Golfbet Roundtable: Picks and predictions for The Genesis Invitational

The Golfbet team has their picks narrowed down for The Genesis Invitational 2024, including outright winners, longshots and best prop bets for the tournament at The Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California.

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The PGA TOUR continues on the West Coast this week for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines Golf Club. For the third-straight year, this event will be played from Wednesday through Saturday. Max Homa returns this week to defend his title. Alongside winning the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa in November, Homa has not finished worse than T21 since missing the cut at the Travelers Championship last June. Xander Schauffele will also be in California this week. He’s making his ninth start in San Diego where his best finish was T2, five shots off the winner in 2021. The American claimed T10 at The Sentry and T3 last week at The American Express to start the new season. Australian Min Woo Lee will also be in California this week after closing out 2023 winning twice in his last five events worldwide, including victories in Macau and Australia. He’ll be looking to improve on the T21 he managed last week at The American Express. Others to look out for are Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay and Sungjae Im.

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Tiger Woods is back on the PGA tour and on the grounds at Riviera in Pacific Palisades and what a Monumental night it was last night Sunday red tigers’s new brand set for a new generation of golf to get into the game and we’ve got some

Picks to make here on the round table of the Genesis Invitational so glad to have you with us here on the round table Chris Bree will gray our leader and Ben everal where in the world is Ben everil he’s been in Vegas he’s been in Phoenix

He’s been in La uh Ben where are you yeah I’m just above the first hole I’m going to try really carefully here to show you but where there’s that uh first hole here at Riviera ready to rumble for another huge week there are worse spots to to hang

Out for sure than the the porch a top the first tea at Riviera so uh try not to you know get too much sun in your eyes there we got to talk about tiger we got to talk about Best Bets long shots all of it let’s start with Tiger Woods

Guys and were you realistic ically believe him making bets on tiger any kind of prop bet you want to do anything to win plus 12,500 pretty large I know but where will would you say is the line you would set for betting tiger realistically and what he could do

Positive this week uh are we going to keep scrolling to a top 40 option here maybe that that might be the that might be the spot uh listen we we’ve got to do a little bit of math this week 70 man field not everyone is going to make the

There is a cut but it’s a thin one you’re going top 50 in ties plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead so conceivably you could have a situation where only a handful of guys missed the cut I maybe you could talk me into looking at that top 20 Market but

Realistically I think Tiger’s probably going to start a little slow and keep in mind this is a course where he has not had much success historically he’s never played any other event more times than he has this one without winning so uh even in the best of times it was not a

Course where he was really having a great run so I would I would need a little bit more uh than the top 20 to really get interested this week Ben you don’t think top 20 that is the key that will mention there the fact that this is

One of the courses that he has not won at he’s played the most times here without a win of any other course on the PTA tour gez I would love to see it I’d love to see him up there in that top 20 I don’t know if I can advocate for it

Though I’m with will you might want to scroll down to the next 30 or 40 uh for it to be really a chance uh look I want to see it if you want to have some if you want to have a little bit of fun and have something to really cheer for okay

Maybe look at that top 20 but there are some stud players here this week a lot of whom have been playing their way into form uh Tiger has been playing at home so as much as I’d love to see him play awesome and love to be proven wrong I’m

Not going to Advocate anyone putting on the hard earned out there on the T have fun watching them and we’ll see what happens that’s the moral of the story plenty of props for Tiger by the way first round birdies over unders so many things like that if you want to check

Out the odds markets there let’s do this guys instead of looking at the normal odds of the top odds Getters let’s put some stats involved here as well because it’s the first time really all year we’re seeing so many guys play this event every year year after year here

Are your well it’s actually 5 to eight here’s one to four right here sheffler maroy havland and uh Xander schaa your top four odds Getters I’m going to get out of the way here I’m going to hang up and listen and let you guys debate this

Entire thing of any of these four guys that you think C eye a little bit of red light green light here Chris I like the uh the the setup here the first thing that pops to to my eye is to see that Rory maroy is losing Strokes on The Greens at Riviera

These are tough greens uh historically that the PO it can get tricky but I’m surprised to see with so much green Elsewhere on the board that he struggled um with with the Putter and maybe that’s a big reason why he’s at a bunch of top

10 and and not a win I will I’ll throw this over to Ben with a a moderate take this isn’t a hot take but uh I’m out on maxom this week the guy has been lights out for the last several years I think 14 straight rounds he has been inside

The top 10 on the leaderboard at Riviera but his recent form is not there I think that this is shaping up to be a week where everyone talks themselves into making a play on Max home at really short odds or a really high price in DFS

And I don’t know that the game is going to translate for another year there’s no such thing as locks or automatic plays especially at a course that’s as fickle as Riviera so I think that the the price is is time to sell high on Max Homer I

Wanted to argue against you this week will but you’re 100% right in my mind I mean Max Homer has not been playing well at all uh yes he’ll have the familiarity of being here yes he’ll essentially fire up because he’ll have a little chip on his shoulder wanting to win this again

Like he mentioned and having played so got so close last year but at at plus 18800 no thanks I mean I I reck’s going be double that before you start thinking about it given the the current form um now look if he goes out and has an

Awesome first round and and looks the goods then then okay maybe I can be talked into he turning it around on the spot but I don’t think you’re getting any value with his current form and what you see there I know the stroke’s going to pointing at us I know it’s screaming

And I think that that’s going to get everyone in on him I’m going to be the one that sits back and waits and sees how Max is playing after watching him in person last week and not being impressed at all yeah I’m taking all three of those

Guys that Chris has lined up here on the graphic before I’m taking home give me JT give me Colin morawa give me pck can’t lay and I’ll leave Max home on the bench this week okay go back to that first page go back to that first page

And you got Scotty shefer um and you talked about Rory’s putting on the greens well look one of the things I’ve noticed here is it’s not necessarily a week where the best Putters on tour are up there because of the bumpy po Etc but you do have to put well when you play

Here you have to avoid three puts I think I looked at the last 10 winners and all put together they only had nine Tre puts across all those 10 years um all all those players so including a few of them with zero three puts and a few

Of them with just one three put obviously so you have to avoid shopping it around on the Riviera greens um and we look at Mr Sheffer I’m still worried about that before we get into picks will do you think there’s a reason no one’s really talking about Victor hin right

Now he has played less rounds than most these guys at Rivier it’s been three for him it’s been basically five for everybody else The Last Five Years on this staff but Victor hlin the stats say pick him with why not though I mean I think Victor hin has

Been noticeably cool out of the gates in 2024 it seems like his his game that that took him to the FedEx Cup victory last uh fall is not quite there early in in 2024 so it’s maybe a waitand seee approach for a lot of folks with havin

Knowing that he does have the game to play well at World Class events and world class courses like Riviera but given the that the star power around him is playing well already has a win on the DP World Tour Scotty cheffer was right in the mix last week Sam Burns has put

Up some really impressive stats and finishes to start the new year even though we’ve had a lot of long shot winners there have been some big names that have put together strong play and strong finishes Victor Holland is not among that group he had that WD before the tournament started last week in

Phoenix so he was not a part of the the fun that Ben and I experienced out in Scottdale but uh I I think that it’s not going to take much form to turn things around for havin in terms of public sentiment but for right now a lot of

Folks want to see it before they’re buying in speaking to his Cy Shane night over a coffee this morning uh saying that yeah look it’s been a little bit of a slow start but they feel like he’s starting to build um obviously he’s not

Going to say not to not to get on the the Victor hland train at this point but I just got the feeling that that you know they’re still the best is still to come perhaps in the next few weeks after this one so while that is the case um

I’m I’m holding off on Victor to see how things go there’s irony in the next segment guys cuz we’re looking at the stars and their odds we’re going Best Bets Ben and explain to me why you’re going minus 200 on a Best Bet yeah look I’m because because here’s

The thing I’ll give you the he can’t win he’s not going to win but he’s going to be in the mix right like here’s the thing like I watched that uh again I watched that PA around very closely in Phoenix and you know we have this big

Debate amongst the golf cre is is he an assassin is he a killer is he the type that can you know just take a tournament by the scru of the neck and win it in these moments I’m not sure he is I think he’s a dep by paper cut type of guy I

Think if he’s out in front he’s just going to grind you into the turf and beat you but if he’s in the mix he hasn’t proven necessarily that he PCT can hold up I mean this is a guy who was supposed to be uh the winner last week

When he took the lead on Sunday and was unable to hold it up a three on a on a par five when he had a makeable eagle I’ve seen him gring this morning on the Rivier practice pting green here uh I think he’ll be in the mix on his ball

Striking alone but I’m desperately worried that that can hold up down the stretch when it needs to and so I’m taking him for the top 10 because I think that that’s almost a lock we know he’s going to be up and about there just by the fact that he’s striking it and

Striping it better than most players ever have you know tiger esque in his prime in terms of the irons and off the te but that putter is a definite worry so you know while I think he’s an absolute certainty being being the not happy with him being a winner I’m

Still slapping Ben’s wrists for taking a minus 200 pick for this segment but that’s okay for for for bankroll management but uh I will Echo those thoughts listen we were both both Ben and I were in Phoenix last week and we were surprised to see that Sheffer had

Positive Strokes game putting it’s like man if he just has a decent week on the greens he’s going to be right there it felt like he was going to win that event for a lot on Sunday and then in the blink of an eye 13 14 15 three holes he

Lost 2.7 Strokes gain putting and that’s all it takes and and that little stretch is never very far away it seems for Scotty Sheffer on the greens given that he’s so strong te to Green especially with the irons you know he’s going to be in the mix but when you’re trying to

Look at such short prices in the outright Market it does to Ben’s Point scare you a little bit because those little five and six Footers can add up real quick for him all right what about you will who’s your best bet this week uh we’re winding down uh for the

End of the West Coast Swing Chris and so I’m running out of chances uh to nail down where exactly T feno is going to be I I went to the well with him I believe it was the MX very top 10 he cashed for me so I’m going to try and bring back

Those vibes it’s hard to know when he’s going to shine in terms of a victory but I do think that he is going to be Rock Solid this week for a top 10 at plus money Ben plus 240 not minus 200 uh a runner up it it still astounds me a

Little bit that he didn’t win in 21 when Max beat him in the playoff it really felt like he had that tournament won he had another runner-up finish a couple years prior to that and and I want when I’m looking at this course and this tournament I need guys that hit it far

Off the tea there are so many of those Force carries at Riviera whether you’re trying to cut the corner on the long Par Four you’re trying to get around the bend on 11 to get there in two you have to be able to to just hit it long and

Carry a long distance off the teaming that’s not rocket science on the PJ tour but especially this week at this event if the weather comes up if it starts playing a little bit cooler a little bit longer I need someone like feno that has that extra gear off the te he’s shown it

Here before I think he’ll show it again we talk Strokes gain te to Green a lot like most weeks it’s a big factor but this week the actual I guess the lean is towards the distance of the te rather than the accuracy uh into the greens

Right like it’s it the te green is the whole game but more importantly like will said it’s the distance here so the big bombers are definitely guys that you have to look at they could just smash it out there and then work away from that point uh look Tony is definitely one to

Keep an eye on see I possibly could have gone back to a well too myself and put Xander shl in this top 10 spot but as you guys know I told him he’s dead to me until he actually does it actually wins here so we’ll see how he goes uh up here

This week but Tony he should finish in the top 10 let’s see if he can do it I am going back to willwell for my top 10 his winner last week was Cameron young I’m going to go Cameron young top 10 plus 250 I think he’s close to playing

His best golf and he has the most Strokes game on this course of anybody playing Al be it only two rounds okay the inside job I swear it’s not an inside job here on the long shot because you guys ironically it wasn’t a coincidence or it was a coincidence I’m

Sorry both picked Nikolai hoard Ben you start why hoard is your long shot he smashes it and and he’s put off stes Game T green like I mentioned he’s right up there on the PJ tour in stats I know it’s his first year it’s a small sample

Size uh but I think he can absolutely belt the ball down across Riviera and you know you know we’re obviously only looking at guys plus 5,000 or above and he just jumped out at me as an absolute stud in the making everyone forgets about him a little bit because of uh Oar

Or abag or whatever we’re calling him now uh so I think I’ll go to his European teammate here to surprise and he’s the type that that could sort of really put the hammer down and actually take it from day one here so we’ll see

How he goes maybe we spent a lot of time with the Danish Consulate in Arizona last week I don’t know who’s to say uh I I will Echo Ben’s points I I think that this is a price grab for me I I don’t know you know we have our our Line in

The Sand for this long shot segment is is plus 5,000 or higher 50 to1 I don’t think Nikolai hoard is going to be in that zone for much longer he’s put up some really good numbers some really good results primarily on the DP World

Tour the more he plays in the US on the PJ tour this year the more likely days he’s going to spike a result and it’s not going to take much to get him closer to where his friend ludvig let’s say is is trading in the the markets maybe plus

2,000 plus 3,000 things like that so it’s hard to win on this course in your first trip I believe uh Ben’s friend Adam Scott was the last to do it back in 2005 as a debutant but I do think that Hoy guard fits the description of a

Player who should play well here and again the plus 5500 is not going to be around very long for him given how well he has played and how well I expect him to play heading into the spring and summer I wasn’t going to make you Lobby

On your pick for hoard as a long shot Ben I am going to make you Lobby on your pick for Adam Scott as the winner of this week go two time Champion two time runner up and five extra top 15s here at Rivier he knows this course better than anyone in

The field including tiger I’d say um just the fact that he loves it here has always loved it here the grass the K is something he grew up on uh he’s used to playing well amongst that sort of grass and he also puts well on these greens

Which is something he doesn’t do in his larger body of work uh I believe I it’s a while back now before he won the 2020 version uh that I looked into his Strokes gain stats and he basically was inside the top 25 every time he played

At Riviera and that is why he plays so well here he knows these greens he can handle the bumpy power While others get annoyed with it he he Embraces it and look a little sneaky top 10 last week did not many people noticed out there in

Phoenix and I know he was just gearing himself up to come here and take down all the big dogs right over my shoulder here so Chris uh Ben blacklisted Xander shley a couple weeks ago and I am yes and and I am borderline blacklist for

Patrick Klay this is it this is it for me for a while with Patrick Klay I tried at Pebble I knew that he was having his struggles in the final round at the American Express and at Tory Pines he was the betting favorite heading into the second round uh and then the weather

Got in the way he ended up t11 uh didn’t really finish that strongly in in the third round so we’re going to try one more time because he was third here last year he led the field in Strokes gain to Green he’s a UCLA guy very familiar with

The course and the area everything is lining up I am concerned with how well he or how not well he has played in the final round and I’m going to try one more time here Patrick because there are just too many boxes that are getting

Checked for for me not to think that a player of his caliber is going to get a win soon he tends to thrive more on the west coast versus as we head closer to Florida uh so I don’t know the next chance I’m going to have to pick Patrick

Hlay with as much confidence as I have right now but I will tell you this much if he’s T3 going into Sunday and then Fades to T12 it’s going to be a long time before I pick him again let’s be I was going to say go Ahad I was just

Going to jump in on that like all the stats pointed to can’t lay for me in Pebble so I was heading that way didn’t work out all the stats pointed to JT last week so I headed that way it didn’t work out and I like the look at Klay and

The statistical stats again this week I’m out I’m not getting in on the guy that’s supposed to win I’m going for the Aussie I’m going with the gut everything you everything you guys just said means pick Victor havlin cuz that’s the guy nobody’s picking and you just confirmed

That the last two weeks what I was going to say will was you got to be fair to yourself because Patrick kentley is an early in the year kind of golfer and a late in the year kind of golfer so you can write him off if he doesn’t play

Well this week but please go back to him in July or August is that is that fair enough to say the pencil will’ll have an eraser so we we’ll be able to make some adjustments down the line but there will definitely be a a line through the book

After this week if things don’t pan out all right that’s the golf bet Round Table Ben you were so quiet this week because you had to be uh get a little Rowdy next time not so much Phoenix Open Rowdy though okay well I’ll be getting a

Little Rowdy when I guy watch toer play some golf it’s always fun and the crowd will definitely be behind him let’s hope let’s hope he has decent week and hopefully sticks around for the weekend because that’ll just make the crows even more impressive here can’t wait see you next time