Pat is joined by Daniel Racz and Kyle Dvorchak to discuss the newly launched LegUp best ball rankings for Underdog’s Big Board. They discuss some of their biggest bull stances, including continued excitement for Jaylen Warren, and the potential for Jaleel McLaughlin to become the next Warren.
They also discuss major fades like Saquon Barkley and Tony Pollard, and Daniel shares how he talked Pat out of targeting Marvin Mims again. They then dive into the rookie class, highlighting key targets like Drake Maye, Troy Franklin, and Jonathon Brooks.
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00:00 – Intro
01:20 – How are Pat, Daniel, and Kyle transitioning to 2024 best ball before the Super Bowl even kicks off?
03:08 – How to attack the first round in early best ball contests? Breaking down how the rankings are formed.
05:50 – Why is Legendary Upside low on Kyren Williams and high on De’Von Achane?
15:22 – Breaking down the advancement of The Big Board, is week 17 the only thing that matters again?
17:07 – Why is Legendary Upside higher on Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, Jaylen Waddle, and Keenan Allen than market?
27:18 – Thoughts on Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, Terry McLaurin, and Cooper Kupp going into 2024.
33:08 – How to decipher the QB rankings and how to approach in pre-draft.
35:02 – “We nailed it” – Kyle on TE rankings.
37:17 – Has George Kittle dropped off due to age and other teammates? Are his potential spike weeks worth it?
43:07 – The Broncos RB that Pat is targeting.
47:58 – The Jets RB Pat loves that is not Breece Hall…
49:20 – Legendary Upside how 34 spots ahead of ADP on this gross RB.
50:50 – How to attack the Colts WR room.
53:55 – Looking at the Steelers RB room, Legendary Upside isn’t down on Najee Harris?
58:10 – Biggest fades in the Big Board, down on Jonathan Taylor?
1:04:45 – Rapid fire on the “dead zone” RBs that Legendary Upside is down on and the one we are not.
1:15:00 – Low on RBs with uncertain futures, Josh Jacobs, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard.
1:22:57 – How to approach free agent RBs, looking at TJ Hockenson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
1:31:12 – Thoughts on Troy Franklin, Keon Coleman, and Jonathon Brooks.
1:37:45 – Take chances on the incoming rookie WRs and the rookie QB that is undervalued.
1:41:18 – Daniel gives his 3 “do not draft” players including two players Leg Up was high on last year.
#bestball #underdog #fantasyfootball
Welcome to Legendary upside podcast my name is Pat carine today I am joined by Daniel Raz and Kyle dorek and we are talking about rankings Big Board rankings for underdogs Big Board tournament I did not want to be talking about 2024 season long rankings uh this early we’re recording this uh on the
Sunday before the Super Bowl um I’m going to I’m going to put it out on Monday to coincide with the launch of these rankings but yeah it’s the Super Bowl is still a week away and we’re already talking about 2024 uh this is this is what
Underdog has done to us this year but didn’t want to leave all the subscribers hanging so got the rankings out there we’ve been drafting off of them we’ve been tweaking them feeling pretty good about uh about the rankings had to do a ton of uh condensed rookie research
We’re going to dive into the rookies in a big way in this podcast talk about where we have all of them ranked some of our biggest stances some more biggest Fades but before we do that guys how you doing doing great nothing I’d rather do on February 4th than talk 2024 basball
Gone are the days of betting on Pro Bowl DFS and just printing money and into rest and Power King rest and Power King Daniel aren’t you in like Europe or something you’re traveling and have graciously taken the time to again to degenerately talk about basketball when I planned a weekend trip to the
Netherlands and Amsterdam the thing really want to do is just talk about 2024 best ball happier I didn’t know you were in the neets oh man have another day here so life is good can’t complain okay H uh Kyle how you been you’re actually you’re at least in your normal
Your normal apartment right I am in my normal apartment though I did just get back from a trip to the mountain so I’m not that far from Daniel but it’s impressive mid mid vacation at least I ended mine immediately I was like all right let’s get back to gambling
Folks um yeah so we have these rankings which I’ll I’ll pull up now um and yeah the the top guy on the list Christian mcav not going to surprise anyone and I would say in general uh we are pretty close to ADP in this column here you can see the
Difference from ADP um not a ton of differences in the first round this is how we played it in best bu Mania and how I would generally prefer to play it um because you know that you get kind of one opportunity to to get these guys and you know I think if
You’re having a portfolio approach to to this tournament or to any of these tournaments it’s nice to have exposure to all the first round guys provided that it’s at least somewhat efficient and I think that it is like I was honestly pleasantly surprised because I don’t necessarily want to be taking huge
Stances in round one that my rankings aligned with like the first draft that I put together aligned with um the ADP like pretty nicely so I you know I guess you would expect that these are all the the kind of clear top names here yeah these are the easy ones we
Kind of expect the market to get them relatively right our big stances uh they don’t you don’t have to wait too long to get some big stances but they don’t come quite this early yep uh I would say the first guy that I start to get a little
Bit queasy about is Kiren Williams uh He Is We we have him 1.3 picks behind ADP which you know isn’t crazy but um as I said we would kind of like to be with the market here that’s the first place we get off uh with the market and then the Devon
Anan uh we bullish on and I have them in the pure pure ranking and as a reminder or if you’re unfamiliar with the rankings process there’s a a pure ranking which is not designed to be like the real ranking I’ve had people ask like just give us the pure ranking like
The pure ranking is designed to be cut with ADP and produce an actionable rank um and occasionally the pure ranking is like I’m doing I’m in there doing stuff where I’m like yeah I’m Gonna Bump this guy up above this other guy because like I like him but I know that it won’t
Matter and then Daniel and Kyle like why do we have this guy ranked so um so they’re not like designed they’re truly not designed to be Dro P rank are meant to work exclusively in tandem with formulas we have to have it interact with the the market the way
People are feeling they’re not they’re not even how we truly feel about players in a sense because like we know exactly the result that will happen when the it interacts with the market in the sense of like we have some respect for the market and we know how that interaction
Works when we’re working within the spreadsheets so like we’re in our mind saying like I know this number will produce this outcome and that’s the outcome I I roughly want right right so anyway so there’s we’ve got the kind of the pre-cut with ADP ranking in that
Ranking Kiren Williams is at 13 and Anan is at 14 for me um and that’s actually how it spits out so you guys are seeing the uh the in this case the ADP is not cutting it enough um not enough you’re seeing it’s not hiding what we have
Behind the scenes is what I’m trying to say so this this is maybe the first spot where we’re taking any kind of stand we’re a little bit behind on Kiron a little bit ahead on Anan you guys have any thoughts on that yeah I remember
That a few weeks ago in January we were talking about where we thought early ADP set up and how Kiren was probably projecting to be one of the easier Fades with us think he’d be somewhere between seven and 10 by ADP and we thought yeah that’s probably wrong he should probably
Be closer to the onew turn but ideally an early second round pick and lo and behold the market to its credit early by ADP at 11.7 it’s barely rich but to the point that I can’t argue it much Kyle what do you think yeah I’m probably fine
I don’t I don’t even know if I feel it’s that rich like Kyon graded out really well not Elite but really well in the rushing metrics I think the thing that Pat’s uh like running back model is going to downgrade him in is his pass catching work which like yeah he’s not
Really a special pass Catcher And he doesn’t see a ton of pass catching he actually comes out as bad as a pass catcher like yards per route run you look at you know he’s just yeah so that is a bit of a concern purely from a what can this guy do
Wellp but from like a holistic sense his role last year was I mean it was literally like in terms of expected fantasy points it was just second to mcaffrey he was that good in terms of how much he was used whether it came from passing or rushing uh like maybe no
One for passing stuff no one’s challenging for passing stuff no one’s challenging for goal line work they used him in an elite role at the goal line and the offense was honestly the offense looked like better than it did in the Super Bowl run this past year like
Adding puka and made it look significantly better in my opinion the big sweat is that if we see Stafford start to fall off again which he appeared to do two years ago even when cup and him were healthy he did not look great or the other threat would be do
They add a running back that can just take some work away because he’s not special I think he’s good between the tackles and like you said he’s nothing really to write home about as a pass catcher he was a good pass catcher in college but like we have NFL data saying
That maybe that’s not so accurate but the role as a whole is I mean it’s the second best in the NFL it was last year at least yeah the entire thesis with Kiren being a fine player in the best role you’d ideally like to wait till
After for agency and the draft to load up on that player because if the thesis is about the role and the two place where his role can get severely threatened come in the next few months and it’s tough for me to see his ADP climbing more than to 10 or 11 I think
There’s almost no chance he jump skbs or Robinson it’s probably a player I’d like to be a little lighter on pre-draft than my total portfolio because we’ll either get some information that plausibly can only lower his ADP or keep it the same but with the information that they
Didn’t use significant Capital to add competition yeah that’s a great Point like if we were sitting here in August and you know they’re resting Kiren with the starters obviously and you know it’s like there’s really no one behind him then I think we probably have him up
From here a little but there’s a long way to go before then and you know this was a guy that was going undrafted in a lot of bb leagues like he did get all the work and everything and he is good but I don’t think he’s like a special
Running back I think he’s kind of in that like Josh Jacobs style mold where he does everything pretty well if you want to give this guy all the work he’s going to uh you know be an awesome fantasy asset but there are reasons why you might not want to as an NFL franchise
Just like load this guy up with everything I also think the thing with Kiren that concerns me even if this was August is that like if aan gets 12 touches I’m like awesome that’s what I signed up for if Kiron gets 12 touches I’m screwed you know sure he can get
There on touchdowns he has such high touchdown Equity but like the scenarios where he’s getting 12 touches it’s like I’m worried about what that means about his goal line work um I just think he’s not you know you’re not you wouldn’t have been screwed at his old ADP but if
You’re drafting him at the onew turn and he’s getting like 12 touches maybe because he had a hamstring thing and they’re you know they’re try so it’s just like he’s he’s more fragile in the sense that like because I think that this also goes to the receiving element
Because he’s not like a special receiving player there’s not scenarios where like they just kind of are mixing him in while he’s like fighting through an injury like you know obviously mcaffrey is mcaffrey but part of the reason why he’s so awesome is that were
He to be nursing something and be on the field for only half of his normal snaps he’d still be a pretty awesome fantasy back because of that receiving ability um so anyway that’s one reason I just get nervous about paying full price for kirn but with these rankings you’ll
Still get a fair amount of them do we want to go on to Devon hn now and why we’re pretty B yeah yeah why why are we high on HM okay I have one nice stat that I think illustrates just how special a rookie season we had if we
Look at all rookie running backs since 2000 to record at least 5.5 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns so pretty lofty but then again hn had 7.8 yards per carry and if you were to look at seven 6.5 yards per carry you’re not finding any historic there’s no one there’s no
One there because it has never been done but 5.5 yards per carry at least 10 total touchdowns 2017 Alvin Kamar 2007 Adrien Peterson 2006 morice Jones Drew 2002 Clinton poris pretty pretty good as Larry David would say that’s a group you would probably want to be in on at almost any
ADP and that feels like the player that if we’re trying to then already think of 2025 ADP could be a top three five pick yeah I mean he’s he’s like a major candidate to be an early part of the first round pick in 2025 he’s you think he has a decent path
To like like he can’t the thing is can he see more than 12 carries like I do think he probably succeeds on 12 carries we know like one I was G to say we’ve seen him do it before in games we also saw him not play a bunch of games as a
Rookie because of you know because of his workload as in that’s what got him hurt the touches are what eventually got him hurt and guys who don’t see the ball a lot tend to not he would be obviously he’s going to be a historical outlier
But like can he continue to be such a historical outlier in the one sense of being as efficient as he was or in a different sense of let’s assume he’s not going to be the most efficient running back in the history of the NFL again
Even if he is up there if he doesn’t do that we probably need some more touches and there are almost no running backs as light as he is to ever see as many touches yeah he’s never going to be a Workhorse and were like Mike McDaniel to
Get fired I would panic but you know this is a this is not a dynasty take this is a a season long take and you know McDaniel’s pretty safe um so for this year so yeah I mean I I think if I’m like getting the 12 touches 15 touches
Would be pretty sweet but maybe we don’t get quite there um I do think that he can be extremely efficient because of the scheme um because of like he is he is super talented even though he is lightweight he’s like a traditional running back and sort of skill set as
Well he’s not just like a scatback type um so you know you also have the potential for them to add a back which is a little concerning but less concerning given that we’re already kind of making a bet on players not going to have a ton of touches and then um you
Know there’s a chance chance that he’s just sharing the back field with with moster as well who’s like 30 going on 32 I think so yeah it’s definitely like it’s a weird pit it’s he’s such a strange archetype it’s not this is nor guy he’s not an archetype as a thing
There’s never been he’s not an archetype there’s never been a one he’s literally the most efficient like yards per carry back in the history of the NFL on 100 carries already I believe I think the only guys who have ever come close are like Michael Vick Lamar Jackson type
Players and in terms of like the fantasy bet since 2001 player at his weight has had 200 touches in a season which is not a ton of touches uh it was war dun who did it like eight freaking times he did so many times but no one else has ever
Looked like him in good ways and in bad and that makes it a really weird bet to place but like I you know I I wrote him up I was just writing about the the rookie class and I was like at the end of the day if we know someone’s like a
Superstar level Talent I’m willing to let a lot of the rest of the stuff figure itself out and and like given how good he was as a rookie like I’m pretty scared when I dropped 188 pound back in the first round roughly in the first he’s just outside the first round but
When he’s that good man you can only be so scared well put yeah I do think like this tournament you know is it’s the same tournament we always talk about with Underdog stuff where this is actually three out of 12 advance in round one and that’s one out of 10 one
Out of 10 through week 15 and 16 and then it’s a 558 person final I think so this is I think even like in a weird way like more than than best Ball Mania because the finals bigger it’s easier to advance through all three rounds to get
To the final what are you drafting you’re drafting a week 17 single week lineup That is what this tournament is it’s a single week that you’re looking looking to score points in you have to get there you have to qualify to to have the chance for those
Points to matter but Anan as a single week bet is I think extremely enticing you know because he can because he is it’s like a robust bet like he can get there on limited touches if we’re wrong and he gets more touches than any of us expect like oh man you know and
How do you how do you feel like I had aan on some on some week 17 uh final rosters this year he didn’t he didn’t do much but I felt really good heading into that week and I would run that back you know like I want I want a guy like aan
With his massive ceiling the kind of like you had to have it uh you know he can access that you had to have it kind of scoring so that’s I think one reason to be high on him as well let’s go to some of the other um we
Can be a little bit more rapid fire I would say with some of these other stances so um we have three wide receivers that we are higher on than Market uh these guys all have adps within the top 40 but three guys that we’re higher on Rashi rice we have a
Little bit of a stance on not massive but we’re 4.6 uh spots ahead of ADP on we also have uh tank Dell who we are um tank Dell we are nine spots ahead of ADP on and then Jaylen W we’re also nine spots ahead of ADP on and Keenan Allen
As well and Keenan Allen that’s another good one we’re 11 spots ahead of ADP on him as well so thoughts on this group kind of in that like end round two round three range where we’re we’re taking a stance on these wide receivers I feel really good about these
Especially so I was I was uh you know Rashid rice is really weird he’s actually kind of in the sort of way where we talk about Devon Anan there are very few players that really look like Rashid rice did this past year I think he had a 5.2 ADOT in the regular season
That was the lowest since Jarvis Landry I think in 2014 yet he had the second highest yards after the catch per reception that PFF has ever tracked I think their data is like 17 years old now he he doesn’t really like a guy with a 5.2 ad out doesn’t look like a fantasy
Wide receiver one but a guy who’s Elite after the catch and not only that but like we also see some Z flower sort of scheme stuff for like wish we push the ball down the field more but Rashid rice was Elite efficiency wise too he wasn’t just compiling he was Elite efficiency
Elite after the catch earned a very meaningful percent of his team’s targets and he plays with Patrick Mahomes and he’s entering the second year like we talk about Anan like oh how like how worried can you be when we know h CH is a superstar I don’t know if we know
Rashid rice is a superstar but we know relative to the talent on his team he is so much better than every one of these guys how worried can we be about his ADOT when he is a target hog for Patrick Mahomes like I’m just not GNA be that
Worried he has one red flag he does not move the ball downfield I’m willing to not write off that red flag but I’m willing to say like it’s a red flag and a sea of other green flags I’m going to generally go with the sea of green flags the rir
Bet as well strikes me as like a classic year two breakout bet in a way that may seem off to hear that because like he kind of broke out as a rookie but when you look at his first read targets per route he was at 14% this past year
That’s not high you know the guys like AJ Brown and uh some of the kind of the first read dominators they’re like up in the like 21 22% range that that 14% range is like like Jerry Judy was at 15% so it’s not like it’s not particularly impressive it’s not bad and
That’s part of the reason that he was able to break out as a rookie is that he became a big enough piece of the offense um in terms of like the play calling right but when you say that Rashid rice was earning a lot of targets I think
That he was literally earning those targets again that that’s one reason why I think the ad dot was low is that like he’s kind of that outlet guy for Mahomes as he scramble around looking for guys oh God that you know the primary re hasn’t gotten open Tris Kel seconds mvs
Still isn’t open what do I do what do I do what do I do here’s Rashid rice or Travis Kel’s getting doubled and he’s not beating those doubles whatever here’s Rashid rice I think you were getting a fair amount of that from Rashid rice as a rookie one thing that I
Look for is guys that are overperforming what you would expect based on their first reads because as long as they’re getting sufficient first reads sufficient targets they’re big enough piece of the team’s offense to begin with that’s a spot in the next year teams are reviewing the tape and they’re
Like oh maybe we should call plays with Rashid rice is the first read a little bit more often that’s a that’s actually something I think that can boost for him and maybe the end result is that he just kind of gets a similar role to what he
Had this year but I think like he’s he it’s like it’s not fragile I think what he did as a rookie is not fragile he can actually see an improvement in terms of how much the team is setting him up for targets and he has the ability to earn
Targets from moles even when he’s not the first read on the play he plays with Patrick Mahomes like this is a pretty safe bet I think uh in the middle of the second round yeah I Echo all those sentiments and sometimes it does feel feel weird chasing like projectable
Volume because everyone else is bad but this is like the best situation to do that and we have a very strong rookie year with the opportunity to get better as you just wonderfully articulated and I think that the market will catch up I think his ADP closes at anywhere from
Like 14 to 18 rather than towards the end of the second round uh tank Dell jayen Wadd Keenan Allen were the other guys that we Magic here wad I’ll briefly say just go look at his efficiency I I know it’s gonna I know it sucked last year I know it’s
Gonna suck this year when Tyreek Hils takes all the targets but eventually like this guy’s good and contingent value is actually I think a thing here as well to consider like if Hill were to miss time like Wadd could absolutely smash um but also like he’s a really
Good receiver he’s in a good offense that values him the quarterback play sufficient iy good I think the single week ceiling is there we kind of ran bad we’re going back to the well um yeah as Sam Sherman said W probably led the league last year in games where he had
Some mysterious first half ailment that caused him to miss between one and three quarters of games and I think that that’s something like if you’re testing you’re probably unlikely to assume that to be highly correlated in a player year-over-year and it’s probably more variance run bad I think that the reason
Wadd underperformed last year don’t justify an ADP in the fourth round this year for such a talented player in a friendly offense with extreme contingent upside and it shocks me that the market has that one so wrong it’s r that I think that they’re just absolutely wrong
And I think that they’re at least a roundoff on his ADP I I think they are at least a roundoff as well we actually we have a cap on how much we can kind of jump above the ADP W is comfortably being hemmed in by that cap um yeah I mean I I
Would honestly take Wadd a few picks behind where I took him last year I think he like he from the player showed us extreme efficiency again so I’m not like I know the results weren’t there fantasy points per game and all that but you got a young wide receiver who’s like continually flashing
Inefficiency uh I’m going to keep betting on that player um tank Dell Keenan Allen any thoughts there now these on feel like more obvious like you know turns out tank Dell was really good last year and his quarterback’s really good and it’s he’s at worst the number
Two receiver on his team like they just don’t have a ton of other competition for targets and he showed an extreme ability to earned targets he also beat the allegations he had in college which like this guy is just so small I’m not sure he can do it he won as an
Intermediate to deep receiver on the outside as soon as he stepped into the NFL like silenced any doubts we had on what his profile would translate to Keenan Allen uh he scores a lot of fantasy points as it turns out he scores way more than wide receiver 18 a fantasy
Points not only show no signs of slowing last year like by some metrics his best season he’s just still really freaking good yep yeah on the Allen front we had a decent conversation just looking at his contract and think what is the likelihood he gets cut because if Kenan
Is not a charger the ADP of 38.7 makes more sense and he would obviously be lower than that but we came to the conclusion that it’s extremely unlikely they have cuddable players in Mike Williams at the exact same position who’s not young in the tooth coming off
A torn ACL and a worse player and they have cuddable defensive players Joey Bosa CLE ma one of the Kendrick’s Brothers the one that didn’t do insider trading I believe and Eric yeah that’s true Eric was not involved in insider trading yeah so Keenan Allen if you were
We’re told he is a charger he should probably be close to the two three turn which is how we’re trying to play him and hoping that in the 95% of outcomes where he remains on the Chargers which he said at the Pro Bowl I have no plans
On leaving which is something that you’d ideally like to hear from your players about whether they’ll be cut yeah and we we looked at the contract he’s he’s due $18 million plus five a $5 million roster bonus which you know so that’s 23 mil he’s worth that
It’s possible that they try to get him to take a pay cut or something and maybe he’s willing to which is why he’s saying I’m not going anywhere I don’t know but also like if he played hard ball like they they probably need to back down because
They cannot go into this season with Mike Williams coming off an ACL and Quinton Johnston and whatever else they they draft but yeah the connection with Herbert is is so awesome so uh I was a little bit nervous about him but you guys has kind of talked me off uh that
Concern a little bit uh Cooper cup Amari Cooper or and uh actually Terry McLaren and DeAndre Hopkins are guys that we’re hire on here not like the typical thing for us I would say like the kind of the maybe Dusty vet group and we’re h on all of
Them all you know all the guys I just mentioned couple or 10 spots higher on Cooper nine um who did I say oh McLaren 7.5 I think maybe with the exception of mclen all these guys like balled out as wide receiver one last year like DeAndre Hopkins dominated the targets I get he
Didn’t have a lot of competition but his team still clearly viewed him is like oh this guy is the only player we should ever throw the football to Cooper cup he was at worst a one like one be sounds like oh he’s the maybe the second
Receiver he his numbers are that of a number one on any other team they throw the ball to two players he’s one of the two and Amari Cooper like true stud number one receiver they all have their warts but sort of like Keenan Allen they
Show us no reason not to believe in them as talents like once they start getting older you understandably say like oh well if there’s a reason to think maybe the cliff is coming I’m totally willing to get out a year early I haven’t seen that with really
Any of these guys like maybe you could say the fact that someone else emerged in Cooper Cup’s absence and then stuck when he was back is a reason to be a little skeptical but like Mark was very skeptical yeah yeah I think Hopkins is the one
That I am like sort of the most surprised at how low he is um like he was pretty good last year and they just brought in a a new head coach who’s going to be I think much more aggressive in how much they pass so and like Burks heading into last year was
Like well Burks might might be a competition with Burke’s bombed you know they don’t have anybody else there and he spent the entire year dominating targets including from will Levis so I don’t know I mean Hopkins is not someone you feel like is gonna absolutely Smash
And be like you know but as part of assembling a a portfolio of of bets where you’re you’re getting enough correct he’s sort of an easy one at this ADP to me where it’s like I’m gonna have you’re kind of getting like a fifth round value but he goes you know he’s
Going to pick 82 so I don’t know I’m I’m I’m a little surprised that there’s not more interest in a guy who and honestly maybe this is just the time of year like he’s going to project really well but we don’t really have this isn’t projection season but
When we get to May and June when there’s actually really good projections out I mean Hopkins is going to project awesome almost no matter how they play the off season because you’re getting that boost in terms of overall passing attempts that will help alleviate any concerns about additional Target uh you know
Target competition unless they like sign like a really big name guy yeah and on Hopkins I think a really nice comp is Mike Evans from last year where every possible red flag was not about the talent of the player and when we’re almost certainly confident in the
Talent of the player in the seventh at the seven turn at this point that’s an outrageous ADP in their new head coach Brian callan’s opening press conference when he was asked about translating what he did with burrow and the Bengals offense he said we did that because it
Worked within the context of that offense so it seems like at least he’s saying the right things about maximizing the talent he has rather than having one archaic system that he’ll Force his new pieces into which is something you always like to hear I mean DeAndre Hopkins going behind Jackson Smith and
Jiga at this point in time by 25 picks if my math is correct when we do projections if anyone projects jsn to out produce DeAndre Hopkins they probably should stop being in the business of projections and again projections aren’t the only reason to play this game and a lot of our edges I
Think towards the end divorced we’re generally a f projections crew but that’s because the market usually bakes in projections in a major way and then we’re kind of going more to the talent but here you’re getting to better on the talent because the projections aren’t baked in
Yeah Hopkins I don’t know where our perer rank is but he’s probably one of the top five within the top 100 players where we think the market is woefully incorrect yeah I would say yeah the top non rookies I think Hopkins is the number two guy that we
Uh in terms of like the ADP value not the raw number of spots but the ADP value that we’re off that we think the market is off on he’s the second uh we’re we’re kind of the biggest second biggest stance on Hopkins of all players um one thing I just want to note
Is that as you go through you may see a fair amount of quarterbacks that we’re ahead of Market on I think that’s kind of a structural thing here where quarterback is a position you need to take care of um or you’re going to be hurting you know I think there’s not a
Ton of guys that you feel really good about late in the draft um because there’s real job security issues for a number of guys who are going to project as starters or probably start but we’re not sure so there’s there’s not like a ton of quarterback there’s not 32
Quarterbacks worth taking um as you can see here we’ve got will Levis a quarterback 29 B knck is quarterback 30 uh we’ll get to the rookies but that’s that’s it I we only have 32 quarterback uh ranked in total in the top 240 and there you just get to the spot
Where like the job security for the end of the season which again is what we’re playing for is so bad that I’m not even sure these guys are worth taking like Bryce young we have a quarterback 28 ahead of 0p because he’s not going to get benched like that’s it’s like hey I
Know he’s starting so something you know but this is the same way you would have taken Kenny picket last year because it’s like he’s unlikely to get benched of course he didn’t play at the year but you know Mason Rudolph playoff Mason Rudolph yeah but you know we got Gino
Smith below ADP because I think there’s legitimate risk of them uh drafting a quarterback and then that quarterback you know not maybe even first round but they’re not tied to him after this year so he could get bench for the last two or three games that’s a catastrophe
Right so yeah that’s the the way we’re thinking through quarterback Baker Mayfield I think is maybe a little riskier for the end of the season than it might feel like right now depending on how they play in the draft Yeah once contract information with Tampa that’ll
Be a big clue on Baker if they give him that’s true three year the Gino contract of last year which I don’t think is out of the realm of possibilities then you’ll feel good just like last year we thought we would move him up if he gets
That contract for sure but we’ to know those contracts before we make the decision and the Market’s allowing us to do that and we can sort of take the players where we have the information available earlier yeah so in general I don’t think we need to get too much into
The specifics quarterback but kind of in the range of guys who there’s there’s some exceptions but generally we’re going to be kind of higher uh in like the quarterback window Sean seagull’s kind of traditional quarterback window we’re we’re generally higher on the quarterbacks there um let’s talk some of these other
Stances let’s talk tight end a little bit Mark Andrews were head of ADP on George KD Trey McBride Dalton concade uh were ahead of ADP on all of those those veterans thoughts on any of those guys I think we nailed it we nailed it that’s it yeah I think preached before
The importance of difference making weekly production because again you’re not trying to win the first 14 weeks you’re trying to advance a team through the satellite structure into week 17 and you want guys that are meaningfully more capable of producing 20 plus point games if that’s
Just your arbitrary number so we want to be probably as a general rule slightly overweight on that cohort and I think we’re doing that I think McBride’s one that ADP is going to rise as a young player there will be some Cardinals hype especially if they get Marvin Harrison
It’s just an offense you want to be in on that’s interesting because like getting Marvin Harrison is sort of one of the risks with McBride that he’s not gonna be a Target Dominator but I kind of agree that if they get Harrison all of a sudden people are
Goingon to be excited about the Cardinals maybe ADP RS yeah they take Marvin Marvin midc maybe you’ve convinced me that that’s how the market would react and then you’re looking at like fifth mid fifth round McBride feels pretty reasonable for how great he was
At the end of last year um I mean with how good he was I’m not too concerned of him fading away even with another awesome player and that’s just making I think the market I think mostly rightfully bullish on that offense I’ve got one off throw out we didn’t mention
It beforehand that uh KD excluding his rookie season his Worst season yards per out run was two years ago his second worst was last year his worst was three years ago like maybe we’re a little bit tied up on how good he was in 2018 1920 he was a lot better those
Years and not to say he’s not great right now but like aging tight end whose worst years have all 2.12 years forever yeah that’s his worst that’s like his second worst year recently okay but that’s really good I mean it’s a testament yeah it was like top five I
Think it was like third or something T like it was tied with McBride but aging receiver who didn’t earn quite the same Target share we’ve seen in years his past aging receiver aging tight end who like I don’t want to say he’s dropped off but like compared to early Seas or
Early career George KD he’s not the same player he’s just that’s somewhat a testament to how good he used to be he’s not that guy anymore I think I I think I’d take McBride and maybe conate over him I’m arguing to move him like three or four
Spots down but thr that one out there I you know what I was on the clock and I draft and I I ended up taking McBride over and we can still be a because like you said K was really good last year he’s like a top five tight end but like
There was a time in my life I was like I’m going to be a contrarian and say he’s better than Travis Kelsey when Kelsey is putting up historic numbers uh Kelsey’s also falling off but I don’t feel like I need to be as high as we are
On him and we can still be above 80P that’s that’s my only quible here see the thing is for me I want to be in on KD especially if have 49ers stuff he’s a priority for me then but um I did just flip McBride over him I think one of the
Things that’s really nice about McBride is that with these Elite tight ends sometimes you’re like K would be kind of the the poster boy for this is that you’re you’re just hoping you get that major spike week and if you do like holy crap like that’s gonna it’s gonna like
Single-handedly Advance the team through one of the the single weeks or potentially win you the final um but McBride still has a really nice ceiling and he’s if he you know if he’s at all doing the target domination thing that he was last year he’s also just hitting your lineup really really consistently
And soow guys who see the ball a lot is they hit your lineup a lot but they also have the chance to go for 12 catches like like volume is both a ceiling and a floor metric essentially and he’s a really good volume earner yeah the one
More Pro K argument I’d make with the ners is eventually I don’t know if they’re going to look at moving auk now but I believe he just played he has his fifth year option left and nothing else after and it’s I guess possible they look to tag him after but if a team
Offers them a first round pick and this off season which I think is like a 5% to 10% outcome where they get that and make the trade but in that world KD becomes infinitely more valuable as he does during a regular season with the contingent
Injury to either Debo and iuk so I think that’s like one feather in KD’s cap until we get to the NFL draft Yeah and another reason to just always be looking to bet on Talent right because KD is he’s super talented maybe he’s falling off a little but um when guys
Are super talented the the path is robust you know um Bree hall right like we we bet on H in a big way Rogers tears his ailly week one and he still gets there because he’s super super talented you have to be right about the talent evaluation but
Like bad players don’t overcome that Superstars overcome that and so with KD if you think he still is a superstar at the tight end position you know if Debo were to miss some time at the end of next year if something happened with iuk I think he’s there but
You know if something were happen happen um that open up additional targets uh if the defense takes a big step back and they just have to pass a lot more right there sort of like kind of the chaos kind kind of works in your favor in some
Ways um when you have a really talented player uh by the way that the sortino ratio concept is kind of what I was referring to a little bit with McBride um the the concept that Sac religious laid out in a recent article on AR upside if you’re unfamiliar with what
I’m talking about I’d recommend checking out his article uh where he laid out this new floor ceiling combo metric I’m going to share a chart here interestingly George K sortino ratio was actually a bit higher than McBride’s but uh McBride I took a major step forward I was gonna say it’s
Probably because the first six weeks of the Season McBride was a parttime player or whatever yeah that’s that’s got to be it I would actually be curious what his was was just down the back half but um yeah he he’s kind of when you get these guys who are in this range you’re
Getting guys that are hitting your lineup every week leaport um you know Hockinson before the injury like they were they were hitting your lineup very consistently but then they’re also giving you the access to ceiling so I think it is really nice to have that and I think McBride is definitely a better
Bet than KD for that and just a really good bet in general um all right any other let’s see any other big big stances we should cover um do you guys have any thoughts on Andrews as I pull up some other stances that we have feels like the he’s still pretty
Good yeah good player he’s still pretty good he’s still pretty good rarely want to be underweight players when I’m that confident in the toal eval but I don’t think I’m going to be meaningfully different than the market this year a couple guys that I’ll note um as as
Players that I’m really targeting in drafts um Jalil mlin is one that I’m really interested in getting you know he’s he’s got an ADP of 163 um I think he he’s more of like an early double dig digits round type of value I think he’s going to be pretty
Clearly the number two there um I think he’s good I’m not sure that the guy ahead of him is that good so uh you know javante is fine but I you know could Jalil take that job by the end of the year I think he could so I don’t know
This this one kind of feels like a layup to me I’ve been kind of hammering Jal mlin as a like that rb4 rb5 type of pick as I’m filling out my uh you know usually hero running back or zero running back rooms um any thoughts on
Him yeah yeah are you just are you you uh do you think like per ry’s cut because unfortunately pery graded really well in like Ys per out run even though it’s not the most exciting pick I think that’s the only concerns that they’re just gonna continue running this three-man backfield but jil’s really
Good I I don’t I don’t want to say he’s better than javante but like it seems very possible that he’s better than javante last year Jalil was 13th in PFF rushing grade eighth in yards after contact per carry third in PFF receiving grade and six in yards per route run
Like he checks all the boxes for a good playmaker running back and maybe javante comes back another year move from the injury and starts to look like the player we thought he was but right now I I don’t know if he’s that player SM is a very serviceable good pass catcher out
Of the back field but he doesn’t offer anything between tackles I think J’s a really good pick but yeah this reminds me a lot of our conversations around a different former undrafted running back of the Pittsburgh Ste Steelers where we didn’t right I’m checking the Sam perine contract first because that is an
Impediment that Jay they can save three M by cutting him yeah I would be shocked if perine was back on that contract given mclin’s emergence but maybe they rework something but it feels really wrong that you can take possibly the best running back on a backfield at pick
One64 and even if the perine impediment is there he should probably be a 12th round pick and if the perine impediment is removed via a cut it’s probably close to a coin flip and saving $3 million which is pretty meaningful at such a low money position like running back so I
Would like slap a Kramer Buy byy byy on Jalil at this price yeah and we talked about the pure rank not always being like the the real rank that’s because like there’s not a reason to take jul mlof when he’s a pick 163 uh you know where we would actually
Like have him ranked but I will share that we the the pure rank on him is pick 114 so we basically think he’s a 10th round pick um I mean that feels like very reasonable to me he’s a really good second-year running back I mean maybe
Maybe we don’t know for sure he’s really good but he flashed some really really good stuff they seem to like him the guys ahead of him are won a cut candidate who’s not very good I he’s fine s Pan’s fine but he’s a cut candidate and uh javante Williams
Who was I would say like always we were like hoping he would kind of emerge as you know a star but he’s never flashed Star level efficiency he’s a great tackle breaker but they didn’t use him a ton around the goal line last year weirdly um coming off that knee injury
Maybe he’s chose more this coming year I hope he does but you know this is one of those back fields is actually pretty up in the air so you know I don’t I’m not saying take Julian mcin in the in the 10th round he comes out here at pick 140 that is where
I would actually take him so I feel like a lot of times when we get these quote ambiguous back fields my general take is like unless there’s some player who’s way more talented the other players let’s just assume the market is overvaluing how random these running back touches can be and that’s probably
True most of the times here we can also take a bet on Talent while also betting on the chaos of an NFL season we’re getting to compound these bets that are typically good ones we want to bet on good players obviously but we know that running back is such a fial position
That just a tweaked ankle from javante can mean jalile breaks out like we get to make a lot of those bets at once for a way too cheap price frankly yep um izy aananda is one that has I I I kind of keep seeing him in my
Rankings and I’ve actually raised him up as I was drafting on these it’s just like man kind of like I like his chances of being the clear number two um behind Bree you know I like him a lot better than like tank bsby uh you know those guy like tank
Bsby I’m not sure he he kind of lost like he entered last year’s the clear number two and then like lost out whereas Izzy was buried and then kind of became the clear number two they cut Michael Carter they cut dvin cook like he looked good he was getting there was
Times where he was getting used uh right in week 17 I think they were they were putting in Izzy at the end when the game was over and it’s like this is nice I’m happy to finally see some of this guy I touted and then before he you know
Became a zero but I really need more breeze so let’s can we get Breeze back out there but I think there you know he’s he kind of earned that role obviously they could bring someone in but there’s a lot of uncertainty in a number of these back fields and uh I
Actually feel fairly good about his chances of holding that number two spot the other guy uh he’s kind of a fun young guy my sanders is a really gross version of this but we are higher than ADP on my sanders as as Daniel Wentz is at his
Name but his contract keeps him yeah uh on the team so we’re 34 spots ahead on mil Sanders but I think a pretty clear number two and you’re hoping for a better offense better coaching Bryce young doesn’t look like an absolute disaster in his second year um and you
Get the contingent value with mil Sanders weirdly I think suddenly and actually a decent pick as chuba hubard now rightfully going well ahead of him yeah a lot of the thesis around hubber last year was just the contingent upside if the starter went down you just have
To reverse the names but the proposition stays the same with Sanders and again it’s not fun but you know that he is like a human on their roster come week one that’s probably bull but like in these pre-draft contests you’re re avoiding roster spots can be huge if I I had 34%
At Perry last year and like he actually did stuff in the final two weeks I think he had a big touchdown week 17 or 18 a last n of my teams made it there but getting guys that have a role that you’re nearly certain in is valuable and
My sanders as much as it like pains me to say backup on the Panthers and the zero RB CID that we never thought we’d have couple other guys to mention on the uh stances here Josh DS we are uh substantially ahead of ADP on Josh DS I’m a little bit I don’t quite
Understand the market on this one with Josh DS versus Michael Pitman I think uh Downs like kind of ate into pitman’s role a little bit kind of towards the end of the season it started to shift back towards Pitman but DS was a rookie and I think had a pretty impressive
Rookie season he also obliterated his knee in the middle of the Season uh an injury that supposedly happened in either training camp or maybe even earlier than that I remember he had a week of full dmps and they were like buddy you are still playing and he
Didn’t play many snaps but like from that day onward his numbers plummeted he was always on the injur his rout rate was never the same and like logically flows that if you’re like physically unable to practice and your team still throws you out there and you’re baile barely able to play I’m
Gonna guess he was not right for the rest of his regular season before that he had an elite rookie season going so like obviously I don’t want to just completely throw out the data of the second half of the Season say like I know what happened I can write it all
Off we don’t but the logic flows that I I want to Discount his fallof in the second half of the season and give him a little more credit for the first half of the season in which he was he was truly El leite I think in his first eight
Weeks he had 40 catches 473 yards two touchdowns like think about if he had gone 80 for like a thousand or 85 for a thousand and a few scores like we would be putting him way up the ranks we’d be saying like is he a breakout wide receiver 2
Candidate which I think he is like so I yeah so I mean he the other thing about Downs is he was a the of prospect that was tough because he did check a lot of boxes you know like early declare breakout um but he’s small and he’s like
Kind of more of a slot guy so it’s like what’s the upside but we do need to consider that he did he was actually like a sneaky s a sneaky strong Prospect the draft Capital wasn’t ideal but then he earns a role right away he impresses um like these are what
Breakouts generally look like you know I know he doesn’t he doesn’t have the size that we’re looking for he didn’t he didn’t finish off the rookie season the way we would have liked but I don’t know I’m I’m pretty into Josh DS he would
Have to move up a lot before we would uh we’d stop being high on him and then Michael Pitman we’ll get to but you know I think it’s I just want to play it through Downs right now if you’re feeling like I don’t want to be out on
The Colts uh offense well Richardson were slightly ahead of ADP on and then Downs would be the the way parot I think just given the prices um last last guy on the stances I will note we are still way above Market on Jaylen waren because
That’s just going to be the way it goes until they finally let Naji Harris walk after his rookie deal expires um and then maybe we’ll be even with ADP when people are drafting him as a you know a fourth round type running back or something um but yeah we’re still still
High on Jaylen Warren we are not baiting Nai um in a big way uh we’re actually 1.6 spots ahead of ADP on Naji here I mean this is kind of like we actually would have had him ranked above this or did have him ranked above this last year
But this feels much more in line with what you’re getting from Naji Harris so I think yeah great if he’s going to go here he’s actually like a pretty good pick um or at least a very very will pick um but Jaylen Warren will were still high on Brian Robinson Jr also
Note uh is the guy that I keep getting sucked in by a really efficient yards per route run Kyle says uh he didn’t run many routes it’s a fluke he’s a Jag uh so far I’m uh refusing to to Bud but did I get you to move down at any point I
Was thought yeah you have I’ve moved him down some I’ve mov yeah I I like the range we have him in I I don’t think he’s a bad pick like just a guy is in like that’s kind of a compliment like there are a lot of guys who aren’t even
Guys and he’s definitely like a top 25ish between the tackles Talent he’s never really been a good receiver but last year legitimately on a relatively small sample of routes did flash a lot I don’t I don’t think that’s going to be sticky in the end for his career but
Like it’s not a Bad Bet to make given that like you know it was terrible last year Tony Pard you know who couldn’t run who couldn’t earn yards on a route to save his life n Harris like you know who could easily be replaced Taj Spears like
There are picks around him that have glaring flaws his glaring flaws that like what if his good stuff isn’t sticky which is not that’s not a bad flaw to have frankly yeah and he also has boost coming his way you know Drake May likely gonna be the quarterback that lands with
With the commanders I think he’s a really strong Prospect um and should be a big boost to the offense he’s on a rookie deal so you know his status with the team is pretty set Anthony uh Antonio Gibson is a free agent that’s in some ways bad you know
Because maybe they bring in another running back but I think it’s also possible they stick with Chris Rodriguez as the number two and yep if he could have a whole back field to himself so I think there’s scenarios where Robinson ends up going in like the fifth round
And we have like none of him yeah classic Dead Zone pick we’re completely out one of our biggest fade stances in best Mania but let’s draft them now and you know that’s kind of my that’s kind of my thoughts um yeah then looping back to Pittsburgh quickly I think we
Identified this I mean if you want any coach to come in there and just have a mudded water backfield boy Arthur Smith as offensive coordinat does a great job in terms of being it’s gonna be tough to predict who gets the work but we’re going to be reasonably confident that
There’s a very large pie of attempts devoted to the Pittsburgh running back room and as long as like Godwin igb isn’t getting the goal line carries he will you know he will one of Nai or Warren has the chance for such a meaningfully outsized positive outcome especially if there’s
An injury to the other and boy it would be fun if it were Jaylen Warren but I think it’s likely it’s na Harris as well too you can get a decent share of both and have overweight positions and just say one of these could be a big win
While the other is a small loss or they’re both small wins I think it’s tough for both to fail at the 78 turn in the Zer RB Target area y yeah they’re both it’s exactly the range where they you know they make sense and I think you
Want you want to be taking both um which feels weird is someone who’s you know been pretty out on Nai since he since I basically learned of him I was like I’m not really that into this guy but uh yeah now I think he’s actually pretty
Well priced um let’s go to some of the fades let’s start with a guy that we were really high on last year burned us Jonathan Taylor um we’re now pretty far behind ADP on Jonathan Taylor 9.3 spots behind ADP uh are kind of one big stand we’re
Bit behind on Nico Collins we’re playing that more through tank Dell I do want to have some Nico but um you know currently one of our a fade we can talk about him more in a minute but Jonathan Taylor um we are pretty far behind on we
Got him at pick 24 he’s going pick 15 thoughts on him I don’t want to trash Jonathan Taylor like I do I you guys you guys just said no basically there’s just five seconds of Silence on Taylor uh no we are not going on the record I want to be
I’m not I’m not going on the record with this conversation I do want to be in on him but like it’s been three years since he’s been what we think of as Jonathan Taylor and in a running back’s career as the NFL has literally told us through
Their spending of their Capital that’s a lifetime like if we didn’t have such fun memories of him previously we’d be saying like oh you know his best season by far like he hasn’t even been close to where he was in 2021 best season fight by far came three
Years ago both as a receiver and as a obviously between the tackles Runner that’s just a profile we’ve genuinely been very profitable in fading I do think he could he could still burn us and but like it’s it’s like the Adam Thelen bet like a most of the time when
You talk about a guy who is past his prime his efficiency numbers have dropped and for running back that happens so quickly that receiver tends to happen a little bit older they look like Allan Robinson right they don’t look like Adam thielen that’s a profitable bet I could see a scenario in
Which Taylor buries me but he would have to reclaim the the sort of talent and efficiency of a player that has been a few years removed from us yeah and also the role is a little Fragile with if Anthony Richardson’s healthy and even if the offens is good a large portion of
The goal line carries will go to Richardson the receiving upload the receiving upside will be capped with such a mobile quarterback so I think it’s a bet that I don’t necessarily want to fade but when the market puts that running back in the top 15 it’s really tough to
Pull the trigger when it’s tough to Envision the legendary upside of that player and I’d rather take you know one of the early second round wide receivers and a six through eight round running back then take the Jonathan Taylor and then have to wish cast Jackson Smith and
Jake B like the last year comparable that Pat gave was you take Tony Pard in early round two and then you were taking Rashad baitman or trayon Burks or even in a better outcome Z flow hours but it’s still tough to win that 2v2 when you’re hitting on the wide receiver at
The same place and then really nailing the running back yeah this is one of the reasons that Zero running back had such a strong year last year is that the 2v2 is like you know it doesn’t it doesn’t really matter if the running back outscores the wide receiver
Because you need more wide receivers in this format than running backs and if you can get a wide receiver who’s also you know in a lot of cases was outscoring the running you know Tony par wasn’t scoring that great um but then you go and you get a seventh round
Running back who’s gonna outscore Johan doson by a lot of points you know or or whoever else or baitman or Burks right guys that we were really high on um because of me um th those running backs you know it’s like Rashad white versus trayon Burks oof you
Know wait oh you on the Burke side that’s not good um and then you can pair that with the wide receiver scoring early um you know and maybe olav kind of turns in a similar season we don’t feel that great about olve you know but if you’re pairing that structurally with a
Running back hit in the seventh round it’s pretty powerful and it’s more powerful than pairing Taylor with that running back hit probably unless you unless you structure the team very specifically um what you can do obviously there are ways to to draft running back early and and build really really strong teams
But that’s kind of generally I think one reason to to be a little bit out on Taylor I I think you know a lot of the red flags that we would talk about with Taylor would be things that we would talk about last year as well but I think
The issue is that like heading into last year you know yeah we had some of the same red flags but we didn’t have him turn in another poor yards per out run season he was at 0 point 86 last year um he was outplayed by Zach Moss for most
Of the year you know we had Anthony Richardson look just as inaccurate as we were worried he would be um and kind of be reliant on rushing in a way that we assumed he would be but then we got confirmation um so it’s like all the red
Flags feel like more locked in and I feel less confident about Taylor in terms of the his ability to kind of overcome the situation uh I feel more worried about his receiving because he early in this career he was actually fairly efficient now we have two really inefficient seasons of
Receiving so and why is his price Rising his price actually higher than it was um like maybe not in the Big Board maybe in the big board he was going around this pick but even before the contract stuff he was late second round last year I
Think he was he opened in the first round last year and I think for the big board was a first round pick then was onew turn and kept falling kept falling and then before the contract stff he was a midc round pick and again we have more
Information to the negative than we do to the affirmative and his price has went up even slightly I think it’s wrong I think that eventually the market will come towards us on this that’s a pretty strong position that I have so I would feel comfortable waiting on Taylor and
Eventually getting him closer to the two three turn if you want to get even let’s go to let’s see um another big fade position that we have so we actually I mean I guess this is pretty on brand we’re pretty low on a bunch of running backs um I’ll just rapid fire
Some of these running backs Travis etn we’re we quite a bit lower on um Isaiah Peko Rashad White saquan Barkley we’re extremely low on um let’s let’s stop there and talk those guys because that’s kind of your your dead zone running backs but not all these guys are even
Going in the dead zone Barkley is uh here at pick 21.6 uh we have him a pick 32 Pacho were 12 spots behind ADP on etn were 12 spots behind ADP on uh Rashad white were 12 spots behind ADP on um so yeah I mean I just think these
Guys they do kind of feel like the classic Dead Zone guys where it’s like we’re not we’re we’re either not that confident about the receiving ability like Peko uh White we think probably is I don’t think anyone would say he’s like a good rusher uh he’s a pretty good
Receiver but God you’re really praying status quo uh you know maintains there etn I think really showed a lot of red flags last year in both receiving efficiency and rushing efficiency got there on on some touchdown uh efficiency which is like the thing I want to bet on
The least the offense I feel a little bit shakier on um I I it feels weird to be like this low on etn given that he one point looked like one of the biggest hits of 2023 but I don’t know pick 31 just feels very bullish for a guy where I’m like I
Don’t really see the path to like a legendary season for him um and then squin I just like fully do not understand uh he is a free agent he’s hasn’t been like that good in years he’s he’s good but he’s not like a superstar level Talent like I mean the efficiency
Does not back back that up at all um since basically his rookie year um and who knows where he’s going to be and even if he’s on the Giants maybe he doesn’t get the massive workload yeah I was going to say if he’s on the Giants that’s probably a negative because the
Best case you’re looking at you know the season from before where it’s fine efficiency on so much volume but if you’re praying for the volume that’s a very thin bet it feels like an ADP of two three years prior where it’s that wrong you know if he hits free agency
And seon’s been very Adam and he wants to be a giant I don’t think that feeling is super reciprocated in the front office it’s very much present in the locker room with how the players rever him but again if they bring him back on a quasi Team friendly deal maybe two
Years that’s not that good for him if he hits free agency then maybe he hits a really good spot but it also could be rough you know rough sledding for all these running backs in for agency and I think he should be like a fourth round pick
Probably I think that’s where we’d all say he should be yeah I I have like should we boost James should we boost James Cook because he’s such a good pick relative to the guys around him like he’s one of the guys like I I could see
How he beats me he was really strong in the effic efficiency metrics on the ground whereas like like you said etn was shockingly inefficient in the advanced metrics or shwi less shocking but also not efficient sequin feels like a bad pick Peko it’s not terrible but
Like I I do not see a legendary season coming from the guy in the slightest like cook is is maybe not a slam dunk pick as far as like pure 8 versus what we expect from him but like I think way he’s a way better pick than any of the
Running backs that go around him yeah he’s the least bad of them and I think we’ll probably be toying with the ranks as more drafting happens like hey if no one’s ever getting running backs until the Nai Harris Jaylen warrer that’s something that has to be changed
Internally to match that but if we’re seeing bad adps I think our primary goal is to point those out and say we think this is inefficient yeah cook cook comes I mean the efficiency for for him was very good um and it is a bit binary with him where
Like if he just gets goal line work he’s gonna be he’s gonna Crush so actually I’m fine moving him up I’m I think I’m just going to go ahead and move him up um where where would you guys where like if I put him let’s say
At like 31 or 32 in the pure rank would that be too high now yeah no sorry earlier we were talking about you know who would we take over DK metf because initially we had him a bit higher and try and like bring that more down to
Earth I’d probably take James Cook ahead of DK meta and I really like the market isn’t forcing my hand there yeah okay so the what you’re looking at will not be what you’re looking at when these launch because we’re moving James Cook up uh he comes out at pick
32 now so we’re going to have a bull stance on J I like I like that like he’s I feel feel good about in the efficiency stuff that I have he comes out pretty strong as a rusher and receiver and it’s really just a matter of the goal line
Work which obviously he’s particularly uh in trouble there because Josh Allen steals so much um and then they just spent a whole season giving it to like anybody but him so it probably he probably doesn’t get there but I think he can like he can pay off this
ADP can come close paying off the ADP he can survive he can surv like imagine especially think about how last year played out where this ended up being a terrible range for wide receivers and and running backs too like he can just pay off by being a efficient Runner an
Efficient pass catcher and having some touchdowns he doesn’t need a lot he can survive it it’s probably one where you’re like ah there was a breakout receiver I missed out on oh oh Josh Allen turned in or Mahomes turned in a rebound season but like the bad outcomes
For him are probably okay they’re probably fine and the good outcomes for him like you said are incredible so he feels like a very big uh small loss but potential for a massive win type of bet yeah and we mentioned the Josh Allen goal line as an issue and I think that’s
The only major non comp with looking at how etn was perceived last year on the Jaguars and James Cook this year with the if they can get the goal line work there’s going to be such a path to the legendary season existing in their range of outcomes and etn someone that we were
Pretty aggressive on at first in the late third then especially as he fell to the fourth and James Cook opens in the early fourth I think he will get into the third so he’s someone that I would really be aggressive with now as a clear Talent bu yeah 1.22 yards per round run
As a rookie 1.38 last year for James cook those are pretty good numbers they’re not like off the charts but when you pair that with really strong rushing efficiency last year um including by the way a really good success rate which makes me a little bit more bullish about the idea
That he could get some work around the goal line because success rate is like you’re doing what you’re supposed to do you’re hitting the right hole you’re not trying to bounce everything outside right those are players that even if they’re undersized might be pretty good around the goal line like give this dude
A chance at the goal line and maybe he actually surprises um and you know is able to earn a bit more of that work and it is it’s so binary like if he’s just used at the goal line like this dude could absolutely be like a week in week
Out like locked in starter in fantasy it’s just like we’re all basically just going to argue about like How likely that is um any thoughts on etn I mean we are I would say of the the bare stance is this one makes me the most uncomfortable but he did he kind of
Struggled in some of the advanced rushing stats last year um after looking like a really strong rusher before that I mean he had minus 77 rush yards ere expected last year uh he was he was quite inefficient as a rusher that that was behind Ezekiel Elliott uh it’s behind DeAndre Swift
Behind AJ Dylan behind Tyler Alger mil Sanders I mean some of this because he totaled a lot of carries and then they was bad um but his rush yards ere expected was minus uh 29 which is also pretty bad so that’s like I mean again that’s also behind Swift that’s behind
Where Eckler was last year that’s behind Alexander Madison um I don’t think people realize like how inefficient he was as a rusher because he scored 11 touchdowns as a rusher yeah it’s a stance that I fully understand think I will probably have in my portfolio if he
Stays in the mid third but it’s I think more uncomfortable than Rashad white and Isaiah Peko who profile is such typical Dead Zone backs that I’m comfortable fading year in and year out yeah I’ll probably move him up a few spots just because it’s like he doesn’t strike me as like a mega
Fade candidate it’s just that the market got really bullish on him after bearish info is kind of how I view it and that makes it hard to stay close to the market we do have evidence that he’s a good rusher not last year two years ago
Now was strong in the advanced stuff so like I don’t say last year could have been a blip but the answer is probably somewhere in between like we should wait more data more heavily but we shouldn’t take it as gospel the last year is who
He is so I still think I’m gonna end up having less than the field on him but I agree with you guys that like maybe not a mega fade candidate yeah yeah I’m gonna move him up uh a bit um okay so let’s move to few of the other big fade positions um
Let’s see so we kind of talked this group of running backs the easiest thing is to go look at more running backs I mean we’re low on um I would say the running backs with uncertain Futures generally uh we’re not low on Aaron Jones who is kind of fits that older
Running back who could fall off but we are low on guys where we don’t know where they’re going to play next year Josh Jacobs Alvin C is a cut candidate they they are in salary Capell um maybe they I mean they’re G to clear cap space by restructuring Carr and maybe they use
That to keep Cima um probably better uses of that cap space but cimo was actually pretty solid last year uh Derrik Henry free agent Austin Eckler cut candidate um Nick sorry Eckler’s a free agent and oh he’s a free agent right he’s done in La yeah
Sorry he’s he’s a free agent Joe Mixon cut candidate but I think a fair you know they can he could take a pay cut and he’s only making I think like 8 mil so I think he’s somewhat likely to stay in Cincinnati and we’re not low on
Him um Nick chub we are low on primarily because of the injury stuff but thoughts on this group of running backs were were generally low on yeah I mean like you said they the pretty common characteristics among all of them where we don’t know where they’ll be playing next year some more
Confident some we truly have zero idea uh like none of them coming off of like anything close to their best seasons like Derrick Henry was good last year but he probably wasn’t like I he definitely was not Peak Derrick Henry Austin ecklers fall off as a runner just
Seemed to continue and exacerbate last year uh Nick chub it’s just injury related obviously but there is contract stuff that gets folded into that as well like another one where you look at the archetype of players the are and it’s generally been winning bets you can maybe quibble with like Oh Aaron Jones
Was efficient last year or I think so and so’s got a better projection in terms you don’t have to quibble with us there we we we are acknowledg Aaron Jones is under contract with Green Bay and AJ D’s a free agent and he was good last year we’re 4.6 spots ahead of ADP
We don’t hate all old running backs we’re willing to take them if the price is right yep this I think is a reasonable price for Aaron Jones especially because we feel pretty good about the offense this offense actually kind of exting now yeah and I think AJ
Dylan’s a free agent too if I remember correct yeah AJ Dylan’s free agent it’s kind of all Ls up for him like you’re just kind of sweating the fact that he’s old and can’t stay healthy but he still seems good he’s still under contract the offense seems good he checks a lot of
The boxes that the guys who are in this range in our rankings check almost none of like and that’s obviously why he’s the one guy in this cohort who we actually like yeah Tony Pard would be to me the most confounding of these guys um because he was so bad last year the
Situation broke perfectly and I don’t know that I would want Tony Pard in the current situation at this ADP at 74.5 like if you just told me they franchise tagged him again shockingly like I don’t know that I would take him like I guess I probably should because
It’s like I’m getting so many touches at the end of the seventh round or whatever um then or the end of the sixth round then you know I can I can use that I can use like is an advanced rate kind of piece just to help me fill out my running back room
Take some I I’ll go maybe more aggressive on some of my running back breakout bets later yeah but but that hasn’t happened he’s he potentially isn’t in Dallas like I don’t understand and importantly won’t be in Dallas in the situation where they want him to assume the carries because they just
Watched the season of Tony Pard assuming all the workload and they are going to find better options or just bring in competition because there’s no chance they’re giving him anything more than $4 million to come in to be part of that group and if Tony Perard’s on the Open
Market at this stage of his career I struggle to see a team being willing to give him the opportunity to step into a lead workload he could be a committee back and his ADP would then correct and then he might be an interesting pick but this ADP does not reflect that
World would you guys be shocked if he like went full Damen Harris and would just like signed a a cheap contract we assumed he was the number two and then we basically forgot he existed by the end of 2023 by the end of 2024 sorry no surprised yes but like
Stunned no like you know James Robinson’s another great example of a guy who’s really good early in his career it went quicker the snap happened quicker but like it’s really good early and the injury is just caught up to him like the position is just physically brutal so no not shocked 2025 DC
Defender Most Valuable Player Tony yeah I mean obviously that’s not the most likely outcome but I do I just it’s like it’s a lot of risk and not a ton of upside I don’t think with Tony Pard right here like once the bull case is that he was hurt last year what did
He say a high ankle sprain and a fractured ankle I maybe in butchering that uh no I think he did have a fractur ankle that he was coming back from and I believe they it was also a high ankle spray not that that one like that should
Be resolved by then but like serious serious injury and he started to look better down the stretch but like he was nowhere near our hero Tony Pard that we knew it was just he was a little better if you carry that sort of trend line back to another offseason removed from
The injury and he comes back his expected points last year were great his domination of the backfield was great especially when you throwout garbage time of which Dallas had a lot of in a number of different ways they got to garbage time if he comes back as some
Semblance of old Tony Pard in this role he crushes but like that’s a bet that not a l a lot of running backs are able to make like it’s not like we see this a ton of times like guys at the running back position typically when we see them
Fall off there’s no late career Revival yeah and I would I would say you know if if the Cowboys give him another contract if they’re like confident you know if everything breaks right then we’ll still probably be behind Market because I think this ADP kind of reflects that outcome already but you
Know at that point then I would start to feel more open to the idea that it was just injury related like the team that saw it all go down feels confident that there’s more there you know if they don’t feel confident I’m worried the rest of the league is not going to feel
Confident and then there’s like a lot of downside so this rank could be really off and we could be far too low on Tony Pard but I think like we’ll get additional bullish information and it’s one where I’m willing to miss out in this tournament and then
Maybe get some more tony Pard late later on with the idea that I think the floor here is really low like this this is a guy who got his shot and and bombed and and that doesn’t generally work out very well when when you’re free agent the year after that
Happens um a couple more uh before we get to rookie conversation uh excuse me I did want to talk about other guys who are free agents that I don’t think people are like fully baking in DeAndre Swift is one swift is a free agent I believe
And uh was bad this past year so he’s he’s I think a fairly easy fade thoughts on him I mean you laid it out like he didn’t add a ton to this team especially down the stretch like he popped early but like was very clear that he wasn’t
Adding a ton that they couldn’t get from other players like we saw we saw how they elevated my sanders right Sanders looked pretty good in this system then he Le like oh it’s clearly he was gaining a lot and actually wasn’t offering that much my bet is that Swift
Is the same kind of guy I don’t know how much they even care to bring that kind of guy back if they did bring him back would we draft him a where would if we knew he was on the roster he was locked in 20 million and it was all guaranteed
There’s no way to get rid of him I’d maybe have him like six running back spots higher he’d be a fine pick but like they’d still be a candidate to draft a running back theyd still be candidate to give Kenny gainwell more work like yeah locked in I think
Maybe in the late 0s yeah around David mger yeah that’s not that much higher than where he’s at right now in which I think he’s a dog to return to this roster kind of a big dog to return to the markets absolutely not factoring that in because they just saw DeAndre
Swift in an eagles’s uniform last year so why would DeAndre Swift not be in an Eagles uniform the next year and I think the market generally tends to overvalue the situation that we saw last year especially when we know these are changing situations with free
Agents and he was a guy that his team fully gave up on they traded what a day three pick for him he is an unrestricted free agent after the year I mean this is a kind of classic guy who we always forget about like how many how many
Players like we’ve completely wiped from our brains and DeAndre Swift is a candidate to be someone we like completely forget about after after this coming year so again and that may not happen and hopefully it doesn’t but it’s it’s a real risk um and I think one
Reason to to be okay missing out on like like I’d rather miss out on DeAndre Swift resigning with the Eagles getting a little bit of a discount there I I missed out on that discount that’s fine to me because I don’t think Swift’s that good so like
What’s he even gonna is he gonna bury me because I didn’t get you know pick 100 DeAndre Swift like I I don’t think he is I’m willing to make that bet that he won’t and just two spots lower we have TJ hackinson another player where given his multi- ligament tear and an ACL
Surgery that he had six days ago it is almost certain that he’ll be on the pup list missing the first half of the year and just like we saw with Kyler Murray last year when we have the information it’s not telegraphed but there are some signs telling us T.J hackinson is
Probably missing most of this year though he will be back in the important weeks which is ultimately the highest consideration but with Kyler Murray he went from a 12th or 13th round pick to in the final week of best Mania fully undrafted despite the situation not actually changing it seems that we can
Be on a similar trajectory with T.J hackinson so we made the decision that for a portfolio approach it seems advisable to want to fade him in the top 100 as you’ll probably be a you’ll almost certainly be able to get cheaper or equal price hackinson in the future
Once already known facts become sort of like unavoidable to look at that’s all that’s going to Happ it’s not new information we’re not even like speculating like things that like the injury timeline that experts are putting out there basically like occurs then then his price will drop we
Think um some other cut candidates Mike Williams is a cut candidate we’re well below ADP on him um we are uh let’s see who’s there’s another one I just had James Connor were lower on uh he’s a cut can he’s probably there but you know the age is also a
Concern as well um Nick chubo mentioned could be cut probably not that would be Lo room yeah be such a bad look but he he’s not protected by the contract in addition to the injury I I agree though I think he’s probably there um one guy before we move to the rookies
And maybe a good little transition to the rookies oh Devin single is a free agent by the way so before we get too excited about you know what he did with the Texans he might not be there um but kind of transitioning to the rookies here Jackson Smith and jigo were behind
ADP on fairly significantly did not have an efficient rookie season uh struggled to kind of earn like a regular kind of traditional wide receiver role early in the year got there by the end of the year um but you know there I think some reasons to be bullish Tyler Lockett probably
Gone um and so then he assumes the number two role there uh maybe they are a little bit more pass heavy potentially depending on who they hire as their OC but we got a guy uh who had 1.32 yards per route run I think kind of brought additional concern
To the table in terms of the archetype where he had a 6.4 a DOT 69% of his snaps were out of the slot not like the highest upside profile quarterback uncertainty potentially like he could have a rookie quarterback down the stretch which which obviously is not
Ideal or he could have Geno but Gino’s not like a star so I think a little bit of concern there like some real red flags and he’s basically going where he went last year and I think one of the big things for me is is uh I mean his
His ADP is is 58.7 like it’s like the same ADP as last season uh with rookies we get this late season boost that’s sort of built in where we can really expect that the teams are are auditioning them seeing what they have like they did with Jackson Smith and
Jigo at the end of last season um we’re very likely to get that boost even if they ultimately go down as a bust they can still you know deliver that late season production for us secondy year players aren’t really necessarily going to do that they’re
Kind of going to be more what they are the whole year so um I it’s odd to me that his ADP is where it was last year given you know not a reason that we need to give up on him but the rookie season wasn’t that
Good yeah I fully agree I think his ADP is off by 15 to 20 picks which in the top 100 is something that is absolutely worth the one issue is we’re discussing pre-show we think his ADP is not really likely to come in our favor as much as
Some of the others because a lot of the like second year bull or wide receiver fry for the young players like Tim Robinson me were all trying to find the guy who did this with skymore last year and some of those players it’s like you’re looking at them but jsn did
Nothing to make us believe he has a better r of outcomes on February 4th 2024 than we had on August 28th 2023 and the market is saying oh it’s probably a pretty similar bet when we think is a meaningfully worse bet not a bet that is worth making zero% of the
Time but at cost one that we want to make far less than the market is giving us yeah um yeah and so let me just I’m still showing Swift on the screen here but yeah Jackson’s been the jiga we have at Pick 6 5 he’s going a pick 59 you’ll
You’ll see him fall to you with with these rankings you will not get zero jsn we’re not making a hard stance you can’t draft him we’re just you know feeling like he is overpriced let’s get to some of the rookies we’re going to do this quickly uh we’ve already gone a while here
And we’re about to have a lot of rookie coverage on this channel on the site um I’m I’m gonna be doing a podcast shortly with Davis Maddock and Jacob Sanderson on Dynasty stuff we’re going to talk rookies uh with those guys um a lot this off
Season so there will be plenty of rookie discussion so we can do this fairly quickly um we’re even on Marvin Harrison we’re slightly ahead on Malik neighbors um we’re even on romad dun slightly ahead on Brian Thomas I think Brock Bowers is somewhat significantly underrated although I will
Say that the tight end Market has me not hammering him um I think there’s a lot of values at tight endend but I do think Brock Bowers is a fairly strong value um Caleb Williams were head of ADP on uh I think he’s obviously very good Prospect
Gonna gonna very likely go number one um not a bad landing spot to the Bears uh Troy Franklin uh I would I would say we can stop here and talk about Troy Franklin and Jonathan Brooks are two guys that I am taking a lot of in these drafts and
Then Keon Coleman is the first rookie we get to that we’re not high on so let’s stop here and talk these three guys real quick um Troy Franklin I think has a good chance to go at the late first one of these guys who could have a really
Nice landing spot as a result um he is I think I think he’s going to test really well I think he’s really fast um downfield guy uh four-year player but productive um so he’s he’s someone that I think uh ultimately will end up moving up in ADP
Is one reason to be high on him but I also think you know he’s going to have draft Capital behind him very likely to be a a round two pick if he doesn’t go in the first um and again could be a late first round pick in a great landing
Spot those guys tend to go more like sixth round seventh round so you’re getting potentially a really big value on Troy Frank Troy Franklin that’s kind of what I feel like with Jonathan Brooks like whether or not I have a pretty high opinion of him I think relative to the
Market but even if you don’t think about like the type of player that he is in terms of how the NFL is likely going to view him like I think he’s a pretty good bet to be a day two pick he’s probably a solid bet to be the top running back off
The board does that player typically go where the ADP has him right now like no we hype that type of player up typically well before the draft let alone after they find a landing spot so one I do think he’s a good player but even even
If you didn’t I think there’s a very strong chance that is like I think it’s almost certain that his ADP climbs not only does it climb I it climbs significantly I think Jonathan Brooks yeah is extremely undervalued now he did tear his ACL um and that’s one
Reason why I think maybe people are are a little bit less excited about him obviously but from what I’m seeing it seems like he’s still going to be a second round pick um it looks like it was a clean ACL tear uh so you know we
Would expect him to be kind of hitting his strip believe he tour the ACL in October or November I can’t remember um so you’re it’s he’s more of a late season bet than the typical rookie but all these guys are late season bets you know so like it’s it
Robs you of part of the range of outcomes and that’s annoying you know he’s not going to come in and immediately dominate but Jonathan Brooks emerging down the stretch and absolutely crushing is kind of the bet in the first place I don’t think the ACL injury really like takes
That away and had he not torn the ACL we’re talking about a guy who I think is very very likely to go in the second round and we’re talking about a guy that we normally take in like the fourth round of baseball drafts you know so I
Mean he has he’s a good rusher he has he has good size like I mean this is a really strong Prospect and the injury discount here seems kind of absurd like pick 131 I I I think we should be taking this guy like in the seventh round honestly
So I mean we’re you know maybe I’m like out over my skis with that but we got him at pick 119 and I feel extremely confident that he’s a good pick at pick 119 like extremely confident uh oh go did you have something in no sorry I was had some stuff on some
Sophomore players last year’s rookies but if there are any more rookies you want to dive into first happy to talk about that we say Keon Coleman is one that this one could look bad if he like goes to the Chiefs or something but I think a one of the few wide receivers in
This class where I feel like genuinely kind of like H don’t I’m not a huge fan it kind of like doesn’t get separation um not a super polished receiver but draft Capital could be there for him we may have to move off this take um I would say in general as
We go through um kind of I’ll get to one other take but in general the running back class gets it dries up quickly I like audri ese a lot um I think he’s like kind of a fun downhill Runner type but you know there’s not a lot of running back depth
In this class there’s a ton of wide receiver depth in this class um you can kind of take there’s just like a lot of wide receivers that you can take and I would recommend using those extra rounds in the Big Board you know they go 20
Rounds instead of 18 to tack on some of these rookie wide receivers I mean there’s big tiers here big chunks of these wide receivers we have in the rankings um Germaine Burton like very live I think to go second round looks like good day two um bet Ricky piol could like easily go
In the second round kind of an Arbitrage on lad McConkey uh Roman Wilson just had a really strong Senior Bowl I mean there’s a lot of these guys some of these guys are going to end up as day three dudes and you’re going to be bummed so I would
Say spread it out a little bit but I think you’re gonna end up potentially if if you’re really high overall on the wide receivers the rookie wide receiver class you’re going to end up on guys who have like like you know who go like pick 40 and you’re going to have shares of
Them in the 17th 18th 19th 20th round uh it’s it’s a really interesting class that way and yes you are going to get guys who go in like the fifth round or even like the sixth round is where like you know you you will get burned a
Little but I think largely you’ll you’ll be a winner if you take these guys and also like if a guy’s a fourth round pick you know or fifth round pick sometimes they surprise and get on the field at the end of the year anyway so um the
Cost is just really right on a lot of these uh rookie wide receivers and in general not on everyone but in general we we higher on uh the rookie wide receivers relative to the veterans in these late rounds yeah last year you had guys like Jonathan Mingo Cedric Tilman
At Perry Tyler Scott Marvin Mims available in the last round pretty readily and by outcome those weren’t the best picks but if you were looking at ADP Mingo then went in the 11th or 12th round you had Marvin Mims get up to the 11th round in the end so you’re going to
Be hitting some big wins at least in terms of ADP but also in terms of possible production because you know draft Capital can precede production so yeah you might swing and Miss but the veterans you’re also going to swing and miss and they have far lower ceilings so
One more rookie before we get to um the the sophomore thoughts to close it out uh Drake man I think is like wildly undervalued um I think you know you’re seeing like uh I I don’t know if this is true as of today but I was looking I was
Watching a Youtube video um with danne Brugler from the athletic and he had flipped Drake May to his quarterback one I think most people view it as a 1A 1B Drake May is really big he runs a bit not like a a pure rusher but you know if
We’re thinking of him can he be like a Herbert yeah he can be he can be Herbert um he’s aggressive downfield I think probably a lot more aggressive like innately than Herbert is a downfield passer very like had a really strong big time throw right to on on uh 20 plus
Yard throws really popped for me there uh I think he’s a very very strong fantasy quarterback prospect he got size he’s got some rushing ability and he’s willing to attack downfield that’s generally how I mean we’d love if he was like super fast and ran all the time but
Outside of that you know this is kind of what we’re looking for from guys who are going to produce fantasy points can generate Spike weeks he’s going to be the number two pick probably at worst um if he goes number three to New England maybe I reconsider The Stance but I just
Think he’s a really really strong pick like pick 160 like come like that’s just that’s just way way way too low I think and he’s one of the guys that we’ve actually raised the cap on terms what the ADP like we’re we’re not allowing
ADP to have as much of a say on Drake may I just think he’s he’s just extremely undervalued so he’s he’s boosted even beyond what most guys are um but any thoughts Daniel on on some of the sophomore stuff to before we get out of here yeah to try and close us out
After pat you know wax poetic about a few promising players I have three players who I think are like firmly do not draft players that our rankings are communicating as well if we look firstly at rookie year running backs third round picks fewer than 400 rushing yards in
Their rookie season team invest a lot and they get next to no production from them we have in the past 10 or so years Kendra Miller tank bsby Tyrion Davis price Trey Surman Kean vaugh Lynn Bowden Daron Evans Daryl Henderson Damen Harris deont foran James Connor CJ prise Kenyan Drake te Coleman
Duke Johnson Dre Archer Charles Sims an awful cohort to be placed in and James con that was a nice name the team committed to one of these guys you’d be interested yeah if Alvin CRA said I’m holding out next year and Jamal Williams also wasn’t there I’d be interested in
Kendre Miller but we don’t have those exceptions so that’s a bad Forest to be looking for the hits in so I would not be taking Kendry Miller even with the chimra cut risk I think these players are bad if Chima gets cut I’ll probably reconsider because then we have like
Meaningful situation outlier but until we have that I don’t want to project it then at wide receiver there are two when we looking at second round picks that started or played at least 10 games fewer than 500 receiving yards in their rookie year from this year we had John
Meche Marvin Mims and Jonathan Mingo and this list is Sky Moore tawon thoron DS brid rondale Moore Terrace Marshall van Jefferson KJ hamler JJ Aro Whiteside Anthony Miller Andy Isabella James Washington Dante Pettis DJ CH Z Jones all from 2016 onward so again not a great group to be looking at we were
Talking about Mims as a possible outlier with how unique his usage was but again there was probably something unique about almost every one of these very bad players so Mingo I think is a clear fade man I can squint and justify taking but I’d really like to just say he’s in a
Group of terrible players I think my no hypothesis is he too is a terrible player and you know like we push Sky Mo in this terrible player bucket into the ninth round because it was like will is Patrick Mahomes and then with Marvin Mims were’re like well he’s gonna run so
Many routes this year we didn’t we didn’t chase him up into last year’s like sixth round I would like i’ like for only being really really really wrong the first year and and partially wrong yeah I think I think with Mims like we have all these fancy memories of
Like how quote great he was but like you have to sort of treat his season holistically especially since there wasn’t any sort of like catastrophic injury that plummeted his numbers it was just his team continually deciding we shouldn’t be putting him on the field that much and you look at his season
Holistically just in terms of like raw production he looks like Trey Palmer Trey Tucker like he looks like guys who probably don’t go drafted and probably don’t come close to going drafted in all drafts like Trey Tucker is literally I think our last player in 240 players
Ranked like if you zoom out far enough you don’t have to zoom out that far frankly those are the guys he looks like and that’s probably what you should treat them like yeah yeah it’s never a great sign when you’re like oh sweet Marvin Mims just caught something and
Then you’re like oh wait that’s little Jordan Humphrey that’s that’s not that’s not super bullish for Brandon Johnson Brandon Johnson yeah I mean that the guys they were playing over Mims are not I mean that is just a bad sign um I want
To be I want to be back in on Mims Mims I thought was so exciting early in the season on limited routes but yeah it’s given the quarterback uncertainty there as well um it’s just it’s not a not a bet that makes a ton of sense right now
As much as I would like to go against what is prudent and and draft them anyway we we are uh fairly significantly below ADP we’ve got him at pick 16 1 his ADP is 149. but all right I don’t know why we closed on that that’s we closed on
Marvin Mims is dead to us that’s the worst possible way we could have this podcast new year thanks new year new new takes uh my highest drafted wide receiver is now fade great I was gonna say folks it’s 2024 we think n is not a bad pick Marvin Mims junk ball don’t put
Them on your team new year new us not not entirely breea baby first round pick amen we’re we’re good on that um all right thank you guys so much we will see uh everyone later with as I mentioned Dynasty content rookie content uh and just more baseball content rolling out
On the site enjoy your drafts good luck see you next time
16 Comments
Let’s gooooooo
Miles Sanders … a human on a roster week 1. Thank you for your insights lol
My dynasty team with CMC, Tyreek, JJ, Kyren Williams, and QB Josh Allen feels pretty solid for another year. Maybe two.
I like the Brooks love could end up like Kendre lol but maybe he ends up in Dallas and emerges as the lead back late in the season
thank you! I'm a slave to the system now and I need my rankings
You’re fading Barkley and moving cooks up? Saquon scored 8 less fantasy points on underdog and missed all that time, came back early – hurt – on a sorry ass team and still almost scored as much as cooks. You GTO guys mannn…
39:00+ My best pre-draft guess when it concerns McBride, is that his ceiling significantly lowers once AZ takes MH Jr., in pursuit of their next Nuke.
You know you’re a degenerate when you already maxed the little board and you’re stressing out over your portfolio in February 😅
I love this fuckin shit….. The Best!!!!!
Loved this
Kyle needs to update his attire. He has like three shirts he rotates and think I had them all back in '88
Lol fading JT and Barkley as they rise. I better see those 0% exposures come August.
Tell me you don’t have any teams in the gauntlet finals without telling me you don’t have any teams in the gauntlet finals.
kyren went 4th overall in a slow little board last week, i lol’d
Thoughts on the puka and Kupp price difference? I think when puka and kupp both played it was less then a 2 ppr point a game difference? Reminds me of the Sutton and jeudy price difference from last year when the year before it was very close targets and yards wise but the price was like 4 round difference
If people are drafting Breece really high, Kyren should be up there. He’s Todd Gurley in 2018 in that McVay offense.