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I guess the Jake naap people were right let’s break down this showdown contest welcome back to Bray burs DFS one of the best places for PGA NFL MLB and NBA news and of course DFS if you don’t know by now I’m Walt if you haven’t already please like And
Subscribe to my Channel all right y’all so I got a little bit of a cold I told my basketball people that my NBA DFS basketball people that earlier today and things have not got and better however I was not going to get in the way of my inaugural Showdown video of the year
When I first created my C my uh Channel last May the first things that I did were create Showdown videos so when I’m looking at Showdown before I get into any analysis I remind myself of four things first of all round three is the first round where we have enough data
Where we can really start to dig in because when you think of round one Showdown that’s that’s all historical data and then round two we have a little bit but in some cases these tournaments are on more than one course so you really need two rounds of data before
You can really start to dig in so that’s the first thing I like to uh to to tell myself the second thing is it’s only one round so there are players that I would never play for a full tournament that are AOK okay to play in Showdown so just
Remember that now you don’t want to go crazy because in general you’re only going to have one punt or you know player under 7,000 that’s going to be in the winning lineup but it is okay maybe you’ll have two because any professional golfer can be you know play well for one round the
Third thing I tell myself is there is some Game Theory involved in DFS is totally different than bding because in Bedding you and all of your friends can place the same beted and if everything goes crazy the house goes broke but you’re not really playing your friends
You’re playing with your friends in DFS there’s only a limited pot that is available so you need to it’s a little bit of game three involved what is this person doing you know uh what what are they doing what is that you know content creator telling so you have to remember
That there is some game 3 involved in DFS it’s not just straight you know statistics and then number four the final thing I remember when I’m playing any round of DFS as far as Showdown is there is some luck and there’s some feeling in your gut and sometimes you
Got to go for it because when we look when you’ve looked at some of these winning lineups whether it be NBA DFS PGA MLB whatever you said to yourself I mean there’s no way how did they get that lineup and then sometimes it’s an Optimizer sometimes there’s some kind of
Tool but a lot of times it’s just some gut and luck that’s why I like to tell players go with your first instinct because it’s the worst thing in the world to change your lineup and then see that that lineup did well so knowing those four things knowing about the data
We have knowing that you only have to do well one round knowing there’s some Game Theory and knowing there’s some gut and there’s some luck we can jump into my analysis and the first thing I like to do you can see on the screen I like to
Look at The Strokes gain data especially when we have it and we can see that off the T which is very important with a course this long is Vincent Norman we also have Jimmy Stanger we have Kevin doy we have Jake nap who has been amazing a lot of people talked him up
And has lived up to it and we have Nikolai hoard all right so next we want to have approach and the people that have been doing well once again that Jake naap guy again he’s uh on the You Know cover of my thumbnail you have Scott Stallings you have Justin low you
Have Matt Wallace and you have Austin ecro and so then we have strokes gained around the green and you have Chad Remy you have Harry Hall you have Aaron badley you have Carl Yun a lot of people were on him and then you have chessen Hatley
All right so now let’s get to putting and when it comes to a course like this where it really matters this is a birdie Fest if you can’t putt you are not going to win and then we have Sammy balamaki we have Chan Kim we have Mark Hubbert
You have uh Alvaro Ortiz and you have Matt Wallace all right so now that we’ve looked at those looked at that data what I’m going to do is I’m G to give you my recommendation from each tier the tier above 10,000 the 9,000 the 8,000 the
7,000 and 6000s and then we’ll end this video by looking at some historically good round three players so above 10,000 now see we’re getting into the game theory Tony F now if you put Tony F now in your actual weekl long lineup you’re feeling a
Little bit salty right now a lot of us looked at the data I actually said on this channel he had the third best recent form which is good but considering that he was 12,000 he’s 11,900 for Showdown down that’s not good enough so I said to fade or not to fade
Fen now and in general I faded Fen now and feel pretty good about it however we talked about my first four rules and one of those rules was you only need one round and despite how Tony fenals played there is no doubt about it don’t kid
Yourself he is the best golfer in this field he can easily go out round three he’s had Mala he’s had malays the whole season he can go out and and on this course and get a nine underpar and considering his salary and however he and how he’s been playing he’s going to
Be under owned and because of that I like him same thing with Keith Mitchell he was a darling his uh weeklong salary was 9900 you can see his Showdown salaries going down to 93 he was at highest range you know the highest price 9,000 a lot of people pivoted from drie
Which was a good thing because dri didn’t make the cut they pivoted to Keith Mitchell but he hasn’t lived up to the hype but I say the same thing about F now don’t get it twisted Keith Mitchell is one of the top 10 golfers in this very very weak field we only need
Him to rebound one freaking round he can shoot a seven under par no doubt about it all right so let’s go into the 8000s and of course my uh my lovely DraftKings uh updated and we can go to Mark hubber I already mentioned how he’s been playing Mark hubber once again one of
Those players that everybody was was banking on uh early on for the week long classic he is one of those players so you can kind of see some of my strategy so some of my strategy for round three and to a lesser extent round four because round four you have to factor in
Position the good players who we know are good players who we have years of data that they’re good players we have to assume that these good players are going to have at least one smash round because they’re better than everybody else so that is why I’m looking at Mark
Hubber and then we can go into the 7000s look at my screen it’s just trying to make my video even more fun and more hard we can scroll down and we have Grayson Sig so I mentioned Grayson Sig in my weekl long video once again for this field uh he is
Relatively good we know he has some of those key stats that we like uh I mean a lot of people know about him so I don’t know how his ownership is going to be but once again we need him to do well for this one round and then we go into
The 6000s and we have Stanger I mentioned him as far as some of the key stats that you should consider so let me know your thoughts if you have any specific questions leave a comment but otherwise go out there and win that guap I hope you enjoyed that video and I
Hope it was informative if you haven’t already you got to do these four things and they’re all free you need to like And subscribe and hit that notification Bell and Share my video and I will talk to you next time
1 Comment
I hope you feel better and appreciate you for doing this video. I didn't play this slate because this field was not good