Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Genesis Invitational on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Genesis Invitational Best Bets
06:18 – Course Preview
12:50 – Outright Bets
33:08 – bet365 Promo
33:50 – Tiger Woods
37:45 – Other Picks
47:08 – Rapid Fire Picks
58:20 – More Golf
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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #BlueWireVideo
And welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 alongside Spencer agar I’m Roberto aruo thanks for joining us today as we break down our Genesis Invitational Tournament preview here in 2024 we are at Riviera Country Club the Riviera Country Club where tournament
Host Tiger Woods is not only hosting but he’s in the field making his 20124 debut we’ll break down how we feel about Tiger Woods a little bit later in the show but first you know how we do it we’re gonna get straight to our best bet Spencer
What’s your best bet this week I’m gonna go with Russell Henley minus 120 over Denny McCarthy as my best bet this week all right so going with Denny McCarthy I’m or going B Henley over Denny McCarthy I’m going to go with Taylor Moore for a top 20 at plus 240 at
Our sponsor bet 365 that includes ties but before we get into my top 20 tell me about your match up bet Spencer so so for me and this is the same answer that I’ve given quite a few times when we’ve gotten these you know we were talking
About this off air even like while it’s technically not a no cut event when you have 70 players in the top 50 and ties make the cut and if you’re within 10 shots of the lead you also get into the weekend there like to me this is essentially a nocut tournament so I’m
Trying to shoot for upside in these spots more so than some of the safety marks and when you look at a guy like Denny McCarthy I’m also much lower than the public seems to be in the importance of around the green it doesn’t mean that around the green does not matter here I
Just tend to think that it’s a little bit easier than the public does to get up and down from a lot of these spots I I think there’s a reason why golfers like Colin morawa Victor hin names like that have found success at this course and I think it really just stems from
The ability to where if you can hit a lot of Greens in regulation and you just have some ability like in Holland’s case he can at least produce some Strokes gained out of the bunkers like he he’s inside the top 25 of my model there I think with the Deep bunkering that’s a
Very important quality but McCarthy had so many negative traits inside of my sheet when trying to shoot for upside inside the bottom five for me an expected weighted TAA green production he does get that upside that comes to fruition a little bit when you look at some of the scrambling and short game
Metrics but for a bet that I assume is going to go for four days assuming that one of these two guys isn’t one of those you know handful of 5 10 15 players that don’t end up making it to the weekend I just think Henley possesses a higher
Ceiling here so I’m going to bet on that but it’s kind of a similar answer that I’ve given during most of these uh tournaments that have a similar structure these are not my favorite head-to-head betting cards at the end of the day just because I I would rather
This be 156 man field then I could find one golfer that I’m trying to oppose for this best bet where well I do want to take on McCarthy this isn’t necessarily the most ideal spot and and the other problem that we run into Roberto also is
I don’t want to give steale numbers on this show the bet that I originally wanted to give and we can talk about this later Adam Scott over sunj M that moves 60 points like practically overnight before we could film this show so you know unfortunately sometimes it’s
Just the second best play ends up being the best Play When a number moves just so everything is is betable for all the listeners out there but uh Russell Henley minus 120 over Denny McCarthy will be the play for me all right we’ll come back to that play later because I
Actually made a bet on that one too uh so I want to hear what number you got and why you bet bet it but uh we know Adam Scott’s one of the big movers this week and for good reason but we’ll get into that in a little bit my best bet
I’m going to go with Taylor Moore top 20 plus 240 where ties are paid in full if you want to be a little bit more daring you don’t want to get ties paid in full you can get a little bit better number as well but Taylor Moore is somebody
Whom I’m pretty bullish on and he tends to be a little bit streaky with his irons he isn’t an elite ball Striker but he is solid he’s is above average on approach he hits the ball really far off the T and this week distance a little bit more important than accuracy but you
Got to absolutely place your pick your spots around Rivier you got to know where you can can’t miss but he’s stronger a little bit more on those mid irons and with the wedges and this is one of those tournaments where that’s going to be rewarded and he is an elite
Putter and he’s played here just two times third year on the PGA tour for Taylor Moore and he’s gained over S10 of a stroke per round so it’s almost three Strokes per tournament at Rivier that he’s gained putting and whereas this is one of the toughest set of greens to
Putt on on the VJ tour if he can have a big time putting week which I’m not saying he’s going to do it again this week but I’m saying I like the chances of The Upside for him I think that combination with his strong driver The Good the really uh decent numbers on
Approach play from 150 to 200 yards I think he’s got some upside this week so not only am I going to bet him for top 20 at plus 240 but I’ve got some other money on him in some other upside markets as well he had a really strong
Week last week at the Phoenix Open where he gained over a stroke per round on approach but he had one of his worst putting rounds in a while uh this is going to be a very different putting surface with this being true POA instead of uh an overseed surface so I think
That he can bounce back I’m not worried about him having a couple poor putting weeks in a row I don’t think that’s very likely and he’s also pretty decent around the green too I do think that around the green play is important this is I think the only tournament on the
PGA tour where you have the Ki Ruff uh where the fairways and the rusts are both kakuya which is great in the Fairway it’s it props up the ball perfectly but if you’re in the rough people have just grabbed it like velcro and so you’re really going to need to
Ball strike your way around this week and I think that Taylor Moore has a couple different Avenues where he can do a Victor havin walking Neiman type approach where he hits these lasers out there and then is on the green he doesn’t have to deal with the kakoa ru
But but he can also get up and down and knock in some putts from who knows where kind of like we saw Nick Taylor do last week uh all over the place so I like that he has a couple different Avenues to winning and or a couple different
Avenues to success and so that’s why I’m on Taylor Moore this week Spencer let’s get into our course preview unless you have some strong thoughts on Taylor Moore how are you modeling Riviera Country Club this week yeah I mean you kind of said it best at the beginning I
Mean this is a historic venue that in my opinion is going to finally separate players we have seen the first six events of the Year produce 100 the one plus winner I I think you could make an argument that a name like Windam Clark was just a mispriced commodity maybe
More so than the rest of them my model had him 50 to1 it’s an easy answer to give when that’s the only one of the six that I actually ended up hitting uh but with all of that being said there’s the ability here to where this is not one of
Those birdie fests to where players are going to be able to produce a score and go in that direction of a field that technically gets watered down in a lot of these weeks like 18 of the top 20 players in the world rankings that are
Still here on the PGA tour are going to be at this event so I I do think the cream is going to rise to the top here I think you get a venue that while it plays slightly over 7,300 yards it’s a par 71 that yardage on the scorecard
Doesn’t necessarily indicate how long it truly is because most of the distance is hidden with the par five first and the drivable par 410th both of those play substantially shorter than your average return on tour we do see that yardage get made up quickly whether you look at
You know holes 2 12 uh 15 and 18 those are four holes that will present some of the more challenging par for locations on tour when you dive into their 26% to 32% bogey or Worse rates I think part of that reason stems from that overabundance of shots that we see from
150 plus yards nearly 73% of all second shots will occur from that range I would say the other part of that answer which produces the difficulty is that and you just talked about this a second ago players can struggle out of this kakuya grass and this kakuya rough um I am
Curious to see if some of the rain in the location potentially softens the course marginally I do think that helps ever so slightly to try to hold these greens but you know still at the end of the day you get a speedier POA surface this is true POA as you talked about so
You’re going to get that real bump y grainy sort of a look um that’s going to result in a lower G percentage you normally get about an 8% lower rate here than a standard track and then I think the last thing to note on top of
Everything else is just I tend to think and and I said this at the beginning that Strokes SC around the green won’t be quite as challenging it doesn’t mean that you’re not going to get those opportunities where you’re going to have to produce because you are hitting or an
Average player is at least hitting 8% fewer Greens in regulation but uh to me that like mix of undulation can you put from off the surface the deep bunkering can you save a score from out of a bunker those are the specific asss that I’m really trying to find and when I
Waited in that fashion it gave me a much different model and maybe this is more of a DFS answer than anything else but uh it gave me a much different model than I think a lot of people got just because I if everybody’s talking about an overweighing Strokes gain around the
Green and well I have it in my model I don’t have it necessarily to the extent of most people and I think the second factor to that is what you talked about of you have to pick your spots here distance is more important than accuracy I don’t want to get those words mixed
Around but I don’t think this is one of those things where it’s some bomb and gouge course where I’m trying to find the players who can hit the ball the furthest in advance like you’re going to need to miss in the right spots you’re going to need to set up the locations I
Ran it as a 6040 split of distance over accuracy I did merge in a little bit of how a player has gained in Strokes gain off the te at difficult scoring courses and and coures that technically have difficult to hit Fairways um but to me that’s more of like the ideal way to
Build this than saying let’s hit the ball as far as we can and then try to produce the score from there I don’t think that’s the optimal route to find success here I agree with everything he said uh if I had anything to add to it it’s a
George Thomas course so we saw him last year at Lac so one thing that he likes to do start you off very nicely with an easy par five and this might be the easiest part five on the entire PGA Tour it’s like a driver pitching wedge for
These guys sometimes or often times um you can get even less and the only thing that makes it tough is that there’s a little cart path in the way where you hit it through the Fairway so it makes it a little bit awkward sometimes anyways he starts you off with a tough
Part part five and then he greets you right after that with the toughest hole in the course the second hole part four so you survive those first two holes I think those first two holes are very key to start off and if you want to you can
Can also kind of play it live where you know you’re going to make a birdie on your guys’s going to make a birdie on that first hole so maybe if you want to live bet the first round leader Market which I don’t necessarily suggest because it’s dead heat rolls um but you
Can kind of try to get queued a little bit with it the 10th hole and the 15th hole have had their greens flattened a little bit so that there will be more hole locations also this year uh the 10th hole one of the iconic holes on the
PJ tour the driveable par 4 where everybody goes for it except for Justin Thomas which we’ll discuss a little bit later uh um so we’ll see how that affects how players play it this week because they’ve known that for the most part if you lay up you’re still going to
Have an almost impossible shot so you might as well just get yourself into the crap immediately and then start dealing with it so that’ll be really fun to see I’m pretty sure PJ true live is going to have a featured hold there this week and like you mentioned you got to pick your
Spots there’s a lot of undulation on these greens and so if you miss it on the wrong side of the green you won’t have as easy of a shot as other places and whereas some of the tougher green complexes we’ve seen so far on the PGH T
Have been where for example at the AMX you’ve got a Peete die course where there’s water on one side and then you got some other stuff on the other side or last week at Phoenix where there is some water in play there’s no water in play on this entire golf course which I
Think brings out some level of variance where there’s a penalty that’s stiffer than the actual Miss on courses with water frequently but this week there isn’t that so I think it’s a really cool different test than the rest of the PJ tour it’s my personal favorite course
That they play on the PJ tour outside of maybe TPC srats because I’ve played TPC srats a good number of times but this is probably the best course design on the PJ tour so very excited to see it and the cream should rise to the top especially because there’s no real
Choice because there’re only 70 players in the field this week 71 I think but now that we discussed the core Spencer let’s get into our outright betting cards you got the T so we we’ve talked about this a little bit and we’ve talked about how the cream
Is going to rise to the top like we’ve got gotten a lot of tournaments this year that have featured I would say either some combination of fewer star powerered options up top that would be kind of at the WM Phoenix Open last week where we discussed it on the show I if
Sheffer hom um you know any of those names up Justin Thomas if any of those names didn’t win it kind of opened up the board for what was going to come down beneath and and I know you ended up adding Nick Taylor at a certain point
From an in tournament uh live bet that you made but I think when you look at all of our cards from a pre-tournament perspective we were all peppering that like 100 to 200 to 300 to one range over and over again and you know unfortunately we didn’t land necessarily on the the right
Winner pre-event with the information we’d given but I think the general um synopsis of what we were trying to find there was was very correct in where if the top of the board falters all of a sudden things open up I don’t think that’s the case this weekend and I’ve
Kind of said this a million times I I would be shocked if we don’t get one of these aess names in the field to win um to me like really the furthest that I wanted to even consider down on the board was like the sewu Kim Cory Connor
Bo husters sort of range in that 60 to 801 range don’t really necessarily have a problem with any of those but I’m going to say that this is finally where we stopped this triple digit run that we’ve had of winners uh I’m going to say it probably shoots near the very top if
Not the very top with it so um Sheffer obviously top win Equity name on my board is T green acum is going to hold a massive advantage over the field for all the reasons that you can imagine but I decided to go a little bit further down
This slate just because of how quickly that exposure adds up and I started with Victor hland at 15 to one you can find if you shop around right now there is a 19 to one in the space so there are some numbers that are very doable for Victor
Hland out there I I think the interesting note for him is just how his how public his struggles became at Pebble Beach you look at the result that he posted and then the subsequent withdrawal from the WM Phoenix Open I think if he had played TPC Scottdale and
Let’s just say he finished anywhere I don’t know in the top 30 this price would have likely landed more in that like 10 to 12 to one range instead we got him to cite all the struggles with his game in the one event and then leave for additional coaching work like that
Kind of spurned on all this public lack of intrigue that we’re seeing right now in the market for him just because of we don’t know where his game is but you know he started this season with 18 consecutive rounds of shooting par better I think that’s a
Very interesting note for a golfer who has not been hot to begin the year but the results really have not been as poor as maybe they look on paper just a couple like even par rounds in rounds two and three at Pebble Beach didn’t allow him to move up the leaderboard and
He dropped down compared to what everybody else was doing but uh number one in my model when looking at Riviera Country Club in in projected success he’s inside the top uh seven of my model in six of the eight categories I ran that’s going to include weighted
Proximity he’s a great player from out of the rough in general uh total driving weighted scoring the historical Strokes gain on Fast pole greens that he’s put together he’s great on these long-term numbers of how do you gain Strokes on challenging courses even like even with the struggles he’s had he’s inside of
The top seven in my model over the past 20 rounds which is not necessarily including everything but it is including about half of what he’s produced this year or at least a third of what he’s produced this year in Strokes gain TAA green projection so when you have a guy
Like Scotty Sheffer and Rory maroy that are one and two in projected win equity for me but they’re priced as such like I’d rather just take the rebate with havland here at a price that I think he’s gotten pushed up a little bit too far up the board at a venue that he’s
Loved in the past so I took him at 15 to one and then I closed what ended up being a two-man card with Patrick can’t lay at 22 to1 um I wrote about this Roberto at Action Network like there’s been this heightened frustration in 2024 from the public I think that’s mostly
Stemming from this inflated pricing in the outright sector that we’ve gotten mixed with all of these poor results I’ve always come on these shows and and I’ve been a very big canl supporter over like the last two years of doing content here and I’ve always said the best time
To bet him is when he stretches into that 20 to 20 to plus range like that is more of where the value comes into play we were never getting the proper price to bet him at these 12 to1 numbers and if he’s going to be the one that drifts
Out a little bit further I don’t see a massive difference between him and Xander for him to be nearly double the price in a lot of these markets I know the form like if I’m actually comparing form here I think his form is a little
Bit shakier than hins uh like his te to Green Return over the last three events has just been bad across the board in all areas like at least with hin I can just point to the irons being what’s been wrong for him where I think if you
Look long term with the irons there’s really not that concerns and this is a really nice course for him obviously that’s why we’re getting the price that we are with Klay currently but uh inside the top five of my model for projected scoring on similar courses inside the
Top five in fast POA scoring and he’s a great par for scorer from 450 to 500 yards I think that’s a really key point this we week to salvage scores I talked about that at the beginning during the course breakdown those are the holes that are going to be the ones where
They’re producing those massive bogey or Worse rates so if kley can salvage a score there produce birdies are better on the par fives you’re going to have to score there we always know kley can score on the par fives I think this is a really nice track for him once again in
California which is where he finds a lot of his success so I think cley’s price just got a little bit too inflated I think those all make a ton of sense the thing for me on havin I texted you yesterday I was like among I haven’t
Bet on hin yet among the guys who I haven’t bet on he’s the one who scares me the most outside of of course Scotty sheffler because he has just such a high upside and he’s gonna hit the ball dead straight off the T he’s gonna hit the
Ball right at these pins and the question for me is just how off was it and how much of a fix could he make the first time back in competition is there going to be some ramp up period I don’t know yet I think I’m leaning toward betting it live I
Have a really short card here too this week I started off with Justin Thomas at 22 to1 I think this is a good week where if you’re just bullish on golfers bet them this week in some fashion maybe not necessarily to win if they don’t have
That type of upside but JT is somebody who I think is going to win sooner than later I don’t want to miss out on it like I missed out on Nick Taylor last week after I bet him the week before I’m on JT if you look at uh you mentioned
Our early outrights article I brought up some of his approach stats and maybe how some people might have forgotten how Elite this guy was on approach play last year he was 39th in Strokes gain approach which isn’t terrible I mean it’s very above average on the PGA tour
But you consider that last year 38 players beat him on approach the previous six seasons going back through 2017 only 18 players beat him on approach combined because he was no worse than eighth in any year so really really strong history of approach play for Justin Thomas I think he is getting
Back into that form and that hasn’t necessarily been completely priced back in because if Justin Thomas and Patrick cley for example are firing on all cylinders I’m gonna take Justin Thomas all day long I think that JT specifically in 150 to 200 yards which key range this week last year he was
Outside outside the top 85 in each of those buckets but in the previous years in the previous four years he was inside the top 13 from 150 to 175 all four years years and from 175 to 200 he was inside the top 27 three out of four
Years and inside the top 45 all four years so this is where he makes a difference with his iron play we mentioned the ker Ru JT knows this course he probably played it with tiger a million times and they know how to he knows how to attack this course he’s
Somebody who can move the ball from left to right and right to left with I think which I think is very key this week unless you can absolutely stripe it perfectly in the middle of the fairways I Allah Victor havland and Colin morawa guys who just find the Fairway and hit
Lasers like pretty much nobody else can outside of Scotty sheffler in from there so I started my car with JT also mentioned in the article that his putting has been much better than it was a lot of last year so this year he um so in his last six events he’s gain Strokes
Putting five times whereas in the previous 18 starts on tour he gain Strokes putting just four times so significant Improvement in putting the iron play also has improved at the same time I think there’s significant upside there he might be the second or third best player in this field period And so
Outside of Scotty of course so I like JT right now to strike especially while some of the other guys at the top of the board have not played their best in recent weeks so I like that I’m going to keep an eye on havin in tournament to see how those Strokes approach numbers
Are looking the first few holes um it’s it’s a weird start here with one two and then the fourth hole the ran where everybody misses the green so you really need to ball strike uh your way around this golf course so we’re going to figure out really quickly how Victor
Hof’s doing I also I hate to give out sale number but I bet Adam Scott 40 to1 if you find him at 35 to1 or better I would recommend betting him this week he has as great of course history this week as anybody else at Rivier already has
Two wins and he is in incredible form in the last six starts he’s finished in the top 20 worldwide all six five of those six have been top eight finishes including last week at the WM Phoenix Open we don’t have data for the three longest ones away uh only the three most
Recent ones we have data because the other ones were on the DP World Tour in Australia and in those recent starts he’s gained on approach significantly uh including over a stroke and a half last last week so I’m really bullish on Adam Scott everybody else in the world is too which
Is why his numbers moved down to 28 to1 in some places so I saw a bounce back up to 32 35 earlier today so definitely be sure to shop around if you want to bet on Adam Scott but the putter has upside he’s got upside with the irons the short
Game is the real question for him but he’s still above average there and he should know this golf course as well as anybody else been around the PJ tour for forever I like I think that experience matters on this gol Golf Course a lot more than other ones on the PGA tour and
So I really like Scott because of that and then my third and final golfer on my outright card this week is Kirk kyama gave him out for last week in the outright market and for Best Bet top 10 he did catch the top 10 at six and a
Half to one but Spencer I feel like both or I feel like all three of us Nick you and I all had a bunch of guys who were medium range to Long Shots whom we bet who all played well they just didn’t win they all finished between
Fifth and 25th and I think this week is a good week to kind of attack those type of players for top 10 top 20 markets where there won’t be some outsize penalty if you hit in the water on the 71st hole like you could do at TPC Scott
Steal so I’m GNA be playing some more KT kitama I haven’t quite figured that out if I want to do top 10 or top 20 I need to shop around but I really like Court kyama he last week actually had a little bit of a down week with the irons and he
Putted well surprisingly uh because he hasn’t been putting well very recently at all but he is really strong around the green and really strong on approach which I think are two of the most important factors this week and he’s super long off the te if he can avoid
Mistakes off the te I think he’s going to be situated to finish really highly this week and hasn’t missed a cut going back to The Travelers in June so he’s been playing pretty solid golf I think this guy’s got some upside and so I might play a little ladder play on
Him for to win and top 20 and top 10 maybe even a top five but I’m really bullish on Kirk kyama this week those are my three guys on the card I if I knew how was in good form I’d have a ticket on him already if I can find that
19 to1 that you mentioned I might also just I think the juice is worth the squeeze at 19 to1 for sure uh at 15 to1 I’m still a little bit on the fence but 19 I think there uh this course is made for guys like that W Neiman also similar
Type of game uh to Victor hin winner here a couple years ago so I think that makes a lot of sense I wanted to get back to the Adam Scott play that you mentioned against Sun JM because I got it at minus 130 I knew that Adam Scott
With the great course history with the form is going to be one of the most public golfers this week um so I knew that one was going to run away and Sun JM just hasn’t been playing great recently so I got him in mind 130 what’
You get him at and what why’ you want to fade sunj I also got it at minus 130 and and you know it it’s interesting with the Adam Scott thing because there’s always a player every single week that catches all the steam in the market and
And enters a Zone to where I mean Adam Scott is that this week he opens at 40 he drops into as low as 28 to one all his head-to-head matchups look super sharp like he he’s a pretty substantial favorite over a lot of names out there um that you wouldn’t even necessarily
Anticipate him being the favorite over I’ve seen a head-to-head matchup and I mean I maybe it’s because this guy changes his name so frequently that we like books don’t even know what he is or who he is at this point but like Adam Scott was a favorite over oberg I I mean
I think we’re saying that correctly now I don’t I don’t we’ve I I mean I would still like to say Oar but uh I also wanted to say aberer originally will settle on oberg I’m not changing that name again that’s going to be the last time inside information thanks to Action
Network golf staff writer Jason soel who had oberg on his radio show yesterday and he can confirm that it is in fact Ober so this is this drama is over it’s over for the time being until oberg decides that he wants to be called aberer again or whatever we would like
Go full circle on this and just start where we were but I think that’s a really noticeable thing that Scott would be the favorite over him in a head-to-head Market it shows with the the course history that he has here I think the metrics look great I love the
Idea of betting Adam Scott in a head-to-head market and that’s kind of one of the first things like I always talk about trying to find opponents to fade um I think for a no-cut tournament though you have to be willing to shoot for that upside and back golfers that
You actually want to back here uh just because you run into some really weird scenarios where there’s potentially four days like I’m going to say I mean unless oberg implodes on himself he’s probably going to be there for all four days so um I’m trying to shoot for as much
Upside as possible and and Scott had a lot of those metrics of what I was trying to find and um when you look at him specifically specifically against sunjay sunjay was the most mispriced golfer in my model this week and this is coming from somebody who loves sunjay
Every single week and tries to find a reason to back him this was like the first tournament in quite some time uh that just he was negative across the board the course history here has never really delivered how you would want it to on paper the current form is kind of
Tumultuous right now like three finishes that’s nothing’s better than a 66 then I mean Pebble Beach is a limited field contest there to where he comes 66 he comes 66 at the WM Phoenix Open I just don’t think he’s firing on all cylinders right now against the golfer that I mean
The market is telling you what it thinks of Adam Scott in outright bets in head-to-head Wagers that meant something to me to where I thought 130 was still a good price it’s it’s not betable anymore into this like minus 170 minus 180 range but um you know unfortunately that’s
What happens numbers move and I I don’t think either one of us are ever going to come on here and give out a steale number that’s not betable anymore yeah absolutely not and the sun JM numbers are really surprising and not only does he have those three consecutive poor finishes but he’s lost
Strokes significantly on approach in his last four tournaments so hopefully sunjay figures it out but once again we’re just a month removed from him finishing T5 at the Sentry where he gained pretty much across the board except for around the green so um it’s tough be in these Signature
Events because if you’re fading somebody it’s one of these really good players very much more likely than not so sunj still has some upside but you look at he’s more accurate off the te than he is long he’s not playing not in very form the Putter’s been up and down and he’s lost
Strokes around the green around the Green in three out of four prior performances at Riviera so not a ton not the perfect course fit at least on paper so far for sunjay but his talent is so good that he could overcome it yeah I mean that’s why at a certain point too
The value is just gone in the number like I’m not a big fan of in a tournament where I mean I guess there’s two ways to look at it one if you’re likely getting four days does that edge show over four days at some point rather
Than like a poor Adam Scott round that could have derailed things I I tend to think that the miscut is something that I would rather have into the mix historically that has shown better for me if I can take on that downside early uh but like if you look at sunj
Specifically and you talked about the approach play my model has him 28th in projected uh proximity on any course on tour it has him 56 out of 70 players here for projected proximity at Riviera country club that is a massive downturn for a golfer that already is not showing
The quality of form that you would want to see with the iron play that’s like bad on top of bad against the golfer and Scott who I loved how I mean I know a lot of that was smoking mirrors to where like it wasn’t a true top 10 finish
Because he really made the run at the end on on Sunday there but I mean that’s good enough for me to realize like this is a golfer who’s in form who’s heading to a course that he loves against a golfer that has re not one finish at
Riviera that I can point towards and a lot of those finishes have entered where he has had massively good form in a lot of these leadup events where he doesn’t have it this year so uh this has always been the little hiccup spot right before he enters like the Florida swing again
Like historically so I think it’s a nice spot to where you said when you take these star versus Star battles it’s really difficult to find too many of these stars that you want to take on this was one of those star names that I thought there was a legitimate reason to
Why he’s the most mispriced player on the board I thought that oberg versus Scott matchup was really interesting also um just by the way oberg somebody whom I will definitely keep an eye on in live market just because his talent is so otherworldly and nearly won at the
Farmers nearly won at PEB Beach who knows maybe if they play 72 holes instead of 54 he wins there and his price is a little different than what it is right now he’s just got such undeniable Talent he can beat you in a a myriad of ways as well I’m very
Intrigued to see how oberg does this week just about as much as anybody outside of Victor havin and the cat of course uh before we get into Tiger Woods a reminder that the links and locks podcast is proudly presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why
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Right Spencer arguably the grace golfer of all time Tiger Woods announced his new line of apparel yesterday the Sunday red said he will be competing in it for the first time this week at Riviera Country Club one of the rare spots where he didn’t win or he hasn’t won a
Tournament yet on the PGA tour and neither did Jack Nicholas by the way so fun little nugget there how are you approaching Tiger Woods this week are there any bets that you’ve made on him or any that have caught your eye or any that you might be looking for that you
Haven’t quite seen yet so I think here’s the problem with Tiger Woods bets and this doesn’t come as a shock because he is such a public favorite and we see it every single year that he enters contest if you look at books out there like Le let’s start with bet 365 and and
We’ll just move down to other bets that are out there in the market but if you look at bet 365 44th or worse is a massively Juiced side for him in a 7D Manfield so that’s going to show you where bet 365 believes tiger is gonna
Finish I mean it’s outside of the top 45 based off of that there my model would tend to agree with that answer I I think the problem is though with a lot of these shops out there and when you start looking around for numbers a lot of
These markets are oneway streets what I mean by that is you get props like how many birdies will Tiger make what is the top finish that Tiger’s GNA do will will he enter the top five but it’s a one-way Market you can only bet he will have
Over x amount of birdies he will finish better than this result this is just trying to bait in every single public that and I and I hope I’m wrong here I hope tiger comes top 10 it’s better for golf when he produces than when he’s not
In the field the eyeballs that come to the sport is what we need right now with all this turmoil that we have going on between the PGA Tour and Liv I hope tiger wins this contest but at the end of the day there is no value to be had
In betting Tiger Woods in a one-way Market where you can only bet the yes or the positive results and you can’t take on any of the negative traits and I think that’s the most indic indicative answer that I can give to everybody out there listening is that if a market or
Books are only going to offer you a one-way Street here it’s because they think he’s not going to do whatever the thing is that they’re telling you that you can bet him to do so I’m gonna be out I I hope I’m wrong I hope he
Produces it’s just even in his at his best this was he’s never won this tournament this is not necessarily a course that has been perfect for him and if we’ve seen in in recent iterations of where he’s played this contest really not that much to hold on to that you
Would love to see uh return wise like a lot of random either miscuts or finishes outside the top 30 like there’s just not not a ton there recently and um it’s always difficult to know exactly where his game is which I guess that’s a positive thing for Tiger in some sense
Here because he always could just be vintage tiger that turns back the clock um in I mean I don’t want to get too much into the apparel side of things here but I’m G to miss the Nike Ensemble that he used to wear like I don’t know
What this new outfit is he has that’s my personal take there that is not anybody from action maybe everybody else out there likes it but I I don’t know what that logo is at the end of the day it just it didn’t catch my eye that’s for
Sure I got to see him wear it for four days on the course before I make any judgments so we can touch base on that later next week who knows maybe we’ll get him and Jason day in the same group we could see all their fits together
It’s probably pretty likely I mean I I could very well see this being a Jason day Justin Thomas Tiger Woods pairing we should get those tea times later today and of course he’s DET tourament host so he gets a little home cooking in those pairings Spencer you
Got anything else on your card this week or are you ready to hop into our rapid fire shortly no I I’m good for Rapid Fire it’s a very minimal card this week we we lose all the value in the placement Market at least according to my numbers uh these smaller Fields
Reduce a lot of what I’m trying to do I didn’t think that the top 10 numbers were necessarily that great it was it it it was an interesting outright board just because there wasn’t as big of a upfront hold percentage as we have been getting some of these other weeks it’s
Probably because books are cleaning up with all these long shots that are coming in that you can reduce things like six seven perc and you know you still have a massive hold percentage that’s being taken up front there and and they’re fine doing that and I think
That kind of just speaks to how much quality that even books think that there is at the top of boards this week that it’s like you know pick which one you like of the group there’s 20 guys up there that are all like in that like 50
To one or less range that all have upside and figure out which one you think is the one that’s going to win and we’ll let you guys take them at a price set some are fairer than others but I mean that’s kind of it seems like what
Books have done this week did you have any golfers who just missed your outright card that you seriously considered or might add later I I always think Scotty Sheffer is a value when he’s at these seven seven and a half to one numbers I just can’t get there from an exposure standpoint it
It it’s more that I’m going to have at risk just to get him onto my card as a single name so I don’t really feel like betting one unit to win 7.5 I’d rather have like 0.7 units on havin and canle and bet them to win a little bit over
Seven I just think that’s like a better long-term EV strategy so I don’t have to get as much exposure there the one name for me and this is the Shocker here it it came down to either kle or morea a and I would be very curious to hear your
Thoughts here on this because I know you bet Justin Thomas if you look at Thomas uh you look at morawa like and you look at I mean I maybe you’re not on Klay I guess but like is there a price where moraca would have been more intriguing for you than
Justin Thomas is it just because his number opened up a little bit bigger earlier 25 to1 is always the number for me on morawa where it’s like I have to bet him there because especially on these golf courses with separate Elite approach play so I still have room on
The card I might add him if he gets to 25 to one in the 22 range I think it’s pretty fair I do too the putter always kind of makes me a little bit wary with morawa and I just think that a lot of what he does well Thomas also does well and
Which is why I like both of them they’re both Elite approach players Scotty shefford being in the field is a factor for me of course and I think you have to reach that higher level and I’m not sure that Colin can quite get there just because he’s not as long off the
Tea and he has the serious short game issues so but with that being said last time out he gained almost a half-stroke putting at P Beach of course only two rounds of track data there with the three rounds of the tournament and had his best around the green performance in
Over a year didn’t play that well on approach but those were weird circumstances with the weather and the soft conditions which I don’t think helped him if we get firmer and faster conditions I think that also will help the cream rice to the top which we haven’t had the last few weeks with
Pebble Beach and Phoenix last week I’m very intrigued by morawa he’s got great course history here where last two times top six finishes gain Strokes across the board I think he and havin are always very similar types of players but I just think that havin has a little bit more
Firepower which is why I would go with havin yeah so that’s why I would prefer to have havin in my back pocket than morawa but there’s a price for everything so if we get to 25 to1 for if I get 25 to1 for morawa or 19 to1 for
Havin I’d probably lean toward the 19 to1 for havin but I think you really spit split in hairs there and um and if I didn’t have JT I’d consider getting both of those guys yeah I I’ve had a bad habit this season of the first guy
That’s missed my card has either gone on maybe not to necessarily win a lot of these events so it hasn’t burnt me too much here but they have been like the second place finishers most of this week like if you look at like hoard and feno
A handful of weeks ago those were the first two names to miss my card uh very much looked like one of those names was going to win on Sunday and it just didn’t end up coming to fruition there like morawa was the closest one for me
And I never really see this upside in my model um I I always say that morawa like I think I agree 25 to1 was the price I wanted which is why I ultimately didn’t land on it but I I’m a little bit worried that like I I love the havin
Route that I’ve gone I’m a little bit worried that the can’t lay route ate up all the exposure to where I couldn’t get to moraca and the more that I’m keeping I keep running numbers the more I like morawa in a lot of these spots just want
To throw one little tidbit out there for everybody listening you can do with this what you want you can do with the information that uh historically this season the one that hasn’t made the card has been the one that’s been the one who’s kind of performed very admirably
In spots but Colin morawa in projected Strokes gain T2 green for Riviera Country Club when I ran the data over the last 24 rounds that’s going to take a couple events from this year and a couple events from last year so it’s going to stretch a little bit further
But it’s not going to run as far as I normally run the data number one in my sheet in expected Strokes gain to TD green there that’s including the short game problems that we’re talking about I do think that he is a decent enough player from out of the bunkers uh not
The best not the worst but I think that’s one of the reasons why he has found success here and his ability to hit Greens in regulation his ability to dominate with his irons and truly his ability to find Fairways to where yes like we would rather have players that
Have distance which hurts them a little bit against a name like Scotty sheffler or some of these highend marks when we actually have to talk about win Equity here I am very concerned that Colin morawa wins and I’m sitting here and I’m like like I I’ve done it again I have
Left the name who has won this contest or nearly won this contest sitting on the sidelines also quick aside you mentioned Victor havin a few times in the Pod Victor havin has done something really interesting over the last couple years where I believe it’s the 15th hole it’s
A par four where it has one of the most penal bunkers on the right side of the Fairway in the entire PJ tour and instead of taking that on as a guy who Fades the ball so it’s B probably going to be a little bit right if it fad too
Much unless he pulls it anyways he has gone down another Fairway adjacent to that hole and taken all bunkers out of play and he still has an angle into the green last year they tried to deter him from doing that by putting a scoreboard there but the scoreboard wasn’t high
Enough I’ve never talked about scoreboards before a tournament before I want to see how big that scoreboard is this week are they building it up there do they put a tree there what are they going to do are they going to keep them playing that way that’s an issue for
Pace of play because you got a whole other Fairway and other groups in the way uh I’m going to be very interested in that doesn’t really have anything to do with my handicaps on V hland or anything else um also wanted to mention that also wanted to mention just a
Couple guys who missed my card Taylor Moore 175 thought about it but given that I didn’t bet Nick Taylor last week I got some fomo so who knows I could go crazy and add that later had a couple guys at 60 to one that I also was considering
Seiw Kim Keegan Bradley Nikolai hoard are all 60 to1 ultimately I didn’t bet any of them because Bradley ultimately it didn’t bet any of them because hyar doesn’t have the course history any at all so I’m going to set this one out on him but who knows maybe
He contends get a live number on him or if I find him in a right the right spot in the round seeu Kim I can only stand watching him Miss so many putts he switched back to the short putter which I I have no idea what kind of putter
He’s going to use this week uh maybe he’ll be left-handed and Keegan Bradley is somebody who intrigues me because he’s H he’s played here a million times he’s just putted really poorly since basically 2017 here I like his approach play I think it plays here the putter can get hot I
Think it could work I had him at Sony and I just don’t know that he has the Firepower this week but Kian Bradley’s is about as far down as I wanted to go outside of Kirk kyama who I think does have that Firepower so I chose him
Instead but Keegan somebody who I might play in some of the who I wanted to play in the placement markets but just because there aren’t that many players I don’t love the numbers for example last week we had kittama six and a half to
One for a top 10 this week he’s five and a half to one in a much stronger field so I don’t feel like that’s the best play in in such a stacked field especially when last week we mentioned that the top two three guys were there
But there were going to be seven other spots in that top 10 that were going to be wide open for the taking this week I think it’s going to be a lot more competitive especially with no cut so I’m laying off on KK kyama and those
Other top 10 plays for now but maybe we’ll get some kind of boost in the market later this week all right Spencer we’ve got some time to go through the rest of the guys 50 to1 or shorter here in our rapid fire segment I’ll give you an option on betting certain guys at
Different numbers and you tell me who you’d rather have a ticket on we discussed Scotty sheffler already so we’re going to skip past him Rory mroy 11 to1 would rather have a ticket on him at 11 to1 Xander shley at 17 to1 or another southern Californian in Max H
Who’s already won this tournament at 19 to one I kind of like the upside numbers for for Rory here um didn’t want to get there with a ticket necessarily at the price that we’re paying but I think of those three options I worry a little bit that H’s course history and the
California narrative has just baked in so much into his total I am not going it’s the same answer I’ve given for can’t of why I can’t bet Xander at those prices at this point it’s just too low like put him at 25 to one plus we can
Have this conversation again but like no matter how great the numbers look the win Equity just never quite shows up the way you want it to Rory looked great in his last start until he didn’t look great and all of a sudden imploded himself off the leaderboard took
Penalties finishes near the bottom of the pack it was such a weird finish that round that just continued for every single day throughout the rest of the tournament until it ended there so um he started this year very strong over on the DP World Tour I think Rory has legitimate upset
Here now if I’m going to move to the top I think I’d rather just move to the very top and go to Scotty and that would be more of the route but uh Rory was second in my model for projected win Equity very slightly above what I had for
Victor hin so that’s one of the reasons why I went with hin just because there was better value in that price but uh I mean that’s sheffler Rory havin would be the top three and then I mean really if you’re looking for where the rest of that win Equity comes from me like
Xander is technically the next name but it’s a very close margin between Xander and Klay and hland and morawa like all those players are kind of all in the same range so I decided to take the ones that were deeper and that was kind of the mindset behind that I agree with
Everything you just said I think that I I can’t remember around like Rory’s first couple rounds at Pebble Beach where he was six under par gets the two-stroke penalty he was the the favorite to be the first- round leader to win the tournament everything and he finishes 66th out of what like 80
Players that week shocking um I think you’re getting a little bit of a discount because of that so if you want to just play Rory if you’re a big Rory fan and you just want to bet him and nobody else in the outright Market this week I don’t think it’s a terrible
Strategy not doesn’t fit my risk profile personally but I think you could do worse this week yeah Welcome to my life at Augusta National every single year betting Rory maybe this is the year all right moving along we mentioned Klay we mentioned J mentioned Mory Kawa so moving to ludvig
Oberg at 22 to1 Sam Burns at 27 your boy Tony feno at 30 and we’ll throw in Jordan spe at 30 as well among those four players at those ticket prices which one would you most rather have among obber Burns fenal and spe so I I
Don’t think he necessarily wins I go on every single show and give him but I continue to be very intrigued by Tony Fen now it’s kind of the answer you gave for seu that you can’t watch him miss another Putt and the like the one thing
With SEI wo is at least you’re getting it at prices that are more in like the 60 to 70 to one range it’s a little bit more like you can stomach that better than betting Tony fow at 30 to1 and watching every single putt Miss in each
Direction and uh I mean he’s dead last in my model over the last 24 rounds in Strokes gain putting in this field that is not what you want to see but as I’ve always said maybe he’s a better top 10 or 20 bet for that reason um players
That are striking the ball well they are the one ones that end up spiking with the putter randomly and winning a golf tournament I don’t think we necessarily have the price in the outright Market to take that chance just because the putter has been so cold but he was one of those
Names in a placement Market I did consider I didn’t necessarily see a price that I loved on him but um I would probably shoot it into a top 10 range just because of of the erratic nature with his putter that he’s had I’d rather shoot for like maximum upside there than
Getting stuck and watching him come 22nd and you know paying a low minus whatever ever it ends up being versus like I’ll take a plus number more in that like two and a half to three to one range to get a top 10 completely cosign all of that on
Fenale the ball striking numbers are awesome the putting is not um very interested to see how he does next week at the Mexico open at vanta where he is defending and of course last year it was a two-horse race between him and ROM going to be really interested to see
Who’s in that field next week because they’re going to going to have to have somebody replace John ROM in that field among the top dogs is it going to be Rory who didn’t play last week is it going to be one of those other guys who didn’t play last week because I think
It’s a big ask for Scotty sheffler for example to play four straight weeks uh next week this is the third week I also think it’s going to be a pretty good tournament from top to bottom just with the way that this new schedule works like if you’re not Auto qualified for
Some of these events I think you’re going to see and we we’ll see what happens I would assume hoard will probably be there I would assume m Le should probably be there like you’re going to get some of these names that are in scramble mode right now to try to
Make sure that they lock up some of these events moving forward and uh it’s very important for them to get points so uh that’s at least something to note too like the field could be decent that’s a huge bombers course so if you see somebody like an oberg or a
Hoy guard this week who catches your eye their number whatever they open at next week is probably not going to be there for very long no so just keep that in mind that could be the Adam Scott of this week I would agree with that uh moving along we’ve got Tommy
Fleetwood at 35 to1 sahit dalala who contended again this week at the WM Phoenix open at 35 to1 cam Young Who I had on my card at 45 to1 last week he also I forgot to mention just missed my card but I’m very intrigued by him might
Actually add him I’m closer than anybody else and Fitzpatrick also 45 to1 so Fleetwood 35 the gal 35 young 45 and Fitz 45 if you had a a free ticket I want those four spener who would you pick I think the young number is fine I
Saw enough from him last week to at least be intrigued I we always talk about fleetwood’s lack of win equity in some of these events I mean Cameron young is starting to exhibit that even in a worse way in some of these positions like I mean anytime he sniffs
The top of the leaderboard things are going south for him like at least with Fleetwood he’s had enough success in Europe to where he’s closing out those Events maybe the problems come in on the PJ tour but I like the numbers for fleetw this week maybe not at the price
At 35 to1 but uh inside the top 15 of my model in all iterations of how I ran it I think there’s a lot to like about his short game I know I’ve I’ve reduced the impact of my inside of my model for the short game returns there but even still
He graded very well um I think there’s a lot to like about him here I I I don’t know if I necessarily believe he wins this tournament but he’s one of those names in that like 30 to 40 to1 range uh very similar to an Adam Scott in my mind
To where there legitimate reason why they’re priced the way they are I think these guys all have these guys are all really intriguing and I probably rather bet these guys in the 30 to 40 to1 range than the guys past morawa between 23 to1 and 30 to1 I would
Agree very they have more complete games they have more pass to winning um especially dalala Fleetwood and Cameron young Cameron Young by the way really strong putting week last week and we know he bombs the ball also T2 at this event a couple years ago when Neiman won
When he tied with morawa so he in that week where he finished T2 he gained over four strokes per round to the field so that normally wins you a golf tournament on the PGA tour but wrong week for him that time so he’s not somebody who I’m out on in winning I
Just think that he’s got upside and it all just depends on the number for him because it’s tough for him to put together but I he’s going to do it at some point and he’s going to do it at a Big Boy golf course too so I’m very
Intrigued by cam young I might add him to the card maybe we’ll see if there’s a wave advantage or something or maybe you get cute try to play before he makes a turn to number one yeah um moving along to 50 to1 and we’ll get you out of here
Because Jason days in this group Tom Kim 50 to1 wiam Clark 50 to1 Jason day 55 to1 will Z Tor 55 to1 we got a big unknown in will Z we got a youngster in Tom Kim we got your former favorite player in the world Jason day and we
We’ve got your new favorite player in the world winam Clark 50 to one who are you taking a ticket on um favorites aside I I can’t I can’t give Jason day on a show anymore like like I said this last week breakups are difficult I I I
Can’t keep going down this route where I allow him back into my life so it can’t be a Jason day answer here I also don’t feel like I can give a Windom Clark answer just because there’s been such a pristine record that I’ve had with him
Like when when I’ve Chen him in spots he has one if my model isn’t necessarily predicting that I’m going to go a different route there I think it’s a fine course fit for him like he’s inside the top 15 of my model don’t necessarily have any massive concerns I guess my
Bigger worry would just come down to like what his win Equity actually is in this field at the price that you’re paying if I was to just randomly shoot for the moon here it would probably be on Tom Kim uh we saw a little bit of something at the end of last week’s
Tournament at the WM Phoenix Open where I thought he made a nice run on the week and he almost missed that cut and he got himself through showed a little bit of signs of life again that we hadn’t seen for a handful of events um I always
Think that just with his age and the upside that he has shown in the past he’s an intriguing Target to consider I I don’t I couldn’t find a way to get him onto my outright card but he did have positive trajectory for upside that negative floor that you’re looking for
And like on the reverse end like where he’s a better upside bet than would be a safety play but I I think that works fine in in certain markets whether like that be for a top 10 or for an outright win like that’s more of like the doable
Route that I would like to take with Tom Kim I think these guys all have flaws Kim I’d like to be a little bit longer but I think he I would too has upside that you mentioned that I really like wiam Clark I want him to be able to move
The ball both ways but um he I think at 50 to1 still a little bit disrespectful I he should be more closer to 40 to1 J day has really struggled here the approach play is not what I’d like to see and wills out tus the club head
Speed the ball speed isn’t where it was two years ago until we get back there he’s not that golfer for me so he doesn’t have the short game like a Tom Kim that can overcome it so with that Spencer I know you got to get out of
Here where could the people find your work this week so you can find me on Twitter at tof sports I will have my Wednesday outright article that I’m going to do here at Action Network we’ll talk about where the sharp money has moved in we’ll continue that
Conversation that we had here we’ll get a little bit more in depth of live back some of the names I have and we’ll talk about where the best value is on the board if you’ve missed any of those prices of where things sit on Wednesday I’ll also have all my in tournament bets
That I post over here at Action Network and then you can get my model and all the data that I’ve talked about over at Roto baller and Spencer Anders understand you’re receiving an award this week uh we’re going yeah I’m I’m going over to the FSG GA convention which is the
Fantasy sports and gambling Association uh there uh it’s gambling thing it’s a a thing for Roto baller that we are accepting for some of the work that we have done so uh you know very honored for everybody who does support my work over there and everybody who listens to
This podcast here at Action Network and you know it’s funny Roberto I’ll tell the story really quickly before I get off so I went to the convention last year and I it was best podcast Network that might not be the exact title of what of what the award was and I’m
Sitting there and we’re I’m watching all these other companies win all these Awards and I’m like a well this is disappointing like nothing is going to come home uh to the Roto baller team when I’m there and all of a sudden it’s best podcast Network and it’s Action
Network and I’m sitting there and I’m like I feel like I may have just won like I have at least contributed enough to this with the show shows that I do with Roberto and the shows that I’ve done with Jason soble that I’m at least
1% of that award so while I wasn’t the one that got to go on stage in accept it and do all of that I I I do feel like I was there in honor for you Nick and myself and Jason soble and the rest of the team we will gladly accept and
Congrats on uh winning this week and thanks for all of your great work it’s greatly appreciated and of course if you guys out there aren’t already subscribed subscribe to Roller baller as well check out Spencer’s model that he released every Monday it is a it has a wealth of
Information in there uh which absolutely has made me a better so definitely check that out of course you can find all of our Action Network golf content on the app on the web anywhere you want it and of course in podcast form want to give a
Big thanks to all of our producers who make this possible producers Matt and Noah and big thanks to everybody else at action who makes this possible so thanks for everybody for tuning in this week and good luck this week at Riviera and hopefully we get a Tiger Woods win and
Of course we’re going to add it live if he does but thanks everybody and we’ll catch you next week in Mexico
1 Comment
As always great work guys 👍