2024 Cognizant Classic Picks, Research, Course Preview, Guess The Betting Odds | Fantasy Golf Picks

Pat Mayo provides the preview and makes early 2024 Cognizant Classic Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

VOTE IN THE CUSTY AWARDS: https://bit.ly/24VOTEINCCUSTYS

Get 20% off https://www.fantasynational.com/mayo with code “MAYO”
Join Mayo Media Newsletter: https://mayomedia.substack.com/

RUN THE SIMS PROPS SNIPER PACKAGE (Code “MAYO” for 10% OFF): https://www.runthesims.com/mayo
Code “MAYO” 10% OFF at Ship It Nation: https://shipitnation.com/?aff=Thepme

Sub to the Mayo Media Network: https://bit.ly/YTMMN
Use code DOP at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100: https://bit.ly/DOPPrizePicks

#PGATOUR #Fantasygolf #DraftKings #DFS #DFSGolf #Golfbetting #PGANational #CognizantClassic

SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
00:44 Quick Info
4:41 Course & Stats
17:11 History
27:05 Field
32:10 Stat Model + Results
35:32 Rollin Results + Bermuda Putting
43:57 Guess The Betting Odds

GRAYBAR — Graybar a leader in distribution of electrical, communications, data networking and industrial products, professionals across the country rely on Graybar’s Nationwide Logistics Network to get them what they need, when and where they need it, AND within budget. To view more information on their services head to graybar.com. That’s graybar.com.
6:18
MIZZEN AND MAIN — Use promo code “PATMAYO” to get 25% off purchases of $130 or more at mizzenandmain.com. That’s 25% off purchases of $130 or more with promo code “PATMAYO”.

FACTOR MEALS — Head to FACTORMEALS.com/Mayo50 and use code MAYO to get 50% off. That’s code MAYO at FACTORMEALS.com/Mayo50 to get 50% off!

Squarespace — Go to squarespace.com for a free trial, and when you’re ready to launch, go to squarespace.com/MAYO to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain.

Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
Google: http://bit.ly/GooglePodPME
Castbox: http://bit.ly/PMECastbox

A experience experience experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience cognizant classic research picks guess the odds a full preview powered by fantasy national.com fantasy.com Mayo to get yourself 20% off that’s what I would recommend to do and that happens at every single membership

Level the weekly the monthly the annual membership doesn’t matter what it is if you use fantasy national.com Mayo tons of tools all updated as of right now plus more to come in the very near future so get yourself in there fool around a little bit and try to do your own research

Because some things you’ll see on the screen you’ll see that I don’t notice because there’s not possibly a scenario where I could actually see everything going on and do all the proper research but so many people have told me with this show in particular that they’ll see

Me doing the walkthr I’ll be be talking about one thing but there’s another thing on the screen and they’ll notice that then they’ll jump over to their fantasy national account and do the research on that end that’s really the joy of this show is that people find

Things that even I’m not talking about hence why people like the video version over the audio version although I recommend that you tune in to both sub to the Mayo media Network on YouTube and sub to the Mayo media Network and specifically the pat Mayo experience on Apple podcast and Spotify that really

Helps us out a time leave a review if you’re feeling good about everything I should have the listeners League link on Monday show with Jeff I’m back from vacation hopefully Jake knap can hold on to this lead we actually hit a winner for the first time all year wouldn’t

That be nice so I just you know after he was up by six at one point on Saturday it’s like oh yeah here we go it’s going to hurt even more when he loses this on Sunday but the lead I’m filming this before the conclusion of the third round

But nap started going a bit sideways bit wonky on the back nine so hopefully wacky valaki can do everything that he normally does when I bet on him on the Euro tour and absolutely gag it away as well and then you know they both go in with like seven shot cushions and

Hopefully nap can pull it out so we’ll see where we are on Monday hopefully it’s a joyous Monday and we’ve all hit winners wouldn’t that be nice but let’s talk about the now cognizant classic no longer the Honda Honda was a the longest running sponsor on the PGA tour for the

Last 42 years it is now gone at PGA National cognizant is in which is some sort of weird New Jersey Tech firm I suppose and the field is slightly stronger than it normally is only because Rory is playing Matthew Fitzpatrick is playing and Tom Kim are playing it’s Tom Kim’s debut at the

Tournament Fitz hasn’t played since I think 2018 Rory hasn’t played since 2019 he did win this event over a decade ago lost in a playoff the year after has been like kind of horrible in this three start since two miscuts a t60 or something like that but it’s been you

Know over a half decade since he actually teed up at PGA Nationals so we’ll see where he’s coming at now the field overall it’s 144 players there was one big change at least according to the scorecard I don’t know if this is going to hold or not I’ll see when the I mean

It is the official scorecard it looks like number 10 which was previously the second most difficult hole on the course a really long over 500 yard Par Four has been extended by 30 yards and changed into a par five thus making this a par 71 now and when you see the scoring

Records like last year Chris Kirk beat Eric Cole in a playoff at minus 14 that was the lowest score to par since I think Cameo Vagas won at minus 13 in 2010 um and I would expect that you know with an extra par five and I mean it’s

Not going to be the easiest power five in the world but guys are going to make Eagles guys are going to make birdies that I would anticipate this being over minus 15 unless the weather really gets dialed up to 11 we know that there’s a

Ton of wind rain can play a huge Factor just as Shane Lowry two years ago when he lost to Seb straa on the 18th old when straa got to play it in the nice clear daylight and it was pouring rain by the time that Shane Lowry had to go

Play the whole so the elements can most definitely play a factor this week in Palm Beach Gardens but I would expect the scoring to be a bit more generous and it does actually change the way that The draftking Showdown mini Edge actually works you can read about all of

That in my column and I’ll get to it when we go over the scorecard as well but uh my free column it’s in my free newsletter Mayo media newsletter on substack if you’re just searching for it or just hit the description and you can sub to it for free and we have over

21,000 people sub to that newsletter I’d like to get that up to I don’t know 50,000 or something like that so please do it for me let me steal your email address share it around uh if you see the article pop up it should be out on

Monday afternoon after I record the show with Jeff so let’s do that let’s take a look at the course PJ National most of us know it pretty well it’s been the site of this tournament since 2007 and we’re going to get into the bear trap we’re going to get into some

Of the other hardest holes but it’s not a complete direct flight across the country from the Genesis to the PGA or to PGA National anymore we did have a brief stop in Mexico but the it’s still going to be a bit of a different scenario here there was no water on the

Course at Riviera there is a ton of water on the course at PGA National it’s now a power 71 7147 yards Bermuda grass greens first time we’ve seen those since Hawaii and they’re actually kind of completely different 7,000 square ft greens that’s about average for the PGA Tour a bit on

The higher side 60 bunkers around the course water in play on 15 of the holes the water and the sand combo do make this an extremely difficult scrambling course so the green regulation rate is only 16 60% the tour average is like 66% and the historic scrambling percentage is just

55% that’s really low and normally you would assume that short game would be the defining trait of all of the winners at PGA National because of the scrambling but you’re not really thinking about scrambling in the proper context yes being solid around the greens is always going to be important

This we know unsurprisingly no amount of chipping Wizardry can mitigate some wet t- shots a miscreen regulation this week doesn’t mean you’re trying to get it up and down from 15 yards off The Fringe yes that might be one of the scenarios but it could be just as likely you’re

Trying to get it up and down from a buck 75 away after a drop not every time obviously but I’m always thinking the worst casee scenarios when it comes to my golf the omnipresent AA lurs menacingly much like you know a mysterious neighbor in a kids movie

Except the water at PJ National doesn’t secretly have a heart of gold it’s built on squares on the scorecard and crooked numbers it’s unforgiving there are two ungodly difficult stretches on the scor card and yes that’s plural difficult stretches there’s the bear trap which we

All know about 15 16 and 17 it gets its own dedicated TV feed it has its own statue everyone knows how tough that’s going to to play but holes five six and seven actually play as a more difficult three hole stretch since 2007 uh each of them finish right

Around 64 Strokes over par as a stretch give or take a few Strokes that makes them the third most difficult and the fourth most difficult three-hole stretches on the PGA tour for non- majors of course six seven five six and seven doesn’t have a catchy name like

The bear trap but when you see where your guys blew up if they shot an 80 it’s more than likely on those holes the bear trap is like death by a thousand paper cuts well 5 to seven just kind of yank you off the page it’s never good so take a quick Gander

How your guys are doing after number seven and you might be in the clear unless you’re Ryan Palmer Ryan Palmer’s making his 500th career start this week he is the worst player in the history of the bear trap he is an ungodly 48 overpow he was actually one under in the

Bear trap in the first round a year ago before he played 15 and 17 at five over with two water balls in the second round to miss the cut this is annually one of the toughest courses on the PGA tour Waters in play on 15 of the holes as I

Mentioned over 6,400 balls of plunged into the water since moving to this course in 2007 um it’s just you need to be somewhat lucky and you need to be it’s weird because bombers have actually had a lot of success at this tournament outside of the Matt Jones year the Matt

I mean that was such an outlier tournament anyway Matt Jones just went crazy on everyone but that Year let me scroll up here I have it in my notes uh scoring was tough Jones didn’t 17 of the top 18 finishers gained in good drives that week but six of the top 12

Finishers actually lost distance on the field but they all gained on Fairways but when you start thinking back to some of the other finishers be it sunjay or I mean sunjay more of an accuracy guy over a distance guy still plus distance but not by a lot then you have like Keith

Mitchell who beat Brooks down the stretch Justin Thomas even Ricky at the time that he won straa Chris Kirk kind of shifts back the other way shorer off the tea fantastic with his wedges so you can kind of pair up players in different ways from that regard if they’re shorter

I know they need to be really good from 125 and in 100 and in and 75 and you can go look at those buckets on fantasy National if you really want to uh but the bombers just have an easier time and because there are forced layups at this

Course then we’re going to be looking at different things where the accuracy improves on some of the bombers whereas they still have you know shorter irons into like if they had a three-wood or an iron off the te and they’re all trying to get into the force layup area as even

Some of the short hitters then all of a sudden they still have a shorter iron into the green and it just really comes into play on the par fivs and some of the longer par fours where it’s just a lot easier to hit a five iron than

Trying to hit like a five wood into some of these things and that’s where you’re really going to get your scoring you need to be able to handle the long par threes avoid the water especially on the par 3es and really take advantage of the par fives and that’s just how this

Tournament goes every single year and just make sure that you don’t putt yourself out of the tournament much like Justin Su a year ago where he finally had his like one amazing ball striking performance last year and the guy was like the best putter on the PGA tour he

Just bled Strokes on the green he came in fifth because his ta green was so good it’s just funny that’s how it works out the one week that you actually need him to putt to win a tournament he just can’t do it the cutline for this tournament 144 players by the way it’s

Been plus two plus three plus 2 plus 4 plus three plus 6 the past 6 years with an extra par five I mean the overall score isn’t going to change you’re still going to shoot what you’re going to shoot but relative to par I would expect

To see maybe even maybe plus one a little bit lower than it’s been in years past just because to par it’s going to be a little bit easier so let’s jump over to Fantasy national.com right now and take a look at the scorecard it’s not going to be completely

Uh what we recognize here because we have not updated it because the official official scorecard has not come out like it will on Monday we just have the first look at it right now so number 10 is still playing as a power four 508 a it’s the second most difficult hole on the

Course but if that changes to a power five that’s 540 it’s going to be like the third easiest hole on the course where you see like a 7.1% birdie rate that’s going to be like a it’ll probably end up being like a 4% Eagle rate something like that which will maybe

Actually make it the easiest hole on the course maybe it probably won’t end up being that High they’ll make some sort of concession to how that hole was redone to drop the eagle rate maybe a more difficult pin position but you’re probably going to see I know a birdie

Rate of 25% plus which maybe even higher maybe like 35 which will’ll put it on par with number three and number 18 the par fivs which are the two easiest holes on the course The draftking Showdown mini mix that I told you about the mini

Hack it used to be you really wanted to start on number 10 cuz you would you know maybe you birdie you know 11% birdie rate in the bear trap on number 17 get lucky there 18 is the second easiest hole on the course number one is

Was the third easiest hole on the course you have these back-to-back ones with a birdie percentage of 32% and 177% and then you would have to just kind of get lucky on number two it had a 12% birdie rate or happen to get lucky on number 17

Whereas you would run into this like brick wall on number 10 being so difficult with the lowest uh birdie or better percentage on the course at 7.1% now that’s shifted to a par five you actually have a nice little lead in with 8 n and 10 uh they’re two of the five

Easiest holes on the course and you might get number 10 as one of them as well so you get three of the six easiest back to back to back so starting on number one all of a sudden is probably where you want to be now if it doesn’t

End up being a par five despite what it says you can never believe that’s the only thing I’m hesitant about here is that you can never believe the PGA Tour when they announce something because it just might be false um cuz sometimes they don’t seem to have a clue what

They’re doing uh the four par 3s obviously you have the very two tough ones on the back although they’re the two shortest ones just a ton of water uh and it’ll get you but all of them have a bogey percentage of over 15% uh the Double Or Worse rate on number 15 is

Over 8% over it’s 7% on number 17 the Double Or Worse rate is a little bit more mitigated on five and seven although they’re the two longer ones you just don’t see a whole lot of birdies at that if you can make your pars get out of Dodge very high bogey percentage but

That’s what you’ll see if you can tread water on the par 3es at this course you’re going to have a good time cuz the power fivs are yet difficult at all even when we take a look at the par fours you’ll see like not many of them are

Super long all the ones I mean number two plays about average on the course slightly overpar then you have number 11 you have number 14 number six and those will absolutely eat your lunch when it comes to trying to score so just try to tread water on all of these holes and

All of a sudden you’re going to be in a great situation if you can make birdie I mean going into it going into last year if you can just kind of play the entire course even and birdie all of the Power FES throughout the week you end up at

Minus8 like that’s not a terrible score I’m just trying to think like that would have won like sunjay won it minus six Keith Mitchell won at minus N9 Thomas when he beat Luke list in that playoff won at minus8 Adam Scott won at – 9 Harrington won at minus 6 now last

Year-4 was a huge outlier 14 – 10 – 12 the past three or so maybe it was getting a little bit easier as the setup goes and it should be a bit deeper again with an extra power five on the card but just dominating on the par fives should

Have you at basically at least inside the top five throughout the course of the week so just dominate those and you’ll be Off to the Races just a little bit overall the par 3s as I mentioned all of them had a bogey rate over 15% a birdie rate under 12% Kirk bogied number

17 on Thursday that was the only stroke he drop on his way to to Victory on the par 3es a year ago so that’s kind of how he got the job done the par fours number six as we talked about it can be a day

Runer it has a double or Worse rate of 7% which is just kind of crazy Kirk was minus one on number six a year ago it’s just funny that that’s those are the two key things tread waterer on the par 3es actually play the most what will

Probably end up being the most difficult hole now number six at minus one and it’s going to be hard to beat you Eric Cole almost got us that huge cash last year just couldn’t get up and down on the playoff to end up winning it but uh

That’s where was it on the 72nd hole now I can’t even remember I remember Kirk lodged behind the tree in the playoff and then chipped it out into wedge range and put it to like a foot and made his birdie and that was the end of it I

Think Cole couldn’t get it up and down on that one but he had a chance to get it up and down on the 70c hole and missed the putt that sucked uh yeah so when we kind of take a look at how the course plays itself out we see that you

Know the longer you’d think that this would be a course that had because you know was a power 70 it’s only 7100 y you think it would lean more towards the shorter approaches but it really doesn’t like the plurality still come from 175 to 200 there’s a lot of 200 plus almost

20% on the course uh and then 50 to 175 so 150 plus I mean that’s not crazy to think about but it is interesting that 175 to 200 is the where the main bucket actually comes from and a lot of that has to do uh with the driving distance

At this course as you can see at 273 as I mentioned off the T versus the average tour driving distance of 284 and like even we saw I think it was Phoenix I can’t remember if it was Phoenix or if it was Tory Pines where the average Drive is like over 300 it

Was Phoenix where it’s over 300 yards this one really swings back the other way uh the average G proximity of the hole is lower than it is for your average Tour event but you only hit the green you know 50 60% of the time so you hit the greens greens and regulation far

Less scrambling as I mentioned down at 55 5% driving accuracy a little bit lower uh and the cutline again always kind of overpower it’s never been underpower hasn’t even been even since the time it went to PJ National in 2007 let’s jump over to to see how the

Tournament history has done at this course over the years and when we try to take a look back at how Chris Kirk we can take a look at how he got it done in a second but let’s just kind of review everything that went down the past few

Years Kirk beat Eric Cole this playoff his 62 on Friday was the round of the tournament it carried him it is the only round where he actually beat Eric Cole for the entire tournament the four best Putters in the field all cash top five paydays the other guy was Justin Sue who

Came in fifth despite dropping a ton of Strokes on the green so Kirk Cole Duncan and Lowry Lowry has finished top five at this event each of the past two years as has Seb straa and you see Lee Hodges has finished inside the top 14 each of the

Past two years as well that’s the three best over the the past two years of anyone in this tournament substa beat Lowry coming down the stretch don’t forget that’s the year that Daniel Berger I think he gagged a five stroke lead going into the final round and it

Was just it was bad news if you had money on Daniel Burger it was just heart-wrenching to see but Burger does have three top four finishes in seven career starts at this tournament and his driving and irons were actually quite good in Phoenix from what we saw we

Didn’t get like we didn’t have great stats uh from the American Express but he beat up on the easy courses that week at Farmers on the south course he dropped a bunch of Strokes uh with his approach the chipping hasn’t been very good however he was 14th in approach in

Phoenix he gained off the tea the most since he’s returned from his 18-month layoff because of his back injury and that was only with like a marginal gain on The green6 Strokes gained on the Green in Phoenix he dropped almost three around the greens now over the course of

His career he’s been around Break Even but when we take a look at how he’s done at the former Honda Classic uh in his career just look at how many strokes he’s gained putting at this event he’s got these greens figured out gained in six of his seven starts at this

Tournament and in each of his past five starts he’s gaining almost three Strokes putting on the greens gains off the te every single year uh that he’s played it uh and even approach has been very good and rarely does he drop a ton of Strokes around the green he did in 2017 but

Outside of that his worst performance was his T4 in 202 20.2 Strokes not that big of a deal generally he’s round Break Even or positive so obviously I’m going to like Daniel burer this week it all just kind of depends on what his number comes in at we guess the odds he was

Kind of the hardest one to figure out uh towards the end you can see uh there’s Alex noren he finished T5 in 2022 and obviously he had just missed the playoff the year that Justin Thomas ended up winning in 2018 as well Seb straa won at

Minus 10 in 2022 that beat Shane Lowry by one stroke he was seven off the lead after Thursday but fired to 64 on Friday I know a lot of people bet him pre-tournament not me because I never hit winners and a lot of people actually re-up on him after the first round

Because I believe if we go and take a look at it and try to effort this a little bit I’m pretty sure he gained a bunch te green that year and was absolutely putrid on the greens I don’t have that let’s just switch that over to The Strokes game

Model just for a second so I can see each of the ones that I’m looking for here at PGA National let’s tune into SD comes third in the model in The Strokes gain model rank coming into this tournament at just this course but actually that’s not what I’m looking for

What I’m looking for is his 18 rounds at this course the year that he won 2022 first round I guess not why was everyone on him no idea why but he ended up just turning it on with the putter after that I have no idea why people were live

Bating it maybe his number was super large I mean I guess there was a reason that I didn’t do that but uh yeah the minus 7 in round two is really going to go a long way so retract that from the record I do remember people live betting

Him after that round again not quite sure why but maybe he was heating up maybe it was early in the second round when he was going on a birdie streak and the and everything hadn’t adjusted as of yet can’t quite remember my my memory is foggy coming off a vacation for the top

Seven in proximity 200 plus to the whole finished inside the top 10 and of the 24 finishers 20 two of them gained on approach only low and kitama uh Lowry and kyama were top three in approach on the final leaderboard you can see kyama was or Kama is not on the field this

Week so he’s not going to show up on this list uh in 2021 I think this is the biggest outlier year that we’ve had because Matt Jones who has left for live beat Brandon haggy by five Strokes CT pan Denny McCarthy Russell Henley all finish inside the top five you got some

Sam Ryder up there Ryder’s been in top 10 in each of his past two starts at this course did not play it a year ago you see Vegas like makes the cut almost every single year here as well uh kind of up and down this week in Mexico

Hopefully he can finish strong on Sunday not that I have a placement on him I would just like to see him continue to play a little bit better we’ll take a look into his stat we can actually take a look into his stats right now just at

PGA National tune in Vegas just see how he’s done putting over the years I assume it must be pretty good and gained six in one round it’s been up and down but overall you see some big negatives on there but generally very positive at this course over the years so good for

Johnny Vegas you know I such a [ __ ] for Johnny Vegas he’s just going to cost me money I think I’ve bet on him like five times a year every year for the past 10 years I think he has a win since like 2008 or something crazy like that so he

Just bleeds money he did cash that each way at the 3M last year or two years ago whenever that was when I was big on him so maybe that copy back to even on him lifetime but this is yeah the Matt Jones here he shot a 61 in the first round and

Basically just cruised the entire way that was his only round better than 68 the entire week uh but he didn’t card anything worse than 70 and just it was never in doubt the entire week it was kind of crazy six of the top 12 finishers as I mentioned lost distance

Off the tea that year but yeah I I think that’s more of an outlier year to look at it was a very very weak field that year as well sunjay the year that we had the DFS open right before Co started the week before co uh many people will joke

That the DFS open started Co I didn’t get it until like two years later so I I guess it didn’t happen there that was a lot of fun shout out to Bar off and Joe idon who put that whole thing together I’d love to do it again if someone else

Wants to organize it but I think this is more or less what we’re going to see this year with the way that it was set up with maybe more of an emphasis on what we saw from the par FES it was minus 6 so it played a bit more

Difficult and you have a lot of your difficult course players sunjay wins at minus 6 he beat mck Hughes who got like the most ridiculous relief ever on the 72nd hole benan at finished T4 that year Burger Henley Woodland hubard like hubard this week coming in obviously

Playing some great golf hub’s made his past four cuts at this tournament as well Bob Shelton Matt mcney Ryan Palmer there he is Shane Lowry Low’s good at this course not great but good at this course Vegas straa Poston Bo hosler just a lot of the guys that are playing in

The tournament this time around are there bud collie as well how did bud bud C actually did pretty well on Phoenix in his first start in like half a decade or whatever the hell it was he end up coming he wilted over the weekend but it

Was nice that he made the cut and a lot of it was just putting related as we saw with zalot Taurus in his first start back and even Burger in his first start back chipping and putting seem to be the things that come around a little bit longer you know more pressure-filled and

It’s hard to replicate on the Range and even we saw it from tiger that the chipping and putting and a shank or two uh it’s hard to replicate that in practice rounds you need to get real actual rounds in before that starts to come back so we’ll see how he ends up

Doing I have no idea if he played in Mexico or not because you know I didn’t do the fullest amount of research I just knew I wanted to bet bombers and Jake knap appeared at the top of the list and I had my Tony fow future which probably

Isn’t going to win uh sunj was 66 on Friday this was the one that we actually live bet because we didn’t I didn’t turn on my Wi-Fi in because I was sitting remember sitting next to Tambo we had bet 365 accounts as we were just kind of talking everything through after the

First round and we were both able to not connect to Wi-Fi from our cell phone turn off geolocation so it just thought that we were back where we’re from we were able to reup on sunj at like 80 to1 after the first round that was awesome

Uh but I don’t I think that the gambling Services have gotten a bit more savier over time than that and they don’t allow you to do that anymore what else happened uh the top 16 finishers all gained on approach five of the top seven in approach all finish inside the top 10

14 of the top 16 gained in proximity from 175 to 200 the key proximity range 19 of the top 20 gain Strokes on power 3 so these are all things that we can look at in 2019 killer Keith got his win over two guys that I bet Ricky Fowler and

Brooks K I think I had three bets that week those were two of them I think this was the year either Palmer or the glove or maybe it was Brennan steel was like plus six or seven on Friday and rallied to make the cut what a hero hero

Performance that was you see Russell Henley is a former winner at this event he hasn’t played each of the past two years but had two top 10s and a top 20 the three years previous and this was the site I believe leave cuz he won at

Sonyy he won here that’s just part of like the loop that Russell Henley does really well it was back in like 2012 or something like that back before like I actually have like in-depth breakdowns of everything 14 of the 15 finishers all gain Strokes off the tea furick was the

Only one who is an exception to that that year and what else for the top six gained on the field from 175 to 200 and proximity from 200 plus so that’s what’s happened at this tournament over the years we start taking a look at the field itself I’ll click back over to my

Model for PGA National which probably needs a little bit of updating to be perfectly honest with you and we’ll do that as we get to that part of the show Rory Fitz and Tom Kim are your top players in the field in terms of world ranking but screw the world rankings

They’re not even fair to people on live I don’t really care uh those are the three best players in the field uh you also have Cam young Seb stroer Chris Kirk sunjay those past three were winners at this course in the past minwoo I feel like minwoo I bet minwoo

At this tournament last year and I think he just dropped a bunch of Strokes putting if my recollection has it but you know that hasn’t always been good for me let’s see Honda no he he lost strok he actually played pretty well gained a bunch off

The tea as he want to do gained a bunch of putting as he’s want to do this is like his best approach week ever PL plus point6 and bled a bunch around the greens his approach is like actually worrisome it’s horrendous and you think he would be better but just he’s driving

And putting he set up a lot like I don’t want to say Prime Bryson cuz Prime Bryson was awesome but it’s one of those events where he just needs to like crack like right around like two strokes and have one of his outlier Spike weeks off

The tea and on the greens and boom he’s Off to the Races that’s what you’re looking for for Min wo he might be overvalued going into this event to be perfectly honest uh Rose is back Connors Lowry Henley benan I like a look for Connors I don’t recall him like every

Playing here he does rank out pretty well in the modeling but I just he’s played well in Florida over the course of his career let’s see and yeah the ball striking is about where it’s always been it’s been very good it’s trending back upwards that’s always nice to see

Can’t putt for [ __ ] but that’s nothing new as he played Honda yeah just constantly bleed Strokes on the green great it’s funny that he actually putts well at API you’d think that he would play better at this tournament because you know he’s so accurate off the tea

You know his long irons are really good I don’t know what is I guess I guess you can’t build much momentum when you putt like [ __ ] all the time benan Russell Henley Shane Lowry all playing Burger Rasmus hoard is in the field this is his first PGA start of 2024 he’s played on

The DP World Tour five times so far he hasn’t finished worse than t11 it’s his first time in the tournament his best finish was a second at the Raz Al kalahad Championship where he lost to thorbjorn olison who just got a master’s invite and Thunder bear won that

Tournament he played in Mexico this week he made the cut no idea how he’s doing over there but he went T8 t21 and a win through the Middle East sng to kick off the DP World Tour uh he’s making his tournament debut so another guy who

Might be buried a little bit in the let’s see in the odds board let’s see thorbjorn olison thunderbear and see how he’s doing other guys that are in the field of reference like hosler list Ricky Eric Cole Ryan Fox matu pavon the leader in the FedEx

Cup 10 things is in Def field again this week Rose and paval skipped the Genesis to play this event which I just thought was really weird and this used to be the site where a lot of the Internationals and Euros especially used to make their first PGA start but with the Signature

Events a lot of the top guys just come over and play now anyway so we take a look through Thor bjor and olison on the PGA tour uh you know nothing much to write home about he had that nice run when the hell was it the match play he

Won the World Cup in 2016 when he knocked out tiger uh in the quarterfinals I think it was whenever the hell that was I think it was 2019 yeah and tiger ended up winning the Masters and thunderbear you know was around in some of these Tournaments has

Never really made a mark outside of that one tournament on the PGA tour dri is playing this tournament for the first time and his career senson EVR a lot of water for EVR so watch out on that front gim Reaper Poston playing I mention Mark hubard Vegas is back Davis Thompson’s

Been playing some decent golf as of late Michael Kim our guy playing in this tournament so a lot uh of decent players I actually think this is a little bit better than it’s been in the past I did say that we would take a look at The Strokes gained

From last year as well you can see Chris Kirk 9.2 Strokes TD green it was Su Lowry Brandon W David lingor Chris Kirk those are the top five TD green Ryan gerrer the Monday qualifier that did really well MJ Duffy who had a really nice first round in Mexico coming off

Injury I did not have a very good round two or round three I think he was dfl of all guys that made the cut when I checked on Saturday uh in terms of approach it was Wallace where’s Wallace wall Ed like winning like two weeks later yeah in

Like corales or put the can whatever the hell it was and then played really well in Texas too I believe Brandon woo straa Kyle Stanley Kyle Stanley good for him he tried to qualify for Liv this year didn’t qualify uh lingor and we take a look at the putting that’s where it

Really came through Ben Taylor fifth place Eric Cole second place Anders Albertson gained 8.3 stroke butting he came in 63rd because he couldn’t do anything else Ben Martin fifth T dunks third they all gained over six Strokes putting then you had Chris Kirk gain 5.6 that was good enough uh to have himself

Come through maybe if Johnny Vegas could have like chipped the ball okay he would have been fine as well that’s what we looked at a year ago let’s dig in to the modeling to see if we can unearth some decent players this time around so one

Thing that I do want to change we’ll take a look at how I had it set up in the past so Approach at 25 ball striking driving distance and Fairways gain so that’s my version of total driving 2/3 for distance 1/3 for Fairways gained instead of putting in

Total driving that’s what I have opportunities gained for actual scoring purposes par fours par fivs proximity 175 to 200 at 5% proximity 200 plus I’ll have all of this in my newsletter if you want if you’re listening to the audio version and trying to see it I’m going

To throw putting into this mix as well so I’m going to throw in SG putt uh and I actually have a putting model set up that we’ll look at here in a second just kind of wait that out you know 6% whatever it might be we could probably

Tone down approach a little bit to 21% only because I have opportunities gain and two proximity ones in there too so yeah opportunities game that that looks pretty good to me let’s update the model and see who it pops out over the past 24 rounds at all courses Rory

Pendrith hogy didn’t help pendrith this week Eric Cole EVR senson Poston gim Reaper matchu pavon and Davis Thompson those are the top 10 for the week uh Mark hubard Luke list I like hubard coming in I think he feel like he he had some spike performances I think he had a

Pretty good like approach round going in Mexico that’s something I can review more and when I have the update for the newsletter it’ll have all the updated stuff from Mexico because we actually do have strokes gained from there yeah it was at Pebble got himself into Pebble

You know did did putt pretty well dominated in the soth course at Farmers that’s really crazy and actually had good good approach and good chipping in Phoenix despite the putting not being there but has played pretty well as I mentioned at Honda over the years 42nd 15th 46 11th like every other year

Fortunately this is the other year so hopefully he can get that going Mark HBA hovert my guy hopefully he ends up doing something here who else is down here Connors Kirk CZ this on paper should be a really good sez course it’s just he’s not hitting in as many Fairways as you

Would like at the moment you know the the irons tend to be pretty good he scores really well on per fours uh the driving is just so horrendous but he is 11th right now over the past 24 rounds in approach that’s a good look for him

You do just think like hey maybe I’ll dump on Rory and that will be the end of it Tom Kim as well I wonder how Tom Kim has been doing here Tom Kim 16th in the model over the past 24 rounds it seems like he’s playing a lot worse than that

But 24th at the Genesis couldn’t putt 17th in Phoenix the approach was great bad at Pebble Beach bad at the American Express bad at the century but then he has some good performances you know he won the Shriners so that’s going to be pretty good interesting stuff here all

Right I don’t have any like specific leans on anyone right away like where does Burger rate out here Burger he’s 32nd the driving distance but the fairways is driving distance bad Fairways good that’s pretty good the bogey avoidance hasn’t been good but a lot of that can relate to putting to be

Perfectly honest with you uh one thing that we can look at one of the features here the rolling model we’ll put that up and because I don’t have strokes gain total up here we’re going to go to my PGA National model and see how that does

And try to see the results of the Rolling report so with everything weighted around the same um over the rolling model hogi actually rates out the best than pavon then Rory Cole list gim pendrith Connors cam Young Adam Fenson that’s what we’re looking at here with with each of the ranges from last

Four last 8 last 12 last 24 50 and 100 all weighted around the same um so that’s always something you can you can put in the rowing model and then you can add this to your mixed condition model uh by just putting in the model rank if

You really want to uh with all of that uh that’s one of the things that I like to do when building a mixed condition model but I do have the mixed condition model uh a little bit different here um this time around because when we take a

Look at the mixed condition model uh I actually did this up before show so it wouldn’t take a whole lot of time to do let’s go over to the mixed condition model and it’s really going to show you Bermuda putting so I Bermuda putting weighted at 100% in this model but the

Other four categories I have are the last 12 at this course in particular in Strokes game putting the past 36 on Bentgrass the past 36 on POA and just the last 75 overall so we can get a sense of someone who putts better on Bermuda versus some of the other

Surfaces so as you can see in the top five here mcne dietry Remy Montgomery and Justin Su it’s funny because Justin Su was so bad on the greens here a year ago but one of the funny things about oh that doesn’t seem like it’s good at all

The guys who don’t putt well here would putt really well on Bermuda that’s not necessarily the entire thing like McNeely had two really bad rounds he only actually loses .1 Strokes putting per round that’s good for 97th in this field diet Tre and Taylor Montgomery have zero rounds so

They just ranked 59 so they actually haven’t done anything so they’re waiting as a little bit down Ry had two really bad rounds uh two years ago where he lost over four strokes putting but actually gained last year so one bad year is weighing him down because of the

Sample really small he only has four total rounds as just Justin so he only has four total rounds of putting once we start getting into the other players you can see where it matches up a little bit better like badley despite being a very good putter has the full compliment of

The rounds at this course just has never really putted all that well but you can see someone like Ben Griffin has a distinct split between he’s eighth overall past 36 on Bermuda 106th on bent 128th on POA so that is something to kind of take a look at hey Ben Griffin

Might be a little bit of a better look here and we kind of go see what his results have been like well the driving and approach play has been horrendous maybe that’s not the look that you want to be going with with Ben Griffin this week but does putt a little bit better

On berm Denny just putts well overall let’s see another guy who’s a bit better Ben Taylor who did finish inside the top five year ago 15th over the past 36 on Bermuda 95th on Bentgrass so that’s a big outlier in that way Ryan Fox puts better on Bermuda I don’t know how many

Total rounds that is but we can go take a look at the Ryan Fox portfolio here portfolio what has he done well well he’s gaining point6 Strokes per round uh on Bermuda losing on bent and losing on POA so you kind of see he putted really

Well at the Players he puted really well at API last last year what else was Bermuda last year nope nothing else so limited rounds but has put well in Florida at least over the part of his career you think with his bomber status that he would be a little bit better so

We also have Patton kazy better on Bermuda uh Nicholas etaria has not puted well at this tournament better on Bermuda than anywhere else just a abject failure on bent and on POA I’m not going to count pass pow because you get very few tournaments on those things um yeah

And that’s kind of it is the guys who really stand out between the best Putters over the past you know 12 rounds at this course in particular Dylan woo Ben Taylor Denny Eric Cole Daniel haer Berger the top five Kirk Hodges uh Keith Mitchell Patton kazy Johnny Vegas round

Out the top 10 you also have Matthew Fitzpatrick who has not played this tournament in ages but still rates out really well have a feeling noren’s going to be a very popular look this week too just based on what we’ve seen so that’s the Bermuda putting we can fill out and

Mixed condition model however we want hopefully o can be a little bit better too that would be very nice uh let’s take a look at the rank take a look at the model pass 24 and just see who’s like the worst if any good names are really down there don’t see anyone of

Like no Fowler Fowler rates out horrendously however he’s been playing in more difficult tournaments where a lot of these guys have they don’t get Mexico I mean Ricky did get the American Express those stats aren’t counted I don’t believe he played in the Sony which was an easier tournament so he’s

Not fing up some decent stats against weaker Fields he’s generally playing in more difficult Fields the only other thing that I would kind of take a look at here if we just go to I suppose we can take a look at the time machine as well the time machine stats in yeah

Honda time machine from last year just to see how it would have done sometimes it’s always nice to try to double check your work to see how the model actually would have spit it out Nick Hardy would have been number one based on these stats going into it he did not play well

He got cut Ben Griffin was second in the model he ended up coming in eighth bramlet missed the cut so it wasn’t very good Gordon uh what did he end up coming let’s see oh no it was the MCM rank how did he end up actually finishing now Ben Griffin was

T21 uh will Gordon was 42nd sunjay was t42 so not a good year for the model whatsoever we just got to kind of sort by position we’ll see Chris Kirk was ranked 18th Shane Lowry was ranked eth Ben Taylor was ranked 16th he actually performed pretty well he came T5 other

Than that it was just a lot of Misses cam Percy and that’s the thing too there’s a lot of variance at this course when I talked to Tambo on Wednesday about it because of all the water you just get some really wonky results like two bad shots can sink you at a

Tournament that’s why going back and trying to factor in too much course history is really difficult at this tournament let’s see straa was 45th in the model of the year that he won Lowry was 11th kyama came in third he was 109th Burger was second came in fourth

Mitchell was eighth came in ninth other than that again very spotty so maybe not the best week to trust the modeling in this sense that you might want to go off the board a little bit uh and try to just you know take some educated guesses on either players that have putted well

Um on Bermuda or played well at this course historically but have one or two really outlier type performances in terms of Mis Cuts that’s what we’ve seen at the Players Championship over time or valpar is the one that’s been a bit more sticky but players you have guys with

Like great course history you just have horrendous like molari and Paul Casey used to be the best and be like oh yeah they’re super consistent here oh they came dead last this year cuz that happens from time to time this year seems to be a little bit better Matt

Jones won he was 17th haggy like no one was on Henley ended up coming in third tringali was number one in the model that year he came in 13th um sunjay was 13th came in eighth so yeah so hopefully it’s probably like I’m guessing that the 2020 was probably

The best model versus results tournament that there was let’s see here the Finish yeah sunjay was 11th he won Fleetwood was 21st he came in third Woodland was third he came in eighth so even that year it still wasn’t all that spectacular it had a lot of Euro guys

Though this was the year that Steel rebounded by the way 2020 when he started out horrifically and ended up rebounding um what else yeah benan was 23rd came in fourth Burker was 24th came in four this one was a little bit better not great by any stretch of the

Imagination but you do have Fleetwood played Prime I think this was his first North American start ditto with Fleetwood yeah I think nor norin was up there and that was the year that was the year that Justin Thomas won that he was up there so he had a few Euros kind of

Spike up so maybe hoard and hoard Fox minwoo and thunderbear would kind of qualify for that Jorge Campo is in the field this week as well uh just in case you were wondering so now it’s time to guess the odds for the cognizant classic Rory

Is the best player in the field he is going to be the favorite how short is that number going to be though he was just behind Scotty at Riviera I’m guessing he comes in at 7 to1 it could be lower than that but in a 144 player

Field not a limited field despite the lack of overall Talent at Palm Beach Gardens at PGA National I do think he comes in at 7 to1 Fitzpatrick probably second at 12 to1 and then you have Tom Kim cam young and Sun J I’m guessing round out the next three names all sub

20 to1 maybe they end up at 20 who knows I have Tom Kim at 16 cam young and sunjay both at 18 to1 then you got the 20s got straa Min woo Lee Russell Henley those three all at 25 to one then I have coners Lowry Eric Cole and Chris Kirk

The defending champion and the guy he beat in the playoff a year ago all at 33 to1 I also have Daniel burger at 35 he is one of the most difficult people to try to guess this week if the number is 40 or above I’m betting Daniel burger if

It’s like in the 20s which it could feasibly open as considering he has three top four finishes in seven career starts at this course and trended up a little bit in Phoenix that maybe the books are thinking that he’s back they don’t want to post a big number on him

But 35 to1 I’d probably be in on that who am I kidding so yeah 35 to1 for Daniel Burger I got Rose benan Bo hosler and JT Poston all at 40 to1 Rasmus hoard as mentioned before 45 to1 playing his first start in America this is not

Nikolai hoard this is Rasmus hoard five starts on the DP World Tour so far in 2024 and he has five top 11 finishes no finish worse than 11th had a T2 over in the Middle East to thunderbear Thor Gan olison who got a master’s invite and is

In the field this week too I have him at 50 to1 as an open Ricky fer matu pavon the leader in the ftic cup standings right now I have both at 45 to1 as well and then you have a bunch of guys who could be in the 40s they could be in the

70s I have no idea names like Ryan Fox and Tom hogi Thomas dietry Mark hubard AE batia Jake nap we’ll see how he finishes in Mexico um if he comes second you know his odds will be better than if he comes in first he might take the week

Off if he ends up winning having qualified for the Masters in the Signature Events all the way through so who knows how the PGA Tour rookie is going to work Gary Woodland in the field as well not quite sure how the books are going to price him not really playing

All that great a golf coming back from his brain injury but you know starting to show a semblance of his former self I’d guess he comes in probably opens at 75 to1 and drifts towards 100 that would be my guess for the cognizant classic that will do it on the pat Mayo

Experience thank you all for watching smash a like if you want to get in on fantasy National fantasy national.com Mayo rate and review the audio podcast or at least just sub to it if you haven’t done that already and subscribe to the free newsletter where the entire article will be too thank you

All for watching I’m Pat Mayo I’ll see you next time P Mayo experience experience