2024 FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN DFS Preview – Picks, Strategy, Fades | The First Cut Podcast

Rick Gehman and Greg DuCharme break down the Farmers Insurance Open from a DFS perspective.

Intro, Course Breakdown: 0:00
10k: 9:18
9k: 18:10
8k: 23:59
7k: 33:06
6k: 39:06

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ABOUT THE SHOW: The First Cut brings you everything you need to know in the world of professional golf. Nearly every day Rick Gehman, Kyle Porter, Mark Immelman, Greg DuCharme, Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald bring you the best analysis in the game. From DFS to betting previews, interviews and recaps… everything golf is on the table when you listen to The First Cut.

Freaking first Cut Welcome to the first cup podcast I’m Rick gaming and this is your DFS preview for this week’s Farmers Insurance open joining me to break it all down Greg du charm is here hello Greg hello Rick uh exciting week I love the Farmers Insurance open week and it is going to

Be a big difference from what we saw last week we go from birdie Fest to Big Boy golf test uh in backtack weeks which I I think is really exciting yeah certainly a a wakeup call a dose of reality whatever you want to call it

From last week to to this week and uh before we jump into that it’s it’s worth noting I we probably said it a million times this week but we’ll say it again it’s a Wednesday start right so we’re we’re always in our routines whatever your routine is move it up a day which

Includes getting your oneandone selections into the first cut oneandone League it’s just it’s a little bit off Greg we’re going Wednesday to Saturday this week which I think is a great move you look at what’s happening uh this Sunday with the NFL playoffs championship Sunday maybe the best day

On the football schedule um and and making this simple switch I think is a beautiful idea by the uh PGA Tour Farmers Insurance open whoever made that decision I think it’s a really good choice and it puts on Saturday night the PGA Tour on prime time TV which is uh

And maybe just as important the first cut podcast in our uh in our recap episode that that’s really why they moved it to a Wednesday to to get to seed the stage to the first cut uh round fourth round recap episode well because you don’t want to take all those viewers

Away from the NFL so it just it’s just not right Roger Goodell and you know all the owners they got together and they said it’s too much uh we’re going to have to we’re going to have to ask them to move up luckily we were we were able

To to accommodate you’re not going to have two playoff games on Monday you know so you they don’t want we don’t want to put the NFL in that position there are two courses in play this week they are both right next to each other at Tory Pines and they are

Named the North Course and the South course now Greg the South course is the one that probably everyone thinks of that’s the US Open course it’s the tiger you know making the putt on the 18 that that’s the the one the more difficult one but we’re going to get one round at

Each before a 36 hole cut yes and and that’s important to note because there there is um a 36 hole cut this week last week was a 54 hole cut and the entire weekend is played on the south course so most of my focus is on the south course

The round at the North Course is a little bit of reprieve uh but it’s still a very difficult test and and I some your proximities are maybe a little different but ultimately the same skill set really is going to apply at at both courses hopefully you can make some

Birdies when you do play the North Course uh and you can get yourself in the mix you can kind of Salvage a bad round if you’re starting on the south on Thursday you can get back into it with a good round at the north on Friday uh or

Vice versa so you want to make your you want to make your birdies on the north but ultimately you’re going to have to face this Beast of a golf course on the south and for that reason I put most of my attention and stock into the South

Course yeah Troy if you want to share my screen we’ll look at the scorecards we’ll look at uh my website rickun good.com for some from course key stats here and the big difference that you’ll notice on the scorecards Greg is that the South course plays to 7765 yards about 500 yards longer than

The North Course both of them are going to have that thick rough if you miss the Fairway and uh honestly there’s I mean there’s a lot of rain in Southern California right now probably going to be some wet thick rough if you miss those Fairways and the North Course used

To be a lot easier than the South course they’ve kind of beefed it up over the years now it’s just a uh it’s definitely easier but it’s not like the four shot difference that we’ve seen at some points in the past right I mean you see 7200 yards nearly 7,300 yards on the

Card which is uh plenty plenty of test right you got the 16th hole is a 227 Yard part three that’s a that’s a bear the 13th is uh oh well now now we’re looking at the uh sorry I switched it on you yeah just switched it over but

That’s okay uh you have some you have some difficult holes so that that was obviously the 16th at the South course um but you have number 12 203 yards number eight 214 yards uh number three is 241 so there’s um there’s still plenty of teeth in the North Course and

Ultimately both of these scorecards primarily the South course it it highlights one area of focus that is a rare one when it comes to PGA Tour golf and that’s around the green play scrambling and short game are highly emphasized here um and when you look back at some of these winners maxom last

Year made some big improvements around the greens which helped him win at only 13 under Patrick Reed in 2021 won at 14 under Mark leechman hit three Fairways in his final round in 2020 and won at 15 under you have Jason day brt Saker Jason day um Tiger Woods with some memorable

Short game shots around here the winners here have a tendency of being really good around the greens and because this this is important to note because it’s really important to drive the ball well there’s a big advantage to hitting the ball in the Fairway yeah the fairways are still

Very difficult to hit so a lot of Fairways may be 65% of the fairways and that puts you in a position where you’re going to miss greens so if you hit 13 greens that’s a great ball striking round but there’s still five holes where

You got to get up and down so I put a lot of attention into into short game this week yeah I I I agree with you and it’s it’s you know you work your way back right you when you are hitting longer shots into greens you are more

Likely to miss those greens if you are missing Fairways you’re more likely to miss greens the the Fairway widths 24 28 yards wide in most places thick rough wet rough it yeah it just kind of all it’s like compounding interest right if you get out of position on one of your

Shots it is much more likely that you are going to be out of position and maybe even worse on your next shot it’s this is not a golf course where it’s just easy to rectify immediately like some other courses that we see on the PGH and you

Could take that a step farther uh putting from short range on this golf course is extremely difficult uh and so even when you have someone with a really good short game that pitch shot that may get to 4 and a half feet the likelihood of missing that gets a whole lot higher

And and that’s why you look at these winning scores again it’s important you have 13 under 15 under 14 under 15 under it’s important to remember that they play this is a par 72 during the US Open they will move that par to 71 so you

Could take you can chop four shots off of those leads right there now you’re into you know right around 10 under par and then you add in around one day on the south uh on the North Course the much easier North Course so the point of

That is it’s not much different than US Open kind of scoring US Open kind of conditions during this tournament yeah it’s it’s gonna be fun um I’m I’m excited to get down there and see what’s happening and I’m excited Greg to dive into the player pool with you and we’re

Going to do that after a quick word from our partners the biggest event in sports is coming to the entertainment capital of the world CBS Sports HQ will have you covered every minute leading up to Super Bowl 58 TBS Sports HQ at the Super Bowl getting you set with all the critical

Analysis you need this league is decided by quarterback he showed a lot of character in that moment great perspective Joe Cena it’s the moment you’ve been waiting for all season long Ready Set face and we’re back and we’re ready to jump into the player pool this is the

DraftKings pricing that we are using and this is my website rickun good.com this is the cheat sheet there are four golfers Greg over $10,000 Xander Schley leads the way at 106 Patrick Klay at 105 Colin Mory CWA at 102 and Max Homa at $10,100 I will note because we’re

Getting an early start because there is one uh fewer day to get this all figured out we actually do have the first run of projected ownership here Greg so we can kind of talk about that as we go through yeah very interesting and kind of nice

To have um you could see in that $110,000 range there’s a lot of ownership um kind of across the board it B it basically reads like almost every single lineup will have one of the one of the 10K guys and probably should I mean I think you’ll notice when we start

Getting down to the six and $7,000 range more specifically the $6,000 range there’s a pretty big drop off uh and so these players up here near the top are very bunched and I I think they’re pretty deserving of those of those ownership ratings okay so where

Would we go if if if we’re gonna get so you know this it’s obviously very early in the week but anywhere from 20 to 29% on the big four at the top where are we allocating that most valuable portion of our salary cap yeah um so one thing you

Could do and we’ll talk about this in the nines Sun JM I think is a really good play that cuts your ownership nearly in half according to these projections that is an option I don’t think some J’s far off but the thing I like about these top four is they all

Have some pretty good short games maybe Colin MOA is the guy with the weakest short game in that group uh but he’s actually my favorite play up here kind of Against the Grain and my typical model I I have this feeling and this idea that K morawa is playing some

Phenomenal Golf and he does it a little bit of a different way he can pound Fairways here he can pound greens here even from long range so he’s not a long hitter this is not the Bryson Des Shambo model but he is such a good accurate long iron player he has great results

Here I mean he has a a third place finish last year he came in tied fourth in the US Open and tied 21st in his first start so I I do think Colin morawa the way that he’s playing right now is a a real Factor this week and and my Top

Choice amongst those top four yeah it is um so this this is kind of the other the other way and I’m and I’m with you here is where are you gonna separate yourself off the tier are you gonna do it with a lot of distance are you gonna do it with

Short game Colin will if everything goes well do it by hitting a bunch of Fairways and then giving him a better opportunity to hit a bunch of greens where he’s not gonna have to use that short game and you’re right Greg I mean the recent form is um I mean it’s great

He’s back the the ball striking is there the putting comes and goes which is kind of what you would expect and enough history around this place to say okay maybe that West Coast POA is not much of an issue so I I think I’m with you here

$10,200 on Colin is probably my my starting point and once you do that you could put um somebody else in the 9k range you could even put s JM in your um in your lineup alongside colum morawa it pinches you down a little bit but that

Is an option so I like the flexibility that K morawa gives you and I think he probably has the best finish um of of anybody else in that top four what I also like is um again I think the golf course got I haven’t seen the official

Numbers but it got about an inch in a half rain on Monday um they’re they might still be getting some right now it might be done though at this point I think there’s a pretty good chance this is lift clean in place at at least on

Thursday and if they do it on Thursday they have to do it on Friday right because guys are going to play the other course same conditions right so if that happens guys that hit Fairways are a lot more valuable AKA colum Mora guys that are great approach players are a lot

More valuable AKA colum Mora like there is a path however narrow or wide it might be in which like this this is a perfect storm for him it it is a perfect storm an absolutely a perfect storm and and you go to this iron play and like

One of the main area 175 to 200 I I like to I think that’s a good kind of middle bucket yeah he’s fifth on the PGA tour second in this field in in that proximity range yeah he’s so good uh and and it doesn’t really matter what range you go to he’s

Really good in all of them anything from a 100 to 200 yards and then farther than that he’s he’s he’s all good the other thing and and I like that what you were talking about with sunjay there is you can almost you know in in golf we have

Very few opportunities if ever to find you know correlation between golfers maybe it is a a weather wave or we think something’s going to come in but this is almost like a a skill set stack you know guys that are uh likely to play out of the Fairway then turn into some pretty

Good ball Strikers now sunjay is able to putt a lot better uh week in and week out than than Colin is but these two guys I think vit fit a very uh specific narrative that if that narrative or if that um you know that script runs at the

Farmers I think that both of them are in the in the mix the other thing that I’ll add about sunjay is if you look at um the scrambling statistics sjm is 15th on the PGA tour and that puts him like seventh in this field – which is also very strong and

That speaks to the results that sun Jay’s had here sunjay finished tied fourth last year tied Sixth and 2022 tied 35th at the US Open his worst finish year is his first start tied 52nd right so you got a t36 t32 t35 T6 T4 he’s figuring this place out and I also

I believe his game is in pretty good shape despite a very disappointing Sunday at the American Express very disappointing it was just Sunday though I mean each of the first three rounds he gained two strokes to the field at least he went plus plus two plus three and

Then has the minus 1.7 but you go back to the century I mean he has played he has played six rounds gaining a stroke and a half or more and then he’s had two pretty ugly rounds now easy for me to say you clean that up and you’ve got a

Guy who’s in the mix yeah just don’t do just don’t have a bad round just don’t just don’t do that I just I fear uh that I chose the wrong week for sun JM one and done one week off I I really have a terrible feeling about

That uh yeah I would too if I were you because I think this place sets up really well for me kind of circling back towards the top uh the the top of the board here if it is not Colin is there another high-end golfer that you’d be

Willing to go to next yeah um again any of them but I I think we’ve seen more from Xander Schley than we have Max hom they would probably be my next next two I ranked him moraca one I actually ranked h two Xander three can’t lay four but I think that’s just

Because Patrick calls Xander wet socks yeah you’re letting him you’re letting him just like lurk in your brain but I I do like the price of Max hom um he he played fine at the Sentry and again the improved short game is really important

In my opinion um I also like if you go to the 22 200 to 225 Mark Max homa’s third on the PGA tour second in this field and that proximity bucket so a really good long iron player um can hit some Fairways too probably not at the

Clip of col morawa but if he when he gets growing and that swing starts grooving it works but again his short game and putting turned around dramatically where he can still contend even when he’s not hitting the the ball really well so yeah I I guess that’s why

I marked earlier today uh H as my second choice okay fair enough well we are already kind of kicking here into the 9k range because we’ve already kind of started that conversation it’s Sun JM ludvig oberg uh Jason day Tony fow minwu Lee and Eric Cole we talked about sunjay

Already Greg is this is it Ludy time right long and straight off the tea are we ready to rock and roll ah you would think so I would think it’s a perfect fit when you think of ludvig’s game this is the golf course that comes to mind

I’m just not sure of his overall form right now maybe it’s because the Sentry and the Sony didn’t fit his game as well um but you have a t-47 and a and a T30 but you know what the biggest problem with ludvig is it has nothing to do with

Him it’s that Jason day is sitting $200 is cheaper you you like you like the Jay day here yeah yeah I mean this has nothing to do with the outfit but you look at Jason day’s record at Tory Pines and it doesn’t really matter what his

Form is it’s really good he’s won here twice obviously he has a second back in 2014 tied seventh last year tied third the year before that he’s near automatic in this tournament and if you look at what he’s done not in this tournament recently uh he’s starting to really find

It with the irons and maybe struggled on the greens a little bit tied 34th at the American Express gain Strokes ball striking and know only two rounds are measured uh the Sentry tied 10th gained three Strokes approaching the green three Strokes around the green lost Strokes putting um 11th at the Hero

World Challenge again lost Strokes putting gain Strokes approaching around the green his his methodology is short game based I could see an uptick in the putting performance out of him and and I think he’s hitting the ball above his General uh fingerprint and and he’s performed he’s performed here coming in

On much worse form with the ball striking okay I’m glad you brought that up because there is a guy that we’ll get to in a little bit that I I feel the same way about where it doesn’t really matter kind of what his form has been

He’s he’s found a way to to get it done here Tony fow is not the guy that I’m thinking of but I I think Greg um and I’ve been pretty out on Tony for a while because he’s just been hemorrhaging with the putter he putted well in two

Measured rounds last week and if you’re trying to be early on Tony which I’m still up in the air on this is probably a good spot to try his history T9 last year T2 in 2021 T6 in 2020 that’s three top 10 finishes in his last four years

And he’s basically a top 15 machine at this event obviously the skill set fits I’m really only worried about that recent form but I I think it is worth a calculated risk to try to snag Tony before he pops off and finishes T4 somewhere and then he’s on everybody’s

Radar so he has let’s see one two three four 5 six he’s got 10 starts here yeah at Tory Pines including US Open and he in five of them he’s gained Strokes putting yeah and in two of them where he lost Strokes putting he’s still finished top

13 so I think this is a great spot to be early on Tony feno it it seems like there are a couple of players here with really sticky courts history like this style long right there in front of you uh challenging golf where pars a good score kind of works

And fina’s another guy with a pretty underrated short game in my opinion so I I’m right there with you I wrote down three guys for the 9k M day F now boy well that was that was easy we we rattled through those um we’re gonna get another look at minw Le finished t21

Last week we’re get another another look at Eric Cole finished t21 last week Eric Cole struggled on Sunday other than that he uh played pretty well again which is something he continues to do and I mean if we checked off the three names do we just keep rolling Eric is an interesting

Guy to talk about I I just feel like this run there’s a point where it slows down and it’s here if if I’m wrong so I’m gonna fade Eric Cole this week I I don’t like this golf course for him if I’m wrong I don’t know if I can ever fade him

Again listen I I tried to be like oh you know Sentry that’s the spot that or maybe I was thinking Sony I was thinking oh son here’s a spot that he’s gonna you know it’s finally gonna go off the rails no t13 and then honestly outside of uh

His his final round he was he was great last week yes he’s playing awesome golf which should Trump course history um it it should in general terms but the course fit just doesn’t quite match the feno the day the m and even some of these guys in the high 8K

Range okay well let’s continue the conversation to that 8K range we’ll do the eights the sevens the sixes see if we can find some value and what else we can uncover but first we’re going to take a quick break and hear a word from our [Applause] Partners they to we are back Greg and this $8,000 range starts with Keegan Bradley Harris English and sahi sah thala goes to seeki Matsuyama and Nikolai hoard in the middle then we round it out with rose Moran Burger back in Action chrisn bazen ho off a runnerup finish and will zalat

Tores so what do you want to do here in the eights the two guys at the top uh are very interesting to me and I think there’s a lot of question marks in this range as well but Keegan Bradley’s a great place to start now coming off a

Crushing playoff loss at the at the Sony Open but you look at what he does here at Tory Pines and it’s pretty darn good uh he was second last year he has a fifth place finish here two years ago tied 16th uh a couple of other top 25 three other top

25s um it’s it’s really really good stuff here and I think it’s because it leans so heavily on the ball striking category that Keegan excelled at and he’s in good form Tia green right now and he’s clearly found something on the greens so that combination screams Keegan Bradley to me uh couldn’t agree

More I mean he’s a long and accurate driver the you know all everything I’ll just you know reiterate everything that you said I thought it was Spott on about Keegan Bradley he’s $8,900 as of this moment there’s a lot of ownership in the 9k range there’s a lot of guys that are

Going projected to go down to the middle of this range which is leaving Keegan Bradley sub 10 percent which is just like I’m loving that like let’s start let’s start these contest right now with that number and I’ll be thrilled you know that’s um surprising I I also think

Harris English being under 10% is an incredible value he does it a little different way than Keegan Bradley but it it works here he had the third place finish at the US Open uh in two back in 2018 which I know it’s so long ago a tied eighth finish year uh tied second

In 2015 he’s had some success now he has been playing better coming into these weeks than say um Jason day who we were talking about earlier but right now I think we’re seeing a Harris English that playing some really good golf coming off a T14

At the Sentry a T10 at the Sony uh performing on the greens something that he’s done very well here and he likes a Stern test he likes a US Open even though you may not think that’s his style uh he tends to step up and perform

Really well when it’s really tough so I love I love Harris English here too yeah I know he’s got the win um at kaaloa but when I think of Harris English I think okay par is a good score don’t give up a bogey make three or four birdies every

Single day and see where you’re at that that’s what I think of not a guy who’s gonna go win a 30 underpar uh birdie Fest no um and it it probably comes from Iron play struggling a little bit even though he’s I mean he’s got a beautiful golf

Swing it just he’s he’s a scrambler and scramblers do great at Tory Pines so there’s a little more probably more so than any of these other guys we’ve talked about with a great course history there’s a higher miscut risk for Harris um but I I think his form is good

Enough to kind of circumvent that the rest of this range um you know you mentioned question marks I think there are like you said a lot of question marks here whether it’s zator and burger who are fresh fres off injury returns whether it’s Hideki who’s just kind of

Been as of late I mean there’s a lot to parse through is anything get you excited yeah well the the next three guys under Harris are question marks to me theala I can never figure out but go to the model of hey scramblers do great here and sahith is a Scrambler that’s

His that’s his Mo and surprisingly he has a great he has a great track record here and just three starts he missed the cut at the US Open tied 25th and then tied fourth last year it it could fit the mold for him um now but I never seem

To get him right neither do I so that’s the challenge but if I go to My Philosophy which is scramblers even though it wants to pull you to ball Strikers scramblers is is the answer he he sticks out to me um also caught my attention because his

Ball striking has been great and his record here also surprises me I I wouldn’t think initially hey this is a great sep staka track but uh three out of four Starts Here have been top 32 finishes he’s got two top 16s including last year and sep’s a much different

Player than he has been in any of these previous instances so again I don’t feel really strongly but I’m very curious and could see him being in the mix um then Hideki would be the last one okay Hideki I mean hideki’s record here hadi’s back to being like a very very

Elite ball Striker the SE Shaka stuff you know just just removing this week or last week or next week or anything like that he’s really turned into a much more consistent and a consist good player I mean he used to be win eight miscuts T2 seven miscuts and now it is basically

Six straight top 25s with most of them being top 15s and a well-rounded game that he’s able to kind of overcome some of his weaknesses that we’ve seen in the past I I believe the the ster trajectory is just it’s just impressive it’s just uh growth in his game and Improvement

And it could come to play this week I mean the stats don’t really show it right now but he’s been working on the short game and yet short game when I look at his um his recent results is the one column that seems to be mostly read

So you know it’s it’s an interesting thing but it reminds me of Max hom sometimes when players are working on one area the stats don’t show the Improvement the stats are late so maybe this is an opportunity to be oh it’s hard to call it early on sep straka but

I guess we’ll just go with it it’s a opportunity to be early on sep straa burger and zalot torus both made the cut last week both finished inside the top 40 zalot torus uh nearly won this event lost in a playoff to Luke list and then finish seventh the year

Prior to that are we getting closer to being able to click his name or are we still treading lightly I’m still treading lightly okay um you said last week you were okay with being early on zalot torus yeah uh I’m certainly okay with that this week is just this is a hard

Week I I think speed’s really important I think he’s lost a little bit of speed so I I still have unanswered questions with him this week could answer them could very well answer them because this is the kind of golf course the kind of setup the kind of test

That we expect and want will zelot torus to really compete in t34 this was two years ago and will alot Tores came in t34 at the American Express I wouldn’t bad I wouldn’t bad an ey I I worry about so good news is he gained Bas a stroke per

Round in two measur rounds last week on approach the driver is still still a problem uh but here’s the thing Rick he sprays it mhm there’s a very I’m not looking for sprayers but there’s a bigger Advantage here by missing big yeah than missing small which was the mark leechman

2020 kind of campaign right there’s an advantage in missing big because you get trampled down lies so it worries me a little less and and it’s still a big worry at the same time yeah don’t miss the don’t miss the Fairway by two yards miss it by

20 yards and uh that might be a little bit better okay 7K range starts with Keith Mitchell Shane Lowry lucel Steph Jagger middle of it is Ryan Fox Billy horel Taylor pendrith bottom of the range Gary Woodland Mark hubard Nick Hardy uh before I forget I will reveal

That guy that I was referencing earlier who always just seems to play well no matter what kind of forms he is in and that is that’s Luke list here Greg obviously a winner a couple of years ago mentioned that playoff with um with Will Z Torres but what I wanted to point out

Was I was looking at this earlier just kind of compare comparing what his outright odds were each week and if he outperformed them or not right so when you’re 300 to one like he was in 2020 and you finished t36 you’ve outperformed your expectation when you he was 110 to1

In 2021 and finished T10 outperformed he was 71 to one when he won W in 2022 when he was 100 to one last year when he finished T25 so that says that even when he’s come in in sour form with not a lot of expectation oddsmaker is not giving

Him any credit he has at least outperformed whatever that expectation is and now you know the putter I don’t want to talk about Sony I want to talk about everything but Sony the putter has been a lot better recently which is a great sign it’s a great sign so you can go to

Luk list here just about any year um the ball striking is still keeping up um I so I’m I’m good I’m cool with that I like what I’m seeing there and I’m hoping that Sony is a blip on the radar so I wrote down Lucas name and it’s

Because every single week he’s play he’s been playing uh the first two in Hawaii I I uh touted him if you will and I’m not going to back off when we go to his very best golf course and he performed fairly well in both of them um the

Putter let us down at Sony no doubt about it but I’m going to give it at least one more chance especially here at Tory Pines all right where else in this 7K range is worth investing I’m very curious about uh about Patrick Rogers because okay Patrick Rogers lot of

Distance his short game has been in very good form of late and he’s a very good putter um also went to Stanford so kind of a you know I’d say familiar with the golf courses and he’s played a bunch here now he he doesn’t have the consistent recent for or the consistent

Course history of a Jason day but he does have a T4 here and a T9 here as well and a couple of miscuts it’s kind of been up and down Boomer bust but has shown the ability to to pop so I like that upside at this price you could be a

Guy to kind of differentiate your lineup if you will I I’ll I’ll have to look it up but I’m pretty sure he’s a great POA putter which makes sense kind of a lot of West Coast experience and I’m pretty sure if I ran the numbers it’d be like Taylor Montgomery Maverick mcney maybe

Patrick Rogers I’d have to I’d have to double check on that but he is $7,700 uh okay well we did get the news a little bit earlier that Nick dun lab has uh withdrawn so we don’t have worry about trying to to figure that out he

Was $7,600 he is now out of this field anywhere else in this range that we can feel comfortable about uh building our lineups out um we go back to OE okay OE missed the cut at the American Express he shot 716 uh 7167 67 actually I think it was 70

6767 he shot 12 under missed the cut by one he has been great off the te uh he I still think the putter is going in the right direction and the performance has been very steady and very consistent so I go right back to oay um and I probably put him ahead of

Patrick Rogers what’s the ownership look like for for those guys question so Patrick Rogers projecting 7.2% OE 4 five yeah oh yeah so I I put OA ahead of Patrick Rogers kind of looking down the bottom of this range kind of feels like a lot of like that like okay we’re gonna go

Back to AA he’s had a good run and then you know he didn’t do enough to get me get me off of him I feel that way about Taylor pendrith right who who misses the cut at the American Express who’s been playing great has good enough history

Here Davis Thompson someone that I just kind of believe in even even going back to Sam Ryder who’s got some good history here uh in two of the last three years he’s got top 10 finishes so that that’s what I kind of get out of the bottom of

This 7K range it’s just like H you know let’s give this guy one more go yeah give it a try right I kind of I kind of feel the same way um I had uh Sam Ryder Davis Thompson on my list one guy you didn’t mention was Taylor Moore okay now

Taylor Moore we’ve only seen him once this season at the senty finished T25 kind of a you know un uninspiring but not bad performance I mean that’s just ahead of middle of the pack right so kind of blah but I feel like Taylor Moore is

A that’s the name that jumped out of me as being underpriced it feels like his potential he has a t11 here A t11 and A miscut and two starts it feels like his game could really play well played nicely at Ator Pines and it feels like his price is too low

Sixes sixes the top end of the 6K range Carl Yuan Grayson Sig Lee Hodges mad mcney who I mentioned earlier the middle of the 6K range Joe heith Justin low Nate Lashley the bottom includes Michael block Tyson Alexander Tom Whitney and Pearson Cy all right uh

If we’re spending up Greg do we have to go to this range and if we do who do we like I I think you do you could probably get away with some of the guys up near the top where there are two guys at 6900 that I really like one Grayson Sig uh

Played he stepped up nicely for me last week with a t17 at the American Express uh I really like what he’s done TI to green and he bounced back like we talked about he bounced back with a better putter performance so I like Grayson Sig um the other guy who I

Feel anytime we get a golf course where long irons are highlighted and emphasized will Gordon’s name comes up and I think it’s worth it I think it’s worth it again look what will Gordon’s done on the greens I mean you’re talking about six consecutive measured events where will Gordon’s gain Strokes putting that’s

Actually quite jarring yeah and and two non-measured events he finished this is when we were talking about him during the fall he finished t21 and T15 um the iron play looks pretty bad but again you go into these um into these proximity buckets and you start

Looking at the I think where was he one in 17 to 200 your boy ter La pendra is first 175 to 200 will Gordon is third in this field so I I am I’m I’m a big fan of that and I think it gives you great

Value in the 6K range the other one that’s kind of just like uh similar is is Joseph bramlet is is kind of like a one-trick pony and the one trick works out really well at farmers and he’s had good success here again kind of no matter what that form is is he’s

Finished 13th he made the cut in 2022 t67 and then t18 in 2021 so he’s made the cut here four straight years and it’s really just that um the ability to to extract yourself from you know thick rough this week might be wet thick rough uh and and give yourself a way to

Separate in in that perspective but um he’s $6,800 I’m not super stoked about it but somebody who tends to play well yeah a little high for a guy you’re um lean in solely on course history course fit um but I understand it I so I can’t

Fault you there Rick how about a little Val how about a one piece of uh value I’m talking way down way down keep going how I got in 62 there’s one guy I’m very curious about are you a are you a sneaker guy no okay

Are you a um oh there’s this is actually kind of interesting Um I don’t know who is it uh Rico Hoy I knew it was look um he’s made one cut on the PGA tour yeah excuse me went to University of Southern California um played some really good golf last week early on and I’m wondering if this is you know

A little inspiration maybe from Nick Dunlap I know he’s a lot older but a rookie on the PGA tour um maybe this is a a good first spot for I don’t know if he plays out of TPC Summerland but I know that he plays over there a bit and

The guys that play with him think that he is just unreal uh especially with the driver he is just a an absolute Crusher um and you see that kind of already in his metrics at least the numbers that we do have you know he’s gaining a stroke uh you know each event

Off the te but uh I I was very surprised to learn that after getting off to that hot start he missed the cut yeah but again he missed the cut and gained Strokes total yes he did you know so it it’s easy we talk about it every year at

The American Express it’s easy to miss the cut so that I don’t know exactly what he shot but I think that’s a 12 under that’s a 12 under Miss cut yeah I think it’s got to be because he gained Strokes to the field the number was 13 so yeah I think it’s got

To be 12 um so that doesn’t mean you’re playing bad golf it’s disappointing after that hot start he shot what eight under in the first round nine under something like that and then it it gets stale and you’re going home you know so look he’s

6200 he and I I think I’d be willing to take an absolute flyer on him especially if I was going to load up with the m fenos days uh and someone in the in the 10K range if I was going to go that route I might take a flyer on Rico

Hoy okay I think we’re gonna I think we’re gonna put a pin in it there Greg this is uh you know usually we go a couple minutes longer but this this is a tournament that starts in less than 48 hours so I think we should probably just

Roll with it and get this out there for the people but um the as expected the North Course is going to play or what we expect is that the North Course is going to play a little bit easier the South course is going to play more difficult

And then I I think that you are correct in kind of uh doing a lot of your analysis on the south course considering it’s going to take up 75% of the rounds yeah yeah you can almost rule out the north entirely just figure if it’s going

To work on the south it’s probably going to work a little better on the north um and that’s probably your best bet as you tackle the rest of your homework all right well get to work kids because uh homework is due early this week we will be back Tuesday for a mega

Preview pod like always and then a Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday round by round Recaps for this week’s Farmers Insurance open big thanks to producer Troy who does all the hard work behind the scenes Greg tarm is available at the real gfd and you can find me at Rick run

Good this has been the first cut we’ll catch you next Time