THE ROTOBALLER PGA SHOW – The Cognizant (Honda) Classic

Spencer Aguiar, Byron Lindeque and Joe Idone (his home town tournament) preview the 2024 edition of The Cognizant Classic (formeryly Honda Classic) golf tournament with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

You can read RotoBaller’s full coverage of the Cognizant Classic (2024) here with Power Rankings, Course Preview, PGA DFS, and golf betting analysis each week:

https://www.rotoballer.com/pga

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All right Roa Ballers we are back for the Roa baller PJ show three wide like the NASCAR last week looking for a winner which we have two of either side of Spencer this week he took care of things at Pebble for us and we kind of

You know pinch hit on the other side of things here and making the RO to baller people a little happy here with a nice little Jake nap W from me and Joe ion Joe idon at T piix on X how are you doing to I’m doing wonderful today man so it’s

It’s been a long drought For Me Maybe my longest one ever I did not Envision that ending with Jake knap but happy that it did um it’s never easy is it Byron I mean that was as [ __ ] stressful as a final round that I can remember and our

Boy got it done I’m happy about that it’s my hometown event this week so it’s been a great Monday for me your hometown of Palm Springs yeah P right just right down here in Palm Springs we’re going to uh check out the the Honda Classic this

Week that’s what happens when you let a South African take control of a Twitter account and not concentrate when he’s tweeting out but Spencer I sent to you a message okay Jack’s got Jake’s got a four shot lead on one other person that can win this tournament he doesn’t need

To make this more stressful than it is turns out he did but you had yourself a a decent week as well and it was glad to see that you kind of bounced back from the deathbed there yeah last week I missed the show wasn’t feeling great but

It’s nice to be back with you this week Byron and I I think that when you look at our entire Roto baller team from top to bottom like everybody at this point is firing on all cylinders uh Joe and myself have been pretty much dismantling the head-to-head game I mean like both

Of us are at like 65 70% sent on the season there so a lot of success in the head-to-head Market both of you guys had the outright you mentioned the Windam Clark ticket that I hit a couple weeks ago uh things are going very well with

The Roto baller team if you’re not doing so already we hope you consider checking everything out but uh uh very excited to be back Byron yeah happy to have you back Spence I will say that I did enjoy having Joe on the show because I had 48

Of my 1 lineups make it through in the 150 Max which was like something I’ve never had happen before and instantly Nikolai hoard decided to not play good golf over the weekend of which I had a 100 lineups of him and then obson as well just also like the guys I needed

Like the chalky expensive guys I got through they didn’t show up but it’s okay I’ll I’ll do a second show with Joe maybe a little later like a midnight Edition or something and we’ll get ourselves rolling and before we get in yeah go ahead no I was just gonna say I

I mean I think the only negative thing that I could really Point towards for last week is if you look at the Roto baller one and done contest pretty much everybody other than you Byron who had Shan Kim I think everybody else uh had Nikolai hoard so uh it is a dead heat

Almost across the board everybody’s like somewhere between 1.1 to about 1.7 million so it’s a highly hotly contested contest there that we have going on it is tight it is and it’s it’s been fun you know we’ve had some interesting names show up and we’ve had some

Interesting names not show up that we showed up in our articles but has not been ideal you know this has been a weird year for I was listening to Joe you know on preferred lines earlier and it’s it’s like where no one on the PJ

Tour wants to win like no one wants to put their hand up who’s been here for a while and win a goddamn tournament like it’s just been it’s just been like let down after let down from the superstars which is it’s concerning it’s also exciting I don’t I don’t know where my

Mind needs to go with this but it’s it’s something so is the do you think do you think it’s a talent deprivation situation or do you think it’s just a really random like sequence of variation that we’ve seen to start the year Spence I mean I think if we look at the

Players that have won like I was actually doing this exercise earlier today because I I was curious to look to see where I had everybody ranked in my model each one of these contests I think if you look at Chris Kirk pavon Clark my model didn’t like Nick Taylor but there

Were a lot of people on Nick Taylor that week keki Jake knap I I don’t think that that’s that bad of a group of players like maybe there were a handful of those options whether it’s wendam Clark or you know I think pavon was probably too highly priced also like those were not

Golfers that necessarily should have been 100 to1 golfers now I think when you look at the Grayson Murray Nick Dunlap sort of an answer and that just so happened to come the second and third weeks into the year where you really started seeing all of this into the mix

Uh those were a little bit more shocking but I can’t necessarily say that we have gotten like completely out of left field winners here I do think it goes to prove to your point a little bit you lose some talent to live and all of a sudden if

You know the four players at the top of the board that are your your favorites to win don’t come through all of a sudden it opens things up for everybody underneath but I think maybe I’m a little bit different in that mentality where you look at all those names like

Specifically from pavon and on every single one of those golfers to me is a really good player yes they’re really good players maybe you can say outside of Windam Clark and Hideki they’re not Elite though you know we’ve got top 10 golfers in the world that aren’t winning

These tournaments when they should be you know they’re in the mix and they’re just not getting it done so Joe do you have any any random take on that yeah I mean maybe this is like a bit of memory loss for me where I’m misremembering the

Past but I don’t remember the top like and five or six guys being this flawed in many instances in a while like everyone wants to Crown Scotty Sheffer as the number one player and he is right there’s no one you’re going to rank above him but he’s got major

Flaws a major flaw I should say Rory has some flaws right now Victor havin is is in the midst of potentially dealing with like some demons right now with his swing Xander can’t win um Patrick Klay can’t break like 80 on a Sunday like he like there are guys up there John ROM

Has actually blown two big Sundays or the final days of live where he’s not coming through so I don’t remember this even when Rah at the beginning of last year he was felt like he had no flaws right he had won like four events in two months Scotty before that had won four

Events I remember the number one player in the worlds before then where it was whether it was going back to spe or whether it was Dustin Johnson or whether it was was Brooks Kea where it just felt like man this guy can’t do anything wrong right now the top six players in

The world all have big flaws and like what I was mentioning to Ryan is it’s really created what I believe is an opportunity for the guy who like a Sam Burns who’s like 20th in the world like if Sam Burns wins a big event like Bay

Hill or the players there’s not much to stop me from saying he’s like a top five player in the world all of a sudden because I can’t really lump Andra in there I can’t put Klay if a guy hasn’t won in two years how am I going to make

Him a top five player in the world there’s 40 freaking events a season like go win something so that’s the biggest thing for me is I think the rankings are probably correct I don’t know if it’s necessarily Talent deprivation but I do feel like there’s never been the top end

Talented players with this many notable like serious flaws that we can point to in their game yeah I’m I’m rocking the penguin shirt because I’ve got a type I hit guys with mullets that wear penguin original shirts that’s my type I’ve hit now four of those guys in my betting

Career yeah three of them with Cam Smith and one of them with Jake nap and when cam was in the mix when he wasn’t in the mix it was because he was playing terribly but when he was he was just such a Savage you know like his putting

Would just be like Nick Taylor esque in a way I mean not in a way it was you know like that’s just you had these guys that would just take care of business Brooks and majes then you know God where has this been you know we’ve been we’ve

Been they might all be on live like you mentioned like they’re not far it’ll never happen because they can’t get the points and there’s no way to compare them cross events but like cam Rah Brooks DJ Bryson like they aren’t far from being top five players in the world

Right now and if they’re all clicking they’re all [ __ ] Savages on a Sunday and would not be blowing some some of these leads and that’s why it’s like there there the Gap is closing there’s just really not a fair way to equally rate them based on the fields that they

Play in based on the shortened rounds based on the lack of competition at the bottom end of live um it’s just unfortunate I think for both sides that we can’t really like say that DJ after a win is a top five player in the world we

Just can’t we can’t give him that and you just don’t I know it’s that’s the that’s the world we live in right now and it is what it is you know I guess there’s no there’s no need to kind of cry about that anymore we kind of just

Have to deal with it my Rick run good always starts when I’m on the show I don’t know what is going on with this it’s a terrible it’s just like my phone starts playing the most random times it happened with Joe last week I don’t know what the deal is sorry about that

Folks Rick maybe just wants to enter the show one of this week we should invite him get on by there there’s one thing I want to say though like just as like a an excert size test here like I think it’s really interesting to compare because I brought up the winners from

2022 uh I was curious to see some of these name differences here and I think there’s two really big noticeable names that come into the mix so I’ll start at the Tournament of Champions Cameron Smith live golfer now yeah you get Hideki at the Sony you get Hudson

Swafford at the American Express so that’s one of your outlier sort of names there luk list at the Farmers Insurance open Luke list is a better golfer now than he was then Tom Boi won at Pebble Beach Scotty sheffler took down the waste management um I think like that

Sheffler mix is kind of where you’ve lost and then all of a sudden at the Genesis Wen Neeman won so I mean really outside of Scotty it’s Cameron Smith and Neeman are the two best players on that list and now both of those two guys are

Live golfers so I mean I do think we’ve seen slow starts before the one big difference would be that some of these other guys that were that next tier of players or in that top tier of players when you look at a Cameron Smith they’re just not here anymore

Unfortunately yeah there’s less of them to to stumble you know to not stumble across the finish line so and even creating the drama within those finishes like it was cam Smith toe-to-toe with Rah right it was chefer was kind of right there with Hudson Swafford that

Year I believe who won the AMX Luke list wanted a playoff against like will zalatoris when he was like Peak will zalatoris there so like we had the drama even if the big name didn’t necessarily win they were there to make it compelling down the Finish you know what

I mean and that’s kind of what we’ve sort of been missing on Nap versus valami and like these guys is it’s okay to have that guy win but we also want to see him battling Goliath you know that’s part of what makes the story great and

That’s kind of where I felt that sort of lack of pop this year yeah Al goliaths have got arthritis right now like when they have to when they have to like shift and get into the heat of battle their knees are flaring up and they’re like tripping over their ankles and it’s

Not good we need to get them figured out get them into the doctor and rock and roll yeah but um let’s dive into the odds board here to start off with we’ve got some interesting names to start off at the top here with Rory sitting at 7

To1 cam young at 20 to1 and Benny on at 25 to1 on DraftKings and before we get into the odds I want to ask you both the question about Benny an I have a 45 to1 but I don’t want to speak about that because it’s not even the same bet now that it’s

25 to1 so we’ve had this discussion a few times on Yi and you Spen so I’ll go to Joe first and ask like how do you like view a a number shifting that drastically and I know both of you kind of do most of your betting as the week

Unfolds I’m a big believer in kind of nailing the the value because I’m not not the best outright golf like picker in the world so I try and find the best odds early on a Monday how do you kind of approach odds drifting so drastically and kind of into unbal range like with

Benny on this week Joe Adon yeah I think so the first books that will post odds I don’t have access to right so it’s typically like starts with DraftKings or bet 365 and I don’t have it so a lot of those early numbers I miss what I try to

Do um and even if I’m not like writing this down or keeping this in a spreadsheet I try to hone in on the players and doing the article for Roto baller on Sunday about the next week has kind of helped me with this so I’ll try

To hone in on players that I’m looking for and put an imaginary number in my head like the all of last week I’m thinking like if I get a 30 on Eric Cole like I’m gonna take that bet right and then when you see it available you take

It if you miss it and it goes to the point like a Benny on where you missed 20 points wait at that point because what I found this year more than any is at least the outlets that I use are relinquishing some of the hold that they

Have as the week transpires so like you would see in an NFL game or these other games the Sportsbook want to hold more to protect themselves on a Monday like they’re not going to release $100,000 limits on a Monday they want to kind of see where the action plays out and as

You sort of get to Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday evening they tight that Gap a little bit so they’re willing to increase the odds across the board on players that they want action on a good sports book is there to want action they aren’t there to prevent and protect

Themselves against getting Exposed on a big bet the proper Sports books out there want to entice action so they want to throw you a bone so whether it’s an odds boost or whether it’s increasing the odds by 5% in lowering their hold on a particular Market on a Wednesday

Afternoon afternoon I think it’s advantageous at that point to wait and if you had Benny on at a good bet at 25 to1 before the odds sports are out and you you gotta kind of swallow that pill and say you missed it I was gonna bet this number it’s still available so kind

Of making your own numbers in your head or theoretically has sort of helped me with that a little bit I love it Spence what’s your take on that yeah I mean I think Joe said that pretty much exactly spot on like um kind of to pull Both

Worlds into one I I would say that the sharpest movement is what occurs early on that’s the bent on sort of a movement where he goes from 45 into the sub30 I think the drift later in the week is when you get that softening of the hold percentage these Sports books trying to

Increase action and take on some extra liability in some other spots but um no I mean I I think that to be a proper Sports better and I think to find the biggest edges you can this is something to where you need to be very I mean this

Is another one of I guess my like bad dad jokes I’m about to do but you have to be very cognizant of what is going on throughout the week here so like you want to attack the board early to get your value but you also need to stay on

Top of things as we move forward with it so um you know value is the end name of the game here we all want value on the prices we can get so you can get that value early great but there are going to be drifts that occur where numbers

Whether that’s in a matchup or a outright or a placement numbers shift and if you can get some of that Advantage there uh there’s an second opening that comes into play later in the week absolutely and just to sort of touch on that hold some money back like

It’s it’s similar to a position like if you if you have ,000 doll that you want to put into the stock market and you want to go get apple right you should my advice would not be to put all a thousand in right away right because if

That price continues to drop and you end up getting a better number from a sports betting perspective if Stephen jger goes from if you bet it at 40 to1 and on Wednesday it’s 50 to one go back in and try to add some more to that that’s why

You don’t spend your entire unit necessarily upfront unless you love the number because if that number increases then you can sort of make that margin in between at 45 and increase your value on that bet so I always try to hold something back don’t empty your account

On a Monday into these things you shouldn’t be that anyways but if you hold something back if your numbers increase I would always advise to add more even if it’s five 10 bucks add more onto that bet when you get the better odds because if you liked it at 40 you

Should love it at 50 yeah I I love that philosophy too I don’t necessarily adhere it to it as well as you should but hey you know find your thing that works for you and kind of go with that too you know so I think that’s also another lesson and that’s 18 minutes

Into the show we can finally start chatting about some some actual bets as Phoebe squeaks on a toy in the background yeah because why would life be un chaotic in backd down bets headquarters over here but talk to me about Rory boys yes or no kind of we

Don’t have to really tou touch on him all that much if you if you were to I don’t know how to kind of let’s just go from a DFS perspective at 122 will you will you be playing Rory or not go ahead Spence spener I I I always

Like Rory I I think we get a very intriguing situation here where the form in 2024 has been subpar by his standards now you get this price increase at 12,200 where I I’m curious to see where the ownership moves over the next let’s say you know 24 hours here but I’m kind

Of under this mentality that at this $122,200 price tag and there’s going to be a lot of ownership that people are going to want to take in this $9,000 range like the Vons the Eric Kohl’s there there’s a lot of really good names there and there’s a lot of names I like

There but I do think Rory is the best player obviously in this field and I’m curious to see where this ownership ends up because um I think this is a really nice buyback spot for him to where I I don’t know if the public is necessarily going to agree with me on

That he’s interesting man because I think what’s really peculiar in this situation is the ,500 price tag between him and the second golfer in the field and the fact that this golf course he’s easily the best and most talented golfer in the field like there’s no doubt about

That but this course doesn’t suit him that well so it makes you think that he’s not necessarily like the best golfer in the field and I don’t know I’m doing a terrible job of kind of explaining that but it doesn’t seem like he can be Peak Rory in this environment

If that makes any sense I don’t I don’t want to use this argument because I I don’t think that this is necessarily the best thing if to throw out what a sports book is releasing and go for from there but I do think it’s interesting to note so there’s two head-to-head matchups

That are currently out in the space right now I see him against Cameron young I see him against Russell Henley he’s minus 225 against Cameron young he’s minus 200 against Henley now you could make an argument that there’s not value in those numbers you can make an

Argument that maybe you like the other side of it but I think that goes to show where Sports books believe Rory should be so when you get this like $1,500 increase on Rory There’s real rhyme and reason behind why that is occurring right now um I just think the upside

That he possesses compared to everybody else is in a different Stratosphere yeah 100% no I see very little value in an outright ticket on Rory at 7 to1 given that the form isn’t there and given how I feel like PGA National in itself opens up a lot of the field because you open

Up volatility I see a ton of value in DraftKings um the next best player in terms of an outright Market is roughly three times the price I’ll go up and grab Rory especially if if I’m playing someone over 10K this week it’s Rory and you look at the increase in the Spectrum

All the way down to $5,000 and there are a couple names there that I think you can grab that don’t that lessen that impact of taking Rory at 122 and then you can still create a relatively balanced lineup with your other four guys he’s the best player in the field

Like Spencer said by far look it’s it’s not a great course fit like you touched on there Bri Byron excuse me but he won and then came back and finished second two years ago in 2012 and 2014 it’s part of the nature of PJ National that he essentially missed

The next three Cuts here um but he’s proven and players have proven if you’re a topend talent and you show up here with an elite weapon off the tea like Brooks did like Justin Thomas did like Luke list did like Keith Mitchell did like Rory did um you can really step on

The gas in the throw to PGA National and knowing that he’s the best player and most accomplished player in the field helps that a bit yeah I was looking at an an odds board in bet 365’s platform and it said betting without Cam young and Rory maroy and I took a screenshot

Of it and if I hadn’t just tweeted something out right away I would have said makes sense 41 total career wins from the two of these guys yeah you know like Rory having all 41 of them it’s just like why would you have a market that has cam without Cam young

Like he hasn’t even won yet like you should not it shouldn’t be a rule you should have a rule that’s not allowed to do that like surely if it’s a like prodigious winner on tour then you can put him as a without but I mean so I

Guess that’s my take on cam young at two at 20 to1 I I’m gonna just kind of let him do what Hideki did to me in a way and just if he shows up he shows up and does it you know but I don’t see it

Happening it’s it’s he’s built up a lot of scar tissue in the last two years so Spence give me your take on on any of these guys yeah in the 2020 range someone you like someone you you don’t I mean I think if we look at this

From like a DraftKings perspective and I I’ll just do this like $10,000 and up um which kind of should fit all of those names in that we’re talking about for the most part there are a lot of high-end metrics that we can point towards like Cameron young is number one

In my model in Pro ball striking for this course Russell Henley is a top three projected par for score par for scoring is very essential here I just have this thing of when I built this model like maybe Russell Henley you could convince me on if the ownership is

Right but I’m probably G to be out on cam young I’m probably gonna be out on Fitzpatrick I’m a wait and see on Russell Henley right now Tom Kim is fine like depending on where the ownership is but I keep finding myself in this spot

And maybe this is kind of what Joe was talking about to an extent like when it becomes very easy to make a Rory build if I don’t go Rory in like somewhere else super expensive at the top like if I start Rory and I don’t want to do Rory

And benon I mean I think that’s such a popular start which I think is in play but like I want to give something that’s a little bit maybe let’s say like Rory and Connors for example and I don’t know where Connors is gonna be we’ll see where the

Ownership comes in there but like it is very easy there’s a lot of $99,000 golfers to where whether we’re talking about Connor or burger or benon or minw Le or Poston or Cole like I almost prefer all of those guys over almost any of the $10,000 plus options like I think

Russell Henley is very much in that mix but we also have this price tag of him where he’s 10,200 versus a Connors who’s 9100 and I don’t see a massive difference between those two I do think Henley’s a little bit better but like for me most of that 10,000 plus range is

Probably just going to be I’m out this week and I’m going to build it Rory at the top and just kind of build down from there yeah I mean last week the 9k range was like six or seven guys from what I can recall so this week it’s it’s a

Little bit bigger I think and it’s got much better names you know like names you can lean on and almost start your build with I think baral was saying you can start with Eric C so can Joe any takes on any massive Fades any any stances in the top there in the 10ks

Yeah I mean in in DraftKings I I’m going to play Rory look it I I bet Matt Fitzpatrick I I I couldn’t believe honestly that he wasn’t like the second or third player on this oddsboard I know that the form is terrible but I also feel like he can flip that pretty

Quickly um he possesses enough distance the irons are shaky but he’s played really well in some other spots in Florida in the past particularly like places like beill I think that I like him better on courses where the winning score is is around 10 under par and not

25 under par um he’s made his sort of Home down here in South Florida in Palm Beach County he plays over at Bears Club he’s familiar with this grainy strain of Bermuda grass he had his best finish on what I think a pretty similar like really slick play likee Bermuda greens

At TPC Scottdale and he’s the most accomplished player he’s one major championships um it’s just it’s him but the here’s the thing he’s five when I bet him he was 35 to1 that’s five times Rory’s betting price I’m not going to go down $1,000 and take Matt’s Fitz Patrick and DFS I’m

Going to take him 5x the betting price because I feel like is Rory five times more likely to win this week than Matt Fitzpatrick I didn’t think so at the time it’s why I made the bet but I would much rather love the upside of Rory at

An extra you know whatever it is $1800 in DFS because I know what I can grab down low I love that and I love this is really cool like dissecting a set of players at the top here and determining how you want to invest in them this week

I will I will go and say that Russell Henley to me is not necessarily the best DFS option this week because if you take a look at Russell hanny’s top 10 rate it’s it’s rather lackluster compared to if you bet him at plus 120 like I did

For a top 20 which he’s doing 60% of the time and if you take a look at his return on your investment it’s probably one of the second best golfers in all of golf right now in that market like he’s returning Scotty Sheffer esque numbers

In that top 20 market so bet him in a top 20 and watch him finish 15th again and is that what you want in your DFS lineup right like whereas someone that I’m not necessarily going to bet but I’m going to roster in DFS is Tom Kim

Because I know Tom Kim is going to potentially find himself in the mix and contend because he is a Savage when he’s in the mix but he’s not a good bet because his his consistency isn’t good he’s he’s rating out in the top 40 as

Much as Russell Henny does in the top 20 but his upside to me is better so that’s kind of just how I’m approaching those two guys in this range and I think it’s really interesting to kind of not just take a a one- siiz fits all approach to

Golfers when it comes to DFS or or betting you we’ve been provided with an opportunity to kind of deploy your assets out on these golf in so many different ways really like take a second and sit back and and engulf yourself in some creative juices and see how you can

Employ you know your money to the best way possible for these golfers so sometimes it takes a bit of research sometimes it takes listening to other people but I I just encourage people to not think Super square and kind of figure out a way to kind of go around

The bush in a different manner um let’s dive into the to the nin Y and I think we should probably do a bit more DFS because everyone that follow Joe from his show going to have heard a lot of the betting side of things so feel free

To drop any outrights and things like that as we go along but we’ve got a we got a loaded range here so I’m going to say give me the G may play this week Spencer and the cray cray pre in this 9k range who’s overpriced that you think is

Way too expensive as a cray cray and who’s who’s a little spendy but you you you can handle that gourmet burger there because you think they’ve got what it takes to handle that price tag so I wrote this in my DraftKings article today like I have four Fades

Right now in the $9,000 section I’m not going to play sunjay I’m not planning to play Chris Kirk I’m out on Shane Lowry I’m out on Keith Mitchell I think every other name that we’re talking about has real Merit to consider here like uh I really like Eric Cole this is an every

Week thing with Eric Cole to where I think this is a great course fit for him um I would probably rank it Cole Ben on maybe burger or Connors as like the third choice there so like that will be like the three that I’m the most exposed

To but uh those first four names that I mentioned would be the only four that I’m currently out on right now okay I I’m Joe do you have a take on on Burger this week no I I’m not I’m won’t bet him I’m probably not going to play him I’m

Still sort of waiting and see the incons not necessarily he’s actually kind of been consistent but the just lack of reps that he’s gotten concerns me he’s had some great finishes here he lost to Patty Harrington in the playoff like coming out as a very young player um

Played well as like a favorite here on multiple occasions so um obviously it’s a course that he’s very fond of and continues to show up at and is a good fit for his game but um just I’m not there’s other guys that I like there instead of taking that sort of um

Associated risk with meon burger like I like the two guys under him Keith Mitchell’s playing fantastic um has won here before Corey Conor’s is is been sneaky like I love Cory Connors this week I do feel like he’s that guy that for me that’s that’s too cheap and is a

Great course fit here he lives down here he plays at his home Club is five miles down the road um he has not had a ton of success here and I think people Overlook that and he’s just outside of that top 20 range like 24th 28th 31 he’s doing

The things that he always does well but if he had finished like 9th and 14th there he’d be like 25 to1 this week and probably in the high 9k range you can go Connors who will be popular Connors and Rory and like have a ton of money left

Like if you even click Connor and Rory you’ve got over seven grand left for the rest of your roster so it offers you a lot of flexibility and he’s the guy that I’ll probably definitely have uh be Overexposed even though he’s highly owned this week in the 9k yeah I think

That’s the way to go with it because I had 65% Jake naap last week you know I just took my my chance on him and I knew he was going to be relatively popular but I decided that I would make sure that I if he won it was because I had

Enough of him and he took care of business and you know unfortunately like I said the other two guys never quite came through but we have this beautiful thing and I know this is I know guys came me up for picks and things but I think strategy and understanding the

Contest you play in and how you build lineups and how you can bit guys we are getting back-to-back weeks now of 5K golfers is this going to be a a thing that happens on a on a more regular basis is this is this a new thing is it

Once off is I don’t I feel like the field was fine enough to have Rory at 11 and a half or 113 and still just stop at 6K flat but they gave us a 12 12K Rory and 12.2k Rory and now 5K golfers so Spence how do

You how do you take on this this 5K range now it really it really changes things up I I we talked or I talked talked about this last week on a show I I do think like from a game theory perspective it it does make a massive

Difference of what you can actually do in these builds I will say a lot of these $5,000 golfers for the most part are are pretty much just out of my player pull altogether like I I think there’s a reason why they’re down there now you can find a handful of names um

That I do think have some sort of Merit and you can consider them for lineups but um I mean that would be more so of like for me a guy like Nate Lash if you like now all of a sudden at 5700 if you want to shoot for the upside that he

Possesses I think he makes a lot more sense than when we were doing it at like 7100 uh when these boards were a little bit different but I I would still be very careful dipping down into this range um it’s kind of a player-by-player situation like I’ll consider where Ryder

Comes in I’ll look to see where yuan is with ownership I I I think Andrew Novak is an interesting choice after back-to-back top eight finishes but I mean like those players that I just named there that’s essentially the entire range of what I’m considering down in that range almost everybody else

Is a big red X for me at this point cool so you pick your battles in that 5K range and you kind of go from there really try and utilize that leverage that the good guys down there that you can find some really good value on provide you Joe from an ownership

Perspective does the fact that we have such a much would you say a softer pricing based off of the now the 5K range giving us a bit more flexibility do you think we got to embrace a bit more ownership because the whole field will be playing much better golfers in

General I I don’t I haven’t kind of comprehended this myself so I’m trying to work through it with you too but does that change anything for you um I think it opens up options for people I don’t know that it changes anything necessarily to me I do think

That a lot of people are going to go Rory and then they probably with that second click are like searching and trying to find a needle and a hay stack in the 5K range um I think that if you get up and just cross that border either

Into like 5900 or into the guys in the low sixes um you have a lot more value for a couple extra hundred bucks in terms of where I would project like a finish for some of these players like even if you look at guys like Sig and Shelton and Silverman and you

Like even Sam Ryder Andrew Novak are like significantly Scott Stallings is 58 like Ryan Palmer has a ton of History are they’re all not great options but they’re significantly better than like Joe heith and you know Max geyser and like the there’s just a big difference in terms of projected outcome in my

Opinion that um I think that you can avoid some of that ownership potentially of guys that are just going to search for someone in the 5K because they want to build more topheavy and go Rory and Eric Cole yeah if you go Rory Joel Damon for instance who’s 55 this week you’ve got

$875 still left to go for your next four picks so that is you know that Joel Damon’s not the worst golfer in I actually kind of like him here you know this seems like a course that suits his game if he decides to just take golf seriously again maybe then he he might

Play some good golf at some point but till then you can just still be a Netflix star and kind of kind of rest off his Laurels on season one and just maybe he can parlay this into a Game of Thrones Netflix appearance thing and and go eight seasons deep and just give up

On golf any way that’s a tangent I didn’t expect going down this week let’s dive into some some 8K guys here I do want to mention though before we do that Keith Mitchell Joe he’s one of these guys that he hasn’t had a top five this

The last 12 years 12 months sorry and it’s it’s bothering me to like deal with these golfers that have these deficiencies when they’re under pressure you know like Keith on H 10 in round four he’s probably one of the I’m going to say he’s an elite driver of the

Golf ball he’s top five top 10 on the PGA tour when it comes to accuracy and distance hits his ball in the water on the 10th Hall you know like when he’s right in the mix he finish t19 but like it’s just stuff like that that just

Keeps him from gaining my trust to kind of really deploy him and and hope that he can provide me with some upside because he just seems to fall down the leaderboard as the weekend unfolds do you do you believe that guys always repeat those kind of patterns like Keith

Mitchell does or or do you think that a certain Golf Course can really break the chains off of that kind of restriction it’s interesting I think guys like that it courses that play where you don’t have to go out and fire a ton of birdies I think it’s

Advantageous for players like that I I struggle and I know that there is a system that could be very profitable avoiding this but if a guy’s 113th in putting like Keith Mitchell is like I struggle there to get on that guy particularly because the majority of my

Focus in dollars on a week- toe basis are in the outright market so when there’s players below him who I know are consistent good Putters and I talked about this with Andy a few weeks ago my opinion is that putting is a lot less volatile and variable than people

Probably give credit for I think that’s a a talking point on the whole is generally wrong um if you look at the guys that consistently putt well week to week it’s actually one of the more predictive stats that we have you look at a guy’s ball striking

In approach numbers and you’ll get plus four minus three they’re all over the place from week to week but the guys who are good Putters consistently putt well and in my opinion I usually like to bet on a guy to um try to catch a hotter

Iron week if he’s shown those signs than to try and catch a Keith Mitchell who I know is a really bad putter who I think is all of a sudden going to gain five strok six Strokes on the field which is what’s required to win an outright

Ticket like you have to be really good on and around the greens if you’re going to beat 156 other guys in the field which is a little bit different from assessing it from Strictly a DraftKings perspective that’s a good point too you know I think it’s it’s difficult to kind

Of especially when you do DFS edding to to separate your feelings on a golfer like I know you can’t win doesn’t mean you can’t have him in your lineups you know like he’s still going to provide you with a solid make cut percentage and and you know some upside there with

Birdies and Things So speaking of those kind of golfers we’ve got mat Pavan who’s $8,700 Spence we’ got SE Striker returning here to try and take his title back from Chris Kirk We’ve Got Jake knp in the field I don’t know if he’s gonna be any sort of functionality right now

Got Justin Rose perennial Heartbreaker from my side of things Luke list know you two enjoyed on the preferred lines rosmus nikolai’s hopefully better brother if I put him in some lineups for myself he’s not better not better I know but hopefully he can be the the non-

Eval twin this week I I don’t know so Spence you got anyone in this in this range you got your eye on so I have two outright tickets that I’ve punched a a ticket on right now one comes from this range I took Stephen joerger at 40 to1 I

Think as an industry and we’ve even talked about this a little bit Byron like I understand the lack of intrigue with the upside that joerger has produced so far on the PGA tour but I I think as an industry we’ve seem to have forgotten that this is a golfer that won

Six times on the corn fairy tour I I do think winning at some point breeds more winning here and for whatever reason joerger really wasn’t finding himself in contention in any of these tournaments like he was making a lot of cuts but he wasn’t getting those high-end finishes

Well now all of a sudden you fast forward to this season you have two top three finishes in his last three starts he has a 22 consecutive made Cuts I think the time is going to come at some point where joerger finally gets across the Finish Line a ball striking course

Like this and we saw the putter heat up recently for him so uh now if you can merge together this putter with the incredible ball striking that he brings every single week I think he is right for a victory at at some moment here and I thought 40 to1 was a really intriguing

Price and even when we look here on DraftKings at uh what is he 8,800 I thought that was far too cheap like he was the best value for me 8,000 or above I love Jer as a DK play I just have it in my head that he’s not gonna

Win a tournament I just I’ve watched it and I’ve you know and I’m not saying that you’re right or wrong we we don’t know until the week’s the week’s done right I I didn’t believe that J personally as a jake naap outright ticket holder didn’t believe he was

Going to win the tournament just after watching the first four h so somehow these guys figure it out they find some divine inspiration they get in a in a Groove in a flow and things can change buter to me always he’s similar in Keith Mitchell’s like he he finished T3 but he

Shot 63 on Sunday to finish T3 you know it wasn’t like he was I don’t know I I think the only thing I will add to that that’s at least worth noting here is and and and I think this is why he’s such a great DraftKings play Maybe above

Anything else like I still like the outright number that I got on him but like at 8,800 he’s the 17th price player on the board you no longer need that victory that you’re talking about like he if he’s 10,500 we’re having a different discussion at this point of

What his upside actually is and that might be a different discussion to be had but he’s just too cheap for for I mean if he comes in eighth place he comes in 11th place yeah I’m going to be happy with that performance from what I think like the price tag should have

Been for him what do you think I love Jagger I think they’re I’m starting to sort of reframe my mind in terms of guys that I think can win and where I think that that scar tissue can build and perpetuate negativity that is detrimental to players is more so with

Topend players who had a lot of success winning early in their career and even like someone like Sheffer like someone who won a ton of times and is expecting that to continue to happen and it doesn’t I think that negativity struggles I’m no longer willing to say like do I

Think this guy can win a tournament he’s never won before no I can’t really say that with anybody we would have said that with Grayson Murray we would have said that with Nick Dunlap we would have said that with Jake naap we would have said that with Matthew pavon we said

That with endless guys think of the guys that have won the Honda would you have ever thought that they would have won this event Chris Kirk seaka these are all losers perennial losers um Matt Jones even Keith Mitchell when he won um all of these guys were not guys that you

Came into that tournament and if you would have asked yourself that question do I really believe he can win a golf tournament you would have probably answered that no at the time um but these are guys who have come through at this event with really no track record

In historic winning pedigree to to sort of ride that confidence on and we able to break through two top threes in his last three starts are great results for Jagger I think distance is probably my biggest like and I haven’t listened to a

Ton of PODS but if I were going to say a point that I’m emphasizing more that most people probably won’t it’s sheer distance here and he’s picked up a ton of ball speed and made big giant strides in that category you mentioned a streaky putter that he’s relied on he’s been one

Of the best TAA green guys for the last six months of play so I’m on joerger as well yeah I was doing the research though last night and I filtered on just trying to see how much a guy can gain off the te at this venue and in doing so

I think I saw Jagger in the last years one of the years he led the field in Strokes gained off the team so he’s comfortable driving the golf ball around you now he’s got even more distance who knows how that helps maybe he can hit three-wood when he wanted hit driver I

Don’t know but I love him too I just I’ve got this thing with I just these certain guys I kind of just accept that I’m not going to bet and and they if they bite me they bite me it’s it’s going to happen and it’s happened you

Know like it’s it definitely has someone that can win and has arguably got the best opportunity to play his best golf on a course that suits him the best so far is Matthew mat Pon like he’s taken talk about the balls to like go and win the tournament finish third at peall and

Then just say you know what I’m out of the first elevated event that I’m gonna have an opportunity to play in or the second you know like he’s just like you know what Genesis not for me I’m gonna take a bit of a break he’s I said on the

Show like he’s he’s probably busy moving all his stuff from France over here now because he knows for a fact he’s going to be in America for the next little while because he’s secured himself two years worth of play and all that jazz I think this course suits him great I know

He’s a fader of the golf ball I know you typically want to hit a bit of a draw here but I think the way he hits his irons I think the way he puts the short game he has I mean he seems like a perfect option down here in this 8K

Range and I bet him as well I think at a 50 to1 so like it’s just a it’s a really nice number for pavon do you guys have any reservations on him or you think he’s he’s looking good Spence I probably prefer him on it’s probably the opposite

Answer of what you gave Byron like I like pavon on DraftKings I I couldn’t get there in the outright Market on him but uh the short game numbers look great he’s six in my model and weighted Strokes gain total for this course he’s the number one player if you just I mean

Obviously you win a golf tournament and you have a couple other highend finishes you’re going to be the number one player this season in Strokes game total for this but uh you know the ball striking has been great the approach numbers look fantastic number one in my model from

Proximity from 150 to 175 yards I I guess the only thing with him that would worry me ever so slightly is I do think that this to maybe to some extent and maybe not is you’re really catching a falling knife at this point potentially to where like we’ve seen the high-end

Results and now there’s a reason why he’s 8,700 and he’s you know 50 to1 or less to win a golf tournament there’s always a chance that he had a hot month and he returns back to whatever his true Baseline is that would be my only concern but um I mean my numbers love

Him for what we see right now yeah especially after a three- week break you know that is concerning he’s not keeping that momentum Joe yeah um I can’t do it there’s not it’s just it’s too high for me if he didn’t have the win look Florida is a lot different

Than California golf yeah at the farmers there’s not a single Speck of water on that entire Golf Course except for the 18th hole at Pebble Beach there’s no real risk of ever going in the Pacific Ocean there’s water everywhere on this golf course it is a totally different

Style than what he played at Pebble Beach and Tory Pines and pricing him up there with someone with a lot more consistency like Jagger like McCarthy or straa who have had success here and understand southeast United States golf I’m just much more in line to to click

Those guys and that’s probably what I’ll end up doing I mean you you even see in the betting market right now stro has already jumped out to like minus 130 against pavon at particular books out there joerger’s becoming a pretty substantial favorite so that’s always worrisome to me when and I mean those

Are I think in those spots like I like straa I love joerger so I’m not so concerned of the players that he’s an under doog against but it it does become concerning where over and over and over again you see a guy an underdog against all his counterparts in that range yeah

And I think I may just land up leaving that 50 out there as the betting the betting option and just I’ll just leave him alone in DFS you know I think if he has another crazy week he wins this thing kind of thing and if he blows up

Then it’s just an outright that I didn’t cash I’ve got other guys that can do it you know I’ve got seven other outrights this week that can do that for me so we’re gonna have a fun we got full engage eight mode at the cognizant Honda

Classic this week so um let’s go from Joe said something about know how to play Southeast Golf and the fact that some guys have not played good golf here when they typically should have and I have an outright on Tom hogi 66 to1 for Tom hogi what on Earth has been his issue

Around this golf course he’s in he’s Elite with the iron play and it’s just never transpired here it should it’s he’s a good long iron player and he’s not like overwhelmed off the te so it’s just really interesting how I’m hoping that the form that he brings this week

Is is he’s been playing Great Golf and I’m kind of curious to see if recent form clashes with course history in a in a positive way or or not Joe go ahead so I don’t really know why he’s not good here because he’s great from 125 to 200

Yards he’s been great on the west coast um obviously has not had much success here I think maybe has some to do with the Bermuda um on my Strokes gain around the green when I sort of filtered in Bermuda grass he’s 107th in the field um

He’s not long off the te either so he doesn’t have that plus and I think this course just there’s nothing tricky necessarily about it they’re pretty fairly large size greens like 7,000 square feet but I know cuz I’ve played this place visually it does something to you so like if Tom hogi is

Staring at a green at Riviera from 175 yards or at Pebble or at somewhere else they even if it’s the same size green it’s just different here because the whole one side is protected by water which makes you visually and maybe not psychologically aim at the pin you’re

Aiming away from the trouble right you’re trying to play it safe which puts you in a different mindset with more protective with your t- shots and you just have to step up there and hit that shot because the bailouts are dead like you almost might as like you you can’t

Risk going in the water because it’s two shots right you can shoot yourself out of the tournament really quickly here but if you play it safe and you go to these areas and chipping areas and bunkers on the opposite side of the water it is almost an impossible up and

Down 15 16 17 nobody gets those up and down from those greenside bunkers like it’s one of the lowest rates that you’ll see all year because it’s just a really hard almost impossible shot that you know if you blade it a little bit it’s going to roll right into that water and

Double screw you so it’s just a place that you have to um be familiar with it’s a stepping up and hitting and firing at pins when there’s trouble all around it which maybe that has something psychologically to do why he hasn’t had a ton of success here very likely Spence

Any takes on that and any other guys you kind of got your eye on here in the sevens that you want to mention yeah I’ll mention one in a second I I think when I look at my model there’s let’s call it four red flag sort of Trends and statistics for hogi that

Would worry me and maybe would explain the course history he’s 133rd in my model in Strokes gain total in moderate to severe wind I think that could potentially hurt some of his approach numbers there like the the approach numbers are going to look great when you

Just run those numbers the way they are but if all of a sudden the iron play gets worse that hurts one of the big parts of his game 129th in my model and strokes gain total on hard courses so once again you know some of these

Players are better at Birdy Fest some of them are better at tough courses like Joe talked about it with Fitzpatrick he’s a player that you throw him on a difficult course all of a sudden his upside increases for what his high-end results can be yeah uh Joe talked a

Little bit about the sand safe percentage and some of those factors there Hog’s 80th in my model in that area and then kind of just doubling back down on on the off the te stuff that Joe was talking about he’s 116th in my model in expected total driving for this

Property he’s 142 when you find these hard to hit Fairways that like more challenge with it and that puts him at 116th there 99th in distance 67th for accuracy um I think when he pops he has the potential to pop in a big way just because of the iron play and some of

That that he brings to the mix but uh he is highly volatile to me and um that’s probably like a golfer to where I’m not going to get on him but I I think he’s a better outright play probably or like a better large field gpp sort of a a

Contest play he has tons of miscut equity we’ve seen that in the past and there’s a reason why that comes into place I’m not looking to like find a matchup on Tom hogi and then you know take an opponent on like it’s just that’s not the way I want to go about

That for me though I’m going to go with the golfer that is a little bit shorter off the tea and a guy that I didn’t necessarily enter the week wanting to play but I really like Christian baz and how when you look at his approach numbers that he’s bringing so he’s

Gained between 1.3 to 4.7 shots with his irons over his past four starts the driver is going to have to improve he has lost to the field in his last eight tournaments there but you know maybe this can be one of those spots for him where he takes a little bit different of

Approach where find the Fairway not that he’s the most accurate golfer in the world but find the Fairway create this combination of weight to proximity and putting is that going to be enough I don’t know necessarily but I I still thought he should have been like $1,000

More expensive on DraftKings and I think as a DraftKings price he was really interesting and then we saw him open the 80 to 90 to one range I got him at 66 to one I missed some of that movement there I I thought 50 to1 was the fair price on

Him I think lower than that is you’re pushing it too far but I think the movement we’ve seen on him is legitimate at this point I love him I was contemplating biding him outright but I just I just don’t think he can get across the line

For me you know it’s just you might be right on that he’s just one of these guys but I’m going to be betting him top 40 at minus 120 that’s just gonna happen um I’m looking at his stuff here he’s had two top three consecutive top 30s in

These last three starts and he’s had a 42nd and a 25th out this venue so it’s scream like much better game same kind of golfer like I was speaking to his his trainer when I was at the John Deere two years ago and he’s just like he he refuses to be

A modern day golfer he’s hitting his irons like Prime tiger right now but he refuses to do what it takes from a driving perspective to get length and and just be like make things easier for yourself he’s too passive he’s too defensive on the course maybe that helps

Him at this kind of a venue I don’t know we’ll have to see but I love him just not like the I’m keeping him in my my basement you know minus 120 top 40 so Joe hit me with some 7K guys before we dive into the sixes and wrap ourselves

Up yeah okay so I like Adam Fenson I think that he’s going to be extremely extremely popular I followed him here um in route to a really good finish a few years ago and it’s the reason I started betting him I was blown away by his ball

Striking ability and his ability to miss like six foot putts which I also found out that day um but his numbers are really solid I mean the top 10 at Riviera was kind of very unpredictably and unexpected for a guy like Adam swon um so he ranks really high in the model

That I run the guy I I I I don’t ever like this guy but my model kind of loves him this week and I’m sort of coming around is 7100 MAV mcney um he’s playing much better he’s had let me see did did

I see some good okay so he has a t11 in 2020 at this event when it was the Honda um he’s been really hot with the putter lately but he’s he’s good on and around the greens um he’s got some pretty good chipping to him he’s he’s decent off the

Tea he’s got enough distance that I’m kind of looking for that I’m sneaking in there as sort of my special sauce for the week and at 7,100 I don’t feel like it’s one of those weird prices where I don’t feel like a lot of people with the

Sticker will go there when they can go and find the guys in the high sixes that they will perceive to be a little bit more value and a better price point so um those are kind of two that I’m looking at one that I think will be

Really popular and then MAV uh we’ll see as the week progresses but I think could get a little sneaky yeah he’s interesting man and I think he’s the perfect price because he’s also one of these guys that gets real jumpy around the lead you know like that’s the thing

With MAV but at this price point that’s completely fine I’m totally cool with that I’ll definitely be I mean he’s coming back from injury I think he’s starting to wrap that driver quite nicely like I was looking at his distance stuff he’s he’s getting it above average out there so it’s not a

Guy that you kind of expect to do that and he has top six at the waste management like that came out of nowhere and then 13th last week in Mexico so made four consecutive Cuts he’s he’s starting to get back in a little growth he sure is and one market I was looking

At and I was just like laying on the couch just scrolling the South Africans Bei is plus 130 versus EVR and higo I would imag yeah I was just thinking like hio is not even part of the equation on this golf course I’m going to I’m going to eat my words but

It’s basically Bei plus 130 versus EVR you know like to me that’s just like a head-to-head straight up match up there and I’m kind of curious if I’m going to pull the trigger there so do you guys have like a take on EVR at all because I

Know we all love Bei but is evr’s playing good golf too I don’t know if this course suits him as much as you know the courses we’ve come from I I don’t I always worry about bets like this um like that being said van royan 76 than my model there’s really

Not much to love and and you kind of talked about the higo equation he’s 107th for me um I those are usually staya away spots just because I don’t see the value when it becomes a three-man sort of a battle like that but that’s more of a personal choice but

Like I am not in on Van royan necessarily and I’m out on higo also so I I know that doesn’t answer your question unfortunately Byron but uh I mean it’s two golfers that I don’t like that I get bade and Hal on the good end of it yeah at plus 130 you know

That’s like to me it’s a very nice number I don’t think I’d like it minus 125 or something like that but who knows let’s dive into the Sixers I know we kind of scooting around the a Mark and I know I don’t is back on backtack hours

Yes so we’re gonna get him off the off the camera before his face melts off here but um Joe hit us with your favorite value play kind of situation here in the I know Carson Young’s been playing some good golf Brandon W Sammy vaki maybe Alexander Bor has my attention to a

Degree I think he finally shows up to a golf course that can really let his kind of skill set shine this week so who’s who’s catching your eye I have two and I’m probably clicking them both in my lineup and they’re both 6200 um CT pan bar off talked me into

Him this morning he laid out a bunch of great points on why you should like CT pan this this week I think he had the best round on Sunday at T3 in Mexico he’s had some success here in the past as well with the T3 back in 20121 and

Then a 16th in his last finish the other one is Chan Kim um I think he’s a great course fit for this place he’s striking his approach numbers have been pretty good he’s a good Scrambler um he also topped 10 in Mexico he also topped 10

Right before that I want to say it was the American Express yeah I’m sorry T14 at the American Express um he won twice late summer like in August September backto back on the corn fery tour he actually was second on the corn fairy tour in points so he had a much better season

Last year Than Jake knap and Grayson Murray two guys who you’ve seen get wins and both of those players right there at 6200 I do think if you want to Stack Rory with a high 9k guy and you want to avoid the volatility of the 5K range

Taking like two of them there I think they both have pretty high likelihood of making the cut this week now we are talking about PJ National so it can all go out the window very quickly but those are two that I sort of have starred in

The in the 6K range I don’t want to be the guy that keeps on pushing back but I had Chan Kim as an outride last week I had him as a top 20 I feel like I’m the Chan kin Whispering the way I’m taking over sck’s um mon not really but never

Will be the Chan Kim whisper but I took a look 28 underpar was his one win on the kft 20 underpar was his other at the MX think about how you go low there think about Mexico going low yeah he’s struggled on the corn fairy tour just in

A few starts on hard courses that can easily change you know like he’s playing good golf right now but that does just give me a bit of pause in that respect there but I’ve got my spoils from him already so I’m cool like letting him ride off into the sunshine and just

Disintegrating you know like if he does so um just my fair share of warning in that department on Chan I do love uh CT pan got a 30021 drop that in the Discord this morning CT pan a T3 last week and a T3 here in 2021 I mean that’s like for a

300 to one bet I feel like that was a fun bet to make I don’t know just I the thrill was enough just to make the BET before you even play so Spence hit me with some guys in this range and um give the people what they need to know you I

Mean I think if like push came to shove and I was able to get into the $7,000 section I would probably rather play like Rio um senson Joe mentioned him Doug gim Adam shank like I do think there’s a little bit of a step up in class and then there’s like that next

Move up into Baden and into like if you want to move all the way up into joerger there I mean we’re getting into different price ranges but I think in the $6,000 range like the two for me that were the most intriguing uh that I will definitely have exposure to this

Week I thought Austin ekro is a good play at the price thought Brandon woo I I I know last week was the Brandon woo course that I mean he once again produced but like didn’t necessarily love him for that venue last week and he continues to prove me wrong but was a

Spot this tournament where he was a top 40 player in almost all iterations of how I built my sheet top 25 for ball striking weight to proximity numbers were inside the top 40 so you know there there’s going to be these downside numbers to point to for any of these

Golfers in the $6,000 range and that’s the reason why I think there’s a step down in class between options like that and you know somebody senson who can give you a little bit more of that upside potential but um it would probably be EC Roden woo for me in the

6000s that I’ll have the most exposure to cool yeah like you mentioned I know you get real you get real picky in the in the lower price situation you’re not a fan of of just whereas I’m I’m cool like letting I’m very trusting you know I’m a very trusting guy I’ll let some

Cheapo kind of take take my my life away from me if it happen you know it’s like a very similar mentality for whatever reason I don’t know why why my brain goes in this direction like so when you like deal with fantasy football for example and you do like Dynasty football

Drafts and everybody wants to spread out their portfolio to a bunch of different players and have like the mix and match that comes into play that’s never been me I find my couple guys I like and then I go overweight in those spots and I try

To pair them with the Rory’s at the top and that’s how I try to win gpp contests is just find like the handful of names I like at the bottom and it gives me more opportunities to like if I’m correct obviously that’s where the highend comes

Into play I if you’re wrong then you have a terrible week and all that Rory exposure dips down a little bit but I mean even with that being said we’re still talking about a handful of options like when it when push comes to shove here there’s going to be 10 plus names

For me that are like between 5,000 and 6,900 that will make the pull in some fashion it’s just some are going to be a little bit more exposer than others yeah yeah I like the point you made about Brandon woo and I think looking at guys who may have been overp poopular the

Week prior particularly in these ranges um I always tend to gear and hone in and sort of visually drawn to those guys the following week like another one right above him that I’m looking at is Johnny Vegas like people love Johnny Vegas last week dude find me a guy who’s made Seven

Consecutive cuts at the Honda Classic that’s Johnny Vegas I believe he was first round leader if you if you’re a firstr leader bet guy I think he did it twice in back-to-back years at the Honda um but some like impressive finishes fourth 16 the guy actually in 2018 made

The cut here and ended up finishing for the week 14 overp par like that’s how that’s what this place could do to you so um and it could happen really fast but seven consecutive cuts at the Honda I don’t know uh many players who who can say they’ve done that yeah because with

The volatility of this golf course that is so impressive you just like 5K 6K you want a guy who’s going to make the cut that’s all you want here like the six out of six percentage is going to be so low this week it always is because

You’re gonna end up with like Eric Cole and Matt Fitzpatrick and like somebody else big who missed the cut like it happens every year here and it’s really hard if you can get some of these guys through it gives you so much of a better chance yes do we have thoughts on Gary

Woodland this week he loves this place dude he plays down in Del re I I’m rooting for him um he’s played well here a couple times before was super encouraged um about his his showing at the Genesis especially being paired with the you know Justin Thomas and tiger um

But I still have concerns about uh getting it straight off the te for Gary so but but I I don’t mind it hey he was the only one of those three the only person of that three ball was the person had just recent brain surgery to make

The weekend yeah like wild what on Earth was going on there I’ll wrap up with the fives here I got a Sam Ryder who’s finished top 10 in his last two starts of this venue $5,900 and he’s one of the best iron players in the field so give

Me an elite trait or a top end trait for $5,900 I’ll take it with this kind of course history and then Andrew Novak is trying to catch some lightning in a bottle right now he played nicely last week and he also did some good stuff at the waste management we’ve got

Back-to-back top 10 top eights so we’ll see what he can get up to I think those are going to be my two guys in the in those fives um any any other names you guys want to say and then we get out of you I I mean boring answer like I will give

The same two names that you talked about I think they’re two of the better values down in that range my model like Chandler Phillips I talked a little bit about the Boomer bus potential of an option like Nate Lashley I think Carl Yuan Parker cudy I mean like we’re

Starting to get gross at a certain point but there’s at least a like you you mentioned it best Byron like you’re you’re trying to find a particular trait that you can hone in on and while you are taking on a ton of volatility to the mix it’s the point that Joe keeps

Talking about like PJ National is a highly volatile course at its core so you know water anytime you throw water into the mix it just massively Alters the trajectory of the venue so I think there’s names that you can consider down there I would try to find something that

They’re high-end in and kind of just hold on to that and hope that you kind of pick the right names there but uh at a certain point like outside of really Novak and Ryder and I don’t have enough numbers on Phillips everybody else is outside the top 50 of my model yeah kind

Of like Ryder as well um I’m probably going in in full transparency to gear toward those two guys and botom out at the 6200 but there’s a dart throw down here that’s a bit interesting so what if I told you there was a guy that during the fall fall swing not only

Won an event but finished T2 an event during the fall swing and has a win at the Honda Classic and he’s $5,300 I’m buying baby it’s Camilo vas yes let’s go had a T2 at the wwt uh Championship he won in Bermuda he won the Honda Classic before in his crew do

You know who he beat at the Honda that year who finished second what was the year 2010 big a big name in golf this week U no go ahead it was my first time in the Honda Classic Camilo beat Anthony Kim that week at the Honda Classic so

Anthony Kim returns um but I don’t know just an interesting name like he’s not playing great but if you’re going to take a full-on dart throw he’s one here he obviously has some confidence rolling over from the end of that fall swing there with a win and a T2 um hasn’t

Played great to start 2024 but another Florida guy who should feel more comfortable on Bermuda grass um 5300 if if you’re in like a big gpp like a $5 or a dollar or something and you want to build some lineups with some volatility and go all the way down to 5300 he’s a

Name I might click I love it I absolutely love it and if you are clicking on anything R balla premium where you want to do that with us use code T off if you want to support Spencer use code is it lons Joe it’s lines yes lons code lines if you want to

Support Joe and code Maniac if you want to support me or if you just want to we were giving you 30% off with code new and we weren’t getting any of that Kickback for our little personal stuff now you got to support us we’re going to

Give you 10% but it’s going to help us a lot we know we got a few of you guys on board we really appreciate all of you that were in the chat we really appreciate all of you that have been in the Discord and we really appreciate all

Of you riding with us we’ve provided two winners in the last two months so that’s been relatively good all things considered industry-wise you know it’s been tough to hit a winner these years so um Joe thank you for joining us on the show I know we kept you touch longer

Than we should have but we just love you so much we couldn’t resist um feel free to kind of rattle off what you’re getting up to for the rest of the week and um hand it off to Spence after that yeah sounds good guys love you too as

Always appreciate the Roto baller family um yeah I’ve got just follow me at Tor piix it’s going to have all my content for this week I’ve got like four or five articles coming out on Roto Ballers some of them are up now the top 10 and the course preview is totally free click

That totally free if you want to use that promo code lines you’ll get access to the Market Movers piece you’ll get our PG Our Round Table sort of a DFS discussion which we all complete each and every week and then you’ll get um access to the Long Shots video which

Will be out tomorrow this is my this is honestly my favorite week of the year I feel like I know this course better than any on the PJ tour the only problem with that is it’s maybe the hardest course to predict that we get all year but I know

The ins and outs I’ll be there this week all weekend if you if you’re going to the cogniz classic uh make sure to send me a DM stop by and say hi would love to meet you and uh have a great week guys Spence I mean I’ll close this a

Little bit differently I mean like as Joe said if you’re not already subscribed to Roto ball or consider doing it for all his pieces your pieces Byron that we talk about all the time all mine like we have tons of content on the website I I do want to note that

What Ryan wrote Into the chat with that Ben on ticket moving to 28 to1 we didn’t really discuss that I think once you and this is just like an answer to be given in general if you ever see a number go from like 45 to 28 you’re never going to

Get that push back back up like once the numers moved the ship has sailed it’s never going to get back further like that move has been done and then second thing Joe I I know you were talking a little bit that you like wrestling I don’t know if you’ve seen this picture

Back there uh Shawn Michaels sharpshooter yeah it’s this Sean it’s from the Montreal the screw job yeah boy I dude I have I have a uh I W I took my son to his first wrestling event a few weeks ago and I wore a Bret Hart shirt

So that was a tough day for me man I was really invested heavily in WWE wrestling at that time and and was was sad I think I may have cried during that very moment um but but Lov to see it buddy love to see it who who is just as we close the

Show who is your favorite wrestler is it Bret Hart Bret Hart all time yeah my son’s favorite wrestler who we got to see in Miami a few weeks ago is a man by the name of La Knight he is he is new he’s pretty funny um but uh yeah Brett

Hart’s a dude for me I will go with Triple H I don’t know if you have anything to add to that Byron switch in music baby he’s always been my guy yeah the other end of the screw job dude you would like him DX so all right fellas all right boys

Thank you so much guys thank you I did reply to Ryan in the chat there a little bit and just gave him said it’s going to get shorter but I don’t know if it’s going to bounce back either you know I think it’s it’s kind of found its its

Stomping ground have a great week I’ll probably see if we we’ll probably be doing some wrestling hacking it in Hollywood on my show then Joe so I think that’s the way we’re gonna I’m gonna have to brush up on my wrestling for you and um look forward to chatting to you

Again we’ll catch you guys all next week Monday for the RO balla PGA show as always pivot your face off have a great week and we’ll see you guys then cheers