Noonan and Ron take a look at the opening odds board for the artist formerly known as the Honda Classic.

Good morning everyone Welcome Back betsws Golf here for our first look at the cognizant classic uh PGA National I think is probably the easier way to talk about this uh the course does not change though we will dance through sponsors here and uh it’s kind of a historical

Thing on the PJ tour artist formerly known as the Honda Classic joined here as always by the man himself Ron Claus PJ splits 101 what’s going on buddy hey doing well um did the um nap versus bami battle have you on the edge of your seat

Uh I don’t I know some people were enthralled you know I know people have different opinions uh but uh you know it’s good to see someone new win and nap definitely is a perfect fit for that course um but like last week is just it’s a perfect example of why golf is so

Volatile because you know you you look at the leaderboard and it was like you know playing DraftKings or betting and it’s just like wow don’t have that guy don’t have that guy and down the list so it was a frustrating week from that perspective but I guess that’s probably

What you need to expect in events like that yeah I think part of it too I was thinking of it on uh in the weekend you we’d only had two iterations of that event so you know we felt I feel like still looking nap I mean absolute bomber

So it was just harder to feel that we were really set in terms of like what matters there um because I thought we saw a little bit of a different leader board in terms of you know not just strictly bombers which is a little

Tricky uh I had twed it out you and I had talked about it too like just before we started last Monday uh on an odd screen that we used I saw an appp available at 80 clicked into the book and the book hadn’t actually posted odds

Yet so I don’t know if it was a state-by-state thing or whatnot but uh I had a little bit of like you know nap at 80 was interesting to me uh nap at 45 which he was everywhere else part of it also felt like oh that’s a great number

That’s going to be gone very soon couldn’t get the mental hurdle of seeing the 80 and then taking the next step to bet the 4 5 was something I couldn’t do and then yeah fomo I just I left I went and hit balls at the range instead of uh

Watching the the end of it because I couldn’t uh I couldn’t take it so it’s it’s so hard to land the plane this year right so then you feel like all right that guy was interesting we limited events we hadn’t seen it much um it’s

Really hard to kind of get there and the handicap at 45 and you know Kudos it felt like a community win so like we were on the sideline to something that a lot of people were on too so yeah uh we’ll move we’ll move move forward to uh

To PGA National this week um it just this got like bastardized last year in the signature event role right this was stuck in the middle of five Signature Events we had two in the front and two in the back and no one came to I think

One of the better courses on tour an event that I love to watch I think there’s it’s a great finishing stretch uh the risk reward on these some of these holes the water that comes into play then now we are in the Florida swing which which I think is definitely

An interesting part of the calendar here uh what are some just major things at the very very top before we dig into any of the you numbers um that we should be kind of looking at or any any guys you want to highlight that are just like hey

These are some Florida guys maybe we’ll touch on that at the top through the rabbit hole I think a couple changes people need to be aware of and some people are being a little taken by surprise but you know the the par 41th hole has been

Lengthened by 20 yards and so it’s been converted from very difficult kind of longish 510 yard par 4 to you know 530 yards it’s going to be more scorable even it’s not going to change really the difficulty of the course itself but you know you’re probably adding around four

Shots to the you know the course is going to get a little easier in that perspective um also looking at it a little deeper you know Fairways have been widened a little bit this year so this had one of the narrower Fairways around 30 yards wide on average um so a

Little bit wider than that so maybe a little easier off the te um the rough is 2 and A4 Ines this year instead of two and a half and you know reading more about kind of the weather in this area of Florida so far this year so because

Of how wet and cold it’s been so far the rough is pretty much 100% Rye overseed so very little Bermuda is coming through now we do have Bermuda greens obviously but the rough is not Bermuda this week um so a little easier around the greens from that perspective um it kind of it

Does kind of vary from year to year based on how warm it gets and you know there has always been a r overseed with Bermuda tends to come through a little more when it’s warmer uh but yeah like you said this is a very interesting course you know you got 15 holes with

Water danger um and so you’re always kind of on the edge of your seat you know when you just look at pictures you go back and watch you know you know clips from this course and there’s just water it’s seemings on every single hole and you know yeah it’s a it’s a course

Where you probably one of the toughest ball striking courses on tour um especially when you get past 100 50 yards on approach and you know a lot of people you know you look at this it’s only you know 7,145 yards and so you think oh short

Course it’s going to be similar to the other short courses but it’s a little different just because um there’s a lot of tight dog legs there’s a lot of forc layups um it’s a less than driver course off the te and so you really don’t have that many wedges um I think

It’s something like around 65% of approach shots are 125 to 200 yards um which is well above the average and so it’s a little bit different not your standard short course um but yeah it is all around like it’s the second last year was a little easier but when you go

Back five years it is the second toughest annual course on tour only behind uh Augusta National so that’ll give you kind of an idea um of how difficult it plays here and you know right around 10 under par you know I’d expect that to go up to maybe around 13

14 under this year yeah cut line was you know again in an easier year last year cutline was plus one so you’re still able to you know make the weekends being overpar so you mentioned sounds like they’re trying to make it a little bit easier I still think you see probably

You know low to mid teens in terms of where you need to get to uh to win this event which I think is interesting and again a better field overall too where we have like 13 in the top 40 or so um you know last year again it was just a

Really tough event because of where it fell in the schedule was really tough to you know play five weeks in a row and essentially what people were being asked to do comparatively to to where we at this year with you know Mexico being shifted down that kind of forced itself

Into like a natural bye for players as we kind of shift into this Florida swing where some events people want to play you know people want to play API you obviously players that are available and eligible to play at Saw Grass are going to be playing at the players and stuff

Like that so this is a better I think you know starter to get you ready for what’s coming here on the uh on the East Coast so uh let’s dig in here and just take a quick look here at the uh opening odds board courtesy of our friends over at

Fandel they obviously shop around uh for the most part at this time we’re getting majority of books posted but Rory here as the favorite six to one that’s a little bit higher at other places cam young at 20 Russell Henley uh just guy that fits a lot of these

Florida tracks we get these you know Georgia Bulldogs uh you know staka Keith Mitchell a lot of these uh these guys that have played pretty well Henley has won this event all the way back in 2014 but he has won it uh Matthew Fitzpatrick’s played well in Florida in

His career minwu Lee Tom Kim JT Poston all at 30 Eric Cole kind of the darling of this event last year where you know it was Cole and Kirk down the stretch uh Cole 33 here on FanDuel sunjay has been a uh you know Bermuda Florida guys had

Some success uh and won this back this back in 2020 35 pretty big number for sunjay though you know form has not been great uh Shane Lowry another guy like you know you typically would see this as like one of the first events for a lot of the Euros

That call Orlando and the Florida Jupiter area home so you get a lot of these uh these guys that have played well and pretty familiar Shane Lowry is one of those guys uh he’s available here at 35 is kind of the top of the board so yeah obviously shop around your openers

Here on a Monday morning because uh it’s kind of where you will find some discrepancies in the pricing Market things kind of flatten up for the most part as we get into like Monday evening Tuesday morning so uh it is a difficult time to jump in if you have not

Handicapped uh the event yet but again Ron’s preview you can check out on the on the site over at bsbs golf uh but we’re going to dig into the rabbit hole this morning it’s probably why you’re here we want to get our thoughts on some of the data and

Stuff that matters for the uh the Honda Classic here so let’s jump in again you can get some other stuff we have some Evergreen articles that are highlighted here here on the site as well uh you know Ron did some of this work in the uh

In the offseason just get a sense of Bermuda verse non bermu courses and who performs well West Coast versus the rest of the year uh first round versus fourth round scoring and some stuff that maybe you want to look at at the top of the leaderboard on a uh on Thursday uh

There’s some data there for you as well or you could just go into the rabbit hole and chop it up if you are not familiar this is a uh customizable PGA stat database that allows you to do any you could possibly imagine with this uh

Data uh and I think it tells a better story than some of the other stuff you’ve probably been familiar with out there uh pretty easy to use but let’s jump into it Ron uh give folks a sense of what we want to look at here uh and

Let’s go you know I want I challenge you a little bit into some of the stuff that you talk about being off the board you mentioned less than driver of course um that’s unique and that’s something that we can look at uh what do you think is valuable you know Florida

Bermuda splits what do you want to kind of get into and show the fol folks this morning so really quick my partner here Ryan Nan is currently sitting at 99,999 followers now I was told he has a big prize for his 10,000th follower I do

Not that is that that is wide open right now to anybody who wants to take that 10,000 spot so just throwing that out there um no yeah you’re you’re you’re definitely correct um he uh this course when you get into just how it’s structured how the holes are set up um

On the rabbit hole we have less than driver um I think that’s a big thing this week because um you know it does you know off the tea with all the water you know you want someone definitely who’s accurate so accuracy is very important this week um and so that is

Definitely one thing that I’ll be having in every single one of my models so yeah if you go down you see you know off the tea club and select less than driver um I also think you know when you get into some of the other kind of splits that

You mentioned there um you know this course is in Florida and so definitely part of the Florida swing so you know we can go that route where you look at the event season and that was one of the tweets you had yesterday that that was a

Really good one you know when you just look at if you just want to look at courses in Florida you know you can select by state you can select by the season so different routes you could go with that one um and so yeah I think

Those are two big ones and you know also we could get into you know scoring conditions difficult and very difficult um but yeah there’s there’s a lot that we can get into here um but I definitely agree that you know with ball striking being so important um just kind of

Taking a little angle at you know other less than driver courses and even if you want to look at um less than driver and then just look at off the tea itself look at who does well an approach um and these these types of courses as well

Yeah so I like this exercise around because I think this is something that should lead you to like I don’t think the rabbit hole is going to give you the answers to the to the test but what it should do is spark some interest in

Terms of where else do I want to look in doing my research now I pop in here um you know going going into the filter by condition section and again you can see here there are a ton of ways to chop up this data some unique things that we

Have that you will not find anywhere else is this off the tea Club U and this is something that Ron has done by hands um there’s no like you know mixup of what is capturing this data this is you know charted by Ron captured and and

Broken down by Ron less than driver is I think an edge now again kind of want to look especially for some of the stuff confirmation bias in a sense uh look at this group when I search Strokes gains total on less than driver off the te this is

This feels like PGA National uh Shane Lowry Eric Cole Russell Henley Alex noren Denny McCarthy Justin Rose Daniel Burger Adam senson Taylor pendrith minw Lee um you know Hors has had some great ball striking here obviously you know putting is a different thing Rory hasn’t

Been here in a while but has won here uh hubard Fitz uh this is a this feels like a there’s some there there to me when I search this and again once you’ve you know selected this you can look at any of these you know category Strokes gting

Off the te uh specifically again sunjay has won here Hayden Buckley has played pretty well here so you know Tyler Duncan was in the top five here last year so like there are um some cories to previous leaderboards when we start to break this down the Florida stuff

Matters to me so I think there’s some overlap to what we see at some of the other Florida courses um inisbrook Saw Grass um you know API difficult scoring conditions a lot of water uh right I’m not saying that they’re all the same course but I do think that you know

Sometimes we talked about this I think a couple weeks ago we wanted to do this for California my push back there was like those there’s some courses there that are just wildly different um it’s really hard to like try and draw a lot out of

Like Pebble and Tor uh or like you know PGA West like they’re just vastly different different where I think there’s these are kind of all playing in a similar space I think it’s a little bit more interesting so let’s back out and we’ll look at this um you can go

Here into course region you can literally go into courses and select all the courses as well but course region is allowing you to do this in a u one click way we’ll apply this uh filter and let’s back up the time frame here well this is

Actually the tweet that I sent was the last two years so get a decent sample of Florida golf for most of these guys let put a eight round minimum so we get guys that have at least played twice um look at some guys that have performed well in

Florida over the last two years again some confirmation bu Shane Lowry again at the top Chris Kirk winner of this event last year Justin Su uh who you know performed pretty well um in these spots seaka uh winner here and has been in the mix Daniel Burger who you

Know back you know saw a little bit of burger in California wasn’t great Burger’s not usually great in California anyway uh you know some of the Tina green stuff was decent on and around the green wasn’t uh but that’s typically a strength of his and I feel it should

Probably be better there on Bermuda and you could see here you know Burger is getting us a pretty small sample we can back out and look at some other stuff but you know short game uh on Bermuda here in Florida is uh something that burger does well Davis Riley you know we

Woned inisbrook a couple years ago there that’s he’s not playing particularly good golf uh but yeah again has done well in Florida uh Matthew Fitz Russell Henley again uh and then Rory and cam which makes a ton of sense he also get get Keith Mitchell uh some of that

Florida stuff there too so I think those are really interesting things I’m gonna add this to a mixed condition model just so we can show folks what that looks like uh I’ll do the same I’ll go back and do the less than driver stuff because I thought that that was uh

Impactful too just to show people what that looks like when you build up a model on a site uh what other stats are key that you’re honing in on this week yeah so along with you know scoring conditions obviously you can select you know since it is in the very difficult

Bucket you know but if you wanted to broaden that out a little bit you know you could go difficult as well um we definitely have course length here where it’s definitely on the shorter side um and so not not super short so you know what I like to do sometimes just to make

Sure I’m getting enough sample for some of these is is I’ll go very short short and then even average and what that does is that at least takes out all the long courses and so you know it’s just a just a way to look at it uh maybe a little broader

Perspective um water danger so we have that filter and this is definitely um the high category if we had very high it would be at the very top because it does have um the most water holes on tour U and then obviously you know when you

Want to get into the greens um you know we’ve got Bermuda greens and another one this week that you know I don’t I don’t mess with often is green firmness and that’s something I’m waiting on a little bit because typically these are firm every single year but with all the rain

They’ve had uh it’s like been over N9 Ines so far this year you know just kind of waiting to hear some OnCourse reports uh from some people down there and you know how firm they actually are but typically they do get you know pretty firm here uh and

So that is another one to kind of monitor throughout the week uh and then just I guess I’ll kind of close with this as far as for the rabbit hole but you know when you get into you know on the very bottom um of that filter

Section is you can actually look off the te you can look on approach and and with this being you know the actual difficult the most difficult course to gain Strokes on approach you know this is another handy one where you can you know just get into some of you know whether

You’re looking at Augusta National or some of these other really tough courses um just to kind of get a picture of how players have performed in the past on the air um and there’s there’s a there’s a couple other ones um if we have time we’ll get to but I think it’s really

Important to get into you know those ball striking categories off the teen approaches as looking at the difficult ones yeah that’s those are all really good I want to ask too how to capture because there’s so many ways to capture scrambling stroke in short game um you

Know you are going to have to do that a little bit here like is that how prevalent in your model is that going to be this week and how do you think the best way to capture that is so it’s a tricky week because the greens are really large here you know

7,000 square feet on average um but we we do see you know because of the wind you know so this is it’s not right right on the coast but but you know windy conditions have have pretty much always come into play here and then you have you know some players who just get

Really shaky you know so many of these greens are surrounded by water and you know it’s just you know don’t have the exact studies but you know certain players just are not as as good around those you know water holes and so you know the greens will be missed here and

So for me um this is not really week where I’m looking at you know scrambling from the rough or from the shore grass uh the data doesn’t really show much different between those this week so definitely we’ll be just looking at kind of scrambling um I know you know people

Often ask you know what’s the difference between around the green and scrambling there’s not a lot but scrambling is when you’re you’re you know you’re trying to at least you know get the par and so when you miss the green how often are you getting it you know up and down for

Par and so I think obviously with scoring being so difficult this week that is going to be pretty big and so um you know you see a lot of those guys you know Lowry and you know you know sunj and so many these guys have been good at

Scrambling and so that’s kind of how I’ll approach short game this week okay yeah It’s Tricky there’s so many options um and it’s just making sure that you’re you’re not double counting as much as you can I me some of this stuff you’re going to double count right

If you add approach and you have t de gree and you have ball striking there’s you some overlap your your double counting leaning on if you’re going to double count anything double count approach right that’s that’s fine that’s probably the most sticky stat week in

And week out on the tour and I was gonna say yeah just really quick so another thing I would just just came to my mind is par three so these are the most difficult par 3es on tour and so we have filters for part three four and five

Scoring and so you know normally I don’t I don’t get into that side of it but when this is the most difficult part threes on tour um I think that that is something that’s interesting to look at you know who plays the really tough you

Know part 3es well um and then one last thing because I don’t want to forget this is um another thing that it’s not specifically on there so you’d have to go set this yourself but you know there are a good handful of courses that are really good comps to PJ National and so

Um when you go to the course view you know if you um and I have this posted on the Discord so if you’re in there you can see the courses um that are very similar and so courses like Bay Hill you know Wy TBC Saw Grass uh TBC Twin Cities

With you know with all the water there uh TPC Southland is another really close fit and so you can actually group these courses together together um in the course view in the rabbit hole and you can kind of get a kind of perspective that way and see who has played those

Courses well and so that’s another thing that I’ll definitely have done for a long time and the rabbit hole makes it very easy now and especially if you’re looking for those courses by name you know it’ll be in the Discord and definitely in my article as well love it

Um I think I got him there and again some confirmation bias guys have won here in the past sunjay Rory poy Henley uh Ben Griffin uh showing up well again smaller samples for some of these guys but just looking at the last uh two years if you want to kick that out

Obviously you can uh mess around with that sample of data but I think is you know interesting to see again this is some of the the optionality that you have in terms of what you could do with this stuff here at the rabbit hole um you can mess around again we are showing

This in rank you can look at average or total or percent of rounds gain so you want to understand how frequently someone is performing well in a particular metric I think that that’s super useful in terms of strok gain stuff um this floor ceiling filter I absolutely love uh you

Want to get a sense of again I always reference it with like you know spiked putting weeks because that’s the thing you know we always hear of the Luke lists of the world Scotty sheffler right like at to Green it’s it’s Immaculate can we get a spike putting week well

What does that look like how frequently does that happen and what’s the range of spike is it gaining one stroke is it gaining five Strokes you can see how frequently depending on like you know years number of rounds how frequently that is happening so you want to see in this

Field uh and again you can obviously put on a Bermuda filter get a sense of of that uh you can keep on you know the Florida region piece get a sense of what that looks like here too so uh again really really useful stuff off the te

Real quick before we wrap up um what are we looking to capture here other than a less than driver stuff uh in terms of total driving good drive percentage uh what do you think you want to look at here this week in terms of off the

Te so I think for me it’s going to be a little more Nuance this week I think something I’m going to do for sure is is go to that water danger filter and I’m GNA put that on high and I’m do this probably for off the TN approach and

Just see which players you know when there’s a lot of water that comes into play um and you know yeah you got a you know decent sample size there and so yeah like the numbers you know when you get until you see kind of these names repeating themselves over and

Over you know it’s just very interesting you know I remember I remember a couple years ago Chase Seaford who’s on the corn fairy tour now um he’s been on the PJ for a while but you know I was looking at his numbers and he was like

One of the best players on tour you know at courses that had a lot of water and so you know I asked him I was like is this is is there any reason why you think this this is like this and he’s like oh yeah well I grew up in Florida

Like the course I grew up on had water on every single hole and so you know just like you say some of that confirmation bias when you when you actually get an anecdotes like that and you could see certain players lot of Florida guys grew up on these types of

Courses and so it makes sense that they’re going to be more comfortable you know around all this water so yeah and again we’re seeing some familiar names here Rory at the top sunj M cam young Keith Mitchell Luke list uh that’s your top five in high water damage uh and

Strokes gained off the te uh and again Tyler Duncan another you know random name but Tyler Duncan top five here last year um so you know and again you’re getting a fairly decent sample size over the last two years you know 36 rounds 50 rounds for some of these guys is what

We’re looking to capture so yeah some uh some familiar names and some guys that have had success here or in Florida so um yeah well I’m gonna throw this in just for the sake of showing folks how to run their model uh We’ve added stuff again when you you know when you click

This little plus button to add it you have the ability to add a little description that’s just for you uh you you don’t have to add anything but if you do you’ll be able to see what it is because again if you add a bunch of different like right here see we have

Essentially we’ve added four strokes gain total categories you click on this little icon here it’ll show you what the actual filters were um so what you’re actually looking at so this was looking at Strokes gain total Florida uh this is Strokes gain total less than driver this

Is Strokes gain total on the shorter courses because like Ron said we wanted to rule out the longer courses uh and this is Strokes gained off the with high water damage so again you can add as many of these as You’ like uh you can actually build as many of these models

As you possibly want you can see I have you save as many you can actually click this little button here too download to a CSV chop it up you want to see what Ron and I are doing in our model you want to see what some of other folks uh

That use this tool have in their model this week you can go here into the view expert ranking section uh click in that and just see again not the answers to the test but it guy maybe a thought process that starts to trigger oh I’m not looking at that um that’s very

Interesting because I do the same thing what’s Ron looking at that I’m not capturing okay I want to go down that rabbit hole a little bit and see what that is U Andy lack front of the show inside golf podcast uses it his model

Saved in the here too I want to see what Andy’s looking at Andy uses more things than I do typically right because there’s so many different ways to do this but what is Andy looking at that I maybe need to consider and maybe see someone uh maybe it confirms someone

That I’m already leaning on I think it’s a really interesting process to help build your own model and then to kind of see what things we’re giving weight to that maybe you weren’t um again just another cool resource here so I name the model and save it and again it’ll be

Here forever so we’ll do this as a PGA National First Look show I’ll save this here for folks if you want to see it um and you simply click save and generate model you can mess around with the weights I didn’t but obviously you want to weigh it out

To 100 and this makes some sense the top of our model here that we spit out number one Rory mroy top of the board six to1 7 to1 some spots Daniel Burger again limited sample but has played terrific golf in Florida throughout his career uh and again as you see getting

Um you know I think here he’s fifth over the last two years I think he’s first over the last three years Strokes gained total Florida so decent sample of burger having success Shane Lowry sanj M Russell again guys who have been at the top of the leaderboard or have won this event

Uh Matthew Fitzpatrick Keith Mitchell Cory Connors Chris Kirk your defending champ Adam Fenson rounds out the top 10 so again some commonalities even though this is not a course that typically has great sticky course history this has been a spot where I looked at my notes

Um last night and last year last couple years I’ve gotone a little light pre-tournament on outrights because there’s a lot of volatility in this event so again because of the water because of the finishing stretch you can get to a spot where you know there’s a

Pretty long number on a guy here that’s in the top 10 of what we’re looking at right now that you’re you had pre-tournament interest in and all of a sudden isn’t that far behind but is kind of in the mix and you’re going to be

Able to get him at you know a much larger number so uh again how million ways to skin a cat however you decide do you like to bet your golf All rights or bet golf in general I think you’re going to have some live ad options here some

Live betting and some round by round stuff in this week run yeah that’s a great Point um I think you I think it’s a perfect course to do this on just because of what you said you know we haven’t even talked about the bear trap

Um which is you know kind of one of the three toughest um holes on tour grouped together which you know yeah a lot of volatility down the stretch and and I’ll say this even about last week just really quick because um I I should have listen to the rabbit hole because if you

If distance and power off the te and all that was was a big part of your model last week you know Jake Napp was up there um so I probably should have trusted that a little bit more you know I know the lack of sample size he had

Scared me away a little bit but um yeah it’s just you know the rabbit hole it’s not the answer to everything but it does kind of hone in on you know at least a a group of guys that you definitely want to Target more than others this week y

Absolutely so uh again you can head over to B Spurs golf you check out Ron’s extensive course preview which I think you do not want to uh if you are again seeing this the first time and it’s of interest to you again take a look at the plans page uh

We have a really cheap way to do it as well we’ve partnered with Vivid pick again uh you know parent company Vivid Seats your secondary ticket Market uh Vivid pick is a DFS pick site some there some other ones that are out there we have a way to get access to all that

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Take advantage of the rabbit hole get all Ron’s content get in our Discord get all the picks you know Ron shares a lot of stuff that is Discord only that does not make its way to Twitter that does not make its way to an article I think

There’s a ton of value in that too so you if you scroll down Vivid unfortunately is only available in about 28 States if you happen to be in one of the 22 that can’t take advantage DM us on Twitter bsbs golf or if you’re overseas we’ve had a lot of folks reach

Out to us that are in the UK uh love to you know cap golf as well contact us at betsports golf.com we’ll get you a discount to get you a discount on either your first week first month uh or the annual subscription which is the best

Way to do it now prices are going to be going up in the coming weeks so we want you to take advantage of this and there’s no cheaper way then obviously through the Vivid deal so check it out all right Ron uh anything else for the

Folks before we leave uh you capped it up pretty well so we’re good awesome uh betting show tomorrow uh bsb’s golf uh bsb’s YouTube channel subscribe there Ron uh and our buddy Byer and the model Maniac will be here on Wednesday for your DFS needs so uh subscribe thumbs up

Like all that stuff before you take off uh we’ll see youall next time thanks everyone

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