour start in a while no course history here I have zero feelings on him I’m wondering what what
Like if he’ll he’ll be like 3% own 4% own Brendan Todd is an interesting one too because he’s got poor course history but he’s a go for that makes sense like hit the ball in the Fairway get hot with the putter like that’s what Brandon Todd
Does well uh the forms all right I think I’d rather play Adam senson Adam senson last year was so chalky he was one of the chalkier players but he finished uh he has never missed a cut and he’s starting the trend so makes sense he’s played well here and he’s playing well
Right now so if Adam if Adam fenman was really chalky last year didn’t work out for you and you played him go right back to him so Christian baz another guy $7,600 it makes sense for Christian baz new Bermuda is his best surface very safe
Floor off the T very safe floor with his iron he’s gonna hit a lot of greens can he get hot with the putter I’m hearing a bit much a bit a lot of Christian bz noise over the last 24 hours which is a little bit odd to be
Hon Ricky Fowler 7500 unserious golfer but he’s won here before like I don’t what do we I could see Ricky like first round leader I like I could see it that’s under consideration Ryan fox $7,400 mix the miss the cut in Mexico and I did like
Him there but I think this is a better course for Ryan Fox gives you that complete game uh suits suits him a little bit more suits him a little bit better than Mexico Mexico’s just bombs away I I I like Ryan Fox last week but I
Like him a lot more this week Rio hisatsune 7300 this C he’s made four out of his five PJ tour starts in 20124 and heads to a course that almost Rivals the course that he won on in France 14 under one there 14 under one
Here last year a ton of water a ton of middle middle irons a ton of bogey avoidance Rio Heat zun it’s a name to look out for and a name who can definitely light it up all right let’s go down a little bit further um Adam shank is starting to he plays
Well in uh in Florida at least he did last year and he’s coming into Florida in very similar form than he did last year um Lucas Glover continues this is a Glover course this is definitely a Glover course and he’s given you a great price $7,100 Mt mcney for some reason had the
Best iron week of his career at PGA National I believe it was two years ago and he’s kind of playing all right now don’t hate it Doug gim trending Doug gim is playing really good golf and this is a golf course that makes a lot of a lot
Of sense for him uh Doug gim is trending for his inevitable win at TPC s grass because he’s already won it twice in his career all right all right all right 6K range Thomas dri go to wait Thomas D was like 11 is this the craziest price drop in in
Golf DFS history Thomas dietry was 10,100 last week he’s $6,900 this week that will be tweeted after the show that’s hilarious and it makes sense Thomas dietre was doing so much good work with his Putter and driver and he was squandering Strokes on approach so I’m out on Thomas dietry I
Love Thomas diet Thomas T is the thumbnail and look at his face and look at my face we look kind of similar so he’s he’s my guy but I don’t see it this week for Good Old Tommy de and yeah he’s in a 6K range oxer Tia is also at the
Same price and he will be fairly chalky Davis Thompson first round leader guy potentially shot a round of 64 or 65 in Mexico surrounded by three rounds of 70 or 71 so he’s a guy who could pop in around I do like it hopefully it’s in
One of the earlier rounds so he will make the cut um Ben Griffin anytime you get short Bermuda Ben Griffin is alive he is live every single one of his top 10 Stars has came on that style of golf course so I’m down for Ben Griff Justin
S finished T5 last year and has been so hit or miss with the irons it’s like plus five or minus8 and like no between gives you that uh Equity missed the cut last week maybe a bounceback week but I don’t love the course f for Justina I
Thought it would be better last week and he did not do too well I already gave the Samy valaki thing I was on him last week at 120 to1 and he did not pan out I do like Bob Mack at $6,500 even before he flashed last week
At the Mexico open I like National for Bob Bob McIntyre because he’s a difficult conditions guy the T green game has been really bad the Ping has just been awful and a week before last week he met with Brad Faxon worked on his putting and he finishes T8 so
Hopefully Bob Mack can parlay those finishes into another one this week because I think he can make some noise I already talked about Alexander Bor I think he’s another great play at $6,500 and yeah I’m not going to go crazy in this 6K range Mike Kim $6,400 has no
Chance says he’s not comfortable with this driver and if you’re not comfortable with your driver around PJ National you will end up in the water we have more 5K plays this week um wow wow anyone down here just catching my eye Victor Perez man he made the cut last
Week it could be Hima okay I’m not going to Deep dive this range crazy because we have an entire 6K bit show coming up on tomorrow afternoon so that is almost every single name from like seven 7K up I hope you guys enjoyed that that was
Quick 30 minutes on the DFS preview for this week I will be back tomorrow with a bunch of content I will be boots on ground PJ National Thursday no tomorrow through I don’t know when I’m going to be there shout out Mondo Angel Lucia in the in the chat about Aaron battley he’s
Just the guy who makes putts like I’m down I’m down yeah um okay so yeah you guys know where to find me DM me on Twitter any questions but I will be boots on ground tomorrow through Friday we’re going to get eyes on golfers anyone you want me to check out text me
DM me I will get eyes on them um yep just uh rewind the show if you miss Hey listen rewind the show rewind the show it’s it’s it’s it’s up it’s up for a reason uh talk to you guys soon catch you guys soon catch you guys tomorrow peace out
