The NFL Wild Card weekend is here, and The Athletic Football Show is previewing it all, so buckle up!
0:00 Browns vs. Texans
18:49 Dolphins vs. Chiefs
38:37 Steelers vs. Bills
49:09 Packers vs. Cowboys
1:10:49 Rams vs. Lions
1:32:51 Eagles vs. Buccaneers
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Wild Card preview a fantastic slate of games everything every game has something even the games that are a little bit underwhelming because the trajectory of the teams there’s disaster potential that really has has piqued my interest we’ll get to some of that let’s start with this is like a house money
Bowl this a coach of the year Bowl two teams that probably shouldn’t be here Browns at Texans massively overachieved the Browns understandably K stansky is the betting favor for Coach of the Year wi 11 games with five quarterbacks the defense has been one of the most fun
Units in football to watch some one that snuck up on a lot of people even you and I who were optimistic about what the Browns defense could look like coming of the year did not expect them to set success rate records like they have this season and then on the other side CJ
Strad has truly become one of the most exciting fun players in the league already and we are just finishing up his rookie year everything about the Houston Texans feels different now than it did a year ago in only a good way so this no matter what happens I think a lot of
People are very happy with the trajectory of these two seasons yeah it’s one of these I felt like I nailed a take and also missed it at the same time it was like oh yeah Browns defense will be pretty good they’ll be interesting honorable mention Not Top 10 honorable
Mention felt like that was like enough there okay all right yeah CJ Stout QB one yeah sure I think he’ll be all right you know like he he’ll be okay not sure what his up side is okay watch it being already probably the idealized version of what I thought his
Upside could be as a rookie and okay where can this go and really playing like a top eight guy no matter how you shake it eye test or St I think I think my the way that I framed it in our post pre-draft pod was is there a 25% chance
He’s Joe burrow and I was excited about him right that that was me being like I think this guy’s the best quarterback in the draft I think people are underrating his upside is there a 25 5% chance he’s Joe burrow and he already looks like this I was I rewatched my uh pre-draft
Video I did on on our YouTube channel make sure to check it out but at the end I did the little Pro comparison I sometimes don’t really like the comparison stuff like it’s like these are all wonky and I kind of argue it how
I want to so I kind of said what is his upside could be is like a deck plus like okay but that’s upside that’s why I thought okay but that’s really I consider that you know top sixish quarterback okay but that’s like year four year five maybe year six not you’re
One and that’s what he looks like right now one of the most Polished passers in the entire league some of the best footwork and one of the most accurate quarterbacks literally I’ve ever seen and I’m not being like I’m not just like saying that truly one of the most
Accurate quarterbacks I’ve ever seen for each one of these games I want to do kind of you know when you watch a season of TV or an episode of TV and then you’ll get the previously on I want to do a previously on for each of these
Because I think there are aspects to these teams that now that the kind of playoff if of Sauron has gone to them that most casual fans probably aren’t thinking about and with the Browns I want to reset what we think about the Browns a little bit especially on
Offense because we know what the Browns defense has been that’s gotten a ton of publicity the Browns offense has taken a fascinating turn I guess five fascinating turns over the course of this year when you think stefansky Browns you think really good running game and that’s what’s carried them
Great offensive line well here’s the problem with that the Browns running game this year has been objectively bad they are 28th in EPA per Rush since Nick chub got hurt a quarter of their runs 25ish per are going for negative yardage which is 31st in the NFL only the Jags
Are worse so they’ve been bad running the ball objectively and the offensive line is in tatters we’re on offensive tackle like five and six Geron Christian playing left tackle James Hudson thei third is playing right tackle we we’re deep into the depth Shard at this point
And I think it’s hurt them we can get into that in terms of the Run pass splits since Joe flacko took over the Browns have thrown the ball on 65% of their early Downs incredible that is the number one rated in the league that’s number one I don’t even know Mahomes has
Touched that because that’s 65% twoth thirds of the time and it makes sense because the running game has not been there for them as a consistent bit of offense and they’ve trusted flacko they’ve said where to live with the highs and the lows because we think
That’s the best version of who we are and I tend to agree with them so this is and this isn’t even just a running game thing weeks 1 through 12 they were at 49.6% early down pass rate and this is Dick chub was hurt for a good chunk of
This so this is mostly a flacko thing which I find absolutely fascinating that we’ve arrived here let him fling it what let Flaco cook uh no but it it’s it makes sense because even just the running backs well obviously the offensive line injuries are going to be
Part of that but going from Nick sha you know potential All Pro candidate to Jerome Ford who I liked as an auxiliary back in a running back committee or a strong number two with a guy like Nick chub he’s very boom busty uh and Cincinnati was kind of like this he can
Kind of run in the back of his line has to be clean for him but he can get on a Runway and go so that kind of though is what this kind of works for this offense right now without you know obviously they starting quarterback or quarterback two or quarterback three or quarterback
Four and obviously without Nick chub is what’s be boom busty what’s be high variance and leanard our defense rather than them being stagnant and trying nickel and dime no let’s try and create that’s what explosive plays are that’s what I I try to emphasize on these is that those are several first downs
Created at one play as opposed to a successful play which was maybe five yards on first down you know four yards on second down or something like that seven yards on second down what’s create four first downs in just one chunk so rather than have to be meticulous and I
Didn’t realize this until I was writing about the Rams and lions which we’ll get to later no team has run five and seven step dropbacks more this season than the Browns they are getting back there and launching it it’s play action and go balls man or play action deep balls
That’s it corners and posts and whatever it works with Amari Cooper and also it’s a nice balance how they’ve supplemented their run game and their pass game their shot play action game is some screens a lot of tight end screens that that is a of the Kevin stansky experience and has
Been for years just cranked it up just crank it up a little bit but it’s kind of fun like they’ve made this Frankenstein’s monster offense and it kind of worked for them because they pair it with one an all-time defense really let’s call it that like one of
The best defenses we’ve seen in 23 years what’s interesting about the tackle situation is that a lot of teams if they had injured tackles if you had backup tackles in the game your biggest concern would be pass protection and those guys have actually held up better in pass
Protection than they’ve been as run blockers because because they’re undersized so they can hold up okay on the edge it’s not great it’s not how you plan it but it’s hurt them more in the Run game than it actually has with them dropping back and I think that’s
Partially why they’re okay leaning into this version of the offense even though they have backup tackles on the other side Houston we know their offense we know what CJ strout has done we we’ve talked a lot about the offensive formula and why they’ve been successful Houston’s defense is full of a lot of
No-name guys so this is if you’re watching in this game they going to be some pieces on the defense especially in the spine where this is where the Gap still exists between a Houston Texans team that stumbles into 10 wins in the AFC South and a Houston Texans team that
Is going to replicate the types of defenses we saw in San Francisco and can compete for championships that that still is the gap to me yeah there’s a uh certain BYU linebacker size Gap that that this defense is missing and and his and his running mate in at the line back
But that’s what this defense asks these that position to do the linebacker position to do they have to play be a two-way player run pass play the play action play the screens and right now they they try to fill it up but it’s tough It’s not a lot of linebackers out
There but that’s what this defense asks but where they win is up front will Anderson was both of our picks for Defensive Rookie of the Year I I I don’t think that should be controversial I think he he had finished with what seven sacks but he’s had the second highest
Pressure rate among all defensive rookies since 2019 only beond Nick Bosa so but they also have who’s been out lately is Jonathan grenard or gr grard grenard grard I don’t know it’s not greenard I know that so it’s grenard or grenard okay someone said grenard the
Other day again when I hear that also my brain just stops that’s why if you want to know I’m bad with names but grenard had 11 sacks this year H but he had the same pressure rate this year as Assan reic he was ninth in QB hits per pass
Rush snap same as miles Garrett and the P pass rushers on either side were Trey Trey Hendrickson and aeden Hutchinson so on top of that that helps what is the biggest neutralizer a good pass rush so they do have that they can create pressure just with rushing four when
These guys are all healthy they’ve been quite good at stopping the run this year believe it or not the first time you watched this team was last week against the Colts yes they’ve actually been good stopping the Run believe me I promise but the big weakness of this defense and
We’ll talk about plenty in the next couple minutes is along the spine and when they attack def offenses attack that spine with play action and shot plays and stuff down the field and that’s kind of what the Browns did the last time they matched up and something
They’ll probably lean into in this game let’s talk about that last matchup what do you think are the main things you can learn by going back and rewatching the game between these two teams the first time CJ Stout is really valuable uh helps that’s number one thing uh yeah
And no Will Anderson and no Jonathan grard in their last match up it’s only a couple weeks ago uh but it came there’s a lot of third and Longs there’s a lot of Joe flacko winging it there’s a lot of play action and a lot of shot plays
Uh but I was I thought it was interesting was the Browns couldn’t get anything on the ground even without Anderson and gard and that’s kind of notable because okay if we’re gonna create a lot of third and Longs again that’s gonna be a high variance game and
That’s gonna be very volatile so I that’s gonna be they won last time but Flaco did have turnovers remember so it’s like that is the give and take of this and I think that’s what this side of the ball is going to really like feel
Like yeah and I think the other thing to consider with the Texans defense and how this all played out is the non Derek Stingley defensive backs were just getting torched in this game what’s and if you look at the way that the Texas play their DBS first of all Stingley has
Played in an insane level since he came back from injury he has been so so good since getting back into the lineup and he had a couple up and down moments his first couple games back but he has settled in he looks phenomenal his ball scills are great he is I’m really
Excited about where he’s head plays exclusively on the left side exclusively he played Four snaps at right cornerback this season three of them came in this game so I’m I’m wondering and and the Texans did the Browns did a very good job of keeping Amari Cooper away from him if you look
At all the big plays essentially that happened in that game they happened against Steven Nelson and all the backup Corners over there do the Texans keep him on that side or are they comfortable letting him move with Amari Cooper more often than three snaps I wonder if this
Is something they might be okay tweaking for the playoffs I don’t think they will but it is something that I would probably keep an eye on yeah and it might be an adjustment thing where it’s like okay we’re getting torched and so maybe they try to see how live with it
Again they have recent film to use so I think that’s always just uh always interesting to see what the change UPS come off of that but it’s worth noting because that’s how they’re gonna get attacked that’s that’s something they’re gonna have to prepare for because the Browns win for the first time knowing
That they can get they can do that the first time most important aspect to you to when the Texans have the ball of when the Texans have the ball all right first off it’s what the Texans offensive line and they’re PL playing for Miles Garrett in the pass rush that that’s the first
Thing um if it’s Charlie heck or George Fant at right tackle they better be ready and Michael deer at Center should be ready it was it’s interesting they bumped ju scrs out to left guard I Really they drifted Scruggs to be a center so it’s funny how they’re they’re
Getting their best five out there you know that’s what they’re trying but strad like most quarterbacks he’s really inconsistent against pressure that’s how he was in college that’s how what’s carried over he does a good job of mitigating it but he can still beat up and down um but the last time they
Played like miles Garrett usually uh almost lines up on over the left tackle almost every snap like 80% of the time it’s it’s higher than that it’s actually like in the 90s 90s okay yes this time or the last time they played against the Browns Charlie heck was making his
Second start I believe they lined him up over the right tackle uh two-thirds of the snap about 66% of the snaps yes uh so I think we’re they better be ready for some chip help over there they better really be getting that right tackle some help that’s where a lot of
Pressures are created because the left tackle for the Texans is larmy tunel who’s a allpro caliber player and played like that this year two things that I’m paying attention to one how do the Browns line up against some of these heavier Personnel looks that the Texans use I I found this
Number staggering okay the Browns have faced 143 snaps of 12 Personnel this year okay that’s 27th in the NFL they’ve had eight guys in the Box against 12 Personnel on 90 snaps this year that’s the fourth most so we’re talking 90 of 143 snaps so when you put
Your bodies out there they tend to match with loaded boxes and if you’re going to play like that and play cover three we talked about this last week with CJ Stroud against cover three when they’re playing against the Colts can you take some shots out of that heavy Personnel
Even with tank Dell out you still got Nico Collins no Brown should probably be back for this game Robert Woods so you’re going to have his weapons back and what does that look like the other thing to consider and this is something I got from talking to an offensive
Coordinator you played against the Browns this year he said the Browns defense is worse on the road and I hadn’t looked at these splits yet and it’s not drastic but it’s different enough the Browns had a 70% success rate at home this year 70% it’s insane yeah that’s it’s insane they allowed 3.7
Yards per play at home this season 3.7 on the road weeks 1 through 17 so excluding the game that didn’t matter seventh in defensive success rate not crazy yeah but that Gap is notable exactly and that’s because this team is so dependent on pressure and penetration that when they’re
Operating on a silent count and they’re moving with the ball like the offense is and the advantage gets evaporated they’re just going to destroy you but if you can play with cadence a little bit and you can contain them just as the snap of the ball happens they become a
Slightly different defense so I think that’s worth taking into account as they go on the road to play this game against Houston n great point they uh it’s you see him get off that’s miles Garrett that’s he’s going to be he is very explosive but knowing that the offense
Has to go on a head Bop or quarterback’s foot is very beneficial as opposed to having to listen to hard counts and and try to not get drawn off of that so no that’s a great point to bring out we already talked about the Browns offense and some of the issues here anything
Else you’re watching on that side of the ball when he when Cleveland has it just the reiterate it get ready for the ball getting launched over the heads of the Texas Defenders uh in battling in the linebackers or just making putting the linebackers in a bind um the Texans
Defense is the third worst team defending play action this year in terms of EPA per play only teams they’re ahead of are the Chargers and Broncos one of those teams fire their head coach the other one give up 70 points this year so uh and they face the six most snaps of
Play action so teams know they can get after them also they’ve given up the six most EPA per play on throws of 10 or more air yards and they’re 26 success rate against the roow of tenore air yards again that kind of 10 to 20 yard
Area that that middle of the field is just going to be that’s what they have to go for and that’s what flacko loves to attack so you might see some in joku get it’s perfect alignment of where a team’s weaknesses are and where A team’s even if it’s not strengths for the
Browns relatively it’s what they want to do the way the Browns want to play aligns well with where the Texans have been poor supporting peace in this game you think people should be watching or know about oh man I’m going because I just mentioned those safeties so many times
Jimmy Ward is out which was a Texans the Texans safety from 49ers so Jaylen Petri is a defensive back they signed or drafted last year I believe in the second round I’ve always liked him more as a slot player one of these Dynamic young slots a Blitzer I believe Bears
Fans got introduced to him last year uh he went nuts last year he was Bonkers in that game but as a Blitzer run Defender just a dynamic player he’s playing on the back end which he’s more okay at he can have some highlights but he also can
Have some lapses they’re also playing a back a guy not Jimmy Ward back there that’s all you need to know but how he plays against the run and pass is going to really matter because I think the Browns are going to try and put him and the linebackers in the bind
I like in joku talk because for that same reason that spine of the Texans defense the linebackers have been rough in coverage Blake Cashman who they signed for nothing has been much better than the other guys but if you look at what Christian Harris has done in some
Of those moments all of the misdirection uh Gap scheme runs the GU slicing across the formation the misdirection you’re going to see with some of the tight end screens leak plays they’re going to be a lot of ways that I think the Browns try to take advantage of the linebackers and
The two safeties you mentioned jayen Petri DeAndre Houston Carson is stepping in for Jimmy Warden has been we we’ve all had DeAndre Houston Carson on our team at some point and it just kind of speaks to the lack of how where this team is in the team building process and
How not far along they actually are the fact that some of these weaknesses are still pretty apparent he’s a type of player that’s the when this guy is on five rosters or four rosters or they had to start a team had to start them for two games or something like that and he
Gets torch or something like that they use your phrase again it is a uh Canary and a you know a bad roster coal mine like not bad roster I shouldn’t say shouldn’t say that but a holy roster Coal Mine a roster in progress let’s rer in progress roster in progress again
This was the joke these were the Madden 76ers this was the team that was all 76 overall guys throughout their whole roster so the fact that they’re even they won their division is just remarkable couple injury things take into consideration Grant delpit who has missed the last several games for the
Browns he is still out with a injury even though he’s come off ir and Denzel Ward suffered injury this week during practice and now there’s a question about whether he is going to play and we’re talking about a pretty high octane Texans passing game so that
Is something to keep an eye on as we get a little bit closer to the game yeah next one here Dolphins going to Kansas City very cold day at Arrowhead that we’re about to embark on this feel feels like a massive game for both of these
Franchises based on what is at stake and where they both are you know the Chiefs if they lose this game if they lose a wild card game where they’re favored at home it’s really the bottoming out of this season it’s the low point of what has already been a
Frustrating year and we just don’t expect that from them you know this is a team that we just expect to be a playoff fixture and how they feel right now feels so different than just what we’re used to when it comes to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes so how they navigate
This space where they’re no longer the Titan in this game and they’re no longer The Monster at the End of the Road I’m interested in that and for the Dolphins this was supposed to be a year where they pushed the chips in if you look at the way they restructured contracts how
Aggressive they were the jayen Ramsey trade look at their cap next year I’m sure there’s money that they can move around but they really wanted to build a championship caliber team this season in the last year before they have to make a pretty big decision about what’s going
To happen with Tua and if they lose this game which it they very well might they’re banged up they’re underdogs on the road they going to be some pretty hard questions about what comes next and about what the next Act of the this Mike McDaniel Dolphins team looks like yeah
They they have a huge potential Pivot Point with make and it’s I’m just interesting what they think of how they want to get out of this because like you said the Bradley TR trade jayen Ramsey trade shoot just a trade for Tyreek Hill in the first place this team has just
Been going but push push push push push and which I respect by the way I like it you got a quarterback got a rookie deal let’s put the pedal on the floor and they have an identity and it was working they have a top-notch defensive coordinator you know the defense C
Revamp but it’s like oh man you just feel bad this team you we were in the pre-show and you pulled up the injury report and you just like it’s just that’s what stinks is how this offense was going Supernova in the first six weeks and then now it just it just kind
Of still very good still has moments of great it just has that you know again we lose the Venom like did like like we say last year Tua gets hurt this year two is healthy the whole time and it just that’s why it kind of just stinks it’s
Was like oh I wanted to see just everything just fully go for 17 weeks see 18 weeks see what the adjustments that you can make hit the playoffs fully formed instead it’s just like as soon as the defense gets solved the offense starts getting hurt it’s just they just
Can never get that balance all the way for the entire season yep that’s exactly what it’s felt like and last year was because two it was gone this is because everyone else seems to be gone or banged up even the guys who are playing in this
Game or could play in this game Waddle’s banged up uh Tron Armstead if you look at the injury report he has three different things that he’s dealing with Javon Holland is listed on the injury report with knees his his knees are what’s bothering him he may not play in
This game so listen javon’s a lot younger than us but reading that injury report like oh that’s how I feel every day my my left knee’s a wreck like because I’ve had surgeries on and stuff like that but like a week and a half ago
I just swelled up and I had no I had no idea why it was like what did I do I didn’t 35 buddy three days after I played basketball so it wasn’t that like doing basketball so I was like what did I do now it’s gone down but I was like
This is what this is what’s going on my knees hurt our previously on the dolphins being banged up is really what’s important to know about them and I think I think the the transformation in the defense when they were healthy is important to acknowledge they were a defense that were struggling to figure
It out over the first let’s say six weeks of this season they really hit their stride as we got into the middle meet of the year and then before everybody got hurt near the end before losing Bradley chub Jaylen Phillips talk about bull safey is being injured Jerome
Baker is hurt so many different guys have gone down for them xaven Howard but the defense really was playing in an elite level and six weeks ago I think that’s probably why you could have talked yourself into this team being a real threat in the playoffs and it’s
Harder to get there now on the flip side the chief’s offense we’ve talked a lot about it I think I think it’s important for people to acknowledge why the chief’s offense is struggling beyond the quality of their receivers and that’s something that you’ve paid a lot of
Attention to this year I have I was like shy go no they’re gonna be fine but they gotta figure this out and they didn’t figure it out and what this is is not their receivers it’s a little bit the young receivers and a little bit it
Doesn’t help it does not help but why there’s that feeling of inconsistencies and why it feels like that drop is so devastating just okay those drops have happened before with these guys like why is feels so devastating this year is the Run game sucks and it is I mean truly a
Bad Run game which is that is the most startling thing about this offense more than anything else it’s gone from Andy Reid with this time with Mahomes has had essentially a top five offense every year success rate or really a top seven I believe but success rate EPA per play
Yards per play they don’t run the ball a lot but they’re hyper efficient when they do that was the investment especially last year oh yeah the the Super Bowl was the greatest example of that they just the Rock at will when they wanted to right now there’s so many
Third and logs and before when those third and logs happened Mahomes could work as magic a couple times a game but that’s it a couple times a game not seven of those a game eight of those a game and that comes from the penalties that’s from the new offensive lineman at
Times from The Young receivers at times that already starts them behind the chains or behind the sticks and then on top of it the Run game can’t bail them out uh Jaan Taylor’s been inconsistent at best Trey Smith took a huge step back this year it’s been startling Donovan
Smith is Donovan Smith he’s been hurt as well he kind of coming back I believe and on top of it they don’t have a running back uh Isaiah Pacho that makes him right Paco’s vision is not good and so he does not always get the yards that
Are there once in a while he can create something when he breaks a tackle but he is just he is also part of the inconsistency uh and the problems that they have so it’s that’s where it is and that’s why I feel so much more Mahomes
Has to be a superhero is because there’s nothing that he can just truly rely on it’s truly right now the only consistent thing is him creating we’ve said this before they made a bet last year coming into last year they said as long as we have a healthy good offensive line and
Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce we can build an elite offense yes the problem this year is that the healthy quality offensive line has fallen off because last year when they had Orlando Brown and they had Andrew Wy that five really worked for them and they spent on guys
This off season they spent a lot of money on Taylor and Jonathan Smith was something that they stumbled into cuz he got cut by the bucks but he’s a reasonable choice at left tackle if you’re trying to build that five I understand that bet with him coming off
A down year you can get him pretty cheap that set of bets just hasn’t worked they have not been able to reconstruct that unit as defly as they had in previous years and you’ve felt the impact of that down in and down out so and it just like
You say it’s feel it’s eye test but then just even stats their early down running back success rate is 29th in the end NFL they’re tied with the Chargers they’re only ahead of the Jets and the Bucks it’s less than 30% that means when they
Run the ball two out of three of them more than that are gonna be bad plays for the Chiefs so you run the ball 20 times and that’s it we’re just gonna say Okay 13 of those are bad like okay that’s that’s not you can’t live like
That and so that is where they’re at though and this is what they’re solving and then when you have some drop off from Kelsey that there’s not all the stuff that they could rely on you can’t right now this is another rematch we’ve seen these two teams play already this
Year your biggest most important takeaway from the first matchup between these two teams this we talked about the Dolphins Improvement and the worries about the Chiefs offensive line in the The Run game this game the first time they matched uh they met up in Germany that was the game that was startling for
Me on both sides uh the Dolphins defensive line just whooped ass they it was a statement game for them especially the interior guys um but how does that hold up in this game that can be an issue there’s been the injuries but they I think this front still has some
Advantages on the inside because it’s been so inconsistent for the Chiefs I’m wondering if they it’s quite as devastating because think about how many twists and games they really bothered them with in the last the last time around those twists and games feel different with Melvin Ingram and Justin
Houston than they do with Bradley chub and Jay very true very true and Bradley chub was playing fantastic football this year oh my God it was such a jinx it was like literally we like highlighted him had a gushing glowing review about his play gets hurt it’s like Jaylen Phillips
Same way so it’s like it stinks because yeah you’re right when it’s a lot more devastating with those guys are around the field on the other side I thought the matchup between Steve spagnolo and Mike McDaniel in the first game was fascinating and the different things
That spags through at them a lot of early down simulated pressures that gave the Dolphins trouble so you’ll have George caraus dropping off the line you’ll have the nickel coming and they really Ed those up well and I thought they forced two would to make a lot of
Throws outside the numbers and he did make a couple in that game but their game plan for how to approach this team in the passing game I thought was very good and caught Miami off by surprise and what they did up front I thought was very good as well we’ve talked about
This with the Chiefs being able to walk into some of those five down looks because of what Leo Chanel can give them he’s an oversized linebacker and that those types of looks with five guys down plus the way their DBS tackled the Dolphins struggle to run the ball on the
Perimeter like they can against a lot of other teams they averaged 12.2 yards to go on third down the first time these two teams played against each other with the way the Dolphins are built and how they want to play and what a spags defense feels like that’s not the recipe
Yeah they all those condensed splits that was right in sp’s wheelhouse you know cor oh you’re gonna do condensed splits I’m gonna Blitz the corner okay yeah thanks uh I love doing that on top of it like you said just the also the screens and the tackling tied into that
They weren’t able to create some of those cheap yards where hey we’re going to dink off a screen boom we just get a 15 yard first down the tackling plays there’s Drew tranquil had the great one on the one screen I remember and then we
Had the uh the fumble return by uh Brian Cook that that was just an unbelievable play by uh but they just at that time it’s like you can really feel spags and that was the middle of the season and that’s what’s gonna be so interesting is
Now we get to see them in the playoffs which is what he is known for so this is in his wheelhouse it’ll be very interesting what he does against McDaniel who’s also a great adjuster I I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go back to some of those
Screens because the Chiefs tackled very well in the last game but Chiefs are actually 31st in the league in EPA per play against screens this year and they’ve lost the most total EPA on screens because they faced the second most in the NFL because you know what
Screens are screens are the answer to I don’t want to figure this out no it’s whatever the Chiefs have seen the second most screens against them who has seen the first most scre the Vikings by far isn’t the Vikings like it’s yeah it’s like it’s like 130 to 80 is is is where
Is where it is yes so I would not be surprised to see more of those from Miami though because it is a good thing to tap into and then the other Personnel thing I thought was interesting the Chiefs played almost exclusively dime on third down in this game almost
Exclusively they do it about 60% of the time normally they played 90% dime Personnel against the Dolphins and it makes sense right you get your the you get those body types onto the field they were dropping guys down when they were playing some too too high behind it just
Right into those passing Lanes so getting a bunch of 215 pound bodies right in that space where they want to throw the ball it was a fixture of the last game plan and I would expect to see a little bit more of that as well and
It’s very cool to watch the Chiefs and how spags will base everything out of the same quarter shell so it’s very cool if you watch this game and then what how Tua is gonna kind of discern what’s happening because it has to happen quick because that’s what spags wants to do is
Hesitate that Split Second and yeah it’s gonna be it’s gonna be very interesting if that ball comes out or if he double clutches and that pass rush gets home their ability run the ball consistently this year I remember being there this summer and asking them how what sort of
Adjustments what sort of improvements they needed to make the first thing out of Frank Smith’s mouth was we need to run the ball better and more often just be able to lean on it consistently because the way the teams are playing against us they’re going to DARE us to
Run the ball and that’s that felt like a huge difference with this Miami team than the one from last year when you watch them over the first 15 weeks of the season they were running the ball more effectively than pretty much any other team in the NFL you’ve had some
Offensive line injuries teams have gotten some tape on how you want to run the ball to the perimeter and when they can’t you start to get a sense of how fragile the construction of the offense is so I want to see can they lean on their ability to run the ball in this
Game and avoid some of that fragility especially in subzero temperatures like the ones we’re going to see yeah that’s why the Run game is very important because it’s going to be what negative 20 negative3 windchill um but it’s miserable I know know I I’m like in the
38 degrees or 40 degrees here in Vegas I’m like oh I can’t go outside uh I’m So Soft now but the the the r it was surprised me I looked back at that game and I was like oh rushing success rates okay for the Dolphins like I think it’s
Like over 45% and I’m like I’m kind of like refilling like why do I feel like that with the dolphins it’s because they’re so many times in short yardage we’ve talked about with the red zone stuff it’s that those kind of more clutch moments like they drive they
Start drives very well and it feels like as the drafts go along they don’t sustain the Run game so it’s the Run game feels like a counter punch not something they can dictate to you and I think that’s as opposed to the first half of the Year where they were like
Whatever we do we’re dictating it’s great so I yeah that that it’s very kind of like I’m just gonna keep uh keep an eye on but also U where the shot plays come because of that from the Dolphins when do they pick those chances like do
How do they set that all up what are the adjustments McDaniel has for spags I think that’s gonna be interesting because they played this year which I that I always like that because it’s like okay we did it that year we had weeks okay so I’m curious just what
Little wrinkles they have like when do the Haymakers come from each side when the Chiefs have the ball number one thing you’re looking at Travis Kelce be Travis Kelce he has to he has to step up um this is a Prime game to have a good game uh dolphins have allowed the eighth
Most yards per game to tight ends this year and our 30th in dvoa defending tight ends uh how many times on this show have we brought up dton Kade Jake Ferguson every time we’ve do dolphins defense they like empty throw it over the middle watch out for the TI ends
Yeah so Travis Kelce is supposed to be the guy um the other thing is momes for first Vic fangio defenses uh looked it up finally the little True Media filtering here 50% success rate on 238 dropbacks 0.11 EPA per drop back that’s good Prett good yeah and I forget how
Much he’s seen them that’s that’s a good call because think about the Broncos they multiple years where they see him twice a year he’s play defenses a lot yeah the game he got H in in 2019 like so I I went back and yeah I was looking
At those and it’s like he’s it’s a lot of nickel and Diamond there’s gonna be a lot underneath peppering but again this offense has to stay on schedule because that’s the most that’s the most important thing for this offense oh and the last thing Dolphins brought 10 pressures last time Mahomes did great
Against them but they did bring a lot of pressures again testing the offensive line testing their communication right now I like the Kelsey observation because if you again we’re building reasons why this Chief’s offense has felt underwhelming they need him to be a super duper Star last year with the
Construction of their pass catching spots he hasn’t really been that this year he’s still very good he’s still one of the best tight ends in the NFL but even last year it felt like he was transcending what we expect from that position as a pass Catcher And I don’t
Think he’s done that this year and I think you felt that even that slight difference going from an all World player to a merely Pro Bowl player that has really impacted the Chiefs just because that’s how they’re built is to lean on him in that way yep that’s the
Creation of it if when you have all these third and Longs that could created when you’re not running the ball again when Mahomes has to create when you see Mahomes create it’s usually going to Kelce and when Kelce is inconsistent he’s you know playing Angry uh it’s just
Like you said like going from all world to very good or just good it’s just like that’s okay well we just we just go to Rashi rice cadarius Tony you know juu Smith Juju Smith Shuster what’s nice about Juju Smith Shuster is he’s reliable he blocks and he’s going to sit
At six yards and sit in that hole against Zone these guys are all over the place rice is gonna be a very good player I really do think that he has special movement ability but getting him to getting the ball in his hands is the journey this was game this last game he
Had some nice moments remember but then he had one moment where he didn’t wrap around on a on a on a route so I’m curious if he gets involved as well especially in the Red Zone but they need them um it’s they need these guys to step up that because this just hasn’t
Been consistent this whole year the supporting piece on these teams that people should know about who’s yours I I was glad you mentioned some of those simulates and all that and you said the nickel as opposed to Trent McDuffy who is the but yes that I I like that uh but
He yeah he how he affects the game this was a very good game from him last time um but he had 11 combined tackles in that game and I’m not just saying like oh tackles are the best stat just that’s how involved he was um all those screens
We just mentioned that the the Dolphins want to put that Apex slot Defender that overhang that’s also the name of my article series for Yahoo but the overhang they want to put that guy in a bind so when you that guy’s a good player it can make their life very hard
So that screen game we talked about the blitzing he’s gonna be very important to what happens especially you know the Dolphins are not starting their original starting center H so I you know do we see him getting a lot more involved yes we will I can guess because that’s how
Spags does it anyways yeah I’m going with just the front seven spine guys Christian Wilkins who is not a bit player but I think he becomes a huge piece in this game because we talk about the chief’s ability to run the ball and the linebackers you know Duke Riley is
Somebody that teams have picked on over the last couple games the Ravens did a fantastic job of kind of putting the shanos scope on him and saying we’re going to attack you throughout call the Shope Shan scope that’s great you you do this little Shanahan scope on Duke Raley
And that’s what the Ravens did and I think that we’re going to consistently see that but even just so many of the other pieces Andrew van gingle being out yeah and Andrew vanle has been such a useful player for this Dolphins team this year are all of this world like he he’s
Like one of the most efficient pass rushers in the league right now and he’s like all the stuff he doesn’t coverage go Badgers I was watching I was rewatching the game when they played last time and gaps game run right guards pulling kicking him out and he makes a
Fantastic play and it’s like oh yeah even he’s not playing in this game so as you get deeper and deeper into the depth of those front seven pieces against the Chiefs how do those guys hold up I think that goes a long way in determining what ultimately happens here absolutely so
Make sure to check out this game on peacock which I’ve had I I have to make plans are you kidding I have to make plans to watch this game I’m not illegal where you gonna go oh the sports book right down the road twist my arm well I
Wonder if places are going to have it a sports book would but I’m going to be in a situation where I’m going to be in a hotel in Detroit so do I watch it on my laptop do I try to go somewhere do I bring a USBC C
With me to the hotel I haven’t decided my plan of action yet yeah I’ve not I’ve not quite decided what my plan is but well I’ll figure it out between now and the game let’s get to Sunday we’re we’re going to treat this game a little bit differently and there’s not meant as
Disrespect to the Steelers but when it comes to Big line playoff games I like to handle it this way okay the Steelers are a 10-point underdog build me a Steelers upset in this game what is it going to take for the Steelers to win this game against
The bills okay one of my one of our my favorite games that we ever broke down originally was the Bills playing the Steelers week one of 2021 and it was it seems like 10 years ago it does doesn’t it I couldn’t even remember where I
Lived I it’s we were on a pre preall and I was like I actually had a I had like a I had like a midlife crisis I really did like my brain just fried um several times just one day but it’s that game and the bills came out they all this
Light Personnel five receivers four receivers every play We’re Going true air raid remember this is this D’s feeling himself then yep that’s they came out from the previous year we’re like we’re just going to keep on rolling baby they it was big old middle finger offense and sure enough the Steelers
Took it to them they H brought simulated pressures this was a make of Fitzpatrick all World game we’re gonna use that phrase again it was um but it really was like they just took it to him and the bills had kind of like a big O laugh
Moment they had to go through some struggles that year but this is what this defense can do this is what the Steelers can do they can be game plany as well under Tomlin and they can use their players very well this it’s it’s hard because the bills offense has done
A lot of things I’ve wanted to see them to do this year they run the ball well they use Personnel well they do all those things but having said that the Steelers run defense is very good as well so you have a strength on strength the Steelers are fourth best against
Rushing success rate against running back runs on early downs and the bills are top four I believe in the same category as running the ball but do we get that turnover the James Cook drop that pops up into the air a Leonard forette fumble this guy was just signed
A month ago do we see something that um do we see him make of Fitzpatrick where he falls off of something do we see them try and bait something on the outside and Joey Porter Jr another Corner Falls underneath like just one of those wonky moments and then on offense it’s
Hopefully get some short Fields uh control the game with a run and get one or two George pickings or Deontay Johnson bombs and and really that’s the Steelers formula right now and they could do it I think that’s it I think that’s exactly it and they they’ve run
The ball really well recently and the bills run defense is fine it’s not great I’m much I I feel much better about the Bills playing against even though the Dolphins have run the ball well I feel much better about the bills having a really good playoff game plan against
The team that wants to Chuck it all over the yard if a team wants to come out and run the ball 45 times I think that you could potentially do it and if I’m the Steelers that’s what I try to lean into in this game and can I get one two big
Time explosive passes the same way they have over the last month can I get Pickins to take a slant 80 yards to the house can I get one go ball so that formula on offense I think is correct they’ve run the ball really well their offensive line even as some of the guys
Who are maybe a little bit inconsistent in other areas Brodrick Jones has brought like a physicality to that group he’s got it feels it feels different and I think that’s the right thing for them to lean into and on the defensive side you need take it away you need to take
It away twice and I love Josh Allen I love watching Josh Allen play It’s the whole thing he’ll give it to you he’ll give it to you a couple times and that is going it’s almost a non-negotiable part of the Steelers winning this game is them winning the turnover battle by
Two right being plus two in that column I think is where this thing has to begin this whole thing becomes harder without DJ Watt though you think though I I feel like the if I were in that those offensive meeting rooms and I know this is saying this to Josh
Allen who is his Professor Chaos himself chaos himself I’ll just go be boring everybody you’re boring this week you are boring like do not try they’re gonna tempt you that’s what they do the Steelers tempt you they go you go oh man that corner keeps falling off I’m gonna
Hit that whole shot over the top and guess what you try it and then they fall off and they pick it off and then also it’s a short field as you feel like you’re really just taking the game they block a punt they just just do your jobs
Do your jobs well to to Echo coach bellich but I I think that’s just they have to make if they make the backend wonky if Allen does try to start straining if the Run game is not getting there that’s how you build that game plan for an upset like because that’s
Just what the Steelers want to do it’s the Jiu-Jitsu battle there in previous years I would have said pretty quickly that the Steelers front against this bill’s offensive line was a mismatch in the Steelers favor I don’t really think that anymore and watch out part of the reason
They’re playing very well and the way that de Dawkins is playing there would have been stretches previous Seasons where this ver of Alex heith against that version of Dion Dawkins would have left me mildly concerned for the bills he doesn’t need chip help he’s good not
The case anymore so you have high Smith who lines up predominantly on the right side and no watt to go up against Spencer Brown overall that set of matchups I feel better about the bills that I would have in previous iterations the only player that stands out in a bad
Way for the bills sometimes is their rookie Right Guard and I think that is a I mean that as a compliment and that’s once I think torren is a good player I or a fine starter I think once a while he gets beat but that’s that’s a good
Thing the fact that Spencer Brown I’m no they use Spencer Brown in such an intelligent way in the Run game right now and they’ve really learned how to use him I think he’s improved to he went from terrible last year that he was a huge sore spot too he’s fine that is
What they needed but yeah they’ve had a bump that I I agree you think that using him as a polar and not asking him to dominate guys at the point of attack is the correct use of that guy who’s like 67 and he weighs like 290
Pounds I know SP like a former tight end I know but he is good to Polar but also it’s funny when they do run Duo it’s always to the left it’s like always hey let’s go dock inside we used to do that with the Raiders oh yeah because
Actually it’s perfect because uh Donald Penn and Dawkins are kind of like they’re from the same archetype yeah that’s so true just big big boys big left tackle mulling left tackle but not like yeah the finessi left tackle they’re same same archetype of that position the other thing to watch for in
My opinion and I’ll be the one to say this so you don’t have to is the Dalton conade against the middle of the field pass pass defense for the Steelers okay so you have the Steelers are deep into their adep chart at offb linebacker similar to the way that the Dolphins are
At a bunch of different positions and I think you can get after them in that way whether that’s the tight end whether that’s James Cook whether that’s khil Shakir out of the slot that collection of guys in that specific area I think is something to look out for nope great
Point supporting pieace do you think more people should be thinking about in this game I I already hinted to it but Joey Joey Porter Jr uh the quarterback for the Steelers not an edge uh but he plays like an edge out there uh but he actually no I mean that he’s actually a
Corner but he’s very physical yes yeah yeah yeah he has a pass rushing mindset yes uh but he if he holds up on the outside which I think he can against Stefon dick he’s been truly a p i don’t know what the Keystone player I’m trying
To think of a good way a pivotal player for the Steelers defense that was a huge question mark I like Porter Jr he’s been way better than I even thought he could be as a rookie um and it’s truly help boom bus type of prospect where you got
The physical tools but there is a chance that a guy with that profile can go very very wrong and it has not it is it’s oh my God the speaking of Pete Carroll those old legion of boom coaches would have loved him but it’s yeah but that’s
It he would miss off the line sometimes you’re hoping his recoverability but now he’s been truly a good starter for them uh but if he doesn’t give Diggs any easy buckets on the outside what you’re speaking to canade ALS khil Shakir but the thing is again this is all get tie
At home does Josh Allen get bored with that how many times do we see those little six-yard stick routes that Cade over and over what the Steelers like to do is run coverages where the corner falls off and I keep mentioning this because that’s what I think they’re
Gonna try to do is make him bore bait him yeah bait him and then as soon as he gets aggressive they go that’s when they get aggressive as well and that’s that’s what I’m just really curious is just how boring Josh Allen could be and I think
Joey Porter Jr going on Diggs is like a huge component of that if the bills lose this game we have some awkward conversations and this this is the the season has been so wonky for the bills I I’m I want to ask you this on January
11th at :05 Central Time how do you feel about the Buffalo Bills my uh preseason Super Bowl pick yes my my preseason MVP pick the number two seed right now my won the division in a pretty tough okay pretty tough division have a great run game they use Personnel they’re doing
Everything I want them to do I feel awful I I have no idea this Bills team any day I feel to so different about them and I I feel better about them right now than I did maybe six weeks ago way way better than I did six weeks ago
I think they are a good playoff team that can make some noise because of Allen how their defense has been feisty but holy crap you can expect anything out of this team right now good and bad which is awesome but from I like that from nine
Weeks ago where I was like I don’t know if this defense can hang like you know what it is they’re playing sometimes better than their offense which I think is so interesting if you told me you could look into the future a month I think the Super Bowl’s a month from
Today if you look into the Super in the future a month and you would say that bills won the Super Bowl I’d be like oh that’s a little surprising but I I could see that happening if you looked into the Future 4 days and you told me the
Bills lost to the Steelers like oh it’s a little bit surprising but I could see that happening both of those things I’d have a similar reaction right right they’re very within it’s not like a 1% chance it’s like both are no both are very valid possibilities because you
Just never know with this team couple injury things to take into consideration that I think are maybe play into that mode of an upset that we talked about rasul Douglas hurt so you’re digging into the depth at corner is that big explosive play that we’re talking about
Maybe be a little bit more likely with some injuries to the back end of the bills defense yeah that’s no that’s going to be it that’s like you try you have to make him matriculate down the field that’s it make Mason Rudolph beat you that’s what the game’s gonna come
Down to next one Packers at Cowboys man it just instantly you say that in the playoffs and I just my mind goes to the Jared Cook catch or the Dez Dez caught it moment I mean just every single playoff moment we’ve seen between these two teams and this version of it
There just seems like there’s so many things on the line narrative wise you have Dak and Mike McCarthy who’ve kind of reclaimed their narratives in certain ways but if they flame out in the playoffs again every single bit of Goodwill and changing of the minds that’s taking place this year ultimately
Will be for not and on the other side you have what Jordan Love and Matt laflor have done where this Packers team that was supposed to be in this reset year feeling out what the next stage of the franchise would look like their quarterback is playing as well as any
Quarterback in football over the last month and their coach despite people wanting to fire him in the middle of the season I think has proven to everybody that he is the right guy to be in charge of this yeah hey Packers fans I I remember when you guys were doing the K
Williams photoshops my replies after after that Raiders game they’re there I saw you I saw them yeah but it’s it’s been before the season I think we both were we had Packers as a playoff team hey you know we can maybe see something out of love in this
Offense some of these young guys and after first month and a half of the season I was like oh dummy youngest team in the league you kidding me Nate come on man you did this with him but this past nineish weeks is love is playing as
Well as anybody in the league at that position it’s been awesome to watch he plays in a way that is fun to watch this offense plays in a way that’s fun to watch they have speed they make mistakes sometimes that is endearing almost like sometimes it’s just like oh my God
That’s right you guys are the youngest team in the league but in the weirdest way these two these two teams were my least favorite teams growing up the Cowboys and the Packers and they’ve become almost a as an analyst they become a security blanket for me and
Because I just know the characters so well like I just know their the defense coordinators have both been there for three years the play callers the what they want to do on offense the changes the car like again the player involved yeah so it’s kind of watching
This game it feels just yeah just feels like I feel like I’m home watching this NFC battle in the Wild Card funny because I have a harder time picturing this game than I think you do I I don’t know how this is going to go I don’t I
Don’t know why that is I think it’s just because this cowboys both units on the Cowboys are hard to figure out you can have these moments where the off if you told me that the Cowboys scored 40 against the Packers defense this weekend I wouldn’t necessarily be surprised but
If you told me that the Cowboy defense got gashed because Green Bay has a lot of levers they can pull against this type of Defense specifically I also wouldn’t be surprised at that so it’s just hard for me to get a beat on how this is going to unfold I don’t know why
And I think that is is the I think the plan of attack from both of his defenses I’ve seen like I think I was like okay I watch this Packers team how do they defend this and okay it’s good and bad Joe Barry’s defense is very predictable
Uh and then same with Dan Campbell or Dan Campbell Dan Quinn and his defense is that I watch it I’m like okay there’s a man covers to do this and now I’ve watched enough of lefl enough of love and how they attack it’s like okay I
Think they’re gonna do this and how they get there is this I don’t want to spoil some of the things we’re g to talk about but I I think that’s why I there’s like you just said the levers that they can pull I think I know what those levers
Are or have an inkling every time I ever get ahead of myself on this I’m like over but this game I really do feel like again it’s where these how these guy these teams like to attack I can see the paths that they want want to do it
Against these opposing teams let’s let’s do a little previously on it what I want to start with is why do you think this Packers offense has been so much better than people could have expected is it just as simple as Jordan love is better than we ever could have predicted or
There other elements of things they’ve done that you think have allowed them to outpace what people expected from them in the preseason number one thing is it was a hell of a coaching job it was a lot of young players very moldable young players but ones that you have to take
Your lumps with so not only is love ascended to a type of style that like benefits his benefits his teammates pushing the ball avoiding sacks helps the offensive line the offensive line is solidified we got their left guard back they got several players are healthy they figured out their tackle situation
Kind of um but they at least got that Aaron Jones has come back that’s helped their run game out they’re not playing Patrick Taylor for 30 snaps when they signed him three days before that helps and then again the young players not just love the young receivers the young
Tight ends who are again all rookie or second-year players have all gotten better as The Season’s gone along all at the same time not just one of them not just two of them not just one and a half every single player has improved from when they got him Bo Melton’s kep
Getting a 100 yards iname the one that pisses me off is Wix like Wix is the one that really upsets me the fact that he is as Dynamic and as good as he is and he’s the one that they just grabbed in the fifth round for nothing that really
Is upsetting it’s adjacent the Zack Tom experience the Zack Tom one I feel like is like I understand that frustration especially because he has positional versatility yeah I know sometimes to just stumble into like a weird right tackle that wears 50 and has been good
For them since day one two first names I hate it I I absolutely hate it on the other side of the ball similar kind of question about the Cowboys because if we’re trying to figure out why this is going to be different for Dallas than it’s been in the last couple years where
They flamed out in Epic ways in the postseason why do you think this cowboys offense specifically feels like a slightly different flavor than the one we’ve gotten for the first couple years of the McCarthy Dak partnership oh crank it up to cidi uh find cidi get cidi the ball that’s number one it’s
Understanding that it’s okay to have a guy be the number one Lynch pin of your passing game and then build off of that and saying build off of that is the auxiliary pieces are way better than they’ve been the past it’s not T Y Hilton off the street catching third
Down passes it’s Brandon Cooks who’s still second half of the Season Brandon Cooks has really come on and if you want to know how Dak feels about Brandon Cooks look who he targeted in the Dolphins game against Jaylen Ramsey to win the game or try to win the game I
Should say um even Jaylen tolbert’s had his moments so even though the Run game has been wildly inconsistent the passing game has truly been consistent outside a couple blemishes but and that’s it all starts with just starts with CD and then the exilar pieces off of that I think
That’s I think that’s right and being able to build it through CD with the volume that they have and the ways they’ve deployed him right he’s he’s outside he’s in the slot he feels like one of those three four five guys where everything about the passing game runs
Through him the same way that AJ Brown feels about the Eagles when they’re at their best the same way that Tyreek Hill feels the same way that Justin Jefferson feels and it doesn’t feel like he got that type of treatment in previous iterations of the offense I think that’s
Made a huge difference and them being able to the way how much more explosive Jake Ferguson is than the other tight end options that they’ve had where it’s not just reliable there’s actually pop to it and then you drop Cooks into it and that’s how it feels and the other
Thing for me and it’s what we talked about with why Dak was an MVP candidate and why Dak is an all pro on some people’s ballots his aggression and his ability to do some stuff outside of structure this year has given them a new level yeah the scrambling that he’s
Added the outside of the pocket throws on the move that he’s added and the I’m going to push this every single opportunity I’m ripping 18 yard seam balls every single time you give me a chance to all of that combined with the collection of pass catchers and the
Roles they’ve been slotted into and credit where it’s due some nice wrinkles from the offensive coaching staff and some real let’s look in the mirror and figure out what we do best type of stuff that happened around the buy it really has led to a different version of this
Cowboys team and I think that’s important to remember because as we get started on this I can understand why people are going to be enamored with the Ravens and people are going to be enamored with the Niners and this may look really dumb in 3 days if
They lose this game to Green Bay but I truly do believe that on the eve of the playoffs this Cowboys team specifically because of what the offense is has more of a puncher’s chance to actually do this thing than they have over the last couple years yeah they they hit the
Threshold for explosive pass rate that’s the number one thing I was always worried about with this team and now they can do it and I even with the Run game and I you’ll hear me throughout all these shows I harp on Run game stuff it’s how
They play helps me feel better about it in the weirdest way because of it’s the stuff we used to complain about because they can nickel and dime when they want to but like you said they can push the ball CD is creating more with the ball in his hands Jake Ferguson is pushing
Down the field how many times you see him throwing over the seam balls but I also think that they had that Catalyst moment or that that spark after they lost against the San San Francisco San Francisco 49ers once they realize oh this doesn’t work and to do that
Midstream is awesome yeah it’s not that cidi is aligned more on the outside say because he’s primarily in the slot it’s that they when he is on the outside they say we’re GNA Target him more we’re doing that with a purpose and they found a purpose and sometimes teams need to
You know get blasted to realize that and sometimes just fold but sometimes revamp and they revamped I mean the the comparison I can think of um recently was remember when the Bucks in 2020 got throttled by the Saints and then they kind of merged some of the Aran stuff
And some of what Brady liked with a really good comparison that’s what they I’m not again I just did what you did not saying in three days if they lose they’ll throw this back in the face but that’s what this offensive transformation felt in their own way and
It’s been cool and like you said Dak is playing the best ball of his career some of the creation stuff but those designs just all make sense for their personnel and their personnel is just excelling everything they get has to do it’s I really like this offense it’s it’s a
Weird hybrid see some West Coast I see some of my like Scott lenan Mike Ty like freaking Joe Gibbs stuff in there I see some shoten Heimer Norv a little bit in there like it’s it’s everything they call what the Golf Coast offense yeah it’s like yeah something like that yeah
Very jumbal like very very very a little bit of everything going on everything’s simmering in there for a good 10 12 hours before you dive in and Dax is stirring it up let’s start with the Cowboys offense most important aspect of that unit against this Packers defense for you uh
Okay this is so funny we talked about before the show I was like hey I think they might lean this strategy this Packers defense and then someone finds the exact thing I was going to talk about and quote tweets it and I was like holy I was literally writing a note
On note about this and what that is is do the Packers give CD lamb the Justin Jefferson treatment and what that is hey when he is on the outside for those 30% snaps do we just run cover two cloud it over to his side Jer Alexander Jam him
As hard as he can disrupt the timing they run a lot of Slants they run a lot of timing routes slant flat is very much still a part of Mike McCarthy’s offense and same with triple slant the original way to disrupt that was Jam the out
Of the receivers so do we see some of that when CD is in the slot do we see the one double every single snap okay one way that you can blast defenses out of this is run the ball what have I mentioned several times the Cowboys Run
Game is like bottom eight bottom seven as terms of success rate okay all right but now we move on to the auxiliary pieces the cooks the Fergusons of the world and they will probably have to step up if I the Packers attack CD like I think they might and this again brings
Us back to the auxiliary pass catchers if they’re going to run that one double stuff could you have other guys that can take advantage of those one-on-one matchups because jar Alexander is still a pretty good player as and tic as he has been recently I was trying to find a
Yeah like way to get there like that I don’t think a lot of other people could name me a Green Bay Packers defensive back two of them have almost the same name so that helps but it’s difficult to get there this is not a good group this
Is a group that has struggled at times this year and now if you’re going to do that one double stuff and you’re going to rely on everyone else and not Jer Alexander does that become a problem against Jake Ferguson Brandon Cooks yes the one area where I will say I think
The Packers even if they don’t have a decided Advantage I think that they’re on even ground I I like this Packers front a lot MH there are guys that are consistently affecting the game for them and on early downs and even just period they do it more on early Downs though
They their their Blitz rate on third down is actually not very high some of the 50 looks that they’re creating across the board where they’re giving themselves one-on ones and you give those to Carl Brooks Devonte Wyatt ran Gary Preston Smith that’s a good group and we’ve we’ve seen them play at their
Best defensively two I’d point to what they did to the Lions on Thanksgiving and what they did to the Bears last week that’s how they win it’s those guys winning their one-on-ones consistently and just torpedoing opponent passing games and Tyler Smith is banged up you know so does that play into this game
But I do think that’s the one area where a reeling Joe Berry defense actually has a fighting chance against Dallas no it’s a great point that and that’s if you wonder why the Run game feels inconsistent because the Cowboys offensive line has been battered and beat up and every every guy feels like
Taking turns getting hurt um no that’s a great Point especially really the pass rush ability of that that group you already mentioned that their ability to win um the hand usage from all those guys is so great it’s really good it’s it’s really I was
Trying to find a way to phrase it but they’re very violent it’s a very violent group and I think that’s why where when you watch them you actually feel them when they win and I I was I’ll spoil it right now my supporting piece is those guys it’s Carl Brooks and Devonte Wyatt
And you look at what happened with Devonte w week even and people will watch that game that haven’t watched the Bears much in that 3 pm slot and say man T Jenkins that guy is rough te Jenkins had a really nice season for the Bears he was coming back from injury but he
Played some really good football for them Devonte Wyatt destroyed him over the course of that game and that is an outlier compared to what the offensive line for Chicago has looked like for good chunks of this season but that’s the level that this group can play play
Out for the Packers I I know we’re talking toas Smith hurt but when Zack Martin went out remember against the Eagles uh I mean just how that or no not the Eagles the bills um just how that game totally changed interior pressure just derails that because yeah they
Might not be able to run the ball but still deak and mitigate pressure and still find answers so all you’re going to heat them up right away oh the things can come off the rails if you if you do do that number one thing you’re looking
For when the Packers have the ball uh where is Micah Parsons where is number 11 that is that it really is because the Cowboys will move him around where they think the weaknesses of the opposing offens line if we really think it’s the tackles we’re going to line them up on
The edge over and over if we think uh like a couple weeks ago it is the right guard for the Detroit Lions well yeah we’re gonna bump him on over to the Right Guard uh but that’s where where they move him going against a Packers offense that is truly guys excellent
Game plans every week protections and play action they use more play action types of protections like different guys pulling different guys chipping different guys helping each other than a lot of other teams any other team so okay if we’re going to try and attack that way how do we Shore up against
Micah Parsons how do we win that way with the Zack Toms of the world with our interior guys so I I’m just truly interested to see what the game plan on both sides of who they think the weaknesses are they did such a good job think back to that game again on on
Thanksgiving they played against the Lions the plan they had for Aiden Hutchinson the difference between this Cowboys team and that Alliance team is the Cowboys have other dudes so even if you take michah parsons’s out of this game if you spend too many resources trying to do that Demarcus Lawrence can
Still play you know they’ve got a couple more guys that can do just fine but I think that the thoughtfulness with which the Packers have appr approached that kind of gamebreaking force on the other side we taking into consideration here uh and it matters because the the Packers used play action more than
Anybody uh since 20 or since 2009 since week nine the Packers have used play action 28% of their staffs fifth most and Jordan love has accumulated more yards off of play action than any other QB thank you next Shin stats for that stat but I uh also think that it’s to me
It’s that race of blocking it up letting him attack because the Cowboys can be predictable they’ll run man coverage if we block you up and your pressure does not get home let our receivers run these big overs and big crossers run away from the Defenders and love launches it up to
Them so that’s to me on at least on first and second down I’m just G to be really interested in watching it’s fascinating to me how much the weaknesses of the Cowboys defense theoretically with all that man and all of that cover three match where you know
The rules you know you know what you know what you’re getting and Matt wfur has does such a good job of okay these are your rules I’m going to snap them over my knee and so all the different ways that you want to attack Dallas bunches and stacks jet motion different
Sort of release patterns if you’re with the way you’re going to Aline guys that’s how the Packers want to play already so the Packers style of offense actually aligns pretty well with where the Cowboys weaknesses on defense are and that’s why I think that this matchup is intriguing and that’s why I think
That this game which is minus seven and a half for Dallas it feels a little Rich to me because of what this Packers offense looks like sometimes especially against teams like this yeah I didn’t want to like really give any touts because I’m 500 anyways but it’s yeah
That one felt weird to me it felt like just a couple too many points uh but it’s because I I was also just picturing Packers Run game they can watch that Lions tape the Lions gave him great film to use so Aaron Jones on Zone runs AJ
Dylan’s health is huge because just the spell uh uh Jones give him that Thumper up the middle but I think we see some of those kind of toss outside Zone plays then that’s what the Packers love to do also they will run trap plays the Lions
Did a great job of that take take advantage of the aggressiveness of the Cowboys defensive line Packers will do that too so yeah I um they can control the clock and hit a couple of those shot plays over the top it’s gonna be really really really interesting I already said
Mine who’s the supporting piece you think people should know about believe it or not and this is not a joke it’s going to be the two Packers rookie tight ends Tucker craft and Luke Musgrave and this is truly guys I know I’m a sucker for both these you steadfast my friend I
Appreciate the commitment to the bit oh man craft has been craft looks exactly what I thought You’ look like in year three that’s again another guy that’s like holy crap he has been phenomenal in the Run game it is so fun to watch and it’s not just I mean you know you’re
Coming across kicking guys out whatever that rep he had against Monta SWAT he just controls Monta sweat at the point of attack in that game it’s like oh then now they got this guy too I just cannot catch a break that play kills me because uh you can tell Tucker craft is
Very aware of Mont sweat and he I’ve never seen a TI I should say I never but I he like kind of did like a like a power clean rep before the snap like he really like was like ready Hut Blue 80 on that like blue before the go he was
Already like launching up he was like I gotta get after this guy otherwise he’s gonna push me down to the ground um but I really think in this game going against this Cowboys defense that likes to use light bodies I mean they run a quote unquote three four defense with
Four DBS and I don’t think anyone’s bigger than 230 pounds amongst their linebackers and DBS and all their defensive tackles are light so if we get in this bigger body with two valid blockers Tucker craft and Luke Musgrave get them catching the ball working these these linebackers over the middle I
Really think that they could unlock some stuff I talked about those toss outside Zone plays they’re the point of attack and I think craft can actually do that so I think they’re going to be huge and also just one called shot Dak Prescott Zone re and L Red Zone for a touchdown
That that is it I’m ofer on these on the year but I’m I’m gonna call this because Gary’s a great player playing Zone reame not not really his strong point the outcome of this game and the aftermath depending on who wins or loses is going to be fascinating if the
Cowboys lose this game the discourse on Monday or the I don’t can’t remember when this game is happening I think it’s Sunday the discourse the day after is to and I think in that timeline if they lose this is a potential tur point for me about the way we talk about matl
Because I don’t think enough people have given him his flowers for the job that he did this year and I think if they were to win this game it would draw a lot of attention to just how great of a coaching job he’s done and the trajectory that this Packers team is on
Overall and trajectory is right word because they ascended throughout the year it’s and sometimes you’re like oh you don’t want to you know take too stock and the late season rise and everything but it’s like these are all building blocks and young players it’s exactly the players you want to see Rise
Throughout the season I I’m telling you guys throughout that first six weeks of the season when they’re struggling every guy’s making a mistake I just kept laughing and just going like before I can dial up those plays guys hey it’s still fun to watch hey whatever but the
Fact that these guys are executing and are detailed that speaks it starts at the top because you can tell his fingerprints on this offense let’s get to the next one here Rams at Lions I will be there in Detroit right Sunday night I am pumped this is everything you
Could want from a wild card game we’ve talked about it a little bit over the course of the week and everyone knows right everyone knows what’s going on here you have a quarterback who the Rams threw in the garbage can and Jared gof and Shan McVey came out this week and
Said I did not handle that probably the best way that I could have and he didn’t right no he did he did not and at publicly privately I think he was fed up with the way that Jared was playing quarterback and they needed to make a change because of it the onfield stuff
Was rough the like coming off the sideline stuff like even even if you didn’t know anything that was happening beyond the scenes it was like it was very apparent even just watching those interactions the frustration was there and I think that he wored a little bit
Too much on his sleeve and you could see that and I think that you could hear the kind of consiliary tone that he took with it I think you still feels bad about it Stafford going back to Detroit and everything that comes with that even if there’s not a Revenge element to it
Even if it made sense for both sides to move on I talked about it with Chase this week Imagine working somewhere for a decade and then go going back there and seeing people you used to work with and being back in that office and being
Back in the space where you grew up your family started I mean just so many different parts of this is going to be emotional for him and success to him is making those people sad that’s yes that’s that’s the other component of it and then you have all the other kind
Of alignment pieces with Brett Holmes who came comes from laway and what I think is so interesting about this specifically is these teams needed each other to get where they are now the lions are not who they are without that tradeit they’re not who they are without
Jared gof they’re not who they are without those picks that was necessary for them to jump start what has been the best turnaround this sport has seen in a very long time I understand that the bills got there and the bills were a downtrodden franchise that now is a
Fixture but just where I grew up and my proximity to this team and to their sadness this just feels more potent to me I think because of how aware of I was and then on the other side the Rams needed Matthew Stafford the Rams needed
This trade to get over the top so even though there’s some tension created by that decision and what it’s meant for certain people the fact that these two franchises are so linked because of that one single decision and because of the paths they took after that I think that’s what
Makes this game just unbelievably intriguing it’s yeah it’s yeah what did you say about the Lions is very true even like like you said where you grew up um I mean the fact that they haven’t won a division title in what three decades haven’t hosted a playoff game in three
Decades it’s those yeah that’s how it was in the NFC Central I was like oh Barry Sanders is fun yeah but there’s you know you know Joey Harrington watching Calvin Johnson play against panut Tilman two times a year was great John kit now you know is they they had
The oh they had the ugly uniforms with the black face mask and all that stuff but the uh also my dad was 80 against the Lions so that that’s really yeah yeah one real brutal one too they like kept it close they were about to kick
The extra point to tie the game I think they just scored Joey Harrington had like the best Drive of his life of course against the Vikings defense and they uh botched the extra point hold and then like and then came off gets tackled game over and after that Harrington was
Like sick or something and you could just tell I I cor Rings under his eyes and he’s just like he’s like I don’t know man I just don’t know and it’s like again talking about sorry sorry Lions fans it’s great for you guys like you said though but that’s how I know the
Lions so this is I think in this show The Arc of this show that we have done me and you Robert this Lions team has felt like one of the main characters 100 watching Dan Campbell getting hired the trade the all the movements after that the highlights of Dan campell’s rookie
Year just going like hey that’s interesting this might be something the Rams winning right away it’s the ultimate win-win trade it’s awesome you don’t get that a lot in sports we truly both sides can come out happy if you don’t consider Go’s feelings but it’s I
Mean but it’s you don’t I think jar Go’s doing just fine he’s doing just fine it’s so funny that you say that because I was just thinking this week about recording that podcast after the trade from my hotel room in Tampa because it was right before the Super Bowl so I had
Flown to Tampa for the Super Bowl a Super Bowl where I did nothing but stay in my hotel room by the way cuz it was the co Super Bowl where there was no access but I was in Tampa that whole week and I recorded it from my hotel
Room and the one thing I will say and I don’t mean to r on Lion’s fans parade here but this was supposed to be the moment where the lions were ascending and the Rams were supposed to be on their downfall right so now that it seems a
Little closer than that that’s a tough one and the other side of this and maybe save this for what matters if they win or lose but there’s a spectre of Ben Johnson leaving here and I think that maybe that’s not on the minds of lions
Fans it’s on my mind he’s been such a huge force in how they’ve done this and you just think that it’s going to be like you say the Disco St meme where where just all systems go forever from here on out and these these opportunities don’t come along that
Often so I think that making sure you take advantage of that and the team that you were supposed to bypass not being the one that ends this for you important consideration here very important consideration uh I know they’re I’ve been trying to figure out this is going to be such a Nate TI
Analogy I’m sorry guys but I’ve been trying to figure out like why like what is specific about what the Lions do and the thoughtfulness when I I watch them and it just always seems like uh you know we always come back to a third down their design place the short yardage the Red
Zone like special situation plays and when it comes down to it I finally found I think a comparison like that works you played Mortal Kombat right I have yeah you know when you have to do like a fatality like you have to be like sweep like distance away okay and then you
Have to punch in the combo and has be input that’s the lons offense okay this is a fatality from the 22 yard line that we designed for for this play this is the one from the three yard line we have to be that perfect distance for this
Perfect play but they have a lot of perfect plays but when I watch an offense like that those so many frustrating offenses this year Jaguars Falcons ones that we were high on be like man why does it feel like this way it’s because they’re not punching it in
They’re not scoring in the Red Zone they’re not converting on third down they’re turning the ball over the Lions have never felt that way under Ben Johnson no it is they feel disciplined whoever’s out there they feel like everyone’s on the same page you can tell guys are excited because they know that
Play is going to work um it’s just you watch that I’m on R st Brown touchdown against the Packers you Ben he’s telling the story about the he was like oh yeah Ben Ben Johnson came to and said this play is gonna work because we saw something on film so when they went
Tempo and they signal it he was all fired up but that’s Confidence from the coaching and what he’s scouting so he’s the thoughtfulness I’ve seen from this offense I know Hank fry that what the offensive line does is a lot but all the passing game win to push the right
Buttons like he he’s one of the better offensive coordinators I’ve seen recently we’ve gushed about the Lions offense dis gushed about the Rams offense justifiably so they’re two of the best watches in the league two of the best offenses in the league are previously on here let’s talk about two
Units we we don’t give as much attention to I’m as guilty of anybody as anybody about this we’ve not talked about the Rams defense much on this show in 2023 what is the Rams defense like if you were trying to explain to people who have not watched this unit much how is
This thing constructed who are the guys to know where are we at with this group oh man they are the sum is great than their parts uh and one of those parts is Aaron Donald but this defense is Aaron Donald and the Donald Letz like that’s
What they play like but they had him playing still very good I wouldn’t say he is true into obviously the prime Aaron Donald but still very good still an all pro level player still all pro level I would I’m tempted if I were doing one of the second Team all pro is
Probably where I would name him but they have Kobe Turner at nose tackle Byron young at Edge these guys okay oh they got some nice you know new players two rookies rookies okay on top of that third round picks this year rookies that are playing not only just positive ball
Almost Defensive Rookie of the Year caliber maybe a down year but um their back end who’s they traded away jayon Ramsey they again play as a whole unit they’re a very amoeba like defense where everybody’s on the same page and moving when you think of Zone and match
Coverages like the Rams kind of like are that it’s like because they have to be Jordan fer is a smart safety in the backr in the back he’s been he’s hurt right now but um they’re they’re feisty they play with great awareness they pass things off and then they got game like
Good play from some undrafted free agents that they had in the past Christian roseb Michael Hoy who is a 305 pound Canadian ivy league player that can I’ve seen him do a Superman punch pass rush move which I was like what the hell you got that in you and then on the
Next play you’ll see him dropping 15 yards into coverage trying to cover a wheel route one of the most unique players he’s built like a T-Rex but one of the most unique players in the league and that’s that’s what the Rams feature they are a unique defense but they play very smart
Football I was talking to an offensive coordinator this week who they played against the Rams this year and he was saying that the scheme that they run with all the toai and all the shell it does a great job of elevating kind of mediocre to middling talent and that’s
It like you look at every single metric the Rams defense are in this year it’s they’re 16th to 20th in pretty much everything that you’re going to look at and that is a testament to the job that Rim Morris does that’s not a disappoint and that’s the general structure you
Know this is a lot of still this daily fangio type of thing that they’ve been doing for the last couple years but they have added some silliness to it that I absolutely love the amount of simulated pressures that this team is running and the ways that they’re doing them so
Silly Ernest Jones who’s an excellent Blitzer he’s been an excellent Blitzer since the day he got there his blitzing ability dictated a lot of the success they had defensively on the run to the Super Bowl he’s an awesome player he is I think third or fourth in the NFL in
Pass rush snaps from offb linebackers not surprising that’s how you would expect him to be deployed Michael Hoy who you just mentioned who weighs 300 lb has dropped into coverage more than 200 times this season which is the most of any Edge player in the league Byron
Young who is also a pass rusher is second in the amount of times he’s dropped into coverage this season looks like he should be because he’s long you know he can run a little bit Hoy does not it’s but that’s what this is this is unconventional warfare
From the Rams defense where they’re just dropping random guys and guys are it’s just all these weird simulated pressures I had not watched them much and I will fully admit that I turned it on this morning I was having a great I was having a great time so that’s what
You’re going to get in this game it’s yeah they they are very like you said they were 16 20 best defense and it’s like that’s a compliment I thought the defense would be 30th this year 29th maybe 28th they got combin with that in a top five offense that’s how you get
The Rams that you’re seeing right now right here on the flip side of this how do you feel about the Lions defense right now way better than I did a few weeks ago right but not you know not overwhelmingly great I still think they’re kind of a bottom eight unit but
They’re not like a bottom three unit and I think that is improvement from what they were kind of hitting in the middle of the Season what has changed about them so like over the last six weeks or so that has made you feel a little bit better
About them uh they overall are I’m I just getting the blitz stats yeah I mean since they’re oh since their bye which perfect both of these teams I think had by weeks right in the middle of the season so you kind of kind of nice first half second half splits
For him the Lions went from blitzing at the 17th highest rate in the first half of the season to the fourth highest rate overall and on third and fourth down they’re blitzing on 35% only behind the wink Martell Giants which is gonna be interesting we’ll note that a second but
That is what the big difference is is rather than just we’re going to be in man coverage and let you know what we got got aen Hudson hopefully you can win it’s like hey let’s take it to him let’s funky it up let’s really create some
Chaos with this defense I think some of the blers have gotten a little better uh like a guy I’ll mention later as one of them but I’ll talk about that in a sec but I think with some of the blitz looks a little bit soundness I’ve seen some
More quarter shell like they did at the beginning of the year okay it doesn’t look like a total train wreck like maybe the middle of season where Justin fields and the Bears are just gashing up up and down field I felt like so let’s dig into the offense to the matchup specifically
Against this Rams offense so when the Rams have the ball in this game what’s the number one thing that you’re looking at one thing is that even though the lions are kind of you know bottom unit defending the Run overall you know bot I say about they middle of the pack um
Against 11 a Personnel or three wide receiver or more looks they are a top 10 unit they’re ninth in defensive success rate rushing success rate against Those runs uh so I’m looking at that because the Rams are an 11 personnel three wide receivers 95% of the time highest in the
League easily but the main run that the the Rams like and this is a huge point of this Rams offense has merged kind of a couple worlds that they’ve gotten into in McBay is they love the Run concept Duo which is a very vertical and at you
Run the lions are the fourth worst defense in terms of EPA defending that run interesting that is it’s it’s they’re pretty good defending what the Rams want to do but that one particular thing they actually the Rams have an advantage so uh the Rams run literally literally run Duo more than anybody 100
Times no one else is I think with 20 of that um so I do think that that will be their kind of main fast ball and they’re willing to do it they will Pound The Rock against the Ravens they Pound The Rock eight straight times they will will
Start the game doing that against these types of defenses that’s the Run game side I’m fascinated to see what the middle of the field passing game looks like yeah because the Rams are just ripping these in Breakers over and over and over again with all of this motion
And all of these shifts where they’re trying to displace linebackers in middle of the field Defenders and that’s how you can get after this Lions team even though a lot of the teams have done it by getting heavier bodies in the field and putting them in base I still think
Even with 11 personnel out there if you’re going to just play with Jack Campbell’s eyes for four quarters I think that’s probably the right way to attack this team and that’s where pukan AA whoever have really made a lot of money this year is in the way that they’ve attacked people on those
Crossers and you know just deep intermediate plays over the middle of the field so I think again that version of who the Rams are lines up decently with where the weaknesses in the Lions defense is it it’s usually when we talk about this allons defense it’s get as
Many linebackers on the field run play action attack that Rams get into 11 personnel but do those types of looks so they have to just find the version but yeah it’s the same kind of plan of attack we’ve seen other teams do this yeah you had a really interesting
Observation when you were watching this Rams offense because we were talking earlier in the season about how much pistol they were using compared to previous years we had never really seen them do it and it’s a wrinkle that again along with the four or five other wrinkles that they’ve had they really
Has really stood out about how this defense is iterating and you have a theory about why they’re using it against certain team that might be relevant in this game yeah the the Rams have used a 96 pistol 96 times on first and second down this year they that’s
The fifth most in the entire NFL they ran it zero times under sha McVey going into this year at first I was like oh maybe pistol stats don’t go back in that time period it’s like nope they do zero zero snaps uh I’ve seen Stafford use
Pistol when he was with the Lions and some of that is Comfort but it’s uh there is an uptick post by week there’s also an uptick and usually when you think of pistol it’s too high the back for his strength and to get into the Run
Game I can go run a z direction of the Run yeah I could run a Zone round on either side because you don’t know which side he’s offset to but I think there’s an uptick in this is when they go against Blitz heavy units like a win Martell defense like I mentioned before
Like a cardinal defense under Nick Ross that does everything just because they have no players but then also like this defense that we’re just talking about the Lions who are one of the most Blitz happy teams like I said the team that they there’s four teams that or three
Teams that Blitz more than the lions in the spack after year it’s Todd BS wink Martell and I forgot the third one but Todd BS wink Martell and another known Blitzer I can’t remember who it is but it’s up there with these guys but it’s when you hide Forest right it Florest
Thank you it’s Brian for yes um yes yes exactly those it’s yeah the Four Horsemen of the blitz The Four Horsemen of the blitz apocalypse yeah Blitz apocalypse oh man what are we two hours in on recording but but when you’re iding the running back strength we’re
Thinking of the run that also against a blitz team it messes with what they want to do the running back of involved in six-man protections that’s the five offensive line and the running back the offensive line the offense is trying to split it in half three- man slide to one
Side the two other offensive linemen the running back the other three-man side so if we if he’s to the left of the quarterback okay we know that’s his side okay boom boom boom we can do this with the blits we can overload this side we
Work away from the back but if he’s in a home position which a neutral position behind the quarterback oh okay he’s neutral all right that doesn’t give away a tendency that what you might do and I think that’s why they do it against the Giants first four snaps pistol pistol pistol
Pistol they just it was a plan and they did 11 times in that game 10 of those plays were successful I think it’s something they lean into again because I just think it m it matters a lot or works a lot for their offense it’s a
Perfect mosm of what the mcy the Rams are doing it’s their shotgun and under Center world that’s the pistol yeah and that’s again you think about the thoughtfulness of the Lions offense that is the thoughtfulness that has been attached to this Rams offense the entire year number one thing you’re looking for
When the Lions have the ball in this game uh the Lions are Going to Pound The Rock so can you stop that run with light boxes I I mean and what you want to do with three-man fronts and funky looks and all the things you want to do can
You stop the run because the lions are going to try and find their ways to do it that’s that’s really gonna be the Crux of it it sounds like Sam Lor is going to try to play in this game which seems crazy it’s the official
Injury it was I think it’s I think it’s a bone bruise and a hyperextended knee it’s almost the exact same injury that Travis Kelce had before week one and so it sounds like he might try to play in this game which is huge because what he is on those explosive plays to the
Middle of the field is a massive part of this recipe for the Lions offense so if he can play and I would probably be a diminished capacity but he’s hugely important to who they are so I think that’s that’s key and then we talk about this all the time can you get pressure
On Jared gof can you make him uncomfortable in the pocket and so that Lions offensive line is fantastic and especially when they’re fully healthy but those guys up front for the Rams those are their best defensive players so can you win some of those one-on ones
Can you get a free runner here and there because of some of those simulated pressures that we’re talking about I think that is the most important cat and mouse game on that side of the ball because that’s really the only time we see the Lions offense feel human is when
You make him uncomfortable back there that’s it it’s get to third down and and then just try and get him to throw a pick on the screen or what the Bears did and just funky up one or two of those third downs and and really get after him
Frank ragnell wasn’t playing that game so that doesn’t help but but really that’s what you have to do and but they do a great job the lines are one of the best protecting units and how they sort everything out so it’s gonna be fascinating what BR Morris trying to
Leads him to the supporting piece you think people should know about coming into this game and this is good and bad but it’s Jack Campbell who’s the Lions linebacker and why I think this is I I’ve I’ve softened The Pick of taking him in the first round I actually wasn’t
As down on as some other people were because there’s no linebackers and there’s that you could find that look like this that can run like this um I think he has played a little better he was pretty bad in the first half year I’ll be very open about that but I do
Think I’m seeing improvement from his play watching him against the Cowboys I was impressed a couple times where he had to be the cover two Tampa 2 guy running down the pipe and he did a great job running with Brandon Cooks and that gives me some optimism that maybe the
Game’s slown down for him a little bit they need him to they needed to because talking again all those moving pieces and all the eye cand are going to give you everything he’s going to have to get fit up on different runs it might be a
Zone might be a du might be play action might be screen so he’s gonna be running Every Which Way But if he can have a game of his life it would really help the L the Lions prospects give me the Rams guards I’m I’m I’m really sticking
To the brand here all those two guys and what they have been for this team this year it’s been the the Rams offense we’ve talked about this the downfield aspect of the offense where it’s a bunch of five seven step drop we really pushing the ball down the field it has
Sunk or Swim sank or swimmed sank or swam the reason that the Rams has offense has been sink or swim at times over the last couple years has been dependent on the pass protection in 2021 when they won the Super Bowl they were phenomenal in pass protection last year
They had one of the worst injury spells we’ve ever seen to a single unit over the course of the season the offense could not function because of their inability to to protect this year they’ve been excellent again and a lot of the pieces are still the same you
Know you have Coleman Shelton his back anderic Jackson who they signed off the street last year as their left tackle the difference is the guards have been very good in pass Pro and the physicality they’ve brought to the Run game has allowed them to live that duo
Life that you were talking about yep and Steve a is a guy that drafted in the second round he’s been excellent for them and they traded for Kevin datson on the eve of the season from the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kevin doson has been unbel believable so those two guys
And the ways that they’ve been acquired and kind of the flavor they give to the offense have been one of the reasons that we’ve seen this version of the Rams team this year y well most shanan guys they want to be more finesse at the line
More athletic the it’s so funny how mcy is like nah MERS I want I want bar barro Brawlers up there it speaks to the evolution though it speaks to the evolution that this team has undergone over the last couple years and why McVey was the coach of the year for both of us
Yep last last one here Monday nights Eagles at bucks similar to talking about if the Bills lost that game if the Eagles lose this game where they were only a three-point favorite on the road to the Bucks this is the end of one of the worst slides worst kind of whiplash
Feelings that I’ve seen from a team in a very long time it’s hard to be more miserable as a fan base and even some of the things coming out of the locker room the press conferences every single bit of Vibes coming off this Eagles team right now I cannot remember for a team
That went to the Super Bowl and then won double digit games the following year yeah just the daily weekly Rumor Mill newspaper story uh we got Jason Kelce walking off on a podcast oh my God it was like but that’s how it feels I mean it just everybody no one
Seems happy we got a a weekly AJ Brown blow up we have a I apologize I was just competitive kind of thing which is like oh that’s what you want firing a defense coordinator uh Midstream it’s just you know trading for safety signing uh guys that we thought
Were going to retire at linebacker uh it’s just it’s it’s just been grasping at straws it felt like this year where last year felt like almost cruise control but cruise control where they’re going 80 in a 60 where there just nothing mattered now it’s like they
Can’t even just get going they it just feels every Drive someone shoots themselves in the foot a ball is dropped a um it’s another tfl it’s a penalty it’s a man downfield some of the details on offense and of course the defense has been truly one of the bottom the offense
Is fine in a lot of ways everything you look at but the defense is a disaster it’s an absolute disaster it’s when you think about the way it’s structured and how much they needed that front to dictate and now that it isn’t you’re really seeing how exposed those guys are
In the back end I know they’re banged up but they just have no answers the linebackers have absolutely no shot you go back and watch that Cardinals game their guys unblocked just not making plays consistently I mean they are getting in their own way over and over
And over again on that side of the ball and it’s become hard to watch and Matt Patricia certainly isn’t helping things no I was just going to say even if it is Personnel it’s one thing but then I mean I’m watching the Cardinals and again that was like a Jonathan Ganon Super
Bowl game but I’m watching the Cardinals and what they’re doing on offense and they were the Cardinals offense who are picking they’re picking fourth this year I don’t think they any metric they’re above you know bottom eight but I do like what your pening is done they’re number they the most efficient rushing
Offense in the league are they yes are they actually James cter buddy yes I’m telling you though I their run G’s great but I I’m watching them they manipulated the Eagles on every snap we’re getting all these tight end looks we’re gonna spread you out we’re going to do this we
Are gonna move this guy in motion oh you guys can’t pass that off because you’re not sure who can communicate on that and again that’s a cardinal team that only won a handful of games that scares me even if it’s going against a bucks offense that could be a little up and
Down but still can hit some big plays but the Eagles defense just doesn’t have any type of fangs right now where you know Jaylen Carter’s even falling off where just they just don’t have that kind of same anger and when the offense isn’t going gang busters every single
Week that’s why they feel this way right now on the other side the Bucks are pretty much in the exact opposite situation no one expected them to be here they took their huge dead money hit this year they spent $4 million on Baker Mayfield thought all right we’ll see
What happens we’re really just kind of waiting the year until we can start building this thing back up again they’re in the playoffs and absolutely could beat this Eagles team based on the way that both of these teams were play yeah they could and not saying like oh
Because the Bucks are just some Juggernaut and everything they are way better than I I ever could have expected especially on offense but yeah they absolutely could they AB so let’s talk about this because the Eagles we know the Eagles we talked about to death this
Bucks team I’m sure a lot of casual fans don’t know much about what about this Bucks team and what about Baker Mayfield has been better or different offensively than you might have expected coming into this season why has this been possible for them where they’re a top eight team in
EPA per dropback right is because if you look at who their best players are you see Mike Evans Chris Godwin and you have a quarterback that now is getting to get into the gun get to get into more of a straight dropback world and he just gets
To be an air raid quarterback and air it out to these guys and is always perfect no but it gives them chances to make plays and you want your best players to have chances to make plays The Run game is still wildly inefficient because yeah no it’s I think probably the worst in
The leaga they’re like a 22% or something like success it’s pretty rough but and we’ll talk about a sec but what can overcome that is they have one of the most explosive pass games in the league so again if you have a defense that is playing better and you have this
Offense that can be that it’s almost similar to the Browns discussion but a different different lenses like but yeah but I think that’s a good that’s a good comparison ironically enough but it’s a high variance World a high volatile volatile world but that kind of fits Baker I don’t know it’s
It’s it reflects the identity of their quarterback and guess what it’s a winning formula for them and for a lot of other teams that were trying to find some situation find some offensive identity they found one that works for them this year in 2023 and they won
Their division you can live with the volatility and Baker throwing the football if he is navigating the pocket in a calm way and that to me feels like the biggest difference calm for him he he looks so much more calm and comfortable stepping up in and navigating that space this year him
Short circuiting and not having this huge reservoir of negative plays it allows the positive plays to shine right like you see the explosives and they’re not weighed down by him taking a bunch of sacks him bailing out of the pocket so removing that I think that’s what
You’ve seen from them is that you see some of the positives in the flashes and it’s not bogged down by what has been a real problem for him him in the pocket against pressure has it has really torn him down over the last couple years and
They just haven’t had to deal with that and I it’s made a huge huge difference absolutely and on the flip side on defense they’ve got some really young exciting pieces and they’ve really come on in the second half of the Season kijah cany Yaya diabi both rookies the
Way that Anan Winfield has played so this mode and this idea from the Bucks of all right we’re going to kind of just hang on and White Knuckle this season let’s see if we can get an influx of young players and just see what it looks
Like when we turn the page they did it like I don’t know how it goes from here but the what the plan they had for this season specifically they did it they pulled off what they were trying to accomplish if you told me before the season that two NFC South coaches got
Fired after the during or after this season Todd Bulls would have been one of them I would have pictured yes I just CA and said they win a division and here we go and that that’s where they’re at um great shout out like Elijah KY their defensive tackle is your classic Gap
Shooting defensive tackle um he had I was looking to the Rookie of the Year stats and he has the most tfls and run the highest tfl and run stuff rate so zero or less or or fewer yards gained by the offense um by any rookie defensive player since 2019 or defens alignment
Since 2019 so yeah it’s like easily it’s like several percentage points high so he is a boomer bus defensive tackle but for an eagles offense that can be Get Off Script and kind of get behind the chains that really matters on those rundowns very quickly I think a couple
Of the things we can learn from the last matchup in week three not a ton we’ll get into some of the game plan stuff in a second the Bucks were banged up in this game no Carlton Davis Jamal Dean got banged up Devin white remember this is the game where he had the
Interception and then limped out of bounds because his groin Wasing him so and so of the elements of their pass defense specifically and the ways that the Eagles could throw the ball in this game Dynamics have changed they have their good players back in the lineup so
Something to keep in mind when you think about the first match up between these teams speaking of that Eagles offense against this bucks defense what is the number one thing you’re looking for with this matchup uh something I think Eagles fans are going to ring my neck because
They’ve heard me talk about this freaking game for two years now uh but that was the Wild Card match up for the 2021 season that was Jaylen Herz and the Eagles versus the Todd Bulls and the Bucks defense um that was it was it still sticks in my mind and Herz running
To the left running to the left running the left trying to get away from a next pressure and next simulated the offense a line just going what the hell hurts this year and this is kind of carried over for the following two years this is
One way even last year is to make the Eagles offense feel volatile I know we keep saying that word but when this Eagles offense was steamroll rolling everybody that was one way to at least try to help it but Eagles is or Herz is the third most spllitz QB this year he’s
18 18th in EPA per dropback just below a no konell he’s 19th in success rate between Desmond Ritter and MC Jones uh this is consistent with last year he was 19th in success rate last year same EPA per dropback number so this is a thing and it’s not that it’s all bad even
Anecdotally it feels like a thing when you watch them their lack of answers when teams Blitz them has been apparent for two years yes they are in a formation that doesn’t involve the tight end so you only can get to certain amount of protections when you do that
Because they don’t threaten that that tight end can be he’s on the ball so when you’re on the ball you can’t move and when you’re on the ball and you’re split out from the formation you can’t get involved either to help out chip help all those types of things and sure
Enough Todd Bulls he loves the Blitz in the LA these last two matchups earlier this season and that wild card matchup he Blitz 22 times this year and 19 times in that wild card match up um negative EPA in both of the games for Herz they just don’t have they have some answers
But the how their offense is built is to not like throw a hot like a Shanahan offense it’s not to have Herz go like Dak Prescott pulling out the protection perfectly we’re gonna side adjust we’re gonna get a guy in a perfect spot one second on the play clock ready go okay
And get into that perfect kind of world they operate in their own world and right now blitzing is the way to kind of throw that world to skew and that’s why I think until they prove it differently bows is going to Blitz them another 20 times because their running backs are
Pouring protection that’s been a thing for several years the offensive line Jason Kelce does a fine job but once in a while they can get gamed up when they interior guys and Herz sometimes just doesn’t have answers outside of go balls and so if I were living in that world
With this defense that’s what I would bet on over and over and over what they have bet on over the last two years in these moments is AJ Brown and Jaylen Herz on those go balls guess what AJ Brown is hurt and jayen Herz has a dislocated finger that he is currently
Dealing with throwing hand yes so this is issue that has been persistent is now potentially compounded with some injury concerns yeah what they did in the first game between these two teams yes this is the other side of this to mitigate this is they ran the out of the ball
They had a 60% rushing success rate which is obnoxious the team the league leader has 45 right now I think it was like it was the highest by I think I think anybody this entire season in a game or one of the high just and that it
Came a week after they did the same thing to the Vikings yes where teams are going to try to Blitz them into the these underwhelming decisions and underwhelming answers that this team has so what are we going to do well just run it down their throats That Remains the
Best option even now 15 weeks later that remains the best option I know we keep saying as Eagles fans but it’s just like this is it like this is what the formula has to be it has to be this is your this year this is your version of success
That’s why they it’s a good thing you have the ability to Pivot I wish a lot of teams would go like holy crap we can run the ball at 45% we can pass pass the ball and score a touchdown on any play but it’s like that’s sometimes their for
They don’t don’t understand their own formula and that’s where the frustrations lay I think it’s it’s that simple on that side of the ball on the other side of the ball I don’t even know really where to start the Bucks the Eagles defense is such a mess I I just
Feel like the Bucks are probably not going to be able to run the ball consistently they haven’t been able to all year but it still feels like with Reed blanket ship banged up Sydney Brown’s probably not going to play in this game and the way that the secondary
Has played for Philadelphia all year if they can hold up the Bucks are going to be able to throw the ball in this game y yep throw the ball and that’s when you play some predictable coverages your Corners are in their 30s uh you know vonte madx is just coming back from
Injury he’s playing right yeah fin yeah he’s finally still consistantly healthy and okay but those guys you know he like I said he’s just coming back from injury the 49ers a few weeks ago gamed him up a couple times they put it on tape so yeah
That’s kind of like okay we have Chris Godwin and and Mike Evans against Asian Corners that are in predictable coverages so without a front that’s dominating games where teams have to get rid of the ball instantly Baker can get 2.75 seconds three seconds as opposed to 1.8 or two
When you get Baker time when he doesn’t feel pressured he can do he was a number one pick for a reason it’s because he was back there at Oklahoma chucking it and when he gets in a rhythm he can he can get a hot as hot as anyone so that’s
Where you’re trying to hopefully he doesn’t get to if you’re an Eagles fan this game is on Monday quick programming note we are going to be recording a reaction pod to this that will be available for you guys on Tuesday morning on Sunday nights we are going to
Be recording One Big Show responding to all of the games so we’re gonna have one reaction show on Sunday night into Monday quick note about that that will not be recorded Live on YouTube because I am going to the Rams Lions game so we will be recording that Audio Only it’ll
Be available to you in your podcast feeds first thing Monday morning so we will have a Sunday night recap into Monday and a Monday Mond night recap into Tuesday coming your way early next week it is going to be one hell of a weekend of football games and that was
One Beast of a show oh man this is this is the only weekend where this happens right six games it’s six games bellich retired juicy six games too yes a lot of stuff to dig to so a lot of stuff to dig into so next week back to a yes it
Really was we will get back to a Humane length show next week when we only have four games to dig into but appreciate you guys hanging out with us all the way through this one we will be back on Monday morning until then appreciate you guys listening we’ll talk to you soon
Enjoy the games Woo
12 Comments
Myles Garrett rushes from the left side 90%+
Watt rushes from the right side 70%+
Stroud struggles against pressure, top 10 defenses and man to man. All strengths of Cleveland.
If the Texans want to win they have to take advantage of some big plays early and puts some points up. Cleveland defense will give up yards/points if you get them early before the defense settles in.
I see Stroud hitting a few deep throws early
I see the Browns hitting 2 big screens
Flaccos hitting those RB chip releases will be important. A lot of talk about his TOs but at least 3+ have been tipped ball, tillmans wrong route, armpunt/end of half. So, not as bad as the boxscore
I see the Browns winning this game
GO PACK GO
Good stuff, Nate's a McClaren fan or just drives one 😉
They do give up 30pts a game on average on the road..
Making the Swifties pay for Peacock to watch the Chiefs is a brilliant business move.
I agree with Tice, the Chiefs run game sucks! When I say that (all season) as a Chiefs fans other Chiefs fans blast me…telling me Pacheco is one of the best RBs in the league…I just sigh.
GREAT show
I'm sure that top-5 Falcons offense will show up any day now!
It is a cool sweatshirt
The best football show on Earth. Thank you guys for the hard work.
Im pulling for Flacco and rhe Browns the whole way. The Browns play D and with Fkacco slnging the ball6
Anything to be made of the Browns giving up about 13 points per game st home and about 30 points per game on the road??