Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello and former pro Andres Gonzalez discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Beau Hossler
01:08 – Nick Taylor
02:38 – Justin Thomas
05:42 – Keys to the Course
08:12 – Justin Thomas
10:35 – Stephen Jaeger
12:15 – Emiliano Grillo
13:07 – Brandon Woo
15:09 – Jordan Spieth vs Colin Morikawa
16:57 – Tommy Fleetwood
17:52 – Sepp Straka
18:38 – Nicolai Hojgaard
20:29 – Justin Thomas vs Nicolai Hojgaard
22:22 – Nick Dunlap
23:52 – Longshots
23:55 – Top 3 Parlay
27:19 – Hideki Matsuyama
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#AuthorAndresGonzalez #AuthorRobertoArguello
The action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 this is your Best Bets episode for the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach proam the second signature event of the PGA Tour season alongside Andre Gonzalez for a PGA Tour professional I’m Roberto aruo Dre you finished 10th here in 2015 In This Very
Golf tournament so I’m excited to break it down with you we’ll get into our course preview before the 50 but to start off what is your first here on the first T at Pebble Beach uh I’m waiting for Bo Hustler to come out and and win a golf tournament
Bo has finished third and 11th in his last two starts on the PGA tour and I don’t think that there’s a better place to uh get your first win than Pebble Beach so at 55 to1 I am going to sprinkle a little bit on Bo Hustler all
Right we’ll see if the Texas Longhorn can come through here and we know he’s had tons of success in California bursting onto the scene at the Olympic club uh way back when the US Open was there in the early 2010s for my first bet here on the second T I’m going to go
With a long shot in Nick Taylor who is 121 to win this golf tournament you can find that out there and I really like Nick Taylor because yes he’s not super long off the te but this course minimizes the importance of driving distance off the te what you’re really
Going to have to do is you’re going to have to hit a bunch of great approach shots and Nick Taylor can absolutely do that he’s strong through everywhere throughout the bag outside of his driver wrecking the top 52 in Strokes gain approach around the green and putting
And he’s also great got great course history won this tournament by four strokes in 2020 and he’s also got top 20 finishes in each of the last two years as well played really well at the Sony Open in Hawaii a couple weeks ago which I think is the most comparable course
Among the ones they played on the PJ tour this season to Pebble Beach so I’m not gonna put too much emphasis on his miscut at the American Express course rotation easy pin positions the first couple days uh with the prom there and it’s going to help the bombers uh the
Bombers were rewarded for their length off the te there which they’re not going to be this year or this week so for all those Reasons I’m not reading too much into that miscut and I really like Nick Taylor’s chances of excelling again this week and you say well he won Pebble
Beach previously it wasn’t a signature event well last year in a designated event at the WM penix open he nearly won he gained over four strokes per round uh on the field so I’m really high on Nick Taylor’s upside and I think that he could play
Really well this week uh so with that being said let’s go to the third T Dre what is your second bet for the AT&T pel beach pro uh he’s won twice on tour JT Poston I think he has a lot of upside and one of the main reasons is that the
Guy can absolutely roll his Rock and when you get out here into what it looks like are going to be soft conditions uh on the pole and a greens I think that he has the ability to just kind of keep moving moving along plotting along and and rolls the ball very consistently uh
He has played very nicely in his last 12 events he has eight top 11 finishes in his last 12 starts he is currently at 55 to one and I think that these are two courses that you don’t need to overpower a lot of people are going to be in the
Field nobody is going to be uh exactly on point the entire time because with the winds picking up this weekend and from what it looks like the weather is going to be nasty it’s going to be who can out grind each other I like JT at 55 to1 and we’re gonna have
To touch him a little bit too yeah I really like JT and if this turns into a wedge and putting contest I’d love to have him in in my uh picks this week so he’s one of the guys that I just left off my card but I’ve got room on my card
As you mentioned there’s going to be weather rain looking like at at least three to the four days possibly every day and winds around 20 miles hour most days so I’m going to keep some room on my outright card so that I have a chance
To maybe play the weather or uh add some more bullets in tournament and JG poon is absolutely one of those guys that I’m looking for but for my second pick here on the fourth T I’m going with the other JT Justin Thomas I think Justin Thomas has as much upside as basically anybody
On the PGA tour I think that when Justin Thomas is in form he might be the third best player on the PJ tour behind Scotty sheffler and Rory Mel and we’re getting him at 25 to1 right now when he’s been a top five machine going back to the fall and if we’re
Going to be playing in weather I want somebody who can flight the ball and move it both directions and Justin Thomas is that guy I also think that on a course where you’re going to be hitting a lot of wed shots uh going to be a key proximity from 100 to 125 yards
And Justin Thomas can absolutely take advantage of those wet shots as well as anybody else on the PGA guys want a couple Majors big time player I know he can win in this kind of field so give me Justin Thomas at 25 to one Dre before we get to the fifth T new
Format this week for the 18t pble Beach pram we’ve got instead of a three course rotation you’ve got a two course rotation where you’ll be playing either Pebble or spy glass each of the first two days and then there’s a cut after two rounds and then or sorry no cut this
Week no cut this week 80 players in the field no cut in this uh small field event and play the final two rounds with no amateurs unlike in the past uh only on Pebble Beach on Saturday and Sunday should be awesome uh like I mentioned you finished 10th in this tournament
What are the keys to succeeding on both Pebble Beach and spy glass this week spy glass you have to get the ball in play you got to be in Short Grass there’s it’s it’s a fairly long course so if you are playing out of the rough you’re just
Not going to be able to control the ball quite as well coming in um I don’t know if it’s going to make quite as much of a difference as it has in the past with the moisture that’s going to be on the ground I think guys are going to be able
To control their ball pretty well out of the rough but it’s also going to be very thick with moisture in that long grass now again there the first couple days are going to be a proam so I I’m unsure how long the rough is going to be I
Haven’t heard any actual stats coming out on that but I do I think at spy glass it’s 2 in and Pebble it’s 2 to 3 in okay so it’s going to be longer than it has been the past and it’s usually very playable but I I still don’t think
With these guys they’re going to have a whole lot of trouble getting out of it and coming out of the rough with soft greens they should be able to control the ball but spy glass is substantially longer I just think that that’s one of the better courses on tour and as far as
The Monterey Peninsula that’s one of the best tests that there is there so got to get the ball in play got to leave yourself below the hole there’s a lot of different false fronts and edges where you need to make sure that you’re below
But at the same time if you are too far below it’s going to be running off the green it’s going to be it’s going to be fun I think that this is one of the best places on the planet to play golf I’m super excited to check this out we
Normally don’t get a ton of coverage at spy glass with there being three courses in the rotation but with just two hopefully we get a lot more coverage um because a lot of people don’t know that much about spy glass because we just haven’t seen it um wanted to add in that
Pebble Beach’s greens are an average of 3500 square feet which is the smallest on the PGA tour so I want players this week who are going to be able to fire at those small targets and who are who can Excel on approach and I also want because they’re super small greens
You’re going to miss some of them especially in the weather so I want guys who are really good around the green and I’ll add that Justin Thomas last year even though it was a quote unquote down year for him he still finished fourth in Strokes gained around the green so I
Think he has a lot of different ways to succeed and also last year his putter was really cold he’s got some momentum building with his putter over the last few weeks so I’m very excited about Justin Thomas and if he doesn’t win this week I’m probably going to be betting
Him in the next signature event as well um unless the number changes significantly but anyways let’s get back to the 50 Dre what’s your third pick for the AT&T P Beach proam so going through and running down the list of players this one jumped out at me because I’m
Just not sure why his odds were so long Keegan Bradley Keegan Bradley’s worked his way all the way back up to 15th in the world and he’s currently sitting at 70 to1 which I think is incred inredible he’s already touched the winner circle this year he didn’t get in there but he
Lost in a playoff at the Sony the second event of the year and it why he is at 70 to1 I’m not sure but they they’re pretty long odds for somebody that has a major under his belt and seven wins and I just think that he’s going to be someone that
You are going to be able to look at and count on not only is he long enough to overpower a course like spy glass I think I think that he’s been accurate enough and starting to putt well with that Jailbird putter when he gets on the
Greens to where he can make and take advantage of his length at Pebble Beach and hit a lot of wedges in so I think that he’s going to make a lot of birdies this week and at 70 to1 I think he is a very strong value bet all right well I think you’re
Looking on my notes because I have Keegan Bradley as an outright on my six on the 6t here as well um I found him at 80 to1 out there so be sure to chop around um that’s 365 has great odds but you always especially with these bigger
Odds you got to look around because there might be a difference in the market I’ll Echo all those sentiments he’s rolling the rock well with the putter that’s been a huge game changer for him since he went away from the uh belly putter previously and um he’s a
Lead on approach he won previously at the Zozo which is a ball Striker’s Paradise he won last year at The Travelers at another shorter course where you’re going to need to be elite with wedges and I bet him outright at the Sony Open was unable to cash that
One in unfortunately but I think a lot like we said with um Nick Taylor the Sony Open in Hawaii is the most similar tournament to this one at least in what’s going to me what players are going to need to excel at in order to be successful and the fact that he played
Really well then and now he’s a to one in this field again signed me up all day long I love Keegan Bradley as someone who can play on approach with the best of them on the PGA tour and if that putter gets hot we’ll see if the
Jailbreak can break free all right let’s head to the seventh hole T Dre you’re on the box Stephen Jagger coming off a solid finish top five finish this last week and he’s a guy that I’m waiting to break out he’s won six times on the corn fairy
Tour he shot 58 in his life and he’s one of these guys that has just recently started working with a sports psychologist and seemed very very even Keel all last week he played most of the week with the lead and just kind of fell short on Sunday but I think he’s going
To learn from it and I’m a strong believer that players when they are in a hot streak tend to be in that for about two three maybe four weeks and the the best players are the ones that figure out how to ride that on for months and
Years on end Tiger has obviously uh figured out how to do that uh I believe he’s going to find the winner circle this year he’s won so many times on different levels and I think it’s just a matter of time before he wins here so until he does 100 to one those are
Pretty good and I think that somebody’s going to hit big on him at some point this year yeah one thing that really stands out to me about Steph jerger is just how complete he is throughout the back there’s no weakness and if you look at his data golf profile you’re going to
See green everywhere he gain Strokes throughout the bag around the green putting on approach off the te he mentioned uh was mentioned on the broadcast how he’s worked on speed training worked on his body uh worked on his mind as you mentioned love step jger
100 to one I think it’s a great value um going to the eth T I’m gonna go with Emiliano Grio to finish in the top 20 at plus 280 Grio is a shorter hitter so his lack of length off the te is going to be neutralized by some of the force layups
On at least Pebble Beach um might be a little bit more of a challenge for him at SP class but he can throw darts with the best of them on approach so if we get him just into a wedge contest with these other guys I think he’s got a
Chance I don’t know that he can win this golf tournament in such an Elite field might need some help from the weather SL the course rotation but I think for top 20 at plus 280 I think there’s good value for a guy who can get sizzling hot
On approach and he was in the top 10 and throk gain approach last week at Tory Pines played well there so I think that if he can play well there and of course that really doesn’t fit his game this week on of course that does fit his game
There’s some value in the top 20 market so I like that for ailano Grio let’s head to the ninth T Dre who you got I like Brandon woo Brandon Woo is a Stanford grad and one of your boys there Alma moer and I think that after coming
Off a second place finish last year he’s kind of itching to get back to this location and he’s a guy that maybe not a lot of people know great ball Striker he can really get it hot with putter um but he’s a very long shot at 200 to1 to win
This thing but what I like the most and what I think is most realistic I I am kind of on the same side as you I don’t know if he can win this tournament I think that anybody in this field can but it’s will they and and like how
Comfortable do you feel out there but where I really like him is at 14 to one to finish in the top 10 I think that he is a a strong player and with the little taste that he got last year of success I think that he’s going to come in here
With a little bit of confidence and he’s played here a bit so I I would expect to see him finish high in the field Yeah you mentioned he’s played here a bit and a lot of guys haven’t played at this tournament because they’ve been at the Saudi International or they’ve just been
Taking a week off historically throughout this period on the PGA tour but he’s played this event in three of the last four years he also played in the 2019 US Open and he finished in a for 35th because he made the cut that week he actually missed our graduation
At Stanford so he got his diploma handed to him after he finished the 72nd hole and like I said t35 then in an Elite field T2 last year here he knows the courses well he can roll he can roll it on these uh POA greens I know he always
Does really well uh when we go to some more Coastal courses and some of the uh slower greens as well uh down in Mexico area so I think a lot of that makes sense and he’s really strong with this wedges so for all those reasons I think
Brandon Woo is a great pick here uh let’s make the turn and we’ll head to the 10th T I’m going to go with a matchup I got two of them today my first one is a plus money matchup where I’m getting plus 110 on Jordan spe over over Colin
Morawa I hardly ever bet against col morawa but if I do it’s because there’s going to be some weather involved he hits this perfect little baby cut fade all the time and when you got a fast ball that goes 105 miles an hour sometimes you don’t need to throw many
Other pitches and K morawa is that to a te but sometimes he can get blown off the golf course with that uh with that little fade and as a result I think that Jordan spe is somebody where if the weather gets wild this weekend he can
Make pars from anywhere and he can make birdies from anywhere off of uh the te as well I love his short game I love that he plays this tournament every year and col morawa hasn’t he never plays this event I think that says something about how much Jordan Speed likes the
Setup here and at spy here at Pebble and [ __ ] glass Hill and Jordan spe also coming off of a strong finish at the sentury as well so I like Jordan spe at plus money over Colin morawa you might remember we bet I bet Colin morawa at
The Zozo this past uh this past fall I love the zoo by the way but uh even though he won the tournament the second day at the zoo there were 3040 M hour wins and he shot like six over and people thought he might have been out of
Contention but then there was no win over the weekend and he went low and he won but the wind whenever col morawa is involved is something to watch out for let’s move to the 11th T Dre who you got I just want to add onto the tail end
Of that I think the only thing we have to worry about there is whether or not Michael gr lets him hang a foot off the edge of a cliff I mean that was one of the most terrifying things I’ve ever seen uh but to yeah to jump to my next
Bet uh I like Tommy Fleetwood the Englishman has been on tour now has not found the The Winner Circle but been on tour for 127 events he has 22 top fives this guy coming into Pebble this should set up well for him I love the way he
Strikes the ball I think that he controls his trajectory as well as anybody and with the winds picking up he’s going to be somebody that I think you’re going to slowly see creep towards the top of the leaderboard he’s at plus 700 to finish in the top five and
Wouldn’t Pebble beats be a romantic way for this world number 11 to find his way into the winner circle here on the PGA tour for his first win hey if we can get four straight 100 to1 or longer winners on the PGA tour why can’t Tommy food get
His first win in the signature event uh somebody who thrives when conditions are tough and I think he could be someone to watch out for this weekend no doubt about it let’s head to the 12th T where I’m going to go with sep straa plus 240
For a top 20 straa can go low he was on 59 watch last year at the John Deere classic which he ended up winning um didn’t shoot a 59 but he can go low he finished tie for second at the open as well so we know in Big Time Fields he
Can bring it as well and if we’re throwing darts he’s somebody who can throw darts with the best of them uh on the small greens strong with the putter strong on approach he’s not super long off te but he is super accurate and I think that’s going to play this week at
Two of the shorter golf courses on the PGA tour so give me sep sta plus two 40 for top 20 and this might be a little bit conservative you can also bet him for top 10 top five I like those as well Dre let’s head to the 13th T who you
Got uh Nikolai hoard he is playing some fantastic Golf 50 to one to win but I like his plus 850 to finish in the top five he’s been playing Great Golf and in his last five starts worldwide he won the DP World Championship he had two
Runners up and he had another top 10 the guy is playing some phenomenal golf I’m not sure what the odds makers are seeing right now with him at 50 to1 maybe they think that he’s a little bit tired coming off a a loss last week but second
Place is still pretty good at Tory Pines and he’s another guy that he’s a Dane I think that you get him in some bad weather and he’s going to step right up there and not think anything about it so at 50 to1 uh to win for Nikolai hoard
But I really like him and plus 850 to finish in the top five I think that’s a great bet I might have to tell that one myself um I’m super optimistic on hoard’s future he he and oar could be two of the European two he could be they’re probably the two best young
European players I’m GNA say Hof’s too old to be in that young young category and they’re going to be around for a long time and they both got some big time game I think they could be in the conversation for major championships this year how old are we talking hain’s what 26
Yes roughly right I like that but those two guys are insane and even though oar is the one who’s just gotten on the tour he’s two years older than hoard who’s been on the DP World Tour for years he’s got wins years ago so don’t sleep on
Hoard especially relative to Oar I know a lot of people think oar is a lot better than him they’re in the same class for me um heading let’s head to the 14 T where I’ve got a matchup and here is the natural transition I said all these great things about hoard and
Oar and I’m fading noar because I’m backing Justin Thomas at minus 110 over him in a full tournament matchup I I love Oar I think he’s great but he’s not in Justin Thomas’s class right now like I said I think Justin Thomas might be he has the third
Highest upside in this field I think he might be when we look back at this six month months later people say wow Justin Thomas was one of the best players on the PJ tour this year but he was priced as the 10th best player right now and
Oar is really solid and he and hoard are coming off of courses that are perfectly fit for their game as oar is one of the best drivers of the golf ball already on the PTA tour super long and that plays at Tory Pines but that lack of distance
Isn’t going to be uh an in that driving distance Advantage is going to be minimized this week and justtin Thomas has more shots in his bag give me him all day long at minus 110 I think this one might be my best bet of the week so
I love JT and like I said if things get squirely he’s fourth in Strokes gain around the green and Lou VI goar had some touchy misses around the whole last week I know that the POA is always a challenge but I like JT’s pting stroke a lot better than O’s right now
And I like his short game a lot better and I like his wedge game a lot better so as a result give me JT sounds like you just like him better all the way around right now all over it it wasn’t it wasn’t an
Oar problem it was more of I love JT and I think it’s a nice spot to sell high on Oar after playing on a course that’s absolutely perfect for him I think hoard and oar have to play at Tory Pines every year because that’s a bombers paradise
And those guys have big time game all right let’s head to the 15th T Dre who you got I’ve got Nick Dunlap I know that this is going to be his professional debut but like I mentioned earlier in the show I think that when players are hot players are hot it doesn’t matter
What level you’re at um but we’re gonna see I just think this is kind of a Cinderella Story with this guy the way that he has come off winning the US Junior the US amateur The Walker Cup coming out and playing in on a sponsor exemption at the
American Express and I think we all knew that he had every physical trait that you can need the only to to win a golf tournament the only thing that we really needed to see was if he had the mental capacity to be able to handle it all and
The pressure and the kid did not flinch he’s at 90 to one um I I don’t see him winning back to back just because that would be absolutely insane but I like plus 1800 for a top five finish and you can also get him at plus 700 for a top
10 I like his ability to stay consistent it looks like he doesn’t really falter that much in his mental game just watching him I you never know what is underneath the surface he may be nervous as can be but he sure didn’t show it and that’s somebody that I want to have on
My team if I ever see him go through there so plus 1,800 for a top five and plus 700 for a top 10 I like Nick Dunlap and in case you didn’t tune in to our PJ Tour live coverage of the American Express Dre you were on the
Course of course is there at the MX so you were there firsthand to see all of it big time performance for him especially on such a challenging Pete die finish on those 16 17th 18 holes at PGA West Stadium so really impressive if you’re coming away impressed from seeing
Him in person that week which I think everybody is with him winning I’m excited to see how he does this week against the big big boys on the PGA tour in a signature event I’ll take uh the Reigns here on the 16 T got a couple more long shots uh in the outright
Market my first one is Cameron Davis 100 to one weakness for cam Davis’s game is his lack of driving accuracy off the te it’s not horrible but I love targeting him on these Club down courses did it a couple weeks ago at the Sony Open believe he
Had a tie he was either in the first round lead or one stroke off of it and then he kind of fizzled through the rest of the tournament but he’s got upside he’s someone who like I said like on the club down tournaments I like on the club
Down courses because he can set up his strong approach play and I think he’s got a lot more upside than a lot of people realize played really well at the PGA uh last year and had it and the only three players I think that beat him were
Havland and uh kka and Sheffer so he can play at the big time courses when there’s rain and all the elements I like targeting an Australian because the Australian and uh because the AUST aans have great short game all of them uh I like his chances this week and at 100 to
At 100 to one I think it’s great value for someone who’s got bigger game I think he should be um he could eventually be a guy who you find in the 40 to 50 to1 range if he plays well throughout the season but right now I think he should
Be priced closer to 75 to1 this week so I’ll take him all day long at 100 to1 Dre you got one more pick for me here on the 17th hole who you got um I’m going to go to the top three players there is a parlay right now
For all three players and maroy Sheffer and havin finishing in the top 10 I like the chances of that an only an 80 man field and that’s at plus 900 parlays are always a little bit of a stretch but over the last eight months I think these three players have set themselves apart
As being the best three players in the in the world mroy coming off of a second place and a win in Deb on the DP World Tour Scotty sheppler is the number one player in the world I don’t know how you can bet against him in 23 events last
Year he recorded 17 top 10 that’s just insane to me the consistency of how he’s playing and then you have havin he’s the reigning FedEx Cup champion with three wins last season finished strong at the end of the year and I think he’s ready to go this season so I’d like the parlay
At plus 900 of maroy Sheffer and havland all finishing in the top done this week yeah I don’t know how you argue against any of those three guys one thing stood out to me about sheffler last 15 tournaments he’s played in with data he’s gained Strokes around the green on
Approach and off the te it’s just consistency everywhere except with the putter um but he doesn’t even need the putter to finish in the top 10 every week it’s it’s absurd all right last hole 18th hole I got one less outright give me at 80 to1 out there hii
Matsuyama he’s 11th in Strokes gain approach last week first in Strokes gain around the green and we know that he can stripe it he’s been aite on approach and around the green for just about forever it seems like he I think can take advantage of the tiny greens this week
At Pebble Beach I know he can flight the ball as well so give me Hideki Matsuyama at 80 to one as a guy who we know can win in Big Time Fields won the Masters a couple years ago he’s somebody who shouldn’t be 80 to1 just plain and
Simple I know that he doesn’t have the Firepower uh like a guy like Oar and hoard last but he still played well last week at Tory Pines so this week where distance isn’t an issue and not that he’s short he’s just not super super long this week I think the course fits
Him a lot better and I think that he’s got a chance to win and an 8 to one he’s somebody who has upside whom I can add to my card while still saving some room for some outright bullets in the tournament also want to give a reminder
That the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you get more boost with them than anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boost specific markets your
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Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call 1800 Gambler or 1-800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply all right Dre that’s our 18 holes where can the people find you and your content over the next few weeks uh I will be on course for PGA
Tour live next week during the Waste Management Phoenix Open you can find me on Twitter at andrees Gonzalez Gonzalez or on Instagram at Andre Gonzalez Golf and yeah love to hear from any of you I hope you enjoyed the picks awesome hyped to hear you at uh in
Phoenix next week that’ll be an awesome tournament as it is every year um you can find me on Twitter Roberto a213 got content coming for you later as well on the other links and locks podcast as we were filling in for Jason and then who are traveling today so hope
That they have safe travels and I know they’re going to be out at Pebble Beach this week so excited to hear from them uh and by the way if anybody ever gets a chance to go to pill Beach absolutely do it whether to play golf or just to watch
And check out the views the views are Second To None of any golf course in the world in my opinion haven’t been everywhere yet but second that all right I’ll take your word means a lot more than mine on this one um you can find a bunch of great act great
Content on golf on the Action Network app on the website uh we got Best Bets coming this Tuesday got early outright picks Jason soble has his awesome Mega guy that we posted yesterday so whatever you want one andone picks first round leader bets prize picks plays everything
You can find it on the Action Network website and app so be sure to check that out and you can check out the other links and locks tournament preview podcast I’ll be on with Spencer AG agar that’ll drop a couple hours after this one uh either on Tuesday night or early
On Wednesday morning so thanks again for tuning in to the links and locks Best Bets for the AT&T pel Beach pram and here’s to you hitting the green this week
