Welcome to Episode 3 of Inside The Canyon. This week we breakdown the 2024 American Express betting board. Join us as we share our picks and insights. You will not want to miss this deep dive. #pgatour #golfbetting #golfpicks
We’re going to talk about hitting bombs 129 to1 is the average winner at the American Express these next two golfers are 90 to1 and 100 to1 let’s hit some freaking bombs hi everybody Welcome to episode three of inside the canyon I’m going to start this week a little bit
Differently and just do a quick recap only because we were holding a Russell Henley ticket and he was one shot off of the playoff he went absolutely INF Fuego on Sunday Saturday night I was thinking to myself is there a real chance and real possibility that Russell Henley can
Win this golf tournament it’s going to take a lot well he gave it a lot he almost got there he broke our heart he should have been in the playoff he missed from four feet on 16 he hit it into the rough on 18 which forced him to
Kind of have to lay up he gave himself a birdie look from about 11 ft and he hammered it past just like he did on 16 Nick Taylor we had it 100 to1 on whole 11 he had basically tied the lead with Russell Henley and here I was thinking
For the back nine we have 100 to one ticket and a 25 to one ticket with Russell Henley and Nick Taylor in our pockets we’re going to get one of these guys maybe they both go to a playoff Nick Taylor couldn’t get really anything going after that he finished tied for
Seven now you know golf season’s back when we’re talking about oh wow we almost had one it was one shot off a playoff but hey folks we’re turning the wheels a little bit we’re sharpening our knives we’re getting close I think we’re putting together some sharp picks I’m
Excited for what’s to come on this channel for those of you that are new to the channel this is a channel where we’re going to be giving picks for PGA Tour tournaments on a weekly basis if you want to dive into custom models and you want to dive into whole BYO
Breakdowns and drone flyovers we’re not doing that here we’re going to get you picks and we’re going to get you winners so if you’re here for that stay a little while subscribe hit the like button this week we’re going to talk a little bit about just a few notes on the course
We’ll get into my model we’ll break down the betting board and then we’ll give you a record five picks for inside the canyon the past two weeks we’ve had four picks this week we have five that is because at the American Express the average odds of a golfer that wins this
Tournament is 129 to1 and let’s get ready to hit some bombs on episode three of inside the canyon and let’s dive in to the American Express anytime you hear somebody talk about the American Express you’re going to hear them reference John ROM calling this an absolute putting contest he’s right it’s a
Putting contest it’s a wedge Fest it’s a birdie Fest call it what you want want the scores are going to be anywhere between 20 underpar to 30 underpar you’re going to have to go low if you want to win here and that’s why we’re focused on birdies are better gained
Opportunities gained Strokes gained on easy courses your horses got to get out and they got to run baby you got to go low fast and you got to continue it up throughout the weekend so as we peel the onion back a little bit on the American Express the previous eight winners at
This event they’ve played in the Sony or the century tournament of Champions this is also not going to be a place where unlike last week we were really focused on course history this week we’re going to be focused on course history a little bit but really we’re going to be much
More focused on are you playing some good golf have you played golf lately how are you hitting it from 50 to 125 yards from 150 to 175 yards are you giving yourself birdie looks are you converting birdy looks so without further Ado let’s dive into the top 10
In my custom model this week coming in at number one it should be to No Surprise and it really should probably be number one in any model when he’s in the golf tournament Scotty chefer number two Patrick Klay number three JT Poston now JT Poston I will guarantee you he’s
Going to be one of the top three most attractive most bet on most played in DraftKings he’s going to be all over every show you listen to and watch this week number four Tom Kim number five Xander schafle number six Sam Ryder betam first round leader number seven
Eric Van royan eight Sun JM nine Eric Cole and number 10 Taylor pendra that’s going to do it for the custom model now let’s go ahead and dive into the betting board so just like at number one in the custom model number one on the betting board none other than Scotty
Cheffer he should absolutely be there he’s playing the best golf of anyone just K the man putt he’s the winner of the players which we know is a comp course he’s first in my model second and first in Opportunities gained in Opportunities gain plus I struggle to bet really any go for this
Number but this is an incredible course fit for Scotty sheffler and Scotty is playing unreal he will be there on Sunday will he be in first second third fourth fifth I don’t know he will be there he’ll finish in the top 10 top seven I just can’t bet him at this
Number not fun enough for me best of luck Scotty Patrick can’t lay 9 to one Patrick lost Strokes on Approach at the century Tournament of Champions he’s a great approach player I’m not sure he’s playing his best golf right now however in the last 36 he’s first in
Course history now if this was last week and we’re talking about course history maybe we’re talking can’t lay and we don’t care about how he’s playing but it’s a new week I hate this number for Patrick Klay I think 9 to one in a field that is extremely strong surprisingly
Strong one might add no thanks Patrick Klay no thanks Patty ice we passing on you this week next Xander at 10 to1 Xander finished tied for third here last year interestingly enough he was 23 to1 last year now if you heard me a second ago he’s 10 to one I understand John ROM
Is not in the field this week but what has Xander shown us to go from 23 to1 to 10 to1 we’re cutting his number in half this seems like the same old Xander to me now there was this saying I heard watching the NFL playoffs this weekend
So for the Detroit Lions same old Lions not the same old Lions this year but that’s not the point Xander we got a new say for you socks same old Xander no thank you he’s not winning the golf tournament this week Sun JM coming in at 20 to1
Sunjay he’s always going to flirt with you a little bit pull you in make you want to bet him give you some stats to get you excited but sunj hasn’t won a golf tournament since 2021 that said he hasn’t finished outside the top 20 here
He’s finished in the top 12 in four of his last five starts here for whatever reason sunjay plays well here but she finishes tied for 12th he’s not winning next Justin Thomas this is the first time we get to see Justin Thomas in action this season I am so excited to
See how he looks I think this is a year Justin Thomas he’s circled it it’s a bounceback year he’s seen the depths he’s seen just what horrible looks like and he knows he’s better than that I absolutely think this is a bounceback year for Justin Thomas and it could be his best year
Yet next Tom Kim coming in at 25 to1 Tom Kim was a bet on the inaugural episode of inside the canyon and he almost was on the third episode of inside the canyon he finished tied for sixth here last year now he was pretty bad off of
The te and at the century when we were on him he lost five Strokes putting he lines up with every stat birdies are better opportunities great gained he plays great on easy courses he’s eighth in good drives gained he’s eighth from 150 to 175 yards he basically fits every category checks
Every box but he hasn’t really shown any signs of Life what did I talk about we need to see some players coming in in good form I’m just not going to get there with Tom Kim this week and I think that will probably save me some money
Next is mmu Lee now minm Lee is a great golfer in fact I think he’s probably going to be in the conversation on Sunday this year at one of the majors that said 25 to1 in this field this number was an absolute head scratcher to
Me he was 17 to1 at the Zozo we’re talking 25 to1 17 to1 a little bit different but the zoo is a much weaker field than this and he’s 25 to one I do think minu is on the rise he played great at the Players last year he was in
The final group we’ve already discussed this as a comp course he destroys the par fives I just can’t get there at this number best of luck to minu I’m excited to back you this year but we’re not backing you here Jason day fresh off the new clothing deal he’s tied for 18th
Here last year he has great history at Saw Grass but not so fast he’s outside the top 100 and birdies are better gained outside the top 100 and opportunities gained that’s not going to get it done this week no thanks Jason day now JT Poston 30 to
One again I said this already JT Poston you will hear about him on the radio the TV show walking to the school whoever at the Country Club people are going to be talking about JT posting this week anybody who watches Golf and listens to podcast they’re going to be betting JT
Posting this week and for that reason we’re not betting JT posting this week it can’t be that obvious however we’ll talk about him briefly because he is going to be a popular topic of conversation last year he was 76 to1 he finished tied for six here last year he
Kind of broke out under the scene here he rates out absolutely incredibly well in almost every stat category that’s why he’s number three in my model he’s top seven in Opportunities gained top five in birdies are better he finished second at Twin Cities I would not be surprised
At all if he’s leading the golf tournament at some point this weekend at some point on Sunday I just can’t get there at 30 to1 and when everyone else is talking about him not this week JT Windham Clark 35 to1 his best finish was 13th here in 2022
Windham has not been hitting the ball all that well when it comes to approach that said Windam could John ROM this place he has a very similar skill set he’s talented he could go and win this golf tournament I just I don’t like the form I’m seeing from him I think it’s a
Pretty good number for Wam Clark a US Open champion who can hit it a long way and play very good golf but we’re not going to get there on Windam this week Tony Fe now 35 to1 Tony fow was another person that I just was like this is a pretty good number for
Tony fenale guess what he was here last year 15 to one we’re getting at 35 to one now Tony fow has not been playing Great Golf totally agree however the TPC Twin Cities is a comp course here fenal has destroyed that he is someone that plays easy
Courses very well hence TPC Twin Cities he plays birdie Fest really well I think you’re getting a great number I’m just not sure where his game is at If he if if he’s going to bounce back this fast I think he could be a great DraftKings
Pivot coming in at 35 to one Sam Burns Bermuda Burns it is Bermuda so he can put himself to a victory I have heard a couple of people talk about the Dell match play as a bit of a comp course that said it’s Pete Dy just like
Boston Country Club winner of the Dell match play I’m not sure his ball striking is going to be in a good enough place right now he seems like a guy who could find the water one too many times and I just am not going to bet a guy
Like that this week same with Ricky fer he’s been horrible off the tea in his last two starts his big misses could find him in the penalty area we’re going to sell Rick this week Eric Cole 35 to one you know what we typically say about Eric Cole you’re
Probably going to be holding the ticket on Sunday day and he’s probably not going to win I sure hope that’s not the case this week with Eric Cole you’ll see why in a few Chris Kirk 40 to1 he’s playing some great golf right now I mean great golf
Right now probably the best Chris Kirk has played in maybe his career it seems like his floor is extremely high he’s been one of the best in the game in terms of approach and with his irons late I just I don’t know that I want to bet Chris Kirk after already winning the
Century Tournament of Champions a couple weeks ago but he’s playing Great Golf I’m just not going to bet him don’t be surprised if he’s there seu Kim 45 to1 he’s won this event before former players champion he’s just not in form I I just can’t get there with SEIU Kim
This week I need to see a little bit more from him Shane Lowry 45 to1 I’d like to see I’d like to see Shane play before I back him in any number I I also haven’t seen Shane Lowry win a golf tournament in a while so show me
Something for Shane for us to put our heart in money and back you no thanks this week now this next one Daniel Burger 45 to1 I mean this this number was mindblowing to me mindblowing this I I would bet every dollar that we’re betting on this tournament and every
Single tournament the rest of the year that Daniel Berger will not go off in this golf tournament at 45 to1 when was the last time we saw Daniel Burger you want me to bet him when we haven’t seen him in over a year no thanks best of luck to you this week
Burger man but we’re not taking a bye to the Good Burger this week Cam Davis now Cam Davis he finished in the top 10 at both the players and Twin Cities last year he finished third here in 2021 he was 46 to won here last year I’d argue he’s coming
In and probably playing a little bit better golf he was great last week Keep Your Eyes On Cam Davis this week Taylor Montgomery bet him first round leader I had him last week he was one shot off of cashing for us at 80 to1 he finished fifth here last year this is
The type of the world he plays Great Golf he’s playing some great golf right now he was 31 to one here last year he’s 55 to one here this year talk about some value I really like him first I really like him first round leader not going to
Bet him out right but absolutely love Taylor Montgomery this week great stat profile now Adam hadwin 55 to one two runnerup finishes here 24th and birdies are better gained if you look at if you look back at the past winners here John R Hudson sord couple others there’s a
Lot of multi- winners here Adam hadwin has two runnerup finishes here just like Russell Henley having his runner up and tied for third last week I think you can do a lot worse than betting Adam hadwin at this golf tournament I would not be surprised at all if he’s there on Sunday
He was really really close to my betting card but no dice for Adam hadwin this week all right that does it for the betting board there’s a lot of golfers in this tournament and as you can see this is a really topheavy golf tournament we’re not going to talk as
Much about some of the longer shots but I do have a few saved for you because like I said activating thumbs we’re getting ready to hit some bombs this week let’s get into your potential picks and potential winners for the 2024 American Express and first up we’re
Breaking the rules you heard me say earlier the last eight winners of this golf tournament played in the century tournament champions or they played in the Sony Open Justin Thomas didn’t either now can Justin Thomas break Trends yes is Justin Thomas the type of golfer where Trends don’t really relate
To him yes has Justin Thomas won multiple Majors yes is Justin Thomas coming off of a horrible season yes all of that said he’s playing some pretty good golf over his last 36 rounds I think he’s turning the ship around I think we’re going to see Justin Thomas have a great
20124 let’s dive into why I bet Justin Thomas this week in the last 30 six rounds he is 10th in Opportunities gained he is seventh in Opportunities gained plus he’s giving himself the looks inside 15 ft and inside 10 fet which we know we need this week in his
Last 36 rounds he is 13th in birdies are better gained meaning he’s converting these close 10 to 15 shots to B birdies he’s fifth in Strokes gained on easy courses Justin Thomas can obliterate a golf course we’ve seen him shoots 59 we’ve seen him shoot 61 60s he’s famous
For going low he’s the winner of The Players Championship he’s not a debutant at this tournament he finished tied for seventh here previously Justin Thomas has all of the makings to go and win this golf tournament I’m absolutely ecstatic to see him play in his first
Tournament of the Year oh and one last thing he’s top 25 in all of the key proximity ranges that we talked about in the previous segments and by the way JT hasn’t even been at his best in approach if JT brings his best to this golf tournament he will run away with this
Thing I love love love JT this week now this next pick this one’s a tough one for me I’m kind of eating my own words here Eric Cole now the past couple of weeks I’ve said hey you’re probably going to be holding a ticket for Eric Cole on Sunday and you’re going
To get a little sweat you’re going to get close but he’s not winning the golf tournament now I think Eric Cole can win this golf tournament his odds are right around people who’ve won golf tournaments who’ve won Majors Eric Cole has done neither of those on the PGA
Tour but I think we might be getting ahead of that he is playing some of the best golf on the PGA tour right now he has not finished outside the top 14 in his last five starts he is first and birdies are better gained you heard me first and birdies are better gained
We’ve already said you’re going to have to shoot 20 under or 30 under he’s first and birdies are better gained he’s 11th in Opportunities gained eighth in Opportunities gained plus which means during those opportunities he’s what he’s first in making them putting it in the hole making birdies he is eighth in
Strokes gained across easy courses I think 35 to1 is maybe not the best value on Eric Cole but does value always cash tickets value doesn’t cash tickets I’m looking at the stats this week and Eric Cole is absolutely someone you should be putting your money behind this week I
Think he will be right there and I think he’s getting used to playing in some of these big tournaments with big golfers do not be surprised if Eric Cole is holding the trophy at the American Express this week our next pick is Cam Davis now Cam Davis is one of the types
Of golfers that you hear a lot of people bet and they don’t win with he has won on the PGA tour he’s a guy where a lot of people like to bet him when it requires distance we don’t really need distance this week that’s all right
There’s a lot of other reasons why I love Cam Davis he’s playing Great Golf right now we talked about earlier we’re going to put ahead form versus course history well Cam Davis is one of the few that has both coming into this week he’s playing great golf but he
Also finished third here in 2021 he is eighth in par five scoring average in 2023 which if you go back and look a lot of the winners here have separated themselves on the par fivs Cam Davis is the type of player he is going to be on the green putting for Eagle
Every single time I like my chances at Cam Davis pulling a couple of those eagle putts and tapping in the majority of them for birdie great make your birdies let’s move on to the next hole he will do that he is 11th from 150 to 175 yards we already said that’s where
About 25% of shots will come from he is 22nd in Strokes gained on easy courses and he is 26 in birdies are better he played great last week he was a first round leader he’s the reason we didn’t cash Taylor Montgomery first round leader I love him this week all right as
I said earlier this is where the fun part begins we’re going to talk about hitting bombs 129 to1 is the average winner at the American Express these next two golfers are 90 to1 and 100 to1 let’s hit some freaking bombs our first one Eric Van royan now we’re with Eric vany
He’s 90 to1 great that’s all fun but do the stats line up the stats absolutely line up for Eric Van royan he is second and birdies are better gained shockingly he is third in Opportunities gain plus and 18th in Opportunities gained Eric Van royan is absolutely dialed he is
Hitting it within the sombrero right now he’s just got to convert them into birdies he’s seventh in Strokes gain to Pro and he is 13th in Strokes gained across the par fivs which we just talked about with Cam Davis he’s going to give himself Eagle looks and he’s going to
Tap them in for birdie if he doesn’t make his Eagles Eric Van royan he has played well here I think he’s kind of coming in under the radar oh and by the way he’s played the Sony he’s played the century he is going to be there this
Week I love Eric Van royan this week now this next pick Aaron Ry I have bet Aon Ry first round leader in many many golf tournaments I’m going to bet him this week first round leader I would not be surprised at all if he’s the first round
Leader the next part is like can you put your hard-earned money behind Aaron Ry to win the PGA Golf Tour event I struggle with that but we’re doing it this week Aaron Ry absolutely raises his Baseline on easy courses but that said what have we talked all about
In this episode and all about this week it’s opportunities gained he is fourth in Opportunities gained we’re betting a guy at 100 to one who is fourth in Opportunities gained he is 10th in Opportunities gain plus he’s fifth in Strokes gained at TPC Saw Grass and 15th
And strokes gained at TPC Twin Cities both comp courses top 15 in both of the comp courses okay now let’s talk about good driver of the ball can they hit the Fairway if they don’t hit the Fairway can they make it to the green good drives gained second for Aaron
Ry now we’ve talked a lot about par fives we’ve got some guys on the betting card already who specialize in par fives so I wanted to say okay let’s look at somebody who can capitalize on the other holes par Forest which you’re going to see more than any
Type of hole on the golf course he’s 15th in power for scoring in 2023 I love the picks this week y’all I think this is the week we’re going to hit a winner we are getting so close last week we were so close I spent the
Most time this week coming up with my plays then both of the weeks combined from the Sony and the century and we were pretty damn close in both of those that could be really good that could be really bad we’ll see maybe I’m overthinking it but I think I’ve put together some great
Analysis I’m excited to have you all along for the ride I hope to see you all back next week for the farmers buckle up it’s going to be a great golf season and let’s hit some winners let’s hit some bombs thank you all so much we’ll see you next week
