2024 WM Phoenix Open Picks, Research, Course Preview, Betting Odds | 2024 Fantasy Golf Picks, Bets

Pat Mayo provides the preview and makes early 2024 WM Phoenix Open Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

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00:57 New Fantasy National Tool
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40:08 Course/Mixed Conditions
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A Mayo experience experience Experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience Waste Management Phoenix Open picks research course preview no need to guess the odds because these odds have been lingering at draftking Sportsbook for five months now some people have some very good positions on some now very good players although some people

Have bet other players who are not probably going to be playing in this field so hopefully you’ll get a refund on those bets but always read your terms and conditions at all sports books to make sure they’re not going to take your money all right let’s jump into this the

Big thing this week is smashing the like button to the episode subbing to Mayo media Network in the entire walkth through today for the stats for the generator for the field listing and a brand new tool which I’ll show you right now this is the new oneandone or season

Long planner at Fantasy national.com not currently live on the site we’ll go live very very soon so if you’re trying to plan out what you want to do for the one andone for season long fantasy to make sure that you have guys for the proper tournaments if you need to make moves or

You need to draft as many people in best ball as possible to make sure that you’re getting enough events covered uh you’ll see the key at the top the defending Champion confirmed in the field played last year an alternate for the event or just simply out of the

Event obviously we have the WM Phoenix Open already in there but you can search any player that you want uh up in the upper leftand Corners if you want to see where Rory has committed to so far this year you see not this field he played in The Genesis Invitational he will be

Playing in that but he’s not officially confirmed he has confirmed himself for what was once the Honda Classic you can see that he’s also playing in Valero uh and obviously he’s going to be in the Masters he just needs to accept his invitation once that field is actually

Released but all the way down the line anytime that announcements are made via social media via the tournament themselves from the player directly uh that they will get updated into this site so we thought this would be a brand new Tool uh that would really help out

People in trying to map out their fantasy golf Seasons moving forward once again fantasy national.com mayo and it’s just another new tool amongst many new tools which have still yet to all launch coming at you at the revamped fantasy national.com for what you need to know very quick it’s 144 Manfield not a

Signature event this season so all of the world’s best players are not playing in Phoenix but it never needed the designated or signature status to begin with because Phoenix is one of the very few tournaments despite being like the best Super Bowl lead in possible that

Actually held its own on its own merits it didn’t need to be a major it didn’t need to be a WGC it didn’t need extra money Players liked going and it obviously has the most attendance of any golf event or potentially even especially over four days for a sporting

Event in North America every single season it’s a whole thing unto itself so it made a whole lot more sense now to make that signature event either Tory Pines or Pebble Beach to make sure that people flood to those fields we’ve even seen it with Tor that still draws pretty

Good Fields Phoenix drawing even better Fields make the designated event Pebble Beach then all of a sudden you get a very Scenic Pebble Beach I’m filming this before I know what the hell is going on with the weather Sunday in Pebble Beach or Monday Pebble Beach or

What’s going on with that tournament it could be 54 holes it could be concluded by the time that you are watching this either way getting the biggest names back to Pebble Beach was so big they didn’t need that in Phoenix the big names are going to show up the fans are

Going to enjoy it nonetheless and then we get everyone back together next week at Riviera before we get you know basically what is a bye in Mexico then to PGA National and the Florida swing kicks itself off at the road to the master so I had said it a few weeks back

That this four-week stretch is especially good for for what you want to do try to out runthe sims.com by the way if you want uh some Super Bowl stuff I believe we’re making the site free this week you just need to put an email to get in there and if you’re looking for

The full preview for the Waste Management Phoenix Open the complete breakdown with all the visuals and the write up the newsletter the Mayo media newsletter is where that is going to be located you can sub for free on substack Mayo media newsletter or just hit the description you can find it all down

There right now all right and if you miss my interview with Michael Kim that is out both on the Pod feed right now on the pat Mayo experience and on Mayo media Network I was fascinated talking to Michael uh for the 45 minutes that I

Got him um so I hope you guys really enjoyed it as well share it around you know sometimes if they see one player has a really good time on a show maybe another player will come on the show and all of a sudden you know I can be like

Low rent Pat McAfee talking to like low rent Aaron roders on my show but about golf it’ll be perfect right yeah i’ like to be getting those $30 million paychecks probably not going to happen for me but you know $30,000 payche checks there we go now we’re talking

Something I you know is is reasonable for the pat Mayo experience all right let’s take a look at the Course TPC Scottdale in Phoenix the par 3es have an average distance of 188 yards but there are two that are over that at 290 192 not 292 192 and 215 those are

Two of the four most difficult holes on the course um number seven between the the green at number six and the tbox at number seven if you are a first time spectator and you’re looking for a good spot to just absolutely chill pound some beers and see a ton of action coming in

You get to see that approach shot on number six and then the tea offs on number seven where Ricky Fowler made a hole in one a year ago the six iron is a great spot to hold up overall it’s 7261 yards as a par 71 they used to

Designate this as Bermuda grass but with you know poet trivial because of the time of year that’s coming they’ve just gotten rid of the Bermuda grass designation thank God because is like when you try to pull an API feed and try to get updated things and everything to

Automate itself on a website um then it would say Bermuda then’ be lump it in with all the Florida courses which it has absolutely nothing to do with so uh it’s POA trivial so POA putting but faster POA than something like the American Express uh five of the holes on

This course have a par rate of at least 69% and all three of the and all of the Power Three sorry all four of them are included in that 11 of the top 13 finishers in this event last season gain Strokes on the par 3es now that was an

Elevated event this field is not quite as strong again still very strong just not quite as strong as a year ago the power fours there are 11 them on this course with an average distance of 440 yards but they’re segmented pretty well there are five of them between 400 and

450 there are five of them 450 to 500 five of the most difficult holes on the course and then you have the shorty number 17 which has the water on the left where you need to go attack that hole we’ll earn that in a little bit two

Of the three hardest holes on the course are power fours and they come early on the back nine that’s holes 11 and 14 and then the F like the closing holes 15 16 17 and 18 you can see Wild swings on those holes number 15 is a par five uh

That you it’s going to have like over 70 water bottles on it over the course of the year it’s a lot like number 18 at the TPC Twin Cities for the 3 open where the risk reward I mean the risk is worth going for because most people do

Get there and have those Eagle opportunities but you could technically go Eagle then you have obviously the very famous number 16 it’s not a hard hole if you don’t get rattled then you can make birdie there you can make Eagle on 17 and you you could make bogey as

Well I suppose if you go into the water but that can be a birdie hole has like a 39% birdie rate and then even number 18 on the closing Hole uh you’d think it would be a bit more difficult but no you can make birdie it’s below

And we’ve seen tons of we had that playoff with Klay and Sheffer where they just kept missing putts over and over on the 18th that’s the one crappy part about the playoff in Phoenix and I know it’s to make sure that the tournament gets concluded earlier because of the

Super Bowl because you do not want to bleed into the Super Bowl because then literally no one will be watching your event whatsoever you want that conclusion to finish as soon as possible well as close to as possible as the kickoff of the Super Bowl but if you can

Finish yourself like 45 to 30 minutes early I feel like that is the perfect window but it does have a 16% birdie rate so you’re looking at the final four holes 38% birdie rate 177% 38 177% a 3% Eagle rate sorry a 2.3% eagle rate on 15

1.2% on number 17 and not a ton of Bogies to be had to be perfectly honest with you when you take a look at number 17 I always thought in my mind right that you would say hey it’s a drivable par 4 this is a spot to gain back

Significant Strokes on the field because it’s so risk reward at only 332 yards every player in this field can take a crack at that t- box because you know with the water looming on the left you know both eagle and like double bogey are in play but that’s not really the

Case originally I I I really assumed it was the ultimate risk reward because that’s what you want from a short power four but players made Power 40% of the time when they go into the water on 17 and considering the field makes birdie over 38% of the time and Eagle more than

1% of the time like there is literally zero incentive to lay up in 2020 51 balls found the water 63 landed on the green and if you have a two and five chance of making par anyway if you go into the water there is legitimately no

Reason not to take aim at this point unless you’re oi Schneider Jans I suppose then you put it into the water one of the best clips of all time on this course but it’s you just have to go for it you you have to be as aggressive

As possible so some of the key things that I wanted to look at for this course uh when we’re really take and just to briefly talk about the power fives three of the four easiest holes on the course obviously all of them held a two 2.3%

Eagle rate or higher uh 15 being in that hinge hole that I just talked about and they’re always meaningful but somehow sheff for lost 2.1 Strokes to the field on power FES last year in his repeat win at 19 under uh for draftking Showdown if we jump over to Fantasy national.com we

Can kind of take a look at the layout of everything going back to front it’s just a minor Edge this week uh I wouldn’t go out of my way to Target it if it didn’t feature players that you wanted to play anyway but as you can see holes 16 SE or

Sorry 17 18 and one I’ll have birdie percentages of basically 16% or more where when you get to 8 n 10 you have birdie percentages of 12 15 17 for number 10 which is really nice but then you have the hardest hole on the course at number 11 so you’d probably have to

Figure it out at 8 9 10 9 10 11 those percentages just are not going to work into your favor so if you can find the wrap around 17 18 one because then know number two is a bit more of a tricky hole although the birdie percentage

Isn’t all that bad for it the bogey rate and double or Worse rate is a little bit higher for number two so maybe you can squeeze it that way too if you know birdie 17 bird 181 or even 181 and2 seems more plausible at least in my mind

Uh than some of the other ones let’s take a look at how the top 10 finishers even out unlike a lot of courses uh when we kind of dig into the course stats themselves you really notice that approach and putting are generally 3 to 4X what driving and around the green is

There is a legitimate full emphasis on TD green play and I was trying to think like when you take a look at the past winners so the the past winners of this event Sheffer has won backtack years Brooks web fower Woodland Hideki back-to-back years Brooks what are the commonalities between some of those

Players well 11 players who have won in Phoenix have also won the PLAYERS Championship which is really strange because you think besides being TPC courses and having a ton of water on them I suppose that there’s not really a ton going on there you can lay up off the tea at TPC

Scottdale you can and I don’t know you can go less than driver you can it just it’s it’s bizarre um why that’s so much the case um Scotty shefford joined that list a year ago because he won the Players champion won both in the same year and it’s actually 12 because if

You’re like cus you know you count Hideki is having had a win at the Players Championship in 2020 and obviously he has the two wins in Phoenix as well but I was trying to figure out is it like there are a like the hardest holes on the course are the long power

Fours you can beat up on the power fivs you need to make Eagle on some of them okay but some of the correlations that you would have between like TBC The Players Championship like the Windom Championship is the first thing that comes to mind because there’s a lot of

Crossover winners there but despite having a few crossover winners between Windam and Phoenix that’s kind of really it like that’s all there is because when you think of Saw Grass you think Windam when you think of Windom you think of Sony and Heritage and Colonial and that’s not really jibing at all but

Again listen to these names that pop up Woodland hm web Brooks okay what do those guys have in common well they all won the US Open um that seems strange but you also have sheffler who has a top seven finish each of the past three years at the US Open

Hideki matama who has two top five finishes in the past five years I believe it is Ricky fower has three top five finishes at the US Open Brooks obviously he has won multiple us opens he’s won here twice so there is some sort of emphasis on being long off the

Tea being a very good driver of the ball like Webb is kind of weird and a weird outlier in that sense and the year that Fowler won he made a ton of putts but they also have the rest of the game to go along with it right they have a great

Approach game they have a great around the green game and I think that’s really the critical Factor here because this course features a ton of chip-ins if you are bad around the greens although these are Big greens you want to hit as many greens in regulation as possible as you

Would want to do it every course but you can really do it this year but a big driver and a great around the green game can make up for a lack of an approach game in Phoenix at least that’s what we’ve seen bear itself at the very top

Of the leaderboard over the years and I was just trying to figure I don’t know why it never jumped out to me that guys play well with the US Open actually play pretty well here you can see the historic cutline last year with all the

Best players it was plus one so it did play a little bit tougher the two years previous to that it was under par for the first time since 2013 so expect it to be plus one even minus one maybe minus two uh with this many players in

The field but nothing crazy this week driving accuracy a little bit lower here obviously gigantic waste areas off to the right and left uh green and regulation percentage this week uh 67% higher than tour average scrambling percentage a little bit higher you can have some really low scores here uh but

You again there’s a ton of water there’s cacti all around uh I’ll let Michael Kim talk a little bit about what he had said uh in his experience of Phoenix and how he’s planning on attacking the course for me the driver is the most key thing

If I’m driving it well I know I’m good so in my mind I’m always kind of looking for the certain more difficult t- shots um like 11 water up the left and Cactus on the right um 13 is the water on the right par five and and Cactus on the

Left there’s I think um Scottdale there’s a lot of trouble on the left side I would say at least on the back nine um like 11 um 17 and 18 even that kind of tracks like you have to figure out hit a driver hit a driver a ton and

You can see it has the highest average driving distance uh for any course on the PGA towards 295 on average over the past 5 years but the past three years it’s up around 35 which that makes the longest then it’s TPC Summerland so there is some sort of TPC connection cuz

I was trying to run through all the connections so good US Open players good short game winners of The Players Championship and the other time we isakov Tom wisoff design that they play regularly on the PGA Tours TPC Craig Ranch so that’s another one that we can

Look to the bunny Farm uh for the Byron Nelson down towards the end because we’ve seen a little bit of cross over there it’s a place where sheffer’s played well Hideki has played well we’ll see how Jason day does in a little bit but those were the few things that I

Wanted to talk through um as we kind of got through everything very easy putting course as well uh that’s not something that you would normally think about here but there was a year where what was it it was Fowler posted the best putting performance of his career the year that

He won but beyond that uh when we try to think about like feet and putts made and things like that uh 10 15 to 25 fet the fourth easiest on the PGA tour a make rate of around like 18% I believe yeah it’s 18% and then you have there was one

Year at this course where players made 81% of their putts from inside 10 ft which is just crazy and diametrically opposed Pebble Tori and Riv all of the events around it which I just thought was very funny uh and maybe that’s why someone like cheffer can win at this

Event like you have a really good TD green game that’s going to save you a ton of strokes and then you start thinking in the back of your mind what it is that is a bit of the differentiators that yeah t green will make up more than putting overall and if

You can make it a little bit easier on the greens for some of these guys and it does even itself out a little bit and sheff for can compete he makes a ton of mid-range putts anyway likeed it’s really the short ones that give him the most problems before I ramble on too

Long let’s jump over to the tournament history so we can get a better sense of what has happened over the past few years look at that benan already leaping out at the top I know it’s because it’s in alphabetical order but either way I

Love to see benan up there I bet him the year that I went that was in 2016 I believe he came fourth that year so that was fun him and Louie again two players with really good T2 green games overall just another thing to kind of look at so

I’m really going to be waiting that heavily when we take a look so last year Scotty sheffler is the champion he beat Nick Taylor by Two Strokes he matched Nick Taylor the 65 on Sunday the second best round of the day he was better than Taylor Just Once in the four rounds and

That was on Friday where he fired a 64 Sheffer led the field in proximity from 150 to 175 a distant distance range that all top nine finishers gained in on on the leaderboard when we take a look at The Strokes gain so we can take a look

At a little bit more of a deep dive man if Scotty shord is going to gain 4.2 Strokes putting in an event he gonna win that that’s just write that one in Nick Taylor had a fantastic putting week buttia green you can see like that just Sheffer Thomas spe Hatton he’s on live

Now and then Xander again guys a US Open Champion guy who crushes the US Open every single year he doesn’t have the win but he’s up there Jordan spe um obviously again another one Justin Thomas good Us open track record all up there Windam Clark there he is came 10th

Last year guy who just won the US Open so very interesting to see it up there uh duffner and Vegas had played really well T green but they could not putt to save their lives spe um is actually off to a pretty strong start I don’t have

All the pebble numbers in yet because obviously they have not finished or started the final round as of yet however um if he could putt here he’s been close a few times this would be a nice spot for him to get it on the go we’re not going to hear from Hatton

Again Xander’s putting has just really let him down uh that and going double water uh to lose us our five better or three Banger on prize picks on Thursday at Pebble Beach he is need to step on to 18 a power five and not put it in the

Ocean and not only did he put in the ocean he put in the ocean twice just needed a birdie to win us her ticket pal figure it out hopefully it kills his odds a little bit I doubt that that will end up being the case so that’s what

Happened to year ago oh hot fire dialon forelli uh ended up coming what is he 14th here last year good for him he just won overseas a triple digit so hopefully a few people out there had dialon forelli tickets at the brain open bran open Brain open whatever it is give you

The brain so that was against an elevated event field so 2022 is more reminiscent of what we should see this time around the gala had this in the bag and then he put it into the water on number 17 we were watching this in real time before the Super Bowl cuss threw

All of his support behind the gala the first time he had ever seen him he’s like oh I want this guy to win instantly went in the water could not script it any better Klay lost in a playoff that year two Scotty Sheffer Scotty shot 62 on Saturday that was two strokes better

Than any other round by any other golfer during the tournament that was the only round where he beat Klay so what you’re seeing from Scotty is like three pretty good rounds and then the one outlier round to bury everyone of the nine that gained five Strokes with the putter in 2022

Um five six of them cash top 10 paychecks so that’s always interesting to know you can see Justin Thomas up there again norin Hideki there’s Fitzpatrick Keith Mitchell is another one Max hom um Keith Mitchell with decent results of this he has the top 10 that’s his best result he does have a

T16 in 2020 as well Brooks um had the infamous chip in on number 17 just storing back and beat everyone this was sort of like the return of Jordan spe in 2021 he was crap for like 18 months and then he shot I think it was a 61 in this tournament uh entered

Brooks was five back of Jordan and Xander going into Sunday and shot his best round of the week a 65 a seven or sorry a six under and the other ones had their worse spe was 11 shots worse on Sunday than he was on Saturday but it

Did set him up to be a lot better throughout the course you can see Justin Thomas third third t13 8 and fourth I mean I’m probably going to bet Justin Thomas this week I really hope his odds just aren’t Dreadful I have Justin Thomas at Pebble as well um although I’m

Currently winning the small $200 gpp on DraftKings Shad out fantasy National again just helping me out I kind of want the tournament to be over but I also have Justin Thomas on that team so I would like to have Thomas to have a chance to win the tournament so I could

Win both that and my outright ticket of Justin Thomas but that might be getting a little bit too greedy but I might have to sacrifice every single outright bet that I have this year if I’m just going to continue to clean up on DraftKings

And prize picks if you want to get in on the prize pick street by the way you can hit the description that brings us to the uh the match link but code dop prix.com get you a deposit match of 100 bucks so you deposit 100 bucks you get

100 bucks I mean if you want to do it with 20 bucks you can do it that way too deposit 20 bucks get an extra 20 bucks then you got 40 bucks so that’s what happened in 2021 in 20120 web Simpson chase down Tony feno and beat him in a

Playoff he was 15 underpar Friday through Saturday and only two under power on Thursday and Sunday uh 22 of the top 25 finishers gain Strokes on the par 3es that’s what kept Fen out in it he gained four more Strokes on the par 3es than web Simpson uh we have the

Water log 2019 Edition when Ricky fower finally came through he was the round one leader with a bogy 364 then he fired his third best round two at 65 uh he shot 74 on Sunday double bogey on five triple bogey on 11 but did rally back to

Catch Brennan Grace who had taken the lead which was amazing cuz I had live met him that morning at 200 to walk won and all of a sudden he was in it and then all of a sudden he was out of it uh cuz rookie F stormed unfortunately the

Eway played pretty well on that one he posted his best performance of his career on the greens nine and a half Strokes game putting and you can see some of the other players that were up there that year Thomas coocher sunjay Woodland was seventh that was the year

After his victory in 2018 ditto for Shez Shez lost to Gary Woodland in the playoff and he has not made a cut since benam was top 20 that year Hideki with a very good so overall the best players at this tournament over the years past five

Years at least in terms of Strokes gain total JT shafley sheffler Hideki sunjay H fower horel cooch who got a ton of TV time Saturday at Pebble Beach for I guess he was playing with wam Clark so you had to keep him on the screen it just weird

Hadwin JT Poston Jordan SM wam Clark Seath toalla in only two starts Fitzpatrick in only two starts an in only three and then you have someone like noren within top 10 as a part of that mix Nick Taylor and Sam Burns uh each with top 10 a year ago uh Patrick

Rogers was was that Taylor Moore with a T14 in his debut as well Nick Taylor had the second but he had nothing coming into that before same as Sam Burns where he really had never performed all that well in Phoenix but managed the top 10

From last year let’s take a look at this field let’s dig in a little bit to the field like I said it’s a very good field uh and even to kind of go through everything that we’ve talked about so far you can see that I have my model

Loaded in right now but just to talk about the field very briefly uh we have a lot of big names at the tournament this year I I really like it Sheffer Victor Xander no Klay this time around Matthew Fitzpatrick Brian Harmon Max hom wendam Clark Tom Kim spe the Galla

Cameron young Sam Burns sunjay Glover fer JT JT Poston Eric Cole Min Lee bananan Kurt kittama Daniel Hower bger Eric Cole Grio so like I said Fantastic Field Adam Scott is playing in the field Adam shank as baa my guy who plays every single week except for Pebble Beach

Because he was not allowed in that field either way he’s trying to play as many events as possible so continue to expect to continue to see him at every tournament till he starts qualifying for every signal signature event maybe he was in the field this week didn’t just

Never really popped in my mind to someone that you wanted to take maybe I should can kind of go back and revisit that there is a very I mean I mentioned Daniel Burger there is a surprise player in the field now check this out was there’s a blast from the

Past Bud collie is playing in this field Bud collie has not played a PGA event since well the fortnet in 2020 I believe it was still called the Safeway open at the time of him actually playing in that which is just insane to think about uh

He has played two two times on the cor fery tour so far this season and he has uh two top 35 finishes which is nice he did not play in Panama this time around I’m just happy to see the guy back I believe he was in a car accident

Or had wrist surgery or something happened with Bud Coe but he is back in this tournament first PGA event for the first time since September 13th of 2020 it’s been a while um very good player overall I mean we all used to love playing Bud cly on DraftKings so maybe

He can gain what he used to do well and you can see what he used to do well not always the greatest putter not always the greatest driver generally very good irons but immaculate touch around the green like the guy might as well be in Genesis he has the invis visible touch

Here so but Co just curious I’m not betting him or anything like that I’m just want to see where he is going so a very stacked field of 144 top 65 and ties make the cut I’ve set this now as my default model which you can do right

Here on fantasy National you can pinned your model uh so we’ll go into manage the models you can see the ones that I have active right now Waste Management good at top well that’s always fantastic to know when we’re thinking about uh how we want to make picks this week so

Here’s what I got cooking for the picks uh we mentioned the 175 to 200 I’m going to change that to the 150 to 175 mainly because I feel like that’s where the longer hitters end up going and I do kind of want the longer hitters to be in

That buck and as I mentioned uh nine of the top the top nine on the leaderboard all finished inside the you know good in that bucket last week you can actually go amend all these now too uh I actually do prefer the sliders to tell you the

Truth uh where I can just kind of slide make things like visually look appealing to me of the way I want it but if you do want to go in and just mess around uh with everything and put the actual net on that has to be 7% you can do that now

That’s all fixed on fantasy National so we’re cleaning it up we’ showed you some of the new tools and we have even more tools maybe an app coming very very soon so Strokes gained off the te got 19% Strokes gained approach 24% Strokes gained around the green 15% I didn’t

Want to use all of just teag green I did want to see reflective of how they do in each one of those and this is the weight that you kind of saw when I went through it on the course breakdown of how the stats actually translate out a little

Bit opportunities gained isn’t approach that that’s around 7% power five I’m going to decrease those a little bit one thing that I did want to add because it kept popping up is par 3’s gained just par 3’s gained overall um we did notice that the vast majority of them are 175

To 200 at this course so we can kind of bump that up to 7% we’ll decrease down par fives a little bit so we got 18 23 14 uh you can see this up on the screen right now if you’re watching the video version of this and you can go make your

Own fantasy national.com once again um it’s so fast now uh you’re really going to want to use it uh you probably don’t need Eagle I guess yeah with it eagal percentage 2.3 or more in a driveable part for we’ll keep that in there and we probably

Don’t need to lock these in um so yeah instead of the proximity range I put in the keyp part 3 range of 175 to 200 proximity range 150 to 175 uh is where I’m at right now so let’s uh I clicked out of it by accident

So what I want to do is let’s see opportunities gain 7% power fives gained 10% power fours yeah so I didn’t hit save on that because I’m an absolute goober so I changed the proximity and I want to add in that par three stat so

Par 3 is gained 175 to 200 where we at right there and like I said we’ll make the proximity range around 8% and then that around 8% drop down power FES a little bit because we have Eagles up there as well which should double a

Little bit putting I do have at 5% as well so now we can update the model itself load it in and see what we got cooking I don’t have a mixed condition model ranked yet I probably always have one stat in there everything from last

Week but as you can see down the leth hand side of fantasy National you will get the course conditions of how this course is played over the past 10 years as a percentage of what we’re looking at in terms of firmness hitting Fairways you can see hitting Fairways has been

Easy difficult and average depending on the day uh the rough length is generally average 88% of the time they play around it is average 81% of the time they putt on these greens it is fast 19% is average and 100% of the time it’s been a

71 so all the way down you can take a look at that you know 81% of the time of rounds at this course are played in calm conditions moderate wind 177% of the time 2% does it get above 17 miles hour so very infrequently do you get that

Much wind in the desert another new feature which is just super easy to use so the model rank over the past 24 rounds in Phoenix well if it wasn’t looking good for Scotty anyway it’s looking even better for Scotty now he’s number one in the model rank first off the te first in

Approach that’s pretty good 27th around the green first in Opportunities gain sucks at putting but putts pretty well here I think this is probably maybe beill ends up becoming his best course but let’s see in WM Phoenix Open three starts yeah the past two years when he’s

Won 5.1 Strokes gain putting 4.2 Strokes game putting getting nine Strokes on approach last year too you didn’t really play all that well um yeah we have the waste management so we can see his wins sorry that was WM then 2022 yeah so that’s what we’re looking

At for him on that front so 23 2022 um let’s see just to go take a look at his breakdown in 2022 just to make sure it all lines up perfectly yeah there we go he lost Strokes on approach in 2022 that was what it is and he

Gained 6.5 on the greens he’s just been annihilating the green means uh it’s just it’s so weird that he putts so well here so it is the best putting course in his career that’s uh that’s dangerous but if and we’ve seen it go with his first start here it went the other way

And that didn’t turn out to be all that good so maybe if it just reverts back to like two strokes game putting he’s not going to win this tournament Victor is number two Xander H Cole list Doug gim Glover benan Daniel haberger JT Poston Van royan btia Michael Kim Ryder Lowry

Hideki Hustler collie although those stats are from 2020 Ryan Mory Gala is up there as well you can see like around the green very good you would hope that his approach play could be a little bit better but it’s a you he’s a good driver he is fantastic around the greens can he

Get his putter hot enough a lot of the time he can he has been struggling a little bit on the POA but again it’s been mainly on the shorter putt so hopefully the mid-range and the easier putting inside 10 ft at this course can help him out a lot

When we try to kind of scroll down a little bit like Xander around the green hasn’t been great lately uh but everything else just checks every single box that you would want to be looking at uh the par three range over that time hom L spe e root and Xander Schley uh

Burger is up there as well another player who has been very good at us opens over the course of his career kittama is there but does not rank out very well this week for this tournament you know middle of the desert not super Coastal that’s probably where you don’t

Want Kirk Kama what else did we want to look at here proximity 150 to 175 coming in Glover Xander baa baa is approach has been like bad but his around the green and driving have been great generally speaking you think of bti as a really good irons player uh and he has been

Good at the firmers and the Sony uh just the shotlink stats are all so messed up and wrong from the data source at the American Express just kind of alleviating those so he’s like bad to end the year with his approach play but generally like that’s the strength of of

His game is his ball striking now that he has this long putter like he’s not an abject travesty on the greens anymore so maybe btia time there we go I mean anything I need to talk myself into betting baa I’m going to do what are his

Odds suppose we can take a a look at that take a look what his odds are how was Burger the last time around terrible at the farmers better at the American Express not sure where I’m at with burger right now um usually a good POA putter though so he should be good at

This tournament we can kind of take a look back at Burger in a second how was he done at this tournament over the years I have a recollection of him being like okay at this tournament uh WM A ninth a seventh and 11th a 10th okay so

He has been very good at this tournament over the years very good on these greens so if you can get the ball striking back up a little bit that would be very very nice uh WM Phoenix Open so here are the odds let’s see coming in where is baa we’ll take a

Deeper look at this towards the end baa 100 to one all right good I most definitely bet that so easy game bet baa win money hopefully that will end up being the case again this week so the best players off the tea Sheffer Vegas benan Victor havin Max Homa we can kind

Of take a look to see how this did as well uh when we’re taking a look at the time machine so let’s take a look at the 2022 time machine uh and try to rank our model versus how the actual finish came in uh let’s see here we had ROM as the

Best player that year would have rated one in the model that I just built you can always go back and look at the time machine for all of the stuff it just gives you I have it set to 24 rounds it gives you the 24 rounds before the 2022

Tournament um and it’s still early in the year so we can take a look at that so he he was number one in the model he came 10th list was number two he came 53rd so he made the cut that’s nice Klay third lost in a playoff Thomas fourth

Came eighth Burger was bad Henley was 33rd Hideki was eighth hogi came 14th gu came 26th right this wasn’t bad at all duffner Victor and wise would have ranked out pretty well but they did all missed the cut so that’s where kind of the breaking point was Louie did well

Meo was H Meritt was pretty good so was Rogers the winner was at number 19 so Sheffer was number 19 coming into it that year but overall like not bad um because you’re going to have a fair amount of Misses on a lot of these especially when you’re just looking at

Stat rankings that aren’t always drawing from the same context earlier in this year because some of these stats go back to the end of last season like August and July obviously not so much the same as we’re seeing now so last year Rory was number one homo was number two Tom

Kim was number three so it was very bad at the very very top him then you had ROM did great sunjay did great Xander did great and then sheffler did great seu did pretty well as too for a guy who was probably way back in the odds eth

Came in 23rd you know JT Jason day uh it started 11 the the model Lov Jason day then he ended up coming in fifth Windam Clark was inside the top 20 came 10th Fina 14th so not bad not great because it really missed the very top three players but everyone else was actually

Quite good so that’s intriguing to see we’ll take one more time warp Back Time Warp number 20 21 back in the year 2021 how did we do Brooks was seventh in the model he came first Xander was third he came second so that’s always good to

Know Thomas was first came 13th Rah was second came 13th so everyone until you got to number 17 Chris Kirk in the modeling made the cut that’s always good that included names like verer Matthew wolf web Simpson zot tus back then Ryan Palmer 16th game 42nd Sam Burns SEIU

Again was still rated very highly that year Henley was way up there Keegan was way up there and then even after Chris Kirk we didn’t have another miscut until number 31 in the power rankings which was Ryan Moore that year finished 121st so good to know um you know that

Includes names like norlander and I mean Stanley had won those tournament before but that was more of a ball striking exercise at that time when he couldn’t make a putt to save his life like Ortiz 20th in the model fourth overall Grio 18th 22nd so just that was the year it’s

Probably the year that I put in the note uh good at the top so again trying to figure that out that’s a way that we can do it and if you are looking to draft some season long teams to go along with that planner that I talked but we do

Have the underdog ADP underneath the section of uh the tournament selection right now if that’s what you’re looking for so again hopefully it can work out really well the the deeper names that come in here Doug gim Ben Anne Lucas Glover and that’s over the past 24

Rounds we can always do different sample sizes um we saw that 150 to 175 did pretty well so I’m going to let’s go past 12 rounds and we’ll just add some things to the mixed condition model right now now and just try to figure out if there are certain things that do we

Said approach around the green D does really well uh if we do pass 12 rounds and try to just look at the overall rankings Brandon Woo is a new name on that list post and pops up again and then there’s baa all of a sudden the

Galla gets a big rise as does Patrick Rogers Michael Kim our guy 18th in the model rank when we take a look at it CU he’s sixth in opportunity’s gained the driving is the thing that could hold him back but the approach has been top 10 in

The field you know he’s better than most of the field around the green so that’s always important to know I don’t know if he’s going to win we might have to Auto at him uh going forward if Min wo Lee could hit an approach he would be so

Good here but it’s devastating how bad he is on those things so one of the things that we saw pop out the proximity 150 to 175 so let’s try to find hot players in those so we’ll add that to the mixed condition model we’ll say proximity 150 to 175 over the past

12 rounds and we’ll add that in and we’ll get rid of this one that we had in there before because that was from Pebble Beach so you can see uh we just update the mixed condition model and we’ll be on our way we’ll just show you

Uh what comes from 175 150 to 175 in proximity from the past 12 rounds I do want to take a bit of a longer view on some of these stats so we’ll do past 75 for past 75 rounds for some of these other ones to get a better sense of

Let’s say 170 to 175 to 200 par 3es I do want to add that one in so we’ll add that in to the mixed condition model par 3es 175 to 200 pass 75 rounds boom put that one in we’re also going to put in uh Strokes gained around the Green from

The past 75 rounds as well so players that have been historically very good with Strokes gained around the green so we’ll make those 275 uh and then we’ll put in in proximity 150 to 175 hot who is hot in those R we’re looking for the

Hot we want some hot deals we want to find some hot guys hot guys on the course that is statistically from 150 to 175 so we have the shortterm there and the long term for those other two I also want to find players that play the power

And we’ll make that past 50 rounds let’s say power fours 450 to 500 this is just a different way cuz we we’re going to bring back the rolling report really soon uh it just it was really hard to parse over when we translated over the

Site but this is actually kind of my new favorite way to do the rolling report of my main model because now I can look at it from different time periods in some of the places that I need to find so that’s great news uh we’ll do strokes

Gained off the tea the same in that range we’ll go where Strokes g off the T right there pass 50 rounds for that and we’ll throw in Strokes gained approach from that same range as well past 50 rounds okay so that’s what we’ve looked at from just the mixed condition

For just the model for the Mixed condition model now let’s go to The Strokes gain model that I have where it just shows you just very rudimentary things and you can just kind of see let’s go to TPC Scottdale and we’ll click on the filter and we’ll apply the course filter

For that uh and we’ll get strokes gain total we’ll call this the course history one uh over the past 50 rounds ah let’s take past 12 rounds the past three years n maybe that’s not enough let’s go past 24 rounds because we’re going to take Strokes gain total past 24 rounds uh at

This course so we can throw that one in we’re going to take Strokes gain total at this course only TPC Scottdale throw that into the mix then we’ll wait it all afterwards we can see on average if we just take a look at average Strokes gained total Sheffer Thomas uh Taylor

Moore is up there that’s only one round or four rounds from him benan is up there as well what were Ben Anne’s odds good God I’m going get sucked into this guy again oh 50 to one that’s fine that’s basically what he was this week in an elevated event H give me even

Deeper odds so the gala bet him just probably bet the guys that have been betting Thomas the gawa benan and baa be on my way that that’s the lean that I have right now and probably have to do an auto on Michael Kim our guy coming through it all now so Strokes game

Putting at this course alone I am going to throw that in I won’t wait it a ton so pass 24 rounds at this course only for putting uh we’ll throw that into the mixed condition model as well Brendan Todd the Galla Davis Riley this is a on

A per round basis uh coocher Scotty shefford inside the top five for strokes game putting out of course is nuts horel fower noren Tom Kim that’s only in four rounds Zack Blair kittama Poston Poston could actually be a really nice look here this week because there is something to maybe it just doesn’t

Translate you know One V one all the time because even when we’re just looking at winners it’s not a huge sample of players so obviously he has not won at the Players Championship but he has some good run at the Players Championship over the year translated over he won the

Windom he won the Heritage he’s a part of that Loop which should correlate a little bit to this one and he has puted well so maybe he is a guy to look at this time around Burger Burns is another one Burns having a prettyy decent week

At Pebble as well um he had the sixth place finish here a year ago and again after before that like it wasn’t good at all yeah six 22nd he had a miscut in 2022 but yeah Okay g 10.9 Strokes putting and came in 22nd Place that seems almost impossible how bad you

Would have to be at almost anything else take a look at it the other way any good players like Bez sucks on these greens that was only in two rounds so maybe it was just a bad two weeks for two days for him Lee Hodges Brendan woo Who

Popped up in that short-term modeling had a bad putting stroke here a year ago uh list I mean he’s always a bad putter Lowry he’s generally a bad putter Grio generally a bad putter you’d think Lowry would be good here if only because he plays Desert Golf really really well on

The European tour and just doesn’t get a lot of chances Again by the way pretty decent US Open player we go back and kind of take a look at some of the US opens over the years we can do that too we can take a look at uh a few of them

Just kind of go back and see if there’s some names that pop out that way uh but for the WM Phoenix Open yeah just it’s been bad for him I mean he had a six Place finish in 2016 when he gained 4.2 Strokes that would be nice and what has

He been doing he played pretty well with the farmers I mean he had an albatross so that will help your approach so he probably actually lost Strokes on Approach at the South course outside of that one shot to have the outlier shot the chipping has been really good the

Chipping is usually pretty good uh the putting has been better as of late uh probably not going to be my lean but interesting nonetheless Shane Larry I’ll keep him on the radar you see there’s Ricky fower there’s a top five minwoo was up there had a top five Tom Kim

Harris English Okay eek root was another one top 10 at the LA Country Club onoa so another interesting Factor Fitzpatrick has started to play well at this course Denny Keegan hadwin hadwin was someone who came inside the top 10 a year ago at this course so we had a good

US Open at the country club which felt like more of a real like a real US Open style of course there was Woodland again Damon played well obviously Sher came in second Xander Scott leechman Tom Kim up there so maybe Tom Kim should be more of

A look he made his tournament debut a year ago no first time player had won or even really played all that well uh since we had Brooks win in 2014 uh just other names at the US Open Brooks Harris English is Harris English even in the field this week English

Harris English is here how has he played at this course very good US Open player apparently Harris English who knew always kind of forget about him WM uh used to play it really well had missed last year the approach play has been really bad just really hasn’t got it going all

That much the driving before Farmers have been really good I’ll have to kind of do a deeper dive on him after Pebble Beach concludes to see if he is actually someone that we want to take a look at so if someone does perform pretty well

Here put them in the back of your mind for the US Open coming up this year as well uh I just want to take a quick look at that so what do we have in the mixed condition model right now did I throw in the putting yeah I do have putting oh

What I want to look at was Spike putting percentage love this tool so Spike putting percentage at this course we set the factor to two um so players overall Spike percentage at the course now they’re very few wow okay so we have it in reverse here that’s why why so the

Players who have not played you can see all of them and there’s a weird reset here strange um so players 50% of the time Tom Kim is gaining more than two strokes putting per and this is per round two strokes or more theala Ramy and that’s the gal so four of his eight

Rounds he’s gained two or more Strokes putting in a round Fowler and Todd 38% over 24 in 16 rounds n Smith 38 Zack Blair 33 and eight and six rounds Tom hogi six of his 18 rounds have been two strokes or more potting gained on the green Sheffer in his 14 rounds almost

30% coocher kittama one and four is up there so now we’re in some of the lower tiers Sam Ryder has gained in five of his 20 rounds on the greens Two Strokes or more over that time totally spaced on how he did anywhere I bet him at Tori so

I can tell you he probably didn’t do anything but see Sam Ryder he missed the cut he did miss the cut good ball striking week though at least at the South course played okay at the American Express had it really going through the end of the year and end of the Swing

Season just never capitalized but the putting has been pretty good here who are guys who just have a very low percentage sew does not putt well with this course all that much neither does Grio yeah they just don’t have the spikes in them you’d like to see more

From benan in 20 rounds only two of them have been two or more but maybe we can get maybe the putter has been fixed a little bit now that he has the big old broomstick so interesting to know of guys in sort of other categories we scroll down Strokes gained approach uh

Spe of guys with like more than two rounds he’s at 29% Hideki Sheffer Thomas kittama kid only has the four round spawn Lashley Lashley someone who plays this course pretty well overtime had a very good Tory Pines obviously we didn’t see him this week hubard Kevin Stadler

Who is a winner here Luke Donald uh and Gary Woodland Doug gim Ricky F at this course by themselves all over 15% gaining Two Strokes per or more per round uh on their approaches so again just another thing that you can go and look at but now what we’re going to do is

Clear all of our filters on the left hand side you can just do that and easily see what you have applied at the top and now take a look at the results of the mixed condition model we are going to edit it and we’re probably going to wait putting

At the course Let’s see we probably don’t want to wait at 100% but just around there Strokes gain total at the course we’ll call that course history you know approach means a lot means more than that driving means more than that just as a skill set we’re going to take

A look at that longer term par three around the green I’m going to rate just a little bit below approach and driving I’m going to have approach above driving that key par 4 area I’ll match on par with the par thres that’s this is what I

Like about the sliders you just going to be like I want to wait like these three kind of the same I want to wait this one the most I want to wait these two around the same then these two around the same which are on par with these ones on the

Side if you are listening to this I mean obviously it’s not great you want to see the visual representation of this so I’m going to Lo load that in and now we can see some of the players that will rank out both with the model uh and whatever

Uh one that we have on the go for us now that we have that in there because we want to put back in our Waste Management and try to see how we’re doing over the past 24 rounds and we’re going to reload the page just to make sure the MCM can

Take uh from time to time it just kind of gets mixed up a little bit and make sure that everything went well for that yeah so we have all of our waiting in for the Mixed condition that’s weighted out perfectly so Sheffer is number one in both now so the mixed condition model

Rankings Sheffer Xander Burger Fowler and top five Hideki hom Thomas havin Bud collie Glover Cole M so all the names that you would basically expect Windam Clark didn’t do well in the model but does great in the mixed condition model I wonder if there are any more outliers

In that sense Poston does 11 And1 28 in the mix condition who kind of reeks Grayson Sig is inside the top 25 Sam Ryder Brenan Todd probably all due to putting you see Brandon woo actually does pretty well 25th in the overall model 20th in the mixed condition model

Baa top 20 in both the gala top 21 in both gim is still up there Tom Kim Callum Taran is top 35 in both as is Mark Hubbert and Michael Kim and Gary Woodland although those Woodland stats go well back into what we want to be

Looking at so all right I think we’ve uh done a pretty oh Bunny Ranch let’s take a quick look at the Bunny Ranch the other wise cof course just to see if you if we see any striking similarities between what has happened uh since it’s mooved there and some of the similar

Names e root man so we saw eotp pop up at the US Open we saw ekro pop up in some of the stats that we were looking at how did he play at this tournament last year he probably wasn’t in this tournament last year now was he and WM

Phoenix U let’s see has he ever played here tournament history Stone Cold Steve Austin eot eot 316 was 64th in his debut back in 2022 so nothing to write home about but interesting to see his name pop up in a few different places now uh and you know that he’s going to be

Towards the back end of the field so CT pan is another one I don’t know if the panal is one of the ones I don’t see CT pan in this field I don’t see why he would be in this field but maybe he is totally forget yeah he is in this field towards

The very back end no idea how see how the pan H the panal and all the PanAm Maniacs out there Heron came Ninth at Sanderson Farms fourth the Byron Nelson has just been terrible kind of ever since so probably not quite in the form that you would want from a CT pan Vince

Norman at a heavy driving course interesting stuff martyo I don’t believe he’s in the field obviously Hatton left Jason dayve was fifth in Phoenix a year ago there’s Adam Scott who I think has won in Phoenix at some point in his career we saw Palmer he popped up a

Little bit there’s Jagger again M Hughes Canadians do enjoy themselves some Phoenix Ben Anne Sheamus power Eric Cole uh so there’s hii we take a look at him up there Stevens Tom Kim is another one hadwin as we kind of go Nate Lashley who I said had a pretty decent track record

Uh Brandon woo keeps popping up a little bit where we’re trying to look so that was just last year we’ll see how it did at 2022 at Craig Ranch khle W he was second in Phoenix uh the year previous Hideki up there spe up there Thomas up

There Xander up there Palmer up there so all guys who play well in Phoenix James we know the run that he made the year that Brooks won so funny to see him up there Davis Riley again can we get to Davis Riley this week we probably shouldn’t based on some

Of these recent results so let’s just kind of skip over him for a second norin and there’s Bez again Sheffer Sheamus power Nate Lashley again another name Tom Kim another name who pops up so I if we’re looking for outliers and we’re looking for players maybe towards the

Back end I mean this is probably going to get me on to wrote Sheamus power might be another one that I can get up there with uh Davis Riley maybe I take that chance it doesn’t seem like a very good idea like I mentioned uh Muno just

Is gone he’s not on the face of the Earth he’s on live now I think is he on live now I think that he’s on live he played in the US Open played pretty well in the US Open G eight Strokes on approach in the US Open would

Not have guessed that from Sebastian Muno but yes I guess he went to live because he’s not playing a ton so Lashley lipsky maybe has lipsky been playing he popped up in the mixed condition Model A few times been ass of course he has all right well let’s we

Don’t need to guess the odds as I mentioned we can actually just look at the odds at draftking Sportsbook as they are currently situated plus 350 for Sheffer no one’s betting that he was 17 to one here last year and I didn’t bet him because I’m an idiot I did double

Barrel him in one in one one and done and the team that Tambo and I shared was like first or second place in the one and done for like four weeks after this cuz it was an elevated event and very few people used Sheffer weird so Sheffer

Three and a half to one then we have Xander and let’s see 10 to one Victor 11 to1 Thomas 11 to1 H 12 to1 then it’s a jump top sunjay Burns 2022 Poston 25 gross Windam Clark 28 after a good round Min woo Lee 30 to1 cam young Tom Kim the Galla I’ll

Probably Live start to live in this Tom Kim range at least just in my mind that’s where I can see it Kim Gala I mean fits at 40 is a good number uh he had a very bad Saturday at Pebble Beach but like whatever he’s won the US Open

He’s played well here decent enough form coming in 40 to1 like are we really saying that listen JT PO is having a nice little run right now but he’s 25 to one and Matthew Fitzpatrick is 40 to1 it’s [ __ ] mental like get out of here with that nonsense benan 50

To1 that’s a good number uh Grio and norin popped up U we can maybe go back to Keith Mitchell if he has a really good day and the rest of my guys play well if I might need dri or if dri wins and and Keith Mitchell can fire like I

Don’t know seven under at Pebble Beach if that’s like a thing that happens if they get in that round and the rest of my guys play okay I think I’ll win the big five do just based on the team that I have but it is Keith Mitchell that’s

Like lagging because he shot even par on Saturday and everyone else went off from the back end yeah we saw baa what is e Root’s number it felt like it feels like he’s going to win this year let’s see if we can find old Austin ecro there he is

200 to one probably a pretty good bet and there’s Kevin you we wanted to find Brandon woo right Brandon woo 300 to one all right so there are names in the back end of the field although based on the names that I read out to you that have

Previously won this event be it Brooks or Scotty or who else won web Simpson Hideki Ricky Fowler even Gary Wood all name brand players there have been very few who have even really contended who have been off the board who haven’t been Staples on the PGA tour for a while like

The only one who was kind of at a left field was Brooks the first time he won it you know Brooks was here that was a that was one of the big like first huge moments on the show and we picked Brooks to win when no one knew who he was we’

Had been following that majors and on the Euro tour and then dude comes over and absolutely annihilates it but um other than that brain brand name player so it might be better to try to look at the E rootes of the world Listen I’ll bet them with like a top eight each way

Or whatever it is uh just based on the longer odds that might be the proper route to go but I do think I’ll try to keep it with the name brands at the top of the board and everything unless Justin Thomas can win at Pebble it’s

Going to be hard to pass on him even at 11 to1 I’d probably want a little bit more and we might get that with an odds reset depending on what happens at the conclusion of Pebble Beach whether they get it in whether they don’t whether it lingers into Tuesday who knows I’m not

From the future based on my picks you can probably figure that out since they never win um or else I’m just very good at pretending I’m not from the future what a business if I you were from the future what a business to be in to be

Someone who talks about bets so trying to predict the future but always getting them wrong thus throwing everyone off your scent I wish that was the case but it is not but that’s going to do it on the pat Mayo experience so smash a like to the episode sub to Mayo media Network

And the podcast rate and review turn on the auto downloads fantasy national.com Mayo that that one andone and season long player planner will be up very soon for people to consume and to plan out their year if that’s what they want to do uh until then you can

Check out all the other shows we got Super Bowl this week more Golf shows me and Jeff on Monday me Jeff and cust on Tuesday I believe is coming Tambo in studio for DraftKings pick it’s going to be glorious all right I’m Pat thanks for watching I’ll see you next time experience experience