Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Best Bets
01:08 – Sungjae Im
03:55 – Justin Thomas
06:00 – Keys to the Course/Course Preview
12:12 – Collin Morikawa
19:10 – Outright Winners
25:20 – bet365 promo
26:00 – Corey Conners vs Wyndam Clark
28:30 – Eric Cole
30:55 – Emiliano Grillo/Sepp Straka
34:35 – Collin Morikawa
36:55 – One and Done Pick
42:00 – Rapid Fire
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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello
Welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 along with Spencer agar I’m Roberto argu and we’re excited to be giving our tournament preview of the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach proam in case you aren’t familiar with the format this week which would make a lot of sense
Everybody’s still kind of working through it there are 80 players in the signature event second one of the Season following the sentury and this week There’s no cut here at the AT&T Pebble Beach pram unlike past years there have been a 54 hole cut after a three course
Rotation this year just a two course rotation no more montere Peninsula Country Club this week one day at Pebble one day at spy glass Hill then there’s a cut then two more days at Pebble Beach with no amateurs no celebrities out there on the weekend only amateurs on
Thursday and Friday weather’s going to be crazy we’ll get into the course preview in just a moment but first we’re going to get into our Best Bets Spencer what’s your best bet this week I’ve said it a lot on these shows I think these events are challenging because they’re
Going to just naturally pit us with many of these star versus Star battles I did think there was some value on multiple matchups that are going to land under that mentality that’s not necessarily the way that I want to attack the board though so I went a little bit further
Down you’re not going to find any bad players in this field but for me it’s two golfers that definitely have some question marks to them entering this week I took sunj M minus one 20 over Cameron young you can find that with our good friends over at bet 365
Currently all right couple players who are still pretty young even though they got experience on the PGA tour excited to hear your cap on that one in a moment I’m also venturing into matchup land which is definitely your territory firmly but I’ve got a star OnStar matchup which I know we don’t normally
Like but I think one of them’s in another Echelon I’ve got Justin Thomas at minus 110 in a tournament long matchup over lud VI Oar whom I bet last week outright and had him in one and done so I’m a Believer in Oar we’ll get
Into my cap in a moment but first why do you like sunj IM over Cameron young so I don’t think the floor is perfect for either of these two options like it’s one of the reasons we’re likely getting books to even offer them against each other in a matchup sunjay was the 23rd
Most overpriced player on the board for me from an overall sense Cameron young topped that chart as the most overpriced player there’s going to be a lot of volatility with that answer this is probably a higher risk play than usual but it’s kind of like I talked about
Like I I made a concerted effort this week to run my matchups to feature I would at least say marginally more upside than usual since all players are guaranteed four rounds of golf that was where most of my significant deviation of the numbers came into play when looking at proper pricing sunj got
Skyrocket up my sheet and into a zone of where I actually think he’s reasonably priced if you’re looking at this from more of an upside perspective he has really strong statistical profile on these pitch and Putt contests historically then on the flip side of that answer my model just really was
Never able to find that for young he landed outside the top 45 for weighted Strokes gain total he was outside of that Mark for historical performances in the win and then a 71st Place rank in this field out of 80 players for that aformentioned combination of iron play
Plus putting that I’m going to be looking at this week um I’m not going to go breaking the bank on this wager Roberto but I just continue to believe that markets are marginally too high on Cameron young to begin 2024 here that’s something that we’ve used to our
Advantage at least a little bit so far this season and until either books pair them against somebody else or give us a little bit of a different price in these matchups I still think that you’re able to find situations here and there where the market or at least specific books
Seem to be a little bit higher on him than my model does I think that makes a ton of sense and you got to attack your edges while you got them early in the season and and I am going to do that as well with my
Best bet by betting more so on Justin Thomas than fading Oar as we know oar is super talented has a ton of upside but I want to sell high on him as well in this spot following Tory Pines last week where I think might be the best fit on
The PJ tour for him of any course in the rotation and this week his driving distance is going to be minimized and when we look at the rest of their games besides driving I think Justin Thomas is better on approach he’s definitely better around the green and while last
Year Justin Thomas was struggling with the flat stick he has shown major progress with the putter so looking at some recent putting numbers for Justin Thomas U he’s gain Strokes with the putter in each of his last four official PGA Tour and DP World Tour starts he’s
Finished in the top five in all four of those starts and he’s gained at least 69 Strokes per round over each of the last four tournaments which is a major difference between last season for Justin Thomas before those four tournaments over his prior 20 he gained over a half-stroke putting per round
Just one time last season in the last 20 starts before these four uh that was at Genesis Invitational where he unfortunately lost Strokes on approach so he didn’t have a super high finish but Justin Thomas has a much better profile with his putter right now we
Know he’s strong with his wedges we know he can flight the ball there’s going to be some weather involved this week which we’ll get into in just a moment but I trust Justin Thomas as having arguably the best short game on the PGA tour his putter is hotter than oars and he can
Flight the ball hit all the shots I think Justin Thomas is in another tier than Oar I don’t love betting against a guy who has high upside in Oar but I think JT has a high floor and a high ceiling this week so even despite the
Weather I’m going to bet him to win a half unit on this one and keep it rolling on Best Bets but first before we get into our outright Market which hint I might have a little investment on Justin Thomas let’s get into our tournament preview our course preview for the AT&T Pebble
Beach pram two courses like we said spy glass Hill and pble Beach Golf Links Spencer what are you weighing in your model this week yeah I mean I think you said it best at the beginning weather is going to play probably a significant factor like we’ll see weather can change
Over time we can get into that more in a second but it’s always worth noting that the pram nature of things does make it a little bit easier because of the pace of play so we’re going to see that on Thursday and Friday before losing the
Amateurs back like you can’t put a hard pin location for somebody like Bill Murray and maybe that’s unfair to use him as the example here he can cheat all he wants he can throw his ball from inside the bunker there’s a lot of different ways there but even all of
That theatrical approach that he’s going to take that takes time out there and so for like the obvious reasons for everyone watching and everybody participating you have to speed things along so I I don’t know what’s going to happen between Thursday and Friday like at its most basic level spy glass of the
Two venues is definitely the most the more difficult of the tracks typically plays between a half shot at Two Shots more challenging on a given day you could convince me otherwise on this with the weather if we get really extreme wins on Thursday and Friday there is
That potential where spy glass is more protected versus that wide open Coastal approach that you’re going to get at Pebble although I do think early in the week there will be an edge from the golfers playing Pebble we’ll see where the weather moves over the next 24 to 48
Hours but uh when we look at Pebble and we try to break down this course like players are mostly clubbing down off the te there’s going to be a lot of forc layups it’s one of the reasons why we see over a 12% increase in expected Pro
Approach play between 0 to 125 yards versus the projected return on tour I’m pretty much going to look for golfers who can either you know handle a POA green complex I think like as I said there’s some level of this being a pitch and Putt contest from within 125 yards
And then the there’s that massive factor that I just talked about of around the green play if wi really picks up uh if the event goes sideways on Saturday and Sunday I want guys that are good scramblers I know a lot of people are going to want to point to the course
History narrative it’s not necessarily something I’m going to do I think one this is the strongest field we’ve ever had here and then two there is a chance as I said this turns into more of an Open Championship if the weather creates Havoc I just think building too large of
A pre-tournament card is dangerous so I I know we talked about this a little bit off the and I’m curious to hear your thoughts in the outright market and different ways that we’re going to attack this board but at least for me I’m not trying to become overly invested
I think um I ended up and I don’t know how he weasel his way onto my card and I’ll talk about that player in a second if you listen to this show I probably won’t be a shock of who that is because very rarely have positive things to say
About him but somehow ended up on my card and that made me a little bit more exposed in that area but it’s for the most part a very minimal week for me Roberto so I’ll Echo those sentiments I think the only other notes I had from the
Course preview is that looks like three out of four days over 65% chance of rain and the fourth day it’s 35% chance and we’re seeing that gusts are going to be around 20 30 miles an hour for the first three days and then on Sunday possibly
Into 40 50 60 mil an hour uh which as a better would be would be totally chaotic but as a fan of PJ Tour golf I think would be awesome um I also think it would be incredible as a viewer that’s kind of part of my concerns when talking
About head-to-head bets or placement markets here um on on a good day in a no cut tournament things move on a Sunday and that’s why it’s like when we lose that miscut Equity I always worry a little bit you had 50 60 mile per hour wins on a course that’s on the coast
That really has no protection to that and that’s the thing is this is where it’s difficult Roberto I don’t know that they wouldn’t just cancel will play and either it becomes a 54 hole event or they try to finish this on Monday if the the day opens up for them and that’s
Where it gets dangerous and uh you know we’ve seen that before like look at the Players Championship a handful of years ago a lot of the golfers that you thought were going to end up on the right side of the draw because of a delay ended up on the wrong side of the
Draw and that’s not something that we can predict for who’s going to be on the top of the leaderboard on Sunday there but you look at a guy like Justin Thomas like kind of going back to your bet he handled the weather conditions during that PGA Championship probably as well
As I ever have seen anybody do it like he’s on the wrong side of the draw and still found himself into contention going into the weekend so I think there’s certain players that just scramble and play better in this weather and that’s at least something to note as
You try to run numbers and try to build out your card this week 100% could not agree with that more and I’m taking a measured approach in the outright Market I’ve got one guy uh who’s one of the relative favorites and then I got everybody else at 80 80 to1
Or lower because I want to save some bullets for in the tournament because I think there is going to be some level of variance going on with the players at different courses you mentioned spy glass Hill is a little bit more protected they have five holes on
The coast and the rest are more a little bit more Inland not super far but they are guarded by trees and at Pebble Beach just about every hole is out there exposed maybe the first hole is the only one that really isn’t but everything else is pretty close um also got to play
In this event as first T youth uh back at the first T open in 2014 play with a guy who’s had some success there samees Tom Kite won the 1992 US Open there I asked him about the seventh hole 95 yard just little pitch down the hill we were
Hitting a Sandage that day asked him what the longest Club he’d ever hit in there he said a four iron so this could get crazy if we get some of those 50 60 MPH wins and I’m all here for seeing some of these Pros hit a fouron on a 95
Yard Hole uh I hope it happens and I hope we have some edges to expose to take advantage of later in the week but first let’s get into our pre-tournament outright card Spencer you said you got a couple guys who you normally might not be on I I honestly Roberto don’t know
How this guy ended up on my card I initially built it he wasn’t there I just kept watching this number drift and and and I think the two reasons why the numbers drifted is because he played very poorly last week and missed the cut
While a lot of people were on him and I think the second reason is at least the historical narrative behind it has been when windy conditions come into play some of his proximity numbers go down I noted this and we talked about this when he won the Zozo Championship but Colin
Morawa was a golfer for me that I didn’t necessarily see that downturn in his stats the way that a lot of people do in the win I thought 27 to1 where you can find him in the space is just a super intriguing number like I realized that the driver presented massive flaws at
The farmers I don’t think that’s necessarily the best course for him in in General with it but he missed in both directions he lost 1.9 shots to the field that’s not necessarily ideal I I get that argument of anybody who wants to go that route but I do want to note
He hasn’t lost Strokes in back-to-back starts off the te since the 2021 BMW and TOUR Championship events do think we get a bounceback from him there the putter is going to always be a massive concern we’re talking about four consecutive tracked weeks of losing between 1.2 and
2.6 shots that does not include the Zozo Championship win just because we didn’t have track data there so I’d be curious of where those numbers exactly landed we don’t necessarily have that but when we look historically po has been his best surface you know he gets these random
Spike weeks of gaining massively and then skyrocketing himself into the top five of the leaderboard so I’m gonna trust Mora’s top ranked weight of proximity that I had in my model for Pebble Beach and then the second place scoring grade I took Max hom at 20 to1
H’s very popular this week when I backed him I didn’t realize everybody in the community was going to be on him it seems like but I I’ve always said I’ve written about this I’ve talked about it on podcasts I probably talked about it during the Open Championship podcast
That we did together I think a grueling like a weather intense Open Championship is probably where he has his best chance to win a major so if you’re telling me here that you’re going to get those kind of potential conditions and you don’t have the added pressure of a actually
Having to try to win a major I thought 20 to1 was a little shallow for him because outside of Xander Schley homo was the only top 12 projected win Equity player for me and my model who landed inside the top 20 for expected putting on these po greens Rory was very close
You know Rory’s number is the problem and and I if I get caught up by somebody at the top of the board it’s typically Rory nobody’s gonna play him in DFS this week I want to point that out and I do think he’s an interesting Centurion
Route to go for that reason I know he doesn’t have the the the past success here that you would hope to see but I I still think that this Narrative of like him losing his driving distance might be a little bit overblown to some perspective so I’m going to take home at
20 to1 um I think it’s 18 to1 is probably the fair price I don’t know if you’re getting necessarily a ton of value in that number but enough for me to punch that ticket and then I closed out my card Windam Clark at 100 to one like it’s not necessarily the
Biggest hit I’ve ever had in golf betting Financial wise but I would say that landing on Clark at the US Open when he was at over a 100 to one was probably one of I don’t know the one or two top betting moments that I’ve had
Today just because it gained me so much traction here at Action Network when he pulled off that win like big tournament a lot of eyes on that event and for him to pull that off that was one of those things and very similar answer to morawa
I really never bet him you never hear me come on this show I might like him in DFS because he’s under the radar but he’s not a golfer that I find on my outright card but I just found so many things that were conducive to his game
That you’re not going to see for a golfer that doesn’t have anything better than a 19th Place finished since October there’s a lot of volatility with this play for the obvious reasons but Windam jumped to seventh overall in my model and weighted Strokes gain total over his
Past 24 rounds that’s when I ran the data to mimic Pebble Beach versus him grading outside of the top 50 of that core return at specific venues fourth place grade for me at that pitch and Putt contest that I keep alluding to 15th Place rank for weighted scoring I
Think the floor is very low the floor is last place here and that’s kind of the answer with Windam but um I’m willing to shoot for that upside I I don’t know if I necessarily am as much of a believer I’m curious to hear your card because I
Know you have a lot of long shots this week I feel like this is the week that we finally get a name more near the top that wins it but I don’t know weather’s the ultimate Factor here to where things blow on Sunday I guess it opens up
Everything for the field but I thought Windam at 100 was one of the better values on the board I think it’s a great value um I don’t love the form coming in for him but bad I’m adding him to my card because it’s just it’s just a perer
Number play he’s a better golfer than that look at the golfers that are in his uh odds tier and it’s not a comparison this guy won two elevated designated signature level events in dominating the Wells Fargo and I think what was by Strokes gain per round the best uh
Tournament of the year for him or his Strokes game p in that tournament were the most by any player in any tournament last season uh so the single most impress impressive performance of 2023 was his and we saw him win the US Open as well so very different golf courses
Than Pebble Beach which is why I normally wouldn’t bet him but there’s a price for everything and I think we’ve reached that threshold with Windham Clark getting into my outright card well before we get into my outright card uh also just wanted to throw out that there because there’s so much volatility with
The course rotation and the potential weather I think that’s going to make something like one andone really interesting to see how because this is a elevated purse one of the eight on the PGA tour how do you go about do you want to burn a bigname player or do you want to
Save one for later we can have a conversation in a moment but getting into my outright card I have Justin Thomas mentioned the improvement with the putter over last year approach play also has been solid for him even though it was down last year it was still relatively good by PJ tour standards
He’s a person who can Thrive with his wedges I mentioned he might have the best short game on the PGA tour you also mentioned his PGA Championship where he fought through the wrong side of the draw he also fought through the wrong side of the draw in that Players
Championship that you mentioned uh as well a couple years ago that had the Monday Tuesday I think it was a Tuesday finish actually um so we know JT can battle through the win I’ve got him as my only investment at shorter than 80 to1 at 25 to1 and we’ll see what happens
In the with the draw and everything with him uh because I have it to win the standard 8 units but I feel really bullish on him if we get him on the right side of the draw I might add just a Sprinkle to get up to like maybe 10
Units this week of winning potentially then through the rest of my card I’ve got Keegan Bradley at 80 to1 he is just really strong on approach I think there’s a lot of similar similarity in what you want in a golfer this week at Pebble Beach and what you want at the
Zozo Championship so I think that you getting so I think me having Keegan Bradley is a cheaper way of getting someone like Colin Mor um has a lot of the same skill set and and I am more of a believer in Keegan’s putting than I am
In Collins but by the way on your Mory Kawa bat which we both hit on him at zoo yeah in the second round at zoo when it was 30 40 mph hour winds he shot like five or six over it was bad but when it wasn’t as windy dominated um so if you
Want to bet on morawa I think 27 to1 is a good value because I have JT didn’t do that myself but I don’t hate that b at all and for me anytime Mory Kawa gets a 25 5 to one I got to take a long and hard look because of just his pure
Upside because of his approach play so with him also having the boost on PO that you mentioned I think that’s also very intriguing and when it comes down to the draw I’m going to be looking as T times haven’t been posted yet I’m gonna be looking hard at morawa as somebody
Whom I might invest in um so we’ve got JT got Keegan who’s strong on approach strong with the putter can do well in that pitch and Putt I’ve also got Hideki Matsuyama whom the put part is going to be the key for because it’s even more questionable significantly than Mory C
Was putting but he’s been trending on approach play and he also has also has an elite around the green game led the Farmers Insurance open last week in Strokes gain around the green he was 11th in approach play and on approach play he’s been very consistent as usual
He’s AI matuyama he’s gained in seven of his last eight on approach and 15 of his last 17 overall and over those last eight tournaments tents he’s gain at least two strokes twoth thirds of a stroke on approach per round in six of the eight so just really consistent
Approach play from matama I think the around the green game can help him out if he needs to battle through one or two tough days of weather and if the putter gets hot at 8 to1 I’m willing to take that risk also going with Cam Davis another club down course where I think
He can Thrive get rid of some of that driving accuracy issues that he has by clubbing down and I think he’s just got upside where at 100 to one similar to winham Clark you got to bet him this week at that kind of a number and my
Final outright bet one of the ones that I like I like this one a lot uh is Nick Taylor uh I mentioned this one in our early outright bets article you can find on Action Network on the website or the app love Nick Taylor because he’s a
Great course fit here he’s a shorting a shorter plotter but his lack of distance is neutralized by these two tracks more so pebbl than spy glass Hill and he’s strong everywhere else else top 52 on tour in Strokes gain approach around the green putting and he also has high
Upside with the putter in his last 24 track tournaments gain at least Strokes at least one stroke putting per round so four for the tournament if the tournament had four track rounds in six of 24 so one out of four times he’s having a pretty Elite putting performance that gives him some upside
That I think people don’t that people haven’t factored into with him uh of course we know he hit the most exciting putt of the 2023 season to win the Canadian open in a playoff over Tommy Fleetwood and he won this event in 2020 by four strokes so sure it wasn’t the
Elite field that that it is this week but you win by four strokes that’s kind of eye popping and also has top 20 finishes each of the last two years here as well the most common the most similar course that we’ve played to Pebble Beach
I would argue is the Sony Open uh W Country Club and he finished t7 there bad performance last week at or two weeks ago at the MX but I’m not reading too much into the MX as that was barely a PJ Tour event uh you mentioned the
Greens the pin locations being on the easy parts of the greens that’s a p die course with some of those relatively smaller Greens on the PJ tour but not nearly as small as Pebble where you don’t have as many pin locations on P ey courses you
Got to have the pin locations in the tough spots or else it’s completely different hole and that’s how that course is play in the first three rounds so um not going to read too much into it and even the other two coures were easier than the P ey course at IMX so
Anyways not R too much into that miscut for Nick Taylor and I think at 120 to1 he’s great value I would honestly bet him down to 70 to one this week um but go as always go shopping check out the odds at different books and you can find
Them out there at 120 to1 those are my outright picks like I said waiting to add more in tournament you have any strong thoughts on any of those Spencer I like your Taylor thought I like your Cameron Davis sent senent we’ve talked a lot about him at these Club down courses
I kind of still land under the mentality that somebody more near the top is going to win um but I think from a number grab perspective like those two in particular would be the two that would intrigue me most I I got very close to if I added
Another ticket that those were probably the two that I was going to do I I don’t know that I can go down the Hideki route like I understand that he looked better last week and he’s putting the pieces together a little bit but I mean how
Many events can we go with him producing a top 10 finish and anytime he gets himself into contention it’s almost immediate blowup potential that’s coming into play with it so that would worry me ever so slightly specifically if wi comes in the play I mean he could be winning this tournament heading into
Sunday I gave the same example last week he could be winning the tournament heading into Sunday and finish in 50th place so that would be like the only downside I see with him but as you said like it’s a number grab situation that pedigree wise he’s not a golf for that
If if we had proper form and proper health and everything that what it used to be he’s a 30 to1 golfer or less in this field so I just don’t know if we’re back to that point yet would be my only concern yeah I know Nick invested in him
Last week I laid off of him but I’m hopping in this week somebody has to have a decky for us I’m sure I’ll do it in a couple weeks put him at the waste management and I’ll jump in there as a reminder the links and locks podcast is proudly presented by bet 365
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Gambler or 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply all right Spencer we’ve gone through our outrights we’ve gone through our course preview and our Best Bets tell me what else you got on your card this week so before I get to a play that I’m actually
On let me run a head-to-head play by you that I am highly still considering okay I’m a little bit afraid that there may be too much volatility my numbers really like this but it’s this may even more downside than the other route that I was talking about with the
Sunjay versus Cameron young minus 114 both ways you can just tell me which side you like of it and then I’ll talk about it in a second I mean I’m sure it’ll be self-explanatory which side I am on but Corey Connor versus wendam Clark oh I think this one’s really
Interesting because I thought both of these guys had much longer outright odds than I expected and O this is a good one I lean ever so slightly Windham Clark because of the short game but Cory Connor HS absolute lasers so I don’t have a strong preference but
I would go Windam Clark If I I had to choose one especially if there’s more weather of it if weather is more of an issue I would like wiam Clark more yeah maybe that’s where I’m overlooking this just because I have such a minor like I
Don’t have much driving in my model he’s top 10 in my model in weighted driving he’s also in inside the top 16 this is Cory Connor for weighted proximity I I just worry about the short game like he is dead last in projected putting like I can talk about hideki’s putter being bad
Or we can talk about Colin morac kawa’s putter being bad my model seems to think Cory Connor is the worst putter on this green complex so um you know if the weather picks up and the wind becomes a problem and all of a sudden he’s not hitting as many greens in regulation we
Could be going from a spot where instead of that 10- foot putt for birdie he’s now putting from 5 to 10 10 ft for par and if those putts are not going in I could see that number balloon up on the weekend so I I’m kind of heavily leaning
Towards going that route I I do worry that there might be too much volatility on both ends just because Clark has been so awful for you know the last three four months now at this point but uh if I’m taking this mentality of I’m shooting for upside in these markets and
I’m not worried about what the floor outcome is because of the four rounds I think that might be an intriguing route that probably ends up making my card before everything uh comes and goes here on Thursday and then uh the only other bet that I have right now would be Eric
Cole top 20 at plus 180 you can shop around and find that a little bit better that will be at a book that pays ties in full I’m just not going to put too much thought into Cole’s miscut last week that’s probably one of the worst venues
You can find for him just with his driving lack of driving ability I guess would be the better way to word that uh Tory pins was always going to be a course that was going to negatively affect those uh is situations for him so uh that issue is going to get removed
Here with the short nature off the te this week and then the trending data and this is like the one thing that really liked wam Clark that also liked him when I ran my projected or my weighted Strokes gain TAA green or Strokes gain total metric I tried to run it
Specifically for Pebble Beach so you know what a player would be ranked from just entire encapsulation of that is one thing but where they would rank specifically for this course when you gave a boost for around the green or you gave a boost for putting really mattered
For me this week in my model and Cole was one of those significant climbers that jumped into the top five for expected Strokes gain total for this venue I think it makes sense when you talk about all the the the situations off the tea that are just not going to
Affect him as much as we saw last week so I thought 180 was an extremely intriguing bounceback price and as I said if like you’re not worrying about taies paying in full you can find out there a number that would be closer to like the Plus 210 range which I I also
Think that’s another route to consider going it’s just the only reason why I like the tyen full uh whether you do that at bet 365 or wherever just comes down to the reason that it’s an 80 man field and I would rather be able to get that production into the mix rather than
Losing that with such a small field because I mean there’s there’s we see it every single week there’s like a legitimate chance that he could tie for 19th Place with 14 other people and I I don’t want to get stuck in those Dead Heat roles
I agree I’m G to wait to see when the tea times going to wait to see Wednesday night when we have a better picture of the weather and that’s one of the ones I’m going to add potentially to my card as I have been looking to back up Cole
In some in some fashion this week kind of the inverse of Oar where last week was the best course fit for him I agree that toy pines might be the worst fit for Eric Cole among all courses on the PJ tour so I’ll keep an eye on that one
But I do have two other top 20 bets which is why I don’t want to overextend myself before the tournament starts so that’s why I’m not adding it right now but I’ve got ailano Grio top 20 for plus 280 another plotter like Eric Cole who can take advantage of this course
Question for Grio is the short game but his putter has been better over the last year than it has been in recent years and his approach play specifically on the shorter tracks is really solid so I like guo in uh on the shorter track he was 10th in stros G approach in the
Field last week at Pines I’m also going to go with sep straa plus 240 for top 20 and I might sprinkle a little bit of an escalator here cuz he’s somebody who has some upside we know he was on 59 watch at the John Deere which he ended up
Winning he finished in a tie for second at the open last year in some more challenging conditions out there and did it in a strong field and we know that he can absolutely light it up and go low on this kind of pitch and Putt venue I think he has upside I can’t
Quite get there in the outright market for for him uh but hey in a course where in a tournament where there is a course rotation and there’s potential weather there’s just even more of more chaos and variance thrown in there so anything over 100 to one this week you’re not
Going to be betting on a bad golfer because everybody here is really good they’ve all earned their way and there are some sponsor exemptions that are a little bit more questionable but anyways you can’t make a terrible don’t say web don’t say web we’re not naming names uh
But there are more there are other ones worse than web um anyways I like Grio and straa in the top 20 market so I’m going to back those guys and I’m also gonna seriously consider Eric Cole I mean I don’t know if I can get there personally on Grio um
I think the straa play is very similar to what maybe not to the same level but very similar to kind of that mentality that I just talked about with Eric Cole and even calling morawa earlier than that these are really intriguing buyback spots for some of these golfers you
Talked about the pitch and Putt narrative straa is inside of the top 20 of my model when looking specifically at that type of a course he’s inside the top 25 of my model in weighted Strokes gain total these are things that are not necessarily going to pop up like he was
A very trendy pick last week everybody wanted to play him in outright bets and have exposure to him on DFS and play him across the board and um the more I ran my model the lower he kept sinking for different reasons this week’s the exact opposite the more that I’m running my
Model the more that he’s Rising for me it’s a volatile play I understand that when you’re trying to back him but I think that price for a top2 makes a whole ton of sense just because he has the iron play that he can find and use
It as an advantage out here and he does I don’t want to necessarily say win Equity but he does have enough upside with the putter on these poag green complexes that he can put the pieces together and really move himself into that first page of the leaderboard um
Wouldn’t be shocked if it goes the other direction but that’s what you’re looking for on some of these high-end placement markets so I think that’s a really intriguing price there you got Roberto all right I’m gonna make that bet to win one unit I’m gonna make the uh gr bet to
Win a half unit and then my matchup from earlier Thomas over oar is also to win a half unit um also forgot to follow up on this earlier but you mentioned morawa losing Strokes off the te and how he never does that two times in a row last week
At Tory Pines Mor Kawa was both five and a half yards longer than the tournament average and he was also 10% more accurate than the tournament average off the te so he just found the wrong spots to miss you Miss um on like the 14th T left you’re hitting three on
The T box instead of dropping somewhere else um or being in a bunker it wasn’t like he had all these bad drives it was data from one day of the two because you don’t have at the North Course and he hit it in the wrong spots on a couple
Different holes but overall most of his drives were above average so I love that as a bounceback spot and I think it makes sense why he hasn’t lost Strokes off the te and in two consecutive tournaments and I’d argue that if he had his Strokes gained off the T trck from
The other course as well he might not even have lost very much if any Strokes at all that’s a very very good point there so yeah I I I just don’t think the driver would is as bad as the perception is around it you have the couple massive
Mistakes that ended up making him miss the cut and really when you do that and and you have to take an unplayable in a spot like that’s just going to ruin you um I also wanted to get into oneandone discussion we I I feel your
Pain and so you and Nick last week in our Action Network one and dpool you guys went with Tony feno you said you weren’t going to bet him out right because you bet him every year here and he nearly won he probably should have won honestly uh I had lgo bear and our
Guys did not want to make four-footers for us and Tony feno had some of the most uncompetitive 10- foot putts I’ve seen on the PGA tour uh although there were just a lot of putts that guys were misreading and not even touching the whole last week which some of those
These po greens will just do that to you so I don’t want to put it all on them but our guys missed some putts on Friday I was hanging out watching the golf year why you go grab a sandwich because L goar was putting for Eagle on the 13th
Hole at Tory Pines I come back and I see that he four putted and including a three putt from three and a half feet uh to make bogy there and the rest of my weekend was ruined um and then he missed a four-footer on the next hole for B for
Par anyways but our guys couldn’t convert I thought we had some good picks that didn’t work out who are you considering for one and done this week you know it’s it’s funny Roberto because we we talk about the putting here whether I take a good putter or a bad
Putter I I would like to start tracking this this might be like the new game for the show who does Spencer’s one and done pick how many strokes does he lose putting for the week because it has to be an astronomical number like if we
Date this back to last year I I I just end up taking golfers when they have their worst putting performance that they’ve ever had and granted yes I end up on a lot lot of bad Putters just with the way that I naturally build my model
In a lot of spots here but uh at some point there are players who can putt well and you have to end up on a good Putter and when I take somebody like Xander or H it always feels like they end up losing mass amount of Strokes to the
Field where it just never really happened so I I think it’s a unique spot here for one and duns um my initial inclination was to go with Max H and I may still end up going that route I if you made me and you force me to make a
Pick right now the way I view it is this this is a tournament there’s weather that’s going to come into play I wish there wasn’t a $20 million purse because this golfer probably doesn’t deserve to be played in a$ 20 million purse event I never want to play Colin morawa if I
Burn him for some reason there’s a guaranteed payday coming to me I feel like I’m gonna go with morawa and shoot for the upside with him and go that route um if I wanted to get really aggressive like if I was in a thousands and thousands of person contest I think
Windam Clark is like the pick where you’re the only one who takes him if you’re trying to get super contrarian with it I think for our Action Network contest I don’t need to get quite that contrarian to go down that route but uh it it’s weird because every pick that I
Think I’ve said on the show I’ve ended up changing my mind last minute and switching to somebody else uh and I I wasn’t gonna play fow last week and I ended up playing fow and this week I’m not gonna play home and I’m gonna play
Moraca and I’ll probably end up on H but for the sake of this I will say I’m going to play morawa and just close my eyes and hope for the best I am conflicted on this one because on one hand I just kind of want
To play someone at long odds and wash my hands and get rid of this tournament but it’s not a bad idea though big yeah the person is just so astronomical at 20 million that I feel like I have to use a good player or an elite player but I don’t necessarily
Want to burn them yet um and I have a little bit of a lead not very much we’re very early in the season um but I took advantage of the first signature event by playing somebody a little different in theala and getting him to finish second right now I have Nick
Taylor as my selection I’m not sure that I’m going to keep him there if the weather is super chaotic I might leave him there but if the weather looks like it’s going to clear up or if there’s some kind of advantage on one side of the draw I’ll
Probably Target someone from one from that advantageous side of the draw some names I have on my short list right now Xander shafley Justin Thomas Max hom Keegan Bradley Eric Cole JT Poston and Nick Taylor uh right now I got Taylor because I don’t know when I’m Really
Gonna use him otherwise but I probably won’t use him otherwise but we’ll see what happens this still very much up in the air yeah yeah like the one thing you don’t want to do I think from a game theory perspective is go so aggressive like at
The end of the day you need to count how many tournaments that you actively have into that you’re going to be playing and then figure out what the player pool should look like when you have a two-p pick contest a like Nick Taylor is much more digestible to take as your second
Choice for something I I think for me though like there are long shots you mentioned most of them like Windam would be one for me I think Hustler and Keegan would probably be the other two where you are taking golfers that should be selected over the course of the year now
Whether they should be selected in one of these events with one of these larger purses is another story but I I don’t think that it’s so aggressive that you can’t go down that route if you are concerned with the weather you’re concerned about the venue you have any trepidation about becoming overly
Invested and burning somebody it’s a guaranteed payday that you can take a shot with somebody and that’s why for me Windham Clark does have some potential there where I have to play him I would think somewhere he’s a top 10 win Equity choice for me which is a wild answer to
Give for a golfer who’s 100 to one the floor is extremely low and I and I’m kind of knowing that if I back him and I think like that might be the one weird spot even in two pck contests like not that we’re doing that here for ction I I
Might go an aggressive route and go morawa and Windam Clark and just try to add added win Equity that way to my build because there’s so much money but um it’s a different week just because of the weather that you’re gonna have to it doesn’t mean you have to be cautious
With your pick but you have to be cautious and aware of what you’re doing no doubt about it uh it’s going to be a fascinating Game Theory week in one and done no matter what the weather is uh considering the course rotation the purse etc etc Spencer let’s hop into our
Rapid fire and get out of here real quick we’ll touch on all the golfers 50 to1 or shorter whom we have not yet discussed so let’s start with the top of the board Rory mroy on the bet 365 enhanced win Market where by the way if you’re not familiar bet 365 has the
Normal outright betting which is under their enhanced win but they also have each way betting so if you want to get um a portion of a fifth to eight an eighth of what you bet on the guy you can get that back or sorry you can get
That back um in each way betting so interesting to see if you can get the 5 to1 8 to1 return on that as well um interesting markets to check out I personally don’t do it very often but um it’s much more common in Europe than it
Is here in the US so interesting Market to look at but we’re looking at enhanced win where Rory mroy is the betting favorite eight plus 825 he is just ahead of Scotty Sheffer at plus 850 so among those two guys who are clearly in their own tier here on the odds board which
One would you rather have sheffler or maoy well markets in movement would say sheffler he’s becoming a pretty sizable favorite over Rory in a lot of these spots I’m going to take the reverse of that answer I’m gonna say Rory I think the public sentiment around him is a
Little bit lower than it should be uh I I’ve kind of been the boy who’s cried wolf with Rory all the time like I do it every single year at austa where somehow he he weasles his way onto my card and he ends up being my sole bet that I make
And it always ends in heartache I think 2024 may end up being the year of Rory I don’t even know exactly what that means if whether he wins a major or he wins you know a handful of times on tour I think this is a really nice spot where
He’s starting here where nobody’s gonna want to back him I thought the price was a lot closer than the general public and the market seemed to think for him so uh my model had Rory number one in projected win Equity Scott was very close it’s not like we’re talking about
A massive difference between those two I think that’s the one a and one b as you kind of stated there but I’ll be a little bit different and I will say Rory I would lean Rory just because you’re gonna have to make some more putts for part this week than normal and
I have more confidence with him than with Sheffer um also on the eway betting you get eight places and you can pay you can get a return of somewhere like a fifth to a tenth of the odds of your bet uh not five times or 10 times what you
Put down so uh just a clarification on that check it out it’s interesting if you like that um but I’ll agree with Rory getting into the next set of odds you’ve got Victor havind who is 13 to1 to win outright this week Xander shle is
15 to1 Max h on be 65 is 15 to1 but you’ve already discussed him and we’ll throw Patrick Hanley who’s 18 to1 in his conversation as well among havin shafley Klay which one would you rather have a ticket on this week I am much lower than
The general public on havin he’s the one that I worry about a little bit more when the winds pick up in that around the green game potentially going south so uh when I talked about there being that high-end nature of star versus star and this is kind of I’m gonna answer the
Question the same way like it’s but I’m just going to do it a little differently uh Xander over havin there was a price when it opened at like plus 100 and you’ve now seen that drift more into the minus 120-130 range for the Xander side there I think that that’s credible
Movement I decided not to go that route because I’m not trying to necessarily fade havet he’s still a top seven projected win Equity candidate for me but he’s lower on my model than he typically is during most weeks uh kley is gonna give you that Boomer bus answer
I never really have a problem with taking a chance with kley I just at these prices I can’t get there I think Xander’s playing really good golf at this point and at some point with like I know this is a no cut tournament and uh you know he’s made 37 consecutive Cuts
But the narrative for the longest time Roberto was Xander Justin Thomas you put them in a no cut tournament and that’s gives them their best chance to win an event and for whatever reason that has stopped I I have not heard anybody talk about that in weeks of these no cut
Events and I just wonder if at some point Xander ends up whether you want to say stealing one of these or putting the pieces together in the right way to win it I think is in a good spot to potentially do that so I think I can’t
Get there at the price unfortunately but I I did consider trying to bet him against havin and I don’t think the price is that bad in reality Xander last week nearly lost a stroke per round putting so in three of the four rounds because only three retracted Tory Pond South last week
Still finished in the top 10 at T9 so if he gain Strokes putting or is just a zero putting wise M won the golf tournament last week uh definitely tons of upside for him this week as well uh consistent throughout the bag which is why he’s won why he’s made so many Cuts
Uh just consider him like a super Stephen jger who by the way got in contention last week gonna be very interested to see how he plays this week get the big boys uh he’s got 100 to1 odds outright moving down the board Jordan spe 19 to1 JT’s 24 to1 here on
Bet 365 you’ve already got Colin Mory Kawa what do you think on would you rather have a ticket on spe or JT at those odds this week Thomas Thomas was somebody that I I did consider at the top of the I’m probably a little bit lower on speed than most people like I
Talked about it in a DFS article that I’m going to fade him just with the popularity around him I I think in the betting Market though you get a very similar answer where he has to be priced a certain way because he’s going to be a very popular commodity just from what
We’ve seen from him historically like he has been I mean I can’t think of somebody who’s more Helter Skelter like at this course than he is he will shoot the round of the day he will lose his ball off the coast he will almost fall off the coast here and there like he’s
Been all over the map I do think there are some similarities for him for why he’s found success my model really likes some of the safety answers just because of what he’s done here historically but the data worries me ever so slightly for the price that you’re paying this is not
This is not the spot of a couple years ago where and I’m not even talking like specifically this event but there were situations where spe was 30 40 to1 in some of these tournaments like now he’s sub2 to1 every single week it feels like and specifically here at
Like these 16 to1 prices I just can’t get myself to jump into that I think Thomas’s skill set is better suited for Pebble Beach and I I think that there’s a real chance that Thomas this could be the coming out party for him again where
He ends up capturing a title like he is one of those short list golfers in that 20 to 30 to one range that I did do an extra dive on love it you already know how I what I think about JT so we’ll move on oar is
30 to one this week your boy Tony feno is 35 to1 Matt Fitzpatrick 35 to1 Tommy Fleetwood 38 to1 and Sam Burns 38 to1 if he had to place a wager on one of those Five Guys Oar fenale Fitzpatrick Fleetwood or Burns who would it
Be th this is not I I gave you a great answer about Justin Thomas a second ago I I’ll give you a less great answer for that matchup that you have uh I kind of like Oar this week I think this is a nice bounceback opportunity for him when
We talk about the perception around him he he couldn’t make a putt I mean he was just awful on the greens and it was his first look at po we kind of talked about that being a problem I’d be curious to see what happens to him here um in this
This second look on the surface I think one of the things that is going to be the popular answer around him is he loses his driving total driving ability we won’t even say distance like he obviously loses the distance but he loses all of that total driving ability
That he brings to the mix and that’s why people are off of him that’s why people are off of Rory but he won the RSM classic that’s not your prototypical driver test sometimes early in these players careers you know you never know exactly what skill set they’re they’re
Going to bring for some of these events and oar for me is just a name that no matter really how I ran my model there was a lot that it liked about him um not so much to where I could get there on the price that we’re getting this week
Just cuz I I I do have a little bit more concerns with the putter than I did last week but it’s another golfer like Xander everything went wrong with the flat stick and you know just make a couple more putts and he wins the golf tournament Oar suffered from top of the
Leaderboard syndrome last week in that he had some bad putts that everybody saw on National Television yeah but he gained Strokes putting last week that was the shocking part of it did not yes exactly so you see the ugly ones but and those are the ones that are ingraining
Your mind but you’re not going to make all those at the end of the day um I I agree I think Oar has upside that’s intriguing but I still have that match up against him that’s my best bet because we love Justin Thomas here uh moving along we’ve got Jason day your
Other boy 45 to one sunj M whom you’ve got a match up beton at 45 to1 Tom Kim 50 to1 Nikolai hoard whom you bet on last week at 50 to1 also 50 to1 this week and then Benny on 50 to1 who nearly won the Sony Open in Hawaii if I gave
You a wager on one of those guys who would you pick Pro I mean not Jason day unfortunately this week um I I know the course history looks great and everything that he’s put together I I just don’t know exactly where what I feel about his game leading into this
Weekend and a lot of those events as we keep kind of alluding to it’s not the fields that we’re going to get this week I I want to try to find a golfer that I think has maximum upside in this section and um it’s kind of a very similar
Answer for why I like sunjay in the head-to-head Market well the floor is going to be a problem here I’m willing to take shots on sunj and like I prefer doing it in the head-to head bet there but there were positive trajectory returns inside of my sheet for why he
Should find success out at this course I don’t know if the wind ends up becoming a problem for I mean that could be for any body in the field but um there were some returns on sunjay that I I would at least consider I I don’t know at what
Price necessarily just because of the weather there like I said there there’s some problems that I have inside of my model when I look specifically for his returns in the win it’s not bad but he’s outside the top 15 for me and I feel like him more so than a lot of players
When I ran it for extreme wins he was ever so slightly putting up some bigger numbers than some other golfers there not not a noticeable difference but enough so to where like I had concerns about it but I I think of those names that we’re talking about he probably
Possesses the highest stealing so if I’m shooting for that I’ll go with sunjay I would agree with you there on sunjay we we have gone through everybody at 50 to1 or shorter so we’ll wrap it up here but Spencer where else can the people find your work this week you can
Find me on Twitter at tof sports I will be producing all of my Action Network uh articles starting on Wednesday we’ll talk about the sharp movement in the outright sector we’ll talk about what outrights I’m on spoiler alert we’ve talked about all of them here but we’ll
Get into more of an in-depth detail of why I back some of those and just where the best value on the market may be right now if you haven’t entered the market I always have my weekend articles in the head-to-head sector uh very hot week for me last week went three and 0
In total hit a big Adam shank plus 155 play over Patrick Klay if you can hit something for 1.55 units and get like a bed and a half out of it that’s always nice towards the bank roll so we’ll talk about some more of those matchup plays
And then as always if you like the model or if you like anything that you heard numbers wise you can get more of that over at Roto baller if you want to buy my model over there highly recommend buying the model look at it every week and it’s an
Awesome extra set of data to check out and see what you’ve weighed in there every single week uh because you’ve had so much success especially in outrights matchups and it gives you a ton of resources to play off of every single week uh also I know you got wind
In there which is going to be important this week as well uh you can find my work on Twitter at Roberto 8213 I am editing all the golf content at Action Network so be sure to check out the Action Network app if you haven’t already it’s an awesome resource
Got tons of great content on there from any sport that you could possibly find um watching the editing Alias seeing stuff on darts and and and Australian Open tennis and everything you never know what’s going to what’s going to pop in there you can also find our other
Links and locks podcast the Best Bets episode this week Jason soel and Ben everil are at Pebble Beach they’re traveling so my friend Andre Gonzalez and I hopped on the Pod we gave our 18 bets you can check that out Dre has played in this tournament a handful of
Times finished 10th in 2015 so check out his picks on our other pod it’s a little short than this one but you can check us out there and that’s about it want to give a big thanks to you the listeners for supporting us throughout the PGA Tour season hopefully this is the week
Where we cash in on a signature event been killing it in Best Bets I know Spencer you’ve been killing it on those weekend articles so be sure to tune in and find all of our content throughout the week and want to give a big thank you to everybody who makes this podcast
Possible especially our producers Noah neher David Payne and Matt Mitchell one final reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boosts with them than anyone else every day they power up the odds on
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