Matt Gannon breaks down his favorite LIVE plays for the 2024 AWM Phoenix Open
Live we are uh I don’t know if I want to call this the 36 hole update but it’s like the 26 and a half whole update we have a ton of golf left in this uh 2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open and we have a very interesting leaderboard
Which we will definitely get into but first we got to talk about how Liv controls the weather we’ll also talk about the Liv leaderboard too why not and uh yeah so we have gotten what a round and a half in b basically we have a ton of guys still on the golf course
But we had to get this Friday show in uh and make our live bets we I think this this the the situation we’re in is yielding us to some crazy odds on some placements which I will get into later in the show which I’ve already placed but yeah we
Are here Andrew Novak leads the way which I will pull up right now Andrew Novak leads the way beh uh tied with Nick Taylor MAV McNeely Doug game and Scotty sheffler which this minus eight number I think this is is where the leaderboard starts this is the pseudo
Lead I’m going to say Scotty Sheffer at minus8 tied with JT cam young our guy Ryan Fox uh yeah it’s a I think I really don’t see any of these top what three names uh winning this golf tournament I think the pseudo leaderboard is Scotty
Sheffer at at at minus eight but now I don’t want to take anything away with away from these top guys Nick T’s playing great Andrew Novak’s like second in the field on approach I believe let’s look at Andrew Novak’s uh Strokes gain numbers Andrew Novak is second in the
Field on approach like he’s not putting his way to success he’s not just hitting [ __ ] chips he’s playing Great Golf and he does this he does this time and time again he wasn’t trending but Andrew Novak can get scolding hot with the irons and he’s showing it now Nick
Taylor a 60 a 70 usually when guys have low rounds they sleep on the they sleep on it overnight and then come out the next day slow Nick Taylor shot 60 this morning rested up for 40 minutes came back out and shot 70 that just goes to
Show you how with literally he was cruising all day and he looked like a different golfer in this his second round but he’s hitting the ball well he’s gaining across the board obviously the number that catches your eye is first and strokes gain putting which will not last over uh like he lost
Strokes putting in round two yeah he lost almost a full stroke in round two and he gained 7even point1 in round one it’s not going to sustain he’s probably going to finish the tournament around plus five plus six Strokes putting he’s going to give back some Strokes to the
Field which is why I don’t believe this minus 12 number is is is the real lead and I will like but Andrew Novak is hitting it well but he’s just never proven anything under pressure especially when you got these dogs chasing him I don’t see the leader board
Being anything beyond minus eight and then Doug game M Ney M NE is really excited really in excited to see him playing well again he’s went through injuries and he’s like I think he’s leading the field T to Green 21st on off the te eighth on a approach third around
The green and he’s losing Strokes putting but he’s yeah he definitely had some putts where he left out there and could have gone much lower in this events but MAV is playing great golf good to see him back on the leaderboard and then Doug Doug gim got the crowd
Going on 16 has what he’s a 15 15 foot putt for Birdie on 17 to get up to 10 under and then he has 18 left so Doug gam got to play Early uh it’s going to be cold in the morning but uh he has a
Chance to extend it now let’s talk about Scotty sheffler because this stat profile is uh is is is solid as as as as ever Scotty Sher is always solid top seven in both off the te and approach everything checks out gaining Strokes to the field with on the putting green so
I’m I don’t want to hear anyone complaining about Scotty’s putter Scotty is gaining an entire stroke to the putting green I saw people tweeting Scotty can just make one putt if Scotty can just make make one putt he’s making he made multiple 30-footers he’s putt fine dude he sucks at putting you can’t
Complain about Scotty Sheffer putting like you’re betting on a bad putter why like why are you complaining about Scotty Sheffer putting he’s a bad putter like it it you can’t complain if Scott like Scotty miss another 15 footer yeah he did because he sucks at putting and
He’s gaining a full stroke putting so you should be damn near you should be happy that he’s gaining a full stroke putting if he keeps this up he’s winning the golf tournament obviously so I yes I’m very optimistic that Scotty will win we have one bet on Scotty is Scotty
Scotty top 10 minus 152 was our biggest placement bet so I want Scotty to keep playing well we have him the top 10 that should be a breeze so let’s get into JT Justin Thomas is playing so consistently and playing so good he’s gaining off the te he’s gaining on approach he’s gaining
Around the green and he’s gaining on the putting green very enticing to see what JT is doing and he’s definitely live heading into this weekend and I really do like him for next week I’m just saying that now can cam young we bet him
At 40 to1 this week and I just going to tell you right now I’m going to lose so much money on cam young in the 2024 I was never really a cam young Slappy I didn’t bet him as much as other people have bet him but I just can’t I just
Can’t get over how good of a driver he is like fourth off the te just striping the ball off the T hitting his irons well he’s putting fine too he missed a few shorties that he could have made but he’s made he made multiple long ones I’m not complaining about cam Young’s
Putting at all I didn’t tweet anything no complaints about cam Young’s putting he’s playing right he’s chipping it poorly and oh I wanted to mention about Scotty he’s chipping the ball poorly this week like he usually gains a lot more Strokes around the greens and I
Think it has to do with sand safes um no he I think he just missed one sand safe so I’m not really sure where this number is entirely coming from but usually he’s gaining two plus Strokes around the greens maybe it’s just because he has so yeah literally his scrambling
Percentages are so are he’s only had to scramble six times cuz he’s hit so many greens he’s hit 30 or 36 greens that’s very impressive from Scotty so I like this top five anyone else I want to talk about in the top of this leaderboard in the top 10 it’s good to
See Daniel Burger playing some good golf like 66 69 that’s playing golf and he’s hitting his irons really well I said when he first came back he was hitting the ball ball well but he was chipping and putting poorly that’s just going to come with reps and that’s just going to
Come with time we see he’s putting better now he’s still chipping poorly which will just it’s just feel and it’s tournament reps that will come not really worried Sam B playing great golf again at this golf course and I it’s like I said it was going to come down
With the driver with Sam Burns if he’s gaining Strokes driving he’s going to be in the top 10 if he’s losing he’s gonna not be in the top 10 and he is gaining 2.2 in two rounds so uh sahala I said the exact same thing about if he’s
Gaining Strokes off the te he’s going to be contending if he’s not gaining Strokes off the te he’s not going to be contending one round half a stroke that’s plenty enough for him to be in contention he shot six under in round one he will be out early tomor tomorrow
Morning so um Windam Clark had a great round two today shot 65 after shooting 72 and yeah he’s striping the ball with his irons when he is hitting his irons well he looks differently he’s extremely confident he lashes at it and he stares so it was very uh exciting to see Windam
Hitting the ball well but um let’s get into let’s talk about how our bets are doing besides cam young JT posted M the cut Matt Fitzpatrick shot two under in round one and um he was four under and then this morning he went out and shot two over which wasn’t great because I
Would have loved for Matt Fitzpatrick to be four under going into round two but two under is definitely still Al he could post another four under round four five under and be right back in this thing I don’t love that it’s going to be cold but Matt Fitz loves playing in the
Cold so it is what it is um sunjay literally hand up horrible bet I thought what will will Cox had told me on the Monday interview uh was live but I should have just trusted the numbers the numbers showed he was playing bad and wils said
He was hitting the ball well so I should have just trusted my numbers sunj is he’s he he shot one under yesterday and probably that was the best he could have scored he should have shot like one or two over and he shot one under he still
Won Under with a full round to play ahead of him like he could obviously go nucle but he’s not hitting the ball well he’s starting off with an eight foot putt for PA tomorrow morning so that just tells you how it’s going to be for
Sunj and then sew 60 to1 he was all the way up to eight under I think he’s now six under uh he’s striping the ball off the te which is good he’s giving himself a lot of chances let’s look at SEIU where is SE I think he’s six under yeah six under
6868 striping it off the T losing a bit on approach he lost yeah he’s about field average on Approach at both days but he’s just a tad bit losing on approach putting well chipping well if we could just gain a little bit more on approach uh the formula is there for
SEIU and he’s a guy who could definitely go super low I don’t know if there’s going to be any more 60s out there with the weekend set up but um sew definitely still in this tournament everyone is there’s a lot of guys still in this tournament this is going to be wide open
This is going to be a fun weekend okay let’s talk about the um obviously all of these These are first round leader bombs they were 780 100 to1 bets uh I just bet these because I knew I had Scotty to cover it all and Scotty should cover this all and give us a
Hefty return let’s uh round round two matchup that’s just getting started uh Adam hadwin versus is Shane Lowry that’s the only round two match that we had did that start yet did they tea off hadwin hadwin is yet to tea off whereas low where’s low low has teed off Lowry
Made par on one so you can’t get in on that one anymore hopefully it comes through though um hold on keep that open okay uh yeah let’s talk about some of our live ads which I’m gonna have to yeah live ads I’ve made three live ads
Placements and then this one I have not bet yet the top Ryan Fox which I’m going to explain all of it so Callum Taran top 20 150 to one now let’s let’s talk Callum Taran is currently three over but he’s got 16 holes left to play and he
Started off two under through two two three on the tough side of the golf course the easy besides the back nine and he’s ready two Wonder has a 18ft putt for bur if he can the Cut’s going to be minus two I believe the Cut’s
Going to be minus two so he’s got to shoot five under so he’s got to shoot seven under on the round if he can go seven under on the round Anything could happen on the weekend and you’re giving me 150 to one look Kum Taran stats aren’t good Kum taran’s playing horrible
He has not not been a cut in a while but he has a full round of golf to play he’s got more time to think about everything he’s already off to a hot start look you see this two under through three he’s got to find a way to make the cut I’m
Not saying he’s going to just go out and shoot seven under or five more under but let’s talk he’s got 13 birdie hole 15 birdie hole 17 birdie hole that’s three birdies he needs to find two more birdies so 13 15 17 three birdie holes they should be those should be Auto
Birdies at least those are the easy holes from there he’s got six doing math Six 12 more holes to find two birdies if he can make birdies on the birdie holes he has 12 more holes to find two more birdies if you can make the cut Callen Taran you’re giving me
151 to finish inside the top 20 I’m down I’m down all right Tom hogi top 10 plus 900 Tom hogi is currently sitting at one under has a full round to play and he is is hitting the ball great the iron play is awesome so I love that from Tom hogi
Um he’s the golf course that makes sense he’s playing great he has a full round ahead of him why can’t he finish inside the top 10 If he if he shoots two or three under today say he shoots three under and he’s at minus four minus four
Would already Vault him up to T28 and then he’s got the full weekend to get inside the top 10 and then Brendan Todd we got Brendan Todd top 10 at 12 to one Brendan Todd Brenan Todd is currently at one under two he’s hitting his irons
Poorly at least to start in round one but coming into this round he was hitting his or this week he was hitting his irons really really good five for the last five events brenn and Todd has gained Strokes with his irons and he’s finally putting well so like I said with
Tom hogi if if if Brenan Todd can shoot two or three under he’s right back in the mix to find himself towards the top of the leaderboard and you think it’s crazy like to Vault this many places in the leaderboard not at all last or two weeks ago we did
We did this with OA baa after 36 holes he was six to1 to finish inside the top 20 after being like t48 and he finished like t113 with ease didn’t do anything crazy just little by little worked his way up the leaderboard the stuff shifts a lot and especially
With the guys who have full rounds uh ahead of them like they only played one round whereas the top the guys ahead of them played two rounds they have 18 more holes on the entire leaderboard so there’s a real there’s a real leverage spot right there and then Tyson
Alexander top 20 plus 161 I’ve kind of been clowning Tyson Alexander on Twitter but look his stats aren’t good but it’s another guy who just found himself in the middle of the hot round he is three under through four he’s already inside the cut line already inside the cut line he’s at
T47 with again on the easy side he’s playing the front side right now he has the whole back nine to play which is the easier of the two nines and he’s he’s got a hot round going he’s he hasn’t made a cut in a while he’s sleeping on
This like okay I don’t have to win the golf tournament I’m in I’m in the driver’s seat already I’m three under through four holes I got a crew I don’t have to do anything crazy I can finish this round three or four under still easily make the cut and then from there
Top 20 is just he’s at minus two the top 20 is just three Strokes from that the top 20 is at minus5 right now he’s already at minus three and he’s got 15 hor holes to play and then finally Troy Merritt top 20 plus 1400 now Merritt is currently inside the
Cutline he is t47 with three holes to play and he has to play 16 which is just a little little chip and 17 which should be a birdie hole and 18 is obviously a tough hole he doesn’t he could finish this even par and still make the cut but
I believe he should bir 17 get himself to three under he finishes three under he’s already at t37 from there he has the whole weekend to get himself inside the top 20 14 to1 just really crazy numbers truthfully and any of the any of these two of these can hit one of these
Can hit one of these hits I profit no big deal but I haven’t wagered on this one yet because I wanted to see if there was anything else I wanted to ad because every week I give myself $300 in live ad uh allotment so I just throw it all all
The rest on this what is that uh 175 on this Ryan Fox top Oceana but I want to take another look at it so let’s go down here um top oceanana this is the book I use Ryan Fox minus 190 has to beat Aaron battley minw Le and Adam Scott so Fox
Let’s let’s look at Fox Fox comma Aron he’s currently eight under has to play 789 now these aren’t really birdie holes these aren’t really easy or hard holes they’re kind of just holes he should finish even par say he finishes eight under par he sees himself top five
Going into the weekend the next guy is Aaron battley Aaron battley is at four under so he’s got a fourstroke lead on him already and has now Aaron badley does have a a bunch of golf left to play but he’s not hitting the ball well and even if say Aaron battley shoots eight
Under or gets to eight under I would still pay minus 190 for Ryan Fox to beat Aaron badley over 36 holes of golf Ryan Fox is just a much better golfer than Aaron badley is right now and then the next guy is min wle who’s at two under
No more golf left to play and so is Adam Scott now these guys are both dangerous and can shoot low scores but with a six-stroke lead I by no means is Ryan Fox a bad golfer and I’m like saying that he just has a big lead Ryan Fox is
A great golfer and I I don’t think he’s going to give much back so minus 190 you’re paying juice I think it should be closer to minus 300 truthfully uh Aaron badley is probably what’s keeping this number down because he has so many holes left to play but I think I’m just going
To roll with that kind of like I did with the first round leaders I just did a bunch of bombs and then we’ll have one bet to cover it all hopefully that uh does as well so what I say 175 left on that let me see
175 yeah that’s exactly 300 so 175 to 192 whatever we’re going to do it 175 on Ryan Fox Oceana and that will be our live bet so we’re in with that let’s go down to talk about Underdog and price picks which I am no longer betting these
Two like these two or three- leg bets early on in this season I the first two weeks was good that’s probably what what got me what got me doing them so often early on in the season I was betting these twole prize picks things and I was
Like damn this is just cake this is going to be a a money laundering scheme for me I’m just going to get rich on prize picks like you’re I’m betting like they’re parlays like it’s hard you’re it’s not like I’m you’re going to hit a plus 300 parlay every single day it’s
It’s hard and then I realized that I was not getting the money back that I was putting in because prize picks and Underdog grade your wins as a sweep Stakes so for example if you hit a plus 300 parlay you get your winnings and you
Get your return if you hit a 3X Underdog or prize pick slip you only get your winnings you don’t you don’t get your investment so I crunch the numbers if you saw my Tik Tok a minus 110 twole parlay pays approximately plus 260 a two-leg underdog pays about plus
300 so you so you win the 260 on the parlay you hit the plus 260 parlay you get the 260 you won and you get your $100 back that you won Underdog you hit your plus 300 slip you only get $300 back you don’t get that $100 back so
That’s 14% difference you’re losing $14 every $100 you invest no matter what you’re doing every winning slip you you win on Underdog even though you’re happy you’re losing 14% of what you should actually win if you were to Parlay those two props if you were to make the same
Slip parlayed on DraftKings FanDuel you would win 14% more so you’re getting robbed I I think it’s fun I’m only going to I’m only going to be betting like $50 $20 like 171 slips like massive lotto ticket just to sprinkle they’re fun they’re just fun fun sweats for the day
But I’m no longer betting $100 in the last three weeks or two weeks I was betting $250 a slip and I was getting crushed I was like [ __ ] like I need to research some more and I’m like why am I losing so much this is the most I’ve
Lost in a while so hand up I was wrong about the underdog and prize picks like it’s not for daily profit it really isn’t it’s for fun bets it’s for massive Lotto sweats and nothing more than that so that’s my taking on the dog and Prospects I’m not going to be doing them
Every day I’ll still have fun with the Tik Tok a few of you guys are enjoying it um so if you see the if you see the Tik toks if you see the the stuff on Twitter like show some love because I’m this is my livelihood now I’m I’m doing well and
I’m uh getting love from from other sources but show shoot me some love shoot me a retweet shoot me a text or not a text shoot me a text yeah Fu hit me up um shoot me a retweet shoot me a like help it helps because you never
Know who could see it and uh can get me to the the next level because I am if you’re watching this I’m grinding my ass off I really am I’m trying to make this a a real career and I am doing well thus far I’m 23 years old this is my
Full-time this is my full-time job if you wondering okay that B that basically sums it up I went through the outright card went through all this stuff matchups live ads and yeah we went through the leaderboard so we’re in for a fun weekend we’re in for a fun weekend uh
Yeah any questions you guys know where to find me same deal every single week I will be back Monday with the DFS show and then I will be doing a bunch of other stuff for Action Network Viner you guys know where to find me peace out appreciate every single support if it’s
One person watching if it’s 100 people watching thank you I appreciate it I’ll catch you guys soon
1 Comment
Keep up the good work mate like it good info!