2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Research, Guess The Odds | Puerto Rico Open Picks, Preview

Pat Mayo provides the preview and makes early 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event. Plus, a preview of the Puerto Rico Open.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
2:20 Quick Info
5:08 Course & Stats
19:19 H2H Simulator Tool
21:11 Field + Stat Model + Results
29:46 Mixed Condition Model
48:08 MCM vs Model
51:26 Guess The Betting Odds
53:34 Puerto Rico Open Preview

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Please go do that right now okay Arnold Palmer Invitational we’ll get to Puerto Rico a little bit later on towards the end of the show you can always hit the time codes for that but just the quick things you need to know about API this

Year it’s going to have a minimum of 69 nice players depending on who ends up qualifying after the Honda not the Honda Classic the cognizant classic uh some guys might get on the Aon five the Aon 10 whatever the hell it might be right now it’s a minimum of 69 players all of

The top 55 who are eligible are playing except for Tony feno he is the only one I guess Mexico was more important to him uh CU he was the defending Champion but he is taking a pass on Bay Hill there is a cut for this tournament it’s going to

Be like at Riviera top 50 in ties and you think well whatever only 20 guys are going to get cut or around there whatever it’s not going to be that big of a deal just ask anyone at the Riviera who played DraftKings lineups and was

Like oh yeah it’s going to be an easy six to six wrong wrong when the most popular guy Justin Thomas misses the cut not a lot of people have six to sixes and as is always the case with any of the Florida swing courses where you have

This much water in play there’s going to be very popular names who rate out perfectly that you think are super safe are going to hit a rock and it’s going to bounce into the water and they’re absolutely screwed and they’re going to miss the cut it just happens you just

Saw the Carnage at PGA National I believe the six of six percentage was 3.9% I myself actually got a six to six through in the big 150 and I’m in second place going into the final round so let’s you know pray for a hot day I had

A hot day on Saturday the Run The Sims product for F1 Justin and I did the show on Friday no one really cared to watch it or listen to it because it was F1 like what do I know about F1 uh nothing is what I know about F1 but what I do

Know is I got the Run The Sims package it took me 20 seconds to optimize my lineups upload it and I won both gpps that were up there I split it like 30 ways both times with a bunch of people who actually used run the Sims but I

Turned 380 bucks into 3,400 bucks that’ll play I’ll do that every single week not saying it’s going to happen every single week but it was a nice kickoff to showcase the tools of the run the Sim package it’s 149 bucks for the year that’s like six bucks per race so

If you just want extra action and F1 is one of the more exploitable DraftKings games and DFS games in general that I would highly recommend the Run The Sims package Cod Mayo get you 10% off so it’ll be less than $6 a race for the entire season if

That’s the way that you want to go so run thes sims.com over there as well but API I’m looking forward to it’s going to be a very strong event obviously we’re missing the live guys but that’s you know no shocker to anyone who pays attention to golf they don’t play on the

PGA tour anymore so we don’t really need to think about them all that much as it pertains to what we’re doing this week so let’s jump over to the course I love Bay Hill the Arnold Palmer Lodge down just outside of Orlando and it is a par 72 that is

7466 yards Bermuda grass green nine of the holes have water there are 84 bunkers around it plays as one of the more difficult courses on the PGA tour the past four winners of this event were Kitty Yama at minus 9 Scotty Sheffer at minus5 Bryson one now the last two were

A bit stronger Fields Bryson won at minus 11 TL Hatton one at minus four and what was like the absolute Carnage weekend of the year and you probably shouldn’t do anything without consulting the weather first that’s submitting lineups making bets doing head-to-heads whatever it might be uh once again this

Week I told Tambo on the show on Wednesday that I I’m going to make and I wrote it in the newsletter as well the newsletter so completely free to join down in the description none of that’s going to change don’t worry people nothing’s really going to change except

Like listeners leagues are going to be on underdog now uh once we get that sorted so I have the the best ball season major one not one and done the best ball season major best ball contest coming up and we’re going to work on like a pretty cool contest for that but

The other thing that I want to do is in the works I’m working on it with it right now and I think it’s going to be pretty awesome for people that don’t want to spend all the time in the world doing research but can win some big cash

Week to week and in a season long contest going forward for PGA and hopefully that transfers over to NFL as well but we’ve seen some big comebacks here I thought the kittama had it blown last year he took that triple bogey on number nine when he got his ball wedged

In got no relief but he just had steel running through his veins and was able to come out on top of a lot of big names on that leaderboard now if Scotty Sheffer was just able to putt he lost a stroke putting then it would have been

Fine for him but but he won minus five the year before he kind of staged a weekend comeback Bryson did the same Hatton you shot over par on both rounds on the weekend but everyone did only Matthew Fitzpatrick broke 70 uh on the weekend in 2020 so that was that year

Then you had Rory and malari won the two years before and they staged huge comebacks on Sunday they just got the putter rolling both shot 64s and they were actually think Rory may have shot a 63 62 something crazy like that he gained like six Strokes fting in the

Final round alone dude just couldn’t miss I remember watching that from Mexico uh just one of those memories that get etched into your mind uh tiger won here A bunch of times this used to be the mat every open uh he won back-to-back years in 2014 2015 but it

Had been dominated by and large by International Players now it has been three straight Americans have won that broke up the haton mullinar leechman day Rory type of run uh and this used to be a spot where a lot of the Euros they would come over and either make their

First start at PGA National or at Bay Hill in the runup to the Masters and the match play and the players and they would play the first part of the season on the DP World Tour that’s no longer the case anymore they might play one or maybe two of the Middle East swing

Events but then they get their asses over to play in the elevated events be it what was Pebble this year but some of them came over to play at Tory Pines or in Phoenix wherever it might be but when you had two elevated events uh at the

End of January beginning of February it gets most of the people that would have otherwise stayed in Europe to be begin the season over quicker so maybe that’s no longer so much of a thing because you get an elevated field and everyone good is actually playing in this event

There’s water everywhere at this course it’s only in play on nine of the holes but it’s one of those circumstances where like the Pete die courses kind of mess with your mind a little bit because of you can’t see the green or weird elevation changes or bizarre angles even

The holes that don’t have water at Bay Hill they’re going to be in your line of sight so it’s going to mess with your head a little bit and it’s very similar to Riviera a few weeks back that beill actually plays longer than the scorecard would indicate because of the prevalent

Water there’s a ton of dog legs a lot of the holes have more distance to carry than are actually measured on the scorecard or maybe a force layup into some spots so when you consider the average driving distance is 5 yards shorter than the average PGA Tour event 277 to

283 um that’s where that comes in guys just they can grip it and rip it on a lot of holes hell Bryson tried to drive a power five here by taking everything over kind of screwed himself on that hole by the way uh as it turns out

Because he left himself in just horrible horrible positions uh players are forced to lay up uh to keep dry or set themselves up for a cleaner look into the green and a better angle the driving accuracy at Bay Hill despite all of the wind is slightly higher than the average

Tour uh and if you don’t do that you’re risking paying the price like um you John Daly carded an 18 on the par five six hole here in 1998 since 1983 number six has produced 23 scores in the double digits that is the most on the PGA Tour

By a very large margin and some of the names that I listed off there you might kind of think to yourself hm sheffler I mean Bryson’s a pretty good putter so was Hatton but like Rory and Molinari aren’t but they spiked that week leechman like H you know not very good

Kittama can be pretty terrible on the greens as well but one key note that I really noticed when digging through all the research is that the second lowest made putt percentage between 10 to 15 ft is at Bay Hill harbort toown is actually number one a place again where you see a

Lot of not historically good Putters actually gain on the greens and this is probably why that’s the case because in your general tournament when guys are heating up and good Putters are making these 12 foot putts 13 foot putts that that’s how you’re going to generate your

Birdies your par saves whatever it might be is that guys just miss a lot from that range here so the T to Green in the approach especially ends up becoming far more of a factor you got to make your putts obviously but poor Putters Cory Connor is another one who’s like puted

Like kind of well at this course over the years you’re like yeah that’s kind of strange but that’s probably the reason why larger greens as well 7500 square feet wind is going to be a factor as I mentioned uh and there has been an inordinate amount of international

Players who do well so you could think of it in one of two ways is it that the strength of field is now stronger so you’re top end players in this field aren’t just generally the Internationals or is it because they have a lot of experience on wind infused courses like

This longer not in link style whatsoever but you know water prevailing blow up holes everywhere wind factoring in and everything that you’re going to have some of your grinder rounds and you see more of that style of play in Europe versus on the PGA tour that could be one

Of the reasons as well it could just be a you know a small sample that you know it’s just all coincidence I don’t know but just these are some of the things that I wanted to look at uh approach has been over two times as influential on

The top five finishers as off the te three times more impactful than Strokes gained around the green the gap of each of The Strokes gain shrinks when you go to the top 20 finishers and the guys that make the cut but if you look at the winners only approach is three times

More impactful than off the te and almost and over four times around the green so if you’re not dialed in with your approach play then it’s going to be pretty tricky to tell you the truth uh it’s always an important stat to look at it’s always the most important stat and

It’s not always necessarily predictive in that way but it tends to be more pronounced this week with so many approaches coming from Beyond 200 yards historically around 30% of approach shots are going to come from that distance one of the largest distributions on approach shots on the

PGA tour from over 200 yards so those are the main things that we’re looking at this week and we can just take a glance over to Fantasy national.com and pull up the scorecard for Bay Hill as I mentioned before it is the power 72 it is

7466 y uh when we take sort by everything sort by the power 3es you’re going to notice that they are long the shortest one is 199 yards the average length is 2117 these are four of the six toughest holes on the course in terms of generating birdies they’re not the hardest like the

231 yard power 3 is the fourth most difficult number 17 is the fifth most ult at 221 but even like the 200 yard one uh is you know the 11th most difficult so it’s on the easier side but in terms of actual birdie rates when we’re thinking about scoring purposes uh

There’s just not a ton of birdies to be generated off these par 3es you make your par you pray you don’t make a double bogey or a bogey and be on your way four of the top nine finishers last season actually lost Strokes on the par

3es and they kind of gained it on the power fivs that was a bit of an outlier of what we’re looking at mainly the power fours 4 37 yards is the average distance this time around and it’s what you expect there are three holes measuring 400 yards uh there’s yeah 400

And let’s see here let’s generate by yardage there we go yeah there’s two of them and there’s a 400 yard so a 382 a 390 and a 400 yard they’re all on the easier side although they do two of them do play overpower number 10 plays slightly under power the birdie

Percentage 18 15 18 you can do some scoring on these holes that’s generally where the tournaments are one by scoring on the easier power fours generating your birdie opportunities and even Eagle opportunities as it pertains to number 16 on the power fivs and then just making sure you don’t blow up anywhere

Else that’s been kind of the key the average length of the power fivs is 558 yards but there’s a really short one in 511 yards that’s number 16 a 5% Eagle rate on that hole if you blow if you par number 16 uh you’re not going to have a

Very good time it does have a 6% bogey rate to it because is water surrounding it you go in the water you’ve absolutely screwed yourself for it but all of the Power fives carry a birdie rate over 30% like if you’re not doing damage on the power fives it’s going to be very

Difficult like they can help you balance out a pretty terrible day uh in terms of making up for a double bogey somewhere along the way like no one’s going to play there’s going to be very few bogey free rounds at Bay Hill put it that way

So you’re going to need to generate your birdies along with everything else and you can even see when we get down to you know the single round scores the majority of them are 71 so the big bucket 70 71 72 73 so two under to one over is where the biggest bucket is

Going to be of scores that we’ve seen time over time now maybe with a stronger field maybe that leans a little bit better but it all depends on the conditions as well but you’ve seen some pretty low rounds here 64 65 66 67s they’re all out here as are some of the

Bigger numbers so we’re going to get a pretty wide distribution uh looking at the cut line over the years you know plus three 3+ 4 plus three plus 4 last year it was still plus three uh and that was with elevated event status uh but as

Top 50 in Ties That might be down a little bit maybe not just maybe the distribution will still pull itself out to what it is driving accuracy High green and regulation percentage low scrambling a little bit tougher than average but nothing too much out of the ordinary generally speaking about tour

Average 4 three putt percentage um and average driving distance down as I mentioned before although the driving accurate is going to be up from that regard and the putting as mentioned before is going to be tougher from 10 to 15 ft anywhere else on the PGA tour

Except for harbort toown which is the most difficult and to kind of put into perspective that 200 plus approach percentage now a lot of that has to do with the power three is that they’re all over 200 yards but almost 30% of approaches this week are going to come

From 200 yards so the longer irons are really where you want to lean unless someone’s being very aggressive with their drivers uh you would think that it’s funny because Min W Le is making a run at PGA National right now obviously I don’t have him on the card I bet him

At it’s funny I bet him and low at Honda last year and just decided to skip them this year it would have been nice to have those two on the betting card this time around to at least have some runners in the mix going into Sunday but

I always thought this would be better for Min wo because you’ve seen him just take apart the par fives at PGA National um he’s just dominating them just eagles everywhere he’s getting to everything in two just letting it rip with the driver that he actually seems to be better on

The longer holes than the shorter holes which is just a really weird circumstance to think about code Mayo at Underdog fantasy will get you a first-time deposit match of up to $100 help out the show and go do that right now fill out the survey in the

Description as well and just want to tell you about the pick them game uh pick whether your favorite players are going to have higher or lower whatever the stats are and the day byday PGA ones are a lot of fun I’m curious to see what they’re going to be for the Arnold

Palmer Invitational hopefully it’s uh what are he going to score on hole number 16 that would be a fun one to throw in you can pick between two and five players to build a pick them entry you can potentially win up to 100 times your money and you can also make Rivals

Picks which pits two players against each other which is something I’m going to show you in a minute on fantasy national.com with the one of the tools that we used to have that we just brought back that is completely revamped I’ve been throwing out picks all throughout the weekend some good some

Bad we were able to pick on Anthony Kim over on the Liv tour until the very final round when he actually went lower than his 74 a half and actually blew up what would have been a five leg entry winner at 21 to1 but hey sometimes you

Win sometimes you lose it was a winning weekend overall with UFC picks with Liv picks and with F1 picks uh and PGA picks so it was fun to do uh I’m guarantee you you’re going to have a great time playing on Underdog and you can potentially win yourself that extra

Thousand in credit by taking that survey down in the description right now once again sign up today with promo code Mayo get your first deposit doubled up to $100 as well as an instant pick special that will appear on the main page of your app once you go into it before we

Get too far into the modeling of the course one thing that I wanted to show you is that moose finally put the finishing touches on the matchup engine I know a lot of people love the matchup engine for and there’s a note for moose sorry about it took a while to come back

But when we reverted the site back over uh some things got lost in the shuffle and had to be rebuilt he is finally done doing it so let’s try to figure out what we’re doing here in terms of matchups uh we can everything is set to the Arnold

Palmer Invitational so we’ll have to come up with some I don’t know we’ll have to think about let’s say ludvig Oar so you type in the player that you want so you type in ludvig and we’ll make up odds for these guys in a second who’s

Probably going to be in his range Colin morawa let’s say so we’ll throw Colin morawa and we’ll call each of them minus 105 so you put the viig in to the simulator as it goes along minus 105 105 and you can do whatever you want that

Way then you can just load the matchup in so it’ll give you the historic stats uh that we have so we have both the odds and it actually has morawa with their win history so if your matchup record same course same day historic win percentage uh against each other win

Percentage excluding ties in that fashion as well that morawa actually tends to win around 53% of the time but that’s over the last 12 months you can really you can use all of the filters on fantasy National to figure that out a little bit more if we go to the past 6

Months you can see that even at the same course same day Mora usually does beat ludvig Oar at a 60% clip albe it a very small sample once we think about that and we can go past two years as well see if that changes anything but I guess Oar

Hasn’t been around long enough to really dictate a full compliment of matchups uh because it’s still 98 to2 for col Mora CWA so it’s about a coin flip so that would make sense this probably isn’t a good one to go to but you can put any

Players in it with the odds that you find from any site possible with the head-to-head simulator on fantasy national.com you can find that at the very top of the site along with the rolling models the tournament history the live stats the ownership projections whatever it might be you’re at the

Matchup engine up there right now so let’s sck into the field a little bit as I mentioned before it is and there’s there’s my rolling model right now uh it’s everyone everyone besides Tony feno is playing uh in this 69 players at least a few more could qualify top 50 in

Ties end up making the cut and you can see what I did for the modeling already uh when I go to edit the model you can see it up on the screen this is the one I’ve been using for a very long time but we can edit this around a little bit to

Make it uh maybe a little bit better because I have approach weighted pretty highly here at 35% because that is what plays the most but I do have opportunity unties gained at 10 and proximity 200 yards plus at 10% as well Par 3 is a lot

Of that I mean that kind of encompasses everything that is an approach stat as well so maybe we don’t need to lean so much on Strokes gained approach so let’s take that from 35 down to 25 and that just kind of boost up everything else that we’re looking at putting at 6%

Short game which is chipping and putting combined at 6% so we have ourselves covered on the putting front power four percentage at at 12% opportunities gain 12% proximity 200 plus 12% Par 3 is 200 to 225 at 12% and strokes gained off the te at 12% I’m going to boost up Strokes

Gained off the te a little bit more we’ll call that 16% uh just because that was shown to be not obviously as strong as Strokes gained approach but it was second on the list of The Strokes gain num so it should be waited in that fashion so I’ve just messed with it just

A little bit so we can see what our results are going to be for the field on first look and there he is ludvig OAR number one this is where we we saw him for the first time a year ago I remember cus complaining that they were showing

Him on TV and funny his PO of putting splits now uh are he’s gaining 0 five per round people were like up in arms at Tory Pines because he three puted from like five feet which a lot of people did that week but it turns out that although

It’s a very small sample I think it’s like two tournaments worth of data or three tournaments worth of data right now for his putting splits on POA but he’s just doing really well uh let’s see yeah he gained at Genesis he gained at Pebble Beach and he actually did game at

Farmers on the south course on po green so the putting has been really good the approach has been really good the driving he very rarely does he lose off the tea but he’s done it twice so far the season after not doing it anywhere except for this tournament last year

2023 you can see he gained almost five Strokes putting on the green the chipping was bad the driving was bad the approach was okay a lot actually very similar to what we saw uh I would probably say at Sony where that’s kind of a course that takes

Driver out of his hand I I just I mean it’s hard not to like him at a lot of courses but back on Bermuda he got his win on Bermuda at the RSM if he can just go Full Throttle here it’s going to be a

Good look for him I really hope he comes in like 22 to1 25 hell I hope he’s 100 to one but he’s probably going to be like 20 22 25 that’s where he’s been in a lot of these events that I like that a lot we can see uh Strokes gained off the

Te he’s still you know in the past what are we at 24 rounds he’s 11th in this field best from the key part three range third in Opportunities gained third and Par Four scoring anyway everything is going well except for the per fives don’t know why the per five and maybe

It’s because his wedge game just isn’t all that great and that’s kind of the spot in his game where he’s lacking uh more so than some of the very elite players his longer irons are fantastic the shorter ones are not as good because when you get your Tom hogies of the

World and your Eric Cole’s like they’re so deadly from like 125 at him because that’s such a big part of their game that that’s very interesting to see you see Scotty Sheffer he’s ranked fifth in the modeling so it’s a oberg I think oberg is what we’re going with

Eventually we’ll settle on what this is so oberg Xander hogi Rory and Sheffer so you got two winners in there feel like Xander had like some some real struggles at this course maybe I’m misremembering that let’s see Arnold Palmer Invitational he’s played it twice yeah

Last year he lost a ton off the te’s puted the lights out at this course and has not really done anything TD green it’s been negative T green both times that he’s played it not to say much about that but uh everything that he’s done recently has been pretty good for

Xander shafley see yeah fourth 54th 9th third 10th those are his starts so far in 2024 so four top 10 he had a bad AT&T Pebble Beach like whatever it was only three rounds he still actually gained pretty well on approach his approach play has been excellent his TD green

Game was excellent at Genesis if you can figure out the driver which he’s done so far this season at Bay Hill it’s going to be a pretty good look and I do think because of the course history where it’s not bad but it’s not good at the same time that

Maybe we can get him at a discounted price in terms of the betting market like he might come in at like 20 he might be flirting with the 20s where someone like Klay will probably end up a little bit higher and he’ll probably be first round leader and then blow it as

The week goes along because that’s what Patrick Klay ends up doing who else is up here Burns morawa havland Eric Cole Adam Scott who’s into this tournament one of the best fast uh fast green Putters and which this is we’ll build a mixed condition model here in a second

Luke list is also up here I have remnants in my mind because there has been a Tory Pines crossover over the years where Jason day has won both these events Justin Rose has won both these events the Bay Hill and Tory Pines were two of the courses where tiger won like

Seven times each uh but you can see with Luke list putting was great at Riviera he missed the cut at PGA National this week that’s a barbasol Arnold Palmer yeah he’s had two really bad goes on the greens the last two years of this course minus 6.6 in two rounds cuz he missed

The cut then minus 7.1 in two rounds I don’t really know what to think about this cuz he does have two top 10 at this course preco and gained a ton on approach so I I really don’t know where to go with luk Liss people might be off of him because of

The putting and it will probably make me more inclined to play him and then be like oh yeah he just lost five Strokes in two rounds and missed the cut of course that happened but his game is pretty pretty well situated to doing well at this course if the chipping can

Get back for him uh but that’s the way that we’re looking right now Bez missed the cut obviously pavon in the mix again low Lowry and Fitz were two I was going to look at anyway and this is more anecdotal than everything with Fitz you know we talked

A lot about Fitz coming into the week I use him as my oneandone I bet him outright uh but actually I used Burger as my one and done he missed the cut he sucked but Fitz was having a really bad year before this week and you could just

See it like I watch all of his round on Friday and then you know bits and pieces of the other rounds as the week went along and just the Striking was back and like the even the commentators were all over now I wouldn’t really trust the commentators fully on a lot of this

Stuff uh because whatever they currently see on the screen is obviously they’re the greatest people of all time just like Russell Henley greatest putter alive because he made like 215 Footers in a row it’s like I can’t miss ever one of the best Putters in the history of

The PGA Tour not the case as it turns out with Russell Henley but with Fitz uh we’ve just seen him play I mean this is one of his jams uh 14th 9th 10th 9th 2nd the past five tries he puts the lights out on the course he drives the ball

Really well he’s been driving the ball really weak uh this really well this week at PGA National so I don’t see a reason to jump off of Fitz now these back in more friendly confines and let’s take a look at the weather for a second

Here just uh wanted to show you what the weather is a a showing this week so you have Thursday and Friday pretty good like scoring conditions uh both those days uh maybe towards the back end of Friday as it goes right now Tambo and I will break down the final win splits on

Wednesday to see if there actually is a pronounced wind split and I’ve just been doing win wind splits anyway although with only 70 players in the field you might not actually get an AM and PM wave because everyone’s just going to be kind of out on the course right around the

Same time there might be like two hours a difference between guys maybe two and a half hours so nothing to pronounce everyone should get around the same conditions but it does pick up right now on Friday but we get to the weekend and Carnage there we go uh average wind

Speeds of right around 178 for both the days with gusts you know maxing out at 30 that could get even worse as we’ve seen at Bay Hill over the years so another one of those years where guys can blow up on the leaderboard I would save some bullets if this continues for

The week you don’t need to blow your wad on Monday morning you pick the numbers that you like and you go on your way but other than that I I do think that there is going to be some value to some more grinder type players you know know them

When you see them type of thing I I am wondering how theala has done at this course because he popped up in a lot of different putting splits for me he was bad at the Genesis um and maybe he just kind of blew it all in Phoenix and

Couldn’t get the job done but the putting has been absolutely Stellar so far this year he’s 14th a year ago the chipping was bad which is something normally he is very good at uh but the driving and approach were both good he was able to figure out these greens it

Much improved from 2022 when he was pretty awful at this course so maybe we can still ride some for him with the gala coming into play who’s been like towards the bottom here Sheamus power Ricky fower Nick Dunlap Dunlap having a good week so was Ricky Fowler Lee Hodges

Mck Hughes Mack Hughes withdrew from PGA National he might withdraw again from this Rose has been up and down like rose just keeps making big numbers it sucks and he was someone who played this course amazing through one part of his career and the year that Bry W8 I

Believe he withdrew with a back injury but he used to dominate you know third 2nd 15th 9th third he’s just been atrocious the past few years uh at this course so that’s another one to kind of look at to probably stay away from I’ve been trying to ride Justin Rose and pick

The time sunjay another one you know he missed the cut at PGA National this week but he’s someone who’s just had a lot of success at this course and you know he’s never missed the cut he’s never finished worse than 21st he has two top three finishes but again like the approach

Don’t lie and again this week at cognizant he lost on approach and that’s why he’s missing the cut uh over and over so those are some of the bad names in the model right now uh what we do though is build out a mixed condition

Model to see if we can kind of Peg down the types of players that are really good here and if you go along the left hand side of fantasy national.com you can see the splits that we have so it’s always on 100% Bermuda grass screens uh

The rough is always long so the first thing we’re going to do is click on this feature I really like this one the rolling model and we’re going to go to our model itself and Bay Hill so we’re going to load that in and we’re going to

Add that to the mixed condition model you can see uh in my my rolling report I have everything at 17 so let’s wait this a little bit differently we’ll give a little bit less to both 4 and 100 we’ll wait those the worst of the bunch and

Then we’ll kind of progressively work up to 24 and try to make those because I do think that recent form means more than anything else uh even more than course history but I think this is the proper way to wait it I’ve been playing around with this each and every week so we’ll

Go you know 9% for the last four rounds 9% for last 100 rounds the biggest one is going to be past 24 rounds at 25% and this is of my actual model that I just built so it’s going to grab all those numbers put them together wait them at

This percentage uh and then you know Scotty comes out number one and that does have putting splits included so the number one in this this mixed condition model uh at least this leg of the mixed condition model the rolling report of our actual model Scotty Xander ludvig

Hogi Sam Burns top five paval list Rory SC SC havland still inside the top 10 I want to take a look at hland for a second cuz he this always felt like it was going to be his breakthrough and just never was Cole Klay morawa zot

Taurus and Jake knap Jake knp kind of has the skills that you want for this course so we’ll just kind of take a look at him he’s having another good run this week so that’s sunjay what’s Victor been up to Victor couldn’t chip at Genesis Victor couldn’t hit an approach at

Sentry or AT&T it’s been a you know at least it’s nice to see him get his ball striking back together at Genesis maybe that propels him forward a little bit when we take a look at his history here 10th second after you know a series of

Very poor finishes but making the cut to start his career just gains a lot off the tea and a lot on approach here hopefully whatever clicked at Riviera can continue to click in morawa you know because of he’s so good with his long approaches and he’s so accurate off the

Te did not work out for him a year ago gained over 10 Strokes on approach but the chipping and putting has been atrocious here so maybe a fade for Colin morawa at this course will zorus obviously you know we saw remnants of him getting it back together at Tory

Pines then boom he spiked at the Genesis he’s never figured out these greens at all but the driving and ball striking has been absolutely Stellar for him at this course over his three years the chipping has been bad the last two years but overall someone who’s been relatively good around the greens now

Coming back from injury he was not good but he’s been you know he’s gained over a stroke around the greens the past two starts uh and when we think about this is a I wouldn’t say it’s a major championship type venue uh but at major championships he’s been very good around

The greens in general he’s been very good at putting in general so the harder the course the better it is for will zator so he’s most you know probably gonna end up being a play this week we’ll see with Jake knap as well you know Farmers Mexico Phoenix probably

Going to have another top 20 at least maybe another top five this week at Honda so maybe we just keep riding the Run uh you know every time that he is able to hit driver at of course it’s been going very well Sony doesn’t go as

Well and I don’t know what the hell happened at the AMX but these are the courses where we want him it feels like he’s going to go busto at some point but everything is just working too well right now that maybe you do want to be a

Week early on the bus but I think a lot of people are thinking that themselves so that’s what the model rank is showing us right now we’re going to add that to the mixed condition model beay Hill rolling model add so now we’re going to

Go back we’re going to wait that um I’m going to get rid of this one that’s from last week and so we’ll update it for that and we’ll go to Strokes gained just overall I built just a friendly Strokes gained model that has everything in it

Besides yeah it has everything in it so it’s just general we’re not looking for overall model rank here what we want to do I’m actually going to add TD green to this it doesn’t really matter what it like I’m not using this as a model I’m

Just using this as a see can we add a stat or are we not going to add a stat we’ll just hit cancel on that get out of it um basically what I want to do with The Strokes gain model is take a look at the longer rough we see 100% long rough

Uh and this is kind of akin to those major championships that I talked about they cut down the rough a lot at PGA National this week people were not enthused about that whatsoever but what we can do is just take a look at Strokes gain in the model if just long Sheffer

Xander Rory havin Windam Clark those are your top five it’s pretty good then you got Poston Glover Mora Jagger and Ricky Fowler but what I want to look at more is just Strokes gain in general and take a look at Strokes gain total Sheffer Clark shley havland Rory so I

Want to add this one and we have this over the past 24 rounds of just courses with rough length as long is there anyone that really struggles with this more Dunlap only has four rounds no one cares about that pan Jason day Jason day is one here and at Tori it’s funny that

These courses are now the ones that give him a lot of issues versus earlier in his career when that wasn’t so much the case you see Jenna although he’s in very good form form right now maybe he can click this back yeah you can see just he

He hit The Struggle Bus after his win last year it seems like it’s coming back a little bit though for him he was 10th at this venue last year that was all chipping and putting the approach play is actually a lot better right now if

You can start gaining off the te like he had been throughout the course of last year maybe day is a play his odds will probably get crushed mainly because of what we’ve seen uh from his course history when whenever you have a win somewhere and you’re starting to show

Some form then it’s just going to affect your rods is how it works so let’s go with both we can go well we could do approach to we can take a look at approach so approach Sheffer Glover Xander hubard Hideki Fowler morawa Cole Henley I don’t think huard’s gon to end

Up playing his way into the field he was on the short list to do so you can see all of a sudden off the tea Connors is very good in this he’s very good in approach although the model rank doesn’t have him good overall with all of these

Numbers because his putting is so terrible and His short game is so terrible and they’re overweighted as a part of the model but I’m not concerned about the model because it’s not a real model it’s just so I can see the stats in front of me so what I’m going to do

Here is use ball striking so ball striking in long long rough conditions and add that in so that’s going to be a part of the mixed condition model and we’ll start to weigh that out a little bit and we’ll continue to update this as it goes along uh

Bermuda so we’ll just take both fast and lightning putting those will be two that we go into you can see 32% of the time it’s fast by average stim meter 55% of the time it’s lightning so we’ll just split the difference on those if we go to

Average score over the past 24 rounds pavon in only six rounds is doing quite well so was Jake knap Windam Clark the gala Adam Scott Nikolai hoard is up there Harris English who had a top five at the course last year Max H all of a

Sudden pops up I believe H has been top 10 at each of at each of the past two years of this course didn’t really do much I mean it’s okay ball striking it’s nice to see him turning around a little at Genesis but Arnold Palmer Invitational no in four appearances no

Finish worse than 24th 14th 17th 10th but the approach has been off the chart it’s funny because he actually putts very poorly the past two years and gain almost eight Strokes putting in 2021 it’s funny how that can flip on you so hopefully that ends up being the luk

List factor with this so we’re going to take putting fast and lightning fast and add that to the mixed condition model let’s see where’s our putting here why is that not popping up Strokes game putting oh yeah there it is it’s the very bottom I’m an idiot and can’t

See things so we’re going to add that one in and we’ll wait that a little bit less than both of them and we’ll just keep on rolling with all of this to see how we can end up doing pretty well uh we can add Bermuda fast and

Lightning or we can just do Bermuda by itself uh we’ll try to wait that we’ll wait that a little bit less than the other one CU there’s going to be fewer and we’ll call that 24 rounds again we’ll add putting into the mixed condition model on average for this one

Uh for fast and lightning plus Bermuda we’re going to look at let’s see average we’ll take a look at the average and we’ll take a look at putting and see putam Jake knap again that’s only three rounds for him Brenan Todo Windham Clark and the gala have both persisted through

Both of these green type and green speed so is Adam Scott so is Matthew Fitzpatrick so those are guys guard Xander shafley up there as well poor Bez no one’s going to use Bez next week after everyone used him this week he’s probably going to come second or

Something like that classic Bez uh whenever you whenever he’s like popular and people want to use him never the time to use Christian Baden H when no one wants to use him at like a longer course weirdly that might be the way to go about it speed has like had a lot of

Success at this course the past two years I think it’s back toback top 10 we back-to-back top 20s for him wonder how he’s done it you chipping putting and great approach in 2020 21 yeah T4 T4 in his two appearances ever at this tournament funny with spe because that’s

This is not the type of venue where you think that he would do well considering he can be so erratic off the tea but you know it’s been a pretty he’s only played three times so far this season you know a third a sixth and a 39th so it hasn’t

Been all doom and gloom for Jordan spe here so I I like that a lot so maybe spe is another one that we can get to this week just based on some of the peripheral stats that we’ve been looking at so far so we can add in some very

Generic ones when we kind of look at the overall course conditions uh we just cleared all of the filters and we’re just still looking at past 24 rounds what we can do now is take a look at over 7,400 yards which is played to 63%

Of the time and will play at this year and we’ll extend the sample a little bit we’ll go past 50 rounds for that one to get an overall sample that’s a little bit higher uh we what is past 74 ludick Oar only has 13 Rounds on courses over

7,400 yards he has not played them all that well I wonder if the average for him ends up being a little bit better let’s see a oberg yeah minus per I wonder what courses those are you can always click on the rounds to see what courses that’s actually pulling from but he played

Really well at Farmers okay so Sentry played poorly Valero back in the day in 2022 so he just hasn’t played a lot of these events so hopefully Farmers was an indication that he can handle these pretty well some of these tougher courses so uh we put in Strokes gain

Total for courses over 7,400 yards on the past 50 rounds so maybe that’s enough you know what we should probably throw wind into this just a little bit uh so we’ll clear all of the parameters that we had set on the left hand side and we’ll go

To what do we want to say scoring relative to par it’s either easy or hard very and it’s so much wind related so maybe we’ll just throw wind in here uh and try to do it that way so windy AF and moderate wind we’ll put those two factors together turn those two filters

On and we’ll do the past yeah 50 rounds sounds pretty good who are the best Strokes gain total sheffler Xander Rory so those those are the three names that continue to pop up no shocker in that and hland is up there as well you see

Fitz gets a big boost spe gets a big boost Windham Clark starts to enter the conversation there’s Lowry there’s Connors there’s Scott Once Again Sam Burns still up there H and zalot Taurus continue and these aren’t just pulling from the most recent things that we’ve seen these are longer term of Just Wind

Related so we can see moderate wind and windy AF uh you can see Sentry TOUR Championship like some of the stuff for Scotty Sheffer goes back to 2022 so it is trying to tell us the story of the past two years basically of how this works so we’re going to select Strokes gain

Total uh actually we’re going to select Strokes gained yeah Strokes gain total we’re going to add that in uh and it will tell you in your mixed condition model how a lot of this works so p 50 win moderate windy AF so we’re going to put that at one level and then we’re

Going to get rid of moderate and just do windy AF which is 17 miles an hour or higher uh probably good for The Showdown if you’re building Showdown lineups or trying to find some weekend numbers maybe one of the ways that you want to go look at that so it’s not a huge

Sample past 50 round or that is a huge sample we’ll go past 24 rounds of windy AF just because a lot of people don’t have enough rounds to qualify because you don’t play a lot of rounds in those types of conditions this is one of the only courses where that happens see

Justin Thomas Scotty Sheffer Harris English Lowry sunjay hadwin Klay there’s Klay again there’s Connors again there’s spe again Hideki all of a sudden enters the conversation H still kicking around Burns and zator is still kicking around there’s hoard there’s Rory there’s Adam Scott again Tom Kim makes a big leap up

So we’ll go Strokes gain total and add that into the mixed condition model for Wy AF and that’s probably what we need to do here so we have the rolling model that’s going to be the most important thing you know what we can throw in we can throw in some course history into

This uh and we’ll go past 12 rounds so past three years at this course or past three times each of the players have played it and we’ll just type in Bay heel Bay Hill apply course filters and again we’ll take Strokes gain total or we could take Strokes gain ball striking

Since we’ve seen that been so the past three years of this course Connors Sheffer Grio hom morawa zalot Tores havin Klay Rory cam young Ben Anne are your best players in just driving and approach play Strokes gained overall from people’s past three turns here Sheffer Connors melroy Harris English

Jordan spe Keegan Fitz kittama that’s only in one appearance Chris Chris Kirk Max H Victor havin Patrick hlay cam young there’s Jason da pulling up again then a little bit more down hey there’s Bez good for Bez zat torus Fleetwood aberer in his one start oberg I’m just going to screw that up

Perpetual I think Adam Scott is somewhere just you know slightly above average but he was the name that continued to pop up that’s been a constant theme through the modeling so far I’m trying not to get sucked into betting Adam Scott this week uh just because he just doesn’t win all that

Often but like a top 20 play on him considering he’ll probably be like 60 to1 might play hell that’ll probably pay what like two to one that might be the way to do it on the best bet show this week where if Carson young can find

Himself inside the top 40 or 30 whatever it was I’m going to sweep the board cuz Meo came back on Patrick Reed had me looking like a fool the first round of live when he actually played really well and then all of a sudden it reverted back the other way

And he was just terrible in the second two rounds and Meo passed him by one stroke on the final day to cash that head tohe head for the bronze pick Lowry I think is going to cash the top 20 for us as The Silver pick we’ll see if

Carson young can get it done on Sunday for us so did I add that in or not now I can’t remember let’s see no wrong button edit MCM so no I don’t have course history in there but I will will put course history in Strokes gain total

From just Bay Hill past 12 rounds now we’re cooking with gas here in the mixed condition model so the way that we’re going to try to factor this out is so the rolling report I think is going to be the most important thing that we have we’ll wait that at

25% uh the past 24 rounds ball striking in a long rough you know we’ll put that down around 177% and we’ll put that we’ll put the course history at right around 15% so everything else that we’ve had so we have two putting ones so fast and lightning past 24 no surface

Indicated we’ll wait that at 9% and we’ll wait the other one at 7% that is fast lightning plus Bermuda courses over 7,400 yards will give that the same Merit as Strokes gain ball striking so we’ll call that 15% moderate windy AF uh wind well we don’t want to factor this in too much

Because it’s all like random courses and random samples but we’ll weit both those at 5% each and then course history at 15% I will include this in my newsletter post on Sunday evening if you want to get your research on it again Mayo media substack free to join please go do that

And we’ll update the mixed condition model to see how we’re doing now so we’ll reload reload the Bay Hill one and throw that in so now we can compare model rank versus mix condition model rank so MCM versus the actual model to see if you bear rates out very poorly in this so

The model rank has oh cuz I still have beill on that’s why stupid me disregard let’s see oar is second in the modeling I was like yeah that’s a that’s a weird jump for him buddy is 18th in the mixed condition hogi is number one past 12 rounds buddy is 26th mixed condition

Paval three in the model 28th in the mixed condition you have sha Sheffer and shafley fourth and fifth they’re one and two in the mixed condition model we can do this the other way too and look at the mixed condition that we’ve just gener erated over overall from

Everything we’ve seen it doesn’t take the 12 rounds into play it takes into the rounds that we’ve indicated in the mixed condition model only the model itself is the past 12 rounds so we can look at mixed condition sheffler shafley Rory havin Connors top five Connors did

Make the cut at Honda so that’s one thing to look at Klay H spe Keegan Scott Fleetwood Fitz zat Taurus Burns English I think this is the range that we might want to be in here Harrison English has not been playing all that great let’s

See I remember I had him at Genesis he played better at Genesis he”s been playing better overall uh although a lot of it’s been putting and chipping the approach play was a little bit better and the driving’s been better the past two times out he was bad at Farmers he

Was bad at Pebble Beach in general with the approach but it’s nice to see him click a little bit more back up that way so he rates out well in the mixed condition but he’s 58th in the short-term model rank maybe that won’t dissuade me uh where do we see the G

20th and 17th morawa 19th and 22nd oberg 18th and 2nd Chris Kirk 17th and 19th so two guys that are pretty good other than that you see Eric Cole is 30th in the MCM but 11th in the model rank he’s going to take a hit once we load in the

Stats from PGA National I would tend to think Ben an and Jake knap both rate very highly in the model itself but very poorly in the mixed condition modeling a lot of that for Jake Napp will have to do of him just not having the required

Rounds at a lot of places or one really bad round out of like three in terms of something and that’s skewing what’s going on with him in the mixed condition model benan you know he has the required rounds to really fit into this stuff it’s funny because kittama mixed

Condition just doesn’t do well I probably should just take a look at in general just Wendy AF who are the best players uh and we’ll do that over the longer term of past 24 rounds and go to Just Strokes game in general to see who

It is is uh Strokes gain total windy AF pass 24 rounds Thomas English sheffler so English is someone I could see making a run on the weekend tread water get yourself through make the Run spe and Connor’s kind of the same way I actually thought that kittama would be up there

He’s someone who just played really well at Coastal courses over the course of time but now he’s actually quite near the bottom of the field in this kind of thing it’s funny how perception and stats kind of play with your mind a little bit uh but he has done very well

At Coastal courses maybe it’s just they haven’t been super windy in those maybe they’ve been of moderate maybe they’ve been a moderate wind not windy windy wind of 17 windy windy wind listen to me just rambling at this point of 17 milph or higher now it’s time to guess the

Odds for the arand Palmer Invitational once again around 70 players top 50 in ties make the cut everyone besides Tony Fina who is eligible to be playing in this tournament at Bay Hill is playing in this tournament at Bay Hill so I actually think they’re going to be very

Similar to what we saw at the Genesis invit ational in terms of odds so at the open Scotty Sheffer is likely to be the favorite I have him at 7 to1 I have Rory at 8 to1 those two as the defined favorites in this tournament maybe if

Rory doesn’t do anything Sunday at PGA National then he shrinks a little to like nine maybe 10 to one or if he storms back and shoots a 61 and wins then all of a sudden he’s the favorite at six and a half to one but seven and

Eight for Scotty and Rory they’re going to be the two favorites after that I have Xander at 14 Victor at 16 Klay at 8 those will be the next three for this course in terms of the betting odds Xander will take a little bit of a hit

Due to bad course form uh coming in but just based on what we saw from his Strokes gained and his you know four top 10 and five starts so far this season or was it five top 10 and five stars whatever it is he’s playing Great Golf

Right now that this should be a spot for him so he will be the third favorite in my mind into the 20s I got morawa and H at 20 to1 ludvig at 22 to1 Thomas and spe both at 25 to one and then I have Fleetwood zot torus and Lowry all at 35

To1 Fitzpatrick Tom Kim Sam Burns that’s probably too high for Tom Kim to tell you the truth you know what I’ll make Tom Kim 45 we’ll go with Tom we go with Fitz Burns and cam young at 40 to1 Tom Kim and the gala at 45 to1 and Jason day

At 50 to1 per usual there’s probably a name that I’ve missed that’s going to breach in here but I do think we’re going to see it’s probably Windam Clark Windam Clark’s probably going to be like 4 5 to one as an opener and Russell Henley just gets a lot of credit every

Single week anyway uh no matter what the tournament that he might be 45 50 to one at open then no one will bet him and then he’ll be 60 to one by the time that you know first te comes off on Thursday but that’s where I’m going with the

Guest the odds right now but oh no we are not done because we are still talking about the Puerto Rico open the Grand Reserve Golf Club Coco Beach 756 yards 72 is par there’s 12 w holes with water in play there’s 63 sand traps a very flat course past palum greens Nico

Etaria one by two over AE batia at minus 21 a year ago other than that we have Ryan brem won by six over Max mcgrievy in 20122 uh that’s kind of an outlier Brennan Grace he’s on live now he won by one over Johnny Vegas in 2021 Victor havland won in

2020 won in 2020 um that was by won over Josh Teter the year before that party mty trainer so bombers who can putt are what you’re looking for here but this is one of the best Fields I think I’ve ever seen in P this might be the best alternate field

Event ever in terms of how strong it is and we’ll rebuild a model I still have my Bay Hill one in here right now I’m going to play this one more of gut feel honestly uh what I’m looking at for Puerto Rico right now I’m going to go

With Carson young again uh Carson Young led by three and four shots after round one and round two last year he shot back toback one unders on the weekend and that just wasn’t good enough etaria ended up passing him OE putting a run just to lose to Nico but it’s been a

Very good run for Carson young at the moment the approach play continues to be good he puted really well on pass palum uh in Mexico a few weeks back I think that he’s maybe he’s not apparently he’s not even in the field so probably can’t

Bet him I just assume that he was going to be the cut Line’s been even par the past few years Daniel Burger is in the field uh he was 2 in his only ever appearance here in 2019 Nate Lashley who let me double check that he’s in the

Field Lashley yeah Nasty Nate Lashley uh was T3 a year ago he was T8 in 2019 T3 in 20120 is back-to-back t3s he has a top 10 streak at this tournament which is kind of funny to think about is Vegas playing no Vegas isn’t playing I would

Have bet Vegas as well Chan Kim if he’s playing is another one yeah I will bet Chan Kim next week in this tournament Michael Kim as well you can see The Strokes gain total leading into this tournament is very good he’s been bad the past two weeks but he had

T16 uh in this tour I know he was fifth in this tournament last year t16 before uh he’s been very good in this tournament over the years we can see if we go to the tournament history who has been good and who hasn’t been good uh in Coco Beach over the

Years grias has not been good trainer hasn’t been good since he won imagine being second worst in the field in Strokes gain total with a win to your credit counting as a part of that that’s insane terer Lashley brem Garnett Brandon woo Brandon Woo is a player with

Top 10 in each of his past two starts a T3 and t7 did not play in this tournament last year overall Lashley Brandon woo Bryce Garnett Ryan brem Michael Kim Cameron Percy and Vince Wy all have at least two top 20 finishes in the past four years so if you’re looking

For course history here against weak Fields that’s a potential way that we can look at things uh but we can kind of build out what we want to see this week we’re not going to go too in depth on what’s Happening Here uh and I do have

It says that bazen Hout is in the field I guess he’s technically qualified for both uh right now we’ll see where he ends up going to but he would be the best right now and we can kind of we can scroll down on the left-and side to see

What’s really going on because there’s no shotlink data from this course so we only have the stuff to really go off of it plays easy or average that’s something that we can throw in the mix condition model we can apply those filters so we can build out a new

Mexican I mean I’m not going to build out a new mix condition model cuz I don’t want to wipe my one away for beill the one that I care about the most but if we just put that in scoring relative easy to power past 24 rounds on easy or

Average courses Michael Kim Bez Ryu Kelly craft uh Ben Griffin Chan Kim is up there as well at number six Vagas Brandon woo once again so maybe let’s see here Chan Kim Michael Kim Brandon woo but I mentioned before that there are like a lot of good players in the field this

Time around and we can kind of take a look at that I mean bombers who can putt especially on slow surfaces are probably going to have an edge this week reload the page here for us Puerto Rico field there we go and I have my Bay Hill is my

Default that’s why it keeps coming back up and we just take a look at scoring stats or we can take a look at Strokes gain stats overall but you have a lot of let’s see here Aaron Ry is playing mentioned champ Kim Daniel Burger is going to be in this field Adam long

Kramer Hickock ra Rasmus hoard is coming in um there are some other Euro players who are in the field as well Victor Perez is playing Robert McIntyre is playing in this field probably a really good look for Bobby Mack again uh I didn’t bet him in Mexico he was great I

Bet him at Honda he made the cut but it wasn’t you know doing anything for us etar is actually putting in a decent run at Honda right now as we speak uh we’ll see if people go back to Sam Stevens the king of the plus 7400 yard course Eric

Burns Eric Burns was someone I had kind of identified earlier in the year let’s see how he’s been doing the putting was bad but you know the approach was good in Mexico so since his return from injury he’s been you know he’s made every cut so far so DraftKings wise

There’s probably not going to be like good tournaments for this event but someone to look at gup doing well in Honda right now uh someone else who just absolutely mashes it off the tea gracer uh shout out to Ben Coy for tipping grer this week higo another one just kind of

Bombs Ken putt from time to time indicot who won Q school had played a little bit over in the Middle East along with his PGA Tour card is someone else that we can look at as well big Norm semi CWA back in the field this time around Long

Dong Paul ban Aaron Wise I inquired on Twitter about what the hell happened to Aaron Wise we haven’t seen him since good Lord when was the last time we saw Aaron Wise we saw him last year at the US Open that was the last time he played he was horrendous but you know

Guys have come back off injury I wouldn’t expect it week one for him but another interesting name to kind of go along with here so maybe you know it’s not the world’s greatest field but for an alternate event it’s much better than maybe we think of in our minds it’s

Gonna be worth paying attention to so we have Brandon woo Chan Kim maybe we can dig up someone else here maybe toasty toasty might be the way to play this one we see how we we’ll see you putell and pass palum greens let’s just do that off

The Hop we don’t have a lot like we we don’t have a lot of information from these tournaments in particular be it Coralis in the Dominican Republic in Puerto Rico we only have just total Strokes gained because those are the only ones that we got uh for this one

But past palum what we can do is we can go coo Beach we can go corales corales uh probably not El Chan El cardonal we can throw into there and vidanta uh just the past pal greens that you generally see on the PGA tour to see

If there is anyone who just plays those really well in just terms of Strokes gain total since we only have the putting stats from vidanta and your random other pass palum course but if we do take a look at who’s played these courses well what I have past 24 up

Burger is the best now it’s this course and he came in second so obviously that’s going to work out pretty well for him Aaron wi is a second Rasmus hoard Robert McIntyre um are the next ones really maybe it was Nikolai hoard who played in one of these Jabron events last year it

Was no caral no this is just from carral because uh Rasmus let’s see here yeah Rasmus 18th at Valero or sorry sixth at corales last year that’s what’s being included for him what else do we got on the go in terms of what we want to look at here um pass

Palum oh oh that’s because it’s just pass palum that I have clicked on so let’s click off of that for a second and just look at these courses in general uh yeah Brandon woo past 24 ranked the best Lashley obviously and he has all 24 rounds to count Harry Hall Cameron

Champ okay let’s go to the average here so we’ve seen Brandon woo and Chan Kim pop up twice uh Burger wise Rasmus hoard if we’re just looking at average average per round Strokes gting total Robert McIntyre let’s see the Rasmus one yeah corales pakan was very good there

Last year so Chan Kim Brandon wo Sam Stevens is another one Cameron Champ does pretty well Harry Hall hor campio in his four rounds in Mexico uh did pretty well I think that’s what it was for yeah Mexico um who else Michael Kim

Is up inside the top 20 so is gdup so is Damon Damon had a good run at corales once upon a time you can see Martin trainer although at this course in particular not great overall the multiple courses over the the past 24 is actually gaining over a stroke total per

Round uh so those are just kind of the names toasty is where there’s toasty he has eight rounds he’s ging over a half stroke per round so that’s not bad by in large and he had a really one really bad two really bad rounds in Mexico and one

Really great round in Mexico and that was his final round uh in Mexico last year he missed the cut this time around had one bad round one good round so he’s been alternating a lot was bad in Puerto Rico two years ago but I just kind of

Like the way that he’s been playing uh just because he mashes the ball we see these really low rounds he has no results really to speak of that matter he had a top 10 in Mexico not this time around the year before but other than that it’s been bad news for him but

You’d think that he would gain a ton off the te because he’s played longer courses pretty well so far in terms of having Spike rounds that’s what we look at a lot of the times see if there’s a spike percentage so if we set let’s say

We want guys that gain over two strokes per round and see who pops up in that that percentage so well if we do past 24 rounds it’s da8 points so who’s good out of this mix uh it’s just a lot of real old dudes who probably accomplished

These Feats ages ago um and they’re at 8% so Spike percentage the best in the field okay there we are 75% of his rounds Rasmus hoard and only four rounds same as Aon y so over 56% of his rounds Cameron Champ so in nine of his 16

Rounds he has gained more than two strokes total on courses like this Chan Kim four of his eight he’s done that you got Parker cudy Parker Cy might win me that $150 gpp this week so shout out Parker cooy better than your brother Pearson but he’s at 50% so was campio ET

Aaria in more of a sample at 16 rounds is at 15% Bobby Mack only four rounds at two Sam Stevens 5 out of 10 at 50% Daniel Burger two out of four so a lot of small sample guys the best longer sample guys is Brandon woo who just I

Guess dominates pass palum putting but he’s at 46% over 24 rounds brem who’s won this tournament at 46% over 24 rounds as well Adam long Nate Lashley Wes Bryan very good KH Lee I can’t believe khlee is now in these tournaments Justin Su they’re all at 40%

Harry Hall Joel Damon Campos Gip uh two out of six rounds has a spike percentage of over 2% I was going to try to guess the odds for this tournament but I have no clue hoard is probably it’s even the quote unquote bad hoard but Rasmus has

Been very good so far but him he would be the guy that I’d be looking as probably is there someone else who would be the favorite I mean if Carson young joins the field maybe he ends up being the favorite who knows Daniel Burger will probably be the favorite and he’ll

Probably be like 1820 to1 but again Chan Kim for me Brandon woo for me they’ll probably be Brandon W will probably 28 to1 Chan Kim might like be 45 50 60 it all just depends and different books are probably going to have different values on a lot of these guys for the Puerto

Rico open we see it with these alt events no one really puts in that big of an effort to come up with really good odds they tend to come out a little bit later than everything else but oh you know what I’m actually going to click back over to Fantasy National for a

Second because what I did want to look at I want to clear all filters and just get off of those courses uh sort of the the pass palum swing and I wanted to look at driving distance driving distance plus putting and just see you know I’m just going to build that

Model very quickly we’re going to go driving distance and putting those are the two things that I’m going to throw into it and just to take a look driving distance putting let’s wait driving distance that’s probably a little bit more prevalent we’ll go 65 35 so 65 driving distance 35 and

Just C past 24 rounds gup hego champ p and cie toasty is up there inside the top five Kevin dhy I feel like he’s like been playing well he was in one of the featured groups this week I think he was playing with nap and someone else I

Don’t know he’s 38th in Mexico 50th of the farmers dude’s like not bad no clue who this guy was but in Mexico he kind of lit it up a little bit can’t chip to save his life but I’m not really too concerned about chipping here if he can

Putt on the pass palum greens then we might be in business with Kevin dhy uh nor big Norm big Panda he’s up there as well with the driving distance overall over that time Justin maybe it’s time for Justin MJ Duffy is another one this is where the fantasy

National simulator uh when that gets run when everything is out is probably something to look at and the season long planner for these events is super huge when you see who’s committed to it and who’s not committed to it um in terms of the players that you see up on the

Screen when we do our best ball drafts for Underdog this is going to be a very important feature for us once we get into the Myrtle Beach Classic and the CJ cup to see who’s committed to some of these events and who’s not committed and

Who played in them last year to give us a sense of who might actually be in the fields for these things because we’re going to have to figure that out after for the major season one it’s not going to be that big of a deal because it’s

Only the majors that pop up there let’s run this back to past 50 to see if we get any sort of different results over this time and then we can take a look at the overall rolling report as well uh this one’s just labeled Strokes gain I

Should probably change the name of that new model um driving and putting that’s nowhere close to how you spell that driving and putting there if I take my time and do it then we can do it together pass 50 rounds uh let’s see let’s reload that in because I changed the name sometimes

It gets a bit wonky we’re so putting everything over uh and we’ll go driving and putting pass 50 rounds Boop and see who gets up there so driving distance you know it’s gdup it’s champ it’s Callum Taran maybe Callum Taran NJ Duff higo Derrik erns Matty Schmidt someone I

Liked earlier in the year who had a nice run through the fall dhy is up there as well that’s only in 16 rounds Pon Cy Rasmus hoard Sam Stevens so that’s probably where you want to be looking these guys that absolutely mash the ball now you’ve seen someone like Nate

Lashley do really well so it’s either pure accuracy or lots of distance lots of Distance by and large is where you want to yeah you can see him putting Su higo has been putting really well Ben Griffin’s been putting really well Victor Perez Victor Perez might be the

Look here but he might play himself into Bay Hill um if he ends up winning Sunday at PGA National let’s see if we can do the rolling model with driving and putting just to see what that gives us nah we can’t there it is I wonder if we can amend that around

Yeah with only two stats it’s not letting us do it we’d have to throw something else but that’s just where we’re at again guess the odds it’s going to be out out of this world so it was a brief preview of Puerto Rico some of the names that

I’m on Brandon woo and Chan Kim Michael Kim those three to start probably heo again just to see how we’re doing uh but I’ll listen to some other people this week to have my some more insightful takes on what’s Happening down at that course that was the quick preview

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