Farmers Insurance Open + Ras Al Khaimah Championship 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast

Episode 289 – Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf, Paul Williams @GolfBetting and Barry O’Hanrahan @AGoodTalkGolf discuss their selections for this week’s Farmers Insurance Open (starts Wednesday) and Ras Al Khaimah Championship.
#farmersinsuranceopen #TorreyPinesGolfCourse #pgatour #RAKChampionship

We talk 2024 Golf Betting System Majors Competition sponsored by bet365 – entry details and comp rules are here: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/golf-majors-competition-2024-rules/

Farmers Insurance Open + Ras Al Khaimah Championship 2024 – Golf Betting System Podcast
By Steve Bamford

SHOW INDEX
00:30 Intro
01:44 Listener Reviews
03:11 bet365 Sponsored 2024 Majors Competition
04:17 Last Week
11:53 Farmers Insurance Open Start
46:49 Ras Al Khaimah Championship Start

Golf Betting System Website: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/

Steve’s Farmers Insurance Open Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/pga-tour-tips/farmers-insurance-open-tips-2024/

Farmers Insurance Open Strokes Gained Rankings: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/farmers-sg-analysis-2024/

Farmers Insurance Open Form Stats: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/farmers-combi-stats-2024/

Paul’s Ras Al Khaimah Championship Betting Preview: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/ras-al-khaimah-championship-tips-2024/

Ras Al Khaimah Championship Strokes Gained Rankings: https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/rak-sg-analysis-2024/

Ras Al Khaimah Championship Form Stats:
https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/rak-combi-stats-2024/

Steve Bamford X: @Bamfordgolf
Paul Williams X: @GolfBetting
Barry O’Hanrahan X: @AGoodTalkGolf

Golf Betting System Podcast:
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This podcast is for listeners of 18 and above. Please be Gambleaware, you can visit BeGambleAware.org for more information and of course please bet responsibly.

If you like betting on golf but everyone that you back Miss is the cut get some experts Involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system podcast greetings and welcome to the golf betting system podcast it’s episode 289 this is our 2024 Farmers Insurance open and Ras Alima Championship bets pod

Barry oan rahan and Paul Williams join me Steve banford to discuss our selection for this week’s PGA and DP well to action good morning Jens morning guys morning guys please subscribe to this podcast as you drive the popularity of the show this podcast is for listeners of 18 and

Above please be gware you can visit begambleaware.org for more info and of course please be responsibly visit our world famous golf betting system website where we have in-depth betting previews for both events we’ve got Strokes gained ranking for uh rankings for both course form stats combined with current form

Stats plus of course our predictor models all of that content completely free of charge with no pay wall we are on X Barry is at a good talk golf Paul is at golf betting I am at Bamford golf subscribe to the Steve Bamford golf YouTube channel where this podcast is

Available along with my weekly golf B show we are so close to 4,000 Subs it’s unbelievable so uh give it a check right now you guys as listeners power this podcast so we need your five star reviews on Apple podcast as ever for those of you who leave a review I will

Read them out the star of a future show leave your name and where you are in the review this review is entitled love the show and to be fair he’s followed my instructions completely correctly here guys listen to this hello I’m Ramsey and I’m from Edinburgh that’s what we like

To hear love the show and always love the stats shame I still can’t pick a winner with all of the info though that is from Ramsey in Edinburgh thank you Ramsey for your five star review to be fair I think there’s a few of us in the golf betting Twitter sphere

At the moment that are struggling to pick a winner so you’re not alone Ramsey no no thank thanks Ramsey yeah it’s it’s been a tricky start to the uh to the calendar year isn’t it both sides of the Atlantic so far so we’ll put it right

This week boys I got a good feeling about it the no winners Club turns it around we have we have no backlog on review so again I’ll say like I did last week if you send us a five-star review on Apple you will most likely have your review read out at the

Start of next week’s show Paul let’s mention again for new listeners the 2024 Majors competition if you will 30 seconds on that please yeah so um very simple we want four names four different names one for the Masters one for the uspga championship one for the US Open

One for the Open Championship um tell us who you think is going to win each of those those four major championships get them entered to us via Twitter via X I’ll get there eventually I’ll start calling X via X via Facebook there’s a thread that’s active on Facebook via

Email um and let us know who you’re going to who you think is going to win we’re then Cate a little leader board and allocate some prizes cash prizes at the end of the uh Open Championship to our three winners 150 to the winner 75 to the second place £25 or currency

Equivalent to the third place finisher Steve will undoubtedly add the uh rules and terms and entry requirements link to the podcast description I was thinking about starting my Master’s um selection with Nick Dunlap what you think yeah he’s in now I guess his name first three first three weeks on

The p J tour chaps 150 to1 Chris Kirk 400 to1 Grayson Murray that was particularly painful clearly for both Barry and myself we had the other two in the playoff 300 to one which casting your mind back to an AM 300 to1 was a pretty short price really on Nick Dunlap

Who wins the American Express last week amazing amazing stuff well and I think Twitter was blowing up on Saturday as he was just like pulling five six shots clear well yeah and then I think everyone would have expected him to go backwards and you know there was a blip

Wasn’t there on his front nine but to to then ease himself back away and and keep himself in front yeah he had a little bit of uh little bit of assistance there from Sam Burns right at the end but to to convert that was that the

First amateur since 91 did I read it’s yeah Phil yeah so you know Lefty back in 91 was the last am to do that it’s mightily impressive and you’d think he’s going to go and turn pro now so he can actually Bank some of these dollars if he does it

Again well I read that the cash that he should have earned went to the people directly below so in effect Christian Baden hoot took the 1, 512,000 first prize yep for second yeah it does you remember when um remember when Shane Larry won the Irish open I think it was

It robt Robert Rock who was second yeah from memory took theot so yeah Robert Rock took the lot Larry didn’t earn a penny out of that but um yeah you know it’s a stepping stone isn’t it these guys who are more than capable and will undoubtedly come back and earn their

Money further down the line but uh not the week they actually get over the line for the first time do you think the think the madest thing of all is that if he turns Pro now they won’t naturally you forfeit the money because you were amateur at the time but they won’t give

Him the FedEx points that he would have earned if he was pro at the time you know just to just to just to help correct their system then there’s no doubt he’s I think he’s pulled out of the farmers this week to kind of just take stock

Have a celebration seems like a pretty rational good decision um he’ll probably get loads of invites anyway to to kind of counteract that system but it just seems so messed up like a another hurdle to get over to try to get on to tour to

To kind of get your status up on tour it’s just so difficult to get up there does he not I you you may may might not know this Steve does he not get a card for having won the tournament I think yeah I wouldn’t want to I wouldn’t

Want to State something that was untrue and Rob Bolton the the Oracle on X hasn’t actually clarified the situation does well it’s it’s been so long since the last one I expect uh the rules aren’t there to be uh to be studied and clarified and and then one

Thing Rob did qu clarify just to jump subjects the reason Justin Thomas pulled out of the Farmers Insurance open was that he’s now jumped into the world’s top 25 which gives him a invite for the Pebble Beach signature event next week anyway but yeah I don’t know um he

All I Rob has said that he he will add him to the rookie listings um when or if he turns Pro so I can’t I can’t believe though that you would win a tournament as an amateur and you wouldn’t at least be given your 2-year exemp ion Once you turn

Pro that would seem super super harsh if he and if he turns Pro doesn’t he does he lose any invites he gets to the the majors now from this it’s so it’s so weird PE as yes because a lot of them are predicated on being um amateur at the

Day date of the major championship so so that he would still be a to play the Masters though because clearly he’s won a pj2 yeah yeah it’s too confusing for early on a Tuesday morning anyway it is inde Barry but anyway Christian Baden Hoots are a far richer man this morning yeah

He’s bagged a dollar so yeah it goes from one it goes from one extreme to the other though doesn’t it so you’ve got you’ve got Nick Dunlap winning that the first amateur since 1991 and then of course you go over to dubar which was a decent field some very very strong players in

There uh of course Tommy trell you had Brian Haron you had cam young it was a it was a strong field with the Hoy guards and uh you woke up Saturday and you’re scrolling down the leaderboard and you’re not seeing Rory maroy three-time winner there

And and then all of a sudden you just the birdie bar the birdie barrage came didn’t it on Saturday what was what price was he in play in running well did you see I I saw 33s at the start of Saturday i’ I’ve seen people quoting 50 which would seem

Reasonable um perhaps the were some bookies out there offering 50 to one but but Rory Rory was 10 back I watched quite a lot of it on Friday um and of course Rory was in the um in the coverage and he was teetering on the

Edge of missing the cut if that you know his final few holes would have gone a right he would have missed the cut he makes the cut 63 on Saturday and um and to be fair no one really gave him a scare on Sunday so he could kind of kind

Of Coast home on the back nine if someone had put a run in if Adrian [ __ ] or Cam young had put the kind of run in on the back nine that is possible around that course with the uh the three par fives and the the short Par Four then um

Could have put him under some severe pressure but um but it didn’t happen he he just managed to hold on cam young again great opportunity wasn’t there to for him to to get a win and um from the position he was in a halfway it was he’ll be sorely disappointed not to have

Converted that and um I was on [ __ ] you were on Mor as well Steve and um disappointing that those little mistakes that he made during the course of well the course of Sunday but also the course of the the four days um you know all manifested to him just finishing a shot

Shy and on another week he could have walked away with that by three or four clear shots I think just didn’t quite happen three weeks three very close calls for for the podcast very close calls we’ll put it right this week maybe that means that this week’s the

Week let’s start shall we should we should we talk about around the Farmers Insurance open I know that a lot of golf punters and a lot of just golf viewers in general see this really is the start of their calendar year of golf throughout especially through to the

Through to the Masters that you know where inevitably everything starts to ramp up the amount of interest in golf gets bigger and bigger week on week in week out as we try and work out who’s who are those players that are going to give us our best chance of a victory at

Uh at the Augusta National we’re playing Tory Pines of course a classical US Open hosting golf course so you know this is this is proper golf I can assure listeners you will not I repeat not see 29 under winning this week around Tor P Tory Pine South it’s not going to

Happen cracking golf course it’s the longest on the PGA tour just the mere matter of 7,765 yards at sea level that’ll be long yep and just to add insult to injury there’s been a little bit of rain in the area and they are quoting rough that is

Longer than previous years is 4 Ines of rough on both the South course and don’t forget this is play play over two so they play uh round one round two you get a go on the south course you also get a go on the North Course the North Course is

Um it’s a Tom wisoff redesign that’s the course where if you can get something like a a minimum 68 it’s a par 72 a minimum 68 67 or lower you’re building up the scores on your on the leaderboard that you might be at to frit away the odd bogey or two

That you’re inevitably going to get on the south course so yeah good tournament decent field and it’s not even a signature event this year an elevated event rather so um it’s a it’s a cracking field let’s get into that in terms of best book maker for the 2024 Farmers Insurance

Open we’re highlighting bet 365 who has ever have their each way extra Market available which gives you the option to increase or de decrease the number of places when you are betting pre-event on the farmers now for the very first time this week each way extra are offering eight places 10 or

Even 12 places all out of 50 odds the place on both the farmers and pools tournament this week on the DP world toour the RAS alimer Championship so that’s a new completely new um strategy for for bet 365 now as we record the Pod they are offering 10 places each way and extended

Market best odds on players such as Sun Jim he’s 18 to1 with bet 365 he’s only 14 to1 with Sky bet Jason day 20 to1 Justin Rose 40 to1 he’s won here in the past he’s only 33 to1 with Sky bet or how about friend of the podcast Emiliano

Grio he’s 70 to1 10 places each way with bet 365 by their each way extra Market Patty power have him up at 66 to1 with only eight places available this is what we say shop about have these accounts available if you’re 18 plus and do not

Have a bet 365 Sports account you can find details of their current bet10 get £30 in free bets new customer promotion plus a link through to that very offer with teas and seas in the podcast description don’t forget to use the bonus code Barry what is the bonus

Code Paul what’s the bonus bonus code you just just thrown Barry under the bus I just thought I’d mix things up this week what’s the bonus code chaps bonus code is Sport 30 SP o rt3 interesting actually isn’t it because um historically the hway extra

Has been a seventh of the odds for the 10 places and a ninth of the odds for the 12 places so for them to move to a fifth of the odds this week on both is um a big aggressive move from 365 so so yeah do check the prices out before you

Place your bet because you might find a better option there um for sure that’s a yeah it’s a huge step forward for bet 36i so let’s hope that continues certainly worth checking out so sport 30 bonus code for that particular new customer offer right okay I’m not going to mention their

Boost this week because they’ve actually boosted Max homer which I don’t like really because uh he’s my he’s my top pick this week now what we dealing with we’re dealing with a major championship length golf course and difficulty I mean we’re talking here 5,000 square feet on average green

Surfaces so by my Reckoning they’re the smallest greens that we’ve seen on the PGA 2 so far in 2024 and it’s the longest Golf Course by a country mile if you’re looking for parameters I categorize the South course as Coastal clearly it’s on a cliff Edge classical so old style

Midcore level is what we’re likely to see so anything it’s so so consistent here what the what the Champions deliver in terms of winning score Homer 13 under last year luk Liss 15 under Patrick Reed 14 under Mark Lehman 15 under so there you go that’s where we’re aiming at if

You can get a player into those teens this week you’re going to be fighting for the victory you’re going to be certainly in those each way spots if you’re going to have a player that ends up around that kind of scoring parameter um the north course that’s far shorter 7,258

Yards they feature 6,000 square ft on average greens they are pure B grass on the North Co on the sand on the south course of course we’re dealing with our old friend it’s the first time of this year that I can say this poana poana greens I used to call it POA

Anua do you remember that for years Champs on the podcast POA anua and then someone said Steve it’s poana okay so poana greens this week and as we say lots of players especially kind of players from the Southern United States that grew up on Bermuda grass so southeast United States you know your

Carolinas your Alabam even Florida you know Floridians they do tend to struggle in these putting surfaces because they get extremely bumpy and um you know these these golfers do like a moan they like pure running surfaces like we saw last week well you’re not going to get that this week at Tory

Pines just to give you a indication of the difficulty of the golf course we’ve got thinner Fairways this week than last week at PGA West and of course a 7,765 yard par 72 so thin Fairways huge length 4 inches rough that’s what we’re up against this week now I do like this

Test um had a few winners here had will zat Tores two years ago um should have won luk list came from nowhere he came from five back luk list in 2022 to take that 80 to one and then last year I think we were all on Max Homer weren’t

We 28 to1 again he was five back entering into the final day I say final day because this week the Farmers Insurance runs from Wednesday to Saturday so that the final uh final round coverage is not clashing with the NFL playoffs so Wednesday bets need to be placed remember that listeners it’s

Not a Thursday start this week so if you’re off the pace I mean Mark Lehman here as well look Mark leean was fallback in 2020 so if you’re within four or five going into Saturday here you have a shot of vict ictory so again if you’re if you’re an in playay better

And you can find players that you like four five shots back it’s a ploy on Saturday undoubtedly in the final round anything you guys I mean Barry you you like your course architecture and I know I know that you you are more a fan of 14 under winning a golf tournament

Rather than 29 under win in a golf tournament is there anything that in particular you you like about Tor Pines or you remember it looks nice on the coast um I do like the 18th the way it rises and they kind of sit on top don’t they

And they’re all wondering whether to go over the water and aim for it in two great closing hole Yeah I without having gone to the course and you seen it on TV you can kind of just pull in what others have said but I’ve heard an awful lot of uh good discussion

That they don’t utilize the land as well as they could do there for the holes and that there should be a bit more width um to to kind of shape the holes a bit better for how the the clifftop kind of um areas work so look we’re getting what we’re getting

Um we could debate it all week long but it just looks uh looks like this is going to be an absolute um animal this week on the south course hit it I mean at this stage when the fairies get this tight does and the roof is this high

Does you know driving accuracy kind of to a certain extent go out the window and it’s just pure power because if you’re going to miss 40 50% of the fairways you may as well be a club or two or three clubs closer to the green than than other

Guys yeah I get that so in in that way it becomes a little bit of um it kind of takes away a few different skills I suppose but and just rewards um or you know rawal power doesn’t get punished as much as other uh skill sets so I think that’s that’s a

Key thing I’ll be looking at this week um yeah I mean it’s it’s a bit of a bomb and goue isn’t it uh with a question mark at the end it feels like it will be that um with a little bit of rain coming down so maybe not the most entertaining

Type of golf to the eye but uh the backdrop of the coast will be good to kind of offset that you mentioned Ry 8 me 8 millimet on Saturday a further eight on Sunday and yesterday 33 mil one and A3 Ines of rain on the golf course and it’s still raining there at

The moment as we’re recording this podcast UK time so um you us time rather so that rough that course is going to play long at least for the initial 36 holes there’s going to be moisture in the course undoubtedly and that does to me potentially make the shorter hitter’s task even more

Difficult but clearly you know that isn’t such the case on the on the North Course and if you can go out there and shoot a 64 on a soft Golf Course Thursday or Friday you’re going to get yourself to the top of the leaderboard and then it’s just

The case of hanging on for D Grim death if you’re a chz Rey for example who’s a very good as Paul would tell you very good panana putter chz re I believe he has a top 10 here as well so it is possible for shorter hitters to contend but um yeah I think

Ultimately slightly longer players do tend to get the job done here I mean look at Luke list for example very very long off the te the other thing I will say Barry as well if you can find bombers that have a short game that can scramble around greens and

Also have a positive Strokes gained around the green score and can make the odd putt very much in play this week which kind of rule you know what I’m saying so if you if you to look at categories of bomber cam champ is just absolute animal of the tea and as soon

As he then gets his hands on irons and any other club very very spotty has good weeks has disastrous months Luke list on the other hand could not cannot put as we know very struggles with the putter but consistently excellent off the tea and very good around the green

They’re the kind of players that they’re a rare mix short game extreme power that’s definitely play this week if you can find a player like that there aren’t many around by the way right I’ve gone for four average winning price of this event over the past five years is 42 to

One the shortest price of a winner since 2010 here which who isn’t Tiger Woods is 14 to one Jason Day 2015 Justin Rose 2019 I believe Justin Rose was world number one when he won in 2019 seems a long while ago gives me hope chaps that one of the

Top four and I know this sounds ridiculous given the last three weeks of events that we’ve had gives me hope and I have been right the last few times that Scotty Sheffer didn’t win at 6 to1 or 13 to2 gives me a hope that Xander Klay Homer

And morawa aren’t at one of them isn’t guaranteed to win this tends to be players that are slightly below the very obvious that get the job done here anyway I you know me you know the podcast um I took 12 to1 with unibet um unfortunately he’s now 12

To1 with bet Fred eight places each way I had to take six uh yesterday when I was pulling all this together first thing on Max Homer um we know that he has already defended a PJ to a title and he is just absolutely made for this type of

Gol so um I kind of took the risk out of it of doing all of this homework finding players that could win at a deeper price and then gets stung by Max Homer defending his championship by just backing the guy so I’ve gone three points each way 12 to1 on Max Homer that

Is still available or better terms are available with bet Fred right now they’re offering eight places each way and 12 to one on Max homer so of the top four I’ve I’ve gone for for Homer over morawa cantlay and Xander that’s where I at um I know the

Price is very short so I expect the answer is no but either of you following me in on Max Homer this week yeah when only on the exchange for me 15.5 he was 15 and a half so that’s 14 and a half about 14 so one when you

Round it down with the deductions for for um Max on the exchange but um yeah I I I I think your logic is right stepen that he is quite capable of uh defending retaining that title so um rather than just ignoring it yeah almost

A saver for me just to just to make sure that I don’t uh don’t regret not having backed him so yeah I mean from the defense from sorry B do the same you’re in toe I’ll do the same on the exchange yeah I don’t I really hate

It when bet 365 do the Boost it it I don’t think it I don’t think a player ever won when that death when that has been on them seen a few recently but not many now think I recognize with Max is since you know he’s been defending titles bear

In mind he’s won five times on the PJ tour already yeah he’s finished 10th when defending the Genesis first when defending the foret and eighth last year when defending the Wells Fargo so he gives it a go y gives it a go and as we said if he’s

Within 4 or five on Saturday evening when we all settle down to watch this you’ve got a chance you’ve got a chance so yeah we’re all on Homer that won’t surprise any regulars right more interesting bets I couldn’t leave alone Jason day so I’ve taken two points each way at 25

To one with William Hill eight places each way on Jason day I mean I won’t bore you with his record around here but the amount of Firsts there’s two of them second thirds top nine finishes here is unbelievable we also know with Jason day he must be licking his chops with the uh

The elevated event next week at Pebble Beach because he’s had a second 34s at a fifth there plus three additional top seven finishes at Pebble Beach so clearly gets on very very well with these poana pting surfaces um you can throw in a fourth that he got at TPC Harding Park the year

That morar won the PGA he’s just playing nice golf he’s um hitting plenty of Fairways he hits the ball plenty long enough the approach plays decent the only thing that’s holding Jason dbat and this is a guy that back him last week at 33 to1 to win the AMX which you know in

Retrospect is Jason they ever going to get the 30 underpar probably not but it’s just his pting that’s been holding him back of late which is encouraging really because he’s normally a phenomenal Putter and if the putter clicks on these poag greens like it seems to year in year

Out you can’t really not see Jason day being involved over Friday and Saturday on sort of the the the closing rounds of this so I’m on Jason day at 25 to one right I’ve got deeper selections from there two more uh where where are you pitching your pitching your 10 pole

On this one in terms of uh selections um I’ve got I’ve got one at 55 so I’ll take you through that in a sec um and then a three figure shot my 55 to one shot was Justin Rose who I took yesterday you can get a little bit

Longer 66 out there if you want um just the bul standard each way places but so I took rose with with uh with 55 to1 yesterday um I backed him back at the uh the Sony didn’t I after that final round at the senty where he shot 61 absolutely

Flying that day and uh didn’t do a great deal at the Sony a couple of rounds of 67 but nothing special finished you know down the made the cut but just finished a bit further down the field I think this suits him best of the three courses

That we he would have played so far this year um one in 2019 as you mentioned a few minutes ago fourth eighth sixth um Place finishes either side of that 18th here last year I think um this sets up very nicely for him I think there’s some good underlying form just bubbling under

The surface uh one on the West Coast Swing last year at Pebble there’s uh there’s plenty to like about Rose and I think getting a decent enough price about him um as I say if you if you fancy taking a bog standard 66 is out

There in uh an event that I think he can compete and potentially win so happy to to take a chance on Justin Rose this week but yeah the other one I’ve got three figur so I’ll uh I’ll go through that in a second if you’re looking for corresponding golf courses this week

Paul it’s not difficult Riviera Country Club Bay Hill Quail Hollow mirfield Village you know it’s it’s it’s the old classical test that we see year in year out on the PJ tour where tough midcore even technical scores get you the victory and you know Justin Rose is all over that isn’t it

That’s that’s his bread that’s his bread and butter I hate that term but um I’ve added it so yeah that’s that’s where Rose plays his best stuff so I can see the logic in that completely uh Barry what about you how question for you though uh here

How do course debutants go in general we got any winners from playing on debut I think John Ram was the only player that’s won this on debut okay so there’s precedent there I’m thinking because of his pure length um and power I’m thinking Min Le yeah I just kind of get

Outside that um those shorter prices into something that’s got a little bit of juice in it and yeah he’s just got that yeah massive power and that’s um it’s an appealing appealing enough price compared to some of the the bigger I suppos the more Superstar established names ahead of

Them the only thing that put me off start I mean because we got some cracking guys attending this this week in terms of those types of bet so Min wo Le Adrien [ __ ] we got Nicolo hoard you know some talented sorts Robert McIntyre but if they’re seeing these two

Courses for the first time and this golf tournament starts on Wednesday it’s a very very tight you there must there’s going to be holes that these guys don’t get to play surely before first T off on Wednesday you got 36 holes to learn and you’re you’re arriving on a Monday

Morning and it starts on a Wednesday yeah it’s going to be a tough old call to get to know the course but just to throw um throw this one out there Ram became the first player since 1957 to win on course debut here seven years ago worth recognizing with John

Ram as well he went to Arizona State I believe so he was kind of already he played college events here and they do play a lot of junior golf here at Tory Pines so you may find that some of these players could be a minu lead they’ve

Played here in the past anyway as Juniors so worth worth digging around but yeah minu Le don’t forget fifth at the US Open last year top five the US Open up in Los Angeles so it’s not as if this guy can’t contend on tough technical long golf courses because he

Clearly can so yeah I I can see the logic in M okay trigger not pull yet but that’s interesting uh kind of looking at a couple of others one I agree with you on Steve so I’ll let you take care of that but um I think this I know who that is

Yeah yeah you do I might be ready for um I might be ready to get on the Shane Larry Train again it’s going to come at some point he’s going to contend it’s it was never going to be 29 under at the P but these guys use this as sharpness don’t they

Yeah it was be last we sharp up yeah nice couple of moments little flirt with the cut hole out Eagle it just it feels like there’s something just has to snap so he’ll either he’ll either bomb outside the top 1,000 in the world or it’ll come back you know there’s it just

It’s been too wishy-washy for the last kind of uh year and a bit or maybe even a year and a bit more where you you feel like it’s going to come but it just hasn’t so this just you know reminds me a little bit it’s not quite it’s nowhere

Near the same but just brings me back to the win at Firestone just a tough long tight course and you know that was one of his big you know that was his career moment until he won the open um you know Coastal course his short game hasn’t been as

Great as it looks like his short game always looks amazing but you know hasn’t been as great as it looks for the last while just feels like the things are he’s saying are just uh maybe the mental space is that a little bit better and

It’s just that one or two% that he needs to unlock so I think I’m going to do it I like the price for him so just going to be a fun a fun mid price bet yeah I can say that don’t forget as well we’ve also got the Florida swing

Just around the corner we know that Shane likes those tougher Florida tests uh almost won the Honda the other couple of years ago didn’t they m standing on 18t yeah when I look at my Strokes gained records here 8 weeks um you can check them out in my preview

Detailed um 8we Strokes gain numbers there mark Lehman ranked third in my Strokes going T to Green ranking that week uh in 2020 list was fourth for 90 to one and Max Homer last year was fourth you can also throw will zorus in who finished runner up in 2022 to loot

List he was tied forth with list in my rolling 8we T to Green numbers so I’m just going to look at my te to Green numbers right now for they’re slightly skew with because we’ve got a new season so we’ve now got a load of rookies in

There that have only played one or two outings so you’re getting some weird names in there that’ll settle down I mean at the moment Hayden Springer is top of my TAA green ranking for a couple of for probably one round or two rounds that he played last week at PJ West but

Ranking second is Max ho Homer ranking fourth is Colin morawa in there as well in the top 10 so if we stripped out your Springers your MC Meers and people of that variety he’d actually be ranking in the top eight is sep Striker now I know that Barry that’s the

Other player I think you were going to put up sep striker is that correct yeah you know it got some he’s finished 13th in here and 16th in four appearances and we just know now sep is a top 20 in the world player who completely and constantly is undervalued

By lots of odds combers so I just thought 45 to1 eight places each way was something I couldn’t turn down when his numbers are so strong so I’m on one and a half points each way with bet Fred that bet was with I I know there was a

66 to1 number out there with far shorter each way places on first show on sep strucker whoever took that well done but yeah I’m on sep strucker as well he’s he’s clearly okay with the course you don’t finish 13th and 16th here if you don’t like it and he’s just playing some

Phenomenal gol from te to Green right now and don’t forget this is a guy that finished seventh at Oak Hill last year in the p J second at the Open Championship it’s not as if he can he can’t mix it with in Elite Fields these days so yeah I’m on sep Striker the

Other one I’m on there’s one uh year where the numbers go completely the other way my eight week numbers and they they went to someone that was putting lights out he ranked in the top 10 of my putting number that particular year and he came here with a red hot putter and

Also in reasonable form that was Patrick Reed in 25 to1 the player of that ilk that I found that I think could go very well here is Harris English I’ve gone one and a half points each way 45 to1 with Harris English that was with bet 365 each way extra eight

Places he’s finished run up here that was to Scott Stallings in 2015 he’s also finished 14th and eighth across 10 Farmers appearances is but don’t forget they played the 2021 US Open here which John Ram W Harris was third in that 80 to one that particular

Major and this is it with Harris English on the choir if you look at us opens and you look at tough 10 sort of 12 under scoring conditions he does gravitate to the top of leaderboards and there’s two things that Harris is doing particularly well now he’s driving the ball brilliantly

Long and straight and as we know with Harris he can go through six-month periods where he’s where he’s very very crooked well the driver’s bang on right now very very strong driver right now and he is putting extremely well right now and last year he finished second at

Bay Hill third at Quail Hollow and he was eighth in that Lac hosted US Open that we just mentioned about minw Le English was eighth in that so he’s the sort that could creep in for me Harris English at a big price so I’ve gone for

Homer 12 to1 Jason day 25 to1 two 45 to1 shots Harris English and sep Striker Paul who’s your triple digit selection can I guess don’t Matt Wallace no I was going to guess the same wow no I’ve I’ve weaned myself off of Matt Wallace for for a week dangerous yeah is

Dangerous he the sort that could pop up for a top 10 this week Wallace yeah no it’s um now now you now you’ve mentioned it I might have to uh might have to pull the trigger no the one I backed is Tom hogi uh 125 to one out there now 100 to one

If you want the extended places hogi for me he always underrated um his approach is always solid um it’s been really good um all the way back to Wentworth in the Autumn actually when he was over on the DP World Tour uh we a few hes didn’t we

We did yeah yeah it’s I think his approach play um works well at uh Tor uh 38th of the century eighth for strokes getting approached that week another um another casing Point effectively Mr C the Sony with the 17th last week nice little warm up for this it’s boom or bus

When he comes here lots some Mis Cuts but then he’s finished 12th back in 2018 fifth in 2020 as well so when it works when it all clicks hogi is the kind of player I think who can come through and potentially place at a big price so I

Took the eight Place option with 100 to one but if you want to be really Brave there is 125s out there with shorter terms but uh yeah hogi see if he can uh see if he can sneak into one of those top eight positions worst

Bets he is he does like his PO as well if you win at Pebble you clearly get on with it yeah y yeah it’s just one of those players that always seems to be you know slightly the wrong price to me when I when I say it same yeah give him

A try he sits right now I’ve just gone to our predictor model and I’ve maximized poana um po finishes over the last five years Max Homer W Justin Rose two Jason day three friend of the podcast Gary Woodland for Tom hogi eighth place yeah interesting right let’s move to the DP

Wter we’re still over in the UAE we are playing the RAS Alima championship this week Paul over to you yeah it’s just just up the coast isn’t it from Dubai not far at all um we’ve lost the Rolex series status now so and we’re back to

Normal that’s left us with a much more regular looking betting Market one that we’ normally kind of expect on a regular DP World Tour event Rasmus hoard 14 to1 favorite H Thor olon 18 to1 Jordan Smith 18 to1 the old names coming back to the four for these kind of events Tristan

Lawrence 25 to1 Xander Lombard same price 25s Yanik Paul 25 to1 uh Lorie caner 33 Tom McKibben 35 to 40 to one bar those Players Ball Sports are eight places each way as standard this week so do check out their prices and as we’ve talked through already bet 365

Have their eight 10 and 12 Place options out there at a fifth of the odds this week so um well worth having a little shop around before you place your bets this week at razel kimer we’re going back to the AL Hamra Golf Club it’s a Peter haradin design I think for haradin

Think Doha think um Abu Dhabi Golf Club those kind of he’s got he got a few dotted around the Middle East that is designed but certainly a few that we’ve uh seen over on the DP world and the older European tour circuit over the years it’s a 7,410 yard pass 72 it’s set

Just off the coach so it’s got a definite Coastal vibe to it in my view exposed Fairways um with deserts around so it does look like a desert course just with the kind of lagoons in play and uh you know the regular kind of desert features you would expect

Otherwise now there are four reachable power fivs for the very long hitters this week three sub 400 yard par fours as well so ultimately it’s a resort style course um birdies and Eagles are always the currency here in good conditions and good conditions is what we should expect particularly for the

First couple of days uh light winds Thursday and Friday temperatures up to 25 27 Celsius what’s that 77 to 81 in Fahrenheit that kind of number looks a little breezier over the weekend and this is actually kind of worsened a little since I put my previous out

Yesterday Saturday 10 to 15 mph maybe gusting 20 Sunday yeah maybe just down a notch or two but certainly a little bit breezier over the weekend so that should it should keep the players honest if nothing else now we’ve got a little bit of course form um to study for this week

The tour did um come here for the first time back in 2022 it was a double header that year Nikolai h guard 24 under won the inaugural event at 35 to1 then a week later Ryan Fox at 22 under one at 60 to1 so two long hitters there Hoy

Gard and fox last year Daniel Gavins 17 under par at 200 to one you guys will remember this from last year Gavins was a couple clear going up the uh the final Hole uh banged it in the water twice and uh eventually made what was it

A 25 maybe getting close to 30 footer for double bogey on the final hole thinking that he’d blown the tournament and then uh Alexander Bor who was behind him managed to Bogey the same hole as well or he might be just in front of him actually one other two and whichever way

Um he was a very lucky boy Daniel Gavins to to end up winning the tournament um 12 months ago but win it he did so that was Gavin’s slightly different m which we’ll go through in a second before that we did have three events on the challenge Tour held here as well uh

Jordan Smith won in 2016 Jen’s dantorp in 2017 and adri on house in 2018 so you think Smith think on house Hy guard Fox we’re kind of getting a view as the kind of player that can uh that can contend and perform around this course now we have skill

Stats from those three DP World Tour events driving accuracy if you look at the stats raw stats for the whole field driving accuracy stats are way down you know if you’re hitting even close to 50% of Fairways then you’re right at the very top of that uh metric the three

Winners um hoard Fox and Gavins each of them hit less than 30% of Fairways down in the low 20 some of them so you don’t need to be hitting Fairways it’s not that kind of course um poy Garden Fox drove the ball way as we’d expect they

Hit greens made enough puts Gavins was the exception cuz he was around about 30 yards shorter than the other pair scrambled well and absolutely putted lights out as we say that final hole the 72 hole was a a case in points for how Daniel Gavins managed to somehow get the

Job done 12 months ago in terms of Strokes gained hoard was first for strikes gain off the t uh him and fox were both second for strokes gain approach um and the same two were first and second respectively for strokes G te to Green so that’s how they got over the

Line Gavins third for around the green first for strokes game putting so the polar opposite I mean for me if we were to have 102 years worth of History here eventually um then I suspect we’ll see many more Ryan Fox Nikolai hoard types winning this tournament rather than

Daniel garin’s types I think long aggressive play is the way to go here hoard 15 under for the par fives Ryan Fox was 14 under for the par fours so um different ways you can do it but you got to attack those score ball holes you got

To attack the long par fives you got to attack those short par fours I mean either way you’ve just got to be aggressive I think um the only other point to make is that all of the winners and that’s going back including the guys from The Challenge tour days as well

Each of them had a top 10 finish in one of their last nine starts so a little bit of form to to to cling on to isn’t a bad thing even Gavins I mean Gavins was a 200 to one shot he had finished sixth back at the Dunhill links the previous uh Autumn

So just maybe not absolute immediate form maybe someone you know even the the likes of hoard and fox they both missed the cut on their previous start so that’s you know very immediate form maybe just a little bit off-putting but um yeah someone who’s got a competitive

Outing in the not so distant past is um is probably a good starting point as well so but yeah for me bombs away I think Saturday Sunday might keep a lid on the scoring just a little but I’d expect probably 20 under somewhere in that bracket to be the winning total so

You’re going to need to make birdies you’re going to need to make some Eagles over the course of the week now off back four this week I had a good look at the top of the market and I really couldn’t find any value there um it’s the same old names isn’t

It at the top and how you know we just don’t see these guys when they’re installed as 14 16 18 to one shots they just don’t go over theine the like yeah yeah you know I was on Allison last week and in a in a deeper field with a better

Price I get that but when he’s out there as the second favorite and he he did nothing didn’t he do do you want to tell the story about t Elson in your first round lead about Steve I’d put that completely out of my

Mind yes so for 45 to one i b Olson at first round leader last week and um so he’s in a tie for the lead going up the 17th we know with the course there at the Emirates it’s a um the 17th is the short PA for um and the 18th is the

Reachable power five so he on five under um in all likelihood he gets to to six wait in in you know in the final an analysis if he’d got to six under then he’d have been a standalone first round leader so um on the 17th he drives it in

The middle of the Fairway just what 30 yards short of the pin so little up and down and he gets birded no makes par there um the final hole fantastic drive into the Fairway finds a divver um and what I think he was still only 200 yards

Out 208 something like that has a pop at the green straight into the water makes bogey there and finishes in a 700 way tie for fifth place I think in the end so I say you were seething you were ready to jump out of your office window

Weren’t you and seething yeah I my my daughter was off school sick and um she did learn some new words at that point it wasn’t really it you know my bug Bear’s Full Stop in terms of Bogies on the final hole don’t bogey the last it it winds me up was

Good at that last week I noticed but yeah doing doing that when you’ve got a um a nice little 45 to winner just uh just just ready to be collected was particularly particularly ging yes anyway thanks thanks for reminding me St I just find it’s good to to relay

These uh stories to our listeners it’s good good to vent now and again so yes Allis sudden um yes I’m not backing him this week you you won’t be surprised to hear I have backed four though um I pack backed um Pablo lbel as my headline tip this week now

There’s still a little bit of 45 maybe 50 to one out there in one place right now and I think that Pablo’s got a cracking chance this week I really do um Life’s good for the Spaniard his wife’s expecting their their first child so there’s lots of pictures of the uh the

Baby bump doing the rounds on social media um he’s been working on his swing over the off season uh he’s seriously likes the results he’s seeing he’s put on some some miles hour extra yardage and really enthused with this game and how it’s all progressing shook the rust

Off with a 20th Place finish at Dubai Creek and then he shot a bogy 3 66 on Sunday at the Emirates finished fourth that was his personal best at the Dubai Desert Classic he’s been there for years I think that was his 16th attempt um never quite mastered the uh the corset

Over at the deide Desert Classic but that was a big personal best for him and his best Rolex series result as well I think that’s going to give him bags of confidence heading into this uh into this part of the season and certainly into a what is a definite lower grade

Affair this week now Pablo is never one who hits loads of Fairways so if you’re getting away with 20 30% of fair Airways hit this week um then that’s right up his alley and if it is windy over the weekend or a little bit breezier at least then that’s got to be another

Positive for him he’s a really good fair weather wind player wet wind player no fair weather wind player absolutely so um that all sets up nice for Pablo and he finished third on debut back in 2022 um he’s uh putting well I think was it nine strikes putting um that he

Gained here when he uh when he can’t finish third back in uh 2022 the putter was working well again last week and uh also the long game top 20 Strokes going approach top 202 to Green last week as well I there’s so much that I liked

About Pablo I just you know as a 50 to1 shot I had to put him up top I actually took 45 to1 with um Extended places but say 50 to1 still out there so Pablo at the top howong Le I’ve also backed again there’s 50 to one out there now we on

Lee back at the BMW International open that was the summer before last 2022 and that’s when he won his third to war title now you remember that one as well um because that was when he was in the playoff with uh Thomas Peters poor chip on the first playoff hole and then he

Hold that absolute monster 50-footer to knock the stuffing out of Thomas Peters who have missed his birdie part as well and won the title yeah I remember that yeah one one of those very rare um final hole successes that that I was on board on cuz so often in those playoffs it

Just goes the other way and you hang in your head but no it was the other way and very pleasing that there was some decent signs the reason I backed him that way because there was been some decent signs in his long game in particular um you know in sporadically

In the lead up to that and his form was certainly trending and I think his forms trending and peaking again right now 14 for Dubai Creek really solid long game that week seventh last week at the emirs um fifth for strokes game approach and he led the field also for strokes game

Putting which U when he’s putting well he really is dangerous now like Pablo he also has a third place finish here um and if you’re thinking of um reasons to play well he’s got that carrot of an Olympic start dangling in front of him he’s uh played

In the 2016 he made his debut of the Olympics back in 2016 at Rio didn’t play 2020 or 2021 as it EV ended up being I think if he can keep progressing and it’s going to be a big Target for him this year if he can keep progressing

Then he’s got a chance of making that Chinese team I think howly so um we’ll see how he goes but I I couldn’t again leave him off the team at um at 50 to1 similar price also Alexandro alesandro Del re um again there’s a little bit of

50 to1 out there I suspect Del re is going to be closer to 40 to1 by the start but again I still think that’s a decent price I’m sure you guys will remember John Ram talking about um Del Ray at the um before the US Open last year at La

Country Club because he played a uh practice round with him it was absolutely waxing lyrically about his game um he’s one of these typical modern golfers hits an absolute mile makes loads of birdies loads of eagles he shot a 58 on the challenge tour the Swiss

Challenge um a few years back that was on a pass 7 2 as well so that takes some doing to shoot a 58 on a 72 fifth at the South African open before Christmas seventh at leer Creek as well some s decent form as always you know you and I have

Some ideas of the kind of players that we want to put up um at the back end of the previous week Steve and um I’m looking at Del Ray going into Sunday and he’s sitting in 10th place and I’m thinking he’s just going to absolutely crucify his price there but he did

Absolutely nothing on Sunday in fact he shot 77 so he he went way down the field and that’s kept a lid on his price this week uh to a certain degree which I like 28th here on debut last year um and that was after six weeks off he didn’t

Finished third on his next start so he’s had his warm up I think he can hit the ground running this week Alexandro Del re the final one I’ve back and then I’ll bring you guys in Callum shenin 90 to1 is the best price out there now he did open at

125s but there’s been a lot some money for Callum shinkin and I think that’s right I think he’s got the raw credentials here to go really really well now we’ve seen him win twice on tour w at Cyprus he won at Celtic Manor as well I think he does a lot of his

Best work when he’s not too far away from the coast and certainly on exposed style courses second of the Daniel links as well um that was the year before last that’s another example of when he’s done well on this you know on a Coast or or a

Course that’s not a million miles away from the coast and certainly with exposed Fairways averages 306 of the te I certainly did for last year and a couple of top 25 finishes that he’s had here at alhamra he’s finished first or ranked first and sixth for driving

Distance on the week I think he sees this as the kind of course where he can just open his shoulders and give it a proper rip with the driver 11th last week in Dubai long game stats really good seventh for off of the T 12th for T

Green 14th for strokes gain approach he was also Strokes game positive with a poter and that does or is worthy of note that because he’s generally particularly over the last few months been neutral very best and often being negative with the drive or with the putter so to see a Strokes

Game positive performance last week is a step forward and if you can keep that momentum going with the p combined with his strong long game I think [ __ ] shenu got a chance of making the hway frame here so happy to back him as well so that’s shinin Del Reay howong Lee and

Pablo LEL for me any for you this week Barry yeah but with a warning to everybody listening just don’t don’t follow what I’m doing it’s it’s messy I can’t sync up with the European tour um I’m I I don’t know it depends how much you’ll bribe me to not back out on

Um I like that b Paul and I probably put him in and just kind of going on very just high level Strokes gained on the course and a little bit of recent form um I’m going to go with Johan verman and Masahiro camura yeah yeah yeah car Mo played some

Nice stuff last week didn’t he he was on uh he was the one that was on a 59 watched for a while wasn’t he and uh didn’t didn’t quite pull it off but um yeah played some played some really good stuff really good stuff so I can see

Your logic definitely about you Steve anything catch your eye I think the train’s departing you know this this week I think do you know what I think this was exactly the same 12 months ago we’re all on Max Homa and I I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re all on the same

Play in this as well I’ve got to go with how tongle I’ve actually placed a bet during the podcast with lad Brooks I’ve got seven places each way at 45 to one on how Tong Le he’s well capable if you look he’s one in Dubai he’s finished second in Saudi he’s

Finished third here on this course when he came off a 32nd Place at to buy the week before his approach play at the now is just incredible he ranked fifth for strokes gain on approach last week which I believe was better than Rory maoy and he was top for strokes game putty

Y and a lot not to like well this is it and in this field of non-winners there’s plenty of those he’s got three DP World Tour wins and a plethora of Asia and China win so you know this guy can win golf tournaments yep so I can see why you’re

Putting up how on Lee and Pablo larazabal in a field of non-winners so there’s value there to be had but yeah I’m on howong yeah yeah I I think there’s you know people will look at it and think well he’s erratic and makes the mistakes but this is the kind of course where

You’ve just got to go out there and you’ve got to make those birdies and Eagles yeah you might make I don’t know over the course of the week six or eight Bogies or double here or there yeah it’s it’s going to happen but if you can end

Up making 25 birdies and a couple of eagles which he’s well capable of doing then that could well be enough he’s never been a Fairways Fairways man is he he’s always been errant off the tea and this golf course sounds like it’s the kind of course that won’t punish that to

A to a degree to a large degree when you’re getting away with 21 22% driving accuracy which Fox and uh yeah and and hoard and and even Gavin’s got away with then then yeah yeah it’s it’s Barry there you are how T yeah I’m going to do it just

Figure out where where to go the lab books price and places is a good combo it is right now so yeah howong Le for me that’s the only my only better rat alimer right I hope your bets go well chaps this week let’s uh let’s let’s hope for a winner after three

Weeks of near misses yeah best luck boys two Lads let’s go best of luck to listeners we will be back next week what have you got poll next one it’s the Bahrain Championship with an almost identical field by the looks of it uh but you got Ryan Parmer flying

In no you’re right absolutely our friend Ryan Palmer and uh the other event is the AT&T Pebble Beach uh elevated event so that should be something to look forward to I hope your bets go well listeners and we will see you again next week goodbye if you Gol but everyone that you back misses the cut get some experts Involved with all the stats and the tips and so much more cuz it’s the golf beding system the golf beding system it’s the golf beding system Podcast