Adam and Matt dig into a couple of national opens in Mexico and Kenya, but first a Genesis debrief.
Stats & odds – golf.vincerix.com
Bets & models – vincerix.com
Spotify – https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/vincerix/episodes/Mexico-Open-e2g0h7p
Apple – https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mexico-open/id1710266082?i=1000645920314
00:00 Genesis takeaways
12:40 Willy Z
14:45 Hideki
21:10 Cam Davis
23:20 Mexico keys
25:15 Tone
28:30 Nicolai
32:00 Jaeger bombs
34:45 Grillo
36:50 B Wu
39:10 DPWT guys
43:40 Detry vs Keith
46:30 Pendy
48:00 Sub 40 sucks
50:00 Down the board
57:30 Magical Kenya Open
01:05:45 Early movers
01:09:30 College hoops
All right President’s Day welcome back Matt gon jurs uh not a winning week for us last week but I don’t know if it was a winning week for for many people last week compelling week though and we’ll talk uh Jenny here in a in moments but
We’ve got a big week ahead of us Mexico open the magical Kenya open one of the highlights of the year I just put out this morning my official top 12 rankings of national opens both Mexico and Kenya in the top 10 I don’t think there’s any
Other week of the year where we get two top 10 National open so I was a little last night I was like ah what are we going to talk about on the Pod and then I woke up this morning and the juices were flown and I’m ready to go how are
You feeling about uh things this week yeah I tweeted out the graphic uh on Sunday when the PGA Tour posted the the events for the next week so Ken Kenya open Mexico open gets the gets the blood flowing I’m happy that I think a a Tony
Feno great showing in a [ __ ] field will really get the PGA Tour back to normal because that would just really that’s just what we get every single year so I’m hoping that’s the case I’m not maybe not win but hoping Tony can uh play well
And get p and and be the face of the PGA Tour game in a shitty event so that’d be nice yeah it’s almost like uh pressing the reset button if Tony fow can win a corn fairy tour SL PJ Tour event then that might be what we need to snap back
Things into place because last week uh we get another long shot winner in hadek even though he’s not of the long shot shots that we’ve had this year but I’d say I’d say wind Clark and Hideki kind of fall in the same bucket they’re in the like 80 to1 range and they both
Obviously have the caliber uh to win those types of events but went into the week we’re were wondering is this going to be a week where the big names rise to the occasion the Scotty shefflers the Rory maroy uh they largely did not instead we got Patrick Klay who’s obviously in in
Xander was up there going to the final round obviously bigname players and at this point some of the main top players on the PGA tour so going into the final round I saw some people saying like oh you know this doesn’t have the buzz this
Is kind of lame like these and it’s like if we can’t get excited about Patrick Klay and Xander shley being among the last few names or among the few names at the top of the leaderboard then you’re not going to get excited about anything on the PJ tour because these are two of
The best players and going to the final round it’s like that was kind of the best final round setup I think going into the final round so far this year yeah I mean we we had five names tied for T1 including Pat and Xander on the
Back nine like that’s that’s some of the best finish finishes we’re going to get I know Hideki pulled away before it got really hectic but I mean we saw a good finish like but personally I wasn’t like standing up like I usually am I don’t
Know what it was I think I was just so upset with Patrick klay’s performance and I guess even Xander too and I didn’t have any money on Pat but you know how I feel about Pat and you like Pat as well I’m sure you would like to have seen him
Step up and be the Patrick hlay that we talk about on a weekly basis but he did not show any signs of guts did not show any signs of doing anything well like you have a five shot lead going into the weekend two shot lead going
Into the day and you’re not even in the mix with eight holes left to play like you’re you have no chance like it’s pathetic yeah and you uh I believe last week you declared most likely not to win uh Patrick kley which was touch and go there for a second but ultimately the
Goal of who’s most likely not to win is kind of a guy who may get into the mix and not win so we’re actually we’ll count that as a as a win for you umly let’s talk about Klay really quick because he’s your guy we you famously
Last year bet him I think like 20 weeks in a row uh and then he almost won the very yeah he won none of those and then the first week you didn’t bet him was at FedEx when he almost did win that event um but we get the first round and the
Second round from KL that has looked a lot like the first rounds that he’s had this year I think it was the third or fourth time this year he shot 64 better in the first round which is Far and Away the most on tour and already like more
Than I think in total anybody had last year so like he’s come out guns blazing in some of these tournaments but as we’ve talked about the last couple of PODS too the swing has been touch and go for him in a way that it’s not the consistency that’s been there maybe last
Season and it’s specifically the left Miss we talked the left Miss at Tori we talked about him on the Range grinding through it uh he apparently was sick yesterday so maybe give him some benit the doubt on that but even throughout the week and they talked about this on
The broadcast and we got to see it on the broadcast because they’re showing a lot of the like range warm-up of the leaders and things like that on Golf Channel he is still grinding hard on the Range clearly wasn’t like fully comfortable with his swing and then he
Gets that there in the final round and we’ve got the left Miss in play and as soon as we saw the left Miss on the first few holes I had a feeling we might be in trouble uh and it turned out that we did but what’s the
Like I know you’re gonna say he’s not a winner at this point but the 0 for seven now I think with a 36 hole lead like let’s get an updated State of the Union on how you’re thinking about him now going forward because obviously he’s
Going to be top of people’s minds in a lot of these tournaments coming up over the next yeah I mean like I just think from what we saw this weekend and I usually you say someone’s on The Black List after you like lose a bet on him
But like I think from just watching that from like a non-biased I like Patrick anley but like a non-biased no money point of view that was utterly pathetic he showed no fight on Sunday even like he parred number one from like what was he in the right ref or maybe even even
In the Fairway I don’t know in the yeah he was in the Fairway yeah he was in the Fairway hit in the bunker it was a like a [ __ ] swing and yeah it was pathetic he had a few like swings I text in the chat they
Looked like he was just guiding the ball and trying to save him with his hands just looked very unconfident and I don’t know like what the deal is is he like does he think he is like these top players may think they are like we need
To perform so well and they just like are it’s too much for them it’s like when they’re younger and free flowing it’s just like they’re playing golf now they’re like I don’t know what it is but it’s tough how could you back a Patrick or a Xander when when you just witness
That for like x amount of time like we see it all the time and Xander was another story which I know you’ll talk about after he Lux sacked his way into the eagle what he did proceeding after that but Patrick you have a five shot lead and there was you were dead halfway
Through Sunday like that’s crazy that’s actually crazy I think the thing so like you’ve definitely your instant reaction even yester in the chat was was same thing like you were hard out on Pat and with the the area that I’ll like hold against him the most is it wasn’t just that he
Had a big lead going into the Saturday round there was a lot of gap between the Chasers and then like down into the you know T5 T6 T like he had a big gap over the rest of the chasing group where the hidis were where a lot of those guys who
Ended up getting their names up into the mix coming down the stretch and that round on Saturday when there was a lot of guys I think that might have been the easiest day of the week there’s a lot of guys shooting five six like that was the
Day where I think he lost the tournament because you go into su appar he woke up feeling sick all of a sudden the lead’s only two and two is not a big lead going into the final round of of any PGA event with some good before finished one right
So it was Saturday was the day he blew it for me at the end of the day though I will say it’s really really hard to go wire to wire and win any golf tournament like you just see it in in especially in an event like this where it’s so difficult
Because the margin for ER at Riv is obviously very fine and I think they did a good job this year of having like a very fine line of the setup where you could score but if you you if you [ __ ] it up like you’re going to pay the price
For it and when you’re trying to nurse that three four five shot lead and you’re kind of between the do I go for it do I like play it safe It’s just tough and then you get guys behind you like Hideki just says [ __ ] it I’m going
Guns blaz and like I’m going for broke and those guys who were T5 T6 t7 going into the weekend they just put the pedal down they take dead aim at pins and one of those players in in a PJ Tour Tournament is going to get hot and is
Going to convert on those chances so I’ll give kley the benefit of the doubt on that the player who I’ll give no benefit of the doubt on I tweeted it and is Xander is a disgrace like how does this like he’s such a good player across the board he might be the
Most consistent across every Strokes game category player on the PGA tour like you sure Scotty hits the ball better than him T to green and sure Rory bombs it off the T and can’t L can get going with the driver but across the bag putter around the green approach off the
Te and shley might be the best player on the PJ tour and one of the best in the world yeah yeah best in the world and you come in you you you’ve done nothing you get a bunker shot you hold it okay all of a sudden we’re we’re back in the
Mix and then you hit two drives they don’t even they barely reached the Fairway line like when you look at it on the shot link like tracker the ball is barely to the Fairway it how does like he clearly looks so frustrated you know a few holes
Later you could just see it in his face like I can’t believe this keeps happening but how does it keep happening I don’t understand it there’s like I totally agree and I I forgot what I was just going to say but how you you you’re in the mix you do
Whatever happens happens final pressure and then you just instantly gag it out of the mix how how does it keep happening I was goingon to make a point on on what you just said but I it just crossed my mind but yeah I it’s tough to back these two in in events going
Forward and I like I said I had no money on either of the two but I think it’s third party blackless from now on I I don’t know if I can do it I don’t and for just to quickly talk about the future events because I I think it’s
It’s always good to you know do a little reset after a signature event and think through like okay in you know a few weeks there’s going to be another signature event let’s try to remember some [ __ ] you know that we can apply to and we talked about this last time
Scotty Sheffer is a single bullet in almost every week besides if there’s a course where it’s truly T to Green like Mastery is the case I think Memorial is an example maybe beill because that’s just the success he said I was joking about it but it’s kind of true he’s like
A traveling he should enter like a traveling ball striking ex exhibition where he just travels around and shows off all his ball striking skills because as a golfer at the end of the day you have to be you have to make the putts and he’s so for me I’m like this is
Obviously a joking but somewhat serious take Scotty right now not a good golfer in my official assessment because you got to be good at everything if you want to be def find as a good golfer so Scotty disaster yeah and then Rory and then Rory Rory like he’s I mean we don’t even
Need to talk about Rory because it was so disgraceful what he brought out there like you’re making you play again pretty good in the first round and then you go six six in one of those sixes and on par three to just absolutely eject from the
Tournament so he’s under 10 to one every week but impos like ridiculous to back him then you get into the Xander range Vic he’s still broken like clearly something’s wrong with Vic can’t L like under 20 to1 none of these guys should you should bet any of these guys like
Period inel proven otherwise they’re unable in my opin and I remember what I was goingon to say about Pat and Klay before like we saw how that like Xander Gets In the Mix and then he’s out of the mix as soon as the two are out of the
Mix completely Fairway green both have Eagle looks on 17 and then can’t L drain a 50 putter on 18 like but there you go when you’re out of the mix you do something extremely special and that just really summed up the two the two golfers so that’s all I had to say and
And and what’s gonna happen isn’t again I’m not pointing out anyone else specifically I’m almost talking about myself because I do this too I know we all do it you almost did Scotty single bullet last week after we like talked about how bad of an idea that would be
Because it yeah you go look at the stats and in two three weeks when API is they’re going to stand out in the stats and oh it’s going to be beautiful the numers gonna be amazing but the point you just made is the one to remember it
Only takes three four five nine holes of of fuckups basically to take it from you’re winning this tournament to the T3 T5 T8 T10 that we see all these guys fall into consistently and yeah the numbers are going to pop off the screen and they’re going to be beautiful and
And oh this is the week fool me once fool me twice like it’s if you had just if if if you had started your cards in the 50s 60s this year you know everybody would have winners because the guys who are winning in those ranges you can piece together
If you give yourself the number of of chances down the board to find those guys and I my official stance right now is I would not be surprised if all four winners of the majors come from live this year like I genuinely think given uh the choice I I would take four
Winners from lip over the likelihood of of even one or two winners from the PGA Tour uh but with that said I think the best chance of a winner of a major from the PJ tour might be will zures your guy he’s back he looked great but kind of a
Will performance in the sense that he got right there and then didn’t close it out and some other guy kind of swooped him at the end uh a quick State of the Union also on your guy Willie Z I know you were thinking about him at Bill uh
We’ve definitely got him penil in as a probably 10 shot winner in Houston but are you going to pull the trigger uh in bill when the time comes oh yeah 100% And I’m even thinking to pull the trigger if he’s most tipped which is a
Lot for me but he was very highly tipped in uh Memphis when he won so uh yeah Will Al tourus I we saw in the first round he came out super hot draining those long putter long putts but I think he is on Pace faster than we thought he
Looks really good the numbers look solid and I was heavily even if I had zero dollars on I was heavily rooting for will he’s my favorite golfer and yeah if he he didn’t close it out but that was the first time he was in contention in
What over like 14 12 months cuz he wasn’t really In Contention last year at Rivier I know he had a good finish um but yeah he got into contention beautiful it’s going to come it’s gonna come this year I love what we saw from Will he looks he just looks like that
Guy on the golf course the high draw with the irons missed a few right but I think the the new swing that he’s got going he feels a lot more comfortable which he didn’t the first few months and we are on Pace for Houston for sure and
I think beay Hill is uh is on the that uh everybody remember that we’ll come back to this moment here in a couple of weeks but I agree he looked great uh I don’t think he’s just your favorite golfer I think he appears to be potentially a man of the people because
I think it was 13 he made that birdie putt that put him ahead by one for just a second before Hideki uh went on his tear but the crowd was really behind him probably behind him more than anybody else out there uh Willie Z man of the
People everybody loves him uh and like I said I think maybe the biggest threat on the PJ tour to uh win a major this year even ahead i’ put like I said i’ put him ahead of Scotty right now because the putting is so bad for Scotty right now
And it’s not it’s all in his head and until he can get out of that funk uh give me willly see uh on the PJ tour so yeah I think I’d probably be at beill too depending on the price if I’m that confident in him as a player but we
Can’t move on without talking about the winner of the tournament that’s Hideki I talked I don’t know if I talked about the Pod I’ve definitely been writing it up the first few tournaments of the year I bet him at Tor there were clear signs in his driving distance
Numbers that he was becoming healthy again and I I wrote about that earlier in the year because when he was Str struggling last year he’s been kind of up and down over the last year and a half his driving distance numbers were down so much because clearly his neck
Back something was a miss those numbers were trending back up the ball striking was looking pretty good but the putting had been absolutely horrible I bet him at Tori he three puted five Greens in a row like I didn’t see enough with the putter to like him at either even
Phoenix or this week he also didn’t put good at Phoenix which is of course where you know normally has success he puted okay I would say but Hideki just proves that every once in a while it’s hard to pin down when he’s going to do it but
When those irons get toasty hot those approach shots into 15 and 16 maybe the best consecutive iron shots to win a golf tournament that I can ever remember seeing yeah that was that was Unreal and I you were on him at Tori and I was I
Gave a strong case for him at Pebble I wish I would have hung on to those because those iron numbers were trending but uh yeahi just he’s a guy you can never just count him out when he gets going because even if like he’s out of
The tournament he he he’s still has one of those rounds in him just to obviously it boosted him to number one but he has those rounds like every now and then will hold shoot a 62 to finish T t7 just something like that so yeah it worked
Out for him in the end obviously he needed some help from the top of the leaderboard but the top of the leader board was a bunch of gutless guys so it worked out in hideki’s favor and like you said with with uh the the the fine
Line of going for it or not Hadi had those a few iron shots where he like didn’t love and they were probably a feet a few feet from turning into a bogey like on that po three what was that number 16 16 16 he he was leaning
It just carried the bunker if he gets under that lip that’s a four at minimum and but you just got to have those guts to either be all in or be all out and like you said with the leaders they were kind of on the on the line of do I go
For it do I not go for it and Hadi went all in and it clearly paid off yeah and I think that’s what Hideki does I think that’s why he is a guy that should always be under consideration when he’s in the 50 to one or above just because
When he gets a sniff of the mix he’s going at the pin it doesn’t matter like it doesn’t matter to Hideki if he wins or loses like he he’s taking dead aim and I think we saw that because it was basically as soon as it got to that
Five-way TI I was like oh [ __ ] this is going to be a crazy finish like anybody could win within 15 minutes Hideki had almost hold consecutive approach shots and it was kind of over assuming that he could uh Birdie the par five and I think
The par five the way he played that will get overlooked because of how magical those two approaches he stepped up on that part five you can’t go in the bunker on the right because that’s an automatic layup if you go there pipes one dead down the center and then
That three-wood that he hit was mashed like it went through the back of the green but it’s because he nutted that 3-wood like you couldn’t hit it was like one of those machines that does the the trains or does the club testing it was like three straight holes where he did
Not miss by a millimeter the center of the club face no yeah he he uh I think that that number he had like 279 to the flag and the flag was in the front right he hit it like 20 yards past the flag in
The heart of the green it was like a a 312 carry with a three-wood and it just and he got it up and down for B like that was just reminiscent of Sony Open obviously it wasn’t directly at the flag but that was absolutely nutted he was
Just balls to the wall free walling like that was I like keki I like when he wins so that was good to say yeah I think like kadek is one of those guys who I don’t think he has like people aren’t on a weekly basis saying like kadek is my
Guy like I want Hideki to win like I’m Runing him for hii but every time Hideki Gets In the Mix I think people are like Ohi go like you know supporty I likey I love his caddy uh that guy’s dope that guy the picture of him uh smoking after
The round setting up above the it roof was pretty sweet and I will say too about Hadi like I’ve the last couple years gone to most of the major like practice rounds Hadi grinds so hard compared to pretty much every other player like you can’t go to the course
In a practice round and not see Hideki either on the course or on the Range like just grinding and I One Time sat there for 30 minutes I think at Brooklyn before he uh right behind him on the driving range like my seat was I could
Almost reach out and grab his Club in the back swing and just watching him hit iron shots they don’t curve at all when he doesn’t want like like it’s like a bow and arrow like it’s just absolute ball striking machine so shout out hii great win for him and I think
Why couldn’t um going back to PJ players who could win Majors this year uh I think keki like hideki’s done it uh he always mixes in Majors the short game so good that like he just keeps he stays afloat like just always he’s got a long Street Long stretcher he did have long
Stretch of made cuts and Majors so uh I’ll have my eyes on Hideki major Futures I’m sure they dip down after this win but we might get some uh rise back up but I’ll have my eyes on hii come major season as well yep yeah know
I agree with you it’s going to be tough for the for the major PJ tours this year and I was a massive uh person who said live has no chance in the majors last year obviously I was wrong uh State of the Union on that is to be determined so
We have some time and I will get back to you on that all we’ll be on the lookout for that as we continue into uh March and April once the Masters comes around but this week Mexico open vant via I love Mexico uh few years ago went down
To Mexico City solo trip great time I’ve I’ve had a soft spot in my heart for Mexico uh forever since then now Port know where that close to Mexico City uh it is a shame they don’t have the that tournament they played in Mexico City the the WGC that they played at uh
Chipul pek or whatever it was because that’s right in the heart of Mexico City if they still had that event I’d be going every year because that place uh Mexico City is sweet that course is sweet uh we’re down a little bit further south on the water here like I said last
Week I didn’t really have anybody in the mix I don’t think you had anybody in the mix that I remember our boy BK Of course had Klay shout out to him for the Klay first round leader uh but I just had a a bunch of guys who were kind of like T30
The whole week Cam Davis and then he quick quick Cam Davis conversation because we talked about him last week you were high on him obviously you bet him that that was they should put that second round and first round on cam Davis’s uh gravestone because it was the
Most typical Cam Davis performance that I think we’ve ever seen yeah and he did the same thing on the weekend too he was like three under on the front line every single day he was nine under T1 on Friday afternoon with didn’t play 10 didn’t play 11 two birdie chances and he
Shot like a 41 on that back nine and then he shot the same thing on the back nine he did the same thing on Saturday went three under on the front nine and then just ejected on the back nine like horrific swings not like bad breaks
Horrific golf it was just I was actually genuinely upset because I was doing my my Friday live show just like state of the leaderboard while it was still going because I went to a concert that night usually I do it after I was like oh Cam
Davis oh another bogey oh he missed the for another bogey I was like genuinely like tilting on the Stream So State of the Union on Cam Davis I mean he flashed he was a long shot I’m not all mad but it was quite embarrassing he finished like t50
Something like that yeah I really think I mean there’s different levels to this like I think the biggest uh waste of talent right now on the PJ tour is a tie between Xander and Scotty uh because like Scott at the end of the day like we’re seeing generational of a 13 clubs
In the bag and you’re just dropping the ball at the put every week so that’s a that’s a disappointment for me and then we know the story with Xander Cam Davis though obviously not in the same tier as those guys he’s so good he’s so talented
You watch him in person and it’s like in the practice rounds nobody hits the ball better than Cam Davis it’s a joke how he hits it like last year at Lac him and Windham Clark I texted about like they stood out as the best play like just
Purely watching them hit the best two we know what Clark did I still think that potential is there for Cam Davis but the mental side of the game for Davis is clearly uh a weak because it’s such a roller coaster with him and I I do think
Like in the hundreds if he keeps popping up 100 to one in these type of events just swing the swing the uh take a swing at that every time because like he could do it but yeah he’s a disappointment for me he’s not in the field uh this week in
Mexico he would be the type of player that we’d be on the lookout though for this weekend Mexico uh pretty straightforward stuff here it’s not just a narrative it’s a fact uh Drive the ball well here Strokes gained off the te distance a huge Advantage uh without a
Doubt I read Tony phen presser from last year he listed off driver or he said something about driver and driving distance seven different times in his uh post final round press conference just saying like they were like why do you love this course why do you play so well
He’s like I love to hit my driver it’s all about driver here my distance is an advantage my long irons are an advantage here uh that’s the story of this course and interestingly a tricky little tidbit that I’ll toss in here too it is a birdie Fest in the sense that the
Scoring will be low this week and the weather looks fine like I think we get sub 20 winner but it’s actually bogy avoidance has ranked out a little bit highly here uh as a stat of correlation than the birdie making and I think that might be why we’ve seen some of the
Better players in the field obviously Rah and Fina going back to back with the exact of first second like it’s just as much about avoiding trouble on some of the longer difficult par fours because then if you can take advantage of the par fives and some of the shorter holes
You’re going to score so not as pure of a birdie Fest in my opinion as some other events we might have on the calendar yeah I 100% agree you got to be able to hit your long irons well and hit your middle irons well it’s not like
You’re getting a wedge on every single hole out here so 100% agree but you also got to have the the ability to keep the pedal down and make a ton of birdies so uh it’s not a golf course that’s going to lend itself to five like five 200 to one guys in the
Top 10 there’s going to be some some good players I mean for for the field it’s going to be some of the better players uh coming down the stretch at least I hope yeah we we’ll keep we’re going to be we’re going to be right
About that one of these weeks if we say the top players are going to be up there and we say it every week we’re B to be right one of these weeks and the top player this week uh go to golfop and.com we’ve got the odds page up now it’s got
The model scores on there it’s got course history it’s got recent form it’s got the best odds and also shows how those odds kind of move over time which I think is interesting to look at uh clear number one this week he uh you can
Get a seven to one on him right now so that’s right in the range that if you’re going to fire a single bullet like that’s a perfect price on a single bullet That’s Tony feno uh we talked about feno last week I put out a public service announcement and I said if Tony
Now has changed something with his putting I need to be alerted because he will win the Genesis open and then he comes out on the very first hole of the tournament that putter blade instead of being tilted up like this was flat down on the ground he rolls in like a
40-footer for eagle and I instantly was like what a disaster we have in our hands here Tony Pina has fixed his putter nobody told me we’re gonna have a Windam Clark situation that ended pretty quickly the putter went back to [ __ ] the ball striking remains tremendous uh I
Think I think I think this is we’ve said this last couple weeks I haven’t come on here and say I think the favorites are are legitimately going to win I think I’ve said I think the favorites aren’t going to win these tournaments I think feno is the best chance for a favorite
To win so far this season but uh he’s the best priz on BET Rivers which I never like uh the putter is much worse than it was last year even though he can putt these greens pretty well so I’m not going single bullet on Tony is it under consideration for you not under
Consideration um just because I don’t like the BET guys going back to back but besides that um like let’s go back to the Instagram post he cares about this he posted on Instagram how he was excited to defend Mexico like he did not have to say that he clearly wants to be
Back here clearly wants to be on the PJ tour and defend this event and like yeah he fits the narrative he’s a long long hitter but the ball striking is like some of the best we’ve seen from Tony F now which is always uh which is definitely nerve-wracking heading into
The event not backing him but I just would rather not back a 7 to1 call for when we see all these long shots winning but it would be extremely on brand and for we get all these long shot winners in a long shot field birdie Fest and
Then Tony fenale wins it’s GNA happen like it’s just like you can see that happening too right right yeah no I’m literally saying it would surprise me the least of any tournament this year if Tony win like I think this is the most true favorite of any tournament so far
This year if he gains with the putter he will win this tournament I don’t like I don’t see any way he doesn’t so if you give me seven chances basically and I need him to gain the putter gain with the putter one time I think he can do it
Here he gained last year but the putting is just so like last year he came in l25 and was gaining point2 per round so like positive putter coming into this tournament last year he is negative. five right now so like the putting is just so much worse and maybe he gets on
These screens he obviously loves this placees besides talking about the driver in his press conference every other word was like my family [ __ ] loves Porto Viera we love vant we know Tony travels with the family so they’ll all be there they love this place like he is going to
Play well if Tony isn’t like a true threat to win on the back nine I will be surprised but I think just enough putts don’t fall uh where it won’t be a fale week but he should be tough to beat in this field at this course agree the next tier of players actually
Let’s nikai hoard our we talked about him last week he did not play very well last week he didn’t play terrible uh he played fine I still think he wins at Rivier at some point in his career like it’s a course where not a lot of first-time winners win at all and we
Talked about that said let’s still roll the dice at 66 to one uh did not work out we also saw uh first time Debon leig oberg uh did not play that well last week either so the the the course history piece last week I think a guy
Like hoard who didn’t play too good last week you can kind of let that slide because of the course history he comes in here at 18 to one um obviously this place makes all of the sense in the world for the skill set that he has but sub 20
To1 that’s tough for me I think I’ll I’ll still kick it around this week but is that just a pure no-o for you at 18 to1 or do you think that’s uh still worth poking around up no I I I definitely I definitely do like Nikolai here because he played it last year
Which I really like he knows how to manage this these conditions and we saw him almost win corales which is not the same Golf Course but a similar style of golf and uh look at the field just come on this is when when I was looking at
Like the top names on the dra on the DraftKings like I was like okay hodg guard olssen dri I was like is this like a DP World Tour event because they were like three of the top the 10,000 guys I was like what the hell and so yeah uh
This is like a not a good field beat you’re giving me like Nikolai versus Tony feno versus a few other guys at 18 to1 I can talk I can talk about it I don’t love the fact that he’s might have to get get 25 under but like yeah long
And straight off the te Elite iron player get hop with the putter has played here before I think I he’s definitely under say yeah I would agree and and uh one of the top crossover we don’t obviously have many years of data uh Von but through two years one of the
Top crossovers is Tori um I think the driving and the long iron play being a reason for that and obviously Rah and feno have have played great at Tori Nikolai was just in the mix there and two your point he’s played corales uh he played well there he uh I think he might
Have played another one of the like Puerto Ricos or something uh but either way he can handle these conditions and if you just go down the next like is he a better golfer than amelon agrio yes is he a better golfer than Steven Jagger yes is he a better golfer than Thor
Olson yes is he like he is the second best player without a doubt in this field and maybe longterm the best player in this field because I still think he’s got number one potential in him uh fow has had plenty of time in his career to
Show that he could be number one I don’t think we’re going to get there with tone so purely on skill set I agree that hoard the next best player in this field I’ll give him a thorough look my only question with him is like you don’t need
To be amazing around the greens here but you still need to be able to gain a little bit especially on those par fives if you miss the green you got to be able to get up and down you’re going to hit in a few bunkers for sure that is the
Biggest weakness uh in his game and the putter hasn’t been toasty hot recently but he can obviously put the past palum uh he’s a he’s a very volatile putter like when it spikes it really spikes when it doesn’t spike it doesn’t Spike uh but sure why not Nikolai and uh in this
Field yeah I love that Tory connection you made because I earlier during during my DFS show I thought about it with Mike Kim I was like Mike Kim popped at Tori and look at ROM Fen now and now now I’m definitely think I might be on like him
But uh yeah that’s a great crossover that you’re referenced yeah so again over at Vin sik’s crossover top 10 crossover winners always an interesting thing to look at the man who sits a top the model this week uh he has always models out well he finally paid off
Modeling out well at Tor Steph Jagger Jagger bombs I was on him here last year uh I remember him like just striping the [ __ ] out of it here last year and then missing so many short putts uh let’s see what the actual ball striking Figures were for Stevie eggs around here last
Year yeah yep plus 7.2 with approach last year here lost off the t uh but he’s obviously ated distance to his game now driving a lot better was great around the greens here got pwned on the greens but when you’re looking for a like he’s
T to Green as good as any player in this field uh we know the putter es and flows he’s T15 t18 the last two years here gets the confidence off of the Tory performance I’m not convinced that he’s going to be on the card this week but I
Can’t argue with the model number one of Stevie eggs uh here in the Mexico also under consideration I mean what we’ve seen from Jagger is anytime he has gotten into the mix he’s not looked well he he looked okay for a longer period of time at Tory than he has I forget what
Tournament it was last year when he was like the 36 hole leader or was winning on Friday and then [ __ ] the bed the next day on Saturday it was another Resort style course I don’t know the specifically the one you’re referencing but I did have him at the Byron and he played really
Good at Byron he kind of faded uh in the third round but that’s another course I think Byron’s a reasonable comp here another course where like it’s a low-scoring event but ta to Green play is more important than like Spike putting ability so I’m down yeah but like there’s
There’s there’s not really any other people where I can say like everyone’s going to be a loser so I I like Jagger in that in that aspect and I to the Tory crossover is really making me like things more which I wasn’t really thinking about heading into this show so
I I definitely under consideration going forward uh the red flag on Jagger also highest uh odds right now on BET Rivers surprisingly bet Rivers is a book that like you’re not going to get the best odds on a lot of guys on BET Rivers usually and usually like I said last
Week and I talked about in the Discord uh I don’t like when I see a guy with the best odds on B Rivers I’ve tracked this for a couple years and it almost never hits I don’t know what they know but uh they tend to know and like of the
Guys at the top of the board you can get the best odds on BET rivers on tone uh Nikolas no Grio no but then Jagger olison pendy PR Jake knap van royan dve T Brandon woo all those guys the best on BET Rivers red Flex all of them for me
Uh this week okay that’s defin yeah they are a sharp book for whatever reason so that’s definitely something to note but Nikolai is not there so nikai and Grio what’s the the deal with Grio I uh I don’t think he can win but uh I agree
And like he look Grio if Grio was 35 to one sure take a flyer he’s one of the favorites and you’re you’re asking him to get to 25 under look Rio has figured out the Putter and he’s played a lot what he’s played a lot better with the
Putter um also the iron play and the ball striking is’s just it makes he makes a ton of sense and he finished T5 for last year yes but I think that T5 was like 16 under Grio is not a guy I want
To a bet at 18 to1 where I have to put a lot of money up for him to possibly get to 25 under you you want to bet these long shot Guys these guys who are younger and just don’t know anything else but to keep going low and guys who
Have done it on the corn fairy tour and stuff like that Grio is not a just not a 25 under guy like he won at Colonial what was that score like nine under eight under like 10 under like that uh eight under playoff yeah and the other
Thing about Grio is like he was he’s been 150 to one like most weeks so far this year and now he comes down just because the field drops and the course history moves third in the odds like I don’t think it makes much sense and what
I like to do like for right or wrong is I like to when a guy finishes T5 or he’s got good course history somewhere or he’s got a good finish I like to look at what was the statline in that finish and can I imagine him improving upon
Whatever that was and when we look at what he did here last year negative off the T sure he could gain a little bit off the T he’s not gonna gain a ton he doesn’t have the distance uh to gain a ton off of the T he gained over eight on
Approach Pro probably the best for the season for him I would imagine like is he going to put up his very best approach numbers again this week maybe probably not he lost around the greens he loses around the greens every week he’s one of the worst around the green
Players on the PGA tour and he gained four with the putter he could gain four with the putter again I just don’t see how what like there’s not could he do that same stat line again maybe but can he improve on that stat line in the key
Areas to win the tournament I don’t think so let’s do that same exact exercise you just did with Brandon woo I want you to look at Brandon woo Brandon woo uh famously one of the most best driving accuracy performances in the history of golf here last year we still
Talk about it to this day he’s coming off of a performance uh at waste where he lost three Strokes off the te uh that he before we look at his stats from last year he’s one of the most just like it’s either happening or it’s not happening
Like beo pops or it he doesn’t pop like when it’s going good it’s going really good but like his most guys you look at their profiles and like you see some consistent in certain stats his is it’s either like he gains a [ __ ] ton in any
Category or he loses a [ __ ] ton so always tough to say but his stats here last year he uh gained 3.6 off 3.2 off the te gaining with accuracy and distance he could probably do that again uh because he he’s done that the last two years like anytime I see a guy two
Years in a row kind of do the same thing it’s like okay he likes this course or something going on so could good gain off the te sure approach he lost on approach last year but his approach has looked pretty good uh over the last few weeks around the
Green he’s highly inconsistent around the green but he did gain last year and then he just [ __ ] on these greens like he gets on the P he was making so many long putts last year he gained eight Strokes putting last year he gained six the year before what what are his odds
See that that’s just my concern he did it all with the short game and like I know he need to make a ton you need to make a ton but he didn’t hit the ball great that’s why that’s why I wanted to do it because I knew he was like all
Putter last year yeah 40 to one Brandon will that’s enough for me and and he’s 90 no he’s 80 what he’s $99,100 on DraftKings he’s not that much better of a golfer right now than his brother who’s $6,900 on DraftKings hold on let’s look at Dylan Mo like I was egregious
Pricing from those two yeah Brandon woo uh I don’t play much DFS but uh 9100 if he was pop like that’s no I’m good on Brandon woo sure he could play well T3 T2 anyone with a brain can look and see his course history and go he could play
Well here again I’m not going to argue with that uh I just think he’s so volatile that he could also easily miss the cut uh Dylan woo not playing that great he uh he sucks uh yeah I’m good on Dylan I’m good on both of the Woos i c out on both of
The Woos this week uh that’s not going to be for me uh let’s talk about some of the DP World Tour players really quick because we’ve got a lot of DP players in the field this week uh we know the DP players can win Pavone has opened the
Door for DP players winning in these type of fields we’re we’re seeing them high on the oddport it’s crazy to see our boy thorbjorn Olson thorbjorn Olson is 28 to1 in this field thorbjorn Olson on the DP World Tour most weeks is could be 40 to1 like yes most but in recent
Weeks he’s been 20 30 to1 he was 18 to1 or so at uh Raz when1 there but like Thor is lower price in this field than he is on the DP World Tour I yeah and this is like this is the first PJ tour start of 2024 right yeah so I don’t I
Was shocked at his DFS price I was shocked at his odds I think a lot of is being taken out of that recent win which like why I know this isn’t murderer row of a field but still we’ve seen guys like Victor Perez come out here’s good
Golfer and he’s looked like whoa the PJ tour is a different level Ryan Fox last week in the mix or two weeks ago in the mix at uh Phoenix pissed down his leg on the weekend Pavone’s a different breed but I I think Pon would have won quickly pavon
Would have won Ri so e like they wouldn’t even need to play the fun round because pavon would have been so far ahead uh but yeah so and the thing about uh olon I like olon I uh Thailand I had him in Thailand great Victory uh together there he’s a great player he’s
A great iron player the short game’s awesome good putter the driving’s highly inconsistent like when he drives it well he plays well but it it’s kind of touch and go there’s no like statistically it all kind of makes sense for him this week it’s just like you’re getting no
He’s not sneaking up on anybody with the pricing on ol I was shocked and like for him to be 103 we see Sammy valaki down there 6700 Bor 7,300 there’s no reason that either of the two I know bork is not the great best course fit for the either of those
Either to either of those two golfers could easily beat thores this week like without it no one would be surprised I mean if this was a if all of these DP guys were playing in a DP event on average over the last six months you could like Bobby Mack would
Be up there and he’s like 150 to one or something like that Sammy Valley would Sam Valley probably wouldn’t be up there his odds were kind of always long but big dick Vic Perez would be up there Fox would be probably ahead of him uh Rio
Would be up there Rio’s Rio it’s Rio’s I don’t love what’s happened with his pricing I thought we’d get more under the radar from Rio I don’t love the course fit uh this week for Rio but yeah thorb his iron plays unreal yeah Rio’s a
Stud I love Rio but uh yeah the DP guys i’ if you just go down the board and take the DP guys further down the board I think is the simple uh solution this week because they’re all kind of the same Vic Perez I I like Vic Perez this
Week the way he drives it his ball striking has been pretty good get him on the pass palum uh maybe he can get something going it’s not a perfect comp but there’s some stuff that overlaps with the Italian Open here uh with uh just the kind of you got to bomb it from
The tea and then the the grass types and stuff on and around the green so uh Vic pres played good there Bobby Mack I know you don’t I know you’re out on Bobby Mack but I think Bobby Mack might have something up his sleeve he’s been he’s
Been hitting the ball fine he’s been putting terrible get him on the pass get him on the pass palum I know he’s been practicing he’s the type of guy who can just pop like you can play terrible and then be good again at 130 to one and like 7,000 on
DraftKings in a in a course where we’ve talked about like it’s a balance between birdie making and avoiding Bogies greato bogy avens no I’ll poke around Bobby Mack this week why not that’s I I did not think you would go there but uh I probably won’t be joining you but I I
Like what you’re saying pass palum might be the solution but like we think Scotty is a bad putter just Bob Max putting numbers are I laughed when I saw how bad they have been but I think a lot of that has to come with being in America added
Pressure stuff like that he’s not that bad he’s not a bad butter he’s really not but that will come around sooner or later maybe this grass will help him I’m not I don’t think I’m gonna bet him this week because he’s just not quite firing yet we’ve got our eyes obviously on him
At the vbar uh that’s going to be an easy victory for Ryan Fox but if you want to bet Thor or rson bet Ryan Fox because there’s no reason that Thor should ever be lower odds than fox in any tournament so take Fox uh two great drivers here kind of around the same
Price 28 to1 or 30 to one one of them is your guy one of them is another guy that from time to time I know you love to get on give me one you can only have one Thomas dietry or Keith Mitchell kill a Keith uh you can only only put one on
The SE this week or you put on the c um probably by to probably uh Keith Mitchell because people are going to bet Thomas dietry Thomas dietry will be popular and I know he’s he loves he loves these conditions he moved down to either yeah corales Puerto Rico he moved
To Puerto Rico or Bahamas what uh I think it’s caral yeah caral okay he moved to a resort island and he he plays out of these sty of courses so he should be comfortable but uh it’s I feel like it’s in if he can’t win in Belgium and
Do it in his own home soil I don’t really see him doing it in the near future and I’m a big Thomas diet guy my problem with dietre is even it like I was shocked when I looked at his stats because obviously he’s been playing really good to start this year and and
Tori and Pebble his driving’s been awesome and the putting has been awesome but he’s losing he’s lost approaching around the greens in all three of those starts it’s like a it’s a minu Lee type of stat line um where like can he finish top 10 with those stats probably but
This isn’t NE this isn’t driver putter like it’s driver ball striking and you use that to set yourself up for good birdie look so I’d much rather take a guy who is a great ball Striker but struggles with the putter here than the driver putter guys like dietry who are
Going to miss too many greens and that’s going to be that difference between he’s going to make a couple more Bogies than the guys who are just keep hitting greens playing it safe because all of those guys are still going to capitalize on the par fives and on the easy holes
It I think the thing about this course that kind of goes under the radar is like you just can’t [ __ ] up the hard holes and I could see dietre making a double bogey or something like that surely making a dou he’s a double bogey King and about that driver putter Keith
Is a driver putter guy but his irons are clicking of late so I like that for Keith and I I do bet Keith here and there and I like he is like not he’s just not he’s not good like he won once but he never he yeah what’s your say I
Don’t know what to say I like him but I don’t know if I want to pull trigger I’m not like 30 to one on Keith Mitchell is a is a recipe for being absolutely pissed off like at some point because and I think that’s I mean yeah like what
This is it’s this is true of the whole PGA Tour this year like like I said can f now win yeah I would not be surprised in the slightest F know can hoard win sure the the price on Grio you’re getting a guy who’s 151 a few weeks ago
He’s 21 Stephen Jagger literally mixed has mixed one time in his entire PGA Tour CER olison hasn’t played on the PGA tour in like a long ass time good player can win D3 no need to comment there uh and then you get to pendy and Keith Mitchell pendy what what he’s number two
In the model uh he’s played here before I think whenever he makes sense and and I bet him it’s like a he like misses the cut like truthfully like pendy should make a lot of sense on this Golf Course Long off the te and tap into everything
Else like finished T30 here last year but like pendy popped he don’t look now but he’s got two top 10 this year like he’s playing good golf but where did he pop in the fall kind of out of nowhere uh Shriners he gain across the board
Shriners but that’s not a course I think he’d Excel on one I agree with you that pendy every single time I’ve said this is a pendy course it’s end up backfiring here’s my concern and again when you a course history like when looking something up about course history about
A guy this is a course where if I told you Taylor pendrith is playing he’s going to gain off the T he lost off the te here badly he lost Two Strokes off the T so it’s not like it’s not like he’s driving amazing right now he’s lost
Strokes off the te in two of his last four starts like I don’t want a guy whose game is distance who you would expect to gain off of the te easily at this course to lose off the te so I’m good on pendy then you get Keith
Mitchell we just talked about him he’s Gonna Let You Down uh Patrick Rogers that that guy couldn’t you wouldn’t bet Patrick Rogers at 33 to1 if he was playing against a bunch of like fourth graders so like I like like he makes sense but it’s just like
He’s not going to win uh so then we get to Ryan Fox like maybe fox makes sense I don’t know then here we go your boy Jake knp uh not like you said you love his statistical but we’re just like we’re down to the 40 to ones already and
There’s not a single guy who you just would feel comfortable saying like right this is my guy under Chap’s odds 40 to one that’s insane what has he done besides like backdoing a solid finish one time his career that’s it it’s and and have cool Instagram and Twitter stories like that’s
It and his swing looks good on uh the broadcast when they they’re going to break down his swing in four 4K or whatever and they’re going to be like damn this thing is beautiful he uh yeah should he play well sure this is something I also like to do with the
Corn fairy guys I like to look back and see what these guys have won in their lives because pendy is a great example of this pendy forever has been a guy like pendy has one only on the Canadian tour in his life and like if you can’t
Win on the the corn faery I don’t know if you can Wi on the PJ tour Jake Napp is is 29 years old it’s not like we’re talking about a young uh golfer here his best finish last year on the corn fair was a TI for fifth he’s won in Canada uh
He’s won in Canada a few times but like 40 to one on the PGA tour unreal absurd horrible bet like no and he’s he’s going to be chart I promise you oh he’ll be people will be on him uh van Ryan’s 40 to1 at least EVR yeah yeah of these we’ve listed off
The first time guys on the board EVR is the first one I’m like yeah he can win and 40 to one’s Fair uh Dave T and then there’s Brandon woo there’s Rio hober like Justin su he could he could I like Su so it’s I think what we’ve realized
And I haven’t didn’t really think about it till we kind of got into the Pod and or talked through the guys I’m leaning towards starting down the board who’s give me some guys I know you you met I think you did your like sub 6K uh draftking show already so far you’ve
Been thinking about it there’s a lot of guys sub 6K but like yeah down the board give me some names that just pop up like you’re eye on these guys I know obviously a MTH mcne is going to be on your uh Horizon give me some names uh
That were I I mean even lower I’ll I’ll go uh just because if if you just bet a guy a bunch of guys who have flashed and the the numbers right and you don’t know what their ceiling could be in an event like this that’s a I feel like is a
Great recipe for Success one of the one of my vintage 12 man card of starting at like 80 81 you’re going to have to luckily you have Twitter blue because not all the guys will fit in a normal Twitter post to get all the guys on
There yeah like guys like Garrick higo a winner with all the talent in the world who can bomb it the season a quick higo note before the year I wrote up higo as one of my top eight most likely breakout players because of the fact that he’s
Got all the talent in the world I like hi yeah and he’s like over over 100 to one um Joseph bramlet finish T10 here bombs it we don’t I mean he’s been out here for a little bit but like he’s still we don’t know the most about him
Harry Hall this is what his third year on tour second year on tour driver putter build the irons are a question mark but it’s a long shot uh guys like Grayson Sig he finished okay here in two starts can hit it can hit the ball all
Right far and like I I like these kinds of guys what’s your thoughts on chasty too he hits the ball a mile but Alejandro uh played well here last year here’s what I’m going to do because I think this is if you’re looking for some long shots I don’t know
Much better good this week we’re uh I’m sorted by strok SK ball striking l20 and here let let me grab some distance guys here too and I’m just gonna we’re going to quickly talk through some guys and you’re just going to give me a yay or
Nay on kind of like how you’re feeling about these guys who fit the course profile of distance and good ball striking um and are gonna be can they mix uh a guy who I know you love he doesn’t fit the distance but he has been
Striking the golf ball he’s a man who is mixed on the PJ tour he won the Utah Championship which I think is a bomber course on the corn fairy Canadian Roger Sloan leads the field and ball striking coming in here Roger can Roger mix uh
Yeah he almost won at the 3M open which is of course that has a similar similar profile almost won wind him uh like he’s mixed on the PJ too oh yeah he was in that playoff T2 the Puerto Rico open T2 at the Puerto Rico open pass palum give
It to me Roger SLO what is what are the odds on Roger got like 200 one 175 hopefully even more hopefully we can get a big number on Roger 250 to one Roger SLO on the SE uh okay Roger canm miix uh there’s some guy I’ve never heard of before
Named Tom Whitney he gained a [ __ ] ton ball striking he finished t13 at Farmers uh so what yeah Tom Whitney t-13 at Farmers keep your ass out for Tom Tommy witz Del witz watch out for Tommy uh Patrick Fishburn he uh was come up from
The kft he bombs it he’s he’s 32 years old almost so that’s uh he’s not yeah he’s not sneak it up on anybody here this is a guy like he can win on the PTA to or he can mix T4 caros punana championship in uh 2022 uh Johnny Vegas
Johnny Vegas is on his way back I like Johnny Vegas this week I’m expecting Johnny Vegas to actually like be some somewhat popular last week just because he’s back and we saw him in the mix uh in in Phoenix not in the mix on the leader yeah uh the putter does scare me
But it always does with Vegas what what are Johnny’s thoughts let’s see I’m go with 85 no 66 on Johnny you’re not that’s that’s tough but a a high floor type of guy I think at a course like this because oh Vincent Norman dude let’s talk about him Vinnie all right so
We’ve had him penciled in as the winner of the Canadian open uh I do believe he he’s on the card he’s on the card he’s finally ball striking it I’m not sure his odds but he’s he’s missed a few cuts but he’s hitting the ball well again
Which is good to see uh not as good as he was hitting it before barbasol but he’s just a guy who can bomb it out there far he made the cut at Tori no he didn’t he missed the cut at Tori no he made the cut at Tory which is a great
Sign because that’s a course were obviously crossover he uh he gained in every Strokes gain category here last year t18 he’s 70 to1 the putter has something really wrong is happening with the putter hopefully he gets back on the pass pound can fix it really
Wrong it’s going to be I think it’s a for me on Vinnie but I I not a no for the C well maybe I agree he can wi we know he could win we know he could win if this was a DP twice already yeah yeah you’re right all right I’ll think about
It I’ll think about it for sure Vinnie uh this is the guy that I wanted to talk about this is potential winner of the tournament Parker Cy I know you’re high on him as well Parker Cy this man uh like 130 I think is I I got him I
Grabbed him this morning he’s the only guy who’s officially on the sea uh so far he’s uh 125 I think I got a 130 on him he bombs it from the T he’s put up backto back over 1.5 per round approach numbers at uh farmers and the AMX played
Good on the corn last year was a good college player uh the putter in the short game is hit and miss but maybe he’s good on pass palum ball striking wise this guy’s as good as anybody in the field 130 to1 young player I think he matches all the like things that
We’re we’re on the look for yeah he finished top five on the corner FR tour five times last year and those are events where you have to take it low as hell so clearly he’s still in that mindset at least maybe down when he gets
A little older he’ll be more of a Diffy se’s guy because the ball striking is so good but he knows what it’s got to take to take it low and like these guys this young like their focus is to play really good to win golf tournaments because he
Knows like he’s so young if he wins on the PGA tour massive storyline and he’s just going to be like the new toy of the PGA tour so if we can get ahead of those stories that would be awesome and like you said I totally agree with you when I
Wrote him up on yesterday for you I like I popped I was like what the hell these ball striking numbers have looked insane for his early PJ tour career yep uh that pretty much J one guy here I know nothing about him I’m just going to tell you that his off the te
Numbers are delightful some guy named Kevin dhy Kevin dhy has gained over a stroke per round off the te uh in both of his starts so far this year he had three top five finishes on the corn Fair including one at that Utah Championship that we mentioned that’s a
A bombers course uh I he’s obviously not gonna win I don’t think but a guy to keep an eye out on uh a guy who could win probably won’t win because he never truly mixes but he’s started to there’s something happening with Doug gim’s game
I like Doug gim uh he’s doesn’t have the distance that I’d be looking for here but he’s G to he’s gained in every Strokes game category in two straight starts he’s obviously building up to win the players um but’s a there’s a gim flowchart is it a TPC course yes no so
We’re out all right that’s fair that’s fair we’re out on gim but yeah so I think as of this moment having talked through the odds board with the great jurs I’m looking down the board this week I think that makes the most sense if I was going to go up the board I
Think Nikolai is probably the one who intrigues me the most just because I agree I think he might do that yeah we don’t know what he’s going to be uh but we know he’s really good and we just listed off the top 12 guys on the board
And and couldn’t really believe uh the odds on them so I think that’s probably where I’ll go and it’s a nice segue to a quick conversation about really the tournament of the week one of the tournaments of the year on the DP World Tour the magical Kenya open in Kenya
Last year one of the greats of the DP World Tour Jorge campio the winner he beats uh maso kavamura uh the year before I hit the winner one of my favorite outrights of all time ashon woo I’d never heard of the guy uh before but the numbers looked good you got to hit
The fairways in Kenya this is as short of a course as you’re going to see in the professional game but of course it’s short but it doesn’t get overpowered like it’s difficult It’s Tricky the greens are insane uh you’re three putts Galore short games important I know
You’re fresh off of a winner on the DP World Tour or give me some names that you’ve got your eyes on it’s you said you might even have the card finalized uh for the D I think I got I got three names I mean hosino back do could do it
I I do I do like that but I I never really bet back toback um I like Alex Fitz Conor Sim and Shu shub charms our guy oh shs uh open champion at Royal Liverpool uh sh charms I like those guys Alex Fitz strug struggles a little bit off the tea but
He uh a really solid short game really solid putter I like the iron numbers uh Conor Sim has played he’s a top five here in his career absolutely striper of the golf ball but the uh putter is a putter is a hit or miss but I like he
That he’s played well here before and charms great iron player great Putter and has played this event in its entire existence he’s played it the last four or five years I I at least uh so he didn’t have any overwhelming course history but he’s just like a he’s a guy
Who mixes in bunches and hopefully uh we can get ahead of that mixing in bunches from shoes I agree and shoes is a guy who for whatever reason on these types of course apparently because it’s an elevation and I heard this one I think Thomas Peters
Might have said this I I don’t know why I know this he said anytime you get uh Sharma at a course at elevation he [ __ ] Tommy Peters was like scouting the field and like knows that about CHS way yeah and apparently this one is because charms can give you like a plus eight
Approach a performance out of nowhere like he could lose Strokes on approach for like three years in a row and then he’ll just show up and gain like eight he’s accured off the te he uh he was playing fine there for a little bit so yeah I’ll give Sharma look for sure he
Uh in when woo won in 2022 I think Sharma had the 36 hole lead because I had Sharma that year as well and I was like I we’re toast because he melted down uh Yan Ferguson I think is the favorite Yan makes a ton of sense uh he
Can win on the DP he’s been playing well uh he’s number one in the model we’ll see if I bet you and I haven’t committed myself to anybody on the DP yet Aaron cochrell uh he almost won here before he’s been playing good but then he
Sucked last tournament but it could be a bounceback spot for for Aaron Cox keep her out a guy who just clicking through here I think you were on him uh the other week Max Chief Keef Max Millian kefir that’s a man who hits Fairways and can make
Putts he was T20 here last year I’m just looking as we speak he was T4 at Raw Like Chief Keefe I’ll have M on Chief ke this week for sure yeah he play he had he had a good season last year too so I’m definitely down I have some room on
The card because I was I yeah I have some room I think I’m gonna lock in Fitz Simon shs and then I’ll have I’ll have a little bit to play with so here not going to do the favorites thing unless because thir Thirsty’s an auto auto two
T3 Auto thirsty will mix yeah for sure but I like thirsty when he’s like 30 40 to1 because he can win it yeah he can win at any price so no need to go down here uh I’m just sorted by accuracy on data golf for the magical Kenya open
That’s my starting point get a look at the accuracy numbers for these guys and here’s a guy who always flashes with the accuracy numbers he’s going to be the first round leader of the magical Kenya open who am I thinking of think who’s a who’s a guy who’s going to be the first-
Round leader and then he’ll be like T 27 by the end of the third round I don’t even know accuracy Smith Andy Souls Andy s oh Andy s okay Andy Souls I would I wouldn’t have gotten there I wouldn’t have gotten there but I’m down Andy
Souls can be first round leader and and have no chance of winning uh we got to talk about Freddy laqua really quick because Freddy has been striping the ball like there may not be there may not be a guy in the world who’s hitting it better off the te than Freddy laqua like
He he’s absolutely smoking it off the T he went T5 T3 T4 he finally missed the cut in qar I think it was too close to the Sun for Freddy laqua but like the dude can swing the driver uh I don’t think he can make enough putts at a
Place like this but just Freddy’s gonna Freddy’s got a future in this game I how old is he he’s he’s he’s a little old he’s 28 yeah but we know Strokes game France is is a big plus right now uh we Pavone kicked that off so watch out for Freddy
Watch he’s on an absolute Terror and I remember I bet him one time ever and that was at the uh the first South Africa event uh I forget what it it was called like after covid I forget something like that and he was like out the gates like crazy like 4 under
Through five holy [ __ ] who the [ __ ] is this guy am I gon to hit a winner and then he just like did not do that but I’ve not bet I think I just I think I just found the winner oh no he’s damn it he’s his best
Odds are on bet Rivers so I’m out but uh this is a man who once went on a hot streak on the DP World Tour he’s one of the Americans who appes his craft over in Europe John Catlin he’s an accuracy wizard from the T Johnny Katz he just
Went over to Malaysia and finished T3 and I love when Johnny Katz goes and plays some random event and he’s gone he was T6 at the Thailand open 10th at maius on the DP with Drew and then finish T3 so Johnny Katz is in form he’s
Trending yeah he was T15 here last year the blue uh bet Rivers is telling me he’s not going to win but I would be shocked if Johnny Katz doesn’t have his name uh in the mix at some point yeah I I bet him more than I probably should
Like over the last two years and he’s never paid anything off for me but I you don’t have to sell you don’t have to sell me twice on Johnny Cat so I might be down damn Max Chief ke is 50 to1 the the odds really drop off the like if
You’re not on thristy Yan or Hasa this week or Fitz it could be on anybody Alejandra yeah Alejandro Del re my boy can he do it probably not he’s 28 to1 Alejandro Del re is 28 to one he’s he’s been he’s been the last few weeks
You invented him way long ago but after his like he South Africa he finished like top 10 he playing good and then after that he’s been like sub30 but yeah this is not an Alejandra Del R Golf Course by any stretch of the imagination we’re we’ve got him penil in he was in
Mexico this week though sure Spanish like he I he would I’d probably single bullet him if he was if he was in Mexico he’d win easily so that sucks he’s not there but yeah all to get charms in that opposite field event in Colorado in the fall I think
Because I can already see the inside the elevation charm’s the elevation like come on how did you not know that yeah you gotta if Thomas Peters tells you to bet somebody you got to listen to him because Thomas Peters is most of the time paying no attention so the fact he
Like has this in his brain is something to remember is meaning something so yeah lots of good stuff on the DP the model will be up on Viner the article will be up on Viner we’ll have picks uh for you’ll have your picks out on Twitter
For the DP but yeah we got Mexico this week we’ve got Kenya lives on the horizon coming back things are trending in the right direction I I’m not gonna I never will promise a winner but I feel I feel something this week I’m going to try to
Find a winner I think it’s it’s to be found I think if like I said I like the odds on the PJ because I think you can wipe out a lot of the guys below 40 to1 uh we just need to beat big tone I’ll
Put together a big card on the PGA to obviously that will be up on voner get to golfop and.com we got the best odds see how guys are moving there see who might be trending down the board uh just for reference right now uh let me give
You wow here oh interesting I’m gonna give you the top three guys who have have odds have gone up the like they’ve are getting bet the most so far or their odds are moving the most and number one is a guy that we should probably be on Callin
Taran 200 to one I bet him a lot no he is negative chance you’re out no like literally they showed him one time on the broadcast last week in or two weeks ago in Phoenix chunked an a wedge from 80 yards he’s I I bet him on I bet him
On Phoenix I mean in Phoenix I bet him 150 to1 live top 20 because he was two under through three before the delay and then he came out and just sucked ass and no he sucks he’s a unserious golfer but he’s a bomber though yeah the approach
Numbers are pretty nice and the short gam looking good crazy that he’s getting sharp action that’s crazy yeah I mean he’s he’s 200 like he’s he’s 26 in the model this week we have seen him when it’s ball striking he like he [ __ ] at
The PGA in the US Open TPC yeah like I don’t think it’s a bad Callum like at least Callum Teran come close to winning on the PG like he mixes he T5 at Puerto Rico uh pass pal comp that makes me that makes me all right next uh another guy
Who plays good on pass palum and sneaky good golfer uh winner on the PJ tour Nicholas eia he’s the next biggest mover and then a guy who definitely does not match the course but at 300 to one he’ll he’ll mix from time to time little chz
Reevy chz Fest yeah just he will play at every Fairway if he can get hot with the long irons he was up there he played pretty good last year yeah I think I had him last year and he he I think his approach numbers were insane last year
If I’m not mistaken t-13 T he’s made the cut both starts uh he’s playing terrible he’s playing horrible golf some of the work like his l25 for like Tahoe yeah he let’s let’s actually continue to hope he plays bad so he can get a good number on
Him at Barracuda uh because that’s when you want them so yeah those are the biggest movers so far uh JB Holmes and Kevin uh Chapel also moving as well as dve T Sammy Steves and your boy what actually quick uh what’s BB Novak going to bring to the table this week BB Novak
I mean he popped out of nowhere uh he I don’t know how focused he is right now because all he does is do NFL podcasts literally like three a week follow him on Instagram he does so many NFL podcasts but uh I don’t know BSB knows
Uh he played well last week he he honestly impressed me on the weekend more than I thought he was going to I thought he was a but he hung his own so U yeah BB noes hopefully he found his game because I like him uh where did he
Also mix last year he was oh Canadian Canadian yeah the Canadian okay but yeah so good over there uh those the risers and fallers will change throughout the week we’re only a few hours into the odds being out here uh get over to v.com for the detailed model writeups from jur
And I I think we probably wrote up 60 some players already up on the site so if you just want to get there get some thoughts from us and then also get in the Discord uh people always chatting through different types of bets not just
Us coming up with them but kind of the community there working together to to try to find some some winning bets so that’s always great as well and uh quickly tonight we’ve got one of the best college basketball games of the season and I do a personal ranking of
The top 30 each week that then we blend into the VCI ranking that we have up on cbb.com I have this as number two versus number three uh Houston for me is the number two team in the country right now Iowa state is number three Yukon one
Yeah Yukon number one I’ve got I go my top five I think was Yukon uh Houston Iowa State Purdue and Arizona is my current top five like Purdue I think Purdue is fraudulent like you can’t lose to Ohio State who just fired their coach like that’s a disgraceful loss by every
Measure who uh that Line’s like nine on Houston Houston’s been absolutely unbeatable at home they just curb stomp you that is one of the best environments of college basketball uh what are you feeling on the uh game tonight yeah even Houston’s loss in ases at Iowa State was
So impressive in my opinion they were down and out from the jump they got down by like 16 early and they battled all the way back and I placed the future on them that night I was like this team like winning on the you’re not going to
Win on the road like that’s fine they lost but like their resilience and their just overall toughness and grit I was like I’ve haven’t seen a team like this all season so I like Houston I’m not sure if they’re going to cover just mainly because the total is so low it’s
Going to be a possessions are going to be at a premium you’re going to have to defensive battle I don’t really have a side I think hou wins but I could see it being within the number uh I could see this game going under the total though
I8 and a half I think that might be the total moved too a total went up to like 13 it’s like 131 oh it’s very weird because I think it was like 57 to 58 last time they played or something in the 50s it was really low scoring I uh
Odd very odd I’m still I’ll obviously tweet out from uh uh hoop and s’s Hoops uh any picks for tonight but I’m waiting I hope I’m hoping to get an eight and a half on Houston because I like Houston tonight uh they won like every game at
Home by like 20 points I think Iowa State’s really good but their Road people will be like oh Iowa state has been playing good on the road and they have but they haven’t played Kansas on the road they haven’t played Houston on the road they haven’t they lost to
Baylor they lost to BYU like they’ve beaten TCU and some of those like mid-level big 12 teams on the road they’re Obviously good but yeah I like Houston tonight so some college hoops action the biggest advantage in Sports homec Court in big college basketball atmospheres in any sport yeah like I’ve
Made them the I had a good I think I was four and two on Hoops on Saturday but one of the dumb bets I made was Texas plus 10 and a half against Houston and Texas played Texas played good but like the crowd it I Haven really watched that
Many games at Houston that crowd’s electric from the opening tip and like the way they play defense they get out they get a fast break dunk all a sudden they get three fast break dunks in a row you do not want to uh fade Houston at
Home so uh yeah but uh Jers appreciate hopping on good luck this week with the bets good luck with the Hoops we’ll be back next Monday for uh is is next week your home home event home yeah home game next week so we that’ll be a Big Show app pment
Television right so basically you’re looking to hit a winner this week because you want the back to back because next week slam dunk I’m I’m tailing you 100% so uh we’ll see you next week for Honda thanks sir great show
