Spencer Aguiar and Byron Lindeque preview the 2024 edition of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf tournament with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.
You can read RotoBaller’s full coverage of AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (2024) here with Power Rankings, Course Preview, PGA DFS, and golf betting analysis each week:
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Boom boom Roa baller Squad we are the RO baller PGA show myself Byron the model maniac and my main man Spencer agar AKA tof Sports back at you for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro amateur signature event over there in Pebble Beach it’s a wonderful week it’s a no cut event we’ve
Got a great field full of spectacular golfers Spencer how are you on this Monday evening I’m doing great you know funny Byron we joke about this off the show like pretty much every single week look how look how tall I am this week when I sit up in the chair I know I’ve
Spoken to you and I say when I met you I could not believe how tall you were it was it was mind-blowing to me because you when you sit you like you do sit kind of you can really you know get away from a bomb if it ever came your way I
Think you probably you’d be the number one Survivor for sure you’re a little cockroach human you but um it’s good to see you stretching that spinal cord of yours out and um we’ll see if we can stretch a few bets out for ourselves this week too um
Before we get into this I have to tell you guys I’m looking like full Mickelson in my Polo over yeah this is a authentic Pebble Beach shirt that I got when I was back in college a broke ass college student I was in a bar wearing my South
African rugby Jersey and some guy was wearing this jersey this shirt he’s like I’ll give you $100 right now if you swap shirts with me that was like three cases of Keystone and and some McDonald’s and I was all for it and now I’ve got this
Shirt I can rock it once a year and that’s why I’m kind of rocking the Phil Mickelson look tonight in the blue Road of ball light so I just figured I’d share that with y’all um it’s one of my favorite little stories and I love this shirt it’s got some good memories from
Back in the day Byron you know you’re in full golf attire here and I and I’m sitting here rocking a Frank Thomas baseball jersey so I’m not even on the right sport right who’s Frank Thomas the Big Hurt 90s baseball player from the Chicago White Socks uh Hall of Fame
Okay I’m going to have to go look him up because I’ve never heard of the Big Hurt So um speaking of the Big Hurt though had a bit of a rough week last week we spoke about old Joseph bramlet as the T20 for plus 750 Spence he missed that
Bet by one shot yeah he he pared the final par five if he booted that we would have cashed our bet with a on the money T20 at plus 750 so we were so close but we just missed out so I had a bit of a bad week but the majority of my
Bets missed out by like one or two strokes so that’s kind of like it’s not like it was a complete disaster just a little bit of bad variance it is what it is off we go you know moving on so how did you do last week I mean that was
Obviously like one of the downsides for me was the bramlet play but it was a really good tournament like it’s kind of what we talk about every single week on this show a lot of people are fixated inside the outright market and obviously it’s great when an outright bet comes in
And like not taking any credit away from that like but it’s been one of these years so far where we’ve had four consecutive tournaments of winners outside of 100 to one it doesn’t mean that we can’t land on those winners but like at the end of the day the ROI that
We’re trying to increase our bankrolls with and that whole structure comes down to just the exposure taking place in markets that are more sustainable so one of a little bit over four units last week uh three and0 in the head-to-head Market I had that big Adam shank plus
155 play over Patrick Klay you hit that for 1.55 units I mean that’s a bet and a half there in the head tohe head market for me and uh had Taylor pendri at plus 450 inside of the top 20 and then uh the last play was one I will credit you I
Know you keep giving credit to your friend there but I I heard it from you and it was Will zalatoris inside the top 40 over at bet MGM at plus 200 which was a mispricing there so I mean I think at the end of the day for me at least it
Was a very good bankroll building week we’ll try to continue it here but uh there’s a lot of variance with this tournament with the weather and there’s going to be a lot that’s going to come into play that we’ll need to discuss here yeah I’m looking forward to
Chatting to you about this because it’s a very um perplexing proposition that we’re going to be getting into one bet that I did manage to hit I kind of faded Thomas dietry and Steven Jer in round three I thought that they would be a little nervy yeah Stephen Jager lays up
On the par five I’m like gosh darn it he’s gonna make a p rips it into the water it’s one of the funniest bets I’ve ever won I I was laughing in my living room yeah just bursting out I could not believe he ripped it into the water and
Made double so cash those too that was fun um but that Wily Z Top 40 was pretty solid most of those were like off the record for me and it was kind of like just one of those weeks right so it is what it is but now going from one storm
At Tory Pines to another that could potentially we could see a field or a tornament end on a Saturday and the following event end on a Monday which is a potential here going into Sunday with I don’t know if you’ve seen the weather Spence it is bananas on Sunday we’ve got like
69 uh mower gust projected for Sunday According to some weather websites out there so regardless of if it’s 60 or 50 anything above 40 mph is ridiculous so I’m kind of curious as to what your take is on a DFS perspective versus a betting perspective do you lean a certain way
When there’s um unpredictable weather like this do you want to just face the field or would you rather take on the book in this example uh I mean I think if we’re talking about the DraftKings or the DFS perspective here uh when variance increases I and and we see ownership and
I do think this will be one of those weeks where ownership is going to condense in a lot of the same spots we that’s an every week answer that we can give but I would say probably even more so this week there may be some of those
Under the radar value plays in large field gpp contest that we can talk about I also noticed that inside of my model there was a lot of players that my model really liked this week um that are going to go low own that it also liked for
Cash games and that’s kind of another interesting tidbit I guess to just point out here when you have a no cut tournament I do think you need to shoot for a little bit more upside even on those cash game sort of Wagers that you’re putting together uh my
Head-to-head players are going to take a very similar mentality here I’m always trying to find miscut Equity not going to necessarily be able to find that now now Sunday I always make the argument that on Sunday somebody could shoot themselves up the leaderboard on Sunday if this tournament plays on Sunday they
Might shoot themselves off the leaderboard yeah into another world they might shoot themselves onto the live t her before this is all said and done but I I’m just kind of trying to take a more aggressive approach in that area there were a lot of players for me that I was
Much higher on than Market consensus whether that be from a DFS answer or a betting perspective there and I think that that’s where I’m going to try to find my edges perfect I I love that example of of kind of just kind of leaning into how your models projecting
A golfer versus leaning into course history I typically try and ask rein form versus course history but this week we’ve got a bit more of course history versus course mystery and I think we’re going to have guys that are really good course fits for this golf course that
Typically haven’t played yet before that might go unowned or unrecognized to a degree based off the lack of course history and then others that have played in much weaker fields that have good course history yeah with tons of top 10 top fives but beating the likes of
Chrisan bade note back in 2021 kind of thing you know like the guy wasn’t a world beater back then on the PJ tour kind of thing so just an interesting way to kind of navigate the course history and find a few guys and avenues where you could imagine them and totally un
Like Monday morning wake up and be like man I could totally see him having played good golf there and and he did so it’s going to be really interesting to see what cooks and Casey in the chat saying Jason day we’re gonna get to him yeah we’ve got some model Combat coming
Up later in the show we’ve got four guys we want going to do model combat in so that’s going to be tons of fun but before we do that let’s dive into some Bal and the Beautiful SP we’re going to take a look at the odd Bo you tell me
Who’s bald and who’s kind of the name under the 20 to1 range there that you think doesn’t have the best chance of those around him I’m never going to ask you who’s not going to win I know you don’t like that question I’ll ask you who’s the least likely for you to
Win the tournament under 20 to1 this week for guys looking to go in that market I thought the worst price on the board was Victor havin and I know that’s going to be probably a controversial take I I’ve noticed and this has been something that everybody always says
When wi comes into play Colin morawa sees the biggest in decrease in his projected stats I’ve never really noticed that inside my model I took him at the Zozo for that reason he ended up winning that tournament hin is the name for me that when you throw these windy conditions
And and specifically at a venue here where I have a decrease in weighted projected proximity returns than I would get from him on a normal week it’s very minor we’re not talking about some like massive deviation to where I’m necessarily expecting him to implode but if we’re now talking about a course
Where you know I think he’s a great driver of the ball and if everybody’s going to be forced into these layup situations and he loses some of that long iron play that comes to the mix and now all of a sudden the proximity numbers go down because of the wind and
He doesn’t hit as many greens in regulation well now you’re put in a spot where he has to scramble and that is always his problem at the end of the day so um with the wi conditions and everything coming there it doesn’t mean I don’t think Victor havin is going to
Be fine here or have success he’s inside the top seven of my model of pretty much every single way that I ran it but there was a significant difference and I and I think from early ownership projections and I’d be curious to see where this
Ends up going I think a lot of people are looking at this board and you see Rory and Sheffer I’ll use this for a DFS answer here at 114 and 115 and I think a lot of people are going to want to dip down into Victor hin thinking that it’s
Too big of a decrease from 10,200 I could see him being the most popular name on the board of those four options that we’re talking about and I kind of think he has the least safety of any of them built into the mix and uh the floor
Maybe isn’t as high as the general public think so uh you know it’s a difficult spot to where do you want to end up paying down if you’re not playing havin or do you want to go up to Rory or Scotty but I from what I have heard like
When I posted my DraftKings article earlier one of the biggest takeaways I got from about six or seven people just over and over again is everybody is off of Rory this week and if that’s how everybody’s going to be I will probably be very aggressive to Rory yeah I looked
At the US Open he he was like what he finished ninth when they played you I think in 2019 did some solid stuff off the tea I don’t think we’ll see that that much this week you know with kind of how the the distance thing has changed but just
To wrap back to Victor before we get to Rory I really have some interesting takes on RI too Victor’s main strength is out of the rough at courses with thick rough and just just rough in general he’s one of the best out of the rough he’s like exceptionally good with
Long irons out of the rough he’s just strong and athletic out of the rough and gets immediate Strokes gained anytime there’s a thick you know cabbage on the side of the fairways this week massively wide Fairways we can expect these guys to just be hitting from the Fairway all
The time about 70% of the time I think they’re in the Fairway here which is a little bit more than to a average so we’re going to see these guys just dicing it up from the Fairway versus guys with typically good you know approach numbers that generate some good
Strokes G now the rough so kind of navigating that Avenue is going to be really important and he’s also one of the guys that has good good course histri year based off of you know past performances when it wasn’t that good you know like tell me how many good
Players were in the field last year when you finished like T15 or whatever you know like well I I wrote for a roto baller article in that I mean it was funny I went back and and I was going to use the same thing again and I was just
Because I found it humorous it’s like it’s one of those things if you could not get Jason day to enter that tournament last year that shows how bad that field was every single high-end star studded player didn’t arrive to that tournament and uh as I said in my
Article this week like it took a signature event $20 million purse to get everybody to come out here but now that we do have all the top names out here for the most part I don’t know how great some of those results are kind of to
Your point there so uh course history is going to matter to a little bit of an extent obviously you have the split course rotation and uh spy glass has a little bit more of a tree line protection there so I’m kind of curious of how pebble’s going to play on the
Weekend if those winds do get crazy because you’re right on the coast there with absolutely no protection like scores could get wild if everything goes south but um I just worry about havin short game at the end of the day I totally agree and I think one name I’m
Gonna go with as a beautiful name underneath 20 to1 for me is is going to be Colin marawa for some reason I’m not a big proponent of Colin but under 20 to1 excuse me at this golf course I feel like he’s just got that his accuracy off
The te is totally fine he lacks the distance that he typically makes up in accuracy he’s going to be completely okay off the te he’s incredibly good with the wedges I’ve got a really big thing for wedge um wedge play this week as well as putting on PO I think those
Are the two really important keys for me I’m not too concerned about course history guys that hav’t plager that have whatever if you fit the mold for this golf course I’m cool playing you and I think I like Colin and just cross my fingers hope to die that they they
Either play 36 holes on Saturday or they just don’t play at all on Sunday and he gets just pristine conditions for the majority of the time because he’s a fair weather golfer but I’ll play him in DFS I just can’t quite I haven’t played anyone less than 40 to one this week
That’s just how I’ve been rolling so I’m kind of curious as to what your how your card structure was and what your thought process behind all that was I saved most of my exposure I have two bets I took Max H at 20 to1 I think you could have
Found better if you got that early today I took Windam Clark at 100 to1 which is kind of my Boomer bust play that I’m gonna play with this week but morawa was the second name and I I never play morawa Byron like it it t it takes like
Everything to go right in my model for him to end up making it I really like him this week I think he’s a good value I think that on a DFS answer here there’s going to be people that are going to jump off of him because of last
Week’s miscut I think this is a perfect course for him with his proximity numbers number two in my model in expected weighted scoring that was a very intriguing metric for me of why I wanted to jump into the mix there I’m probably if I’m I’m probably gonna leave
The card how it is right now and not add anything else but if there was a name I was going to bet it would have been or will be morawa okay that makes me feel a lot better I was I was eyeing him out eyeing him out at 22 to1 I just couldn’t
Pull the trigger I’m just going to I saw a John Wick clip today that I almost posted but it was a little too graphic to kind of put on my Twitter my Twitter timeline’s got a little little PG lately little irrated for for some people but
Um couldn’t put a John Wick just mowing people down in a building because that’s basically how my outright card is today it’s just shooting bullets going crazy reloading and lo locking it up again you know I just I think I got like nine outrights and they all 40 to one up to
Like 400 to1 on a Sam Rider bet you know so we’ll have to see how that goes Byron just to touch on that really fast before we move on I mean I don’t know how PG you’ve actually gone with it like you posted a cartoon half naked man on my
DraftKings article so I mean I I guess you kept it as a cartoon which is better as a real person it was American Dad you know everyone loves a naked American Dad and a great show yeah um great show and I I think I did my own self half naked
In the in the waves for Joy Don’s um when I was on his show the last time so it’s a problem I’m starting to get less and less skin involved on my tweets and I think think we’re going to have to like dial it back because I ain’t no
Page so we’re going to have to figure out stuff out there on that front but the people seem to tolerate me in that department so I thank you for all of that so we’re GNA get into some other names here south of 2021 tell me who you
Really really fancy um a little longer odds I guess you’ve already told us you like those two guys but if you if you weren’t betting those other three names you mentioned who do you like Spence in in the range about 20 to1 and up let me talk about Windam Clark for a
Second just because I I I do want to get into him um he’s one of those golfers that has a really high ceiling inside of my model in a low floor and and I think this is the perfect spot to kind of take
A a chance on him if we look at what he has done recently the results don’t look great on paper and I understand that and you had all the live golf speculation around him which I mean I guess I can feel pretty safe to say at least at this
Particular moment he’s not leaving like I think Hatton seems to be the the signing which I mean I’ve lost my whole fsga golf team over to live at this point so that’s an unfortunate situation I’m so sorry we were in the same boat I think between you and I we had three
Lineups get taken from turle Hatton in a total of five so we’re we’re in D Straits yeah yeah and that that’s unfortunate my team was three and 0 there I was feeling good about that that what I had going on there Byron but as
We look at Clark with it if you look at the last 24 rounds and and as you know and as everybody knows who listens to me every single week I run things from a two-year running perspective yes and and that is something I did inside of my model but I
Also ran things for the last 24 rounds so I looked at weighted Strokes gained total over the last 24 rounds for every single golfer in the field and I weit it inside of my model to to be a certain way with the percentages how I wanted
Them to be for Pebble Beach and Windam Clark despite the results he had put together skyrocketed towards pretty much any way ran it to a top 10 player in in this tournament I think he’s going to go massively under own massively under the radar there’s going to be that Boomer
Bus potential that he’s going to bring to the mix but I think the ceiling is very high if he puts the pieces together and you know if we’re talking about him as a DFS play and I’m curious to see where ownership ends up going I don’t
Think he’s going to be much more than six seven eight% that’s something we’ll find out more tomorrow as more ownership comes into the mix here but uh pretty much everything that I ran with him despite the form still had him inside the top 10 for me so I thought that was
A very interesting return yeah I’ve got him ranked 14th in my model too and you know if you take a look at his last 24 rounds he’s 68 in total Strokes gain so there’s a lot to be desired but at the same time we’ve seen this guy just pop
Off at at random spots and typically we’ve seen him when he has won these tournaments be pretty good with the wedge but you know his long-term situation for me is a little rough in that department but at any given moment the guy can just he’s the US Open
Champion right you know like they’ve played a US Open at this golf course too so it’s not the same as the one w at but I would say it’s um at least something to kind of go off of um someone that I want to chat about in this range and
It’s quite deep down the odds board I snagged an 80 to1 on siah the gala it’s going to be kind of a way we’re going to segment our way into some model combat I’m kind of didn’t expect to go this early but I have Sith ranked 24th in my
Model and I think Spence I run in mine good shot percentage I’m not entirely sure if you have that incorporated into yours I know it’s a really weird thing because it’s 50 yard buckets that daa golf has that incorporate in there he’s one of the elite golf he’s one of the
Best in the field when it comes to good shots from 100 to 150 so if you take that out of the equation and just change it to Strokes gained he takes a massive aggression so I’m going to you know preclude that with that comment because I think that’s maybe where you might be
Going to and maybe you have some other reasons why you’re not a big fan of him but I just love the fact that he can just scramble his face off and really really dial in the puddle when he gets it going but he’s been super volatile
And and I you know taking a taking a shot at him at 80 to1 I feel like the odds are a little disrespectful in that department for a guy that literally won the 40 net which to me not quite the same driving difficulties at as Pebble but a similar California course that
Kind of requires scrambling and and good po putting siah you know obviously won that tournament so I’m curious as to your take on on siah being a little further down your model than mine I mean I think there’s something to be said about if there’s very few books that
Have matchups out right now um at any of the sharper books that I I somewhat respect the early movement with it sath has become like a minus 130 or greater favorite against Denny McCarthy and that’s a golfer I really like this weekend McCarthy so you know maybe
You’re on to something there I do think he’s a better outright bet than he is a DraftKings play because I do think he’s going to be very popular on the DFS slate um the price there inside the 7000s for the upside that he possesses probably a lot of people are going to
Want to go there I I could see him I mean the only maybe answer that would come into play is that Hustler just gained so much ownership that people don’t double dip with those two names but I think it’s going to be a lot of Hustler a lot of Saw hit that’s getting
Thrown into the mix I I understand where you’re coming from because my model does have positive trajectory for upside on him the floor though is super low in my opinion he is as you said it best he’s a volatile golfer where things can really go south he has an increase in weighted
Projected proximity inside of my sheet for this course not quite the returns that we got at the fortnet where he won it but you at least have that Improvement and um you know if you end up being correct where that good shot percentage really ends up saving him
From that like zero to 125 range I don’t hate it as much as my model does I guess like there’s certain stances where a player is super low on my model and I’m just 100% out because I kind of go with my model more than I would say maybe
Maybe 100% of people like I’m very I live and die by what my model tells me with it but this is one of those spots where I think if you’re shooting for upside in markets he makes a lot more sense in those areas so like I don’t
Have a massive problem with him for that reason yeah I think maybe your issue is a little bit of safety concerns there you know I can I can see how that comes into your model there for sure um you mentioned that he is a head-to-head matchup and Evan doing the Lord’s work
Transitioning us Year from Sith toala to Denny mcarthy who I have ranked 52nd in my model and you have 13th so we’ve got a massive discrepancy there and that’s our second model combat matchup of the evening so tell me Spence why you have Denny McCarthy 13th I know he’s got some
Good course history but uh tell me what convinced me like I’m kind of curious as to where where Denny got that Steam and I didn’t manage to find it in my model I ran a separate portion of my model that I turned into what I called a pitch and
Putt with it I mean I do think this is a pitch and Putt at the end of the day here so definition of yeah yes I mean essentially that’s exactly what this is and uh he’s outside the the top 50 for me and weighted scoring which is
Probably a lot of the ways that pushed him down in yours but when I ran certain perspectives in my model when I looked at POA putting when I looked at how he performs on POA courses in the past when I look at him coming inside the top five
Of my model in this pitch and Putt scoring narrative great Scrambler of the ball at the end of the day with this uh inside the top 16 of my model and weighted Strokes gain total over the last 24 rounds including being inside the top 10 of my model and weighted
Strokes gain total for this course I think he’s just a really good fit here and um I don’t love as I said that all the early monies come in on theala like I I think that that hurts at least like the upside perspective of McCarthy if
He’s goingon to be an underdog in every single matchup but if any of those numbers get pushed far enough like I still like the McCarthy side more than theal like I think at these Plus numbers that you’re getting now I would rather take the safety that my model has of
McCarthy so uh it’s an interesting wager because the first two players we’ve talked about about is an actual matchup where the sharp money or at least the early money if you want to call it that seems to be pushing in your direction but I will stand steady that McCarthy is
Going to give you know one of those prototypical top you know let’s say top 20 showings this week well you know the thing with Denny Spence at this venue he could at any given moment do what he did last year on Sunday and almost win the
Damn thing going off in the morning wave I mean his pter can absolutely like you mentioned he’s I’ve got him graded as one of the best po Putters in the field I think he’s number one for me so that’s definitely what’s going on but his recent ball striking seems to be holding
Back a lot for me here so I’m kind of banking on the fact that that’s not going to necessarily show up again because there’s certain guys that this is the this is the crazy thing about handicapping golf is someone can be playing absolutely terrible golf like
Joseph bramlet and finish T25 at a venue that just completely suits their eye and it can be where their driver just starts playing while they just feel comfortable on a golf course I feel like Danny McCarthy is one of those guys but you know at the same time the recent form to
Me is just a bit more important than course history because like I mentioned the beginning of the show we got a way more condensed strength of field going into this week so anything that you know good course history in the past where there’s multiple guys that haven’t pled
Your before that’s going to kind of throw those guys back in their course history rankings a little bit for me so that’s kind of our little model Kombat situation there and then I know that someone mentioned Jason day earlier old Casey mentioned Jason day let’s dive
Into Jason day and then we’re going to go to another Australian and then we’ll wrap around some more names that the guys are throwing out in the chat there but Jason day doesn’t rank out that well for us Spence and for both of us not like Jason day what’s going on with the
World we’ve got him priced as the 28th ranked golf in our models and DraftKings with some course history obviously some very nice stuff around you have him as the 15th most expensive golfer in their slate so talk to me about your boy Jay day and why he’s all the way down there
I mean I refuse to say anything bad about Jason day on a show like the one answer I’ll give to this and I’ll let you take the floor because I’m sure we have a very similar reason for why our models do not like him a lot of of it
Comes down to his iron proximity in the recent form like 72 in my model out of 80 players in this pitch and Putt scoring that I ran 62nd in weighted scoring the Par Four returns were not great now he’s been great at these less than ,200 yard courses he has a fine
Weighted Strokes gain total which is why I think he has found so much success out here but there’s a lot of players he is one of five plus names that I could say from this like $8,000 plus section where pass course history is just going to really
Propel ownership this weekend uh I I am fine just letting these players beat me it doesn’t mean that Jason day doesn’t beat me and on most weeks that I’m not on Jason day he does seem to beat me but um I just I have concerns right now yeah
There’s you know you’ve got that built-in organic emotional hedge so it’s all good you know if he beats you you’re still happy if he does if you on him and he sucks it is what it is you know um I guess that’s not the way you want it to
Go but the other way works perfectly for your situation same situation for me I mean the course history has through the roof top three on spy glass top two on Pebble uh historically and then just the approach play is just catastrophically bad so I think that’s just going to be
The issue going into this week we saw last week he didn’t quite show up at a venue that he’s typically thrived that quite nicely so if that’s any sort of an indicator you know we can expect him not to play his best golf this week but
Granted he also missed the cut at the Wells Fargo then win and won the AT&T byon n the following week so we don’t really know what the hell Jason day is gonna do I don’t think he does but he’s supremely talented but I think the model’s kind of suggesting he’s going
The opposite direction and then from one Aussie to another we’ve got our rankings down under compared to the DraftKings rankings which have Adam Scott Spencer ranked as the 28th price golfer and we’ve got him at 16 and 15 I think Adam Scott has typically played very good
Here on peble and I think his game kind of goes pretty pretty well with how this golf course can unfold I think he’s a great wedge player I love how solid his putting can be and he’s just a little inaccurate off the tea but I don’t think
That’s going to be as penal this week for him so I’m really loving Adam Scott’s just the wedge proximities the guy can absolutely dial in those numbers and again the good shot percentages for Al Adam are just through the through the roof for me and it’s just really nice to
See what he can be getting up to playing some solid golf over in in Europe as well on the Dubai tour there and just to get back to his solid shot numbers he’s he’s just really really good inside the top 20 for good shot rates from 100 to
150 for me so that’s where it’s going to grade out exceptionally well for him and he’s inside the top 20 on power pting so for those two metrics to be inside the top 20 there’s no no wonder he’s top 15 for me so kind of curious as to I might
Have told you exactly why but I’m sure it’s similar in in some other ways for you yeah inside the top 10 of my model and weighted proximity from Z to 125 yards here that’s a massive increase over his projected Baseline um you know Byron here’s the interesting thing about
Him because I think he’s going to be popular and that always concerns me with Adam Scott if you are looking for any negative reasons of why not to play him and I’m trying to find some right now inside my model because he has nice upside uh totals in my model but the
Floor does have some problems and I think the floor is at least worth talking about here outside of the top 50 in my model in G percentage the driving accuracy might not end up being a flaw here just because the Mis cut penalties for missing a fairway aren’t as extreme
So I don’t want to hit him for that one necessarily uh putting from five to 10 feet he does get a big increase on POA but outside of the top 50 of my model on most courses here’s my biggest I guess let’s say three problems to the mix here
And they kind of go together scrambling outside of the top 70 if this gets this could be a spot where Adam Scott enters I could see this right now he enters Sunday in seventh place and he finishes in 67th Place when he shoots an 87 on
The day or something it’s gonna be like that’s always in play uh overall bogey avoidance 72nd weighted scoring 47th I think on the best days you’re going to see something from him I think on the worst days you might need to like close your eyes if you play him and hope
For the best but I think he’s a great Target potentially like he’s going to be one of the first names I look for when I look for round one and two matchups I’m curious to see who he’s matched up against maybe I can get that early sort
Of a view from him and then kind of maybe jump back and see like let’s let’s see what happens on the weekend here yeah I love how I ask you like why do we both like Adam Scott and you just rattle off reason after reason why we’ve got
Problems against him but that’s a great point to to mention because we like him and we find a price discrepancy between our rankings and DraftKings we’re not the only people on this planet you know like there’s other people that obviously found it that way too and I think he’s going to be quite
Popular this week so in a DFS environment that may not be a bad fade whatsoever and he’s he’s he checks all the boxes for all the reasons that you said I just wanted to throw like an alternative perspective out there I have not made a decision yet where whether or
Not he’s 100% going to be in my player pole I would like to see where the ownership plans I think contest selection’s going to matter I think as I said there’s ways to play him in different iterations of the board that might make more sense than other like
Others like for me because he has those upside totals and the proximity numbers look so great I’d rather bet on the upside like I’d rather bet him to come top 10 or to win the tournament than I would for an entire four days to come top 30 or whatever the number ends up
Being put out that you’re not going to probably get a top 30 that makes sense but like the point remains like I be shooting for more of those upside markets and then uh for me those daily matchups kind of give me that same upside because you only have to deal for
18 holes there absolutely I think the thing with Adam is it’s just that you know you can you’re gonna get cheep in Wolf’s clothing or you gonna get a wolf that just wants to eat so it’s going to be really interesting to see what he can
Get up to our boy Ian in the chat here saying that uh this course plays similar to caloa which is a very interesting thing because a few of these guys would have played there just recently this month we get five tournaments I think in January this year so a little funf
January for us um lots of wedges easy driving if you don’t know anything more about this golf course go check out Ian scouting the routing it’s one of the free articles we have out there and it’s it’s impeccable like Ian to me is one of the few guys that I I typically pride
Myself in saying okay if someone else does an article I could probably do that for that person if they ever disappeared off the face of the Earth kind of like say wind Clark’s Reon form but I don’t think I can do that for Ian like Ian can
Just dissect a golf course so well and it’s you know just the way I the way I just learn things about a golf course when I read his article is really really impressive so um go check that out it’s called scouting the routing over at ro.com it’s a free little article there
For you so yes he’s he’s saying he’s he’s supporting the theala tech I I like that a lot so yeah we’ll see what can happen I’m not entirely sure where theala is going to play because he typically plays while atori and Guy finished all the way like 60th or
Something last week so not very good good are there Spence let’s get back to our main man evania who was the the transition King for us he’ve been asking about Todd father old Brendan Todd and in my little breakdown of the course the research late night on Sunday last night
Early this morning we took a look at brandan Todd and this golf course suits him so freaking well like the the way that his game just fits this golf course it’s like a glove it’s literally a small SI a six foot4 Brenan Todd glove the guy
Swings it like he’s 5 foot three but he’s actually 6’4 and just this course suits him so well but for me in a big field event I cannot trust Brennan Todd once the weekend rolls around and he’s going to grade out well he’s always
Going to be the I mean he’s 12th in my model but if I go all the way to his his scoring averages 28th in round one 16th in round two 131st I know there’s not a lot of this is like all the guys that played last week I have to still filter
That out but it’s terrible and then 76th again for round four so he just cannot keep his foot on the gas it just he loses control of the vehicle and it goes off the rails and you cannot have that happen here at pble despite how well he
Typically has played so I’m kind of curious as to your take on Brandon to I think that’s an interesting note and I do think he’s going to be very popular my model loved him and it’s for all the reasons you said I mean like it’s it’s
Going to be hard to find a course that’s more tailor made for his game I guess the question I would ask you is this because I think this is is the more interesting way to try to approach this like whether you’re playing Todd or you’re not playing Todd is something
That we can get into later in the week do you have a name let’s just say I don’t know we’ll put this in a like $300 range from let’s say 7,300 to 6700 do you have any pivots that you would go to instead of Todd yeah I’d go straight to
Taylor Montgomery he’s basically the equivalent of Todd just not as accurate off the tea but at this venue I’m not too concerned about that incredible iron player for this golf course he’s not a very good long iron player but this guy can absolutely score with his wedges
He’s incredible he’s eighth in the field in good shot percentage from 100 to 150 and he’s one of the best Putters on PO so we’ve got a lot of similar traits to Brendon Todd I think Montgomery is gonna be I don’t know if you can really call
That a pivot but it’s probably a play I would play over Brendon Todd just because I think Montgomery also tends to eject himself from the top of the leaderboard but not nearly as hard um as Brendan Todd so and he’s a little bit cheaper because those Balance builds
This week are going to be coming in hot and heavy with how how loaded this field is this week I think Montgomery is a fair pivot I the two names for me that I was going to give and I saw uh Sweet Spot talk about straa straa is gonna
Probably be one of them for me he was 8600 last week now all of a sudden nobody’s gonna want to play him here at this $7,000 price tag Boomer bus profile I I certainly understand that but it’s a no cut event to where I am willing to
Shoot for that upside with him there’s a lot of portions of my model that have him inside the top 20 for specific metrics that I think will be very important and then if you’re looking for another golfer California ties has never really played this course well before
But Patrick Rogers at 6,900 I think the course history is going to push everybody off of him but uh I mean we look at what he’s done recently the form looks great I mean you have to start this year three consecutive finishes inside the top 20
It’s kind of the the argument or the discussions we’ve had a lot frequently with a B Hustler or one of these names where if you look at their past course history at these venues not very good but if a player is better than they used to be Adam spencon was another prime
Example of that early in the season I I don’t think that this is necessarily I I don’t know what to do with him my model does not like him this week and I’m benching him in my season long League because of that reason but uh again that’s saying something because you just
Had yeah yeah I mean I’ve run out of players at this point but I think Rogers and straco would probably be the two most natural pivot spots for me yeah I’ll throw in another very volatile guy that’s won year before in Tom hogi if you’re looking for a guy
That can absolutely get scorching hot with any any iron you know he’s so good from any sort of range and we if you just go back to the Yi W he was just knocking pitching wedge after pitching wedge just dead stiff and at any given moment he’s actually training very
Nicely on approach too he’s been playing much much better lately on approach and it’s good to see because he’s going to a course that really rewards him in that department so and he’s puted nicely yeah in the past too so we’ll see trending also yeah yeah it is it’s it’s actually
Top or middle of the field which is good for Tom H you know and he puts nice on PO I guess so that’s good to see for all Tommy um we have to also speak about who who did Evan else also have um he wanted
Some Kurt kyama love and I I don’t know Evan I think we’re going to be disappointing for you year I’m not a fan of Kurt kyama um you know I did him in the research show and it was a little rough to look at what he’s been up to
Has been playing better golf this week this year but just I don’t know if this course sits his game that well like he’s a a long like Arnold pal Invitational Bay Hill type golfer where I think he his length can really come into play versus kind of having to get into a
Pitch and Putt contest with the rest of the game I don’t hate him if you’re throwing a dart down in this section like that’s all is to me at this point but inside of the top 20 of my model and weight to proximity for Pebble and then I mean if
You want to just I mean look for any answer here that I guess gives you that high-end potential and I know off the te returns are going to be deemphasized here and I understand that answer but second in my model on these short par 72s that have easy to hit Fairways with
Really no penalty there so uh we know that when he pops he can pop and win a golf tournament um I don’t love necessar what he’s been doing recently but once again we’re talking about a you know mid $6,000 golfer where if we’re comparing him to the rest of the names beneath him
Like I don’t know if maybe Matt coocher my model really likes him I know the form has not been great for coocher but like coocher and kittama like sub 6600 are probably the two most intriguing names for me yeah and coo on any golf course with power fives you definitely
Got to consider him at a course that he’s played well out in the past um our main man Ian once again the hii love and hate situation here at Ro baller.com I cannot I cannot understand what people’s hype about Hideki is like he’s starting to gain this traction he’s starting to get this
Popularity the last time hii M Yama finished inside the top 10 was at at at the Players Championship which is coming up in like five starts time that was 20123 that was the last time he was inside the top 10 I can understand he’s moving in the right direction and he’s
Not going to four three part four holes out of five he’s also not going to go and make six birdies to end the freaking round on Sunday like because he’s so far out of contention he’s like Xander when he gets close to the top of the
Leaderboard the E bra comes on and he just loses control and the putter is a massive concern it’s happened now at the Sentry it’s happened at the farmers to me I just I can’t get behind it and people just are obsessed with him and Shane Lowry going making nine birdies in round one
And an albatross and still not finishing anywhere close to top the leader board last week what are we doing so I just have this irrational hatred for those two guys and I don’t understand why maybe just cool us down a bit Jan Spence and kind of give Ian some some love for
Hideki if you have any well I’m always 100% out on Shane Lowry so I’ll double down on your sentiment there uh Hideki I just think he’s going to be too popular he flashed a little bit last week and everybody’s going to want to run back to him and I don’t think he’s NE
Necessarily cheap for the volatility that he’s bringing to the mix like I mean if I’m trying to directly compare him to names in this mix like I would like to see where ownership goes but I would rather play Tommy Fleetwood like I would I would rather play I no
We’re talking about a very popular golfer here but I’d rather play JT Poston yep or Sam Burns I’ll take Sam Burns all day over I know he’s priced higher than him but um that’s the way I would rather lean even Matt Fitzpatrick I’ve also got got an irrational hatred
For Matt Fitzpatrick so I’d probably play Maddie over over Hideki any day of the week I would play Fitzpatrick also does he still have you blocked oh yeah uh and Justin Rose I think he told Justin Rose to block me as well so or it was when you were doing your popularity
Contest and I had Justin Rose versus cam Smith and I did the David and Goliath thing and I think he might have might have blocked me when I put the Justin Rose the the The Bachelorette with the the MasterCard ATM in the background and the chick was like he was screaming at
The chick I think that’s what kind of called the dogs off there so I’m the the British guys are just absolutely roasting me right now on Twitter so tough scenes over there um sea says guys Justin Thomas Brian Harman Eric Cole in a playoff I’m like positive okay ca um
That’s going to be quite the call coming from from the top rope there so we’ll see what see what comes Eric car in a playoff is going to be tough because he’s also a perennial ebre as he gets to the top of the leaderboard kind of guy
Um I did want to also mention a pivot in the 6K range is another sapper that I don’t know if he’s catching some steam he’s all the way down 64th in the model for me but personally just taking a quick look at what he’s got up to at the
MX similar kind of a venue i’ would say versus Tori last week where he kind of sucked it up but Christian bade note my boy I mean he’s he’s had some good good performances here people don’t like to play him he doesn’t really ever get that popular and
You know he can he can dial in those wedges and his distance off the tea is going to be completely acceptable at this venue so kind of curious is quickly on your busy Tech as we start getting out of here yeah I think great bounceback spot for him 30th in my model
So I’m a lot higher on him than you are um I I think that when you don’t when we talked about this last week like his lack of distance was always going to be the problem I I still think he’s playing fine golf this feels like a nice
Opportunity for him to put the pieces back together I’m curious to see where the owner ownership ends up coming in don’t know what that answer is going to be but I I do think he’s an intriguing name this week yeah he typically kind of just went out and played the North
Course and rattle of nine straight bars you know when I had him in Showdown so he broke my heart last week but it is what it is um we’ll see what we can get up to with my boy Bey boys and girls kind of expedited this show we’re GNA
Have to keep it under 45 minutes per strict orders from the top so we can get some good SEO metrics when we post this elsewhere so we really appreciate you guys tuning in um use code T off or code Maniac for 10% off our premium stuff I
Hope you guys got a good little taste for what you can get from behind the scenes there at Spence’s article Spence let us out you with the last 20 seconds baby yeah once again we appreciate everybody who Tunes in listens to the show anybody who’s a part of the Roto
Baller website it’s a lot of fun doing the show every week everybody in the chat answering the questions going to continue to try to grow it but we have so much going on at Roto baller Byron like between the two of us Ian both Joe’s Matt Miller uh we have more
Content than we’ve ever had at the website there’s picks for betting there’s picks for DFS there’s one andone contest we cover everything that you can find on the Spectrum here for a a weekly golf contest so if you’re not doing so already we hope you consider checking it
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