Bills vs. Steelers early look: How does no T.J. Watt impact Wild Card matchup?

Matt Parrino is joined by Steelers beat reporter Nick Farabaugh from SteelersNow.com. The two discuss T.J. Watt’s expected absence and what it means for the Steelers. Then they talk about the upstart Mason Rudolph and how the veteran quarterback could fare against the Bills’ defense.

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All right what’s up everybody Welcome in to the early week edition of shout a Buffalo Bills football podcast brought to you as always by Tops Friendly Markets better meals start with Tops Friendly Markets real meat and real butchers while the other stores have their meat packed in central processing

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Sreal butchers all right it is a special early week Edition because we are taking an early look at the Pittsburgh Steelers and to do so I’m bringing on Nick faraba he covers the Steelers for Steelers now.com Nick thank you so much for doing this how are you my friend I’m doing

Well uh Matt as always uh thanks for having me on here and it’s good to talk Steelers bills and honestly didn’t even think I would be talking about Steelers in a game this week so it’s it’s a it’s a weak extension I guess on the season coverage right well you never know I

Mean the the bills have had some some some funny games over the last two months uh and I know that they’re W they’ve won five in a row but it hasn’t always been pretty they’re certainly battle tested they’ played a tough schedule uh but this is a Pittsburgh

Team that just they’re pasky they find ways to win games and I think you know I want to start with Mason Rudolph because a couple weeks ago when he took over I think everybody kind of rolled their eyes and you know he came out in that

First game and made a couple of big plays I actually had uh George Pickins uh in a fantasy game that week so I was uh I was glad to see it but you know Mason Rudolph he’s made a few throws that I think have looked different from the you know iterations with the

Steelers and him in the past what have you seen and how much juice is there still left from Rudolph that we saw maybe when he started and took over I I think that’s a tough question but I do think that what’s different is he just

Gets the ball to the right spot I think that’s been the difference you know before we would talk with trabis or pick it wide receivers running wide open and George Pickins and Deontay Johnson getting open Pat Frou getting open you know the Steelers have good weapons and

They have been able to get open all season the quarterbacks just haven’t been able to find them and so I think that’s been the difference with Rudolph even from his 2019 iteration is he has just been able to be that kind of facil Itor and I do think there is some more

Meat left on that bone the Deep ball has still been a little inconsistent he’s hit that deep ball a few times to George Pickins to Deontay Johnson um but it has been a little bit wobbly been a little bit inaccurate um his accuracy is not

Elite um he doesn’t really miss a lot of guys egregiously but George pickings and Deontay Johnson have bailed him out a few times too with some really great catches um but what’s really worked with him is his calming presence his pocket presence has really stood out to me he’s

Almost unflappable in the pocket he’s very poised um and he does not move in the face of pressure um and that could be a positive and a negative um he could be statuesque at times and sometimes you wonder how he even gets the football off

Um you go back to the Seattle game and there are at least three or four throws where he gets deep balls down the field and they are caught by George Pickins or Deontay Johnson in the face of pressure for explosive plays and so if he can do

That consistently I mean that is a different level of his game he play extremely well in that Seattle game I think that was his best game saw a little bit come back I think against the Ravens but also the conditions in that game you know that was just a sleep rain

Game um and obviously it doesn’t look like the conditions are going to be that great in Buffalo either this weekend but what it was in Baltimore was a different Beast it was just raining all game it was freezing the pass game was basically neutralized by what he had and so I

Think Rudolph’s done a very nice job to just take what is given to him and then he’s kind of stepped it up with some of these really nice deep balls Under Pressure you know you look at these last three games and he’s only had to play

From behind one time uh in I think it was the second quarter against Seattle they get they kind of go up by three or seven and then 10 uh and to your point maybe his best best game to date how do you feel like if you if you look at this

Game at home in Buffalo um you know obviously the home crowd is going to be likely a factor in the game how do you feel like he is poised and the Steelers offense is poised to potentially play from behind if they do go down and score

To early in this game yeah we haven’t seen it I think that’s the big question but when they did go down in Seattle obviously that crowd the the 12 in Seattle is a really big factor he drove him right down the field for a touchdown

Um made that was when he made one of those big throws um to George pickings it was on a third and seven got a double egg at mug stood in there threw it to Pickins down the sideline on a corner route for a big play and then they end

Up going to score and take the lead into a half um so he has been a guy that has stood up to that pressure now I don’t know how he’s going to stand up to the elements plus that I think that’s something to think about right maybe he

Doesn’t have you know when he gets into third and long I think that’s that’s what we don’t necessarily know about completely because what the Steelers have done really well even when they went down in Seattle is they really run the football well and they pound the air

Out of the football more than any other team since he took over no team has run the football on more percentage of their snaps than the Steelers they run the ball on 61% of their snaps and for good reason that’s their formula right now and so I think it’s it’s it’s tough to

Know how they’re going to be if they come back if they’re forced to put the ball in the air I think that is a bad thing for them because what they want to do is they want to ball control they want to dominate the to of possession

They want to keep Josh Allen off the field and they want to run the ball down your throat and get into the end zone for seven that’s what they did against Seattle you go you look at what Gino Smith did that game and you’re saying how did they only score 23 points he

Completely torched their defense which was completely underman in that game and the reason is is because Naji Harris Jaylen Warren just absolutely torched him on the ground and so if you can get them behind and force the ball into Mason Rudolph’s hands I think that becomes a little bit

More of a dangerous proposition because this offensive line has not picked up blitzes well has not picked up stunts well this season and so I don’t think they would respond well if they got down significantly if we’re talking three or seven you know with the Run game still

In play I don’t think that’s an issue but if we’re talking you know 14 I think we we get into some issue here you look at the fumbles um and obviously that was a mess uh of a game on on Saturday so I don’t know if it’s

Safe to extrapolate too much from that but they had two fumbles that they didn’t lose in the game against the Seattle Seahawks so you’re talking about two games eight fumbles and this has been a very opportunistic bills defense playing its best football over the last

Eight weeks um how big of a concern is that piece of it is just on the road in a tough environment against a really you know top five defense that has been taking the ball away how big of a concern is that huge concern and it’s usually the Steelers just doing weird

Things I mean you look at the fumbles in Seattle Deontay Johnson catches a comeback route is about to separate down the sideline for yak and just drops the football and luckily he his foot was out of bounds when he touched it or it would have been a fumble Pickins on that ball

I talked about that deep Corner route just drops the football after running it would have been maybe a touchdown if he hadn’t uh it’s just weird things and then you look at what they did in uh Baltimore snap exchanges like just handoffs like it’s not even you know

Guys necessarily just fumbling the ball Jaylen Warren did have two fumbles in that Baltimore game usually a guy that doesn’t fumble the wall a lot so that was a big uh kind of a big anomaly I don’t expect that to continue with Jaylen Warren but we’re talking about

Fumbles it’s weird and I’ll tell you one other big thing I would point out Mason Cole the center’s been a really bad Snapper this year where the snaps have been all over the place they’re to the side they’re over they’re down there have been significant fumbles year in

The Arizona game where they were it was 17 to10 Arizona and the Steelers were driving and the ball just gets put right at the feet of Mitch trabis and they lose that they go for a touchdown it’s 24 to 10 obviously they end up losing that game that has been something that

Is significant and then I think the other thing that is is also a little concerning is Mason Rudolph got away with one um against the Ravens to Marcus Williams should have had a pick six probably on the first drive of the game so keep an eye on that but ball security

For me is a big issue issue just because we have seen them do it and be different people do it in odd ways it’s a it’s an offense that is not well coach and I think that is something uh to look at let’s flip gears here to the defensive

Side of the ball and obviously what’s made headlines here the last couple of days is TJ watt likely out for this game dealing with the the knee injury coming off that uh injury in the Ravens game what is this defense without TJ watt like just if you’re breaking it down

What are teams scheming against and how much do they lose I know he’s one of the best players in the NFL if not the best player in the NFL but if you can paint that picture what does Pittsburgh lose when he’s not out there I mean they lose

What is the Crux of their defense this is not a great defense behind him um largely due to injury uh they have lost a lot of their safety core now we don’t know what the safety room is going to look like Deonte ky’s back from suspension but will Minka Fitzpatrick

Play still dealing with the knee injury he said he would but I’ve been told by players before they were going to play and then they don’t Trenton Thompson his backup is injured um Kean O’Neal is on injured reserve so I mean we really don’t know what’s going like Eric row

Got banged up too a little bit in that uh Ravens game like there are a lot of injuries in that safety room which might be actually the more under talked about spot because usually what they’ve done this year is they’ve relied upon that front to mask what’s happened in the

Safety room the linebacker room they lost Cole hul and Kanan Alexander El Landon Roberts will play but he’s playing on one arm he basic playing with the torn PE I mean it’s a really hard proposition to kind of rely on your front without TJ watt so what they’re

Losing is just a lot of ability to take pressure off the back end and for Josh Allen that’s got to be you know he’s gota be looking at his chops at that because this is not a fast group anyways in the back you know Joey Porter Jr and

If makea Fitzpatrick plays they can run but you’re talking about you know 34y old Patrick Peterson um you’re talking about Damonte KY you’re talking about Eric Rose none of these guys are burners and at the second level it’s the same way they don’t have burners so the speed

Isn’t there so if I were buffalo I would put them side to side force them to tackle after the catch it can be tough there and so when they lose TJ watt they lose the ability to force Josh Allen you know to play chaotic ball they lose uh

The ability to force offenses to get the football out quickly and not push the ball down the field I think that’s been a big thing they haven’t been able to push the ball down the field but most of the explosive plays they have given up have been just allowing Yak they just

Don’t have Pursuit speed to the football and so when they lose TJ watt they lose an ability to get to the quarterback and and kind of force offenses to do something a little different and so we’ll see kind of how Marcus golden and Nick herck do they’re they’re good one

Too I like them as backups I mean I like them even in spot starts um we’ve never seen them though at at kind of this big rate you know this big volume of snaps that they’re going to get this week but they’ve been productive so we’ll see if

They can still get pressure it’s a big spot for Alex hymith as well but I think it’s going to expose the speed on the back end yeah I want to get to that in a second but High Smith I want to dial in on him a little bit more only because

You you look at his season he plays a ton of snaps for them 69 pressures according to PFF uh the seven sacks uh this season 50 quarterback hurries I mean he he is a you if you just watch a Pittsburgh Steelers game and like I went

Back and watched the Ravens game and I know that I don’t know how many backup line linemen were in for the Ravens but it really jumped out at how explosive he is out of his stance and he’s taken a a step forward this season obviously the the sack numbers

Aren’t there but if you look at the pressure numbers they’re better than even a a season AG go at less snaps so I think from a Bill’s Perspective game planning without TJ watt you can really focus a lot of your energy on taking Alex heith out of this game with

Chip loocks and you know they’ve done that multiple times this year when they’ placed faced Elite Edge rushers Max Crosby probably the best example of that but can Alex heith have a explosive game without TJ wat I I think that’s a big question but he’s a better version of

Himself than it was last year as you alluded to and last year without TJ watt even when he wasn’t this good he still was the guy that consistently got pressure consistently won and he’s a better version of himself now he’s got more moves in his toll box I think he

Kind of understands how to use his explosive this more to round that Arc he’s a guy that can make you feel him even when you get chips and there have been teams before this year that have decided to let watt just go and instead get to heith because heith in terms of

Snap to pressure is quicker than TJ wat is um he gets there in about 2.45 seconds which is I think third in the NFL this year he is a guy that gets quick pressure when he gets pressure and so you better be able to kind of slow

Him down because he has different moves and different kind of tools in his bag to get around those chips he has dealt with them before they move him around a little bit too so they might flip him on sides they might put him over the middle um they might do different things to

Kind of get him free um so I think Alex heith is a guy that can absolutely get pressure it’s just can he finish on sacks um you know can he get a force fumble here or there and more importantly what can Nick hering and Marcus golden do on the other side if

That happens or what can they do on the interior you know cam Hayward has been Bang up all year with this groin injury he had he’s never been 100% but he’s fighting through at at 34 years old they have Keanu beton and Larry Ogen jobi Benton’s a really good rookie probably

Their best pass rushing interior lineman honestly so if heith gets that magnetism in that Focus it’s gonna open up spots for other guys but I do think Alex houth has a chance to to still make noise just because I haven’t seen a team completely take him out of the game with what he

Has done even when they chip him and we have seenam teams give him that respect where even they have left kind of top guys when they when TJ wat has face top guys or even really above average guys they have focused their spots on heith and heith has still gotten to the

Quarterback yeah great stuff um you you mentioned Porter Jr earlier um you know Bill’s fans very familiar with Levi Wallace and you know when he was in Buffalo I feel like teams really tried to throw it him test him week in and week out you have Patrick Peterson on

The back end who’s made making that transition to SA what do you make of of this secondary and if the pressure isn’t consistent up front how big of a uh concern is that back end facing what’s become a really reliable Target in Dalton conade Stefon dicks who Diggs who seems to be getting

It kind of put together here over the last couple of weeks and then Khalil shakiru is this like kind of upstart uh had himself a really good game he works out of the slot he can kind of go everywhere how concerning is that back end for the Steelers against this this

Uh uh playmaker group yeah very concerning you know as I said the speed just is not there so if the pressure is not getting there these guys aren’t going to cover consistently and it’s and with cancade specifically they’ve had a lot of trouble covering tight ends um this kind of started early

In November um you know Trey McBride for the for the Cardinals kind of exposed this and then Hunter Henry went off the next week and they really haven’t been able to stop tight ends consistently you know no off Fant for the Seahawks had done basically nothing all season then

Has his best game of the year against the Steelers um Drew samples had a few nice games against them Isaiah likely even though it was you know the Ravens backups still B burst them down the seams for the only touchdown this is a tough match up for the Steelers and it’s

Because I think even if Porter takes away Diggs which I think can happen because Joey por Jr’s gone against Jamar Chase gone against T Higgins um and they get their work kind of against you know Levi Wallace and Shannon Sullivan and other guys when they get their stats if

Joey Porter Jr is on digs for say 57 of 57 uh I think that you know that he can limit Diggs so I think that can happen even if Diggs is a great route Runner I’ve seen Joey Porter Jr do it with remarkable consistency he’s having a

Fantastic season and so I do think he can limit Stefan Diggs I’m not sure who covers Dalton concade I’m not sure who limits khil Shakir if Gabe Davis plays two I think that’s an issue I don’t know if Gabe Davis will play with that KN injury but he torched them last year

Down the field too they don’t have the speed to keep up with a guy like him I’m even like you know a guy like Trent sherfield has has given him trouble this year like just in that similar Arch type um so this is a secondary that’s just

Battered now if if Minka is back I think that is a different kind of ability they could put Minka Fitzpatrick on Dalton con gate that could be something that changes how this game works and it depends on where they put Patrick Peterson too you know Patrick Peterson

Moves back to outside corner slot kind of you know versatile guy that plays outside and that takes Le Levi Wallace off the field that does boost their secondary uh to me because I would expect if Minka Fitzpatrick plays your three safety set which they do a lot

They do a lot of three safety nickel would end up being Fitzpatrick KY row which isn’t a very fast group but is a very veteran Ball Hawk oriented group and so you know Allen puts One In Harm’s Way they can make the play um they can be opportunistic but they’re not going

To hold up a lot even with Minka out there they don’t have the linebackers to do it they’re kind you know Patchwork at the second level and so we’ll see what it’s going to do but this is not a good secondary right now it’s going to be

Their biggest kind of project on defense this off season um but it’s really going to be about getting that pressure and maybe making you know if Josh Allen makes that one bad throw or that one bad decision Steelers are gonna have to make sure that they capitalize on it and they

They are good at that they’re they’re they’re a ball hucking group even if they’re not a fast group um you know James Cook has had a a really great breakout second season when he he was handed uh that number one uh running back role I’m curious you know historically you think about the

Pittsburgh Steelers and it’s this team that’s super physical good against the run I mean if you bring up their numbers I think they’re they’re ranked ninth uh in Pro Football Focus in terms of overall grading against the run this season have any teams been able to open

Up their pass game with the Run game against Pittsburgh is that a strength uh where they kind of lean on that going against up against another team’s Run game yeah no it’s usually the other way around it’s usually the passing game open up the Run game and the Run game

Has never been a massive issue for the Steelers the stats don’t tell the whole story but they really haven’t allowed a ton of consistent running um usually you know when they get allow 130 like all of that comes on like a 50 yard burst which

Is an issue in of itself that you give up explosive plays on the ground but they don’t usually allow consist consistant yards on the ground when they do is when they’re out on the field for a long time and they just get beat down like look at that Colts game that game

In Indianapolis where they just ran the ball ran the ball ran the ball ran the ball late in the game that can happen to them but when they’re kind of rested in the Steelers offense plays balls ball control and keeps them off the field usually it’s not a huge issue now

Obviously that was with TJ Watt on the field so that is a big wrinkle and we don’t know how good of a a run Defender Nick hering is I know that Marcus golden can defend the Run extremely well but Nick herbick is this undersized 230lb Edge rusher very explosive very bendy um

Kind of like your sub package rusher um that is really fun you know kind of like a Josh uch Bryce huffish type but a young version of those guys um so he has got a bright future it’s just we don’t know what his third three down ability

Is he doesn’t play a lot on three Downs he plays a lot on subpackages and different looks there so I think that’s an issue if they run right at him but this is not a consistent issue but it is issue an issue in spurts and those explosive plays are definitely

Concerning whether that’s Josh Allen kind of breaking loose on on a run or James Cook breaking loose I think all of that is a concern for this Steelers defense but usually what happens is it gets opened up by the passing game and they they’ve limited guys like Lamar

Jackson you know when they face Lamar Jackson the first time it wasn’t the issue the Run game was not the issue in that game in week five it was the past game and I know they held him to 10 points but go back and watch that tape

And watch the Ravens put up an all-time bad performance from the receiving group so when they face running quarterbacks too where that can run and kind of scramble that usually hasn’t been too much of a bigger factor that has hurt them in the Run game so I think if if

They can pass I think if Buffalo can hit some balls downfield over the intermediate parts of the field they can start to open up the Run game a little bit too interesting um last one I wanted to hit you with um you know Calvin Austin he looks just poised to kind of

Break something I don’t know if it’s going to be on offense I don’t know if it’s going to be in the return game you know how excited are they about him and how big of a you know from a preparation standpoint somebody that teams have to

Prepare for with his speed on teams and when his balls in his hand on offense yeah he’s been a guy that has you know seemed like he is one one tackle away from breaking one um had a big return against Baltimore you know he’s a guy

That has kind of that vision and burst to just go if he gets a lane he’s gone um we haven’t really seen it yet just not completely popped just yet um because the Steeler special teams units are are pretty bad at blocking to be quite honest with you he doesn’t usually

Get many lanes he creates a lot of it for himself um but he’s a guy that I I think you know runs forward doesn’t have a lot of wasted movement I think that allows him to potentially hit the big one then on offense you know they started to integrate him a little bit

More um they have started to kind of get him jet sweeps pop passes screens um it has worked out that way um one of the big misses on film that that Mason Rudolph has had was against Seattle where Calvin Austin just beats his guy on a double

Move would have been a touchdown and he just went for the checkdown but Calvin Austin can separate it’s inconsistent but he can do it um but he is kind of an interesting third weapon they have they don’t really have a a third wide receiver that they rely upon

Consistently he’s kind of the main guy Allan Robinson plays more than him but he’s kind of like a a glorified fullback HB it’s a very weird way they use alen Robinson he’s blocks a lot basically doesn’t do much in the receiving game so Calvin Austin has kind of been this

Explosive foil to Allan Robinson that they can do these things with and so I’ve seen them do you know more in practice with them that hasn’t come into the game so would not surprise me if they they have some special things for him and kind of mix up his route tree a

Little bit more um but I if I were buffalo I I wouldn’t be too particularly scared about him um special team specifically I could be but honestly this more the bigger special team’s problem is Miles kbu who has had like three block punts this season and leads

The NFL in Block punts over the last three seasons um I think that’s the bigger issue make sure you know your pump protections on because he’s a guy that has changed games by doing that and so that where I would focus my energy on special teams um but yeah Calvin

Austin’s an inconsistent explosive option he can break one it just depends I I still think he needs another year you know kind of getting in the NFL before he becomes a significant option but listen he he’s been getting closer and closer to breaking one on punts so

It could definitely happen if the bills cover a kick wrong great stuff um Bills fans if you want to become a shout Insider text 716 528 6727 twoe free trial 3.99 a month after that the shout text line is brought to you by Carrie C buer attorney with the law offices of

Francis M lro located at 237 Main Street in Buffalo New York if you were someone you know is seriously injured give them a call at 716 85212 34 or check out lola.com Nick this was great great stuff great insight to get us started uh on a big playoff Wild

Card Weekend let everybody know where they can find your stuff this week uh while they you know kind of keep track of everything going on in Pittsburgh yeah you can follow me on X farab fbx Twitter whatever um I can’t believe I just called it X actually it should be

At farall FB that’s my my last name and FB I reading the stuff at Steelers now going to be more coming out of the locker room and everything here soon Mike tomin talks today so we’ll hear from him as well and kind of all that coming out so make sure to check all

That out great stuff there he is Nick farabaugh Steelers now.com check it all out we’ll be back with plenty more episodes this week uh we see