The Early Wedge is BACK! Eric Cohen is joined by Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald to break down all of the best bets and picks for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines!
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We we are back welcome to the early wedge presented by B MGM I am your host EC AKA Eric Cohen make sure to like this video And subscribe if you haven’t already to the Sportsline YouTube page a lot of good things we’re doing now and a
Lot of good things on the way but let us get right into it it is the Farmers Insurance open one of my favorite tournaments of the year at the great Tory Pines in the San Diego area let’s bring in the stars of the show and you might recognize them it is the host
Of the early Edge every morning you can find him at 10: a.m. eastern the counselor and one of the greatest golf betters on the planet and it’s it’s true councelor C aad great to see you and of course the Great Golf writer from CBS Sports and I actually was saying this
Before the show that I had been reading his stuff for years before even he started working at CBS Sports he is a he’s a great mind in in the realm of Gulf Patrick McDonald great to have you both on great to be on with you guys uh
This year Patrick I’m going to start with you gonna throw a curveball so we had an amateur uh Nick Dunlap from Alabama win this tournament uh last week at at the AMX in in the Palm Springs area but Sam Burns pulled a me on the golf course he went double double to
Finish let’s be honest here you cannot bet Sam Burns until he wins again right like after what you saw we’re done betting Sam Burns even though he’s not in this week yeah you certainly don’t want to bet him this week I’ll go that far but
E see we talk about the pressure of an Amer winning on the PGA tour you know what I think is even more pressure being the guy trying not to lose to the amiter on the PGA tour the five time winner the Ridder Cup winner the guy who’s been
There done that and so I understand the hate or the disdain for Sam Burns following the double double finish but if you get him in that type of field again I’ve been calling him gen pop the uh bigger Fields where he’s thrived throughout his career you get him 40 50
To one that’s his sweet sweet spot and he typically closes I think it was just a a bit of an anomaly counselor when you look at a guy like Nick Dunlap um great win for him I mean clutch as Patrick said Is this a guy if first of all if you were him
Would you turn pro immediately secondly is he betable the rest of the year are we looking at this as a fluke result well so here’s the thing when you’re talking about the American Express and and some of these courses that tend to be like super birdie fests some of these
Guys can sneak in and capture the top spot especially when guys like Sam Burns double down the stretch so no I don’t think he’s anybody I mean as far as turning pro I mean I don’t know I don’t know like that’s probably a better question for Patrick I don’t know
Exactly what’s at top of mind for a sophomore in college right now in terms of like I mean he he got his win under his belt obviously he took this week off he was in the field but as far as the other side of it I mean that’s yeah it’s
A tough question I think Dunlap we’re not going to see him on the radar much the rest of this the year it’s just my guess on these tougher courses even on the on the layups I just don’t think that’s gonna happen again this year but I do think the future is promising for
Him Patrick take the cash if you’re done laap or do you want to keep playing for free I I think you have to turn pro because the best area to learn if you want to learn as a professional golfer who you are it’s top tier PJ torvin and
He has a ticket to all eight of them The Players Championship he’s already in the Masters he’s in the PGA Championship now and so most of these guys coming out of college you got to go through mini tour you got a Monday queue you got to go
Through corn fairy tour it sucks it’s tough you got to fire low 60s every single time you’re out there and he’s bypassed all of that because of this win so I think you have to go yeah well he pulled out of the Farmers Insurance open and let’s start talking about this
Weekend’s tournament it’s actually strange and the reason we’re doing this show on a Monday night because the tournament starts on Wednesday which is bizarre it’s the only one they do uh it this way because of the NFC and AFC championship games and that’s fine I get
It you know they don’t want to go up against those see let’s talk about your first storyline that you uh are are looking at this weekend in San Diego tell us what it is and why well let me lead with this I mean I’m first of all
Credit to the PGA tour for acknowledging the AFC and NFC Championship are going to just dominate the landscape on Sunday so you know that this Wednesday start it absolutely makes sense to me me uh good for the PGA for again acknowledging it I mean this is not the first year that
They’ve done this I will say this though in light of it being earlier you would think the sports books would oblige with a full set of first round leaders matchups and things like that don’t worry we have bets on this show to give you but they’re a little late on the
Trigger here and I’m a little disappointed it’s not like it’s a bevy of college basketball games tonight as you know EC or NBA games like they they’ve got the the man and woman power to to get some of these lines out there so that’s my admonishment of the sports
Books but my storyline is this I mean we talked about Sam Burns we talked about Nick Dunlap we have a few big-time Heavy Hitters in this field I mean from Xander chafl to Patrick Klay uh Sun JM is in this field Jason day who’s done well
Here but I’m really curious to see if some of these young guns that people have had their eye on for quite some time now six 12 months guys like minw Le guys like L the gber I know I’m potentially pronouncing that wrong but I’m still the jury’s still out on how to
Pronounce Aber Berg o bear I’m not so sure so here’s the thing I think these two guys can really make a name for themselves on a course like this that’s extremely challenging that let’s be honest once you get to like the 70 to one and longer like a lot of those guys
Can’t compete on a course like this particularly the South course which will be three of the four rounds here and the long and short of it is if one of these guys emerges especially when you have a couple of these guys going to live like John Ram of course who who’s the most
Recent Defector here I mean I think one of these guys could really put themselves on the map in a really huge Way by taking down this tournament and honestly I think they’re both live to win this tournament Patrick as far as your storyline there’s a theme of certain
Players that you’re kind of relying on this week what is it and why yeah course history tends to be pretty sticky around Tory Pines and it really stems from California Connection I know C and I last year hit on maxom you got there’s a few rules in golf betting right one of
Them is BET maxom in the state of California four out of four of his wins are in the state of California he goes for the defense this week but you also have guys like sah theala who won the fort net Championship he could follow in
The same path as Max winning in Napa and then winning here in San Diego and then guys like Xander shafley who grew up around these parts has plenty of course history he struggled out of the gate in his professional career at Tory Pines starting to get it get it going now and
Patrick hlay who really doesn’t have much course history here a couple miscuts hasn’t finished inside the top 50 and who I think looking back on it should have won the 200 21 US Open no disrespect to Johan Ron but K more Kawa he played as good as he had that entire
Week missed a lot of short putts was in the mix last year as well at the Farmers Insurance open uh he he’s someone who I think could go very well this weekend they all have ties to the state of California you know I just throwing out
All my notes from later in the show because I think you just uh mentioned everything that I was going to say about a few of my outright picks that were getting too later in the show was I’m glad you got listen we’re on the same
Angles and by by the way if you’re a Sportsline member between the four of us or excuse me between the three of us we put out four articles a week Patrick has two CA has one and I have one so check out sportsline.com if you’re not a
Member hit me up on uh on X or Twitter and I’ll see if I can get you the best deal that we can how about that so check that out sportsline.com lot of great content from these guys uh myself M squared and more so check that out sportsline.com all right here’s my uh
Storyline to watch this week can the Run of triple digit WI ERS continue let’s hope not because if it does I’m going to lose uh Chris Kirk at 200 to one no I wasn’t playing that in Hawaii Grayson Murray absolutely I wasn’t playing that and Nick Dunlap there was one guy I
Think that had a $300 win ticket on him way smarter than I am why would you bet $300 on Nick Dunlap to win I wish I had that kind of money but congratulations to him if we get that again I mean I have a couple of plus 110 that I put in
My article but or plus one plus 110 or 110 to one whatever it is if that happens I’m losing let’s hope we get some normal priced winners here that’s what I’m looking forward to this week but let’s start off first before we get to our outrights in our finishing
Positions frls and matchups we’ll talk a little bit about those later in the show Even though no lines are out yet but let’s get to DFS picks and I’ll start with you Patrick I actually disagree with your fade but you have some interesting prices or interesting players you want to throw in your
Lineups let’s see what you got yeah E I typically go to the discount rack uh for this show in DFS right I like guys at the top like I said I’m pretty fond of a Col more Kawa this week uh but in that mid-range if you want to save some money
Get some flexibility in your lineups I’m kind of buying Daniel berer I know it was his first start in 18 months last week but in his two rounds at the stadium course ranked inside the top 15 both off the te and approach Tory Pines has the highest three- putt percentage
On the PGA tour these greens are bumpy they’re they’re hard to read a lot of variance there and that’s where he struggled last week so you get him he finished top 20 in this tournament a couple years back I think this is a great chance to buy him I don’t think
People will be rushing to get in on Daniel Burger this week so I like him at 8100 Ryan Fox is a DP World Tour player coming over this year with the PGA Tour card won the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth long off the tea irons are
Very uh up and down great short game great putter but he’s played well at hard difficult golf courses like Bay Hill like Oak Hill uh top 25 in each of those tournaments so I think I’m willing to take a flyer on him at 7500 Michael Kim graduate of Tory Pines High School
Off that T6 last week California Kid C cow bear playing some great golf he’s gonna have to drive the golf ball well that tends to be his weak spot you tend to like good drivers at the golf ball here but I think at 7,300 you’re willing
To risk it and I said good drivers of the golf ball L Oar I’m fading him at 9700 he had a great FedEx Cup fall great Ridder cup but he struggled during the Hawaii swing I think you could make the case that he was The Biggest Loser of
Those two events to tell you the truth and off the te took a little step back iron play a little step back and for me I just need to see it on a big boy course he hasn’t played a Big Boy golf course in his PGA Tour career yet he’s
Been all birdy Fest all the times if he plays well this week I think it’s a buy sign for major championships in the future but for now I’m just a little hesitant yeah the thing about a a bear how how do you pronounce that again you help yeah help us out here it’s
Pronounced ludvig let’s just do that let that’s a good call counselor we’ll go with LV the thing I like about him listen the the driving of the golf ball when he’s on he’s arguably one of the best guys to bet or guys off the tea in terms of stats the putting comes and
Goes we know that the problem is no course history here and I think that’s a few of your guys there Ryan Fox I don’t think there’s course history there I like it with Burger it’s moderate Michael Kim is a local guy so I get that but when it comes to course history
Counselor you’re fading a player that actually would be my number one fade as well this week why do you not like Patrick Klay well certainly the course history isn’t great and and Patrick spoke to Patrick uh McDonald not Patrick cley spoke to that about a few minutes
Ago I mean here’s the thing like like first of all I tend to get Patrick kentley wrong I think a lot of people say that about Patrick kentley sometimes they say about Xander chafl too I wasn’t exactly inspired by what Patrick H’s performance was last week either and
When I look at the guys at the top listen I I can’t pretend to like everybody right so I look at the guys at the top and I see Colin morau I see Xander schafle I I see Max H and I see Patrick kley and out of those four
Patrick kley is going to be the Short Straw every single time so especially right now considering course history in recent form I just like the other guys better so it’s not that I think Patrick kentley will necessarily have a terrible tournament but given that he’ll be I mean at at least somewhat popular
Because he’s at the top of the board and he has the California ties I just I’m not I’m not trying to get into that I’d rather play a different popular guy at the top or fade all the popular guys at the top alog together so that’s why I’m
Fading Patrick kley I saw you kind of like shaking your head a little bit about ludig we’ll get into him a little bit later as far as course history is concerned Min mu is a guy I like he doesn’t have course History either I’m you know I’m starting to think unless
It’s a like and I understand like this is a course where course history probably does matter relative to other courses but I’m starting to sort of fade when I factor things in I’m not factoring in that I’m not factoring that in as much as I was let’s say two three
Years ago when I was handicapping tournaments because there’s just so much more information out there for everybody with their caddies and just with the general knowledge that you can ascertain and to get to the course early and just the practice rounds there’s so much there that I’m I’m just not super
Intimidated by a guy not actually playing a competitive round on the course so that’s part of the reason I like Min m Le listen the one knock on minmi and it’s a it’s a pretty legitimate knock is his approach play like the approach play has not been very
Good but this guy absolutely bombs it he his short game is very good as well around the green game is gonna come into play here he just like ludig I think these are guys that can capture like the the top prize here I think these are guys that can win this tournament
Especially when you don’t have guys like Scotty Sheffer or John Ram in the tournament I think I’m not going to be surprised if either of these guys are at the top on Sundays now we go down the board sort of to to that discount wreck this is a guy that I don’t think
Anybody’s going to play I could be wrong it’s early but I think when you look at this mid sevenk range you might move to like Ryan Fox but or Michael Kim like there’s a lot of guys that are gonna be relatively popular for Good Reason by
The way I like Fox and Michael Kim Grio when you look at his recent form it’s it’s not very good and when you look at his course history it’s not very good either but when you dive into the numbers a little bit more his ball striking on this course has been very
Very good usually he’s missing cuts a at this tournament because of either around the green game or or or the putter now the putter is starting to come along and for the record while his approach play has been bad as of late he did gain approach uh just uh the last tournament
He played so I think Rio’s in a position where because the putter is a little bit improved and because around the green play can be a little finicky especially when we’re talking about a ball Striker who may not be able may not need the around the green game quite as much I
Think Rio’s just an interesting value at 7500 that’s going to be relatively contrarian and then I’ll go fast through this last one Joseph bramlet has a really good history here for a guy named Joseph ramlet I mean he he’s a guy that’s making Cuts here long iron play
Is good um putter can can leave a little bit to be desired but the round the green game is okay I think Joseph Bret is a really good value play in the 6K range very good picks there one that I would throw in here at 7500 Rio hitsun
How do you Patrick help me with that pronunciation there e just stop while youread just call him Rio Rio 21y old uh stud golfer gained 10 stri R’s putting combined in the last two weeks look for him in the 7500 range and don’t try to pronounce his last name going to point
That out I totally random question here Patrick what’s your handicap on on the golf course I’m a scratch golfer are you really I am all right so congratulations I’m definitely not in that in that realm uh when you play a golf course are there certain courses that fit your eye better than
Others yeah ju I mean I’m generally pretty wild off the tea so you put on a tight traditional classical golf course and you take the driver out of my hand I tend to get handcuffed a little bit all right so you’re like Jordan Speak basically something yeah I’m I think I
Get like worse as I get closer to the green all right so here’s why I asked that so the counselor mentioned that course history to him is becoming less of a factor but you just mentioned for your personal game certain courses fit your eye how do you factor in course
History just in terms of picking winners and what and DFS etc for this show well it’s two different questions it’s course history and course fit and someone like Min mule who doesn’t have course history is a great course fit you want someone who’s a great driver at the
Golf ball can get up and down when you need him to and can Spike with the iron play that’s Min mu Lee to a te that’s Ryan Fox as well of course history wise you have someone like Tony F now who’s also happens to be a great course fit
Who has like nine top 25s and 10 appearances or something like that he’s ridiculous around this place so it’s about kind of balancing course fit and course history a little bit so I guess this kind of leads into counselor when you’re when you’re picking your you know
Your outrights for this week or your your matchups Etc how do you factor like what percentage is course fit what percentage is course history and is there another metric that you can you know share with everyone out there that you would recommend they look out as well when they’re doing their own due
Diligence yeah it’s a good question so I mean I certainly don’t allocate a percentage because I don’t run models like one of the things I’m I’m kind of prideful of and I think models are fine is that I’m just looking at the raw data and and I’m going back from a recency
Standpoint or a long form standpoint I’m going back as far as I personally see fit for that tournament so in terms of course fit like that’s really important to me so what I know the course calls for what I think the course calls for I’m going to look at the data and The
Strokes gain metrics that that are consistent with that and I’m I’m specifically looking for Trends not necessarily long-term trends but in the example of a Milan ago listen I I know he’s a good ball Striker I know he hasn’t been a good ball Striker lately but because I know traditionally he’s a
Good ball Striker I know he’s been good off the te I know that he actually gained for once on approach the last time he played a tournament and I also know if you narrow his his driving distance uh to just kind of like the last like 20 rounds instead of like long
Form like the last 50 rounds he’s actually gaining with the driers so those are all promising things to me when I see that also he’s a guy that’s been a really good ball striker on this course so it’s always a case-by casee basis for me I’m looking for things that
Stand out uh from from some players that are that are maybe getting ignored especially from a DFS analysis that’s what I’m looking for want to thank Silent Assassin 313 in the chat who pronounces Rio hisas soon so thank you uh I appreciate that checks in the mail
All right let’s hear from one of our sponsors here biggest event Sports is coming to the entertainment capital of the world CBS Sports HQ will have you covered every minute getting you set with all the critical analysis you need Ready Set Vegas all right guys let’s talk about uh
Players that we might want to buy I know we’re not at the frl those aren’t out yet probably will be out in the morning see you on the morning show I’m sure you’ll give out plenty uh come Wednesday morning are there a couple players that you’re looking at at maybe uh upper
Double digit odds or triple digit odds that might be worth a price uh on on Wednesday yeah they might not be all like super long odds specifically for this course even though it’s first round leader so it does like lend itself to Randomness and I will say this I I’ll
Have some picks for the early edge of course and I’ll have an article that it might be a little shorter than it normally is this week because of the timing of everything but I’ll have picks in my sports line article too so here are some players that I’ve kind of
Highlighted that I think are going out at the right time we just don’t have odds for them yet so they’re not necessarily like my definitive picks but just to give you an idea of some of the some of the guys that I’m considering Steph joerger uh Michael Kim who’s
Already come up in this show a couple times Joseph bramlet Colin morawa Seth straa those are some initial names there’s other names on this list like Ryan Fox is on this list I’m gonna have to narrow it down to four or five names but those are some of the names that I’m
Interested in that I think can Spike for a first round and also are pretty good course fits not necessarily guys that I think can win this tournament like Taylor pendrith I don’t think can win this tournament do I think he can Spike for 18 holes I do think that’s possible
Same with sep straka although sep straa has shown us last year that he can actually Clos Tournament down but he is really good from a showdown standpoint and from a flash for 18 hole standpoint SE stro is pretty much the poster boy for that I was going to try Rio’s name
Again as my as my frl long shot H something I’m done with that all right Patrick when it comes to picking a first-run leader are you looking at guys that are just playing the easier North Course or would you take a chance on some that are starting out on the south
Well I assume there’s going to be two markets right one for the North Course one for the South course there will be but just to Echo seea I mean col morawa has been a first round fi in 2023 he was he like led the Tor round one scoring he
Led after round one at the Players Championship uh you saw what he did at the Tour Championship as well he led after that coming from 10 Strokes back even and he had a great start at the sentury I think he was nine under one off the pace after 18 holes so colore
Kaai it’s going to be a short price right if we get him to 20 to1 that’d be very very nice I doubt it gets that far but he’s the one the one name I have circled as well give me one other player I’ll start with you Patrick on this one
One other player when it comes to matchups not out yet once again that you were looking to buy and one player that you were looking to fade in a particular matchup yeah I think someone I’m I’m looking to buy is probably Tony feno I think this is a great chance to get in
Early a little bit he’s been pretty quiet since his went at the Mexico open in April but but course history is obviously there he gained in all aspects in his two rounds at the stadium course last week uh so I think he’s someone his floor is just so high that he’s a good
Choice in matchups and then someone I’m I’m willing to fade is blood Vick to tell you the truth I just I need to see it from him I think he’s overpriced just given what he did in the FedEx Cup fall against guys like Eric Cole and McKenzie
Hughes I know the big big dogs aren’t here but there’s still a lot of big dogs here and I still need to see him kind of prove it to me see you give me all the Fades on Patrick Klay just what you had in your DFS uh breakdown are is there
Anyone else that you would be your major fade and then maybe a a buy this week I’ll give you a buy you know this is an interesting name kind of down the board let me share something with you this is kind of off the Record because and
Here’s why when I say off the Record it’s kind of funny right we we’ve had like so many pre-show by the way we had like a lot of like Court related uh talk in terms of like our jargon and there was somebody in the chat who mentioned
Something like jury duty I think it was Mark buckolz you were in jury duty this morning that’s why you missed the show for those of you that don’t know that’s near and dear to my heart I practice laws as of a trial attorney for 13 years that’s just me like touting myself sorry
About that but I thought it was I thought it was topical here’s the thing off the record I say off the Record because not all the matchups are out so I don’t want to give a match I tend to not want to give a matchup out I mean
It’s kind of unpressed when all the matchups aren’t out like we don’t have head-to-heads we have round one three balls and we have some tournament three balls maybe not all of them but we have some tournament three balls but we don’t have any round one head-to-heads and we don’t have any tournament head-to-head
Matchups which is a little frustrating but this is where we’re at here’s a guy that I’m I’m looking for he doesn’t necessarily have the course history we’re looking for but I do think he has the other metrics that we’re looking for I’m gonna give you a round one three
Ball and I actually really like this I’ll probably give it out as an official play not definitely I got to look into it a little bit more I’ll probably give it out as an official play either tomorrow morning or Wednesday morning because when we do the early Edge
Wednesday morning I don’t think the tournament will have started yet on the west coast Stephen jger plus 105 in a three ball this is a round one three ball against Ben Martin and Hayden Buckley for the record Ben Martin plus 210 Hayden Buckley plus 250 I think
Stephen joerger is easily the greater of those two and we get to these harder courses I think that’s when we see the cream sort of rise to the top here and for the record from a course history standpoint I don’t think Buckley and Martin have much uh to speak to now
Stephen jger doesn’t have much to speak to either but he’s the far superior player so as far as a round one three ball don’t mind that one at all at all as far as a fade it’s a good question I mean Patrick Klay I don’t know that I’m
Like looking to fade him necessarily I would probably look at maybe Eric Cole to maybe a bad tournament maybe this isn’t the best setup for Eric Cole hii Matsuyama I’m always kind of down to fade him because he’s just been kind of down with this game those are a couple
Guys I probably have my my eye on and don’t forget Wednesday morning obviously I would assume or maybe even tomorrow on the early Edge you’ll be giving them out I know the chat rooms blow up when you give out your picks people are so excited because you are absolute money
When it comes to just about everything uh golf so we appreciate uh we appreciate that and it’s just too bad the lines are not out early I mean it’s it’s kind of ridiculous that we’re what less than 36 hours away from teeing offer thereabouts and we don’t have
Lines uh what are we doing here PGA here all right I want to talk about finishing positions and we’ll pull up our lists and everything like that but there’s one sports book out there where you can bet any finishing position and ties count you’ll get get paid the full amount
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Bets regardless of your first Wagers outcome with bonus code edge 158 that’s Edge 158 make sure to bet your finishing positions at betmgm and you can thank me later all right now let’s get back to the finishing position sorry there producer Jake threw you a curveball what
Else is new all right uh seea we’re going to start with you you got a couple of top you got a couple of top 40s and a top 30 you got some plus money in there which makes me happy let’s hear what you got yeah especially when I’m getting
Into the T30 t40 Market I try to do plus money sort of across the board so if I give like four plays out and you hit two of them you’re basically locking in some profit if they’re all plus money to some degree I got Keegan Bradley at T30
Listen he’s got this is minus 105 so it’s it’s borderline even money it’s at least close enough to even money so the minus 105 doesn’t bother me there but T30 is very attainable for Keegan Bradley I do think he’s a pretty good course fit here and we see that with his
Course history and oh by the way his recent form has been very good too so I think minus 105 is is a fine price for a guy that I honestly think at least has an outside shot to win this tournament Michael Kim t40 Patrick McDonald already
Spoke about him he’s got the ties he’s got the course history which back up the ties like sometimes you’ve got a guy who who grew up in the area and they’re just they’re just not good on their home course so they’re they’re not good close to home for whatever reason well Michael
Kim certainly is he’s got good course history here so I like him as a top 40 at plus 140 and then I’m going Joseph bramlet uh top 40 plus 240 I mean listen this is a really good price if you at plus 240 you’re not necessarily putting
A full unit right like I don’t want to tell people how to bet but like this is the kind of thing where you can put like0 35 units or whatever three or 0.5 whatever you want to do and at plus 240 you’re getting quite the payout so I
Think Joseph ramlet has the game here he’s shown it in the past on this course I do think I don’t think he’s a superstar by any means but I do think he’s emerging we might be talking about him a little bit more throughout this season so Joseph brambl at t40 I will
Say this I considered ailano Grio at uh T30 which was plus 210 or even T20 and I think that was at like plus 360 uh I didn’t I I didn’t want to put that on here because I do think he’s kind of speculative I’m kind of operating on a
Trend here I don’t think it’s the right play uh for this Market necessarily but I do think if you like Rio and you like him the top 40 you’re getting a really good price at plus 210 all right so C is doing top 30s and or a top 30 and two
Top 40s well I’m doing a top 10 and two top 20s so we’re just going to combine it right there listen I like sah fala as a top 10 at plus 320 at MGM solo second at the sentury he’s a T4 here last year gaining a little over six and a half
Shots on approach that’s big time love to see when I when I’m picking my uh you know uh fantasy rankings and positions and whatnot I’m looking at approach stats that’s a key if a guy with their irons if they’re working that’s what I want to see you’re going to be up there
It’s very rare that I can think of maybe Patrick will correct me that a guy with when he’s playing well with his irons is gonna finish way down there I mean if your putter is really that bad but for the most part if the irons are working
You’re gonna be up there so I like theala as a t top 10 at plus 320 Tony fena I think uh we’ve talked about him a lot the counselors has mentioned him as well uh as a top 20 at plus 138 at MGM was uh T25 at the AMX finally showed
Something with the putter had not been great I think he had lost Strokes in like six out of seven tournaments with the putter finally turned that around that’s a good start but he’s the horse for the course here nine trips here five top 10 seven top 20s and also another
Horse for the course Justin Rose getting plus 200 for a top 20 uh he is five top 20s in his last six appearances here including a win and four top 10 I mean that is a sterling course history and you’re getting you know two to one odds
On that so I love that now Patrick has the key word we waited half an hour to finally get this in the word parlay which you know I love Patrick you have a make the cut parlay and it’s plus money and it’s beautiful tell us about it i’
I’ve been loving these EC you got to keep it nice and tight though can’t overextend yourself and get into the four five six keep it three keep your plus money be uh be patient and let your money accumulate over time the S SMP but I like this one uh horse for the course
Parlay Tony fenale you just spoke on him Jason day great course history he’s gaining throughout the bag the putter was just a little shoddy there at the AMX like I said everyone putts bad here at Tory Pines if he ends up putting well that’s just a bonus his TD green game is
In fine shape and then Keegan Bradley second place last year actually led the field in Strokes gain putting uh which is a bonus and like ca said he’s playing some great golf I like him to seriously contend this week so all three to make the cut up plus 137 yeah and you know
What’s great about your parlay there Patrick too is if you hit it you have money to bet on the weekend and so there you go you take that money and then you reinvest it in outrights on the weekend so what you got I mean patience maybe I
Need to learn from you know the counselor is an expert when it comes to being patient with his beds me I’m an action like if there’s action going on I got to have something on there so I like this you’re you’re done on Thursday you
Know if you’re GNA make if you if you cash this we’re on to the next we’re going to take our money on Friday we’re going to bet some outrights we’re going to cash on Saturday then you have money to play the Sunday football games this is all how it works we’re gonna walk
Away with a lot of cash this week I’ll tell you why because it’s time for some outrights now I’ll say this I was all excited about giving my Logic for outrights and then you guys pretty much covered it earlier in the show so all right let’s see what we have for
Outrights Patrick I’ll start with you what do you have and why yeah so I wrote my article for Sportsline this morning uh and if you were not able to read it I am uncomfortable giving out those plays at some of the prices felt like the top
Of the board just got absolutely cut in half uh between like 11:00 am and noon today uh but one price I still like that actually wasn’t in the article is Nikolai hogard uh he won the DP World Tour Championship over there in Dubai he’s coming off a Seventh Place finish
At the Dubai Desert Classic he is really long off the tea he is a great iron player and he’s a great putter the short game and the accuracy off the te can sometimes bite him in the butt but 11th and total Strokes gained in this field over the last half year seventh in
Driving distance top 20 approach and putting and like you said you see if the irons are cooking you can really uh do some damage so I like him he’s a proven winner he’s super young uh but at 55 to one I’m wor he is worth taking a flyer
On now give us a promo for your article that you cooked up earlier I actually saw it and you had a name in there I know you didn’t include him here uh Seth straa I think that was a really interesting pick I was hoping you would you would include him because I thought
That was a really Savvy one yeah sep opened up at uh I believe it was 66 to one I got him at this morning and now he’s down to 40 45 to one which I think is pretty pretty tough to stomach in my opinion but uh I mean he’s just a guy
Who generally doesn’t get enough respect like C you said earlier he knows how to win and he showed last year in major championships he can play tough golf courses well top 10 at the PGA runner up at the Open Championship uh just finished second to Scotty Sheffer at the
Hero World Challenge hit the ball great at the century and he has a decent history here so I like to step at 66 but not uh not 40 counselor you might want to cover your eyes for for this one when I say it the way I like to play some of
The outrights when a guy’s price gets cut in half as the week goes along is the parlay strategy where you take let’s say your pick that you give out on the morning show tomorrow if a basketball pick that’s not non golf related let’s say you parlay that pick with a golfer
And you you more than double the odds there it’s a pretty safe bet if C is given out a pick it’s probably gonna hit anyways so you have a pretty good chance now listen it doesn’t work out if you if you pick the wrong game then it spirals
Into a nightmare but if you find the right game and do it once you’re getting so you’re getting you know Seb straa at 100 to one where as if you were to bet him out right at at 40 to1 I agree with Patrick that’s probably not the right
Price there see you have uh three choices we’ve talked about all three of them but tell us why you are playing them as outrights uh what’s what’s funny about that comment you said you said I think that’s a pretty safe bet as if those words aren’t uh like dichotomous
To each other like there’s no such thing as a safe bet right you know what’s interesting about that is that if if the like I mean I’m I’m just like now now you’ve got me thinking like let’s say I like the Tarheels tonight um money line because they’re minus8 against Wake
Forest I mean I could throw that money line play in or the Sixers tonight minus 10,000 money line with with the out rting and at least get the the the St odds from 40 to one where I’m seeing it now at one book to you know whatever
That would end up being 45 I I don’t know what it would be because I’ve never done something like that but it’s at least something to think about but listen you’re already extending yourself playing outrights anyway we we all know that like the meat of the money in golf
Is in the head-to-head Market obviously so um adding something on top of an outright doesn’t make uh doesn’t make me feel all warm and fuzzy what does though is taking a couple of these guys that I think are going to be at the top of leaderboards for for years to come the
Next three five 15 years potentially I think ludvig and Min mule are guys that so what’s interesting is I think they can win this tournament obviously I have them as outrights I think the Nikolai hoard pick is really interesting and and as I go down the board I think once you
Get to hoard and once you get to like maybe Adrien Moran if you like him I think that’s as far as this board goes in terms of win Equity I just don’t think this is a tournament like the American Express where you can have a guy forget about Dunlap where you can
Have a guy like 80 to one like that’s just not going to happen with this tournament so I I think hoard is like sort of the last line of defense in terms of the win Equity but I’ll say this when you’re Nikolai hoard and or you’re ludvig notice how I’m not just
I’m not saying his last name or you’re minw Lee and the top of the board is without John R is without Scotty Sheffer and let let’s name a couple other players that like that aren’t you know here but we we’ve always known that like Dustin Johnson cam Smith that they’re
Not here of course they’re not going to be here but like some of these guys that aren’t here like no offense to Xander schofl or Patrick kentley they’re great they’re they’ve got the most win equity for a good reason but you know Max hon morawa like there’s not a lot of like
Elite guys for these newcomers to pass and and frankly I don’t know that we’ve seen quite yet like the Apex of either of these two games so I that’s why in this tournament especially a tournament that doesn’t have ROM or doesn’t have Scotty sheffler it makes me more
Compelled to take a abber and minm Le over like Xander at nine to one like I’m just not going to take Xander at 9 to1 I mean I maxom as far as the shorter odds are concerned I think maxom at 12 to1 is probably the one I like the most but I’d
Rather just go to the next tier that I still think has win equity and it’s these two guys Oar and minw Lee and then finally Keegan Bradley at 33 to1 I think that’s a reasonable number I’m not totally in love with it but considering like listen these numbers aren’t very
Good let’s just be real about like the hold percentages on these outrights like a lot of this stuff has really gotten cut down but I do think Keegan Bradley the way he’s been playing knowing the course fit and his course history I think at 33 to1 I actually do think that
Has a little bit of value yeah I think that’s I think it’s very good value for Bradley especially he played well at the Sony probably should have won and Grayson Murray at 400 to1 that was not really on anyone’s bingo card uh so we we all lost that one I’m telling you the
Parlay strategy call me crazy when you see a number like Colin Mora 12 to1 do you really want to spend you know if you want to win $1,500 do you really want to put over $100 on colore Kawa or do you want to bet 50 and then put it with see
Is whatever you know North Carolina or what it is whatever basketball game I’m just thr I’m throwing it out there I mean don’t blame me if it loses I’ve just throwing it out it’s just a way if you’re trying to bet more players and spend less if you’re confident in in a
Play From Another sport it’s a thought I like morawa here plus 1200 he was T4 at the US Open in 2021 he was third here last year gaining nearly seven shots on approach his three most recent tournaments first seventh and a T5 in Hawaii I like that a lot mini uh for all
The reasons that the counselor just said uh t21 at the MX gained 5.7 Strokes around the greens which is interesting here at Tory Pines we haven’t really talked about that thick rough if you are not in the Fairway you have problems you’re not you’re good luck making par
If you’re not in the Fairway when you’re around the greens and scrambling pars are great on the south course Patrick I mean would you agree with that especially here making this is like a in a way it’s a US Open setup right with the with the tall rough making part is a
Good thing I me we Le not so bad right yeah I mean some would even say it has it has hosted a US Open too actually so I like where your head’s at e see and I I do like siah theala you talked about him earlier in the show that would be my
If I were to do a oneand done which actually am in a oneand done pool theala will be my choice so I’m GNA play a correlation here and Patrick talked about it earlier in the show he won the fortnet uh championship in September that was the last tournament that he
Played in California the previous winner of the fortnet championship was one you know backto back in 21 and 22 or excuse me 22 and 23 was Max H who by the way won this tournament last year some guys just play well in certain States I’m gonna play that Angle now this when I
Put this up for my fantasy article he was 40 to1 earlier down to 33 to one you got to jump on these lines early I mean even I didn’t see this line movement happening like this kind of crazy uh so we will go I guess see how that plays
Out now before we get to our uh long shots and there’s there’s some good ones in here and yes I have parlays let’s hear from one of our sponsors will you need your sports news anywhere we’ve got breaking news to bring you then get your sports anytime you want them big trade
News overnight to discuss because we know you need Sports all the time a lot of movement in the rankings this week a legend adds to their legacy we’re bringing you that breaking news right here on HQ CBS Sports HQ anywhere anytime all the time now I think seea
Just talked about it as far as this week maybe not going to be your triple digit odds like we have discussed the first three weeks good luck if you’ve hit one of those guys I mean you’re going to have a great golf betting year mean not
So much if all these triple digits come in but it’s time for the long shot section and you never know see I’m gonna start with you why do you like aano Grio I look at that number and I I kind of chuckle at at 110 to one at this
Tournament but listen Okay so before I get there I do want to address a couple things in the chat one is Shan Richie’s question he says maybe a dumb question but if you think these people are outright winners why not just bet them top 10 min mui top 10 is plus 230 I’m
Used to betting minus 115s so you know what’s wrong with the top 10 at plus 230 nothing’s wrong with that you can absolutely bet that and and then and if if you want to take our outrights and maybe put a little bit like maybe just
Like 01 units on on the outright and you want to put like maybe the rest the 0. N or 0. five or whatever it is on a top 10 on the same player I think that’s a perfectly fine strategy uh it’s not something I do but certainly something I
Would consider the other thing I wanted to bring up real quick you see is something Josh Lucero brought up which was which is really important I think it’s a good strategy and something I employed last year a lot and we talked about it on this show if you got a guy
That’s really short odds and you really like him but you’re just not willing to pay the the plus 900 or like let’s say in Scotty’s case uh last week he was like plus 500 plus 550 in some markets which was ridiculous for that tournament in particular but the point is Josh’s
Point was hey maybe those guys stumble in round one and you can get them at a better price so for those of you that are especially new to golf like that is something you can do in the outright Market you can wait get a little bit information after round one sometimes
Even after round two and and you evaluate where that player is that you wanted to bet pre flop and you also evaluate who do they have to jump to get back on top and a lot of times you’ll get let’s say Xander at I don’t know 21
To1 instead of nine to one and he he only has like one Superior player he’s like maybe five six Strokes back but a lot of the players in front of him are are players that aren’t very good that probably aren’t going to last the four rounds so something to consider there
Listen I’ll keep it short and sweet Grio at 110 I I consider him discount Keegan Bradley I I just think he’s he’s the Lesser version of Keegan Bradley when ailan agrio is on with the ball striking and when he’s on with the Putter and he
Has found the putter a little bit as of late and and if the round the green game isn’t terrible and again that stat to me can be very finicky um I think he has all the ingredients to be like the surprise player at the top of the
Leaderboard so Grio for me at 110 to one I think is is going to be my lone long shot now Patrick you’re going with Michael Kim because you’re playing that local Tory Pines angle aren’t you yeah I mean we talked about course history but you got to know the area as well there’s
A lot of distractions out there in San Diego you got PB Shore Club you got Mavericks a lot of Red Bull vodka flowing and I mean Michael Kim he probably had his fun when he was 21 22 but he’s a 30-y old man now he has his
Eyes on the prize 125 to one he’s played some tougher golf courses well last year top 10 at Wells Fargo think about some correlation there Max H is an easy one uh to point out and so I like what he’s doing with his game like I said earlier
He’s going to have to drive the golf ball very well for Michael Kim in order for him to contend but if he does the rest of his game is is there and just to piggyback on Sea’s live betting note personally I love to do it after round
Two because the way the PGA Tour sets up the golf course on Saturday it’s meant for fireworks easier pin and if you get a guy in softer conditions and at a place like Tory Pines where the greens do get crusty towards the end of the day
And the leaders do not play in the same conditions as those who go out early it does present a great opportunity that’s a great point it’s a great way to look at it a lot of people will just set their bets beforeand and forget about it
And you know come back on Sunday and see if they’ve won but very interesting that there are plenty of opportunities especially here Patrick with uh you know you see how they do on the North Course and players that’ll play well on the south course are you more likely to bet
Them for the weekend if you see them go you know three or four under on the south and regardless of what they’ve did on the North it certainly helps right and I believe the south is the only one with Strokes gain data this week I don’t
Think the north has any so uh there’s a little bit of a feel involved into it as well when it comes to my long shots well I’m I’m not Savvy enough to pick triple digits here but I’m going to pick parlays uh and you can find these at DK
And these are pre-made parlays and they count ties as well top 10 parlay Plus at plus 800 morawa and minwu lei top 20 parlay plus 10,000 ludvig sjim who we didn’t talk about has a fourth and a sixth here in the last two years and fena who’s a horse for the course and
You’re getting 10 to one on that one and a top finish parlay at 35 to1 this one just gently sprinkle uh Colin morawa T5 mini T10 and feno T20 can take a shot you know made a little bit of money on these uh last year uh not saying we’re
Going to hit him every week but every now and then if we hit a couple you know you hit one that pays for A month’s worth so I feel pretty good about that but I would definitely not use a full unit a full unit of of betting on any of
These all right before we go guys I want to ask you about cash outs in the middle of a of a tournament um for example I had JT Poston uh last week in uh at the AMX and I was getting you know I don’t know8 to one on my bet after Friday and
I didn’t cash out and obviously you know Dunlap ran away and Sam Burns was ahead and everything like that seea your thoughts on cashing out a golfer halfway through the tournament after three rounds are you fully against it or do you ever consider it I’m pretty much
Fully against it unless it’s a long shot and I’ve got a decent amount of money coming back because I do think it’s a case-by casee basis with respect to first of all what your risk tolerance is because some people might just be perfectly content getting 8 to one on
Their money regardless of how much they put out but I mean you know you’re betting the outright for a reason like a lot of a lot of times instead of operating on on the cash out there’s a couple different scenarios you could have a guy that’s at the top of the
Leaderboard and there’s like six guys that are in the mix or you could have a guy that’s at the top of the leaderboard and there’s like two guys that are in the mix realistically that can overtake him or that can win the tournament in
Which case you could and I do this a lot where I’ll pick one of the guys and I’ll just hedge my bet to some degree so I mean that that doesn’t I mean it’s not the same as a cash out but you are hedging to some degree but it’s not the
Degree to it’s not the degree by by which you’d be cashing out in other words your hedge whatever you’re losing on the Hedge isn’t as much as whatever the cash out would be like you’d still be getting more by not cashing out so generally speaking I I don’t cash out I
Will try to hedge the other way because the beauty of golf and the reason I got into golf betting like 15 years ago was because of betting live betting outrights like I didn’t even know that was something you could do in golf and all of a sudden I was hitting live
Outrights and and it wasn’t necessarily live on a Sunday afternoon like when I first got introduced to it it was like after a day one of golf and I I would bet Thursday night on a guy that I thought was at the top of the leaderboard and could stay there but
Because of the live outright betting like that’s why the the cash out option isn’t something that I ever engage in I usually just go with maybe hedging it with another guy that could potentially win Patrick what’s your strategy there I’m the same way and the hedge price has
To be like correct I’m just not hedging it just to hedge and make back money uh the price has to be fair on the other end but I mean there’s there’s like no better feeling than hitting a golf outright and just like a there’s a guy
Who cashed out Nick Dunlap last week I mean how big of a dummy do you think he felt today it’s sucks so let it ride and enjoy the fun yeah I think I cashed out one or two a little early and it’s the worst feeling I because as you said when
You hit an outright it just feels so good you feel so much pride and when you cash it out oh no now there’s certain guys we talked about earlier in the show you just you can’t bet anymore until they as I said I think last year we
Talked about it Xander sha like or morawa after he blew the the Sentry last year I said I can’t bet him until he wins again he’s won again now it’s why can bet him Sam Burns well we’ll talk about that another week I want to ask
You guys about one more player before we get going here will zat torus Patrick uh he’s playing for the third straight week he has great you know pretty good course history here finished second here lost in the playoff to Luke list a couple years ago with that back are you staying
Away or would you would you consider a Sprinkle somewhere along the line on zel uh I I’m much more pessimistic about zotor than most I think I don’t like back injuries for golfers and you combine a back injury with a pretty drastic swing change which I don’t believe many people will notice
And there’s going to be a lot of short-term volatility and hopefully a long-term gain but I’m I’m kind of pessimistic on both honestly uh so I’m staying away from zalot Tores seea is there a player this week that from a live betting opportunity that we have not discussed today that you’re just
Keeping an eye on where if things start to break the right way you might look to get in on the weekend that’s a good question by the way as far as zador is concerned the the one issue I mean I like the fact that he’s playing three
Tournaments in a row uh what I don’t like is how he’s done like listen he he made the cut he was he was good pretty good last week but he’s been pretty bad off the tea since he’s been back at least the last three tournaments he’s
Been bad off the te he’s been bad with the putter as well I don’t necessarily like if those Trends stay anywhere close to that probably not the tournament for him to like really be successful at um you know that’s an interesting question maybe somebody you know at the top of
The board like again to Josh lucero’s Point earlier like I’m looking for somebody to maybe fall uh early and then that I can catch them at a at a much better price but as I scroll down the board here I will say this you know Keith Mitchell was really good last week
His record at at at Tory Pines is really really bad but if Keith Mitchell is at least decent on day one or day two maybe a little bit above average above expectation I think he’s a guy from a course fit standpoint I think he’s great so I think maybe based on last week
Maybe he’s turned it around a little bit because he hasn’t been good for quite some time guys like Keith Mitchell guys like Taylor pendrith who I think a really good course fits but just haven’t put the game together if the leaderboard at the top after day one or or to
Patrick’s Point after day two is not littered with the Patrick klays and the Colin Mo cows of the world if it’s just kind of a ho home leaderboard at the top and Keith Mitchell or guys like Taylor pendrith are doing pretty well in they’re lurking four five six shots back
In in T30 or t35 those would be guys I’d be taking a look at okay maybe their game is back they’re a good course fit and they can really flash for a couple of rounds maybe take advantage of the par fives you know one guy that we we
Didn’t talk about the entire show is Zender shafley who’s the betting favorite at nine to one and he’s a San Diego native really wants to win this tournament he’s gonna win sometime soon the game looks great played very well uh at the Sentry played very well uh at the
AMX watch out fander Schley that’s a guy that if you get a few Strokes back and there is history here I think Max hom was was down deep going into the last round last year and came back from a deficit watch out frander Schley if you
Can get a get a price in double digits there maybe after round two I would I would take a look but you know I one one last thing I want to point out Patrick said he was a scratch golfer producer Jake is pretty close we might need to
Have like a an early wedge golf tournament CA and Patrick against Jake and me and and you know terrible I’m not that great either but you know got brother yeah it’s a scramble we can so we’ll see how that plays out but guys it’s been a lot of fun uh thank you for
The first week of the early wedge so we’ll be back uh next week probably I guess either Monday night or Tuesday night stay tuned to the Sportsline YouTube page to find out more plus the counselor will will announce it live on the early Edge 10 am. Eastern uh closer
To next week we’ll find that out for the AT&T Pebble Beach proam so for Patrick McDonald the counselor Cen I am EC thanks for watching and as always let’s hit it big good luck
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Welcome back early wedge fam!!
Watching late!! Thanks for the picks and info, fellas! Appreciate you all!