Spencer Aguiar and Byron Lindeque preview the 2024 edition of The American Express golf tournament with a first look and research for this week’s PGA TOUR event.
You can read RotoBaller’s full coverage of The American Express (2024) here with Power Rankings, Course Preview, PGA DFS, and golf betting analysis each week:
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Friends and family of the root baller world we are back again for the third episode of 2024 the RO balla show the RO balla PGA show brought to you by ro balla PGA no surprise there so I got my main man Spence on for the American
Express we are going to just go him and I this week it’s I’ve had to share the screen with a few guests with him and I’m really looking forward to picking his Brant today about some fun topics we did some fun stuff last week so Spence
How are you doing this week let’s kick some but let’s have a good one I know it’s been a a bit of a rough start this to the year with the Sony it was it’s been a slow start we were talking about this off air uh a second ago anytime
That you get this new infusion of these corn fairy players and then golfers that have taken months off leading into the start of the year there’s always problems on the back end of the modeling perspective there and um I do think from a personal perspective I’ve probably run
A little bit below low EV in some of these situations if you look at the two placement bets that I’ve had over the first two weeks Eric Cole Bogey’s 18 to miss out on the top 10 on the par five last week Adam Fenson double bogey 18 on
The par five to miss out on the top 20 so you know those two things alone kind of shift this downturn that I’ve had to begin 2024 but uh I think there’s a really interesting topic for us to discuss maybe just at the beginning of the show before we
Here hitting outrights these are your words are very difficult and they are and and I think as a community and as a space you kind of have one of these things where if you look out there in the market people are making handfuls of outrights every single week and it’s you
Can pepper the board and litter it as much as you want but like there has to be first of all rhyme and reason behind what you’re doing and the second thing of it there has to be a proper exposure that comes into play with it so I think
Far too often too many people out there are over building these cards with their exposure and I think when you see the tournament start Chris Kirk 200 to one Grayson Murray 500 to1 how difficult it can be when you have too much exposure being built and I might be a little bit
Of a culprit of that I went very heavy the first week with a Scotty Sheffer topheavy card took a stand there and then I ended up adding a bunch of plays from an inter tournament standpoint on uh Friday night I believe either Thursday or Friday night and none of
Those came in and it just ended up being too much exposure and you can see that with my results like I’m down a little over two units on the air two of those units have come from the outright sector so I I think it needs to be very
Cautious out there for everybody you have to realize that there’s es and flows in that market and it’s why we always talk about on these shows you want to have the majority of your exposure in head-to heads in placements for me right now those have not come in
Which is why I’m down even a little bit further on that number but I think that that’s how you build a bankroll it’s never going to be with those outrights yeah I think a perfect example of that was the fact that I never hit an outright in the first week of the
Century and I still made $318 right because even though $10 of those were to outrights and I think that’s probably a solid way to kind of that’s why I think the breaking 100 article is pretty cool because it helps people understand how to build a card you know like there’s certain people
Like we just had Ian on now that strictly does outrights you know where he’s his thing is outrights whereas you and I I feel a lot more placement matchup it’s a little more boring but man it’s it’s you know how to make that fun is to like maybe parlay a few you
Know I know that’s not like EV at all but if you if you’re looking to like get a little excitement that’s what I do with like the farewell FIV is do like a I’ve been more successful like getting pretty close to betting three ball parlays for round one than than like a
First round leader for example right like it’s just you got to just figure out how to go about trying to make golf exciting and you know what watching a guy at plus 100 like turl Hatton just drive a par four and walk away with the a par it’s it’s
Frustrating right like so outright hitting Grayson Murray I mean you got Keegan Bradley Benny on and if I told you if I told you at the be of a hole that Keegan Bradley and Grayson muray uh Keegan Bradley and Ben an hit 300 yard drives into the first cut and Fairway
And Grayson Murray hit a palm tree okay off the tea in a playoff who wins that hole I mean it’s it’s never Grayson Murray which is what’s shocking that somehow he ends up like and I like the funny thing about that Byron is when he made the putt I was almost 100%
Certain that Ben on was going to miss and maybe there was some outside chance that Keegan could have rolled it in all so like the pressure is off of him and he he thinks that he can make it somehow or whatever the situation but like Ben
On was almost 100% Going to Miss so I don’t know it’s F frustrating Byron like it’s it’s kind of that’s what the outright Market is though it takes one little shift and all of a sudden the great pick that’s a great pick with Ben on that had every chance and every
Opportunity to win it and when they’re sitting on the green and they’re all putting for birdie in that opportunity benon is winning that tournament whatever X perent is it is a massive number probably 90 because he makes those 4ot puts at a 95% clip I went and
Checked his like 4 foot range from last year it’s like 94 point something and and then he goes and it just bricks it it wasn’t even close it was just not even a good part they I kept reading on all the things like I understand the PGA
Tour is trying to be nice about it they’re like oh he just missed he missed the hole by so much it was put it from like 15 25t away it was that bad but it is what it is let’s uh let’s move on to the the AMX yeah and chat about what we
Got going on because this is very intriguing this is a an event that typically has rewarded some really really long shots and I think you know the Twitter sphere is kind of looking like they’re doing some really fun stuff I mean I won’t be surprised if we see
Another triple dig we could start a year off with three triple digit winners this year even though we have Patrick kley Scotty Sheffer sander shafley and sjim Tony fow Tom Kim got all these boys playing in the American Express and it’s going to be a fun week so kind of give
Me your your opinion of of this tournament and how you kind of approach it from a betting perspective I’ve typically like like to lean into DFS a little harder when there’s prams and course rotations because I feel like the game theory is there a bit more betting on people playing with jabronies is
Frustrating and I I feel like it it diminishes any sort of edge that we have out there so do you agree with that kind of take or do you have your own way of approaching this I mean I tend to agree with the take I also would say that
Anytime that you have a three course rotation that’s coming into play that’s going to make the process even more challenging like think how hard it is to figure out and correctly handicap one course every single week for a tournament now you have to split it up into three yes the PGA West Stadium
Course will be played twice you at least know the Sunday round is going to take place there but uh for me I look at venues like this I always try to simplify the process I think the easiest way to do that would be to try to find parallels
Between the three courses without that you’re probably just throwing darts at a board with a that has very little rollover predictability so I looked at Short par 72 courses you’re going to get that at each one of those three scenarios easy scoring conditions they all land under that parameter I think
One of the significant corollary Trends between all three properties would originate from the of scoring on their fourar fives golfers who have demonstrated an edge on those holes have typically been the ones who have catapulted themselves up the leaderboard although I I do think that the essence
And the Crux of what you’re trying to kind of find here is going to be golfers that can provide a total driving return I’m looking for accuracy here maybe not in like the prototypical way that you would view that like I’m trying to find short courses how somebody has
Performed on easyc scoring ition short par 72s look at total driving that way rather than just say who’s the most accurate golfer in the field had some big major deviations in my sheet with that and then some of the proximity returns for me were very important uh
Big increase for me from under 100 yards big increase from 150 to 175 yards I think that you have water that comes into play on a lot of these holes so that kind of goes into that answer but play out of the Short Grass it always produces one of the highest birdie or
Better percentages on tour yearly when you do that so um at least at the base of that answer all three of these courses kind of deliver a very similar blueprint that you’re trying to find here and and um how you want to go about that and how you want to add the
Putting into the mix is another thing because I think that that’s the other key to this equation overseed Bermuda very it’s like this very pure almost carpet-like surface it’s going to be a very little grain to it I think that that’s important because one it either can help
The really quality Putters but I also think there’s something to be said about the poor Putters that maybe come in with their ball striking returns and I’ll get to one of those names later in this show but a golfer that’s been striking the hell out of the ball and now all of a
Sudden you put him on a course like this to where if he does if he is able to turn the putter around the upside is there so there’s a lot of different ways to try to uh to handicap this tournament no I I love all of that and I’m think
I’m I’m on board with everything that you mentioned there I think driving is important and then just there’s unique proximity buckets you especially the par fives they all play in the same kind of length with you know um long irons like 250 plus and out you know I think you
Got to dominate the par fives this week thinking about like Davis Thompson and and John Ram basically from last year those are two beasts on par fives right so got to go there and then I’m I’m going into this week I’ve got three outrights that I’ve bet and it’s a 30
To1 110 to1 and 171 I’m I’m playing it easy I’m going to see what the course offers I’m going to see what the environments like I’m going to try and take advantage of guys that are have already played the stadium course and kind of got that Bugaboo out
Of the way potentially a bit further down the leaderboard and there’s a few leaders at the top that are going to be playing The Stadium Course twice in a row and I know that there’s a benefit maybe playing the stadium twice in a row but there’s also an opportunity that the
First time they played it they can get caught up because there’s potential that you can go into the stadium course and and Skyrock it up the leaderboard it’s scorable but there’s also it’s a double-edged sword right that that particular course has got the most risk and it did play the it’s it’s generally
The highest um scoring average out of the three so that’s how I’m kind of approaching the week I’m really going to try and find The Bookies sneaking and I know it’s it’s not fun from an article perspective I can’t really like you know tell the people what’s going on but I
Feel like that’s going to be how I want to dissect this week and it’s the AMX right like I’m not going to get myself super Overexposed this week I’m not going to have some 15 handicap or walking on my guy’s line while he’s trying to read like an eagle putt right
Like that’s just not what I want so DFS play all the leverage go from there and then see how it goes so that’s basically my kind of vibe for the week and it’s just it’s just going to be how it is right I think are you going to be
Leaning into too many matchups too many placements this week or is there a specific Market you’re looking to attack um in a in an event like this I know from a first round leader perspective it probably gets a little better because you can bet all three different
Courses um and it’s only a third of the field in each one so it’s like a little easier to kind of find guys that can Thrive but I’m I’m curious as to what Market you’re kind of finding you might go to it’s also going to be reduced odds
Across the board there so you’re going to have to put a bigger risk up not that that’s necessarily a negative thing but it’s at least worth noting there um for me it’s always going to be matchups at the end of the day of what I am looking
For yeah maybe we can find an edge on a specific horse like there’s a lot of similarities between all threes but if I can find a slight little Divergence in my model compared to what I think compared to what the books think there may be able to be an advantage that can
Be found there but I took a very similar approach as you did in the outright Market I have a 40 to1 golfer a 50 to1 golfer and I have nobody else on my card and I’m going to either look to add somebody in tournament or you know let’s
See how things are sitting like I I I think one of the big mistakes some people make in the space and this is kind of what I’ve been against always is I hate going into a tournament and believing that you need x amount of units in a particular sector you’re
Looking for Value you’re not trying to whether you want one unit on outrights and everybody does it differently or whatever your total is you’re getting to there are just some tournaments that are not as good as other ones and I don’t want to have the same exposure for a
Tournament like this where you talked about there are so many negative Trends here with a three course rotation the proam nature of these long rounds of the amateurs are whether they step in a line or they make it an eight hour round because they’re all over the map here
Like there’s going to be problems that come into play and those are things that we cannot quantify from a model building perspective and um I don’t think there’s a reason to force it so it’s going to be a very I would assume minimal card I have not seen matchups necessarily at
Most books out in the space I’m curious to see if there are any mistakes that are made and I’m somewhat interested to see what the placement markets look like but even the placement markets it’s the same conversation Byron that you and I have had for the first two weeks there’s
Very little value to be found in any of those areas and and I don’t necessarily want to be putting bad money into play on something just to force a wager like there’s always action to be found it doesn’t need to be forced and and if you
If you find something you like are you going to be laying the same amount of units as you usually do or you going to just kind of lay half call it half a unit if you lay one unit typically is is that going to be applied or you just
Going to keep making sure that you have a solid Edge and that’s you’re going to keep following through on the the way you typically be yeah I’m going to go the second route with it it’s just going to be it when I release a play for like
A matchup I need a three% edge when I release it into a roto baller article so if anything eclipses that 3% Edge it will be bet to to win you know somewhere between a unit or a little bit more I mean if I find a massive Edge somewhere
I’ll I’ll bet it up that’s not a problem there but I’m not necessarily looking to overly attack this card and and have 20 units in play this week like I think at the end of the day it’s very likely as of right now I have I think between my
Two outrights I don’t know a third or a fourth of a unit and it’s not going to get any deeper there and we’ll see what happens in the matchups and the placements but can’t imagine that I go into the first day with much more more than two units in play with everything
Cool yep I’m on the same board there so let’s let’s figure out the same on the top of the board y we’re going to do the the fade someone I know it’s your favorite question in the whole wide world because it really set you up for
Everything but I feel like we did a pretty solid job of picking who didn’t win especially with Grace and Murr coming through but we got sjm Xander Patrick kley and Scotty Sheffer those are four names that are sitting at 21 or less which one do you think is is is the
Least likely of those four to win or if you want to say which one’s the worst value of the four someone that’s looking to bet a favorite potentially talk them at least give them one option to eliminate from their pool so they are the top four players and this is very
Similar answer that I gave last week Byron they’re top four players in my model in projected win Equity um that might sound like a standard answer to be given but that’s not always the case I try to build my own numbers and only on
The back end of it do I really look at to where like the sports books are pricing things but I think for me the least let me phrase it this way I think the worst value on the board and this has been somebody that has just burned
Me over and over and over again would probably be Xander at these 10 to one numbers Alexander I I think he’s a good course fit here there’s a lot to like whether you look at the course history he’s made 35 consecutive Cuts Like There’s Been nobody steadier than him
And I don’t necessarily expect that blowup potential to come into play he’s third in my model for weight at scoring he’s inside of the top 20 for me in pretty much every single thing I’m looking at including weighted Strokes gain total but I think sheffer’s the favorite I think that that price out
There is probably fair I think a similar answer can always be given about Klay that the market is very high on him and you’re always having to get these like 8 to 12 to one returns that are gross that I can’t get to anymore but I guess I can
Understand with him maybe a little bit more so than Xander and then sunjay was too low for me I was really hoping that sunjay was going to be 30 to1 plus and I think this was wishful thinking with everybody even at the number that he’s out there that wants to still bet him
But uh there’s a lot to like about him in my model he was inside the top five of all iterations of how I ran it so I do think they are the four best players in this tournament I think you’re kind of picking and choosing your spots here
But at least according to my model the worst upside for the price would be Xander but I don’t dislike Xander if Xander goes out and wins this tournament I’m not going to be shocked I just can’t get there at the number yeah you know I’ll come off the top Ria and say
Patrick anley Xander shafley and sjm aren’t going to win this tournament I just I I have them in the top four of my model Scotty’s first and the other two other three are the next three I just don’t have any belief that if they find themsel in contention especially what
They’ve showed us the last little while Patrick Cy ad at the F St Judes makes it into the playoff first freaking hole he misses a fairway he hits it in the in the playoff Hall like to me I have PTSD in playoffs right now like every time
I’ve had an outright in the playoff the last while it’s been ass so Xander just put him in a final group and just watch him weather away you know like we saw that at the Sentry again like at a course that he’s thrived at many many times and then sjm like he’s priced
Lower than Tom Kim and Tom Kim since he’s come onto the PGA to has won three times and sj’s he’s he’s beat SJ out in one of them you know like SJ kind of crumbled a bit under the pressure at the Windom when Tom won his first one and it
Just to me none of those three guys they pric this way but maybe most likely to reflect the top five Market to reflect the top 10 Market that’s associated with them but I just don’t see any their wi Equity associated with the odds is is not like comparable right so you know
And the model suggests one thing but like if you just eye test the crap out of it those three to me just don’t have a backbone on a Sunday so um I think also both in agreement that they we may have them inside the top four of our
Model but there’s not value to be found in those prices and that’s really where the concern comes into play because I agree if you directly compare any of those three we could push this pretty far down the board even into like the 30 to 40 to one range here I don’t know if
You necessarily can trust sunjay or whoever or xand or whoever it is on a Sunday if he’s going head-to-head against what whatever name you want to throw out there Sam Burns sure Sam Burns is a good one there yeah like I mean Sam Burns likely is not going to find
Himself in the mix but when he does I I feel like I want him on my card like I feel Faith I have faith in the guy I know he’s gonna do something he’s goingon to show some fight he’s gonna stand up to the plate and swing and to
Me the other the other that we just mentioned are going to go out strike out looking you know that’s just to me how I feel like they play they I don’t know why we threw MLB perspective in there but that’s how it’s going to be so um
Cool glad we figured out I feel a lot safer betting these longer numbers and guys outside with with four three odds at 11 to1 or worse I mean I’m totally okay fading Scotty in this tournament too I mean the guys’s still not making enough puts to really strike fear into
My heart and no one’s going to go to him at 6 to1 anyway right so um let’s talk about some guys I’ll I’ll just just mentioned that I’m I’m playing Tom Kim I feel like this is a great calm course for him he lost one and a half Strokes
On a off the tea last time he played here in the two rounds that were documented finished T6 still Tom key Tom Key’s strength Tom Kim’s strength is accuracy off the te and this kind of a golf course I think is perfect for him so he had that like stretch with the
Waste management in this course where he just kind of lost his driver for a bit I think those are both two courses that really suit his game and I we got a 30 on him this morning you know we throwing that out around in the Discord it was
One of the other guys in there was chatting back and forth with me and we were kind of figuring out some numbers but Tom Kim’s in I feel like he’s going to play well especially at the Shriners I feel like he’s it’s a similar kind of
A course to CPC suin so I know your neck of the woods um and then we were chatting about JT Poston I’m I’m interested to take to hear your take on JT because I felt after betting him at 40 to1 last week we deserved a better number number than 40 to1 this morning
Even though I know he finished sixth or whatever I might just be a price snob and and probably going to look in the mirror on Sunday night again and say you should have just bet the 40 but what is your take on JT Poston and and his odds
Being smaller in a field like this that has what three or four of the top 10 in the world compared last week I love JT posting at the right number I don’t love JT posting at these sub 40 to1 prices so second in my model and expected Strokes gain total I think
That that’s the biggest takeaway that is like the positive return that you would want to see also inside the top 15 for me at comp courses but he has negative uh uh trajectory in my model for upside that’s really never what I want to see when I’m betting some of these prices
Sub 40 to1 um you know I know it almost burned me last week because Russell Henley almost stormed the leaderboard on Sunday but like and same with Poston the same answer could be given to him but like Poston and Henley and some of these guys at these reduced numbers they
Continue to have this negative trajectory for me when trying to find upside my model likes them overall it likes their safety return there’s a lot to like about them but when JT Poston inevitably comes out and finishes in like eighth place and really is never In Contention to win the thing that’s not
What we’re looking for in the outright Market there’s other I can get exposure to him and feel comfortable he’s a top 10 player for me this week I just don’t know if it’s at that price if you were going to put him at 50 to one and you
Would give me that number I’m all in I’ll make the bet there if you could put him in that Adam hadwin sort of range with it but that’s not the returns that we’re having right now he’s being priced as a guy that is in the mid-30s pretty
Much at all books that I see right now and the price has gone down from the 40s at a lot of shops so I just can’t get there at the price it was the same answer I gave last week really like him as a golfer I think one of the big
Things that people continue to talk about with him that data golf number that has him as a top 20 player I think that’s really pushing people to want to bet him every single week and I understand that if you grade out him in your model he’s going to look very good
For you I just think that the problem is we’re talking about win Equity here and that’s something that is a negative for me and that’s a problem to win a tournament no I I agree I mean when you go and start your Saturday round three overp par on a course that’s got perfect
Scoring potential what are we doing like he should have won that tournament had he not had those nine holes right so Evan just asked you what what does your model say about Montgomery so I’ve got this take about Montgomery I’ve said it many times he’s one of the most talented
Golfers there is out there but he’s one of the worst competitors I’ve ever seen he’s extremely talented in golf he’s one of the best Putters we’ve seen on the PJ to in a while he’s an incredible wedge player and he’s got decent length but if you put him in a pressure-cooked
Situation his his swing just melts away and if you go take a look at his splits by round if you just pull every single round and put them layer them on top of each other and just use conditional formatting there’s so much green and it’s so beautiful and then there’s a
Little bit of a like this red flag behind me over here like there’s a solid red box that’s just super distinguishable once per tournament where you just just can’t keep it going and I asked you this question the other day Spenser in DMS how many players on
The PGA tour gain in all four rounds of their of their tournaments you know when they play in a an event that have won the tournament and it’s 75% of the time so someone that’s going to be losing Strokes to the field in one of those
Four rounds yes he’s got that upside all the time to kind of bounce back but he’s always fighting a losing battle against himself so that’s my take on Taylor Montgomery he’s a birdie machine I love him in DFS and and I think he’s playing much better than he used to but I just
Never I will put it out there he’s never going to win a tournament unless it’s when he goes off in the morning and has like a shoot of 60 and had no pressure on him you know like kind like Sam Burns that at the the Charles Schwab so that’s
My my tangent on Taylor Montgomery I’m very firm in that belief and I I will fight anyone that says otherwise I think the problem with Taylor Montgomery just comes down to the off to and approach numbers yes he’s a great putter yes you throw him into a tournament like this to
Where he has the birding making potential and and I guess I would give a very similar answer to where there’s that negative downside when you’re looking for win equity on him and all this birdie making potential that we’ve seen from him it has been baked into
This price like him at 50 to one is not the same as him at 100 to one yeah if he was 100 to one I might be willing to take a shot at him but I I think part of the problem is with the outright Market in general is there they are consistent
Stantly reducing every single golfer that anybody wants to back and they’re doing it at a like Montgomery can go out and win I more of a believer of that than you are Byron but it can’t be at these 50 to1 numbers in this star studded field it like he needs to be 100
To one golfer here just he’s outside the top 100 for me in most of the off the tea numbers he’s outside the top 100 in all the proximity data that I’m looking at he’s great here at these courses that are easy and short uh he propels for me
In all those areas and all the birdie making numbers are phenomenal but um as you said 75% of the time a golfer needs to gain all four days and Montgomery does have a problem that he throws into the mix I would not be shocked if he
Ends up being first round leader and you know we don’t see him on the top of the board after day two or three yeah and our boy Ian over here we will have on the show here shortly but um not shortly tonight shortly this season ask the question Bell and Chris
Kirk at 45 to1 I feel like I mean Chris Kirk to me had always seemed like someone that couldn’t close and then obviously because we have SI he he became freaking the Mets what’s his name you know think of aald this Chapman you know like the guys out there
Throwing $100 heat and just can’t can’t stop the dude and it’s only because we had s the gala in the mix but hey you know like Chris Kirk closed out hard and his ball striking has been fantastic but then the Chris Kirk of all showed up on
Sunday at the Sony when he was ride in the mix again looking to go back to back and F out the F off the wagon you know so I do think that’s a Mis price though spencon I was speaking to you earlier on my show and I’m kind of tempted to go to
Him at 45 to1 because he’s actually showing that he can close out the deal and playing Great Golf better than wam Clark Tony fow Jason day had to say it Sam Burns and JT Posta I feel like he’s even in the small sample size of this year so far he’s playing better than
Them right now I think it’s a fair price at 45 to1 I would agree with you on that answer um I ended up going to Tony finenow at 40 to1 and I went to see Wu Kim at 50 to one Kirk was one of those considerations for me that I eventually
Did not get to but I if I was looking for Value that I had on the board it was Kirk it was uh I mean I guess Fen now I guess technically it was Eric Cole but my model always has them higher than it needs to and I’m not going to get like
Caught up in some of those numbers like I I’ll let him beat me at that price even if my model really likes him and then um yeah I mean it would be as kind of I guess controversial of an answer as this would be I did think Sheffer had
Value at the top but I also think Sheffer should be afford to one golfer in every single field almost yeah I know and the fact that Scotty hasn’t won more it’s just incredible it it doesn’t make any sense man but you know py Chris Cook did on Sunday
Whenever it matters so it’s tough it’s tough scenes but I’m kind of tempted Chris uh Chris Ian Spencer wherever I’m speaking to you I might go to Chris Kirk and and take him at 4521 if I can find a a nice number out there maybe even a
Nice 50 somewhere um if that eventually shows up so speaking of 50s and things of that nature I have a few options that I’ve kind of explored down the 50 Market I said it’s way way further south than the 50 Market I’m going to mention my guy
Adam shank who’s at 90 to1 right now and I grabbed him at 110 this morning put that in the in the RO ball Discord there with Casey Casey AA was him and I were hanging out this morning we were fun like just chilling in bed and had no
Work so it was all good times I didn’t have Wi-Fi at the time but um we were just chatting and and Adam shank is being one of like the most underrated golfers there is like this scoo has been incredible and he’s been on a run of
Results I think I brought him up might have been for the the century but he’s his run of results has been a T9 at the Tour Championship a T6 at the FedEx St Jude a T4 at the johnia a seventh at the rocket mortgage a seventh at the
Memorial and a second at the CH Schwab then he kind of struggled a bit recently but I feel like at any given moment at 90 to1 that kind of a profile like he’s he’s shown that when he gets in the mix he doesn’t quite like Whittle away he
Just doesn’t seem to win if that makes sense there like a difference between not winning and like flaking out and giving up on the on the day right so and he’s 110 to1 so to me that’s a kind of situation that I feel like I can pallet
So I’m kind of curious as to what your thoughts on Adam shank big price for a guy that can get hot like I think that’s the kind of profile you’re looking for for some of those long shot Wagers it’s difficult to take too many stands against any anyone
Who’s going to be over 100 to one and I think there’s some nature of this where everybody’s looking for the long shot and you and I have bet pretty much nothing but I mean I’m going to say everybody’s a long shot on it even with
You know my fenale ticket I have at 40 to1 like we don’t have any short prices this week on our cards and maybe that’s the week where Sheffer goes out and just burns the community and and ends up winning and I think that’s one of the things though it’s like I’m cognizant of
That situation potentially coming to fruid and I would say that you are to an extent too maybe a little bit differently than I’m wording it but it’s just a very minor exposure like you don’t need to get much down to actually get the exposure that you want on shank
There so I I do think that there are some hundred to one golfers in that range that are tangible uh that make a lot of sense to consider there were a handful of names for me that were in that range that possess upside um I decided not to go to anybody deeper than
SEIU but that was also just from a reason that I’m trying trying to keep things very tidy this week like I would rather take a little bit more of an exposure on sewo and the potential that I saw on him and add the extra little
Bit of the units that I put there then go deeper down the board but uh as I keep saying there’s a lot of different ways to try to build a card this week and shank is inside the top 50 of pretty much every single thing that I looked at in my model yeah
I like again it’s not like we betting him at 45 40 to no it’s that’s the thing yeah triple digits I’m fine with that long shot and I feel like there’s a bit of a bit of value there Clint asks what number would you bet AET AET is
Currently 66 6 to1 in the betting Market he’s a very interesting profile and he’s very similar to what we mentioned with like Keith Mitchell with tayor montomery not nearly as much though because he tends to hang around just a bit longer but his iron play is incredibly good and
When his iron play starts whittling away on Sunday because like that’s the thing we’ve seen him in the mix only at Mexico where that that was a resort course this is not quite as resy I would say but he’s he struggles to hang around and now granted he’s young you know that could
Easily quite change he hasn’t had a long enough career for that to be set in stone and he has obviously won on the PGA 12 before but I don’t know if there’s tournaments like with this big of pedigree that he can really shine in so to tell Clint I would say
100 to one that’s the number I was gonna get you know like I feel like that’s for me A’s situation because every time he finds himself in the mix it’s not quite you know what’s going to happen kind of thing right so um especially with a big bigger field more pedigree that like
This than when you won the Bermuda or the Barracuda or something um he always wins tournaments with weird names right the Great Exuma classic and stuff like that but um yeah what why would you say he’s 100 to1 Spence he’d be 101 to me just from the Prof profile that he is in
My model he’s another one of those golfers where I do think the price has been a little bit reduced at this point because of the recent run that we’ve seen um I would be curious to what happens to in my model though when I add in some of the sharp movement that’s
Taking place because I see him already becoming a favorite over Taylor Montgomery and like my model is built in a way that if a player becomes a favorite and receives sharp movement against another player that my model likes it kind of takes a little bit of
Ant jump in my sheet for me so uh the fact that he is becoming a favorite over Montgomery will probably make that better than 100 to one when this closes uh would be my guess but just currently where I have things without that being built in right now it’s 100 I would be
Shocked though even with that answer if this got into I guess betable territory like I see what’s the best number that you see out on him like a 66 66 to one yeah at at B MGM or bet rivers or wherever you can get that at yeah like I
I don’t think he’s going to become a betable commodity for me in those prices like the best he could probably get to even if my model ends up loving the movement would probably be like 80 to one yeah yeah it’s interesting and it’s a great question Clint I like the fact
That you’re asking at what number would you bet you know like not just would you bet AE because at just like we realized with John Ram every golfer has a price right and um Evan in the field yeah said Keith Mitchell should be 6 to1 I completely disagree I would put right
With AE because he also incredible like to be that good of a golf golf ball driver in the field he showed he can he can hang with anyone and then he gets right into the mix on Saturday and then what like he he does this every single
Time like you can see you go pull up his round by round stuff third and fourth rounds when he’s in the mix just it’s just not there and Incredibly talented and I will say I will be betting Keith Mitchell at pretty much whatever number there is is for first round in a private
Capacity I won’t necessarily be putting that out there as a as a patented play but I think like just for some fun loving stuff Keith Mitchell is a definite first round candidate at whatever courts he starts so um your take on Keith Mitchell there Spence I I
Kind of sort of agree with Evan um but I get burned by Keith Mitchell every single week that’s been one of my biggest problems that I’ve run into consistently like my model just loves the ball striking acum that he brings to the table I do kind of think that what’s
His best number right now 100 yeah I mean like even when he was at 80 to one when he opened my model thought he had value at that price so he’s drifted a little bit at books into the hundreds like that would probably be more like if
We’re talking about some of these hund to one golfers that I think have real win Equity like that’s kind of right at the top of my list of a golfer that it’s a cheap shot to take and I will realize that it will probably 100% go wrong
Because it does every single time even when he’s the number one ball striker in the week he still misses the cut um and I’ll just kind of stomach that at the price because I do think that his driving ability is just a massive differentiator that he can provide and
Maybe you are correct that he just doesn’t have whatever that fortitude is to go out and then win the golf tournament and you kind of need that to when we’re talking about outrights here but I think he’s a really good uh DFS play I see him right now at sub three%
Ownership and that’s subject to change we’ll see what happens there but he’s one of the best leverage plays for me on the board absolutely I would deploy Keith Mitchell in a heartbeat if he’s in that in that ownership range and and things like that got one more question
From Ian he’s asking about minwu Lee Spence I I’ll throw this question to you are you gonna be playing minu Le this week in would you consider him this week in an outright capacity or a DFS capacity and if if not or if yes what do
You think in the next few because he’s not in a signature event yet so he’ll be playing quite a few of the next few starts what kind of course do you think suits his skill set the most on the pga2 that will be coming up here in the next little
While I mean it feels like the players right I mean that feels like where he could use some of his scrambling ability um I think any course he has a very interesting profile he’s long off the tea he’s a great par five scorer and he’s a great Scrambler of the golf ball
Um that always feels like a master sort of an answer to that maybe you want to take if he gets into the Masters I don’t know if he’s I guess he’s technically in it right now I have no idea what his situation is because he’s 125th on the FedEx Cup but
He’s been dominating out on the on the DP in in Australia so I’d imagine he’s he’s ready to rock and roll oh no I remember he is in the mar I remember seeing his his tweet he got like a a card from them so um and Evan agrees he’s in Farmers is
Interesting also for all those reasons that I’ve talked about like that would probably be more of the tournament than this one I I also think that he will be much more popular next week um which could potentially take us out of the market of having value because I have
Not seen anybody who wants to bet him he’s going to be very low owned for DFS contest but I I love Min wy’s game like he is a I think he’s a legitimate top 15 player in the world no he’s he’s culating he’s he’s he’s fun you know
Like he’s he’s an Entertainer he brings the heat he brings the energy and Ian’s right about the hype man in him wanting to get behind the hype man wi wo so I totally agree and I think the farmers I really hope he plays like complete crap
This week and we get a decent number next week because I’m gonna pounce on that bad boy if it’s out there because I think that’s a perfect fit for him early on in the season um okay let’s dive into some DFS stuff and kind of play a little a little bit
Of gourmet CR cray situation here above 8K Spence let’s find a gourmet situation where you are kind of looking to to take on a on a price tag that might seem a little little expensive but I you believe that the the golf is worth that value with that price
Tag I’ll go with SEIU Kim I I don’t know where this ownership is trending and I do you have a percentage in front of you right now no I I have no idea but I mean I can only imagine with as a past winner people want to really equate some some
Course history to the situation though it shouldn’t be right that’s where I’m a little bit concerned that some of the early returns that I have might be too low because I only have him at 8% right now I would be shocked if he’s sub 10% but even still if you’re directly
Comparing him to Adam hadwin who I like Adam hadwin this week everybody’s gonna want to go to Adam hadwin and if we can get a situation with SEI Wu where he’s 12 to 14% And Adam hadwin is 20 to 25% I would rather play seiw Kim there there
Are so many situations in my model looking for those upside numbers that he really pops for me number one in my sheet when I added in that extra emphasis from zero to 100 yards plus 150 to 175 inside the top 20 for me in weighted Strokes gain total he is pretty much
Inside the top 40 in any statistic I ran including being seventh and weighted scoring um I’m curious where that ownership ends up going and and I guess as like a 1B to this where I am shocked that he’s as popular in my model as he
Is right now and I just want to give this answer out there one more time because I see that he’s popular but I cannot imagine that he’s gonna be over 15% owned with the way that he’s been putting I still think Tony F out is an interesting candidate I think that the
Ownership in the 9000 is going to go to different areas and if you can tell me that he’s going to be sub 15% I like him at these tournaments where he has a completely different profile now and I don’t know if you’ve noticed this Byron it used to be put him
At a tournament where he can bomb away and that’s where he finds most of his success but now all of a sudden he’s better at these tournaments where he can Club down he’s better at these tournaments that have like these like short Natures to them that he’s not even
Necessarily dominating with his distance um I’m curious to see where that ownership ends up going because he clearly seems popular right now but I tend to think in 24 hours if we were to have this conversation it’s a complete 180 that would have taken place well you
Know who’s around him I feel like JT Poston could could help you know considering JT’s round about the same price in the outright Market as Tony and slightly cheaper in the DFS world I feel like that could help take a bit of ownership from him and then he’s got
Mini above him I think people are gonna they’re going to think that that they’re kind of almost being sneaky playing him because they’ve been watching the DP world to and it’s his first like start on the on the PGA so I think they’re both going to be quite popular and then
I mean we got your boy Jay day there it’s kind of interesting so um Justin Thomas always Garners a bunch of ownership too so that 9k range is full of of sponges that can be easily taken away from that Tony fale love and I agree with you man like he he likes to
Bun driver for someone like him 200 mil per hour ball speed in a Power Ranger outfit and you want to start bunting driver around these golf courses like Let It Go bro like rip that driver like even 190 you know just do it um I just
Want to see him be Tony for a little bit like but anyway there there are tournaments with fenal recently where I’ve seen him on par FES and you go and you look at stat tracker and he’s in the rough like 262 off the T and I just
Cannot understand what and it’s over and over again it’s not like a one-off situation it’s happening over and over again so it’s a it’s an interesting situation and I agree with the comment that just came up like Lowry to me is probably the most price player in in
This tournament I’ve got him I’ve got him ranked 33rd in my model and um when it comes to easy scoring conditions there’s like Shane Lowry is is a f in a perfume Factory in my opinion you know he’s so out of place in a easy birdie
Fest and um you got to give Shane Lowry a wedge in his hand to scramble his way around the golf course you can’t expect Shane lry to roll in birdie off the birdie that is thanks Jim yeah welcome to the party man I love that submission I mean that’s probably the the most
Obvious answer on the board right as I have him 70th I know that sounds well I have him I would not be surpris I think there’s there’s a few things I still need to Tinker with here but I I would personally rank him even lower than that
Too so I agree I would there’s no way I’m moving him up that’s for sure so um Clint says Eric Cole as Gourmet or Craig cray I think he’s fine I think at $8,800 he’s in a he’s in a really good spot right there in this kind of field Elite
Birdie making man this guy just makes birdies like crazy so we’re going to go to a course like this where he’s so good out the rough but even the rough at this venue isn’t like rough you know like it’s it’s this just slightly longer Fairway grass really you know like it’s
This dormant stuff that the only issue with the rough is a tree in the way or something or a mogul right it’s not like the the actual grass is penalizing you for being in it it’s more so of like a geographic iCal awareness that’s around you right so his weakness accuracy and
Distance that’s the only real weakness he has I think he’s gonna I mean and he’s proven that he can overcome that at the Sony you know like he wasn’t playing his best golf but he played pretty nicely considering he that cut Spencer holy cow that drove me nuts man I I
Faded senson I spaded Connors and I um had one other chalky guy that also popped back in because of that cut so my weekend ended immediately it went from being like very good to immediately like I knew I wasn’t G to wasn’t going to take it so um what’s your take on Eric
Call it a venue like this 17 consecutive made Cuts if you look at what he’s produced recently I mean he’s inside the top 15 almost every single week uh inside the top 10 for me in projected bir your better percentage when he does play out of the Fairway I think if he
Can find the short grass here the upside has been proven and and the price is cheap enough like I know he’s going to be popular and that’s certainly something to consider on the back end of this but I still think he’s too cheap like at some point he can’t get that
Overly affected or negatively affected when we’re not talking about a $99,900 golfer we’re talking about a name here at 8,800 that puts him I mean what he’s the 15th player in price on DraftKings like that’s what he’s producing every single week I I actually
Think like I I know like I think most if you were to ask a hundred people that are sharp I think most people would say Eric Cole’s a fade you see it every single week even in the betting Market he’s an underdog every single week to every single golfer that he’s against
But at some point the stats don’t lie and I actually think he is this good so there’s an argument to be made that it’s working against him now at this point that he probably should be more expensive yeah I think he should be too I’ve got him ranked 10th right now so I
Think I could easily you know see a bit of upside tick there too our boy Casey asks if JT is a wait and see or do you think he’s underpriced he’s he’s an interesting candidate I’m assuming you’re speaking about Justin Thomas we already spoke about JT poon for the most part and I
Think I think having a a situation like this where he’s a really good wedge player typically but his I think his biggest strength is around the green play and scrambling and that’s pretty much nullified here you know like I feel like a difficult a bit more difficult core situation for Justin
Thomas is where I want to be deploying him in even though he he tends to play okay on easier courses he’s not like Elite in any any capacity but he hasn’t really been playing all that well for a extended period of time you know he he
Seems to have found a bit of form recently so I’m kind of curious Spence as to what your take is at $9,800 I feel like it’s finally a fair price for him is you know considering the recent form he seems to have found a bit of love but I think people are going
To glom onto that quite hard I can see him being the highest owned guy at 9,000 in the 9,000 range that’s probably the biggest concern for me is that he’s going to be extremely popular I do think he’s properly priced yes and that’s coming from somebody that has been full
Fade of Justin Thomas for like the last six months here so I I thought 9,800 was pretty much exactly where he should have been number one in my model when you look at The Strokes gain total on short par 72s very good in these easy scoring conditions historically I could see this
Being the week where he threatens to win the title or wins the title he’s probably a little bit overpriced in like the low 20 to one range if we’re looking there I would have preferred in the 30s but this feels pretty close to where he should be I
Just wish we were back to the days where he was 5% owned and not potentially 20% owned yeah yeah and the DFS world is sharp man you know like the ownership goes to places where the ownership goes for a reason and trying to Pivot off that is where taking on additional risk
Because people don’t want to take on that risk and that’s why someone’s chalky right so it’s going to be really interesting um let’s dive under the 8K range here and kind of go Gourmet or cray cray in the in the 7K range that’s a full freaking range here we’ve got
Tons and tons of golfers in the 7K range you can dive into the Sixers if you want but is there a particular golfer in the 7K range that you think is is is overpriced Spencer um based off of their price tag versus where you have them as
A as a a what what they can produce for us I can tell you who the most overpriced option is for me I mean we could start there I guess yeah that’s fine um Matt Wallace but that’s not necessarily an uncommon thing that my model does not like
Him mine doesn’t like him nearly as much either so we’re I’ve got him around about 80th right now so um at $7,400 I can see that being a fair price I know you probably don’t want to hear this but I’ve got I’ve got Alex noren sitting at at 62 in the model at
$7,800 um everyone around him’s pretty much 50 or below so oh oh this is such an obvious answer it’s Daniel Burger he’s $88,000 flat and uh we we saw 45 to1 numbers on him to open this morning I understand if if we were living in a time machine and we
Just pretended like the last two years never ever happened 45 to1 would have been a delightful number and of course like this for him but this is a guy that’s been trying to come back for what seems like 12 months now from an injury so I’m really curious as to what your
Take is on on Daniel burer as well this might be a wild statement on this um I would so much if they were the same price and I had to make a bet I would rather bet Daniel Burger than Shane Lowry yes I I understand that but that’s
That’s like comparing a dead horse versus a horse with one leg right like it’s it’s like you’re not really like giving us anything there how about I give you Daniel Berger and someone that’s priced beneath him but like Bo Hustler Hustler’s I like Hustler so that’s I would rather bet Bo Hustler
We’ve seen changes with him to to where the iron play got better at the end of 2023 he has been producing tournament after tournament uh this could be a big year for him I I’m not necessarily goingon to predict that Windam Clark type of a transition to where like he
Became a tournament winner and then a major winner but I wouldn’t be shocked if Hustler kind of produces something that puts him more in that trajectory so yeah with that question I will take Bo hosler but I am not nearly as low on Daniel Burger maybe because I have a
Sickness with Daniel Berger and he is finally back and I’m so excited to see him in a tournament that I’m like oh well I mean the upside is always there with him I have a I have a problem with Daniel burer my very first rot ball
Article was for the Honda Classic and I wrote up Daniel burer to win that tournament he was five shots clear of everybody going into Sunday lost it to Shane Lowry who also got hit with the absolute like he probably should have that like the only tournament Shane
Lowry should have ever won on the PGA tour and he got hit with like the only only him and one other guy were the the two people on the course that could get hit by that Monsoon and it just was unfortunate but um it was it was SE
Strik as tournament to be to ever be so who do you think is an under an underappreciated person yeah let’s let’s dive into the Sixers I feel like somebody in the 6K range is going to be popping up a little bit and I feel like I’m kind of I’m kind of leaning into
Alex aleandro tosy I know he’s quite a popular a COR fery to a guy and um he makes birdies like crazy so we talking dfia I don’t know about you know the upside to win the tournament but at $6,800 this guy makes tons and tons of
Birdies and he’s he was one of the Premier corn fairy tour guys coming into the Sony and kind of made the cut still but I think he scored 10 Showdown points on in round three which is if you think about a bir being five just think about
That so um yeah he scored 10 and it wasn’t great and I was quite invested into him but I will I will lead you to Alejandro Tosi in the 6K yeah I I think he’s gonna be very popular that’s my biggest concern people will go back to him then uh as of right
Now and this is very early in the week he looks to be I think the most popular golfer in the $6,000 range okay well look at me being a square um I still like him but we’ll see obviously ship dependent but um yeah trying to say that we giving
Shane Larry a hard time yeah those were some solid results in but that that’s Europe bro this is like a birdie Fest like this isn’t some difficult course I don’t know what the scores were of those come back to me when you’ve got scores minus 15 and and lower for the winners
And then and then tell me what Shane Larry got up to um Clint back in the chat again asking about Maverick mcneel in the 6K range Spence Maybe maybe that’s a better pivot off of off of toasty I think there’s a lot of intriguing $6,000 golfers and mcne is
Probably one of them I thought he looked I thought he’s looked decent the last couple times he started and if he’s over the injury concerns his pedigree is that of a legitimate golfer that should be in the $7,000 plus range and maybe I always
Hold on to too much of that of like what their potential is in some of these spots and like that’s a very similar answer that I keep giving with Daniel Berger of why I haven’t seen the guy golf in a hundred years and I think like
Okay well Burger is going to come back but mcneel at least has shown a little bit of something these last couple of starts so I think he’s intriguing um I think for me the golfer that I am most enticed to play would probably be Robert McIntyre my model really liked him and
You could argue that there are some downsides to this course that don’t necessarily suit his game but uh there’s a lot for me also like inside the top 25 for weighted Strokes gain total uh inside the top 25 for weighted scoring his ability to produce birdie
From out of the Fairway was inside the top 40 for me I think his ability to avoid bogey on some of these holes because that’s the one interesting concept here is you have to make birdie where it’s like the potentials there on the short par fours if we’re talking
Specifically like the stadium cor here or the par fives on any of the locations I think you also have to avoid bogey in a lot of spots there it’s difficult part 3es there’s a lot of water that comes into play I like him this week he was
The only golfer for me in the $6,000 range that cracked the top 30 in any iteration of how I ran my model I guess the one that I want to throw back to you because I’m curious on your thoughts here and he burned me in season long
Golf last week um bork any thoughts on him yeah I’m I’m GNA be going back to him I had him on my outride card so um at 125 to1 I’ll I’ll gladly you know Resort back to him in DFS I feel like this course I felt like that was a
Really good course for him but maybe he just needed his first first crack at PJ Tour golf and and off we go but um there’s a the thing about this corn fairy t a crop of players and and D World guys is there’s guys that play
Well in Europe but man they come over here and and it’s just not the same right so Tommy fatwood for example the can win anywhere but on America soil kind of thing so um I love I love him I’m going to be going back to him he’s
One of my favorite of the bunch and I feel like this course kind of goes he fits that Andrew Landry pop gun kind of mold he’s not a very lengthy golfer off the tea but he’s an exceptional iron and putter you know like that’s his strengths from what I can tell and
Despite missing the the the cut last week I think we’re going to get three tournament rounds from him and can expect him to do some nice stuff someone that I do believe will prosper from the three rounds that you get versus the normal two is Chan Kim I played Chan Kim
He’s one of my guys I wrote up for round two Showdown went out and and scored 50 points remember toasty only scored 10 in round three so Chan Kim balls out in round two and then if he does that he got he’s got round three again so if he
Gets off to a slow start this is kind of the the way that Chan Kim can maybe find himself breaking through a little bit in into the top 20 or top 10 on this on this course and getting that extra round I think it’s going to be pretty clutch
At $6,200 so he’s he’s definitely someone I’ll be looking to be throwing a few percentages on in my player pool I mean I know my co-host a better golf po Nick brwi will love to hear that but I agree he’s a high-end birdie maker who’s very strong off the te gonna be Boomer
Bust that’s to be expected down in this range but I think you bring up an interesting point that you do get three rounds of golf you know if Chan can go out during one of those days and give you one of those seven eight under sort
Of rounds that can be enough to make the final day and Propel himself up the leaderboard that way so I don’t dislike that whatsoever I I think for me though like for the most part I’m looking through the $6,000 range right now there are essentially four players for me who
Crack the top 50 like that’s a bit of a problem at the end of the day like I do think that the pricing is pretty solid at the top which just naturally makes the $66,000 range a little bit worse Yeah Yeah It’s Tricky um one more guy I want to mention though Troy
Merritt I kind of like him uh I know that you know the P if you’re GNA be lying relying on a putter to get a da it’s going to be tricky but I I like where his game’s moving you know like the guy chipped in three times over the
Weekend at the Sony and seemed like his his um his game’s kind of moving in the right direction he $6,500 you know um if anyone looking at his long-term stats it’s going to be a little bit of a turnoff I do think his game has has morphed into the Troy of
Old to a degree you know I think he’s still trying to find his confidence when he really gets close to the top of the leaderboard but he hasn’t been there for a while because he been playing that bad of golf so he finally found himself with
A bit of Sunday nerves on Sunday and and um had a bunch of stuff going on already don’t mind getting into Troy merits um ownership there at all so um and then Jake nap another corn fairy tour guy at $6800 I don’t know I’m just rattling off
Guys you in the 68s but um I’m a big fan of the Corn fairy tour guys you know I write that article and it’s kind of looking at Grayson Murray’s profile that’s exactly how he he medium and hard courses are his thing it only played to
Minus 16 wasn’t in the 20s like we’d expected and he scrambled his face off he scrambled his face off the whole weekend and that’s what he did on the corn Fury tour and he won he won twice towards the second half that season so we should have seen it coming
It’s not like a shock you know if you look back at what was going on but prior to the event I don’t think we could ever expected that but yeah no I I think the like the rattling off of the names is kind of the best way to look at this
Section because there are playable Commodities I don’t know if any of them are like necessarily popping off the page on either one of our models but like whether it’s a bork a mcne a McIntyre a Harry Hall um I think long might be somewhat interesting I don’t know where the
Popularity goes with the course history that he has here um Troy meit was another name that had value for me Zack Blair I guess technically had value but these are like Fringe cut makers one way or another for the most part yeah it’s interesting stuff I I’m really curious
To see how the week unfolds I’m I’m excited I like these kind of events from a DFS perspective because I feel like you can really get weird um I don’t like betting on them you know so I I think we’re GNA just stress that point one
More time and and let the people know that but our into the show I feel like this was was fun just having you to myself for the first time Spencer looking forward to to carrying on these with um with you for the rest of the
Year and for as long as we do them the chat was awesome I really enjoyed the chat you know the guys were phenomenal so thank you guys for being in there really appreciate the questions it really helps us that we want to provide you with the
Show so if you bring us questions we’ll go away from the stuff that we got prepared and we’ll answer the stuff that you have and try and mold it to however we see fit so we really appreciate that interaction and this is the Roto baller
PGA show we here for Roto Ballers so if you are one of them and or or aren’t be sure to use code T off or code Maniac for whichever person you want to support and get yourself 10% off our premium stuff it’s our premium package is it’s
Loaded right now Spence and it’s got your stuff it’s got my stuff it’s got both Joe’s stuff you know it’s got the tools it’s got the Discord that we put all our our picks in before lines move before you move the lines so you know um we’re really looking to grow this
Community and we want you guys to be a part of it and thank you all for being in the chat Spence tell the people what’s cooking um just let us know yeah we have so many great things as you mentioned at Roto baller this year between Joe coming on
To the team and you know preferred lines becoming a central point of website to all the work that’s released from Joe nicely and Ian and Matt Miller and the two of us I think you said it best like our goal is to provide content for everybody out there and we’re trying to
Help everybody win money at the end of the day one of the things with a lot of the matchups I give as you mentioned you will get the best of the number whether or not the BET wins it didn’t win last week you know that’s another story to be
Had there but closing line value is very important I know that’s kind of the overrated thing that everybody always talks about but if you are speeding lines over the course of time you will be winning money you might not win that exact bet that you make but uh you know
Whether you use the code Maniac you use the code T off you use the code nice I don’t know who else’s codes are out there but like it’s not about that for us like we truly are just trying to create a community here for everybody
That wants to be a part of it and and that’s something that we’re really trying hard in 20124 so uh if you are considering signing up we hope you do you can join in the Discord with us we’re always having fun in there and uh if you ever have any questions
Regardless of the situation you and I are not the two people that would not answer questions for people if they are not signed up always feel free to ask a question I’m always there to answer for anybody exactly um you know we we’ll let you come onto the doorstep and we’ll
We’ll answer your questions right there and if you want to come into the house you’re more than welcome to so we really appreciate everyone for being in the show um the chat as always like we said thank you so much we really really appreciate that hit H that like button
On the way out and um be sure to catch us next week 9:30 Eastern every week on a Monday um for this awesome show so we’ll catch you guys next time have a great week
