Noonan (@RyNoonan) and Ron (@PGASplits101) take a look at the opening odds at Bay Hill and preview the course through the Rabbit Hole.
All right good morning everyone welcome back to bets SPS golf here for while we have live golf but we’re also here for the 2024 API the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill while we uh sweat the end of the cognizant classic here joining me as always PGA Sports 101 Ron Claus what’s
Going on buddy hey doing well um I’ve got a recording right now so I haven’t seen anything yet this morning so um I’m sure I’m sure when I play it I’ll wake up to or I’ll see Shane Lowry you know just doing what he does sometimes but
Um yeah moving on to PJ National here so or um Bay Hill very similar course to PJ National in fact you know really tough ball striking course so yeah got another really small field in a signature event so interesting to see how another one of these plays
Out bro and I both had pre-tournament outrights on Lowry and uh you know obviously you feel pretty good when uh you know David skins is involved late and again this is probably one of the better courses for like as we said last week in the show live ads late ads all
Those things because the nature of the course volatility of the course the water and all that this can bring um Austin nekro is a guy that I was the window on Austin ecro relentlessly uh late last summer and to you know maybe have that uh picked off by by ecro here
We’ll see I mean van royan went absolutely berserk before things got shut down on Sunday minw Le is out there doing min things right now uh which is very interesting you know ecro is uh kind of cruising as we record now but yeah Low’s not dead Low’s not doing well
So we’ll hold on Hope and then move on to uh API yeah as Ron said there as we kind of have here we have these Signature Events this year which are bringing in small Fields this is a 69 man field uh we do have a cut which is
Interesting it’s similar to what we had a couple weeks back over at uh at Riv at the Genesis we have 69 top 50 in ties make the weekend and then it’s also with the players within 10 Strokes because so theoretically we have a cut we might not
Have many I think we had more than maybe expected at the Genesis but again this is a I think a little bit more of a daunting task it is like U what we thought old PGA National was maybe on steroids a little bit there’s a lot of
Water in play not as many holes uh but there is there’s danger in a lot of spots uh you know we’ve had some pretty strong course history here Ron we’ve also had some like guys that have flirted with the top of the board that end up kind of breaking in here a little
Bit too so I guess kind of talk to me about Bay Hill and uh what we need to be looking at this week yeah so it’s a classical Florida style Golf Course characterized you know by length um you know Bermuda grass all Bermuda everywhere um thick rough um and
Actually um uh I think going back yeah this you know sometimes you I get confused fed with all the different rough surfaces but this is pure Bermuda rough um and yeah so typically firm and fast greens but again we we thought it was going to be pretty firm here at PJ
National obviously the rain had a lot to do with how soft it is and how much you know scoring is down uh but yeah it’s another course where you got a lot of bunkers water hazards uh windy conditions typically do play a factor here uh five of the last six winners
Have finished 12 under or worse uh so and yeah similar to kind of the last two events the era PJ national uh par is is pretty much an acceptable score and obviously I say that you know PJ National did not play like that this week for the most part um but it’s it’s
Another ball striking test you know third most difficult to gain approach it’s the fifth most difficult course to gain off the te uh and so yeah typically you know plays like a major uh and um uh so Justin Rose I I was just reading this
Quote before we came on and uh he kind of summed it up pretty good he said there’s no way to fake it around Bay Hill the rough’s pretty thick the greens are quite firm which require pinpoint iron shots there’s enough trouble out there that mentally it’s a challenge you
Have to commit to your shots so yeah getting as we approach the Masters here you know this will be a good kind of test to kind of see where everyone’s at uh kind of here you know in in March yeah next two right we got uh API and
And players on deck which is a I think a great test you have some notes on your uh preview which should be coming up on the site shortly around some of the changes some of the um you know specific course changes that have been done in the last handful of years I think
There’s a major Renault I say 18 or 19 that I think changed some things in terms of like you know U new uh you know new guy in charge of the layout and stuff that’s that’s changed stuff so go be cautious going too far back in terms
Of some course history and you’ve had the rough grown out a little bit and then you’ve had some different like shaved runoffs around hazards that have made it easier to like you know roll into the water roll into a bunker um but I know that like you know I make
A good point too with like Rory complaining about what’s going on with the Rough Around The Greens too you don’t have the shaved runoffs as much anymore that’s something you can look at in the rabbit hole around like you know rough length around the green uh being
Longer versus shorter stuff um how does that kind of play into handicapping this week yeah so Beal used to have you know really these really tight light areas around the greens and players would hate it and now the rough’s more grown out it’s taken the place of it’s more grown out around
The areas where it used to be you know really short and so yeah I think it just depends on which players are you know better you know chipping from rough and you know when you look at um around the green here scrambling From the Rough is
The third most difficult on tour now so it kind of used to be flip-flo it used to be really difficult from the Short Grass uh but they they made this change a couple years ago and uh so yeah my article gets into kind of those changes
And how it affected last year and so even a guy like Victor havind you you can see this you know his first three trips here you know he was like 40th 49th 42nd you know cuz he he he tends to he always tended to do a little better
And thicker rough around the greens and so you look the last two years he’s been second and he’s been 10th so you know who knows if that’s you know coincidental or whatnot but you know I just I think it does especially on the rabbit hole where you could look at
Scrambling From the Rough and look at that from a difficult filter yeah no I think that’s an interesting point because again as you mentioned forid fast greens hard holds some of these are you know longer approach buckets in terms of like where we’re coming from
This week there’s a lot of you know 200 plus and some longer stuff those are obviously by Nature harder to hold the Green in that so you are going to have to scramble a little bit here for sure on these fast beruna greens so definitely going to be interesting to
Take a look at let’s look at the opening odds board here uh with our friends over on FanDuel you have some uh some books are out some books are a little slow to deliver based off of uh you know look what’s going on still we have golf still
Going on uh as we said at the cognizant there at PJ National but do Scotty and Rory at the top which makes sense and as you’ve got into here course history for the both fairly strong uh which makes a ton of sense Rory in particular has been
Uh really strong here over the years havin uh at 12 Xander here at 14 kley 16 um ludig actually played here last year uh in this event t24 he is opened at 20 uh spe with again you get a spot where stroke again around the green matters
Some of the stuff that Jordan can pull off around the green uh interesting little run here last year he’s at 20 morawa at 20 Burns Bermuda burns on 22 uh JT at 22 Max at 22 uh then you get you know little tier drop as you get
Into Tommy zal uh and Fitz who’s also had a pretty nice little career here as well knocking on the door so again we get into this spot where 69 people basically a minimal no cut event type of stuff like this is this is where we’re at in the landscape of golf outright
Betting uh in 2024 with war rat you gotta pay the piper at the top of the board somewhere probably uh I think I might tail something that I saw I think you had some success with a couple weeks ago maybe just kind of wait early and
See how the board shakes out see what happens in terms of you know who’s getting bet on and see if there’s anyone can drift a little bit uh these are fairly short I think some of the best early Monday action might be down the board but uh yeah this is a again this
Is kind of where we’re at we’re having to pay basically 25 and shorter for about 15 to 20 guys which is a little bit tough so ini take the top yeah I was going to say I think the I think the books events like this they like to throw everybody
Together and just kind of see you know who bites on who and so I think weeks like this you know I used to I used to jump early but like when you have so many guys like I mean it’s like what 10 12 guys bunched up you know between up
To 22 you know I think it’s smarter just to kind of see where it all plays out as we go on here you know the next day or so um and yeah just interesting because you know it was a signature event last year so you had 120 golfers so still
Pretty huge difference like 50 more golfers but then you know we had Kirk kyama at 200 to one you know kind of come out of nowhere and um you know it was only 9 under last year so another tough event uh but but pretty much you
Know we’re seeing at least in the recent years you know going back to Rory and then you know turl Hatton Bryson Scotty so we’ve we’ve had pretty pretty strong favorites um you know being in control here recently yeah and then like I said a lot of guys that have had success
Where they got into the top 15 top 20 or so um and then eventually close so that’s also something too just looking at it’s probably a little bit more course history sticky than uh than some other events so definitely worth taking a look at I want to jump into uh the
Rabbit hole real quick and uh you’ll play around with some of the unique abilities to model some of the statistics here this week if you’re not familiar uh check that out if you want to get access to what we’re doing at betsports golf you want Ron’s preview
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Soon so you want to lock in some of these prices as soon as you can you can reach out to us directly at bsps golf all right Ron let’s play around uh and again I think this is a spot where we have some unique stuff we played around
Last last week with some Strokes gained Florida specific stuff um Strokes gained high water damage some of the things I thought were you know pretty unique less than driver was something we played with last week too uh you know you could see here defaulting to you know just looking
At the last 12 months Strokes gain total this is the top of the board and these are the guys that we’re all looking at that are uh single digits or you know sub20 in the outright board uh what are some unique ways we could look into chopping up some data this week that
Could maybe lead us into a good spot just going back to what you said a few minutes ago so yeah the course history here is the fourth most predictive on tour so you know um one thing that you can do really easy is you know just go to the courses and select
Bay Hill take it all the way back to you know uh 2016 and you know that’s one way to look at one of the tweets I posted yesterday just showing some of that early course history um but but yeah so you can get into um definitely Strokes
Gain Florida uh you know when you have our region feature um another way you could do that if you if you know there have been different courses played um you know throughout the season over the years on Florida but if you just want to narrow down a different way to just the
Florida swing which we’re in right now you have this these four courses that you know get played every year um you know you can look at that um in the event season for the filter so that’s something you know I’ll definitely be doing um this whole time period that
We’re in um and yeah and then just you know you know two good ones again going back to last last week you know even though the the conditions ended up not being difficult at PJ National I think this week um you know difficult very difficult conditions is a good filter
Along with um you know very strong field strength so those two are going to be important this week and there’s a few more we’ll get into here but I’ll let you let you get into these I like it so I’ll go with the Florida event season one that you suggested here just looking
At the top of the board uh you’re getting a pretty decent sample for these guys and again I backed out over the last three years you can obviously go back to five if you would like but we’re getting you know 28 30 rounds for uh most of the the field
Here which I think is is a good enough story to be told interesting uh you know Justin Thomas looks like he’s doing his best Scotty sheffler impersonation here struggling on the greens but Tia green has been pretty Immaculate uh but your top 10 here is JT Victor hin Keegan
Bradley Scotty Sheffer Max hom Shane Lowry uh Cory Connors Chris Kirk Matthew Fitzpatrick and Jordan Speed which makes a ton of sense let’s just throw this in here we’ll throw it in uh to build a model just to show some folks uh we’ll go event season Florida you don’t have to put
Anything in here if you’re building a model or watching this for the first time this is something for yourself to make a note all you need to do is just hit that add button and add it to your model or your mixed condition to model it’ll be in here when we click this
Green button at the top so we’re just kind of banking things for now you can see I have a condition this little red dot denotes that I have this here but again you want to make sure you turn that filter off before you start to slice and dice the rest of the data
Because I’ll you’ll start to get yourself into a very very narrow sample size but uh what else do you want to do you want to do some stuff around uh scoring conditions being difficult or um field strength or something like that you said yeah yeah difficult um and again um
If you select just to get a water range of samples go difficult and very difficult for both of those um so that’s another one to add and and yeah and there there there’s some events where you could add them together but I I always prefer to do it separately just
To uh keep keep it get give you more sample size that way yeah you you start to get real small sample and you get kind of double counting too because if you go like you know difficult field strength and uh you know very difficult in difficult scoring conditions it gets
A little bit tougher but uh you see here last two years again even a better sample size really other than zotor who were at 2 six rounds uh you know you’re getting a pretty good sample size if you wanted to put a minimum round feature
You can go into this box here and kind of uh you know just filter out some of the noise if you were to get someone to say you know four rounds or something like that that you didn’t want to capture would throw off kind of the data
Point you could put the minimum round feature in and then it will recalculate the actual um you know rankings here which I think is is useful so uh so yeah we’ll do strokes in here total on difficult very difficult scoring conditions interesting to see just look
At um you know who’s putting well in those conditions Sam Burns again your best Putters uh Keegan being at the top here is is pretty interesting um off the tea around the green again we can get into some of the stuff that’s specific for that but I think Strokes gain total
Is another thing that’s worth popping in there for a little bit we’ll clear these and uh what should we do next let’s see you want to do something around the uh course length field strength what do you think yeah there there’s a bunch of we so definitely length is long um and so
That’s one um you could even do if you get you know we even have a vent type where you can go with no Cuts since I mean it is a there is a cut event um but you know this one when you have such a small field so yeah probably small field
Would be a better one uh the no cut um yeah so we have bunker a bunker number um it’s got the 11th most bunkers here at bill on tour and uh eight water danger holes so this is a course where you could um obviously kind of look at
Both of those uh but other some other interesting ones obviously you know we have greens uh with Bermuda rough Bermuda uh one thing I’m using this week for sure is rough penalty uh being high okay so if you go down a little further there when we get to the rough now it is
It is so 3inch rough um but so yeah this is this is a course that really penalizes you good missing Fairways so yeah and this is one where you could look at off the tea if you just want to look at how players perform off the tea you could look in general
And look you know Strokes gain total um so that’s a good one and then yeah um even gaining on approach kind of like we did with this week approach and off the te being difficult so you could you know select difficult very difficult um even sometimes I’ll even go average just to
Wind it out just to eliminate those easy courses so that’s another angle you could take as well I like that too you know you can grab those same thing with maybe with the course length where you mess around with some of these you just by putting average long and very long
You’re just kind of filtering out some of the shorter courses which I think is a is a good way to do it there are a lot this week I think that you can go down and I think it is you can choose the attitud model or I think it’s you know
You can at least take a look at it to see if there’s something there it’s confirmation bias on someone you’re looking at or anything like that I think there are a number of ways that Ron just highlighted that we need to be looking at this week we talked about you know we
Have firm and fast Bermuda greens so you can you know you can literally click permuda fast firm um you know how much are you narrowing down you know Ming around we’re talking about Bermuda all over the place so the rough is Bermuda rough length you want to have long rough
Difficult you know rough penalty being High um again play around with stuff see what the filtering is see what the sample size is there are a lot of ways to do it gaining approach is hard we talked about scrambling From the Rough um you that we have that could be a
Little bit difficult this week too so yeah take a look at a bunch of these things we’ll go just with this right now rough penalty High because I think that that matters a ton this week see we’re at maybe from an approach standpoint too
Uh you see Scotty again I like to see B this actually tell us a little bit based off of previous leaderboards I think that that’s really interesting too ball striking here and that’s these are some familiar names uh just for the sake of it we’ll just you know we’ll add total
Just so we can show folks here uh then we’ll maybe do something from a again we’re in Strokes gains but you can get into all the other views here that you could possibly imagine if you wanted to look specifically at approach want to look specifically uh at you know putting
Let’s look at let’s I want to do something with with the floor ceiling here with putting and we’ll uh we’ll go from there if I can get uh this to stop spinning it’s probably on me and on on the rabbit hole to be honest all right
Um let’s look at fast I want to look at the floor ceiling stuff and let’s look at the fast and firm Bermuda greens let’s see what we get here let’s see if we can get something let’s see what our sample size is and we’ll see if we can back out here
All right so we got to go last two years let’s see what we got maybe 15 20 rounds nope we’re not getting much so these are basically our Bay Hill rounds yeah all right so we yeah so that’s kind of double counting the uh the Bay Hill stuff so we’ll go
Bas per munic greens last three years this is good uh let’s look at the floor ceiling let’s look who’s putting uh um let’s go we’ll go Strokes gain total at first uh all right ludvig pretty small sample but is uh gaining Strokes total in you know nine out of 10 Rounds Rory
Doing his magic as well Fitz Rose kley it’s an interesting one but let’s see who’s putting well on these fast Bermuda greens here all right Nick Dunlap so this is another spot where you’d want to you know get like a a minimum round filter in kind of catch these guys here uh
Ricky struggling this is interesting to see too the bottom of it uh Ricky struggling on Fast Bermuda greens though maybe a spike putting week came in here uh Benny Anne Mora Kawa Luke list Scotty not surprising though he’s you know won here which is interesting to see but
Who’s doing well who’s uh who can putt on these Harris English Harris English played well in the past I believe top five here last year second maybe uh so that’s interesting to see Xander Tom Kim Rory Mackenzie Hughes against some good Putters which I think is uh interesting
Here too so this is a floor ceiling we talk about this a lot like Spike putting weeks spiked weeks on approach ball striking this actually puts numbers to what that that actually means who actually is showing up and gaining uh in this instance you know more than you
Know 01 all the way up to five Strokes in a particular Strokes gain category which I think is is really super interesting to see I think tells a good story so how are you handling uh you know pting splits and stuff like that this week yeah I’ll I’ll definitely uh pretty much
Weigh Bermuda you know because that is one of the more unique surfaces on tour um but yeah like you said you know I’ll I’ll take a split with fast um you know fast greens um and you know I think you know being able to incorporate you know
What we we’re going to have it in the future where you can actually add you know the rankings to you know floor sething into a model itself um but yeah I think in general it really pays to look at you know weeks like this especially where you’re looking for the
Smallest things you know that could separate a guy you know to see you know who who could who may be a great ball Striker maybe a weak Potter like a Keegan Bradley who maybe spikes you know on these types of greens so I think it’s
Very beneficial to to dig in and look at that yep yeah it’s definitely uh I think it tells a story here I think more than uh more than some other weeks how are you going to approach off the tea this week uh you know there’s again we have a
A number of filters this will be the last one that we do um there’s I think a lot of different ways to do it this this week um distance does matter I think good drive percentage matters a little bit like we looked last year we did have
Some guys with some length at the top of the board but I don’t think that’s always necessarily been the case um you know how do you want to approach off the te yeah for me it’s this is a total driving week um you know so this is a
Unique stat that we have where you know it combines equally accuracy and distance off the te into kind of one stat um and so you know with the length of the course you know if you also think you know Bay Hill is is you know Orlando area so you know they’ve been getting
Hit with a lot of the same Rin so condition is going to be soft um Carry distance is probably another good week for that um now this is a course where you know there’re are it’s kind of a mix so in the filters it’s not less than
Driver it’s not driver heavy it’s a pretty pretty decent mix off the te um so yeah it’s just it’s one where I’m going to use a lot of different ones and even going back to the the High rough penalty um I’ll have that filter and I’ll look specifically off the tea how
Players have performed um and and just like we said earlier um Strokes gain with it difficult to gain off the te I’ll look at that one as well yeah let’s put this back on and see rough penalty High Strokes gained off the te we’re looking at the last 12
Months um you know decent size sample not a lot for ludig in particular but we saw he was at the top at a very large sample of total driving he remains there uh with his minimal rounds but for the sake of it again I think everything
We’ve popped so far said Rory the these are all these are all the best drivers on the tour right here yeah again and I think that matters right that’s kind of something we’re trying to and you and you could even and this is something I’d like to when I do
It I I’ll expand it out to three years sometimes even five years just to get like a long-term view as well and I I wouldn’t expect it to change much the list U but that just gives you maybe a little more historical perspective as well so yep some of the same guys uh
Scotty bumps up ahe of Rory there which is uh which is interesting too so but uh yeah I mean it’s kind of those two it’s a decision like yes or no on those guys this week and see if anyone else in the top of the odds board around you know
The 20 or shoulder number drifts a little bit and see if there’s some value there but otherwise it you know I get why it’s hard for folks to go seven eight to one on an outright um you know it just it just is those are either expensive tickets depending on how you
Do it it’s either an expensive ticket or obviously a shorter win uh a little harder to do but these guys are going to be coming out the top of pretty much anything you’re doing in here this week so um yeah as you can see if you’re
Seeing this for the first time there are a lot of ways to slice and dice this data uh again it is very very simple to use you can uh download any of these things into a CSV as well like we said we gave you number of ways for you to go
And look at some certain things in these filter by condition section that that matter this week specifically at Bay Hill so I’d be careful make sure you’re looking at your sample sizes you’re not getting too too small uh and make sure that you’re you I think telling a better
Story of how to kind of land and building your beding card building your player pool for DFS all those things I think uh are super duper important this week we just kind of touched on a few of the views but you can see in that drop
Down menu as well there are a lot of different ways for you to go in and to uh mess around with stuff let’s just see what we did here and see what that spit out for us uh I think we maybe have four things in here again you’ll be able to
See go back here you can go into this section here as well view expert rankings you’ll be able to see um basically anything anyone here Ron myself uh you know we have a couple other contributors that are uh you know in the content space you’ll be able to
See their save models I think Andy lack probably has his model out there Andy’s pretty early um we don’t have Andy yet but you’ll be able to see some stuff I see Matt venzi as well I can see some other people in the space and see what they’re building right what are some
Stats that maybe you go on and you build one yourself maybe you’re missing some stuff you want to see what wrong put in you want to see what Andy put in you want to see what Matt put in go into their model and look see who’s at the
Top of their model see what stats they put in and you can kind of help uh structure things a little bit differently all right oh yeah no we put five things look at us all right uh we’ll just run it you can see you got to
Give it a name at the top you can mess around with the weights we’re gonna have something here soon that tells you what the weight is make sure you know that you’re heard 100 so you don’t have to do the math in your head this will be Bay
Hill first look uh we’ll just leave it as is for now again you can see here it’s really important I think to put a description for yourself when you get into a bunch of these Strokes gains total situations you can hover over this little icon and it’ll tell you what it
Is like this one was just uh Strokes gains rough penalty being high uh this one here was very difficult uh in in difficult scoring conditions and this one was the event season Florida we will go ahead and save this you can see it it will be you could save all your models
You’re not limited on what you could save here which I think is also pretty useful we can go back and run some like just Evergreen rolling models and and spit those out for every tournament here so Rory comes out at the top which is not super surprising uh Matthew
Fitzpatrick who again is fair fairly well here uh I thought would maybe contend a little bit more uh at uh cognizant did not havin as you mentioned uh third Tommy fourth Scotty down at fifth again you could see the big glaring red 58 uh and a field of 69 for
His putting which is not going very well uh H at six Xander seven Lowry eight uh kentley nine and Keegan 10 uh you could see again some other guys that make a lot of sense in terms of rolling out the top 15 top 20 here as well anything
Surprising to you Ron that jumped out here with what we did again obviously we’ll get more granular and the stuff that we’re doing but uh anything here I mean Tommy Fleetwood has a really really nice course history here you know it’s just he’s just one of those guys
You know where it’s like top 20 sure top 10 probably but yeah it’s just it’s just hard and I think Cameron Young’s almost you know he’s not obviously not a veteran yet but you know it’s like will this be the week you know I probably not but I think he’s a great
Fit for the course um even you know I like Fitzpatrick this week he has a really really good history here and another surprising guy is Chris Kirk you know he’s been playing really well lately and you know you wouldn’t think of him as maybe the best fit here and I
Know he doesn’t pop on this model here but you know his course history here is another one that’s um really good 20th in the model though so I mean he’s not he’s not that that far down uh yeah nice course history said you know again from a finishing position standpoint I
Think that’s uh those are nice bats I mean Kirk’s already won though he’s already won a small field you know event this season so it’s not like you can’t go toe-to-toe with this field and take it down he already did surprise us uh there so again another one that kind of
Jumps out I like to see these uh the big red numbers here at the top is uh you know Eric Cole off the te not great morawa on the greens not great uh that starts to slide as your your top you know Denny 18 here uh it’s the off the
Te stuff isn’t good Cory Connor’s putting not surprising so some of the the outlier statistical things there so yeah again a lot of different ways to go about it again you want to get over to the site check out Ron’s preview it’s going to get you I think is going to
Help you understand you know make a list of different filters different conditions different views you want to go through and kind of you know decide take a look at them then decide do you want to put that in your or not because I think there are a lot of specific
Filtering things this week that I think stand out a little bit so definitely check that out come back on Tuesday for the betting show myself and Andy Moler Wednesday with Ron and Byron uh model Maniac for the DFS show I think they’re doing uh some really good stuff over
There as well so appreciate you hanging out uh hit the Subscribe thumbs up like all those things before you take off uh and again jump in the show notes take advantage of the Vivid picks deal if not hit us up on Twitter uh again we are moving prices up here as we approach
Augusta so if you want to get the short prices now take advantage uh they’re going away uh but again hit us directly up on bat Spurs golf so uh we appreciate it we’ll see you all soon thanks everyone
