How to Bet on Golf | Strategy on Profitable Types of Bets, Dead Heats | Least Profitable Golfers

Pat Mayo and Byron Lindeque discuss how to bet on golf properly, from which types of golf wagers have the bets profit rate to the difference between dead heat and no dead heat market from when and when not to take an each way wager to the most and least profitable golfer from the last year.

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ENT ofo experience experience Experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience I want to do something a little bit different today and talking about how to actually bet on golf where there’s actual profitability what are some of the common traps that you might fall into which is basically I’ll just

Describe my betting strategy and then you don’t do that and then you might actually win money so to break it all down with me because he did an excellent offseason article on this so I’ve been planning this out for a while so it’s the time to bring him in from Roto

Baller.com use code Maniac over at rotoballer.com and give some of that sweet sweet affiliate money to Byron lindu aka the model Maniac sir before we jump into golf what is it with non-americans and loving the New York Jets it makes no sense to me that I cannot tell you what our asix

With that kind of Despair and disappointment is but we we love hurt we love pain The Lure of the New York City the Big Apple the concrete jungle just you know our tears just run away that much easier when there’s no grass to be seen and I think that’s what you know us

Uh foreigners really appreciate about the New York Jets you know so it’s tough times it’s been a good decade plus of being a Jets fan for you since you’ve moved to America so I came over 2011 and I didn’t know what NFC or AFC or divisional or conference was decided as

A 19-year-old you know I made some really bad decisions as a freshman but the Jets choosing that team was one of them and I’ve yet to see a playoff game in 13 years of jets fandom and we’ve gone to back-to-back AFC championship games two years before that so that kind

Of describes my experience as a Jets fan is about as bad as it could possibly ever have been um but you know next year U that’s one of my favorite uh favorite gotoes though well the first time you were on the show it was me you you and

Alex pickle from FTM we were all nominated for golf writer of the Year by the fantasy sports writers association which was nice Alex won we lost so now we can do shows together screw Alex he’s too good too good for us yep yep as a

Jets fan I’m so used to I wasn’t even too concerned you know it was almost natural for me to experience that so I landed in Hawaii and found out that I’d lost so I told my wife you know for 5 year anniversary I was like all right I

Need like half an hour by the time we get out the airport I’ll be good to go we’ll start enjoy our vacation but congrats to Alex you know great stuff on his on his side there oh yeah Alex is the best and I basically conceded to both you guys I’ve been nominated for

That award 13 times and I’ve won once so I got my win I got my little my little glass trophy that I went on and broke by accident uh but that’s good enough for me I just want some other people to win just to be nominated is so nice but

We’re here to talk about golf betting not fantasy golf this time around so can you explain to everyone what you did during the offseason to look at profitability yeah so this article was pretty much I’ve always wondered and you always give off these takes on on your

Pods and stuff about all right take dead Heats in this situation take the better odds in this situation but I’ve always kind of Gone with the rule of thumb wasn’t quite sure exactly how the math played out so I went and grabbed every single top 20 bet that was be you could

Place last year on B MGM which plays ties in full DraftKings which does not they have Dead Heat rules and FanDuel which have which has way worse Dead Heat rules than draftking so kind of went out there dissected all that data and kind of came up with a a mathematical Tipping

Point for when to bet dead Heats when not to bet dead Heats which one was the most profitable if you go with that overall and you know the the outcome was quite interesting it was very interesting to see what numbers came out so I guess the first thing that we

Should do because I get into this problem a lot like when I put up my cheat sheet every week and I’ll be like oh I bet on this guy 120 25 to1 with five places and inevitably I get like five emails 20 Twitter replies like what

What’s an each way what’s a placement so can you tell us what Dead Heat means in the context of a top five 10 20 bet whatever it might be yes so dead heat is when there’s more than five guys to finish top five more than 20 guys to

Finish top 20 and what happens in that scenario depending on which book you go to if you get ties paid in full a t18 that consists of Five Guys that goes to like 22 23% places that will still get the full payout DraftKings they’ll take your initial stake and then they take

That amount and they divide your odds by the amount of dead Heats applicable to the situation and then FanDuel takes your entire stake and divides it by that amount like I think one of my first interactions with you on Twitter was when I had a bubble Watson top 10 at the

Rocket mortgage I think a few years ago and there was like a crazy Dead Heat situation where multiple guys finished for a top 10 tie and I lost like $20 on my $25 bet you know like and he’s still cashed so they gave you the winning

Ticket and it was you still gave them $20 so FanDuel is daylight robbery I would stay clear of them regardless of how good their odds are no matter what the odds are it’s just a dead heat rule is going to Savage your your outcome there so stick to DraftKings and B MGM

And we’ll get into the breakdown of why y well this happened at this was surprising too uh just the start of the New Year bet 365 kind of had the exact the same thing too they even have like two separate markets now one with dead heat one without Dead Heat which is

Really interesting I mean just for peace of mind it’s really nice to bet the no Dead Heat just so you’re not like well I got a guy he finished he finished inside the top 20 but he was T15 but there’s 10 guys that also finished at T15 so now I

Only get half my stake on whatever the odds it was because the 10 guys so five into 10 five 10 guys for five placements then obviously it gets cut in half of whatever you bet if it was it like you know plus 125 you’re not getting back

What you put in to the BET to begin with so that becomes problematic but it should be noted that there are different odds for ones without each one without Dead Heat and one with dead heat like the ones without Dead Heat have smaller odds than the ones with dead

Heat yes and that’s the interesting part because there’s certain tiers that the odds are applicable to betting bets that have Dead Heat applied to them and guys that pay TI in full so I’ll I’ll jump right into it yeah because if you if you are losing better in general yes if

You’re going to bet just all the bets non-stop you want to probably roll with bet MGM or ties pting full which will I did all the math and for every single bet your return on your investment for B MGM tires pting for was 15 you’d lose 15.1% at DraftKings you’d lose 16.3% on

Your investment so if you’re losing bets regularly stick with the tires paid in full when you get the opportunity to cash you want to make sure you cash if you’re a winning better on the other hand the every single bet for top 20 last year in 2023 the return on

Investment for ties paid in full was 137.5 and the ties without dead Heats or with dead Heats sorry better odds was 148.5 so there was a good like 11% difference in return there if you were a winning better so for every single bet that one that was the increase there and

Much more profitable in the long term so you hit on something very interesting like as you know and my audience knows I’m a pretty I love to bet on golf don’t get me wrong one of my favorite things to do but I am pretty non I’m serious about winning unfortunately I never win

So I can’t be that serious about it I just I I mean it’s it’s entertainment for me if it is entertainment Betty betting and you’re not the type of person who wants to grind all these edges and use multiple books and look at multiple markets do you think that like

11% difference either way something like that do you think that’s still worth it to go through it or just be like I just want to make this bet it doesn’t really matter now I know the Rob pzas of the world will tell you like this is where

You don’t pay the rake basically like if you understand these Concepts over the long term you save you save yourself 11% if you make if you put in like 20 grand worth of bets over the course of year that turns into a pretty substantial amount of money yeah well Pat there’s

There’s Financial investment and there’s emotional investment as well right so I think that’s where peace of mind is definitely worth the price and I think ties pting full for someone the average guy who wants to just bet one book or so at a time I think betting

The tires paid in full is definitely the way to go because there’s no need to stress if the guy’s going to finish inside the top 20 or not and then also stress if he does finish inside the top 20 and ties out right like you don’t

Need that double dipping of anxiety so I think if you’re just a casual guy looking to buy buying in one book get the ties paid in full eat the juice a little bit and just have that peace of mind of knowing that you’re going to be

Just fine so did you look at all into because you can parlay a lot of these together at certain books you can basically make a same game parlay for a golf tournament and take I want this guy top 40 this guy top 20 I think that would be really interesting without the

Dead Heats because then you know exactly like there’ be nothing worse than playing a three-leg I mean playing a three-leg top 20 parlay probably isn’t a great idea to begin with but it does sound like something that I would like to do and people who watch my show who

Wouldn’t want to throw together a three Banger parlay for a top 20 maybe sprinkle in a top 30 in there somewhere sounds like a fun way waste money but if you like let’s say you hit it but then there was a whole bunch of dead Heats it would just be infuriating seeing what

Your payout would become yeah you that’s even the worst part because it’s like plus 1200 turns into plus 250 and then you might as well just have better guy for top 40 to like a Jabron right so that’s definitely not the way you want to rock and roll here

And I’ll give you some numbers on what to kind of go with in the top 20 Market I pulled all the data for every single bet that there was and there were about 44 total top 20 bets last year that were shorter than minus 200 and only one of

Those bets had a dead heat reduction the the the odds better than minus one uh- 400 hit at a 75% clip between – 300 and- 400 hit at a 50% clip and then between -00 and- 300 hit at a 85% clip so those those bets hit at a

Pretty good rate and you can pretty much almost assure yourself it’s not going to be a dead heat because they’re typically the very best golfers and when playing well they’re going to kind of avoid that range of dead heat reduction in the top tier of the top 20 they’re going to be

Inside the top 10 usually that which is a really interesting that that reeks of Rory and Scotty finishing seventh in every tournament yes and a lot of those guys that put up all those total bets inside those short odds are definitely Rory Scotty Victor Xander um to be another

One there and it’s pretty interesting so I’ll jump into this part of the article which was really interesting to see I was like okay so if I’m going to kind of figure out if I’m going to B two different books at what point does beding ties pting full benefit me more

Than beding ties that have Dead Heat rules but also better odds and like I just mentioned anything shy or shorter than like negative odds minus 105 and South that’s where DK or ties that had H bets that had no ties p in full this is a little

Complicated but ties ah let me start again yeah the bets I’m pulling a full on Tambo um the ties here we go all right I’m pulling a a Tambo here the bets that had Dead Heat reduction they did much better in profitability when you paid negative odds the tires paid in

Full you definitely want to play them when there’s plus money bets because those are typically less likely to cash and your guys are going to be fitting around the top 20 Market they’re like in the t17 space because they’re just not nearly as good as the guys that are

Priced atus 205 or so wow that out there finally but listen it took a few ways to get it but I think you describe that pretty succinctly once we got to it that if there’s a minus in front of the number taking the Dead Heat rule is fine

Because those guys generally are well Beyond in the top 20 Market they’re usually inside the top 10 if they have negative odds they don’t actually Fall Into the Dead Heat trap a lot but the worst players who are at plus money you would want ties paid in full because

They find themselves in these dead heit dead heat situations a lot when you explain it like that that actually makes a lot of intuitive sense so much sense and it’s it’s like crazy to think that it took that much work to kind of figure

That out but yeah we are and it it was just an aan it was very nice to see I just see this dark green box of of profitability for increased DK stuff and then once it got into plus money you can see the exact moment it happens and it

Was just like a waila and was just beautiful so um yeah plus money TI ping full negative odds take the Dead Heat chance so that’s what you looked at for top 20 did you do a similar thing with top five top 10 top 30 top 40 or did you

Make top 20 the one that you looked at that was my initial premise of the article but I did go ahead and look into some dead Heats for eways and um TI pting full for for those bets that you’re going to be grabbing each way

Markets on so if you want to do the eways for it’s kind of the opposite which is quite interesting um overall if you want to take a bet and take the top five with ti PID in full that is profitable across all 100 all 222 winning bets last year for top fives um

There was about a 11% return on investment there for for um ties paid in full but then when it comes to the the odds for top fives that were longer than plus 1,000 so 10 to1 and longer it seemed like it really liked the eways where you could potentially

Find a much larger top five number and take the chance on that number cashing entirely without getting split and there were a few instances where like um some really short names like Zack Blair at 300 to1 and David lingor and Paul Haley at 200 to1 those odds really Juiced up

That section of the the betting splits but I think if you’re going to find a really juicy long odds number take the each way if you’re going to see a significant increase in price to take ties and paid in full I think the eway

Is the way to go at very very long odds the shorter they are you want to take the the ties paid in full so let let’s run an example on this like I bet s actually I bet Kurt Kama at Pebble Beach he’ll probably come in last place but

We’re recording this before Pebble Beach so to give people an impression here I bet them at 150 to one with an eway of five places so my five places pay 1/4 the odds what 1/4 of 150 37 and a half something like that yes boom Pat nailing

It so to look at his top five or his top five odds without top finishes including ties top five for Kurt kitama he’s 20 to one so I get an extra 17 and a half points of value but I do Leave Myself open to splitting that number if there

Is a dead heat so to me that feels like enough in terms of return on my investment that I would want to do it but I think you’re right like I see a lot of people play and I it might be a good way to keep your ecosystem going in terms of your

Bankroll like if I take like at at the same tournament if I took Scotty Sheffer 8 to one with eight places at 150 odds now like you said uh maybe that ends up being a pretty good bet because there’s no real top eight Market but you’re basically killing all of your odds to

Begin with and like if he does like you have to bet so much so now you have to cover yourself on the outright and the each way that if he loses you lose a ton of money but where you say he finishes upwards of even the top 10 top five

Whatever it is so often that maybe that ends up allowing you to tread water and not basically your Roi for the week isn’t minus 100 like it tends to be a lot or your Roi is zero like it is for me a lot of the time like hey there’s a

Lot of weeks where every scent I put in I don’t get back on golf mainly because I’m playing outrights and not playing a lot of these markets but if I were to do that with with each ways on shorter odds based players you know then I would

Return like you know instead of if I let’s just use a theoretical example of I put in $1,000 every week to bet on golf I’m not putting in $1,000 to bet on golf every single week but let’s say that I am that through all of the bets

That I have if I get wiped out I lose the Thousand that if I played in each way on a sheffler or a maxom or something like that with 1/8 the placements that instead of losing all a thousand I might lose like 600 instead of a

Thousand yes and I think that’s a great way to look at it because you’re kind of playing that conservative route and what I learned about this is I’ve typically I bet a lot of top 20s a lot of top 40s and I start my my betting threshold has

Always been plus money until I did this article and realized how profitable the guys that are in the negative odds can be so I totally have changed up my entire situation where taking on those negative odds I think the golf betting Community typically Prides themselves on

The fact that we bet these plus money odds only to to a large degree outside of matchups and it doesn’t make sense to me I think there’s a lot of value to be gained on these shorter odds on guys that are typically like Xander right now just betting him top 20 non-stop has

Been really really profitable despite him constantly not finishing inside the top fives or or so like to contend for a win right so he’s the kind of guy you really want to lean into that Avenue of of bedding for sure so basically so so basically what you’re saying is that if

I take my thousand instead of Distributing it over seven guys from 20 to1 to 150 to1 and a Top 40 on some absolute goober at like 16 to1 from the back end of the field that I’d just be better off taking my thousand betting Xander schafle at minus 175 to top 20

Every week boom exactly they they’re way more likely to happen the the chances of dead Heats are are less and from an from a eway perspective real quick I wanted to just mention this there were 23 times that there was an eway split for top fives last year in 38 events and 17

Times it was only with one guy so going back to that good kyama situation you basically going to get the 20 to1 if you’re splitting the the 37 and a half in half right so it’s going to be what 18 or so to one once the the one guy

Dead Heats that um there were six other instances where it was two and three so combined um there’s only one time there was only three guys for a tie for five so it was rather interesting to see and I think you know taking those long odds

For the long guys is the way to go um and then to get to your point about the the top 20 situation I was taking a peek at at some numbers for the guys that have been the most profitable across all the different markets going into the into the year um for

2023 and when you take a look at I wanted to bet to win $100 in every single tournament you know for every different bet if you did that for every single bet not a single guy shows up to win the most money for an outright you’re going to be investing the least

So your return on investment is going to be the most but just to win $100 repeatedly there were multiple instances where there was a top 20 I think looking at my numbers yeah we we had 20 of the top 20 guys there 12 of them were top 20

Bets seven were top 10 and then three were top fives so like you really want to take those conservative odds and really if you wanted to build a bank roll kind of lean into that market the most and kind of just pursue guys that you know are going to be finishing

Inside the top 20 quite often well the the next assignment that I need to put you on when you go and run these numbers are that if if we we’ve identified that the top end players in their top 20 odds may actually be profitable for us to bet

On despite the fact that no one wanting to bet on them because I mean listen we’re all doing content for one thing so it’s a lot more fun to say I bet siah Galla 75 to1 not I bet Xander minus 175 to come inside the top 20 although the

Minus 175 guy is the guy who actually wins money and I’m sitting here losing every bet that I put in every week that’s just not a lot of fun for the content and if people are entertainment gamblers which I would probably say 98% no matter how sharp most people think

They are they’re entertainment they’re fish gamblers I’m a fish Gambler and I do it basically every single day I’m still a fish when it comes to this I have no real process I like to bet on you know I do my research I try to come

Up with good angles on things I think that I know something and then my results show me I actually don’t know anything so it’s really a roundabout way of saying that people want to hit a 71 win they want to be able to invest $10 in a tournament and return ,000 or $25

To return 2,000 or something like that like that’s f that gives you the entertainment aspect of what you’re looking for CU you have to invest more money if you’re betting something at-200 orus 150 and if it doesn’t go like it it would feel it would feel really shitty

Especially the first time that you did it being like all right I’m shifting up my strategy no more outright betting no more top five betting I’m taking all the money that I normally bet and I’m putting it on Xander to come inside the top 20 at minus 175 what would that pay

You out if I put a thousand on that like 600 bucks You’ get 1,600 back is so yeah yeah that’d be great I bet a th000 to win 600 who wouldn’t want to win 600 bucks during a golf tournament you do that you know every second week and

You’re going to be dancing for the entire season but if you just lose it you’d probably never do it again correct that’s where bankroll management you know all that kind of stuff unit allotment we can get into all of that if we needed to but I think the the tough

Part is is is kind of accepting the long run probability of all of the stuff and it’s it’s really you just got to understand that there’s going to be variability and times can be really tough out there especially to start the 2024 year and you know um but so far the top 20

Guys have been pretty solid outside of Tory Pine so we’ll see what Cook’s going forward but um like you mentioned I do that breaking 100 article which got us nominated last year and I only have $100 to can you explain explain that article I think it’s a really cool concept

Especially if people have $100 they’re like hey I’m willing to lose $100 on every golf tournament that’s the price that it would take me to bring my kid to a movie for two hours I can spend this $100 on four days of golf I think it’s a

Really sharp way of doing CU most people aren’t betting $1,000 they’re betting 20 bucks here 50 bucks here whatever it is but the conceit of your article is that you have $100 to bet each week on golf here’s how you do it exactly and I typically split it up

To $20 for outrights about $60 or $50 for matchups 15 bucks for or 30 bucks depending on if I find good matchups there and then $5 for the farewell fiver which is a complete degenerate like three ball round one parlay that I have some fun just trying to sweat on round

One but for the most part it’s really trying to focus on how to spend your money across the betting Market because what I try to do is cover my outright cost by hitting all my placement bits using the majority of my funds in that market and taking the $20 and using that

For outrights which I’ve now even decreased even less by including top fives because I went back and realized I’m hitting a top five every other tournament in 2023 and I hit like four outrights all year so it was just so frustrating to not capitalize on a Jordan Speed water ball at the valbar

And not getting anything in return so betting top fives I’ve kind of gone to that market to cover my outright cost entirely so now I’m no longer just losing a little bit less because of my top five I’m actually making money by top fiving and then the rest of my card

Can take care of business in that department so when I hit an outright it’s not nearly going to be as much but it’s still going to be a solid return and and every more more so often the weeks where I kind of return some money like you mentioned earlier and it’s

Funny because when it comes to golf betting I’ve done this strategy what you’re talking about pro rated up or down depending on what it is and almost everything else that I’ve done in terms of the betting world like I just where hitting a big winner in golf is so much

Fun that’s really the thrill for me in doing it that I don’t really feel like it’s you know it’s spent money the moment the bet is made that it’s not too concerning for me if I end up losing it um I never have gotten over my skis in

Term of betting too much money that it’s you know like I said an entertainment cost but like when it came to re-evaluating how I played DraftKings golf I went down back down to the like I wanted to be like hey should I play 150 lineups should I play 50 lineups should

I play 75 lineups I went back and just played the 50 Cent contest and worked on what if I try this what if I try this so my investment was 7 $5 every week in golf instead of having to you know Max it out at like 7 or 750 or $1,000 like

Take my lumps until I develop a better strategy and then I can build it back out from there NFL betting this year I did really well with NFL betting mainly because I focused on props and yeah I’d have fun playing almost like you said like the the $5 the you know the $50

Degenerate everything together prop same game parlay but I just bet big on three or four props every single week that the numbers told me were going to be profitable over time some weeks you go 1 and three some weeks you go 4-0 most weeks you go 3 and one and boom yeah

You’re just having a very highly profitable year it’s just funny that because there are no big bets in some of those other sports that I never feel the need to change it up and try to take some sort of long shot there is something about the Allure of golf that

Just draws everyone to the outright though right yeah I mean like Detroit or let’s say who who just made a crazy run to kind of get into the playoffs like someone like to get six yeah the bucks at like what 60 to1 to win the Super

Bowl like we we doing that stuff every week on well last year at least you know not this year but um 60 to1 in the golf Market’s nothing you know that’s just like Chum change to us and we we hit the 150 to ones and things but a 60 to1 in

NFL is just mind-blowing to people it’s kind of insane to think about so if you put that into perspective like why are we going after these crazy situations but at the same time like you said nobody’s going to do a podcast and that’s what I’m really strling with is

I’m so good at betting the placements and matchups that I’m trying to Hype that up but no one cares you know everyone wants the winner and that’s that’s all that it is at the end of the day so it’s it’s tough but off you go

You know you kind of make your make your bed where you can well yeah I I may I mean by the time this comes out one of the episodes will have already aired I’m trying out some new things during the golf season that I’m taking the best bet

Show that I did with Cam and Rob that people seem to enjoy so much during NFL season I’m parsing it over to PGA SE Seas for Wednesdays that we have PGA Best Bets that aren’t outright winners or anything it will mainly focus on head-to-head matchups placements and

Things like that and you sir are invited to come on and be one of the panelists on that we’re going to switch up with different people every single week like the first one we did had uh degenerate 75 and cam on you got to have cam on the

First one and we’ll just have like a rotating cast of people to come on and mix it up and talk about bets that way because you know I I listen it was fun the first few year I mean it’s always fun when we’re talking about outright winners but the first few years that

Jeff and I did this like we hit like 11 outright winners it was great every year yeah yeah and the the thing is the golf books have got so much sharper so we like just struggling to find good value and you know if you’re trying to get

Your seven extra turn you got so many less guys on your card so you got to find ways to make your buck somewhere else and you guys have figured that out so it’s it’s all good and yeah that’ll be so fun to come on the show for that

Pat and one of the favorite things about matchups I just want to put that out there real quick is it’s the only book or the only bet that the book doesn’t have like an Ultimate Edge on you like a top 20 a top 10 an outride whatever if your guy WDS

The book gets that money but in a matchup if your opponent WDS you get that money which I just love and you know it’s like you versus the other guy and that’s the way to go and it’s to me one of my favorite bets ever so you

Always put out the post round uh data like you I mean you’re the model Maniac at the model Maniac on X or Twitter whatever it is that you use and again code Maniac Roto baller for all Byron stuff but you always put that out for assessing three balls or head-to-head

Matchups uh after the round I mean this is all the all information in the live stats feed that you can find at fantasy national.com fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself 20% off that’s like one of the big keys of it is that hey you can just grab this data right away and

You can make your own adjustments to it so obviously you’re running that data through something uh that you have as your model but if people just want to like I said play a 100 bucks and you have like you know you have 25 bucks to bet would you ever recommend betting a

Full would you if you had the hundred bucks let’s say $20 a bet on each of these matchup bets would you bet them pre-tournament would you bet them round one three ball or would you wait for round one to happen and utilize that data and then start picking off three

Balls that’s a really good question because I think what you got to do is take that 20 bucks and turn it into $5 and bet all of them and see where you have the most success because it’s different for everybody I’m not the best at finding value in just a round by

Round situation I’m much better at a tournament long I like the long run probability of my guys sticking to their stats over four rounds there’s also a cut involved so you can find guys that don’t make Cuts as often so you can just cash that bet if your guy might not be

The necessarily like the high-end player but he makes a lot more Cuts than someone that doesn’t you can cash that beted on a Friday whereas round one stuff you know it’s the volatility in that round by round stuff just doesn’t quite sit with me that well so I’ve

Never really had that good of an outcome in the round by round stuff so just it’s each to their own you got to figure out what you’re the best at and go from there but matchups in general are the way to go all right I like that anything

Else I mean you wanted to ask me about profitable golfers do you want to give me the quiz now H sure um I had a few names here that were you kind of take a look at these names and you think you know if I just bet this guy non-stop for

A top 10 he’s going to be cashing for for the whole year right so the guy that lost the most amount of money if you bet him for top 10 last year Pat who would that be in your opinion trying to win $100 every time

You make a b yeah so so the guys with the steeper odds would obviously be a bigger loss if you didn’t get it correct I mean I bet Kum morawa basically every week and he didn’t do [ __ ] so is it him or Justin Thomas Justin Thomas is definitely on

The list he was one of he’s the alltime loser across the board outrides top fives top 10 top 20s lost1 what really yeah 1,100 and $99 Justin Thomas L if you tried to bet him top 10 top 20 last year so that was a bad Market to chase

Him on but the guy I’m talking about for top 10 he a Dei matami lost $587 if you try to win $100 per bet betting a Dei for top 10 and that’s the most out of anyone that I can see so crazy situation and guess what he had

Like four three putts in five holes to finish t13 this week again so stay clear of a decky top 10 until further notice interesting that that’s my mind just and he had a really bad ear obviously I mean you just take a look at his outright odds to win tournaments now

They’re like 60 to one and just it doesn’t quite process the same way but I mean that’s probably probably the best way if you were to make like a logical assumption on who the most profitable versus non-profitable in a lot of these markets would be would be hey what were

Their odds at this tournament last year and are they higher or lower than what they are right now yes and are they playing better or worse than they are right now based off of how they played at the tournament last year kind of crazy stuff so that’s something I’ve

Definitely looked at and incorporated into my betting since this article it’s just is a guy worth is it worth betting a guy like for turl Hatton for instance you want to bet him to finish in rip geez uh what a terrible name to bring up

But um when he was on the PGA tour he he was a top 10 Beast you know like you’d be making a lot more money if you spend your money on top 10 versus top 20s for Turles so um and then obviously the first time I do that at at at the capala

Tournament for the century he goes and finishes T12 or something so tough scenes um out at the Sony there but he’s going to have fun on live with John now so good good for turle yeah he’s getting that automatic paycheck how couldn’t you have some fun over on the live tour have

You dug into live markets at all no yeah I mean there’s no data Pat like how how are we supposed to unless you watch it it on what you know I don’t have a CW subscription I don’t have whatever I need but I think it’s more of an itest

Situation and these guys got top end talents that are are getting beat by Jeff OG and people like that you know like he’s not even on the tour but you know like what are we doing with with Martin kimer beating Brooks coper in any sort of event you know that just never

Happens on the PJ T I’m I’ve got no interest in that situation and um we’ll stick to where guys really care about how they play week in week out for the most part you PGA would they be no I mean I I told I told feberg on one of

The recent shows that we did just I might just bet like Bryson every week and have fun with it that way because I want to root for Brayson yeah I think that’s the way to go you find your favorite guy and just see where just go with the Vibes you

Know like if he’s got a nice nice area going back home they should play better there b cam Smith in Australia every time so I don’t know right I bet cam Smith in Australia every single time unless he’s not playing against live guys and he comes in dead last

He’s also fallen off and he looks a little chunky too I’m my my man crush is not doing the best things for me out there on the LI T he needs to come back to the PJ so Mrs Mania can have a bit more problems on on my side there so um

Yeah we’ll see I don’t know he’s wearing the shades now as well and who who puts their Shades in their back pocket like you got to put them on the Hat the back of the hat or wear them the back pocket Shades is just not a way to go I’m I’m

Not a fan of that at all you need to figure that out maybe they have so much money that they don’t care about the market but just the the lack of Liv traction that has happened so far and maybe I mean unless live blew up over

The week that in between us filming this and me airing this uh maybe I’ll look like a complete [ __ ] when I’m talking about this but the fact that they haven’t catered to us the people who are the most engaged be it through daily fantasy or betting with something as simple as like

A template a boilerplate template for stats that we can track every round but it’s like they have geared this entire tour for 80-year-olds to watch which is not a crazy thing because it’s a golf audience yet they only exist in places where 80y olds would never find them yep they’ve they’ve cornered the

Market that they’ve had and it’s it’s the tiniest corner on the planet we not even it hasn’t been even found yet but um just thinking about all the guys that they have it’s like Phil Mickelson and Martin kimer Louis and all those guys those like oh you know top 10 green

Regulation rates let’s bet the guy I feel like that’s the way they want to rock and roll we can’t even bet that stuff here in Iowa so I don’t even they don’t like us to bet stuff in Iowa yeah for for the the Saudi stuff so it just doesn’t make sense whatsoever and

Throwing that amount of money around surely just a few million dollars is lying around to get some pay some people to be on a golf course and shooting some lasers like how is that not even a thing yet it doesn’t make any sense to me well

The other thing as well that I talked about with both Tim and Jeff is that like I don’t even know when these tournaments are happening like that’s a problem if I don’t know when they’re happening there’s a good chance 99.9% of people don’t know when they’re

Happening like I want to go check the odds to bet on it today uh and it’s a Monday of a tournament so like the the berin open has odds posted already Pebble Beach has odds posted already the senior tour the LPGA Tour the corn faery tour Panama Championship that has live

Odds going on no live odds to be found yeah they don’t it’s it makes no sense the the product itself is unsustainable and that’s what just is the mind-blowing thing about this is there’s nothing about it sustainable the moment they just pull the plug on the funding it’s done it’s it’s not self-

Sustaining there’s no returning Revenue generating from these people and they just keep adding to their expense role and that’s the craziest part too so we’ll have to see what happens but sheesh I hope we get a a merger year soon because it’s really starting to feel rough betting on these guys that

Are um I mean we had nobody show up this week at the Tory so that’ll be two weeks from now but um yeah tough scene means we need to we need to get like a nice collaborative golf situation again because I I miss all the best players in

The world playing together see I don’t I don’t like I’ve really enjoyed golf through the first few weeks of January just because I found that every finish has been super exciting like that’s all I mean it sucks that I’m not winning bets and no one is winning bets I would

Prefer to have like hey we were all on Matthew pavon to win that would have been great at Big odds uh but obviously we weren’t there was like three people in the world who were on matchu pavon and I was not one of them so but to

Watch it like just because I was losing bets doesn’t mean that I wasn’t any less engaged like I wanted to see who was going to win it was actually exciting TV for me to watch and like that’s a that that is a compelling product to me no

Matter what and yeah I I don’t know if that’s sustainable if none of the big names ever get into it but building new stars creating a lot of variability at the top of tournaments I do think it’s exciting TV absolutely and the fact like no one

Has seen Jake knp swing a golf club and then you see him swing it like molasses and it’s going 190 miles hour ball speed it’s crazy to see these guys coming on to tour from the corn fery and and the DP where that leaderboard was just completely like a

Complete Rider cup Battle Royale you know we had all those DP World Tour guys at the top foreigners and and jets fans alike and then we had a bunch of Americans that were kind of chasing them down so it it does add that International feel now that we’ve lost

The top you know top talents elsewhere but it it really does let the the Riff Raff at times just rise to the top and and make it for like Nick Dunlap holy cow like talk about an Ascension to stard him out of nowhere and he’s been playing well in college but we wouldn’t

Have expected that on the PJ tour but yet yeah we are he’s playing in a designated event here with Rory maroy and Scotty sheffler in his sophomore youf College which he’s no longer even doing so fun times yeah I can’t wait for my my my guy Adrien d d from Belgium to

End up breaking on to the scene in a big way on the PJ tour who’s your guy from South Africa that huge dude who bombs it Alistar Poltergeist alri poit yeah 19 years old he used to play used to play rugby as a prop and decided that wasn’t

For him and decided to play golf and now he’s winning winning tournaments everywhere and um unbelievable you know we’ve got we need some right young talents from South Africa because Bey just ain’t moving the needle for me you know the the plotting along isn’t what I’m looking for I need some bombers and

We’ve got some serious serious thyro breads coming through the ranks here so alri should take care of business for us here when he gets into his 20s and out of the Corn faery so I think he just won right yeah like Well I this was something that I briefly talked about

That I mean I love the DP World Tour because I think it’s very Scenic I love the courses and there’s just certain guys that I like to get behind and it’s fun to follow their careers of like hey they’re this I mean matu pavon was a

Really good one [ __ ] who just went to live is a really good one like guys that you know I’ve gotten behind over the years betting over there watching them at whatever random event that happens I mean help having kids helped that I was up at 6:00 am on a Sunday morning be

Like wow Euro golf song Let Jesus this course in Switzerland looks really nice let’s watch this for three hours and then you get to know a lot of these guys and it’s fun to watch them you know play their way onto the PGA Tour and get into

Majors and you can root for them that way but in terms of actual skill level at this point the DP World Tour has been pretty deluded both from Liv and a lot of the guys just making the jump to the PGA Tour would you say that the corn

Faery tour has more Talent than the DP World Tour now o that’s a great question and I think I think it it’s I’ll give you a rer cup answer I think if the corn fairy tour players went to Europe they would get waxed but if the Europeans

Came and played on the corn fery tour the Yanks would take care of them over here because I think you require a different skill set in America versus on the DP World Tour those scen courses have trees and mountains in the way whereas you take a look at at the

Driving distance on the corn fairy tour the guys are like just bombing it out there 330 yards up up you know so it’s not really that challenging over I don’t think um so it’s different skill sets and I’m going to kind of crop out on that answer I think depending where they

Play but in general I think American talent just is always going to be better than the rest of the world well it’s very interesting like from your perspective cuz you came over to America to play golf like what is it like in South Africa like if you are up and

Coming versus the facilities and opportunity that you would have in the states like why why come to America and not stay well most of the people in South Africa are leaving because it’s not you can get robbed on a golf course in South Africa in America that’s not necessarily

Going to happen the facilities are amazing we’ve got great weather all the time the coaching you know the coaching down there is fantastic we’ve got so much like history and and talent in the golfing industry and the weather’s perfect you can golf in South Africa pretty much all year around there like 5

Days a year that it’s cold and the thing is it’s just the the lucrativeness of dollars the the country itself is in shambles you never know if you’re going to go grab a sandwich at halfway and your clubs are are stolen you know like if you leave them outside

So it’s a it’s a bit of a situation and I think that’s the main Allure to get over here and obviously the sunshine T not nearly as um profitable as is playing on the PGA T but I think the talent is pretty solid across the board

It’s just tricky for them to get across you because they got to qualify through corn Ferry and and things like that but the good the good guys are good enough to get through that so looking forward to our young crop of guys coming through well it’s going to be exciting I I think

That this is where the DP World Tour can really step in just offer more memberships to players from like countries from all over the world that if it is that hard to get to the states then hey then you come play on the DP World Tour or play on the Challenger

Tour will make it easy for you and if you do win we’ll promote you right away like that would be a very interesting way to get up through it I did see the safari tour where we used to bet the kabi man at like 2, 2500 to1 seems like

They stole all the money of the players and they didn’t pay anyone yeah that’s that’s also you know the Safari tour they took it and and ran but um there’s always odds there’s always odds out there for anybody that wants to get get going but um RP to that

T as well it’s kind of crazy how the world works huh it’s it’s kind of nuts ESP the golf world too because you get to try to like buy Prestige and put on like classy events and it’s all just a bait and switch job where they’re just

Pocketing the money and taking off yeah no no good the great Abaco classic out in Bahamas won’t ever do that so stick to the corn fairy toour I think we’re we’re in good shape over there I I it’s funny that like the money hasn’t trickled down to and I mean they

Probably need to save every scent that they have on the PGA tour to try to compete with Liv to pay these purses that they can’t afford anyway that obviously there’s not going to be a trickle down effect to the corn fairy tour in terms of purses but that must be

You must lose so much money if you’re not good playing on the corn fairy tour because I’ve met a few guys to play on the Canadian tour and like outside of two guys basically every single Year everyone else just loses a ton of money

Yeah I think a great follow is a case of golf or a case of the golf a Monday Q guy he he does such a great job of putting out these Financial situations that these guys are in their golf clubs get stolen at random golf courses they they winning $1,700 but their expenses

For the week were 3500 and and now their golf clubs are stolen so there’s like go fundies for like every 10th player on the corn fery tour and it’s fascinating that that’s the Grassroots of the PJ tour and yet we still go funding people from private entities to try and get

These guys on the T I’d imagine that at some point we can you know disperse a bit of the funding to them and really help those boys get onto the PJ without Financial bankruptcy looming you know I mean to have played golf under any circumstance is difficult never mind

Having to like think about waiting tables after you’re around and at the Abaco you know so um they need to get that figured out for sure yeah how I mean when you were playing like how much training did you because you you look like a big guy that were how far how far

Were you able to put it out well right now I’ve hit it further than I’ve ever hit it and I’m about 70 lbs heavier than I was when I came to America so God bless the large Cokes and and baconators um and long Winters which

Is also a problem but um I was golfing often you know like after every every day at school if I wasn’t playing tennis or or Cricket or something I’d be out at the golf course and and then your parents would just drop you off on a

Saturday you play 36 holes go play 36 holes on a Sunday do all that stuff and just kind of grinding grinding grinding away and and I’ve just I’ve always been a good driver of the ball I’ve never been a good iron player and that’s the problem is I could

Scramble my face and make tons of pars but could never go low I’ve never really shot super super low scores and I wish I knew the stats I knew now because I would just be hitting irons all godamn day because that’s where it’s made and everyone tells you growing up no make

Sure you’re short game sharp because you never want to make Bogies but at the end of the day you want to have a four-footer for birdie every now and then to make life easy on you which I just was not doing so um hitting at Millions miles now but uh yeah still

Hitting the irons all over the place it’s fun because you you do hear that I mean a lot of that just came with the CL anything that rhymes people kind of like you know DY for show putt for dough and it turns out that was like the exact

Opposite of how money was actually distributed on tour for 25 years that the best drivers were the ones who were getting paid all of the money and like the shittiest Putters still won all the money because they were so good at everything else me Scotty shefford still

Makes like 40 million bucks a year in winnings guy can’t putt to save his life but I do think when you’re someone like me who like vacillates between say like an eight or a 14 handicapp depending on how much that I play that having a

Really good short game for me saves me a ton of Strokes mainly because my short game can cost me an awful lot of strokes but when you get to the level that you were at where you do need to go low that it’s it’s almost like we we talk about

With some of these tournaments where yeah it’s great that your guy’s great at chipping that’s fantastic I would prefer he just be putting for birdie that’s how you’re going to win yeah I was watching the PJ Tour live and they were going about you know if I

Could pick one stat it would be Brian Harman being the number one Scrambler on the PGA tour and I just wanted to rip my hair out I was like you guys have no idea what are you doing in the booth you don’t even know how stats are relevant

To like tour earnings being the number one Scrambler means you’re missing so many freaking greens get it together hit the birdie putts from 5 feet and L rock and roll like I don’t understand at all but yes I guess there is relevance to being the worse you are the more

Important missing a A four-footer can be um whereas you know on a on a better scratch level I guess for Footers unless you luk list and and Company um L viig on a on a PO surface or a Dei on poer um you kind of make those on regularity

Well it’s a compounding thing when you’re not that good like if you have like if you’re like on the apron or something and then you pull out a you know a 58 and you try to get it close like you’re not playing a ton of spin like you’re just not great at those

Shots and when you’re not good like holding a 60° wedge in your hand for a chip can be like super uncomfortable so then even though you’re let’s say 20 yards away from the hole with this chip with all the green to work with you just

[ __ ] it up so badly you’re now 20 ft away in a spot that you don’t want to be cuz the chip was so bad and you’re like live to three putt from there too so if you could just chip it to four feet and make the putt you know you’d save

Yourself at least two strokes twice a round if you were a bad golfer where that just isn’t even in play if you’re good all right so I’ll give you some let’s do a little bit of coaching here towards the end of the show how I chip

Is I take a seven n and if you’re two yards away from the green you want to hit your your 79 two yards and then it would roll out additional seven of that seven times so it’ll roll out 14 if you take the eight L you want to hit a two

Yards it will roll out 12 and ultimately you want your lob wedge to go half the distance you want your Sand Wedge to go 2third of the distance after it bounces SO pitching wedge is a quarter a 99’s one5 and go that way you want to just go

To the putting green and hit every club that you have from lob W to 79 two yards onto the green and see how far it rolls out so that way when you are just off the green and need a chip instead of wanding how hard to hit a 58 all you

Have to do is find the right club and hit it two yards just on the green and it should roll out to a general area around the hall you just shaved like seven strokes off my game boom done but I’m still GNA try to hit a flop shop

With my sister way more fun to try put some zip on it yes well that’s also a thing like when you’re when you know that you’re not great it’s almost like betting outright winners in golf it’s like it’s fun to try to hit this flop shot from the Terrible location that

Like I top the ball and it goes an inch in front of me I still the one time that it works it’s like aiming between the trees from the trees instead of just easily playing it back out to the Fairway the one time it works makes up

For the 50 times that the ball might hit a tree and Ricochet by your head absolutely I I have my enjoyment factor in golf has just been exponential since getting out of college because I’ll take those shots on now you know you take a take a few swigs of Keystone

And off you go and and every now and then they pay off and you look like a complete OG in front of your buddies and they go and you know tell everyone about it and it’s just life is good you can tell the misses and think about it

Forever but no one cares about hitting a stock 79 to pin High 12 feet on a on a tough par par four you know like we want to the hero shots are where it’s at and I totally agree Byron lindu atth model Maniac on Twitter Roto baller.com Cod

Maniac to get all of your work what can people expect from you every single week every single week so I’ve actually started doing a late night Sunday research show so I just got done with that at one o’clock this morning three and a half hours I deep dive pretty much

All the top guys in the model all the guys I think are going to win this week and I time stamp it so you can like kind of go and find each take I have for each different golfer then on Mondays I do a stat buffet that kind of takes every top

20 of my model pops it out there it shows you which guys are ranked inside which thing for all these million different stats um on Tuesdays I do the breaking 100 article and my show um on back nine bits and then me and Spencer will be doing a root balla PGA show

Every night at 9:30 for root balla on Mondays and then Wednesdays we do a little bit of value plays here and there so there’s an article every day there’s usually a podcast every day or so before the tournament and then there’s tons and tons of Showdown stuff as the week

Unfolds that’s kind of my thing I love I love Showdown versus weekl long stuff and I feel like I’ve got a really good model for that that you can get over there at ro.com and use it to your advantage well at the time that we record this Pat Mayo won a showdown gpp

This week for round one uh using the tools at Fantasy national.com so fantasy national.com Mayo make it easy on yourself and generate those lineups although I am out of the showdown game now because I only play Showdown three times a year the AMX Tory Pines and

Pebble Beach and that’s it I think those are the only times because those I those are the only times that I feel like I have an advantage in draftking Showdown because I’m not running the same numbers that you’re doing a lot of the time that

I just it’s not even that I have an advantage is that people play it so stupidly at those weeks like why you would ever consider in the first two rounds at Tory Pines why you would ever consider playing anyone at the South courses Beyond me yep here I was a 25% kinari cow

Because he’s got one of the best course’s on the south and goes and misses the cut he didn’t get in the piscu so one of those guys and you can be like me and just be like no I’m gonna play Johnny Vegas shot plus six at the

South course I am playing him at the North Course what does he do seven under like it’s just an e y you in order to win you have to maximize your lineups so if you just give someone the super easy course it’s it’s it was like at the AMX

Just like as much as and Tambo talked me out of like trying to get tricky and playing good guys at the stadium course it would have worked if you had just landed on Justin Thomas and no one else in the third round if you were playing

It that way or you could just play dudes at Lin who all shot like 64 exactly the needle in the Hast stack on the tough courses is it’s a it’s a journey I’m not willing to go on anymore it’s enough we’ve had enough of those quests so I’m with you stick to the

Simple stuff don’t be don’t be overthinking things yeah and it’s funny that like kind of breaking it back down to certain things like I try to over complicate golf betting for myself so much that I think it’s actively made me worse at golf betting where back in the

Day I used to be like all right here’s what my feel is I’ll go research some stuff and boom I’m on my way here’s my my four convictions of the week they might win they might lose but I used to hit at a higher clip back then and I try

To think of like what I do for something as rudimentary as Showdown and be like oh yeah just don’t play people at that course play people at that course that works and it does work like just the simplest stuff sometimes is the best way to do it and I think that hearkens back

To your point about betting good players at top 20 like the they’re actually undervalued despite the fact that you look at it and no one wants to bet these odds exactly and what I’ve also been doing is for weekl long stuff if I find the chalki guy I had a bookie reach out

To me gave me his free credit so I’ve just been betting the chalki dude for top 20 and just hammering him every week and it’s been paying off just fine so it’s like don’t overthink it let the market adjust the odds for you and and

Just go with the chest guy in DFS so you’ve won a ton of money on Eric Cole over the past six months Eric Cole Ander shle you know all those guys just the chalk donkey coming through baby so it’s been fun all right well thank you all

For watching hope you learned a little bit about golf betting and how Golf Works in South Africa smash a like to the channel sub to Mayo media Network and turn on those Auto downloads for Spotify podcast and apple podcast leave us a festar rating while you’re over

There as well I’m Pat Mayo thank you for watching I’ll see you next time experience experience