Is Favorite Tony Finau the BEST BET to Win Mexico Open? Golf Predictions & Picks | Links & Locks

Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello, Spencer Aguiar, and Nick B discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Mexico Open on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

Subscribe to Links and Locks podcast here: www.actionnetwork.com/podcasts/links-locks

00:20 – BEST BETS
07:18 – COURSE PREVIEW
14:00 – OUTRIGHT BETS
22:05 – ONE-AND-DONE
27:25 – THE REST OF THE CARD
30:15 – RAPID FIRE

#pgatour #golfbetting #golf

Get our free mobile app: https://myaction.app/youtube
https://www.actionnetwork.com/
https://www.tiktok.com/@actionnetworkh nq
http://instagram.com/actionnetworkhq
Tweets by ActionNetworkHQ

Individuals must be 21+ to participate in sports betting and iGaming in the U.S. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER in the U.S. or visit: https://www.actionnetwork.com/general/responsible-gambling.

In Massachusetts, please call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support. LiveChat with a GameSense Advisor at GameSenseMA.com or call 1-800-GAM-1234.

#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #AuthorNickBretwisch #BlueWireVideo

Hello you beautiful degenerates and welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 this is your 2024 Mexico open at vidanta betting preview along with Nick brwi and Spencer agar I’m Roberto aru thanks for tuning in to our show this week we’re gonna get right into it

As we are down in Puerto Vara this week on the PGA tour playing at viant vayarta Nick great to have you back this week I know you’re in the midst of the basketball playoffs what is your best bet for the Mexico open this week I’m going with a boy we haven’t talked about

In a long time uh I’m going with Matt Wallace top 20 where Tai’s pay in full at plus 275 all right going with Matt Wallace for the top 20 Spencer what’s your best bet this week I I think there’s one of two ways to go here so one route would

Be the basic answer of just fading McKenzie Hughes trying to find where where you have matchups against him I recommended Rio hiset Sun against him on Monday at Roto baller unfortunately that price drifted 25 to 30 points before we could air this show today there’s no

Point in giving out a stale number so I’m obviously not going to give that as my best bet I do think the natural pivot to that situation would probably be Austin ecro minus 114 over Hughes uh that’s always my advice is to look to to take on the fade candidate rather than

The one that I’m going to back for me I didn’t necessarily want to go that route where I took my second favorite fade against McKenzie Hughes so I’m going to throw a little monkey wrench and do something I don’t normally do on this show I’m going to say Ben Silverman to

Make the cut at minus 120 this week okay Ben Silverman not somebody whom a lot of people might be familiar with so excited to hear your cap on him I also was not super in love with the betting board this week so I’m going to

Go with an upside play as my best bet hit on one of these a couple weeks ago at plus 650 so we’re going to go plus 600 on Vincent Norman for a top 10 I like him for some upside plays this week we’ll get into that in a little bit

First let’s hear why we’re backing why we’re backing Matt Wallace in Mexico so for me again you know everybody’s GNA talk about distance driving distance at this course how much that matters all that good stuff but it’s the updated ball striking for Matt Wallace I think

He’s a high pedigree player who just had a really hard time making a putt over the past couple Seasons that putter is catching on fire it’s a guy usually like to Target at Augusta more on the DFS side of things so I do like to see his form starting the trend in that

Direction gaining Strokes ball striking over his past two events course history is not good and I think that’s what makes this price a little bit more inflated especially when the market you know in the non-predictable course such as this unless you’re talking about Brandon woo I guess you just staple him

Into the top five for some reason here um and cam champ because we Spencer and I were talking about those two prior just like there’s no form Trend they just come here and it’s only been twice but just tear it up makes no sense to me

I will ride the recent form of Matt Wallace in a very very watered downfield I think that this price should have been closer to plus 220 especially when ties PID in full so I’m going to ride Matt Wallace here all right I like the swing with Matt Wallace Spencer why are you backing

Ben Silverman this week so I’ll give the pros and cons here Roberto because I mean as you said we are talking about a player that maybe not a lot of people out there have heard about so I want to talk about some of the reasons why model

Didn’t necessarily like him and then I’m going to get into the reasons why it liked him why they thought it had value so silver bin essentially had two red flags that I could Point toward for this tournament yet a lack of distance that ranked him 93rd in this field for a

Course that’s going to demand off the T length like that’s something that we knowe with 100% certainty there’s also a secondary win problem with his metric he doesn’t necessarily thrive in these higher gusts but I just think that we have a really nice value spot here to

Consider for a name that that maybe not a lot of people know and if you really pay attention to where some of these sharper movements in the market are occurring Silverman starting to catch traction whether that be in like the top Canadian Market he’s moved in a positive

Direction if you look at some of his outright prices at some of these sharper shops he’s been moving down the board in that area so seven of eight made cuts when you combine his PGA Tour and corn fairy start since August he also graded 14th in my model for expected scoring

When he got courses that had minimal rough that spiked some of those off the te projections that initially hurt him in my sheet and then it helped to propel him into an excellent value option throughout the board as I said at the beginning I wish the first Hughes fade

Hadn’t moved so quickly but I just didn’t want to give the second best Hugh head-to-head bet when he’ already moved on the better one against his SATs so I do think both of those head-to-heads work but think for the sake of this show minus 120 to make the cut here is a very

Intriguing proposition like those ball striking numbers that we’ve have tracked for him so far have been pretty stellar so intrigued to see him play this week and get a lot more data not only on him but on a bunch of these rookies on the PGA tour we speaking off air about how you

Want to look at some of the numbers for 175 to 200 yards 200 225 yards and guys have like three to five approach shots on those distances so it’s frustrating when you just don’t know how good these guys are if they’re outliers whatever um getting into my best bet this week got a

Little bit more data on this guy Norman he won last year at the barbasol championship and he is somebody whom fits the profile of a golfer I want to bet on this week in that he’s long off the te he has very high ball speed Club

Head speed he has upside from outside of 175 yards and he is a horrific putter so hopefully we get a little lucky with the putter these slower stickier pass palum greens are going to be hopefully a neutralizer for players who have or putting and ideally this helps

Vincent Norman but love that he’s super long off the te love that he has upside with his iron looking at his proximity numbers last year where we actually have a decent sample size he was 35th in proximity from 175 to 200 yards he was also 22nd in proximity on approaches

From outside of 200 yards he was 23rd in Strokes gain off the T so pretty solid off the T but he was more long than accurate and with these 41 yard wide Fairways going to be less of an emphasis on driving accuracy because a lot more

Guys are going to hit the Fairway 17th in ball speed last year 15th in club or sorry this year in ball speed he’s 17th and he’s also 15th in club head speed this season I like the upside that he has he’s not the safest play he might

Not make the cut but I think he if he plays his best golf he could win this tournament and we’ll have more on that in a little bit Spencer also wanted to note that you did mention that you could bet against Mackenzie Hughes in our outrights article that we dropped on

Monday so hopefully if you’re not familiar we’re having one article where we get everybody to give their best outright bet and Spencer sprinkled in a little extra knowledge for us on Fading McKenzie Hughes so hopefully you got to look at that and you got a fate of him

Before the market moved before we get into our Best Bets in a moment let’s break down the course at Vidant viarta Spencer I’ll hand you the tea so we only have two iterations of this course to pull from on the PJ tour I I do think that lack of data can sometimes be

Problematic just because you do get this preconceived notion that could start the form off of a very limited sample size worth of returns it’s kind of what you’re talking about Roberto funny enough to where even on these players we have limited sample sizes of returns and

Just what happens when you you take the overall blueprint here and you run it like there’s there’s problems that occur now the one thing I would say about this course and and I usually would be more concerned with that factor especially when you look at vidon here in these

Fields never really being that strong I really don’t know though Roberto how you can look at this course and view it any differently than that public narrative that you’re going to hear numerous times this week you have wide open Fairways limited rough all of that quickly turns

This into a bom bomb and gouge setup that’s going to reward second shot prows from 175 plus yards There Are Places you can’t miss if you go incredibly Wayward off the tea but essentially golfers who can use their driver as a weapon will have will have an advantage in finding

Success the first point to note for that answer does stem from that sticky pass bam grass that you just talked about Roberto that removes some of the roll out from the equation I think while the expected driving distance does see a 14 yard increase over expectation that

Grass type Factor mixed with the venue being played at sea level really only further enhances the notion that you better be very comfortable with your a driver in your hand if you want to find success at this tournament I do think length matters for that reason it

Probably has more to do with that lack of roll out over anything else although the bigger situation comes into play when you realize a golfer can’t out hit and Shrink this track so nearly 62% of second shots have occurred from Beyond 175 yards over the past two years that

Total landed over 22% above the PGA Tour average essentially if you’re short off the te you’re going to struggle to produce birdies if you’re longer you still need quality long iron play it just starts you in a much different position like you’re essentially starting on second base where if you’re

Short you’re bunting down the Fairway which I guess would be the best example I don’t know why I decided to go with a baseball analogy there to break this down but that’s kind of the the way I view this course I think wind’s going to play a factor anytime that you’re

Sitting directly on water that would be one of the items that I would continue to run nightly for in tournament bets you might be able ble to find an edge in some of those in tournament head to heads but at the end of the day don’t

Get this Twisted this is a ball Striker course it’s going to reward length I think if you’re trying to build a model any differently than that answer you’re doing something exponentially wrong so even if we only have two iterations to pull from I feel very confident that there are all these outlier statistics

That we get here that are just massively above the Baseline projections elsewhere that I kind of know how bante is going to play even with only two attempts year I think that makes a lot of sense you covered everything I was going to touch on Nick anything you’d like to add

In our course preview or are you ready for your best bet no I’m ready for my best bet and I was excited to uh to see you get on Vincent Norman there so uh to me he grades out as just a cheaper version of Cameron Champ who the market

Absolutely loves this week again course history especially on the DFS side of things people are going to play a lot of Cam champ Vincent Norman to me checks every single box that cam champ does is with maybe even more of an edge with a putter I know it’s kind of weird to say

Especially when cam champ has lit up these greens the pest Palm greens here the past two times here but uh the rest of my card is pretty light I did roll the dice on Maverick mcne top 20 ties in full I was close with him or Matt

Wallace for the best bet going into this show I was going to have Maverick mcne but speaking to Spencer ree uh pre-record here I switched over to Matt Wallace but I do still like Maverick mcney at top 20 at Plus 240 I don’t know if it’s buying at the

Wrong time here I still think that’s a pretty high price or a long price for a guy of his pedigree I’m worried that the ball striking is getting better and it’s going to fall off a cliff like what we used to see from Maverick mcneel but

That was again when he was injured so for me I’m I’m betting on the Pedigree with Maverick mcney there I think that when putts do matter a little bit here on these greens I think i’ I’d rather back someone that can light up the putting green obviously his his distance

Is much improved his ball striking has improved and back to what we saw years ago prior to the injury um and then I did take Eric Van Ruan at 37 to1 outright and Matt Wallace at 80 to1 so a very light card for me with both top 20s

On Maverick mcne and Matt Wallace and outright on them both and then adding EVR in there I was close to getting there at Michael Kim at 55 to1 my numbers have him at 48 to1 so he is one of the higher edges I have I just think

Michael Kim’s more of like a a top 40 type of play for me just say if we can get him at likeus 120 or something like that I think I would roll the dice there I I just worry about the upside with Michael Kim so I I do think the upside

Like how you spoke about Vincent Norman I think Matthew Wallace checks that boxing is actually in good form so Matt Wallace is probably just my guy this week and then fading McKenzie Hughes because Spencer’s been on a tear with these matchups I love when he has that

Strong of a conviction leading into a tournament where it’s just like yeah whatever you could find against McKenzie Hughes roll it um so that’ll probably be the rest of my card until we see how some of these rookies do J I’d love to get your take on a couple of them when

We go through that part a little bit later but that’s I think what I’m most excited for us to see the max giserman the MC Meisner um Chandler Phillips I know we’ve seen him a bit with that mustache on TV but those are the guys I’m really looking forward to to to uh

Seeing and getting more data on this week yeah one of the cool Parts about having the new designated event or signature event model is that if you’re not into those Signature Events everybody wants to play in the open this year everybody wants to play in the American Express but

Unfortunately that just meant that there haven’t been as many starts available for the rookies and so these guys haven’t gotten to play and now when everybody else is taking off this week to get to Florida next week they have to play and they just don’t have much data

Behind their behind their few starts so far so very interested to see how these guys do when we get to see a little bit more of them and track data and in the few courses that they have played we’ve seen some course rotations and so if you

Miss the cut you might get one round of data in for the whole week so that’s unfortunate but Spencer break down your outrights and then go through the rest of your betting card for me for this week I thought it was an interesting betting board um I did have some value

At the top that I did not eventually get to or inevitably get to on it so I have a group of long shot Wagers here I’m kind of still trying to figure out exactly how I want to parse together the top of this board but I started with Rio

Hisatsune at 50 to1 that has more so fallen into the 40 to 45 to1 range over the last 24 hours we have seen a handful of quality results from him to begin his career including a win in Europe toward the end of 2023 and then that 11th Place

Finished to start 2024 at the American Express while that latter was an event where fellow youngster Nick Dunlap eventually took down the title my model has continued throughout I mean even preseason when I was running this at the end of December uh when I was having

Like I I ran it out to th000 players trying to figure out if I could find any sleepers moving forward Rio was the one youngster 21 years old that just continued to pop for me every single way that I ran the data first place rank for me and weed scoring at Vidant that

Helped to create a golfer inside my sheet who landed as a top five win Equity Choice maybe that’s a limited sample size where I’ve gotten an overblown answer here and that’s okay if that’s what is happened here but even when I regress some of the statistics

For him he still graded as a golfer that should have been sub 40 to1 so I thought he was a very intriguing play if we’re going to shoot for the upside here and I think we can talk about this a little bit more also Roberto because I think

You brought up a really interesting thing about Vincent Norman that I’ll get to when I get to some of these placement Wagers but I think understanding the market that you’re betting some of these golfers for and trying to find the right either it’s matchup or the right area to

Fit them in I I think Rio’s a really intriguing outright potential here to where we have seen this historically where there are golfers that are very young that have possessed more upside than maybe we realized at the time I think this might be one of these

Positions for him took Sam Stevens at 90 to1 that has moved more into the 7075 to1 range I I think if the bomb and gouge narrative was the singular item to point toward it would be one thing to discuss here but it was really intriguing and too intriguing frankly

For me to ignore a profile where we also got an inform golfer who happens to excel with his long iron proximity so when I placed an equal weight for distance and proximity for 175 plus yards I’m essentially trying to find what golfers at Vante can fit that mold

The best he plays six for me this week now there’s a golfer there in Parker cudy who landed in the top six who was above him that’s limited sample sizes that we’re talking about where there’s certain situations that I don’t necessarily trust that return but I do

Think it’s worth noting and looking into when you have a golfer over 100 to one but the other golfers on that mix hoard phenow joerger Thomson so you’re essentially looking at the four favorites mixed in with Stevens mixed in with Parker cudy where uh that’s the

Reason why I took Stevens at 90 to1 it’s also the reason why I took Parker cudy at 125 to one as I said not a ton of data in this situation for me to feel comfortable but it does appear like a ball striking course like we’re going to

Get here we’ll reduce some of those putting returns that uh we have gotten so top 10 in my model when we look at both driving and approach numbers outside of the top 90 for putting uh I think there’s an opportunity for one of these younger players to make a mass

Statement in Mexico it’s going to end up changing the entire trajectory of their season I don’t know if C is going to necessarily be the one that takes that step but thought it’s a 100 to one plus Choice he was very intriguing and then I wrapped up my card with Nate Lashley at

90 to1 um I I think this is kind of the Vincent Norman discussion that we’re having and I think Nate Lashley fits this also for a top 10 so there are certain golfers Lashley and Norman were probably two on the high end of that inside of my model where if you’re going

To bet them I I think betting them as a top 40 bet is not the ideal way to go I think there’s too much volatility I think you end up having too much exposure on the wager I think when they hit they hit big and I think when they

Bust they miss the cut in horrible fashion and I think Lashley is a name that has that potential that to go either way with that I think Vincent Norman is the same kind of golfer here to where if he puts the pieces together that top 10 outright sort of a wager is

Where the value comes into play if Lashley ends up coming in last place here for me I’m not going to be shocked but the ball striking numbers loved him I thought this was a way to get really cheap exposure to him in the outright market and kind of as I talked about

There are ways to bet this as a top 10 or to play this maybe a little bit more aggressively while still trying to figure out some sort of a I guess cap seiling would be the way to put it it’s just to me the cap ceiling for Lashley

Would be bet him in the top 10 don’t bet him into the top 4 d v I thought you made a lot of good points and I wanted to touch on Parker Cy whom I also have a bet on outright this week he I found him at 110 to1 out

There so be sure to shop around I thought that price was too good to pass up looking at his ball striking and he so while I’m not going to trust the proximities for guys who have like four shots on a given proximity range I can trust the

Ball speeds and the club at speed to know that these guys just moov the ball far and both Parker and his twin brother Pearson are have really impressive uh ball speed and Club head speed numbers so these guys have the profile of guys who if they are playing well they can

Absolutely bomb the ball out there and we know that golf’s in their blood they’re grandfather I think won the Masters as well and I’m very intrigued to see these guys they’re winners they won a national championship at UT I think Parker’s the better golfer overall than Pearson um just kind of anecdotally

And from what I’ve seen in limited sample size Pearson did win last year on the corn fairy tour but Parker was a little bit more consistent so I wanted to get a piece of Parker Cy this week at 110 to1 I’m also going to sprinkle a

Little escalator on him at 10 to one for a top 10 and 4 to one for a top 20 just feel like this fits a bomber profile this week and this might be the chance to get a leg up on him when we don’t have another course that’s going to really benefit

The bombers like this um that he’ll really play in I don’t think he’s gonna he probably won’t qualify for the Arnold Palmer unless he wins this week so unlikely that that happens but that’s a much stronger field G to be tougher to get a top 10 top 20 for him

In that field anyways I like Parker Cy a lot this week and I think it’s worth sprinkling a little bit on that escalator to see how much upside he has mentioned Vincent Norman I’ve also got him out right at 75 to1 and I have a sneaky little bet that’s going to look

Great until Thursday morning I have I think I think I mentioned it on the show a couple weeks ago I have a future on Tony feno to win this event at 16 to1 so I bet this a month two months ago um I just saw the spot on the schedule that

This tournament was and I figured nobody’s going to play the week after Riviera when Pebble was was a signature event two weeks before that and a bunch of guys want to play in the WM as well and we’re going to Florida next week I just thought it was a weird schedule

Spot where fow and Rah had been the only two guys I think Rah was like plus 275 to win this event last year and there just was not a lot of talent in this field last year and I figured that might be the case again this year maybe they

Throw Sheffer in in rah’s place or put another big name guy in there and they just didn’t replace ROM which I’m pretty surprised by but nonetheless got a lot of clv on Tony feno can’t wait to watch him putt this week and pair my ticket to shreds uh I’m not very optimistic about

That but it’s it looks great until Thursday morning so I’ll have a little fun with that before then B I wanted to get your thoughts on one and done this week Nick has basically moved into a tie with me in our little Action Network 15ot done getting hot getting hot he I I

Burned Scotty Sheffer last week so after I watched a horrific putting performance last week I did get to watch Tony fow this week so we’re just this is how I live this is the life that I’ve chosen um I I don’t know for one and done I I

Think I’m just not going to overthink this one I’m just going to use Tony feno because quite frankly nobody else is within 1 Point like five 1.9 million I don’t remember what the number is outside of Nick and me and I know Nick doesn’t have Tony feno available and the

The other person that uh I am very uh nervous about in this pool is Spencer who also does not have Tony F now available because you guys both used you guys both both used him at Tory pin so everybody else might use Tony feno in the pool but I know you guys

Can’t so I’m probably going to use Tony feno I I have and I’ve complained about this almost every single week that we’ve done this show if you would take my one B choice to my one a choice that was the eventual pick like it came down to

Either havin or Klay last week I rolled with hin and I mean havin earned me 200 something thousand but KL ends up making that from like 50 something feet on the final hole after taking what looked like a win into a thing that looked like it

Was going to come outside the top five and then all of a sudden earns all at the extra money at the end there I was not very happy about that finish I left I think I’ve probably left I don’t know Roberto $2 million on the table from just picking like the wrong choice

Between the two I’m probably gonna play hoard um that would that seems to be the most logical place to go here um the only answer that I would give is that if you believe then my model does believe this to potentially be an answer if hoard becomes what I think is possible

This could be too low of a spot for him like there might be a better spot to try to play him at at some point um that would be my only concern if it’s not him it’s probably Rio I guess what would be among your considerations for that spot

To use Hoy guard later in the season I I I would think like something like I mean like a Players Championship or something could be very fun for him like just go like Max it like all the way to the top when when I ran numbers and this was one of the

Things I was talking about and he has to get into some of these bigger events and like that one is going to be one that he can get himself into but I when I ran my numbers he was a top 15 or 16 player in pretty much all iterations of how I ran

The sheet entering the season like I have massive upside expectations for him like even more so than the upside expectations that I had for fenal uh which is maybe one of the reasons why I decided to use fow in the capacity I did that might be one way to look at it the

Other way is I’m an addict that just has to play Tony fow every single week but I I I think hoard has a lot of interesting potential moving forward and uh even if it’s not here like because that’s the thing to me if people don’t play fenal

The next potential play to them is probably going to be hoard I I would think like I think those are going to be the two highest own players where people are not trying to go super low down the board maybe that’s a reason to use Sam Stevens maybe that’s a reason to use

Even deeper than that like I I think all cards are on the table this week it just depends on if you can find a secondary spot to use some of these names and I think for you Roberto fenal is no longer in a position to where he must be used

In the bigger events and I think that’s something that we talked about so if you have a player who’s outside the top 20 in the rankings and now you have a tournament where there’s no other event this entire year he’s going to be sub 10

To one to win the tournament it makes a lot of sense I think there’s a nice safety return for him um but I I don’t know I haven’t made a decision yet I also have never told the truth on this show i’ I think I’ve bluffed my way

Through it and then I Bluff so much I Bluff myself at the end I’m also very intrigued by Stephen joerger of course that’s that’s that’s a great one too yeah I was either joerger or Stevens I don’t think I’m going to get there on the on the Rio thing but I

Will uh as of now Roberto in all honesty that is my locked in player for our contest is Stephen jger I like that play I like that play if didn’t have feno available I would I would probably go with joerger um with hoard a close third

But I uh I’m very intrigued by those guys so Nick I know you got a run you guys are in the what round of the playoffs are you guys in right now we are in the sectional semi-final so three more wins and we will have a state

Tournament to go down to at my all mam Mater the Harvard of the Midwest Illinois State University so we’ll see how it goes I think that you know if I were to handicap a little bit I think every game that we may or may not have

From here on out we should be within a five to six point Underdog or favorite so it it’ll be very tight basketball going out here awesome well a good coach will get you an advantage on some of those atos everything so good luck uh

And thank you guys we hope we get to see you guys at state in a few weeks thanks take care good luck this week all right take care Nick Spencer let’s hop into our rapid fire unless there are any other plays that you had on your card yeah

There’s one that I forgot to mention um you’re GNA have to price search for this but there is a number on Sam Stevens to come top 20 at plus 345 that is about 100 points larger than the rest of the market right now so I

Think that’s a nice value grab spot on a golfer in Stevens that I I’ve obviously talked about why I love his upside potential for what he brings from a distance and weighted proximity answer um if you look at what he’s done at some some of these sharper locations and

These sharper books out there I mean this is a name that he’s a favorite in almost every single matchup he has moved into the 50 to 60 to one range at a lot of shops out there to win this tournament I think all of those answers

Are credible moves and it’s one of the reasons why he was a top 10 projected win Equity candidate inside of my model so I’m going to trust some of that it’s going to be a very small exposure for me it’ll be 0.3 units there um don’t need

To risk much to take some of some sort of a chance there but I I think Roberto that’s how you and I like building our card inside these placement markets maybe more so than most people like uh we we grab some of these deep shots like

A Vincent Norman to land a top 10 a Sam Stevens here at a little less than 401 and if the pieces crumble obviously you end up losing the bet and that that’s one of the things that comes into play but you’re also not risking a unit and a

Half laying minus 150 to try to win a unit there like there’s there’s a much different build and a much more advantageous way to go about a lot of of these things and for me it’s like as small as I can keep that exposure in some of these placement markets is

Usually where the ROI increases for me and my bank roll sees the biggest increase over time so uh just being very selective inside that placement Market it’s about one play a week and that’s going to be the one play I’m going for I like it I really like in these lesser

Fields when they’re more spots available in those top 10 and 20s shooting for a little bit of upside as well uh so very excited to see how some our upside swings this week turn out like uh cudy and Norman but as a reminder the links and locks podcast is presented by bet

365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why they get you more boost than anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for

Their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at F 365 must be 21 or older and present in Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1800

Gambler or 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply all right Spencer I had one bet that just missed my card Alejandro toasty minus 120 over Justin sub I wanted to fade Su just because I don’t really believe in his ball striking I know that he’s decently

Long and he’s very putter Reliant and I don’t think that it’s safe to make a bet on somebody who’s putter reliant on these greens this week I wanted to fade him I just didn’t have enough information to back toasty I like the ball speed Club head speed numbers for

Him I like off the T how he smashes it he has course history here with a 10th Place finish last year the approach numbers just looked a little questionable and we don’t have that much data on him overall so it was a pass for

Me but that was one that I wanted to bet maybe I’ll just sprinkle it with a little pizza money but um just for me to kind of keep an eye on him but not an official bet that I’ve made this week you have any thoughts on either of those

Two players I think toasty has a higher ceiling if you’re looking directly at that um toasty’s 27th in my model this week sa is 30th so I think there very similar in what like I think the price out there sounds fair at at minus 110 or

Minus 120 either way on that so probably be a a void for me based off of that answer but um from a pure upside perspective my model sees a bigger boost for toasty there for whatever that’s worth let’s hop into how you feel on these guys as far as upside goes this

Week we’ll be pulling odds here from the bet 365 enhanced win Market uh I’ll give you a second if you want to pull that up or wherever if if you want to pull that up or the eway betting because I wanted to hear whom you thought has the longest

Odds this week that can still win the golf tournament uh normally you see guys who are in the 100 to one range this week be two or three even 400 to one in a normal tournament that they’re in so didn’t think a lot of long shots

Made ton of sense this week there are a handful of guys whom I think can win like a Davis Riley but his game has just in the gutter this year so I have no idea what to make of him but I know he’s going to pop out of it at some point or

He won’t be on the PGA tour this season because it’s been pretty rough um looking through I’ll say I’ll say maybe maybe Davis Riley at 165 is the longest price golfer who can win this week what do you what do you think I I think that the

Pricing like there’s a lot of players like I I’ll use a couple as examples here like I think a Joseph bramlet is a very intriguing name but all of a sudden you look at what his outright price actually is in the space and you realize

Well that number is not as deep as you would actually anticipate it being like you can get 100 to one I think it did open a little bit higher than that uh Parker Cy would be another answer of that like a lot of these guys for me

That I was hoping were going to be 250 to1 to win this contest uh ended up being priced like in bramlett’s position at 100 to1 so I didn’t end up on an outright ticket on them for that reason uh Carson young kind of carried a very similar perspective like a lot of those

90 to 12 to one guys uh there I guess I’ll go though to the one answer that I gave earlier like you can find Ben Silverman out there at 250 to one if you really shop around and you try to find a price um that’s probably about the

Deepest that I would say that I would go um but for the most part A lot of those names that I found value on were a lot of those options in like the 90 to 120 range um at the end of the day gotcha I’m seeing Silverman here on bet 365 at

225 I’ll say maybe Taran can win also in that 225 to one range Boomer bust at least at least he has the upside potential like my model never likes him but there have been weeks over the past couple years to where you randomly look on the first page of the leaderboard and

He’s outside the top 100 in my model and he’s inside the first page of the leaderboard so when he hit hits in a big way um maybe some of that win play can help him that he has but I I I don’t know like I I do think that regardless

Of this being a situation where the bottom of this board and maybe the field in general is not as strong as you would want to see I do think there’s a significant drop off more so than most weeks that occurs at a certain point on these boards like I could probably look

And we not going to name every single person here but there’s probably like 40 plus names names that I almost can just say have 0% win Equity near the very bottom here and that’s not an answer that you would give on most weeks so I think you’re going to have to avoid some

Of that strength at the top I know Nick talked about his love for joerger and I’m somebody that also likes Jager all the time I think he’s a very intriguing name I think Davis Thompson’s intriguing I think hoard and fow are intriguing but at a certain point if those guys don’t

Win it does open it up for a lot of those 50 to 125 guys so that’s kind of the range that I want to live in rather than just peppering the bottom of the board because if you look at a Jonathan Vegas Roberto I know this is a very long

Answer here that that I’m giving but if you look at Jonathan Vegas look at where he was two weeks ago I got him at 450 to one you’re now sitting in a spot with Vegas where I love his upside but he’s 60 to one for the most part across the

Board like that to me is unfortunately where this board fell apart ridiculous I I know that you had the top 10 top 20 bet on Vegas as well um so you hopped on him at the right time and as a result the price has changed the field is very different

And I wanted to get into who you where at some of these drop offs I think there’s a big drop off after joerger in the top three that you mentioned with hoard and fow uh getting on to those guys would you rather have an outright

Ticket on hoard at 17 to1 or joerger at 24 I’ll take hoard just because my model likes him so much like that to me that if I was going to punch a ticket at the very top it was hoard I love that his skill set that he brings for this course

And even when we were having this discussion or the community and Twitter as a whole was having this discussion before be after zorus pulled out and and everything that was coming into play and it was like well there’s literally Tony fi out and no field around it and I’m

Sitting there I’m like I mean I mean I’ve already said it earlier in the show I think hoard’s a legitimate top 20 player in the world so I don’t think that this is a cakewalk at the top for f now where he is just by Far and Away the

Best golfer and and I think even if you look at some of these matchups in the space hoard opened at like plus 175 plus 180 against fow look at where that number is in the space now it’s down into like the Plus 130s at a lot of shops uh there’s real credible movement

That’s occurring for hoard for why I think that like it’s it’s feno and hoard as two names to beat and then probably that third range dips into the Davis Thompson and the Steven jger sort of golfers I think that makes a lot of sense and one thing that those three

Golfers at the top of the odds boort have in common is they all murder the golf ball and that normally plays when you think about bombers on the PGA tour you think about Tory Pines and all three of these guys had really strong performances at Tory Pine so it’s going

To be very interesting to see how they all do at another track track where the bombers figure to have an edge emilano Grio is a guy who’s had some success here he’s not a bomber but he’s 27 to1 Keith Mitchell one of the best total

Drivers of the golf ball in the PJ tour also 27 to1 and Thomas dietry who’s gone through a really nice run of play also excelled at Tory Pines as well he’s 27 to1 Taylor pendri a guy we talk about a lot on Club down courses here on the PJ

Tour he’s 27 to1 he’s still also a bomber among those four golfers at 27 to1 which one would you most like to have a ticket on I’m out on Grio this week I think his price is far too shallow in any of those ranges of what we’re talking about um my model likes

Pendri the best I think that that’s probably the consensus answer that you would hear from most people in the space uh negative trajectory inside of my model for dietro it’s almost one of those situations to where until he can prove to me that he can win a golf

Tournament I guess I would rather just be on the sidelines and wait for it to happen like anytime he gets close he crumbles and and that’s just the unfortunate situation for him I think Mitchell is probably the Intriguing one just because of the total driving that

He brings to the table um you talked about pendrith being better at some of these Club down courses and maybe that’s what ends up coming into play but as you said I mean he still has that prototypical distance that you would want I thought he was an intriguing name

Not necessarily at the price that you have to pay but I understand why people are on him this week like my my model also agreed with a lot of those returns getting into our next Ranger guys we just mentioned Nikolai hoard his twin brother Rasmus recently played in

The Ross Al Kima Championship on the DP World Tour and finished second he was six Strokes behind the W the the winner of that tournament thorbjorn olison and olison although he has not started on the PGA tour since the Open Championship he’s here at 32 to1 this week coming off

That win at the Ross Al Kima Championship has not made a start since then that was last week of January gone through a really nice for nice couple months of form since October where he’s finished in the top 26 in eight straight events on the DP World Tour also has a

Third place finish in the NB golf challenge where believe Max hom won in South Africa he’s 32 to one Eric Van royan who won in Mexico last time the PJ tour was in Mexico is 34 to1 Patrick Rogers is 35 to1 Ryan Fox and Davis

Thompson are both both 38 to1 if I gave you a free ticket on any of these guys olison van royan Rogers Fox and Thompson which one would you take Spencer I’ll take Thompson just because he is inside the top five of my model for projected

Win Equity I I think if I removed him from the mixed and talked about the other three players surprisingly I I would probably go with olison in this spot like I don’t love the price tags that that are currently out there right now on Van royan um or even even Rogers

For that answer I I think that they are far too shallow for their overall long-term skill set and trajectory that we have seen at least with olison like inside the top 10 of my model of all ways that I built it he did have negative uh leverage inside of my sheet

When looking for upside so that would be like the one negative to throw into the mix there but once you get out of those first Five Guys olison fit right into that sixth spot as the sixth most likely person to win this tournament um I don’t

Know if that’s more of a DFS answer than anything else potentially because I do think he’s going to go massively under owned with some of the price tags that are out there but I I don’t dislike olison as much as most of the industry seems to like I it seems like

Everybody’s just written them off that the price is way too shallow or way too expensive in certain areas of the market I don’t necessarily agree I think this is a golfer that’s bringing great form and and I do think from a skill set perspective he grades nicely for what we get here at

Vidant I’m really excited to see olison he’s one of those guys who was in the top 10 of the DP World Tour last year who got his PJ tour card this year and he just hasn’t played yet so interesting that he hasn’t played I’m going to be

Intrigued to see how he plays this week and I wonder how much he’s going to play going forward looking further down the odds board we’ve got Brandon woo 45 to1 this week Jake knp another PGA Tour rookie who’s 45 to one also did very well at Tory Pines a couple weeks ago

The gim Reaper Doug gim is 50 to one and your boy Rio’s 50 to1 but we’re not going to talk about him because we’ve already mentioned him so we got Brandon woo Jake Knack Jake knap and Doug gim between 45 and 50 to1 if you had to take

A if you had a free ticket on one of those three guys which one would you take Spencer that Brandon woo price is is wild uh it’s a wild number and I understand you look at the course history of a third and a second over the past two years you throw this tournament

And courses matter and that’s the one thing I want to preface this with but if you throw this course pretty much anywh where else I think Brandon Woo is probably over 100 to one so uh this is not necessarily the most predictive course that we have seen in both of the

Two stops that we’ve gotten here it’s on the bottom end of the totem pole there when you run some of these long-term projected stats out for what for rollover predictability here so uh Woo’s going to be out for me I always like Doug gim I think Doug gim’s ball

Striking and the form that he’s bringing is certainly intriguing I guess the consensus answer that I’ve just given over and over and over again though and this is why I will go with Jake knap here is I am very intrigued on some of these players that have limited starts

On the PJ tour that my model does like we can make the argument that there’s not enough data for me to feel super comfortable in some of these spots but I would rather bet on some of those I don’t want to call them unknown Commodities but I guess like the ceiling

For nap is much more of an unknown commodity at this point than any of the other golfers like if nap ends up working himself into being a top X player in the world whatever that number ends up being I think that ceiling potential is probably higher than

Everybody else so it’s why I liked Rio it’s why I think nap has some Intrigue I don’t have a problem with anybody that backed gim I think he has the ball striking metrics that you want but uh I I’ll rank it nap gim and then Brandon

Woo if he beats me he beats me like if it’s going to be a course history answer like I’ll let him beat me every single day he’s somebody whom I wanted to take on a match up this week and I just haven’t found the right one yeah same but uh we’ll see if

Anything opens up within the tournament as I know you’ve monitored that market a lot more closely than I have and you found a lot more value in there uh after maybe some overreactions from the books dayto day yeah yeah I mean I think that’s the number one thing that we talk

About and I talk about every single week when I do the Action Network articles it’s very important to where um we’ve gotten this narrative that’s kind of been spread in the space and and it’s it’s that over projection or it’s that over it’s that movement that goes too extreme it’s like somebody sees

Something happen and a golfer gained x amount of Strokes with this portion of his game well now he must do that again and I tend to think that like when you look at my model after round one the majority of my weight that is being attached there is still from a

Pre-tournament answer I do slowly infus in the round one statistics but it’s never going to take this massive movement to where it’s like whoever the player is we can use Doug gim for this example well let’s not use Doug gim let me use somebody that my model doesn’t

Like as much like let’s say let’s just say McKenzie Hughes I think he’s the prime example since I’ve talked about him in a negative fashion quite a bit McKenzie Hughes goes out on Thursday and he gains three Strokes off the te and two shots with his irons and he leads he

Puts together he’s in first place and he puts together the number one ball striking round of the the of the day it’s going to make him better than he was in my sheet but it’s not going to look at this and say this is what should be projected moving forward with

McKenzie husen and I think that’s the one mistake is that better see that and go this guy is in form right now this is a player who’s putting the pieces together where if my model didn’t like him from the two-year running perspective like why is it going to

Change everything after one round so I I think just be very cautious with your moves when you’re running a model be very cautious of how quickly you infuse in some of that data like it should be a slow infusion it shouldn’t be that all of the bulk of the stats that come into

Play just hit right away and in addition to having your model you can just say hey I believe in this guy he’s been a good long iron player on the PGA tour for this long his numbers aren’t here this week but the price is right and even if there’s no

Momentum if numbers aren’t great it works both yes yeah you can look the other way and maybe the books overreacting to the data um Spencer wanted to get your wanted you to tell me where we can find your work this week we know you’ve got the in tournament articles for Action

Network you got better golf podcasts this week as well what else you got yeah you can I will have an action Network outright article that I will write on Wednesday uh that will be on the website we’ll talk about where the best values are currently sitting in the market

Where some of the sharp money has hit early in the week talk about the bets that we’ve discussed on the show I’ll go a little bit more in depth with some other reasons why I like those players it’s always a very intriguing article to try to find Value though that’s still

Left in the space because as we talk about Roberto once a number goes stale there’s no point in talking about it like it’s it’s one of the reasons why you have to be on top of these things and you have to be aware of movement that’s going to her so we’ll we’ll do

That tomorrow I will have the in tournament bets that you talked about during the weekend over at action those have been thriving so far this season uh the the pre-tournament head-to-heads have even been doing better than that so unfortunately that was the real over over Hughes play I I talked about e rot

Potentially over Hughes as a secondary route to go but we have all those in tournament options a lot of these names that we talked about of potentially fading there and then uh you can find my model over at rot Bol there’s you know tons of categories and tons of

Statistics of how you can either look to see how I have everybody weighed and ranks for the week or you can make a copy of the sheet and weigh the data yourself to create your own model so uh that’s one of my favorite portions of the model is that it has user custom

Ization to it to where a user can go through and if you disagree and you think that Strokes gained or driving distance let’s say if you think that that should be a bigger weight that I’ve attached you have the potential to do that so if you’re not doing that yet

Consider checking out my model over at R bowler it is an awesome resource that I look at every week so I highly recommend checking that out and following all Spencer’s work Spencer thanks for uh coming on the show today I know you’re not feeling 100% this week but hope you

Feel better and big thanks to you for being here as always um also fill us in on what happened at the um convention you were at last week oh I I I got false information there Roberto we lost to Action Network and everything across the board with it all the action Network

Writers and and the team as a whole uh seemed to win pretty much every single award so congratulations to Matt Mitchell and Scott and and everybody that Scott was down there I got to meet him super nice guy um you know Action Network is at the Pinnacle of the space

For a reason and uh you know sometimes I think you you get information told to you one way and it doesn’t end up coming to fruition with it but it was a great conference at the end of the day like met a lot of great people there had some

Great discussions about the future of gambling and and really where things are going in the space and uh it was a lot of fun so I’m a very competitive person I don’t like going to things and not winning unfortunately but uh uh great experience at the end of the day awesome

Well hopefully well maybe one day we’ll get Nick Nick and me out there too that’ll be cool um thanks as always for your help this week Spencer it was a BL talking with you uh once again everybody check out our Best Bets podcast as well here on wherever you get your podcasts

You can find all of the golf information you want to find on a weekly basis on the action network.com the Action Network app we got the early outright article already out there Jason soel has his Mega guide I know he’s very bullish on Austin ecro and Keith Mitchell this

Week we’ll have our Best Bets later here on Tuesday night out and then we got first round leader bets prize picks plays tomorrow Spencer you’ve got your article as well that comes out on Wednesday afternoon so excited to read that thanks again for everybody who contributes to this podcast uh thanks to

Matt Mitchell and David Payne and Noah neher for helping us out on the production side especially to Noah who does all of the production of this specific show thanks to Nick for hopping on good luck to him and Women’s Basketball team and thanks to all you

The fans for tuning to our show and helping make this possible so thanks again to everybody out there and here’s to open we hit the green down there in Porto vayarta