Should You BET Rory McIlroy To Win Cognizant Classic? Golf Picks & PGA Tour Props | Links & Locks

Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Spencer Aguiar and Nick Bretwisch join Roberto Arguello to discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Cognizant Classic on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

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00:00 – Cognizant Classic Best Bets
09:52 – Course Preview
15:23 – Outright Bets
27:35 – bet365 Promo
28:18 – Other Picks
42:23 – Rory McIlroy
42:58 – Rapid Fire Picks
50:40 – More Golf

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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #BlueWireVideo

Hello you beautiful degenerates and welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 I’m your host Roberto aruo and I’m excited to get into this week’s cognizant classic in the Palm Beaches betting preview along with Spencer agar and Nick brwi gentlemen this is the

First tournament of the Florida swing as we move from the west coast to the east coast so a bit of a different ballpark this week at PGA Nationals the Champion Course Spencer I’ll let you have the te box first what is your best bet for the cognizant classic in the Palm Beaches I

Think Nick and I have a different opinion on this tournament like for me what classifies as a best bet this tournament is probably lower on the advantage scale than most tournaments uh with all that being said I am going to lay a little bit more juice than I

Normally would on a head-to-head bet I’m gonna take chessen Hadley minus 125 over Matt coocher chess and Hadley minus 125 over Matt coocher is spenc best bet I will not have Best Bets this week because I’m a part of the PGA Tour live coverage on featured holes very excited

To work with Christina Kim for the first time this week so no bets for me but Nick I know you’ve got a full card this week what’s your best bet Hammer kids coming back it’s been a long it’s been a long time I believe he has won for two

This year so you hate to see him even lose one but I’m going with the recent form of the ball Striker himself if you want to call it that according to my numbers looks good I guess I’m giving you my reason and the pick at the same

Time which is against the rules on the show so I will go with Carson young top 40 plus 150 all right Carson young top 40 plus 150 so plus money on the hammer kid this week Spencer before we get into the hammer kid play tell us why you have

Identified this matchup bet on chess and Hadley there’s and we’ll get into this a little bit more when we talk about the tournament this is a highly volatile event because of all the water and and I think when books saw this at least in my

Opinion with the way I ran my numbers uh numbers were either skewed in a certain direction in the outright Market or when you look at these matchups I thought the matchups you had very few options available so there were like three or four guys that I wanted to try to find a

Match up against when I was originally looking Cameron Champ would have been the number one option I thought this was a really nice fade spot after what he did last week uh don’t even see a matchup in the market against him so couldn’t go that route tried to take on

Alexander borc didn’t really see much there either coocher was the one name where I could at least find a matchup against ranked 118th in my model out of 144 players in this field for weighted proximity when I ran the data for PGA National he also generated a 113th Place

Projected grade for ball striking when I added in his driving totals to the mix I think the recent production that you look at whether that’s at hard to score venues or or even any of the outputs that I ran for weighted Strokes gain total both of those barely cracked the

Top 100 for me like I would be naive if I didn’t say that this had miscut versus miscut potential I don’t think Hadley necessarily has a perfect profile himself but when I’m looking at coocher and I’m trying to take on a gol for like yes you have the high-end upside of the

Short game that coocher brings but the critical ball striking returns really took a dip for me Hadley had a lot of those same short game returns he had better upside numbers in the ball striking areas and I also think when we’re looking at a matchup here like we

Don’t need the highest end of a result from Hadley in my opinion to get this bet across the Finish Line we’ve seen him make the cut in 11 of his last 12 starts I don’t know if this is necessarily the best course fit for him

To continue that run but as I said we don’t need that ceiling performance to get past what I deemed to be a struggling Matt coocher this week a little bit more juice than I would love would have liked to have paid in this spot um I think there’s a reason though

Why this number has been drifting up and is now more in the minus10 5 range so I’m going to take that as my best bet but I mean it’s a very limited card Roberto there’s uh two outrights and this matchup to choose from and that’s that’s the entirety of my card Spencer

Last week you were all over fading McKenzie Hughes and he shot eight over par through two rounds not even close to making the cut so anybody who tailed you on those F on that fade of Mackenzie Hughes made some more money last week hopefully the same happens this week

With match coocher and coocher as we know veteran on the PGA tour been around for forever he played in this event every year between 2004 and 2009 played again in 2011 and didn’t play what was then the Honda Classic until 2023 last year which shows that he doesn’t like

This course for whatever reason or doesn’t like the spot on the calendar last year he missed the cut here so clearly this is not his favorite course so I think that’s a really strong play of fading Matt coocher so be sure to shop around and see where you can find

Somewhere to fade him Nick let’s get into the hammer kid play of the week Carson young top 40 plus 150 yeah so overall just a price grab for me I had this price at plus 1110 I think Carson young is surprisingly one of the better ball Strikers in the field overall

Especially with the midiron play that my model seem to wait very heavily for this track in addition to accuracy and somewhat distance off the T but in the weighted total driving that I try to mock off of Spencer’s model I’ve never been close to doing what he does in

Terms of modeling so that is your guy we’ll give a shout out real quick to Ben Silverman I mean just there’s no way any other show in the world and I’m not even patting myself in the back this is all going to my podcast partner Spencer but

I had so many friends that just listened to the show last week and they’re like who the hell is Ben Silverman they looked at he’s like he’s not young like there’s nothing about him they looked at some of the data that you could find out there for free I don’t think they

Subscribed to anything they like I don’t know how the hell Spencer found this guy and there he is like on the final 2T times on Sunday a guy that we never heard of and and Spencer I guess if we want to you know [ __ ] on him a little

Bit he was very conservative with only betting just to make the cut when the guy you know could have you could have placement laded him but um Carson young though for me just graded so safe and I was very very surprised to see a plus

150 number in the top 40 I know that’s still not a super advantageous bet for but for me to get 40 points of value on Carson young I’ll take that all day he has gained Strokes ball striking in six of his last six events like I said earlier the mid iron plays fantastic

Their beuda putting is the best surface for him in terms of the data that I could pull so overall I I I think it’s a perfect spot for him I think it’s a watered downfield to what we’ve semil seen in years past and uh overall like

When I’ve looked at these type of bets in the past this has actually been a profitable event for me the last two years in 2022 I had the placement ladder on Chris Kirk when he started to really come into form I think he was actually in contention to win the event and

Absolutely crap the bed on Sunday I think he shot three or four over if I remember correctly um that one still sings but last year on this show I believe we uh talked about Kevin Roy top 40 so I wish I can get like the three

And a half to four to one placement Market here but the best value I found was on Carson young also had a t29 here last year when his game was not nearly in the form it is right now so checks really every single box for me but like

Spencer said it is a very volatile event um one or two water balls away from in the cut so I will always kind of tread lightly there but this is the most amount of exposure I’ve had in the outright Market in some time so I think

Um I’m more excited to talk about that but I would like to hear you guys thoughts on Carson young at plus 150 uh I mean I’ll I’ll just give a very quick answer because I think you talked about it Nick it’s a really good number grab situation for Carson young he’s

Inside of the top 40 of my model in all iterations of how I ran it the ball striking is very similar in my build as in yours I mean this is a golfer that’s trending in the right direction and even if we look last year at him this was a

Name that there were portions of that season where like legitimate upside was being delivered from him and legitimate safety also we got away with that at or away from that at a certain point but I I I think all of a sudden we’re starting to see some of this trajectory come back

In to play for young and if markets are a little bit slow to move here and and you can get him at plus 150 for a 40 I certainly think there’s value to punch a ticket there I think he’s a really interesting golfer you mentioned last year how he was really struggling coming

Into this event before this event he had 11 starts nine of them were miscuts and the other two were a typ of 53 and 53rd and a 77th so not a lot of form coming in his two best results last year on tour were a Ty for third at the Puerto

Rico open and a nth at the worldwide technology Championship no data available at any of those courses at either of those two courses so a little frustrating not to see what the formula for him is when he’s played well but last week coming off of his best result

On the PGA tour Ty for E and has not lost Strokes on approach so far this season so he’s becoming a lot more consistent playing way better than he did last year at this time and he goes into a course that should fit his eye with strong approach play and also

Extreme driving accuracy so I like the fit for Carson young he’s somebody who putter looks like it can get hot and he can score in some of these lower scoring tournaments although this is one of the tougher tournaments on the PJ tour I think should be a good fit this week so I’m

Excited to see how Carson young does and of course tune in to how he does on the part 3es we’ll be all over that all week long on PJ Tour live uh some tougher part 3es this week including two of the three on the bear trap but as we

Mentioned the bear trap here at PGA National the champion let’s get into our our course preview of course after our course preview we’ll get into best bet or we’ll get into outright bets that you guys have and then placement picks we’ll talk about one and done and then any

Other uh lingering questions we have before we get into rapid fire where we break down everybody at 50 to1 or shorter this week but first the course preview for PGA National Spencer I’ll let you break it down first yeah I mean I think it’s important to note before we

Even get into the discussion here that when you look at past versions of this tournament uh the one noticeable change this week is that the challenging 58 yard par 410 has now been converted into an additional par five that doesn’t mean the difficulty isn’t still going to be

There since 15 holes present legitimate water hazards that can come into play which is one of the reasons that this tournament has ranked as a top 10 track in terms of difficulty in 14 of the past 17 Seasons with all that being said though I I do think had adding a handful

Of extra par five attempts over the course of four days does add a little bit of extra ease to the course I will say that you aren’t going to get that forgiveness during the bear trap holes that you talked about Roberto at 1516 and 17 those are three setups that

Create Havoc especially on Sunday when you’re trying to close out the event you also get an equally tough three- hole run between five six and seven those are a little bit of a run and and a duration there where you can quickly balloon your score if you find your game going in the

Wrong direction I I think when you look at this tournament and this is one of the things I was even noting when just talking about my best bet like Florida tournaments are hard to handicap um I think water is the obvious answer there for the undoing for many golfers in the

Field a factor like that is exceptionally noticeable when comparing courses like for an example let’s take the Genesis Invitational you could go Wayward off the te but still have the ability to scramble out of the rough to salvage your score all of that goes out the window when you get a Florida course

Specifically at the cognizant classic like a Wandering driver an approach shot ends up with that dreaded water-bound answer and I mean that’s the worst thing you can find when you open the PGA Tour app and and we can we can say whatever we want about that but I mean there’s

Nothing worse than opening the app and seeing somebody in the water there and hoping that there’s a mistake above anything else so I essentially built a model that looked into this encapsulated version of Strokes gained uh that I tried to run the fit PGA National that included golfers who would avoid water

Off the tea at a challenging driving course how someone would see their proximity increase when I did add an extra weight from 100 to 200 yards that was a range that experien over at 10% increase in importance I think at the end of the day playing bogey avoided

Golf is still going to be a heavy factor in finding success at this tough setup but it’s very different type of strategy just like I talked about you can’t scramble from the bottom of the lake so I wanted Savvy shot makers who could think through strategy on the course I

Wanted to find golfers that could generate that blueprint throughout the bag I do think you need to have a complete game to find success here it doesn’t mean there isn’t volatility that enters the mix for any of those returns because of that water-bound penalty uh

Being so severe but um it’s one of the reasons why my card is a little bit less involved and invested I think it’s a it’s a bit of a crapshoot tournament um there are corollary trends that we can look at from past iterations to get a

Better idea of who’s going to play well here but uh it’s a very challenging course repter like that’s that’s a long answer to say uh that’s one of the reasons why I have a condensed version of a card I think the secondary answer will come into play when we talk about

Outrights and stuff where if Sports books couldn’t come up with an answer I thought that they skewed some of the pricing away from exposure themselves and uh when you get that combination of my model not necessarily finding an advantage and sports books being very cautious in their approach with the

Matchups and some of the placements that they put out there and when you look at the outright Market in particular I mean you have 18 players between 22 to 50 to1 on the board you have Rory mroy at 8 to1 you kind of have this thrown together version where every single person is

Landing in the same spot and I don’t think and you and I talked about this Roberto before the show even started there’s a lot of great players in that range and I do tend to think that one of those names ends up winning this golf tournament I just worry that you know

It’s when you have to pay 22 to1 or 25 to1 for Cameron young that’s not the price I want to be going down so um I’m going to take a couple shots when we get to the outright Market but very little exposure I think that makes it ton of

Sense and that’s a a great way to approach it and of course Spencer you cover intern bets here at Action Network so with there being so much V volatility on this course perhaps that opens up some opportunities for some more inter tournament betting especially from an outright perspective this week uh Nick

Anything you’d like to add on the course preview nailed it I love that I think one one thing which I might have missed Spencer 125 to 200 yards over 60% of approach shots coming from that range of course this is a Bermuda grass course being in Florida so big shift from POA

So guys who are more comfortable on those surfaces uh will be successful here most likely also there’s Ry grass overseed in the rough so not quite pure Bermuda rough everywhere uh but some of those Fairway lies around the greens could be tough if you’re going into the

Grain so all stuff to keep in mind but with that being said Spencer who are you betting outright to win the cognizant Classic this week started with Stephen joerger at 40 to1 I’m back on the joerger train again and I I exited for a couple weeks I feel like this is a

Really nice spot for him like when you look at this board take a guy like benon for example he opens at 45 to1 and he moves down into let’s just say 28 to1 to call it a safe number there we talked about Cameron young being in sub 30 to one

There’s an Eric Cole and a Russell Henley answer of two golfers that my model likes but you get a spot here with joerger where he’s 40 to one for me has a very similar profile as a lot of those guys but gets this inflated price right

Now and and for me I think it stems from this reason of this public perception that’s taken place of him because of the lack of perceived win Equity that he has but you know it’s important to note and we’ve talked about this a million times on the show and I’ve probably given this

Exact stat over 10 times at this point but this is a golfer that on the corn fairy tour between 2016 and 2021 won six times I know some of the PGA success has been limited until recently I just thought it was extremely hard to find a golfer in this field Who provided a

Better mixture of safety and upside for this particular Market we’re going to need the upside but 22 consecutive made cuts that blends really well with the two top three finishes over his last three starts when you put all of those pieces together my model seemed to

Believe that this is a a golfer that’s trending in the direction to finally get across the finish line on the PGA tour and I think when you look at some of the trending stats the one thing that was hurting him in a lot of these events that didn’t provide the upside was that

The putter was just bad every single week it would be week after week where we lost Strokes putting and you’re still going to get some of that he’s lost over three and a half Strokes in three of his last 13 tournaments with the putter I think the biggest difference that we’ve

Seen recently though is he’s also gained a minimum of 2.8 shots with the putter four times during those 13 tournaments that Boomer bus nature plays exceptionally well when you put it on a ball striking course um if the putter hits and you’re finding Greens in regulation and it’s a difficult scoring

Course joerger has the potential to work his way up this board he’s averaging 4175 shots to the field during his last 12 starts T2 green to me this was the one golfer of any of those names that I talked about that actually got a fair or an inflated price from what they should

Have been so I think jger is very similar to any of those golfers at the top you’re just getting a better number there and then I wrapped up my card with Christian Baden Hout at 66 to1 uh Jason soel was the one that got on that the

Best he got him at 80 or 90 to1 that’s one of the reasons why you want to jump on numbers before they move but I had 50 to1 being the proper price for him so I think even anywhere in the 60s here you’re still finding value it’s a very

Similar answer that I gave for joerger where in general according to the public I would say there’s this lack of upside that is seen from him but I think what he has shown form wise in 2024 is very different from what we’ve seen in other years so he’s earned

Between 1.3 to 4.7 shots with his irons over his past four starts that’s a 3.22 or 3.22 Strokes gained on average during that span um his driver is certainly going to have to improve he’s dropped Strokes to the field over his last eight tournaments I just think that

You throw him here on a shorter venue that’s going to enhance some of the weight of proximity enhance some of the Bermuda putting it gives him a chance to really reach that high-end metric just because scoring is more difficult here so like the way I viewed it and the way

That my model ran it is if he could find Fairways off the te limit some of the damage there and then because he is such a great bogy avoidance player and he plays some of these difficult courses well I if he can create then the upside

With the approach play that we have seen as of late that’s something that he didn’t have last year and make putts on Bermuda and find one of those hot Putters I think the upside is very high for him in this tournament and uh this is coming from somebody that never bets

Bazan out because I worry about the upside so I thought it was a really intriguing price here whether you want to call it you know the low ends of the 60s or if you have a book that’s slow to move here in like the 80s where Jason

Soble got it I think any of those numbers have value yeah great call by Jason you guys both had them in our early outright article as well so be sure to tune in to those on Monday here on Action Network Nick who do you have on your outright

Card this week Christian Baden as one so I’m not I’m not going to Echo any of the reasons why Spencer and soble obviously talked about him earlier so absolutely love that you guys are on that I started with the top of the board I I was very

Close with Jager I ended up choosing sep straa in that middle upper range interested to hear you guys thoughts on him um a guy I don’t usually back obviously has great course history here winning it and then I think T5 in the last year so very familiar a guy that

Just doesn’t miss Fairways the approach game ball striking overall is in a great spot um but at the very top of the board I went with Tom Kim at 30 to1 I think you know 6 months ago this is a guy that’s probably 18 to1 in this field so

I always like to bet on that type of pedigree and that upside I think it’s a very good course fit sure his form is not you know the Tom Kim we were seeing six to eight months ago but it’s certainly I I think can come back in a

Her uh in a hurry also a little bit of time off traveling over to Florida so I dig that um a guy that really blew up my numbers in terms of like I hate this ticket personally I don’t feel like I would ever bet this guy shorter than 75

To1 but here I am at 55 to1 this was more of like picking on the market seems like most of the market went to the low 40s but Adam Svenson at 55 to1 seems like the market just overall is incredibly sharp on him I threw away

Money betting Luke list at 60 to one and then obviously I had to go down to Chan Kim at 150 to1 on our sponsor bet 365 and then a guy that Spencer was very very high on last week that I wasn’t necessarily vibing as much but I think

This is a really good course fit for him and the upside certainly out weighs the uh the long price of 100 to1 I did take Rio hitsun on this course and then Gary Woodland just a number grab at 135 to1 so I have officially one full unit at

Risk in the outright Market but would love to get your thoughts real quick on my decision on Tom Kim it was either him or my boy Russell Henley I chose Tom Kim um sep straa I’m okay if you guys want to pass on luk list I don’t think I need

Your your thoughts on there but Adam senson just getting that short in the mark Market was very interesting to me and then Rio and Gary Woodland we love your thoughts on those guys I’ll tell you this Nick I’m not going to have you have a ticket on Rio and I don’t become

Invested on it my model liked him again this week I got a little bit worried about what I saw I I do think 100 to one is a good price so that will be my inpod play that I I obviously have a lot of

Room on my ticket I’ll add Rio at 100 to one um a lot of the same weighted scoring numbers of Wyatt liked him last week is going to like him again in here I think Tom Kim is very interesting because it’s a boomer bus profile that

You get with him but the upside is the Intriguing part when we’re looking in an outright Market here uh inside the top six of my model for weight it’s scoring um if you look at some of the ball striking totals that he brings to the

Mix he’s third for me there is a very high ceiling if he puts the pieces together I guess the only concern I would have is how is he able to putt on Bermuda uh he had a negative trajectory inside of my model for that but I think

We’re nitpicking here on a profile where like I agree if you look at Tom Kim and you compare them to some of these other golfers and there are high-end traits that you can find from a Cameron young I keep going to Cameron young this week for some reason but like Cameron young

Is number one in my model in ball striking but when you compare cam young to Tom Kim you have a golfer who’s won multiple times on tour at this price versus a guy in cam young that’s you know 2225 to one with I think all of us

Like cam Young on most weeks and we talk about him a lot there’s been a lot of bets that we’ve placed on him but until we see that form of upside from him that we haven’t gotten to a certain point I do think a number like this on Tom Kim

Is intriguing because you backtrack this to kind of to Nick’s Point Let’s just say a year ago Tom Kim is probably I mean I don’t know 14 to one in this field and not that that’s necessarily what the true fair price ended up being over the course of time and I think

We’ve gotten a better indication of what he is is but when he puts the pieces together he can really hit in a big way and the the metrics here are forming in certain directions to where the ball striking looks great for PGA National so

I I do think that there’s a low floor on this play compared to some of the other plays but it’s like we always talk about in the outright Market you want to shoot for the ceiling as much as possible I’m probably out just to answer Nick’s

Question on straa um I’m never a LC less guy myself so myel I didn’t like that one I did not like that one markets love him though I’ll tell you that like he is sharp across the board at pretty much any matchup I’ve seen I don’t know I

Don’t know if that’s more of a thing of like people wanting to fade Justin Rose in the current ball striking that he’s put together but almost any matchup I’ve seen from list at this point there is sharp money that’s coming in on him I just can’t get there personally but I’m

Gonna join you on Rio and I think that Tom Kim ticket’s very intriguing and I like the senson play I want to throw that out spencon was a name that I was highly consider considering all yeah it just feels gross to take him at 55 to one but man

Literally the whole market now is at 35 or 45 at the longest there still is a 55 sitting out there so if you’re into Adam Svenson I mean it is a great course as ball striking in great form remita putting everything you want to see is is

Pretty much their form but I think there’s a severe lack of upside in him as well I like the senson play he’s consistently been striking his ball well but hasn’t put well on the PO surfaces so I think that switch to Bermuda could really do him uh a lot of good for him

And I think that’s why there’s some sharp money coming on him uh I also thought Chan Kim was a sneaky great play he popped up last week played really well and last year on the corn fairy tour he was second overall on the points list so really good player he’s a guy

Whom I’d like to Target on tougher courses and this certainly fits the build there it’s a very different course from Vidant so I like that play as well I also like the list play Luke list awesome ball Striker he learned how to putt somehow so shout out Luke true um

Made that went to lab though didn’t he he’s got a lab putter shout out to our unofficial sponsor uh I know he has a center shafted putter I’m not sure if it’s lab though um okay so might as well be luke if you’re listening buddy get a

Lab so he can puttting out and he absolutely stripes the ball as long as he’s in the Fairway I think he’s got as great of a chance as just about anybody in ball striking this week and Gary Woodland a guy who I think hopefully figures it out sooner than later I know

That it’s a matter of Health for him he’s not 100% it sounds like but maybe this shift over to berm grass helps his putting a little bit and we know that he can strike the ball so for Pure upside I like that play I know that his floor is

Not super high but I like it from an upside perspective as well also great course history when we look at what Woodland’s been able to put together at this tournament it’s like if you can take that ball striking skill set and he can find some form here I I I kind of

Agree with exactly what you said Roberto like the the floor is extremely low but who really cares about the floor when you’re trying to shoot for upside here I think back in Florida I think that he lives somewhere maybe down by like Fort Lauderdale or something I looked it up

Earlier but obviously not staying in his own bed I guess on the west side of PGA but back back closer to home I think should help him out too with the uh the health concerns I think he’s a cheaper version of luk list in theory yep exactly all right moving on to placement

Market bets but first a reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than with anyone else they power up the they every day they power up the odds on

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Spencer I’ll let you have the first shot at it I I’m tapped out this is this is a Nick show this week so I will defer the floor to Nick here I’m also also tapped out it was just Carson young I was looking at some others in the top 40 I

Guess I’ll give you maybe a couple names that maybe we uh meet in the middle and get an inod play but I mean Chan Kim I just can’t do shorter than like plus 250 just because I remember the past now it’s like all right bookmakers understand that you

Know better golf pod was on to something three or four years ago when we played him uh top 40 at like 8 to one at the was it the US Open or the PGA when Phil won is a PGA right PGA yeah yeah so that

Was fun also on the East Coast so you know if you want to back Chan Kim you we have a very small sample size of success on the East Coast um here was one other guy I looked at I mean like Jacob Bridgeman I had

Value on but I don’t trust that data at all so I’m going to pass on that it’s great to see the top 40 Market back but guys I it’s it’s pretty squeezed really the only true value on something that I had a good enough sample sized on was Carson young yeah I

Mean I think the Carson young numbers is an exceptional value to pull there like I was hoping an option like Brandon woo would be a little bit higher than he was like I have no interest at the plus 110 number I think that’s more where the fair price actually is but 150 Brandon

Woo is at 150 on a couple books out there in the legal market so I did look at him it was between him or Carson young but technically I guess I still have a little bit of room in the placement market so Brandon woo Roberto impal inod play or inod sign off because

You cannot gamble this week I I like B Brandon woo migrated at Stanford so uh coming off a strong week last week should bring some confidence in After Rolling the rock well at Vidant and the course is going to be a little bit softer than it has played in years’s

Past so I think that all sets up well for Brandon woo especially if you want to Target him over the weekend he’s a really strong player Spencer and I were talking about this before uh we hopped on and started recording he’s a strong win player he has a lower ball flight

And so he can take advantage of some of those uh tougher conditions so I think he could be a strong player if you want to wait for a matchup on the weekend and play a little bit more conservatively that could be a great idea you know when you look at Carson

Young and Brandon wo and my model there’s a four 100th of a percent difference where uh my model does like Carson young more but it’s very similar profile between those two so there’s really not much of a difference there so um I’m kind of under the mentality Nick

If you like Carson young you should probably like Brandon woo at the same price and um I I might have to tell you on Young and add a Brandon woo ticket myself we’ll go in pod lean Brandon woo plus 150 top 40 all right first placement Market in

Pot play uh we’ve got Rio hsun at 100 to one as our other in pot play for Spencer I’m just I I came here with no bets and I’m just full of inod plays left and right right now so one market that we’re all going

To be in is oneand done this week for the first time since week one we have a new leader in our Action Network 15 man one in dpool that is Nick Nick picked St jger last week he gained over 400 Grand last week I don’t remember what the

Exact number was you now have a $200,000 lead on me and about a $2 million lead on everybody else in our pool including Spencer who could not get somebody to roll the rock on the green once again with his uh pick on Nikolai hoard I had

I had all that great uh clv on Tony fenale that withered away on Thursday morning just as predicted on this here podcast Nick you got the lead in one and done who are among the players you’re considering this week all right let’s go through this

Real quick let’s see who I I mean Keith Mitchell is probably my lean at the moment I don’t know if I actually have him available I’m trying to pull that up live on air I should have Keith I mean if you’ve used Keith Mitchell at this

Point we might need to like have a discussion I do have we’re all behind we’re all in trouble I think I think I’m going to go with I mean and I give you guys my play on the Pod every time so I can’t like go off

The rails here I think I’m going to go with Keith Mitchell um ball striking is absolutely Elite right now what he uh I was just talking to CA before the show too it he was terrible the first round out then probably gave nap a run for his

Money with iron plays and has great history not going to miss many Fairways I think that’s something I value here a lot I’m definitely not using Rory Tom cam Cameron young to volatile SE straa no thanks not buying into Matthew pavon something about the French if your

French are listening to the show I’m sorry Russell Henley is always intriguing but I like as good as his ball striking is currently it’s not up to par with Russell Henley so I can’t do that and knowing water and Russell Henley is going to be heartbreak um Corey Connor’s I can’t do

The putter especially I think Conor is intriguing as a contrarian pick here but I I’ve my DFS guy I think I’m going to go with Connor there but yeah um I mean Baden Hout I love that everybody’s kind of riding that I was very I guess before

The show I was between Svenson and Keith Mitchell knowing that I have Keith Mitchell left I think I will just go with Keith Mitchell it’s interesting to know I mean you are correct you come on the show every single week and actually are like straightforward with us and give the

Pick maybe I could learn something from you rather than showing you my game plan try to beat it you know like I’m confident in where the uh the one andone lack of model is at right now it’s just up in the head and we’re going with Keith Mitchell guys

Try and beat it I dare you I me when you have a lead it’s a really easy strategy of just like here’s where I’m at do the best you can to catch me and it it really deters certain strategies where I mean I’m starting to get so far behind

You where there’s there’s weeks it’s not going to be this week but where like you kind of by telling me deviate my strategy ever so slightly because I can’t be taking the same elections as you when I’m trying to make up ground maybe I’m over like big braak brain

Thinking this situation but uh I don’t know for me I I guess there were two plays that were the most intriguing I think one’s going to be extremely popular I do think you can consider a bazay and Hal I think you can consider you know an Eric Cole

Potentially but like the two for me that were the most enticing would be joer um at least I know with joerger Nick can’t take him he had him last week so it’s a spot for me to a little bit different there and then um Ben on I I do think

The benon this is a very nice spot to use him it’s a course that he loves so uh it’ll probably be one of those two I’m leaning towards joerger I’m a little bit afraid that Roberto is going to take jger and then I’m going to have to once

Again deviate from my strategy and it all crumbles beneath me but I mean it does feel I will say this with all the lack of success that my Putters or my golfers have had with putting this does feel like one of those spots where I take Jager and loses like nine Strokes

Putting after leading the field ball striking I’m conflicted on joerger because like you I know that Nick can’t use him after Nick used him last week but one of jer’s biggest strengths is his driving distance uh which has become a weapon because he’s big time put on a

Bunch of distance uh compared to pre previous years I don’t love that this course just has so much water and some forc layups so that he can’t use it this much so I might just be a little angry that I said last week if I didn’t use

Fow I would use Jer and it might be an overreaction to use him but I might hold on to him for for later I had him as my picked and I pulled him out right now I have Eric Cole who last year was below average in both driving distance and

Driving accuracy he’s jumped from 163rd in driving accuracy to 47th on tour in driving accuracy this year because let me see here I got this I got um exact numbers on this uh last year between the John Deere classic and the Shriner children’s open he was above average in

Driving accuracy on those nine tournaments zero times uh zero and in the nine tournaments since then he’s been above average field driving accuracy seven times and the two times that he wasn’t he was 1% below so literally missed one Fairway uh more than the the average so he while he’s

Still isn’t very long he’s become a much more accurate driver at the golf ball and the rest of his game is really strong in the top 55 in Strokes game putting around the green and approach play so I think Eric Cole is somebody whom I’d like to Target this week and

Right now he is my pick I do think that’s pretty Square given that this is where he had his best result as a PJ Tour golfer so far but as long as Nick doesn’t pick him and Spencer doesn’t pick him I’m okay with everybody else picking him just like Tony Fina

Last week so you got oh sorry go ahead you’re good that was it I are you guys worried about like it seems like the market loves Ben on too and like you said about joerger I think like his driver distance obviously his iron play around the green making putts again is a

Lot but I feel like that hurts him a little bit here or is it kind of like the Cam Davis CL uh Club down conspiracy that we invented Spencer he’s like Jagger’s worse than my model in the projected total driving than I would have for him on some weeks

Like I think when you look specifically in this field he’s 17th overall which is a little bit lower than you would anticipate for a golfer uh that I like so much but I mean there’s positive numbers in my model for the weighted proximity I do think this is a

Nice course fit for him in that area um I think when you look at like the weighted Strokes game total that I ran there’s a ton of upside for him there I the one thing I will say like the one caveat to this whole thing is joerger is

In my opinion more Boomer bust than a lot of these guys like that’s part of the reason why maybe even in the outright Market his price is the way it is I know this is a golfer that I talked about making 22 consecutive Cuts but um

I think if he puts the pieces together the the ceiling is the limit here like it’s huge like I mean like he can he can win this golf event but if you were to tell me of any of the golfers we’ve talked about any these golfers that are

Like let’s just say 40 to1 or less he probably has maybe maybe the lowest floor of the group too just because of some of those concerns but I also think that like the upside is worth taking a swing at it and if I don’t see a lot of ownership around

Him potentially in one andone contest I I just think that um people are going to find a way to try to get off of him for all the reasons that you guys have said and I I kind of think this is just a golfer right now that’s trending in the right direction

I’m with it Roberto we got to keep in mind too that we have we’re pretty much in a two- horse race right now unless someone gets an outright winner so Spencer does need to shoot for the moon we’re only we’re a quarter of the way through the season and after this week

We’ve got API and the players back to back and the Masters all within like a six week span so there’s a lot of money coming in one and done that can completely turn the thing upside down so I’m not yeah I I I always check it too

Early it’s like 2023 turn Champions K morawa all over again I always start hot and one and done two and just give it away so maybe you’re right I should uh sit tight here and be humble but this this is a week where I don’t think you

Want to bet chalk at the top of the odds board and I don’t think you want to use an elite player in oneand done there’s really only one Elite player in this field in Roy maroy so I wouldn’t use him here even though he does have some great

Course history he has several miscuts and I think if you want to be contrarian you find a good miscut number out there or you want to fade him in some matchups I think this could be a good week to do that um but I wouldn’t use Rory mroy this

Week unless you want to go super Galaxy brain and Zig when everybody else is zagging um my biggest concern with doing that like even if you end up being correct and he wins the golf tournament like there’s just not enough money on the table for me to want to go that

Route and and I kind of think Rory might end up winning this event like that’s kind of maybe my contrarian take this week I know he’s the favorite so I mean how contrarian are we getting here but I haven’t heard anybody talk about him when actually discussing winners of this

Event I think this is a really nice spot for him like just been a weird start for him in 2024 he had all his success overseas and then all of a sudden he comes to play these PGA Tour events and he puts the pieces together for like 17

Holes or you know 16 holes and then he gets these random implosions that take place and then all of a sudden he shoots himself down the leaderboard um you could argue that he loses some of his strengths that he has of distance at this course but I just think Rory’s game

Plays so well everywhere I love him in Florida always um I just think from a oneandone contest you’re really Galaxy braining the situation and that’s fine to do if there was more money in play I just look we already know what I’m going to do I’m going to take Rory at the

Masters and be upset after he shoots a 77 on day one Spencer it’s a great transition what do you make proper for Ry maoy this week he’s 8 to one in our sponsor bet 365’s enhanced win Market I think he should be 10 to one I

Mean I don’t think you’re getting a fair price to actually punch a ticket on him but um I mean I think the number is in the range of where it should be like I’ve seen some people tweet out that he should be 14 15 to one like that’s an OV

Exaggeration of what we’ve seen Rory is still the class of this tournament and still has the best upsite to actually win this event I think that’s all well said fellas let’s get into our rapid fire segment we talked about Rory looking through if I gave you a free wager on any of

These guys with these current numbers who would you take Cameron young 24 to1 Russell Henley’s 27 to1 and Eric Cole is 27 to1 Nick I’ll start you off first with this potential free outride rager H cam young Spencer I almost feel like I mean cam young has the one profile in my model

Where he is the number one projected ball Striker for this tournament um I think if you’re playing to actually win the answer is probably Cameron young and I’ll agree there I think if you’re trying to find what player is like the safest of the mix I would rather play

The other two I would go for like Eric Cole for safety I’d agree with that that’s why I’m considering him for one and one and done looking at the next tier guys Matt Fitzpatrick is 30 to one Tom Kims are also 30 to1 we know Nick

Has a wager on him so Nick you’re not allowed to choose him Benny on is 30 to1 and JT Poston is also 35 to one Nick if I gave you a free outright wager on those guys besides Kim who would you pick benan I will go with benan in that

Situation um Tom kid would be obviously my other choice but yeah Benny on Spencer yeah I mean they would be one a one B for me I I will go with Ben on though I I think if anybody that got him at those 45 to1 numbers when they open

When he opened there that was the best value on the board um don’t think he’s necessarily betable where he is right now I I do think it’s Fring and close but number one player in my model an expected Strokes gain total when you put them on berm

Courses looking in the next tier of golfers we’ve got pass Champion Sun JM at 37 to1 along with Min Le also at 37 to1 Shane Lowry had success here before also 37 to1 and Daniel Burger whom Nick I believe you bet in one of his most

Recent starts at 150 to1 at the Genesis Invitational also is 37 to1 among those guys IM minwu Lee Shane Lowry and Daniel Burger which one would you take the free ticket on Nick I would go with Burger I bet him at uh Phoenix Phoenix that’s right yep I I will definitely go with

Daniel Burger I I liked what I saw at Phoenix I know the the distance really isn’t back to where it needs to be but his driver looked great he was hitting a lot of Fairways there um irons look good and he’s a Florida guy as well isn’t he and fantastic

Yeah yeah give me give me Daniel Burger all day there Spencer I think there’s a nice upside numbers to consider with Burger I’ll go with the golfer that the market does not seem too like right now I’ll say minw Le uh there were some interesting returns

That I got for him in the projected proximity for this course like we always talk on these shows I think during the weeks where we haven’t been on minw Le for the reasons why my my model or or any of our models like didn’t necessarily like some of his proximity

Numbers I think this is a nice course fit for him where a lot of that all of a sudden those problems get alleviated a little bit and the ball striking numbers Place him inside of the top 15 so I I think you can potentially consider shooting for the stars there with MIM Le

Maybe that’s more of an answer for or DFS contests more than anything else depending on where that ownership comes in but uh I’m not necessarily sold that this is not a nice value spot for him yeah M MIM Lee is still somebody who I’m very intrigued with and I know I don’t

Understand him as well as some other golfers given that a lot of his high-end finishes in the fall were at courses where there was just no data in any facet so I’m going to be intrigued to see those ball striking numbers because in his top 10 on the PJ tour that we

Have seen in the past they’ve been very short game Reliant so I want to see more ball striking returns from him in his first season with a PJ tour card this year looking at the next wave of golfers we have Cory Connor 37 to1 joerger 37

To1 one you guys have already touched on them uh so we’ll skip those guys actually we go to Chris Kirk defending Champion here is 45 to1 Seth straa is 45 to1 Nick I know you got a ticket on him Keith Mitchell’s also 45 to one and Nick

We know you like him too we’re skipping Adam senson who’s also 45 to1 and damn it Luke list is 50 to one so Nick you don’t get a choice on any of these guys Spencer like them all Spencer between Connor joerger Chris Kirk at 45 straa 45

Keith Mitchell 45 and senson at 4 who would you most like to have a ticket on I’ll remove joer just since I already have a ticket on him uh who was that first name that you said Cory Connors Corey Connors would probably be my pick of the remaining names there I’m a

Little bit lower on some of those other options like I’m not as high on straa and list as as Nick is this week um I think Connors is ball striking does have the potential to play well but I mean then again I mean you have to make putts

To actually win a golf tournament and uh I I seem to forget that a lot of the times that I back Cory Connors I think Connor could be a sneaky play this week or next week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with he’s being two of the

Tougher courses on the PGA tour and he’s not going to have to get to 2500 to win these two weeks if he gets to 10 12500 par he’ll be in the thick of it so perhaps this could be a better time for him than some other tournaments

Especially if it gets a little bit windy looking at the last range of golfers we’ve got Bo Hustler 55 to1 Denny McCarthy 60 to1 uh we know that Nick doesn’t like him but Matthew Pavone is 60 to1 and Tom hogi is also 60 to1 so

I’ll get you guys out of here on this one among Hustler McCarthy Pavone and hogi Nick which one would you most like to have a ticket in that 55 to 60 to1 range uh was Denny McCarthy an option correct yeah Denny give me the putter Spencer I’m gonna go against my model on

This one and kind of just like trust what my eyes have been showing me with this player and the results are also forming a very similar answer I’ll say Bo Hustler um model doesn’t necessarily love some of the statistical returns and and really that just comes down to the

Proximity numbers I guess I worry ever so slightly that all of a sudden you throw them on a Florida course here you lose some of that West Coast narrative you you change some of the feel for him to where the ball striking could catch up to him but if you look at him

Specifically at this tournament 16th in 2022 60th in 2021 38th in 2020 not necessarily the best results that you would expect but also good enough form for a golfer that has really become a great player uh over the past six months here like it’s a very similar answer to

Joerger where the the trending statistics are going in the right direction so no love for Pavone who in his last two starts at the AT&T pel beach proam in the Farmers Insurance open has only been beaten by two golfers so I’m very intrigued by him just

Because he’s one of these guys who came off the DP World Tour this is his first season on the PGA tour as a full-time member and he won immediately in his third start and he said you know what I’m not playing at the Genesis Invitational I’ve already got a couple

Years on tour locked up he played at Pebble in that 54 hole tournament just haven’t seen him play a ton of golf so I’m very intrigued by Pavone really excited to see him this week and I think he could be somebody who’s also in contention at a variety of courses given

That he really doesn’t have a weakness in the bag decent driving distance and driving accuracy around tour average but really strong Putter and really strong on approach play and that plays at every golf course so very intrigued by Pavone even though you guys don’t love him this week fellas that concludes our analysis

For the tournament this week where can we find your work outside of this podcast and I’ll start with you Nick at better golf pod on Twitter and also the Best Bets article at Action Network awesome you can find that article top of our golf page as soon as

You hear this podcast drop Spencer where can the people find you this week you can find me over on Twitter at Toff Sports you can get my model over at Roto baller if you want to make some copies yourself and weigh the material how you see fit also see where I have everybody

Ranked uh you can also get all of the work that I do here at Action Network I will have my outright article tomorrow I’ll have all the in tournament bets that I do uh during the weekend so be sure to check that out if you haven’t yet

Awesome great stuff from you Spencer as always and Nick excited to hear you guys on better golf this week as I’ve been getting more into DFS been doing a lot of those double ups and head-to heads and I was first in one of those double

Up fields which means I just got to get into some bigger contests now there you go get into some tournaments and get a little different play some Chan Kim I did have I’m sure he’ll probably be popular this week won’t he yeah I think so yeah the is yeah it’s fair but uh

We’ll save him for next week maybe maybe he uh maybe he works in our favor this week and uh zigs when everybody else is zagging but you can find me on Twitter Roberto 8213 man here at Action Network so anything that has that anything that’s on the golf page I’ve taken a

Look at a couple times uh so be sure to check that out we got a lot of great work as you mentioned in the Pod earlier Jason soble had those early picks on bazen how at 80 to1 so be sure to tune into our content to get the best of the

Number especially in the outright Market and you can find me this week on PJ Tour live on ESPN plus I’ll be on the featured whole stream with Christina Kim who broadcasted the match last night on TNT so she’s going to get a big step down in her uh broadcasting partner this

Week unfortunately but excited to be with her know she’s super energetic she should be a lot of fun on the featured holes we got two of the three holes on the bear trap and then we’ll also be on the 15th hole once coverage moves to Golf Channel and NBC later in the rounds

So check us out there on ESPN plus once again thanks to everyone who makes this podcast possible especially our producers noan neher and Matt Mitchell and thanks to you the fans for tuning in every week because we couldn’t do it without you be sure to hit us up on

Twitter X whatever you want to call it if we can ever do anything to make the show better for you and with that thanks for tuning in to our show this week for the cognizant classic in the Palm Beaches and we’ll catch you next week at the Arnold Palmer invitation