On this episode I quickly recap the Waste Management before breaking down Riviera Country Club. Then I dive into the field from a betting and Draftkings Standpoint starting with Tiger Woods and his recent results.
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Ladies and gentlemen boys and girls children of all ages this is at the helm Sports I’m your host Derek Helm thank you for joining me for episode 116 please be sure to follow And subscribe on Apple podcast and Spotify leave those five star reviews if you are watching on
YouTube make sure you’re subscribed to the channel hit that like button and in the comments section tell me are you playing Tiger Woods this week in DraftKings are you planning on betting him in any capacity let me know down in the comments obviously that is the big
News this week tiger is making his 2024 debut in the tournament that he is also hosting the Genesis Invitational so pretty excited for that another big boy tournament signature event so hopefully we can break the string of huge long shot winners winning these tournaments because my bank roll is seriously
Hurting because of it but maybe in a Big Boy event we we can kind of change that now obviously last week we did have another Longshot winner winning with Nick Taylor obviously they went into the playoff the tournament ran into the Super Bowl a little bit so wasn’t really
The greatest fin for the PGA obviously the leaderboard on Sunday was very exciting you had a lot of big names up there Justin Thomas kind of fell back theala looked like he possibly had it for us there for a little bit but he just couldn’t really get it done did hit
The eway though Sam Burns was there obviously Scotty sheffler lurking the whole entire time so it was interesting to see the fact that of all those names it was Charlie Hoffman and Nick Taylor but I guess that’s fitting for so far in 2024 obviously the waste management is
One of my favorites but from a total standpoint it was a bit of a disaster obviously it started off with a rain delay we had frost delays and as a result it kind of made the crowd a little bit Restless generally the patrons are pretty drunk there but it
Looks like they got a little bit out of hand this this year especially Saturday when they had to stop serving alcohol and I guess when you’re just sitting there with absolutely nothing to do because of delays that’s gonna happen but hopefully this week we don’t have to
Deal with any weather and we can actually get a regular tournament that would be pretty nice but as far as the waste management goes as a whole definitely enjoyed it you know it was a little bit inconvenient with the delays and everything but definitely made it a
Good finish on Sunday and made it exciting now the fact that it ran into the Super Bowl and the fact that theala wasn’t really in there for contention anymore I’m not going to lie I didn’t even watch the end of it I I I watched the Super Bowl was checking on my phone
To see what was going on but good for Nick Taylor of course been playing him and DraftKings for the past couple weeks but hasn’t really worked out too well and of course as soon as I get off of him the guy wins a tournament but that’s
The way it works so we move on to the Genesis Invitational as I said tiger hosting tiger is also playing making his debut it is a signature event so we have 65 of the top golfers in the world here it is technically a cut event instead of
A no cut there’s really only 65 guys in the field and we’re cutting to the top 50 in ties so I mean there really is a possibility that five guys might get cut maybe 10 so kind of playing it like a no cut event obviously but tiger said he
Wanted to cut at his event and good for him I I you know I I hate the fact that they’re making these signature event no cut events so although it’s a small one we do get a cut here but the Genesis is obviously played at Riviera Country Club
Which is an incredible course has has always been one of my favorites and and a lot of people around golf from fans and and golfers themselves love it here it’s a beautiful course a a lot to like a lot of challenges it could be challenging on some holes it can be a
Little bit easy on some holes but if we dig into it obviously viously John ROM won last year if you have any idea who might be signing with Liv maybe bet on them play them in DraftKings because the last two winners went to live we have
Rah and and Neiman Rah won it 17 under two-stroke lead over Max hom he was incredible with his irons gaining over 12 Strokes or just under 12 Strokes on approach H obviously has been incredible here had some strong performances had the runner up last year has top 10
Finishes in four more straight here including his win in 2021 so this seems to be a home a happy place hasn’t really been great recently but maybe he can turn it around here with how well he always plays here also K moraca was pretty good came sixth place last year
And was second place the the previous year in 2022 speaking of 2022 that was the year walking Neiman won he went wire to wire won it at 19 under had a bit of a shaky start to his Sunday but he chipped in from 45 ft for Eagle on the
11th hole and and basically never look back from there morawa as I said came second and and cam young was there with him as well the top 10 had a bunch of other notable names from havin Sheffer Thomas Rory was up there so a lot of big
Names were in there and then the previous year as I said was the year that Max hom won he beat Tony fow in a playoff at 19 under so that that’s the past couple years of of History here the Genesis has played at Riviera Country Club in the Pacific palisad in
California it is a 7,322 yard par 71 with POA greens hole number one is a 53 yard par five that plays as one of the easier holes on tour boasts about a 60% birdie rate so the other two par fives are on the back nine they play as the second and third
Easiest holes so you definitely want to take advantage of these par fives now there’s six par fours that measure between 450 and 500 yards so that is something that I am looking at this week stat-wise is guys that can play well on those par fours 450 to 500 yards pars a
Pretty good score on those holes you know they play as some of the hardest holes on the course especially the 479 yard 12th hole which has nearly a 30% bogey rate which I mean that that can’t be good for anybody trying to score on that hole now the 10th hole is
One of the best holes in golf it’s a very short Par Four can play anywhere from 28 82 yards to 315 so really a risk reward hole where you can try and go for the green or or or maybe lay up and and have a short chip but definitely a drivable hole
Going to be very interesting to see what guys do on that hole and and definitely one of my favorites as far as golf goes as far as irons go mid to Long irons are definitely going to be a must here we have 27% approach shots coming from 150
To 175 another 23% from 175 to 200 and then another 23% from 200 yards or more so those mid to Long irons are are going to be just constantly relied upon here so definitely want to look at at those proximity ranges for your golfers this week whether making bets or in
DraftKings now obviously longer iron shots come with some lower G percentages coming in at about 57% so well under tour average it’s it’s hard to hit greens here and obviously if you’re not hitting greens you’re going to want a little bit of it around the green game
As well and even if you do hit greens it it’s not a guarantee that you’re going to get a birdie or even a par here because these are some difficult greens to to putt on as well there are some undulations they pin placement can be
Put where it’s kind of hard to get to some birdie opportunities here three putts are pretty prominent here so similar to Tory Pines and peble Beach this course forces some of the most misses Miss putts inside of five and 10 feet on tour so just keep that in mind
As well as I said if you’re missing green it’s going to require some finesse around around the around the greens really looking at bombers here driving distance does help a little bit even though the average Drive is is a little bit below tour average at 283 yards but
I I do like some bombers here guys that can play with those mid to Long irons well hitting greens if they do miss greens a a little bit of around the green game is is definitely something you want to rely upon but that’s what we’re looking at for this week the cut
Line the past couple years has been plus two plus one somewhere around there now obviously this is not going to be a typical cut that we generally see so really not focusing too much on that but just to give an idea you know we’re usually somewhere around minus 17 minus
19 for the winner and then the cut line has been overpar so it it is a pretty difficult course and the guys playing at the top might have a little bit easier of a time but just some things to keep in mind there now if we dive into the
Actual player pool might as well get right into it right away you know he’s further down the board in the betting odds and and on DraftKings but let’s talk about Tiger Woods obviously didn’t play much last year outside of this event so really going to be interesting
To see you know where his game is at and and where he is healthwise obviously he’s had tons of injuries over the past couple Seasons back feet knees so really the big thing is going to be the elevation changes here there are some ups and downs where he’s going to have
To walk quite AIT bit so it’s going to be interesting to see if he maybe can make it through this shortcut which obviously would be huge for the PGA and for viewership but if if he can make it through maybe he Fades a little bit on
The weekend but it it’s going to be interesting to see now as I said hasn’t really played much outside of this event last year so almost a full year without competitive rounds he did play at the Hero World Challenge now he came 18th out of 20 golfers there shooting even
Par and just in comparison Sheffer won that event at minus 20 so he was basically second to last and and came even par so not not a great showing but that’s his most recent competitive rounds he did also play in the PNC Championship with his son Charlie again
That’s obviously not a PGA event or a signature event so really not too great there but last year he he shot one under and came 45th here so not too bad he shot 69 74 67 then 73 on Sunday so started off good not great on Friday
Started the weekend good not great on Sunday so it’s going to be interesting to see what he can do here he was good with the irons and and just a little spotty with the driver here so it is a course that that he can potentially play
Well but oddly this is one of the very few courses that he has not won on in his career which is pretty crazy to say so you know it’s a place to where he’s played a ton and and just not really able to get it done now obviously at
This point of his career it’s probably a long shot for him to be able to contend here but maybe he can sneak into the top 20 if I was looking at anything maybe making a top 30 bet on him I think I saw it at like plus 110 plus 115 in some
Places so in only a 65 man field with 50 men making the cut maybe he can sneak into the top 30 at plus money I don’t hate that from a draftking standpoint I kind of don’t really want to dive down into the sixes too we’ll get there with with the field but with
Tiger specifically I do think people will play him just obviously being Tiger Woods and how often do you even get to play him anymore so I I don’t think he’ll be crazy owned but he’ll definitely be one of the higher owned down in this range at 6500 I don’t think
It kills you because it probably allows you to fit more guys at the top whether you want to go Scotty or Rory or or Jam in another one of these 9k guys so from a construction lineup construction standpoint I I do think it could make some sense I personally don’t know if
I’m going to get there this week on tiger though but if we dive into the rest of the field obviously Big Boy field we we have the best players in the world here Scotty Sheffer up top 11,500 the guy is just always in contention every single week it’s hard
To make a case against him now 11,500 is pretty expensive but as I just said this pricing is pretty soft there’s some guys down in the sixes and the low sevens that you can play to make it work so I as of now I have Scotty starred but I I
Do have interest in Rory this week 11,200 it’s a place where he’s played well 10th place in 2022 two top fives in 2020 and 2019 last year not great T3 t29 obviously at Pebble he did not play well but did play better in the Middle East has already won over there earlier this
Year so been playing some good golf already this year and maybe just had a little hiccup up there at Pebble Beach so I’m willing to go to Rory and might even play him a little bit more than Scotty kind of want to see what the ownership comes in on the two of them
But definitely have them both starred for right now I I do like Xander a lot I I like a lot of the top of this board I I think I’m gonna try and jam as much of them as I can but I I think I might lean
A little bit more balance builds this week so I I do like these guys I think Xander can play well here but he’s a huge significant savings off of the top two so I I think he could get a little bit popular here with with how well he’s
Played here in the past and I want to see what the ownership is on him as far as victor hin goes 10,000 I think is a good price for him the issue there is he just hasn’t looked right this year you know fired his his short game coach
After making some improvements in in that department last year and just withdrew last week saying his game isn’t where it needs to be so it’s kind of sketchy a little bit concerned about him now with that being said he’s probably going to come in pretty low owned here and
It’s a course where he’s played well in his three times that he’s played here so you can definitely make a case to go there I I definitely think from a game theory standpoint it makes a ton of sense especially if if he’s half or a quarter of the ownership of these other
Guys but as of right now I I I don’t really think I’m going to go there because obviously maxom 9,800 this is his happy place another guy that hasn’t really been playing well lately but I think he could probably turn it around here has has played well here with those
Top 10 with the the win so I I’m in on Homa I also love Colin morawa I’m I’m gonna be playing quite a bit him I’ve made an outright on him also at 18 to one so he’s played the Genesis four times came 26 43rd and then second and
Six the last two years actually has the fourth most total Strokes gained here over the last five years despite only playing it four times so do like his his history here he missed the cut at the farmers but otherwise he’s been pretty good this year he came fifth at Sentry
14th at Pebble he’s also obviously a great statistical fit here third and ball striking sixth on approach he’s seventh from that 175 to 200 range 11th from 150 to 175 over the last 24 rounds so we do like that mid to Long iron game that that Mora how provides he’s a
Pretty good putter on POA and has two top 10 finishes the last two years here so hopefully he can get it done again there and I I like him quite a bit here now right below him is is Patrick Klay 9,300 I think is really cheap for him
Another guy that plays this course well I will play him as well but I do think his ownership gets up there a little bit so I probably lean a little bit more H and and mor aawa and if we get to the guy right below him Ludo bear
Obviously th this guy has never played played here before he’s he’s making his debut at at the Genesis but it looks like his game definitely fits here and it looks like his game fits everywhere because the guy has just been incredible since stepping onto the scene last year
And especially this year had a great start to 2024 he’s improved over each of his first four tournaments started 47th at the Sentry 30th at the Sony then the ninth at farmers and a second place at Pebble just really just missing a couple putts hasn’t been terrible with the
Putter it’s just a couple putts here in there that have really kept him out of contention so he did gain 2.7 Strokes on The Greens at Pebble so definitely like that you know after losing Strokes in in three events he he turned it around at Pebble and POA is his best putting
Surface so I I I love Oar quite a bit 9,200 I think is a great price for him I’ve also bet him at 22 to1 so I I I think we could see a win coming from him at some point this season and I I’m I’m
Willing to go there in a Big Boy event over the last 24 rounds statistically he looks good third from 150 to 175 fourth in ball striking sixth on par for is from 450 to 500 and 10th on approach he’s also ninth in driving distance so definitely love where his game is at now
If we go down a little bit further actually right below him Justin Thomas I’m willing to go there again the guy has just been extremely consistent over the past several weeks just really just at some point of each one of these tournaments he’s hit a little bit of a
Low where he’s not really hitting the birdies that he needs to to contend but still right up there at the top in all of these and unfortunately yesterday I I was tied up at work and missed some of the really good numbers on him for an
Outright he was at 28 to start then 25 22 missed all that and now he’s down to 16 so unfortunately I wasn’t able to get the outright on him I’ve been betting him quite a bit lately and I’m going to be pissed off if I missed the uh the
Boat on this one so I I did actually parlay Scotty and him for top 20s that’s at plus 115 I believe so did want a little piece of JT there and I I love him from a draftking standpoint I expect him to be pretty popular now because I
Do like all of those guys probably can’t really get to a lot of these next guys but I think speed can be fine here feno has played well here in the past it’s a course that probably fits him I’m fine if Fleetwood hurts me Burns has been
Really good too and and has some mixed results here but with the way his game is going I I think you can make a case for him and then I’m probably skipping over most of those guys and I I will sprinkle in some thala just you know he
Seems to be a streaky golfer and just he’s been playing very very well obviously just not enough to win last week but still had the top five so I’m fine with him there and then cam young I want to see what his ownership gets to obviously this is a guy that has played
Well here before played well last week so it looks like he’s in a good space but if he’s astronomically owned I’m I’m fine skipping over him I’m going to play some Windam Clark 8,300 I I I do think that his game is in a great place I do think that his game
Can fit here guy that can bomb the ball out there he can make some putts has a little bit of the around the the green game that we like you know he’s he’s 12th around the green over the last 24 rounds so I I’m fine going there with
With Clark I’ve actually made an outright on him as well at 40 to1 with a top six each way so hopefully Clark can get it done here Adam Scott has been an absolute monster at this course and he he definitely is going to be very popular but I I don’t care I’m playing
Him I also missed the outright number on him so took a top 20 on him at plus 110 but he’s played well so far this year played played over on the DP World Tour and was playing good 20th Place at Pebble eighth place last week week at the waste management he gained 6.5
Strokes on approach so those irons look to be dialed in now over the last 50 rounds he’s ninth in ball striking eighth in driving distance 19th from 150 to 175 all of that is exactly what you want for Riviera and as I said he’s been a monster here you know he’s performed
Well he has three top 10 finishes here over the last five years one of which was a fourth place in 2022 he did win in 2020 he’s gained the third most total BR here over the last five years so this this is an Adam Scott course he he plays
It well he’s won it he’s going to be popular but I I don’t care I am playing him I also like will zalatoris I mean this this is a guy that so far this year playing pretty well obviously had the back injury last year and and didn’t
Really look too great he started at the Sony Open with with a miscut but bounced back at the American Express and and had some flashes look pretty PR good 34th Place and then most recently at the farmers he he looked really good came 13th Place there basically gained across
The board T to green and and on the greens so I I like him he’s actually not too bad at Riviera as well he’s had some pretty good finishes where are we had a fourth place last year 15th Place in 2021 so I I I like zalot Torres quite a
Bit made the outright on him 40 to1 with the top six each way and I’m I’m going to ride him in DraftKings too 7900 I think is a good price for him I think you can make a case for Keegan right below him don’t like him as much as some
Of the guys that I just mentioned but I I do think Keegan might make the player pool and then I’m G to kind of pick and choose in this range it’s not going to be too many guys I I do think that this is a course that could possibly fit
Russell Henley although it hasn’t really too much in the past he hasn’t been bad here but really hasn’t done anything great so as of right now he’s a possibility obviously Eric Cole 7,700 hasn’t been as good as we’ve seen but a consistent golfer and a no cut field at
At this price I do like that quite a bit seiw Kim I don’t know if I want to get there but he’s got so much boom bust potential I don’t think a lot of people will be playing him so in in a short field if he’s low owned with the upside
He possesses I think it could make some sense if you do want to play him Ben yanan looks like that little run has come to an end for the time being I do like Denny quite a bit another guy that hasn’t played too poorly here great
Putter so it doesn’t seem like his game would really fit here but I mean he’s he’s played well he’s got a 14th last year now he didn’t miss the cut in 2021 but 37th in in 2020 so some good finishes here and and been playing
Pretty good golf so far this year so I’m fine going to Denny as well Hideki Matsuyama at 7,400 100 another guy that’s been playing pretty good seems to be improving a little bit week to week wasn’t really contending last week but played all right and it’s only 7,400 I
Do think he gets a little bit popular down here just because it’s a pretty low price for a guy like keki I’m okay with Chris Kirk I I do think that his iron game and and little bit of ability around the green could pay off here and then don’t really like a ton
You could maybe go back to Nick Taylor he’s he’s been playing pretty good golf obviously coming off the win last week so maybe if you want to go there I I do actually like Harris English quite a bit here I I think that he could possibly
Get the putter going and and get his irons going and maybe have a good showing here at only $7,000 I don’t think he gets too popular so I’m fine going there came 12th here last year so Harris English is is definitely in the player pool for me I like Tom hogi down
In the sixes is 6,700 a ball Striker so third on approach over the last 24 rounds I I think that he could do some damage here maybe some Luke list has a little bit of that that driving and he can get a little hot with the irons from time to
Time pretty good around the greens so I’m fine going Luke list as I said probably not getting there on tiger I’d honestly probably rather go $100 less than him as low as I’m probably go here is potentially Matt coocher you know in what’s essentially a
No cut event if I’m trying to jam Rory or Scotty up at the top I I do think that it could actually make a little bit of sense to go to coocher he came eighth here last year had a second place in 2020 so it’s a place where he plays well
Strikes the ball well can find the putter from time to time so I I’m fine going with coer won’t play a lot of him but I I do think that it’s a place where he can play well and it is price it it makes some sense as far
As my betting card goes what I have just to recap we have Colin morawa at 18 to1 ludvig oberg at 22 to1 wendam Clark at 40 to1 with the top six each way as well as will zot Tores at 40 to1 with the top six each way and then I
Took a stab at at Adam Scott with the top 20 at plus 110 and Scotty sheffler and Justin Thomas parlay them together with their top 20s and that comes out to plus 115 probably throw in a couple more maybe top 20s or top 30s if there’s anything I like look at the tournament
Matchups so obviously you can check out theh Helm sports.com for all the rest of my Wagers or you can also check out the helm Sports on substack you can sign up for the email that’ll go right to your inbox and I will have have my final
Betting card in there as well as any final thoughts for the week as far as DraftKings goes all the links to everything including this podcast and and articles will be in there as well so definitely check out the newsletter but should be a good week definitely excited for another signature event maybe the
Weather actually cooperates and we get a normal event and maybe it’s not a long shot this week and and we can get one of these guys to pay off big time that would be nice but that’s going to do it for this week excited for the return of
Excited for the Genesis open let’s make some money but I am your host Derk Helm and remember just have fun out there
