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What’s going on everybody Welcome to a very special edition of Prov Pro we’ve got our winners of the free lessons giveaway to announce we’ll get into that pretty quickly also the first signature event of the Season at one of the best golf courses in the world Pebble Beach
So BL to look forward to how you doing Justin good man yeah I was just saying this is it’s going to be a fun week for me because I played there you know just over six weeks ago so I kind of feel like I know it better than what I did
Before um and just what was that your first time playing it yeah I’d never been there before so we played Pebble and spy glass and it was they’re both spy glasses I think a better golf course but too it’s just not the Mystique of Pebble Beach right so I played it I
Played both probably oh man back when I was in high school so maybe 12 years ago something like that at this point uh was a very different golfer at the time so I remember being completely overwhelmed with some of the holes but uh yeah really awesome and of course just when
You go to Pebble Beach it it’s just almost bound to happen almost feels like it should happen we had horrible weather so playing in like sideways rain 30 m hour winds I think I shot like 88 or something that day but I had a direct opposite I had like 72 and barely any
Wind and I was like this place is so easy no problems greens were unbelievable like it was we we got really lucky for our Pebble day I mean the wind kind of died down as the day went on and it was yeah it was pretty awesome I saw that we might get some
Really extreme weather uh in this event on Sunday um I don’t know how true that is uh I haven’t actually looked yet but uh I just brought it up now so it looks like Thursday rain and some wind Friday rain Saturday rain Sunday yeah oh man look at
This so sustained winds up to 38 miles per hour gust up to 60 I’m thinking they wouldn’t be on the golf course in that but maybe if it comes down a little bit uh we could get some really fun Sunday Golf and I I love when you have a little
Bit of this and and I think it kind of changes a lot of the mindset for both betting and for DFS of of you have you combine a no cut event with the with the weather and what you got to look for somebody that might be a little bit
Better mentally I think than than other times we’ll get into course fit soon enough and and maybe we’ll have to rerun the course fit model uh in past years’s when there’s some weather um but before we do that we’ve got to get to the giveaway uh two very exciting
Announcements we have the winners already we can announce the lesson with me at ham Hawk 41 and then the lesson with Justin khart both of those on Twitter so you guys um I happen to know both of them they’re they’re both ftn subscribers so I you know it’s nice
We’re not like in the just waiting for someone to reach out to us to claim the win uh we can reach out to them and get that set up um I’m not sure exactly when we’ll be doing these lessons it also will depend on on these guys and their
Availability but potentially Justin what we could do is if they’re game for it maybe we record the lessons and kind of post them and you know who else out there there’s bound to be someone else out there I should say that’s you know struggling with the same type of thing
In the swing or the short game so maybe it would be kind of a a communal lesson using these guys as the example something like that so we’ll see what their game for and then we’ll figure it out in the uh after that but uh some really exciting times coming ahead with
Those that should be really really fun so excited to look forward or excited to reach out to those guys and kind of figure out exactly what’s next on the lesson plans uh Justin how did you feel about Tory Pines and Pavone’s win well I I mean I I’ve
Said on Twitter I had when Moran withdrew I went up to thala and down to pavon and still didn’t cash in the 200 single entry so um I guess the rest of my Bild was just that bad uh no he he he went I think that I I saw something
Going in and I kind of had already had my eye on him a little bit um but you know went a long time without winning and now has won what twice in the last six weeks sometimes when guys that are that talented just start to figure it
Out um you can kind of see something steamrolling here um you know I don’t that by the way part of that is is why we’ve we’ve talked in the past about like this skill of knowing how to win and it’s why we say that we can definitively say when someone has the
Skill like a Sam Burns or a chem Smith when they’re when they’re winning way above the expected rate for how often they’re in contention but we can’t say that somebody doesn’t have that skill because said with with pavon like you can go from not winning a ton but if you
Win once you might have it all so we we can say it only in that One Direction which is a really cool takeaway involved yeah and it and sometimes it comes down to getting the correct breaks at the right time too um you know a shot when
You’re in contention that you kind of get a good bounce means a lot more than than a one shot when you’re way outside the cut line right that they both come from the same luck of of golf but the timing of it you know makes a does
Matter and it does change things um that being said like you give yourself enough chances I think the people that are gonna win are are gonna find a way to get it done yeah I agree my so there there were two two big takeaways for me from this
Event the first I think is just a really cool one which is man I love difficult golf courses I I love it from a a fan perspective and I really love it from a betting perspective uh I fired more live bets this past week then I I do like
Typically in a full month um didn’t hit any of them came came close on zot torus uh and as 250 to one zot Taurus each way which I fired early Saturday um but the reason why I did it and and we actually talked about this in the ftn bets
Discord is that when you get on really difficult golf courses the lead itself doesn’t move a whole lot on the weekend like what what do you do you remember what the lead was going into Saturday I don’t I know I’m pretty sure he shot three under the last day and maybe maybe
He just shot three or four under the last on the weekend I think he may he may have only shot like one under on on Friday I keep wanting to say Saturday but on Friday the third round um I think he I think he played good on Sunday to win oh absolutely yeah
I mean you you’re exactly right he was so pavon was three under on Sunday uh or three under on the weekend including three under on Sunday sh even on Saturday U but you know the lead itself might have been 10 or 11 going into the weekend and then it finishes at 13
Whereas if you get on a really use a golf course the lead might be you know 14 going into Saturday and it finishes at 27 or something like that so guys who are far behind on difficult golf courses have a much much much easier path to getting back into contention which is
Why I fired those live bets uh I I had a bunch of live bets at like 250 to1 with the eways uh which which basically were priced as if the lead was going to go to 20 and not stay right around that 1213 number uh so didn’t hit any of them but
At the same time I think we we saw exactly why they were positive expected value bets so if we get on more difficult golf courses the weather at Pebble gets pretty crazy this weekend maybe we’ll be firing some more of those so I yeah I think they also too like and
You know this you know competing at a high level is they can make they tend to make the golf course horses a little bit harder as well maybe firm up the greens a little bit when at places they can um they won’t be out there mowing the rough
On the weekend you know that that’ll all be done pre- tournament generally speaking so um you know you get a little bit of that plus the pressure of winning and and the situation and you kind of add it all together and that’s why you get these harder golf courses where you
Know a place like last last week you know PJ West where you hit it kind of all over and still make a birdie right the greens are soft there’s not much rough you can’t can’t do that Tor so yeah we we also talked about that with
With Dunlop a couple weeks ago which was like on on a golf course like that where there’s just not a whole lot that you can mess up outside of the the water uh it makes it a little bit easier to stay in an attacking mentality which I think
We saw joerger really struggle with I thought joerger uh got a little bit protective at times and kind of paid the price for it yeah I I was still overly with impressed by the way he played last week because his his past to me has always seemed like he plays better in
Shootouts and not not a harder golf course so I think that you know I think there’s a there’s a lot of positives to take from what he did um the other thing is that people will hear us talk about a bunch of high leverage shots you you
Know the easier golf courses you know a couple weeks ago you had maybe two or three High leverage shots in the entire round whereas Tor you’re hitting them almost every shot is t- shot is a high leverage shot because a good t-shot puts you in position to score a bad t- shot
You’re begging to make bar yeah so um I think that’s the big that that’s a really big deal for for what we saw and and and I will say that about Pebble when we played it it seemed pretty easy but there are more High leverage shots than you kind of get it
Give it credit for on TV um even uh like eight it it doesn’t seem like there is but how far you can push your golf ball down that Fairway makes it much easier it’s pretty easy to hit a three-wood then you have 220 or whatever
In but it you know if you can get it all the way down to the end of the Fairway and then all of a sudden you’ve got seven or eight nine iron like you got a chance to make a birdie so um even this even the simpler shots are a little bit
More High leverage than what I think that watching it on TV gives it credit for yeah I like that call um last point on the on the last couple events that we’ve seen we get this incredible story in Nick Dunlap winning as an amateur first time since 1991 when Phil
Mickelson did it now we get pavon first Frenchman to win uh on the PGA tour do you think that there’s a case to be made that because Liv golf has taken so many quality players from the tour that it’s opened the door to have these like really cool stories so for example
If if Liv hadn’t existed would there have been somebody in that American Express field that beats dun laap and and instead of having the first amateur win we’re talking about how great he was to finish second or third but now we don’t really get to see him for the rest of the
Season uh same thing with pavon maybe pavon doesn’t get the win it’s instead Taylor gu or Cameron Smith who got the win something like that so uh as bad as Liv is in some ways maybe it has created this Avenue to get some really awesome stories I mean to say that it doesn’t
Matter would be as aning right because the fact of the quality of golf that they’ve taken from the PGA Tour is so high I mean Hatton not playing this week is is crazy I really thought this would be a really good week for him and to see
Him not not play um I see Dunlap took our advice and went ahead and turned Pro as I said before the SE before the show so um I’m pretty sure what we said had nothing to do with that but uh the right call Imagine in an interview he’s like
You know I was actually leaning towards stay and then I saw these two guys on a show pro pro and made a good case for it so uh but no I I think I think that all of this happening has to the PJ tour has to be thinking
About what did we do wrong and we’ve backtracked what do we do now because I somebody had an interesting take which I didn’t think about but not only have they stolen a a lot of talent they’ve stolen almost all the personalities yeah so like all the personalities are now with live there’s
Not much you know like who’s the biggest personality now on the PJ tour havland like just because of his like you know you just lost all that probably like the the speed JT crowd I think but yeah but yeah I I think I think Liv was very
Purposeful in that I think they were trying to take the personalities I think they were trying to like take going after Patrick Reed was very specific you’re you’re taking the villain from the tour because people like to have a villain something like that so another one to Phil Mickelson like they they
Knew he would I don’t think they expected him to play high quality golf like I don’t think that’s why Phil Mickelson is over there but they knew that his draw and his personality um have and speaking of Phil have you seen all the stuff he’s doing with some of
These young pros and just helping them I saw he was working with Hayden Springer after Springer made the cut um and then yeah that they uh obviously I’ve talked about him the last couple weeks he he works with the same instructor I work with and stuff
And I saw I posted something of working on short game stuff with Phil Mickelson after the round on Saturday or Sunday one or the other so really cool of him to take time to go out I saw if you follow that Monday Q info on Twitter he’s good friends with Mark Baldwin
Baldwin went out and played with with Phil so he’s doing something to to to get kind of give back which I I think it’s really cool I think without our inside knowledge of golf people probably on the outside don’t really iiz how much he’s doing yeah that’s pretty cool I I I
Saw the the one with Mark Baldwin wasn’t sure why but yeah if he’s doing it with with the number of guys that’s that’s very cool uh maybe we gotta do some investigative reporting and figure out what the full story is there break it to the people but um let’s jump into course
Fit for Pebble Beach I have I have stopped writing the course fit articles on Mondays uh in large part because we want people coming here to the show for course fit which means we’re going to get a little bit more into the details of the course fit model by the way we
Replac the course fit model with an ownership review a DFS ownership review so um something that I had been doing all NFL season it was a pretty popular article so we decided to do the same or a similar type of article for PGA we will also in that article for
Subscribers only uh about once a month we’ll put some really detailed data in there on the type of plays that we should be using in DFS like hit rates for chalk at different prices different price ranges I should say so that’s going to be really valuable data we
Don’t have enough data at this point in the season to to draw some really strong conclusions yet but certainly we will uh for anyone who read the chalk report throughout the NFL season it’s going to be a very similar article to that so uh very excited for that the rest of the
Year but in terms of course fit this is what we have for the week we’ve got um a a slight emphasis on distance off the t a slight D emphasis on accuracy off the T iron Play Slightly up compared to average and then a very strong emphasis
On both around the green play and putting this week so a a quick reminder the the way we’re now presenting this data is any positive number means the metric is more predictive here than usual any negative number means it’s a little bit less predictive and the other way you can think about this
Is on a you know on an average week on tour you would expect a one-stroke difference in any skill level let’s call it driving distance a one-stroke difference in skill is going to translate into a one-stroke difference in actual score on average on the golf course Plus 23% for distance means the
The talent Gap that ordinar ordinarily leads to a one-stroke difference here will lead to a 1.23 three stroke difference so it basically just says Hey peble Beach separates the men from the boys you can really separate from the rest of your competition if you are strongest in the fields or in the
Metrics this week that are the most predictive so distance around the green and putting especially and then I’m also going to throw approach play in there because we have gotten rid of montere uh Peninsula this week it’s just spy glass and Pebble and monter peninsul was stealing some signal away from approach
Play so now that we’re concentrating on just these two golf courses and we get three Pebble Beach rounds I think approach play comes to the Forefront just a little bit more than it has in the past Justin how do these numbers compare to your initial impression of
Pebble Beach and why do you think we’re seeing the spikes in the categories that we are um I I am a bit surprised uh by a couple of them obviously the putting I understand but with the greens I think that being said it’s because the greens
Are just so small that basically if you hit it on the green you feel like you’ve got a chance to make it a lot of times so I think that’s where that you know that’s directed um I think another one there I think another one there for putting is
That there are a lot of holes where you’re unlikely to get a really really short putt it’s more likely that you’re going to end up in the five to six foot range or you know a 15 foot birdie look the putts that we’ve talked about previously like they’re they’re the most
Stable aspects of putting where you’re not really going to see many you know 50 foot bombs go into the hole this week where a lot of the time you do which has a big giant change to Strokes gain putting for the week but there’s no way to predict those this week the putts
That are GNA be made are putts that we can actually predict whether or not the guy’s gonna make 100% And that yeah that’s the biggest deal it’s like it’s it’s not so much luck right I know that sounds dumb but I I say it all the
Time with putting like you get to a certain point no matter how good you are like it becomes if you make enough of them it’s just luck yeah I mean that’s what we we talk about all the time with the the Jordan Speed Factor right of how
Many times he just seemed to make long putts at the right time that seem to be luck which directly opposite doesn’t correlate at all with how good he’s been at Pebble Beach yeah agree so how about how about um off the tier are you surprised to see
Distance kind of go to the Forefront here um yeah kind of because of the your high leverage shots of the par fives and stuff I can see where it really matters I think that’s where the driving distance yeah because I when I got done
Playing it I was not like oh you have to be a balber to play here I think a lot of this also depends on um the rough and how high the rough is because there wasn’t a whole lot of times I hit it in the rough and I was
Like I can’t hit this on the green right so I can definitely see the difference of like hey hit it down there as far as you want because the rough isn’t there that being said there’s also a bunch of shots where you can only hit the t-shot so far no matter
What I I think part of it too and I I I was a little bit surprised not necessarily because I was thinking about the course but I know what the field what the industry thinks about Pebble Beach and that you know the industry doesn’t believe that off the performance
Matters a ton here uh so people certainly won’t be flocking to bombers for example um but I think that’s more just a reflection of the type of fields that we’ve seen at this golf course the past few years because it’s been an unimportant proam you’re not getting the strongest players in the
World and which means you’re not getting the longest players in the world because distance is such a predictive part of golf that you know the best players in the world hit the ball further than the average PGA Tour player so because we’ve seen some not very long players have
Success based on the fact that they’re not playing against the best players I think the the impression that people have been left with is you oh you don’t need distance to be successful here and you don’t if you’re strong on and around the greens as the course fit model says
You can compete with anybody you can absolutely compete with the bombers but it’s also very true that distance is an advantage here and something that you can take advantage of especially if you’re somebody who’s not just long but then also strong on and around the greens yeah and and you’ll me I’m pretty
Excited about this week and I I think most people know that I can’t stand no cut events like I think it’s dumb um not a fan at all but if you were gonna pick a place in a golf course to see three rounds instead of two on the golf course and the whole
Overall value of the just the watching experience of this is I don’t mind them doing this here yeah I don’t know if that makes sense or not but like the I think the AMS are only playing two rounds this year and you’re so you’re going to get more of the actual test of
Golf they don’t have to worry about setting it up at so easy for the am and stuff like that so like I I can get behind this week more so than most no cut events there’s also nothing worse uh from like a DFS perspective than
Sweating a guy in the cut line when you can’t really follow his round at all because there’s no shot tracker on the golf course and the the feature groups are like showing one of his shots in the entire round or something like that so yeah in in that situation too or from
That perspective I also don’t mind the no cut events even though I’m right there with you for the most part we want a cut golfers want Cuts it’s just a better product so hopefully that gets fixed in the future but in the meantime let’s go on two Best Bets um I don’t
Think anyone’s going to be surprised with my first two bets son thala Kegan Bradley both 70 to one thala is super interesting and worth further discussion because we have theala his fair price is like 26 to1 and we’re getting him 70 to1 with an each
Way so I want to go a little bit deeper into thala’s game the very first thing we’ll say is notice just how perfectly thala’s game matches up with this course fit model he’s long off the tea he’s an accurate off the te he’s pretty good with his irons but that’s not special
He’s Elite on and around the greens so part of this is that the gala once again is just a phenomenal fit for the golf course but there’s more to it which is this if you ask 10 different you know PGA analysts 10 different successful PGA betters how they balance long-term form
With the recent form in their own PGA projections you’re probably going to get 10 different answers but at least nine of them are going to be some combination of I use this amount of long-term form and this amount of recent form across the board we do things a little bit
Differently at ftn where we’re treating each aspect of the game differently where we’re looking at a different balance between long-term form and recent form for putting as we are driving distance for example different balance between uh long-term form recent form for putting and approach play and
It turns out that there’s a lot less weight to like the extremely recent form in putting as there is in off the tea performance so let’s just use that as an example now it’s it’s different throughout the bag but um that’s the most severe difference with putting you
Have to go to like the last 44 rounds or something like that to get the most predictive recent form sample whereas off the T you can look at even the last four rounds so theala hasn’t had the best two weeks in his last two events we all know this but interestingly where
He’s been bad has actually been on the greens around the greens things that we know long term are going to be his strengths where he has really done well lately especially this past week at Tory Pines he had one of his best driving weeks almost of his career he gained
1.18 Strokes off the tea last week at a really difficult challenging golf course and one that we talked about you know a lot of those t- shots are high leverage shots so to see him succeeding in a way off the tea that we haven’t previously we know his strength on and around the
Greens is going to come back I’m not worried about that at all so even though he hasn’t had the finishes we want and a two we sample like let’s also remember he was second at the century so it’s not like he’s come out this this entire season struggling as just the last two
Weeks um but the way in which he hasn’t succeeded oddly enough is exactly what we want to see from his game to project him even better going forward than we were a few weeks ago uh how do you feel about theala I I I mean I think he’s got
The the ability to have Elite Talent I I mean obviously the course fits perfect for him just everything you said and and I think like the common sense factor of putting is is not as as recent form I mean that you know you’re putting on different greens
And the fact of the matter is sometimes you read certain greens better than you read other greens you’re just more comfortable at a different spots so the fact that he hasn’t puted that great um it’s doesn’t matter like you said he hits so many good t- shots on high
Leverage shots that it’s it definitely makes you think that he’s going to contend sooner rather than later and he played pretty good to even get inside the cut um the second round like I mean he hit a lot of really really good shots and he kind of he made that I think he
Chipped in maybe for eagle or hit made Eagle somewhere and it kind of got him going um I wouldn’t be surprised to see him contend I I do worry a little bit just a high spin guy like that if it ends up being as windy and as rainy as
As they say it’s going to be that that you know that’s going to lead me a little bit other direction just because it is he does play with so much speed and so much spin um it’s going to be the same you know the same kind of idea for
Keegan right yeah I I think so I would I would maybe counter the weather point with if we do get that kind of weather that might just put short games and putting like even more at the Forefront because everyone’s going to have to get up and down uh from difficult spots so
Uh maybe that would actually help him but I do agree with your point um on the spin in the wind um the last thing I want to say there is just the like the overall point I want to make here with the gala is look we’re not just being
Stubborn by betting him again and uh you know we’re we’re seeing value again and then also it’s not that the model isn’t reacting well enough to what he’s done in the last couple weeks the model is reacting to what he’s done in the last couple weeks it’s just that it’s a
Little bit counterintuitive it’s reacting in a positive way to his bad performances because of the way in which he’s failed so for anyone looking at that like man why are they betting Thal again hopefully you now understand that look I I’m not just like okay betting him again I’m really really excited to
Do so yeah and I well I mean I definitely don’t blame you I think he he there’s gonna it’s gonna click all at once and we’re going to see him contend in these Elite Fields a little bit more often so yes a similar argument for both Keegan and staka we seeing um seeing
Plenty of value on both of them once again and then the other two bets I have uh I should mentioned Keegan 70 to1 straa 100 to1 Cameron Davis 125 to1 Lucas Glover 150 to1 all of my bets this week are eway bets uh I believe four of
Them three of them are on BET Rivers so it’s one5 of the payout for top six and then uh the others are bet 365 which are one4 payout for five spots um the Lucas Glover call is a very interesting one to me because you know
Uh when we build a lot of lineups this week just to kind of switch into the DFS the the side of it is as I build lineups you know I feel like it we talked a little bit about this of a kind of a stars and scrubs type of week right
So um I think that getting Glover down there you’re going to get people that think so much about putting that I think it’s going to drive his ownership down um he reminds me a lot of your bet last week on zalot torus right if he goes out
And hits it like he’s capable of hitting it he can contend here no matter how bad the weather is yeah yeah Glover so this Glover’s like one of the toughest guys to model I think on tour right now because he had that incredible stretch towards the end of last season where he
Had four weeks gaining a ton of Strokes putting those were like the only events that he did that you know it’s not like he built up to it throughout the season with better putting he had four really strong weeks there were even two bad putting weeks mixed in there and then
His putting went back to what we’re custom to seeing which is he’s typically losing a little bit sometimes losing a lot sometimes gaining Just a Touch so uh I don’t know how to feel about his putting but the thing that he did do consistently last year is B strike the
Ball he was excellent with his irons he was quite good off the T and he did that again at the Sentry where he lost a ton of Strokes putting but he was excellent ball striking particularly with his irons um so from a ball striking standpoint I don’t think anybody that
Good TI green should ever be 150 to one and that’s kind of the thesis of this bet and then if you do get any sort of Spike from the putter great but from ball striking alone I think he should be under 100 to one and I would I I was
Referring to perception more than actual right with the putter like his perception of the way that he putts is bad I think when he switch to that broomstick like you you know he’s using that um what’s that direct direct force or whatever it’s called lab the lab Putter and the broomstick style it
Really helped him like I mean he got it from Adam Scott and it really made a difference so the perception and the reality I don’t think are the same and for the record while making this bet we have him projected to lose about a quarter of a stroke per round to this
Field with his putter so the thesis of this bet is not hey we think there’s a chance that he’s he’s actually a good putter now no no no he’s he’s popping in our model we have him at 1.4% to win um which is about like 70 to one Fair odds
And that’s because of his ball striking and his volatility like the the chance of him putting well basically just means that he’s a high volatility player now because his range of outcomes with the put is a lot wider than we used to believe it to be so that’s why he’s
Popping as as value to win not because we expect any type of good putting performance yeah no I and I think once again it kind you you hear all these other names and I haven’t heard his name come up much and I I can get behind like
You I mean perfect example like you said he has the ability to go out there and out ball strike the field I I’m guessing that you’re pretty much behind the 125 to1 Cam Davis bad as well yeah I mean once again it’s just a guy that if his talent aligns with
Playing good this week he he’s not going to stay at that number forever you know he’s going to be he’ll live in the 30 to 50 to R 50 to one range I think pretty much throughout his career once he breaks through we have him as the best
Projected player under $7,000 as well on the DFS side of things this week I’m guessing he’s going to be the chalki player under $7,000 as well but it’s a you know it’s a no cut event so his ability to make birdies and Eagles really comes to the Forefront even more
Than usual so uh I’m probably going to label him as good chalk even though you know typically under $7,000 uh maybe you don’t want to eat too much chalk down there but he might be an exception to that rule uh let’s jump into the DFS side of things now
Unless you have actually do you have any um outrights of your own I haven’t put I haven’t no outrights as of now and I haven’t really do into that much yet um you know I messed around a little bit with the DFS side of stuff and and um
And that kind of deal but I haven’t gotten into any outrights and and generally speaking I don’t play a ton unless just because I can’t get the numbers that you have available so it doesn’t make much sense for me to play them I’m not just going to give away
Some of my equity in these you know in some of these bets so it’s probably a good thing that I don’t have access to him because of the live betting feature of like hey like the same thing you did last week you know where you just like there’s so much
Equity in these guys with the changing of the situation so fast in golf tournaments especially at hard events I just be watching um that that being said I I’ll definitely bet the matchup against Klay pretty much whoever it is like there probably isn’t an odds that I will not
Play because it’s going to be one of the top three the hin probably havin first and it’ll probably be pretty close to a pick him so uh I haven’t seen so you’re betting on Klay or against against Klay and that’s strictly because of what I
Saw last week I mean he hit it so bad and he was hitting those left shots and to even to even play as good as he did I mean I think he shot all three rounds over par after the first day and even to
To score as good as he did was a miracle I mean he hit so many balls that should have gone in the hazard that just barely stayed up and then he’d chip it to two feet or whatever I mean just there was a lot of Fool’s Gold I thought
Now I know that being said like he probably projects better I know he’s played good here um that’s just the way that that’s the difference between you and I right is is the kind of the eye test of what I saw and and knowing how he was getting away with shots that he
Didn’t deserve to I I’m so glad that you went to K laye this way because number one he kind of reinforces the point that we were making early about earlier about how we can take signal from like the last four events from driving in a way
That we can’t from putting kentley had a bad Miss left off the te it was his first event in a long long time losing Strokes with a driver in fact he lost about half a stroke per round with the driver it was his first time since holy
Cow I got to go back uh into a different year um first time since the FedEx St Jude Championship August 14th of 2022 that he lost Strokes off the tea it was his worst driving performance since March 13th of 2022 at the Players Championship that’s how much he
Struggled off to tea last week and to your point like that’s something we should care about um so and from a DFS perspective we get a really really interesting situation at the top of the board these Strokes gain numbers expected Strokes gain numbers are relative to this field we’ve got Rory at
Plus 1.4 Sheffer plus 1 .2 havin plus 1.1 shafley plus 1.35 then there’s a massive drop off there’s nobody else even at s in this field ownership is not going to reflect that so from a DFS perspective I think this is a week where you want to
Consider heavily going all the way up to Rory or Scotty sheffler particularly if either of them ends up projecting for quite low ownership I think there’s a chance that either one of those guys Rory or Sheffer because of just just how much more expensive they are than everybody else could slip through the
Cracks and end up being like six s% owned in single entry something like that which I would have a lot of interest in but there’s also a route that I might go both havind and shafley just say hey I get two of the four golfers who are Head and Shoulders Above
The Rest of the field this week and then you know because it’s a no cut event as you were talking about backstage like that fact in and of itself already points us to stars and scrubs lineups and now we get this massive difference between the best four and everybody else
So we might really want to lean into that this week yeah right now my initial build gets up to hland only um because I’ve got some guys in the middle that that I I think I mean I like you know I’ve talked about Fleetwood and and
Speed and day and and with the weather and and everything that’s going in I that’s where I stand right now that being said we’ll see what happens and you were talking about day in large part because you know he’s going to be low owned correct yeah yeah
Yeah just because um I think he’s a good fit here I think he he’s GNA play good here and I think that so many people are going to give up on him after last week I I talked in the ownership report this week so again if you if you haven’t
Checked that one out yet I recommend doing so but I talked a lot about sah thala and Keegan Bradley and I mentioned them because they were two of the guys last week that we had projected for far more ownership than the industry thought they would have this week my initial
Impression is that they’re going to be quite low owned and the point that I made with both of them is comparing their like top five odds to their ownership last week they were just pretty clearly bad plays now there was a way to play them there’s always a way to
Play chalk you can use chalky guys particularly if they project well like these guys did last week um by surrounding them with contrarian upside if as long as you do that you can eat pretty much whatever chalk you want to but this week now of a sudden they’re
Both going to have top five odds significantly higher than their projected ownership I will be surprised at this point now again this could obviously change if ownership changes I’ll be very surprised if I don’t have both fala and Kagan in my lineups again I don’t think that’s going to surprise
Anybody but the thing that I hope you guys realize is this isn’t stubbornness it’s just that they project really well I didn’t use either of them uh in DFS last week and more than one out of my three lineups uh so this week they’ll probably be core plays reacting to the
Change in ownership and when it comes to that like I’m going to be the one that’s going to be doing something out of stubbornness probably not you just because of the difference in analytics and and the way that you think about something I would be I’m the other side
Of that whereas if I were gonna go back to somebody or do something like that it’s gonna be because I’m stubborn so just full transparency uh speaking of stubbornness one guy that I have been stubborn on in the past is Adam Scott he’s projecting quite well obviously hasn’t played a ton I believe
His last event was in Jaan in October um but finished last season really strong with excellent performances at the St Jude and the oh actually no that was uh I’m looking at the previous season so uh oh he played in Dubai um about a week ago so he’s he’s actually played a
Decent amount through the late winter early winter um and he’s playing well like I think if you look at his finishes he’s played Euro so T5 at the Bermuda followed by six at the Australian PGA T4 at the Australian Open and then seventh in Dubai those are a little misleading
Because the fields aren’t as strong he’s basically been gaining around uh one to one and a half Strokes per round um which means he’s in pretty good form and maybe better form Than People realize so assuming he’s as low owned as we currently have in projected around 7%
How would you feel about Adam Scott he’s projecting quite well for us he he’s once again he’s going to come down to you know the he he’s got the ability to ball strike it around the golf course I’m not an I don’t really have an
Opinion one way or the other of him this week I don’t have really a strong enough feeling to say hey I think you should do this with him I couldn’t tell you like if if you’re like hey I’m gonna play him in DraftKings I there’s no part of me
That’s like hey you shouldn’t do that but there’s also not enough draw for me to want him to in my lineup for sure now I’m not saying that it can’t build into it but it just it it didn’t stick out to me that’s fair um the thing I’ll add
About Scott is that he’s a really strong course fit much longer off the tea than I think a lot of people realize yeah he’s getting up there in age but he’s actually getting longer uh with his age I’m not sure what kind of speed work he’s doing but whatever he’s doing it’s
Working in terms of his distance and then you you think of Adam Scott and you think of this incredible just beautiful world class all-time Classic golf swing well he hasn’t been that accurate off the tea and he hasn’t been that good with his irons his strengths have actually been distance around the green
Play and putting so a much better course fit than I think a lot of people will think of uh for Adam Scott based on you know what you think of with Scott is not necessarily actually his strength yeah no he hits it really far and the thing
That I I like about him just as far as the golf goes when with it comes to ball striking he has the ability to hit it really high but he also doesn’t play Within just a ton of spin like you think about some of the other guys you know like a a fenale
Type that just is just spins in an overwhelming amount so um you know that that side of it for the for the non-golf expert can you elaborate a little bit on why you care so much about spin rate in the wind um it just your margin for erir
Goes down so much with the more you spin it right so the more you spin it whether this be S spin or just pure Back Spin the the higher rate that you spin it at you get two problems your ball goes way shorter into the wind and way further
Downwind so you have a big discrepancy of total distance and carry um and so therefore like when it when it gets super windy and it’s really difficult and it’s you’re already hitting at the small greens your margin of error just goes down so much that I’m
Going to I try to lean with guys now the there’s a lot of guys that play really well that spin it a lot that don’t hit it super high which I’m a big fan of like a guy that can hit a four iron that
Kind of appears as a as more of a bullet type but it’s still spinning a lot yep yeah and the the thing I’ll add to that is Into The Wind downwind spin def definitely makes it harder but in a crosswind a lot of spin will actually
Help the ball hold its line at times so uh I I think the other Factor here is the ability to work the ball in both directions and to be able to flight the ball how you want you need to be able to hit the ball high or low and then if you
Have spin if you have a lot of spin like if you can shape the ball into the wind so in a left to right wind hending a slight draw and a right to left wind hitting a cut uh that will also help um in the wind and counter any spin issues
Now that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s it’s a good thing for theala for example because we know theala just wants to play the ball left to right predominantly so if he gets into like a strong left to right win that’s also a little in his face he doesn’t really
Have an out for that so I do agree on that Forefront and that’s why you see a lot of these guys um hit three you know you’ll see a long into the wind Par Four and people are hitting three-wood off the te and you get questioned a lot of the people ESP
Especially that are big time left or right players will carry a three-wood that’s a little bit more hook biased and therefore they’re just basically saying hey this is a really hard golf shot for me and I have to do something to counteract it yep yeah yeah there are
There are a lot of guys who can’t really move the ball right to left as a right-handed player with a driver but they can with three-wood so you’ll see that in certain wind conditions you’ll see that on on holes that just call for a right to left shape uh Scotty Sheffer
Is somebody does that a lot yeah it’s pretty common that’s just the way that the technology has gone with driver now is that it’s so different than it used to be right when we when I was a kid you were taught you want to draw your driver
And and fade your irons you see that pretty much has worked kind of the opposite direction now because of the technology that the technology you can spin your irons more and you can spin the driver left just through technology alone not even the golf swing yep all
Right last thing one and done we didn’t get the the performance from shofy that we wanted it looked like we were going to get that for a lot of the week he just seemed like he was playing the golf course a little bit easier than everybody else just wasn’t making putts
And then man did that just explode on Sunday he couldn’t make a thing uh so it feels like we’re a little bit behind the eightball but also we’re just finally getting to the Signature Events so get a win this week all bets are off you’re at the top of the leaderboard anyway uh
Where are you thinking for one and done because admittedly I kind of have no idea where we should go um let’s start off with we’re we’re basically one Sunday from either Poston or cha of being of having you know a couple of top three finishes um I like the way that
Both of them played at the time it just didn’t kind of go their way when we needed it to so like looking back at that pick I don’t want to I don’t in any way regret the decision to use sha on I think he finished ninth right or
Something like that so there’s like I I still stand behind that decision and think we did the right thing I absolutely do too um but we got to get this week right or or at least kind of get get things going in the right direction where are you
Thinking uh my initial my initial thought with the weather and everything that’s that that I’ve looked into was hland um it’s a good golf course for him it’s a guy that controls his flight it’s his chipping is drastically improved um over the last six or eight months um I
Know that you we talked a little bit about the the move from his instructor and and understanding that I’m not sure what’s going on there as far as because I think he’s the one that really helped him chipping wise um that was my initial thought here uh was somebody like was
Hin and then after seeing um the num your numbers of the top four being so much higher than than everybody else uh that that’s kind of where I stand right now um outside of that I haven’t really I don’t think I have anywhere else I’ve I’ve looked into I mean I I
Can I can make a case for spe I think would be another one that I I like both of these calls I I’ll start with havind um I I definitely like the concept of using one of the guys in the top four can’t use shley so would be one of the
Top three in Rory Sheffer or havland um the one of the reasons why I like that thought so much is because I don’t think we’re going to see this large of a divide between these top four and everybody else most weeks I think part of this is course fit I think it’s also
Part of recent form like Kent lay is eventually gonna figure out the driver and once he does he’s going to project a lot closer to these guys um I think both JT spe uh both of these guys you know they’re they they haven’t had the best form especially Justin Thomas over the
Last year but we’re seeing much better play from JT of late so a couple months from now he might be projecting with the top guys in the world as well you’re going to get courses that are much much much better fits from morawa that’s less about around the green play less about
Putting more about iron play and accuracy off the te so he’s GNA have events where he projects a lot better uh speed’s ability to play in Wind and speed’s short game uh does make me think that he’s a strong play here the the decreased weight on W on accuracy off
The te might help spe as well so I like both of these calls um my only hesitation on havland is that I don’t totally believe that he’s become a great short game player yet especially now that he fired that coach that helped him so much in that area so I’m a little bit
Hesitant there but I can also very much get on board because he might not even need the short game if he just completely dismantles everybody else from a ball striking perspective so I like both of these calls I don’t even feel the need to add anybody else into
The mix I think I’m I’m pretty good with either of these guys the only other one that I would consider I think is Rory just saying hey he’s the best in the world by our numbers now um he’s has faren away the highest win odds we’ve got nobody else uh so Sanders actually
Second at 7.9% Rory is at 99.2% 31% chance of a top five for Rory and look like the designated events have so much money in the purse that we’re at the point now there’s no reason to save guys like this is the type of event that you want somebody and I think the
There’s just like going to be this behavior from most of the field that they do still want to quote unquote save guys a little bit they don’t want to just completely empty the chamber this early in the season so I think if we went to Rory there’s a pretty good
Chance that he’d be contrarian uh I think people also want to save him for like very specific events like they might want to use Rory at Bay Hill or something like that they have an event circled for him where they’re not really going to do the same thing with
Havland yeah the the the the argument that I have for Rory right now that I think is the the fact that he is sheffer’s not in form so I think it it makes that Gap from Rory down to the rest of the field even greater yes um that that so there’s definitely
That I just don’t know if I can get behind a guy that just sends it with the weather if I would say if it was going to be a perfect conditioned week I would be almost insistent on going to Rory but with the weather conditions I’m just you
Know I’m not sure that I C can if that I don’t know if does that make sense to you at all like I think that because he doesn’t do much besides literally just send it like there’s not it it makes sense to me conceptually but I’ll cter with this um Josh has some
Really awesome splits that he puts up at ftn each week uh credit to him they’re already up this week and one of the splits is under windy conditions Rory is actually number one in Strokes gain with windy conditions 2.65 Strokes per round Sheffer second at 2.63 their baselines are almost
Identical as well 2.53 for Rory 2.52 for Scotty so uh I I think Rory might choose to just send it in the wind because he knows he hits the ball so purely that the wind is going to touch his ball a little bit less than it
Would other if he were to M hit it a little bit and so that allows him to send it a little more than the most and then it would also say we we have seen him flight irons quite well like if you remember when he won the Scottish open
Last year he did it with that absolutely gorgeous flighted I think it was a three iron on the last so he he does have the shots in Wind even though off the te he just chooses to send it because he can’t yeah and and then the only other thing I
Would say about the chipping with hland is you’re not looking at a bunch of tight lies around the greens it’s more of you know bunkers and and thicker rough where you know as I talked about all the time it’s more bunker shot type you’re not worried about chunking it so
Much so you’re going to get a lot more people that just chip it to five feet anyway no matter what how good of a chipper you are so that that that’s the only other argument of why I think H one stood out the most to me you made the
Same point on Keith Mitchell last year and he did quite well here and and we basically were having like almost an identical conversation about his short game so I think that’s a very good point um we will figure out which of the three SP havland Rory it sounds like we’re a
Little bit more between havland and Rory than we are SP but we’ll figure that out in the rest of the week and and talk about it in the ftn daily Discord for anyone who wants to have further discussion on one and done this week I think that’ll do it thanks everybody for
Tuning in big congrats once again to our winners we’ll connect with you guys to figure out the lesson plan and all that uh let’s have a fantastic week we will catch you next time
