2024 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks, Research, Course Preview, Guess The Betting Odds | 2024 Fantasy Golf

Pat Mayo provides the preview and makes early 2024 Pebble Beach pro-Am Picks with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 Intro
1: 08 Quick Info
7:20 Course & Stats
16:09 History
20:02 Field
24:11 Key Stats/Stat Model Results
30:06 Course/Mixed Conditions
53:01 Guess The Betting Odds

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AO experience experience Experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience Pebble Beach proam picks the research guess the odds we’re going to dig deep into all of the stats over at Fantasy national.com the revamped fantasy national.com fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself 20% off you can see how I use the tools and

Do the walk through on this show if you are watching the video version if you are watching the video version smash like and sub to the channel if you’re listening to the audio version you can always hop over to Mayo media Network on YouTube or just keep listening and if

You are listening on Spotify or apple podcast set on the auto downloads and rate five stars that would always help me a tremendous amount the listeners leak is not yet out I should have that by Monday for the show with fineberg we make our bets however I am going to have

A first look with a guess the odds along with a companion piece with this video in my free newsletter the Mayo media newsletter on substack you can join for free down in the description then my complete article will come out on Monday as well and that’ll just get sent

Straight to your inbox so please go sub to that right now here’s what you need to know about this tournament this year because it’s a lot different than Pro am’s past the proam the proam where you’re up with I mean there’s no Bill Murray there’s no Larry the Cable Guy

All of the Jabron celebrities are AB they’re they’re launched they’re gone when you cut the field size down from 156 players to 80 players you know those top end CEOs and they’re going to pay the Bucks to get their two rounds in there’s no Saturday round with the loser

Amers it’s just the first two days it is a signature event there is no cut I don’t like that that I do not like whatsoever so the first two days it’s going to be split between Pebble Beach Golflinks in spy glass Hill Monterey Peninsula taking a hike you’re out of

The rotation now it’s two courses so the first two days they’re going to split between those two they’re going to play with their am Partners the rounds are going to take like 70 hours and it’s going to suck uh and all the cameras generally speaking are at Pebble Beach

Shotlink only at Pebble Beach not at spy glass Hill but both of the weekend rounds Saturday and Sunday are going to be at Pebble Beach everyone in the field all 80 players is going to get their chance to win I think it’s 3.7 My5 million so that’s what we’re seeing in

The strongest field of the year so far the deepest field of the year so far again it sucks that there’s no cut but these are this is what we’re living with with the Signature Events uh API Genesis and Memorial will continue to have a cut

80 down to 50 after the weekend I mean that’s good enough for me I I think that’s fine when you invite all of the best players if you’re playing like a Jabron got to take a hike you got to be the Monterey Peninsula of the field you

Can’t be around the last time that we didn’t have Monterey Peninsula in the rotation was coming out of the co Year Daniel Burger won so that one should probably reflect a little bit of what we’re seeing more so this week with three rounds at Pebble Beach one at spy

Glass Hill I me Monterey generally plays as the easiest in that rotation it’s the one with the super large greens like the smallest Greens on the PGA tour are at Pebble Beach Golflinks the fifth lowest of a regular rotation smallest are at spy glass Hill there’s a huge difference

We’ll get into that because there’s a ton of trees at spy glass Hill it’s like Parkland style and not directly on the coast pebble is far more influenced by the wind than it is over at spy glass Hill so if it’s like benign conditions Pebble Beach is going

To play super easy and it’s going to be a putting contest I’ll be in a difficult putting contest because it ain’t easy to putt on these greens so this is where I want to jump in right now uh because just it was really pissing me off over

The weekend like I get that your guys are missing short putts everyone misses short putts except for Matthew pavon at I mean he even missed one on what was it whole 17 he missed one of the short ones like I I guess it’s cuz everyone bet on

Oar that they really noticed it and he had that just ridiculous four putt uh but I mean he gained Strokes putting for the week I mean dyfo was much worse Xander was much worse but it’s going to be even worse this time around to bring up the putting splits I have them here

In front of me uh and they’ll be in the newsletter but just as a spoiler alert putting inside 5 feet the make rate for this course is 94.9% that is the third lowest of any of course on the PGA tour regular rotation Tory Pines and Riv are the other two so

Short putts on POA very difficult but these are small greens then to keep going down 5 to 10 ft second lowest make percentage of any course on tour Pebble Beach that would be inside 10 feet third lowest make percentage 10 to 15 foot putting 25% the lowest of any course on

The PGA tour 5 to 15 feet 40% that’s the second lowest 15 to 25 ft 133% thirdd lowest you’re not going to make a whole lot of putts so guys that have a lot of experience on these greens should end up going pretty well here but just because someone’s missing a three-foot putt

There’s a lot of guys missing three-foot putts you’re only choosing to remember the putts that you see that doesn’t mean because you haven’t watched it it’s not happening to anyone else although it was like historically bad for Tony feno which should kind of make up that like

Everyone else was kind of [ __ ] as well when it came to the short putts on the greens tough one to do it’s tough to make some of these short putts um so anyway it was just really because someone had told me it’s like oh yeah o bear missed six six pots inside five

Feet on Sunday it’s like no he missed three inside five feet one he missed three inside seven feet one inside 5 feet but like Live Your Truth man that’s that’s fantastic fantastic where fear feelings you know that’s much better than the empirical facts that are laid out what you feel actually happened is

What happened I mean I guess that’s the society we live in right now right whatever you feel that has to be the truth not what actually happened so it just you can see that like no one paid any attention to Xander because no one had any money on Xander to win out right

Because the odds were so short obviously he was one of the favorites coming in same as Max H like Max H missed a whole bunch of short putts throughout the course of the entire week he three putted from inside seven feet twice I believe that was just on Thursday that

He did that but it was twice over the course of the four rounds and like no one was like oh my God Max hom can never bet him a guy who’s wanted this course before CU he can’t make these short putts guys make short putts it happen

Uh and you might want to like scroll through to see who’s actually missing the short putts and who’s not but you’re going to see a whole lot of them at Pebble Beach this week let’s get to the course Pebble Beach Golflinks you know it well there will be three rounds this

Year at Pebble Beach it plays under 7,000 yards pure POA on the greens there’s 116 bunkers littered across the grounds there is one water hazard it’s called the Pacific Ocean so don’t hit it in there or down a cliff and yes there is shot trackers we’ll have better data

From this tournament than we’ve had at almost any uh besides 2021 I guess the US Open so I guess that’s another part that we can talk about a little bit like the last time that we saw a field this good at Pebble Beach was during the 2019

US Open when all like the really good drivers of the ball did really well Brooks obviously Woodland won you saw rose up there I mean DJ has won at this tournament before uh Sheffer ended up kind of hanging around that year too you know Victor and morawa two I mean W’s a

Bomber one’s more of an accuracy guy but two guys that are prodigious talents off the tea that was when they were amateur and their first major and they played incredibly well at that US Open but what we’ve seen throughout the course of time at the proam with an easier setup with a

Bit wider Fairways and the rough is like not penal whatsoever it’s the closest proximity to the pin of any course in the regular rotation on the PGA tour From the Rough that you that’s how you end up with Von Taylor and Ted Potter Junior these triple digit winners it is

The year of the triple digit winner and this course over time what you’ve seen like there’s one outlier over the past 10 years realistically speaking from the odds boards at Pebble Beach it’s Tom hogi he was 65 to one at open it’s generally either someone under 30 to one

Your Phils your roses your Spees your Jason days or some just out of nowhere long shot Nick Taylor Von Taylor the Taylor Brothers although they are not related or from the same country Ted Potter Jr like these triple digit winners because I I just went over how

Difficult it can be to putt at Pebble Beach that if you have the week where you are making all of those putts then you’re going to be pretty good Jason day is like the king of making these sorts of putts but and but now we get this

Field in terms of you know Sheffer and Rory making his debut that is it just going to lean towards the very top end of players and they’re going to run away with this like I’m finding it very difficult to figure out what’s actually going on so Pebble Beach itself the

Actual course only the short number seven plays under par in terms of the par 3es uh with two of the nine uh with two of the back nine ones posting a bogey rate of over 25% so the power 3s Can Eat You Alive at Pebble Beach the

Power fours the average distance is 430 yards and four of the most five difficult holes are power fours all four of which come in the first 10 holes if you can survive the front you can actually go score on the back and we’ve seen that Myriad times over the years

Coming down the stretch if you can just get through that front nine and those hard power fours is a tough power five on the back that guys can really blow it but number six is a must get for the power fives um it’s a 3% Eagle rate a

44% birdie rate no other hole on the course is even birdie 28% of the time the power fives are a bit tougher uh than you would think at this course um it’s I mean to really think of it like you saw Daniel Burger ended up with two

Eagles in the final round the year that he won in 20 21 but that’s a pretty big outlier that guys are like getting there into two a lot of the time like even on number 18 like these greens are just so small that you’re going to have to rely

On chipping it in a lot of the times unless you’re absolutely dialed in from Beyond 200 yards like generally speaking this is a it’s a wedge Fest and a putting contest is what we’ve seen over the years like and like your short game is going to be put to the test and that

In mid-range and short putting it’s a real test of all your skills but like I said before if it becomes benign conditions in terms of the weather then all of a sudden you’re looking at a tournament that legitimately does end up becoming a putting putting and chipping

Contest uh in a lot of weird ways DraftKings wise in terms of the streak we can kind of jump over to that but I I’ll just briefly talk about spy glass Hill for a second it’s a par 72 7,041 yard so not super long longer uh but

It’s not long whatsoever it’s one of the shortest courses on tour 62 bunkers four holes with water in play po again again this is more Parkland there’s trees you can make bigger numbers at spy glass but it does not actually play all that difficult uh you know these two can kind

Of trade year-over-year of which is the most difficult uh on a yearly basis because wind and weather can impact one more so than the other but with you know with all things being equal and like relatively again benign conditions spy glass should play a little bit harder

Than we see at Pebble Beach so let’s jump over to Fantasy National .c right now and continue going through what we’ve seen obviously the field is all loaded up and ready to go and we can jump through the field in a little bit but let’s go to the course just for a

Minute to take a look at what Pebble Beach presents as we talked about a little bit earlier uh you can see that even when you get to the power fives um here we go 3% Eagle rate is not great number 18 it’s crazy that burger eagled it in order to win that

Tournament but you know less than a 1% Eagle rate 26% birdie rate so nothing all that high the bogey rate is 16% for a par five kind of crazy 25% bogey rate for number 14 uh on the back nine like that’s kind of crazy for a par five as well so the

Par fives are not as they’re not the gimmies uh that you would really think of you can see that putting and approach really kind of blows everything away again but that’s usually with a much lesser F this is one of the worst fields of the Year historically now it’s one of

The deepest that we see in 2014 so we jump into the field uh we’ll see a little bit more of that I’ve already went through the putting splits you can see the average distribution for approach shots is you know pretty flat about as flat as you’re going to see but

A lot of shots coming from 150 yards and in you got 15% you got 22% you got 6% that’s almost I mean it’s not the plurality of shots but you’re getting up there pretty close at Pebble Beach when it’s just going to be can you hit these

Little knockdowns and get the spin to stay right can you hold them on these greens uh because hitting Greens in regulation is going to be lower I mean with the smaller greens it just inevitably has to be driving accuracy going to be very high because guys have

To dial back it’s the fewest amount of 300 yard drives of any course on the PGA tour because guys have to dial it back you can see the driving distance 267 per uh only 177% of drives go over 300 yards because there’s no need to

Really air it out you need to play this strategically I would really link it a lot although it’s not exactly the same the way that I would really link this course is or and we’ve seen a lot of crossover success between the two not across the board but Harbor toown has to

Be the one that comes to mind immediately where you don’t need to be a bomber in order to do well Tia green you need to be very good but you can be more of an accuracy based player who’s very good 150 in in and a very good chipper

And Putter and you just don’t have that overall driving distance you can get away with that at this course you can get away with that at the Heritage there are other courses where that’s just not going to be in play and you know you’ve seen spewin both them Fitzpatrick you

Know ideally I mean he’s won um at harbort toown in his career he won last year at Harbortown at beating speed in that playoff but he’s someone who on paper should do really well at Pebble Beach too that I I don’t want to say because you struggle at Harbor toown

That means you’re going to struggle at this event I mean that might not be the case but that would be one of the few like things against you that I would look at if we’re trying to separate between a lot of these top-end players

And we saw all the top end guys play at harbort toown last year and that’s why I the reason that I bring it up because you’ve seen so few of the top end players play at the Pebble Beach proam in their careers they just have no data

To go off of they have no course history and it’s usually the same people that come back and play over time when we take a look at course history it’s a lot of the same people year over year that play well here so that’s just kind of

Interesting to look at trying to find different ways to kind of parse this out of how we’re going to figure this out so those are the course details the course history over time we can take a look at it if we just click over to the card

Section of the field uh maybe we can get a little bit of a I’ll shrink down the screen there for us as well hey look at all these guys they’re in here tournament in the recent like the tournament play like you just you got you got nothing for a lot of these

Guys um you can see the recent form um for like your Aaron rise of the world and your Adam hadwins of the world is pretty good but when you take a look at their tournament form you had won t65 for Aaron Ry in his career at this

Tournament that was in 2020 um so if we go down you can just see a lot of the different guys this is just a view a very quick scroll view if this is how you want to look at things and again if you just click on it you can toggle back

And forth between recent and tournament um of how they did we’ll get the farmers updated once shot link gets that data over to us but that’s the way that you can look at it I still prefer the table view if I’m going to do more of my in-depth research which I’m doing for

This show obviously uh but once again that is fantasy national.com Mayo get yourself 20% off any of those packages uh but the tournament history to take a quick look at everything we’ll jump over to the tournament history tab make it easy on ourselves uh we can see Nick Taylor

Been the best player of anyone in terms of Strokes gain total he has played it every single year he had the win in 2020 had top 20s each of the past two years as well I’ll be bet I’ve been betting on Nick Taylor all year anyway so obviously

I’m going to continue to bet him going forward uh in this Jason day has been very good as well Patrick hlay Jordan spe MAV mcney MAV mcney was one of my bests last year he withdrew that was a lot of fun that kicked off what is I

Mean he just played his way back into the PLAYERS Championship getting enough FedEx cut points even after a disastrous I guess final round a Saturday at Tory ponds he was very much in the mix I I mean I like mt mcney this week I’ll be curious to know what his odds are going

To be in a field this stacked see H H’s been very good on POA although he three puted within seven feet can’t back him on POA can’t putt on POA [ __ ] off like go it was absolutely killing me just the morons out there if you’re one of those

Morons never tweet at me again it gets my blood pressure boiling and I don’t like it a lot because having to explain it over and over just makes me angry all over again but yeah can’t back can’t back maxom can’t put on PO although he’s wanted like every California course ever

Except this one um but he does have in three starts in his last three starts top 15s in each of those starts but you can see none of the top names are popping up here because they just frankly don’t play in this tournament at all even going back to last year like a

Lot of guys that went to who played in this tourament actually went to live like Dustin used to play all the time Phil Paul Casey they’re not here anymore uh Rose won it a year ago um it was just it was a cluster it had to finish on

Monday because of weather uh it was really not an enjoyable viewing experience I mean this this tournament is going to be hopefully a lot better now in terms of viewing this is usually the worst one to watch all year because you have kanuk manala Vision with some

Guy named Jake Owen who I’ve never heard of when like assessing his swing on a Saturday the I mean the celebrities themselves like really aren’t even here this time and they’re not playing on Saturday so we get like a real two rounds on the weekend to watch this

Tournament which is nice hopefully they show us some more shots uh he entered in pretty strong form um having gained a total of 12.6 strokes this is Justin Rose at the farmers and AMX coming into last year nine of the top 10 finishers last year gained from 175 to 200 in

Terms of proximity Tom hogi the year before that now he had a top three finish at the American Express two weeks previous to that he did miss the cut at Farmers going in but you can see like a lot of these guys Justin Rose you know

He had made the cut the year before Tom hogi had a top 15 the year before made it the three previous years uh in 2021 Daniel Burger won that year who had a pretty nice run here as well uh but he’s not in the field this time around

Nick Taylor was another one you know he had come inside the top 30 the year previous to his win uh you know Phil it obviously had a lot of success I believe he’s won this tournament four times he won in 2019 even tpj uh we can is Ted

Potter to the give a sponsor invite nah poor Ted Potter we’ll never see Ted Potter at this event again if it remains as an elevated event it might not remain as an elevated event but we can even kind of see um I believe it’s listed

Under proam yeah he had a he had a top 20 at this tournament before the win when he went through I mean he had no success outside of those years but he did have a top 20 so you know having a strong indicator has been the way that

This tournament has played itself out over time but that doesn’t mean that’s going to be the same thing going forward throughout time as well like just because we have the stronger field and that is going to be the again the internal question that you have to ask

Yourself this week is this going to play differently and then you normally would think because the field is so much smaller and stronger that you’re not going to have the bulk of outlier type players to have a great week because you’ve trimmed the field from 156 280

Players and now you have just a lot the the overall quality the the even the top 80 players like you used to have like 10 maybe good players sometimes four really good players in a field that now we’re looking at it in a completely different

Way so let’s take a look at The Strokes gained coming into this over the past 24 rounds then we can rig everything else up Rory coming off his win over in the desert playing his first time in America this year is number one in the field you

Can even see see going down the left hand side now on fantasy National it does give you the splits of this tournament over time uh you can see like the greens they they used to be bent now they’re pure POA on all of the courses you you can see green firmness hitting

Fairways is it difficult is it hard at this tournament fast versus lightning these are fast poag greens uh bumpy uh poag greens as well you can just be it’s tracking towards the hole oh it hit a bump oh it went the other way you know

It plays as a par 72 100% of the time but that’s just how it’s going going to kind of factor itself out like over 7,400 yards yeah not often uh they really have to jack it up to play that and that was with montere Peninsula back

In uh way back in the day as well so these are just different tournament factors that you can make it easy on yourself to go through now so we’re seeing the first appearance we get of Rory we haven’t seen Vic since the opening Tournament of the year um and

Then just a lot of the regulars that we’re seeing Nick Dunlap is now someone that is a professional coming off his win at the American Express pulled out last week at Tory Pines went back got his Affairs in order but he is now a professional and yes he is in this field

Of 80 um uh on when fantasy National updates itself we pulled this in on Friday obviously the field got updated because of the conclusion of the tournament so once the odds are released we’ll get the full top 80 was one to make sure that everyone was in there if

You were doing early research on this like Justin Thomas has played himself into the field by being top 30 in the world that means Hayden Buckley is now the first one out Matthew paval now back in the field some weird sponsors invites it’s kind of crazy that we didn’t get

Daniel burger or will zelator or Gary Woodland so Burger has won at this tournament before but he’s been off you know since outside of he made his return at the American Express but he had been out for 18 months previous to that he’s a former winner of this event zot Tor

You think you would just want to have him in the field and had his best round of the year on Sunday so it’s nice to see him slowly getting back up into form Gary Woodland won a major championship at this venue 5 years ago coming back from brain surgery they’re like take a

Hike pal you can’t be in this tournament no we need to give our sponsors invites to MAV mcney and listen I can see it he’s played really well at this tournament over the years and his dad is like a billionaire so probably Grease the right Wheels in order to get in

Peter Mady got a sponsor’s invite to this which is mindboggling web Simpson and Adam Scott sh why not with those guys but you think that you would find especially for Gary Woodland instead of Peter Mady like web Simpson that’s great and everything it’s not like web Simpsons won it this tournament before

Like I would have given that to Daniel Berger or will zot torus uh just playing off the medical exemptions like it it just it’s really strange to me I mean through uh who else do we have here no one really else mer card was awesome Teter green or not even Teter green ball

Striking wise last week he would have won at Tory Pines basically by like five Strokes if he could have chipped or putted done one of the two he was historically bad for him in both of those categories which is kind of crazy to think about but yeah Nick Dunlap is

Playing other than that it’s like the the the regulars of the top end of the field all the good guys that we’ve seen and Nick Hardy for reasons unknown I guess because he won the Zurich last year so let’s jump in uh to the stats a

Little bit and see what we can glean this week so here’s the model that I have made already um and frankly we’ve seen just such a weird schoras Board of winners here over time that I don’t think that the model’s all that good to

Tell you the truth so we can go in and we can manage the models and we can try to figure them out uh let’s see we can go to Pebble Beach we can make that’s good we can edit our model a little bit uh you can kind of see uh moose is still

Working on the sliders um people like very triggered over the fact that you know they’re because to use the sliders right now you just kind of move them up and down like this and everything will readjust for you um and you we’ve made it a little bit easier to do for people

Uh to get on the percentages that they want uh and moose will have that be able to type in as we go forward but yeah people are very upset like oh I can’t type it in at 30 I’m sorry it said 29 when you were just kind of trying to we

Were trying to make it easy for people to go through uh and do everything in that regard maybe I have too much weight on approach now that just the first thing that I see when I look at this is I have approach weighted at 30% but I also have opportunities gained at five

Plus two proximity ranges that’s almost 50% for approach which when you reverse engineer everything yes that’s the way that it’s going to look predictively I don’t know if that’s the way that you want to approach it so let’s drop this down to yeah 14 or so percent you know 16%

14% if it doesn’t say 15% listen it’s not good the model isn’t good enough anyway to give me that stric of advice that like there’s going to be a huge difference for me when it comes to those two things maybe there’s something else that we can throw in here off the tea I

Did not have weighted as all that important maybe with a stronger field I’ll up that a little bit call that 10% I want to make around the green a little bit more putting is tough because I don’t know how predictive putting is going to be yeah you want your guys

Being really good from 5 to 10 50 or five five to 15 like both those ranges and we can throw those in but as I kind of pointed out like the the Mist rates here are so high compared to everything else that maybe adding just building out a rudimentary model then adding that

Into the mixed condition is probably the best spot where we want to go this week um hm yeah let’s let’s increase putting a little bit let’s move it down because I’ll add that into the mixed condition a little bit easier the shorter power fours 350 to 400 yards power fivs we’ll

Put that into the mix all right I’ll update the model this way so I won’t change it around too much but what I will do is take the model rank Scotty Sheffer number one so I should probably give you the results over the past 24 rounds shefford morawa posting posty not

Toasty but posty number three Rory mroy Eric Cole much better venue for Eric Cole than last week at Tory Pines where he finally ended up missing a cut Victor Max Klay Adam Scott the glove Luc ludvig oel Xander spawn theala Henley senson Montgomery benan Jagger Todd you know

All the regulars that we’ve seen doing pretty well if we extend this out a little bit let’s go past 75 rounds just to see if that changes anything else and create some new names up near the top model rank Sheffer Rory Cole moraa Henley Henley does take a little

Bit of a jump over the longer sample he did let us down at the Sony Open uh and I don’t think we’ve seen him since yeah we have not seen him since so maybe how has he played at this tournament over the years I don’t feel like this is one

That he ever plays which is odd because it feels on paper like it should be pretty good for him proam oh no he he had played it almost every year up until you know co uh you know a t-15 in 2018 it’s been a long time since he’s played

This tournament weird that this is one that he just all out skips just based on his profile and what he does well in terms of his particular skill set maybe well there are certain people that just actively avoid this tournament because they hate playing the three rounds with

The amate and it ends up being a six and a half hour round like I fully get that Ben an is someone like there’s a few players that I had my eye on mainly benan and MAV mcney so just a great start to the season for bananan two top

Four finishes and how is he done here really he’s never played it how did he play at the US Open when it was here US Open 2019 came t16 a lot of great chipping at that course that’s crazy to me that he’s never played in this event

That can’t be right yeah there oh he played AT&T Pebble Beach yeah it just when we have to use shot link for a lot of the stuff how they name the tournaments is always so weird so we did play it last year played Pebble itself

Very well so it must mean he had a bad go either spy glass or monor I suppose I can N I don’t even want to go effort that it’s just nice to see these numbers pop up you know almost four strokes TD Green in only two rounds at Pebble Beach

You know if we you know PR rate that out he’s going to be eight Strokes gained Teter green I mean that’s what he basically gained at Sony and did really well we’ve seen the putter come along a little bit it’s been historically very bad on POA but I think that’s okay and

He does play you know in the windier the conditions get the better benan and end up playing relative to the field so if we do get windy conditions at Pebble Beach maybe he can navigate that a little bit better can he make enough putts well that’s always kind of the

Thing with Benny but um if everyone is missing shorter putts I do think that helps out a little bit with him and it did seem like he actually gained Strokes putting last year GED 1.5 on these greens so maybe that’s somewhere it could be a positive for him

On these um we have a very short sample so realistically we’re not going to know but I am going to shrink this back down to past 24 rounds and we’ll start building out a mixed condition model mix condition model and see what we can come

Up with on this front so we’re going to put the model ranking and we’re going to add that in we’re going to say our model Rank and we’re going to add that into the mixed condition model so I had Tory Pines in there and we’ll throw that out

And we’ll throw at Strokes gain total from just from Tory Pines last week and we’ll build up a new one uh to just what we see right now so last 24 rounds Pebble Beach stat ranking that is one that will throw in and you know what we

Might as well try to do the past 100 rounds as well just to get a better glimpse of if these are the things that historically rate out well at Pebble Beach uh we’re going to throw in both shortterm and long term and if people are we’re we’re going to have the

Rolling report back very soon uh however uh this is just a easier way to do that if you want to just throw both short and long-term in your mixed condition model along with other things as well we can start weeding this out once we get in a

Little bit deeper to these two things and now we can start actually coming up with actual course conditions the first thing that I wanted to look at was putting at this venue in particular we’re going to take a look at the past 24 rounds a lot of players do not have

24 rounds of putting to go with at this course but again making everything very easy now uh Pebble Beach I’m not going to throw in US Open just cuz I think these are different conditions we’ll just take a look at Pebble Beach Golflinks what we have seen at the proam

From this course and I’ll go back to The Strokes gained format with this going in the model rank of just pure Strokes gained what is everything weighted out in here yeah I have it just really weird let’s just uh kind of what do we think you know just just by looking at everything

A little bit earlier so I mean Strokes gain total is obviously going to be good but we had a approach and putting when we looked at it at about the same so we wait those the same off the te was slightly above around the green and then

Just total in general coming in we’ll just be nice to look at and we’ll call that our our Strokes gain model Jason day is actually uh the best at this coming in at Pebble Beach over time so this is really the course history of what we’re looking at what I do want to

See is the average putting for players coming in so very few players actually do anything all that well here Xander in one round historically at this course on these greens has done really well obviously it was a bit different for the US Open but it’s him you know Justin Su Aaron Ry

Baden’s been good Lee Hodes sunjay they all have one round of data at the golf lengths so that’s not really telling us anything Patrick Rogers has six okay so Patrick Rogers is averaging the best so we’ll I’ll just go through the players who have three or more rounds putting at

Pebble Beach Golf Links during the proam and then we can maybe get a little bit of a better sense of what’s going on here so you have Patrick Rogers 1.17 per round in six rounds that’s really good Alex norin 1.12 Denny McCarthy 1.02 those are the only three players

With more than three rounds that have done really well at Pebble Beach Golf Links in terms of putting so the guys with more rounds who were still in like the half-stroke or more category you got web Simpson yeah good thing he was sponsor invite they and mcne Matthew the

Knights who say Smith have done pretty well feno maybe this is the ultimate feno no one will go to Fino in their minds now because I thought that guy can’t putt but he’s puted pretty well here benan in only two rounds shank Sheamus power have done very well here I

Have no idea how Sheamus power did last week I should probably go look into that Brenan Todd who was a runner up here a year ago you know over point5 Jagger has puted very well here in his four so is Windham Clark putam Klay that’s in 10

And 13 Rounds hogi Mady Nick Taylor another one they all have gained over a half stroke per round on these greens over the course of their career and we can even break this down a little bit more so instead of using Strokes game we can go into putting and I mentioned some

Of those different categories uh if we just take a look at uh Pebble Beach you know the 5 to 10 range where I said you know it’s very difficult to gain Strokes on uh and it’s been you know the third lowest second lowest make percentage Ry

And Su they only have the one round Windam Clark has been one of the better players from in close uh inside 10 feet Windam Clark is one of the better players on the field historically at this course Mady has been really good as well with guys with a lot of rounds you

Have Vic and Patrick Rogers have done pretty well five to 10 feet vixman really bad from five feet and in so is Poston so poston’s been bad at the short misses here Poston in general has not puted well at this course only only three rounds so you give him the benefit

Of that that is a small sample you can see Nick Taylor just kind of dynamite inside 15t in his 18 rounds here Jason day very much the same way Sheamus power very much the same way uh that’s that’s really nice to see so the guys that have

You know played so many rounds here maybe they continue to play here because they’ve been so comfortable and we’ve seen the longer sample from them be it bohas or mad mcney nine and 15 rounds or maybe that we’re seeing that let’s just try to sort by rounds can we sort by

Rounds yeah so who are the like the worst guys who prob like Chris Kirk has 15 rounds of data and has just been dog [ __ ] on these greens over the course of his career cooch is you know bad at three put avoidance he’s lost five 0 to

Five 10 feet versus the field he’s lost 5 to 10 not a ton but marginally so he has not been all that great from inclose and he has a ton of rounds here he has 17 rounds day and SM have the most I mean they have the only ones that max

Out the 24 rounds and spe no big surprise has been negative to the field from 0 to 5 Fe but actually been very good everywhere else and we’ve seen all the rounds of spe you know when he was amazing and when he was bad so we can go

Back and look year-over-year how he’s done on these greens uh he’s been really bad in over the course of his not really bad but he’s been in the negative from 15 fet and Beyond in this grou the three put avoidance has actually been very good for him so he’s never really lit it

Up on the greens all that well he had two really great rounds um in 2016 round four and then round three in 20177 as Strokes game pting he was 3.7 4.8 and only a few other times has he gained over a stroke you know 1.1 1.2 1.9 at

Least they’re starting to come a little bit he’s had two really bad rounds on the greens um I mean he had won really bad around 2014 that was a decade ago so we’ll probably give him a pass on that in this current iteration of speed that

We’ve seen where he has not been very good from in close he has been relatively good over the past few years from inclose 0 to 5T which is a real killer range for him at this venue so that’s good news and the three pod avoidance is low where it tends to be

Very high at this course so good news uh from Jordan spe at least at this course going forward so yeah that’s more of the putting stats what I want to do is basically throw in Strokes game actually what we can do here is we can go add to

Mix condition model at this course by itself we’ll throw in putting and we’ll throw that in and we’ll say putting Pebble Beach where do we at here Strokes game putting courses Pebble Beach last 24 rounds that’s the only ones that we have in here another thing that you can do

Although it might not be as great for this week is to go to uh The Time Machine just to see how all the stuff did last year now everyone in the mixed condition model ranking that we’re building at the moment are going to be pretty good um overall cuz we can edit

The mix condition model and make things like I’ll wait till we add everything into it but we’ll take you know we’ll just rate everything at 33% that’s probably the easiest way to go about it right now we can call it 30 36 34 uh of the two rankings plus putting we’ll

Update it and just see how that affects what we’re looking at when we go back in and take a look at the time machine now if you’re unfamiliar with the time machine and what it does in general it takes a look back over time of what we

Were at at this point a year ago entering this tournament and it gives you a sense of what you might been able to see so the MCM rank last year let’s see it wasn’t very good Sheamus power would have been he would have ranked second in the mixed condition model of

Players in this field of their stats coming in you can see what their stats were coming in you know here’s what Tom hogi did before this tournament coming in um you know he played the American Express he played the Sony he played the Sentry that’s what he was up to entering

This tournament from 2023 and you can go back to the other years to see how it did but that’s why I said that even just taking an overall look at the modeling that it might be pretty tough so the mixed condition the best it did was you

Know Brennan Todd was ninth he ended up coming in second Mitchell was 13th he came in fourth that’s pretty good you can sort by the finish last year too to see where these guys would have rided out so yeah Mitchell and Todd were the best and even in the overall model You

Know Carl Juan ranked out ninth in the modeling coming in he came in seventh he just got bumped from the field by the way so he’s not going to be playing so it was a bad year last year maybe that was an outlier year you can always go

Back and back test you know to 2022 uh 2021 might be the best look that we can go back and try to figure out let’s see yeah this was much better uh the year before so we can see Tom hogi won he was third in the modeling he would have been

First in the mixed condition modeling now we do have some course history baked in with that putting so obviously that’s going to factor itself with the waiting that we have in right now towards people that have done well here like the model rank the MCM loved Jordan spe hated him

On just his overall rankings coming in he came in second uh kley was first in the modeling he came in fourth yeah the modeling was much better this time it missed out on a lot of these guys of in the middle like Merritt Damon Fitzpatrick uh Damon was 20th uh but the

Mixed condition got them a little bit better with you know 12th and 17th for Fitzpatrick and putam power was second and 11th in the modeling he came in ninth so just a lot of the guys who you know so it was put it this way the model

Was a lot better in 20202 than it was in 2023 we’ll see how it did when all when all of the best players really did well in 20 21 which is why now which is why I have pause about what’s going on here so the model rank uh let’s see the Finish rank

This is the year that burger won so when you take a look at the odds like these were mainly all the guys who were at the top I think that 13 of the top 24 in DraftKings pricing came inside the top 20 that year uh and that’s the year that

They played the three rounds at Pebble Beach and didn’t play Monterey peninsulas yeah if we just did it with the model itself it wasn’t all that good who was tops in the model coming in here zotus Burns n Smith sewo Cam Davis Verner uh Doug gim Kyle Stanley Patrick

Klay and Paul Casey coming in were the best so you know got Klay and them right anyway this is how you can kind of go back and back test uh to see what was going on or you can just kind of see with all the stats that we threw out you

Know what did people do well here where were they ranked so they were ranked pretty highly in putting coming in birdies are better gained they did very well coming in that year so that’s something I mean that’s the Tory ponds model that I have loaded in right now just CU I

Forgot to change it when we get up here but that’s interesting to see that they did so well in birdies or better gain so maybe we can throw birdies or better gain past 24 coming in and we can kind of take a look around and take a look at

What people did going in so let’s add that in we’ll say birdies are better gain and this does not take the historic data for your mixed condition model that just says past 24 rounds going in we can add that in and you’ll be able to see it

There we’ll just kind of wait that out a little little bit and then we can hit update once again and it gives us a little bit more going through everything so now you can see the mixed condition model ranking now if we take a look with

That update that we just did so Burger although he was 18th in this Tory Pines model so we should probably switch off that and go to the Pebble Beach model just to see if we’re doing anything a little bit better right now again it’s a research show we’re walking through uh

Finish there we are yeah burger was 27th but fourth in the mixed condition modeling uh um and that’s for all courses the birdier better rate that wasn’t just at Pebble Beach so you can see the putting was good for him coming in to that year in 2021 um we didn’t have birdies are

Better in that was basically it he was pretty good in approach he was pretty good in power force 400 to and we can see actually a few of those guys so Burger Klay spe tringali another guy went to live Chris Kirk ended up coming 16th that

Year uh was very good from this 400 to 4 50 range you can see the key proximity ranges that I was looking at didn’t really have much of a factor whatsoever so maybe those are completely wrong let’s go edit those out and and see if

We can find ones that let’s just take a look at proximity first to see if there was a proximity range that did a little bit better that year uh than maybe that we were thinking going in uh so it was not that range was it 75

Yeah 75 to 200 we saw a little bit better so now not really proximity itself didn’t really rate out all that well when you take a look at the very top end finishes Russell Knox yes Paul Casey 200 plus so it was more short game it’s funny that approach itself rated

Out really well but there’s not like one distance in particular that you can really point to it does seem like 75 to 150 you know 25th and 18th coming in 18th to 31st coming in if we go and actually take a look at the results from

That year that might be a little bit different but it does seem like guys coming in 75 to 150 was more of where they were at than the very top end probably because the harder holes that’s where you’re going to come in so let’s do that in the model let’s take out the

Two that I had in previously that’s the proximity model I probably don’t want to change that around what I want to change around is my Pebble Beach modeling so we did see that birdies are better gained and I’ve replaced that with opportunities gained a lot over time so

We’re going to get rid of 125 although the wedges have been pretty good here over the years that’s where you’re going to do a lot of your scoring we’ll keep that in with opportunities gain put that back up to like 10% now we’re going to add in proximity

175 to 200 for for reasons that’s part of Threes that’s the wrong one change that to where is proximity here proximity 175 to 200 and make that I don’t know 10 perish we update that model get rid two of the factors we can have and you can always pin your model

As well and that will pop up I’ll make that my pin one for this week coming in just every time that I pop it open this is the one that’s going to come up so let’s see how that changed the past 24 rounds did it change anyone really um

Cuz we’re still on the the time machine right now so we update our Pebble model to look like this it still didn’t give us all that great of results I really liked you know the gims the mades I guess that was just how well people were playing going into that tournament even

Someone like Sam Burns it it was like he was liked in both models didn’t finish all that well uh Klay Cam Davis Matthew neith Chris Kirk Jordan spe the mixed condition model ranking ended up doing a little bit better so let’s throw in that range this 175 to

200 range and we’re not going to give it a very big waiting um but we’ll throw it in just to you know see what’s going on here um we’ll give it a little minimal rating and we’ll also throw in um no I want to add in that par for

400 to 450 yards how did that do uh amongst people coming in that year so good for Mady who ended up doing really well the year after this which is kind of funny sew had a top five finish year before so yeah let’s throw that one in as well and

Listen you can always play around with these sorts of things uh and do it any way you want so 400 to 450 We’ll add that one in and give it a little bit of a waiting as well and just see are we starting to get a better sense of what this course can

Give us over time it still likes Klay pretty well up there the mixan condition likes burger and can’t lay uh from that year so let’s go back to this year uh and see if this did anything for us to see if we’re starting to get a better

Sense of who we might like this week or at least who you like from the back end of this tournament uh M naughty Mexican all right because we have so much from this going in um and we need to update this again so let’s do do we want to put

In course history we have the course history putting going in you know we can just put in recent form I think that’s actually a pretty good one to throw in uh we can take a look at Strokes gained just in general Strokes gain total going into this you know Rory Cole will add

Just Strokes gain total recent form as we can call it coming in past 24 rounds is what we’ll call it and we can throw that in we can give that its own particular waiting and we can update the mixed condition model just to see so malady is not going to be number one

Anymore unfortunately for all the Mady heads out there Eric Cole is now number one in the mixan ition and the model rank again much better course for him than Tory Pines being on the shorter round we should probably throw that in as well just to take a look at it uh

Less than 200 less than 7200 yards we’re getting 100% of the time in that range for Pebble Beach I had that wrong earlier when I had Tory Pines uh and I just I had it pulled up the wrong way so we’re going to throw that into the mix

Condition um and we’ll say Strokes gain total on courses of under 7 2200 yard so we’ll throw that in and we’ll give that a waiting so what do we have for the waiting in the mixed condition model right now so we have the Pebble Beach modeling what’s let’s tone that down a

Little bit because we have both columns where we can see that and we’ll just call those 10% we’ll put Pebble Beach putting in around like 20% in the pries are better game we’ll jack up a little bit because the winning score has been like- 17 minus 18 at this tournament

Over time uh we saw the two waiting for 175 to 200 in power fours 400 to 450 kind of pop up a little bit and then we’ll take recent form coming in put that at 16% um just overall coming in then we’ll take recent form at courses of less than

7200 yards and weight that at 14% you can see that’s all up on the screen right now so nothing in particular just is overweighted just some different conditions coming in uh but I do want to make that putting pretty clear it’s that’s at 15% so let’s update the mixed

Condition model and now see what this is telling us does it still Sav Eric Cole in at number one yes it does but now havin Ben Anne at number two so Ben Anne’s top 10 in the overall model Rank and now top 10 uh top three sorry in the

Mixed condition model ranking so that’s very interesting to see Rory H Xander Klay Henley and if you do go into just the overall like uh when you do the update to everything sorry it’s up here in the mixed condition modeling if you just click on the mixed condition

Model tab that’s what we have have it will build the model out so you can see where everyone just ranks overall if that’s particularly where you want to see of how the guys get there in these sense but I like to look at it in conjunction with everything else so I

Have the model rank of just Strokes game Let’s click back over to that Pebble Beach one and see if that tells us a little bit of a different story so you can see that Eric Cole in the Pebble Beach specific one while the MCM ranks

Him as number one the model rank has him at number 15 over the past 24 rounds the best of the bunch in terms of top 10 and both Thomas Henley sheffler Klay Xander are both top 10 in the mixed condition and the overall modeling but we’re trying to find some deeper names here

Poston although he did have that bad short putting again that was a small sample does well in both of these Cam Davis poor Cam Davis every time I bet him he has one great R then just let you down the entire time I like the gala a

Lot I know that he ended up rallying to make the cut but it’s just he’s so spey and spe does play well at this tournament you could take a look at caloa as maybe a crossover he just did really well there uh so some decent form

Coming in uh Keegan poor Keegan he just couldn’t get it going at all he rallied very nicely at the back end of round one and round two to make the cut last week for us to Keep Us Alive in a lot of DraftKings contest just couldn’t come

Through in the overall all that much we’re getting Fleetwood Fleetwood won overseas I mean he does like winning overseas hates winning in America but he’s someone who doesn’t rate out all that well in the top end of the field but if we’re just you know purely looking how does Nick Taylor do let’s

See Nick Taylor uh Nick Taylor 47th in the MCM and 31st in the model rankings Coastal short courses Kurt kyama is all Coastal courses with Kurt kyama in general is just like where you want to play him as you can see did he even did

He do well at caloa yeah he was all right at capala came 30th and couldn’t chip and couldn’t putt that week let’s see PGA champion ship ended up coming forth again a shorter course at Oak Hill last year Arnold Palmer he won on a longer Coastal course uh he was 29th at

Pebble Beach which is strange because I think that he was like very much up there until the end no he was 18th year he was 18th and 2020 at this tournament and he was up there through three rounds had a terrible Monday I think that he

Was inside the top 10 um going into let’s see yeah Kirk kyama was in second place going into the final round last year and then blew it coming in that’s and because so much of that round happened on a Monday that’s really weird I want to see what he shot in the final

Round now let’s go to last year select view we’ll go to leaderboard see my guy Kurt so maybe that’s some nice hidden value in kittama yeah Kama 76 in round four 64 opening round treaded water at the other two and then boom 76 good for a t29 but again second place coming in

He played really well in the windy round I don’t know which course that he played but all three of the rounds were windy in round one that was his best round when he ended up shooting a 64 so keep Kurt in the back of your mind here uh as

Someone that I mean the model likes him the MCM hates him but did have a pretty good run at this tournament for three rounds a year ago again just keep that in the back of your mind hopefully hom can get himself coming back through so yeah H that’s what we’re looking at this

Week it’s time to get to guess the odds I’ve been saying a whole lot of nothing here so hopefully I haven’t been boring you too much and now we can try to figure out who’s going to be at the top of this Market since this is the second

Signature event of the 2024 calendar year this is the most extensive one again 80 players all the top guys are playing even Terell Hatton is playing in this tournament although it is very much rumored he is going to the Liv tour to join Adrien morona the [ __ ] and rolla

Now on live but from the very top of the board for the top 15 or so odds get the odds for Pebble Beach what are they going to be at the signature event I think that sheffler and Rory are going to be co-favorites at 7 to one they’ll

Be the only players in single digits at the very top of the board after that you’re looking at Victor Xander Klay H spe I think they’ll be the next five on the board probably Victor havin at 10 to one maybe 12 to one if you end up

Getting lucky Xander and kley firmly in that 14 to 16 mix H and spe 8 18 or 20 to1 so I’ll say 10 for Victor 16 for Xander and kley 18 for H give him a little bit of that California Edge then you have Jordan SMI coming in at 20 to1

My guess for Colin morawa and ludvig oer 22 to1 Justin Thomas last man getting into that field because of his elevated official World Golf Ranking that is how he is getting in here I got him at 25 to1 feno coming off a disastrous putting week but a very good ball strike week

Actually an excellent ball striking week I have him and Sun JM both at 30 to1 Matthew Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleet won who won two weeks ago over in the Middle East both at 35 to1 then I have Sam Burns trell Aton Tom Kim all 40 to1 Cameron young and Nikolai hoard at 45

To1 and Jason day Mr Pebble Beach himself 50 to1 those are the guesses and I’m guessing as well that the odds are going to be out a whole lot sooner than when you wake up on Monday morning for this week with the tournament ending on Saturday there’s really no reason for

The odds not to appear on Sunday so maybe even by the time you are watching this the actual odds will have hit the interwebs at the Sportsbook of your choice where you can bet it but I don’t have that luxury as I’m filming that right now so those are my guesses sub to

The newsletter you can see all of them in writing down there for you along with some of the course notes and make all of the hot links very easy for you that’ll be the first look on Monday the entire article for the Pebble Beach AT&T proam

Is going to be be released along with the betting show with Jeff fber so smash the like while you’re here sub to Mayo media Network sub to the podcast and use fantasy national.com to gety yourself 20% off you see all the different ways that you can manipulate them numbers to see what

You want to see so you might as well go do that make your own picks all right I’m poat Mayo thanks for watching I’ll see you next one experience experience