Vintage 100 Index!! End of 2023 Data!! What is it telling us??

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[Applause] welcome to the Golden Age of cardboard podcast where we remember a time when stacks of cards were held together with rubber bands and Mickey mtal were put in bike spokes we hope you will enjoy and reminisce as you come along with us as we tell stories about the baseball cards

From the Golden Age of baseball we examine the state of the vintage baseball card market and talk to some of the greatest collectors in the hobby you won’t be hearing us talk about any Chrome or shiny cards here now to take you on this retrospective Journey here’s

Your host direct from the shallow end of the Jean Pool my son Mike Moan yo and hello everybody my name is Mike this is golden age of cardboard hopefully you intended to click on this podcast SLV video uh if you didn’t just stick around a little bit we’re gonna have some fun we are going to do an episode tonight where I I track you know

How many people watch how many people listen and it’s important to look at Trends if you’re a content creator you want to see what people like you know at the end of the day I do content a lot of times that I don’t know how people are

Going to react and how people are going to gravitate towards it and then I do stuff that I know people like and this video is one of those because it is still my most watched most listened to Golden Age of cardboard episode ever was the first episode about

This topic and it was a couple years ago now uh I did a deal with John Wade bogs fan on the Vintage 100 index and it was this crazy idea that that he hatched I hatched we both H I guess it was a collaborative effort let me let him set

The record straight let me bring him on hey Mike John whose idea was this just I have to give credit it was it was your thought out there because you were talking about man it would be really cool if there was we could see some trends of some of these cars because I

Think you were doing a video about uh our sports cards uh recession proof or something like that and You’ man it’d be nice to know like how some of these cards trended during overtime and but that would be a lot of effort to to go back and enter data and stuff and I’m

Like dude I love number crunching so I reached out to you and said hey can we sort of do this I’ll I’ll do all the number crunching and can we get together and and put this together we collaborated on what cards in fact I

Think I used your list of uh I think it was the top postwar Hall of Fame rookie cards or something like that added a little bit to it to get to around 100 cards so I I do give you the credit for the initial thought and IDE and little

Light bulb uh and I just reached out to you to say hey I’d be happy to to contribute and be a part of it well let me give you all the credit because after we collaborated and worked hard on getting all the initial data back data

Kind of put in there as as back as it felt reasonable to go but going forward you have been the data master and been doing all of this with zero help for me and so kudos to you for keeping up with this uh it’s got to be a little bit

Easier KN you know you you’ve probably gotten good at it now uh and everything with time and practice gets easier but uh it’s amazing we are at the we’re basically going to look at uh last year’s data right and we kind of have it’s always fun it’s weird it’s just a

Calendar date but it it tends to matter calendar years people just you know with stocks and all of the things everything kind of ends on December 31st and you start over um it’s re very arbitrary actually um you can pick any day you want yeah but I think it’s telling to

What we’re going to see tonight in the data and what it’s going to show us and you and I are going to have a great discussion about it along with some new stuff that you’ve come up with do you want to talk about that first or do you

Want to get into the slide presentation yeah we we first uh started doing these I I did some episodes on my channel where I had you on uh we we started off on on bench clear here and did some more follow-ups we initially we were doing

This tried to do it on a monthly basis and we realized that it some of these cards some of them don’t sell uh in the particular grade every month and it it really wasn’t important for us to track things on a monthly basis so I think it

Was sometime last year I think maybe uh first of March of last year we said hey let’s let’s try doing something quarterly because that may give a add add to the trend rather than just look at month by month I think we did one maybe right before the national uh

The last one we did was in October I believe so it was the third quarter if you want to speak uh in that terms and then this is another three months later plus uh I have you know some some more data that we can uh look at but now

We’ve taken everything back from 2019 so we have five full years of data to take a look at to me the more data if you’re a data nerd like we are the more data points you have the better picture it tells the more complete picture it tells

Is probably the better way to say it Y and if you don’t know what we’re talking about if you don’t know what the Vintage one 100 index is how we came up with it how this all started we’ve given you a little bit of it now now go just type

Vintage 100 index in YouTube search or on uh your playlist or your podcast listens and you can find it under golden age of cardboard um I don’t even know the date it was a while ago a couple years yeah yeah but basically this is an investment advice we’re we’re not saying hey here

Are cards that you should buy now or going up or down it’s a general sense of the hobby if you want to call it Market just where cards are going in general and it just I I don’t know I find the stuff interesting I I know you do it as

Well uh and others seem to find it interesting as well but that that the point isn’t to say hey these cards here are ones that you should buy now or good buys or ones that we’re none of that this just for fun well let’s get into

The fun uh because you and I get to go into geekverse Ville uh here we go you start talking and I’ll flip slides so all right um You can go on to the uh the first main slide here the next one all right what’s new in in this

Video for the 100 index for what Mike and I are doing here um I I guess I’m a glutton for punishment um because if you do the calculation of 100 cards for 12 months in a year for five years you get a sense of how many data points that I

Had to manually ENT and that’s just for the Vintage 100 index I decided to create three more indexes what we did with the Vintage 100 index is we looked at the 100 cards as a whole and then we over the months and and in quarters we started to take a

Look at okay within those 100 cards uh let’s look at the cards from the 1950s and it was a smaller sample of the 100 and the cards from the 60s and 70s it gave a picture but again more data the better the picture that you can take

From it so I decided to create three more indexes of 100 cards I called the first one golden age I hope you don’t mind me stealing that that name there um so I forgot to turn in my trademark uh paperwork so you’re good all right so

The Golden Age index has 100 cards from from 1940 to 1959 so the 40s there are some but the main are in the 50s so 1940s to 1959 then the 1960s index if you can think of a cool name I’m all for it I just did the 1960s

Index how about The Swinging 60s swinging 60s that could be good I’ll I’ll make a note of that for for next time okay 100 cards from 1960 to 69 and of course then the 70s um 100 cards from 197 to 1979 now they make things a

Little bit easier for me and it makes sense the Vintage 100 index has some some good cards in it and so I’ve taken those 100 cards and spread them out within the new indexes as well and added in some cases I added probably close to 75 cards additional cards from that decade

Group um all of them are PSA graded cards and the data that I looked up was from vcp and so real quick just so maybe explain it a different way and clear it up just in case people don’t understand all the 100 cards from the index are in

Each respective uh decade in which you looked and then you all we you’ve added a bunch of other cards from each of those periods to get to a 100 cards in each of those so it’s a it’s an even larger sample size of cards uh you mentioned PSA you’re using what we

Commonly refer to as investor grade I mean not investor grade collector grade so the decade n num number of the decade equaling the numerical value of the grade of the card y 40s are going to have fours 50s are gonna have fives Etc yep with one exception one tops Mickey

Mano in there there was no way I was gonna have that as a five it totally SK yeah so I used a one um it’s still going to weigh somewhat heavily but it’s one card out of 99 in that Golden Age index so it’ll have some influence but not

Huge like it may if I had included that in the Vintage 100 index um but um so yeah we went with collector grade so just to give everyone an idea um those five years of data for these three new indexes I entered I calculated at approximately 12,000 data points so I’ve been busy

Over the last three or four months dude you’ve got to be excellent at 10 key now yeah looking at one screen look luckily I have a dual screen setup one screen has the vcp and I’m and I’m doing it and I’m the other one has the spreadsheet

And yeah anybody that doesn’t use dual screen and it’s funny because I don’t have dual screen in my office here but at work I certainly do y it changes your life and I always thought that was a bunch of hooey and then I used it and I

Yep okay I’m con so much better to work so love that that’s a lot of data and you’re a trooper man I appreciate it so the next uh the next set of slides here and now I’m going to talk about this for those listening to the podcast it it may

Not be as um impactful as those watching the video here but I’m going to very quickly in the interest of time here go through all the cards that that are included in these three new indexes and for the ones that are watching the video the cards that have a sort of a red

Border or outline to them those are the cards that are part of the original vintage 100 index all right so get the clicker I love all these cards this is cool I know as as I was putting this together I’m just like oh my God these cards are so beautiful it’s the greatest

Collection ever yeah right it is I yeah people would be very envious of of someone who had all those cards all right so we’re going to start off with the 1940 playball of Joe dagio Ted Williams from 41 playball again dagio and Ted Williams then we get into the 48

Bowman of barah feller ker mual rudo Shandi uh Slaughter and spawn and on the next one now we’re into the 49 Bowman we have Ashburn Campanella Doby uh Gil Hodges Bob lemon Satchel Page P Reese uh Robin Roberts Jackie Robinson Duke Snyder and early win and I properly Cate categorized the 1949 Leaf

I put them as 1949 even though PSA and vcp have them as 48 but we’re starting off with Stan musal then we have the satro page Jackie Robinson and the Babe Ruth then for 1950 Bowman we have the um Don Nukem uh Jackie Robinson Ted Williams then for 51

Bowman Wy Ford Nelly Fox Monty Irwin the Mickey Manel and Willie Mae rookie cards then we move into 52 Bowman mantle ma museal 52 tops mantle Eddie Matthews rookie card Willie Mays uh Orlando sep or sorry mini manosos rookie card Jackie Robinson ho Wilhelm then into the 53

Bowman we have the combo card of Yogi Bara Hank Bower and Mickey Manel then Mickey manel’s card and Stan musal we have the PE Rees then into the 53 tops we have mantle maze Satchel pagee Jackie Robinson 54 Bowman Mickey Manel uh Willie Mays Ted Williams then I

Went off the beaten path a little bit um and went with the Dy Mickey Manel then the red har Mickey Manel and Stan musal those two cars especially for the the red heart they’re very popular cars for those two players in the Decades of the

50s uh then 54 tops went with the Hank Eren rookie card Ernie Banks rookie card Kine rookie card Ted Williams card number one and 250 then in 55 Bowman we went with the mantle and Maze then 55 Topps we have Aaron Clemente Karu kofax not kuu kbu kbu yeah Clemente kbu and

Kofax uh Willie Ma Jackie Robinson and Ted Williams then for 56 we have the the Luis apparicio rookie card the Mickey Manel Willie Mays Jackie Robinson Ted Williams then in 57 seven we have Hank eron the Jim Bunning rookie card Don Dale rookie card Mickey Manel then the

Combo Yankees power hitters of mantle and Bara then the Willie Mays Bill mazeroski rookie Brooks Robinson Frank Robinson rookie cards and the Ted Williams in 58 we have the Aaron we have the World Series batting foes of mantle and Aaron love that card Orlando sepas rookie card the

Mantle mantle Allstar card that’s a popular card in that set of course the Roger meis rookie card as well then we finish it up here with the Willie Mays and Ted Williams and then for 59 Hank Garen Bob Gibson rookie card Mickey Manel the Mickey Manel Allstar

Card and Willie May so that makes up the Golden Age index let me ask you a question for those listening or those watching obviously that if you’re listening or and you heard Mantle’s name a lot Ted Williams Willie Mays Hank Aaron um is there a reason why and I

Think I know the reason but I want to hear you explain it it’s so loaded with those types of players yeah I win and again it it’s subjective somewhat and there are some cards you may say well you know why did he add that or or

Especially maybe when we get to the 60s and 70s why didn’t you include this card one I’m limited to 100 okay I wanted to keep the index to 100 one and then two I I basically went with the the more popular players in the hobby the ones

That that have the most interest the ones that you know if you were if you were to probably rank the the the players in terms of the hobby not necessarily how great of a baseball player they were but in terms of the hobby um what cards do collectors want

And it’s The Mantel The Mazes the um Hank aens you know those types of players and so that’s sort of where I tended to go with um and also rookie cards as well you’ll see some scattering and that’s mainly what the Vintage 100 index was made up of Hall of Fame rookie

Cards so like well why Jim Bunning well it’s a Hall of Fame rookie card and there’s an attraction to collectors wanting Hall of Fame rookie cards as well there’s registry sets and all that stuff stuff so that’s sort of did I get it right probably not you can let us

Know in the comments if I you know if I had a major Omission uh but those are the ones that I went with I think you did a great job selecting them uh it’s look you’re going to pick the Blue Chips right and if to use a stock analogy most indexes are the

Blue Chips and so it just makes sense that plus these are track these are there’s more transactions in these cards have better data right um I the only glaring Omission I see in all 100 cards is I would have somehow included the 41 playball Peewee Reese

Rookie um in the 41 playball and to have another 40s card and maybe get rid of you don’t really want to get rid of any cards in the in the mega index but that would you know peew re not not a hugely popular hobby guy but he’s got

Multiple cards in this set in this index already yeah but that 41 playball ree would be one I would say would uh was just instantly I thought of I wonder why that’s not in there so just that yeah that’s that’s a that’s a valid point

Um so just maybe you get rid of one of the manual Allstars and add that card that could be yeah down the road but again that’s very little criticism for me I I love it let’s let’s keep going yep all right so into the 1960s index uh

Obviously starting with 1960 we have the Aaron uh Ernie Banks Clemente Jim cot rookie Sandy kofax Mickey Mano Willie May the Willie mccovy rookie Stan musal and the carmy rookie card those look so cool together yeah they really do into 61 we have the eron banks Clemente kofax

Mantle uh the mantle MVP uh that’s a personal favorite of mine so that’s why I included that um the Juan Marell rookie Willie ma Stan musal and Ron Santo Billy Williams rookie cards in 62 we have Aaron Banks the Lou Brock rookie card let me interject real quick a point

You just because you said something that hey I put the Manel in there that mvp because it’s a personal favorite I I doubt changing all these you know you can again nitpick the choices it’s just meant to show a trend right and so I think it’s important for people not to

Get too hung up on the cards we’re now showing a lot more or you’re now going to be tracking a lot more cards in the three different indexes 300 cards instead of 100 yeah so if let’s say 10 of them are would somebody would change out and not agree

With it’s not going to really move the needle that much I would not think so probably not you’re right yeah so I’m just trying to not throw too much shade I and I just I’m sorry I just love looking at this page of all okay all

Right continuing on the 62 we have the Clemente kofax mantle Maris popular card because of the previous year with the 61 home runs uh Willie May Stan musal Gaylord Perry rookie then in 63 Aaron Banks Clemente now this is an interesting one again I put it in there

The 62 home run leaders one card five Hall of Famers really so I think that’s a fairly popular card in that expensive actually yeah so yeah then kofax mantle and mayus and ending with musal uh the Tona rookie the Pete Rose rookie and the Willie Sturgill rookie so that rounds

Out 63 then in 64 the Hank Aaron rookie the uh Dick Allen rookie card uh that’s part of the 100 index we put him in there even though he’s not on the Hall of Fame I think when we put the index together there’s a good chance that we

Thought that he was going to be in the Hall of Fame so that’s why that card is included uh just for some context there Ernie Banks Roberto Clemente kofax mantle Maize the Phil ncro rookie uh the seconde Pete Rose card and then starting 65 we have Aon

Banks uh the Steve Carlton rookie card Clemente Catfish Hunter rookie card kofax mantle ma the Joe Morgan rookie card the Tony Perez rookie card another Pete Rose again big hobby favorite um and then going into 66 we have Aaron and Banks the the triple 1965 batting leaders you have Clemente Aaron and

Maize another big card in the 60s six set with those three Hall of Famers uh the Roberto Clemente the Fergie Jenkins rookie card kofax mantle maze Jim Palmer rookie card uh the Pete Rose Don Sutton rookie then in 67 we have Aaron Banks the rod Karu rookie card Clemente mantle Mae Rose Siver

Rookie card then in 68 Aaron Banks bench rookie Clemente the superstars card of KBW Maze and mantle another big uh combo card uh in the in the 68 set then mantle and Maze and wrapping 68 up with rose the Ryan rookie and Tom sver second-year

Card his first solo card then in 69 we have the Aaron Banks Clemente the Raleigh fingers rookie Reggie Jackson rookie the mantle the the more common yellow name uh version of the mantle uh mazee Rose and Ryan’s uh first solo card any thoughts on the 60s there love it love

It I nothing came to mind I love that you included a couple of the more popular uh leaders cards that was really cool and uh yeah let’s keep trucking you’re doing let’s get moving here so we can actually get into some the data here into the 70s index here uh for 1970 we

Have Aaron Banks bench Clemente Jackson Willie Mays Thurman mson rookie card Rose Ryan Siver um then in 71 we have Aaron Banks bench blle rookie card Clemente Reggie Jackson Maize the awesome Thurman mson card Pete Rose Nolan Ryan Tom Siver and the Ted Simmons rookie card in 72 we have Aaron bench

Clemente the Fisk rookie then the Reggie Jackson Willie ma Thurman mson Pete Rose Nolan Ryan then moving into 73 uh Aaron bench cleme the Dwight Evans rookie card uh the uh Goose Rich gosage rookie card Jackson Mae mson Rose the alltime home run Leaders with Babe Ruth Hank garon and Willie

Mays I think that’s card number one in the 73 set it is yes yep uh the Ryan card Schmidt rookie then in 74 we have the Hank eron home run King card bench Jackson alkine I put that in there because it’s his last playing Days card uh somewhat popular card when you’re

Collecting Hall of Famers to collect their last playing Days card so I threw that one in that one can be up for debate but nonetheless I I stuck it in there uh mson Dave Parker rookie card Rose Ryan Schmidt’s secondy Year card and the Dave Winfield rookie card

Then in 75 I went with the Aaron bench Brett rookie Gary Carter rookie Bob Gibson’s last playing Day card Reggie Jackson h i Up For Debate as well uh I went with one of the MVP cards from 1957 that shows mantle and Aaron I thought that

Was a a cool card to have those two 57 tops cards of those two players shown on that MVP card that subset there then I went with mson the Jim Rice rookie card Rose Ryan and Robin y rookie then in 76 the Hank eron uh the

Home Run Record card and then his base card as well then the bench Brett Eckersley rookie Reggie Jackson Thurman mson Rose the sporting news alltime all stars of Babe Ruth Nolan Ryan then getting into 77 we have the bench the Andre Dawson rookie card Mark fidr the

Bird um that’s a popular card in that Set uh the Reggie Jackson Thurman mson Dale Murphy uh rookie card Rose Ryan Bruce hoter rookie card then into 78 we have bench Jackson uh then the Moler traml rookie card the Jack Morris rookie card Thurman mson Eddie Murray rookie Pete Rose Nolan Ryan

And sweet Lou wh Whitaker’s rookie card then finishing it up with 79 we have bench Jackson mson Rose Ryan Aussie Smith rookie card and even though it’s not part of the70s we had a part of the Vintage 100 index we had to include the 1980 Ricky Henderson rookie card so that’s the 70s

Index there’s a sneaky card that I’ve been discovering is sneaky popular and expensive is the Dusty Baker Don Baylor rookie card in 71 that might be one to throw in there somehow figure out something that could be that’s that you were less excited about sure yeah might look at the data

On that lots of Thurman Munson I like that he’s yeah that’s I have to be honest that’s sort of a that’s a person favorite I know I know there are a lot of Thurman mson fans out there a lot believe that he should be in the Hall of

Fame so that’s why I I went with once and again someone I’m sure could say maybe way from Philly where’s Schmidt where’s Schmidt but again I had I had to pick there were some ones I included and some I didn’t you know I I couldn’t include all the Hall of Famers or all

The major Stars so right all right let’s actually get to the numbers here um so this is for the Vintage 100 index the the original index that we uh put together uh last time we did this was in October of last year and the index which revised when I do this

Data entry every once in a while vcp sticks in a oh by the way here is another entry that we pulled at just at the end of the month and then I missed it from the last time so the revise doesn’t change a whole lot but it just

To be upfront it did change slightly uh to 1,117 and change so basically what that means is for the Vintage 100 index the average price of a card of those 100 cards was $1,117 so that’s what the quotequote index means so and to take it a step

Further if you wanted to buy all 100 in October 2023 it would have cost you 111,000 bucks yes good way of of of restating that as well yes yeah $111,000 um so to buy a 100 cards that’s not very many yeah it’s not um you you

You’ll see once we get to the 60s and 70s index how that sort of becomes somewhat reason more reasonable let’s should say right uh so this same index in January of 2024 now again it’s also good to to keep in mind or to remind people that have been watching these when I say

Index for January 2024 we’re in January so the data is as of December 31st 2023 we’re calling it January uh because that’s when I’m entering the data for so it it it’s like the month prior to I know it’s somewhat confusing but it’s the best that we can sort of come up

With in terms of calculating what what date we’re referring to right so January it went down to 1,48 and change so in the last three months the index the average price per card went down six% and since just for the quarter just for that yeah just for that quarter for

The whole year going back to January 2023 the cards in the index on average went down 15% my laundry is done okay I wasn’t sure whether that was me or you just say my laundry is done we hey I can’t just be a contra I got to do real

Life stuff you know yep can’t just sit around talking vintage 100 indexes but yeah uh crazy that it’s down 15% and I would say from a practical standpoint I see that yeah and I think a lot of people a lot of collectors would see that they’re they’re starting maybe not

Great bargains but they’re starting to see maybe some more deals out there that okay I’m not having to pay more and more oh I got a deal on this one I got a good deal on that one and it’s that softening that that the data shows that I think

People or collectors are actually seeing yeah all right now we’re going to get even more geeky we’re into graphs now um and th this just when we first did this index um that Spike that you see right in the middle of the graph in early 2021 like the third and fourth month of

2021 that just put into visual perspective what everyone was dealing with during the height of covid we had all this money flooding in and people were just buying cards and prices were going through the roof and that clearly shows what was taking place there and then the

Following months the drop off and since that drop off it’s been okay where where are things going to go and it it’s been sort of a roller coaster ride since then um I I keep referring in past uh episodes of are we going to find a floor

Is is there going to be a certain point where it looks like it stabilizes and then we maybe revert back to the not the prices but the trend of 2019 where you normally think vintage the stock analysis the granny stocks the the the big stocks not the

High growth stocks like the you know Amazon or you know you name it um the ones that you you hold and over time go up in value but nothing crazy we haven’t seen that yet since since the start of 2022 we haven’t reach that point where prices seem to be stabilized okay

We’re at a at a new normal if you want to call it that and then steady growth from there we’re we’re still seeing some push down in in prices yeah and it and it bucks the trend line right the the line going right through the middle is a regression line linear regression

Ression line which in math speak just means a trend line and uh that you know we’re still below the trend line which means typically you’ll stay down there I think we’ll I think we’re going to stay here for a while yeah if not go down further

Yep so now we have the same chart but for the Golden Age index now if if you noticed it going from one to the other it looks like everything moved up that’s just the scale okay so keep that mind but with the golden age so now we’re

Dealing with cards from the 40s and 50s you still still see that big spike in uh early 2021 and it going down but then there’s a little bit of a rebound and it started to go following that that trend line that you see going through the graph there and then you got

To the end of 2022 and that’s when you see it just starting to really start softening and go back down uh you’re probably talking uh the average price maybe $3200 down to about the 2750 somewhere around there um that’s a decent drop per average price

Sure um I don’t know I just it and again looking at early 2023 it looked like okay maybe it’s going to start going up again and then it just fell off we we’ve talked about like well what factors are out there what what what’s in play there’s still a demand for these

Cards okay but is it people’s disposable income is it more of a macroeconomic issue people have you know inflation people worried about hey can I pay the mortgage and car bill and food I’m going to have to you know cut back on my hobby budget so when there’s less dollars chasing the cards

Then prices tend to go down um so that whole Supply demand the the suppli is out there in vintage the suppli is the supply okay now not many maybe put up for sale some in collections that I’m not selling and stuff but generally speaking the supply is out there if you

Want a 1958 tops Mickey Manel you can find one sure okay um so it’s not hey suddenly there’s a glutton of 58 tops Mickey manal um I don’t think has changed on Supply it’s the demand yep I totally agree uh here’s the 60s yeah now here’s the thing yeah well a

Little bit different though if you notice that it had the spike in early 2021 all right the dip following it wasn’t as dramatic then it went back up and hit a new high in early 2022 so it it had that big rush like all the other cards then it came down then

It came back up again then down and then again it tried to find a new level there and it has since dropped off and I have a theory about it but I don’t I want to get your thoughts on maybe what what we’re seeing here for 60s

Cards my theory would be uh I mean if you look at what the index scale is on the left they were already relatively cheap to the 50s and they looked like a more attractive option as the 50s cards Got Out Of Reach and so people started

Saying well I’ll move on to the next decade for a little while and that increased demand from a lower demand for the high prices of the 50s just made these cards more popular More in demand I that’s where I was going as well you had I think with the initial and you can

Say whether it was the government checks that you were getting during covid this or that or whatever more money was coming in and what was being purchased or collected invested in whatever you want to say um it was the the big name 50 cars I think that had those were the

The shiny cards that people wanted to buy and it bumped those prices up dramatically then as you said after that died down a little bit the budget I think the big money went to the 50 s then as you said the smaller money then started saying hey I okay I can’t afford

These crazy prices now for some of these 50s cards let me take a look at 60s it it’s the same thing of if you take an individual card and you’d really like a PSA 6 but the PSA 6 is now out of your budget well what do you do you look for

A five or a four right it’s a whether it’s a 52 Manel or 69 Nolan Ryan all right at one point you may have been your bu budget may have allowed a certain grade but then through different circumstances through either that card going up past your means you look at lower grades same

Thing I think here we’re seeing with the different decades it could also be a combination of what we’re talking about and over time this is kind of this is a funny view of Shifting hobbyists through 2021 they were buying all the 50s cards they wanted and they just kind of

Shifted and moved on to the 60s not because of maybe prices but because I already have all those now I’m going to go after the0 that could be another Factor as well yeah yeah they gone they went through the 50s 40s and 50s that they want and now it’s now they’re after

The 60s and it could trickle down to the 70s as we’ll see yeah and and so you have this again multiactor pressure um potentially again we’re we’re theorizing here obviously we don’t we we’d love to to know what you know in the comments uh uh for those watching

The video here on YouTube what your thoughts are in in this data that you’re seeing maybe you have an Insight that we haven’t even thought about right okay 70s 70s all right you you for the 70s you don’t see the it went up but you don’t see that big spike

It it it it hit a high and then stayed there for a little bit went down then again reached another peak in that just sort of like the 60s in that early to mid 2022 and then it’s been slowly going down since now again as you pointed out

In the 60s take a look on the leand side at the dollar amounts we’re talking about here we’re not talking about huge dollar amounts that the height of the index is a $200 card so we’re talking at the most maybe $160 card at the height and now it’s maybe down to around

130 okay so it’s when it gets to dollar values we’re not talking huge gaps here just because the they’re their 70s cards and they’re less expensive all right uh we’re almost at the the end here what I did was since we have five four years of data I decided

To look at the now the four indexes and see what the percentage change was for the five years so for 2019 looking at that full 12-month period for the Vintage 100 index it was up 7 a half then you see it Spike up 51% growth then 55 and then another

55% then in 2022 it was down two and a half and then that as I stated earlier that 15 uh percent drop golden age actually had a higher uh increase in 2019 higher increase in 2020 almost 6 67% increase in 2021 but then it’s pulled back more in

2020 about the not just under 10% and then another 7 and a half% in 2023 um for 1960s really in 2019 there really really wasn’t much change in the index for cards from the 60s it just held its own uh 2020 though saw an 82% incre almost 83% then another 26% increase in

2021 not much of a backdown in 2022 but then 11 and a half uh percent drop in 2023 and then finally for the 1970s 177% increase in 2019 followed by a 75% increase a 38% increase really no change for the index for the 1970s for 2022 it started where it started and

Ended there was movement in between but pretty much flat uh in 2023 a somewhat similar 11% drop in price but and which is going to lead into the next and final slide percentages are deceiving because you you get say a card from the 70s that goes from $20 to $27

Well that’s a big increase percentage wise yes percentage wise not dollar-wise but you take a card from the 50s that goes up you know $3 $400 that that’s a significant increase dollar-wise but maybe not percentage all right so here’s where I actually said let’s let’s look

At the dollar and when I say dollar change remember the index represents the average price of a card in that index so for the Vintage 100 index in 2019 the average card went up by 38 bucks not bad 2020 went up by 277 per card on average in 2021

$454 increase in the average price of a card in that index and that vintage 100 includes the 70s cards it includes the 7s cards so it would be even more dramatic in the 50s and 60s rookies we’ll see here in the Golden Age and when we when we go in those individual

Indexes yes yeah in 2022 the average card went down 32 bucks sort of wiping out what you in 2019 and then in 2023 uh the average went down by like 190 bucks per card so there’s that this I think is even more important than the percentages the percentage AFK it’s it’s

Good to look at and stuff but this is where the rubber meets the road in terms of actual dollar how much you have to spend for a card yeah and that’s where you see the changes here so for the Golden Age so again these are the 40s

And 50s cards in 2019 the average card went up by just under 100 bucks in 2020 $646 in 2021 the average card in that index went up by over $1,200 per card on average just just crazy crazy and then we saw that I mean I remember that right anybody listening

That was in the hobby then you know this is reality we all experienced it yeah and in 2022 we saw a pull back of $300 which is good and another $200 in 2023 but not even even those two years don’t even you know take away the increase in 2020 let alone the huge

Increase in 2021 yeah then for the 60s we have again fairly flat $6 change in 2019 up $128 now again for a card from the 1960s that’s fairly significant for sure 2021 74 bucks still you can feel it a little bit uh down six bucks in 2022 and then 40 bucks in

2023 and then for cards from the 70s we have a 9% increase in 2019 on average increase of $44 in 2020 another roughly $40 in 2021 zero I mean like flat like the the average price starting 2022 was $143 and it ended the average was

$143 uh and in 2023 we saw a pullback of $16 per card so percentages those those crazy percentages for the 70s equate to less than 50 bucks up or down for any given year I want to go back to the Golden Age real quick because I think it’s important to understand compounding right

And the idea is that well it’s up 1250 that’s not from the beginning that’s just from the previous year so you if you add all those up from the from 2019 to 20 to the end of 2021 you were paying $1,100 a card to $3,100 a card $2,000 a card difference

Yet went up that year 1250 but you tack on the 646 and the 92 from the pre you know it’s a cumulative effect of just significantly more dollars to buy these cards each card you know it’s a big deal yep and of course I decided to start my vintage collection in mid 2020

Yeah great timing great timing John yes so I can definitely feel that pinch and which is why actually which is why I started in the 1970s I didn’t try to go after those 50s cards I’m like let me go after after the the 1980 79 78 77s because those weren’t

Seeing as much of a crazy increase it was seeing some but not like the 60s or 50s sure uh all right we’ll do some final thoughts and takeaways here let me uh remove this and wow I mean first of all great job on all the data uh great card selection I

Think it’s tons of data this is a lot to absorb yeah this is one of those videos that I think people will watch multiple times or rewind certain parts that they want to hear and listen again uh you did an amazing job explaining everything and and going through the

Data uh lots of data there but my overall takeaway and big picture thing is card prizes are softening across the board whether it’s 40s and 50s 60s 7s you’re seeing the Vintage world uh soften it’s just the best word I can use for it I don’t want to say

Cratering or because it’s not nothing’s crashing down it’s it’s yeah but and uh again for a guy like me that’s still accumulating cards great uh cheaper the better I’ll take them all for a dollar if somebody would s me I I can start looking at some 50s maybe late 50s but

Some 50s cards to add to my collection where in the last couple years no right and it’s so it’s it’s good for the collector uh I I again if you’re a guy that bought all these cards in the height of it and paid relatively top dollar pricing for everything I’m one of

Those guys John that I once I buy a card I don’t really care anymore it’s it’s kind of sunk cost to me you know that money is spent and and I’m not looking to sell so I’m not taking a loss right because I’m not selling and yeah I only

I I do a recap and you do it as well uh you know the top 50 most valuable cars in our collection it it’s just to to put a list together that’s the only time I even look up where those prices just just to see how they rank in my

Collection really that’s all it is is just to determine ranking I look at a card I’m like okay it’s worth that okay fine and I put it back in my in my box you know yeah but I don’t want people to feel bad because there’s plenty of cards

That I look back and I got relatively speaking screaming deals on you know the longer you’re in this Hobby and I’m mainly talking to the people that are relatively new to Vintage patience is your best friend because I I’ve always said today’s high prices are tomorrow’s discounts and I

Still even today think that’s true that over time not tomorrow not next week but prices will start we will see a a turn in that uh trend line we will or not the trend line just the data points will start turning and and start an upward Trend uh eventually cards will be worth

More than they were in 2021 at some point down the road it that’s pretty fair to say based on history and you just got to be patient all the cards you paid a lot for you’ll make it up on other cards that you get cheaper now and

That go up in value and you’ll end up okay uh we all have I have cards that I paid that I’m underwater on technically on paper right uh if I was to try to sell them now I would lose money from what I purchased them at but I don’t

Lose any sleep over it yeah it’s it’s it it’s it’s the expansion of the uh famous phrase that uh uh I think Eric U those back pages Say Never a bad time to buy a hank iron rookie card right extrapolate throughout this whole index or even vintage cards as a whole

If you’re a collector and your purpose is to to to build a collection yeah maybe occasionally sell some stuff if you want to go in a different direction to to fund that and stuff but if you’re primarily a collector and not in it to try to make

Money it’s never a bad time to to you know add to your collection whatever that may entail yeah you do the best you can in the moment given the circumstances that exist and you try to make the best deal you can and and then say all right next card you know um

That’s a great I think thing to end on we’ve given people we’ve fire hosed them with a ton of data yep take your time going through this people enjoy it go back and listen parts or sections that really interest you please leave us comments uh John and I would love to

Hear what you guys think uh about the anal Anis and just would love to hear your opinion on takeaways from the things that you saw here today and there there there’s nothing to say that I can’t tweak you know as you maybe brought up here a card or two in one of

The indexes it’s not the end of the world it’s not that much for me to to take one out and add five years of data for one card switch it out so it’s not that you know owners it’s not like oh sorry it’s it’s set and you can’t do

Anything about it so we can have that conversation offline maybe do a couple tweaking here and there and and move on from there so good deal well John thanks so much for the work uh putting this together I hope you everybody out there enjoyed it I hope you enjoyed it John

Doing it probably fascinating to see all the numbers come together and what story they’re telling as you’re putting them in uh that’s got to be satisfying and it’s awesome work thank you my my it’s labor of love I just I I love this yeah sure well everybody

Thanks so much for listening uh this week golden nature cardboard we’ll talk to you guys soon and uh stay tuned for an episode next week keep collecting