Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello, Nick Bretwisch and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Farmers Insurance Open on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction
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00:00 – Farmers Insurance Open Best Bets
05:54 – Course Preview
10:23 – Outright Bets
25:33 – Farmers Insurance Open Picks
31:23 – bet365 Promo
32:12 – First Round Leader Picks
33:30 – Rapid Fire Picks
44:21 – Final Picks
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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello
Hello you beautiful degenerates and welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 along with Spencer agar and Nick brwi I’m Roberto aruel and we’re excited to get into our 2024 Farmers Insurance open betting preview this week the PGA Tour heads to La Hoya California
Where they will play the North and South courses at Tory Pines three rounds on the south course which is where 2021 US Open was hosted and then one round in the first two days on the North Course for a 36 hole cut gentlemen it’s the second week in California on the PGA
Tour Spencer I know you hit with your best bet last week with Chris Kirk over Shane Lowry what is your best bet this week I’m gonna go back to the head-to-head Market I do think that there are some placement Wagers that are that we will get to later in the show
That I found a bunch of value on this week I’m going to go with the little bit of the safer route here I’m gonna say Ryan Fox minus 110 over Billy Hall all right Ryan Fox over Billy H horel Nick what’s your best bet this week staying in the matchup Market which for
Me is new so take that with a little bit of caution but Adam Svenson over Amano Grio minus 120 all right going with senson and my best bet I’m going to take a shot on Steph joerger 54th or better this week at the Farmers Insurance open but first
Spencer jump into why you like Ryan Fox in your match up bet I thought players like [ __ ] Fox the rest of those DP World Tour players seem to be undervalued in the market probably because their lack of success that they’ve shown on the PJ tour I’m not
Saying that every matchup is going to present value with those names that they’re involved in it’s far from that answer that I’m giving but I did have an edge when directly attacking Billy horel inside of a head-to-head bet I didn’t have a golfer in my sheet who had a
Bigger mispricing than horel when I dove into to names with an entire return of stats I think his two made Cuts in the last three years for him at this tournament boosted up this price that we got a little bit and it looks fine on the surface but when you really dive
Into what he did during those made Cuts I’m not so sure that I necessarily trust the profile it came from a golfer who lost off the te and with his approach during all three of those starts I’m kind of under the belief that the heavy
Rain in the area is going to hurt his lack of distance and the poor proximity data that he brings to the mix which if that’s going to generate this fade appeal in one area and then this quality profile in Fox that is kind of what my model’s looking for and just as an
Interesting uh nugget to throw out there and we’ll move into Nick’s pick from this the second head-to-head for me that I was considering that I did not eventually I did not get to was Nick’s pick so I’ll let Nick talk about that a little bit but I also like where Nick’s at
There hey all right the matchup God signs off on my P I love that all right um the only concern I had is kind of picking on good form against good form that’s usually something I don’t like to do and in Stars against stars in the
Matchup space I don’t think this is a Stars against stars but it is good form against good form senson is striking the ball insanely well right now really what it came down to is just the pricing that I had in in my numbers I had senson like
Proper right around minus 130 minus 135 here and really like for me I’m I’m not really a Grio guy his long iron play is significantly worse than sens which is pretty much a strength of svenson’s game so I think these longer tracks here help him out a little bit more even though
Neither of them are bombers off the tea both very accurate but just looking at what Grio has done the last couple go rounds at these longer courses like obviously the centry he did not play very well there Tory Pines has kind of given problems in the past the memorial
Um also you know I guess a similar course in terms of length and accuracy needed off the tea and then the Arnold Palmer Invitational all those Grio has kind of struggled where sevenson has done just fine I think sevenson’s a safe sa cut maker here and Grio has that
Miscut Equity that we’re looking for in these matchups hopefully it’s just a two-day bet and uh yeah just the the 10 to 15 points value that I found there in the matchup Market I will take that every single time so Grio coming off a t7 in his last
Start at the Sony Open in Hawaii where you’re using your short irons and wedges all the time maybe his stock is a little bit too high and Nick’s going to take advantage of that here at the longest course on the PGA tour you also brought up the memorial where um
At Jack place which is the only other course along with Tory Pines South course which is over 7500 yards and has greens at 5,000 square feet on average or smaller so definitely some similarity there between those two courses so jumping into my best bet I gave this one
Out a couple weeks ago at the Sony Open in Hawaii where I bet 1.2 units on Stephen Jer minus 120 to finish in the top 55 is and he did that easily so we got a unit out of that this week I’m just going to bet a half unit on it so
To win a little bit less than that at minus 120 again not as confident in this one just cuz he’s got some rougher course history and there is a course rotation so there’s a little bit more uncertainty built in this week but Stephen jger on the PGA tour has made 19
Consecutive Cuts that’s fourth among everybody on the PGA tour he doesn’t really have a weakness in his game if there is one you might say it’s around the green play and that is going to be a point of emphasis this week but overall I think his game is well rounded enough
I think the field isn’t as deep as some other ones like last week perhaps and I think that he will make the cut again this week and if he’s going to make the cut I think there’s going to be a really good chance that he finishes in the top
54 so give me stepen jger minus 120 for another made cut because we got to mention his name in the podcast every single week but now that we’ve gone through all of our Best Bets Spencer why don’t you start us off with your course preview for the North and South courses
At Tory Pines we talked a lot last last week about how the American Express was going to be this three course rotation that was going to produce an onslaught of Birdie attempts just because of the pure putting nature of the complex I personally never thought there was some massive deviation between those
Properties they all generated birdies for who played quality golf like of course maybe you could Point toward the potential pitfalls at the PGA West Stadium Course just because of the water and the extensive bunkering that was there but with all that being said for this week when we move into this into
These two tracks I don’t believe that all rotational venues are going to be the same and and this is kind of what we get here and this split between the North and the South tracks at Tory Pines do present quite an interesting Outlook to consider so players are going to
Rotate between those two courses on Wednesday and Thursday all the golfers who make the cut go back to the much lengthier South for the final two rounds we’re talking about a nearly 7,700 yard course that’s going to play even longer than that distance because of the
Downpour of rain that the San Diego area has received to begin the week I will say that it might help to also ease the POA greens that have been known to be greeny and fast so there’s kind of a a positive end a negative to this rain uh
Although at the end of the day when I look at these courses the one thing that I continue to find is unlike last week where all the courses produce birdy looks and you’re going to kind of get the same feel in all the venues even though you only have 25% of your rounds
At the North I think the most impactful holes occur there in helping the decide the winner so the reason for that comes from a couple different things most iterations of the contest have been won between 13 and 15 under when you dive into the fact that the last five winners
Of this tournament have shot between four to nine under during their one-off chance when they do get to take on the more straightforward over 400 yards shorter North property it begins to highlight in my model the need to get off to a very quick start where scoring
Is possible seven holes at the North produce over a 20% birdi or better percentage that includes four par five setups that are going to generate significant Eagle rates you get this much better Tree Line setup that’s going to protect against win a slower bent grass surface versus its South
Counterpart that’s going to be played on the PO that I talked about a second ago you also get a lot more short to Mid irons in hand over the Redundant ask from outside of 200 plus that you’re going to get from the south so um I think that’s a very unique approach that
I took inside of my model for how I approached it with my Wagers when I get to my outright card in a little bit I only bet top 30 golfers in my model when it came to projected scoring on the north for that reason I did it mostly
With long shot Wagers further down the board we can talk about why that is uh in a couple minutes I do have one name that I want to get your guys’ opinion on when we do start talking outright bets in a sec in a second but I thought it’s
A really interesting tournament to talk about just because we don’t have this you know Scotty schler Rory mroy here you do have a lot of the the projected win Equity at the top of golfers that are sub 10 to1 that I think are too short I’m sure Nick can give you the
Answer of why Klay is too short now and he has his own reason behind it but um that’s just kind of my mentality doesn’t mean that those players can’t win but the prices are just shorter than I would ideally like I agree those prices are pretty
Short at the board so let’s jump into those in just a moment but you mentioned that the par five scoring on the North Course is going to be key the longest par five on the North Course is shorter than the shortest par five on the south course so going to need to take
Advantage of those four chances whenever a given player plays on the North Course oftentimes we’ll see somebody go seven eight under par on that course and then fail to make the cut or fail to play under par on the south course because it’s just such a different challenge but
You mentioned those bankr greens also going to come into play on the North Course Nick anything you’d like to add to our course preview before we jump into the outright Market no I think Spencer nailed it I’m lock loing step with him here so I’m I bet you our right
Card is going to be quite similar especially if he was looking at the same match up as I was too so let’s do it I I mean all right let’s see Nick I don’t have anybody less than like 400 to one I’m not sure anybody has any of that
Right side okay all right all right I have a different card but I’m it’s it’s rather long but not 400 to one stuff all right so now I’m really excited to hear what you got Spencer start us off okay so before I get to my outrights I want
To talk about one player this is the closest that I’ve come to making a bet at the top of the board and I’m going to see if either one of you either have a wager on this maybe you can convince me my models really liked them do either of
You have any thoughts on ludvig Oar at 22 to1 I was close what what pushed me away is just the debut ton at this course but it like yeah it fits him to a te I mean he is an elite ball Striker long off the te is
Going to hit Fairways long irons are fine f everything about it like I I was hoping for 25 to1 that’s the same answer that I gave yesterday inside of an article and that’s the unfortunate thing the the first time nature of this I think he’s going to win this tournament
At some point in his career it’s difficult to win a a course that does have a lot of rollover success over the years but with that being said really the only concern comes down to the fast Po in nature if it’s a little bit softer out there because of the rain that
Distance is going to really play for him so I I am extremely close I keep updating all the markets to see if he can get the 25 to one somewhere because that’s going to be the last ticket that I punch but I even think 22 to1 has value I I literally have met
25.4 to1 so yeah plus 2500 I would I would go at because my my numbers don’t increase or don’t include a hold percentage so there’d be value there in the in the market if we could find 25 to one I have a ticket on lud V Oar I all
Right really like the distance since I like that the approach play has been established as a strength of his gaining Strokes on approach in his last eight consecutive tournaments that goes back to the it goes back to late August and around the green play I think
Isn’t a weakness I don’t know that it’s a strength quite yet but it isn’t a glaring weakness for him and we actually haven’t seen him play on Polar greens I believe uh or at least anywhere with data so that is a bit of an unknown for me but hopefully with the R softening
Him up that helps out that helps him out um on the greens a little bit and we know that he can get hot with the Putter and given how he kind of ran away with the tournament at the RSM classic gained almost four and a half Strokes per round
I think he is I think the winner of this tournament is going to be someone near the top of the board and I want to take a chance with him given that there might be some un ttty because he hasn’t played before and I think I’m getting a bit of a quote
Unquote discount because like you guys said I agree that this is a course he’s absolutely tailor made to win at some point in his career and I don’t want to miss I don’t want the train to leave the station before I have a ticket well I I
Will update this I just looked at the market somebody out there just moved it to 25 to one so I will make that my official addition and I I’ll get into my outright card right now so we will say lud Vigo bear 25 to1 shop around to find
That price I other than that I only have one name that 85 to1 for me I did start with sahit the gala at 35 to1 you could have found better in the in the market if you got this early on Monday my model pushed him into the top five for projected scoring
At the North Course when taking that ceiling outcome from each golfer I think his erratic nature off the tea isn’t quite the detriment that we see at other PGA Tour venues and then the 26 spot increase in projected weighted T to Green production only furthered this
Narrative for me of why he has posted results of a fourth and 25th here during his two attempts kind of talked about this during The Fall season he got a weighted boost inside of my model for weighted proximity at the fortnet that gave him an 87 spot Improvement while we
Don’t have quite as large of an amount here the 56 spot disparity could be good enough for him to add a second title for him in the last handful of months um I think it was a good price for him with a skill set that fits these coures this is
Kind of where things get off the rail for me a little bit here I took Ro Robert McIntyre at 350 to1 I fell for this last week I’m going to do it again at a course that does feel better suited for his skill set McIntyre’s top 30 grades for weight of proximity when
Taking on both courses and a scrambling game that more or less for me kind of mirrored what I had statistically from minwu Lee presented a long shot long shot option with a high ceiling I thought it was interesting like the market loves and betters love Min woi this week I I
I was probably more inclined to bet that if it was in the 30s I think the softer conditions might hurt him a little bit still like him top 10 player in my model but I’m kind of trying to find that profile here at 350 to1 he doesn’t have
Quite as much distance but a great power five score I took Taylor pendrith at 125 to one pendrith burned the entire industry as one of the trendy Wagers at the American Express my model had him 51st for that contest to go along with a negative trajectory for upside I was
Kind of surprised to a missed a weekend since he had delivered four top 15 finishes during his five starts before last week but I think this is a natural buyback spot for a golfer with distance and quality long iron proximity I took Jonathan Vegas at 400 to one Vegas
Missed the cut on the number last week he was been solid at Tory Pines over the years even if you look at his first start of the year he only missed it by two six top 39 finishes in his previous nine attempts at this tournament that presented an intriguing return for a
Golfer who can hit Greens in regulation as consistently as anyone in the field and then for my last wager it really came down to one of three names of how I wanted to build this and now that I added Oar to the top I think the Hoy
Guard route is going to get pushed to the side and I’m not going to go that route my numbers really liked hoard this week um but it was hoard Bo hosler AE batia those were the three names that I was trying to figure out how to round
Out a card I went with OE at 90 to1 he experienced massive shifts in a positive direction for me when faced with a fast poest surface over his Baseline putting he did the same exact thing on similar green complexes that he’s going to see at the North track on Thursday the ball
Striking is always a leite for him so if the putter can be better than anticipated I think that raises the ceiling here for a 90 to1 golfer to where I’m kind of just trying to take shots down this board I I know that’s a very trendy route that people are taking
This week because of you know there’s been a 500 to One winner you had an amateur one you had a 200 to One winner I think that’s usually more so bets get pushed like in the wrong direction here but for whatever the reason is my model
Did seem to find Value because it had no value at the top of the board so kind of these names further down the board that have you know a quarter of a or a half of a percent of win equity for me that were at 400 to one was kind of the
Direction I was trying to go think they’re very small edges but that’s the upside that I’m looking for on a cheap route there I like it Nick I’m going to jump in here because I’ve got so much overlap with Spencer on the card yeah I’ve got
O I bet theala at the Sentry we don’t need to talk about what happened there I’ve got him again here I think that this is a course where which is unlike many on the PJ tour in that if you get to 15 under you got a really good chance of winning
Unlike last week where there was a prom for the first three rounds and the pins were by necessity in an easy very accessible spot on each green which I think is kind of an Abomination for a PJ Tour event um really only got one round
Of PJ Tour golf last week and that was on Sunday when they had pins in actual challenging actually challenging locations which is super key on a Pete die golf course but anyways this week I want somebody who can go low when scor conditions are tough I think the gala is
Someone who can do that he’s not necessarily a safe player but on a course like Tory Pines which is super long we’ve established that it’s the longest course on the PGA tour it’s not super treelined so his driving accuracy and his lack of driving accuracy and his
Strong short game or his lack of driving accuracy won’t be penalized he is long enough that he can kind of bomb and gouge this and if he does get into trouble he’s got a world class short game and his putter can also ignite at any moment so I like that he has
Multiple different paths to contending this week whether his driving accuracy is really good like it was at the Sentry but at the Sentry it’s almost impossible to miss Fairways he he said he was striping it really well off the te um so hopefully that continues news this week
We know he missed the cut at the Sony Open but very different track uh and I think that is why we’re getting a better number on him than someone like mini who I was intrigued by but with M Le 27 to1 and theala at 35 to1 I think theala is a
Better golfer right now and I think he’s a better fit for the course so I got him at 35 to1 we mentioned Oar at 20 to1 which I got him so maybe I’ll have to take a peek and find 25 to1 get a little bit more on him I also have an outright
On batia I think that he has become a much better putter than he was through last season and I don’t think that’s necessarily priced in and I love his upside as well and then I’m going back to my bread and butter with Taylor Moore 120 to1 his long iron
Numbers have always been solid that’s why we bet him outright at the V bar and his putter can also get really hot he hasn’t necessarily had as much success on poag greens but with this being his third time around the track I think he’ll have some success this week and
He’s just somebody who could light up the North Course and stay steady doesn’t really have a huge weakness in this game so at 120 to1 I’m going to take a nibble on Taylor Moore as well a little bit more aggressive outright card than I’ve had in the first couple weeks of the
Season but I do think that you’re gonna need to be a big time player and ball Striker to win this week so without further Ado Nick who you got on your outright card this week I’m also in on batia I got it at 100 to one and that is
Out there in the market depending on what state you’re in I fell for sunjay 22 to1 um well my numbers I have him at 20 flat so at the top of the board he and oar were also my biggest edges so I will go find the 25 to1 and follow on
Oar I took Daniel burger at 80 to1 it looks like that is now down to 65 and 70 to1 I still think that’s kind of a a trap but I’m just gonna buy in that he’s ready to go I mean the guy is I think he’s from Jupiter Florida right so he
Plays like with all the top talent in the world all off season I think that he was ready to go I think it’s a great track for him to kind of make his debut at or his comeback at last week everything for me numbers wise distance accuracy it was like Daniel Burger of
Old so I’ll go back to him great course history here I did take a shot on Davis Thompson 150 to one and Austin ekro 175 to one I think ekro is probably burning money trying to take him to win this tournament he’s probably more of a a cut
Making type of guy and if it’s going to be rainy throughout the week and make this course a little softer I think the distance will hurt him a little bit he’s got a soft spot in my hard after what he did this weekend in the DFS side of
Things um and then one guy I got room for one more like 70 to 80 to one range guy are you guys okay with Hideki matuyama I I I don’t I don’t know I I don’t know I mean the the long-term statistical data that I’m running loves
Him it loves him every single week um I mean he’s great on these coures verus that provid he was in worst form coming into this tournament last year and still managed to score I think he had one really bad round that kind of took him out of contention but he’s he’s
Good here I agree with that I I guess I just worry about his ability to actually win the contest like to me he feels like a better top 10 BET like he hasn’t been in contention in so long it’s so hard for me to believe that he would get
Himself into contention and then just win a golf tournament at of course that is difficult like I I would rather bet him top 10 which is a bet that I highly consider this week because he’s one of those golfers with the massive positive trajectory for me for upside with the floor that’s moving
In the wrong direction and uh those are usually the golfers that I like to take a chance on if I do find a top 10 number that makes sense I didn’t find a price that I necessarily liked on it but um I guess I just worry about his win Equity like it felt
Like a fair price I guess kind of like that’s kind of where I feel like he should be right now I for some reason think that Matsuyama is a lot older than he is he’s only 31 years old but it seems like he’s been around forever he
Does look old too his back’s always hurting him also like an old guy so I’m with you there that’s fair that’s true but I I think a healthy Hideki and which I believe we think he’s healthy right now is somebody at 70 to1 I don’t think
It’s a Bad Bet given that he has one of the like sahala Elite short games he’s not as long as I’d like him to be so the rain doesn’t help him and the putter is a big if as usual but you do get one
Round on on B grass green so that if he takes a vage there early in the week maybe we find a live chance to bet him this week I think that’s how I might do it but at 75 to1 I’m only seeing him at 50 to one so this isn’t something I
Considered it as heavily uh and given the makeup of my card this week being a little bit more aggressive but I don’t hate that bet at all I think you do a lot worse so uh I won’t push back on that one for keki um anybody else that
You guys think has a chance to win this week that you haven’t been on or you’re considering no for me it was probably just hoard as I I sort of mentioned him during the outright discussion one of the main reasons why I didn’t go that route is just because he’s starting on
The south course thought at the 50 55 the one numbers that you could find depending like that that might be an inter tournament sort of wager if you want to get there if he starts hot on Wednesday you could always try to add him live there’s also the potential to
Add him on Wednesday night after the round is over as he heads to the easier North venue um that’s really and maybe B hostler if you want to go down that route with it but I I had reasons that I pushed myself against hosler at the end of the
Day I think that all makes sense I was considering Taylor Montgomery just CU I think there might be a real transformation going on with his approach play only got two tracked rounds from him last week but he did gain Strokes on approach which for him is an accomplishment but I think I’m
Going to lay low with him for a week or two on on this kind of golf course I think that long iron approach play is something that really needs to be established I’m not quite there yet with him maybe I’ll sprinkle a top 20 or something like that um also want to bet
Some rookies but I don’t think this is the course to do it unless they have a ton of Firepower and have the short game and some of the guys I was looking at don’t have um that combination quite yet at least established we don’t have much
Day to go off of them but fellas let’s jump into the rest of the card Spencer I’ll get it started with you any other plays besides your matchup and the outrights it’s kind of a similar mental it of there’s a lot of deep Long Shots on my card in the outright Market
There’s a lot of deep Long Shot Wagers that I had inside the placement market for me so I I have a handful of bets this week the first one I’ll at least mention on the show I’m as of an hour ago the BET was still active in live I I
Don’t know if it’s going to be by the time that this has aired or even by the time that we’re recording I haven’t checked in about an hour or so but there was a will zalatoris number out there for a top 40 at plus 200 the rest of the
Market had had that in like the minus 135 to minus 150 range uh we talked about that in the Roto ball or Discord chat to where I mean that’s been hammered away and you obviously run the risk when you do things like that that you can get Limited at some of these
Books and I I don’t know if I necessarily trust zalot Taurus’s floor quite enough in this spot to take that risk but I’m always a believer that when you look at matchups and you look at things of this nature I’m always going to take the edges that I have at the end
Of the day and whatever a book decides to do is what a book is going to do at at the end of it so I I think there’s an edge there if you can shop around and still find that number I don’t think it’s as large as the public perception
Is with it because I do think that there’s the volatility that’s coming into play but it’s at least something that I wanted to mention on this show just in case it’s still sitting around uh I took Robert McIntyre for a top 10 at plus 2000 once again Boomer bus
Profile I’m gonna use last week’s Mis cut to our advantage and shoot for the moon when it comes to his upside his par five scoring long iron play in the scrambling Acumen that I talked about for why I bet him as an outright is going to play well this week I believe
And all that provided a profile for a golfer that landed inside the top 20 for projected scoring at the North Course uh maybe that last part would have made him a better top 20 bet at 9 to1 because we are really pushing the envelope here at
20 to1 but there wasn’t a golfer for me this week who had as high of a ceiling and as low of a floor to me that typically means to play it more aggressively and lower your exposure that was 0.10 units to win two for the sake of transparency here it took Taylor
Pendrith for a top 20 at plus 450 four top 15 finishes for pendrith in his last six starts the weighted proximity increased over his Baseline projection and then the weighted Strokes gain T to Green Return did the same providing the fifth most significant shift inside of
My model uh the other four zores who I just mentioned Robert McIntyre who I have all the bets on Sam Ryder Nicks boy dve Davis Thompson I think that that’s why he’s an intriguing bet this week in different uh iterations of this Market I couldn’t figure out where I wanted to
Land on him but I I think he’s a Savvy sharp play this week I took Joseph bramlet top 20 at plus 750 that’s going to pay ties in full I don’t love the form that he’s bringing to the event this week but bramlet has two top 20 finishes at this tournament during the
Past three years a lot of that stems from the driving distance and long iron proximity that he does possess it’s easy to understand he’s made all four cuts at the event since 2022 and long courses have always given him the best upside that he possesses and then to round this
Out I’m going to bet Jonathan Vegas top 20 at plus 900 uh if you add all those Wagers together outside of the zalot Taurus bet that I talked about it’s 0.55 units like I don’t expect all these bets to hit I’d be very happy if one of them
Hit but this to me is the way to get cheap exposure to this tournament try to take some long shot options inside this top 10 and 20 Market Vegas is just starting to show the signs that I talked about of recovery from the poor 2023 that plagued him by injury um at his
Best he was a golfer who generated six top 40 finishes at Tory Pines in nine attempts from 2015 to 2023 so I’m going to bet on that long-term profile and then hope the ball striking shows up again for a venue that he has historically loved over the years so I
Might be a nice byow spot for Jonathan Vegas I like those pick Spencer I like getting aggressive with the top 20 plays on guys whom many aren’t thinking about in the outright market and I like those numbers you got too I think I’m going to tell you on the Joseph bramlet one I’ve
Also got a Kevin Yu four to one uh for top 20 where ties are paid in full so I like his upside as well um I don’t want to I I told you that I thought somebody at 30ish to one or shorter is going to
Win this week so I like that I can get Kevin Y in contention and maybe get a double dip um Nick any other plays you got on your card this week yeah uh real quick I love the pendrith play that was something I was twiddling my thumbs on
Especially after missing the cut last week I think that we get a lot more value on the price there but um one of these shots that I took again I don’t really trust my placement Market bets this time of the year I think I want more data especially on guys like this
But max giserman top or gracer top 40 at plus 320 he is a bomber off the tea he’s actually pretty accurate too so I love the small amount of ball striking that I was able to see on PJ Tour live last week with him it’s a guy that I’ve been
Keeping my eye on in addition to MC Meisner and obviously Nick donop last week who put on an absolute show so I’m going to go back to one of the rookies Max gracer top 40 at plus 320 I’m also going to tail the pendrith
Uh top 20 as well I really like that one um Mac Meer also someone I’m watching out for not necessarily going to bet him this week but I’m very intrigued I know that had one one yday on 54o watch I think he tweeted y he 54 watch I think
He birdied five straight and then kind of disappeared after that he missed a cut didn’t he yeah that’s yeah ridiculous but no good player I think it’s a good course for him here too especially with how he’s a ball Striker and he could bombit I think uh that’s
You got to keep an eye out for wanted to help in and give a reminder that the links and locks podcast is presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary they believe that every sport should be epic every touchdown every game every point every play from the moments that are legendary
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Other plays on the card or are we good to hop into a quick rapid fire segment I’m going to throw two out every single time I’ve done this the first round leader has almost won and not gotten across the finish line and I’m going to give two first round leader play here um
Right you can find this on bet 365 I think it’s an interesting Market this week for anybody who’s offering uh for both courses into one so you get both every single player in the field in this market and it’s whoever is going to be the low scorer I’m going to attack the
North Course for all the reasons that we’ve talked about that’s historically where the players can produce the most boom potential of anywhere this week and and I wouldn’t be shocked with some of the soft conditions that we have on Wednesday if somebody’s not able to
Shoot a 63 you know in that range to to Really Propel themselves up the leaderboard I took bohawk hosler at 50 to1 that’s kind of where I decideed to get my exposure to him and then I took Ryan Fox at 60 to1 I like it the first round leader is
Absolutely going to come from the North Course barring some kind of unforeseen heater and both those guys can get hot in bunches and hosler a guy who grew up in the LA area so he also is going to be very familiar with the PO surfaces and I
Think with it being a little bit shorter course he’s somebody who take advantage so I think it’s a sharp play all right let’s jump into rapid fire um we haven’t touched too much on the players at the top of the board so looking in the enhanced win Market at that 365 Xander
Shafley is n and a half to one Patrick Klay is 11 to1 defending Champion Max H is 12 to1 and Colin morawa is 12 to1 gentlemen if I give you a free bet on any of those four players starting with you Nick which one would you take Xander I will give the same
Answer that’s a layup that’s a layup it’s always Zander for me that’s that’s my reasoning yeah I I mean that was that was like the most certain thing that Nick was going to give the Xander answer there I I think for me you know Xander’s
One of those golfers if you look at what he has done at Tory Pines there’s a lot of pressure on him when he started early in his career being a local from the area and he didn’t necessarily produced the results that you were hoping to see
And recently if you look at the last three iterations of what we’ve gotten him second 34th 13th we’re starting to see some of that upside come in the mix the current form I mean he’s made 30 I think it’s 36 consecutive Cuts 36 or 37 consecutive cuts on the uh PGA tour at
This point the the lack of upside is always the concern because he seems to have one round where everything falls apart on him and he doesn’t end up winning it winning the title but I actually think he’s the deserving favorite in this field like there’s win Equity concerns for me with every single
Player that’s probably not named Max hom from this section like morawa has been a little bit Boomer bus for me we I I was I think you had him too Roberto right at the Zozo yes it did yeah so we both had him at the Zozo we kind of like that was the
One time I’ve bet morawa in my entire career of betting it seems like but this is a good course for him like the proximity numbers are going to look great I always worry a little bit about the around the green game and if it’s wetter conditions I think it hurts him a
Little bit klay’s that Boomer bus commodity that I don’t really know what to expect expect at this point but that number is just far too short like the form doesn’t look good enough for a price tag that we’re getting and I’m going to be out on him for that reason I
Mean I’m out on all these prices of where they’re at but I think Xander possesses the actual best upside to win this contest if one of these four are going to yeah I think Colin Mory Kawa contains the highest floor but I don’t know how high the ceiling is and the short game
And putting are a question mark But and if he was a little bit longer off the te I think it would be perfect but I have to agree with you guys that chafl makes a lot of sense at nine to one but not going to bet him looking into the next
Range we have Oar whom we all touched on Nick has suj so we’ll jump past him Tony fenale Spencer I think you might have bet him this at this tournament last year he’s 27 to1 along with your boy Jason day and also the hot new commodity on the market
Minwu Lee 27 to1 we’ll throw Keegan Bradley in there at 30 to1 as well so if I give you a ticket on one of those four guys for free which one would you take Spencer I I have to be honest RTO so I started producing content at this tournament in 2017 or
2018 and I have bet F out in a written article every single year throughout that entire run this is the first year I do not have a Tony fenal ticket so if he wins this contest the one year don’t have exposure to him I I always like in
The first article I wrote my whole thing was feno at some point in his career will win the Farmers Insurance open he will win at Tory Pines and we haven’t gotten that yet the course history’s been magn magnificent like even if you just look at we’ll look at the last five
Years with it it’s four top 13 finishes that 2022 Miss cut the noteworthy thing there is it seemed like everybody missed the cut um like every single player that has good course history missed it that year so I I kind of threw that out when model
But I’m a little bit afraid that this is the week that fale finally puts the putter together he showed a little bit of that on the weekend to where he stormed up the leaderboard from barely making the cut and ends up finishing uh in the top 25 of the American Express
But uh it’s gonna be fale for me Echo no Jason day wow they would be my second choice for whatever that’s worth I like Jason day here too but I think Tony Fen now it’s it’s coming around every part of his game is trending in the right direction here and
I think the top of the board I I think he deserves to be right there at the top of the board I just can’t get around on the Potter with him but I really like Jason day I know that where a lot of whereas a lot of people don’t like putting on poet
Jason day can do it exceptionally well he’s one of the people who I think has upside whom I wanted in that 35 to1 range and just missed um I also really like Keegan Bradley I think that he is a cheaper Colin morawa in that I think his
Approach play is really solid it’s going to give him a really high floor this week I bet him and he finished second the last time I bet him so I don’t necessarily want to catch the falling knife here when I bet him at 55 to1 in a
A worse field and now he’s 27 to1 with all this Elite Talent up the board I just don’t love that um if you want to do a oneandone play I think he’s somebody who whom you could consider um um I’m kind of between him Oar and a couple other guys right now for
This week but um I like those two and mimu Lee I think is interesting uh we don’t have as much data on him with him only playing I think 13 14 PJ tour events last last year but he has everything in the bag and I think this could be a course where
He separates she three four under par a day and is right there in contention so he’s those these are all guys whom I consider betting live if the opportunity arises with them playing steady golf on the first day of the South course or making a move on Thursday or sorry
Wednesday because the tournament starts on Wednesday at the uh North Course as well jumping into the next tier of guys we’ve got Eric Cole at 37 to1 he has just been the model of consistency on the PGA tour recently outside of Scotty Sheffer SE stas 45 to1 along with Harris
English if I gave you guys a ticket on one of those three guys English straa or Cole Nick which one would you take oh man my numbers really like straa I think that’s probably where I’d go I worry about the around the green give me Harris English
Spencer I’ll say Eric Cole I mean Eric Cole has just been so consistent for the last handful of months it’s hard to win a professional golf tournament and sometimes it comes down to luck just like the right thing breaking your way and it’s hard to say
In a lot of these events he’s been super close to actually winning them like his best chance was what at the I guess RSM when he went head-to-head with Oar there and couldn’t get the job done and a lot of these other things have just been
Steady outputs but um I think at some point if Cole continues this just like the nature of the game is if you’re up there in the top 10 this many times you have to win a golf tournament at some point yeah I think the rain hurts his chances
Of winning but he could also go low at the North Course and then just hang around so I don’t love the course fit for him very much this week but I think he is Unstoppable at this point so very intrigued I would probably go with among
These three sep straa because I think he has the highest ceiling and I don’t like that Harris English has been super Reliant upon his putter in the last few weeks hasn’t really been standing out on approach but he did finish third here at the 2021 US Open so
It could happen um we’ll do one last one jumping down into the 50 60 to1 range we touched on Matsuyama so we touched on hoard Z torus is 55 to one Adrien [ __ ] also 55 to1 Shane Lowry whom Spencer successfully faded last week is 60 to1
And Justin Rose is 65 to One spencer I’ll come back to you among those four zat taus Moran Lowry and Rose if you got a free ticket on one of them which one would you take I would say Adrien Moran that’s I don’t think the answer anybody would expect me to give and
Because I don’t run a bunch of DP World Tour stats inside of my sheep but there was a lot that I liked about him like I don’t he hasn’t been great when he has come to America and played golf tournaments inside of this country and that’s probably like the one concern but
All sharp markets really like him a favorite specifically against a handful of those names that you mentioned he’s inside of the top 25 of every single way I ran my model and and and I do think that there’s something to be said about whether you’re playing like DFS contests
Out there that he may be a trendy contrarian pick that nobody’s going to really get to because they think the price is too high so like I think he’s a player who’s worth taking a chance on for some of these upside markets Nick how about you can I put
Daniel Burger in consideration in that price range instead I’ll allow it all right Daniel Burger I was going to go with Moran Spencer just talked about it it’s more the DFS side of me that’s interested in Moran but I will go with Daniel Burger Moran is somebody who I’m very
Intrigued by he got his card by being on top 10 in the DP World Tour I believe and last week was second to Rory melroy in Dubai problem is he’s got to go from Dubai to San Diego so that puts a little bit of uncertainty involved that adds a
Little bit of uncertainty but looking at his recent results so far since the beginning of December T8 in Australia T10 in Dubai and then two solo second in Dubai last week as well so playing some really solid golf he’s long off the T been really solid on approach gain
Strokes on approach in each of his last eight track tournaments made the cut in his last in every tournament going back all the way since the Scottish open so he’s played some really solid golf t23 in the open in his last competition against PGA Tour um against PGA Tour
Players so I think he could be a sneaky top 20ish finish this week and if you want to get different DFS I think that’s a great way to go about it um gentlemen any other players you wanted to touch on before we get out of here this
Week I mean I guess the one player that I’ll just mention I don’t have any exposure to him um he’s very popular though I feel like it’s a name that we should at least talk about like for five seconds Luke list won this tournament in 2022 gonna be very popular in different
Sectors of the market I think he’s better probably as like a DFS play for for safety in cash games than anything else um couldn’t really figure out where I wanted to get them but the safety numbers in my model really liked him impr a little bit I think he could
Be a sneaky play yeah I like the improved short game we’re seeing him year over year here that’s probably the last player I was trying to figure out how I could get a matchup with him I I haven’t found anything yet maybe that’s something from an inter tournament
Perspective that we can get to for one of these rounds if if he pops up against a player that I have a fade potential on but I think as of this moment I mean List the problem is is the market and the books know that list is getting
Backed and I don’t think you’re necessarily finding the value where things are currently at so I’ll keep an eye to see if there’s a mistake out there but he was at least the one name for me that I was trying to figure out a
Way how can I fit him on to my card six straight made cuts for him at this event and uh three state three straight top 25s as well including that win in 2022 where he defeated will zures when I had a ticket on zures so um fellas this was
A lot of fun Spencer or actually guys going into one and done I mentioned I’m probably gonna be on Oar looking at Keegan Bradley uh [ __ ] also could be an intriguing pivot if I want to save o for later with which I’m very strongly considering uh just because there’s not
Enough money this week in the pool necessarily for me to get super excited about using Oar who are you guys considering in one and done this week I have not made a decision and and I thought I had made a decision last week and I talked about SEIU Kim and
Tony feno and all the R I ended up taking Sun JM which ironically enough while he was the most popular pick in all contests in our specific Action Network contest I was the only one that had him I opened that up and I’m like well this could be the ideal spot here
That I got sunjay to myself and it just never really came quite to fruition with it he kind of midd throughout the first you know two days and then made a run on Saturday and then went backwards on Sunday I don’t know where I’m going
Right now if you put my feet to the fire and tried to make me give a decision I would say maybe sahit the gala I think that’s also going to be very popular so just for reference Spencer had Sun JM I had Taylor Montgomery Nick
Had one of the worst beats in one and done because he didn’t even need to win the tournament to get the full pot uh with Sam Burns and burns finished with a double double uh in California good on the basketball court good at In-N-Out bad on the golf course you don’t want a
Double double there Nick How You Gonna bounce back this one I think I’m gonna be solo on Tony feno that would be the other route and now that you’re taking feno I probably won’t because I have to make up ground but feno would probably be the one B for
Me I I kind of want to save Oar which is what’s so tough like I don’t know if I want to burn him at a tournament if it goes south if for some reason he does struggle on the POA greens um I think fenal is an interesting secondary option
There I’m with Roberto I just think it’s 30 to one or shorter golfer that wins here and I don’t think fow will have high ownership in one it done so I’m going to go with him I think Oar again it’s the debut time thing that scares me
A little bit so I’m going to wait for him and I’m going with feno I know we can get it done here everything’s trending it’s time Jason day that’s the third name I want to throw out there I think day has legitimate consideration here okay we know he has great course
History he’s won here before Spencer where can we find your work the rest of this week a little bit different with the tournament starting on Wednesday yeah so you can find me over on Twitter at Toff Sports you can get my model over at Roto baller to get any of the stats
That I talked about here I as soon as we get off from here I guess Nick and I will be recording better golf podcast uh from there I will be writing my Action Network article to dive into where some of the sharp movements have occurred over the past 24 hours in the
Outright Market we’ll see if there’s any value to be found in the space there so that will come out on Tuesday night and then just as a standard thing everything’s going to be pushed up a day for me I’ll have all my Action Network articles uh from an inter tournament
Perspective that we talk about matchups it was a quality week there last week uh 4 in one overall in head-to-head bets so going to try to keep that rolling all right stay hot Spencer Nick where can we find your work this week uh one last round of NFL DFS over
At wind daily Sports and then better golf pod on Twitter with Spencer to break down all things DFS and yeah um hopefully I don’t have a can’t lay Burns Sunday meltdown otherwise it would have been a very very very fun show to talk about uh this week but still good week
Thanks to Nick Dunlap so yeah I did mention I owe my beer when he turns 21 so Nick I’m sure you’re listening buddy uh next to de I got you we’ll we’ll sync up at a local Tavern before a round and uh have at it big shout out to Nick Dunlap first
PGA Tour winner as an amateur since 1991 when Phil Mickelson did it so something that nobody saw coming from the outright perspective n um just ridiculous and what an accomplishment what a finish as well uh hanging tough with Sam Burns those last three holes you can find me
On Twitter at Roberto 8213 and you can find all of our golf content on the action Network app website um tell a friend tell an enemy about the website the app and the podcast of course and you can find all of the sports betting content that you want on the Action
Network app whether it’s NFL this weekend where our guys have been super hot um the NFL guys have been super hot Sean kerer among others and then NBA is in season Joe deair has been killing it with his props so be sure to tune in to all of the Action Network content
Because they have been on a heater over the last few weeks as well as the playoffs are coming to a close here in the NFL season just more time for us to focus on golf betting once again thanks for tuning into our show want to give a
Big shout out to everybody who makes this show possible starting off with you the listeners thanks uh for your continued support and there’s I we can do better for you hit us up uh I want to thank our producers Noah neher and Matt Mitchell and thank give a big thanks to
Everybody for tuning in this week to our Farmers Insurance open preview
