2024 Mexico Open Picks & Bets
Join us for the latest episode of ‘Inside The Canyon’ as we dissect the 8th tournament of the PGA Tour season. This breakdown is accompanied by seven degenerate outright picks, including a mispriced 130 to 1 long shot.
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All right this next golfer for those of you that don’t follow golf at all I would almost wager that the next four golfers including this one you never heard of them but hey that’s why I’m here to do the research and give you all the picks so you all can capitalize on
The hours of research that I’m doing hi everybody welcome back to inside the canyon this week we’re going to be covering the Mexico open at vant viarta we’re coming off a signature event we have the Mexico open this is a much more low stakes event when it comes to the
PGA tour players but hey we’re still here to make some money because these tickets still all cash the same when it comes to cashing PGA outrights so excited to have you all back and joining us this week let’s go ahead and get started we’re going to start this video
By just breaking down the course at a very high level we’ll walk through some notes of really what you can expect when tuning in to the Mexico open this week and then we’ll get into the top 10 in my model break down the betting board and
Then we’ll get into the meat of the channel the meat of inside the canyon why you all are here picks for the Mexico open so without further Ado let’s go ahead and break down the course viant viarta is an extremely long course this is one of the longer courses that we’re
Going to see on the PGA tour this year in fact over the past couple of years they have the longest set of par fours and Par fivs that you’ll see on the PGA tour if you listen to any other podcast any other show that’s giving you DFS advice picks anything like that you’re
Going to hear one key theme this week and that’s people that can hit bombs that can absolutely crank it and distance is going to be a key this week that’s going to be consistent across every channel every show and it’s just the reality of what you need to have
When it comes to Vidant viarta we’re going to going to be looking for players that can hit it a long long way and this isn’t just off the te this is when we talk about your second shot we need players that can hit your great mid to
Long irons there’s going to be a huge amount of shots when it comes to 175 yards to 250 yards so even though this is a relatively long course it plays relatively easy you and I might have some issues hitting it around out there but these PGA Tour Pros they’re not
Going to have an issue with it yes you need to be able to hit it far with your irons with your drivers but at the end of the day you need to be capitalizing on birdies so we’re going to be looking at birdies are better gained yet again
In easier scoring conditions at the same time we’re going to throw out the wedges this isn’t a wedge Fest we don’t care about what you do around the green take what you would normally do with that around the green difficulty and put it in some comp course history in your
Model something like Strokes gain corales or something like that we want to see long trop iCal courses that you can focus on that honestly is pretty similar to what we’re going to see here at the Mexico open all of that said let’s go ahead and get into the top 10
In my model number one is Tony fenal Tony fenal has finished first and second over the past couple of years and he is Far and Away first in my model there’s no surprise he should be there this is a weak field he’s one of the only wellknown names that probably your
Average listener would actually recognize the rest of them they may not recognize many of the players that we’re going to see this week at the Mexico open number two Steven joerger three Eric Van royan we’ve bet him on the show I like him a lot better this week in a
Little bit of a weaker field number four is Taylor pendrith Taylor pendrith is an absolute bomber he’s a he fits every box checks every box for what you want to see this week I think he’s going to be extremely popular over every podcast over every show we see this week but
That said you know we don’t like to ride that guy we’ll let everybody else take the most popular guy we’re going to go somewhere else and we’ll get into those and the picks a little bit later Thomas dietry comes in at number five he’s been playing some excellent golf as well
Number six Aaron Ry seven Jonathan Vegas eight Keith Mitchell another guy who I think will be pretty popular this week number nine a man of the people you see him on Twitter All the Time Michael Kim and number 10 again another guy I expect to be extremely popular and who I I like
A lot this week but ultimately spoiler alert I didn’t get there with him Davis Thompson next we’re going to go ahead and break down the betting board itself Tony fow coming in at 8 and 1 half to one now fow I don’t really like toet favorites you all know this on this show
He is Above the Rest in class I mean he is the class of this tournament not a lot of other people are going to recognize the names that you see here on this page I think fenale could absolutely go back to back I considered pushing all the chips to the center of
The table and going on fenale you hear everybody kind of doubting him and his putting that’s gone over the start to the season this year I kind of want to say hey fade that narrative go with be now again but we’ve just seen so many
Long shots hit on the PGA tour this week and frankly it’s more fun to bet long shots so you’re going to see a lot of long shots this week we’re not backing Tony fee now we’re going to throw some darts and see what happens I do like
Nikolai Hoggard I do like Thomas teetri Keith Mitchell Taylor pendri this is a like these are great golfers I just these are guys I normally would back at 50 to1 70 to1 80 to1 depending on the golf tournament so now just because we’re in a weaker field I mean I think
That you can make a case that nikai Huard at 14 to1 and Vincent Norman at 65 to1 like like is there really that much of a difference yes Nikolai hogard he played on the Ryder Cup but Vincent nortman has also won on the PGA tour there are people in this tournament that
Have won on the PGA tour at way higher numbers Cameron Champ 50 to1 I’m not going to bet Cameron Champ this week but he has one on the PGA tour and he’s not anywhere close to the top of the board I think he’ll be a popular pick this week
As well I am just looking for people that fit my stat profile and ultimately they’re going to fall into the 35 to1 bucket or Beyond and so you’ll see us get into those picks here in a little bit but ultimately my thoughts is I am avoiding the top of the board I’m going
Through the hay stack seeing if we can find a needle that we can ultimately pull out and pop a big winner this week so without further Ado let’s go ahead and dive into the picks and we can talk about who we’re backing on inside the canyon for the 2024 Mex Mexico open all
Right everybody with our first pick in the 2024 Mexico open he is a recurring guest on the betting board from this year none other than Eric Van royan now if you go back two years ago to the 2022 Mexico open he was almost the first round leader here I’ll also be backing
Him as a first round leader this year at the tournament you go to day two of the 2022 Mexico open Eric Van royan was at the top or near the top of the board first or second I can’t exactly recall he kind of fizzled off on Saturday
Sunday he kind of came back and and he had a pretty good finish ultimately at the 2022 Mexico open well fast forward to this year he’s already won a tournament in the fall swing that fits a very identical style of course to what we’re looking at here at viant viarta
Not to mention look at these stats I think a lot of these stats completely jumped off the page for me he’s 10th in Strokes gained on the par fives which we’ve seen a huge correlated success to when it comes to Winners you think John ROM and Tony fenal are pretty good on
The par FES Eric Van royan is not too bad himself on them this man is 13th from 200 to 225 yards we talked a little bit at the start of the show about how this range of 175 to 250 yards is a huge amount of importance in terms of weight
This week that’s going to be a theme we’ll continue to see through the rest of our picks this week he’s 15th and birdies are better gained we’re going to need to put ourselves in position to make birdies and actually capitalize on them he’s 23rd in driving distance Eric
Van royan he’s not number one he’s not number two he’s not in the top five top 10 but 23d he’s well above average in this field when it comes to driving distance and a guy who can hit his mid to Long irons very very accurately he’s 20th in Strokes gained approach again we
Want a guy that’s going to be able to to hit this second shot close and capitalize on birdies I think none other than Eric Van royan he’s 35 to1 like I said we’re not going to venture past that this week that will be the start of
Our betting card next I think this guy somehow some way is flying under the radar I haven’t heard him talked about too much on many other podcasts or shows that I’ve seen this week and he’s finished tied for second and third in his previous two appearances here sure
The stats don’t jump off the page here for Brandon woo as a perfect fit at this golf course but this guy when it comes to pass palum greens he has a ton of success I watched the highlights from the past two this man is draining just deep putts across the green he’s great
Here I am so excited about this bet honestly shocked that he’s 50 to one I think any other week he’s probably over a 100 and that’s fine but when you finish tied for second and third and you’re pass to a appearances sign me the hell up I’m in on Brandon woo this week
These are the stats that I found that you know can talk a little bit about why he might play well outside of just killing it on pass palum greens he’s 22nd in Strokes gained and easyc scoring conditions he’s 30th in Strokes gained in Long courses and he’s 25th in Strokes
Gained approach so he he you know he ain’t too shabby on easy and long courses which we have this week and by the way he can hit it close is a great approach player top 25 in the field he’s one of the most excited picks I have for
This tournament this week cannot wait to see what Brandon woo can come up with this week our next pick I think will also probably be pretty popular amongst other shows he’s just got a fun name to say toasty let’s ride Mr Toast Alejandro toasty at 55 to one now this is a guy
Whose stats absolutely jumped off the page he’s 13th and strokes gained off the the te he’s 15th in driving distance this is a man that can hit the ball a long damn way oh how about the proximity range we were talking about or earlier 200 to 225 yards he’s fourth and he’s
Played here before he has a top 10 finish he’s seventh in Strokes gained at vant viarta he’s ninth in Strokes gained on easy courses and he’s 10th in Strokes gained on Long courses I think toasty sets up really well again a guy who any other field this number might be double
What you’re seeing here but he’s playing Great Golf and I think this field is absolutely one that he can go and win so sign me up at 55 to1 we’re in on toasty this week and I think you’ll see a theme throughout the rest of the picks like
Are the numbers the best numbers maybe not the best that you could have gotten all week but I love the picks this week and I’m super excited for the rest of what we’ve got planned all right this next golfer for those of you that don’t follow golf at all
I would almost wager that the next four golfers including this one you never heard of them but hey that’s why I’m here to do the research and give you all the picks so you all can capitalize on the hours of research that I’m doing this next guy his number would typically
Probably be triple what we’re seeing this week Sam Stevens at 55 to1 I’ve heard of some people even getting him at 80 to1 this week 90 to1 this week I wasn’t fast enough but hey I still I don’t care I’ll take him at 55 to1 I
Love the stats for Sam Stevens this week he is eighth in driving distance he can hit it a long damn way he’s 23rd from 175 to 200 yards and he’s 14th from 200 to 225 yards he’s in the top 23 in both of the proximity buckets that we care
About and he’s second in an extremely extremely correlated course corales he’s second and strokes gained at that course oh and by the way he’s 14th and strokes gained on Long courses I think Sam Stevens is a great bet this week our next one this man’s won on the PGA tour
Already I’m a huge fan of his and I think he’s going to be a great golfer over the years to come Vincent Norman he has already proven himself on the PGA tour he’s won on the PGA tour he still has I guess I maybe he hasn’t proven
Himself he’s one on the PGA tour how many of the guys in this field can say that and we’re getting him at 65 to1 when I thought about distance this week this was the first name that came to mind he is third in driving distance he’s 15th in Strokes gained off the te
He’s 15th from 175 to 200 yards he’s 11th in Strokes gained at corales 12th in Strokes gained already at this course in 11th in Strokes gained in Easy scoring conditions he basically is top 15 and many of the stats that I have already iterated to you all that we care
About this week and we’re getting them at 65 to1 and he’s won on the PGA tour sign me up I was in on Vincent Norman before I even saw the odds this week at 65 to1 I’m absolutely in all right this next guy was somebody I went back and
Forth on between him and Alex mly but ultimately I landed on Nate Lashley you go back to 2022 Mexico open Nate Lashley was right near the top five going into Sunday he was sitting at around 14 under par and he finished that final round even so to me that says maybe he wasn’t
Ready to win the tournament at that point but again guys we’re getting somebody that has already won on the PGA tour at this number 80 to1 Nate Lashley sign me up he’s already finished tied for 11th here year in 2022 again he didn’t play well Sunday he very well
Could have been top five he very well could have won the damn thing he is top 25 from 175 to 200 from 200 to 225 from 225 to 250 he is the top 25 in all three of those I’m not sure how many other golfers in this field can say that he is
17th in Strokes gained at corales and 14th on this course already 19th and birdies are better gained 17 and strokes gain to cross par fives again for a guy that fits the mold of a person that has already had success here one on the PGA
Tour fits all these buckets I mean 80 to one sign me up for Nate Lashley let’s see if we can get lucky this week with the way this damn tour is gone this year this is absolutely somebody that can win at 80 to one we’re in on Nate Lashley
All right y’all last pick this one we are getting hella weird man I don’t even know how to pronounce this guy’s name exactly Alexander Bor 130 to1 I don’t necessarily think Alexander Bor is going to win this tournament but hey for a guy 130 to1 his stats I mean I I told y’all
Look at the top of the board I bet you you look at Alexander Bor stats are they really that different than Keith Mitchell stats the guy who’s 28 to1 30 to1 and this guy is 130 to1 so I’m going to throw my darts on people like this
Let’s see if we can get lucky he is sixth in this field in Strokes gained approach he is eighth from 175 to 200 yards and eighth from 200 to 225 yards this is a man he can hit it pretty far it’s fine he’s not the furthest in the
Field but with that second shot which we know matters a huge amount on this course he is in the top six in approach and top eight from those proximity buckets oh and by the way on other easy scoring condition courses he is second guys he’s 130 to1 what are we doing I I
Think he you may even get him at 150 to one at this point he’s 11th and birdies are better gained I am absolutely in on Alexander Bor this week all right y’all that’s it those are our seven picks for the Mexico open hey we have not hit an
Outright yet this year I would wager were probably far from alone considering last week keki Matt syama was the lowest odds at 80 to 90 to1 that’s one on the PGA tour this year so I think we are positioned well to absolutely hit a winner this week this ship is going to
Turn around people I’m feeling absolutely confident this is probably the most confident I felt of any of the picks that we’ve had this year I’ve spent probably the most time of any tournament than I have on any up to this point I’m ecstatic unlike probably many other people that
Follow PGA Tour you know from afar I’m pumped about the Mexico open I hope you all are too best of luck to us this week we’ll see you again next week let’s go get them baby
